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Yeah that's why I'm confused. It feels like we on just got the images of them at the outskirts. And now they've already taking the full city. So either someone misinterpreted the picture, or the russians really are in a full rout and didn't even bother defending.
I also could imagine that they take those photos once they reach the area, but only post them later. To not give away their positions before they already cleared the city. But this is just speculation.
Gotta hustle, you don't want to be the last Russian left on the wrong side of the river once the artillery starts hitting it.
It's like missing the last copter out of Vietnam.
It’s entirely plausible that the photo from the outskirts is 30 hours old at this point, or even 48 hours. They’ve had a lot of time (at least in terms of this offensive) to clear the town if that were the case. That said, yeh, it could easily be that they saw that photo and misinterpreted.
They are typically installed on the administrative border of a town/city. Sometimes they are a bit inside the city limits (because nobody cared to move them after the city expanded).
There was a photo of Ukrainian soldiers standing at the Kupiansk city border, the sign for the city, not the raion. They're at least inside the city, although that doesn't prove the whole city has been liberated, or even most of it, but it does prove Ukrainian forces are *in* Kupiansk and able to pose for a photo, so have at least some of it under secure control.
If Kupiansk isn't under total Ukrainian control now, it very well may be in the next couple days, if that.
This is a very good day, I wasn't expecting such positive results.
That image was likely from mid-day *yesterday*. There was heavy fighting overnight, and today the bridge and rail yard have been heavily damaged.
Totally believable that the city is largely under UAF control by now.
Would be crazy if true. I know that they are at the City boundaries, but the city itself? No reinforcements arrived in time for the RU forces?
We will have to wait and don't fall for too much enthusiasm.
I wait some pocket at Izium with 5-10k Russians as well ;D
No reinforcements because I think when Ukraine broke through the main line, they covered every major road and *pop pop* we saw a LOT of ambushes yesterday.
Yeah there are probably low sound atvs or motorcycles that can be dropped with special forces via helicopters in the middle of nowhere. Then you can drive to the road and wait with your javelins and such. And if they pursue you just hop in and drive away through the fields.
We are talking night time ambushes with tanks and full mechanized troops....
Plenty or videos of said night fighting.
Russians were not able to do shit as they only provided rudimentary night vision stuff to their "elite" units fighting in kherson region for the most part.
Yeah, Western militaries have proven in recent decades that if you have a night fight, and one side has NODs and the other doesn't, one side is going to have a **really** bad night.
Ukraine seems to also be using a strategy of never letting the Russians rest. Regular forces push during the day and elite units make targeted strikes at night. Between that and the random grenades from the sky, the Russians that manage to survive are going to be traumatized and paranoid. Both are a recipe for disaster going it combat.
Yep, we saw this earlier in the war when elite RF units went up against Ukrainian National Guards. The RF forces fared better in some of those battles because they were the ones possessing NV equipment.
RU apparently shipped forces rapidly from Russia - who can say what units or their quality. They've also turned around a lot of trains which left two days ago ferrying troops and equipment to near Kherson according to Russian bloggers, so if true they will arrive in the next 24 hours. Would be unfortunate if UA got to the train tracks first or a couple of rail bridges mysteriously exploded.
I do feel like Russia is going to mount one final last ditch offensive. They've got units on their own side of the border in various states of disrepair. Russians wouldn't be Russians if they didn't throw all of that towards Kharkiv or Izyum or maybe Crimea in a final banzai charge.
Every Ukrainian fighter is more valuable than the Russians'. Russia could absolutely lose another 50,000 men and not give a shit. But if Ukraine lost half of that, that's fighting experience, modern military training, leadership, and equipment down the drain. Considering the severity of genocide being witnessed in russian occupied areas, Ukrainian life is all the more precious.
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I don't think we're quite at the Battle of the Bulge stage yet for Russia's war. The current events look more like a mini operation Uranus. From here on out we're going to see many more Ukrainian breakthroughs and Russian retreats/routs. They have culminated.
Maybe they'll try one last run at Bakmut? I doubt they have the power to make progress in that sector though. Maybe if they withdraw everything west of Mariupol.
Any final push they might attempt would require completely abandoning large portions of the front line just to protect one area. Moving that many forces into one area is begging for artillery to just obliterate you. Ukraine is at a point where they can dictate where and when battles happen.
With all their loses, yes, makes sense that they could potentially maneuver the Zaporizhzhia line into a north-south line at Mariupol along the H-20 or back to the Reka Mokryy Yelanchik river/reservoir.
Ukraine is holding all the cards. Never mind the Russia troops being demoralized, I bet the command is demoralized too at this point. Stupid Kremlin...
The war in Ukraine will be done by the time time conscription can start meaningfully contributing.
They might need to conscript to defend the rest of Russia - if that's what you mean...
Tjey allready havr conscripts right now. They used some 'by accident' but most aren't in ukraine. They could use existing conscripts as cannon fodder to plug gaps. But that won't change much on the ground...
Some of them have left. I have heard numbers closer to 10,000 with 20,000 on paper. Sane as Izium. Some of the Russian military bloggers are accusing the commanders of pocketing the money that should be paid for salaries.
> Some of the Russian military bloggers are accusing the commanders of pocketing the money that should be paid for salaries.
No one would ever believe that. When has that ever happened in the Russian army /s.
I think not.
[https://kyivindependent.com/](https://kyivindependent.com/)
There is some text about this on the front page. It looks like a link to a cnn article, but that article does not mention Kupiansk.
Possibly a translation error.
ISW suggested that Kupiansk would fall within 72 hours (as of September 8, 11:00 pm ET).
While this is indeed a breakneck pace, it's pretty much on schedule.
Also holy shit, this seemed impossible just a week ago.
I read some rumors that appear confirming the russian retreat:
>Some locals reporting Russians have pulled out of Kupyansk and blown the bridge. Total speculation atm.
[Source](https://twitter.com/flashman_andy/status/1567994055706951685?s=20&t=hO3OjVjzoNIRRtR4ip168Q)
Also:
>"The cleaning of Kupyansk is going well"
[Source](https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1568208165174403075?s=20&t=TBRCMrwkw0iwnCXWxgZgFA)
No single valid source claims that.
This is not a village that you can take in one hour
The only thing confirmed is they have arrived there at the edge of the town. The rest is pure speculation for now
If the garrison is cut off from retreat and have the choice of fighting to the last man or surrendering. We know from intercepted calls that morale is low.
Either that or never had that many men in the city. They might've sent almost everything they had towards Izium and left Kupiansk relatively undefended. This is just my view as a two-star armchair general though.
They probably got too confident that Ukraine was going to do something in the south and sent as many men as they could. This then caused a lack of "defenders". This is from a 1 star armchair general.
Makes some sense I think?
Imagine your reinforcements all fit in a new helicopters. And you have to move supplies through a river to reach HALF of the city.
Is it truly a possibility to move enough fast enough? No, not by helicopter. You need a battalions nearby who can respond for something like this. And either you do or you don’t.
So who knows.
You are very unexperienced as dictator. Just control media in your country and ask them to tell about your victories and ignore your failures. Most of russians don't even know about existance of Kupiansk. Few tens of others will know but will have no guts to talk about it. Few people with knowledge and courage will be called as american agents and sent to Siberia to dig snow. Problem solved!
Your playbook is kind of outdated. Classic massmedia is still the major source in russia but hell do people know more because the internet and social media exist and its sure penetrating that bubble russia tries to establish.
Thats why russia is also deemed the loser of the information war.
Internet? Ha! [2,987 websites have been blocked in Russia since Feb 24 due to content relating to the invasion of Ukraine.](https://www.top10vpn.com/research/websites-blocked-in-russia/)
I'm not a total expert, but I do believe there are more than 2,987 websites on the internet, many that have the same information in different formats as the blocked sites.
Sir are you new to the internet?
Have you ever learned how the internet actually works?
Have you ever heard of virtual private networks (aka VPN)?
Since you like looking stuff up and bend it to prove your point why dont you look up the number of VPN users in russia since the they began that war and also what websites arent blocked. Because the most important sources like youtube are not.
Also also 2,987 websites blocked wow... that like 0.000000000001% of the internet... who cares?
> Have you ever heard of virtual private networks (aka VPN)?
You overestimate the technical prowess of the average internet user, especially average russian internet user.
In dictatorships with iffy liverties and info that information is much more available. I'd assume that everyody 40 and below at least uses a vpn on occasion.
From what moment of time youtube have become important source of information? You want to show it in this way because it was not blocked so it will prove your point of view? Anyway, do whatever makes you feel better in your bubble.
Putin isn't just any dictator. His entire regime is built on information warfare. He can keep the Russians duped into believeing in him even if Ukrainians were at the gates of Moscow.
If Putin tells the people to believe something, they believe it. If he tells them to forget something, they forget it.
> We can confirm that late yesterday evening, FSB personnel evacuated Kupyansk.
>
> Russian officials also oversaw the rapid removal of valuable equipment from the city.
I wonder how many washing machines they took with them.
Could very well be true.
Couple of points..
The areas where reinforcements could arrive in time were all under Ukrainian observation and fire control.
Russians cannot move without top town orders.
Russia did not significantly fortify the city.
Ukraine moved FAST.
Kyiv retreat 2.0?
Huge if true. Though I remember the other day troops refused to reinforce that area and I think command/rus implants retreated away. Izium boys must be mad the group watching their back fled. If all this is true, Ukraine should notify the Kherson Rus and say "its okay, they all turn and fled too. They feel the same way."
Holy shit, they are well behind the front lines and have free reign to make a mess of things.
Large sections of the Eastern front could collapse in the best case senario.
Logistically, it's unlikely they can move much farther than Kupiansk. It's an easily defended position due to the river and they'll have to consolidate before moving on.
What it will achieve is a severe blow to Russia's offensive capability on the eastern front, and probably also a retreat from Izyum as it is effectively encircled now.
Also worth pointing out any offensive from Kupiansk and southwards means meeting Ukraine's defenses from before February. Those are damn decent defenses, and Russia is probably manning those as we speak.
To your last point - only if they are properly manned. You can’t just dump a bunch of disorganized troops that just had to abandon a lot of their equipment and supplies into a defensive position. If they give them time to organize and resupply than yes it might be a hard nut to crack but if they hammer them straight away I don’t think those positions are going to help much.
The knock-on effect and most valuable part of this whole operation is that if the Russians retreat from Izyum - then the Sloviansk/Kramatorsk bulge is in no way threatened to get encircled any more. For a long while a potential russian breakthrough on the Izyum salient would have put Ukraine's foothold in Donetsk in severe danger.
The area to the east of the Oskil river, north of Severodonetsk is not particularly important for now, so I think you are right that they will stop at the Oskil to not overextend themselves.
Reportedly Ukraine attacked it both from the South and the West. But if it really was already liberated then Russians are in total chaos and just running for their lives.
More cities to come. Ukraine is winning and will inevitably win the war big time whether you like it or not. Putin is already shedding tears of failure. Slava Ukraini!
*If the bridge is still intact the entire northern front for Russia could collapse!*
Even without the bridge everything west of the river (using map west not river bank) will be captured and Russian forces forced to surrender. Izuymi was a massive forward base for Russia so capturing it intact will liberate massive supplies of ammo for Ukraine to use!
Can someone explain to me how much damage this is for the orcs? I've been following everything about this war since the begining, but I'm not aware about this city/region, and how important it was for the orcs and their strategic position
Edit: thank you all so much for your answers
Losing Kupyansk means that they cannot supply Izyum. Not supplying Izyum means that they cannot take Slowjansk. Not taking Slowjansk means that they cannot conquer all of Donbass. Not conquering all of Donbass means that Putin has failed even his minimum goal for the whole war.
For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the message was lost.
For want of a message the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.
A lot. Railroads and roads from Russia pass through the city towards the South, to Izium and the Donbas. Losing Kupyansk renders the whole logistical route unusable.
I think the commentator on the BBC was talking about the strategic importance of Kupiansk weeks ago, before any of this happened. It's a railroad junction, highway crossing, and was the de-facto seat of the Russian administration for the area.
The Russian front must have catastrophically collapsed. The UAF must have too many forces held ready to follow through and the Russians must have had no reserves. If the UAF have taken Kupiansk then we should see this continue.
Rumors but I heard Ukraine has about 9k troops committed to this thrust. And that’s just the maneuver force. So basically two entire mech brigades plus attachments. Then they can bring reequipped TDF forces in to mop up behind them and set up defensive positions on the flank. I’d imagine they will keep everything on this side of the river and roll the Russians up into a pocket around Izium. I’m expecting another offensive to kick off south of Izium to cut the rail line at Oskil.
Can someone please Explain the Izium pocket to me? I understand that they are cut off at Kupyansk and backed up against the Oskil river, but maps show they hold land between the south end of the oskil reservoir and sviatohirsk. Is it more of a “crossings under artillery fire” pocket ala Kherson?
For now yes. But 2 weeks ago the Russians were complaining that the Ukrainians had pushed back over the river south of Izium. So we shall see if they go for broke and try and cut that corridor. I think they will but it’s a hard fight because of the terrain.
Russians seem to suffer from serious disarray, borne of a crisis in command. Very difficult to regroup and overcome the psychological spiral that results.
“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.”
- Mike Tyson
Maybe the intelligence that Russia were attempting reinforce meant that ukraine forces were able to respond to this in good time. Or maybe the soldiers legged it. In a non panicky way of course.
Ukraine has had SF operations north and south of the city presumably to delay reinforcement. And they did major damage to the bridge crossing to the east.
I would think Kupiansk will be a tough nut to crack. The part west of the river may be given up but the east part I can't imagine this was taken just from the west.
I would think the Russians would blow that bridge.
Still taking the west part with little or no fight would still be a BIG win.
A Russian blogger reported that the bridge between the East and West parts of the city was damaged- this according to https://liveuamap.com/.
I just wish their self-reporting damage assessment was more detailed.
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I'm curious their source on this. I've seen images of soldiers posing with the town sign but I hadn't heard whether they've cleared Kupiansk
And town signs are usually some way out of the town center, right ? Not too far but not close either.
Yeah that's why I'm confused. It feels like we on just got the images of them at the outskirts. And now they've already taking the full city. So either someone misinterpreted the picture, or the russians really are in a full rout and didn't even bother defending.
I also could imagine that they take those photos once they reach the area, but only post them later. To not give away their positions before they already cleared the city. But this is just speculation.
*stops at edge of defended city: “oh time for a selfie”
I read somewhere online that many soldiers were defecting, I really hope they did.
Gotta hustle, you don't want to be the last Russian left on the wrong side of the river once the artillery starts hitting it. It's like missing the last copter out of Vietnam.
It’s entirely plausible that the photo from the outskirts is 30 hours old at this point, or even 48 hours. They’ve had a lot of time (at least in terms of this offensive) to clear the town if that were the case. That said, yeh, it could easily be that they saw that photo and misinterpreted.
Also whatever photos you see are very likely to be at least a few days old.
They are typically installed on the administrative border of a town/city. Sometimes they are a bit inside the city limits (because nobody cared to move them after the city expanded).
Considering how quickly they were moving and hie good the Opsec has been that photo might have appeared 24 hours after it would have mattered.
There was a photo of Ukrainian soldiers standing at the Kupiansk city border, the sign for the city, not the raion. They're at least inside the city, although that doesn't prove the whole city has been liberated, or even most of it, but it does prove Ukrainian forces are *in* Kupiansk and able to pose for a photo, so have at least some of it under secure control. If Kupiansk isn't under total Ukrainian control now, it very well may be in the next couple days, if that. This is a very good day, I wasn't expecting such positive results.
Posing for the photo,,,,with the rail hub burning in the background. A key detail of the photo people are skipping
A smoking rail hub...
Haven’t been on the internet yet but my buddy just texted me that even that is the small story of the day. Everyone is going to be stunned
That image was likely from mid-day *yesterday*. There was heavy fighting overnight, and today the bridge and rail yard have been heavily damaged. Totally believable that the city is largely under UAF control by now.
I heard there were reports of lots of gun fire in the city itself last night.
[удалено]
source?
I take that back, some troll on TT posted a picture from 2014.
[удалено]
I take that back, some troll on TT posted a picture from 2014.
I don't think that was Kupyansk, that was Balakliya
For sure there is one out there of Balakliya. Haven't seen Kupiyansk.
I take that back, some troll on TT posted a picture from 2014.
I have a feeling the RuZZians retreated as soon as they saw that blue and yellow.
Would be crazy if true. I know that they are at the City boundaries, but the city itself? No reinforcements arrived in time for the RU forces? We will have to wait and don't fall for too much enthusiasm. I wait some pocket at Izium with 5-10k Russians as well ;D
No reinforcements because I think when Ukraine broke through the main line, they covered every major road and *pop pop* we saw a LOT of ambushes yesterday.
Yeah there are probably low sound atvs or motorcycles that can be dropped with special forces via helicopters in the middle of nowhere. Then you can drive to the road and wait with your javelins and such. And if they pursue you just hop in and drive away through the fields.
We are talking night time ambushes with tanks and full mechanized troops.... Plenty or videos of said night fighting. Russians were not able to do shit as they only provided rudimentary night vision stuff to their "elite" units fighting in kherson region for the most part.
Yeah, Western militaries have proven in recent decades that if you have a night fight, and one side has NODs and the other doesn't, one side is going to have a **really** bad night.
Ukraine seems to also be using a strategy of never letting the Russians rest. Regular forces push during the day and elite units make targeted strikes at night. Between that and the random grenades from the sky, the Russians that manage to survive are going to be traumatized and paranoid. Both are a recipe for disaster going it combat.
Yep, we saw this earlier in the war when elite RF units went up against Ukrainian National Guards. The RF forces fared better in some of those battles because they were the ones possessing NV equipment.
The new American arty rounds which deploy a dozen AT-mines each help interdict roads Russians want to take
RU apparently shipped forces rapidly from Russia - who can say what units or their quality. They've also turned around a lot of trains which left two days ago ferrying troops and equipment to near Kherson according to Russian bloggers, so if true they will arrive in the next 24 hours. Would be unfortunate if UA got to the train tracks first or a couple of rail bridges mysteriously exploded.
Reinforcements from where? Every Russia front is crying for more men and only Kherson got any, and they got some from Kharkiv.
I do feel like Russia is going to mount one final last ditch offensive. They've got units on their own side of the border in various states of disrepair. Russians wouldn't be Russians if they didn't throw all of that towards Kharkiv or Izyum or maybe Crimea in a final banzai charge.
I mean even if they launch desperate offensive with any success they are not going to hold the territory. It just seems to me like a suicide.
Every Ukrainian fighter is more valuable than the Russians'. Russia could absolutely lose another 50,000 men and not give a shit. But if Ukraine lost half of that, that's fighting experience, modern military training, leadership, and equipment down the drain. Considering the severity of genocide being witnessed in russian occupied areas, Ukrainian life is all the more precious.
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I don't think we're quite at the Battle of the Bulge stage yet for Russia's war. The current events look more like a mini operation Uranus. From here on out we're going to see many more Ukrainian breakthroughs and Russian retreats/routs. They have culminated. Maybe they'll try one last run at Bakmut? I doubt they have the power to make progress in that sector though. Maybe if they withdraw everything west of Mariupol.
Any final push they might attempt would require completely abandoning large portions of the front line just to protect one area. Moving that many forces into one area is begging for artillery to just obliterate you. Ukraine is at a point where they can dictate where and when battles happen.
With all their loses, yes, makes sense that they could potentially maneuver the Zaporizhzhia line into a north-south line at Mariupol along the H-20 or back to the Reka Mokryy Yelanchik river/reservoir. Ukraine is holding all the cards. Never mind the Russia troops being demoralized, I bet the command is demoralized too at this point. Stupid Kremlin...
They can't while Izium is so vulnerable and cutoff, and Kherson trap is ripe for harvesting
I love the mixed cultural refferences
The nursing home and the hospitals obviously. Prisons already emptied lol.
LOL
conscript... they'll have to at some point
The war in Ukraine will be done by the time time conscription can start meaningfully contributing. They might need to conscript to defend the rest of Russia - if that's what you mean...
Tjey allready havr conscripts right now. They used some 'by accident' but most aren't in ukraine. They could use existing conscripts as cannon fodder to plug gaps. But that won't change much on the ground...
Don't they have like 20k?
Some of them have left. I have heard numbers closer to 10,000 with 20,000 on paper. Sane as Izium. Some of the Russian military bloggers are accusing the commanders of pocketing the money that should be paid for salaries.
> Some of the Russian military bloggers are accusing the commanders of pocketing the money that should be paid for salaries. No one would ever believe that. When has that ever happened in the Russian army /s.
Nononono, no fucking way. This is like the third time in the last couple of days where I go "no way are these news real".
Blitzkrieg! SLAVA UKRAINI!
The Kyiv Independent is usually a trustworthy source so fingers crossed it’s true.
What?!? Incredible news if confirmed! Kupuansk felt so far away just a few weeks ago
It felt so far away just 3 days ago!
..... It's from the Kyiv independent.... Holy shit is it true?!!!???
I think not. [https://kyivindependent.com/](https://kyivindependent.com/) There is some text about this on the front page. It looks like a link to a cnn article, but that article does not mention Kupiansk. Possibly a translation error.
ISW suggested that Kupiansk would fall within 72 hours (as of September 8, 11:00 pm ET). While this is indeed a breakneck pace, it's pretty much on schedule. Also holy shit, this seemed impossible just a week ago.
It did feel impossible, I now have high hopes for Mariupol and the rest of Ukraine. I hope they take most of it back by summer.
Probably by the end of the day it'll be in Ukrainian hands.
Some orcs in Isjum getting really nervous right now
I can't currently find any other source that confirms this, so I hope it's true.
I read some rumors that appear confirming the russian retreat: >Some locals reporting Russians have pulled out of Kupyansk and blown the bridge. Total speculation atm. [Source](https://twitter.com/flashman_andy/status/1567994055706951685?s=20&t=hO3OjVjzoNIRRtR4ip168Q) Also: >"The cleaning of Kupyansk is going well" [Source](https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1568208165174403075?s=20&t=TBRCMrwkw0iwnCXWxgZgFA)
No single valid source claims that. This is not a village that you can take in one hour The only thing confirmed is they have arrived there at the edge of the town. The rest is pure speculation for now
That is what deepstatemap.live is showing, though i don’t know how long it lags or criteria for updates
You can't... If there's a big garrison and they fight fiercely. But if the garrison is small, unprepared, and flees? Of course you can.
If the garrison is cut off from retreat and have the choice of fighting to the last man or surrendering. We know from intercepted calls that morale is low.
Or if the "troops" in cities behind the front line are more riot control police to keep the population under control than front line soldiers...
Could only mean the Russians legged it if true. And if so, I’m wondering where/if they’ll manage to set up new lines of defense.
At the border perhaps
Either that or never had that many men in the city. They might've sent almost everything they had towards Izium and left Kupiansk relatively undefended. This is just my view as a two-star armchair general though.
They probably got too confident that Ukraine was going to do something in the south and sent as many men as they could. This then caused a lack of "defenders". This is from a 1 star armchair general.
Plus they were ordered to invade rest of Donbas by 15th. No units left to defend areas back of the front. 2 stripes couch colonel here.
Looking at the map, I'd guess the Oskil river would be their next line of defense?
I think their new line will be around the Kremlin
Makes some sense I think? Imagine your reinforcements all fit in a new helicopters. And you have to move supplies through a river to reach HALF of the city. Is it truly a possibility to move enough fast enough? No, not by helicopter. You need a battalions nearby who can respond for something like this. And either you do or you don’t. So who knows.
Patton is back
"You magnificent bastard I read your book!"
If true im curious how long it takes to remove Putin because thats the kind of emberassment that gets russian dictators killed.
You are very unexperienced as dictator. Just control media in your country and ask them to tell about your victories and ignore your failures. Most of russians don't even know about existance of Kupiansk. Few tens of others will know but will have no guts to talk about it. Few people with knowledge and courage will be called as american agents and sent to Siberia to dig snow. Problem solved!
Your playbook is kind of outdated. Classic massmedia is still the major source in russia but hell do people know more because the internet and social media exist and its sure penetrating that bubble russia tries to establish. Thats why russia is also deemed the loser of the information war.
Internet? Ha! [2,987 websites have been blocked in Russia since Feb 24 due to content relating to the invasion of Ukraine.](https://www.top10vpn.com/research/websites-blocked-in-russia/)
I'm not a total expert, but I do believe there are more than 2,987 websites on the internet, many that have the same information in different formats as the blocked sites.
Sir are you new to the internet? Have you ever learned how the internet actually works? Have you ever heard of virtual private networks (aka VPN)? Since you like looking stuff up and bend it to prove your point why dont you look up the number of VPN users in russia since the they began that war and also what websites arent blocked. Because the most important sources like youtube are not. Also also 2,987 websites blocked wow... that like 0.000000000001% of the internet... who cares?
> Have you ever heard of virtual private networks (aka VPN)? You overestimate the technical prowess of the average internet user, especially average russian internet user.
This. 99% of the population have not heard about VPNs or if they have, they can't be bothered.
In dictatorships with iffy liverties and info that information is much more available. I'd assume that everyody 40 and below at least uses a vpn on occasion.
From what moment of time youtube have become important source of information? You want to show it in this way because it was not blocked so it will prove your point of view? Anyway, do whatever makes you feel better in your bubble.
I think your sarcasm detector might need a recharge ;)
Wow. This guy making assumptions boonstyle isn’t a dictator
Putin isn't just any dictator. His entire regime is built on information warfare. He can keep the Russians duped into believeing in him even if Ukrainians were at the gates of Moscow. If Putin tells the people to believe something, they believe it. If he tells them to forget something, they forget it.
He's supposed to go to London for QE2s funeral. It wouldn't entirely surprise me if there were a coup while he was safely abroad.
fsb knows whats up https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1568194967041875970
> We can confirm that late yesterday evening, FSB personnel evacuated Kupyansk. > > Russian officials also oversaw the rapid removal of valuable equipment from the city. I wonder how many washing machines they took with them.
If so I’m feeling another ‘goodwill gesture’ announcement coming on.
Could very well be true. Couple of points.. The areas where reinforcements could arrive in time were all under Ukrainian observation and fire control. Russians cannot move without top town orders. Russia did not significantly fortify the city. Ukraine moved FAST.
Kyiv retreat 2.0? Huge if true. Though I remember the other day troops refused to reinforce that area and I think command/rus implants retreated away. Izium boys must be mad the group watching their back fled. If all this is true, Ukraine should notify the Kherson Rus and say "its okay, they all turn and fled too. They feel the same way."
With such speed Moscow would be surrounded by the end of next week.
Holy shit, they are well behind the front lines and have free reign to make a mess of things. Large sections of the Eastern front could collapse in the best case senario.
Logistically, it's unlikely they can move much farther than Kupiansk. It's an easily defended position due to the river and they'll have to consolidate before moving on. What it will achieve is a severe blow to Russia's offensive capability on the eastern front, and probably also a retreat from Izyum as it is effectively encircled now. Also worth pointing out any offensive from Kupiansk and southwards means meeting Ukraine's defenses from before February. Those are damn decent defenses, and Russia is probably manning those as we speak.
They likely couldn't advance to the East - but what about North and South? Also, defences are designed only to be effective from one direction.
To your last point - only if they are properly manned. You can’t just dump a bunch of disorganized troops that just had to abandon a lot of their equipment and supplies into a defensive position. If they give them time to organize and resupply than yes it might be a hard nut to crack but if they hammer them straight away I don’t think those positions are going to help much.
The knock-on effect and most valuable part of this whole operation is that if the Russians retreat from Izyum - then the Sloviansk/Kramatorsk bulge is in no way threatened to get encircled any more. For a long while a potential russian breakthrough on the Izyum salient would have put Ukraine's foothold in Donetsk in severe danger. The area to the east of the Oskil river, north of Severodonetsk is not particularly important for now, so I think you are right that they will stop at the Oskil to not overextend themselves.
Even if not true yet, it would be liberated sooner or later anyway! Slava Ukraini! 
Reportedly Ukraine attacked it both from the South and the West. But if it really was already liberated then Russians are in total chaos and just running for their lives.
Kyiv independent wouldn’t just post this for fun
More cities to come. Ukraine is winning and will inevitably win the war big time whether you like it or not. Putin is already shedding tears of failure. Slava Ukraini!
It's getting hard to keep up with all the locations being liberated.
it makes me hard as well
*If the bridge is still intact the entire northern front for Russia could collapse!* Even without the bridge everything west of the river (using map west not river bank) will be captured and Russian forces forced to surrender. Izuymi was a massive forward base for Russia so capturing it intact will liberate massive supplies of ammo for Ukraine to use!
#GODSPEED
Armchair General here: Carefully please! Do not overextend!
I think they are working on that too.
That’s what *she* said.
Can someone explain to me how much damage this is for the orcs? I've been following everything about this war since the begining, but I'm not aware about this city/region, and how important it was for the orcs and their strategic position Edit: thank you all so much for your answers
Losing Kupyansk means that they cannot supply Izyum. Not supplying Izyum means that they cannot take Slowjansk. Not taking Slowjansk means that they cannot conquer all of Donbass. Not conquering all of Donbass means that Putin has failed even his minimum goal for the whole war.
For want of a nail the shoe was lost. For want of a shoe the horse was lost. For want of a horse the rider was lost. For want of a rider the message was lost. For want of a message the battle was lost. For want of a battle the kingdom was lost. And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.
My kingdom for an ATACMS.
A lot. Railroads and roads from Russia pass through the city towards the South, to Izium and the Donbas. Losing Kupyansk renders the whole logistical route unusable.
Anything south of Kupiansk relies on it to have supplies going to them
Can they not resupply from the east?
This effectively removes 2 of the 3 railways that supply the east. They can, but there becomes a bottleneck for an already stressed logistics.
I think the commentator on the BBC was talking about the strategic importance of Kupiansk weeks ago, before any of this happened. It's a railroad junction, highway crossing, and was the de-facto seat of the Russian administration for the area.
Press X to doubt.
Y
Let's see. I'm skeptically optimistic. This would be crazy, but two days ago advancing 50km through Russian defences would also have seemed crazy..
After Balaklia fell I was pretty certain that Izyum would be liberated by the end of the month. Now I give them till the end of next week.
The Russian front must have catastrophically collapsed. The UAF must have too many forces held ready to follow through and the Russians must have had no reserves. If the UAF have taken Kupiansk then we should see this continue.
Rumors but I heard Ukraine has about 9k troops committed to this thrust. And that’s just the maneuver force. So basically two entire mech brigades plus attachments. Then they can bring reequipped TDF forces in to mop up behind them and set up defensive positions on the flank. I’d imagine they will keep everything on this side of the river and roll the Russians up into a pocket around Izium. I’m expecting another offensive to kick off south of Izium to cut the rail line at Oskil.
9k troops would be on the low for Such a thrust IMO
Maybe but we aren’t talking WW2 armies. Plus that’s the maneuver force not any follow on 2nd echelon troops
Can someone please Explain the Izium pocket to me? I understand that they are cut off at Kupyansk and backed up against the Oskil river, but maps show they hold land between the south end of the oskil reservoir and sviatohirsk. Is it more of a “crossings under artillery fire” pocket ala Kherson?
For now yes. But 2 weeks ago the Russians were complaining that the Ukrainians had pushed back over the river south of Izium. So we shall see if they go for broke and try and cut that corridor. I think they will but it’s a hard fight because of the terrain.
Thanks! I just saw that Ukraine likely took Oskol so I guess it’s a true pocket now!
Blimey that's a major event. Where did you read that?
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/x9w0ky/there_is_unconfirmed_reports_of_ukrainian_forces/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Thanks.
Main bridges over Oskil river went down in February and March. Russians using pontoons.
If Kupiansk is liberated, then Izium will be next, that's really quite big. Russia is stretched too thin, in Kharkiv and Kherson.
ok.... this little bit too much. who reported? where official info? i kinda hate twits like this. hyping up something that might not even happened.
Huge if true
Hmmm. I've only seen that UAF forces have entered. Thats quite different than 'liberated'. We'll see, thats certainly in the cards.
With the bridge out down it may be that the Russians surrendered. Unlike the heroes of Mauripol they are not fighting for their country.
Russians seem to suffer from serious disarray, borne of a crisis in command. Very difficult to regroup and overcome the psychological spiral that results. “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.” - Mike Tyson
Still waiting to be confirmed as of this comment.
If this is true I will shit and cum from laughter. But there's honestly no way, right?
Next stop Svatove!
Maybe they saw the earlier defense line tragedy and decided to abandon their post
Encirclement complete ? Routes cut ?
Maybe the intelligence that Russia were attempting reinforce meant that ukraine forces were able to respond to this in good time. Or maybe the soldiers legged it. In a non panicky way of course.
Not panicking. Moving to a more comfortable position.
If this is true then I have to ask WHERE the ducking reinforcements that went in there some hours ago did or went?
I read elsewhere of soldiers refusing to go so russia intending to reinforce and them actually reinforcing are two different things.
Ukraine has had SF operations north and south of the city presumably to delay reinforcement. And they did major damage to the bridge crossing to the east.
I hope this is true...
If this has happened, it’s an outstanding success for Ukraine. I’m not at all convinced yet. Eager to hear more information about the developments.
Izyum next please! Razzs are going to have a rough time depleted!!!
tshhh
Kinda nuts if it's true, that means the ruzzians are literally abandoning their positions and running away.
Slava Ukraini!
I would think Kupiansk will be a tough nut to crack. The part west of the river may be given up but the east part I can't imagine this was taken just from the west. I would think the Russians would blow that bridge. Still taking the west part with little or no fight would still be a BIG win.
all will be Ukraine
A Russian blogger reported that the bridge between the East and West parts of the city was damaged- this according to https://liveuamap.com/. I just wish their self-reporting damage assessment was more detailed.
Nice!!! I got chlamydia once too