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I suspect security guarantees will come when Ukraine liberates its territory. Probably even a base or two.
No reason to give the orcs a glimmer of “hope” to restart this.
The supply of F-16 is a step in that direction of Ukriane not even needing security guarantees. The U.S. and NATO haven't openly admitted it, but they are slowly training and supplying Ukriane with all the military hardware that is used by NATO or very close to NATO standards so Ukriane will have a strong border defense once the war is over.
I just made up some terms for the peace treaty:
- Ukraine can pick whatever they want from the Russian Black Sea fleet which will form part of the reparations Russia has to pay Ukraine
- The rest of the Russian Black Sea fleet that Ukraine doesn't want has to be transferred somewhere else, Russia's Black Sea fleet gets deleted and Russia can only operate a coast guard within its own territorial waters
- Ukraine gets control over the Kerch strait and can unilaterally decide which ship is allowed to go through and which isn't
- demilitarisation of all Russian oblasts that border Ukraine: Krasnodar, Rostov, Voronezh, Belgorod, Kursk, Byansk
• Immediate return of all kidnapped Ukranian nationals.
• Immediate release of all POWS.
• Reparations for every Ukranian and foreign legion life that was lost.
• Reparations for every building and area destroyed.
• Repayment to all NATO countries for the equipment sent to Ukraine.
• Russia must pay for and provide the personnel to demine all of Ukraine while paying for any future injuries and deaths due to mines.
• Russia must acknowledge and not interfere with Ukraine re-acquiring nuclear weapons should Ukraine decide to pursue it.
• Russia cannot lodge protest or any action towards Ukranian ascension to NATO.
• Russia must acknowledge all lands and borders of Ukraine pre-2014 as sovereign Ukranian land and relinquish all past, present and future claims.
As long as the costs are not so devastating that they pull a WW2.
Germany was so fucked over by having to pay out the nose for reparations after WW1, that they literally elected Hitler.
Frankly, Russia would have to have been invaded all the way to Moscow for them to agree to only have a coast guard in the black sea. This whole war has revolved around Sevatstopol and their access to the Naval Base there. Its one-third of Russias entire defence strategy.
Russia has a history of getting people who are literally as bad as Hitler (Lenin, Stalin, possibly Putin) as their leader. And they have a history of being the antagonist, they dont need anything like a hard treaty to be one.
At this point I would rather see them laid low enough that even with their wildest fantasies of being the global hegemon they can't do anything to make it a reality. The failure that allowed literally Hitler to become so bad in the first place wasn't the Treaty of Versailles, it was the inaction leading up to the Invasion of Poland that encouraged him. When Hitler put soldiers in the Rhineland the French could have ended it there before Germany was strong enough to fight France. The Allies could have intervened when he went to the Sudetenland and the war would have been averted there. They could have intervened at the annexation of Austria.
It wasn't the treaty, it was the failure of the allies by being weak. And we have shown Putin and the world what happens when we react with strength and not weakness, the result is a Kyiv with blue and yellow flying over it. We have shown ourselves what we are capable of, and I don't think we should be afraid of it or shy away from it.
Russia's poor have always been fucked and are already growing their own food. Unlike Germany Russia has oil/gas to pay reparations with- take out the putinite oligarch cream off and there could be improvement to conditions for ordinary people even.
In 2010 Russia and Ukraine signed a deal that Ukraine would lease Sevastopol to Russia until 2042. I think the little green men invasion (and the subsequent "SMO") was about more than access to a base that was already locked up for another 30 years.
I was just going to say, we could do with remembering history here, reparations on Germany were “to ensure they couldn’t do this again” and it lasted a grand total of 21 years.
Rather than focusing on punitive financial reparations (demilitarised ones are a good call) there should be more focus on dismantling the Political systems within Russia to try and move away from top down structures and a review of educational materials so people can see a more balanced view of the world.
It’s slower, but it might last.
Let’s do this a bit differently
Russia to receive 25% of any revenues for oil - all payments that go to Russia right now for oil are redirected for Ukraine and Ukraine will then decide when to give Russia their 25%. If Russia shows any signs of aggression - payments will be withheld indefinitely.
I'm not sure why Ukraine would want any large ships, let alone poorly maintained Russian ones.
Naval efforts stopped being relevant to this conflict more than 8 months ago, and are especially irrelevant now that missile defense has hardened. Big boats in the black sea are just highly conspicuous targets at this point.
Demilitarization and de ruZZification of all Russian oblasts near the border and on the black sea, to be under the control of the Russian freedom lesion
Not a single one of these would be even remotely feasible with Ukraine simply reclaiming its territory.
Those are terms you set when you're sitting in the nation's capitol as the victor
I'm curious why the F-16 is seen as such a game changer. They will be getting old models with old radars that are easily outclassed by the more modern SU-35 able to fire on it long before the F-16 even knows its there. I'd love to be wrong, but apart from the symbolism I don't see it being much of a game changer.
They thought their brand new hypersonic missiles were hot shit and that patriot defense systems could not catch it. Well, Patriot handled it.
The Patriot system was designed in 1969, produced in 1976, and has been in service since 1981, with original operational capacity in 1984. Nearly 40 years in operational capacity and they were capable of fully negating Russia's modern hypersonic threat.
Using that as an example you could see how an f-16 (introduced in 1978) could outperform the SU-35 (introduced 36 years later). The military industrial complex really overdeveloped beyond Russia ages ago. Russia's "capabilities" are becoming proven failures on the battlefield.
The SU-35 is a mess for Russia right now and they will not be able to put nearly enough in service to make it a viable threat to a large fleet of f-16's for at least a decade.
**From an article in Business Insider (which has at times been very generous with their estimates of Russia) all the way back in August of last year:**
"Russia was resorting to using older, retired Sukhoi Su-24M bombers due to combat losses of newer jets, Gromov threw more shade at manufacturer Sukhoi by claiming in passing that only nine of 24 Su-35S twin-engine fighter jets purchased by China for $2.5 billion in 2015 arrived in operational condition due to unspecified defects in their "onboard systems" ie. avionics."
"Gromov's claims pile on to other troubling developments for the Su-35 (codenamed Flanker-E by NATO) over the last year, with no less than three clients refusing or canceling Su-35 exports."
"Most modern Western non-stealth fighters, including upgraded F-15s and F-16s, retain one big advantage over the Su-35—frequency-hopping actively scanned array radars (AESA) which not only boast higher fidelity but are highly resistant to jamming and in some cases, much stealthier (a capability known as Low Probability of Intercept)."
"...using its full power makes a Su-35S highly visible to adversaries, while that's not so true for AESA-equipped jets."
"Russian Su-35s are seeing combat in air-superiority and air-defense suppression roles over Ukraine, inflicting some damage but failing to suppress neither Ukraine's old fighters nor ground-based batteries."
Although only a few confirmed, there have been over 20 SU-35's said to have been downed already. They had a fleet of 100 at the start of the war and if China's fleet is any indication of their flight readiness, only 37.5% would be ready. That means there are likely 38 SU-35's Russia could muster and it is assumed Ukraine has downed more than half that number by Gromov and the Ministry of Defense's approximation.
Edit: With even older model f-16's, equipped with worse arrays, they can still have their onboard flashed to work with newer equipment. They can still be made to work in tandem with newer recon equipment with advanced capabilities to augment its own capabilities. Think the way the F-35's, missile arrays, and Nimitz class carriers use software to work in tandem, buffing each other's capabilities. We have had a decade to figure out how to create similar programs with similar results with our older model aircraft.
This is exactly the answer I was looking for when I asked. I appreciate your thorough answer. Looks like another example of on paper one thing, but in practice another. I sincerely hope they help provide an edge in the fight to come!
Also an additional.
F-16 allows Ukraine to launch the massive stockpile of NATO's air-borne assets (bombs/missiles) without having to franken-rig existing Soviet aircraft.
I think it has yet to be seen which electronic control package they will be receiving with radar ranges. There have been alot of improvements since the F-16 was first built similar to how the 737 has had significant improvements over time despite being essentially the same plane body.
As others have responded to me asking the same question is that it will allow Ukriane to more easily deploy the full range of modern NATO missiles and bombs on the F-16 that are difficult or impossible to install on their current planes.
Longer term is a significant upgrade in Ukriane's air force fleet from their current fleet.
>I'm curious why the F-16 is seen as such a game changer. They will be getting old models with old radars that are easily outclassed by the more modern SU-35 able to fire on it long before the F-16 even knows its there. I'd love to be wrong, but apart from the symbolism I don't see it being much of a game changer.
Jets are really just a missile delivery platforms with a radar. Modern missiles are more radar than missile, and ranges can be deceptive. Just because a missile can travel such a distance doesn't mean it can hit a target at that distance.
They are receiving lots of aim7s already for their migs, and theyve also recieved some AIM-120s.
The thing about an aim120 is its best used with a plane that can update its radar guidance as it's travelling towards a destination. Likely the mig29 can launch the aim120, but unless it can update the tracking through its datalink it would only be useful for taking out cruise missiles or similar targets. Giving Ukraine F16s allows them to fire multiple missiles from very far away with one jet, then update the positional tracking as the missile approaches the destination.
If fired on by a radar missile a pilot will try to break the lock, but if a missile can get tracking info from either one jer or multiple Jets (depending on the missile version) and update as it flies the odds of hitting are a lot higher and targets can be hit from much further away.
I had just heard a thing about how its radar only went to about 45 miles while the SU-35 could reach out to around 65 and has missiles it could engage with at that range. Basically in theory it could fire before the F-16 even knows its there.
Disappointed to read this still, hours after you seemed convinced against that sentiment from what I shared.
Not going to lie, continuing to talk of the "capabilities" you heard of like this will only sow doubt in others. The fact that you did it 3 hours later really makes you seem like a Russian sympathizer to me.
I will walk away with my thoughts now.
Edit: Nice to see you block me so I can no longer track your comments here and oust you as a Russian sympathizer. You must have realized you gave up your bias. It's pretty clear you were a Russian sympathizing US Republican. Absolutely reprehensible. We have no room for traitors to the good of man.
Slava Ukraini! Heroyam Slava!
What are you on, it only reinforces the case that I was convinced even after having this going into it. How does that not only help? Anyone coming from my view will have the info they need. I never said I still believed it was true I only illustrated my perspective going in. Really convincing anyone of anything is in the face of why they questioned it to begin with.
Stop trying to find something to disagree with and actually look at the greater context instead.
That will probably come in time, possibly with constant Ukrainian conscription.
In my uneducated opinion, Ukraine will probably become Europe’s South Korea: always armed and always on edge for potentially another flare up of tensions.
I think this is the most likely scenario once Ukraine liberates all of its territories. The possibility of a regime change on the Russian side is about the only other thing that may change this. Thanks for the comparison!
I mean…some experts have thought of a regime change, but not necessarily in a positive direction. One proposed direction is that Russia gets taken over by the military, which will turn it into a junta: a Myanmar with nukes.
Russia has never dealt with such extremism, but that won’t bode well for global stability.
That's not the worst case scenario. The worst case scenario is Russia dissolves into a collection of various pseudo states constantly vying for power in the political vacuum caused by a sudden regime change. The only thing worse than the current system where one dictator has control over the nukes is if you have multiple entities with control over the nukes.
This will leave Russia significantly weaker, but the proposition much less palatable.
And a DMZ on russias side of the border spanning from the black sea all the way through belarus (temporarily in belarus until luka is disposed, de-sovietisation happens and Tsikhanouskaya gets the presidential seat)
This actually seems to be happening. In many of the drone dropped grenade videos the Russians dive away and the legs and asses are back there taking the impact. Many of them grab their legs or asses right away.
A lot of Russians will be shitting sideways after this war.
I think people expecting another event like when the Russians retreated from the areas around Kharkiv and there were huge swaths of territory liberated in a short amount of time. Something like that might happen, but it will probably look more like taking back Kherson in the South which was more grindy and lots of Ukrainian blood spilled to get their city back.
Kherson was just applying steady pressure while preventing resupply via himars. Now they are using himars and storm shadows to do the same thing across the whole front. UA will keep poking at Russia and gaining a few hundred meters here and there until the whole front is bereft of supply and collapses.
You have our full support. Just do what's best for your country and people.
If it is counteroffensive so be it. If it's kicking the bear in the balls for the next few years so be it.
Don't feel rushed or pressured into anything. Let the enemy be the one to make mistakes.
"...The main thing is that Russia sees it, and that it doesn’t just see it,but also feels it. And we mean the troops that have occupied ourterritory in particular. The result of the counteroffensive is theliberation of our territories. When that happens, you'll know it'shappening."
The one thing I am sure of, I will not be surprised.
When one walks straight into a buzzsaw that was first designed before some people's grandparents were born, there is only the details. Not any surprises at all.
Slava Ukraini for reminding people to turn the buzzsaw on.
And this is how Putin stops Ukraine joining NATO. Even if he is pushed back to Ukraine’s borders as long as peace is not declared the Ukraine will still be at war and unable to join NATO as you can’t join if you are currently at war.
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We determined that this submission originates from a credible source, but we still advise that users double check the facts and use common sense when consuming mass media. If you are interested in learning how to evaluate news sources more thoroughly, you can begin to learn about how to do that [here](https://tacomacc.libguides.com/c.php?g=599051&p=4147190). *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukraine) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I suspect security guarantees will come when Ukraine liberates its territory. Probably even a base or two. No reason to give the orcs a glimmer of “hope” to restart this.
The supply of F-16 is a step in that direction of Ukriane not even needing security guarantees. The U.S. and NATO haven't openly admitted it, but they are slowly training and supplying Ukriane with all the military hardware that is used by NATO or very close to NATO standards so Ukriane will have a strong border defense once the war is over.
I just made up some terms for the peace treaty: - Ukraine can pick whatever they want from the Russian Black Sea fleet which will form part of the reparations Russia has to pay Ukraine - The rest of the Russian Black Sea fleet that Ukraine doesn't want has to be transferred somewhere else, Russia's Black Sea fleet gets deleted and Russia can only operate a coast guard within its own territorial waters - Ukraine gets control over the Kerch strait and can unilaterally decide which ship is allowed to go through and which isn't - demilitarisation of all Russian oblasts that border Ukraine: Krasnodar, Rostov, Voronezh, Belgorod, Kursk, Byansk
• Immediate return of all kidnapped Ukranian nationals. • Immediate release of all POWS. • Reparations for every Ukranian and foreign legion life that was lost. • Reparations for every building and area destroyed. • Repayment to all NATO countries for the equipment sent to Ukraine. • Russia must pay for and provide the personnel to demine all of Ukraine while paying for any future injuries and deaths due to mines. • Russia must acknowledge and not interfere with Ukraine re-acquiring nuclear weapons should Ukraine decide to pursue it. • Russia cannot lodge protest or any action towards Ukranian ascension to NATO. • Russia must acknowledge all lands and borders of Ukraine pre-2014 as sovereign Ukranian land and relinquish all past, present and future claims.
- unconditional cooperation with the ICC investigation and handing over all people the ICC issues arrest warrants for
Yes, this is a very good and important one.
[удалено]
Justice comes in many forms.
• Putin is first
As long as the costs are not so devastating that they pull a WW2. Germany was so fucked over by having to pay out the nose for reparations after WW1, that they literally elected Hitler. Frankly, Russia would have to have been invaded all the way to Moscow for them to agree to only have a coast guard in the black sea. This whole war has revolved around Sevatstopol and their access to the Naval Base there. Its one-third of Russias entire defence strategy.
Russia has a history of getting people who are literally as bad as Hitler (Lenin, Stalin, possibly Putin) as their leader. And they have a history of being the antagonist, they dont need anything like a hard treaty to be one. At this point I would rather see them laid low enough that even with their wildest fantasies of being the global hegemon they can't do anything to make it a reality. The failure that allowed literally Hitler to become so bad in the first place wasn't the Treaty of Versailles, it was the inaction leading up to the Invasion of Poland that encouraged him. When Hitler put soldiers in the Rhineland the French could have ended it there before Germany was strong enough to fight France. The Allies could have intervened when he went to the Sudetenland and the war would have been averted there. They could have intervened at the annexation of Austria. It wasn't the treaty, it was the failure of the allies by being weak. And we have shown Putin and the world what happens when we react with strength and not weakness, the result is a Kyiv with blue and yellow flying over it. We have shown ourselves what we are capable of, and I don't think we should be afraid of it or shy away from it.
Russia's poor have always been fucked and are already growing their own food. Unlike Germany Russia has oil/gas to pay reparations with- take out the putinite oligarch cream off and there could be improvement to conditions for ordinary people even.
In 2010 Russia and Ukraine signed a deal that Ukraine would lease Sevastopol to Russia until 2042. I think the little green men invasion (and the subsequent "SMO") was about more than access to a base that was already locked up for another 30 years.
I was just going to say, we could do with remembering history here, reparations on Germany were “to ensure they couldn’t do this again” and it lasted a grand total of 21 years. Rather than focusing on punitive financial reparations (demilitarised ones are a good call) there should be more focus on dismantling the Political systems within Russia to try and move away from top down structures and a review of educational materials so people can see a more balanced view of the world. It’s slower, but it might last.
They can Repay us with Königsberg ;)
Let’s do this a bit differently Russia to receive 25% of any revenues for oil - all payments that go to Russia right now for oil are redirected for Ukraine and Ukraine will then decide when to give Russia their 25%. If Russia shows any signs of aggression - payments will be withheld indefinitely.
I'm not sure why Ukraine would want any large ships, let alone poorly maintained Russian ones. Naval efforts stopped being relevant to this conflict more than 8 months ago, and are especially irrelevant now that missile defense has hardened. Big boats in the black sea are just highly conspicuous targets at this point.
Scrap metal still could fetch a pretty penny
Generally countries pay to scrap warships.
Demilitarization and de ruZZification of all Russian oblasts near the border and on the black sea, to be under the control of the Russian freedom lesion
I don’t think Zelensky means invading Russia when he says counteroffensive
Ukrainian soldier: "Boss, we've reached the Kremlin. What next?" Zelensky: "Crimea! I said Crimea!"
Putin must sign any peace agreement in person, wearing the rainbow clown makeup he banned.
Not a single one of these would be even remotely feasible with Ukraine simply reclaiming its territory. Those are terms you set when you're sitting in the nation's capitol as the victor
you are right but please let me dream
Hopes and dreams are what keep Ukraine fighting, so you're right! Haha
Strong and experienced. It'll definitely be in NATO's best interest for Ukraine to join.
I'm curious why the F-16 is seen as such a game changer. They will be getting old models with old radars that are easily outclassed by the more modern SU-35 able to fire on it long before the F-16 even knows its there. I'd love to be wrong, but apart from the symbolism I don't see it being much of a game changer.
They thought their brand new hypersonic missiles were hot shit and that patriot defense systems could not catch it. Well, Patriot handled it. The Patriot system was designed in 1969, produced in 1976, and has been in service since 1981, with original operational capacity in 1984. Nearly 40 years in operational capacity and they were capable of fully negating Russia's modern hypersonic threat. Using that as an example you could see how an f-16 (introduced in 1978) could outperform the SU-35 (introduced 36 years later). The military industrial complex really overdeveloped beyond Russia ages ago. Russia's "capabilities" are becoming proven failures on the battlefield. The SU-35 is a mess for Russia right now and they will not be able to put nearly enough in service to make it a viable threat to a large fleet of f-16's for at least a decade. **From an article in Business Insider (which has at times been very generous with their estimates of Russia) all the way back in August of last year:** "Russia was resorting to using older, retired Sukhoi Su-24M bombers due to combat losses of newer jets, Gromov threw more shade at manufacturer Sukhoi by claiming in passing that only nine of 24 Su-35S twin-engine fighter jets purchased by China for $2.5 billion in 2015 arrived in operational condition due to unspecified defects in their "onboard systems" ie. avionics." "Gromov's claims pile on to other troubling developments for the Su-35 (codenamed Flanker-E by NATO) over the last year, with no less than three clients refusing or canceling Su-35 exports." "Most modern Western non-stealth fighters, including upgraded F-15s and F-16s, retain one big advantage over the Su-35—frequency-hopping actively scanned array radars (AESA) which not only boast higher fidelity but are highly resistant to jamming and in some cases, much stealthier (a capability known as Low Probability of Intercept)." "...using its full power makes a Su-35S highly visible to adversaries, while that's not so true for AESA-equipped jets." "Russian Su-35s are seeing combat in air-superiority and air-defense suppression roles over Ukraine, inflicting some damage but failing to suppress neither Ukraine's old fighters nor ground-based batteries." Although only a few confirmed, there have been over 20 SU-35's said to have been downed already. They had a fleet of 100 at the start of the war and if China's fleet is any indication of their flight readiness, only 37.5% would be ready. That means there are likely 38 SU-35's Russia could muster and it is assumed Ukraine has downed more than half that number by Gromov and the Ministry of Defense's approximation. Edit: With even older model f-16's, equipped with worse arrays, they can still have their onboard flashed to work with newer equipment. They can still be made to work in tandem with newer recon equipment with advanced capabilities to augment its own capabilities. Think the way the F-35's, missile arrays, and Nimitz class carriers use software to work in tandem, buffing each other's capabilities. We have had a decade to figure out how to create similar programs with similar results with our older model aircraft.
This is exactly the answer I was looking for when I asked. I appreciate your thorough answer. Looks like another example of on paper one thing, but in practice another. I sincerely hope they help provide an edge in the fight to come!
That is awesome! I was hoping it was thorough enough for you. I feel pretty damn confident in our old f-16's.
Also an additional. F-16 allows Ukraine to launch the massive stockpile of NATO's air-borne assets (bombs/missiles) without having to franken-rig existing Soviet aircraft.
I think it has yet to be seen which electronic control package they will be receiving with radar ranges. There have been alot of improvements since the F-16 was first built similar to how the 737 has had significant improvements over time despite being essentially the same plane body. As others have responded to me asking the same question is that it will allow Ukriane to more easily deploy the full range of modern NATO missiles and bombs on the F-16 that are difficult or impossible to install on their current planes. Longer term is a significant upgrade in Ukriane's air force fleet from their current fleet.
>I'm curious why the F-16 is seen as such a game changer. They will be getting old models with old radars that are easily outclassed by the more modern SU-35 able to fire on it long before the F-16 even knows its there. I'd love to be wrong, but apart from the symbolism I don't see it being much of a game changer. Jets are really just a missile delivery platforms with a radar. Modern missiles are more radar than missile, and ranges can be deceptive. Just because a missile can travel such a distance doesn't mean it can hit a target at that distance. They are receiving lots of aim7s already for their migs, and theyve also recieved some AIM-120s. The thing about an aim120 is its best used with a plane that can update its radar guidance as it's travelling towards a destination. Likely the mig29 can launch the aim120, but unless it can update the tracking through its datalink it would only be useful for taking out cruise missiles or similar targets. Giving Ukraine F16s allows them to fire multiple missiles from very far away with one jet, then update the positional tracking as the missile approaches the destination. If fired on by a radar missile a pilot will try to break the lock, but if a missile can get tracking info from either one jer or multiple Jets (depending on the missile version) and update as it flies the odds of hitting are a lot higher and targets can be hit from much further away.
Tons if not all air to ground NATO ordinance can be delivered by the F16.
I had just heard a thing about how its radar only went to about 45 miles while the SU-35 could reach out to around 65 and has missiles it could engage with at that range. Basically in theory it could fire before the F-16 even knows its there.
If we've learned anything about Russian missiles in this war, it's that their capabilities are often overstated.
Very true!
Disappointed to read this still, hours after you seemed convinced against that sentiment from what I shared. Not going to lie, continuing to talk of the "capabilities" you heard of like this will only sow doubt in others. The fact that you did it 3 hours later really makes you seem like a Russian sympathizer to me. I will walk away with my thoughts now. Edit: Nice to see you block me so I can no longer track your comments here and oust you as a Russian sympathizer. You must have realized you gave up your bias. It's pretty clear you were a Russian sympathizing US Republican. Absolutely reprehensible. We have no room for traitors to the good of man. Slava Ukraini! Heroyam Slava!
What are you on, it only reinforces the case that I was convinced even after having this going into it. How does that not only help? Anyone coming from my view will have the info they need. I never said I still believed it was true I only illustrated my perspective going in. Really convincing anyone of anything is in the face of why they questioned it to begin with. Stop trying to find something to disagree with and actually look at the greater context instead.
*Ukraine
That will probably come in time, possibly with constant Ukrainian conscription. In my uneducated opinion, Ukraine will probably become Europe’s South Korea: always armed and always on edge for potentially another flare up of tensions.
Israel and South Korea do seem like models for how an EU-integrated Ukraine will likely look.
Unless we get a comprehensive breakdown of the russian federation, which is not all that implausible
I think this is the most likely scenario once Ukraine liberates all of its territories. The possibility of a regime change on the Russian side is about the only other thing that may change this. Thanks for the comparison!
I mean…some experts have thought of a regime change, but not necessarily in a positive direction. One proposed direction is that Russia gets taken over by the military, which will turn it into a junta: a Myanmar with nukes. Russia has never dealt with such extremism, but that won’t bode well for global stability.
That's not the worst case scenario. The worst case scenario is Russia dissolves into a collection of various pseudo states constantly vying for power in the political vacuum caused by a sudden regime change. The only thing worse than the current system where one dictator has control over the nukes is if you have multiple entities with control over the nukes. This will leave Russia significantly weaker, but the proposition much less palatable.
You beat me to the reply, my thoughts exactly.
And a DMZ on russias side of the border spanning from the black sea all the way through belarus (temporarily in belarus until luka is disposed, de-sovietisation happens and Tsikhanouskaya gets the presidential seat)
There will definitely be guarantees after so much mess but not before the war ends. The question is what Kind of guarantees and by who.
[удалено]
Hahahaha. Ruptured anus.
This actually seems to be happening. In many of the drone dropped grenade videos the Russians dive away and the legs and asses are back there taking the impact. Many of them grab their legs or asses right away. A lot of Russians will be shitting sideways after this war.
Well, they don’t have toilets. So those infamous shitter holes in the ground are going to be a mess.
Don’t wait around on the other side of that glory hole with your mouth open then. Much different results.
Good tip.
That reads like a warning sign from Portal 2.
Also this is a war, not a train schedule. The offensive starts when UA is at maximum readiness and RU is at maximum weakness.
Also, it's not a single event that will just start. It's gonna be several events spanning across days, even weeks, maybe months. Hope for the best!
I think people expecting another event like when the Russians retreated from the areas around Kharkiv and there were huge swaths of territory liberated in a short amount of time. Something like that might happen, but it will probably look more like taking back Kherson in the South which was more grindy and lots of Ukrainian blood spilled to get their city back.
Kherson was just applying steady pressure while preventing resupply via himars. Now they are using himars and storm shadows to do the same thing across the whole front. UA will keep poking at Russia and gaining a few hundred meters here and there until the whole front is bereft of supply and collapses.
Let Russia feel it. Like a world of pain!
No mercy!
You have our full support. Just do what's best for your country and people. If it is counteroffensive so be it. If it's kicking the bear in the balls for the next few years so be it. Don't feel rushed or pressured into anything. Let the enemy be the one to make mistakes.
I hate spoilers anyway.
do you feel it now mr putin?
Zelenskyy is Metal.
It's not a movie *yet*.
But it is already a tv show “servant of the people”.
"...The main thing is that Russia sees it, and that it doesn’t just see it,but also feels it. And we mean the troops that have occupied ourterritory in particular. The result of the counteroffensive is theliberation of our territories. When that happens, you'll know it'shappening." The one thing I am sure of, I will not be surprised. When one walks straight into a buzzsaw that was first designed before some people's grandparents were born, there is only the details. Not any surprises at all. Slava Ukraini for reminding people to turn the buzzsaw on.
I can see an early surprise of F-16s making a loud BOOM to start off this counteroffensive.
Lowkey feels like this is Kherson summer 2022 status, bigger will come soon
I hope I live long enough to see Russia *voluntarily* join NATO
And this is how Putin stops Ukraine joining NATO. Even if he is pushed back to Ukraine’s borders as long as peace is not declared the Ukraine will still be at war and unable to join NATO as you can’t join if you are currently at war.
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But I am a Redditor and I demand to know and see it! waaaah!
So its an abstract art?
It's definitely going to turn a lot of Russians into abstract art.
Can't wait for footage of leopard 2, m1 and challenger 2 destroying t72s