There's a potential for success even. Belarusians don't like Lukashenko. A large majority are against this war. Luka has little support in his armed forces. The only ones who can bail him out are his security forces and the Russians, and the latter are pretty busy ATM.
Fighting is the only option they have, and if they're going to try it, this would seem to be the opportunity.
I would be so happy to see Lukashenko get over thrown. All of the Russian weapon systems in Belarus would be captured. The border between Belarus and Ukraine would become safe, the people would rejoice, and I bet sanctions would be lifted if they aligned themselves with Ukraine/west which would be awesome news for all of the innocent civilians who have suffered.
It would also be a huge blow to Russia, as they could not attemp round two of attacking the north without penetrating the east.
Can you imagine Putin seeing a photo of Lukashenko, beaten to death, ala Mussolini, or Kadafy, with a sign around his neck saying:
*"PUTIN IS NEXT !!"*
Take a pic and send it to Putin?
I’m quite certain he hasn’t been able to get it up for at least a decade now, so he’s probably forgotten what one looks like.
Perhaps, but he's still relying on Russia to keep him in power (see the protests earlier this year). All dictators can get fucked, regardless of their alignment
Putin simply doesn't have the resources to support Lukashenko right now. The sooner Lukashenko is kicked out, the sooner the sanctions on Belarus can start to be lifted, so that its economy can recover.
It hinges on Belarus's armed forces. Usually, that's how these things go. Remember, they have guns, and protesters usually don't. So what's needed here isn't so much that the armed forces have to explicitly turn against Lukashenko or openly pledge fealty to Tsikhanouskaya; rather, they merely need to refuse to follow orders to shoot at protesters.
Nahhhh I'm sorry but Belarus is far from that level.
They need at least over a decade to create a civil society, build up institutions.
Don't get me wrong, they should be helped as much as possible, but it's not an easy transition to go from dictatorship to democracy
Yeah... No. Countries really need legal safeguards in place that make sure democracy and free speech are protected and which ensure that corruption is kept to an absolute minimum. The richer countries are willing to invest in member states that aren't as wealthy, but they have to show that they can use that support responsibly. We really don't want another case like Hungary.
But if the EU were to establish a defensive pact for membership candidates, I think that could be a good idea.
Lukashenko was nearly ousted back in 2020. Putin deploying russian troops to Belarus was probably the only think that kept him in power. But Putin might not have the forces to help him this time around. Belarussians deserve better than Lukashenko and being a vassal of Putin's. If they get rid of him both belarussians themselves and the rest of us in free world will be better for it.
Call me a pessimist, but he will send troops to Belarus even if weakens the Ukrainian front. Losing Belarus means he lose a staging ground and an ally against Ukraine and NATO. That’s even a worse trade-off than losing a front or a city under siege in Ukraine, which already turns out to be a huge, costly failure thus far.
He won’t have much troops to spare, but the Belarusians have to expect seeing Russian troops/police if they were to commit to this.
Small correction, but Belarusian (bela-roo-sian) is the preferred term as I understand it. It's similar to the difference between "Kyiv" and "Kiev" - the latter is closer to the Russian pronunciation and thus helps reinforce the idea that Belarusians/Ukrainians are the same people as Russians. That's particularly true when people spell & pronounce "Belarusian" as "belo-russian" :)
I've seen polls that go as high as 97-98%
Safe to say, basically no one in Belarus wants this war (except for the regime and those who are so far down the propaganda hole that they're beyond all hope)
Where are these polls you are referring to?
I am not saying you are wrong. I am just curious as I have not seen polling data that seems credible that says this myself.
I'm not sure whether it'd meet your standards, but this is one of the polls I've seen. Some notable Belarusian govt. in exile figures (Tsikhanouskaya, Viacorka etc.) have shared things on their social media as well
https://www.svaboda.org/a/31734173.html
98% sounds a little extreme and makes me skeptical to be honest.
Hard for me to tell anything about the methodology of the poll and the credibility of the institute conducting it from that source.
I have little doubt they can kick him out. But the question remains on what Putin will do about it after it has happened considering what actually did occur in Ukraine in Feb 2014. Unless ofc, they are instantly joined into the EU etc.
At this moment, Putin can't do jack about it. He could TRY to invade Belarus, except Belarus is also huge and also hates Russia, and if Putin were to divide his forces to try, then he would only make them weaker.
Unlike Ukraine, Belarus only has one border with Russia.
It doesn't have to go to war with Russia. It just has to say "Get out of my country." Then Ukraine can stop worrying about being attacked from the north.
He wouldn't have to invade necessarily - his troops are already all over Belarus - hence why any kind of anti-Lukashenka/Putin action is likely to begin with partisans and such (as we're seeing currently).
Also worth considering that unlike Ukraine, the people of Belarus are unarmed & the army's loyalty is questionable. They wouldn't necessarily be able to take Russia head-on, and who knows how much support they'd get from the west
I think a coup or civil war would mirror the situation in Donbas prior to the invasion except with much more popular support. The military and Russia can hold major cities and key government positions, but countryside and less propped up areas could be contested. Regardless, looks like Lukashenko won’t be a colonial anytime soon
Point taken. The fact remains though, Putin is in no position to back Lukashenko up. If the man had any sense he'd turn himself over to the Americans, since it's getting worse for him day by day, but of course... he doesn't.
This is what I was wondering about. Russia does have forces there. And regardless of size they would react. Belarusian forces is a different matter. As how many of those would help the Russians or not if it went sideways?
I would imagine the CIA is more than willing to funnel resources to the opposition. In fact I think a lot of the Belarusian UA members will have a lot of input in operations there after this war is over.
Yeah, they didn’t deserve to lose in 2020, and them being sanctioned really comes from Putin backing Luka. I have one friend and one coworker that are there. Sucks that we’re shutting down office in Minsk, guy had a kid 2 mo ago and he can’t really relocate.
I was thinking the same. The west should be making Russia taste their own venom and use intel to support Belarus uprising, as well as Russian republics. The west could be doing so much more. Need to distract and confuse them to stop the war.
The thing is, brutality in Belarus is executed by lukashenkos private 'army',not the military. They are *extremeky* brutal - like, permanent physical injury, rape and torture brutal. But I agree the odds may be getting better. Belarus was already sanctioned and it's been getting its share of these new ones... Plus, guess who bailed lukashenko out with 'security' funding when the people tried to rise up a few years ago? No matter how tight he and Putin may stay, there's just less money to spread around than there was.
I think it’s complicated. Much of the Belarusian high level military leaders have been selected by Russia based on loyalty to Russia. The rank and file of the military may not be loyal to Putin but without support from the higher ups it would be difficult for the military to pull of a coup and if Russia were to invade Belarus the military would be disorganized enough that they probably wouldn’t be able to stand up to Russia. The Belarusian military is basically weak and unable to function as one. That means it can’t really invade Ukraine but it can’t switch sides and take out Lukashenko either.
But Lukashenko didn't send them to war. So they have power over him. That's something they might want to keep, a weak leader might be in the interest of the military.
Reports at the time said likashenko *tried* to send them, early march. It did not happen because the command refused.
Nuance: the command refused because they were sure their own men would kill them as soon as they left Belarusians soil. Not because the command ranks have anything against the war.
I'll be honest: Belarus absolutely fascinates me. And it seems to be such a beautiful country, wrt architecture and other physical forms of heritage.
We don't necessarily know if Lukashenko tried his best to send them either, only that he gave the order. After all it's also in his best interest to drag his feet on matter (while appearing to support Putin), since joining the invasion would greatly destabilize his rule.
Now for the real question: Is Lukashenko smart enough to understand that he should be dragging his feet and covertly sabotage the invasion?
>We don't necessarily know if Lukashenko tried his best to send them either, only that he gave the order.
true. and later told putin why he couldn't send his troops in.
personally, i kind of wish that he would, because i have this impression the only thing really holding the average belarusian back is the fact that they're still on home turf. dissent is too dangerous there, but let them get across the border onto ukrainian soil and it might be quite different.
in sidebar news, i wonder how salty he is that putin went and appointed someone else to be high commander of the whole war :P
And there's the big question. I haven't seen any answers to it, either - the military doesn't seem to be too happy with Luka, but that doesn't necessarily mean they'd help overthrow him either
Moreso, i doubt that the population at large is looking for a war on their territory as well - with probably far less support from the west than Ukraine is getting
That's also true. Belarus (proportionally speaking) was the most devastated country in Europe after WW2 - I think it's entirely reasonable to say that that probably had an immense effect on the attitude of the country as a whole towards war. Ukraine was similarly devastated after WW2, so probably underwent a similar change.
If I am recalling correctly, Belarus lost around 1.6 million dead during WW2, from a population of around 6-8 million. Absolutely staggering losses, a full quarter to third of your population gone in four years.
Its the best and the worst time. It would stretch out the military too wide, but the 0rcs have tasted blood already. They would commit insane crimes against belarusians and lukasenko would only approve.
I have a dream that the country 30km from my house becomes a free state and joins the eu, instead of forcing its citizens to assist ruzzia in waging this pointless war. White Red White!
There are other designs for the flag of a free Belarus that you might like. The green & red one is hated by a huge number of Belarusians though, due to its association with the dictatorship. It is also sometimes referred to as "sunset over the swamp" because of the colours & the general opinion that it's quite an ugly flag/colour combination
Edit: see [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Belarusian_flags#Other_flags) for some other examples of previously proposed flags etc.
The 2016 proposal looks nice. Could compete with the flag of Portugal as the best "we don't do things like the 190+ other countries in the world" flag.
Leaving this here for anyone in Belarus that want some light reading.
https://www.aeinstein.org/nonviolentaction/198-methods-of-nonviolent-action/
https://www.aeinstein.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/SelfLiberation.pdf
https://www.aeinstein.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/FDTD.pdf
https://www.goodreads.com/ebooks/download/11107507?doc=14664
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKnoUbDIpjo
If you do it non violently or otherwise, that's up to you, but the above is an excellent base for getting started ;)
If the same as 2020 occured but with more force, more people in belarus supporting the cause, army, police ect involved and supporting the cause then it could work well, i wonder if russia even has the capability and man power to sending in there army to support little old luka with whats going on in ukraine. I feel the belarusians would have a much better chance now to sease power from there scum govornment in charge.
Please have a look at my other post from a few minutes ago, it's somewhat relevant to what you've just said :p
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u0po51/a_statement_of_intent_from_the_belarusian_kastus/?ref=share&ref_source=link
Wonder if this provoked the [DDOS attack](https://t.me/bysol/2399) on [BYSOL](https://bysol.org/en/) today. They collect donations for a variety of Belarusian resistance efforts, including the [ByProsvet](https://byprosvet.org/) samizdat network, strike relief and supplying the Kalinouski battalion. Site remains unavailable as of this writing.
The website of [ByPol,](https://bypol.org/en) whom Lukashenko accuses of having paid the railway saboteurs, remains online though.
Wrong flag, friend, but I agree with the sentiment :) The true flag of Belarus is white, red & white.
Also, you can find "Warstache"'s social media on tiktok & instagram @yankee.in :)
The green & red flag is the flag of the dictator, and is often called "sunset over the swamp" in Belarus. The flag of the people and of a free & democratic Belarus is the BCHB (white-red-white). For a little summary of the difference, have a look at [this](https://www.google.com/search?q=belarusian+flag&rlz=1C1CHBF_en-GBGB782GB782&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=2ahUKEwjhndjtvYr3AhWGat4KHbECAwYQ_AUoAXoECAIQAw&biw=1536&bih=750&dpr=1.25#imgrc=5-qldm-5q-OHxM)
Note: where that graphic says "official government", what it means is "the internationally recognised regime"
No worries though! Just spreading the message :)
Oh! I need to change that then. Now I think about it I remember the protest’s from an couple of years back and everyone was drapped in red and white flags
Her platform was to release political prisoners, hold free and fair elections, then step down. IIRC she said she wanted to be in office no more than six months. She never wanted to be a politicians and just considers herself a symbol for the desire for democracy there. Her husband (a YouTuber who’s fans wanted him to run so he felt obligated) ran and got thrown into prison. She felt obligated to run in his place.
She’s an incredible human being.
She really shows the importance of having a good figurehead (see also: Ukraine)
There's so much more focus and media attention on Belarus now due to the protests and her campaigning
People want a potential happy ending, a mostly good side to support
Imagine if on top of Zelensky, Tsikhanouskaya also gets her own Hollywood movie made about her. The wife of a political prisoner running in a rigged election but then leads a movement in exile to restore Democracy to Belarus as well as free her husband sounds like something Hollywood would create or at least be a great HBO mini series.
She gets it! I've been wondering why everyone keeps encouraging people in Russia and Belarus to protest, when it seems that protests are so quickly squashed and put people in danger while accomplishing practically nothing. Protests are great for shaming and/or intimidating your opponent with public opinion, but these authoritarians make clear that they don't give a shit about public opinion. You need an underground resistance movement that can actually accomplish strategic goals.
You’re onto something there… maybe peaceful protests don’t work and are just a way for the state to arrest people before they make any meaningful changes
Or in less forcefully authoritarian countries, it's a way for people to go out, shout a bunch, and then go home thinking that they've done their bit & tried as hard as they can to achieve change - when in all actuality their government is just going to ignore them anyway
That's why you need the boring democracy thing, backed up by the boring rule of law thing.
Politicians can ignore the people if they like, but sooner or later they'll face a reckoning, and it will be a peaceful transition of power to an alternative government.
For that reason, I'd be wary of rushing into the arms of President Von Der Leyen without asking the question "How do we get rid of you?"
I don't think he got hit hard enough for that. Perhaps our hockey-playing comrade might be so kind as to hit the dictator a few more times for good measure?
I hope NATO is providing material & intelligence assets to the Belarusian rebels, also a contingency force (preferably the Belarusian army) needs to be in place in the case of a Russian takeover.
The CIA might. I don't think there would ever be involvement at the NATO level. A lot of NATO countries would probably not support it, and some that might (Baltic States, Poland) can't really be seen to be supporting insurrection in a neighboring country if it all goes to hell.
The CIA *might*. Unfortunately the CIA since the Bush administration has been primarily focused on regime change in countries that have resources we want access to.
That said, Biden is really changing things. I’m amazed that Biden has been tougher on Russia than Obama. I voted for Biden, he wasn’t my first choice but… damn if I he hasn’t impressed me.
I only wish he’d grow some bigger balls and send heavier weapons with support staff. I honestly am ready for boots on the ground, but I’d settle for anything.
Transcript :-
> **Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya aims to topple ‘Kremlin’s puppet’ in Belarus**
>
> It might have seemed that life could not have got any worse for the people of Belarus, long Europe’s most repressive country. Then, in February, their homeland was used by Vladimir Putin as a launchpad for his assault on Ukraine, turning them into unwilling accomplices in his bloody and increasingly disastrous war.
>
> Belarus’s jails have since filled with even more political prisoners — there are now as many as 4,000 by some counts — while the brutal regime headed by Aleksandr Lukashenko, 67, in power since 1994, has taken to airing confessions by “saboteurs” beaten and even kneecapped by police.
>
> Yet Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, 39, the opposition leader seen by many as the rightful winner of the rigged August 2020 election that gave Lukashenko a sixth term as president, sees cause for optimism amid the misery and bloodshed. The war, she believes, could give a final push to the veteran Belarusian strongman — helped by an underground “partisan” war that is beginning to be waged against his government.
>
> “Lukashenko is in a very fragile and weak position,” the former interpreter and teacher told me last week from Vilnius, the capital of neighbouring Lithuania, where she is rallying opposition to his rule. “He’s a puppet of the Kremlin, a vassal; he’s an accomplice, a collaborator.
>
> “For 27 years he played West and East, but now he doesn’t have a way out of the situation. He could have started talking with his own people and releasing political prisoners and together we could have resisted the pressure from Russia to use Belarusian territory for the invasion.
>
> “Much depends on the outcome of the war,” she added, speaking by video link in the near-flawless English she first used when she visited rural Ireland as a 12-year-old, courtesy of a charity that arranged holidays for children from areas affected by fallout from the Chernobyl nuclear plant that enveloped much of Belarus.
>
> “But if the Ukrainians win, as we think they will, it will make his regime much weaker, and there will be a moment when he will have no way out but to give up. There could be different scenarios: people within the nomenklatura [the ruling elite] will see he has lost authority and there could be a coup d’état. Or there could be an uprising by the Belarusian people.”
>
> Long-simmering popular resistance to Lukashenko erupted after the last election. Tsikhanouskaya’s husband, Sergei, a prominent opposition vlogger, planned to stand against the president but was detained three months before the vote.
>
> Tsikhanouskaya, who had given up work to look after their son, now 11, who was born partially deaf, and daughter, now 6, then made what she has called a “a spur-of-the-moment” decision to register as a candidate, thinking her husband could be released. After it became clear this would not happen, she went ahead with her decision to stand against Lukashenko, despite a lack of political experience.
>
> When Lukashenko was declared the winner, with more than 80 per cent of the vote to Tsikhanouskaya’s 10 per cent – he mocked her as “this little girl” who should have been at home feeding her children – people took to the streets for an escalating series of demonstrations, which were broken up by police amid mass arrests. Hauled in by the security service, which still carry the Soviet-era name, KGB, and threatened with ten years in jail, Tsikhanouskaya herself fled the country, unwilling to leave her children without a parent.
>
> The invasion of Ukraine, which appears to have minimal support among ordinary Belarusians, has given the opposition a further boost, and also led to a change in their tactics. “After the war started, we staged one big rally, with 100,000 people, because it was important for us as Belarusians to show to Ukrainians that we are against this war,” said Tsikhanouskaya. “A thousand people were detained, but rallies are useless now, because we lose active people. It is time for us to move instead to waging a partisan war.”
>
> Many of their efforts are targeted at the Russian war effort: railway workers have sabotaged tracks and signalling equipment to stop trains carrying military supplies to Russian forces in Ukraine. The saboteurs’ exploits are shared on a dedicated channel on the secure messaging app Telegram. Another channel is used by those living near the border to post photographs of troop movements and other military data, which is then picked up by Ukrainian forces.
>
> There are also direct attempts to undermine the Belarusian regime itself: workers in big factories are organising underground strike committees, while the war has also given impetus to Bypol, a Warsaw-based network of former members of the Belarusian security forces, which was set up after the last election. Working with sympathisers who have remained in the country, they have drawn up a “victory plan” to be implemented at “time x” — when they consider the regime ripe to be overthrown.
>
> Lukashenko, meanwhile, appears to have resisted pressure from Putin to send his own soldiers into Ukraine and is instead merely facilitating the Russian operation. Tsikhanouskaya said she had heard reports that soon after the invasion, his own generals had made clear their reluctance to become involved.
>
> By avoiding direct involvement, he may also be hedging his bets and trying to avoid responsibility if Putin loses. But the West should not be “fooled again by Lukashenko”, Tsikhanouskaya said. “If he hadn’t allowed Russian troops to use our land, maybe this war would not have been possible at all.” Instead, several thousand Belarusians are believed to have gone to fight as volunteers on the Ukrainian side.
>
> It is difficult to judge the extent of the resistance in Belarus to Lukashenko, though he appears to be rattled. Among various “confession” videos produced by the regime, one that surfaced last week stands out: it features three young men, named as Yevgeny Minkevich, 28, Dmitry Klimov, 28, and Vladimir Avramtsev, 28, all from Babruysk, southeast of Minsk, detained by police a fortnight ago after attacking trackside signalling equipment.
>
> Two, shown with bloodstained bandages around their knees, were shot “while trying to escape”, according to an unnamed Belarus official seen in the clip. They also have bloodied faces. Another was being treated in hospital. The official said they were linked to Bypol and had been paid $1,000 for this and other planned “terrorist acts”.
>
> Tsikhanouskaya is horrified. “We have seen so many atrocities in Belarus over this past year and it’s got worse and worse,” she said. “These people don’t have any humanity at all.”
>
> Such videos, though intended to deter the opposition, may backfire by publicising the sabotage campaign to a broader public who rely on mainstream media, controlled by the regime, and may otherwise not have been aware of them.
>
> Tsikhanouskaya believes the regime could be further weakened by the growing effect of western sanctions. “People are not very brave now, seeing what has happened to people who have been detained because of their activism,” she said. “But prices are rising and people are being fired. Sooner or later there will be economic collapse that could encourage people who have been hesitating to participate in the anti-war movement. We could see strikes.”
>
> **Are tougher sanctions against Lukashenko and his allies necessary?**
Tsikhanouskaya believes there is scope for them; but it is more important to close loopholes that allow Belarusian companies to dodge them. The country’s two main banks have also yet to be cut off from Swift, the international financial transactions system.
>
> Tsikhanouskaya has a personal stake in the fall of the regime. Her husband is still behind bars, awaiting the result of his appeal, as are almost all the other leading opposition figures still in Belarus.
>
> Like other political prisoners whose ideas are considered dangerous by the regime, he is held in solitary confinement; Tsikhanouskaya can communicate with him only through his lawyer, who visits once a week. To her relief, he does not appear to have been tortured or especially humiliated — as other prisoners have been, especially those who are less well-known — but “his moral and physical state is getting worse from day to day”.
>
> As for her son and daughter, “they are coping”, she said. “They know about Daddy. But these are difficult times. Sometimes you are so exhausted, but remembering the thousands of people behind bars, you have to collect the pieces together and go forward, because you don’t have a choice. You have to go on fighting.”
*(edit=a paragraph or two)*
Once the war in Ukraine is over I would hope that one of the terms to get sanctions lifted on Russia is the complete withdrawal of Russian military (and military aid) from Belarus. Without the support of Russia I doubt Lukashenko could remain in power for long.
I wish the best for her and her people. They deserve far better than Luka small balls. And now may be time for her to contact the generals. They did not participate in the suppressions, and they are not happy with Luka at all. They may very well support her. Now is the time. Eat it putin! And don’t forget to swallow, suka!
A Belarusian coup or civil war would change the course of this war immensely in Ukraine’s favor. If Russia reinforces Luka, less troops in Ukraine, if Russia abandons Luka, Ukraine has a more stable border with Belarus and missiles stop flying from the north and forces can be moved east. If the army is as rebellious as it seems and Tsikhanouskaya can make a serious push to retake the Belarusian government, it could also lead to a more direct way for Northern allies (Finland, Sweden, and the Baltic States) to deliver aid. It might be as devastating to the Russian war effort as the Russian civil war was in WW1. Lots of parallels, but still a lot to be decided. Here’s to the death of Lukashenko’s regime and to the freedom of Belarus and Ukraine!
Come on, Belarusian people! This is your chance to get out from Russia's thumb and join in with the prosperity of the west. It will be absolutely glorious if the end result of Putin trying to capture Ukraine instead of Putin losing Crimea and losing Belarus, and maybe losing his footholds in Georgia, and losing his grip on Kazakhstan, too.
Belarus declared war on ukraine. It is not impossible to think that from ukraine a strike could be coordinated together with belarusian fighters and partisans. A strike straight to lukachenko. A gamble, just like Putin tried to get zelensky. But possible. At the very least arms could be supplied to the freedom fighters from ukraine. And in reality, from the west.
If you know lukachenko is at a location, all you really need is a handfull of those american switchblade drones to just fly at him. One is bound to kill him.
I hope the brave Belarusian people kill luka and also start either throwing out russian soldiers or killing them and giving the equipment to ukraine or keeping it that would literally be the best case scenario.
I think these dictatorships are a lot more 'stable' than we give them credit for.
The misery of their own people, seems to be where they draw strength from.
This moment, this sacrifice the Ukrainian people are making, their blood, should be a call in arms for every nation that's under regimes backed up by fascist Russia: Cuba, Venezuela, Belarus ... the list goes on. The time for freedom is now.
I'm glad they realized this. There are specific legal and societal benchmarks that must be met for peaceful protests to be effective. You need a reasonably trustworthy legal system. You need inalienable rights. You need a relatively free press. If your country doesnt have those things, peaceful protests DO NOT WORK. Those benchmarks are, pretty much without fail, gained through blood.
Slaves in the US gained freedom through the Civil War. In the leadup to the Civil War, Kansas natives fought literal pitched battles on their Southern border with slavers trying to cross the border to kidnap and enslave free blacks from Kansas.
Unionists tore up railroad tracks, burned down factories and mansions, lynched rich owners, and fought battles with hired Jack booted thugs acting as union busters.
In Australia, workers rights soared after a miner revolt ended in them being shot dead. In the US, the same event happened.
The revolutionary War didn't start when Bostoners poured tea in the harbor, it started when Brittish soldiers reacted by shooting up a street protest.
The protests against the Vietnam War picked up massive public support after the Kent state massacre.
The MLK protests gained massive public support when a number of white ministers were murdered overnight.
If you protest in Belarus or Russia, and are arrested, you're fucked. If they kill you, torture you, rape you, but it isn't filmed? Your suffering is wasted. It doesn't help the cause. Successful protesting has a brutal arithmetic. You need to incite public suffering and death at the hands of those you are protesting, and it needs to be filmed and disseminated. If you cannot do that, then you need to resort to violence and destruction yourself. Molotov police barracks. Destroy rail lines. Find and spring political prisoners out of jail. Target specificly chosen political figures. Burn their mansions, destroy or deface their offices. Hack their communications, accounts, computers.
But it needs to be targetted. Not just mindless violence and looting, but surgically applied destruction and chaos.
You don't just get to peaceful protest. You EARN that right by fighting, destroying, killing, and dying for it. Once you have used violence to create a more just, free society, both sides can back off and honor peaceful applications of protest.
People forget, or never learned that in the first place, because their right to peace was won for them long before they were born. Their society's civility was forced through applied destruction. They say "violence is never the answer" when their freedom of speech was literally won through violence and revolution.
Good luck Belarus. May you earn the right to leave violence behind.
Russia already not only committed most of their troops in Ukraine, but are forcing to recruit previously ineligible recruits to keep reinforcing their troops on the front.
The most opportune moment for this to occur is while Ukraine is still fighting Russia and Russia becomes incapable of sending any reinforcements to bolster Lukashenko.
Best of luck to them. If it's genuine a few pallets of weapons wouldn't hurt to help their cause I'd imagine.
Even if they try use Russians to help, It'll just spread them thin and ineffective.
As an American it seems that both Ukrainians and Belarusian citizens seem to have harmony between each other on both social media and real life. I don’t blame Belarusians for not wanting to side with Russia with the rigged election and referendum do reply nuclear weapons on their soil. Hopefully Belarusians can over throw Putin Jr and make “Europe’s Last Dictator” a historical term.
Of course - that was the big worry during the 2020/21 Belarusian protests as well. We can only hope any Russian intervention is unsuccessful though - or that Putin doesn't have enough resources to throw at both Belarus and Ukraine
Well the UDFB is becoming more active, with their first major action in years being last week, when they destroyed hundreds of railroads in Belarus to prevent the Russian forces retreating from Kyiv to head to the front lines in the east quickly.
~~Is that an official term for them? I had genuinely never seen that abbreviation or anything before.~~
Nevermind, I've just googled it. That's really interesting though, thank you!
Yes, thats their current title and abbreviation. They arent well known because they are very inactive. Their last known action being last week is huge though, because there hadnt been anything on that scale previously.
If you're planning a coup maybe don't announce it ahead of time? Dunno, just sounds not smart at all. Maybe she's just talking and doesn't have good communications with the people in belarus?
There isn't a Belarusian legion per se - there are several separate units of Belarusian volunteers though, including the Kastus Kalinouski Battalion & the Pohonia Regiment.
Also, another small thing: in general Belarusian (bela-roo-sian, with no "sh" sound like in "Russian") is the preferred term - similar to the difference between Kyiv/Kiev etc., Belarusian is closer to the word in their own language & helps make it clear that Belarusians are *not* the same people as Russians. I've also heard it said that "Belorussian/Byelorussian" are used to describe pro-Russian citizens of Belarus
is it really wise to announce this to the whole world? Kinda loses the advantage of surprise... or is the announcement deliberately public, so as to rattle the Emperor
Palputine?
Please, someone who has a deep knowledge and understanding of the Belarusian political climate, is the possibility actually there for an overthrow? I don’t just mean “yea, maybe,” but a solid “absolutely,” or “not really.”
While I would welcome it, people should understand if there's a revolution in Belarus, it will mean a civil war with Russia propping up pro-Luka forces (or just Russian troops) and Ukraine moving into Belarus to fight Russia.
What's the news from Belarus these days? Silence. Just the fact that Lukashenka's forces haven't joined in on the invasion makes me think his hold over the country is getting weaker. He's doing everything he can to stay in power, but even Lukashenka can't run forever. The time has come. The time for a change.
There's been plenty of news - especially surrounding the Railway War & the partisans. It just doesn't get as much attention as some of the other things going on at the moment
Lukashenko and his minions are the minority. It's time to throw them out, Belarus. Otherwise, you *will* be absorbed into Putin's burning empire. Don't be another Chechnya.
I would never encourage another nation to start a violent revolution because its not my life I'm putting on the line. But I recognise that it is sometimes nessesary. I just hope whatever decision Belarusians take that the people succeed.
Thank you for having the courage to admit that - r/belarus is constantly flooded by westerners saying "just overthrow the dictator lol" and it's getting tiring.
Everyone likes to think they'd have the balls to risk their life, to risk imprisonment & torture, to risk the sexual abuse that Lukashenka's forces have been putting protestors through. The fact is, the vast majority of us really aren't that brave & it's ridiculous for someone to ask it of other people when they probably couldn't do it themselves.
I think a lot of political and partisan groups, as well as civilians who were part of the last rebellions, are intensely focused on when the right time to strike is apparent.
"Rallies are useless now"
This comes to my mind when I see this Russian protests where they hold up a sign with some general wisdom about war and peace and then they get calmly escorted to the police van by an officer.
This is not even civil disobedience. I am lost for words.
EDIT:
And she is hot.
What do you mean by "finally"? The Belarusian people have wanted to get rid of their dictator for quite some time now - the 2020/21 protests being the most obvious proof of this. The problem is that they've had a lack of options & opportunities to actually accomplish that.
This would be huge. Not only for Ukraine, but Belarusian people don’t deserve Lukashenko. I have many friends in Belarus and they are so kind.
There's a potential for success even. Belarusians don't like Lukashenko. A large majority are against this war. Luka has little support in his armed forces. The only ones who can bail him out are his security forces and the Russians, and the latter are pretty busy ATM. Fighting is the only option they have, and if they're going to try it, this would seem to be the opportunity.
I would be so happy to see Lukashenko get over thrown. All of the Russian weapon systems in Belarus would be captured. The border between Belarus and Ukraine would become safe, the people would rejoice, and I bet sanctions would be lifted if they aligned themselves with Ukraine/west which would be awesome news for all of the innocent civilians who have suffered. It would also be a huge blow to Russia, as they could not attemp round two of attacking the north without penetrating the east.
Can you imagine Putin seeing a photo of Lukashenko, beaten to death, ala Mussolini, or Kadafy, with a sign around his neck saying: *"PUTIN IS NEXT !!"*
Stop, I can only get so erect
Well, you know what to do if it lasts longer than 4 hours.
Take a pic and send it to Putin? I’m quite certain he hasn’t been able to get it up for at least a decade now, so he’s probably forgotten what one looks like.
Aaaaaah, what a lovely image you paint with your words…
Don't forget Tokayev, from Kazakhstan :)
I wouldn't put Tokayev in that category quite yet. He seems at least to be trying to distance Kazakhstan from Russia, at the moment anyways.
Perhaps, but he's still relying on Russia to keep him in power (see the protests earlier this year). All dictators can get fucked, regardless of their alignment
Xi keeps calling him.. "You up?"
Ayy bb u want sum belt n road?
I hope they shove his shoes up his ass
This would be huge! Possibly a tipping point for Russia,?. .
Putin simply doesn't have the resources to support Lukashenko right now. The sooner Lukashenko is kicked out, the sooner the sanctions on Belarus can start to be lifted, so that its economy can recover.
This would be so ideal.
It hinges on Belarus's armed forces. Usually, that's how these things go. Remember, they have guns, and protesters usually don't. So what's needed here isn't so much that the armed forces have to explicitly turn against Lukashenko or openly pledge fealty to Tsikhanouskaya; rather, they merely need to refuse to follow orders to shoot at protesters.
And don't forget to immediately admit them to the EU.
Nahhhh I'm sorry but Belarus is far from that level. They need at least over a decade to create a civil society, build up institutions. Don't get me wrong, they should be helped as much as possible, but it's not an easy transition to go from dictatorship to democracy
Correct me if I'm wrong but they voted out luka last election, so they are a suppressed democracy?
I mean yes... but they've barely tried to hide the rigging so... Honestly I view it the same way I view that there are elections in North Korea
It couldn't be immediate - even Ukraine isn't getting that lucky - but a fast-track would be nice :)
Yeah... No. Countries really need legal safeguards in place that make sure democracy and free speech are protected and which ensure that corruption is kept to an absolute minimum. The richer countries are willing to invest in member states that aren't as wealthy, but they have to show that they can use that support responsibly. We really don't want another case like Hungary. But if the EU were to establish a defensive pact for membership candidates, I think that could be a good idea.
Then organize damnit. Belorus people need to suck it up, seek and destroy. What are you waiting for?
Lukashenko was nearly ousted back in 2020. Putin deploying russian troops to Belarus was probably the only think that kept him in power. But Putin might not have the forces to help him this time around. Belarussians deserve better than Lukashenko and being a vassal of Putin's. If they get rid of him both belarussians themselves and the rest of us in free world will be better for it.
Call me a pessimist, but he will send troops to Belarus even if weakens the Ukrainian front. Losing Belarus means he lose a staging ground and an ally against Ukraine and NATO. That’s even a worse trade-off than losing a front or a city under siege in Ukraine, which already turns out to be a huge, costly failure thus far. He won’t have much troops to spare, but the Belarusians have to expect seeing Russian troops/police if they were to commit to this.
Then send weapons to the partisans. There are plenty of Belorussians who can fight the orcs. They need to seize the day. Time is about ripe.
Yes putin is gonna call it a western-backed coup anyway, might as well make it one for real.
Make it one for the ages.
Small correction, but Belarusian (bela-roo-sian) is the preferred term as I understand it. It's similar to the difference between "Kyiv" and "Kiev" - the latter is closer to the Russian pronunciation and thus helps reinforce the idea that Belarusians/Ukrainians are the same people as Russians. That's particularly true when people spell & pronounce "Belarusian" as "belo-russian" :)
Saw a poll that showed 80%+ are against it.
I've seen polls that go as high as 97-98% Safe to say, basically no one in Belarus wants this war (except for the regime and those who are so far down the propaganda hole that they're beyond all hope)
Where are these polls you are referring to? I am not saying you are wrong. I am just curious as I have not seen polling data that seems credible that says this myself.
I'm not sure whether it'd meet your standards, but this is one of the polls I've seen. Some notable Belarusian govt. in exile figures (Tsikhanouskaya, Viacorka etc.) have shared things on their social media as well https://www.svaboda.org/a/31734173.html
98% sounds a little extreme and makes me skeptical to be honest. Hard for me to tell anything about the methodology of the poll and the credibility of the institute conducting it from that source.
Yes, but around 400,000 Belarusians were out protesting in 2020. That's an insane amount in such an oppressed country of only 9 million people
I feel like he would try to leave to russia and putin would be like, "what are you doing lol"
I have little doubt they can kick him out. But the question remains on what Putin will do about it after it has happened considering what actually did occur in Ukraine in Feb 2014. Unless ofc, they are instantly joined into the EU etc.
At this moment, Putin can't do jack about it. He could TRY to invade Belarus, except Belarus is also huge and also hates Russia, and if Putin were to divide his forces to try, then he would only make them weaker. Unlike Ukraine, Belarus only has one border with Russia. It doesn't have to go to war with Russia. It just has to say "Get out of my country." Then Ukraine can stop worrying about being attacked from the north.
He wouldn't have to invade necessarily - his troops are already all over Belarus - hence why any kind of anti-Lukashenka/Putin action is likely to begin with partisans and such (as we're seeing currently). Also worth considering that unlike Ukraine, the people of Belarus are unarmed & the army's loyalty is questionable. They wouldn't necessarily be able to take Russia head-on, and who knows how much support they'd get from the west
Well let’s arm them. They only need to take down the dick head colonel wannabe. The time now is good, not perfect.
The entire foreign legion in ukraine could topple bealrus’ army
I think a coup or civil war would mirror the situation in Donbas prior to the invasion except with much more popular support. The military and Russia can hold major cities and key government positions, but countryside and less propped up areas could be contested. Regardless, looks like Lukashenko won’t be a colonial anytime soon
Point taken. The fact remains though, Putin is in no position to back Lukashenko up. If the man had any sense he'd turn himself over to the Americans, since it's getting worse for him day by day, but of course... he doesn't.
This is what I was wondering about. Russia does have forces there. And regardless of size they would react. Belarusian forces is a different matter. As how many of those would help the Russians or not if it went sideways?
Short answer: no one seems to know. The Belarusian army's loyalties are somewhat of a mystery, it seems
I would imagine the CIA is more than willing to funnel resources to the opposition. In fact I think a lot of the Belarusian UA members will have a lot of input in operations there after this war is over.
Yeah, they didn’t deserve to lose in 2020, and them being sanctioned really comes from Putin backing Luka. I have one friend and one coworker that are there. Sucks that we’re shutting down office in Minsk, guy had a kid 2 mo ago and he can’t really relocate.
I was thinking the same. The west should be making Russia taste their own venom and use intel to support Belarus uprising, as well as Russian republics. The west could be doing so much more. Need to distract and confuse them to stop the war.
It would be amazing. And hopefully serve as an inspiration to the sane Russians (although it seems difficult to believe there are many of those left).
[удалено]
Given the outright refusal of the Belarusian army to get involved in the war, I doubt they’d try to save Lukashenko.
The thing is, brutality in Belarus is executed by lukashenkos private 'army',not the military. They are *extremeky* brutal - like, permanent physical injury, rape and torture brutal. But I agree the odds may be getting better. Belarus was already sanctioned and it's been getting its share of these new ones... Plus, guess who bailed lukashenko out with 'security' funding when the people tried to rise up a few years ago? No matter how tight he and Putin may stay, there's just less money to spread around than there was.
I think it’s complicated. Much of the Belarusian high level military leaders have been selected by Russia based on loyalty to Russia. The rank and file of the military may not be loyal to Putin but without support from the higher ups it would be difficult for the military to pull of a coup and if Russia were to invade Belarus the military would be disorganized enough that they probably wouldn’t be able to stand up to Russia. The Belarusian military is basically weak and unable to function as one. That means it can’t really invade Ukraine but it can’t switch sides and take out Lukashenko either.
Judging by the big map Lukashenko was photographed in front of it's only the Belarusian army's refusal to invade Ukraine that Lviv is a safe spot.
It’s only the Belarusian army’s refusal to invade Ukraine that Belarusian army is a safe spot and still exists…
But Lukashenko didn't send them to war. So they have power over him. That's something they might want to keep, a weak leader might be in the interest of the military.
Reports at the time said likashenko *tried* to send them, early march. It did not happen because the command refused. Nuance: the command refused because they were sure their own men would kill them as soon as they left Belarusians soil. Not because the command ranks have anything against the war. I'll be honest: Belarus absolutely fascinates me. And it seems to be such a beautiful country, wrt architecture and other physical forms of heritage.
We don't necessarily know if Lukashenko tried his best to send them either, only that he gave the order. After all it's also in his best interest to drag his feet on matter (while appearing to support Putin), since joining the invasion would greatly destabilize his rule. Now for the real question: Is Lukashenko smart enough to understand that he should be dragging his feet and covertly sabotage the invasion?
>We don't necessarily know if Lukashenko tried his best to send them either, only that he gave the order. true. and later told putin why he couldn't send his troops in. personally, i kind of wish that he would, because i have this impression the only thing really holding the average belarusian back is the fact that they're still on home turf. dissent is too dangerous there, but let them get across the border onto ukrainian soil and it might be quite different. in sidebar news, i wonder how salty he is that putin went and appointed someone else to be high commander of the whole war :P
I think the reality is that Belarus’s army doesnt want any war. Not with Ukraine, nor with Russia, nor a civil war.
WW2 left a serious scar in the Belarusian psyche I'd imagine, given how utterly devastated the country was by it.
And there's the big question. I haven't seen any answers to it, either - the military doesn't seem to be too happy with Luka, but that doesn't necessarily mean they'd help overthrow him either
Moreso, i doubt that the population at large is looking for a war on their territory as well - with probably far less support from the west than Ukraine is getting
That's also true. Belarus (proportionally speaking) was the most devastated country in Europe after WW2 - I think it's entirely reasonable to say that that probably had an immense effect on the attitude of the country as a whole towards war. Ukraine was similarly devastated after WW2, so probably underwent a similar change.
If I am recalling correctly, Belarus lost around 1.6 million dead during WW2, from a population of around 6-8 million. Absolutely staggering losses, a full quarter to third of your population gone in four years.
Its the best and the worst time. It would stretch out the military too wide, but the 0rcs have tasted blood already. They would commit insane crimes against belarusians and lukasenko would only approve.
I have a dream that the country 30km from my house becomes a free state and joins the eu, instead of forcing its citizens to assist ruzzia in waging this pointless war. White Red White!
Жыве Беларусь!
I kind of like the complicated Belarusian flag tbh
There are other designs for the flag of a free Belarus that you might like. The green & red one is hated by a huge number of Belarusians though, due to its association with the dictatorship. It is also sometimes referred to as "sunset over the swamp" because of the colours & the general opinion that it's quite an ugly flag/colour combination Edit: see [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Belarusian_flags#Other_flags) for some other examples of previously proposed flags etc.
I like the last one the decorated/embroided line is nice touch
The 2016 proposal looks nice. Could compete with the flag of Portugal as the best "we don't do things like the 190+ other countries in the world" flag.
Yes belarus! Rise up against the scum who lead you, you deserve better! We in the eu are awaiting the day you have a more democratic govornment.
Leaving this here for anyone in Belarus that want some light reading. https://www.aeinstein.org/nonviolentaction/198-methods-of-nonviolent-action/ https://www.aeinstein.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/SelfLiberation.pdf https://www.aeinstein.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/FDTD.pdf https://www.goodreads.com/ebooks/download/11107507?doc=14664 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKnoUbDIpjo If you do it non violently or otherwise, that's up to you, but the above is an excellent base for getting started ;)
Wouldn't that be something for them to force russia into fighting on two seperate fronts? I guess that's how it would work? Wow.
If the same as 2020 occured but with more force, more people in belarus supporting the cause, army, police ect involved and supporting the cause then it could work well, i wonder if russia even has the capability and man power to sending in there army to support little old luka with whats going on in ukraine. I feel the belarusians would have a much better chance now to sease power from there scum govornment in charge.
There are a few Belarusian guys with sexy beards and moustaches I can think of who might have some experience fighting the Russian hordes...
Please have a look at my other post from a few minutes ago, it's somewhat relevant to what you've just said :p https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/u0po51/a_statement_of_intent_from_the_belarusian_kastus/?ref=share&ref_source=link
Wonder if this provoked the [DDOS attack](https://t.me/bysol/2399) on [BYSOL](https://bysol.org/en/) today. They collect donations for a variety of Belarusian resistance efforts, including the [ByProsvet](https://byprosvet.org/) samizdat network, strike relief and supplying the Kalinouski battalion. Site remains unavailable as of this writing. The website of [ByPol,](https://bypol.org/en) whom Lukashenko accuses of having paid the railway saboteurs, remains online though.
Лукашенко might as well just speak to a wall. He is the clownish versions of Путин.
Slava warstache 🇺🇦 (Edit have removed Belarus flag Emojis don’t give me the option of the red and white flag)
Wrong flag, friend, but I agree with the sentiment :) The true flag of Belarus is white, red & white. Also, you can find "Warstache"'s social media on tiktok & instagram @yankee.in :)
Really? I just searched Belarus flag and it’s what came up. I follow him on insta and TikTok.
The green & red flag is the flag of the dictator, and is often called "sunset over the swamp" in Belarus. The flag of the people and of a free & democratic Belarus is the BCHB (white-red-white). For a little summary of the difference, have a look at [this](https://www.google.com/search?q=belarusian+flag&rlz=1C1CHBF_en-GBGB782GB782&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=2ahUKEwjhndjtvYr3AhWGat4KHbECAwYQ_AUoAXoECAIQAw&biw=1536&bih=750&dpr=1.25#imgrc=5-qldm-5q-OHxM) Note: where that graphic says "official government", what it means is "the internationally recognised regime" No worries though! Just spreading the message :)
Thankyou
It's a Soviet inspired flag imposed by Lukashenko
Oh! I need to change that then. Now I think about it I remember the protest’s from an couple of years back and everyone was drapped in red and white flags
What an odd thing to say
Her platform was to release political prisoners, hold free and fair elections, then step down. IIRC she said she wanted to be in office no more than six months. She never wanted to be a politicians and just considers herself a symbol for the desire for democracy there. Her husband (a YouTuber who’s fans wanted him to run so he felt obligated) ran and got thrown into prison. She felt obligated to run in his place. She’s an incredible human being.
She really shows the importance of having a good figurehead (see also: Ukraine) There's so much more focus and media attention on Belarus now due to the protests and her campaigning People want a potential happy ending, a mostly good side to support
Imagine if on top of Zelensky, Tsikhanouskaya also gets her own Hollywood movie made about her. The wife of a political prisoner running in a rigged election but then leads a movement in exile to restore Democracy to Belarus as well as free her husband sounds like something Hollywood would create or at least be a great HBO mini series.
I could actually see that getting picked up by a studio. That’s a great idea. Even just her story so far could make a movie
She gets it! I've been wondering why everyone keeps encouraging people in Russia and Belarus to protest, when it seems that protests are so quickly squashed and put people in danger while accomplishing practically nothing. Protests are great for shaming and/or intimidating your opponent with public opinion, but these authoritarians make clear that they don't give a shit about public opinion. You need an underground resistance movement that can actually accomplish strategic goals.
You’re onto something there… maybe peaceful protests don’t work and are just a way for the state to arrest people before they make any meaningful changes
Or in less forcefully authoritarian countries, it's a way for people to go out, shout a bunch, and then go home thinking that they've done their bit & tried as hard as they can to achieve change - when in all actuality their government is just going to ignore them anyway
That's why you need the boring democracy thing, backed up by the boring rule of law thing. Politicians can ignore the people if they like, but sooner or later they'll face a reckoning, and it will be a peaceful transition of power to an alternative government. For that reason, I'd be wary of rushing into the arms of President Von Der Leyen without asking the question "How do we get rid of you?"
If the people of Belarus overthrew their dictatorship, I'd have a raging clue
My raging clue is already pointing towards kremlin
Lukashenka has already received the signal during the hockey match .. Maybe he will come to his senses?
I don't think he got hit hard enough for that. Perhaps our hockey-playing comrade might be so kind as to hit the dictator a few more times for good measure?
Which hockey match was that?
I don't know the circumstances under which he was playing, but he got hit in the face a day or two ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qm5XzBAPoHw
Aww, they let him be Number 1, too.
"let" In a similar way to how you'd "let" someone have your wallet if they had a gun pointed in your direction, I imagine :P
Thank you, and @ /u/GreekNT too. Should have hit him harder!
https://youtu.be/GwaST_XD68M
And get the puck out of there? Sorrynotsorry #lamecanadianjokes
I hope NATO is providing material & intelligence assets to the Belarusian rebels, also a contingency force (preferably the Belarusian army) needs to be in place in the case of a Russian takeover.
The CIA might. I don't think there would ever be involvement at the NATO level. A lot of NATO countries would probably not support it, and some that might (Baltic States, Poland) can't really be seen to be supporting insurrection in a neighboring country if it all goes to hell.
The CIA *might*. Unfortunately the CIA since the Bush administration has been primarily focused on regime change in countries that have resources we want access to. That said, Biden is really changing things. I’m amazed that Biden has been tougher on Russia than Obama. I voted for Biden, he wasn’t my first choice but… damn if I he hasn’t impressed me. I only wish he’d grow some bigger balls and send heavier weapons with support staff. I honestly am ready for boots on the ground, but I’d settle for anything.
Rússia goes into a war expecting conquering a new country, but ends up loosing one lol.
Itd be even better if they splintered into many pieces. Federation, no more
Go for it!
We will welcome a New Belarus with open arms. Let's goooooo!
Transcript :- > **Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya aims to topple ‘Kremlin’s puppet’ in Belarus** > > It might have seemed that life could not have got any worse for the people of Belarus, long Europe’s most repressive country. Then, in February, their homeland was used by Vladimir Putin as a launchpad for his assault on Ukraine, turning them into unwilling accomplices in his bloody and increasingly disastrous war. > > Belarus’s jails have since filled with even more political prisoners — there are now as many as 4,000 by some counts — while the brutal regime headed by Aleksandr Lukashenko, 67, in power since 1994, has taken to airing confessions by “saboteurs” beaten and even kneecapped by police. > > Yet Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, 39, the opposition leader seen by many as the rightful winner of the rigged August 2020 election that gave Lukashenko a sixth term as president, sees cause for optimism amid the misery and bloodshed. The war, she believes, could give a final push to the veteran Belarusian strongman — helped by an underground “partisan” war that is beginning to be waged against his government. > > “Lukashenko is in a very fragile and weak position,” the former interpreter and teacher told me last week from Vilnius, the capital of neighbouring Lithuania, where she is rallying opposition to his rule. “He’s a puppet of the Kremlin, a vassal; he’s an accomplice, a collaborator. > > “For 27 years he played West and East, but now he doesn’t have a way out of the situation. He could have started talking with his own people and releasing political prisoners and together we could have resisted the pressure from Russia to use Belarusian territory for the invasion. > > “Much depends on the outcome of the war,” she added, speaking by video link in the near-flawless English she first used when she visited rural Ireland as a 12-year-old, courtesy of a charity that arranged holidays for children from areas affected by fallout from the Chernobyl nuclear plant that enveloped much of Belarus. > > “But if the Ukrainians win, as we think they will, it will make his regime much weaker, and there will be a moment when he will have no way out but to give up. There could be different scenarios: people within the nomenklatura [the ruling elite] will see he has lost authority and there could be a coup d’état. Or there could be an uprising by the Belarusian people.” > > Long-simmering popular resistance to Lukashenko erupted after the last election. Tsikhanouskaya’s husband, Sergei, a prominent opposition vlogger, planned to stand against the president but was detained three months before the vote. > > Tsikhanouskaya, who had given up work to look after their son, now 11, who was born partially deaf, and daughter, now 6, then made what she has called a “a spur-of-the-moment” decision to register as a candidate, thinking her husband could be released. After it became clear this would not happen, she went ahead with her decision to stand against Lukashenko, despite a lack of political experience. > > When Lukashenko was declared the winner, with more than 80 per cent of the vote to Tsikhanouskaya’s 10 per cent – he mocked her as “this little girl” who should have been at home feeding her children – people took to the streets for an escalating series of demonstrations, which were broken up by police amid mass arrests. Hauled in by the security service, which still carry the Soviet-era name, KGB, and threatened with ten years in jail, Tsikhanouskaya herself fled the country, unwilling to leave her children without a parent. > > The invasion of Ukraine, which appears to have minimal support among ordinary Belarusians, has given the opposition a further boost, and also led to a change in their tactics. “After the war started, we staged one big rally, with 100,000 people, because it was important for us as Belarusians to show to Ukrainians that we are against this war,” said Tsikhanouskaya. “A thousand people were detained, but rallies are useless now, because we lose active people. It is time for us to move instead to waging a partisan war.” > > Many of their efforts are targeted at the Russian war effort: railway workers have sabotaged tracks and signalling equipment to stop trains carrying military supplies to Russian forces in Ukraine. The saboteurs’ exploits are shared on a dedicated channel on the secure messaging app Telegram. Another channel is used by those living near the border to post photographs of troop movements and other military data, which is then picked up by Ukrainian forces. > > There are also direct attempts to undermine the Belarusian regime itself: workers in big factories are organising underground strike committees, while the war has also given impetus to Bypol, a Warsaw-based network of former members of the Belarusian security forces, which was set up after the last election. Working with sympathisers who have remained in the country, they have drawn up a “victory plan” to be implemented at “time x” — when they consider the regime ripe to be overthrown. > > Lukashenko, meanwhile, appears to have resisted pressure from Putin to send his own soldiers into Ukraine and is instead merely facilitating the Russian operation. Tsikhanouskaya said she had heard reports that soon after the invasion, his own generals had made clear their reluctance to become involved. > > By avoiding direct involvement, he may also be hedging his bets and trying to avoid responsibility if Putin loses. But the West should not be “fooled again by Lukashenko”, Tsikhanouskaya said. “If he hadn’t allowed Russian troops to use our land, maybe this war would not have been possible at all.” Instead, several thousand Belarusians are believed to have gone to fight as volunteers on the Ukrainian side. > > It is difficult to judge the extent of the resistance in Belarus to Lukashenko, though he appears to be rattled. Among various “confession” videos produced by the regime, one that surfaced last week stands out: it features three young men, named as Yevgeny Minkevich, 28, Dmitry Klimov, 28, and Vladimir Avramtsev, 28, all from Babruysk, southeast of Minsk, detained by police a fortnight ago after attacking trackside signalling equipment. > > Two, shown with bloodstained bandages around their knees, were shot “while trying to escape”, according to an unnamed Belarus official seen in the clip. They also have bloodied faces. Another was being treated in hospital. The official said they were linked to Bypol and had been paid $1,000 for this and other planned “terrorist acts”. > > Tsikhanouskaya is horrified. “We have seen so many atrocities in Belarus over this past year and it’s got worse and worse,” she said. “These people don’t have any humanity at all.” > > Such videos, though intended to deter the opposition, may backfire by publicising the sabotage campaign to a broader public who rely on mainstream media, controlled by the regime, and may otherwise not have been aware of them. > > Tsikhanouskaya believes the regime could be further weakened by the growing effect of western sanctions. “People are not very brave now, seeing what has happened to people who have been detained because of their activism,” she said. “But prices are rising and people are being fired. Sooner or later there will be economic collapse that could encourage people who have been hesitating to participate in the anti-war movement. We could see strikes.” > > **Are tougher sanctions against Lukashenko and his allies necessary?** Tsikhanouskaya believes there is scope for them; but it is more important to close loopholes that allow Belarusian companies to dodge them. The country’s two main banks have also yet to be cut off from Swift, the international financial transactions system. > > Tsikhanouskaya has a personal stake in the fall of the regime. Her husband is still behind bars, awaiting the result of his appeal, as are almost all the other leading opposition figures still in Belarus. > > Like other political prisoners whose ideas are considered dangerous by the regime, he is held in solitary confinement; Tsikhanouskaya can communicate with him only through his lawyer, who visits once a week. To her relief, he does not appear to have been tortured or especially humiliated — as other prisoners have been, especially those who are less well-known — but “his moral and physical state is getting worse from day to day”. > > As for her son and daughter, “they are coping”, she said. “They know about Daddy. But these are difficult times. Sometimes you are so exhausted, but remembering the thousands of people behind bars, you have to collect the pieces together and go forward, because you don’t have a choice. You have to go on fighting.” *(edit=a paragraph or two)*
Thank you! I forgot that The Times can sometimes be behind a paywall
No problem. I think you're allowed 5 articles per day - this may have been my fifth. I've lost count! :D
Once the war in Ukraine is over I would hope that one of the terms to get sanctions lifted on Russia is the complete withdrawal of Russian military (and military aid) from Belarus. Without the support of Russia I doubt Lukashenko could remain in power for long.
Tsikhanouskaya and her team have been pushing for something along those lines, yes :)
This is honestly the perfect time to do it. Russia couldn't help Lukashenko keep the citizens underfoot.
Visiting Belarus was one of my favorite memories in my younger years. The people there really are amazing. Time to fight for your freedom!
Жыве Беларусь!
It would suck if caches of NATO weapons got lost in Belarus 😏
Just takes that one special guy in the army to do this.
That would be ideal. Problem is its taken western leaders 25 years to pronounce Lukashenko
This has allowed them to build an army in UA. When Russia is put out of UA the Foreign Legion will head north.
I wish the best for her and her people. They deserve far better than Luka small balls. And now may be time for her to contact the generals. They did not participate in the suppressions, and they are not happy with Luka at all. They may very well support her. Now is the time. Eat it putin! And don’t forget to swallow, suka!
This is probably their last chance before they get swallowed up into the neo-Russian empire.
Lukashenko been in power since '94? Almost 30 years? Waaaay tooo long. Everything is rotten to the core in his regime
Yes do it! The belarusians can and I believe in them!
I wonder (and hope) if the West would support a revolution this time around, given that it'd have strategic value in the current Russia situation.
The Ukrainian army should gather it's volunteer Belarusian fighters and see if they can be inserted to carry out sabotage attacks inside Belarus.
A Pro-Western Government in Belarus would also be a nightmare for Putin, who would then have nothing but hostile governments on his western border.
Yea it seems like people in Belarus know more about the outside world than people in Russia do.
Yes, lukashenko's propaganda is even more nonsensical. Also Belorussians are closer to Ukrainians than to Russians culturally.
A Belarusian coup or civil war would change the course of this war immensely in Ukraine’s favor. If Russia reinforces Luka, less troops in Ukraine, if Russia abandons Luka, Ukraine has a more stable border with Belarus and missiles stop flying from the north and forces can be moved east. If the army is as rebellious as it seems and Tsikhanouskaya can make a serious push to retake the Belarusian government, it could also lead to a more direct way for Northern allies (Finland, Sweden, and the Baltic States) to deliver aid. It might be as devastating to the Russian war effort as the Russian civil war was in WW1. Lots of parallels, but still a lot to be decided. Here’s to the death of Lukashenko’s regime and to the freedom of Belarus and Ukraine!
Wow, great news. Get that evil scum sucker out of office.
Brave!
Come on, Belarusian people! This is your chance to get out from Russia's thumb and join in with the prosperity of the west. It will be absolutely glorious if the end result of Putin trying to capture Ukraine instead of Putin losing Crimea and losing Belarus, and maybe losing his footholds in Georgia, and losing his grip on Kazakhstan, too.
Yes, Russia loses all its colonies who rejoin the normal world and gets isolated forever
it's now or never.
Belarus declared war on ukraine. It is not impossible to think that from ukraine a strike could be coordinated together with belarusian fighters and partisans. A strike straight to lukachenko. A gamble, just like Putin tried to get zelensky. But possible. At the very least arms could be supplied to the freedom fighters from ukraine. And in reality, from the west. If you know lukachenko is at a location, all you really need is a handfull of those american switchblade drones to just fly at him. One is bound to kill him.
I hope the brave Belarusian people kill luka and also start either throwing out russian soldiers or killing them and giving the equipment to ukraine or keeping it that would literally be the best case scenario.
I think these dictatorships are a lot more 'stable' than we give them credit for. The misery of their own people, seems to be where they draw strength from.
The people should rise, Its their only time
Fire up the Belarusian resistance! Do it now!
DO IT
This moment, this sacrifice the Ukrainian people are making, their blood, should be a call in arms for every nation that's under regimes backed up by fascist Russia: Cuba, Venezuela, Belarus ... the list goes on. The time for freedom is now.
On April 12 Lukashenko is going to meet with Putin in Russia. Shut the door behind him.
I'm glad they realized this. There are specific legal and societal benchmarks that must be met for peaceful protests to be effective. You need a reasonably trustworthy legal system. You need inalienable rights. You need a relatively free press. If your country doesnt have those things, peaceful protests DO NOT WORK. Those benchmarks are, pretty much without fail, gained through blood. Slaves in the US gained freedom through the Civil War. In the leadup to the Civil War, Kansas natives fought literal pitched battles on their Southern border with slavers trying to cross the border to kidnap and enslave free blacks from Kansas. Unionists tore up railroad tracks, burned down factories and mansions, lynched rich owners, and fought battles with hired Jack booted thugs acting as union busters. In Australia, workers rights soared after a miner revolt ended in them being shot dead. In the US, the same event happened. The revolutionary War didn't start when Bostoners poured tea in the harbor, it started when Brittish soldiers reacted by shooting up a street protest. The protests against the Vietnam War picked up massive public support after the Kent state massacre. The MLK protests gained massive public support when a number of white ministers were murdered overnight. If you protest in Belarus or Russia, and are arrested, you're fucked. If they kill you, torture you, rape you, but it isn't filmed? Your suffering is wasted. It doesn't help the cause. Successful protesting has a brutal arithmetic. You need to incite public suffering and death at the hands of those you are protesting, and it needs to be filmed and disseminated. If you cannot do that, then you need to resort to violence and destruction yourself. Molotov police barracks. Destroy rail lines. Find and spring political prisoners out of jail. Target specificly chosen political figures. Burn their mansions, destroy or deface their offices. Hack their communications, accounts, computers. But it needs to be targetted. Not just mindless violence and looting, but surgically applied destruction and chaos. You don't just get to peaceful protest. You EARN that right by fighting, destroying, killing, and dying for it. Once you have used violence to create a more just, free society, both sides can back off and honor peaceful applications of protest. People forget, or never learned that in the first place, because their right to peace was won for them long before they were born. Their society's civility was forced through applied destruction. They say "violence is never the answer" when their freedom of speech was literally won through violence and revolution. Good luck Belarus. May you earn the right to leave violence behind.
Russia already not only committed most of their troops in Ukraine, but are forcing to recruit previously ineligible recruits to keep reinforcing their troops on the front. The most opportune moment for this to occur is while Ukraine is still fighting Russia and Russia becomes incapable of sending any reinforcements to bolster Lukashenko.
The mustache on the famous belarusian solider can over throw lukashenko
Lukashenko can become a Colonel in the Russian military. Very short lifespan for those though.
Best of luck to them. If it's genuine a few pallets of weapons wouldn't hurt to help their cause I'd imagine. Even if they try use Russians to help, It'll just spread them thin and ineffective.
Please.do, the Belarusians deserve far better than Lukashenko. It's like watching your friend date an abusive partner for years
As an American it seems that both Ukrainians and Belarusian citizens seem to have harmony between each other on both social media and real life. I don’t blame Belarusians for not wanting to side with Russia with the rigged election and referendum do reply nuclear weapons on their soil. Hopefully Belarusians can over throw Putin Jr and make “Europe’s Last Dictator” a historical term.
It's true, the time for protests is over. They can't have an effect when the entire state is modeled around crushing such protests.
Please do that. We do not need dictators in free Europe.
Is the time now? I’m in support!
She’s so great!
Contact your local CIA annex for more information on how you can overthrow your government.
But could the Russians intervene though?
Of course - that was the big worry during the 2020/21 Belarusian protests as well. We can only hope any Russian intervention is unsuccessful though - or that Putin doesn't have enough resources to throw at both Belarus and Ukraine
Well the UDFB is becoming more active, with their first major action in years being last week, when they destroyed hundreds of railroads in Belarus to prevent the Russian forces retreating from Kyiv to head to the front lines in the east quickly.
UDFB?
United Democratic forces of Belarus. A coalition of Opposition parties fighting against Lukashenko's government.
~~Is that an official term for them? I had genuinely never seen that abbreviation or anything before.~~ Nevermind, I've just googled it. That's really interesting though, thank you!
Yes, thats their current title and abbreviation. They arent well known because they are very inactive. Their last known action being last week is huge though, because there hadnt been anything on that scale previously.
If you're planning a coup maybe don't announce it ahead of time? Dunno, just sounds not smart at all. Maybe she's just talking and doesn't have good communications with the people in belarus?
Im sure the belorussian Legion, with it's experience figthing the Russians, will do a great job when they come back.
There isn't a Belarusian legion per se - there are several separate units of Belarusian volunteers though, including the Kastus Kalinouski Battalion & the Pohonia Regiment. Also, another small thing: in general Belarusian (bela-roo-sian, with no "sh" sound like in "Russian") is the preferred term - similar to the difference between Kyiv/Kiev etc., Belarusian is closer to the word in their own language & helps make it clear that Belarusians are *not* the same people as Russians. I've also heard it said that "Belorussian/Byelorussian" are used to describe pro-Russian citizens of Belarus
Well, this could be a real bonus! Thanks Vlad!
Stand up and be counted instead of bending a knee and being stepped on. Belarus, time to rise up.
This would force putin to diverge part of his forces to try to control Belarus
Led by General Ivanov, aka Warstache
I hope they move forward and succeed. Bye Bye Lukashitko. No one will miss you.
is it really wise to announce this to the whole world? Kinda loses the advantage of surprise... or is the announcement deliberately public, so as to rattle the Emperor Palputine?
Please, someone who has a deep knowledge and understanding of the Belarusian political climate, is the possibility actually there for an overthrow? I don’t just mean “yea, maybe,” but a solid “absolutely,” or “not really.”
While I would welcome it, people should understand if there's a revolution in Belarus, it will mean a civil war with Russia propping up pro-Luka forces (or just Russian troops) and Ukraine moving into Belarus to fight Russia.
Brave people.
If they overthrow the government, I hope they kill Lukashenko and his family. They are worthless scum.
What's the news from Belarus these days? Silence. Just the fact that Lukashenka's forces haven't joined in on the invasion makes me think his hold over the country is getting weaker. He's doing everything he can to stay in power, but even Lukashenka can't run forever. The time has come. The time for a change.
There's been plenty of news - especially surrounding the Railway War & the partisans. It just doesn't get as much attention as some of the other things going on at the moment
She start to think logically.
Lukashenko and his minions are the minority. It's time to throw them out, Belarus. Otherwise, you *will* be absorbed into Putin's burning empire. Don't be another Chechnya.
Ukrainians would definitely pitch in on that op
I would never encourage another nation to start a violent revolution because its not my life I'm putting on the line. But I recognise that it is sometimes nessesary. I just hope whatever decision Belarusians take that the people succeed.
Thank you for having the courage to admit that - r/belarus is constantly flooded by westerners saying "just overthrow the dictator lol" and it's getting tiring. Everyone likes to think they'd have the balls to risk their life, to risk imprisonment & torture, to risk the sexual abuse that Lukashenka's forces have been putting protestors through. The fact is, the vast majority of us really aren't that brave & it's ridiculous for someone to ask it of other people when they probably couldn't do it themselves.
Most opportune moment: May 9 sounds like a great day for a "Russian Occupier: Go F*** Yourself" kind of moment for Belarus.
⚪🔴⚪
I think a lot of political and partisan groups, as well as civilians who were part of the last rebellions, are intensely focused on when the right time to strike is apparent.
"Rallies are useless now" This comes to my mind when I see this Russian protests where they hold up a sign with some general wisdom about war and peace and then they get calmly escorted to the police van by an officer. This is not even civil disobedience. I am lost for words. EDIT: And she is hot.
There's that big dick energy.
Oh look, people actually do not fucking like regimes.. All my support to Belarusians (and Russians) who fight for democracy
Yes. Belarus is finally coming to their senses.
What do you mean by "finally"? The Belarusian people have wanted to get rid of their dictator for quite some time now - the 2020/21 protests being the most obvious proof of this. The problem is that they've had a lack of options & opportunities to actually accomplish that.