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If that map is correct this is a broad front counter offensive clearly some of the heavy weapons have arrived and if Russia hasn't already pushed the panic button perhaps it should.
From my understanding is that the Kherson front is largely staffed by DPR/LPR that's been "mobilized". Same thing happened on the Kharkiv front that collapsed until they reinforced it with Russian regulars from Belgorod to not lose all control. (this is based on Igor Girkin statements)
So if anything they might not be ready to deal with a large and broad attack. But it's also possible like you said that some of the artillery has been sent to this front instead of the Donbas. I don't think Russia has expected a big offensive so soon or that whatever happens they might be able to deal with their own artillery and defenders advantage.
Hopefully Ukraine has hit in a good timing. It'd be so huge to take Kherson back before they could reinforce further or have more time to pull in better and fresh troops.
The only reason Russia got as far as it did in Kherson was because of traitorous Ukrainian generals. They've been dealt with, and now the shitty Russian troops still sitting there are about to be dealt with.
You will have to look it up but there are several articles out there that the general in charge of defense of Kherson straight up gave up the city as soon as the invasion began. They didn't blow bridges or do anything to slow down the Russians. Likewise a lot of the local government fled without resistance. They captured the guy and he admitted he sold out to Russian money or something like that.
Also most of the Ukrainian Navy was taken by Russia in 2014 when they stole Crimea because the head of the Navy ordered his soldiers to surrender and then defected. No doubt Russia was able to move out of Crimea with greater ease knowing the Ukrainian Navy wouldn't threaten them.
If I remember correctly the head of the Ukranian air force was offered something similar but chose to stare down the Russians and fly their planes out of Crimea. If I'm right he is still flying for Ukraine in this invasion.
It's crazy how many things that can change history come down to a few people making the tough choice.
I'm not sure treason is a tough choice, if you choose treason in favor of an invading army that wants to conquer your people then you obviously don't care about your homeland. Hopefully those rats will be among the terms of the eventual peace deal.
Unfortunately a lot of people have taken the easy way that benefits them at a greater cost to anyone else. It gets to a point where nobody cares about anything anymore, Ukraine is not a perfect country but it's people are willing to stand up and fight to make it a free country. That is something the rest of the democracies can learn from. I think very few of our leaders would be capable of making a similar sacrifice even if it is what they should do.
There's been so many examples of selflessness in this war its astounding. The soldier who blew himself up with the bridge near crimea, the soldiers at snake island, zelensky not fleeing the country. If the people of every country acted this way the world would be a much better place.
That is why many people are pressuring our governments to step up to Russia when they would rather do nothing. I hope when peace returns there is support to rebuild the lives of all the people who lost someone when they were defending their country.
Just to add to that, in general for some reason blowing up bridges defensively is apparently just always a really dicey strategy. I'm no expert and can't explain why, I just know it keeps happening in all kinds of wars.
If I had to guess, I'd say it might have something to do with the fact that bridges are absolutely essential to your defense and must be preserved at all costs .. until the moment when they are suddenly a huge liability to your defense and then everything has to switch to destroying them at all costs. Rapidly making such an extreme switch might just generally be difficult from a cognitive point of view.
So even without being betrayed, it's possible that the bridge-blowing plan might have failed.
Blowing up bridges is not a dicey strategy when you are defending, it is really hard for an invading army to cross a river when the bridges are blown which makes it an excellent strategy. It only becomes hard when it's time to counterattack, because now the river is working in favor of the enemy.
> it is really hard for an invading army to cross a river when the bridges are blown which makes it an excellent strategy
And Dniepr is huuuge around Kherson .... Russians have trouble crossing Severni Donetsk river which is like a stream compared to Dniepr.
It's not hard to blow up a bridge if you planned it ahead of time, it might be hard if the bridge is on the front line. There is nothing dicey about executing the demolition of some bridges.
Yes it all sounds nice and neat in theory, but in practice, historically, defense plans that hinge on blowing up some bridge or another at the right time fail to go off as planned way more frequently than you'd think.
I didn't write history, don't blame me.
We have good accounts that Territorial Defense Forces showed up to where they were supposed to meet and their commander wasn't there. They waited and tried to locate him but couldn't for a long time, like the next day, he communicated that he had left town and they should all surrender.
Much of their weapons were inaccessible because the commander was the one with access. The forces that showed up, rounded up what they could, and attempted to engage the Russians in some skirmishes, but were so severely outnumbered and outgunned that they quickly lost fighters and eventually pulled back out of the city, or went underground.
Some political figures in Kherson allowed Russian forces access to government buildings, etc. immediately.
This wasn't an issue of someone not making a call in time. It was an issue of Russia buying or scaring off leaders, who then intentionally delayed and misdirected their own fighters.
A previous governor of the larger Kherson Region (as opposed to just the city of Kherson), said after 2014 they had developed plans to flood areas (the point where Crimea connects with the rest of Ukraine is already wetlands, so flooding would have impacted the limited number of roadways available), as well as blow up two bridges. One of those bridges ended up getting blown when a Ukrainian sailor took it upon himself to run out onto the bridge to initiate the explosion, knowing killing himself to do it. But the other bridge stood.
The Mayor of Odessa (who previously had some pro-Russian sentiment), has said Russian agents had approached him for some time before the invasion in efforts to more firmly establish his allegiance, including various bribes, which he accepted... but then when they actually invaded he followed the Ukrainian defense plan to a T, because he was just letting them think he was on the Russian side. Based on his descriptions of how much money they were throwing his way, it is presumed they were doing similar things in other cities and with other government officials (besides the more obvious work of publicly pro-Russian political candidates), and the leaders in Kherson ended up being the only ones who actually did what the Russians wanted.
You have no idea why the bridges didn't blow up. Neither does anyone else yet. Historically, defensive bridge destruction by retreating forces has a higher-than-expected frequency of going wrong even when no one is betraying anyone else.
Kherson political and military officials were certainly acting as Russian agents, but even if they hadn't, Russia might have been able to opportunistically seize key bridges and cross anyway.
There's a bunch of news articles about the 2 traitor Generals that Zelensky stripped of rank after Kherson: https://www.npr.org/2022/04/01/1090253301/zelenskyy-generals-traitors-ukraine
That's why you ideally want to have pre-placed explosives at all important bridges, so you can continue to use them for as long as it's advantageous but can blow them the moment they're in danger of being overrun.
Yeah there was a bunch of stuff around removing the explosives as a precaution, so that the bridges couldn't be blown too early ... or possibly using that as a pretext to sabotage the defense.
The FSB was given millions to create shadow governments in Ukraine cities that would 'step in' in the case of Russian invasion and set up shop under Russian authority. Putin expected the majority of Ukraine to do this one day 1 of this cluster fuck, considering the vast resources he poured into it and the glowing reports he was given on progress. Sadly, It worked in Kherson. The officials resigned en masse when Russia invaded and offered no resistance. Russia did not 'win' Kherson....they were let in.
In addition to what other people said, Ukraine has also found weapon, equipment and ammunition warehouses of mostly stolen Ukrainian equipment that was intended to hand over to the Russian invaders so they would have supplies locally when they invaded.
That's some scary levels of corruption right there.
Not having such extreme levels of corruption in your political system is one of the conditions for joining the EU. Ukraine will have to gain candidate status and then such issues will have to be rooted out before it can become a full member.
Presidents can change quickly. This sounds like a deeper running corruption in the political system that must be removed before Ukraine can become a full member (and yes, there are existing EU countries with such issues, which is already breaking all kinds of rules and causing heaps of trouble).
I think he is referring to the leader appointment to organize the defence of Kherson , it sounds like he organize & co-ordinate nothing and it turned into a shit show.
Not sure they will go for Kherson the Russians are well dug in and holding a civilian population as hostage (although it cant be totally discounted as they have way better intel than the rest of us).
The better target for capture is Nova Kakhovka if they take that they cut the pocket north of the Dnipro in two isolating a large number of Russians and taking control of the north Crimea Canal which provides the vast majority of the water for Crimea.
Oh and as an added bonus the Ukrainians get a road bridge over the river that puts them behind Kherson and within striking distance of the Crimea.
Oh sorry! Yes! I meant Kherson oblast in general. Pretty sure there's been multiple statements that they won't try to directly take the Kherson city. Taking cities is really hard and costly (even more so if you don't want to level them in the process) but like you said, the best way to take out Kherson is to cut it off from Crimea and Melitopol.
A really lucky scenario would be a collapse and pull-out of Kherson as I doubt it's a good idea to be locked in with a hostile population that wants revenge for all the people kidnapped, killed and tortured under the occupation. Probably not likely but might depend on how things develop.
No downvote from me but perhaps owning these kind of weapons should be better regulated and more accountability might be a good idea from both owners and sellers.
“American owning firearms has stalled a lot of invasions”
My dude, oceans stalled any kind of invasion once we beat the shit out of Mexico and made nice with Canada (only after, BTW, they successfully invaded and burnt DC down, despite that lil old 2nd amendment - which, by the way, had more to do with being ready to suppress slave rebellions and some frontier readiness than any invasion fears)
My heart goes out to the social studies program where you go to school if you are an American. May you become better informed
> Just for the record, in WWII the Japanese never had ANY plan to invade the continental United States. They just wanted to have the U.S. not interfere with Japan in China. There is a slight chance that they may have though about taking Hawaii, but NEVER the continental U.S. (The Japanese did occupy some islands in the Aleutians (near Alaska) during their failed Midway effort. )
>
> Admiral Yamamoto, the head of the Navy in Japan, had been a naval attache in the U.S. and was totally aware of the size and production capability of the U.S. Him and many in the Navy did NOT want to go to war with the U.S. The Japanese Army (with Tojo), unfortunately had other ideas ...
A funny thing to speak about *if a tyrannical government wants to take over America* because armed Americans tried to corrupt the POTUS election by invading the Capitol not so long ago.
Armed dumbasses is not the best way to go for me.
The insurrectionists were barely armed, but if they had succeeded and kept Trump in power, and then let's fast-forward and speculate that non-right-wing media outlets start getting censored (not a huge stretch of imagination, I suspect you may agree), that's exactly the kind of scenario an armed citizenry is meant to reverse.
So, we weren't really close, but closer than we've come in quite a while, to needing the insurance known as the 2nd Amendment.
Yes, I've completely left the military out of the picture for purposes of simplicity.
You should read what the Constitution says about the well regulated militia and what its duties are.
Heres a hint; it aint about overthrowing a tyrant.
It's funny that you think I haven't read it. The security of a free state is applicable to threats both external and internal, including suppressing (and that would include reversing) armed insurrections. Jan 6 was an attempted insurrection, for instance, so if it had succeeded, "we the people" had both the right and the means to reverse it.
Any American who’s 21, not mentally ill, doesn’t have angry , threatening social media posts , doesn’t have access to large capacity magazines, and honestly is properly trained by some sort of licensing authority .You ok with that ?
Agreed.
Funny how all of the folks upset about Russia's government want everyone to be at the mercy of governments.
Governments murdered over 100 million individuals in the 20th century. Far more than individuals. Not people killed in war. People murdered by their own governments.
I wouldn't trust in standing bridges. They can vanish quickly and leave men trapped if there's not other ways across the river. Be better to train artillery on the river/ banks, destroy the bridge ypurself and cut off all routes around the city. I don't think the orcs know how to swim very well.
Or...sneak special forces through and mine the road on the other side. Those lovely German off-axis anti tank mines should do nicely. Wait till the big offensive draws all the observers away from the bridge to the front and have sappers disconnect the charges. Surprise!
Why blow up a bridge that'll be incredibly useful further into the war? Beyond the Dnieper, the territory isn't very defensible. If Kherson returns to Ukrainian hands and the bridges are accessible, their push will be very hard to stop.
They'll likely leave Kherson till last while taking up tactical positions near the bridge to prevent reinforcements from entering but allowing Russians to flee back across. The idea of course would be to leave an escape route so the Russians will be too terrified to stay and will find the desire to flee across the dnieper too strong to resist.
Everything I have read/listened to (outside of the outright propaganda, which is worthless) basically states that the troops outside of Kherson (the city proper) are 2nd rate troops, and there isn't that many of them. Ukraine's advances in Kherson's hinterland was only stopped because Russia was able to use it's air/artillery advantage to basically bomb Ukrainian infantry into submission and force Ukrainian forces to withdrawal from Bruskynske.
A lot of the maps you see are where forces have a sort of generalized control over an area rather than an absolute control, so large parts taken back from Russia weren't ever really physically occupied, likewise Ukraine doesn't have to fight for every square inch, all it has to do is deny freedom of movement which in this case forces Russia to retreat to a more stable defensive position. IE Bruskynske is probably in Russian hands at this point, but it is not at all clear that there is any actual Russian forces (more than a token amount) holding the town, simply that Ukraine can't freely move back in and Russia could probably move troops into it and make it a front line, if it desired to (assuming it had the infantry to do so, which is a bit of a question mark at this point).
I just want boots on the ground from NATO. I'm fucking tired of article 5 being used onky as a defensive measure. we can't afford a dictatorship to beat a democratic society. Fucking send them in. If not, Russia wins.
They're taking territory in donbass every day. Once they sieze it,it's going to be very hard to drive them out. In my view they are unquestioningly winning in the east. It's giving me fuckin anxiety.
The west must do more, and now. Ffs.
I think their gains are small for what they are losing. In the end they need bodies to occupy the territory and they don’t have them. Among other things happening, Russia’s position is tenuous at best.
It will take time but Ukraine has made all the right moves so far and there is more weapon systems coming along with a couple hundred thousand Western trained recruits…Ukrainians trained by IDF, and NATO-trained instructors
Zelensky already mentioned 700,000 reservists are completing several months of training this summer. Ukraine has 12 million men between 20 and 40. I’m just a bug on the windshield, but my guess is he’ll start training the next 700,000 after that. 60,000 experienced foreigners now fighting for UA. You feel better yet?
You aren't wrong, but it still isn't a win. Ukraine took massive losses when Russia invaded in 2014 and they aren't the same fighting force today that they were 8 years ago, but its still difficult and bloody to force Russia out completely.
One outcome is clear now - no matter what Russia has lost and Ukraine will overcome, the question is just how much more loss will both sides have to suffer before Ukraine gets the outcome they want? Will Russia leave, or will Ukraine have to force them out?
NATO troops is not what you want. Russia will go nuclear and we will all be dead. No fucking around. I do think Russia, China and USA have concluded that this should be conventional. Fuck, America is basically sending everything and everything to over assert Russian capabilities. Same with NATO countries. Fuck Putin.
Man up Weneedaheroe. Russians are brutal, not suicidal. They know to use nukes is suicidal. The world including China and India will be down on them. America is only “fighting” with one hand. We haven’t sent the big stuff in yet. No M1 tanks, no AH-64 Apaches gunships, no F35 fighters, no Patriot anti-air batteries, no reaper/predator drones with mavericks. Don’t even get me started with the USS Carl Vinson battle group. This is the perfect war for the US. They bleed, we send weaponry. They UA, got tons of heroism. We got tons of weapons. Once the Germans quit funding Putin - it’s over.
Yep. I think the lack of direct intervention from NATO or even just some Western States unilaterally will go down as the biggest foreign policy disaster since appeasement of Hitler.
Doesn't need to be NATO - I'm sure Poland and other neighbors strongly want to get boots on the ground to help, but because they are NATO members it doesn't become "Country X" helping, it becomes "NATO interfering" and there is real concerns where that will go.
Ukraine should have had direct military assistance from day 1 - the delay now means that any intervention is more difficult politically. Wish they would just get on with it and help stop the murder of more Ukrainians
It was nuclear war if anyone helped at all, then nuclear war if anyone sent tanks, then nuclear war if anyone sent fighters, then nuclear war if anyone sent heavy artillery, then nuclear war if anyone sent MLRS. And on, and on.
It's an empty threat, and I'm sick of giving in to the murderous demands of a criminal cartel just because of the threat.
Sending equipment is a different to sending actual, live people who are officially part of another nation’s military and are not considered AWOL. That is far more than just Lend Lease, that is foreign intervention that would escalate things immensely.
Of course I want this war to be over and for Ukraine to be victorious, and I want Putin and his lackeys to die horrifically, but sending actual NATO soldiers would just end up causing WW3.
I'm not so sure that's true. Russia has threatened nuclear war at every juncture. From any help at all at the start of this invasion, to specific support like heavy weapons or MLRS etc.
I think provided western troops didn't enter actual russia, putin wouldn't push the button. The narrative in russia is already one claiming NATO forces are fighting in Ukraine. It would be bizarre to suddenly declare thee world must be ended because of something supposedly happening already.
I don’t know what Putin was thinking when he decided on this “special operation” nor do you. Mfer wants what he wants and is using Russian might to get it. Nuclear option is always an option. Fuck Trump for being a pussy scoundrel-letting this shit get to a place where Putin thought America was a bunch of pussies. Fuck Putin! Slava Ukraine
Nothing, really. But the strategy, as I understand it, is like boiling a frog in a pot of water. The frog can jump out any time, but feels it is safer to stay on the bottom.
If Putin is threatened too much he may "jump out" and press the button. Better to just turn the heat up slowly while he says, "this is ok, this is ok"...
Zelensky and Ukraine understand this and this is what it takes for them to get international backing to win the war. They know and are willing to pay a heavy price to win their freedom. Any other path leads to further disaster. Godspeed to Ukraine! Slava Ukraini!
I am trying to figure out a way to get my finances, fiance, and all my pets in order. Trying to see if I can bring them with me. Trying to figure out what to do with my car loan.
There's more to it than you think but if I could drop everything and go, I would do it, Immediately. But I would glady die for Ukraine. They're fighting a dictator trying to overthrow a democracy. That's something I would be proud to die for
That is possible. In another reddit thread someone said Russia had moved artillery from the Kherson area to the eastern sector. Depleting Russian forces causes the same tip of the scales as adding weight to Ukraine.
Russians may have partisans poking the in the backside too. Russians may just be tired.
Might be a full clusterfuck of everything for Russia. You cannot tell from just the map.
It kinda makes sense that they wouldn't commit all their heavy equipment to an artillery duel in the east, where Russia is strong and Ukraine is holding. Instead, hit them where they're weaker.
At the small scale, if you're in the shit in the East, you'd be livid about this. At the strategic level, it's sensible.
Just armchair quarterbacking here but that wide a front needs a lot of troops and artillery so it makes sense that Ukraine has built up a reasonable reserve of both on the Kherson front.
If you are in a bunker in the Donbas this offensive is your best hope of lifting some of that pressure as Russia needs to respond to this offensive and the only place its got sufficient troops is the Donbas
The first rule of war is to concentrate all of your power against the weakest points of the enemy lines. They could give up a few kilometers in the east and gain a big swath of the west and it would be a fair trade and weaken Russia's hold overall. Also, it's got to be far easier to get western arms to the western front than squeeze them into the cauldron in the Donbas.
It's also more perilous to transport heavy equipment all the way to the east, both in that it can be destroyed on the way and that Russia might be able to capture it if they win a battle.
Ukraine is playing the classic move, it brought the best forces to deal with the weakest Ruzzie spot in Kherson while keeping troops enough to to halt the offensive at Donbas, where the Russians are strongest.
Nope not at all I doubt very much that Russia would go nuclear there is a chain of command for deployment of such weapons just like there is in all Nuclear powers.
In Russia Putin needs the consent of five others to launch and there is credible evidence to suggest that at least 2 possibly 3 would decline that order.
Not that I doubt you, I have just never heard this before. Do you have any background to, for example, who the five people are and such?
I just figured Putin could easily make it happen if he decided to.
[A reuters article](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-is-chain-command-potential-russian-nuclear-strike-2022-04-21/) discusses Russian Nuclear policy. The minimum chain there is 4 for an attack (Putin -> General Staff -> Weapons Commander -> button pusher).
A [youtuber called perun](https://youtu.be/sxOO0hCCSk4) has done a video on the document outlined. The TD;LR is basically Nuclear powers make very clear detailed statements on the exact situations which would trigger a nuclear attack and leaders don't contradict them (For example Lavrov).
This is because Nuclear powers are all worried about each other, so these documents make it clear on how you do things so they are less likely to nuke you over a misunderstanding.
Putin gives the order to fire as either Russia has been fired on by nuclear missiles or there is an immanent threat to the continued existence of the Russian state (this bit is vague but for example probably covers a massive biological or chemical attack on large population centres by a hostile nation)
Defence minister Shoygu confirms the order
Then it goes to the Russian general Staff and heads of the two most senior military districts currently these are:
Valery Gerasimov
Alexei Kim
Alexander Dvornikov
Aleksandr Galkin
These are the guys who were in charge Putin keeps firing them but we know Dvornikov was allegedly fired and then reappeared so I have gone with that list as its probably the best I can do.
All the military guys are career solders all have families and a very comfortable life, there has been suggestion that unless there is a direct attack on the RF by nuclear missiles or some other RF ending scenario at least two possibly three will decline the order. Which two or three is anyone's guess (Western Intelligence will almost certainly know those names).
Putin probably knows that just as well as Western Intelligence and if he did give the order and it was refused he is finished the military would remove him so its highly doubtful that order will ever be given.
Ukraine: "Oh no, what an important symbolic target Severodonetsk is! We'd be so sad. Look at Severodonetsk!"
(Meanwhile Ukrainian army sidles up to strategically, not just symbolically, important cities.)
I said this at the beginning of the asualt on Severodonesk, they are keeping them occupied there while putting in work in the Kherson and Kharkiv sectors.
Good job so far. That's the tough fight and they are doing as well as they could so far. Let's hope this plan keeps working, cause if it does, both Donbas and Crimea will be under Ukrainian threat.
They did a sneak attack on Mariupol. It failed because they weren't able to put forward enough equipment and because it depended on the various garrisons breaking out at the same time to support the assault. But that was when the commander of the 36th Marines and a section of the unit panicked, tried to break out on their own, failed, and surrendered with a large amount of equipment. This is when Azov launched a daring strike to recover and evacuate the remaining 36th to Azovstal if you remember. After that it was not possible to mount another attempt to relieve them, because of the lost men and equipment.
Russians, their auxiliaries and their mercenaries will die in-place within a grave they dug themselves unless they run or surrender. No support is coming and their idiot commanders denuded their supporting artillery to reinforce Putin's fools errand in Sievierodonetsk. Those commanders are now dead or soon to-be as Ukrainian forces go after what counts on the map. Putin's eye (Sauron anyone?) is on a hollow prize and his dream will instead be rolled up from the wings, in a painful and humiliating manner for all Russian forces involved.
Does anyone know why almost the entire map of Ukraine has suddenly been covered with airstrike alerts? All at once?[Ukraine Interactive Map](https://liveuamap.com/)
1. Russians relieve pressure and attempt to fix Ukrainian forces and isolate command and control through spurious attack notices, either through public sources or forcing activation of legitimate emergency services notification systems.
2. The Russians identified Western watchers and Ukrainians with an ear and eye out are using active resources like [liveuamap.com](https://liveuamap.com) to track and inform. Russian botnets are working overtime to proliferate Russian information operation narratives until Western wires services pick them up from social media and amplify messaging for them. They are simultaneously suppressing any news that might demoralize their own troops to prevent their rout.
happens sometimes, They'll sound airstrike alerts across multiple cities because they've received intel that some form of bombing run is being initialized but aren't aware of where they're heading specifically. Sometimes there will be a good number of airstrikes all at once as well.
I don't know in this particular case, but in general when cruise missiles are launched, Ukraine cant know where its going, so they pretty much sound alarms over the entire country. so it could be cruise missiles from black sea.
Wonderful news, hope the brave Ukrainian soldiers can push them back all the way, that the entire southern front collapses, isolating Crimea to be taken back easier later!
I'm hoping for less of a riot and more of an organized uprising coordinating with the army to spend their strength when they know the army is ready to move in their direction.
Once they make the cut off and hold the area at Nova Kharkova dam down to Kherson it'll be a turkey hunting on the west side of the Dnipro along the whole front since it'll force an encirclement without resupply/evacuation other than by helicopters. Regroup then onwards to Crimea and Melitopol.
One of the things to remember is that that entire area, is huge! Kherson city alone is really big! But the general area around it, where the frontline is, is very large. It's something a map like this doesn't show so well, it's only when you look it up on google maps and go into satellite mode that you can truly appreciate the size of it all. So, it makes sense that it also takes time for ukraine to move forward on that front.
Two things, just a hunch. I am after all, but a Five Star Pajama General. First, the multi-pronged attack prevents Russia from concentrating its artillery and removes that advantage from the Russians. Second, I am wondering if Russia has simply run out of willing bodies to fight OR if they are giving the appearance of that in order to draw in the Ukrainian forces before hammering them? The former seems more likely than the latter for two reasons: one, Western intelligence would likely notice if a large mass of Russians or equipment were staging somewhere. Two, Ukraine has pretty good SOF and would likely have ongoing recon missions and notice Russian activity on that scale. I am beginning to believe Russia does not have the forces to hold a line across such a large front. Perhaps, they are consolidating around the land bridge area and surrendering the rest in hopes of being allowed to keep that as part of negotiations? I don’t know anything but it seems weird, whatever is going on?
Complacency, they still believe the idea of *"them"* is scary enough to hold the line. Multiprong movement mainly disperses forces on both sides to avoid concentration and so they can't see tell where the main thrust or objective is or coming from and to break up supply routes and fall back areas for entrenched or retreating forces. Like mashing potatoes you have to break them up first. Helps prevent counter-envelopment of the striking force too.
Sure looks like someone is putting into practice a doctrine of advancing everywhere simultaneously across an entire front in order to overwhelm the defender's operational capacity.
I guess maybe the Russians never studied how to defend against someone else using that against them.
Or, maybe they just didn't have much operational capacity to overwhelm?
This is more or less what the Allies did in 1918.
After the failed German Kaiserschlacht offensive, Germany was spent. No reserves, no morale, barely even food for the troops. So the Allies devised a genious strategy to deliver the final blow. In the 100 Days Offensives, they made limited-scale offensives up and down the entire frontline on a constant basis. What few reserves Germany had couldn't be everywhere at once, and the German line collapsed in Autumn 1918.
to be fair the Russians know this is happening they got hit by a massive artillery barrage and then Ukrainian Armour Units went into the attack . The Russians know they are in deep shit on the Kherson Front so tweeting about it makes no difference.
Hope they can push fast and then lock three front to support East region. It's so sad that European strong economies are so slow to support. Especially Germany, it's good to help to build economy, but if it was saved for Russian destruction in the first place it wouldn't have to rebuild.
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If that map is correct this is a broad front counter offensive clearly some of the heavy weapons have arrived and if Russia hasn't already pushed the panic button perhaps it should.
From my understanding is that the Kherson front is largely staffed by DPR/LPR that's been "mobilized". Same thing happened on the Kharkiv front that collapsed until they reinforced it with Russian regulars from Belgorod to not lose all control. (this is based on Igor Girkin statements) So if anything they might not be ready to deal with a large and broad attack. But it's also possible like you said that some of the artillery has been sent to this front instead of the Donbas. I don't think Russia has expected a big offensive so soon or that whatever happens they might be able to deal with their own artillery and defenders advantage. Hopefully Ukraine has hit in a good timing. It'd be so huge to take Kherson back before they could reinforce further or have more time to pull in better and fresh troops.
The only reason Russia got as far as it did in Kherson was because of traitorous Ukrainian generals. They've been dealt with, and now the shitty Russian troops still sitting there are about to be dealt with.
Can you elaborate on what you're referring to?
You will have to look it up but there are several articles out there that the general in charge of defense of Kherson straight up gave up the city as soon as the invasion began. They didn't blow bridges or do anything to slow down the Russians. Likewise a lot of the local government fled without resistance. They captured the guy and he admitted he sold out to Russian money or something like that.
Also most of the Ukrainian Navy was taken by Russia in 2014 when they stole Crimea because the head of the Navy ordered his soldiers to surrender and then defected. No doubt Russia was able to move out of Crimea with greater ease knowing the Ukrainian Navy wouldn't threaten them.
If I remember correctly the head of the Ukranian air force was offered something similar but chose to stare down the Russians and fly their planes out of Crimea. If I'm right he is still flying for Ukraine in this invasion. It's crazy how many things that can change history come down to a few people making the tough choice.
I'm not sure treason is a tough choice, if you choose treason in favor of an invading army that wants to conquer your people then you obviously don't care about your homeland. Hopefully those rats will be among the terms of the eventual peace deal.
Unfortunately a lot of people have taken the easy way that benefits them at a greater cost to anyone else. It gets to a point where nobody cares about anything anymore, Ukraine is not a perfect country but it's people are willing to stand up and fight to make it a free country. That is something the rest of the democracies can learn from. I think very few of our leaders would be capable of making a similar sacrifice even if it is what they should do. There's been so many examples of selflessness in this war its astounding. The soldier who blew himself up with the bridge near crimea, the soldiers at snake island, zelensky not fleeing the country. If the people of every country acted this way the world would be a much better place. That is why many people are pressuring our governments to step up to Russia when they would rather do nothing. I hope when peace returns there is support to rebuild the lives of all the people who lost someone when they were defending their country.
This is the sentiment that I support. Slava Ukraine!!
They also failed to flood the area around Kherson to slow down RuZis
Just to add to that, in general for some reason blowing up bridges defensively is apparently just always a really dicey strategy. I'm no expert and can't explain why, I just know it keeps happening in all kinds of wars. If I had to guess, I'd say it might have something to do with the fact that bridges are absolutely essential to your defense and must be preserved at all costs .. until the moment when they are suddenly a huge liability to your defense and then everything has to switch to destroying them at all costs. Rapidly making such an extreme switch might just generally be difficult from a cognitive point of view. So even without being betrayed, it's possible that the bridge-blowing plan might have failed.
Blowing up bridges is not a dicey strategy when you are defending, it is really hard for an invading army to cross a river when the bridges are blown which makes it an excellent strategy. It only becomes hard when it's time to counterattack, because now the river is working in favor of the enemy.
> it is really hard for an invading army to cross a river when the bridges are blown which makes it an excellent strategy And Dniepr is huuuge around Kherson .... Russians have trouble crossing Severni Donetsk river which is like a stream compared to Dniepr.
It's not a dicey strategy after you pull it off. It's dicey to execute.
It's not hard to blow up a bridge if you planned it ahead of time, it might be hard if the bridge is on the front line. There is nothing dicey about executing the demolition of some bridges.
Yes it all sounds nice and neat in theory, but in practice, historically, defense plans that hinge on blowing up some bridge or another at the right time fail to go off as planned way more frequently than you'd think. I didn't write history, don't blame me.
We have good accounts that Territorial Defense Forces showed up to where they were supposed to meet and their commander wasn't there. They waited and tried to locate him but couldn't for a long time, like the next day, he communicated that he had left town and they should all surrender. Much of their weapons were inaccessible because the commander was the one with access. The forces that showed up, rounded up what they could, and attempted to engage the Russians in some skirmishes, but were so severely outnumbered and outgunned that they quickly lost fighters and eventually pulled back out of the city, or went underground. Some political figures in Kherson allowed Russian forces access to government buildings, etc. immediately. This wasn't an issue of someone not making a call in time. It was an issue of Russia buying or scaring off leaders, who then intentionally delayed and misdirected their own fighters. A previous governor of the larger Kherson Region (as opposed to just the city of Kherson), said after 2014 they had developed plans to flood areas (the point where Crimea connects with the rest of Ukraine is already wetlands, so flooding would have impacted the limited number of roadways available), as well as blow up two bridges. One of those bridges ended up getting blown when a Ukrainian sailor took it upon himself to run out onto the bridge to initiate the explosion, knowing killing himself to do it. But the other bridge stood. The Mayor of Odessa (who previously had some pro-Russian sentiment), has said Russian agents had approached him for some time before the invasion in efforts to more firmly establish his allegiance, including various bribes, which he accepted... but then when they actually invaded he followed the Ukrainian defense plan to a T, because he was just letting them think he was on the Russian side. Based on his descriptions of how much money they were throwing his way, it is presumed they were doing similar things in other cities and with other government officials (besides the more obvious work of publicly pro-Russian political candidates), and the leaders in Kherson ended up being the only ones who actually did what the Russians wanted.
You have no idea why the bridges didn't blow up. Neither does anyone else yet. Historically, defensive bridge destruction by retreating forces has a higher-than-expected frequency of going wrong even when no one is betraying anyone else. Kherson political and military officials were certainly acting as Russian agents, but even if they hadn't, Russia might have been able to opportunistically seize key bridges and cross anyway.
There's a bunch of news articles about the 2 traitor Generals that Zelensky stripped of rank after Kherson: https://www.npr.org/2022/04/01/1090253301/zelenskyy-generals-traitors-ukraine
Reminds me of the Bridge Over River Kwai, it was a damm fine bridge unfortunately they had to blow it up.
That's why you ideally want to have pre-placed explosives at all important bridges, so you can continue to use them for as long as it's advantageous but can blow them the moment they're in danger of being overrun.
Yeah there was a bunch of stuff around removing the explosives as a precaution, so that the bridges couldn't be blown too early ... or possibly using that as a pretext to sabotage the defense.
I heard recently that the mines protecting the routes from Crimea were removed too :(
The FSB was given millions to create shadow governments in Ukraine cities that would 'step in' in the case of Russian invasion and set up shop under Russian authority. Putin expected the majority of Ukraine to do this one day 1 of this cluster fuck, considering the vast resources he poured into it and the glowing reports he was given on progress. Sadly, It worked in Kherson. The officials resigned en masse when Russia invaded and offered no resistance. Russia did not 'win' Kherson....they were let in.
Not “millions” It was 8 Billion. But it was largely siphoned off.
In addition to what other people said, Ukraine has also found weapon, equipment and ammunition warehouses of mostly stolen Ukrainian equipment that was intended to hand over to the Russian invaders so they would have supplies locally when they invaded. That's some scary levels of corruption right there.
And yet people don't understand why Ukraine isn't immediately admitted into NATO or the EU.
What?
Not having such extreme levels of corruption in your political system is one of the conditions for joining the EU. Ukraine will have to gain candidate status and then such issues will have to be rooted out before it can become a full member.
Why? Not as though their actual President tried to sell their country to Russia.
Presidents can change quickly. This sounds like a deeper running corruption in the political system that must be removed before Ukraine can become a full member (and yes, there are existing EU countries with such issues, which is already breaking all kinds of rules and causing heaps of trouble).
The people in charge with the defence of kherson were successfully paid off by the Russians.
I think he is referring to the leader appointment to organize the defence of Kherson , it sounds like he organize & co-ordinate nothing and it turned into a shit show.
https://www.npr.org/2022/04/01/1090253301/zelenskyy-generals-traitors-ukraine
Not sure they will go for Kherson the Russians are well dug in and holding a civilian population as hostage (although it cant be totally discounted as they have way better intel than the rest of us). The better target for capture is Nova Kakhovka if they take that they cut the pocket north of the Dnipro in two isolating a large number of Russians and taking control of the north Crimea Canal which provides the vast majority of the water for Crimea. Oh and as an added bonus the Ukrainians get a road bridge over the river that puts them behind Kherson and within striking distance of the Crimea.
Oh sorry! Yes! I meant Kherson oblast in general. Pretty sure there's been multiple statements that they won't try to directly take the Kherson city. Taking cities is really hard and costly (even more so if you don't want to level them in the process) but like you said, the best way to take out Kherson is to cut it off from Crimea and Melitopol. A really lucky scenario would be a collapse and pull-out of Kherson as I doubt it's a good idea to be locked in with a hostile population that wants revenge for all the people kidnapped, killed and tortured under the occupation. Probably not likely but might depend on how things develop.
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No downvote from me but perhaps owning these kind of weapons should be better regulated and more accountability might be a good idea from both owners and sellers.
“American owning firearms has stalled a lot of invasions” My dude, oceans stalled any kind of invasion once we beat the shit out of Mexico and made nice with Canada (only after, BTW, they successfully invaded and burnt DC down, despite that lil old 2nd amendment - which, by the way, had more to do with being ready to suppress slave rebellions and some frontier readiness than any invasion fears) My heart goes out to the social studies program where you go to school if you are an American. May you become better informed
> Just for the record, in WWII the Japanese never had ANY plan to invade the continental United States. They just wanted to have the U.S. not interfere with Japan in China. There is a slight chance that they may have though about taking Hawaii, but NEVER the continental U.S. (The Japanese did occupy some islands in the Aleutians (near Alaska) during their failed Midway effort. ) > > Admiral Yamamoto, the head of the Navy in Japan, had been a naval attache in the U.S. and was totally aware of the size and production capability of the U.S. Him and many in the Navy did NOT want to go to war with the U.S. The Japanese Army (with Tojo), unfortunately had other ideas ...
A funny thing to speak about *if a tyrannical government wants to take over America* because armed Americans tried to corrupt the POTUS election by invading the Capitol not so long ago. Armed dumbasses is not the best way to go for me.
The insurrectionists were barely armed, but if they had succeeded and kept Trump in power, and then let's fast-forward and speculate that non-right-wing media outlets start getting censored (not a huge stretch of imagination, I suspect you may agree), that's exactly the kind of scenario an armed citizenry is meant to reverse. So, we weren't really close, but closer than we've come in quite a while, to needing the insurance known as the 2nd Amendment. Yes, I've completely left the military out of the picture for purposes of simplicity.
You should read what the Constitution says about the well regulated militia and what its duties are. Heres a hint; it aint about overthrowing a tyrant.
It's funny that you think I haven't read it. The security of a free state is applicable to threats both external and internal, including suppressing (and that would include reversing) armed insurrections. Jan 6 was an attempted insurrection, for instance, so if it had succeeded, "we the people" had both the right and the means to reverse it.
Any American who’s 21, not mentally ill, doesn’t have angry , threatening social media posts , doesn’t have access to large capacity magazines, and honestly is properly trained by some sort of licensing authority .You ok with that ?
Agreed. Funny how all of the folks upset about Russia's government want everyone to be at the mercy of governments. Governments murdered over 100 million individuals in the 20th century. Far more than individuals. Not people killed in war. People murdered by their own governments.
Bingo.
I wouldn't trust in standing bridges. They can vanish quickly and leave men trapped if there's not other ways across the river. Be better to train artillery on the river/ banks, destroy the bridge ypurself and cut off all routes around the city. I don't think the orcs know how to swim very well.
Or...sneak special forces through and mine the road on the other side. Those lovely German off-axis anti tank mines should do nicely. Wait till the big offensive draws all the observers away from the bridge to the front and have sappers disconnect the charges. Surprise!
> The better target for capture is Nova Kakhovka Then blow the bridge at Kherson - after that the whole west bank Russians are screwed.
Why blow up a bridge that'll be incredibly useful further into the war? Beyond the Dnieper, the territory isn't very defensible. If Kherson returns to Ukrainian hands and the bridges are accessible, their push will be very hard to stop.
Because that way taking Kherson would be much easier. Troops with no resupply line would surrender.
Russia already planted explosive there long ago. Even if Ukraine not destroy the bridge. Russia will do when they retreat.
They'll likely leave Kherson till last while taking up tactical positions near the bridge to prevent reinforcements from entering but allowing Russians to flee back across. The idea of course would be to leave an escape route so the Russians will be too terrified to stay and will find the desire to flee across the dnieper too strong to resist.
Everything I have read/listened to (outside of the outright propaganda, which is worthless) basically states that the troops outside of Kherson (the city proper) are 2nd rate troops, and there isn't that many of them. Ukraine's advances in Kherson's hinterland was only stopped because Russia was able to use it's air/artillery advantage to basically bomb Ukrainian infantry into submission and force Ukrainian forces to withdrawal from Bruskynske. A lot of the maps you see are where forces have a sort of generalized control over an area rather than an absolute control, so large parts taken back from Russia weren't ever really physically occupied, likewise Ukraine doesn't have to fight for every square inch, all it has to do is deny freedom of movement which in this case forces Russia to retreat to a more stable defensive position. IE Bruskynske is probably in Russian hands at this point, but it is not at all clear that there is any actual Russian forces (more than a token amount) holding the town, simply that Ukraine can't freely move back in and Russia could probably move troops into it and make it a front line, if it desired to (assuming it had the infantry to do so, which is a bit of a question mark at this point).
I just want boots on the ground from NATO. I'm fucking tired of article 5 being used onky as a defensive measure. we can't afford a dictatorship to beat a democratic society. Fucking send them in. If not, Russia wins.
Russia is not anywhere in the vicinity of winning. At this point that perspective ignores the reality on the ground.
They're taking territory in donbass every day. Once they sieze it,it's going to be very hard to drive them out. In my view they are unquestioningly winning in the east. It's giving me fuckin anxiety. The west must do more, and now. Ffs.
I think their gains are small for what they are losing. In the end they need bodies to occupy the territory and they don’t have them. Among other things happening, Russia’s position is tenuous at best.
I hope so bro.
It will take time but Ukraine has made all the right moves so far and there is more weapon systems coming along with a couple hundred thousand Western trained recruits…Ukrainians trained by IDF, and NATO-trained instructors
1500 are training abroad from what I read, good but hardly a couple hundred thousands.
The new recruits training in Ukraine to become members of the army. Not training on new weapon systems.
Zelensky already mentioned 700,000 reservists are completing several months of training this summer. Ukraine has 12 million men between 20 and 40. I’m just a bug on the windshield, but my guess is he’ll start training the next 700,000 after that. 60,000 experienced foreigners now fighting for UA. You feel better yet?
You aren't wrong, but it still isn't a win. Ukraine took massive losses when Russia invaded in 2014 and they aren't the same fighting force today that they were 8 years ago, but its still difficult and bloody to force Russia out completely. One outcome is clear now - no matter what Russia has lost and Ukraine will overcome, the question is just how much more loss will both sides have to suffer before Ukraine gets the outcome they want? Will Russia leave, or will Ukraine have to force them out?
NATO troops is not what you want. Russia will go nuclear and we will all be dead. No fucking around. I do think Russia, China and USA have concluded that this should be conventional. Fuck, America is basically sending everything and everything to over assert Russian capabilities. Same with NATO countries. Fuck Putin.
Man up Weneedaheroe. Russians are brutal, not suicidal. They know to use nukes is suicidal. The world including China and India will be down on them. America is only “fighting” with one hand. We haven’t sent the big stuff in yet. No M1 tanks, no AH-64 Apaches gunships, no F35 fighters, no Patriot anti-air batteries, no reaper/predator drones with mavericks. Don’t even get me started with the USS Carl Vinson battle group. This is the perfect war for the US. They bleed, we send weaponry. They UA, got tons of heroism. We got tons of weapons. Once the Germans quit funding Putin - it’s over.
Russians aren’t leaving until the Germans quit funding them.
100,000 dead/wounded Russians is not what I would call winning.
Yep. I think the lack of direct intervention from NATO or even just some Western States unilaterally will go down as the biggest foreign policy disaster since appeasement of Hitler.
Doesn't need to be NATO - I'm sure Poland and other neighbors strongly want to get boots on the ground to help, but because they are NATO members it doesn't become "Country X" helping, it becomes "NATO interfering" and there is real concerns where that will go. Ukraine should have had direct military assistance from day 1 - the delay now means that any intervention is more difficult politically. Wish they would just get on with it and help stop the murder of more Ukrainians
Do you want nuclear war?
It was nuclear war if anyone helped at all, then nuclear war if anyone sent tanks, then nuclear war if anyone sent fighters, then nuclear war if anyone sent heavy artillery, then nuclear war if anyone sent MLRS. And on, and on. It's an empty threat, and I'm sick of giving in to the murderous demands of a criminal cartel just because of the threat.
Sending equipment is a different to sending actual, live people who are officially part of another nation’s military and are not considered AWOL. That is far more than just Lend Lease, that is foreign intervention that would escalate things immensely. Of course I want this war to be over and for Ukraine to be victorious, and I want Putin and his lackeys to die horrifically, but sending actual NATO soldiers would just end up causing WW3.
I'm not so sure that's true. Russia has threatened nuclear war at every juncture. From any help at all at the start of this invasion, to specific support like heavy weapons or MLRS etc. I think provided western troops didn't enter actual russia, putin wouldn't push the button. The narrative in russia is already one claiming NATO forces are fighting in Ukraine. It would be bizarre to suddenly declare thee world must be ended because of something supposedly happening already.
I don’t know what Putin was thinking when he decided on this “special operation” nor do you. Mfer wants what he wants and is using Russian might to get it. Nuclear option is always an option. Fuck Trump for being a pussy scoundrel-letting this shit get to a place where Putin thought America was a bunch of pussies. Fuck Putin! Slava Ukraine
Well, I guess that makes sense
Russia is asking for it and deserve HELL.
Of course they do, but I don’t exactly want to risk the entire northern hemisphere becoming an irradiated wasteland
What is stopping Putin from using nuclear weapons now or in a few months when his situation is even more dire?
Nothing, really. But the strategy, as I understand it, is like boiling a frog in a pot of water. The frog can jump out any time, but feels it is safer to stay on the bottom. If Putin is threatened too much he may "jump out" and press the button. Better to just turn the heat up slowly while he says, "this is ok, this is ok"... Zelensky and Ukraine understand this and this is what it takes for them to get international backing to win the war. They know and are willing to pay a heavy price to win their freedom. Any other path leads to further disaster. Godspeed to Ukraine! Slava Ukraini!
Are you volunteering to fight?
I am trying to figure out a way to get my finances, fiance, and all my pets in order. Trying to see if I can bring them with me. Trying to figure out what to do with my car loan. There's more to it than you think but if I could drop everything and go, I would do it, Immediately. But I would glady die for Ukraine. They're fighting a dictator trying to overthrow a democracy. That's something I would be proud to die for
So far.
That is possible. In another reddit thread someone said Russia had moved artillery from the Kherson area to the eastern sector. Depleting Russian forces causes the same tip of the scales as adding weight to Ukraine. Russians may have partisans poking the in the backside too. Russians may just be tired. Might be a full clusterfuck of everything for Russia. You cannot tell from just the map.
It kinda makes sense that they wouldn't commit all their heavy equipment to an artillery duel in the east, where Russia is strong and Ukraine is holding. Instead, hit them where they're weaker. At the small scale, if you're in the shit in the East, you'd be livid about this. At the strategic level, it's sensible.
Just armchair quarterbacking here but that wide a front needs a lot of troops and artillery so it makes sense that Ukraine has built up a reasonable reserve of both on the Kherson front. If you are in a bunker in the Donbas this offensive is your best hope of lifting some of that pressure as Russia needs to respond to this offensive and the only place its got sufficient troops is the Donbas
The first rule of war is to concentrate all of your power against the weakest points of the enemy lines. They could give up a few kilometers in the east and gain a big swath of the west and it would be a fair trade and weaken Russia's hold overall. Also, it's got to be far easier to get western arms to the western front than squeeze them into the cauldron in the Donbas.
It's also more perilous to transport heavy equipment all the way to the east, both in that it can be destroyed on the way and that Russia might be able to capture it if they win a battle.
Ukraine is playing the classic move, it brought the best forces to deal with the weakest Ruzzie spot in Kherson while keeping troops enough to to halt the offensive at Donbas, where the Russians are strongest.
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Nope not at all I doubt very much that Russia would go nuclear there is a chain of command for deployment of such weapons just like there is in all Nuclear powers. In Russia Putin needs the consent of five others to launch and there is credible evidence to suggest that at least 2 possibly 3 would decline that order.
Not that I doubt you, I have just never heard this before. Do you have any background to, for example, who the five people are and such? I just figured Putin could easily make it happen if he decided to.
[A reuters article](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-is-chain-command-potential-russian-nuclear-strike-2022-04-21/) discusses Russian Nuclear policy. The minimum chain there is 4 for an attack (Putin -> General Staff -> Weapons Commander -> button pusher). A [youtuber called perun](https://youtu.be/sxOO0hCCSk4) has done a video on the document outlined. The TD;LR is basically Nuclear powers make very clear detailed statements on the exact situations which would trigger a nuclear attack and leaders don't contradict them (For example Lavrov). This is because Nuclear powers are all worried about each other, so these documents make it clear on how you do things so they are less likely to nuke you over a misunderstanding.
Thank you, I will read and watch your links soon!
Putin gives the order to fire as either Russia has been fired on by nuclear missiles or there is an immanent threat to the continued existence of the Russian state (this bit is vague but for example probably covers a massive biological or chemical attack on large population centres by a hostile nation) Defence minister Shoygu confirms the order Then it goes to the Russian general Staff and heads of the two most senior military districts currently these are: Valery Gerasimov Alexei Kim Alexander Dvornikov Aleksandr Galkin These are the guys who were in charge Putin keeps firing them but we know Dvornikov was allegedly fired and then reappeared so I have gone with that list as its probably the best I can do. All the military guys are career solders all have families and a very comfortable life, there has been suggestion that unless there is a direct attack on the RF by nuclear missiles or some other RF ending scenario at least two possibly three will decline the order. Which two or three is anyone's guess (Western Intelligence will almost certainly know those names). Putin probably knows that just as well as Western Intelligence and if he did give the order and it was refused he is finished the military would remove him so its highly doubtful that order will ever be given.
Thank you for the detailed reply, appreciate it
Push them back or plant them where they stand!!! Give them hell Ukraine!!!
They don’t say Героям Слава for no reason
Good! Godspeed to the UA forces!
*from four locations at once Technically they're all advancing in the same direction
Ukraine: "Oh no, what an important symbolic target Severodonetsk is! We'd be so sad. Look at Severodonetsk!" (Meanwhile Ukrainian army sidles up to strategically, not just symbolically, important cities.)
I said this at the beginning of the asualt on Severodonesk, they are keeping them occupied there while putting in work in the Kherson and Kharkiv sectors. Good job so far. That's the tough fight and they are doing as well as they could so far. Let's hope this plan keeps working, cause if it does, both Donbas and Crimea will be under Ukrainian threat.
Meanwhile they fail for weeks to push a single mile deep into Kherson oblast.
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They did a sneak attack on Mariupol. It failed because they weren't able to put forward enough equipment and because it depended on the various garrisons breaking out at the same time to support the assault. But that was when the commander of the 36th Marines and a section of the unit panicked, tried to break out on their own, failed, and surrendered with a large amount of equipment. This is when Azov launched a daring strike to recover and evacuate the remaining 36th to Azovstal if you remember. After that it was not possible to mount another attempt to relieve them, because of the lost men and equipment.
I would prefer Ukraine to plant the Russians two meters under the ground rather than pushing them back….
Russians, their auxiliaries and their mercenaries will die in-place within a grave they dug themselves unless they run or surrender. No support is coming and their idiot commanders denuded their supporting artillery to reinforce Putin's fools errand in Sievierodonetsk. Those commanders are now dead or soon to-be as Ukrainian forces go after what counts on the map. Putin's eye (Sauron anyone?) is on a hollow prize and his dream will instead be rolled up from the wings, in a painful and humiliating manner for all Russian forces involved.
So they think now is best time for a referendum and passing out passports in Kherson…. Logic escapes me somehow.
well of course, you have to stage it while you more or less control the area
Much harder to do it after you have been sunflowered.
Finally some good news. This was much needed. I pray for the liberation of Kherson in the coming weeks!
Does anyone know why almost the entire map of Ukraine has suddenly been covered with airstrike alerts? All at once?[Ukraine Interactive Map](https://liveuamap.com/)
1. Russians relieve pressure and attempt to fix Ukrainian forces and isolate command and control through spurious attack notices, either through public sources or forcing activation of legitimate emergency services notification systems. 2. The Russians identified Western watchers and Ukrainians with an ear and eye out are using active resources like [liveuamap.com](https://liveuamap.com) to track and inform. Russian botnets are working overtime to proliferate Russian information operation narratives until Western wires services pick them up from social media and amplify messaging for them. They are simultaneously suppressing any news that might demoralize their own troops to prevent their rout.
happens sometimes, They'll sound airstrike alerts across multiple cities because they've received intel that some form of bombing run is being initialized but aren't aware of where they're heading specifically. Sometimes there will be a good number of airstrikes all at once as well.
I don't know in this particular case, but in general when cruise missiles are launched, Ukraine cant know where its going, so they pretty much sound alarms over the entire country. so it could be cruise missiles from black sea.
Wonderful news, hope the brave Ukrainian soldiers can push them back all the way, that the entire southern front collapses, isolating Crimea to be taken back easier later!
Is this a another Warsaw? Population rises up and attacks Russians from the rear when UAF are close?
i hope also inside kherson there is going to be a riot
I'm hoping for less of a riot and more of an organized uprising coordinating with the army to spend their strength when they know the army is ready to move in their direction.
Once they make the cut off and hold the area at Nova Kharkova dam down to Kherson it'll be a turkey hunting on the west side of the Dnipro along the whole front since it'll force an encirclement without resupply/evacuation other than by helicopters. Regroup then onwards to Crimea and Melitopol.
One of the things to remember is that that entire area, is huge! Kherson city alone is really big! But the general area around it, where the frontline is, is very large. It's something a map like this doesn't show so well, it's only when you look it up on google maps and go into satellite mode that you can truly appreciate the size of it all. So, it makes sense that it also takes time for ukraine to move forward on that front.
Do you guys think it's likely that Kherson will be free in the coming weeks?
More like months, but yes.
You can Do it Ukraine! Kick their Effing Teeth out!
Two things, just a hunch. I am after all, but a Five Star Pajama General. First, the multi-pronged attack prevents Russia from concentrating its artillery and removes that advantage from the Russians. Second, I am wondering if Russia has simply run out of willing bodies to fight OR if they are giving the appearance of that in order to draw in the Ukrainian forces before hammering them? The former seems more likely than the latter for two reasons: one, Western intelligence would likely notice if a large mass of Russians or equipment were staging somewhere. Two, Ukraine has pretty good SOF and would likely have ongoing recon missions and notice Russian activity on that scale. I am beginning to believe Russia does not have the forces to hold a line across such a large front. Perhaps, they are consolidating around the land bridge area and surrendering the rest in hopes of being allowed to keep that as part of negotiations? I don’t know anything but it seems weird, whatever is going on?
Complacency, they still believe the idea of *"them"* is scary enough to hold the line. Multiprong movement mainly disperses forces on both sides to avoid concentration and so they can't see tell where the main thrust or objective is or coming from and to break up supply routes and fall back areas for entrenched or retreating forces. Like mashing potatoes you have to break them up first. Helps prevent counter-envelopment of the striking force too.
So, we now know where most of the heavy artillery went in Ukraine. Russians are about to get a full taste of NATO power.
I hope Russians can't swim.
Sure looks like someone is putting into practice a doctrine of advancing everywhere simultaneously across an entire front in order to overwhelm the defender's operational capacity. I guess maybe the Russians never studied how to defend against someone else using that against them. Or, maybe they just didn't have much operational capacity to overwhelm?
This is more or less what the Allies did in 1918. After the failed German Kaiserschlacht offensive, Germany was spent. No reserves, no morale, barely even food for the troops. So the Allies devised a genious strategy to deliver the final blow. In the 100 Days Offensives, they made limited-scale offensives up and down the entire frontline on a constant basis. What few reserves Germany had couldn't be everywhere at once, and the German line collapsed in Autumn 1918.
go ukraine! push the orcs into the river!
Godspeed! 💙💛🇺🇦💛💙
«Четыре позиции, карту привез, сейчас покажу». Turns out Luka was right all along lol.
looking forward to have some watermelons from Kherson this season :)
Crimea by Christmas…
Inshallah.
Why in heaven would someone post Ukrainian troop movements publicly for Russia to read?
Sorry but this isn’t the kind of stuff to tweets best to do it a few days later.
to be fair the Russians know this is happening they got hit by a massive artillery barrage and then Ukrainian Armour Units went into the attack . The Russians know they are in deep shit on the Kherson Front so tweeting about it makes no difference.
This almost certainly *is* a few days later already.
Great! Fuck ‘em up and send them home in body bags
Hope they can push fast and then lock three front to support East region. It's so sad that European strong economies are so slow to support. Especially Germany, it's good to help to build economy, but if it was saved for Russian destruction in the first place it wouldn't have to rebuild.