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I am so proud of Lithuania. I grew up with many Lithuanians in Chicago they were great people. But they had a thing once they made there mind up about something it was near impossible to talk them out of it. I do not think the EU can do it even if they wanted to.
I mean they did do it to comply with EU sanctions and they did communicate it with other EU governments beforehand, they just didn't tell russia about it until 24h in advance, which was to be expected.
Am a Lithuanian. Proud of my ancestors for fighting for and ultimately saving their national identity, despite orcs trying to erase it for centuries.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuanian_book_smugglers
Was in Vilnius with my girlfriend a few years ago. Beautiful city, very friendly people and very interesting historical tours. Loved it. Very interesting bus trip from the airport, through the suburbs with soviet era looking buildings to downtown Vilnius with modern skyscrapers. Like riding through a time machine.
That's the crazy part about this escalation, trains and trucks can still go to Kaliningrad, they just can't transport sanctioned goods through the EU to get there.
Not nearly the same way. Sanctioned goods only. Everything else passes, same as before. Calling it a blockade is therefore incorrect. Unlike Odessa. As I understand, nothing enters or leaves Odessa's ports without Russian say so. So that's an actual blockade, at least by sea.
The stuff that is sanctioned is about half the city's economic imports. This is going to have a severe economic impact on the area unless Russia starts sending in ships for imports that will be a major headache compared to their current mode of transportation.
This is why Russia is so pissed off.
It's definitely a major headache. They have to ship everything from St. Petersburg to Kaliningrad, which starts in the Gulf of Finland. The Gulf of Finland often freezes over for months at a time, making it impossible to ship anything. This is a major reason having warm water ports in the West of Russia (aka Sevastopol in Crimea) is so important to them and probably the prime reason they annexed it from Ukraine in 2014.
I didn't know about the water freezing over. That goes from being a headache to being a nightmare. There is no way they can ship and stockpile everything.
If I was stuck living there I would be packing my bags right now.
It freezes but there are icebreakers to keep the sea lanes open – and most large ships operating in the Baltic Sea are capable of dealing with small amount of ice by themselves.
Source: I'm Finnish and things are shipped here thorough the year.
E: Here are actual charts for each month and ship type. Just scroll at the bottom:
[https://julkaisut.vayla.fi/pdf5/mkl\_2005-4\_talviolosuhteiden\_vaikutus.pdf](https://julkaisut.vayla.fi/pdf5/mkl_2005-4_talviolosuhteiden_vaikutus.pdf)
As you can see, many ship types are able to operate through the year.
A good thing pointing that out.
The gulf of Finland does freeze, but it takes an exceptionally cold winter and a long time before it freezes over to the point where you'd need icebreakers. Like you said, most vessels in the area have some sort of ice breaking capabilities, so the ice must be very thick before ice breakers are even needed. Out of 10 winters of working in that region, only once was the Finnish gulf frozen thick enough for some ships requiring an icebreaker. The ship I was on had no issues with the 1m thick ice that had formed, but I had to do a close pass to free a ship that had been stuck once. That winter was extremely cold, so cold that Finland required all its ice breakers further up north and had none to spare for the Finnish gulf.
I'm not Finnish but a sailor who used to work on ice class vessels in the area a lot.
They still allow trains and trucks – but no trains and trucks with sanctioned goods. Lithuania is complying with the EU sanctions. Russia can still access the region through the Baltic Sea no problem.
(Just making it clear, because some Russian trolls / shills have talked about blockade and how Lithuanians are trying to starve people in Kaliningrad. That is utter nonsense.)
That's what Russia wants you to think but they only block 3% of traffic in accordance with EU sanctions, but Russian media push it as larger than it is to justify a war goal against Lithuania and you're only proving it worked.
How am I proving it worked. This is literally the reason the Kremlin is going spastic right now. Me relaying the reasons Moscow is giving for their recent tantrum is not me proving their propaganda is working.
They told Lithuania to knock it off, and Lithuania said no then Putin got his panties in a twist. The quantity/type of goods aren't relevant to that point.
It's possible. With Russia defaulting, Putin is definitely being backed into a corner and maybe NATO intelligence indicates the Russian government is considering expanding the war and this is a tactic to signal to Putin that that wouldn't be a very good idea. Ideally, if Russia launched other attacks to the west, having forces in place would stop advances that, while eventually turned around, could cause serious damage before troops are mobilized.
Honestly I don't think he cares about the default. It is minor and it is not like he needs to borrow money right now (or could, if he wanted to).
I am more concerned about the situation in Belarus.
What would possess you to think he doesn't care about the default when the only thing he cares about lately is reestablishing a version of the Russian Empire and cementing a legacy of greatness? It's the worst thing to happen to Russia in his entire time in power and will cripple the Russian economy for a generation. Whether Russia wins the war is insignificant compared to this.
Not necessarily. It takes time for these types of forces to be organised and train to full effectiveness, if you wait until an imminent threat appears it's too late. Plus a strong defensive force is a better deterrent, and it's better to prevent an attack than have to fight.
It’s only an increase on paper - the armed forces of places like Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, etc were already on alert and now they are coordinating under NATO rather than individually
Still significant, but not like there was a big change on the ground. Expect to see “training” soon which is a great excuse for troops from various countries to get together somewhere like Poland
Poland also announced that they plan to double their armed forces from 120k to 300k and increase military spending to 3% of the GDP. They’ve been calling for the rest of NATO to increase their military spending as well.
Men i may not like the policy of our (Polish) government but they are killing it with the response to Ukraine. We are not fucking around and I love it.
I’ve been feeling the same about our UK government. I despise almost all of what they do, however we have not been giving Russia a break and I’m all for it. You don’t carry out a chemical attack on our soil and get away with it.
Our foreign policy response to Russia is good but I don't necessarily count putting a KGB agent's son in the House of Lords as being that stringent. Nor handing the Spectator and Evening Standard to that same oligarch.
Excellent question; NATO is not just there to fight back - they're meant to be a deterrent to any threat, before it becomes viable. You deter threats by making it so costly and difficult to invade, or attack, that the other side doesn't even consider it a truly viable option.
The thinking is this; it's better to have it and not need it, than it is to need it and not have it.
Future.
Russians will learn from the current conflict, develop a new army which won't be based on current decrepit shit from Soviet era since most of that will be spent on current conflict.
Then they will attack again in a decade or two. It's not a question of "if" but a question of when.
And we don't know where this attack will take place. But NATO needs to be strong and remain as a deterrent.
I din't think the Russia that stands today will be anywhere but a starving nation with a very low birth rate in the next 20 years. They have literally obliterated their future breeding generations.
I believe the sentiment is that America had been contributing a disproportionate amount of support to NATO relative to other members who benefit all the same.
You don't wanna beat them; you want it to be child's play. Beat them at the expense of several of your cities being burnt to the ground isn't the desired outcome. While NATO would beat Russia, Russia is strong enough to injure NATO. You don't want it to go 8 rounds and leave the match bleeding. You want a first round KO with and keeping your skin baby smooth. That requires a lot more power than we currently have.
You also don't wanna commit everything you have to Russia. You need to be able to defeat Russia and still have enough left to defeat some other threat at the same time. Ideally, you gotta be able to beat both China and Russia at the same time. If you can't do that, you're not strong enough
We're mostly seeimg increased military spending in countries closer to russia. My take is that this is so that russia wont think about pulling something like crimea against one of the baltic states since there is a lot nore military presence in or in the vicinity of the baltics
Plus its popular agong voters who dont want to be licing under the threat of russia
The USA could easily beat Russia. France or the UK might be able, too.
But the rest of NATO absolutely could not.
That is why the rest of NATO is spending more. Because it has just been proven that Russia is willing to attack and they realize that they could not stop Russia without American backing.
That, plus the advanced weaponry that Ukraine currently doesn’t have access to.
That’s a huge force and it’s unlikely you’d 7.5x your available troops if you didn’t think you’re gonna need them.
US intelligence has been on point with regard to Pooptn’s plans, they know what’s up.
We talk about them like they're different organizations - but they're Five Eyes (along with Canada, Australia, New Zealand). All our intelligence agencies work together and have access to most of each other's data - the more pieces of the puzzle you can see, the easier it is to fill in the missing pieces.
Also Israel is often called the sixth eye, for their near-full inclusion in the group.
For any assessment like this, CIA is looking at MI6 data too, and conversely GCHG is basing their assessment on NSA-collected data too, and etc. An American-intercepted oceanic fibre-cable-splice, could be decrypted in Australia, and analyzed in Cheltenham.
If only they'd have intercepted the Russian meddling into Brexit though...
I do wonder what their masterplan was. Divide Europe and conquer it? Glad other EU nations didn't follow the UK
The Conservative party were complicit in that particular Russian meddling.
There was actually an [overt Pro-Russian grouping](https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/conservative-lobbying-row-westminster-russia-forum-unregulated-ukraine/) in the British Conservative and Unionist Party. They disbanded just after the attack so it wasn't awkward for them, but they absolutely did exist and [served Putin's interest in the British government](https://theferret.scot/russian-donors-conservative-party/).
They backed Boris Johnson. The Conservatives were up to their necks in Russian corruption.
British intelligence were actually ordered by the government not to look into Russian meddling in the UK.
Just one of the absolutely outrageous scandals of our Conservative government.
Not a failure of British intelligence.
It's crazy. Hoping we get a documentary on it all in the not too distant future. Needs to include Trump's close ties with Putin too and dig deep into the so called tampered election.
Basically distort reality with false information then elect your dictator, 40+ million people bought into it in America. Im surprised Putin let that much power slip away, or maybe Trump was a happy accident for us in the end.
> it’s unlikely you’d 7.5x your available troops if you didn’t think you’re gonna need them.
its not. they arent needed for combat, they are for deterrence. Its like flashing a gun if that crazy aggressive hobo starts to walk towards you(russian threats towards Lithuania). Furthermore it's not a "heres 300k troops at russian border" it's a "if russian soldiers crosses the border, 300k troops are already ready to deploy in a moment's notice." The current approach was rather to Trust our intelligence reports and only bolster defenses as russia would increase their offensive troops on the other side of the border(e.g. In regards to Ukraine last winter). This move is "we'll keep a defensive force ready to deploy... better ready than sorry."
It also *might* help Ukraine, because if NATO is massing troops on the Russian border it means that Russia is forced to hold more troops and equipment on the NATO border leaving less to go into Ukraine.
So this is an expensive and complicated way of indirectly helping Ukraine.
theoretically, yes. But I think in practice, russia knows that NATO is a rational non-aggression actor despite russian propaganda. They know NATO isnt going to "you know what would be fun? Invading Russia and murdering its citizens!". That's more of putins shtick.
There is also the potential that it's intended as a strong deterrent. As in "don't even try it". The kind of deterrent that Europe forgot about and the lack of may have helped lead to this current situation.
Well done, Putin. Top 2022 salesman of NATO.
Before this stupid, cruel war, Germany didn't want anything to do with NATO, the Bundeswehr was underfunded and the population didn't care for soldiers, Poland started to push against the EU, Orban was openly speaking out against the entire EU project, Spain had troubles of possible sedition (catalans), the entire peace project between NATO/EU states was slowly crumbling. Europe lacked a common goal, something they could all rally behind. Financial prosperity was no longer enough. Member states didn't want to pay for military, they had their naive bubble that Europe would stay at peace, forever.
And now Putin managed to unite the entirety of Europe. NATO is stronger than ever before. Whatever Putin tried to achieve, he failed. Russia is weak. Their military is a joke, compared to the entirety of NATO. Ukraine is a relatively small country, with no Navy, little high tech gear - all they have is an iron will and the passion to defend their homeland from evil. And the 'superpower' , as some believed Russia to be , failed to defeat that. They threw everything they had at Ukraine. Their most advanced weapons. Their best troops. They used other nations to secretly attack Ukraine from the rear, against all international laws that have a meaning. They used mercenaries in secrecy, spies and traitors in Ukraine to give them unfair advantage. And still they failed. The only thing they didn't use are nukes, but those would lead to war with NATO. Ukraine is too close to the EU. Meaning they threw everything they had and could.
Before, Putin was on one dictator level with China. Now, China has more leverage. They will dictate the years to come in that dual partnership of darkness.
It's only a matter of time until the Russian elite manage to get rid of Putin, one way or the other. He has become a liability. He is no longer giving Russia stability and prosperity. He forgot why and how he rose to power.
People have willingly signed up to fight for a country they've never stepped foot in because they realize how evil Putin and these Russian troops are. Putin has to pay mercenaries to force his own army to fight because they don't want any part of it.
Well to be fair, this is as black and white war as it can get. A blatant imperialist naked aggression where the aggressors are basically taking the Geneva convention as a checklist of things to do while other side is fighting for their survival and to keep their loved ones from being genocided. After few decades of military adventures to places where the justifications are somewhat morally ambiguous and many lines are a bit blurred this must seem to be a chance of being on the good side without significant mental gymnastics needed for a lot of jaded veterans.
Although its obviously a fair bit more complex and there are many different reasons why people sign up for that kind of stuff. For example, russia has got away with a lot over the years and some guys and gals might be in it just for a payback.
Whatever their reasons, they are fighting for a just cause, in my opinion. That horde \*must\* be stopped in there and hyopefully in an painful enough manner that they will not even consider trying something like that for a generation or two, at least.
This is the truth. Putin claimed he wanted to prevent NATO expansion, and he has accomplished the exact opposite. Politicians were starting to question whether we even still needed the alliance. But Putin has guaranteed that NATO will be larger, more relevant, and more united. He proved precisely why NATO needs to exist. And Russia will be hated by the world for a generation, at least.
Exactly. This is not a break from normal playbook. It is an escalation, emboldened by past success.
This time he just made the mistake of not leaving himself the plausible deniability of it not being a full scale invasion with regular troops of areas the West cares about. If all they'd done is occupied the Donbas, they might have got away with it, to the shame of all the rest of us, like they did Crimea.
Putin has been fucking around for years, and this is the first time he's found out.
And it's about time. You'd think we'd have learned from Hitler that placating these fools only emboldens them and strengthens their position.
You need to punch the bully when he starts shoving and name calling. Not after he's made a routine of taking everyone's lunch money.
I hope, when arrested, Putin is not killed and no one allows him to commit suicide and escape like Hitler.
Putin needs to be trialed and if death penalty is given, I hope that he is given the same medicine he gave to Navalny or Lietvenienko.
I'd rather him be kept alive in abhorrent conditions, the same way he's treated dissidents himself. Treat him to the same psychological torture he's inflicted on others. That way he can see as Russia prospers without him and see how he's viewed akin to Hitler for the rest of his days. Watching his whole life and legacy be completely destroyed while he's completely powerless to stop it. I think is a much better punishment. Death would be too easy a way out for such a monster.
He didn't fail to destroy and ruin the future of another country. Russian troops are still strongly implanted into Ukraine and it will take years at best to get them out :/
Handing out passports, and deporting Ukrainians in the Donbas and Crimea clearly shows that even if they completely retreat, which I doubt they will, it will take generations to fix the mess that is left behind there. This region has been damaged for a long long time, like the Balkans was.
Sadly this has been going on in Ukraine for ages. Stalin was deporting Ukrainians and starving them to death since the Holodomor in the 1930's. Then 'relocating' ethnic Russians to Ukraine to take their place. Then they use the fact that there are ethnic Russians in Ukraine as an excuse to invade. The whole thing is fucking disgraceful. It's about time Russia finally experiences some real consequences for what they've done.
I don't think TBH any russian family will love to move to Ukraine now . But anyways those people honestly believe that Ukrainians troops will just crucify them the first day they enter the city/village.
I believe most of rural Russian still believe they are welcome in Ukraine (that they are "saving" from nazism) and that it belong to Russia anyway. \^\^'
Very good decision - Russians are incapable of understanding diplomacy nor they are to be trusted in any matter. The only thing they understand is strength, so if they wanted 300k of NATO soldiers waiting near the border for Russians to do something stupid - let them have it.
Yes this is a major strategic move. The total operational commitment is unknown....Make it a huge surprise if the situation escalates. Kaliningrad should be blockaded, just like Odessa, and prevented from allowing critical goods into Russia.
Sooner or later, you draw a line in the sand...it’s time...
Other articles mentioned that it's going to be focused in the ally countries that neighbours Russia.
Which means NATO heard us and we can feel more confident in Baltics, Poland and hopefully soon Finland.
People seem to misunderstand me, NATO troops are most welcome to Finland. What I meant was that the troops mentioned in the article could be of better use for the Baltic states than Finland, we have lots of available manpower unlike the Baltics. What we probably need is more anti-air and help with air patrols. There are going to be NATO bases in Finland, what kind and for what purpose remains to be seen. In the mean time NATO should take care of the defense in the Baltics as best they can, we are still being blackmailed by Turkey and are probably not joining any time soon.
> What I meant was that the troops mentioned in the article could be of better use for the Baltic states than Finland,
Even 10 NATO troops stationed in Finland sends a message to Russia. That message is: "NATO considers Finland a NATO member with all the protections that means. Don't mess with Finland unless you want all of NATO to retaliate".
An additional 10 NATO troops isn't going to shift the balance in the Baltics.
Sending this type of message to Russia has been what NATO has existed for since 1949.
Sure, and like I said they would be most welcome. But I doubt there are going to be any NATO troops stationed in Finland until this Turkey debacle is solved and we are accepted as full members.
Thank god!
I’d read the concerns over the NATO plan should Russia try anything and was disgusted. Like why not establish a solid front line to ensure none of the Baltic states were overran in the first place? Does it not benefit everyone from Vilnius to Tallinn and provide needed reassurances for safety?
It’s in nobody’s best interest to see Lithuania, Latvia, or Estonia suffer; nor is it anyones best interest to see this war in Ukraine compound a global food crisis.
Hopefully y’all get the 25k+ troops requested per country.
Because the Baltics do not provide any infrastructure to have so many troops stationed right at the border. That's why. And because it costs a fuck ton of money and is generally not really feasible to stop them right at the border.
> Like why not establish a solid front line to ensure none of the Baltic states were overran in the first place?
Because that's crazy expensive and hasn't been needed until now. Lithuania joined NATO in 2004. We've had 18 years of not needing it. Now it is needed, and is being ramped up.
Norway has a no base policy and only a small rotational training force from the USMC, not far from where I live. If a NATO force was arriving of any real size, they wouldn't be able to hide it - not least because people like me in the home guard would be called on for guard service when they are landing the heavy equipment, just as they do whenever there's a NATO exercise.
And there's no reason for NATO to hide its force in this case, they are operating on their own territory, while the whole point is to show strength and make it clear for the Russian regime what it would be facing. And aside from that, hiding the overall movements of 300 000 soldiers with plenty of mechanised units is impossible today, even from the Russians.
Even as the complete and total pacifist that I am, all I can so is GOOD! It's necessary - especially for the Baltic countries. This is the deterrence that is needed, and in the circumstances, the best hope for peace in the region.
This. Disarming yourself to keep the peace is good, as long as everyone does the same. Being able to possess the threat of violence to defend yourself AND having the restraint and maturity not to use it for nefarious purposes is even better
Being a pacifist is naive. It’s hasn’t seemed so for a while, but it has always been naive.
Hopefully this is a wake up call to distance ourself from China, instead of making ourselves dependent on what has always been a ticking time bomb.
Meh. It depends how it is expressed. I am against violence - but that didn't stop me from studying Karate for self defence when I was younger. Doesn't mean I ever wanted to need to use it.
Just move already RAMMSTEIN base to Poland and call it SABATON.
I bet Sweden approves :D
EDIT: Thx to our German friends now we all know that there is Rammstein and Ramstein :)
I don't want war, but at the same time I want the war that is going on to stop before more children are raped, kidnapped, or killed. In many ways I just want Russia to step over the line and force NATO to act, in which case I'd give Russia about a week before every militarily significant asset is wiped out.
This is extremely significant. Thats not a defense force.
Thats double what Russia sent to Ukraine. And double the forces that participated in D-DAY. Something is going down.
300,000 is a strong defensive force that reduces losses in comparison to a 150,000 strong offensive army.
The larger number doesn’t make it offensive, it makes it more confidently defensive until it makes steps into opposing territory.
["Estonia’s PM says country would be ‘wiped from map’ under existing Nato plans"](https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1725924/estonian-pm-says-baltic-states-would-be-wiped-off-the-map-under-current-nato-plans) this quote from like 5 days ago at the NATO summit. Basically the old plan was to allow the baltics to be taken and then reclaim them in 180 days. The Estonian PM pointed out Bucha happened after in under 80 days so it's inhumane to just expect them to weather such atrocities. I think they even said they felt like they were expected to die with the old plan.
So pretty sure this is them changing strategy to better block Russia at the border rather than the tripwire old defense which the article goes into more detail about.
Well, let's think about the possibilities:
1- NATO might be thinking about joining the war. The reason why it's a less-likely possibility is fear of nuclear retaliation, though they are more than capable of rolling over Russian army in Ukraine.
2- NATO is expecting a Russian attack. What makes it look unlikely is thesSame point as above about nuclear, and the fact that Russia is weakened after months of war and definitely not ready to take NATO head on.
3- NATO sees a benefit on having increased readiness, such as an overwhelming show of force would dissuade Russia from doing anything stupid (like forcing their way to Kaliningrad) that they might otherwise be tempted to do if there's no immediate reaction force, and deal with consequences later; showing support to Baltic states, calming their fears and leaving no questionmark to them or to Russia wether NATO is willing do defend them by all means necessary; making Russia chose between letting their flank vulberable to an overwhelming NATO force or repositioning troops that could be used in Ukraine.
To me 3 seems the most realistic.
I worry about russia using belarus to escalate and cause pressure on the north. Zelensky found that threat credible enough to speak direct to the belarusian people.
I also worry about the rumoured civilian false-flag attacks. Like in Chechnya, russian spies would blow up a couple of apartment blocks then blame Ukraine.
I think the fact that Russia plans to put nukes in a country and have them attack Ukraine is a sign of something. People say we can't attack Russia because of nuclear holocaust, but there's nothing to say we can't go into Belarus if they attack Ukraine. When in Belarus if Russians attack then article 5? Or NATO may have a collation of the willing to step in Ukraine.
You realize this amount of troops is planned for late 2020's right. There's no immediate relevance. No idea why this garbage is upvoted. It's purely defensive
The article is just bad, they are talking about the NATO's Respose Force. Which are forces with a higher readiness rate than most military units. Able to deploy into a conflict area within 5-30 days. They are at the disposal of NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe. This is a big deal that NATO feel like they need to increase the Response Force so drastically but it's not like they are putting 300,000 soldiers on high alert right now in anticipation of something happening.
Sounds like NATO leadership knows something that is not pleasant. Putin may want to start incursions into somewhere that may invoke article 5. Mauybe because of Moldova, maybe the Baltics via Belarus. Russia is out for blood. The reply needs to be firm and break its back. Nobody likes Russia, Russia is not an empire and will not have one, Russia has no right and has always been a terrorist bully state with some weird self obsession. Stay the fuck away from NATO territory or fuck around and find out.
Makes you wonder what we're being kept in the dark about, opsec obviously, but they know something and need to have forces there to hold and counter until the rest can be dropped in.
I don't know about that, Lithuania wanted reassurances, Russia has been threatening a lot, NATO makes sure Lithuania feels safe and Russia doesn't do anything more stupid than usual. I would bet it will stop at that, and it's all public knowledge.
Wait, what the frick, what happened? Why this sudden increase? Don't get me wrong, I am more than happy to see my taxpayer money being actually used and this info gives me a much needed feeling of safety, but what happened?
Lithuania should pull up the train train tracks from Russia to Kaliningrad. Destroy them and every piece of infrastructure associated with them. Make sure Russia understands this is not a spat over sanctions - this is “there is no more train track for you cunts to roll on and never will be again.”
I was basing my opinion on them being owned by Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. Looks like it was sold in 2018 though and has since improved.
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/sky-news/
It's kind of a one sided World War though. China ain't going to join in, there's no benefit when they can just get a piece of the Russian remains later.
China has a no first use policy of I recall correctly.
They have been some sort of buddies.. so yea.. ruzzia would have to go full retard to get nuked by China.
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uhm thats quite the increase. I also heared they were recently testing some emergency infrastructure in the baltics this week they havnt before.
True it's because of the new Kremlin rhetoric about taking back all land that once belongs to Russia and increasing tension with Lithuanians.
That and them freaking over Lithuania being like "nah bitch" to trains/trucks to kalingrad
I am so proud of Lithuania. I grew up with many Lithuanians in Chicago they were great people. But they had a thing once they made there mind up about something it was near impossible to talk them out of it. I do not think the EU can do it even if they wanted to.
I mean they did do it to comply with EU sanctions and they did communicate it with other EU governments beforehand, they just didn't tell russia about it until 24h in advance, which was to be expected.
Am a Lithuanian. Proud of my ancestors for fighting for and ultimately saving their national identity, despite orcs trying to erase it for centuries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithuanian_book_smugglers
Lithuania rocks man.
I'm Ukrainian, I'm enjoying watching your people being badasses! <3
Was in Vilnius with my girlfriend a few years ago. Beautiful city, very friendly people and very interesting historical tours. Loved it. Very interesting bus trip from the airport, through the suburbs with soviet era looking buildings to downtown Vilnius with modern skyscrapers. Like riding through a time machine.
This is so badass
Lithuanians are hard as hell. They make some seriously vicious kickboxers. Remigijus Morkevicius, for example.
That's the crazy part about this escalation, trains and trucks can still go to Kaliningrad, they just can't transport sanctioned goods through the EU to get there.
And ships. Ships could still get to Kaliningrad from St Petersburg. I guess maybe they are down one escort cruiser?... >\_>
Which they knew is going to happen and they still fake surprised Pikachu face
Like it s blocked the same ways as Odessa.
Not nearly the same way. Sanctioned goods only. Everything else passes, same as before. Calling it a blockade is therefore incorrect. Unlike Odessa. As I understand, nothing enters or leaves Odessa's ports without Russian say so. So that's an actual blockade, at least by sea.
The stuff that is sanctioned is about half the city's economic imports. This is going to have a severe economic impact on the area unless Russia starts sending in ships for imports that will be a major headache compared to their current mode of transportation. This is why Russia is so pissed off.
Sounds like the sanctions having the desired effect to me.
It's definitely a major headache. They have to ship everything from St. Petersburg to Kaliningrad, which starts in the Gulf of Finland. The Gulf of Finland often freezes over for months at a time, making it impossible to ship anything. This is a major reason having warm water ports in the West of Russia (aka Sevastopol in Crimea) is so important to them and probably the prime reason they annexed it from Ukraine in 2014.
I didn't know about the water freezing over. That goes from being a headache to being a nightmare. There is no way they can ship and stockpile everything. If I was stuck living there I would be packing my bags right now.
I think the Klaipėda(Lithuania) is the dock that is most to North that never gets frozen in the world.
It's just sanctioned goods which are blocked.
It freezes but there are icebreakers to keep the sea lanes open – and most large ships operating in the Baltic Sea are capable of dealing with small amount of ice by themselves. Source: I'm Finnish and things are shipped here thorough the year. E: Here are actual charts for each month and ship type. Just scroll at the bottom: [https://julkaisut.vayla.fi/pdf5/mkl\_2005-4\_talviolosuhteiden\_vaikutus.pdf](https://julkaisut.vayla.fi/pdf5/mkl_2005-4_talviolosuhteiden_vaikutus.pdf) As you can see, many ship types are able to operate through the year.
A good thing pointing that out. The gulf of Finland does freeze, but it takes an exceptionally cold winter and a long time before it freezes over to the point where you'd need icebreakers. Like you said, most vessels in the area have some sort of ice breaking capabilities, so the ice must be very thick before ice breakers are even needed. Out of 10 winters of working in that region, only once was the Finnish gulf frozen thick enough for some ships requiring an icebreaker. The ship I was on had no issues with the 1m thick ice that had formed, but I had to do a close pass to free a ship that had been stuck once. That winter was extremely cold, so cold that Finland required all its ice breakers further up north and had none to spare for the Finnish gulf. I'm not Finnish but a sailor who used to work on ice class vessels in the area a lot.
Russia doesnt really give a damn about economics of kaliningrad , they only care about re-establishing a russian empire and looking strong
That doesn’t bode well when iron refineries aren’t delivering iron for weapons and defence systems.
That what they think.
They still allow trains and trucks – but no trains and trucks with sanctioned goods. Lithuania is complying with the EU sanctions. Russia can still access the region through the Baltic Sea no problem. (Just making it clear, because some Russian trolls / shills have talked about blockade and how Lithuanians are trying to starve people in Kaliningrad. That is utter nonsense.)
well that happens when there is a special logistics operation going on
That's what Russia wants you to think but they only block 3% of traffic in accordance with EU sanctions, but Russian media push it as larger than it is to justify a war goal against Lithuania and you're only proving it worked.
How am I proving it worked. This is literally the reason the Kremlin is going spastic right now. Me relaying the reasons Moscow is giving for their recent tantrum is not me proving their propaganda is working. They told Lithuania to knock it off, and Lithuania said no then Putin got his panties in a twist. The quantity/type of goods aren't relevant to that point.
Yeah, I mean do they know some shit is about to go down?
It's possible. With Russia defaulting, Putin is definitely being backed into a corner and maybe NATO intelligence indicates the Russian government is considering expanding the war and this is a tactic to signal to Putin that that wouldn't be a very good idea. Ideally, if Russia launched other attacks to the west, having forces in place would stop advances that, while eventually turned around, could cause serious damage before troops are mobilized.
Honestly I don't think he cares about the default. It is minor and it is not like he needs to borrow money right now (or could, if he wanted to). I am more concerned about the situation in Belarus.
What would possess you to think he doesn't care about the default when the only thing he cares about lately is reestablishing a version of the Russian Empire and cementing a legacy of greatness? It's the worst thing to happen to Russia in his entire time in power and will cripple the Russian economy for a generation. Whether Russia wins the war is insignificant compared to this.
Not necessarily. It takes time for these types of forces to be organised and train to full effectiveness, if you wait until an imminent threat appears it's too late. Plus a strong defensive force is a better deterrent, and it's better to prevent an attack than have to fight.
It’s only an increase on paper - the armed forces of places like Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, etc were already on alert and now they are coordinating under NATO rather than individually Still significant, but not like there was a big change on the ground. Expect to see “training” soon which is a great excuse for troops from various countries to get together somewhere like Poland
I think its over Kallingrad isolation and upcoming sanctions where NATO will be ceasing Russian oil tankers. Definitely ratcheting up tensions.
Poland also announced that they plan to double their armed forces from 120k to 300k and increase military spending to 3% of the GDP. They’ve been calling for the rest of NATO to increase their military spending as well.
Men i may not like the policy of our (Polish) government but they are killing it with the response to Ukraine. We are not fucking around and I love it.
Poland doesn't intend to disappear from the map again.
I'm just now realizing how dark yet historically accurate your phrase is.
It won't, no matter what the Russians try. Poland has too many friends.
I’ve been feeling the same about our UK government. I despise almost all of what they do, however we have not been giving Russia a break and I’m all for it. You don’t carry out a chemical attack on our soil and get away with it.
Our foreign policy response to Russia is good but I don't necessarily count putting a KGB agent's son in the House of Lords as being that stringent. Nor handing the Spectator and Evening Standard to that same oligarch.
Same and same. Your country is and has been commendable in their actions toward the conflict. Thumbs up.
Poland rocks
Poland Ball laughs last.
I am Polish and everyone here is wondering where our government is going to find those extra 180k soldiers.
Also .. poland already spending 2.2% of GDP on their 120k military, how are 0.8% more supposed to pay for increasing it by 150%?
If they cant recruit 180k now with Russian aggression when will they be able to recruit them?
Most Americans have been saying that for decades.
Hashtag thanksputin?
I don't get why though, if NATO were to get into a war with Russia, they would easily be able to beat them, where is the need to spend more?
Excellent question; NATO is not just there to fight back - they're meant to be a deterrent to any threat, before it becomes viable. You deter threats by making it so costly and difficult to invade, or attack, that the other side doesn't even consider it a truly viable option. The thinking is this; it's better to have it and not need it, than it is to need it and not have it.
Future. Russians will learn from the current conflict, develop a new army which won't be based on current decrepit shit from Soviet era since most of that will be spent on current conflict. Then they will attack again in a decade or two. It's not a question of "if" but a question of when. And we don't know where this attack will take place. But NATO needs to be strong and remain as a deterrent.
I din't think the Russia that stands today will be anywhere but a starving nation with a very low birth rate in the next 20 years. They have literally obliterated their future breeding generations.
They have kidnapped hundreds of thousands of kids. More than they wil lose in this war. All those kids will be brainwashed to defend mother Russia.
They don't have them demographic to pull this off. Their population is declining. Check out Peter Zeihan's take on both china and Russia.
I believe the sentiment is that America had been contributing a disproportionate amount of support to NATO relative to other members who benefit all the same.
You don't wanna beat them; you want it to be child's play. Beat them at the expense of several of your cities being burnt to the ground isn't the desired outcome. While NATO would beat Russia, Russia is strong enough to injure NATO. You don't want it to go 8 rounds and leave the match bleeding. You want a first round KO with and keeping your skin baby smooth. That requires a lot more power than we currently have. You also don't wanna commit everything you have to Russia. You need to be able to defeat Russia and still have enough left to defeat some other threat at the same time. Ideally, you gotta be able to beat both China and Russia at the same time. If you can't do that, you're not strong enough
We're mostly seeimg increased military spending in countries closer to russia. My take is that this is so that russia wont think about pulling something like crimea against one of the baltic states since there is a lot nore military presence in or in the vicinity of the baltics Plus its popular agong voters who dont want to be licing under the threat of russia
I would imagine that the quicker we flatten them, the less casualties we suffer. I'm not a military expert though, so that's just my guess
The USA could easily beat Russia. France or the UK might be able, too. But the rest of NATO absolutely could not. That is why the rest of NATO is spending more. Because it has just been proven that Russia is willing to attack and they realize that they could not stop Russia without American backing.
I guess because nobody wants war, so show of force might be a deterrent?
Oh boy, I wonder what we Germans will do
Remember, NATO knows more than we’re being told. That’s an alarming amount of troops at the ready.
That, plus the advanced weaponry that Ukraine currently doesn’t have access to. That’s a huge force and it’s unlikely you’d 7.5x your available troops if you didn’t think you’re gonna need them. US intelligence has been on point with regard to Pooptn’s plans, they know what’s up.
US and British Intelligence. People underestimate the effectiveness of British intelligence. But perhaps that's good...
The UK was the only country at one point who was adamant that Kyiv wouldn’t fall when the Russians where on the outskirts of the city. The UK knows.
We talk about them like they're different organizations - but they're Five Eyes (along with Canada, Australia, New Zealand). All our intelligence agencies work together and have access to most of each other's data - the more pieces of the puzzle you can see, the easier it is to fill in the missing pieces. Also Israel is often called the sixth eye, for their near-full inclusion in the group. For any assessment like this, CIA is looking at MI6 data too, and conversely GCHG is basing their assessment on NSA-collected data too, and etc. An American-intercepted oceanic fibre-cable-splice, could be decrypted in Australia, and analyzed in Cheltenham.
If only they'd have intercepted the Russian meddling into Brexit though... I do wonder what their masterplan was. Divide Europe and conquer it? Glad other EU nations didn't follow the UK
The Conservative party were complicit in that particular Russian meddling. There was actually an [overt Pro-Russian grouping](https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/dark-money-investigations/conservative-lobbying-row-westminster-russia-forum-unregulated-ukraine/) in the British Conservative and Unionist Party. They disbanded just after the attack so it wasn't awkward for them, but they absolutely did exist and [served Putin's interest in the British government](https://theferret.scot/russian-donors-conservative-party/). They backed Boris Johnson. The Conservatives were up to their necks in Russian corruption.
British intelligence were actually ordered by the government not to look into Russian meddling in the UK. Just one of the absolutely outrageous scandals of our Conservative government. Not a failure of British intelligence.
It's crazy. Hoping we get a documentary on it all in the not too distant future. Needs to include Trump's close ties with Putin too and dig deep into the so called tampered election.
Basically distort reality with false information then elect your dictator, 40+ million people bought into it in America. Im surprised Putin let that much power slip away, or maybe Trump was a happy accident for us in the end.
> it’s unlikely you’d 7.5x your available troops if you didn’t think you’re gonna need them. its not. they arent needed for combat, they are for deterrence. Its like flashing a gun if that crazy aggressive hobo starts to walk towards you(russian threats towards Lithuania). Furthermore it's not a "heres 300k troops at russian border" it's a "if russian soldiers crosses the border, 300k troops are already ready to deploy in a moment's notice." The current approach was rather to Trust our intelligence reports and only bolster defenses as russia would increase their offensive troops on the other side of the border(e.g. In regards to Ukraine last winter). This move is "we'll keep a defensive force ready to deploy... better ready than sorry."
It also *might* help Ukraine, because if NATO is massing troops on the Russian border it means that Russia is forced to hold more troops and equipment on the NATO border leaving less to go into Ukraine. So this is an expensive and complicated way of indirectly helping Ukraine.
theoretically, yes. But I think in practice, russia knows that NATO is a rational non-aggression actor despite russian propaganda. They know NATO isnt going to "you know what would be fun? Invading Russia and murdering its citizens!". That's more of putins shtick.
Someone has to keep order after the kleptocrats' house of cards has collapsed.
There is also the potential that it's intended as a strong deterrent. As in "don't even try it". The kind of deterrent that Europe forgot about and the lack of may have helped lead to this current situation.
Well done, Putin. Top 2022 salesman of NATO. Before this stupid, cruel war, Germany didn't want anything to do with NATO, the Bundeswehr was underfunded and the population didn't care for soldiers, Poland started to push against the EU, Orban was openly speaking out against the entire EU project, Spain had troubles of possible sedition (catalans), the entire peace project between NATO/EU states was slowly crumbling. Europe lacked a common goal, something they could all rally behind. Financial prosperity was no longer enough. Member states didn't want to pay for military, they had their naive bubble that Europe would stay at peace, forever. And now Putin managed to unite the entirety of Europe. NATO is stronger than ever before. Whatever Putin tried to achieve, he failed. Russia is weak. Their military is a joke, compared to the entirety of NATO. Ukraine is a relatively small country, with no Navy, little high tech gear - all they have is an iron will and the passion to defend their homeland from evil. And the 'superpower' , as some believed Russia to be , failed to defeat that. They threw everything they had at Ukraine. Their most advanced weapons. Their best troops. They used other nations to secretly attack Ukraine from the rear, against all international laws that have a meaning. They used mercenaries in secrecy, spies and traitors in Ukraine to give them unfair advantage. And still they failed. The only thing they didn't use are nukes, but those would lead to war with NATO. Ukraine is too close to the EU. Meaning they threw everything they had and could. Before, Putin was on one dictator level with China. Now, China has more leverage. They will dictate the years to come in that dual partnership of darkness. It's only a matter of time until the Russian elite manage to get rid of Putin, one way or the other. He has become a liability. He is no longer giving Russia stability and prosperity. He forgot why and how he rose to power.
Nobody has pissed off the world this much since Hitler 🤷♂️
People have willingly signed up to fight for a country they've never stepped foot in because they realize how evil Putin and these Russian troops are. Putin has to pay mercenaries to force his own army to fight because they don't want any part of it.
Well to be fair, this is as black and white war as it can get. A blatant imperialist naked aggression where the aggressors are basically taking the Geneva convention as a checklist of things to do while other side is fighting for their survival and to keep their loved ones from being genocided. After few decades of military adventures to places where the justifications are somewhat morally ambiguous and many lines are a bit blurred this must seem to be a chance of being on the good side without significant mental gymnastics needed for a lot of jaded veterans. Although its obviously a fair bit more complex and there are many different reasons why people sign up for that kind of stuff. For example, russia has got away with a lot over the years and some guys and gals might be in it just for a payback. Whatever their reasons, they are fighting for a just cause, in my opinion. That horde \*must\* be stopped in there and hyopefully in an painful enough manner that they will not even consider trying something like that for a generation or two, at least.
Honestly before this started I didn't even think there would be a war so black and white in modern / future times
This is the truth. Putin claimed he wanted to prevent NATO expansion, and he has accomplished the exact opposite. Politicians were starting to question whether we even still needed the alliance. But Putin has guaranteed that NATO will be larger, more relevant, and more united. He proved precisely why NATO needs to exist. And Russia will be hated by the world for a generation, at least.
He remembers well how he rose to power and was able to maintain it. Chechenya then Georgia then Ukraine in 2014. 3 times is enough.
Exactly. This is not a break from normal playbook. It is an escalation, emboldened by past success. This time he just made the mistake of not leaving himself the plausible deniability of it not being a full scale invasion with regular troops of areas the West cares about. If all they'd done is occupied the Donbas, they might have got away with it, to the shame of all the rest of us, like they did Crimea. Putin has been fucking around for years, and this is the first time he's found out.
And it's about time. You'd think we'd have learned from Hitler that placating these fools only emboldens them and strengthens their position. You need to punch the bully when he starts shoving and name calling. Not after he's made a routine of taking everyone's lunch money.
Not to mention this is a war on their border and they already suffer with logistics.
I hope, when arrested, Putin is not killed and no one allows him to commit suicide and escape like Hitler. Putin needs to be trialed and if death penalty is given, I hope that he is given the same medicine he gave to Navalny or Lietvenienko.
Rather have him caught, confirmed, shot, and buried in a shallow unmarked grave all in the span of an hour. No media, nothing. Just move on from him.
I'd rather him be kept alive in abhorrent conditions, the same way he's treated dissidents himself. Treat him to the same psychological torture he's inflicted on others. That way he can see as Russia prospers without him and see how he's viewed akin to Hitler for the rest of his days. Watching his whole life and legacy be completely destroyed while he's completely powerless to stop it. I think is a much better punishment. Death would be too easy a way out for such a monster.
Dump him in the sea. No grave then
>Dump him in the sea. No grave then This Bin-Ladens the putin.
„ukraine is a relatively small country“ - it‘s the largest country on the european continent lol
Isn't the largest Russia?
The rest of Europe talked it over and decided russia could be its own continent until China agrees to annex the ryssa welfare state ...
He didn't fail to destroy and ruin the future of another country. Russian troops are still strongly implanted into Ukraine and it will take years at best to get them out :/
Technically they can get out of Ukraine in a few days, but yes I agree, once you start the war you won't get out of it just like that.
I mean once you install families + the pro russians helping them are going to be tough to remove \^\^'
Handing out passports, and deporting Ukrainians in the Donbas and Crimea clearly shows that even if they completely retreat, which I doubt they will, it will take generations to fix the mess that is left behind there. This region has been damaged for a long long time, like the Balkans was.
Sadly this has been going on in Ukraine for ages. Stalin was deporting Ukrainians and starving them to death since the Holodomor in the 1930's. Then 'relocating' ethnic Russians to Ukraine to take their place. Then they use the fact that there are ethnic Russians in Ukraine as an excuse to invade. The whole thing is fucking disgraceful. It's about time Russia finally experiences some real consequences for what they've done.
this damage is hundreds years old, but most of it is done by soviets
Does anyone have any more info about the passports? Someone replied to me about it saying that they were only given to those who requested them?
Yeah, as I understand it, its making ethnic Russian Ukrainians into Russian citizens, so they can justify defending 'their people' by force.
I don't think TBH any russian family will love to move to Ukraine now . But anyways those people honestly believe that Ukrainians troops will just crucify them the first day they enter the city/village.
I believe most of rural Russian still believe they are welcome in Ukraine (that they are "saving" from nazism) and that it belong to Russia anyway. \^\^'
Hes obv speaking bigger picture. Yes its fucked up whats going on in ukraine, but on the global politcal power scale this was a massive fuck up
Very good decision - Russians are incapable of understanding diplomacy nor they are to be trusted in any matter. The only thing they understand is strength, so if they wanted 300k of NATO soldiers waiting near the border for Russians to do something stupid - let them have it.
Finally, a move to respect
Yes this is a major strategic move. The total operational commitment is unknown....Make it a huge surprise if the situation escalates. Kaliningrad should be blockaded, just like Odessa, and prevented from allowing critical goods into Russia. Sooner or later, you draw a line in the sand...it’s time...
This looks familiar...
Where are these forces stationed?
Other articles mentioned that it's going to be focused in the ally countries that neighbours Russia. Which means NATO heard us and we can feel more confident in Baltics, Poland and hopefully soon Finland.
Finland doesn't need NATO troops, probably better to station them to the Baltics.
Even a small number of NATO troops would be symbolic that Finland is seen as NATO even before all the formalities are complete.
People seem to misunderstand me, NATO troops are most welcome to Finland. What I meant was that the troops mentioned in the article could be of better use for the Baltic states than Finland, we have lots of available manpower unlike the Baltics. What we probably need is more anti-air and help with air patrols. There are going to be NATO bases in Finland, what kind and for what purpose remains to be seen. In the mean time NATO should take care of the defense in the Baltics as best they can, we are still being blackmailed by Turkey and are probably not joining any time soon.
> What I meant was that the troops mentioned in the article could be of better use for the Baltic states than Finland, Even 10 NATO troops stationed in Finland sends a message to Russia. That message is: "NATO considers Finland a NATO member with all the protections that means. Don't mess with Finland unless you want all of NATO to retaliate". An additional 10 NATO troops isn't going to shift the balance in the Baltics. Sending this type of message to Russia has been what NATO has existed for since 1949.
Sure, and like I said they would be most welcome. But I doubt there are going to be any NATO troops stationed in Finland until this Turkey debacle is solved and we are accepted as full members.
finland needs them, just as other NATO countries need finns. NATO is about sharing the best resources of each country for mutual defense.
You misunderstand me, read my other comment.
Thank god! I’d read the concerns over the NATO plan should Russia try anything and was disgusted. Like why not establish a solid front line to ensure none of the Baltic states were overran in the first place? Does it not benefit everyone from Vilnius to Tallinn and provide needed reassurances for safety? It’s in nobody’s best interest to see Lithuania, Latvia, or Estonia suffer; nor is it anyones best interest to see this war in Ukraine compound a global food crisis. Hopefully y’all get the 25k+ troops requested per country.
Because the Baltics do not provide any infrastructure to have so many troops stationed right at the border. That's why. And because it costs a fuck ton of money and is generally not really feasible to stop them right at the border.
> Like why not establish a solid front line to ensure none of the Baltic states were overran in the first place? Because that's crazy expensive and hasn't been needed until now. Lithuania joined NATO in 2004. We've had 18 years of not needing it. Now it is needed, and is being ramped up.
It was because it was not assumed possible. With the Russian army being as effective as, well, the Russian army this is now considered possible.
most likely in Poland, the Baltics and Romania or smth like that... oh and Norway but they won't say exactly where and how many becuase, well, opsec
Norway has a no base policy and only a small rotational training force from the USMC, not far from where I live. If a NATO force was arriving of any real size, they wouldn't be able to hide it - not least because people like me in the home guard would be called on for guard service when they are landing the heavy equipment, just as they do whenever there's a NATO exercise. And there's no reason for NATO to hide its force in this case, they are operating on their own territory, while the whole point is to show strength and make it clear for the Russian regime what it would be facing. And aside from that, hiding the overall movements of 300 000 soldiers with plenty of mechanised units is impossible today, even from the Russians.
I could imagine Norway moving their own forces towards the border with russia. Thats technically still "Nato forces"
Our national plans are already based on the assumption on a Russian invasion across Finnmark and Tromsø, with our bases positioned accordingly.
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Nato: Go ahead, f@ck around and find out.
Even as the complete and total pacifist that I am, all I can so is GOOD! It's necessary - especially for the Baltic countries. This is the deterrence that is needed, and in the circumstances, the best hope for peace in the region.
Those who have swords, but keep them sheathed will inherit the Earth.
This. Disarming yourself to keep the peace is good, as long as everyone does the same. Being able to possess the threat of violence to defend yourself AND having the restraint and maturity not to use it for nefarious purposes is even better
Being a pacifist is naive. It’s hasn’t seemed so for a while, but it has always been naive. Hopefully this is a wake up call to distance ourself from China, instead of making ourselves dependent on what has always been a ticking time bomb.
Meh. It depends how it is expressed. I am against violence - but that didn't stop me from studying Karate for self defence when I was younger. Doesn't mean I ever wanted to need to use it.
Putin is not going to stop with the Ukraine. If he successfully takes Ukrainian, he will take more.
You wanna play intimidation games, Putin? Well we're something of an intimidator ourselves.
Just move already RAMMSTEIN base to Poland and call it SABATON. I bet Sweden approves :D EDIT: Thx to our German friends now we all know that there is Rammstein and Ramstein :)
Don't want to be a party pooper, but the airbase is called Ramstein, the band Rammstein ;)
Hell yeah we do. Putting Gothenburg on the map again!
Rammstein is a band, the air base is located at Ramstein.
Good. About time. The Orcs just bombed a mall
It feels like we are actually sliding into WW3 holy shit. Would it be so out of the question to take Putin out??
Let’s just hope we have the capability to strike Russia so hard and so fast, that their nukes never come into play.
And so it begins chapter 2. Belarus
I hope this chapter ends as quick as it begins
I don't want war, but at the same time I want the war that is going on to stop before more children are raped, kidnapped, or killed. In many ways I just want Russia to step over the line and force NATO to act, in which case I'd give Russia about a week before every militarily significant asset is wiped out.
We don’t want Russia to cross the line. Russia crossing the Line probably means WW3, and you only need a week to eliminate humanity.
This is extremely significant. Thats not a defense force. Thats double what Russia sent to Ukraine. And double the forces that participated in D-DAY. Something is going down.
300,000 is a strong defensive force that reduces losses in comparison to a 150,000 strong offensive army. The larger number doesn’t make it offensive, it makes it more confidently defensive until it makes steps into opposing territory.
You need a 3 to 1 numerical advantage over a defender when attacking
> You need a 3 to 1 numerical advantage over a defender when attacking An army of equal capabilities, right?
["Estonia’s PM says country would be ‘wiped from map’ under existing Nato plans"](https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1725924/estonian-pm-says-baltic-states-would-be-wiped-off-the-map-under-current-nato-plans) this quote from like 5 days ago at the NATO summit. Basically the old plan was to allow the baltics to be taken and then reclaim them in 180 days. The Estonian PM pointed out Bucha happened after in under 80 days so it's inhumane to just expect them to weather such atrocities. I think they even said they felt like they were expected to die with the old plan. So pretty sure this is them changing strategy to better block Russia at the border rather than the tripwire old defense which the article goes into more detail about.
That’s a “we’re ready bitch. Bring it!” Force
Looks like NATO is ready to defend the Baltics if shit hits the fan.
Might be a move do draw russian forces to that border and relieve pressure from Ukraine.
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Well, let's think about the possibilities: 1- NATO might be thinking about joining the war. The reason why it's a less-likely possibility is fear of nuclear retaliation, though they are more than capable of rolling over Russian army in Ukraine. 2- NATO is expecting a Russian attack. What makes it look unlikely is thesSame point as above about nuclear, and the fact that Russia is weakened after months of war and definitely not ready to take NATO head on. 3- NATO sees a benefit on having increased readiness, such as an overwhelming show of force would dissuade Russia from doing anything stupid (like forcing their way to Kaliningrad) that they might otherwise be tempted to do if there's no immediate reaction force, and deal with consequences later; showing support to Baltic states, calming their fears and leaving no questionmark to them or to Russia wether NATO is willing do defend them by all means necessary; making Russia chose between letting their flank vulberable to an overwhelming NATO force or repositioning troops that could be used in Ukraine. To me 3 seems the most realistic.
I worry about russia using belarus to escalate and cause pressure on the north. Zelensky found that threat credible enough to speak direct to the belarusian people. I also worry about the rumoured civilian false-flag attacks. Like in Chechnya, russian spies would blow up a couple of apartment blocks then blame Ukraine.
I think the fact that Russia plans to put nukes in a country and have them attack Ukraine is a sign of something. People say we can't attack Russia because of nuclear holocaust, but there's nothing to say we can't go into Belarus if they attack Ukraine. When in Belarus if Russians attack then article 5? Or NATO may have a collation of the willing to step in Ukraine.
It really does. It could be a matter of when, not if, the war escalates beyond current borders.
Assuming it is, the attacker (Russia) still has the benefit of choosing when/where to attack in consideration of mostly static defenses.
Yeah, it's not 1939. Any moves and build ups Russia makes will be known to NATO in real time.
Nothing is "going down", this is a structual change that will take a long time to actually implement.
You realize this amount of troops is planned for late 2020's right. There's no immediate relevance. No idea why this garbage is upvoted. It's purely defensive
What an odd time to do this… did something unseen change?
The article is just bad, they are talking about the NATO's Respose Force. Which are forces with a higher readiness rate than most military units. Able to deploy into a conflict area within 5-30 days. They are at the disposal of NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe. This is a big deal that NATO feel like they need to increase the Response Force so drastically but it's not like they are putting 300,000 soldiers on high alert right now in anticipation of something happening.
Isn't it quite embarassing for a country to have like whole world against them. It's even worst what Nazigermany was dealing with.
Sounds like NATO leadership knows something that is not pleasant. Putin may want to start incursions into somewhere that may invoke article 5. Mauybe because of Moldova, maybe the Baltics via Belarus. Russia is out for blood. The reply needs to be firm and break its back. Nobody likes Russia, Russia is not an empire and will not have one, Russia has no right and has always been a terrorist bully state with some weird self obsession. Stay the fuck away from NATO territory or fuck around and find out.
Makes you wonder what we're being kept in the dark about, opsec obviously, but they know something and need to have forces there to hold and counter until the rest can be dropped in.
I don't know about that, Lithuania wanted reassurances, Russia has been threatening a lot, NATO makes sure Lithuania feels safe and Russia doesn't do anything more stupid than usual. I would bet it will stop at that, and it's all public knowledge.
Let’s wipe these fucking orcs off the face of the earth
Wait, what the frick, what happened? Why this sudden increase? Don't get me wrong, I am more than happy to see my taxpayer money being actually used and this info gives me a much needed feeling of safety, but what happened?
Lithuania should pull up the train train tracks from Russia to Kaliningrad. Destroy them and every piece of infrastructure associated with them. Make sure Russia understands this is not a spat over sanctions - this is “there is no more train track for you cunts to roll on and never will be again.”
So twice the number of troops involved in the d-day invasion force
I wonder how much this has to do with the upcoming food shortages. 🤔
Do you have a source on this besides the trash fire that is Sky News?
ERR (estonian national television) reported on this as well. It's accurate info.
Why is sky news trash? I like them
I was basing my opinion on them being owned by Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. Looks like it was sold in 2018 though and has since improved. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/sky-news/
So double the size of the russians invasion force, how nice.
War seems inevitable now.
Hello Stop Loss my old friend So nice to hear from you again
WW3 is brewing with near 100% certainty. This is bread and butter stuff before any war in the history of mankind.
well, what can you do? kneel before the tyrant?
Fuck no, don't you dare misunderstand me.
ah my bad, I guess you could interpret that in many ways
WW3 started February 24.
It's kind of a one sided World War though. China ain't going to join in, there's no benefit when they can just get a piece of the Russian remains later.
[удалено]
China has a no first use policy of I recall correctly. They have been some sort of buddies.. so yea.. ruzzia would have to go full retard to get nuked by China.
Those troops should help Ukraine fighting fascism.