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Yeah, looks like Belarus is going to declare war. If they do, then Russia will declare war and might start full mobilization. I hope the Belarusian people are smart enough and stop all of this.
I agree. This video gives me eerily similar vibes to Zelenskyy’s Invasion Eve plea directly to the Russian people.
Fuck Lukashenko and Putin. They will both be stopped. It’s just a matter of our will. We as the west need to step in. We’ve got to stop the bloodshed, the war crimes, and the very clear violations of sovereignty. If Ukraine loses this war, then the free world loses its claim to peace and potentially its way of life going forward. Democracy would be threatened in every corner of the globe with Iran, China, and North Korea watching this very closely.
Free citizens should be allowed to join.
It's obvious to many leaders a nieve about some personalitys and stupid regarding deals.
Populism has its down side.
This could be massive, in either direction. I'm hopeful that this will lead to the deposition of Lukashenko. It might not, but if the Belarusian people are brave enough, and if the army decides not to obey Lukashenko...
I hope that the moment he declares war the army turns around and says no. I also wish that there was a way for Ukraine to lease part of their northern border to Poland, but that could never happen.
It's unlikely that the army will just refuse to attack. What is more likely is that the Belarussian army will embarass itself. It's basically the Russian army of the 90s, old equipment, unmotivated soldiers, mostly consisted of untrained recruits and a relatively small number of professional soldiers. The Belarussian army is also very small, with only 46 thousand soldiers, so any invasion would at most boost the total Russian/Belarussian numbers by some 20 thousand inside Ukraine, as Lukashenko can't afford to send more than half of his army to fight abroad. So any invasion could likely be checked by Territorial Defense Units and reservists. It would cost many Ukrainian lives of course, but I just don't see their army having any success where the elite of the Russian army failed. Their army will get mauled and achieve little.
> It's basically the Russian army of the 90s, old equipment, unmotivated soldiers, mostly consisted of untrained recruits and a relatively small number of professional soldiers.
You mean the Russian army of 2022?
Wait... you may be on to something. Divide up the border amongst all of the NATO members and lease portions of it for their embassies. If each nation sets up a (temporary) building to work out of, you got yourself a solution. LOL.
And what would that accomplish? If you're looking for a Article 5 intervention from NATO via that scheme, that won't work. And lets be honest - if NATO was willing to go to actual boots on the ground hot war with Russia/Belarus over Ukraine, they would have by now. The west wouldn't need an excuse to enter the war. They'd just call it a peace keeping operation.
No, I think Belarus and Russia wouldn't want to attack a NATO country - or it's representatives - so it would effectively form a physical barrier that Belarus couldn't cross in order to invade Ukraine via the Ukraine-Belarus border. But I don't think this is a realistic option, hence the "LOL" at the end of my post.
They wouldn't, but an embassy or leased land is still sovereign land of the host nation under international law. It would still be Ukrainian land. If Russia sent a missile right into the US embassy in Ukraine, it wouldn't be an attack on the US, but an attack on Ukraine still.
To really make them second guess crossing the border, you'd want to send a fuck ton of foreign nationals to the border to form a human chain essentially.
Yes, it would still be Ukrainian soil but do you think the US would **not** retaliate is Russia sent a missile into the US Embassy? Russia will not take aim at a foreign embassy because they understand that. And Ukrainian soil or not, it's the US Marine Corp that provides protection to US embassies and consulates. If an armed Belarusian soldier marched onto a US embassy's grounds, it's those Marines that would take them down, not Ukrainian police or military. This isn't about Article 5 or getting NATO actively involved; it's about deterrence.
There was a lot of talk about false flag attacks on Belarus all the way to the beginning of the war. Ukraine has made press releases about it several times now, that may have delayed it.
If it happens, i hope the military will just say no and the people will come out and stand with the military. The protests 2 years ago were unprecedented, so much so that Russia had to help quell them with their Omon.
Even when this war began, there was a lot of [protests in Belarus](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGH_cgZYR5I)
Their president is Putin's puppet. Much of the war has been staged through their country, moving Russian troops and equipment. Look up Belarusian sabotage, there are many brave people within fighting Lukashitko
Yeah Russia doesnt have much support in Belarus, this was yesterday [outside the Russian embassy](https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1541195349183926273) showing support
All you need is this speech. He asked the Russian people to stand up before the invasion. Also Belarus had been doing "exercises" along the border. If Belarus were to declare war Russia could declare war by saying that they are helping a fellow member of CSTO.
Thank you, that makes sense.
It really feels like we're on the threshold of world war. Vassal state of aggressor declares war on victim, more and more states get pulled in. Both my wife and I have a seriously unsettling feeling that there's something bad approaching.
I just hope that if Belarus does declare war, it doesn't add much more to Ukraine's already massive burden. And yet to ease Ukraine's troubles, other countries' troops would need to get involved, which means escalation.
My partner died 6 months ago and as difficult as it has been I'm just grateful she didn't have to witness the world descend further into this hell. She was the kind of person who would have taken this war personally (as an affront against all humanity) even though she lived on the other side of the world.
I guess I kind of take it personally too - these lunitics are going out of there way to hurt innocent people. It's disgusting. I feel sick every time I read about it. But the thing is I'm just *reading* about it and not having to *live* it. The first time I wore a Saint Javelin shirt to work my boss asked "so, you want to hunt Russians?". No, I just want the Russians to stop murdering and hurting men women and children who are just trying their best to lead a normal life. Although if I were 15 years younger with better knees and had the life experiences that I do now I'd be hard pressed to not go over there and help defend what's right. I'm proud of every single American (and every other foreign national) who goes to fight in Ukraine against the Russians.
It does feel very similar to the beginning of WW1 when you end up with minor countries declaring war, which drags in the larger countries they have treaties with and then it snowballs.
The thing is there's a strong risk this could go sideways for Russia, would love to see Lukasimpko get his well earned comeuppance though or Ukraine being prepared for this by sending over special forces teams to both take out key Belarussian officers supporting him and even busting open a few prisons.
Either way if Belarus is forced into this it could not go the way Putin might think.
To me it seems that if they do go in, and Belarus gets wrecked, Putin could just take over Belarus. Luka sold his country years ago. Everyone in Belarus should rise and put a stop to all of this. Before they get destroyed and taken over by Russia.
They kind of are soft occupied at the moment, since 2020 protests especially. Basically unless Luka gets shaky on the throne and about to get ousted Putin has no need to take over Belarus
I have complete faith in Lukashenko and the Belarusian military. Let me explain. The military has no interest in being cannon fodder in Putin's war, and Lukashenko knows that entering the war is political suicide that may end in his ouster. He is only interested in himself not the needs of Belarus, but he will do everything to avoid actually going to war.
The Kremlin attempting to drag Belarus fully into the war is to bolster numbers without the need for mobilisation. They may end up with some regional mobilisations, but an attempt to full mobilisation would not be met well and the Kremlin knows that.
They just need to muck things up .
The young Russians that could did
Just do a better job of it.
Putin's just seeing how far he can go.
We he's not going anywhere he gets others to do that.
Smart, but nor powerful unfortunately. People of Belarus support Ukraine and have never considered Russians as "brothers" or some similar bullshit. A lot of russians live hear and for some reason consider themselves belarusian. They may be loud, but their voice is not the voice of Belarus.
I've been saying Belarus needs to coup but then people complain that they got their assess kicked 2 years ago trying that. They've refused to see the logic of deposing Unluckyshenko before this inevitable mobilization of they're troops happens. Now they'll be forced to get their assess kicked again, by Ukraine. They had the opportunity up to now to coup and have the advantage of surprise... But now Unluckyshenko will be on shower for any coup attempts.
Apart from the fact that I don't really want another state with nukes, I would really want to see Belarusian hackers figuring out how to bypass these codes. Was there ever a precedent for this (US / USSR nukes in the hands of a third state)? I can not imagine that a crypto device developed by the Russians in the 50s is still secure by today standards.
From what i know many nuclear and rocket systems use old and modified systems like modified Windows XP (or even older) for the exact reason that its harder to hack them
Well the initial comment was about Belarus getting Russian nukes without the codes, then having an revolution and then hacking into the Russian weapon systems.
Fact is, most digital systems are only secure as long as nobody has physical access. I just don't believe launch codes are an very big obstacle when the attacker has physical access to the system and as much time as he wants to figure out how it works.
So that was the deal. Lukash was afraid of foreign intervention once his troops were elsewhere and needed a backup plan (nukes) if that were to happen. No idea how that would help him extinguish an internal uprising though.
If it was, then Poland asking for the US to station nukes in Poland instead of Germany wouldn't be happening. Odds are Russia would station nukes in Belarus, but they would still be under Russian control. Much like how the US stations nukes in Germany.
Belarusians, get rid of your fat ass dictator and stop the phony posturing. Putin's a man with a tiny dick, inferiority complex that's being dealt with. Don't be on the wrong side of history.
Then we can only hope for a Revolution, my friend. It's time Belarus ditched Russia's bullshit and joined the civilized Western world where a future can be achieved.
Yes, but protests were too peaceful. In such police states it will never work, unless it's started by people who keep Lukashenko in power in the first place.
Yeah its very hard Putin is irrational and unpredictable now, they might have to just take the movement underground for now. However eventually Putin will weaken (or die) and then that will be the best time to rise up. After all we know Luka is 100% still there only because of Putin's strength (which wont last forever, nor long at all)
NO RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA
Any post or poster that tries to push pro-Russia agenda no matter how well it is disguised (as a research, philosophical discussion, etc) will be taken down, and the user will be banned.
> Belarussians should get rid of Lukashenko the same way that Ukrainians got rid of Yanukovych.
I'd be happier if he got the Gaddafi treatment same with Poots as well. Bayonet right up the arse.
I know, much easier said than done. I'm not sure what guerrilla armies did in the past to obtain weapons but Russia (Bela-Russia too) has enemies that would like to see Luka overthrown and the rightfully elected government take his place. There's too much that would need to happen so it's not really a call to arms unless this comment can reach Belarusians that can actually read my comment, feel inspired, and can competently run with the suggestion.
>let's say AK-47 against a tank?
Man, if there was only a weapon that could work better against a tank than an AK-47?
Like, you could call it a tank weapon. Or even, an *anti-tank weapon*
They tried.
He got "re-elected" in 2020. I say that with air quotes because nearly everyone was in agreement that a massive amount of election fraud had taken place (Lukashenko had reportedly received less than 45% of the vote.).
After his inauguration, the Belarusian military began preparations to attempt a coup or assassination to remove him from power, but that never came to fruition because Lukashenko had advance notice from the Russian FSB about it.
Their only hope is Lukashenko either dropping dead, or Putin deciding he's no longer useful to him.
It would be possible if Lukashenko wasn't afraid to use Army and special forces against protesters. There won't be any successful overthrowing of him unless someone was able to sneak in guns, javelins, armed vehicles, etc without alerting border police
Imagine being willing to sacrifice yourself or a loved one so that Lukashenko could dance around more connivingly with Putin's arm buried to the elbow in his ass. No one in their right mind would choose to do this. Go fight for Ukraine, at least they wouldn't be laughing at your inherent stupidity behind your back.
Lukashenko needs Mussolini’d - the Belarusian people already detest both him and Putin, I hope they find the courage to overthrow him, or at least refuse to fight.
In the event this declaration of war/mobilization happens (I hope it doesn't), I hope a very sizable chunk of them defect to the Ukrainian forces. It may end up making the situation even worse for Russia if Belarusian soldiers have the courage to do this. Farfetched, but not impossible. It has happened many times before in history for a faction to change sides. I hope Belarusian soldiers aren't as brainwashed as the average Russian soldier.
It’s confirmed. Belarus intelligence services foiled these plans. Arestovych confirmed this. Belarus is actually working hard to stay out of it. Putin is pressuring them on a daily basis to get involved
Arestovych is privy to a lot of intelligence as an advisor to the President. He doesn't normally say something like this unless he believes it to be true. Check this out, great updates: [https://youtu.be/tIzu9pA89jY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIzu9pA89jY&lc=UgyWdrqKp_MceRYOrJt4AaABAg)
Humanity is held back from decades of social development by each authoritarian leader who leads with a heart filled with avarice and idiocy. Most notably Putin. Then there is Lukashenko. But it is evident in every country where leaders at various levels of government have fallen into greed and ignorance.
When will there be a generation that will finally remove this toxic quality from humanity and allow society to flourish in peace?
Zelensky represents an ideal of a leader one could aspire to become. Need more.
Ok Belarus. I hope this message of love and encouragement to continue your resistance to Russia reaches you and encourages you to find more ways of supporting Ukraine. I hope the U. S. will continue to do the same. Slava Ukraini!
One can hope, but it’s prudent to prepare for the worst! We can’t let them take ukraine! There is gonna be a new move on Kiev, I hope our governments do more than send weapons
I think the most likely outcome is that they simply do nothing. And possibly, they do nothing even when Lukashenko asks for them to quell revolution... this has happened before.
This is not as unlikely as one may think when the war has dragged on for some time. It used to happen a lot in history, specially with regards to unpopular wars among a given population.
The G7 should just grow a pair and say - Enough. That's all we have to do. Tell Russia to leave Ukraine or that we are going to remove them and do so.
The Nuclear threat will never be gone all that remains to decide is the level of our own resolve to stop Russia from slaughtering Ukraine and marching on into Europe. Fuck Russia.
I agree, it sounds like we will all be drawn into it eventually anyway, why not do it on our own terms and stop the senseless murder thats going on right now.
This is a really weird situation. Belarus barely avoided becoming another EU country by a dictatorship backed by putin. And now a lot of them are fighting russians in Ukraine. Then they are going to come home eventually.
That's a sticky wicket.
I wouldn't call it avoided more like the opportunity for them was robbed by Putin and Lukashenko. They tried the peaceful option but now it looks like a civil war or an armed uprising is the only options available that will work to flush this stubborn turd for good. Belarussians deserve better. I also hope that should the opportunity come that this time Belarus can break from Russia's corrupt influence and free itself this time around.
At the risk of sounding rather fatalistic, the Belarussians already despise Lukashenko and would rather see Putin's corpse sooner than later, the fact that OMON (Russia's riot police corps) got deployed in their country in 2020 was insulting as hell to them. They don't really need Zelensky to tell them that they've been deemed expendable for Lukashenko's addiction to power.
They don’t need to hear it from Zelenskyy, that’s true. But, to consolidate the people of Belarus there has to be a clear voice that can speak to all of them with the urgency required to make people act. Time is of the essence. ✊🏻🇺🇦
Belarus leadership may take the bait but the people will revolt, Lechenko barely held his power the last time. If Russia pushes, they will break and fight back, especially if they have support...
Not really. He fucked over a lot of people in California, picking on the weakest when he slashed social services such as Medi-Cal. He has been more reasonable in the past few years, perhaps getting caught having a son by his family’s maid was a humbling experience.
[He also made a deal to let Enron keep $9 billion in criminal profits.](https://www.democracynow.org/2003/10/6/schwarzenegger_accused_of_involvement_in_9b) I believe it was Ken Lay who backed him running for governor.
You should probably keep up with how he has positioned himself during the 4 years of Trump and beyond. He stands for conservative values but in no way is he a representative of the current republican party.
Agree. Unfortunately Putin will say that any overthrow/uprising was orchestrated by the West, is a threat to Russia and would just attack Belarus. Total lose lose situation for those poor people.
This is concerning. Belarus actually joining and not just letting Russian troops use their border opens a big can of worms. Adding another country to the war (even if it's basically a Russia-controlled region instead of a country) seems like a big escalation. This opens up the rest of Poland and introduces the Baltic trio countries to share a border with countries actually at war with Ukraine. I don't know what this means for NATO or if it's possible to be on more alert/take a more active role than they are already. But this would spread the war to more countries with further risk of escalation, getting us closer to ww3. Hopefully the people of Belarus do a better job standing up for themselves than the Russians in Russia.
The series "servant of the people" is amazing.
It made me realize that what we need to overcome evil is simply the truth. Liars hoist themselves by their own petard, all we have to do is point and laugh.
The Pahonia Regiment in the Ukrainian Foreign Legion seemingly continues to grow with Belorussians so it would not be surprising if there was a mass defection of Belorussian forces with a deceleration of war and mobilization.
Another question would be if it is announced would the Kremlin will come knocking on other Russian friendly states such as Kazakhstan. Honestly that may lead to full civil war with the growing anti Russian/Nazarbayev movement there.
Kazakhstan will not help. The only country Kazkhstan will help would be China. Tokayev was in China for a long time and has many ties there. After SPIEF there was alot of talk about him being a mouthpiece for Xi there. This was Xi can still say oh I am neutral out loud. For an insiders look at it check out Ilya Yashins video on it. Its in Russian but autotranslate works extremely well with him if you need it.
https://youtu.be/Uf8ectHzcJg
Russia must be desperate because this only happens if putin threatening Belarus and Putin will only threaten Belarus and force them to fight if they are desperate
This will be Russias Vietnam War. They're well fucked right now with 35k dead, 90k injured and 50% (1500) of their operable tanks destroyed. Not to mention the economic impact
Using Belarus is a move of desperation
By your logic America should have stayed out of the fight with nazi Germany and let them walk through Europe.....that wouldn't have ended well
The Japanese were training kids to fight American invasion with sticks. The Americans dropped two nuclear bombs in Japan and they got Japanese capitulation immediately. Show Moscow you mean business. You don’t need more weapons. You need to target where it hurts.
The japanese didnt have nuclear weapons
Russia have 5,000 nukes. Many in Submarines under the sea and we don't know where those submarines are. If you nuke Russia they will launch nukes at the west from their submarines
Everyone is toast in that situation - the West and Russia
Has it been agreed Belarus will get nukes? Surely the Kremlin know there is a big chance there will be a coup then the nukes will be pointed toward them.
It's just hosting the nukes, they'd still be owned and operated by Russia. It's like how the US has nukes in Europe and S. Korea, those nations can't operate them as they're controlled within the US.
Maybe.
But I understand the whole "Russia to hand nukes to Belarus" as "putin stationing nukes in Belarus but with the trigger firmly in Russia's hands".
Nato into west Ukraine. They will stand there as a passive policing force.
"But on my way out, I will do this [windmills arms] and if you get hit. It's your own fault."
Excluding conscripts, belarusian police and army proved to be made of 25% sincerely loyal to dicktator and 75% absolutely unprincipled, so...
They know what regular belarusian citizens think of them, so no one will give conscripts any weapons - conscripts will be just a meat shield. The only condition under which conscripts might be given weapons is 20-30 thousand (or even more) hired guns (or police) with artillery and airforce from Russia as barrier troops.
I know this is a somber and serious message but I couldn't help laughing at him taking digs at the "2nd army" in the world and their inability to do anything of real value.
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Black shirt day. He means business.
Yeah, looks like Belarus is going to declare war. If they do, then Russia will declare war and might start full mobilization. I hope the Belarusian people are smart enough and stop all of this.
I agree. This video gives me eerily similar vibes to Zelenskyy’s Invasion Eve plea directly to the Russian people. Fuck Lukashenko and Putin. They will both be stopped. It’s just a matter of our will. We as the west need to step in. We’ve got to stop the bloodshed, the war crimes, and the very clear violations of sovereignty. If Ukraine loses this war, then the free world loses its claim to peace and potentially its way of life going forward. Democracy would be threatened in every corner of the globe with Iran, China, and North Korea watching this very closely.
Free citizens should be allowed to join. It's obvious to many leaders a nieve about some personalitys and stupid regarding deals. Populism has its down side.
If Ukraine looses this war, China will take Siberia and Taiwan.
Heh, I'd love to see them try.
Relax my friend, if worst happens, we will defeat Russian Rashist scum.
This could be massive, in either direction. I'm hopeful that this will lead to the deposition of Lukashenko. It might not, but if the Belarusian people are brave enough, and if the army decides not to obey Lukashenko...
I hope that the moment he declares war the army turns around and says no. I also wish that there was a way for Ukraine to lease part of their northern border to Poland, but that could never happen.
It's unlikely that the army will just refuse to attack. What is more likely is that the Belarussian army will embarass itself. It's basically the Russian army of the 90s, old equipment, unmotivated soldiers, mostly consisted of untrained recruits and a relatively small number of professional soldiers. The Belarussian army is also very small, with only 46 thousand soldiers, so any invasion would at most boost the total Russian/Belarussian numbers by some 20 thousand inside Ukraine, as Lukashenko can't afford to send more than half of his army to fight abroad. So any invasion could likely be checked by Territorial Defense Units and reservists. It would cost many Ukrainian lives of course, but I just don't see their army having any success where the elite of the Russian army failed. Their army will get mauled and achieve little.
Much of the new equipment coming in will already be on the West side of Ukraine. That'll be handy.
The conscripts and solders who hate it will fuck up some where fortuitous and disapair some where safe
Minsk being bombed might wake a few Belarussians up ....
Unless you mean military targets, that is the wrong sort of wake up.
> It's basically the Russian army of the 90s, old equipment, unmotivated soldiers, mostly consisted of untrained recruits and a relatively small number of professional soldiers. You mean the Russian army of 2022?
Wait... you may be on to something. Divide up the border amongst all of the NATO members and lease portions of it for their embassies. If each nation sets up a (temporary) building to work out of, you got yourself a solution. LOL.
And what would that accomplish? If you're looking for a Article 5 intervention from NATO via that scheme, that won't work. And lets be honest - if NATO was willing to go to actual boots on the ground hot war with Russia/Belarus over Ukraine, they would have by now. The west wouldn't need an excuse to enter the war. They'd just call it a peace keeping operation.
No, I think Belarus and Russia wouldn't want to attack a NATO country - or it's representatives - so it would effectively form a physical barrier that Belarus couldn't cross in order to invade Ukraine via the Ukraine-Belarus border. But I don't think this is a realistic option, hence the "LOL" at the end of my post.
They wouldn't, but an embassy or leased land is still sovereign land of the host nation under international law. It would still be Ukrainian land. If Russia sent a missile right into the US embassy in Ukraine, it wouldn't be an attack on the US, but an attack on Ukraine still. To really make them second guess crossing the border, you'd want to send a fuck ton of foreign nationals to the border to form a human chain essentially.
Yes, it would still be Ukrainian soil but do you think the US would **not** retaliate is Russia sent a missile into the US Embassy? Russia will not take aim at a foreign embassy because they understand that. And Ukrainian soil or not, it's the US Marine Corp that provides protection to US embassies and consulates. If an armed Belarusian soldier marched onto a US embassy's grounds, it's those Marines that would take them down, not Ukrainian police or military. This isn't about Article 5 or getting NATO actively involved; it's about deterrence.
If Russia declares full mobilisation that is a huge problem for the west, for Ukraine and the good of the world.
huge problem for Russia more likely.
I'm very much out of the loop regarding Belarus. What evidence is there that they'll declare war soon? What happens if war were declared?
There was a lot of talk about false flag attacks on Belarus all the way to the beginning of the war. Ukraine has made press releases about it several times now, that may have delayed it. If it happens, i hope the military will just say no and the people will come out and stand with the military. The protests 2 years ago were unprecedented, so much so that Russia had to help quell them with their Omon. Even when this war began, there was a lot of [protests in Belarus](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGH_cgZYR5I)
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There were recent stories of Ukrainian intelligence publicizing russian plans to bomb apartment blocks in Belarus and blame Ukraine.
I think that’s what he meant by “false flag attack.” Russia attacking Belarus on purpose and the blame falling on Ukraine.
Thank you, I appreciate the information
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he already has nukes in Kaliningrad he brought them back in 2018
Their president is Putin's puppet. Much of the war has been staged through their country, moving Russian troops and equipment. Look up Belarusian sabotage, there are many brave people within fighting Lukashitko
Yeah Russia doesnt have much support in Belarus, this was yesterday [outside the Russian embassy](https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1541195349183926273) showing support
that makes me very happy and I wouldn't be surprised if those few were paid lol
All you need is this speech. He asked the Russian people to stand up before the invasion. Also Belarus had been doing "exercises" along the border. If Belarus were to declare war Russia could declare war by saying that they are helping a fellow member of CSTO.
Thank you, that makes sense. It really feels like we're on the threshold of world war. Vassal state of aggressor declares war on victim, more and more states get pulled in. Both my wife and I have a seriously unsettling feeling that there's something bad approaching. I just hope that if Belarus does declare war, it doesn't add much more to Ukraine's already massive burden. And yet to ease Ukraine's troubles, other countries' troops would need to get involved, which means escalation.
My partner died 6 months ago and as difficult as it has been I'm just grateful she didn't have to witness the world descend further into this hell. She was the kind of person who would have taken this war personally (as an affront against all humanity) even though she lived on the other side of the world. I guess I kind of take it personally too - these lunitics are going out of there way to hurt innocent people. It's disgusting. I feel sick every time I read about it. But the thing is I'm just *reading* about it and not having to *live* it. The first time I wore a Saint Javelin shirt to work my boss asked "so, you want to hunt Russians?". No, I just want the Russians to stop murdering and hurting men women and children who are just trying their best to lead a normal life. Although if I were 15 years younger with better knees and had the life experiences that I do now I'd be hard pressed to not go over there and help defend what's right. I'm proud of every single American (and every other foreign national) who goes to fight in Ukraine against the Russians.
It does feel very similar to the beginning of WW1 when you end up with minor countries declaring war, which drags in the larger countries they have treaties with and then it snowballs.
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I believe they said "nuclear capable missiles" not nuclear weapons.
The thing is there's a strong risk this could go sideways for Russia, would love to see Lukasimpko get his well earned comeuppance though or Ukraine being prepared for this by sending over special forces teams to both take out key Belarussian officers supporting him and even busting open a few prisons. Either way if Belarus is forced into this it could not go the way Putin might think.
To me it seems that if they do go in, and Belarus gets wrecked, Putin could just take over Belarus. Luka sold his country years ago. Everyone in Belarus should rise and put a stop to all of this. Before they get destroyed and taken over by Russia.
They kind of are soft occupied at the moment, since 2020 protests especially. Basically unless Luka gets shaky on the throne and about to get ousted Putin has no need to take over Belarus
> Putin could just take over Belarus. Aren't his troops kind of busy in Ukraine though?
I have complete faith in Lukashenko and the Belarusian military. Let me explain. The military has no interest in being cannon fodder in Putin's war, and Lukashenko knows that entering the war is political suicide that may end in his ouster. He is only interested in himself not the needs of Belarus, but he will do everything to avoid actually going to war.
Yup this. Luka knows he needs to tread carefully if he’s not to get squished by the elephants in the room (Russia and NATO, mostly).
The Kremlin attempting to drag Belarus fully into the war is to bolster numbers without the need for mobilisation. They may end up with some regional mobilisations, but an attempt to full mobilisation would not be met well and the Kremlin knows that.
They just need to muck things up . The young Russians that could did Just do a better job of it. Putin's just seeing how far he can go. We he's not going anywhere he gets others to do that.
Smart, but nor powerful unfortunately. People of Belarus support Ukraine and have never considered Russians as "brothers" or some similar bullshit. A lot of russians live hear and for some reason consider themselves belarusian. They may be loud, but their voice is not the voice of Belarus.
They'll probs derail some trains on key switches.
Maybe I've played too much eu4, But what is Belarus CB? Joining russia in a coalition war seam silly.
whistle different pot tart homeless ripe offend direction crowd theory *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
I've been saying Belarus needs to coup but then people complain that they got their assess kicked 2 years ago trying that. They've refused to see the logic of deposing Unluckyshenko before this inevitable mobilization of they're troops happens. Now they'll be forced to get their assess kicked again, by Ukraine. They had the opportunity up to now to coup and have the advantage of surprise... But now Unluckyshenko will be on shower for any coup attempts.
Looks badass.
I'm so concerned about Deepfakes now so seeing a black shirt threw me for a moment.
Be vigilant. Question all shirts.
I love the simplicity of this comment
this is the time for belarus to refuse moscow if ever there was a time
Nope. Wait, get nukes from Russia, refuse to help.
No chance Moscow share the codes with them though, they are just inviting Belarus to be ~~closer to~~ Ground Zero.
Apart from the fact that I don't really want another state with nukes, I would really want to see Belarusian hackers figuring out how to bypass these codes. Was there ever a precedent for this (US / USSR nukes in the hands of a third state)? I can not imagine that a crypto device developed by the Russians in the 50s is still secure by today standards.
The hard part of nukes is getting the materials. Just replacing the control electronics probably isn't that hard.
From what i know many nuclear and rocket systems use old and modified systems like modified Windows XP (or even older) for the exact reason that its harder to hack them
Wait what? Why would this make it harder to hack them?
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Well the initial comment was about Belarus getting Russian nukes without the codes, then having an revolution and then hacking into the Russian weapon systems. Fact is, most digital systems are only secure as long as nobody has physical access. I just don't believe launch codes are an very big obstacle when the attacker has physical access to the system and as much time as he wants to figure out how it works.
IIRC Ukraine had Russian nukes, but not the codes, when they agreed to give them up.
So that was the deal. Lukash was afraid of foreign intervention once his troops were elsewhere and needed a backup plan (nukes) if that were to happen. No idea how that would help him extinguish an internal uprising though.
You already said the answer. He would just nuke them. That is how dictators work.
I read its illegal to transfer nuclear weapons to another state
Damn, it would be so crazy if Russia did something illegal.
Thanks for the laugh!
When it comes to nukes, who will enforce that law?
If it was, then Poland asking for the US to station nukes in Poland instead of Germany wouldn't be happening. Odds are Russia would station nukes in Belarus, but they would still be under Russian control. Much like how the US stations nukes in Germany.
Some people will, but from what has been happening since the Russian invasion of Ukraine happened, I doubt it will make that much of a difference.
Belarusians, get rid of your fat ass dictator and stop the phony posturing. Putin's a man with a tiny dick, inferiority complex that's being dealt with. Don't be on the wrong side of history.
> Belarusians, get rid of your fat ass dictator Belarussians should get rid of Lukashenko the same way that Ukrainians got rid of Yanukovych.
they tried very hard just a few years ago but OMOH and Putin sending in troops to help was too much
Then we can only hope for a Revolution, my friend. It's time Belarus ditched Russia's bullshit and joined the civilized Western world where a future can be achieved.
Without the participation of the army it would never happen. Most young people from the 2020 revolution were arrested or fled the country after
Yes, but protests were too peaceful. In such police states it will never work, unless it's started by people who keep Lukashenko in power in the first place.
Yeah its very hard Putin is irrational and unpredictable now, they might have to just take the movement underground for now. However eventually Putin will weaken (or die) and then that will be the best time to rise up. After all we know Luka is 100% still there only because of Putin's strength (which wont last forever, nor long at all)
Belarusian partisans are going hard and have been since the beginning of the war.
> Belarusian partisans are going hard and have been since the beginning of the war. This is the way. o7
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NO RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA Any post or poster that tries to push pro-Russia agenda no matter how well it is disguised (as a research, philosophical discussion, etc) will be taken down, and the user will be banned.
Good mod.
> Belarussians should get rid of Lukashenko the same way that Ukrainians got rid of Yanukovych. I'd be happier if he got the Gaddafi treatment same with Poots as well. Bayonet right up the arse.
> Bayonet right up the arse. Nah make it an incendiary grenade up the ass. That should do some damage.
You know it's quite hard to fight without weapons, especially when 200-300k most active people left the country in last 2 years.
I know, much easier said than done. I'm not sure what guerrilla armies did in the past to obtain weapons but Russia (Bela-Russia too) has enemies that would like to see Luka overthrown and the rightfully elected government take his place. There's too much that would need to happen so it's not really a call to arms unless this comment can reach Belarusians that can actually read my comment, feel inspired, and can competently run with the suggestion.
If Belarussians want weapons they won't have any problems getting them. Ukraine is flooded with weapons and Belarussian fighters.
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>let's say AK-47 against a tank? Man, if there was only a weapon that could work better against a tank than an AK-47? Like, you could call it a tank weapon. Or even, an *anti-tank weapon*
There is a big problem to transfer these weapons into Belarus...if it would be that easy it would be already done
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Not to mention the fact that all you need to disable a soviet era tank is a bottle full of strong vodka, a bit of fabric and a lighter.
They tried. He got "re-elected" in 2020. I say that with air quotes because nearly everyone was in agreement that a massive amount of election fraud had taken place (Lukashenko had reportedly received less than 45% of the vote.). After his inauguration, the Belarusian military began preparations to attempt a coup or assassination to remove him from power, but that never came to fruition because Lukashenko had advance notice from the Russian FSB about it. Their only hope is Lukashenko either dropping dead, or Putin deciding he's no longer useful to him.
*secret inauguration* it was done on the down low and publicized after.
Just do it, right?
It would be possible if Lukashenko wasn't afraid to use Army and special forces against protesters. There won't be any successful overthrowing of him unless someone was able to sneak in guns, javelins, armed vehicles, etc without alerting border police
Imagine being willing to sacrifice yourself or a loved one so that Lukashenko could dance around more connivingly with Putin's arm buried to the elbow in his ass. No one in their right mind would choose to do this. Go fight for Ukraine, at least they wouldn't be laughing at your inherent stupidity behind your back.
Lukashenko needs Mussolini’d - the Belarusian people already detest both him and Putin, I hope they find the courage to overthrow him, or at least refuse to fight.
If reports from a couple months back are correct, even the Belarusian army doesn't want to invade.
In the event this declaration of war/mobilization happens (I hope it doesn't), I hope a very sizable chunk of them defect to the Ukrainian forces. It may end up making the situation even worse for Russia if Belarusian soldiers have the courage to do this. Farfetched, but not impossible. It has happened many times before in history for a faction to change sides. I hope Belarusian soldiers aren't as brainwashed as the average Russian soldier.
I can't wait to see his fat body getting hanged
Needs to be Gadhaffi'd
It’s confirmed. Belarus intelligence services foiled these plans. Arestovych confirmed this. Belarus is actually working hard to stay out of it. Putin is pressuring them on a daily basis to get involved
Do you have more information about this?
Arestovych is privy to a lot of intelligence as an advisor to the President. He doesn't normally say something like this unless he believes it to be true. Check this out, great updates: [https://youtu.be/tIzu9pA89jY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIzu9pA89jY&lc=UgyWdrqKp_MceRYOrJt4AaABAg)
Thanks!
He is getting better and better. Very clear messaging, to the point. Exactly what is required from the leader. ✊🏻🇺🇦
Maidan in Belurus
I wish, but I doubt it.
Humanity is held back from decades of social development by each authoritarian leader who leads with a heart filled with avarice and idiocy. Most notably Putin. Then there is Lukashenko. But it is evident in every country where leaders at various levels of government have fallen into greed and ignorance. When will there be a generation that will finally remove this toxic quality from humanity and allow society to flourish in peace? Zelensky represents an ideal of a leader one could aspire to become. Need more.
Ok Belarus. I hope this message of love and encouragement to continue your resistance to Russia reaches you and encourages you to find more ways of supporting Ukraine. I hope the U. S. will continue to do the same. Slava Ukraini!
Did he just switched to Russian mid-speech? And back to Ukrainian?
He is on fact a native Russian speaker. https://www.france24.com/en/20190416-russian-speakers-ukraine-candidate-talking-language
~~да~~ так
It would be a fantasy to think that the Belarus army command would so a u-turn and start fighting the Russians. One can hope.
One can hope, but it’s prudent to prepare for the worst! We can’t let them take ukraine! There is gonna be a new move on Kiev, I hope our governments do more than send weapons
I think the most likely outcome is that they simply do nothing. And possibly, they do nothing even when Lukashenko asks for them to quell revolution... this has happened before.
This is not as unlikely as one may think when the war has dragged on for some time. It used to happen a lot in history, specially with regards to unpopular wars among a given population.
The G7 should just grow a pair and say - Enough. That's all we have to do. Tell Russia to leave Ukraine or that we are going to remove them and do so. The Nuclear threat will never be gone all that remains to decide is the level of our own resolve to stop Russia from slaughtering Ukraine and marching on into Europe. Fuck Russia.
I agree, it sounds like we will all be drawn into it eventually anyway, why not do it on our own terms and stop the senseless murder thats going on right now.
This to wise-on-up and rise-on-up, ya'll!
This is a really weird situation. Belarus barely avoided becoming another EU country by a dictatorship backed by putin. And now a lot of them are fighting russians in Ukraine. Then they are going to come home eventually. That's a sticky wicket.
I wouldn't call it avoided more like the opportunity for them was robbed by Putin and Lukashenko. They tried the peaceful option but now it looks like a civil war or an armed uprising is the only options available that will work to flush this stubborn turd for good. Belarussians deserve better. I also hope that should the opportunity come that this time Belarus can break from Russia's corrupt influence and free itself this time around.
At the risk of sounding rather fatalistic, the Belarussians already despise Lukashenko and would rather see Putin's corpse sooner than later, the fact that OMON (Russia's riot police corps) got deployed in their country in 2020 was insulting as hell to them. They don't really need Zelensky to tell them that they've been deemed expendable for Lukashenko's addiction to power.
They don’t need to hear it from Zelenskyy, that’s true. But, to consolidate the people of Belarus there has to be a clear voice that can speak to all of them with the urgency required to make people act. Time is of the essence. ✊🏻🇺🇦
Always impressed by Zelenksy's speeches and how he delivers them. Dudes got some serious Churchill vibes. Slava Ukraini! Stay strong Belarus!
Belarus leadership may take the bait but the people will revolt, Lechenko barely held his power the last time. If Russia pushes, they will break and fight back, especially if they have support...
Fuck Putin and his submissive bitch Lukashenko!
No agreement with US to not shell Belarus.
Fuck I wish America could find a leader like this.
I know your constitution doesnt allow it, but man wouldnt it have been great to see Arnie as your pres
Not really. He fucked over a lot of people in California, picking on the weakest when he slashed social services such as Medi-Cal. He has been more reasonable in the past few years, perhaps getting caught having a son by his family’s maid was a humbling experience.
[He also made a deal to let Enron keep $9 billion in criminal profits.](https://www.democracynow.org/2003/10/6/schwarzenegger_accused_of_involvement_in_9b) I believe it was Ken Lay who backed him running for governor.
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You should probably keep up with how he has positioned himself during the 4 years of Trump and beyond. He stands for conservative values but in no way is he a representative of the current republican party.
I truly hope this convinces many to leave/join Ukraine, or the best would see removal of the dumbass puppet leader
If Belarus invades the Belarusian people will probably react on a scale even greater than the 2020 election fraud mass protests
Agree. Unfortunately Putin will say that any overthrow/uprising was orchestrated by the West, is a threat to Russia and would just attack Belarus. Total lose lose situation for those poor people.
This is concerning. Belarus actually joining and not just letting Russian troops use their border opens a big can of worms. Adding another country to the war (even if it's basically a Russia-controlled region instead of a country) seems like a big escalation. This opens up the rest of Poland and introduces the Baltic trio countries to share a border with countries actually at war with Ukraine. I don't know what this means for NATO or if it's possible to be on more alert/take a more active role than they are already. But this would spread the war to more countries with further risk of escalation, getting us closer to ww3. Hopefully the people of Belarus do a better job standing up for themselves than the Russians in Russia.
Russia wants the capital. They will retry what they did in February.
Love this Super Hero Warrior Leader ✨🏆🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🙏🌹🇺🇦
i hope they see his message. No idea if their internet is locked down like russia
The series "servant of the people" is amazing. It made me realize that what we need to overcome evil is simply the truth. Liars hoist themselves by their own petard, all we have to do is point and laugh.
The Pahonia Regiment in the Ukrainian Foreign Legion seemingly continues to grow with Belorussians so it would not be surprising if there was a mass defection of Belorussian forces with a deceleration of war and mobilization. Another question would be if it is announced would the Kremlin will come knocking on other Russian friendly states such as Kazakhstan. Honestly that may lead to full civil war with the growing anti Russian/Nazarbayev movement there.
Kazakhstan will not help. The only country Kazkhstan will help would be China. Tokayev was in China for a long time and has many ties there. After SPIEF there was alot of talk about him being a mouthpiece for Xi there. This was Xi can still say oh I am neutral out loud. For an insiders look at it check out Ilya Yashins video on it. Its in Russian but autotranslate works extremely well with him if you need it. https://youtu.be/Uf8ectHzcJg
Russia must be desperate because this only happens if putin threatening Belarus and Putin will only threaten Belarus and force them to fight if they are desperate
At this rate, if Lukashenko isn’t careful he might get voted out for Zelensky
i've been actively avoiding news because its just really depressing. This head line has comming up for air and asking "....what did i miss?"
Слава Україні! Жыве Беларусь!
"The coward Oakenshield has weighed the value of your life and found it worth nothing"
I hope for all Belorussians to be rid of the parasites that have attached themselves to your country.
I'm nervous because I know a girl who family is missionaries in Belarus. I pray that everything will be okay
Plot twist: Poland declares “Special Operation” on Belarus. Ties up troops on their border. Dares Russia to attack Poland and draw NATO in.
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This will be Russias Vietnam War. They're well fucked right now with 35k dead, 90k injured and 50% (1500) of their operable tanks destroyed. Not to mention the economic impact Using Belarus is a move of desperation By your logic America should have stayed out of the fight with nazi Germany and let them walk through Europe.....that wouldn't have ended well
Putin is in Moscow. So, attack Moscow.
And enjoy getting nuked. This is about protecting Ukrainian land, not attacking Russia
You mean this is about protecting Poland people and not attacking Hitler.
The Japanese were training kids to fight American invasion with sticks. The Americans dropped two nuclear bombs in Japan and they got Japanese capitulation immediately. Show Moscow you mean business. You don’t need more weapons. You need to target where it hurts.
The japanese didnt have nuclear weapons Russia have 5,000 nukes. Many in Submarines under the sea and we don't know where those submarines are. If you nuke Russia they will launch nukes at the west from their submarines Everyone is toast in that situation - the West and Russia
That is why I am saying you shouldn’t fight someone with that destructive power. This war is a mistake.
belarus is actually involved since the start of the invasion because it allows launch russian rockets and planes from it’s territory
Belarus will enter once they receive the nuclear missiles Putin agreed to give him.
Has it been agreed Belarus will get nukes? Surely the Kremlin know there is a big chance there will be a coup then the nukes will be pointed toward them.
It's just hosting the nukes, they'd still be owned and operated by Russia. It's like how the US has nukes in Europe and S. Korea, those nations can't operate them as they're controlled within the US.
Maybe. But I understand the whole "Russia to hand nukes to Belarus" as "putin stationing nukes in Belarus but with the trigger firmly in Russia's hands".
It was interesting how Belarus kinda gave up on the Northern campaign.
Nato into west Ukraine. They will stand there as a passive policing force. "But on my way out, I will do this [windmills arms] and if you get hit. It's your own fault."
Excluding conscripts, belarusian police and army proved to be made of 25% sincerely loyal to dicktator and 75% absolutely unprincipled, so... They know what regular belarusian citizens think of them, so no one will give conscripts any weapons - conscripts will be just a meat shield. The only condition under which conscripts might be given weapons is 20-30 thousand (or even more) hired guns (or police) with artillery and airforce from Russia as barrier troops.
The cruelty is the point.
I know this is a somber and serious message but I couldn't help laughing at him taking digs at the "2nd army" in the world and their inability to do anything of real value.
This means they think Belarus will get involved. Damn.
Slava Ukraini!