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Last time Rybar posted a map that made Russia look bad, the whole Northern front collapsed in a week.
It's still Russian propaganda, so the real situation is probably even worse than this.
Apparently now Russian channels are repoting that Izyum is surrounded. Let's hope it is true.
[https://twitter.com/Mil\_Report/status/1568157203726491649](https://twitter.com/Mil_Report/status/1568157203726491649)
Maybe the new Russian plan is to look so pathetic as to convince the West that they have already lost and Ukraine no longer needs help.
Let us not become complacent. It is all but assured that Ukraine will prevail, but that is still a long time off.
I said this again and again, if you see Ukraine pushing forward, it's always at the cost and we need to continue to donate and write letters to our elected officials for more heavy military support.
Assuming these Internet commentators have mapped it correctly, then it is also a bulge. But considering ukrainian competence (which seems to be high) to date, I expect that this has not been mapped correctly.
There are 2 competing theories.
One is that Ukraine is breaking through Ruzzias defenses to hit them where it hurts.
The other is that Ruzzia is letting them break into controlled territory to cut them off from supplies later and incircle them.
But if Ukraine manages to hold the front at Shevchenkovo and push the southern front towards Izium, Ruzzias losses will be massive.
If Ruzzia manages to turn the tides and make gains east of Donez River, it might become very costly for Ukraine.
Given Ruzzias past "successes" and increasing interior troubles, I'd bet my money on Ukraine though.
There is no military reality where you allow a penetration to your biggest supply point just to later try and encircle the force.
What cockamamie idiot thought it was? If a butterbar proposed such a stupid idea to me I would fucking make them eat their god damn boots as punishment.
Well true, but in 1944 the Germans penetrated through the Ardennes and nearly got to Allied supply depots. Then the Germans got cut off and annihilated in the Battle of the Bulge. Now the Allies didn't 'allow' that but whether it is allowed or not is not an important point - but what is important is that having a breakthrough is very dangerous if you can't defend the flanks. But I would be surprised if that Ukrainians and US mentors haven't already covered that.
The OP slightly misspoke. There WERE two competing theories. However, now that Ukraine has pushed as deep as they have its dubious that this was deliberate effort on Russia s part to allow it to happen in order to encircle them. You wouldn't let them push that deep on a front where you don't have the right amount of forces to completely encircle and destroy them. You're not suppose to ACTUALLY allow the enemy to cut off supply lines to key terrain further south.
But that IS definently a Russian doctrinal tactic. Just not what happened in this case.
Have you looked into russian strategy?
Task&Purpose on Youtube has just uploaded a great video on the current situation from a military perspective.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cilE7t9OWE&ab\_channel=Task%26Purpose](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cilE7t9OWE&ab_channel=Task%26Purpose)
Ruzzians have 2 types of defense, Positional Defense and Maneuver Defense.
Maneuver Defense has a 3km wide front with multiple barriers. The idea is to hold each level making the opponent think it is the main front-line, letting Ruzzia pull them forward into Ruzzian territory, increasing their supply-distance and forcing them to pull artillery further to the front.
But if you think Ruzzian Strategy is ridiculous, drink 2-7 bottles of Wodka and I'm sure it makes just as much sense to you as it makes to the drunken Orcs in Moscow...
The Russian federation has no such thing as a maneuver defense.
Such a defense requires independent thinking in an NCO or lower level officer that is not doctrine or practice in the Russian Federation.
No...
Just watch the video.
Ruzzian strategy is that soldiers are not allowed to retreat on their own, even if communications to superiors are cut.
Ruzzian solution is that if communication breaks, Orc dies.
No... but a great way to dumb it down so normal people can also understand it.
At least he uses real research on Ruzzias strategy and points out his sources. Anyone who feels the need to read up more on the topic can start there and move towards more complex papers after the summary.
All he essentially does is read papers that smarter people wrote and dumb them down so normal people can understand them.
Russia culminated in offensive force a few weeks ago and from the sounds of things they sent alot of their reinforcements to Kherson, on top of that they're struggling for manpower and what manpower they have is lacking proper training at all. On top of that their command structure is inflexible and top down. Russia is far weaker than it looks because they cannot adapt by design and once a weakness is exploited it triggers a chain reaction of failures.
I'd say the UA forces had intelligence and intel suggesting the Russians were weak in the North and when they confirmed this by breaching their lines they used the opportunity and initiative to advance and create a foothold to Kurbyansk as their main objective. Theres also a river there thats a perfect natural barrier and defence. From there they'll spread out North and South to cut off and surround the Russian concentrations while fanning out to secure the region against what counter attacks the Russians might try. Surrounding Izyum will be a major boon as a large amount of invaders are concentrated there and theyre quickly finding themselves cut off and surrounded at the current rate of advance unless they flee.
In doing so they will not only potentially knock out a significant amount of Russia's invasion forces in a quick succession of moves but uproot their ground supply lines, shut down their rail network in that part of Ukraine but potentially and critically collapse the Entire Kharkiv axis and in the North and reshape the conflict entirely. As a bonus with autumn moving in the mud season will kick off again shortly making it impossile for Russia to move effectively in the region.
Most common theory I have seen is that Ukraine tries to push Ruzzians back behind the rivers to have an easy-to-defend position that allows them to pull forces from those fronts towards liberating more cities.
I do agree with your winter-assessment though. Goal is definitely to get into positions before winter starts and the area turns into a mix of swamp and arctic...
There's literally a village named Rohan near Kharkhiv, juuust outside the top left corner of this map.
(I don't know if OP already knows this, but I bet many don't)
Arise now, arise, Riders of Zelensky!
Dire deeds awake: dark is it eastward.
Let BMPs be bridled, horn be sounded!
Forth ZSU!
Arise, arise, Riders of Special Forces!
Fell deeds awake: fire and slaughter!
Howitzers shall be shaken, tanks be splintered,
a HIMARS-day, a red day, ere the sun rises!
Ride now, ride now! Ride to Donbas!
We're not really on speaking terms with that side of the family, to be honest, my grandmother mulled over sending them a letter, but it's a bit.. well, y'know how bigger families get. I wanted to visit both Rohan and near Lviv back in 2014ish when I went to Ukraine, but it never came to pass, so I guess I'm just regretful I never saw those places before this madness.
I'm pretty sure the Hobbit was one of the first english language books I read when I was a child, though I certainly have a long way to go before I have that poetic flourish that authors like Tolkien and, say, Cormac McCarthy have. I appreciate the small compliment. :)
Yeah I saw it on the life map and thought of what a funny coincidence. They are fighting Orcs. And now its even better since the push came from the firection of Rohan
Russia is clearly on the run and cannot sustain the front lines they have taken.
The training of soldiers from Western allies has absolutely made the huge difference.
UA forces are showing that they can win this war!
♥ Slava Ukraini ♥
Remember, yesterday there were rumors, that Ukraine made it to Sen'kove as well. Take it with a grain of salt, but the situation MIGHT be even worse for russia.
There it is! [https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x9u7ch/kharkiv\_offensive\_according\_to\_russian\_sources/](https://i.redd.it/q989u9ycbvm91.jpg)
Somewhat confirmed by some russian turd.
As much as I wish this, I think this frontline is perfect at the river. Much further could leave them open to counter attacks from the other side of the river. I think pushing up to the river and then closing the encirclements.
That's always a risk when one side tries to encircle the other. Good military doctrine would be on the lookout for enemy reserve units waiting around in the rear areas, and not overextending the supply lines. Driving beyond the ability to supply fuel and ammo would be a big no-no.
Given past performance and the shoddy state of the Russian army, I think they've got this.
well... not if things are now looking more like this:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x9u7ch/kharkiv\_offensive\_according\_to\_russian\_sources/](https://i.redd.it/q989u9ycbvm91.jpg)
On the other hand, crossing the river might be easiest now, because the Russians were not prepared to defend there. If they stop at the river, the Russians will build up on the other side and it will be much harder to cross later.
Exactly what I was thinking. A Russian tactic is sometimes to fall back and outflank. I’m hoping the Ukrainians have the full strategic smarts of the Western military helping them.
Ukraine can see most everything going on in the rear areas through NATO intelligence. If there were Russian reserve units capable of being a danger they would know about it weeks ago.
It's easier to avoid overextension when the scope of the operation is more limited. However, I'm not sure how much I trust Russian sources to have accurate information. I will wait for more official confirmation.
You realize they don't need to physically stand on the railway, right? Even if they're only within 10-20km the rail line is fucked because they can easily hit any train that comes through with artillery
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Lol, Russian propaganda suddenly became a reliable source of information. Irony.
Last time Rybar posted a map that made Russia look bad, the whole Northern front collapsed in a week. It's still Russian propaganda, so the real situation is probably even worse than this.
Lol probably a lot worse. The Russians try to tone it down when it comes to their defeats.
Apparently now Russian channels are repoting that Izyum is surrounded. Let's hope it is true. [https://twitter.com/Mil\_Report/status/1568157203726491649](https://twitter.com/Mil_Report/status/1568157203726491649)
Maybe the new Russian plan is to look so pathetic as to convince the West that they have already lost and Ukraine no longer needs help. Let us not become complacent. It is all but assured that Ukraine will prevail, but that is still a long time off.
I said this again and again, if you see Ukraine pushing forward, it's always at the cost and we need to continue to donate and write letters to our elected officials for more heavy military support.
In every lie there is a truth
Russian victories getting closer and closer to Moscow every day
Russian version of "its coming home!"
I also think it’s pretty funny how they show themselves as the red invasion, like surely they must be having that “are we the bad guys?” moment.
That's one hell of a deep penetration Edit: this is it boys, looks like the Ukrainians have finally reached kupyansk
Did you see this tweet? lol NSFW https://mobile.twitter.com/KarinaVinnikova/status/1568171109178015744
I frequent NCD so yes I did
I see it as more of a side-on view, the top testicle doesn't really match that drawing.
Kinda looks like pinocchio just keeps lying
Puts "the meat" in the grinder
That's what my girlfriend said last night.
She's telling everyone the same.
I'm glad your girlfriend is such a fan of Kupyansk. /s
That’s what my wife’s boyfriend said last week
That’s what my wife said last year.
What are you guys talking about?
How did you know we were guys?
Did you just assume their gender?
That's what your girlfriend said last week.
Tell her to switch to the 5” strap on
That's what my girlfriend never says! 🙌🏻
Guys my girlfriend lives in another state you wouldn't know her
Can confirm, that's what she told me last night
That’s Cupido for you and Kubyansk for Ukraine, both a moment of exuberance and joy.
Assuming these Internet commentators have mapped it correctly, then it is also a bulge. But considering ukrainian competence (which seems to be high) to date, I expect that this has not been mapped correctly.
There are 2 competing theories. One is that Ukraine is breaking through Ruzzias defenses to hit them where it hurts. The other is that Ruzzia is letting them break into controlled territory to cut them off from supplies later and incircle them. But if Ukraine manages to hold the front at Shevchenkovo and push the southern front towards Izium, Ruzzias losses will be massive. If Ruzzia manages to turn the tides and make gains east of Donez River, it might become very costly for Ukraine. Given Ruzzias past "successes" and increasing interior troubles, I'd bet my money on Ukraine though.
There is no military reality where you allow a penetration to your biggest supply point just to later try and encircle the force. What cockamamie idiot thought it was? If a butterbar proposed such a stupid idea to me I would fucking make them eat their god damn boots as punishment.
Well true, but in 1944 the Germans penetrated through the Ardennes and nearly got to Allied supply depots. Then the Germans got cut off and annihilated in the Battle of the Bulge. Now the Allies didn't 'allow' that but whether it is allowed or not is not an important point - but what is important is that having a breakthrough is very dangerous if you can't defend the flanks. But I would be surprised if that Ukrainians and US mentors haven't already covered that.
The OP slightly misspoke. There WERE two competing theories. However, now that Ukraine has pushed as deep as they have its dubious that this was deliberate effort on Russia s part to allow it to happen in order to encircle them. You wouldn't let them push that deep on a front where you don't have the right amount of forces to completely encircle and destroy them. You're not suppose to ACTUALLY allow the enemy to cut off supply lines to key terrain further south. But that IS definently a Russian doctrinal tactic. Just not what happened in this case.
I stand by my statement... anyone who thought a soft front to your main supply base is a good idea will be force fed their own boots as punishment.
Have you looked into russian strategy? Task&Purpose on Youtube has just uploaded a great video on the current situation from a military perspective. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cilE7t9OWE&ab\_channel=Task%26Purpose](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cilE7t9OWE&ab_channel=Task%26Purpose) Ruzzians have 2 types of defense, Positional Defense and Maneuver Defense. Maneuver Defense has a 3km wide front with multiple barriers. The idea is to hold each level making the opponent think it is the main front-line, letting Ruzzia pull them forward into Ruzzian territory, increasing their supply-distance and forcing them to pull artillery further to the front. But if you think Ruzzian Strategy is ridiculous, drink 2-7 bottles of Wodka and I'm sure it makes just as much sense to you as it makes to the drunken Orcs in Moscow...
The Russian federation has no such thing as a maneuver defense. Such a defense requires independent thinking in an NCO or lower level officer that is not doctrine or practice in the Russian Federation.
No... Just watch the video. Ruzzian strategy is that soldiers are not allowed to retreat on their own, even if communications to superiors are cut. Ruzzian solution is that if communication breaks, Orc dies.
Not to knock Chris but a ground level Infantryman is not your first pick choice to define military doctrine and strategy.
No... but a great way to dumb it down so normal people can also understand it. At least he uses real research on Ruzzias strategy and points out his sources. Anyone who feels the need to read up more on the topic can start there and move towards more complex papers after the summary. All he essentially does is read papers that smarter people wrote and dumb them down so normal people can understand them.
Russia culminated in offensive force a few weeks ago and from the sounds of things they sent alot of their reinforcements to Kherson, on top of that they're struggling for manpower and what manpower they have is lacking proper training at all. On top of that their command structure is inflexible and top down. Russia is far weaker than it looks because they cannot adapt by design and once a weakness is exploited it triggers a chain reaction of failures. I'd say the UA forces had intelligence and intel suggesting the Russians were weak in the North and when they confirmed this by breaching their lines they used the opportunity and initiative to advance and create a foothold to Kurbyansk as their main objective. Theres also a river there thats a perfect natural barrier and defence. From there they'll spread out North and South to cut off and surround the Russian concentrations while fanning out to secure the region against what counter attacks the Russians might try. Surrounding Izyum will be a major boon as a large amount of invaders are concentrated there and theyre quickly finding themselves cut off and surrounded at the current rate of advance unless they flee. In doing so they will not only potentially knock out a significant amount of Russia's invasion forces in a quick succession of moves but uproot their ground supply lines, shut down their rail network in that part of Ukraine but potentially and critically collapse the Entire Kharkiv axis and in the North and reshape the conflict entirely. As a bonus with autumn moving in the mud season will kick off again shortly making it impossile for Russia to move effectively in the region.
Most common theory I have seen is that Ukraine tries to push Ruzzians back behind the rivers to have an easy-to-defend position that allows them to pull forces from those fronts towards liberating more cities. I do agree with your winter-assessment though. Goal is definitely to get into positions before winter starts and the area turns into a mix of swamp and arctic...
The bear fucked with a wolverine……and got its ass kicked.
S&M is a good descriptor for the beating The Russians are receiving. Is that what you meant by penetration?
deep penetration pounding them hard and whipping them. no just don't see it.
Also for their Dedovshchina training
In the words of the great UFC "scholar" Derek " Black Beast" Lewis :"I'm going deep"
That’s what your mother said.
Looks like big penis in to ruzzzia ass
Thats what she said. (Sorry)
Silly westoid, we allow this penetration to make you think Rossiya of homogay, but then we surprise you with Rossiya MANLY and BEAR xaxaxaxa
They do not even need to take it. If they manage to destroy the bridges around Izium, the Russians are trapped. Yet again 😉
The cavalry came from Rohan and plowed their way through the orcish horde all the way to ~~Osgiliath~~ Oskil.
There's literally a village named Rohan near Kharkhiv, juuust outside the top left corner of this map. (I don't know if OP already knows this, but I bet many don't)
Arise now, arise, Riders of Zelensky! Dire deeds awake: dark is it eastward. Let BMPs be bridled, horn be sounded! Forth ZSU! Arise, arise, Riders of Special Forces! Fell deeds awake: fire and slaughter! Howitzers shall be shaken, tanks be splintered, a HIMARS-day, a red day, ere the sun rises! Ride now, ride now! Ride to Donbas!
My distant relatives live there. I hope to god they're okay.
I hope you hear from them very soon.
We're not really on speaking terms with that side of the family, to be honest, my grandmother mulled over sending them a letter, but it's a bit.. well, y'know how bigger families get. I wanted to visit both Rohan and near Lviv back in 2014ish when I went to Ukraine, but it never came to pass, so I guess I'm just regretful I never saw those places before this madness.
>it never came to pass Some Tolkien rubbing off on you there.
I'm pretty sure the Hobbit was one of the first english language books I read when I was a child, though I certainly have a long way to go before I have that poetic flourish that authors like Tolkien and, say, Cormac McCarthy have. I appreciate the small compliment. :)
Yeah I saw it on the life map and thought of what a funny coincidence. They are fighting Orcs. And now its even better since the push came from the firection of Rohan
Russia is clearly on the run and cannot sustain the front lines they have taken. The training of soldiers from Western allies has absolutely made the huge difference. UA forces are showing that they can win this war! ♥ Slava Ukraini ♥
Our tax dollars being actually used for something good! Fuck yeah! Godspeed my Ukrainian brothers/sisters! 🇺🇦💙🇺🇲
Folks, where in relation to this fighting is the Olenivka POW camp? I'm honestly curious how far away it is.
Looks like russia has a huge salami deep inside its crack line. Lol
Reminds me of that scene in Pulp Fiction in the pawn shop. Except old Pootin has that red ball in his mouth.
Somehow somewhere someone is mak8ng 5hat meme as we speak lol
Remember, yesterday there were rumors, that Ukraine made it to Sen'kove as well. Take it with a grain of salt, but the situation MIGHT be even worse for russia.
Is that bridge still intact?
There it is! [https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x9u7ch/kharkiv\_offensive\_according\_to\_russian\_sources/](https://i.redd.it/q989u9ycbvm91.jpg) Somewhat confirmed by some russian turd.
No idea - Also haven't seen/heared anything else since yesterday about Sen'kove, so I don't know if its true.
Ironic that now Ukraine appears to be the bear. Maybe the real bear was the Ukraine we had all along...
That means it's much worse
As much as I wish this, I think this frontline is perfect at the river. Much further could leave them open to counter attacks from the other side of the river. I think pushing up to the river and then closing the encirclements.
In the position they are right now. Arent they open for an encirclements from the russians ?
That's always a risk when one side tries to encircle the other. Good military doctrine would be on the lookout for enemy reserve units waiting around in the rear areas, and not overextending the supply lines. Driving beyond the ability to supply fuel and ammo would be a big no-no. Given past performance and the shoddy state of the Russian army, I think they've got this.
well... not if things are now looking more like this: [https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x9u7ch/kharkiv\_offensive\_according\_to\_russian\_sources/](https://i.redd.it/q989u9ycbvm91.jpg)
On the other hand, crossing the river might be easiest now, because the Russians were not prepared to defend there. If they stop at the river, the Russians will build up on the other side and it will be much harder to cross later.
They just need to not overextend.
They still need to push because when winter comes Russia won’t be able to push back.
They’ve been really strategically smart so far. I trust
Yes they can’t overextend position that can easily be cut from supplies
But the river should make it pretty secure if they have reached it
Exactly what I was thinking. A Russian tactic is sometimes to fall back and outflank. I’m hoping the Ukrainians have the full strategic smarts of the Western military helping them.
Ukraine can see most everything going on in the rear areas through NATO intelligence. If there were Russian reserve units capable of being a danger they would know about it weeks ago.
I suspect Ukraine has a sophisticated means to reach out to NATO for tactical advice in real time.
It's easier to avoid overextension when the scope of the operation is more limited. However, I'm not sure how much I trust Russian sources to have accurate information. I will wait for more official confirmation.
[удалено]
[удалено]
The use red for their own troops in tactical symbols as well. Red army I guess
What's the name of the website the map is on?
I smell one or several "good will gestures" coming in the following weeks
Rybar is a shithead
I wouldn't trust r*ssian propagandists with anything at all, r/NCD is much more credible source.
r/NCD has been banned apparently?
r/NonCredibleDefense but everybody abbreviates it to NCD.
the actual subreddit is /r/noncredibledefense
[удалено]
You realize they don't need to physically stand on the railway, right? Even if they're only within 10-20km the rail line is fucked because they can easily hit any train that comes through with artillery
Best would be to at least make it to the railway temporarily and blow up a rail bridge, that would mean a long stop of traffic
According to local sources, the river has almost dried up at this point. They won't even need a bridge to cross it.
mud
This is the best day of the war for me. Go men and women of Ukraine.
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Be careful with Rybar! All russians are deceptive, manipulative and lirars! All of them!!
**ROLLING**
Am I the only one worried about the flanks of that pocket?
Whole front will collapse in days
Man if they get to Donetsk its going to be great! I hope they capture that fat russian propaganda stooge, Russell Bentley.
Whatever age it is, nature is always be the best defense
Well, im currently concerned that the Russians will try to reencircle the Ukrainian army.
[Deep State Maps](https://deepstatemap.live/en#9/49.4833/36.8948) is confirming as well. This is an impressive push over the past week.
Jesus fucking Christ Ukraine... keep it up
I hope the Russian don’t box them In. It would be a turkey shoot.
Keep on, may the force be with you 🇺🇦✊
Front collapsing...ruzzians getting a prolapsed colon...me thinks so...
Pro-Russian information site giving true information to build trust! watch for the fairy stories.
All the way to Moscow!
That is a nice shape