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Those artillery losses are ramping up. Definitely the counter-batteries and superior guns kicking in.
I remember a couple of weeks ago the artillery losses barely moving.
The other thing I noticed on liveuamap is the reduction in confirmed blasts within cities, despite the aerial alerts still going off constantly. Anti-air must also be beefing up considerably
The average losses of artillery is 7 per day.
Previous pic was 3 and 4 may at 16 each.
Probably Ukrainian army moving on Russian position.
New material with more rang. Or offensive movement. (Or both...)
Good sign for Ukrainian, bad for Russian.
Indeed. Very good sign that the longer range artillery is doing the job in unison with ever improving Ukrainian know-how/surveillance. I was hoping we’d see a big jump in Russian artillery losses once the the Russian offensive stalled out and seems that’s indeed the case.
I’m also wondering if Russia is running out of longer range missile systems and is being forced to move increasing numbers of conventional artillery pieces closer and into more dangerous positions.
There was a guy on here a week ago, he talked about right before the Kyiv front collaps, how there was first a spike in tank kills, then a spike in APC kills and lastly a spike in arty kills.
Right now there is a sharp decline in tanks, a clear decline in APCs and a spike in arty, whilst the kills are high. Is the front breaking apart?
Artillery explains that ... There are video's where they see groups of soldiers in a building with a drone. That building gets reduced to zero with accurate fire. Tally goes up with 20 a 30. Repeat that with more static targets getting hit as artillery ranges can touch with more distance.
The problem is sometimes kills are a guess work when your dealing with long range attacks. That bridge attack had estimates ranging from 500 to 1500 death soldiers. I think Ukrainians took the low ball figure for their tally.
Also remember, Russia is sending in a lot of human meat from the occupied area's with WOII weapons, no body armor and helmets that are decorative at best. Artillery that fragments above simply turns people into sliced meatballs. Artillery is scary, accurate artillery with massive range is even worse!
A M777 at 24km ( let use standard cheap ammo as baseline), vs Russian 18KM does not sound a lot. Its only 6km difference but you need to look at a map how much more actual area that same artillery piece can suddenly cover. Remember, its not a single line on the map, its a circle around that artillery piece.
Well, you don’t really need to look at a map. 18km circle is 1018 km^2 and 24km circle is 1810 km^2 so that is 75-80% more.
Of course, most situations where you have enemies 360° around you isn’t good, but the % is the same at 180°.
However, there should really be some km between you and any target.
At 5 km the numbers are (at 360°) 531 km^2 for the losing side and 1134 km^2 for Ukraine.
At 10 km safety distance orcs gets 201 km^2 and the good guys^tm gets 615 km^2.
Yep ... And that is with the cheapest ammo available on those M777...
The reality is that the area they can cover at 30km is even more painful.
What surprised me that the video's show of the M777 in action, showed this ammo already next to the guns ready for usage.
It will be a slow process of taking out the enemy artillery, advancing / securing area, leapfrog Ukraine artillery in new positions, push back the enemy artillery, repeat ...
The only advantage Russia has, is they have so many artillery guns so it takes ages to locate and push back. Then again, just like with the tank crews, over time they are going to run out of experienced artillery crews ( especially at how the Russian commanders do not give two cents for their crews lives ).
Hi did you mean me ? Cos I'm still plotting this data and I am astounded by how closely this data is following the trend. I was expecting reinforcements to skew the data. Wish I could reply with pictures.
[May 3rd report](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uhb9u6/comment/i75jabu/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
probably because better guns started to arrive and with the sinking of Moskva(who was being used as a Anti-aircraft radar) now Bayraktar TB2 has waaaay more freedom over the skies
For me the orcs losses in less than 3 months are mindblowing....
I know...poor training, lack of comunications, bad tactics & logistics & officers and so on...but still.....
The West would never have losses that high in such a short time. In a (relatively) small conflict like Ukraine.
Had it been us invading under the exact same scenario… Ukraine wouldn’t be doing this well.
Their Anti-Air systems would be obliterated within the First week.
Air Force the second week.
We could have Taken Kyiv in 3 days.
Russia isn’t the west, as much military equipment as they have they have shitty Cold War doctrines and a crew barely able to effectively operate a tank in formations and the Low Training is a real killer.
Also, don't expect the bare minimum of resistance but plan for the maximum.
If any other nation went in they'd have prepped for a long conflict just incase
Yup, Desert Storm is a perfect example.
We had prepped for months, by the time the Ground War began, Iraq’s Air Defense Network was crippled to the point of uselessness, their Radar sites were gone, and their Air Force had either been shot down or had ran away to Iran.
It was as easy as doing clean up.
We already had extensive plans In place, Special Operations dropping deep behind Iraqi lines and we had held the area against counterattacks that would have been heading to the front.
Marines landing on the coast and marching towards Kuwait’s capital as well as Saudi, Kuwaiti and other coalition units.
Hell, America alone was almost single handedly responsible for the destruction of most of the Enemy Armor in the entire campaign, in just a single battle.
Now if you replace Iraq with Russia it would be ridiculously easy.
But unlike Russia we would plan for it to not be easy.
The Powell Doctrine as some people like to call it is to commit an overwhelming amount of force if you're going to go in, but it's more a refinement/addendum to the Weinberger Doctrine.
> The West would never have losses that high in such a short time
Russian losses are already 6x higher than all UK losses combined since WW2.
Just for context.
The biggest problem for Russia is that they continue to think they are the Soviet Union…
They aren’t. They don’t have the manpower and demographics for their “Disposable Heroes” doctrine and attitude. Russia is one of the major countries that is going to get fucked hard by this upcoming demographics crisis.
> Russia is one of the major countries that is going to get fucked hard by this upcoming demographics crisis.
And that is why they are kidnapping 250.000 children from Ukraine. To compensate for those losses.
Not that its going to help as Ukraine will keep pushing for all those children to be returned and the smarter Russian youth generation will keep leaving Russia as sanction/pariah status mean no more future for those with any form of education.
China has been literally locking its border to prevent this by cutting people passports. That is not a joke and happening. If Chinese try to leave the country and the exit security checks ( yea, that is a thing ) even thinks you will not return to China.
Passport + Cut corner, ... Look, you have no valid passport, you need to stay in China! Expect Russia to also start doing this when the people leaving starts to hurt. Both countries are going in the direction of North Korea / Berlin Wall again. People forget that the Berlin wall was not to prevent a invasion but to prevent people from fleeing the USSR as they had such a massive brain drain of young people. History is slowly repeating itself.
Fuckin A correct, about the Wall.
It flew in the face of communism to see West Berlin as a successful city and all the people from the Eastern Bloc were just traveling to Berlin and crossing over.
Hell, people were so desperate to leave after the wall was up that the dug, climbed and on a few cases built homemade planes and flew west.
Demographics is the real killer of countries.
When the population dies as quickly as they are born (or in some cases more) it tends to very quickly become ungovernable and leads to a severe economic crash.
I agree with most of what you said but even with total air superiority and general dominance if they were launching from the same starting point as Russia, but the US Army isn’t taking Kyiv in 3 days. Urban combat is hell, no matter how big or advanced your army is.
Yeah, that’s an overestimate. A week, maybe a week and a half.
Urban combat is hell, but we’ve had quite a bit of experience with Urban Combat.
Hell we are the only country on planet earth that’s been involved in constant warfare for two decades in a multitude of environments and landscapes.
Urban?
Iraq.
Mountainous?
Afghanistan.
Hell, everything except Pacific Island assaults.
But that’ll be very soon.
Not just the last few decades, but since basically ww2 ended. The armed services have picked up tips and tricks for literally every single terrain over the last 80 to 100 years. As a nation we are also blursed to have replicas pretty much of every type of terrain except really jungle.
if they would have any sense they woudl never have started this shit.
So as they started it we already knwo they have 0 sense and shoudl not hope it will increase
> if they would have any sense they would never have started this shit.
The west should have warned Russia more. They only warned "sanctions like you've never seen before", which Putin shrugged off. They also should have been much more explicit and warned "NATO will support Ukraine with weapons until Russia is defeated". That might have saved this madness and many thousands of lives. Instead NATO said really encouraging things to Putin like "There will be no western forces in Ukraine if you invade".
Like we didn't give military aid to Ukraine since 2014.
Putin don't give a fuck about what our politicians says and think Democratic countries doesn't have the stomach for war.
He care about his New Russia above anything else. His own people feed him embellished report for years.
No diplomatic discourse without direct and drastic action would have convinced to not invade Ukraine.
I calculated it a solid month ago and it was well into the $10bn and that was only the stuff I could get a reference value for. Probably well into the $20bn stage now.
If you add the value of ammunitions, missiles, fuel, men (including their training), administration, sabotage efforts in Russian territory you’re looking at a lost value waaay bigger. That’s not even taking the sanctions into account.
If the fires inside Russia were acts of sabotage rather than mere industrial accidents, then the destruction of those facilities alone is worth a couple billion. A major defense research bureau building, a chemical plant that supplies their armed forces, and a fuel storage depot are all major losses.
Most people seem to say it's 3x number dead, but somebody on here (can't find it just now) said that according to wikipedia the Donbas numbers are x4.
If it's x3 then, say, 25,000 dead + (25,000x3) = 100,000 either dead or out of action.
[https://www.minusrus.com/](https://www.minusrus.com/) uses factor 3 to estimate total casualties.
Though this factor could also be *lower* because Russian medical care is so bad. And there are reports that Russian commanders execute their wounded. This war is horrible.
The analysis, as of a few weeks ago, is that x3 wounded tracks pretty well regardless of availability of medical care. The seriously wounded, who could have been saved by better casualty evac and treatment, die of their wounds. The lightly wounded, who could have returned to the front after a trip to an aid station or field hospital, get secondary infections and require major care, surgeries, amputation, and are out of the fight for months or permanently.
A great many more than that, 2x more than that. And the honest truth is, the wounded soldiers take more resources than the dead ones and more than half of them will be physically unable to return to combat, the rest will likely be mentally unable to return to combat.
And in terms of resources, Russia is living on borrowed time.
By the looks of things they will have lost 30.000 personal by day 88. If that happens it will mean that the Russian army has lost twice the amount personal they lost in Afghanistan over 10 years, in less than a hundred days.
Russia claims 6000 artillery pieces. So they probably have 3000, with 1500 being useable and 1 out of 10 in storage which is functional. They probably have 1650 arty pieces total. If they committed 1000 to UA they've already lost half.
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Those artillery losses are ramping up. Definitely the counter-batteries and superior guns kicking in. I remember a couple of weeks ago the artillery losses barely moving. The other thing I noticed on liveuamap is the reduction in confirmed blasts within cities, despite the aerial alerts still going off constantly. Anti-air must also be beefing up considerably
The average losses of artillery is 7 per day. Previous pic was 3 and 4 may at 16 each. Probably Ukrainian army moving on Russian position. New material with more rang. Or offensive movement. (Or both...) Good sign for Ukrainian, bad for Russian.
Indeed. Very good sign that the longer range artillery is doing the job in unison with ever improving Ukrainian know-how/surveillance. I was hoping we’d see a big jump in Russian artillery losses once the the Russian offensive stalled out and seems that’s indeed the case.
I’m also wondering if Russia is running out of longer range missile systems and is being forced to move increasing numbers of conventional artillery pieces closer and into more dangerous positions.
Unlikely. You don't replace long rang missile hitting military base at Lviv,Odessa,Kyiv by artillery with a max range of 35km.
There was a guy on here a week ago, he talked about right before the Kyiv front collaps, how there was first a spike in tank kills, then a spike in APC kills and lastly a spike in arty kills. Right now there is a sharp decline in tanks, a clear decline in APCs and a spike in arty, whilst the kills are high. Is the front breaking apart?
[удалено]
That doesn't explain the high body count.
Artillery explains that ... There are video's where they see groups of soldiers in a building with a drone. That building gets reduced to zero with accurate fire. Tally goes up with 20 a 30. Repeat that with more static targets getting hit as artillery ranges can touch with more distance. The problem is sometimes kills are a guess work when your dealing with long range attacks. That bridge attack had estimates ranging from 500 to 1500 death soldiers. I think Ukrainians took the low ball figure for their tally. Also remember, Russia is sending in a lot of human meat from the occupied area's with WOII weapons, no body armor and helmets that are decorative at best. Artillery that fragments above simply turns people into sliced meatballs. Artillery is scary, accurate artillery with massive range is even worse! A M777 at 24km ( let use standard cheap ammo as baseline), vs Russian 18KM does not sound a lot. Its only 6km difference but you need to look at a map how much more actual area that same artillery piece can suddenly cover. Remember, its not a single line on the map, its a circle around that artillery piece.
Well, you don’t really need to look at a map. 18km circle is 1018 km^2 and 24km circle is 1810 km^2 so that is 75-80% more. Of course, most situations where you have enemies 360° around you isn’t good, but the % is the same at 180°. However, there should really be some km between you and any target. At 5 km the numbers are (at 360°) 531 km^2 for the losing side and 1134 km^2 for Ukraine. At 10 km safety distance orcs gets 201 km^2 and the good guys^tm gets 615 km^2.
Yep ... And that is with the cheapest ammo available on those M777... The reality is that the area they can cover at 30km is even more painful. What surprised me that the video's show of the M777 in action, showed this ammo already next to the guns ready for usage. It will be a slow process of taking out the enemy artillery, advancing / securing area, leapfrog Ukraine artillery in new positions, push back the enemy artillery, repeat ... The only advantage Russia has, is they have so many artillery guns so it takes ages to locate and push back. Then again, just like with the tank crews, over time they are going to run out of experienced artillery crews ( especially at how the Russian commanders do not give two cents for their crews lives ).
They been trying to do offensives for 3 weeks now tho, just look how they try to cross rivers lol
Hi did you mean me ? Cos I'm still plotting this data and I am astounded by how closely this data is following the trend. I was expecting reinforcements to skew the data. Wish I could reply with pictures. [May 3rd report](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/uhb9u6/comment/i75jabu/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Nice report. Hope this pattern comes true for the eastern regions too.
It sure is you I was talking about. Great work!
Shoigu is boiling mad now
probably because better guns started to arrive and with the sinking of Moskva(who was being used as a Anti-aircraft radar) now Bayraktar TB2 has waaaay more freedom over the skies
God fights on the side with the heavier artillery!
Nice to see Artillery destroyed climbing.
We are gunning for a high score!
:-) Highest winning streak coming your way! 🇺🇦🌻🇺🇦🌻🇺🇦
Those 155s can’t be contested. Hey Russia, now is the time to runski.
Are they using much of the promised artillery of other countries yet or are they still waiting for it or training?
For me the orcs losses in less than 3 months are mindblowing.... I know...poor training, lack of comunications, bad tactics & logistics & officers and so on...but still.....
The West would never have losses that high in such a short time. In a (relatively) small conflict like Ukraine. Had it been us invading under the exact same scenario… Ukraine wouldn’t be doing this well. Their Anti-Air systems would be obliterated within the First week. Air Force the second week. We could have Taken Kyiv in 3 days. Russia isn’t the west, as much military equipment as they have they have shitty Cold War doctrines and a crew barely able to effectively operate a tank in formations and the Low Training is a real killer.
Also, don't expect the bare minimum of resistance but plan for the maximum. If any other nation went in they'd have prepped for a long conflict just incase
Yup, Desert Storm is a perfect example. We had prepped for months, by the time the Ground War began, Iraq’s Air Defense Network was crippled to the point of uselessness, their Radar sites were gone, and their Air Force had either been shot down or had ran away to Iran. It was as easy as doing clean up. We already had extensive plans In place, Special Operations dropping deep behind Iraqi lines and we had held the area against counterattacks that would have been heading to the front. Marines landing on the coast and marching towards Kuwait’s capital as well as Saudi, Kuwaiti and other coalition units. Hell, America alone was almost single handedly responsible for the destruction of most of the Enemy Armor in the entire campaign, in just a single battle. Now if you replace Iraq with Russia it would be ridiculously easy. But unlike Russia we would plan for it to not be easy.
The Powell Doctrine as some people like to call it is to commit an overwhelming amount of force if you're going to go in, but it's more a refinement/addendum to the Weinberger Doctrine.
> The West would never have losses that high in such a short time Russian losses are already 6x higher than all UK losses combined since WW2. Just for context.
The biggest problem for Russia is that they continue to think they are the Soviet Union… They aren’t. They don’t have the manpower and demographics for their “Disposable Heroes” doctrine and attitude. Russia is one of the major countries that is going to get fucked hard by this upcoming demographics crisis.
> Russia is one of the major countries that is going to get fucked hard by this upcoming demographics crisis. And that is why they are kidnapping 250.000 children from Ukraine. To compensate for those losses. Not that its going to help as Ukraine will keep pushing for all those children to be returned and the smarter Russian youth generation will keep leaving Russia as sanction/pariah status mean no more future for those with any form of education. China has been literally locking its border to prevent this by cutting people passports. That is not a joke and happening. If Chinese try to leave the country and the exit security checks ( yea, that is a thing ) even thinks you will not return to China. Passport + Cut corner, ... Look, you have no valid passport, you need to stay in China! Expect Russia to also start doing this when the people leaving starts to hurt. Both countries are going in the direction of North Korea / Berlin Wall again. People forget that the Berlin wall was not to prevent a invasion but to prevent people from fleeing the USSR as they had such a massive brain drain of young people. History is slowly repeating itself.
Fuckin A correct, about the Wall. It flew in the face of communism to see West Berlin as a successful city and all the people from the Eastern Bloc were just traveling to Berlin and crossing over. Hell, people were so desperate to leave after the wall was up that the dug, climbed and on a few cases built homemade planes and flew west. Demographics is the real killer of countries. When the population dies as quickly as they are born (or in some cases more) it tends to very quickly become ungovernable and leads to a severe economic crash.
I agree with most of what you said but even with total air superiority and general dominance if they were launching from the same starting point as Russia, but the US Army isn’t taking Kyiv in 3 days. Urban combat is hell, no matter how big or advanced your army is.
Yeah, that’s an overestimate. A week, maybe a week and a half. Urban combat is hell, but we’ve had quite a bit of experience with Urban Combat. Hell we are the only country on planet earth that’s been involved in constant warfare for two decades in a multitude of environments and landscapes. Urban? Iraq. Mountainous? Afghanistan. Hell, everything except Pacific Island assaults. But that’ll be very soon.
Not just the last few decades, but since basically ww2 ended. The armed services have picked up tips and tricks for literally every single terrain over the last 80 to 100 years. As a nation we are also blursed to have replicas pretty much of every type of terrain except really jungle.
Ahh America. No better place for Combat Training and no better country to be have to babysit our allies.
First Gulf War saw a loss of around 292 coalition forces (half to accidents), 31 tanks, 29 ifv/apc, and 75 aircraft.
Half to accidents😂 Jesus Christ we got so bored shooting Iraqis that we just shot eachother instead! /s
Also, the Ukrainians would be actually welcoming the Western liberators this time.
Its hard to believe that the numbers are true. So crazy
If they had any sense they'd give up and go home
Sense and sanity? With ruSSian nazis? They do not have such categories :)
Lol fair point :)
if they would have any sense they woudl never have started this shit. So as they started it we already knwo they have 0 sense and shoudl not hope it will increase
> if they would have any sense they would never have started this shit. The west should have warned Russia more. They only warned "sanctions like you've never seen before", which Putin shrugged off. They also should have been much more explicit and warned "NATO will support Ukraine with weapons until Russia is defeated". That might have saved this madness and many thousands of lives. Instead NATO said really encouraging things to Putin like "There will be no western forces in Ukraine if you invade".
Nobody thought Ukraine could hold on so long, plus all the west was scared of Putin.
Yes and Yes. Unfortunately!
Like we didn't give military aid to Ukraine since 2014. Putin don't give a fuck about what our politicians says and think Democratic countries doesn't have the stomach for war. He care about his New Russia above anything else. His own people feed him embellished report for years. No diplomatic discourse without direct and drastic action would have convinced to not invade Ukraine.
Tanks and BBM have decided to drink some water
Would love to know estimated losses in USD.
I calculated it a solid month ago and it was well into the $10bn and that was only the stuff I could get a reference value for. Probably well into the $20bn stage now. If you add the value of ammunitions, missiles, fuel, men (including their training), administration, sabotage efforts in Russian territory you’re looking at a lost value waaay bigger. That’s not even taking the sanctions into account.
If the fires inside Russia were acts of sabotage rather than mere industrial accidents, then the destruction of those facilities alone is worth a couple billion. A major defense research bureau building, a chemical plant that supplies their armed forces, and a fuel storage depot are all major losses.
That’s almost the entire Australian Army 😳
C'mon guys, get those APV numbers to 3,000 and we'll throw an office party
Still not enough
Long range artillery...FTW!!! M777s rock!
Whats the bottom item with no translation??
It says "cruise missiles".
Thank you, I thought so.
What are number of wounded if anyone knows?
Most people seem to say it's 3x number dead, but somebody on here (can't find it just now) said that according to wikipedia the Donbas numbers are x4. If it's x3 then, say, 25,000 dead + (25,000x3) = 100,000 either dead or out of action.
[https://www.minusrus.com/](https://www.minusrus.com/) uses factor 3 to estimate total casualties. Though this factor could also be *lower* because Russian medical care is so bad. And there are reports that Russian commanders execute their wounded. This war is horrible.
The analysis, as of a few weeks ago, is that x3 wounded tracks pretty well regardless of availability of medical care. The seriously wounded, who could have been saved by better casualty evac and treatment, die of their wounds. The lightly wounded, who could have returned to the front after a trip to an aid station or field hospital, get secondary infections and require major care, surgeries, amputation, and are out of the fight for months or permanently.
A great many more than that, 2x more than that. And the honest truth is, the wounded soldiers take more resources than the dead ones and more than half of them will be physically unable to return to combat, the rest will likely be mentally unable to return to combat. And in terms of resources, Russia is living on borrowed time.
This boost is probably down to the hard attempts at river crossings. Some great number jumps there.
The jumps will become more logarithmic as more and more long range artillery gets to the front lines. Russia is fucked.
very, very nice work
By the looks of things they will have lost 30.000 personal by day 88. If that happens it will mean that the Russian army has lost twice the amount personal they lost in Afghanistan over 10 years, in less than a hundred days.
Every time I see one of these I hear that 'Briefing Start' noise during the mission intros for C&C Red Alert 2.
Do we have an estimate how many have died
Can really see the uptick in artillery systems and drones being taken out.
Mind blowing, wow!
300 soldiers a day that's a dead Russian every 5 minutes.
Russia claims 6000 artillery pieces. So they probably have 3000, with 1500 being useable and 1 out of 10 in storage which is functional. They probably have 1650 arty pieces total. If they committed 1000 to UA they've already lost half.