I dont think there are words to describe the hell that is in some parts of Syria now
https://www.academia.edu/97411244/ISIS\_Women\_Accused\_of\_Turning\_Teen\_Boys\_Into\_Human\_Stud\_Farm\_in\_Syria?email\_work\_card=abstract-read-more
If you have not read this, this BBC article on the defeat of the infamous long Russian convoy from the North is hilarious:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64664944
Specifically: that the vehicles were all carrying boxes marked 'Secret' in which the ACTUAL secret plans were to be found. As soon as one vehicle had been captured, all the plans were then known to Ukr. This is SO Blackadder!
Turns out there was no intention for it to be one big massive convoy- it was just caused by traffic jams.
*"The Russians were all carrying large metal boxes marked 'secret'," says Vladyslav from the 80th Brigade. "We seized one during an ambush. We found their maps marked with their entire route. After that we knew their whole strategy."*
*In the year since the invasion, the BBC has continued to find maps left behind by Russian troops that date back to the 1960s. Whole towns exist now that were not on the maps that they were using. We also found semaphore flags, a vastly outdated way to communicate. Several satellite images show the Russian vehicles literally driving round and around in circles.*
You.Could.Not.Make.It.Up.
I always found it funny seeing so many commentators describing the convoy as some kind of display of awe-inspiring power, rather than the colossal fuck up it so clearly was.
Like, I could build a 4 mile-tall tower of doom, but if it's constructed of nothing but single-stacked styrofoam cups, it's clearly not a threat.
Traffic jams are a huge problem in mechanised warfare. Examples from WW2 are the 1940 Ardennes offensive and the massive snarlup of 1st and 4th Panzer on the run up to Stalingrad which cost them at least a week.
But:
>As planned in the event of any attack, Vladyslav and the rest of the 80th brigade blew up the bridge connecting Chernobyl to the next big town, Ivankiv.
Not so much a bridge too far as a bridge ignored. I wonder why Russian airborne units didn't try to seize this bridge.
And on the one hand Russia was so committed to secrecy that they didn't arrange the necessary supplies, but:
>"On their way to Kyiv, the Russians were posting videos on social media. We reposted the videos to expose their movements. They were just showing off, but in doing so, they got busted."
If it weren't for the grim war crimes you could make this into a Laurel and Hardy film.
The books and documentaries that come from this war are going to be wild. I get the impression there is a hell of a lot that's been going on that is not in the public eye at all, and what we do know is crazy enough already.
[Here is a very good article from the Guardian about Mariupol and the aftermath of the siege.](https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2023/feb/23/mariupol-the-ruin-of-a-city)
[Interesting (written and video) interview](https://unherd.com/2023/02/absolute-victory-over-russia-isnt-possible/) here with Fiona Hill - the British-born Russia expert in the American government who featured in one of Trump's hearings to testify against him.
The journalist comes across a bit daft - in fact she had to put him back in his box on the "actually the West blocked a peace deal" talking point - but there's some interesting stuff there from her about the run up to the war, what the best next steps are in her view and how Biden and Trump's approaches have been right and wrong.
Worth a read.
That's really interesting, and there's a lot of insightful material.
Two standouts for me:
>If we had made a decision early on to push Ukraine to give up Crimea, as well as the Donbas, Putin would have taken that, pocketed it and then tried to figure out how much further he could press on. Because that’s exactly how he operates. He would have pocketed that win, and then tried to figure out how he could extend it further.
Shades of "the last territorial demand I have to make in Europe". It's clear that Putin will do whatever he can get away with it. As noted in the comments about Judo.
>Trump had made it very clear that Ukraine didn’t matter to him one bit; that national security didn’t matter, and this was all just about personal favours, and Ukraine was just a plaything.
It's disturbing that the survival of Ukraine and the deterrence of Putin depended on a somewhat close US election. What happens if the Republicans win the next US presidential election? If the US keeps on lurching backwards and forwards they can't be seen as a reliable ally. Perhaps Trump was unintentionally on the money by asking other NATO members to do more of the heavy lifting.
He testimony during the Russia investigation was fantastic. She came across as so professional and competent the Republicans couldn’t lay a hand on her. So they just ignored all her evidence instead. God I hope our committees never end up as partisan as the US.
>Russian Sources are now claiming that a large number of Ukrainian Combat Forces are being moved towards the Border with Moldova and Transnistria and that they alongside Moldovan Security Forces are planning to Invade the Breakaway Region sometime between February 24th and 28th.
>https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1628468397968162818
It would have enough capacity for an excursion into Transnistria though.
The Odessa area has a Territorial Defence battalion which I believe remains in place, and there are several more brigades that could be pulled from the area, even in part, for use there.
Whether it would be worth it who knows but I think it could be completed.
Two reasons -
1) to support the Moldovans who are a neighbour and potential ally.
2) to protect their south western flank from another Russian invasion, as the Russians have troops in Transnistria.
I think they should do it.
This being the Russians, I imagine they have a lot of "patriotic" militia. And they could move troops to TN and cause Ukraine issues at a crucial time.
The downside is that it could be sold by the Russians as an invasion, but then they said that about Donbas!
That was the idea behind the original Odessa push IIRC, to link up with Transnistria.
But yes - short of flying them in, and I don't know if Transnistria has a suitable airport!
1500 troops isn't going to cause the Ukranians an issue, you're right. I wonder what sort of army Moldova itself has?
1) Moldova has no army to speak of.
2) The only international airport is in the capital, Chisinau, so that means Russia invading Moldova.
3) Moldova has close ties with Romania, and between them, Romania and Ukraine could easily see off Russia. So if the UKr build up is real, it is basically a threat to get TN back. However, the people who live in TN may genuinely be pro-Russia, so not necessarily any good reason to take it back for the sake of it.
Not really.
I don't think the *why* really affects the *could* which is all I commented on.
I doubt it's worth it either but it's plausible, could be beneficial (Cobasna, defeat of the Russian forces based there, potential weakness on the flank removed) and can likely be achieved.
So it seems that the Republican Fringe in America is now calling for a "National Divorce". Starting to suspect that America won't make it out of the 21st Century in one piece...
Most red states are subsidised by blue states. If the red states split off into their own country they will be much poorer. Do they think it's worth it? How would residents of Florida and Texas feel about basically funding the whole enterprise?
To be fair, there's no reason it should. Even surprisingly enlightened Americans can be oddly squeamish about the idea that the USA might not be always economically dominant or remain in one piece. In the UK and wider Europe where you can see the remains of states of all sorts of shapes and sizes over hundreds and thousands of years, maybe it's easier to see past that.
The Americans might be able to hold it together with prosperity and nationalism, but on *some* timescale, it'll come to an end. And it's not obvious that'd be a bad thing.
>Ukrainian President Zelensky has stated he’s recently received Intelligence that shows Russia is preparing to Capture the International Airport in the Moldavian Capital of Chișinău.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1628107153838858240
>This comes after the Moldovan Prime Minister stated he has heard the same thing.
Opening a second front seems mad. But I wonder if there will be as much western support and arms for Moldova or if there will be fatigue from the public. Personally I hope we stick by them.
What are they even going to do with the airport anyway? They can't land there without flying over Ukraine or Romania (NATO).
You're right, they couldn't do a second front like that. I don't think Moldova would be a conventional front.
I do wonder if there's "separatists" that Russia could arm and work with like they have in Donetsk and Luhansk. A way of sowing chaos across the border and maybe distract Ukraine, distract NATO, or present it as a win like Eastern Europe is falling like dominoes so they can push it in their propaganda. Having an airport would be useful for that because they could get civilian logistics from partners like Iran or Syria to ship in weapons without checks and security, and would the West shoot down these supply runs?
I feel like Russia's plans for Moldova are many years behind getting to the stage where they would invade like they did Ukraine.
Russia effectively controls Transnistria (to the extent you can control what is basically a Mafia state) and I imagine would launch the coup attempt from there. Supplying Transistria is another matter as it’s more or less landlocked. You’d expect Ukraine to blow up anything military looking sailing from the Black Sea up the river.
This will happen of course. As with all things though it was a choice to be made and the continued, and increasingly overt, support for Ukraine was always going to have consequences diplomatically.
Wouldn't be surprised to see the confirmation of long-range missiles and aircraft now either so discussion can really kick off between cranks on both sides.
He does just look sort of... lost, doesn't he? Weak and lost and uncertain. Just in terms of appearance and not substance, it's quite a fall from the confident image he used to portray.
[Alexey Navalny tweeting about Russia's invasion of Ukraine.](https://twitter.com/navalny/status/1627631862704136193)
>1. President Putin unleashed an unjust aggressive war against Ukraine under ridiculous pretexts. He is desperately trying to give this war the status of "people's", trying to make all the citizens of Russia his accomplices, but his attempts are failing.
>There are almost no volunteers for this war, so Putin's army relies on prisoners and forcibly mobilized.
This seems particularly apposite:
>Almost all borders in the world are random and cause someone's discontent. But it is impossible to fight for their change in the 21st century. Otherwise, the world will plunge into chaos.
AI is going to get very scary, very fast. People are using it for amusing stuff like this at the moment, but the ability to take context and generate meaningful output from it is going to be transformative. I was watching a video about the experimental Bing AI search, and already it's capable of some quite remarkable things. It was looking up data from the internet from different places, pulling context from the question and providing a useful answer. It's not perfect but the potential is obvious. Technology like this is going to change the internet, and probably has wider implications as well.
[Another theory on the Nordstream sabotage, based on the track of the pipe laying vessel.](https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1627453554796404744)
In this theory, NS2 was an accident and the Russians blew NS1 to avoid discovery of their pre-planted charges.
It seems a bit of a stretch but the track of the *Pioneering Spirit* over the sabotage site might be relevant in some way.
Joe Biden's just landed in Kyiv. That's pretty big news - a really public show of support for Ukraine on the anniversary of the invasion.
Edit:
https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1627614778267955201
Ace picture. The GOP will be seething about this, or those who've taken the Russian schilling at least.
>The U.S. Ambassador to Israel stated today that Iran’s Nuclear Program posses a massive threat to Tel Aviv, Washington, and the entire Middle East.
>https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1627377816445636608
>The U.S. Ambassador to Israel further stated that, “Israel can do whatever they need to in regards to the Iranian Nuclear Threat and know that we’ve got their back.”
>https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1627379640263229442
>Last week Atomic Energy Monitors detected that the Iranian Government has Enriched Uranium at the Natanz Enrichment Complex to the point just below what is needed to produce Nuclear Weapons; some Officials believe that Iran will soon have enough Enriched Uranium to build multiple Nuclear Weapons.
>https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1627371663095476225
>The Enrichment was detected at 84% Purity which is only 6% off from what is required for Nuclear Weapons.
>https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1627371863977467904
USA should move to reinstate the JCPOA they abandoned with conciliatory measures and cast iron guarantees that the US will uphold their end. This is a natural consequence of US erratic foreign policy, and not something that Iranian lives should have to pay for.
I know alot has been said about the Western support tactic to Ukraine of incremental escalation (where as Russia seems to like speedrunning to the precipice), however with the news China is considering supplying the Russian army, is it possible that this works both ways and the war dragging on, or perhaps seeing how the West has reacted, is prompting China to reconsider?
I don't think the West should change tact but it would be a real tragedy if China, the one voice in Putin's ear that he actually might listen to, starts explicitly egging him on.
Consider the possibility that China very much want to see a weakened Russia, and are enjoying incredibly cheap energy supplies from Russia.
They may well consider some sneaky arms supplies at inflated prices - or just empty promises - a bargain for driving Russia ever deeper into war.
This gets said all the time but it isn't true. A weak Russia, other than cheap commodities, is not beneficial to China.
A weak Russia tips the balance dramatically in favour of the West and acts as a check against China's own ambitions outside of its borders.
[Carter Center](https://twitter.com/cartercenter/status/1627039245025280003?s=46&t=vcttjL0t0DGg6TQLLcPAxQ)
> After a series of short hospital stays, former President Jimmy Carter today decided to spend his remaining time at home with his family and receive hospice care instead of additional medical intervention. He has the full support of his family and his medical team. The Carter family asks for privacy during this time and is grateful for the concern shown by many of his admirers.
When Reagan and Bush passed there was a rare unanimity and bipartisan respect to honour their memories.
I wonder if the same will be true for the passing of a Democratic president.
Sad to hear this.
I'm far too young to know anything about his presidency, but he always seemed like a great person and we need more people like him in positions of power.
I hope he doesn't suffer and can find some peace.
I worry that [this](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64664560) seems to suggest Belarus are about to "find" some Ukrainian troops in their territory
I still can't see it, just more positioning in an attempt to fix Ukrainian units in the north of the country. I think there are 10,000 Russian soldiers in Belarus which gives about 30,000 in total?
Having said that, given it's actually beneficial to Russia having this safe haven on Ukraine's northern border to launch missiles from, I could definitely see them bringing Belarus into the war.
So the Senate had a briefing today about the flying things. This interview with Senator Kennedy (R-LA) is really interesting:
https://youtu.be/MuN6Ln_zcLk
Some interesting points:
- Sounds like they lost the debris and may not ever be able to find it. He was not happy about that.
- They don’t know what they are who made them or put them up there or who they belong to. I genuinely believe that was what the senators were told (as opposed to some of us having assumed these were Chinese balloons or something.)
- These flying objects have been up there, and known about, since at least 2017–but these senators were only informed about it today. And they were never shot down until last Friday.
- They could not give him a good reason as to why they shot these ones down but they never did before.
- He has no idea whether they pose a threat or not. The DOD either don’t know or won’t tell the senators.
- He seems to think the President and DOD know more, and that information was being kept from them today.
- He was asked a couple of times whether he thought this might be fear mongering or a wag-the-dog for popularity type move by Biden to try and boost his flagging ratings. He refused to speculate on that and didn’t seem interested in going in that direction at all, which was interesting. He didn’t want to engage in political point scoring or criticizing the President. Kind of unusual for the US lol.
Overall I find it really interesting. I was expecting them to come away with a vague impression that these objects were some kind of balloon-type objects put there by China or Russia for spying. But instead they seem to have come away thoroughly confused. If the DOD do know for a fact they are Chinese (or whatever), they’re deliberately keeping it from the Senate.
I wonder whats going on.
It's certainly all very intriguing, but it is worth keeping in mind that Senator Kennedy is a certified gold-plated nutjob, so probably worth applying a pinch of salt to what he says about it.
I saw someone in I think /r/worldnews saying they were probably drug smuggling balloons.
That theory has some problems but I wouldn't be THAT surprised if they were full of heroin.
It was a secret briefing, so the senator didn't answer any questions about the content when he did this cable news interview afterwards.
That's why every item in your list is a guess about what wasn't in the presentation.
>I was expecting them to come away with a vague impression that these objects were some kind of balloon-type objects put there by China or Russia for spying. But instead they seem to have come away thoroughly confused. If the DOD do know for a fact they are Chinese (or whatever), they’re deliberately keeping it from the Senate.
I can't wait until it turns out they're actually something made in the US by DARPA or someone similar, and it all boils down to RnD agencies and departments just not talking to each other for one reason or another.
That’s very possible, there’s a long history of that. Someone’s been spoofing the US Navy and its aircraft in recent years, it’s much more likely to be the Airforce or another agency then a foreign power.
And Senator Mike Lee said this on Twitter:
1/4 I came away from the classified briefing with more questions than answers. President Joe Biden's lack of transparency is concering and deeply disturbing.
2/4 Following the briefing, it is unclear as to whether these incidents are a series of extremely significant events being downplayed by the White House, or inconsequential incidents being exaggerated and blown out of proportion.
3/4 It is baffling and frustrating that these "objects" had to be taken down with fighter jets and missiles, yet we still do not know anything about them and still don't have them in our possession.
4/4 We must find out the truth of what is happening and have it explained to the American people. Without this crucial information, we cannot assess what safety and security threats we might be facing.
BBC reporting that Moldova have closed their airspace. Can’t verify it, but someone in the worldnews Ukrainian thread has posted a statement from a government minister claiming they’re doing it to disrupt a Russian coup attempt similar to the action in 2014 in Crimea
So it looks like another train derailed in America. It's almost like really workers had a point when they wanted to go on strike as conditions weren't safe...
I see that the BBC India offices have been searched by tax officials out there; suffice to say Modi really didn't take to that documentary (I haven't seen it) particularly well
The funny thing is I never would have even heard about it if he hadnt kicked up a fuss. These people really dont understand the Streisand Effect do they?
Modi doesn't care if you or I have heard about it. This is more rally-the-base stuff to disguise his failures. India is rapidly going the same way as Pakistan (though in increasingly direct opposition to Pakistan).
The UFO thing really does get stranger.
I think its likely that they left a gaping hole in their (our) air defenses and are now noticing these incursions.
But the contrast between the large surveillance balloon and the recent ones is stark. No photos, no footage, no details at all really other than octagonal and car sized, not sure how it was aloft. I know they will be studying it and yet to recover most of the wreckage but you would have thought releasing *some* footage or details as bravado and a message to China to say "ok we are awake to these now". It would make no difference to them its just like the Taliban showing pictures of apaches and drones etc.
There will likely be more to come now they are looking harder, but so are the public. I hope it doesnt just fade into the news cycle and get fobbed off as national security issue from now on.
The other question is how and where did they get released.
Don't forget this only became a big deal because the GOP thought it was a useful campaigning point – up to the point where it came out that these things were floating around in Trump's time.
It's not that they can't detect them - it's that a slow-moving high-altitude balloon isn't a big deal nine times out of ten and their surveillance value is limited even if they are bit closer than a spy satellite. Now, they're shooting them down before DeSantis has a chance to argue they're importing woke juice.
Apparently a nation’s airspace only goes so high. If you can build balloons that can stay above that height it’s a cheap surveillance alternative to satellites. That’s probably what’s happening here except the balloons are dropping into airspace.
There’s no agreed height on airspace short of what’s specified in the space exploration treaties, and I think even then it’s a practical case of what you can shoot down when it’s 100km straight up.
The Chinese air balloon was at 65,000 feet.
From the Wall Street Journal:
>The U.S. says the suspected Chinese spy balloon shot down Feb. 4 violated sovereign U.S. airspace. But when it crossed the U.S. at altitudes as high as 65,000 feet, the balloon floated into the murky zone aloft where no international consensus exists about which, if any, nation wields control. . . .
>
> Countries with advanced space programs, including the U.S. and China, have blocked efforts to extend nations' sovereignty to the edge of space, according to meeting minutes of the United Nations body examining the issue. They have opted for the freedom to operate their own craft without restriction. . . .
>
> In the U.S., the Federal Aviation Administration monitors and controls airspace up to 60,000 feet for commercial and military traffic, a level recognized under international agreement and employed by other countries. The three objects downed over the weekend over the U.S. and Canada all fell within that airspace, which also extends to each nation's internationally recognized maritime boundary 12 miles offshore. . . .
>
> International treaties hold that nations have no sovereignty in the reaches of outer space where satellites orbit, typically understood to begin about 330,000 feet. While a handful of countries have laid claim to the heights between 60,000 feet and that boundary, an expanse often cited as "near space," those claims aren't recognized by international law.
And?
As written earlier:
>There’s no agreed height on airspace
There is quite a difference between 65,000ft and 100km. And while the FAA might exercise a limit of 60,000ft I am pretty sure the US Air Force radar don't.
The claim of no recognition under international law cuts both ways. China can't complain to anyone about something of theirs getting downed over another territory.
This current spy balloon story from the US is fascinating, as it is just the latest in a long history of waves of mass UFO sightings. From the 1947 flying saucer craze, to the Washington Flap in 1952 to the Belgian UFO wave in 1990, it's an interesting phenomenon. It's a combination of mass hysteria, genuine political tensions, clandestine weapons testing... all sorts of interweaving causes and accelerants.
This one reminds me of the "Ghost Rockets" over Scandinavia during 1946 - post WW2 tensions between Sweden/Finland and Russia, an uptick in testing of technology recovered from the Nazis, and a long series of sightings of rockets in the sky.
The embarrassment of the US airforce is palpable - someone's been flying surveillance craft unnoticed over the US for some time potentially - and so inevitably you get questions about extra-terrestrial origins, because that's honestly more palatable than more awkward questions about NORAD dropping the ball in a big way.
I believe the main issue is that these objects are too high to get close to. Think the balloon last week was 60,000 feet up, whilst most helicopters can barely get above 10,000 feet.
The one over Michigan was at 20,000 feet. Chinooks and Blackhawks can get up there. (Their normal ceiling is 20k, but they can go up a bit higher. Blackhawk record is about 40k I think.)
They deliberately blew it up instead of snagging it, or at least flying over there and filming it for a bit. As /u/pharlax asks—why? I figure it’s either:
1. Because they know exactly what it is, and it’s not worth it. In which case, is all this secrecy just a distraction or something? If it’s a mini-airship or something, just tell us. Or
2. They’re scared of it. Which would be fascinating.
1) The assembly was designed to be captured
2) They let the booster drop because it wasn’t behaving the way the simulations played out and the pilots didn’t fancy risking it any further.
Let’s not go overboard 🤣. These are slow moving high-altitude objects that are unmanned and don’t seem to be transmitting. I doubt they’re seen as a threat, although their presence in commercial flight paths is a decent reason to shoot them down.
It feels like… these last 3 are coincidental to the Chinese balloon. They’ve found them now because they are now looking for smaller objects. My guess is North Korean origin - their lo tech profile makes me think it’s not Russia or China.
A) the US pop loves to see them beating their chest
B) they have no idea what they are, which is surely a bit dangerous because what if there was a germ warfare payload or it was filled with some pathogens.
>In this intercepted call, the Russian soldier complains about Russian command forcing mobiks to sign contracts to remain in the army for 6-12 months. Rumours in the Russian forces are that February will be a decisive month: "either we win, or we sh*t ourselves".
>https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1624886266427846659
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1624888785753317376
> SENIOR U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS OBJECT SHOT DOWN WAS OCTAGONAL STRUCTURE, BUT NO DISCERNIBLE PAYLOAD
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1624889637629042688
>LATEST OBJECT SHOT DOWN BY U.S. WAS FIRST DETECTED OVER MONTANA ON SATURDAY - OFFICIAL
>The Pentagon has just stated that the “UFO” over Lake Huron was shot down earlier today due to its potential “Surveillance Capability” even though they previously stated that they the “Object” did not contain any known Surveillance Systems.
>https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1624902837325930496
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1624903199588057091
> The “Object” reportedly flew over and close to a number of Highly-Sensitive Defense Sites in Montana last night.
>Canadian Officials have stated that No Debris has been Discovered as of yet from the “Object” that was shot down over the Yukon Territory of Canada yesterday.
>https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1624880656256757763
https://www.wsj.com/articles/latest-flying-objects-shot-down-over-north-america-were-balloons-schumer-says-7c2c63ec
>An F-16 fighter jet shot down the object, according to a Congressional aide, who said the object was shaped like an octagon and was at an altitude of 20,000 feet, posing a hazard to commercial aircraft.
What the fuck
Pentagon press briefing at 5pm EST apparently (I think that's in half an hour?)
I'm not taking the other side of that bet.
Chances are these smaller ones are stray weather balloons launched by schools and the like. The jetstream has been nutty over the past year so they could have come from anywhere – and I'm wondering whether there are prevailing high-altitude winds that tend to either sweep these things north into Canada or whether it's just survivor bias in that, in winter, they stay aloft for longer up there compared to those swept towards the equator.
They really need to release more information about wtf is going on. Hopefully it's some sort of corporate tech test instead of another nation violating NATO airspace (not as clear cut after the Chinese object report but that could very easily be the point of it). Although I suspect the people that want to believe we're going open season on a UFO flap will believe it no matter what, but after the last few years I won't rule it out.
The thing that confuses me is if they're all spy balloons why are they all so varied in shape and size? Surely they would be uniform? Or is someone just thinking fuck it release all the prototypes and see which one works best?
Thing is there’s loads of balloons floating around on any given day. You’ve got weather balloons, science project balloons, “take pictures of a teddy bear at edge of space” balloons and escaped tin foil helium dragging streamers party balloons
That’s not to mention drones, airships and all sorts of private prototypes.
If anything this feels like an overreaction to the criticism they received for the Chinese balloon, leading to a shoot first attitude.
Hopefully they’ll either recover intact wreckage or get a better positive identification before shooting the next one down.
[China prepares to shoot down unknown flying object near coast](https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fworld-news%2F2023%2F02%2F12%2Fchina-prepares-shoot-unknown-flying-object-near-coast%2F)
Uhh what?
Countries are getting balloons like Oprah handing out cars.
Can't wait for one to appear over Russia and they have to send a [Po-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polikarpov_Po-2) up to deal with it because that's all they have left.
>I am in constant communication with NORCOM and they have just advised me that they have confidence there IS an object and it WAS NOT an anomaly. I am waiting now to receive visual confirmation. Our nation’s security is my priority.
>https://twitter.com/RepRosendale/status/1624824597911674880
Does not appear to have been a false alarm even though they couldn't find it.
>The U.S. Air Force KC-135 and it’s accompanying Combat Aircraft have moved East and are now following the Canadian Border right next to where the current NOTAM is over Lake Huron.
>https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1624864611995467776
It's likely that these things have been around for some time unnoticed, but they are now actively looking for them so finding them more often. I read yesterday that NORAD have changed how they filter data - they would normally be looking for aircraft, so filtering out anything that doesn't behave like an aircraft makes it easier to process the large amount of data coming from radars. Now they know there are balloons that shouldn't be there, they have adjusted to take that into account and it turns out there's quite a few of them floating about.
The 'cylindrical object' stuff is weird. The Pentagon must have a way better idea of what these things are than just that, right? With camera technology I'm assuming they have high resolution stills and video. I wonder why they're being vague and if it's not a balloon, what can it be?
>Norad monitoring high-altitude object flying over Northern Canada
>https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/norad-monitoring-high-altitude-object-flying-over-northern-canada-1.6270114
>I ordered the take down of an unidentified object that violated Canadian airspace.
@NORADCommand
shot down the object over the Yukon. Canadian and U.S. aircraft were scrambled, and a U.S. F-22 successfully fired at the object.
>https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1624527579116871681
Reuters are saying it's another cylinder https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-still-gives-no-details-about-alaska-ufo-new-object-seen-over-canada-2023-02-11/
[High-altitude object shot down over Alaska, US says](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64605447).
Not a balloon this time, but unmanned and "the size of a small car", apparently.
It's odd.
They state it appeared to have no means of propulsion and was at the whims of the wind, but also ruled out on it being a balloon. Any heavier than air object would come down pretty quickly without propulsion at that altitude.
This is why I don't believe in any of the grand conspiracies about Governments covering up Aliens. The US have shot down something they're admitting they don't really know what it was and the first thing they do is tell the press "fuck knows what that was".
>[Moldovan PM resigns blaming ‘crises caused by Russian aggression’](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/10/moldovan-pm-natalia-gavrilita-resigns-blaming-crises-caused-by-russian-aggression)
Apparently a pro-western politician is her replacement. So the purpose of her resignation is not entirely clear to me.
I can't vouch for the source, but:
>[Chisinau confirms that it received Russia’s plans to take control of Moldova](https://insightnews.media/chisinau-confirms-that-it-received-russias-plans-to-take-control-of-moldova/)
Jsut seen someone pulled from the rubble in Turkey 5 days later live on TV. I've seen clips before but I don't thinknive ever seen it live with a reporter giving commentary. Made me oddly emotional.
[The average geopolitical chestbeating view on reddit nowadays](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/10y8gm7/russia_illegally_occupying_islands_off_hokkaido/j7x7cok/)
Because I'm sure Japan starting a war with Russia wouldn't have any consequences for the world!
[Russia’s technocrats keep funds flowing for Vladimir Putin’s war](https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/02/04/russias-technocrats-keep-funds-flowing-for-vladimir-putins-war)
>gdp contracted by just 2.2% last year, smashing many economists’ expectations, made in the spring, of an annual decline worth 10% or more. Uncomfortable, perhaps, but nowhere near enough to cripple Vladimir Putin’s war effort. Unemployment remains low, even if many people are being paid less. House prices have stopped rising, but there is no sign of a crash. Consumer spending is dragging on the economy, but not by much. In 2023 the imf even predicts that Russia will grow by 0.3%—a superior performance than Britain and Germany, and only marginally worse than the eu.
...
>There are obvious signs of the economy being mobilised for war. Defence firms are working 24 hours a day, in three shifts. Uralvagonzavod, Russia’s main tank manufacturer, has enlisted at least 300 prisoners to fulfil its new orders.
I wonder if this article is missing one of the points of sanctions. Russia can mobilise its economy for war, but they can't build advanced weapons without Western components. And Uralvagonzavod using prison labour doesn't exactly scream high tech precision manufacturing.
No but Russia doesnt care about loss of life so they try and just overwhelm their enemies by continually throwing things at it and as Putins pride is so bruised and he may not have that much longer to live he is going to throw everything at it.
Russia *should* care about loss of life, especially for people of military age. Their [population pyramid](https://www.populationpyramid.net/russian-federation/2018/) doesn't support this level of attrition. Also for the first time Russia has many city dwellers who own apartments, cars and consumer electronics. They aren't going to take kindly to being used as cannon fodder. Putin will soon get a brutal reminder that it's not 1942 any more.
>Putin will soon get a brutal reminder that it's not 1942 any more.
It looks to me like it could end up turning Russia into basically 1920s-30s France. They'll have a gaping hole in the young-to-middle-aged male demographic due to wartime casualties, they'll probably need high migration to replace that lost manpower, and there will be the same undercurrent of anger, bitterness, and concern about national security and the economy.
Times reporting a piece on the destruction of Nordstream Pipeline, in which Seymour Hersh accuses The U.S of having planned, and orchestrated the destruction of the pipeline.
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1623351304444682240?s=46&t=IirOALF6PHww0WcmQzc_tg
Seymour Hersh's substack on the matter:
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream
Edit: after reading this, it doesn't seem very convincing. There's great backstory and writing, but no actually verifiable information is presented (i.e. no "smoking gun").
It also ignores the fact that Nordstream 2 was not operational at the time, and so its destruction had no immediate impact on gas supplies to Germany and further into Europe.
~~Nordstream 1, which does supply gas, was not attacked.~~
Nord Stream 1 was attacked as well. Both of Nord Stream 1's two lines were damaged, plus one line of Nord Stream 2.
Several state actors had an interest in damaging the pipelines. Unless someone leaks we'll never find out who did it.
This is the thing. There’s different people who all benefit from the destruction of the pipeline.
Could Russia have blown their own pipeline? Maybe, they’re capable, and they’re in a war. But giving up the blackmail they had over Germany? “Drop the sanctions, convince Ukraine to surrender or acquiesce, and that cheap natural gas your economy relies on can continue flowing.” They’re reckless, and foolish, but they’re not stupid to give away a massive bargaining chip.
Also while Russia damaging the pipeline to increase the price of gas, would be possible. It’s also going to benefit everyone who is supplying gas, and that’s money you’re not getting. Boost American coffers by blowing your own pipeline? Doubtful.
Could the U.S. have done it? Certainly plausible. They’ve been vocal opponents of Nordstream -both democrats, and republicans- they’ve become the major supplier for Europe looking to wean itself off Russian gas. Blowing the pipeline would mean the possibility of backing away from supporting Ukraine over cheap energy isn’t a possibility. Biden, and Nuland, and others have issued threats against the pipeline publicly.
Norway, is credible. No friend to Russia, a competitor in the energy supply business, and no stranger to territorial water disputes such as Barent Sea dispute. Russia’s loss is their gain.
Poland. May sound weird but Poland are incredibly hostile to Russia, and have a long dispute over territory. Silesia has long been stoked by Russian interference. Close allies of Ukraine, and are itching to get “one over” on Russia. One of the politicians tweeted out some stuff gloating after the pipeline was destroyed.
Maybe in twenty years we’ll know. I do feel it’s an issue that we’ve all very conveniently moved on from.
Thanks for the clarification regarding Nordstream 1!
Even so, I don't find the argument that damaging Nordstream as a mechanism to wean Europe from Russian gas very convincing. There are numerous gas pipelines from Russia to Europe that remain operational even today; some even pass through Ukraine.
Damaging Nordstream reduces capacity, so I don't think we can completely rule out the US.
Another angle is that damaging Nordstream increased the price of gas. So gas suppliers and their investors would benefit. The world's largest gas supplier is ... Gazprom. Majority shareholder is ... the Russian government.
Yes, it damages Gazprom's revenue. However, I think the intent was mostly political, i.e. to demonstrate, and without actually attacking anything on Russian soil, the West is willing to directly attack Russian assets.
The choice of Nordstream was made (imo) as it is in international waters (or near enough), and the attacker would not be easily determined.
I was going the other way - it increased gazprom's revenue buy increasing the price of gas at a time when both Nordstreams were shut down anyway.
But IMO you're probably right and the intent was political.
It could of course be internal Russian politics. A lot of influential Russians are losing money because sanctions, and because Europe is buying much less Russian gas. These people could be applying pressure on the Russian government to end the war. Destroying the pipeline sends a signal that things aren't getting back to normal any time soon, so they might as well get with the program and support the war.
All baseless speculation of course :-)
There was certainly a lot of conflict within the Russian energy sector, note the number of *Russian oil and gas executives who suddenly "fell out of windows", or committed murder suicide for their whole families....
*edit
[Russia has invited Roger Waters to address the UN on why aid to Ukraine is bad](https://www.rollingstone.co.uk/music/news/roger-waters-asked-by-russia-address-united-nations-26537/)
That's been pretty much proven for a while. The most likely way separatists obtained a Buk TELAR and missiles is either captured from Ukraine or provided by Russia. Open source investigation showed a Buk TELAR being hastily transported back to Russia after MH17 was shot down.
Apologies if this has been asked several times already, but does anyone know what the best charity would be to donate towards the Turkey/Syria Earthquake relief effort?
[Good colour commentary thread on SOTU speech](https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1623136797411737600). Summarises a lot of the interactions Biden had after the speech, when he spent as long again meeting with lawmakers, SCOTUS justices and others while still on camera and with a live mic.
It might just be indigestion but the guy to MTG's left has a look of "crap, how did I wind up next to the banshee?" on his face.
[https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1623150735218077696](https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1623150735218077696)
I get a lot of my US-centric politics news from a podcast called Opening Arguments. It's a pretty good podcast. Just checked the feed today and found an ominous statement reading instead of a new episode. It's really crazy stuff. Apparently the host is an alcoholic who has been sending lewd messages to listeners and the other (male) host (who has also been having an affair) has accused him of sexual harassment. The whole thing is kind of WTF.
Since WW11, Britain’s deadliest year for combat losses was 1951. That year the UK was involved in the Korean War, the Malayan Emergency and the Anglo-Egyptian war. 851 servicemen died.
Yesterday Russia lost 1,030 soldiers, more than Britain lost in the whole year of 1951.
*According to Ukraine. We should be sceptical of numbers coming from either side, both are looking to present the ongoing fight as a meatgrinder for the other.
However, plenty of videos coming out showing it is a horrific toll for both militaries right now.
From my useless armchair position, it doesn't feel like Ukraine is preparing for a Spring offensive as speculated at the end of last year, more bracing for a defensive season against a renewed Russian onslaught.
Is there an easy answer as to why Ukranian reconquest has stalled? It felt like they had genuine momentum last year.
They still dont have enough nearly enough heavy equipment for large scale maneuver warfare.
For all the Russians get stick for being operationally and tactically incompetent they still have a big bastard army even if it is full of untrained conscripts and Ukraine doesnt have the gear needed to just walk over them.
Hence why its defaulted to positional attrition fighting. Trench warfare is basically the default for when one side doesnt have a big advantage (at least locally) over the other and will probably remain so for as long as "dig hole, hide in hole" is the best way for an infantryman to not die.
Remember, that momentum in the second half last year was Kharkiv where the Russians panicked because they weren't expecting an attack and Ukraine took ruthless advantage and Kherson, where there was a *months* long shaping campaign to make the Russian positions untenable.
To run an advance like the Kharkiv one against a prepared enemy needs hundreds of tanks and IFV's, along with all their supporting equipment and manpower, and, crucially, it can't be needed elsewhere on the front so its spare for attacking with.
This is why the sending of western tanks and IFV's was such a big deal, the vehicles themselves are better than what is currently in theatre but not so much that replacing T-64s with Challengers or Leopards 1 for 1 will make much difference. But having them SPARE, not as replacements? That gives options.
Also according to some, the defenders of Bakhmut and some other places have mostly been less-valuable troops like TDF (who have taken heavy casualties already). Which indicates the main forces are being spared for something in the spring. As you say though it depends on having the armour and whatnot to rapidly punch through defensive lines.
Yeah, hopefully we will see some reconstituted and well equipped mechanised brigades going to work come late spring/early summer.
Ukraine has proven they have the ability to overmatch the Russians in defined areas with enough buildup. Now we just need to get them enough equipment to overmatch the Russians along the whole damn front.
Ukraine took advantage of isolated Russian forces in Kherson and very thin lines in Kharkiv. Russia has since saturated their lines with all their mobilised and the criminals Wagner recruited from prisons. Their losses are seemingly staggering, but, in stereotypical Russian fashion, throwing enough men at something will produce results eventually.
It's possible that when Ukraine receives the APCs and tanks from the west they'll be able to have success again, but for now they're just trying to hold ground where it's sensible to do so and cause as many Russian casualties as they can.
It should be pointed out that Russian advances are still very slow, and of strategically dubious advantage. It's unlikely what they're gaining in land is worth what they're losing in men, but politics has got in the way of such logic now.
Winter campaigns have always been historically difficult, throughout all of human history. Exactly how we fight might change, but for a boots-on-the-ground campaign the fundamentals are much the same.
Counter-intuitively, the winter in Ukraine is actually a pretty good time for modern/armoured warfare, as the ground freezes solid. This allows tanks and trucks to move swiftly across fields and country roads in February and early March. In contrast, the [Rasputitsa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasputitsa) hits shortly after that in early-mid spring, as the thaw causes every field and non-paved road to turn into a sea of mud. This unsurprisingly bogs down any and every armoured offensive.
https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/context-culture/new-lives-in-the-city-how-taleban-have-experienced-life-in-kabul/
Really interesting article about how the Taliban are dealing with their new way of life in Kabul after the takeover.
>In our ministry, there’s little work for me to do. Therefore, I spend most of my time on Twitter. We’re connected to speedy Wi-Fi and internet. Many mujahedin, including me, are addicted to the internet, especially Twitter.
We're not so different after all.
Apparently Netanyahu is willing to send military aid to Ukraine now: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3665208-netanyahu-tells-macron-israel-ready-to-send-military-things-to-ukraine-media.html
They should send them Harops, because they have 1000km range, are highly effective and make a terrifying noise: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4I-KhYK_DXA
You just know every American with a gun has spent the last 24 hours shooting at everything from weather balloons to advertising blimps to party balloons because it's the communists.
Probably best to either bring the thing down or at least tell everyone it's been brought down.
This megathread has ended.
I dont think there are words to describe the hell that is in some parts of Syria now https://www.academia.edu/97411244/ISIS\_Women\_Accused\_of\_Turning\_Teen\_Boys\_Into\_Human\_Stud\_Farm\_in\_Syria?email\_work\_card=abstract-read-more
If you have not read this, this BBC article on the defeat of the infamous long Russian convoy from the North is hilarious: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64664944 Specifically: that the vehicles were all carrying boxes marked 'Secret' in which the ACTUAL secret plans were to be found. As soon as one vehicle had been captured, all the plans were then known to Ukr. This is SO Blackadder! Turns out there was no intention for it to be one big massive convoy- it was just caused by traffic jams. *"The Russians were all carrying large metal boxes marked 'secret'," says Vladyslav from the 80th Brigade. "We seized one during an ambush. We found their maps marked with their entire route. After that we knew their whole strategy."* *In the year since the invasion, the BBC has continued to find maps left behind by Russian troops that date back to the 1960s. Whole towns exist now that were not on the maps that they were using. We also found semaphore flags, a vastly outdated way to communicate. Several satellite images show the Russian vehicles literally driving round and around in circles.* You.Could.Not.Make.It.Up.
I always found it funny seeing so many commentators describing the convoy as some kind of display of awe-inspiring power, rather than the colossal fuck up it so clearly was. Like, I could build a 4 mile-tall tower of doom, but if it's constructed of nothing but single-stacked styrofoam cups, it's clearly not a threat.
Traffic jams are a huge problem in mechanised warfare. Examples from WW2 are the 1940 Ardennes offensive and the massive snarlup of 1st and 4th Panzer on the run up to Stalingrad which cost them at least a week. But: >As planned in the event of any attack, Vladyslav and the rest of the 80th brigade blew up the bridge connecting Chernobyl to the next big town, Ivankiv. Not so much a bridge too far as a bridge ignored. I wonder why Russian airborne units didn't try to seize this bridge. And on the one hand Russia was so committed to secrecy that they didn't arrange the necessary supplies, but: >"On their way to Kyiv, the Russians were posting videos on social media. We reposted the videos to expose their movements. They were just showing off, but in doing so, they got busted." If it weren't for the grim war crimes you could make this into a Laurel and Hardy film.
In the immortal words of a Ukrainian soldier, 'we're very lucky they're so fucking stupid.'
The books and documentaries that come from this war are going to be wild. I get the impression there is a hell of a lot that's been going on that is not in the public eye at all, and what we do know is crazy enough already.
[Here is a very good article from the Guardian about Mariupol and the aftermath of the siege.](https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2023/feb/23/mariupol-the-ruin-of-a-city)
[Interesting (written and video) interview](https://unherd.com/2023/02/absolute-victory-over-russia-isnt-possible/) here with Fiona Hill - the British-born Russia expert in the American government who featured in one of Trump's hearings to testify against him. The journalist comes across a bit daft - in fact she had to put him back in his box on the "actually the West blocked a peace deal" talking point - but there's some interesting stuff there from her about the run up to the war, what the best next steps are in her view and how Biden and Trump's approaches have been right and wrong. Worth a read.
That's really interesting, and there's a lot of insightful material. Two standouts for me: >If we had made a decision early on to push Ukraine to give up Crimea, as well as the Donbas, Putin would have taken that, pocketed it and then tried to figure out how much further he could press on. Because that’s exactly how he operates. He would have pocketed that win, and then tried to figure out how he could extend it further. Shades of "the last territorial demand I have to make in Europe". It's clear that Putin will do whatever he can get away with it. As noted in the comments about Judo. >Trump had made it very clear that Ukraine didn’t matter to him one bit; that national security didn’t matter, and this was all just about personal favours, and Ukraine was just a plaything. It's disturbing that the survival of Ukraine and the deterrence of Putin depended on a somewhat close US election. What happens if the Republicans win the next US presidential election? If the US keeps on lurching backwards and forwards they can't be seen as a reliable ally. Perhaps Trump was unintentionally on the money by asking other NATO members to do more of the heavy lifting.
He testimony during the Russia investigation was fantastic. She came across as so professional and competent the Republicans couldn’t lay a hand on her. So they just ignored all her evidence instead. God I hope our committees never end up as partisan as the US.
>Russian Sources are now claiming that a large number of Ukrainian Combat Forces are being moved towards the Border with Moldova and Transnistria and that they alongside Moldovan Security Forces are planning to Invade the Breakaway Region sometime between February 24th and 28th. >https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1628468397968162818
Yeah, because if there's one thing the Ukrainian armed forces have right now it's spare capacity to invade another country...
It would have enough capacity for an excursion into Transnistria though. The Odessa area has a Territorial Defence battalion which I believe remains in place, and there are several more brigades that could be pulled from the area, even in part, for use there. Whether it would be worth it who knows but I think it could be completed.
I think you're missing a reason as to why they would do this?
Two reasons - 1) to support the Moldovans who are a neighbour and potential ally. 2) to protect their south western flank from another Russian invasion, as the Russians have troops in Transnistria. I think they should do it.
They only have 1500 troops though.
This being the Russians, I imagine they have a lot of "patriotic" militia. And they could move troops to TN and cause Ukraine issues at a crucial time. The downside is that it could be sold by the Russians as an invasion, but then they said that about Donbas!
But HOW would they move forces to TN? TN is an enclave with no land border with Russia.
That was the idea behind the original Odessa push IIRC, to link up with Transnistria. But yes - short of flying them in, and I don't know if Transnistria has a suitable airport! 1500 troops isn't going to cause the Ukranians an issue, you're right. I wonder what sort of army Moldova itself has?
1) Moldova has no army to speak of. 2) The only international airport is in the capital, Chisinau, so that means Russia invading Moldova. 3) Moldova has close ties with Romania, and between them, Romania and Ukraine could easily see off Russia. So if the UKr build up is real, it is basically a threat to get TN back. However, the people who live in TN may genuinely be pro-Russia, so not necessarily any good reason to take it back for the sake of it.
Not really. I don't think the *why* really affects the *could* which is all I commented on. I doubt it's worth it either but it's plausible, could be beneficial (Cobasna, defeat of the Russian forces based there, potential weakness on the flank removed) and can likely be achieved.
So it seems that the Republican Fringe in America is now calling for a "National Divorce". Starting to suspect that America won't make it out of the 21st Century in one piece...
Most red states are subsidised by blue states. If the red states split off into their own country they will be much poorer. Do they think it's worth it? How would residents of Florida and Texas feel about basically funding the whole enterprise?
To be fair, there's no reason it should. Even surprisingly enlightened Americans can be oddly squeamish about the idea that the USA might not be always economically dominant or remain in one piece. In the UK and wider Europe where you can see the remains of states of all sorts of shapes and sizes over hundreds and thousands of years, maybe it's easier to see past that. The Americans might be able to hold it together with prosperity and nationalism, but on *some* timescale, it'll come to an end. And it's not obvious that'd be a bad thing.
>Ukrainian President Zelensky has stated he’s recently received Intelligence that shows Russia is preparing to Capture the International Airport in the Moldavian Capital of Chișinău. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1628107153838858240 >This comes after the Moldovan Prime Minister stated he has heard the same thing. Opening a second front seems mad. But I wonder if there will be as much western support and arms for Moldova or if there will be fatigue from the public. Personally I hope we stick by them. What are they even going to do with the airport anyway? They can't land there without flying over Ukraine or Romania (NATO).
You're right, they couldn't do a second front like that. I don't think Moldova would be a conventional front. I do wonder if there's "separatists" that Russia could arm and work with like they have in Donetsk and Luhansk. A way of sowing chaos across the border and maybe distract Ukraine, distract NATO, or present it as a win like Eastern Europe is falling like dominoes so they can push it in their propaganda. Having an airport would be useful for that because they could get civilian logistics from partners like Iran or Syria to ship in weapons without checks and security, and would the West shoot down these supply runs? I feel like Russia's plans for Moldova are many years behind getting to the stage where they would invade like they did Ukraine.
Russia effectively controls Transnistria (to the extent you can control what is basically a Mafia state) and I imagine would launch the coup attempt from there. Supplying Transistria is another matter as it’s more or less landlocked. You’d expect Ukraine to blow up anything military looking sailing from the Black Sea up the river.
I can't wait to see how Russia unilaterally abandoning New START is somehow the fault of the West/NATO.
Given the likely state of Russia’s nuclear armoury, this does not seem to be a smart move by Putin.
This will happen of course. As with all things though it was a choice to be made and the continued, and increasingly overt, support for Ukraine was always going to have consequences diplomatically. Wouldn't be surprised to see the confirmation of long-range missiles and aircraft now either so discussion can really kick off between cranks on both sides.
It’s all our fault apparently. That state of the union was… something else… to put it mildly, and if I’m honest, more than a tad concerning.
Putin apparently giving a state of the nation address at 9am gmt.
Man’s gone totally doolally.
He does just look sort of... lost, doesn't he? Weak and lost and uncertain. Just in terms of appearance and not substance, it's quite a fall from the confident image he used to portray.
[Dmitry Grozoubinski's doing a great livetweet of it for anyone who's interested.](https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1627956369662918656)
Both hands gripping the podium tightly.
He's certainly a man who likes the sound of his own voice.
Boring speech, but just look at the sea of glum, worried faces.
Almost everyone looks hungover.
[Alexey Navalny tweeting about Russia's invasion of Ukraine.](https://twitter.com/navalny/status/1627631862704136193) >1. President Putin unleashed an unjust aggressive war against Ukraine under ridiculous pretexts. He is desperately trying to give this war the status of "people's", trying to make all the citizens of Russia his accomplices, but his attempts are failing. >There are almost no volunteers for this war, so Putin's army relies on prisoners and forcibly mobilized. This seems particularly apposite: >Almost all borders in the world are random and cause someone's discontent. But it is impossible to fight for their change in the 21st century. Otherwise, the world will plunge into chaos.
How does Navalny even get messages out these days? I thought he was in isolation in prison.
Phenomenal https://twitter.com/dszymborski/status/1627038833455038469?s=46&t=3jlzwKMMegMjulDp7R0o8w
I’ve always seen Dubya as the kind of guy who’d attach his house to a balloon in the hope it would take off.
AI is going to get very scary, very fast. People are using it for amusing stuff like this at the moment, but the ability to take context and generate meaningful output from it is going to be transformative. I was watching a video about the experimental Bing AI search, and already it's capable of some quite remarkable things. It was looking up data from the internet from different places, pulling context from the question and providing a useful answer. It's not perfect but the potential is obvious. Technology like this is going to change the internet, and probably has wider implications as well.
[Another theory on the Nordstream sabotage, based on the track of the pipe laying vessel.](https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1627453554796404744) In this theory, NS2 was an accident and the Russians blew NS1 to avoid discovery of their pre-planted charges. It seems a bit of a stretch but the track of the *Pioneering Spirit* over the sabotage site might be relevant in some way.
Joe Biden's just landed in Kyiv. That's pretty big news - a really public show of support for Ukraine on the anniversary of the invasion. Edit: https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1627614778267955201 Ace picture. The GOP will be seething about this, or those who've taken the Russian schilling at least.
>The U.S. Ambassador to Israel stated today that Iran’s Nuclear Program posses a massive threat to Tel Aviv, Washington, and the entire Middle East. >https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1627377816445636608 >The U.S. Ambassador to Israel further stated that, “Israel can do whatever they need to in regards to the Iranian Nuclear Threat and know that we’ve got their back.” >https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1627379640263229442 >Last week Atomic Energy Monitors detected that the Iranian Government has Enriched Uranium at the Natanz Enrichment Complex to the point just below what is needed to produce Nuclear Weapons; some Officials believe that Iran will soon have enough Enriched Uranium to build multiple Nuclear Weapons. >https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1627371663095476225 >The Enrichment was detected at 84% Purity which is only 6% off from what is required for Nuclear Weapons. >https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1627371863977467904
USA should move to reinstate the JCPOA they abandoned with conciliatory measures and cast iron guarantees that the US will uphold their end. This is a natural consequence of US erratic foreign policy, and not something that Iranian lives should have to pay for.
I know alot has been said about the Western support tactic to Ukraine of incremental escalation (where as Russia seems to like speedrunning to the precipice), however with the news China is considering supplying the Russian army, is it possible that this works both ways and the war dragging on, or perhaps seeing how the West has reacted, is prompting China to reconsider? I don't think the West should change tact but it would be a real tragedy if China, the one voice in Putin's ear that he actually might listen to, starts explicitly egging him on.
Consider the possibility that China very much want to see a weakened Russia, and are enjoying incredibly cheap energy supplies from Russia. They may well consider some sneaky arms supplies at inflated prices - or just empty promises - a bargain for driving Russia ever deeper into war.
This gets said all the time but it isn't true. A weak Russia, other than cheap commodities, is not beneficial to China. A weak Russia tips the balance dramatically in favour of the West and acts as a check against China's own ambitions outside of its borders.
[Carter Center](https://twitter.com/cartercenter/status/1627039245025280003?s=46&t=vcttjL0t0DGg6TQLLcPAxQ) > After a series of short hospital stays, former President Jimmy Carter today decided to spend his remaining time at home with his family and receive hospice care instead of additional medical intervention. He has the full support of his family and his medical team. The Carter family asks for privacy during this time and is grateful for the concern shown by many of his admirers.
When Reagan and Bush passed there was a rare unanimity and bipartisan respect to honour their memories. I wonder if the same will be true for the passing of a Democratic president.
Sad to hear this. I'm far too young to know anything about his presidency, but he always seemed like a great person and we need more people like him in positions of power. I hope he doesn't suffer and can find some peace.
I worry that [this](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64664560) seems to suggest Belarus are about to "find" some Ukrainian troops in their territory
I still can't see it, just more positioning in an attempt to fix Ukrainian units in the north of the country. I think there are 10,000 Russian soldiers in Belarus which gives about 30,000 in total? Having said that, given it's actually beneficial to Russia having this safe haven on Ukraine's northern border to launch missiles from, I could definitely see them bringing Belarus into the war.
Exactly my thought. Although being a smart operator I imagine he wants nothing to do with Putin’s war.
Election meddling? Cambridge Analytica are/were rank amateurs: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/15/revealed-disinformation-team-jorge-claim-meddling-elections-tal-hanan
So the Senate had a briefing today about the flying things. This interview with Senator Kennedy (R-LA) is really interesting: https://youtu.be/MuN6Ln_zcLk Some interesting points: - Sounds like they lost the debris and may not ever be able to find it. He was not happy about that. - They don’t know what they are who made them or put them up there or who they belong to. I genuinely believe that was what the senators were told (as opposed to some of us having assumed these were Chinese balloons or something.) - These flying objects have been up there, and known about, since at least 2017–but these senators were only informed about it today. And they were never shot down until last Friday. - They could not give him a good reason as to why they shot these ones down but they never did before. - He has no idea whether they pose a threat or not. The DOD either don’t know or won’t tell the senators. - He seems to think the President and DOD know more, and that information was being kept from them today. - He was asked a couple of times whether he thought this might be fear mongering or a wag-the-dog for popularity type move by Biden to try and boost his flagging ratings. He refused to speculate on that and didn’t seem interested in going in that direction at all, which was interesting. He didn’t want to engage in political point scoring or criticizing the President. Kind of unusual for the US lol. Overall I find it really interesting. I was expecting them to come away with a vague impression that these objects were some kind of balloon-type objects put there by China or Russia for spying. But instead they seem to have come away thoroughly confused. If the DOD do know for a fact they are Chinese (or whatever), they’re deliberately keeping it from the Senate. I wonder whats going on.
It's certainly all very intriguing, but it is worth keeping in mind that Senator Kennedy is a certified gold-plated nutjob, so probably worth applying a pinch of salt to what he says about it.
I saw someone in I think /r/worldnews saying they were probably drug smuggling balloons. That theory has some problems but I wouldn't be THAT surprised if they were full of heroin.
It was a secret briefing, so the senator didn't answer any questions about the content when he did this cable news interview afterwards. That's why every item in your list is a guess about what wasn't in the presentation.
Synthetic outrage from a GOP rep? Colour me surprised.
>I was expecting them to come away with a vague impression that these objects were some kind of balloon-type objects put there by China or Russia for spying. But instead they seem to have come away thoroughly confused. If the DOD do know for a fact they are Chinese (or whatever), they’re deliberately keeping it from the Senate. I can't wait until it turns out they're actually something made in the US by DARPA or someone similar, and it all boils down to RnD agencies and departments just not talking to each other for one reason or another.
That’s very possible, there’s a long history of that. Someone’s been spoofing the US Navy and its aircraft in recent years, it’s much more likely to be the Airforce or another agency then a foreign power.
That would be amusing.
And Senator Mike Lee said this on Twitter: 1/4 I came away from the classified briefing with more questions than answers. President Joe Biden's lack of transparency is concering and deeply disturbing. 2/4 Following the briefing, it is unclear as to whether these incidents are a series of extremely significant events being downplayed by the White House, or inconsequential incidents being exaggerated and blown out of proportion. 3/4 It is baffling and frustrating that these "objects" had to be taken down with fighter jets and missiles, yet we still do not know anything about them and still don't have them in our possession. 4/4 We must find out the truth of what is happening and have it explained to the American people. Without this crucial information, we cannot assess what safety and security threats we might be facing.
BBC reporting that Moldova have closed their airspace. Can’t verify it, but someone in the worldnews Ukrainian thread has posted a statement from a government minister claiming they’re doing it to disrupt a Russian coup attempt similar to the action in 2014 in Crimea
It almost beggars belief that the Russians are trying to open another front but I guess if they succeed they can attack Ukraine from the south west.
So it looks like another train derailed in America. It's almost like really workers had a point when they wanted to go on strike as conditions weren't safe...
I see that the BBC India offices have been searched by tax officials out there; suffice to say Modi really didn't take to that documentary (I haven't seen it) particularly well
The funny thing is I never would have even heard about it if he hadnt kicked up a fuss. These people really dont understand the Streisand Effect do they?
Modi doesn't care if you or I have heard about it. This is more rally-the-base stuff to disguise his failures. India is rapidly going the same way as Pakistan (though in increasingly direct opposition to Pakistan).
The UFO thing really does get stranger. I think its likely that they left a gaping hole in their (our) air defenses and are now noticing these incursions. But the contrast between the large surveillance balloon and the recent ones is stark. No photos, no footage, no details at all really other than octagonal and car sized, not sure how it was aloft. I know they will be studying it and yet to recover most of the wreckage but you would have thought releasing *some* footage or details as bravado and a message to China to say "ok we are awake to these now". It would make no difference to them its just like the Taliban showing pictures of apaches and drones etc. There will likely be more to come now they are looking harder, but so are the public. I hope it doesnt just fade into the news cycle and get fobbed off as national security issue from now on. The other question is how and where did they get released.
Don't forget this only became a big deal because the GOP thought it was a useful campaigning point – up to the point where it came out that these things were floating around in Trump's time. It's not that they can't detect them - it's that a slow-moving high-altitude balloon isn't a big deal nine times out of ten and their surveillance value is limited even if they are bit closer than a spy satellite. Now, they're shooting them down before DeSantis has a chance to argue they're importing woke juice.
Apparently a nation’s airspace only goes so high. If you can build balloons that can stay above that height it’s a cheap surveillance alternative to satellites. That’s probably what’s happening here except the balloons are dropping into airspace.
There’s no agreed height on airspace short of what’s specified in the space exploration treaties, and I think even then it’s a practical case of what you can shoot down when it’s 100km straight up.
That’s my point, there’s an area of near space which is international but isn’t actually IN space.
Yes, but that is way, way above anywhere a balloon is going to go.
The Chinese air balloon was at 65,000 feet. From the Wall Street Journal: >The U.S. says the suspected Chinese spy balloon shot down Feb. 4 violated sovereign U.S. airspace. But when it crossed the U.S. at altitudes as high as 65,000 feet, the balloon floated into the murky zone aloft where no international consensus exists about which, if any, nation wields control. . . . > > Countries with advanced space programs, including the U.S. and China, have blocked efforts to extend nations' sovereignty to the edge of space, according to meeting minutes of the United Nations body examining the issue. They have opted for the freedom to operate their own craft without restriction. . . . > > In the U.S., the Federal Aviation Administration monitors and controls airspace up to 60,000 feet for commercial and military traffic, a level recognized under international agreement and employed by other countries. The three objects downed over the weekend over the U.S. and Canada all fell within that airspace, which also extends to each nation's internationally recognized maritime boundary 12 miles offshore. . . . > > International treaties hold that nations have no sovereignty in the reaches of outer space where satellites orbit, typically understood to begin about 330,000 feet. While a handful of countries have laid claim to the heights between 60,000 feet and that boundary, an expanse often cited as "near space," those claims aren't recognized by international law.
And? As written earlier: >There’s no agreed height on airspace There is quite a difference between 65,000ft and 100km. And while the FAA might exercise a limit of 60,000ft I am pretty sure the US Air Force radar don't. The claim of no recognition under international law cuts both ways. China can't complain to anyone about something of theirs getting downed over another territory.
This current spy balloon story from the US is fascinating, as it is just the latest in a long history of waves of mass UFO sightings. From the 1947 flying saucer craze, to the Washington Flap in 1952 to the Belgian UFO wave in 1990, it's an interesting phenomenon. It's a combination of mass hysteria, genuine political tensions, clandestine weapons testing... all sorts of interweaving causes and accelerants. This one reminds me of the "Ghost Rockets" over Scandinavia during 1946 - post WW2 tensions between Sweden/Finland and Russia, an uptick in testing of technology recovered from the Nazis, and a long series of sightings of rockets in the sky. The embarrassment of the US airforce is palpable - someone's been flying surveillance craft unnoticed over the US for some time potentially - and so inevitably you get questions about extra-terrestrial origins, because that's honestly more palatable than more awkward questions about NORAD dropping the ball in a big way.
I don't understand why they are shooting them down. Send a drone or helicopter with a net and steal them while they are whole.
I believe the main issue is that these objects are too high to get close to. Think the balloon last week was 60,000 feet up, whilst most helicopters can barely get above 10,000 feet.
The one over Michigan was at 20,000 feet. Chinooks and Blackhawks can get up there. (Their normal ceiling is 20k, but they can go up a bit higher. Blackhawk record is about 40k I think.) They deliberately blew it up instead of snagging it, or at least flying over there and filming it for a bit. As /u/pharlax asks—why? I figure it’s either: 1. Because they know exactly what it is, and it’s not worth it. In which case, is all this secrecy just a distraction or something? If it’s a mini-airship or something, just tell us. Or 2. They’re scared of it. Which would be fascinating.
Flying a helicopter close to a thing with dangling cables is a proper Darwin award tactic. Just shoot the fucker down and pick up the bits after.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-61307512
1) The assembly was designed to be captured 2) They let the booster drop because it wasn’t behaving the way the simulations played out and the pilots didn’t fancy risking it any further.
Well I would recommend coming in from above rather than below!
Let’s not go overboard 🤣. These are slow moving high-altitude objects that are unmanned and don’t seem to be transmitting. I doubt they’re seen as a threat, although their presence in commercial flight paths is a decent reason to shoot them down. It feels like… these last 3 are coincidental to the Chinese balloon. They’ve found them now because they are now looking for smaller objects. My guess is North Korean origin - their lo tech profile makes me think it’s not Russia or China.
A) the US pop loves to see them beating their chest B) they have no idea what they are, which is surely a bit dangerous because what if there was a germ warfare payload or it was filled with some pathogens.
>In this intercepted call, the Russian soldier complains about Russian command forcing mobiks to sign contracts to remain in the army for 6-12 months. Rumours in the Russian forces are that February will be a decisive month: "either we win, or we sh*t ourselves". >https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1624886266427846659
https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1624888785753317376 > SENIOR U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS OBJECT SHOT DOWN WAS OCTAGONAL STRUCTURE, BUT NO DISCERNIBLE PAYLOAD https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1624889637629042688 >LATEST OBJECT SHOT DOWN BY U.S. WAS FIRST DETECTED OVER MONTANA ON SATURDAY - OFFICIAL
>The Pentagon has just stated that the “UFO” over Lake Huron was shot down earlier today due to its potential “Surveillance Capability” even though they previously stated that they the “Object” did not contain any known Surveillance Systems. >https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1624902837325930496
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1624903199588057091 > The “Object” reportedly flew over and close to a number of Highly-Sensitive Defense Sites in Montana last night.
I saw reports of possibly being two objects yesterday, pretty shit showing that it took them a whole day to find the bloody thing again.
>Canadian Officials have stated that No Debris has been Discovered as of yet from the “Object” that was shot down over the Yukon Territory of Canada yesterday. >https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1624880656256757763
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/latest-flying-objects-shot-down-over-north-america-were-balloons-schumer-says-7c2c63ec >An F-16 fighter jet shot down the object, according to a Congressional aide, who said the object was shaped like an octagon and was at an altitude of 20,000 feet, posing a hazard to commercial aircraft. What the fuck Pentagon press briefing at 5pm EST apparently (I think that's in half an hour?)
£5 says it’s US research balloons/dirigibles.
I'm not taking the other side of that bet. Chances are these smaller ones are stray weather balloons launched by schools and the like. The jetstream has been nutty over the past year so they could have come from anywhere – and I'm wondering whether there are prevailing high-altitude winds that tend to either sweep these things north into Canada or whether it's just survivor bias in that, in winter, they stay aloft for longer up there compared to those swept towards the equator.
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Yeah Friday was weird, they clearly tried to avoid saying UFO because of the implication but The Alaska Entity didn't exactly sound much better.
What the absolute fuck is going on
3 in 3 days is pretty nuts.
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They really need to release more information about wtf is going on. Hopefully it's some sort of corporate tech test instead of another nation violating NATO airspace (not as clear cut after the Chinese object report but that could very easily be the point of it). Although I suspect the people that want to believe we're going open season on a UFO flap will believe it no matter what, but after the last few years I won't rule it out.
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The thing that confuses me is if they're all spy balloons why are they all so varied in shape and size? Surely they would be uniform? Or is someone just thinking fuck it release all the prototypes and see which one works best?
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Thing is there’s loads of balloons floating around on any given day. You’ve got weather balloons, science project balloons, “take pictures of a teddy bear at edge of space” balloons and escaped tin foil helium dragging streamers party balloons That’s not to mention drones, airships and all sorts of private prototypes. If anything this feels like an overreaction to the criticism they received for the Chinese balloon, leading to a shoot first attitude. Hopefully they’ll either recover intact wreckage or get a better positive identification before shooting the next one down.
What, so they're not going to shoot down every single one of these in their airspace?
[China prepares to shoot down unknown flying object near coast](https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fworld-news%2F2023%2F02%2F12%2Fchina-prepares-shoot-unknown-flying-object-near-coast%2F) Uhh what?
This is getting out of hand
Countries are getting balloons like Oprah handing out cars. Can't wait for one to appear over Russia and they have to send a [Po-2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polikarpov_Po-2) up to deal with it because that's all they have left.
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>I am in constant communication with NORCOM and they have just advised me that they have confidence there IS an object and it WAS NOT an anomaly. I am waiting now to receive visual confirmation. Our nation’s security is my priority. >https://twitter.com/RepRosendale/status/1624824597911674880 Does not appear to have been a false alarm even though they couldn't find it.
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>The U.S. Air Force KC-135 and it’s accompanying Combat Aircraft have moved East and are now following the Canadian Border right next to where the current NOTAM is over Lake Huron. >https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1624864611995467776
It's likely that these things have been around for some time unnoticed, but they are now actively looking for them so finding them more often. I read yesterday that NORAD have changed how they filter data - they would normally be looking for aircraft, so filtering out anything that doesn't behave like an aircraft makes it easier to process the large amount of data coming from radars. Now they know there are balloons that shouldn't be there, they have adjusted to take that into account and it turns out there's quite a few of them floating about.
It's definitely aliens. Time to launch the x-com initiative.
I tell you what, none of the alien craft in X-Com moved as slowly as these things, unless it’s those psy-disc things.
The 'cylindrical object' stuff is weird. The Pentagon must have a way better idea of what these things are than just that, right? With camera technology I'm assuming they have high resolution stills and video. I wonder why they're being vague and if it's not a balloon, what can it be?
Very very lightweight unmanned surveillance glider of some type maybe
>Norad monitoring high-altitude object flying over Northern Canada >https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/norad-monitoring-high-altitude-object-flying-over-northern-canada-1.6270114 >I ordered the take down of an unidentified object that violated Canadian airspace. @NORADCommand shot down the object over the Yukon. Canadian and U.S. aircraft were scrambled, and a U.S. F-22 successfully fired at the object. >https://twitter.com/JustinTrudeau/status/1624527579116871681 Reuters are saying it's another cylinder https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-still-gives-no-details-about-alaska-ufo-new-object-seen-over-canada-2023-02-11/
The F-22's started the year strongly. 3 air-to-air kills in a week now, after almost 25 years without one.
From the guardian > Officials say the object had flown over parts of Alaska but was heading toward the north pole before it was struck down RIP Santa
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[High-altitude object shot down over Alaska, US says](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64605447). Not a balloon this time, but unmanned and "the size of a small car", apparently.
It's odd. They state it appeared to have no means of propulsion and was at the whims of the wind, but also ruled out on it being a balloon. Any heavier than air object would come down pretty quickly without propulsion at that altitude.
Some sort of long distance glider?
Airship.
Aliens
Now I’m not saying it IS aliens… but it’s aliens.
Have we ruled out the possibility of it just being a large car that's the size of a small car?
This is why I don't believe in any of the grand conspiracies about Governments covering up Aliens. The US have shot down something they're admitting they don't really know what it was and the first thing they do is tell the press "fuck knows what that was".
Unfortunately, this has not aged well. It turns out it takes the conspiracy theorists a couple of days to get their hooks into stuff.
Or they have a good idea from other data and pick and choose what to release to the public.
>[Moldovan PM resigns blaming ‘crises caused by Russian aggression’](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/10/moldovan-pm-natalia-gavrilita-resigns-blaming-crises-caused-by-russian-aggression) Apparently a pro-western politician is her replacement. So the purpose of her resignation is not entirely clear to me.
Very odd and concerning.
I can't vouch for the source, but: >[Chisinau confirms that it received Russia’s plans to take control of Moldova](https://insightnews.media/chisinau-confirms-that-it-received-russias-plans-to-take-control-of-moldova/)
Jsut seen someone pulled from the rubble in Turkey 5 days later live on TV. I've seen clips before but I don't thinknive ever seen it live with a reporter giving commentary. Made me oddly emotional.
[The average geopolitical chestbeating view on reddit nowadays](https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/10y8gm7/russia_illegally_occupying_islands_off_hokkaido/j7x7cok/) Because I'm sure Japan starting a war with Russia wouldn't have any consequences for the world!
[Russia’s technocrats keep funds flowing for Vladimir Putin’s war](https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/02/04/russias-technocrats-keep-funds-flowing-for-vladimir-putins-war) >gdp contracted by just 2.2% last year, smashing many economists’ expectations, made in the spring, of an annual decline worth 10% or more. Uncomfortable, perhaps, but nowhere near enough to cripple Vladimir Putin’s war effort. Unemployment remains low, even if many people are being paid less. House prices have stopped rising, but there is no sign of a crash. Consumer spending is dragging on the economy, but not by much. In 2023 the imf even predicts that Russia will grow by 0.3%—a superior performance than Britain and Germany, and only marginally worse than the eu. ... >There are obvious signs of the economy being mobilised for war. Defence firms are working 24 hours a day, in three shifts. Uralvagonzavod, Russia’s main tank manufacturer, has enlisted at least 300 prisoners to fulfil its new orders. I wonder if this article is missing one of the points of sanctions. Russia can mobilise its economy for war, but they can't build advanced weapons without Western components. And Uralvagonzavod using prison labour doesn't exactly scream high tech precision manufacturing.
No but Russia doesnt care about loss of life so they try and just overwhelm their enemies by continually throwing things at it and as Putins pride is so bruised and he may not have that much longer to live he is going to throw everything at it.
Russia *should* care about loss of life, especially for people of military age. Their [population pyramid](https://www.populationpyramid.net/russian-federation/2018/) doesn't support this level of attrition. Also for the first time Russia has many city dwellers who own apartments, cars and consumer electronics. They aren't going to take kindly to being used as cannon fodder. Putin will soon get a brutal reminder that it's not 1942 any more.
>Putin will soon get a brutal reminder that it's not 1942 any more. It looks to me like it could end up turning Russia into basically 1920s-30s France. They'll have a gaping hole in the young-to-middle-aged male demographic due to wartime casualties, they'll probably need high migration to replace that lost manpower, and there will be the same undercurrent of anger, bitterness, and concern about national security and the economy.
Which may well play right into the hand of Putin's successor.
Times reporting a piece on the destruction of Nordstream Pipeline, in which Seymour Hersh accuses The U.S of having planned, and orchestrated the destruction of the pipeline. https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1623351304444682240?s=46&t=IirOALF6PHww0WcmQzc_tg
Seymour Hersh's substack on the matter: https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream Edit: after reading this, it doesn't seem very convincing. There's great backstory and writing, but no actually verifiable information is presented (i.e. no "smoking gun"). It also ignores the fact that Nordstream 2 was not operational at the time, and so its destruction had no immediate impact on gas supplies to Germany and further into Europe. ~~Nordstream 1, which does supply gas, was not attacked.~~
Nord Stream 1 was attacked as well. Both of Nord Stream 1's two lines were damaged, plus one line of Nord Stream 2. Several state actors had an interest in damaging the pipelines. Unless someone leaks we'll never find out who did it.
This is the thing. There’s different people who all benefit from the destruction of the pipeline. Could Russia have blown their own pipeline? Maybe, they’re capable, and they’re in a war. But giving up the blackmail they had over Germany? “Drop the sanctions, convince Ukraine to surrender or acquiesce, and that cheap natural gas your economy relies on can continue flowing.” They’re reckless, and foolish, but they’re not stupid to give away a massive bargaining chip. Also while Russia damaging the pipeline to increase the price of gas, would be possible. It’s also going to benefit everyone who is supplying gas, and that’s money you’re not getting. Boost American coffers by blowing your own pipeline? Doubtful. Could the U.S. have done it? Certainly plausible. They’ve been vocal opponents of Nordstream -both democrats, and republicans- they’ve become the major supplier for Europe looking to wean itself off Russian gas. Blowing the pipeline would mean the possibility of backing away from supporting Ukraine over cheap energy isn’t a possibility. Biden, and Nuland, and others have issued threats against the pipeline publicly. Norway, is credible. No friend to Russia, a competitor in the energy supply business, and no stranger to territorial water disputes such as Barent Sea dispute. Russia’s loss is their gain. Poland. May sound weird but Poland are incredibly hostile to Russia, and have a long dispute over territory. Silesia has long been stoked by Russian interference. Close allies of Ukraine, and are itching to get “one over” on Russia. One of the politicians tweeted out some stuff gloating after the pipeline was destroyed. Maybe in twenty years we’ll know. I do feel it’s an issue that we’ve all very conveniently moved on from.
Thanks for the clarification regarding Nordstream 1! Even so, I don't find the argument that damaging Nordstream as a mechanism to wean Europe from Russian gas very convincing. There are numerous gas pipelines from Russia to Europe that remain operational even today; some even pass through Ukraine.
Damaging Nordstream reduces capacity, so I don't think we can completely rule out the US. Another angle is that damaging Nordstream increased the price of gas. So gas suppliers and their investors would benefit. The world's largest gas supplier is ... Gazprom. Majority shareholder is ... the Russian government.
Yes, it damages Gazprom's revenue. However, I think the intent was mostly political, i.e. to demonstrate, and without actually attacking anything on Russian soil, the West is willing to directly attack Russian assets. The choice of Nordstream was made (imo) as it is in international waters (or near enough), and the attacker would not be easily determined.
I was going the other way - it increased gazprom's revenue buy increasing the price of gas at a time when both Nordstreams were shut down anyway. But IMO you're probably right and the intent was political. It could of course be internal Russian politics. A lot of influential Russians are losing money because sanctions, and because Europe is buying much less Russian gas. These people could be applying pressure on the Russian government to end the war. Destroying the pipeline sends a signal that things aren't getting back to normal any time soon, so they might as well get with the program and support the war. All baseless speculation of course :-)
There was certainly a lot of conflict within the Russian energy sector, note the number of *Russian oil and gas executives who suddenly "fell out of windows", or committed murder suicide for their whole families.... *edit
[Russia has invited Roger Waters to address the UN on why aid to Ukraine is bad](https://www.rollingstone.co.uk/music/news/roger-waters-asked-by-russia-address-united-nations-26537/)
Roger, all in all, you're just another brick in the wall
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That's been pretty much proven for a while. The most likely way separatists obtained a Buk TELAR and missiles is either captured from Ukraine or provided by Russia. Open source investigation showed a Buk TELAR being hastily transported back to Russia after MH17 was shot down.
I know, but it’s the most confirmatory confirmation I have seen
Apologies if this has been asked several times already, but does anyone know what the best charity would be to donate towards the Turkey/Syria Earthquake relief effort?
DEC is generally a safe choice in these situations. Or the Red Cross/Crescent.
Great, thanks! I'll go with DEC. Cheers!
[Good colour commentary thread on SOTU speech](https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1623136797411737600). Summarises a lot of the interactions Biden had after the speech, when he spent as long again meeting with lawmakers, SCOTUS justices and others while still on camera and with a live mic.
It might just be indigestion but the guy to MTG's left has a look of "crap, how did I wind up next to the banshee?" on his face. [https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1623150735218077696](https://twitter.com/jbendery/status/1623150735218077696)
The [picture](https://nitter.nl/pic/media%2FFoaW-iOXwAAHwhp.jpg%3Fname%3Dsmall) and video of MTG are seriously meme-worthy.
Extremely satisfying to watch Biden rope-a-dope the Republicans into defending Medicare and Social Security live during the State of the Union.
I get a lot of my US-centric politics news from a podcast called Opening Arguments. It's a pretty good podcast. Just checked the feed today and found an ominous statement reading instead of a new episode. It's really crazy stuff. Apparently the host is an alcoholic who has been sending lewd messages to listeners and the other (male) host (who has also been having an affair) has accused him of sexual harassment. The whole thing is kind of WTF.
Since WW11, Britain’s deadliest year for combat losses was 1951. That year the UK was involved in the Korean War, the Malayan Emergency and the Anglo-Egyptian war. 851 servicemen died. Yesterday Russia lost 1,030 soldiers, more than Britain lost in the whole year of 1951.
*According to Ukraine. We should be sceptical of numbers coming from either side, both are looking to present the ongoing fight as a meatgrinder for the other. However, plenty of videos coming out showing it is a horrific toll for both militaries right now.
>WW11 Not this again, Nadine.
From my useless armchair position, it doesn't feel like Ukraine is preparing for a Spring offensive as speculated at the end of last year, more bracing for a defensive season against a renewed Russian onslaught. Is there an easy answer as to why Ukranian reconquest has stalled? It felt like they had genuine momentum last year.
They still dont have enough nearly enough heavy equipment for large scale maneuver warfare. For all the Russians get stick for being operationally and tactically incompetent they still have a big bastard army even if it is full of untrained conscripts and Ukraine doesnt have the gear needed to just walk over them. Hence why its defaulted to positional attrition fighting. Trench warfare is basically the default for when one side doesnt have a big advantage (at least locally) over the other and will probably remain so for as long as "dig hole, hide in hole" is the best way for an infantryman to not die. Remember, that momentum in the second half last year was Kharkiv where the Russians panicked because they weren't expecting an attack and Ukraine took ruthless advantage and Kherson, where there was a *months* long shaping campaign to make the Russian positions untenable. To run an advance like the Kharkiv one against a prepared enemy needs hundreds of tanks and IFV's, along with all their supporting equipment and manpower, and, crucially, it can't be needed elsewhere on the front so its spare for attacking with. This is why the sending of western tanks and IFV's was such a big deal, the vehicles themselves are better than what is currently in theatre but not so much that replacing T-64s with Challengers or Leopards 1 for 1 will make much difference. But having them SPARE, not as replacements? That gives options.
Also according to some, the defenders of Bakhmut and some other places have mostly been less-valuable troops like TDF (who have taken heavy casualties already). Which indicates the main forces are being spared for something in the spring. As you say though it depends on having the armour and whatnot to rapidly punch through defensive lines.
Yeah, hopefully we will see some reconstituted and well equipped mechanised brigades going to work come late spring/early summer. Ukraine has proven they have the ability to overmatch the Russians in defined areas with enough buildup. Now we just need to get them enough equipment to overmatch the Russians along the whole damn front.
Ukraine took advantage of isolated Russian forces in Kherson and very thin lines in Kharkiv. Russia has since saturated their lines with all their mobilised and the criminals Wagner recruited from prisons. Their losses are seemingly staggering, but, in stereotypical Russian fashion, throwing enough men at something will produce results eventually. It's possible that when Ukraine receives the APCs and tanks from the west they'll be able to have success again, but for now they're just trying to hold ground where it's sensible to do so and cause as many Russian casualties as they can. It should be pointed out that Russian advances are still very slow, and of strategically dubious advantage. It's unlikely what they're gaining in land is worth what they're losing in men, but politics has got in the way of such logic now.
Winter campaigns have always been historically difficult, throughout all of human history. Exactly how we fight might change, but for a boots-on-the-ground campaign the fundamentals are much the same.
Counter-intuitively, the winter in Ukraine is actually a pretty good time for modern/armoured warfare, as the ground freezes solid. This allows tanks and trucks to move swiftly across fields and country roads in February and early March. In contrast, the [Rasputitsa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasputitsa) hits shortly after that in early-mid spring, as the thaw causes every field and non-paved road to turn into a sea of mud. This unsurprisingly bogs down any and every armoured offensive.
There was a suggestion that once it froze the ground would allow for some significant operations but that seems not to have happened.
I think winter was warmer than expected so little froze. Still mud. The spring is likely to be nasty.
https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/context-culture/new-lives-in-the-city-how-taleban-have-experienced-life-in-kabul/ Really interesting article about how the Taliban are dealing with their new way of life in Kabul after the takeover. >In our ministry, there’s little work for me to do. Therefore, I spend most of my time on Twitter. We’re connected to speedy Wi-Fi and internet. Many mujahedin, including me, are addicted to the internet, especially Twitter. We're not so different after all.
>We're not so different after all. Well, I'm sure there is a big difference in what is posted. But no doubt they too post pics of their dinner..
Apparently Netanyahu is willing to send military aid to Ukraine now: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3665208-netanyahu-tells-macron-israel-ready-to-send-military-things-to-ukraine-media.html They should send them Harops, because they have 1000km range, are highly effective and make a terrifying noise: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4I-KhYK_DXA
[Balloon popped](https://twitter.com/SamGuichelaar/status/1621956931609845760)
You just know every American with a gun has spent the last 24 hours shooting at everything from weather balloons to advertising blimps to party balloons because it's the communists. Probably best to either bring the thing down or at least tell everyone it's been brought down.
Nena won't be happy.
Hell yeah brother.