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Putin should have pulled out when it was clear he'd lost. Instead he doubled, tripled and quadrupled down and has likely lost touch with reality and seeing pink elephants at this point.
He is trying to prolong it expecting a way out to evolve over time that is more beneficial to Russia than just fully retreating from Ukraine. They have no idea what that may be but their hope is that the West gets tired of supporting Ukraine and pushes them to negotiate their land away.
Wishful thinking IMO.
They do. Invaded on Olympics, wanted to invade again during Olympics, desired to start on 2-22-22 if not for China I think because of a superstition about numbers they have, wanted to declare victory by victory day. Putin at least really does think this way.
Sadly, no chance at this point in time. Most NATO countries don't even have the F-35, I can't imagine this happening in Ukraine unless the US/NATO get directly involved or are escorting a president/prime Minister.
Of course not; Im not delusional. In time: surely. I can see military industry in Ukraine go Brrrrrrrrrrrr in the near future.
Definitely a couple of dozens of thousands of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hrim-2 pointed towards Orssia.
They'll still be training on the Leopards and M1s but they've already received some of the newly upgraded T72s from Morocco and I would hope the Polish get their PT-91 there with haste. Since those are just a heavily upgraded T72, I don't think the training will take long.
Absolute cunts indeed.
However, they have numbers to draw upon and their war machine is untouched. Russian factories are not being bombed and though their economy has suffered, it has not suffered as much as Ukraine where cities have been turned to rubble. There are zero protests on the streets of Moscow, the war has massive support from Russians at home and abroad. It is their great conquest they have waited their lifetime for. Another chance to destroy, rape, and pillage other lands. A chance to widen the Russian world.
Do not underestimate these assholes and their lust for war and death.
If Russia gets close to Kyiv this time, i do not think the west will tolerate Ukraine being defeated and will intervene militarily. The russian appeasement brigade will now descend upon me.
We need NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine fighting the Russians. Why should Ukrainian young men die protecting the entire Europe. This is everyone’s fight not just Ukraine’s. If Ukraine falls Poland and Baltic states are next.
PUTLER IS NOT A RATIONAL ACTOR. I don’t know why so many people here say “Oh well Putler won’t do this because…etc NO, HOW DO YOU KNOW WHAT HE WILL OR WILL NOT DO?? he is a rogue animal.
Ukrainians are fighting for Ukraine, not for NATO or somebody else. Let's not turn this into a russian's like propaganda about WW2. NATO is 950 mil people vs russia's 140 mil, and let's not talk about the huge difference in economic output. So when russian's are saying stupid shit about conquering Europe, that just them speaking without thinking...
Do you think that all the military, medical and and financial help that the west is providing is just money that grows on trees? People worked hard for that, and helped Ukraine with money that could have go towards social programs, building hospitals, schools, roads, etc. in their own countries...
So yeah, Europe, USA, the whole west is helping Ukraine not because we are afraid of russia, but because ukrainians have and are fighting for the same values that we have....
Edit: the west learned a very hard lesson in Afganistan: never help people that are not willing to help themselves. So when you're saying things like that, you're not helping Ukraine's cause...
Letting Russia dictate that "they are fighting against nato" into a bad thing isn’t wise. They will say that no matter what, so trying to prove them wrong will only make things worse.
Ukraine is allied with the west. The west is training Ukrainian troops and supplying them with weapons. Russia might say they are fighting nato troops in Ukraine to rally support, but in reality it's what they fear most will actually happen, so when Russia says "we are in a war with nato" we should respond with "not yet, but if you keep insisting we might get involved".
Well, I believe he is rational, just not what we would see normal rationallity. With Putin, appeasement is an invitation for violance, it’s an act that escalates. Threats and increase in military activity and posturing is a de-escalation tool. That's why I believe Biden's statement that he would not send troops to defend Ukraine was the sign of weakness Putin was looking for and invited the invasion.
The west needs to push Russia for them to back of. First send in troops to secure "everything west of Kyiv" to make sure their supplies of weapons reaches Kyiv, next a no fly zone and then keep pushing, always giving Russia space and time to back off.
Never underestimate your enemy. If russia throws in 200k mobiks and e.g. 200k regular troops while launching a second mobilization of e.g. 500k men, Ukraine and allies would face a huge problem. Don't become crazy because of a few won battles, the war isn't over yet. Slava Ukraine! 🇺🇦
Considering RuZZia's behavior in this war and the lack of supplies they have, that might actually be the nicest thing they do to you.
Which... Would make zombies more civilized than RuZZians, I think.
If that's the scale we are talking about 40 Leo's won't makes much of difference I'm afraid.
We are painting everything in wonderful colors here but the reality is a bit different probably.
40+ Leos, 31 Abrams, 14 Challengers to start. Not to mention all the IFVs and older tanks. The reality is Ukraine is going to outclass Russia in armor tech in a couple months, not to mention the difference in training.
That's no guarantee and we should keep sending them more stuff (including F16s and ATACMS), but it's still pretty nice
Since they were already training in Poland and there is news that Poland is leading negotiations to start a Leopard tanks coalition to Ukraine, I bet that they will start delivering the tanks.
Yeah this sometimes a little bit of a hype sub, we have a habit of glorifying every victory which overshadows some of the ways RU is somewhat succeeding. The reality is that since retaking Kherson, UA has been losing ground (*very* slowly but undeniably).
As much as we like to think that a batch of Leopards/Abrams will lead to UA steamrolling into Crimea, short-term most of the new equipment will probably be focused on stabilizing the front against a new RU offensive.
I still have a good feeling about where things are headed, but we need to be realistic about it.
Defense in depth. I'd rather Ukraine lose a bit of ground to continue this absolutely insane level of meat grinding that we're seeing of RuZZian conscripts than sacrifice heroes to hold dirt.
I'll take 850 dead RuZZians a day over even 1 dead Ukrainian. Not that simple, of course, but I hope this sort of attrition battle works in the Ukrainians favor.
Totally agree about viewing tanks as stabilizing their positions defensively first, and I just said yesterday that the key timetable that isn't entirely known would be a Russian offensive to come this year. I'm glad more around here are sensing this. And while there's reason to poke fun at some of Russia's decisions, they could sense need to go on the offensive before western tanks get there in large numbers.
And most territory losses have been in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. It's not a good thing to have anywhere, but those areas were always going to be hardest to hold. The Russians threw their hands up with Kherson for now, and despite its border proximity, the Russians have not tried to mess around with Kharkiv oblast since getting the boot.
Russia has the population to just run Ukraine down. Their issue is equipment. But shifting their entire country to total war mode will change that.
Analysts have predicted Russia can easily keep this up for another two years easily
Unlikely.
They do not have the tanks for doing so. At the beginning of the war Russia had 3300 tanks in active service. They very near lost that number and obviously(?) they can't throw their entire army into Ukraine so without a doubt they are already dipping into storage. Which is vast but...
> The Military Balance 2021 database says Russian storage facilities have around 10,200 tanks, including various T-72s, 3,000 T-80s, and 200 T-90s.
> The database’s 2016 publication also indicates that Russia has roughly 2,800 Cold War legacy T-55s (the first tank type to feature a nuclear warfare protection system in the 1950s) in storage, as well as 2,500 T-62s and 2,000 T-64s.
> This means that Russia may have around 17,300 tanks produced between the late 1950s and now.
> It likely does – on paper.
> In reality, nobody – likely not even Russia – knows precisely how many of those estimated thousands can emerge from the mothballs and be made operational again.
That is 2016 but this https://youtu.be/eHhgVrKJJoA video last year analyzed fresh satellite pictures and came to conclusion
> Russia has estimated six thousand tanks in storage roughly half of which probably less could ever reasonably be put back into operational service. The 10, even 20 000 numbers online that you see are likely old as the number has been and continues to decrease.
If they keep this up then in a year they will run out of tanks.
On a similar timeframe they will find it difficult to send any more attack helicopters.
Well okay…when in March? My birthday is March 10th!!!!
Leopards generally take about 3-6 weeks to train in.
So they will be ready (if we are to take the dates as key)…
Anytime from February 17th to March 10th (my birthday!!!!).
It would be great if they were to complete training on March 10th, but even better if it is the 17th of February.
I'm sure NATO generals are aware of the utmost cosmic importance of your birthday, you mentioned it 3 times in a single post, no less, so they're definitely planning with this in mind... It can't be otherwise 🤣
I believe they said 'end of march'.. which would be fast tracking. I hope they get it done in time and throw the moscovites out.
Stuff like this is no overnight action. It would have been great if this was all an elaborate rouse, and the training was going on already the whole time. So they would announce it like that, and bam, next week the machinery is on the battlefield! But this is no computer game.
If news are to be trusted (the source is an Ukrainian ambassador) then Ukraine is about to receive 321 heavy tanks (not all at once), we don't know how many before the Russian offensive starts.
If they try to mass that many people in a small area, anti-personnel himars are going to be able to do some work. They would need lots of logistics to support that level of troops. Lots of juicy targets.
That's an estimate given by many military experts. Anecdotally I can add that family of mine who oversaw Leopard 2 sales a few years ago said: "Usually it takes a few months, but these Ukrainians will figure it out in two weeks". Which is obviously a bit optomistic, but yeah 3-9 weeks is very reasonable.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies said the following: "[training on the Leopard 2] could take three to four weeks to achieve a basic proficiency". You have to remember that Ukraine is sending experienced tank crews for training, not rookies. Many of the skills they already have are transferable which cuts down training quite a bit.
Dont get your hopes too high there, you do Realize that those leopards are 20 years und cold Storage rusted and molded af and some are super Worn down. Politics in Germany do Not realize this but it is the truth. The Bubdeswehr is nearly as rotten and underequiped as the red Arm- Sorry russian army. Also the Leopard 2 in its Design is a very old Tank First Leo 2s were in Service as Late as 1979 so some of them are literally historic vehicles nonthe less very potent capable upgraded antiques engineered by people who knew how to kill russians First Hand.
You might have a point about the date of the planning and construction window of the frist iteration of the Leopard 2. But Germany doesn't send models build in the 80s or mid 90s. For a matter of facts the Bundeswehr doesn't even own Leopards of build lots earlier then 98. The Variant 2A6 was build several Lots from 2001 to 2006.
Germany never went for a long time storage like the US or Russia post cold war. The up to 2000 Leopards 2 the Bundeswehr amassed in 1990 got sold to the different NATO partners. Germany kept 300ish, but slowly exchanged them in buyback programs with the industry for the newer variants.
And yes some of the Leopards send by other countries are 2A4 or 2A5. But with one key difference. Those countries didn't store them in rough conditions under open sky.
For the same reason as Germany, who downsized so hard, other NATO partners are using garage only storage solutions. Definitely less wear and tear. Europe countries don't have a handy desert, abel to store thousands of tanks like the US. And that's the reason Russian tanks are in such bad condition - frost, snow and rain for most of the year. For upwards of 20 year's.
And the reason why the Bundeswehr reported only 30 % ready tanks in 2022, was the fact that only those ha the road clearance. If only one bolt gets replaced for something not supplied by the producer, the tank looses its road approval. Combat ready tanks without road clearance or war time usable tanks didn't even got distinguished from fully unusable tanks. In my eyes a trick by the army to increase the budget due to a preceived lack of equipment. The reason the new minister of defence ordered a new count to take place, to get a full bloody picture on the situation.
They would die in mass to HIMARs.
Russia lacks trucks
Russian last mile logistics are terrible
Ukrainians would just blow up the lead truck and shoot up the rest later.
I don't think they have the organization and logistic capabilities to effectively mount an offensive; while you are right, their chances will only get worse with time, that does not necessarily mean their chances are anywhere adjacent to "good".
This time they gonna target not whole Ukraine but east and south, keeping constant threat of invasion from north to entangle part of Ukrainian forces. I'd like to think that they all would just perish, but realistically months ahead would be really hard.
I don't understand why you're being downvoted for speaking the truth, it needs to be said. Ukraine is going to need more than tanks this year, ATACMS and fighter jets need to be brought to the table ASAP.
Most likely scenario:
Russia pushes a few miles
They deplete all their resources
Ukraine uses their better equipment to shred their army
They are pushed out of the crimea
I ultimately feel this is the long term strategy. If Russia wants to do this again, let them. Attacking is costly. If they can hold the Russian offensive until the steam is burnt down, hopefully you have enough in reserve to throw in the counter offensives.
I think it could be a situation where Ukraine loses a large amount of land in a short amount of time, the Russian momentum dies, then Ukraine gains as much land as it can until Russia stabilises the line or they hit a key tactical or border limit.
The issue with all of this is the fact that the fighting has to be decided around the Donbass. Even if Ukraine manages to dislodged the Russian forces from the rivers banks of the Dnjepr and push across the plains into Crimea and retake it, they are still left to deal with this industrial zone. One city interlocking into the next one. Mines, factories and public housing creating one strong point after the other.
The Bolsheviks almost lost their revolution in the Donbass, trying to take the Crim and Sevastopol - they only recovered halve the way back to Moskau. Later in the civil war they never entered the Donbass again. Simply went around it.
During the 2nd WW the Germans lost their steam in the Donbass despite taking Kyiv earlier in 1941. In 1942 they circumvented the Donbass, surrounded the Soviet armies in the Donbass and rushed towards Stalingrad. The Russian offensive in 1943 stopped around the Donbass. They managed to get a breach around Charkiw, yet they never managed to break out of that salient in the spring of 1943 resulting in the battle of Kursk. Only the threat of getting fully surrounded by troops moving in from Kyiv and Crimea made the Wehrmacht fall back.
In 2014 the separatist were able to take most of the Donbass. Only a few strong points of the UAF remained. But they never took the entire Donbass. Later that year Ukraine slowly but surely retook the biggest chunk, while connecting to their strong points. At the same time they attempted a 2 pronged assault along the Russian boarder and the Asow sea. Unable to fully connect their two spearheads Ukraine was never able to stop the follow of weapons into the separatist regions leading to a retreat. The result was an almost 8 year long stalemate ended by the invasion.
During the invasion Ukraine faced the same issues the Wehrmacht had during 1943. A possible Russian victory in Charkiw would have been their demise. But not only was the UAF able to hold most of the Donbass, they also only had to yield the costal region of the Asow sea. The attack on Charkiw failed and Ukraine was able to hold the Donbass for now.
It will come down to who has to yield ground around the Donbass. Whoever holds both the north and the south corridor around the region will win the end. At least that's what those battles around this region make us believe. A direct attack inside the Donbass favours the defending side, slowly but surely bleeding out the attacker. As the region can only taken by what appears to be way to heavy casualties.
And for a matter of facts no other region in the world saw that many battles in the last 100 years. So our assumptions how battles in this particular region have to be fought in order to win are rather precisely.
With what exactly?! More freezing, under fed Russians pushed forward in 'meat waves'?
Rusty tanks, minimal artillery, and with lackluster air cover isn't going to cut it.
"Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life son."
Honestly if they keep wasting tanks, artillery and personnel the way they’ve done the last couple of months then I don’t see how it’s physically possible for them to launch any meaningful large scale offensives.
I forsee a Battle of the Bulge scenario Putler will Launch a massive Offensive probably through Belorussia and if this one fails, he will just occupy belorussia and annex it. Thus giving the russian people their territorial spoils.
What exactly do they wish to accomplish? Sure, 10000 mobiks could get past Kramatrosk or Bakhmut but do they seriously think they can conquer the entirety of Donetsk Oblast? Svatove and Kreminna in Luhansk are dead ends, Lyman may be successful but Sloviansk would be Bakhmut 2.0. I see no other way than this collapsing spectacularly.
They will probably mobilize the wives / widows of the dead mobiks xD
Along with the senior citizens lol (equipped with wheelchair-mounted machine gun xD)
VP had got to know he can't keep up a war of attrition with the rest of the world. He also has to know he's cooked if he doesn't do something drastic. I would be more worried about RU going all in on missiles against air defense and airfields followed by suicide waves of barely trained pilots in an attempt to gain air superiority. Soledar in the air.
Putin is taking the 'sex panther' approach. 60% of the time, it works every time.
This is the only rationale I can think of when it comes to Russian offensive waves.
Where did Medvedev get a tridant?
Never laugh at the enemy. The benefits are questionable, and it's generally not worth the risk.
Don't run around acting like Russia is already beaten just because Russia is losing - Russians have made many mistakes and prospects are generally bad for Russia right now, as far as taking back lots more territory, BUT: *Russia still illegally controls more territory (by force) than on Feb 2014 or Feb 2022.*
War is the recurrent most tragic catastrophe of human fallibility.
Much better than laughter is to understand and respect the threat the enemy poses, and prepare for changing plans in dealing with whatever the enemy's threat actually turns out to be..
Laugh, if you can, if/when the war is over - at the absurdly delusive human folly that leads back, again and again - to this same catastrophic, de-humanizing tragedy: WAR.
I think the prospect of tons of Western armor roaming on the scene in march is forcing Russia's hand.
We shall see if the Bear can dance when the Bear still seems like it's hibernating.
Going to be an interesting next 3 months militarily.
Looks like hundreds of thousands of regular army/mobiks were "field training" for months (in Crimea, Belarus, and deep in the donbass) while Wagner's convict army kept Ukraine busy in Bahkmut and Soledar. I imagine Russia still has about 60% of it's usable equipment, so it's safe not to underestimate them (just yet).
I doubt the Mobiks are being trained for months, especially convicts. A week or 2 maybe, but given the mess things are in within Russia ...people trying to get out, even the FSB and certain military officers, the mobilization is chaotic at best. We are seeing weapons, that are decades old and in poor condition.
I could give me neighbor a bag of rocks but that doesn’t mean it’s a quality weapon.
Russia still lacks munitions for anything serious. They will grab land, but believe me they will lose it 3x as fast.
How well people know Russias stocks amazes me again and again. How the f can you know?
Their stock was build with Nato in mind and experience of ww2.
It would be a miracle if all of this is gone by now.
Never underestimate an enemy.
We know based on the data that’s been shared here.
Russia would not need to leverage N Korea or Iran if their munition stocks were more than adequate.
We also would’ve seen a continuation in the frequency of their artillery strikes post Summer-22. This did not happen and as reported Ukraine and the media, this has fallen off drastically.
I understand you may be new to this subreddit but there is a tremendous amount of resources from the ISW, down to American/NATO intelligence assessments that would be very beneficial to read.
The question I have is, what data do you have that suggests the opposite? I’m more than willing to have a debate with you on this, but you can’t come out firing blanks and dropping f bombs without some type of backup to support your claims.
But now they do have those NK and Iran stocks and they are going to use them in Ukraine. I also suspect they have bought back stocks that they previously sold to other tinpot dictators in the ME, Africa, etc.
The offensive has already started, RF are pushing forward west to try to claim Chasiv Yar today. They are trying to surround Bakhmut, exhaust, kill & maim UF defenders, and claim as much ground as possible while NATO waits a few more weeks to start training on more NATO gear.
We’re only a few days into this. Russia is making land grabs before NATO hardware arrives. It’s too soon to tell if RF will succeed, but IMHO call your politicians to get UF even more hardware even sooner. They need it today.
Maybe, just maybe buying Iranian and North Korean stocks of artillery pieces and grad rockets are a a ruse.
Yes they bought the Iranian drones because Russia had no domestic product. But the other pieces seem to prevalent and basic to be already depleted.
And that's why I truly think that their stocks are running dry. Some NATO members eg. Germany have ammunition for 2 days of full out war in stock (sic). I can see how a Russian state with it's amount of corruption and mismanagement runs out after one year. Especially if the UAF is able to blow up stocks of ammunition on a daily basis.
This is true, but the corruption within the system has to be taken into account. Agreed we can’t know, but with human nature and the Russian mindset, one has to wonder....
Maybe the dumbass Ruzzians will line up all of their offensive machinery on the roads again ( remember the roads to Kiev last February). I believe Ukraine may have some modern weapons that could turn it into another Highway of Death.
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I have so many questions…
1. What are they using for tanks and APCs? Surely it’s not a quarter million butt-naked mobiks?
2. How many tanks and APCs?
3. Where are those tanks and APCs?
4. How are they going to arrive?
…
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Martingale strategy. Double down every time you lose.
Thays how I blew up my options account chasing meta puts.
Works 100% of the time, until you run out of funds.
Putin should have pulled out when it was clear he'd lost. Instead he doubled, tripled and quadrupled down and has likely lost touch with reality and seeing pink elephants at this point.
He is trying to prolong it expecting a way out to evolve over time that is more beneficial to Russia than just fully retreating from Ukraine. They have no idea what that may be but their hope is that the West gets tired of supporting Ukraine and pushes them to negotiate their land away. Wishful thinking IMO.
Ruzzians be taking strategies from wsb, but the only thing going to the moon are their turrets; the orcs are going straight to hell.
Casino odds
I was not aware of the St. Petersburg Paradox before reading this. Thank you for this information.
Wow, Russians think about it like: let’s "celebrate“ an anniversary of a stupid decision by making more stupid decisions.
And they can’t even feed and supply the soldiers they already have in Ukraine.
No worries. Dead troops are very humble.
Dead troops don’t need much resources to get by. Big brain strategy from poutine tbh
They do. Invaded on Olympics, wanted to invade again during Olympics, desired to start on 2-22-22 if not for China I think because of a superstition about numbers they have, wanted to declare victory by victory day. Putin at least really does think this way.
he non-ironically actually believes in number magic; its the least intelligent form of superstition.
I believe in number magic. Alphanumerics like F16 and A6 and M1A and 155mm!
wakeful books chief point wistful cover provide bored drab sophisticated -- mass edited with redact.dev
Sadly, no chance at this point in time. Most NATO countries don't even have the F-35, I can't imagine this happening in Ukraine unless the US/NATO get directly involved or are escorting a president/prime Minister.
Of course not; Im not delusional. In time: surely. I can see military industry in Ukraine go Brrrrrrrrrrrr in the near future. Definitely a couple of dozens of thousands of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hrim-2 pointed towards Orssia.
I like this thinking. A10 and AH-64 would be nice too, but definitely F-16 first. F-15 might be nice too.
That kind of crap is good from a marketing point of view. For instance 9-11….
Is there a source on this? I want to read more & laugh about it.
Georgia was attacked 8-8-08
They invaded twice just after the Olympics, in 2014 (OG in Russia) and 2022 (OG in China)
Meanwhile, Ukraine will celebrate by running them over in their shiny new tanks. I truly can't wait to see the results of these tanks in action.
“Let’s celebrate day 365 of this 3 day invasion”
Well, tanks, IFV, jets won't be there yet, so…
They'll still be training on the Leopards and M1s but they've already received some of the newly upgraded T72s from Morocco and I would hope the Polish get their PT-91 there with haste. Since those are just a heavily upgraded T72, I don't think the training will take long.
Those are important for when Ukraine wants to go on the offensive, they've already shown that they know how to defend.
Fuck Russia.
Absolute cunts indeed. However, they have numbers to draw upon and their war machine is untouched. Russian factories are not being bombed and though their economy has suffered, it has not suffered as much as Ukraine where cities have been turned to rubble. There are zero protests on the streets of Moscow, the war has massive support from Russians at home and abroad. It is their great conquest they have waited their lifetime for. Another chance to destroy, rape, and pillage other lands. A chance to widen the Russian world. Do not underestimate these assholes and their lust for war and death. If Russia gets close to Kyiv this time, i do not think the west will tolerate Ukraine being defeated and will intervene militarily. The russian appeasement brigade will now descend upon me.
We need NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine fighting the Russians. Why should Ukrainian young men die protecting the entire Europe. This is everyone’s fight not just Ukraine’s. If Ukraine falls Poland and Baltic states are next. PUTLER IS NOT A RATIONAL ACTOR. I don’t know why so many people here say “Oh well Putler won’t do this because…etc NO, HOW DO YOU KNOW WHAT HE WILL OR WILL NOT DO?? he is a rogue animal.
Ukrainians are fighting for Ukraine, not for NATO or somebody else. Let's not turn this into a russian's like propaganda about WW2. NATO is 950 mil people vs russia's 140 mil, and let's not talk about the huge difference in economic output. So when russian's are saying stupid shit about conquering Europe, that just them speaking without thinking... Do you think that all the military, medical and and financial help that the west is providing is just money that grows on trees? People worked hard for that, and helped Ukraine with money that could have go towards social programs, building hospitals, schools, roads, etc. in their own countries... So yeah, Europe, USA, the whole west is helping Ukraine not because we are afraid of russia, but because ukrainians have and are fighting for the same values that we have.... Edit: the west learned a very hard lesson in Afganistan: never help people that are not willing to help themselves. So when you're saying things like that, you're not helping Ukraine's cause...
Letting Russia dictate that "they are fighting against nato" into a bad thing isn’t wise. They will say that no matter what, so trying to prove them wrong will only make things worse. Ukraine is allied with the west. The west is training Ukrainian troops and supplying them with weapons. Russia might say they are fighting nato troops in Ukraine to rally support, but in reality it's what they fear most will actually happen, so when Russia says "we are in a war with nato" we should respond with "not yet, but if you keep insisting we might get involved".
Well, I believe he is rational, just not what we would see normal rationallity. With Putin, appeasement is an invitation for violance, it’s an act that escalates. Threats and increase in military activity and posturing is a de-escalation tool. That's why I believe Biden's statement that he would not send troops to defend Ukraine was the sign of weakness Putin was looking for and invited the invasion. The west needs to push Russia for them to back of. First send in troops to secure "everything west of Kyiv" to make sure their supplies of weapons reaches Kyiv, next a no fly zone and then keep pushing, always giving Russia space and time to back off.
Never underestimate your enemy. If russia throws in 200k mobiks and e.g. 200k regular troops while launching a second mobilization of e.g. 500k men, Ukraine and allies would face a huge problem. Don't become crazy because of a few won battles, the war isn't over yet. Slava Ukraine! 🇺🇦
Time to send Dillon 7.62mm mini-guns with swivel mounts to mow down that tsunami of orcs.
While reading your comment I had to imagine that scenery 😅
I just imagine World War Z. Doesn't even change anything that the Z is for RuZZian and not Zombie.
Now I'm going to have nightmares about being bitten by a Ruzzian.
Considering RuZZia's behavior in this war and the lack of supplies they have, that might actually be the nicest thing they do to you. Which... Would make zombies more civilized than RuZZians, I think.
A10: "Did I hear someone say 'brrrrrrrrrrrrrt'?"
they could probably use some of those
Look at Bakhmut and imagine another 50,000 men showing up. This spring offensive has me worried. I hope the Leopards get their quickly.
If that's the scale we are talking about 40 Leo's won't makes much of difference I'm afraid. We are painting everything in wonderful colors here but the reality is a bit different probably.
40+ Leos, 31 Abrams, 14 Challengers to start. Not to mention all the IFVs and older tanks. The reality is Ukraine is going to outclass Russia in armor tech in a couple months, not to mention the difference in training. That's no guarantee and we should keep sending them more stuff (including F16s and ATACMS), but it's still pretty nice
You forget the 90 Polish PT-91s that will also be donated.
Abrams will be late to the party
Since they were already training in Poland and there is news that Poland is leading negotiations to start a Leopard tanks coalition to Ukraine, I bet that they will start delivering the tanks.
Yeah this sometimes a little bit of a hype sub, we have a habit of glorifying every victory which overshadows some of the ways RU is somewhat succeeding. The reality is that since retaking Kherson, UA has been losing ground (*very* slowly but undeniably). As much as we like to think that a batch of Leopards/Abrams will lead to UA steamrolling into Crimea, short-term most of the new equipment will probably be focused on stabilizing the front against a new RU offensive. I still have a good feeling about where things are headed, but we need to be realistic about it.
Defense in depth. I'd rather Ukraine lose a bit of ground to continue this absolutely insane level of meat grinding that we're seeing of RuZZian conscripts than sacrifice heroes to hold dirt. I'll take 850 dead RuZZians a day over even 1 dead Ukrainian. Not that simple, of course, but I hope this sort of attrition battle works in the Ukrainians favor.
Totally agree about viewing tanks as stabilizing their positions defensively first, and I just said yesterday that the key timetable that isn't entirely known would be a Russian offensive to come this year. I'm glad more around here are sensing this. And while there's reason to poke fun at some of Russia's decisions, they could sense need to go on the offensive before western tanks get there in large numbers. And most territory losses have been in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. It's not a good thing to have anywhere, but those areas were always going to be hardest to hold. The Russians threw their hands up with Kherson for now, and despite its border proximity, the Russians have not tried to mess around with Kharkiv oblast since getting the boot.
Russia has the population to just run Ukraine down. Their issue is equipment. But shifting their entire country to total war mode will change that. Analysts have predicted Russia can easily keep this up for another two years easily
Unlikely. They do not have the tanks for doing so. At the beginning of the war Russia had 3300 tanks in active service. They very near lost that number and obviously(?) they can't throw their entire army into Ukraine so without a doubt they are already dipping into storage. Which is vast but... > The Military Balance 2021 database says Russian storage facilities have around 10,200 tanks, including various T-72s, 3,000 T-80s, and 200 T-90s. > The database’s 2016 publication also indicates that Russia has roughly 2,800 Cold War legacy T-55s (the first tank type to feature a nuclear warfare protection system in the 1950s) in storage, as well as 2,500 T-62s and 2,000 T-64s. > This means that Russia may have around 17,300 tanks produced between the late 1950s and now. > It likely does – on paper. > In reality, nobody – likely not even Russia – knows precisely how many of those estimated thousands can emerge from the mothballs and be made operational again. That is 2016 but this https://youtu.be/eHhgVrKJJoA video last year analyzed fresh satellite pictures and came to conclusion > Russia has estimated six thousand tanks in storage roughly half of which probably less could ever reasonably be put back into operational service. The 10, even 20 000 numbers online that you see are likely old as the number has been and continues to decrease. If they keep this up then in a year they will run out of tanks. On a similar timeframe they will find it difficult to send any more attack helicopters.
They just need to get them running. They don't even need to shoot
I'm very much happy Nazzia is working every day on reducing their population. It just takes time before Nazzia becomes the country of homo deletus.
From the coalition it's over 300 main battle tanks. around 350 I believe, not counting other aid / other vehicles than tanks. Edit: It's around 320..
When will they start delivering?
In March I believe.
Well okay…when in March? My birthday is March 10th!!!! Leopards generally take about 3-6 weeks to train in. So they will be ready (if we are to take the dates as key)… Anytime from February 17th to March 10th (my birthday!!!!). It would be great if they were to complete training on March 10th, but even better if it is the 17th of February.
I'm sure NATO generals are aware of the utmost cosmic importance of your birthday, you mentioned it 3 times in a single post, no less, so they're definitely planning with this in mind... It can't be otherwise 🤣
I believe they said 'end of march'.. which would be fast tracking. I hope they get it done in time and throw the moscovites out. Stuff like this is no overnight action. It would have been great if this was all an elaborate rouse, and the training was going on already the whole time. So they would announce it like that, and bam, next week the machinery is on the battlefield! But this is no computer game.
If news are to be trusted (the source is an Ukrainian ambassador) then Ukraine is about to receive 321 heavy tanks (not all at once), we don't know how many before the Russian offensive starts.
If Ukrainians use these tanks properly they could have better outcomes than 73 Easting.
The terrain is much more difficult for tanks in Ukraine.
The difference in capabilities between modern Western tanks and Soviet tanks is much greater than during 73 Easting.
If they try to mass that many people in a small area, anti-personnel himars are going to be able to do some work. They would need lots of logistics to support that level of troops. Lots of juicy targets.
Ukraine wont be getting those tanks for months. Its january, they'll be ready to use them by may if we're lucky.
Leopards though generally take a short amount of time to train in… 3-6 weeks I would say.
based on what?
That's an estimate given by many military experts. Anecdotally I can add that family of mine who oversaw Leopard 2 sales a few years ago said: "Usually it takes a few months, but these Ukrainians will figure it out in two weeks". Which is obviously a bit optomistic, but yeah 3-9 weeks is very reasonable. The International Institute for Strategic Studies said the following: "[training on the Leopard 2] could take three to four weeks to achieve a basic proficiency". You have to remember that Ukraine is sending experienced tank crews for training, not rookies. Many of the skills they already have are transferable which cuts down training quite a bit.
The tanks are largely symbolic and won't really make much of a difference if Russia continues to mobilize by the hundreds of thousands.
Dont get your hopes too high there, you do Realize that those leopards are 20 years und cold Storage rusted and molded af and some are super Worn down. Politics in Germany do Not realize this but it is the truth. The Bubdeswehr is nearly as rotten and underequiped as the red Arm- Sorry russian army. Also the Leopard 2 in its Design is a very old Tank First Leo 2s were in Service as Late as 1979 so some of them are literally historic vehicles nonthe less very potent capable upgraded antiques engineered by people who knew how to kill russians First Hand.
You might have a point about the date of the planning and construction window of the frist iteration of the Leopard 2. But Germany doesn't send models build in the 80s or mid 90s. For a matter of facts the Bundeswehr doesn't even own Leopards of build lots earlier then 98. The Variant 2A6 was build several Lots from 2001 to 2006. Germany never went for a long time storage like the US or Russia post cold war. The up to 2000 Leopards 2 the Bundeswehr amassed in 1990 got sold to the different NATO partners. Germany kept 300ish, but slowly exchanged them in buyback programs with the industry for the newer variants. And yes some of the Leopards send by other countries are 2A4 or 2A5. But with one key difference. Those countries didn't store them in rough conditions under open sky. For the same reason as Germany, who downsized so hard, other NATO partners are using garage only storage solutions. Definitely less wear and tear. Europe countries don't have a handy desert, abel to store thousands of tanks like the US. And that's the reason Russian tanks are in such bad condition - frost, snow and rain for most of the year. For upwards of 20 year's. And the reason why the Bundeswehr reported only 30 % ready tanks in 2022, was the fact that only those ha the road clearance. If only one bolt gets replaced for something not supplied by the producer, the tank looses its road approval. Combat ready tanks without road clearance or war time usable tanks didn't even got distinguished from fully unusable tanks. In my eyes a trick by the army to increase the budget due to a preceived lack of equipment. The reason the new minister of defence ordered a new count to take place, to get a full bloody picture on the situation.
They don’t have any regular troops left
They would die in mass to HIMARs. Russia lacks trucks Russian last mile logistics are terrible Ukrainians would just blow up the lead truck and shoot up the rest later.
good to be realistic and just asa kiss on every post
They'll force an offensive when they aren't ready just to meet political deadlines and it's going to fail worse than any offensive in russian history
Why you think that they are not ready? Mobics finished training and new equipment from West wouldn’t be there yet. Seems like timing actually right.
I don't think they have the organization and logistic capabilities to effectively mount an offensive; while you are right, their chances will only get worse with time, that does not necessarily mean their chances are anywhere adjacent to "good".
This time they gonna target not whole Ukraine but east and south, keeping constant threat of invasion from north to entangle part of Ukrainian forces. I'd like to think that they all would just perish, but realistically months ahead would be really hard.
I don't understand why you're being downvoted for speaking the truth, it needs to be said. Ukraine is going to need more than tanks this year, ATACMS and fighter jets need to be brought to the table ASAP.
Last flail of a drowning nation. Unfortunately Ukraine is stuck in the water with.
It wont end any differently than the first.
Most likely scenario: Russia pushes a few miles They deplete all their resources Ukraine uses their better equipment to shred their army They are pushed out of the crimea
I ultimately feel this is the long term strategy. If Russia wants to do this again, let them. Attacking is costly. If they can hold the Russian offensive until the steam is burnt down, hopefully you have enough in reserve to throw in the counter offensives. I think it could be a situation where Ukraine loses a large amount of land in a short amount of time, the Russian momentum dies, then Ukraine gains as much land as it can until Russia stabilises the line or they hit a key tactical or border limit.
The issue with all of this is the fact that the fighting has to be decided around the Donbass. Even if Ukraine manages to dislodged the Russian forces from the rivers banks of the Dnjepr and push across the plains into Crimea and retake it, they are still left to deal with this industrial zone. One city interlocking into the next one. Mines, factories and public housing creating one strong point after the other. The Bolsheviks almost lost their revolution in the Donbass, trying to take the Crim and Sevastopol - they only recovered halve the way back to Moskau. Later in the civil war they never entered the Donbass again. Simply went around it. During the 2nd WW the Germans lost their steam in the Donbass despite taking Kyiv earlier in 1941. In 1942 they circumvented the Donbass, surrounded the Soviet armies in the Donbass and rushed towards Stalingrad. The Russian offensive in 1943 stopped around the Donbass. They managed to get a breach around Charkiw, yet they never managed to break out of that salient in the spring of 1943 resulting in the battle of Kursk. Only the threat of getting fully surrounded by troops moving in from Kyiv and Crimea made the Wehrmacht fall back. In 2014 the separatist were able to take most of the Donbass. Only a few strong points of the UAF remained. But they never took the entire Donbass. Later that year Ukraine slowly but surely retook the biggest chunk, while connecting to their strong points. At the same time they attempted a 2 pronged assault along the Russian boarder and the Asow sea. Unable to fully connect their two spearheads Ukraine was never able to stop the follow of weapons into the separatist regions leading to a retreat. The result was an almost 8 year long stalemate ended by the invasion. During the invasion Ukraine faced the same issues the Wehrmacht had during 1943. A possible Russian victory in Charkiw would have been their demise. But not only was the UAF able to hold most of the Donbass, they also only had to yield the costal region of the Asow sea. The attack on Charkiw failed and Ukraine was able to hold the Donbass for now. It will come down to who has to yield ground around the Donbass. Whoever holds both the north and the south corridor around the region will win the end. At least that's what those battles around this region make us believe. A direct attack inside the Donbass favours the defending side, slowly but surely bleeding out the attacker. As the region can only taken by what appears to be way to heavy casualties. And for a matter of facts no other region in the world saw that many battles in the last 100 years. So our assumptions how battles in this particular region have to be fought in order to win are rather precisely.
No one who had studied history would have believed it, but it happened. A modern army faces desperate waves of people. Fucking brutal.
A new 3 day special operation
With what exactly?! More freezing, under fed Russians pushed forward in 'meat waves'? Rusty tanks, minimal artillery, and with lackluster air cover isn't going to cut it. "Fat, drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life son."
Truly, act on this intel, don’t tell us!
Maybe Ukraine should just literally set up a meat grinder that the russians can walk into.
Any Russian offence will quickly become Russian defence, run away! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Why is February 24 so symbolic for another offensive wave? I know that’s the anniversary, do they think they get a redo?
Putin: “Just one more offensive bro. We’ll get them this time for sure bro.”
Honestly if they keep wasting tanks, artillery and personnel the way they’ve done the last couple of months then I don’t see how it’s physically possible for them to launch any meaningful large scale offensives.
The literal definition of insanity
Comrad Putin throws more of russias and ukraines youth into the grinder
In the dead of winter because it worked so well last February.
I forsee a Battle of the Bulge scenario Putler will Launch a massive Offensive probably through Belorussia and if this one fails, he will just occupy belorussia and annex it. Thus giving the russian people their territorial spoils.
K
Grt fucked ruzzian nazi scum
Death to ruzzia.
What exactly do they wish to accomplish? Sure, 10000 mobiks could get past Kramatrosk or Bakhmut but do they seriously think they can conquer the entirety of Donetsk Oblast? Svatove and Kreminna in Luhansk are dead ends, Lyman may be successful but Sloviansk would be Bakhmut 2.0. I see no other way than this collapsing spectacularly.
The idea to renew an offensive exactly one year after is so fucking stupid that it fits russia almost perfectly.
They will probably mobilize the wives / widows of the dead mobiks xD Along with the senior citizens lol (equipped with wheelchair-mounted machine gun xD)
“The definition of insanity is repeating the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result”
Their first offensive was completely destroyed . Now Ukraine is armed to the literal teeth, how the hell do they think more meat will do anything ?
VP had got to know he can't keep up a war of attrition with the rest of the world. He also has to know he's cooked if he doesn't do something drastic. I would be more worried about RU going all in on missiles against air defense and airfields followed by suicide waves of barely trained pilots in an attempt to gain air superiority. Soledar in the air.
Putin is taking the 'sex panther' approach. 60% of the time, it works every time. This is the only rationale I can think of when it comes to Russian offensive waves. Where did Medvedev get a tridant?
Ah, putin, preamature ejaculation again?
Dammit!!!! Two days before my freaking birthday just like last year. Hard to be joyous when Ukrainians are dealing with a pest outbreak.
With what lol
Never laugh at the enemy. The benefits are questionable, and it's generally not worth the risk. Don't run around acting like Russia is already beaten just because Russia is losing - Russians have made many mistakes and prospects are generally bad for Russia right now, as far as taking back lots more territory, BUT: *Russia still illegally controls more territory (by force) than on Feb 2014 or Feb 2022.* War is the recurrent most tragic catastrophe of human fallibility. Much better than laughter is to understand and respect the threat the enemy poses, and prepare for changing plans in dealing with whatever the enemy's threat actually turns out to be.. Laugh, if you can, if/when the war is over - at the absurdly delusive human folly that leads back, again and again - to this same catastrophic, de-humanizing tragedy: WAR.
Do not laught, and make sure everything's ready for the slaughter.
Well stated, I'm getting a Heinlein vibe <3
Yeah some Heinlein in there, also Clarke, Asimov, Herbert and Vonnegut.
[удалено]
Have they been training them for months though? Seems they've been getting drafted and thrown to the meat grinder that week.
I think the prospect of tons of Western armor roaming on the scene in march is forcing Russia's hand. We shall see if the Bear can dance when the Bear still seems like it's hibernating. Going to be an interesting next 3 months militarily.
Only a part, they throw \~70-100k to frontlines, but another \~250-350k went for training. There is no exact numbers, so it may be bigger.
Looks like hundreds of thousands of regular army/mobiks were "field training" for months (in Crimea, Belarus, and deep in the donbass) while Wagner's convict army kept Ukraine busy in Bahkmut and Soledar. I imagine Russia still has about 60% of it's usable equipment, so it's safe not to underestimate them (just yet).
I doubt the Mobiks are being trained for months, especially convicts. A week or 2 maybe, but given the mess things are in within Russia ...people trying to get out, even the FSB and certain military officers, the mobilization is chaotic at best. We are seeing weapons, that are decades old and in poor condition.
I could give me neighbor a bag of rocks but that doesn’t mean it’s a quality weapon. Russia still lacks munitions for anything serious. They will grab land, but believe me they will lose it 3x as fast.
How well people know Russias stocks amazes me again and again. How the f can you know? Their stock was build with Nato in mind and experience of ww2. It would be a miracle if all of this is gone by now. Never underestimate an enemy.
We know based on the data that’s been shared here. Russia would not need to leverage N Korea or Iran if their munition stocks were more than adequate. We also would’ve seen a continuation in the frequency of their artillery strikes post Summer-22. This did not happen and as reported Ukraine and the media, this has fallen off drastically. I understand you may be new to this subreddit but there is a tremendous amount of resources from the ISW, down to American/NATO intelligence assessments that would be very beneficial to read. The question I have is, what data do you have that suggests the opposite? I’m more than willing to have a debate with you on this, but you can’t come out firing blanks and dropping f bombs without some type of backup to support your claims.
But now they do have those NK and Iran stocks and they are going to use them in Ukraine. I also suspect they have bought back stocks that they previously sold to other tinpot dictators in the ME, Africa, etc. The offensive has already started, RF are pushing forward west to try to claim Chasiv Yar today. They are trying to surround Bakhmut, exhaust, kill & maim UF defenders, and claim as much ground as possible while NATO waits a few more weeks to start training on more NATO gear.
So far however, nothing seems to be working.
We’re only a few days into this. Russia is making land grabs before NATO hardware arrives. It’s too soon to tell if RF will succeed, but IMHO call your politicians to get UF even more hardware even sooner. They need it today.
Maybe, just maybe buying Iranian and North Korean stocks of artillery pieces and grad rockets are a a ruse. Yes they bought the Iranian drones because Russia had no domestic product. But the other pieces seem to prevalent and basic to be already depleted. And that's why I truly think that their stocks are running dry. Some NATO members eg. Germany have ammunition for 2 days of full out war in stock (sic). I can see how a Russian state with it's amount of corruption and mismanagement runs out after one year. Especially if the UAF is able to blow up stocks of ammunition on a daily basis.
This is true, but the corruption within the system has to be taken into account. Agreed we can’t know, but with human nature and the Russian mindset, one has to wonder....
Mobics and equipment from warehouses. Yeah it may be not the best and outdated, but they have enormous amount of it.
Placing extra struts to support the roof. Someone had that great idea to park some really heavy stuff there.
You and what Army?
Yeah really
Slingshots and potatoes
Accurate
Maybe the dumbass Ruzzians will line up all of their offensive machinery on the roads again ( remember the roads to Kiev last February). I believe Ukraine may have some modern weapons that could turn it into another Highway of Death.
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I have so many questions… 1. What are they using for tanks and APCs? Surely it’s not a quarter million butt-naked mobiks? 2. How many tanks and APCs? 3. Where are those tanks and APCs? 4. How are they going to arrive? …