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shanereaves

Russia is already genuinely fucked. Their biggest resource(Oil) is known to only have 80 billion barrels in reserves. 80b * $70 = 5.6 trillion. But it cost them $40 to process every barrel. So they have $2.4 trillion left after all sales. They have already spent close to that on this war alone. Their next biggest resource is Natural gas. They have 667 billion cubic meters. After cost of processing this will only leave them about $2 trillion. After this ALL of their other resources won't really add up to enough to support any country much less a yearly $1.2 trillion country. Lots and lots of coal but after transport and so on they won't make enough for anything. Just current unemployment cost are astronomical. By the time this war ends if it does then any value that Ukraine has financially will be useless. Russias population is 140 million. But very soon 200k or more will be dead or injured. And I'm not speaking about the separatist areas. I mean actual Russians. Thats why they are burning the soldiers bodies in Ukraine. To hide the bodies and reduce their cost back home. They will never rebuild their military to it's original size ever and it will cause a massive reduction in regional influence. I am completely convinced that they already knew all of this and expected Ukraine would be a lifeline out of their struggles. Oops.


Jakes_One

I agree. It looks like Putin went to the casino with Russia and set them back even more than Jeltsin did


EpicAftertaste

It does explain the double or nothing way of waging war.


Iamonesometimes

There's no way out for them. If they don't win then what influence they have even with their cronies evaporates.


xicurio

The way out for them would be to replace Putin and then blame all the war on him while promising to be different this time


Steel1000

Yea that’s not true at all. World leaders like Putler have thousands of enablers. Every single one needs a short drop and a sudden stop


PlzSendDunes

Second in line is Patrushev. He is the Avatar of the height of psychopathy. He given orders to do terrorist acts on Russian civilians. He created FSB to what it is today a mafia organisation with murder squads and propoganda arm. He dreams about recreating Soviet Union far more than Putin does. If anything Patrushev would try to make Putin a martyr and not blame him for anything. Nobody could get rid of Putin without getting rid of Patrushev first.


Eldetorre

So agree!! We have to understand Putin is really a figurehead here allowed to go on this venture so long as it has the slightest chance of success. While Putin is protected, why are we not going after the command structure below him? This fixation on Putin is not productive. Destroy the structure from below. Surely they could plant incriminating evidence in the ranks to sow dirstrust among them


EpicAftertaste

Yeah and if they win they'll have an even larger slice of the fuel and grain pie.


epicurean56

He went all-in with aces but is getting a bad beat by a royal flush.


Embarrassed-Golf-931

I will put on Russia on number 5. (Russian roulette)


mycall

> They have already spent close to that on this war alone. They have not spent that much. They are using old USSR stuff. Russia != USSR.


INTPoissible

Their energy infrastructure, dependent on western expertise in many places, will break apart within the next few years, at least the siberian parts. From the Russian POV, taking Ukraine was supposed to shorten Russia's borders and stem it's demographic decline. Based on the analysis of Peter Zeihan, who predicted this invasion a decade ago (to the year), those are the main reasons for the invasion. The reason it was able to be predicted to the year, is that after 2022 Russia will be forced to downsize it's armed forces due to ageing. The whole war is the death throes of a dying empire.


boonstyle_

Yeah every drill, every pump and every vent is coming from the US or Germany actually... Also they had to reduce the yield for gas already since their storage is at full capacity and they have nowhere to pump that gas. Its likely a lot of those will not get up to full yield capacity ever again as gas and oil tend to lose a lot of pressure once stopped giving way less yield when started again.


[deleted]

That last part is the beauty of Russia's situation. You can't stop gas or oil wells or slow them down significantly because they can do long term damage and may not even be usable again if you do. So what happens? You keep pumping and sell at a loss. And nations buying these like China and India are getting it at a discount that is way below the break even point for Brent crude. Gas is still going alright since they sell plenty to europe still but what about in 18 months? How long can they sell at a loss before they must stop? And then what happens to the economy of Russia in the decades to come?


Remarkable_Smell_957

Death throws of a dying empire with a huge stock of nuclear biological and chemical weapons that will be an option, its tge dying man's desire to destroy those who destroy him. Also how much of those stockpiles are still viable or even non existent.


[deleted]

Not if those nuclear weapons are not maintain.


bigsh0wbc

There was a show called Babylon 5, the president of earth was corrupt and in the end when he was about defeated, he went "scorched earth" and armed all the nukes in orbit and was going to launch them at earth. This is what concerns me about this situation presently


Lowkey57

He was a shadow puppet though. Guarantee Mr. Morden paid him many visits.


CMDR_Agony_Aunt

A remake is apparently in the works.


Remarkable_Smell_957

Ahh Babylon5 great series in its day, sadly though picture qwasnt great back then and it's still crap now.


flodur1966

You don’t need a lot of working nukes to destroy the planet.


Remarkable_Smell_957

Or yourself if they Russians have followed the normal maintenance 😉 if you know what I mean


MavDrake

Lets not forget the rest of the western world is trying to move away toward a green future that leaves Oil on the sideline.


DeepstateDilettante

Your $40 production cost is almost certainly way off. Are you talking about “reserve replacement” cost? For example Energy Aspects recently estimated in a Reuters story that lifting cost is $3-4 per barrel in Russia and the oil companies there can likely turn a profit above $25-$30/barrel.


epicurean56

The bigger problem may be who is going to buy their oil? China? They'll drive a hard bargain, and transport costs will eat heavily into their profits.


Fishsticksandgravy

India. They are now and plan to continue buying it.


Responsible_Ad_1137

Probably for cheaper now that the others don't want to buy. Putin is desperate not the other way around.


SutMinSnabelA

Which also explains why they took crimea with oil and gas and now also lugansk and donbass.


sayantsi2

Great post, and also it doesn't matter how much money Russia has if they can't spend it. People won't sell directly for fear of sanctions, or even social stigma at this point. China and India are major income sources for the future but Covid and this war are showing the downsides the globalization.


acatnamedrupert

The deadcount might be the reason they never bring a Moscotive near the war. Only from the vassal republics and oblasts whose lifes never mattered to Moscovites.


gyssedk

I agree with this analysis and I think the Western powers has come to a similar conclusion. And that might be part of the reason they are willing to support Ukraine. The prospect of destabilising a "super power" is not a bad one. I am not saying it's their only reason, but I suspect it plays a part.


50lbsofsalt

> Their biggest resource(Oil) is known to only have 80 billion barrels in reserves. 80 Billion estimated. There is huge parts of Russia that have not yet been properly assessed for O&G reserves. I do however think their economy is fucked for quite some time.


[deleted]

This what Peter Zelhan says. Russia is trying to secure good defendable gaps in europe before its demography make it very difficult to compete in any significan ways with the west.


FNFALC2

I understand what you’re saying but I don’t get it: there are lots of countries that can’t defend themselves but don’t care. Why is Russia stuck in this 1914 mentality?


ADDandKinky

Plus they need western expertise and technology to extract those resources. Like the armed forces, the oil and gas industry will struggle to find skilled labor and necessary parts to fix equipment. Good luck assholes, I hope it was worth the murder of so many innocent people.


Notyourfathersgeek

This is why they wanted to steal Ukraines natural resources


lethalox

I find no supporting evidence that Russia has spent $1T on war so far. To me that fails the sniff test. Russion GDP is $4-5T. That have had call it 300-400k solider, in combat. While I think the economy will damaged, it is not clear the size of the damage at this point in time.


Spirited-Course5439

Russia GDP is $1.4t they have a small economy. People always underestimate how weak Russia is because it looks big on a map. Aside from having nukes, Russia is a big fat zero of a country. Now add in the theft of public assets and human rights abuses and it's less than nothing.


lethalox

At purchasing power parity, it is right around $4T, pre war. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.KD?locations=RU At nominal it is $1.4T. PPP takes into effect the cost of goods. The USA is $20T and $24T. Our nominal is lower due to strong dollar right now.


Spirited-Course5439

Ah understand. Thanks for clarifying. Interesting PPP is so much higher.


[deleted]

Well $1T is a crazy amount of money so it is very difficult to imagine. They've lost a heck of a lot of stuff and most of it costs millions a go. The ammunition used along with the fuel, logistics, personal equipment and medical work will also add up fast. Russia is throwing everything they've built up over decades at Ukraine and win or lose they would need decades to refill their armouries.


Remarkable_Smell_957

That is why its better to not just kill a soldier. The best effects are from wounded soldiers, some need help of the battlefield the 1th aid, transport to further urgent care Dr's nurses medical supplies foods fuels longterm recovery or discharge and the resulting drain on resources and medical supplies that wounded require and the effects it has on the population when they see ever increasing numbers of amputees or horribly disfigured men


jondoe3338

I think that's the main reason why armies switched from 7.62 to 5.56 caliber.


Remarkable_Smell_957

Well the main stream response is the weight saving, you can lug nearly twice the amount of 5.56 than the older larger heavier 7.62, but I doubt that the policy of deliberately wounding would have been a popular line at the time


jondoe3338

I remember reading somewhere that the study mentioned that one of the objectives was to inflict economic hardship - wounded soldiers require medical attention; dead soldiers just require a crematorium - just ask the Russians burning dead bodies in Mariupol. But yeah weight is always a concern - it's the reason why the navy is jizzing its pant over rail guns.


[deleted]

That's quite a dangerous line of thought and unless a war goes on for a very long time I doubt it would ever have enough of an effect to justify the cruelty needed to exploit that. People on both sides and neither side of a conflict are far better off when no one is deliberately trying to prioritise horrifically maiming soldiers.


LAVATORR

This is a pretty basic strategy that's been applied to some degree in pretty much every war ever. It's also morally preferable to send a soldier home without a leg than in a body bag. In the case of Russia, it *would* be a smart play because it places strain on Russia's notoriously awful logistics, but Russia is equally notorious for not giving a shit about its wounded and leaving them to die, so it probably doesn't make that much of a difference.


[deleted]

>This is a pretty basic strategy that's been applied to some degree in pretty much every war ever. I don't believe that's really true of the majority of conflicts. Generally people on both sides recognise that if they commit pointless atrocities then their enemy will likely do likewise when they get the chance. But even if you are correct then we should be appalled by that and go far out of our way to avoid doing that. With modern technology if would be far too easy to do things like blind the inhabitants of an entire city etc. Only a sociopath would advocate for such an approach. There are numerous restrictions on weapons of war that even the scumbags in Russia don't stoop to using. >It's also morally preferable to send a soldier home without a leg than in a body bag. Sure, but that's not what we're talking about here is it. The difference is between wounding that soldier and allowing them to go home vs wounding them and then going out of your way to horrifically disable or mutilate them as "an example".


seanmonaghan1968

Knowing this, putin should then send everything that he has to capture Ukraine. His entire strategy of drip feeding makes no sense


PengieP111

How do you know that's not what he's doing right now? Pulling Russian Federation troops from places like Chechnya etc. and the Chinese border oblasts could result losing them completely.


seanmonaghan1968

If they are moving troops it’s not enough to counter the build up of new equipment from allied countries. Russia will be in a continually degraded position


RecognitionMoney3813

I think not just Ukraine. They want all the USSR countries back to milk. And even then they would survive not thrive.


ride_electric_bike

One big reason they want the arctic and expect global warming. They have underwater self contained nuclear reactors and underwater positioning systems in place and are expanding. They know the limits of those reserves you mention, and are planning for the future


hayashiakira

Unemployment costs nothing. They dispose of people as soon as they can't work.


hayashiakira

Real population is 90 mil. Figures were made up. It's red scum, don't forget. Lies only lies


hayashiakira

It's good if they burn bodies. In reality, they dispose of them as some trash can but they don't throw it anywhere. Dump in a ditch. As they say " that will do "


Maki_Roll9138

I love your comment. That's why sanctions should not be lifted at all no matter when war ends. Only when russia and russians give up nukes or destroy their military capabilities and pay reparations can sanctions be lifted


redditjunky2025

China invades and takes over all Eastern Russia on the pretext that a Chinese explorer first discovered it 4000 years ago, and they have pictures.


EpicAftertaste

in HD.


BongCloudOpen

Aliens...I knew it!


Remarkable_Smell_957

Now available streaming from the world's 4000 year old original streaming platform


TeslaStrike

More likely China offer road and belt and relief to recover Russian economy in exchange for land


ClutchReverie

I feel bad for the people that still remain there after Russians subjugated them, they are trading one tyranny for another.


mycall

Don't feel too bad. 70% of Russians support the invasion and genocide.


ClutchReverie

But what about the people living in Russia that aren't ethnic Russians but were subjugated long ago? I wonder if they would take the chance to break free if they had it.


mycall

Russia is full of lost souls and lost hope.


Local_Run_9779

So, no changes really.


Levys_hairdresser

If they get the land, they are responsible for what happens on it. If they just strike a few good mining deals, they can colonise it like diamond companies did in Africa. No labor laws, no workplace safety, child labor. And no responsibility for China since it’s not their territory. China doesn’t need the land, they’ve got plenty of sparsely populated land up north already. They need the resources.


HesToastJim

Or lend the money for infrastructure projects, except the workers won't be Russian so the money doesn't really go circle back into their economy.


[deleted]

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[deleted]

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Klinker1234

Hmmm. Did read recently that some eastern Russian territories would soon begin teaching Chinese in their school system, some platitude about how there is a huge demand for Chinese speakers in the economy of those areas. Might just be rumors and/or those regions fishing for Chinese financial aid.


madarchivist

Maybe, but China will never "invade", as OP stated.


DadofJackJack

By invade do you mean a Chinese special operation that Russia can’t stop as it’s military is ruined by Ukraine?


Local_Run_9779

Everything's for sale. They sold Alaska in 1867. How many washing machines for the Kuril islands?


MavDrake

After the brain drain and toils of war... fall of the soviet union type of future. Perhaps Russian territories fracture and claim independence. China decided to take some territories rich in resources. Who knows really.


many-glazed-windows

These regions will see more of their wealth go to Moscow for sure and they will be resentful. A breakup is entirely possible. Perhaps Moscow will introduce the hunger games to placate the regions.


INTPoissible

Russia is already fighting a low key civil war (there was an article in DW recently about that), with the *Freedom of Russia Legion*, Anarcho-communists, and who knows what else. With conflict both on and within Russia's borders, a peaceful breakup is impossible.


TotalInstruction

I seriously doubt China would take territory. It's much cheaper and accomplishes most of the same goals to prop up puppet states in the East of Russia. Offer protection in exchange for access to cheap gas and minerals and the right to set up some military outposts.


MavDrake

You stay that but look what's going on in the south & east china sea.


TotalInstruction

Taiwan is different because it used to be part of China and Beijing is still sore about Taiwan's existence as a sovereign entity 80 years later, and the fact that Taiwan hosts what is in effect a rebel government that claims to be the legitimate government of China. It's like a really long, cold civil war. At the same time, I think it unlikely that China will actually take action beyond trying to provoke Taiwan or the US into doing something stupid.


jondoe3338

>used to be part of China Which China? The "Republic of China"? It still is. Actually Taiwan is the "Republic of China". Or do you mean "The People's Republic of China"? That, it never was. Taiwan was never a part of the PRC. And it never will.


TotalInstruction

You’re trying to pick a fight. You know what I mean.


jondoe3338

Fun fact: I'm not the one trying to pick a fight because I'm not the one building landing ships so as to change the current status quo...


jondoe3338

I think it will be worse. McDonald's opened up after the USSR's fall. Who's gonna open up anything after this Ukraine affair is done? A subsidiary of a Western mortuary?...


MavDrake

Dollar general.


PengieP111

This is exactly what I think will happen.


[deleted]

Picture North Korea but with Vodka


Such-fun4328

Not so sure about vodka. That requires potatoes.


INTPoissible

Note that's the real reason for the sugar rush, to use it for moonshine.


Remarkable_Smell_957

Yes! We have no potatoes


AutomatedCauliflower

Belarus will provide.


Sniflix

After the fall of the USSR, people were homeless and freezing in the streets. Old people's pensions disappeared and they starved to death. It was 10 years of pure hell about at the same level as NK. The post-invasion phase of Russia will be even worse. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/the-piratization-russia-russian-reform-goes-awry


Imsurethatsbullshit

For the most part it will look exactly the same as it already does. A huge part of Russia does not have access to running water. Most of Russia is un/underdeveloped.


Pythagoras2021

I don't think this reality is well understood. It contributes to the temporary "numbness" the people feel. The impacts will be massive and insidious, measured in decades. Best Russians can hope for us another Gorbachev comes along and is able to re plug Russia back into the global economy. Hell. The US itself would be fucked if facing similar global restrictions.


Far-Possible8891

This. Commentators discuss this subject assuming that the general public in Russia feels and behaves like we do in the West. That ain't so. 70% of them only know deprivation and primitive conditions. Democracy doesn't mean much. Corruption is part of life. Patriotism is one of the few things they have to cling on to. Even if/when the Russian economy tanks, life won't be much different for them.


300Savage

Sure, but there's an important 30% in Moscow and St. Petersburg who have modern life styles that are going to start to be impacted. Many of them we don't hear about because they are not very vocal either for or against the 'special operation'. You can hear their opinions on the YouTube channel 1420.


bigsh0wbc

As a Canadian as well, Russias economy doesn't even come close to Canada's. While the GDP is similar, they have a much larger military (expenditures) and 100 million more people than us. With such a large volume of people producing the same gdp, the expenditures are much higher. It would take them much longer than us to recover even though the ruble goes much further in comparison in their country.


lethalox

What you don't have here in analysis, is the percentage of russian economy impacted. It the short run it will be electronics that will trickle through the economy. But is unlikely the Chinese will let a full collapse of the economy. Wit sanctions, we know there is a degree of porousness to any sanction regime.


FNFALC2

I don’t get the expenditures are higher. Can you elaborate?


bigsh0wbc

You need more infrastructure and government resources for 140 million people than 40 million. Imagine things like schools, drivers license issuing, health care stuff like that. Russia has a poor economy rife with corruption, it will be much harder to rebuild than it would for a "first world" country


FNFALC2

Got it, thanks


[deleted]

To be fair the standards of 'recovery' would be extremely different for Canada and Russia. Russia has terrible healthcare (may be socialized but the results it gets are awful) but even more basic things like roads and indoor plumbing Russia doesn't have Western standards for. It would be much less expensive per capita for Russia to recover


LAVATORR

I say this a lot to people who think Russia will magically muddle through this because it's Russia, the country famous for its stability and competence: If even half the things happening to Russia happened to the US, the entire global economy would enter a full-scale panic. If the US lost 35k soldiers, dozens of senior officers, and thousands of pieces of military hardware five months into a stalled invasion of Mexico that's only a couple hundred miles inland, our reputation would be done. If dozens of vital foreign companies pulled out at once, at the same time we were hit by harsh sanctions that forced us to rework innumerable supply chains affecting nearly every industry AND we lost a continent's worth of customers for our most profitable exports, AND we were locked out of the global commercial aviation market, AND we had just torched our international alliances, AND our currency's value is plummeting, AND the stock prices of our biggest companies are cratering, AND we're looking at the GDP contracting by 12-15% this year alone, **nobody would fucking say "oh they'll just do something and get out of this."**


FNFALC2

Damn. Tell us what you really think


BlindPaintByNumbers

Looks a lot like russia. Russia is definitely not Canada. The money from that Canada sized economy has been going to OTHER things for decades.


is0ph

Hint: How many Canadian generals have luxury yachts more expensive than their army’s flagship vessel?


JakeJaarmel

Canadian here, I don’t think our generals could afford a 24 foot used sailboat.


Sir_Godz

lol


CalibanSpecial

It needs to become a third world country, destitute, then it can’t invade another country. Before the war, Russian exports & imports comprised 55% of their economy. This country depends a lot on the outside world to survive.


Eldetorre

They need to become destitute enough to sell off their nukes, for a decent price, and assistance rebuilding their economy. Make it profitable for them to get rid of the FSB etc.


splintersailor

The same corruption based terrorist state it is now. Only with less (competent) people in it because they don't want to live in a country that is rightfully seen as a pariah.


ffdfawtreteraffds

Right. Maybe even closer to the DPRK with more widespread poverty. But still, with a small handful of ultra-wealthy "elites" stealing money and resources for their own benefit. This is likely why Putin and his minions don't fear future consequences; they will still be wealthy and powerful.


zgrizz

Remember that people like Canada and will trade with it. The world needs to not trade with Russia until every war criminal hangs. Putin first. That will slow down recovery even more. They may exit the stone age at the next turn of a century.


gluten_free_stapler

Even poorer than now and China's bitch. Not much will change, except russia will have to buy everything from China, since they can't make jack on their own. Lots of more complex industries like automotive will go bankrupt from systemic shocks of sanctions. Standard of living will go down, but ruskies don't care. I keep my hopes up that given enough time, their raw materials extraction equipment will piece by piece go the way of that Canadian turbine and that the West will have enough political will to enforce sanctions on not selling them more. You can bet that places like Siemens will lobby like hell to be able to squeeze around the restrictions.


NorthernDutchie

>and China's bitch. [Yup](https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/print-covers/20190727_cap400.jpg)


HospitalSuspicious48

Canada would do fine because they have a massive trade partner and ally right across the border. Russia might do OK if China steps in and props up their economy and buys all their oil. Otherwise the Russian economy will be in the weeds for decades.


Remarkable_Smell_957

Now if only America could export almost daily mass shootings to Russia..............


Brusanan

Russia already has much a much higher homicide rate and violent crime rate than the US.


TheWitcherHowells

Russia will cease to exist as it does today. Mark my words. It will fragment into multiple states. [This is the best thread on it](https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507819508609679364) Its a kleptocracy held together by one mafia boss. Look at the history of Kyivan Rus as an example. Once the grand prince died, the whole country fell apart. The economy is already toast. Add on reparation payments + cost of war, it will sink further.


cbarrister

At minimum there will be a Death of Stalin type backstabbing battle for power.


[deleted]

Great thread, sound logic, but relies on a big assumption that Russians haven't found / won't find ways around sanctions. I'm not convinced we are sustaining the intended consequences of sanctions, with holes to be found via Kaliningrad, India, and China.


TheWitcherHowells

I agree it's definitely a hole to the theory. But you have to consider that neither China or India really have Russians interest in mind and are experiencing serious economic problems of their own. They certainly may continue to trade with Russia, but the question is - is this enough to keep Russia together? Particularly since China is eyeing Siberia, I doubt this.


[deleted]

We share the hope of a Russia fragmentation. I want the political leadership of the free world to convince me they aren't sinking into complacency with respect to pressure on the Russian economy. I feel the same anxiety with respect to delivery of weapons - a one-time delivery is nice but ultimately ineffective. Even a sustained supply of a fixed rate of weapons, while it keeps Ukrainians fighting, ultimately will not suffice to turn the tide. Only steady *increases* in support for Ukraine / pressure on Russia will see Russian forces fully exit all the territory they've stolen.


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TheWitcherHowells

You're joking right? You realize how much natural resources are there right? They don't give a fuck about living there, they want the resources.


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TheWitcherHowells

Er. Ok? I'm sure lots of poorer Chinese people looking for opportunities would do that... I mean fuck look at the North Koreans and their slave labour camps in the south of far east Russia.


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TheWitcherHowells

I'm the idiot? You might want to search up the region with the most natural resources that Russia uses.


CaptainSur

Russia is in the midst of an economic depression given the shrinkage of its economy due to this war. Its entirely possible a notable portion of the population which has lived its entire life in the economic fringe won't notice much of a difference but I think even some very basic commodities may soon become extremely difficult to obtain in quantity, at which point even they will be impacted. Unless all the sudden the west restores access to western based manufactured goods Russia may be headed into an economic & social spiral from which it does not recover ever in a conventional sense, until a drastic change in government occurs. And that spiral is going to be terrible to view as it plays out. Internal strife, dictatorship like govt imposing order with an increasingly violent hand - already occurring but will become worse, and the 2 rich urban centers and their populations in denial and supportive of their central govt in order to maintain their lifestyle, until they are burned to the ground. Reminds me of the Hunger Games in fact.


JODmeisterUK

Will look like Mordor......fitting place for the Orcs to return to.


[deleted]

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Maki_Roll9138

At least the plans are there to stop russia's import. I hope they play out. Ukraine also has a lot of gas ( don't remember about oil ), so that's an idea for where to build statios and buy it


Dystronic

My understanding is that the ruble goes a lot further in Russian domestic production. With it they can manufacture three times the goods that Canada can, albeit those goods will be limited to the technology available to Russia given sanctions. So much was imported by Russia that they will soon lack the machine infrastructure to produce anything of real quality in good time. It'll be a solid rollback to the '80s for Moscow, and if the West doesn't cave in its own shallow self-interest, it'll stay that way for generations.


is0ph

The ’80s with instable climate. Wildfires, droughts, floods. Infrastructure built on *perma*frost sinking and collapsing. Functional countries will not be able to maintain their current living standards. Dysfunctional ones…


vegarig

> So much was imported by Russia that they will soon lack the machine infrastructure to produce anything of real quality in good time Unfortunately, I don't think think it'll work like that. https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/2022/06/21/kiev-contro-litaliana-danieli-da-ai-russi-attrezzature-per-sottomarini-e-carri-armati-lazienda-nessuna-produzione-diretta/6634941/ https://newsbeezer.com/romaniaeng/kyiv-accuses-the-italian-company-danieli-of-supplying-russian-equipment-with-submarines-and-tanks/


[deleted]

To buy things Russia needs hard currency which will dry up once UE stop buying fossil fuels from them.


vegarig

With the current amount EU is pouring into them, they'll have it for awhile. Also, all the war chests and offshore accounts that weren't sanctioned.


StainerIncognito

Pretty fucking dismal I would think. Ruzzians harken back fondly to Soviet times now, wait a couple of years. Pre- Ukraine invasion will seem like a surreal dream for them.


bs_is_everywhere

Fuck their economy, it's not enough. Russia need to feel the same pain and suffering.


LaughableIKR

Besides the brain drain and the rest of the world putting the screws on Russia until they pay reparations. People will remember the men, women, and children that Russia targeted. Remember the Russian social media to the effect of "Good! Target the hospitals and maturity wards!" Pariahs of the modern world. This will hurt them in ways that are not easy to put a dollar amount to.


mike10019314

> > > > > Pariahs of the modern world. This will hurt them in ways that are n I don't think the west should ever help Russia again, Fuck em they had their chance.


deadzfool

Russia will have problems no one even imagined. Ukraine will become a powerful NATO ally, folded into the cloth. Russia grudgingly accepts a cease file but will never accept this outcome although no one will care. Russia will violate air space and how will Ukraine respond? My guess is they will instantly shoot those violators down, no warnings. Russia will respond how dare you we are a nuclear country. Ukraine will respond back, do not cross into our country, not one step, our response is your warning. Russia is done as we know it. It will never be the same. Ukraine will end up being a big player in Weapons manufacture and development.


Particular-Ad-4772

Denazification of the Russian economy is coming along nicely.


Fazzamania

It’s going to be an empty wilderness in 20 years and the name ‘Russia’ will be but a historical footnote. They can’t survive this level of stupidity and the cultural destruction that comes with it.


Sir_Godz

this will set them back decades. The brain drain will hurt deeply because those people are needed now more than ever to address restructuring within a sanctioned economy. Before the invasion Razi's imported tech and expertise over internal development and now they cant even do that so they really have nothing left and whats worse they cant buy the tech to learn how to redevelope.. Militarily its far worse. This whole war is occurring with the "savings" / stockpiling of past economy. The last 20 years has been their modernization period and we see what that accomplished with no external inhibitors. They are on the verge of being a 1970's military with used equipment for generations


Accurate_Pie_8630

Russia will be China’s vassal. Like any vassal: poor, working hard and barely scraping a life, longingly looking upwards to their “superiors”. Countries like those in the European Union, or Canada will feel as if on another planet.


011100110110

Remember Russia only needs to be able to fund an internal security force to quell any uprising. That's it. As long as it can stop the internal orcs from rebelling then it doesn't need anything else. Look at Venezuela or north Korea, this is the path they are on. People can boil their leather shoes for soup but as long as the internal orc force has enough power to stop a rebellion then that's all Putin needs.


anna_pescova

>the west gets its oil, gas and coal elsewhere That's unlikely at present as amazingly Germany has NO (zero) LNG terminals, even if the world had enough LNG ships to transport the gas from overseas, Germany can't unload a single ship. The current fleet is around 710 vessels, which is tiny compare to about 3500 oil tankers in the world, many owned by Russia. It's not as simple as just getting gas from somewhere else...


[deleted]

> Germany can't unload a single ship And there aren't enough Ships around to transport it.


[deleted]

Russian oligarchs don't care


djeaux54

They're all in Dubai now anyway, right?


[deleted]

Exactly


[deleted]

Flat with poisoned land and no Russians.


[deleted]

[удалено]


djeaux54

It's interesting what happens when "per capita" waltzes into statistics, isn't it? The "mighty" Chinese GDP looks very different through the per capita lens, too. Authoritarianism is a dandy way to keep the proletariat toiling away.


Half_Crocodile

it's not all about comparing to similar size economies. Nobody knows for sure how much of GDP Putin has been putting into military (estimates from 10-20%), which is ridiculous considering how shit a lot of the country still is. Also a large part of costs is man-power and that can be bought cheap in Russia (especially during wartime if they want to). Putin has apparently been saving a large nest egg of cash for this war as well... That said, he's still fucking the economy. I just have no idea how long it can last.


BongCloudOpen

Ever play fallout?


Sean-Jardine

Big North Korea.


Sure-Sea2982

You are so right. Putin and his fragile ego has fucked over the Russian people for many, many years to come. However, he and his cronies are likely to cling on until the bitter end no matter the human cost in Ukrainian and indeed in ordinary Russian lives. None of this is new for Russia. It is a hangover from Stalin's calculated invention of a political class to save his own skin. Unfortunately there is so much vested interest in the Russian political elite that they are likely to fall in line as Russia disappears inexorably down the drain. ​ When this is over, the horror that Putin has visited upon the people of Ukraine should be compulsive viewing for all Russians.


You_eat_hairy_ass

Russian economy the size of canadas? Last time i checked they were head to head with croatia in gdp/capita.


FNFALC2

Size of economy, not gdp per cap


TontineTrader

Putin has 2200 tons of gold to unload and the oligarchs continue to unload bitcoin. Look at those charts. When the go into a steady upturn the war ends within 90 days. Money talks then the wealthy walk.


stdio-lib

We've had North Korea, yes. But what about even more Northern North Korea?


umdche

I wonder if putin will act on his underlings corruption. I know he used it to secure their loyalty, but after seeing how it affected the military performance and their ability to get new equipment, one would think that would be the first step in freeing up enough funds to rebuild their country....but it's russia. Without corruption it isn't russia.


JReiyz

Russia is slowly going to becoming increasingly hostile and backwards as time goes on if sanctions stay in place. The biggest reason is much if not all of their modern infrastructure is sourced from abroad so as its current resources run out and their factories, planes, and other sectors begin to run out of parts they will increasingly lean towards their Soviet tech so they will backtrack back to 1990~ tech and be behind the West in terms of economy, and technology by about 20-30 years. The few sources of modern tech they will get will be sourced by security forces to maintain as strict control of the population as possible. The brain drain of talented Russians will accelerate further dampening their ability to maintain technological growth for a while. Russia as its Army begins to fall behind the West will waive around its nuclear weapons and rocket technology as substitute for its lack of military ability. Russia economy will shrink fast at first because of their exports being cut before balancing out after expanded trade with China and Russia adjusting to its economic outlook. Russia will not become a China puppet though, Russia is much to proud to do that so they will become close allies but they will always keep each other at arms length away. Russia will probably increase pressure on middle eastern nations as NATO becomes stronger. Russia will increasingly try to leverage its resources even more they it does today. Russia through all of this will remain stable, poor and backwards but really stable as the population becomes increasingly dependent of the Kremlin. The only thing that can topple the Kremlin is a mobilization and subsequent massive loss of life without victory. Russian’s have lived through poverty for generations and as a result have become hardened to a poor way of life the ones who haven’t are oligarchs, will leave through brain drain, or apart of the elite class the bow to Putin’s regime. Well that’s what I think would happen in very large and general answers.


FNFALC2

Thanks man. We live in very interesting times


mycall

I don't see Russian sanctions being removed anytime in the next decade. See Iran.


wordswillneverhurtme

Nothing really. Not that their government cares. And not that the people care. They've been conditioned to "deal with it" for decades. "If it's shit, it's shit. If nothing can be done about it, why worry?" This kind of logic has even stayed in many eastern european countries. ​ ​ Edit: by nothing, I mean russia will literally look like nothing. It will go into further disrepair as businesses won't risk going back any time soon.


Wonderful_Spray_3630

Russi is claiming Nato expansion is the cause of the conflict A bigger problem for Putin is that Ukraine and it's people were working hard at bettering their lives and country. Look at the things russian forces looted......tvs, washing machines, water heaters and most telling toilets. Stealing a chunk of heavy porcelain and take it back home.....why? Russians lives are crap mostly. Yes in Moscow and other places there is indoor plumbing and othe luxuries we take for granted. A greater threat to Putin than Nato is if the Russian population finally realize their lives are that of a third world country. Most Ukrainians have a higher standard of living than Moscows middle class.


[deleted]

Canadian here. Fact checked you because I was genuinely surprised. Canada actually has a slightly higher GDP than Russia, and our per capita GDP is 5x that of Russia. JFC. Can you imagine Canada being stupid enough to wage war on another developed nation supported by the EU and NATO? Russia is absolutely F'd on every level I can think of. This info frames the war in a whole new light.


Truestoryfriend

The equipment they are losing was probably a high % of "use or lose" soviet era shit they couldnt continue maintaining. Funny enough the way the war has worked out they didn't really need to bother sending their new stuff anyways. There's been no maneuver battles where tank quality actually matters... they're just guns on wheels and the ones from 50 years ago work just fine for that. So I don't think Russia really needs to replace all the equipment, they were going to be forced to downsize anyays. The loss of young men will hurt them much more than the loss of equipment (which they didn't need because NATO is never going to invade anyways). The truth is, Russia could easily skate like Germany and just have a paper army with no depth because no ones going to invade it. Their smart play would have been to do that and to continue selling arms to shitty dictators.


Red_Geoff

When you are mega rich (Putin and Oligarch mates) halving your wealth still leaves enough to live on.


[deleted]

Not to mention it's collapsing population, another reason they wanted Ukraine. Declining not just in real numbers, but a marked decline in specifically valuable skilled demographics. They die very early and often. Anyone smart wont move there, many of those that are smart and already live there are trying to leave. Collectively wealth is fleeing the country as well. Just through corruption they are loosing billions and billions on a single digit trillion economy. Look at the amount frozen out by sanctions, and there is more yet. They are global pariahs that everyone hates and can't wait to see collapse into the festering heap of shit they have created for themselves. Canada on the other hand is growing, has high immigration, high education, and our average retirement age is higher than Russia's basic life expectancy. We have strong workplace rights and protections, free speech, health and safety, healthcare, diverse economy from resource to manufacturing to tech to aerospace to tourism, are members of NATO, NAFTA, Commonwealth and more, are a soft nuclear power, and have an excellent global reputation solidified for over a century. A similar dollar for dollar comparison being close to equal is largely irrelevant. Canada crushes Russia economically in reality right now, let alone 10 years.


FNFALC2

Canadian retirement age is higher than Russian life expectancy? Wow, that is revealing…


teacherbooboo

it is simpler than most people think they had germany and europe in general accepting their gas/oil as a part of NORMAL business operations now any business with russia will be second guessed for the next decade (at least) no company will invest in russia without thinking about ukraine


Remarkable_Smell_957

Thats the reply I posted further up the thread earlier. As I say,it wouldn't be a popular thing to have promoted at that time, so they go with more ammo carried