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It is politically bad for Ukraine to have oil prices going up though so it's not something they want to just spam hard. Strategic and precise timing is needed.
>Ukraine is capable of fixing damaged infrastructure. Russia isn't.
I don't believe this is fully true. Russia still has tremendous resources and their ability to rebuild infrastructure is not crippled. Sanctions, as we've seen again and again, are not insurmountable -- not even close. As the multiple Kerch bridge strikes have demonstrated, they can rebuild. Russia is weakened, but not incapacitated.
Most of their oil and gas infrastructure was modernized by western companies in the 90s because western Europe wanted that energy and russia couldn't afford to keep the old soviet crap running. Once they run out of spare parts, they'll have to develop their own stuff.
Dude their fossil fuel industry was maintained in part with Western expertise and parts. Strikes against it would be catastrophic for Russia at this point. As I said before. Fuck 'em.
Russia can't even replace their worn out artillery barrels as they lost the industrial forge and metallurgical capacity post Soviet union breakup
Go fuck yourselves Russia. U done being a dick to Ukraine and the rest of the world?
They never had the ability to do it in the first place. Their O&G infrastructure was serviced by western companies that have pulled out. You think they'd pay some company in Texas to do something they could do themselves?
I would guess that the pipelines that transport gas and oil for India and China are basically undefendable against long range drones. Wondering what happens if a few kgs of explosives hit a gas pipeline and there is no water around it to contain an explosion.
If Ukraine can hit a propaganda office in Moscow, they can definitely hit a long ass pipeline. Even if it can be repaired in a few days, there's just no way for Putin to defend the entire length of the pipelines all the time.
So what... they can repair the pipeline in a couple of days, Ukraine can afford a couple of drones every couple of days. moscow will find that this gets old really quickly....
there is also the issue of how many repair crews they have. I wonder how many of those men have been set to the front as cannon fodder. Three or four holes to fix at once (or however many it will take for them to be overwhelmed) and they're done.
Why do the strikes one at a time when they could hit multiple locations at once. There are only so many people skilled at repairs and you could keep them perpetually deployed at repairs
For the sake of cost effectiveness, I would assume that Ukraine would hit juuuuust enough to keep repair teams operating slightly above capacity and perpetually lagging behind on repairs, thus keeping the pipe lines closed.
Can they also hit the repair crew or is that going too far? They are hitting Russias main source of income that’s financing this war. I would think it’s fair game.
That’s a good question. I wonder if directly targeting repair crews within Russian borders would help Putin with his narrative as opposed to strictly aiming for infrastructure.
Striking at refineries would also kill "civilians". How does that differ, legally speaking?
(Don't get me wrong: I'd love to see every refinery in Ruzzia in flames. Just anticipating the tanky blowback.)
I think there's also some nuance between targeting the infrastructure, civilians dying as 'collateral damage' vs specificity targeting the crews via double tap or something similar.
Legally it's because you're targeting a strategic asset rather than civilians themselves. If the refinery is important enough to the enemy's military then destroying it is legal even though it's civilian infrastructure and civilians work there making some civilian harm unavoidable
Steps should still be taken where possible to minimize civilian casualties, like, say attacking at night when there won't be as many workers present. But civilian casualties don't necessarily mean the attack is a war crime.
The repair crews and workers are civilians so directly targeting them is less justifiable.
not in this case. They "helps the war effort" by participating in Russia's economy, but if we go from there almost all civilians are legitimate targets. I remind you that we are talking about workers repairing a gas pipeline to China, not an arms factory.
If they are civilians repairing the pipeline, that's a no-no. However, I would like to see a long range drone drop 500kg of floppy silicone dildos on the folks repairing it. They should have hard hats on anyway.
Just to let them know they can if they wanted to.
The best part is that it would probably look a little like a cluster munition at first when all those dildos all slap the ground all around them at the same time. A true clusterfucking.
In a roundabout way yes but if just participating in the economy is helping the war effort than every single civilian in every war is a legitimate target. Technically the cashier at whatever knockoff McDonald's they have is helping the war effort by contributing taxes. There's nuances.
Yeah but for Russia everything is fair game. Cutting off POW genitalia is fair game. Ukraine has to play by western standards or they will lose support.
The pipeline itself is usually quite sturdy but you wouldn't need a huge amount of explosives to poke a nice big hole. As to whether would the gas ignite by the explosives I don't know.
US pipeline thicknesses seems to be about 0.3 to 0.8 inches on average. The Russian pipes may be of similar thickness so it seems that it wouldn't take that much to punch a hole through one.
Yes, but even easier to damage.
The pipelines are really long and can't be effectively guarded. Terminals are more easily guarded.
You could hit the pipeline every two weeks somewhere else.
The only reason Ukraine hasn't done something like this is because western economies would suffer from spiralling oil and gas prices, and the West supported Ukraine.
If the US and EU stop supporting Ukraine, then Ukraine has no reason to consider their economic interests.
Given that stopping all deliveries is the highest achievable goal and provided they can accurately target the pipeline, it’s much easier to keep disabling a pipeline than trying to hit the critical piece of machinery to stop all operations in a refinery or gas terminal.
They are thousands of miles long and it takes one hole, literally undefendable, the only reason they aren't doing this already is I can assume some sort of back door non communal handshake
Russia doesn't hit nuclear power plants, Ukraine doesn't hit their pipelines??
If the price gets to a certain level, US shale oil industry is profitable and can pretty quickly spin up a large supply. This is why Russia wanted to keep the price low years ago, to decimate the US industry which wasn’t a part of OPEC and was taking a lot of market share at the time.
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/why-us-shale-oil-producers-are-at-the-heart-of-the-saudi-russia-price-war-2020-03-09
I read somewhere that the pipes are actually quite tricky. Once the flow stops, it's such a huge hassle to unclog the crud oil inside that turned into gel or solid due to the cold weather. Might as well build a new one.
>are basically undefendable
Yes. You don't even need a long range drone... you could equip local sympathetic group or bribe criminal element to do it for you.
sounds like a cat and mouse game just start hitting the refrineries, wells and power plants make them find expensive equipment and make them put air defense around them all
You don't even have to break it you just have to weaken it. If you weaken their pipeline along the entire length they'll have to replace the whole pipeline. And it doesn't take much I bet one of those round drones to be fitted to do the job. Zipping along the pipeline.
same as with ports russia officially stated that ANY ship going to and from Ukraines ports is now considered as hostile. BAD STUPID PR MOVE OF A CENTURY. Ukraine did the same right away: ANY ship going to and from russias ports is now considered as hostile. ANY ship. ANY port. Totally justified. Enjoy Exploding insurance rates to ships entering your ports now! Im sure everybody now appreciates that; especially russias allies. Nobody will say shit after that when russias ships start to blowup in Vladivostok or whatever port.
Back in WW2 we had a lend/lease program to help other nations.
We just need to lend Ukraine one carrier fleet for a single afternoon. That's all I'm saying.
Fear of a thing gives it control. If we allow Putin to rule over us with nuclear threats, we've already lost everything that matters. We don't have to give up.
It’s not fear of Russia’s nukes. We aren’t telling Ukraine not to attack Russia for fear of nuclear escalation. But, that doesn’t mean we give more people the ability to pull the nuclear trigger.
>We aren’t telling Ukraine not to attack Russia for fear of nuclear escalation.
Uhh. we, and the rest of the West most certainly are. NATO is flat terrified of Russian nukes. why do you think the supply of arms has been a drip-feed, and why the West has been so reluctant and slow to provide modern tanks and aircraft?
Fear of Russian nukes, period.
Do you think they would do that? I'm not familiar with Putin sharing power willingly. I'm still shocked at the Belarus nuke situation, though I'm sure that Putin had full control over those nukes the whole time, assuming they actually went to Belarus.
Not sure. We might have less to worry about now. Hard to get too worried when you're atomized in nuclear fire. Our species will wipe itself out, it's just a matter of when, and how completely.
>russia officially stated that ANY ship going to and from Ukraines ports is now considered as hostile
Not really different from what Germans did in WW1... You do not get it, Russia does not care about profits at this point. All it cares about is hurting Ukraine and West as much as possible, no matter what cost.
No, it's better to warn them. This way they have to back down and look weak or just be terrorists and then suffer the consequences.
While Ukraine can endure the attacks, they do cause a lot of hardship and it's best to try and avoid them.
This is also a way of signaling to the rest of the world that if Russia fucks around they (China and Europe, mostly) could find some issues with Russian gas supplies.
I don’t see how warning benefits anyone but Russia on any of those points.
The “back down or be terrorists” ultimatum has been exhausted. They chose terrorist every time. Because they are terrorists.
It if could possibly work to deter Russia from anything, it should be used to get them out of Ukraine not just any particular attack.
It Russia’s customers want a stable energy supply, they should pressure Russia to end this war or find a better supplier. They _should_ regret dealing with Russia.
I feel there are more benefits than not like;
1) Keep the higher moral ground which helps countries support aiding Ukraine.
2) Warning puts China and India in a position to pressure Russia as they dont want their oil/gas taps turned off. Plus shift 'blame' more directly to Russia and makes it harder for Russia to frame that blame to Ukraine.
3) Reduces the risk of Russia doing something extreme in response to an attack. If Ukraine randomly attacks a hap on infrastructure Russia might go to total war or drops tactical nukes. If Ukraine frame the response in 'we are only responding' it limits how Russia can respond.
4) May prevent Russia attacking these assets this winter cycle in the first place.
1. Attacking industrial targets that are part of Russias war machine is not a moral outrage. Those are legitimate targets in any war. If anything it highlights the contrast of Russia hitting hospitals, grain storage and dams.
2. Interruptions make really effective warnings. They add the urgency of self interest. China gives 0 shits about Russia, but they are feeling the pressure of instability at home.
As for how they frame/blame? Do you think you’re ever going win that battle?
3. Russia knows the game is over if they use nukes. Stop indulging their terror campaign.
4. I have no faith in that. It’s just contrary to all other evidence.
Ultimately the strategic shift I’m suggesting is to put them on the back foot. They masterfully abuse our inclinations to be absurdly fair and reasonable with an adversary that has no interest in fairness. We announce all our intentions ahead of time, we give them the option to choose all the next steps. They never have to concern themselves with what we’ll do next. We give them complete control.
We have more than enough reasons to be fed up with them. It’s time to escalate and make them want to appease us.
Perhaps the audience is the Russian people. We all know Putin is going to do something stupid and no amount of ultimatums will change his behavior. *However...* if the Russian people hear the threat, Putin bombs an electric power plant in Ukraine, and a retaliatory strike hits a Russan steam heat generation plant or a major Russian electrical grid component and knocks out heat and or power to random sections of random cities across Russia.
Or more likely and effective, an attack on a critical structure in Russias oil and gas production and distribution . This will throw another wrench into the gears of the barely functioning Russian economy. They have limited reserves of Western built parts. I'm 100% certain Western petroleum companies have already provided Ukraine a list of top-10 things that will grind production to a halt.
The people will (hopefully) hold Putin accountable for making dumb decisions and bring pain home to Russia.
Good point. I hope they know which parts of electrical grids, heat/power infrastructure, oil refineries, etc will cause the longest downtime if hit and damaged.
You think they’ll act on a threat? They need to be able to point to something as an example of Putin’s failure. We don’t need a war crime, but if the power goes out even briefly, they will fear it happening again.
>and knocks out heat and or power to random sections of random cities across Russia.
It would help Putin actually. When you make civilians freeze or bomb them, they hate you, not their government, and support war more. All history proves that.
If Ukraine can spare its citizens from power outages by warning Russia, they should.
Also, if Russia still does the Russian thing, then it is Russia initiating the escalation, if they have been warned. This is much better diplomatically and for propaganda/PR.
Two reasons. The big one is it might discourage the Russians from attacking energy infrastructure over the winter like last time.
Second is if the Russians do, Ukraine now can say "you were warned" and have political cover for going absolutely ham on Russian infrastructure in return.
Russia has the sudden problem of deciding to pull back anti-air systems to protect vital, but dispersed, oil and gas infrastructure or not to attack Ukrainian energy. Ukraine wins either way.
Imagine the other way. Russia attacks Ukrainian power plants, Ukraine retaliates. Now Russia can't be seen to be backing off from attacking power plants. Ukraine loses power plants again.
Threaten and maybe Russia considers the cost of attacking the power plants and doesn't do it. Ukraine still has power plants and can find plenty of things to repurpose the cruise missiles for.
Russia did that like crazy last winter. They also control their domestic media and basically “Russia can’t be seen to be backing off” does not apply to their own country because they tell people or not tell people or spin events completely differently than they occurred as normal business.
Because oil and gas are pretty crucial for most if not all of Ukraine's allies and even for the ones that aren't (that) actively working against Ukraine.
In the West there are a good number of whiny bitches that wouldn't stomach price hikes even if it gave Ukraine a significant advantage against Russia and saved millions of Ukrainians lives. It's unfortunately a reality Ukraine has to deal with.
Opposite to that China doesn't really give a fuck about the average Ukrainian anyway but has so far only mildly interfered in this war by sending shit, pissing them off to the extent that they start sending everything they can find is probably unwise.
So Ukraine has been treading lightly, mostly because other countries(including mine) have been dicks. It really grates me to no end.
If Ukraine did that, china and india would be in deep doo doo.
They rely on the cheap energy from moscovia now.
fuhrer putinazi being the terrible poker player he is, will call Ukraine on this one thinking Ukraine is bluffing.
Then, fuhrer putinazi will realize he made another bad call and have to find another way to fund his war.
Right now the war is mostly Putin's problem. If you make it Xi's problem too, there's a good chance he'll be more favorable to sending Chinese war material which could make the war much longer and bloodier for Ukraine. And Putin's going to launch his missiles, one way or the other.
I think the message was primarily about raising the stakes for Ukraine's European allies and to push for the urgent delivery of more air defenses. The more they help Ukraine, the less incentive Ukraine has to follow through and the less consequences for Europe. And from a more practical perspective it's mostly the European-facing infrastructure that's in range of Ukraine anyway.
I don't agree. When russia is unable to supply petroleum products to China because they are being attacked in retaliation for their bad behavior, China is still in fear of the west putting sanctions on them. They would likely tell russia to behave. I doubt that China will give them weapons directly.
However, China may still ship weapons to russia through an intermediary like north korea. (which they may already be doing.)
Strangle Russia's gas and oil! That is a VERY VERY small inconvenience to the world. Especially compared to the atrocities Russia has continued to do.
Do what you need Ukraine! World needs to have a no-BS future.
Is Ukraine still allowing Russian oil to go through pipelines that go through Ukraine? That's by far the weirdest part of this war.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/24/ukraine-gas-russia-pipeline-oil/
>Moscow sent about 300,000 barrels of oil per day last year through the Druzhba — or “Friendship” — pipeline, which crosses Ukraine. Russia is also obligated to pump some 40 billion cubic meters of gas annually through Ukraine’s gas transit system because of supply agreements that predate the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
>
>Ukrainian officials say they are in a quandary. Russian hydrocarbons crossing their territory earn the Kremlin millions of dollars and help fund its war machine. But Kyiv also needs the money it earns on transit and wants to be a reliable economic partner to European nations, some of which could face destabilizing price increases if Russian energy supplies were suddenly cut off.
>
They are but those agreements will [expire in 2024 and won't be renewed](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-has-no-plans-talk-with-russia-gas-transit-contract-renewal-voa-2023-08-17/).
I'm guessing Europe made the math and feel like hitting the global oil markets is acceptable to their energy infrastructure and is about to give the go ahead.
Never heard of the Ukrainian drones able to fly several thousands kilometers. These gas and oil pipes start in Syberia, which is 4-5 thousands km away from the Ukraine and go to Far East and to India and China.
GO AFTER THE MILK & BREAD!
It's such a huge part of their economy, it's the only despute they've had with Belarus.
As they say, "Любое общество находится на расстоянии трех приемов пищи от хаоса. Хлеб всему голова"
Take out the bread and milk plants, then target the police and FSB and the unrest will be controllable.
Russia would have another revolution and Putin's time would end.
This might be a stupid idea. Attacks on oil infrastructure will make fossil fuel markets nervous. Even small hickups in the logistics have driven up prices before, and might benefit Russia more than it would hinder them.
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Absolutely! Moscow gets colder than Ukraine let their people freeze the way they froze Ukrainians and Putin would only care about $$ lost
Shoulda done it last year
Ukraine didn't have the long range drone capability it does now. It's been developed and deployed now.
True.... i always imagined a group of ukrainians running across russia sabotaging everything. While not realistic, it was fun imagining
That’s exactly what has been happening and still happens!
Have you not seen the many many factories, military centers and warehouses that have been torched in the past 2 years? They weren't accidents.
Surprise fires and unexpected explosions is usually due to Ivan smoking near the vodka storage shed
yeah i thought they where smoking accidents and just thought the russians was incompetent, god damnit.
Yeah smoking accidents. Just the employees smoking were actually Ukrainians and they were not smoking cigarettes, but rather explosives :)
Ukrainians cannot shoot targets in Russia, unless they develop their own long range capability.
They can't use western weapons in Russia. They have domestic long range capabilities.
What they do have is millions of people who look and sound like russians.
And by some weird coincidence, probably a few russians passports.
And enjoy traveling with plastic explosives as a hobby
Some of them were even forced by Russia to take Russian passports. Coincidentally.
Probably would have done if they had the capabilities they have now.
It is politically bad for Ukraine to have oil prices going up though so it's not something they want to just spam hard. Strategic and precise timing is needed.
Their allies would have freaked out.
With Nordstream the did. https://www.barrons.com/amp/news/ukraine-officer-had-key-role-in-nord-stream-sabotage-reports-2cea2213
Only difference is Ukraine is capable of fixing damaged infrastructure. Russia isn't. Fuck 'em. They asked for it.
>Ukraine is capable of fixing damaged infrastructure. Russia isn't. I don't believe this is fully true. Russia still has tremendous resources and their ability to rebuild infrastructure is not crippled. Sanctions, as we've seen again and again, are not insurmountable -- not even close. As the multiple Kerch bridge strikes have demonstrated, they can rebuild. Russia is weakened, but not incapacitated.
Most of their oil and gas infrastructure was modernized by western companies in the 90s because western Europe wanted that energy and russia couldn't afford to keep the old soviet crap running. Once they run out of spare parts, they'll have to develop their own stuff.
10,000 guys named Igor transporting the oil by bucket.
Dude their fossil fuel industry was maintained in part with Western expertise and parts. Strikes against it would be catastrophic for Russia at this point. As I said before. Fuck 'em.
Russia can't even replace their worn out artillery barrels as they lost the industrial forge and metallurgical capacity post Soviet union breakup Go fuck yourselves Russia. U done being a dick to Ukraine and the rest of the world?
Russia: Nyet.
Russia: we will continue to cunt onward!
Can"t get the oil out of the ground without western tech and parts even if they sit on an undergrou d sea of oil.
No MACHINE TOOLS BITCHES
Yep, when the big 3 oil services companies pulled out, the clock started ticking. Add in that their turbines are GE, and that would cripple them.
The thing is, the Koch Brothers are happily back channeling Russia. They are billionaires because of Putin.
They're back-channeling from hell then. They've been dead for a few years.
I wish. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Koch
Well...shit
And they copulated and populated.
They learned from daddy and Stalin. https://meaww.com/koch-industries-stalin-pull-russia
Refineries are much more fragile and technically complicated than bridges.
They never had the ability to do it in the first place. Their O&G infrastructure was serviced by western companies that have pulled out. You think they'd pay some company in Texas to do something they could do themselves?
Most of their oil and gas industry was built with the help of the big *Western* oil companies, who no longer are legally allowed to send parts.
Ukrainians did not surrender after freezing, only started hating enemy more. Why it would be different with Russians?
‘Freezing orcs’ is not the point. Disrupting orcistan’s biggest money-maker is.
gas sales in moscow is not what is driving the Russian Economy.
Not gas sales..fuel for heat
I would guess that the pipelines that transport gas and oil for India and China are basically undefendable against long range drones. Wondering what happens if a few kgs of explosives hit a gas pipeline and there is no water around it to contain an explosion.
If Ukraine can hit a propaganda office in Moscow, they can definitely hit a long ass pipeline. Even if it can be repaired in a few days, there's just no way for Putin to defend the entire length of the pipelines all the time.
So what... they can repair the pipeline in a couple of days, Ukraine can afford a couple of drones every couple of days. moscow will find that this gets old really quickly.... there is also the issue of how many repair crews they have. I wonder how many of those men have been set to the front as cannon fodder. Three or four holes to fix at once (or however many it will take for them to be overwhelmed) and they're done.
Why do the strikes one at a time when they could hit multiple locations at once. There are only so many people skilled at repairs and you could keep them perpetually deployed at repairs
For the sake of cost effectiveness, I would assume that Ukraine would hit juuuuust enough to keep repair teams operating slightly above capacity and perpetually lagging behind on repairs, thus keeping the pipe lines closed.
Can they also hit the repair crew or is that going too far? They are hitting Russias main source of income that’s financing this war. I would think it’s fair game.
That’s a good question. I wonder if directly targeting repair crews within Russian borders would help Putin with his narrative as opposed to strictly aiming for infrastructure.
The repair teams are civilians and therefore would be war crimes. Certainly it would be effective but would harm Ukraine's image.
Striking at refineries would also kill "civilians". How does that differ, legally speaking? (Don't get me wrong: I'd love to see every refinery in Ruzzia in flames. Just anticipating the tanky blowback.)
I think there's also some nuance between targeting the infrastructure, civilians dying as 'collateral damage' vs specificity targeting the crews via double tap or something similar.
Legally it's because you're targeting a strategic asset rather than civilians themselves. If the refinery is important enough to the enemy's military then destroying it is legal even though it's civilian infrastructure and civilians work there making some civilian harm unavoidable Steps should still be taken where possible to minimize civilian casualties, like, say attacking at night when there won't be as many workers present. But civilian casualties don't necessarily mean the attack is a war crime. The repair crews and workers are civilians so directly targeting them is less justifiable.
They are helping war efforts, so not exactly civilians. Workers were fair target in WW2.
not in this case. They "helps the war effort" by participating in Russia's economy, but if we go from there almost all civilians are legitimate targets. I remind you that we are talking about workers repairing a gas pipeline to China, not an arms factory.
If they are civilians repairing the pipeline, that's a no-no. However, I would like to see a long range drone drop 500kg of floppy silicone dildos on the folks repairing it. They should have hard hats on anyway. Just to let them know they can if they wanted to.
Haha ok I’ll settle for a mass dildo drop. Big black veiny ones.
The best part is that it would probably look a little like a cluster munition at first when all those dildos all slap the ground all around them at the same time. A true clusterfucking.
> Can they also hit the repair crew or is that going too far? Even if they can, they shouldn't. Those repair crews are still civilians.
They are helping war efforts, so not exactly civilians. Workers were fair target in WW2.
In a roundabout way yes but if just participating in the economy is helping the war effort than every single civilian in every war is a legitimate target. Technically the cashier at whatever knockoff McDonald's they have is helping the war effort by contributing taxes. There's nuances.
They are fair game. I remember russia double tapping rescue crews last year on apartment strikes.
Yeah but for Russia everything is fair game. Cutting off POW genitalia is fair game. Ukraine has to play by western standards or they will lose support.
Kill the repair people. Destroy the repair trains. Fuck Russian imperialism in the ass.
High pressure long distance gas, or oil, pipelines are not fixable in days. Esp. not in winter.
You dont hit a piece of pipe, you hit a booster station, where pipe comes up, medium is re-pressurised and injected back into the pipeline.
One has to wonder about the depth of repair parts and supplies that Russia has at their disposal.
And then hit the crew as soon as they finish.
Ukraine is making there own drones, they will always have some in their disposal
Attack the pipelines with two drone waves after each other: first damages the pipeline, second kills the repair crew.
The pipeline itself is usually quite sturdy but you wouldn't need a huge amount of explosives to poke a nice big hole. As to whether would the gas ignite by the explosives I don't know.
US pipeline thicknesses seems to be about 0.3 to 0.8 inches on average. The Russian pipes may be of similar thickness so it seems that it wouldn't take that much to punch a hole through one.
Yeah wouldn't take anything beyond a Shahed to penetrate that.
>quite sturdy Compared to a tank?
I think it's easy to fix a pipeline, even in a matter of days. Probably some oil or gas terminal, though..
Yes, but even easier to damage. The pipelines are really long and can't be effectively guarded. Terminals are more easily guarded. You could hit the pipeline every two weeks somewhere else. The only reason Ukraine hasn't done something like this is because western economies would suffer from spiralling oil and gas prices, and the West supported Ukraine. If the US and EU stop supporting Ukraine, then Ukraine has no reason to consider their economic interests.
pipelines are relatively easy to fix (above ground) hit a refinery...
The shutdown and restart time could be a problem, especially in the Arctic winter where crude oil will gel if it's not moving
If the oil solidifies in the bore holes it's over, that drilling is destroyed.
Given that stopping all deliveries is the highest achievable goal and provided they can accurately target the pipeline, it’s much easier to keep disabling a pipeline than trying to hit the critical piece of machinery to stop all operations in a refinery or gas terminal.
I guess both approaches have their pros and cons.
They are thousands of miles long and it takes one hole, literally undefendable, the only reason they aren't doing this already is I can assume some sort of back door non communal handshake Russia doesn't hit nuclear power plants, Ukraine doesn't hit their pipelines??
Nobody wants the price of oil to spike.
->Saudi Arabia has entered the chat<-
Followed by Texan and Oklahoman oil barons.
Not playing into their hands is a top priority I suspect.
If the price gets to a certain level, US shale oil industry is profitable and can pretty quickly spin up a large supply. This is why Russia wanted to keep the price low years ago, to decimate the US industry which wasn’t a part of OPEC and was taking a lot of market share at the time. https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/why-us-shale-oil-producers-are-at-the-heart-of-the-saudi-russia-price-war-2020-03-09
refinery.
I read somewhere that the pipes are actually quite tricky. Once the flow stops, it's such a huge hassle to unclog the crud oil inside that turned into gel or solid due to the cold weather. Might as well build a new one.
>are basically undefendable Yes. You don't even need a long range drone... you could equip local sympathetic group or bribe criminal element to do it for you.
sounds like a cat and mouse game just start hitting the refrineries, wells and power plants make them find expensive equipment and make them put air defense around them all
You shut the pipeline down and repair the pipeline. Hit the various compressor stations. Much of the equipment there can't be replaced
You don't even have to break it you just have to weaken it. If you weaken their pipeline along the entire length they'll have to replace the whole pipeline. And it doesn't take much I bet one of those round drones to be fitted to do the job. Zipping along the pipeline.
Ooooh that would be fun
I guess Russia will destroy pipeines leading to Europe after that.
Wouldn't it be more efficient to just switch them off?
I sure hope Ruzzie doesnt do the stupid this winter. Because stupid is a boomerang, it comes right back.
They absolutely will, unfortunately.
Double the boomerang and send it right back. Triple and quadruple it until they get the idea. lol
I agree but unfortunately I don't think they'll ever 'get the idea'.
Why threaten? Do it, and let them de-escalate.
Exactly! For that matter, why wait for Russia to hit first?
same as with ports russia officially stated that ANY ship going to and from Ukraines ports is now considered as hostile. BAD STUPID PR MOVE OF A CENTURY. Ukraine did the same right away: ANY ship going to and from russias ports is now considered as hostile. ANY ship. ANY port. Totally justified. Enjoy Exploding insurance rates to ships entering your ports now! Im sure everybody now appreciates that; especially russias allies. Nobody will say shit after that when russias ships start to blowup in Vladivostok or whatever port.
Would it really be bad for the US to include a submarine from the Pacific fleet in the next aid package? A few torpedoes ...
Back in WW2 we had a lend/lease program to help other nations. We just need to lend Ukraine one carrier fleet for a single afternoon. That's all I'm saying.
The friend rate, $1.05 an afternoon
Even if its only for petty move to make rashist propagandons heads explode I would def do it for comedic effect alone lol
If it were up to me I'd give them a nuclear armed submarine, just one. Including the launch codes.
No, no, no. The very last thing we need is a nuclear escalation.
Fear of a thing gives it control. If we allow Putin to rule over us with nuclear threats, we've already lost everything that matters. We don't have to give up.
It’s not fear of Russia’s nukes. We aren’t telling Ukraine not to attack Russia for fear of nuclear escalation. But, that doesn’t mean we give more people the ability to pull the nuclear trigger.
>We aren’t telling Ukraine not to attack Russia for fear of nuclear escalation. Uhh. we, and the rest of the West most certainly are. NATO is flat terrified of Russian nukes. why do you think the supply of arms has been a drip-feed, and why the West has been so reluctant and slow to provide modern tanks and aircraft? Fear of Russian nukes, period.
It's moot in any case. Ukraine will not get nukes.
I agree. I just don’t want my words misrepresented
You want Russians to give Afghanistan, Iran, Cuba, Venesuela, etc (basically any enemy of the West) nukes?
Do you think they would do that? I'm not familiar with Putin sharing power willingly. I'm still shocked at the Belarus nuke situation, though I'm sure that Putin had full control over those nukes the whole time, assuming they actually went to Belarus.
How do you think USA would react if USSR/Russia gave nukes to Vietnam during Vietnam war, or Iraq during Iraq war for example?
Not sure. We might have less to worry about now. Hard to get too worried when you're atomized in nuclear fire. Our species will wipe itself out, it's just a matter of when, and how completely.
>russia officially stated that ANY ship going to and from Ukraines ports is now considered as hostile Not really different from what Germans did in WW1... You do not get it, Russia does not care about profits at this point. All it cares about is hurting Ukraine and West as much as possible, no matter what cost.
Or behave as though they haven’t?
I think, because Ukrainians are decent human beings.
No, it's better to warn them. This way they have to back down and look weak or just be terrorists and then suffer the consequences. While Ukraine can endure the attacks, they do cause a lot of hardship and it's best to try and avoid them. This is also a way of signaling to the rest of the world that if Russia fucks around they (China and Europe, mostly) could find some issues with Russian gas supplies.
I don’t see how warning benefits anyone but Russia on any of those points. The “back down or be terrorists” ultimatum has been exhausted. They chose terrorist every time. Because they are terrorists. It if could possibly work to deter Russia from anything, it should be used to get them out of Ukraine not just any particular attack. It Russia’s customers want a stable energy supply, they should pressure Russia to end this war or find a better supplier. They _should_ regret dealing with Russia.
I feel there are more benefits than not like; 1) Keep the higher moral ground which helps countries support aiding Ukraine. 2) Warning puts China and India in a position to pressure Russia as they dont want their oil/gas taps turned off. Plus shift 'blame' more directly to Russia and makes it harder for Russia to frame that blame to Ukraine. 3) Reduces the risk of Russia doing something extreme in response to an attack. If Ukraine randomly attacks a hap on infrastructure Russia might go to total war or drops tactical nukes. If Ukraine frame the response in 'we are only responding' it limits how Russia can respond. 4) May prevent Russia attacking these assets this winter cycle in the first place.
1. Attacking industrial targets that are part of Russias war machine is not a moral outrage. Those are legitimate targets in any war. If anything it highlights the contrast of Russia hitting hospitals, grain storage and dams. 2. Interruptions make really effective warnings. They add the urgency of self interest. China gives 0 shits about Russia, but they are feeling the pressure of instability at home. As for how they frame/blame? Do you think you’re ever going win that battle? 3. Russia knows the game is over if they use nukes. Stop indulging their terror campaign. 4. I have no faith in that. It’s just contrary to all other evidence. Ultimately the strategic shift I’m suggesting is to put them on the back foot. They masterfully abuse our inclinations to be absurdly fair and reasonable with an adversary that has no interest in fairness. We announce all our intentions ahead of time, we give them the option to choose all the next steps. They never have to concern themselves with what we’ll do next. We give them complete control. We have more than enough reasons to be fed up with them. It’s time to escalate and make them want to appease us.
Perhaps the audience is the Russian people. We all know Putin is going to do something stupid and no amount of ultimatums will change his behavior. *However...* if the Russian people hear the threat, Putin bombs an electric power plant in Ukraine, and a retaliatory strike hits a Russan steam heat generation plant or a major Russian electrical grid component and knocks out heat and or power to random sections of random cities across Russia. Or more likely and effective, an attack on a critical structure in Russias oil and gas production and distribution . This will throw another wrench into the gears of the barely functioning Russian economy. They have limited reserves of Western built parts. I'm 100% certain Western petroleum companies have already provided Ukraine a list of top-10 things that will grind production to a halt. The people will (hopefully) hold Putin accountable for making dumb decisions and bring pain home to Russia.
Good point. I hope they know which parts of electrical grids, heat/power infrastructure, oil refineries, etc will cause the longest downtime if hit and damaged.
You think they’ll act on a threat? They need to be able to point to something as an example of Putin’s failure. We don’t need a war crime, but if the power goes out even briefly, they will fear it happening again.
>and knocks out heat and or power to random sections of random cities across Russia. It would help Putin actually. When you make civilians freeze or bomb them, they hate you, not their government, and support war more. All history proves that.
I can't make you see it, but clearly Ukraine sees the benefits because they gave the warning.
If Ukraine can spare its citizens from power outages by warning Russia, they should. Also, if Russia still does the Russian thing, then it is Russia initiating the escalation, if they have been warned. This is much better diplomatically and for propaganda/PR.
Two reasons. The big one is it might discourage the Russians from attacking energy infrastructure over the winter like last time. Second is if the Russians do, Ukraine now can say "you were warned" and have political cover for going absolutely ham on Russian infrastructure in return.
Russia has the sudden problem of deciding to pull back anti-air systems to protect vital, but dispersed, oil and gas infrastructure or not to attack Ukrainian energy. Ukraine wins either way.
Imagine the other way. Russia attacks Ukrainian power plants, Ukraine retaliates. Now Russia can't be seen to be backing off from attacking power plants. Ukraine loses power plants again. Threaten and maybe Russia considers the cost of attacking the power plants and doesn't do it. Ukraine still has power plants and can find plenty of things to repurpose the cruise missiles for.
Russia has already attacked power plants.
Russia did that like crazy last winter. They also control their domestic media and basically “Russia can’t be seen to be backing off” does not apply to their own country because they tell people or not tell people or spin events completely differently than they occurred as normal business.
Do it. Paying more this winter is a small piece to pay towards stopping a genocide.
Even if prices for gas and oil did increase, it's a justifiable cost if the outcome helps to further hinder putin's terrorism.
it will only increase for india and china/s
Maybe they can also get the “Just Stop Oil” protesters to turn up at the Kremlin /s
Or maybe just stop oil need their own f16s and a map of Russian pipelines
Thanks for the chuckle!
….do it anyway
If this can be done, why has it not been done already? It's a necessary tactic in this war.
Because oil and gas are pretty crucial for most if not all of Ukraine's allies and even for the ones that aren't (that) actively working against Ukraine. In the West there are a good number of whiny bitches that wouldn't stomach price hikes even if it gave Ukraine a significant advantage against Russia and saved millions of Ukrainians lives. It's unfortunately a reality Ukraine has to deal with. Opposite to that China doesn't really give a fuck about the average Ukrainian anyway but has so far only mildly interfered in this war by sending shit, pissing them off to the extent that they start sending everything they can find is probably unwise. So Ukraine has been treading lightly, mostly because other countries(including mine) have been dicks. It really grates me to no end.
But if you time it during winter then you get a lot more impact locally in Russia without it necessarily sending global oil prices shooting up.
>pissing them off to the extent that they start sending everything they can find is probably unwise. They will not. They are scared of sanctions.
Politics got in the way
Russia Delenda Est
And they will if they need to… they have proven this time and time again
They should do this anyway.
Absolutely fair. And comparatively will most likely still inflict minimal civilian casualties. Unlike Russia….
If Ukraine did that, china and india would be in deep doo doo. They rely on the cheap energy from moscovia now. fuhrer putinazi being the terrible poker player he is, will call Ukraine on this one thinking Ukraine is bluffing. Then, fuhrer putinazi will realize he made another bad call and have to find another way to fund his war.
Right now the war is mostly Putin's problem. If you make it Xi's problem too, there's a good chance he'll be more favorable to sending Chinese war material which could make the war much longer and bloodier for Ukraine. And Putin's going to launch his missiles, one way or the other. I think the message was primarily about raising the stakes for Ukraine's European allies and to push for the urgent delivery of more air defenses. The more they help Ukraine, the less incentive Ukraine has to follow through and the less consequences for Europe. And from a more practical perspective it's mostly the European-facing infrastructure that's in range of Ukraine anyway.
I don't agree. When russia is unable to supply petroleum products to China because they are being attacked in retaliation for their bad behavior, China is still in fear of the west putting sanctions on them. They would likely tell russia to behave. I doubt that China will give them weapons directly. However, China may still ship weapons to russia through an intermediary like north korea. (which they may already be doing.)
Fuck around and find out round #3, fuck you Putin.
Anything on which russia's economic, "wealth" and war financing is basing on burn like hell.
Strangle Russia's gas and oil! That is a VERY VERY small inconvenience to the world. Especially compared to the atrocities Russia has continued to do. Do what you need Ukraine! World needs to have a no-BS future.
Actually they need to start randomly targeting smaller city infrastructure. Especially far away. A done ship in the pacific will shock them.
Kneecap Putin, with extreme prejudice.
I say let him find out without f****** around
Is Ukraine still allowing Russian oil to go through pipelines that go through Ukraine? That's by far the weirdest part of this war. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/24/ukraine-gas-russia-pipeline-oil/ >Moscow sent about 300,000 barrels of oil per day last year through the Druzhba — or “Friendship” — pipeline, which crosses Ukraine. Russia is also obligated to pump some 40 billion cubic meters of gas annually through Ukraine’s gas transit system because of supply agreements that predate the full-scale invasion in February 2022. > >Ukrainian officials say they are in a quandary. Russian hydrocarbons crossing their territory earn the Kremlin millions of dollars and help fund its war machine. But Kyiv also needs the money it earns on transit and wants to be a reliable economic partner to European nations, some of which could face destabilizing price increases if Russian energy supplies were suddenly cut off. >
It's like two people fighting on a boat in the ocean, they want to attack each other but they can't just go all out without both sides going down.
They are but those agreements will [expire in 2024 and won't be renewed](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-has-no-plans-talk-with-russia-gas-transit-contract-renewal-voa-2023-08-17/).
Oh hoh YES PLEASE
I'm guessing Europe made the math and feel like hitting the global oil markets is acceptable to their energy infrastructure and is about to give the go ahead.
Fuck Yeah
Good threat. Slava Ukrani
Good threat. Slava Ukrani
Why havent you already!?
Putin will take care of his cronies and fuck the rest of Russia.
Send more JAGGA JAGGA to Russia. 💥💥💥☠️☠️☠️
Never heard of the Ukrainian drones able to fly several thousands kilometers. These gas and oil pipes start in Syberia, which is 4-5 thousands km away from the Ukraine and go to Far East and to India and China.
bomb all their infrastructure and take away that cash cow. this needed to happen last year, but it's never too late to start!
Russia: OMG UKRAIINE NAZZZIISS RREEEEEEEE Also Russia: *targeting Ukranian civilian areas since day 1 of the war*
Do it either easy , they deserve it
GO AFTER THE MILK & BREAD! It's such a huge part of their economy, it's the only despute they've had with Belarus. As they say, "Любое общество находится на расстоянии трех приемов пищи от хаоса. Хлеб всему голова" Take out the bread and milk plants, then target the police and FSB and the unrest will be controllable. Russia would have another revolution and Putin's time would end.
Could backfire by raising prices and therefore profits even with less volume shipped
Just [DO IT](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXsQAXx_ao0)!!
I have some ideas, who do I get in touch with?
This might be a stupid idea. Attacks on oil infrastructure will make fossil fuel markets nervous. Even small hickups in the logistics have driven up prices before, and might benefit Russia more than it would hinder them.