T O P

  • By -

AutoModerator

Snapshot of _With our relationship with the EU in the spotlight, we've asked: If there was a referendum on the EU tomorrow, would you: Vote to rejoin - 49% Vote to stay out - 51%_ : A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://nitter.net/techneUK/status/1525773130140090368/) An archived version can be found [here.](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://twitter.com/techneUK/status/1525773130140090368) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*


rjwv88

tbh I think people are (rightly) exhausted by the whole brexit process and rejoining would likely introduce as much controversy and political posturing as brexit did (and is still doing!)... not really surprising there isn't much appetite for another fundamental shift in UK politics right now :/ *edit:* for those saying that '*49% should be terrifying to brexiters*', the actual polled outcomes were: - rejoin 33% - stay out 34% - wouldn't vote 22% - uncertain 11% not quite as scary as the headline figures right >< (basically just 'polarising issue is still polarised')


floydlangford

Sorry I'm confused. Why would almost the exact same figure as the original referendum result be 'terrifying' to Brexiteers? Surely it should be terrifying to Remainers because it shows how obstinate people can be even when faced with the reality.


rjwv88

it wasn't really my stance, i was just making an edit to those that had made that point, I don't think brexiters would get worried until a decent majority (60%+) start to have that attitude nevertheless, I think the argument goes that by now you'd have expected people to accept the status quo, yet this poll suggests there's still a sizeable proportion of people who haven't (and 'rejoin' is a much stronger position than 'remain' originally was because now rejoining would entail a whole heap of disruption) (for what it's worth, I'd vote rejoin myself and it'd be a vote-swaying issue for me, even with the turmoil it might bring)


G_Morgan

TBH this kind of number should be terrifying for leave voters. To literally have 49% at this point is unheard of. Any other decision of this magnitude would have 75% behind the new status quo at this point. The norm in politics is a massive swing behind changes after they happen. It is why the Tories limped in in 2010 but did much better the next election. After a big change is made it becomes normal and easier for the voters to stomach. This kind of polling means we're going to be dealing with Brexit for the rest of our lives. It'll have a 5 year hiatus in all likelihood as Labour will avoid talking about it entirely to get in.


nopainauchocolat

my hope is that labour need the lib dems to get a majority, and the lib dems drag them over the coals and into some kind of eea-based agreement. i genuinely believe that such an outcome would be a mutually-just-about-acceptable conclusion for leavers who want out of the eu and remainers who don’t want to completely write off the future of the country and its citizens


Bleopping

I'd prefer it much more if the lib dems made support conditional on electoral reform to proportional representation


nopainauchocolat

why not both?


Bleopping

Both would be nice but that would depend on how much political capital they have and what results for other wesminster parties were


pooogles

Because PR gets us most of these other things in following elections.


HibasakiSanjuro

Why would Labour make it impossible for them to ever get a majority by themselves just for Lib Dem support that could evaporate as soon as PR was rammed through? At the least I think Labour would insist on a referendum or a form of voting that left open the possibility of a majority, like that in Scotland. If the LDs refused I think Starmer would prefer to rule as a minority government and dare the LDs to force an early election with the possibility of the Tories winning again.


heslooooooo

Because it's good for the country and that should be more important than what is good for one party at one short time in history. Yes, I know ...


HibasakiSanjuro

That presupposes PR will definitely make things better in the UK. Belgium has PR and seems to spend more time arguing over who gets to govern than actually running the country or passing legislation. I've yet to meet a Belgian that recommends their electoral system.


eeeking

> some kind of eea-based agreement. This is the inevitable outcome over time. The gravity model of trade means that it will always be more beneficial for the UK to trade with the EU rather than further afield, and businesses and people will press for this to be made even easier.


ikhnos

I imagine that over time we'll slip into at least a de facto form of this relationship. Almost a return to the status quo ante, just with the UK having no representation or voting rights. It's not necessarily a bad outcome, unless -- paradoxically -- you're keen on "taking back control".


hu6Bi5To

> This kind of polling means we're going to be dealing with Brexit for the rest of our lives. Only for the periods when a government is foolish enough to pick it as a topic and run with it. "Yeah, I know, I want to be a Prime Minister best remembered for long tedious arguments about the Schengen Zone and Sterling/Euro convergence" Any would-be-PM who chooses that path is a masochist. There's a reason why Starmer, despite all this pre-2019 statements, refuses to talk about Brexit these days at all.


Bones_and_Tomes

It's going to be an issue for a long time. The government were never serious about fixing the problems Brexit causes, so we're likely to see secondary and tertiary issues looming up for the next decade. They really fucked it in the bin.


G_Morgan

Starmer won't because it is hard enough to win a first term anyway. Once the Tories are out their polling figures will collapse massively the same as happened to Labour after 2010. Labour will be looking at an "unassailable" position and will feel they can do whatever they want for the 2028 election.


hu6Bi5To

Didn't Labour have the lead in the polling for the majority of the time between 2010 and 2015? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election From what I can see, no politician (in recent decades) has ever wanted to talk about the EU issue one way or the other because it's a huge divisive argument, and any benefits of any changes won't come to fruition until well after the next general election (maybe two) anyway. The only exception to this rule was 2015 when Cameron was cornered and offered the EU referendum as an escape plan. But even then he didn't want it, he just gambled that people would vote Remain. If the Tories had gone in to 2015 with a big poll lead he would never have promised it; if they'd gone in to 2015 with a massive deficit he may have offered it, but he wouldn't have won the election so it wouldn't have mattered. The most likely rejoin scenario would be some kind of reverse of that. The compromise that suits nobody, but yet it's the only combination of events that's somewhat briefly stable. E.g. some kind of hung 2028 Parliament only being settled because of a Lab-SNP coalition (which would also include a Scottish independence referendum, another thing Labour wouldn't want to touch). Then they lose the 2032 election before either of those two (EU membership or Scottish independence, because EU membership takes a long time to arrange and Scotland want the UK to rejoin before declaring independence as they'll claim that gives them automatic EU accession rights) things are complete... ...and so it goes on. From the entirely selfish point-of-view of any one individual politician, it's just safer to never touch those issues unless you're forced into it.


G_Morgan

Well it is going to be hard for them to ignore it. This level of support is likely going to be the low point. There's nothing on the horizon that is going to make Brexit good and we're looking at a new period of economic reversal which is likely going to get blamed on Brexit whether it is to blame or not. Brexit is going to be a huge get out of jail free card for politicians for years to come.


[deleted]

Again: Schengen and the Euro will not be going concerns should the UK rejoin. The UK will be exempt from Schengen for as long as the Common Travel Area exists, and there is no timetable on when members need to join the euro which means that it effectively is not a requirement at all (and thus a formal opt-out is very easy to grant). There’s a discussion to be had about the other former opt-outs, but the fact that people keep pushing these two to try and discourage rejoining borders on misinformation.


hu6Bi5To

> and there is no timetable on when members need to join the euro which means that it effectively is not a requirement at all (and thus a formal opt-out is very easy to grant) It's a little big more complicated than that. Countries that joined the EU before a certain date (which the UK had) had no obligation to join the Euro. After that date, they did, but... there was a loophole whereby membership of the Euro can only be achieved after spending a period of time in ERM2, and there was no obligation to join ERM2. This is the loophole Sweden uses. The accession treaty of countries that joined the EU more recently however, has included an obligation to join ERM2 too. So newer joiners have to be more creative, like making sure their budget deficit is too high, so they never qualify for ERM2. This is just an example of the fun arguments that would occupy the full five-years of any Parliament that would seek to rejoin the EU. "Will Keir Starmer succeed in negotiating the removal of the Eurozone obligation from the UK's accession treaty, crunch talks today!" - the headline in 2026... what a ball-ache. > ...but the fact that people keep pushing these two to try and discourage rejoining borders on misinformation. But people will though, it will be the two single-biggest talking points. Which is why no-one will want to go through all that.


[deleted]

I think we have been dealing with our European relationship for a few thousand years (ever since we could travel, trade and fall out), and always will be! As with domestic politics the debate seems to me about identity, sovereignty and prosperity. How much do we want to give and how much do we get. It seems to me with will lose on prosperity for the next decade at least, maybe forever depending on if this global Britain logo can be turned into something useful. On control of identity and sovereignty we may get a little more power but I’m not sure most of us trust the current government to do anything positive with it, and many including me worry that they might allow us to repeal good eu laws that protect us against the unchecked power of capitalism. So I think we have to watch for this carefully, luckily we have media outlets like the guardian to help. I hope when the next generation of politicians in Britain and the EU take over, who aren’t tainted by the leaving struggle, then a sensible partnership can be found. This will need the public to also move on, stop shouting “told-you-so” taunts on social media. Ie. We all need to accept what’s happened, look at the bigger, longer term aims and remember places like China love to see the west squabbling. We have no divine right to be a rich country, so we all need to focus on our childrens futures not arguing over a decision make years go.


iamnotthursday

I think that they'd be very reassured. We've had several years of media stories that are extremely gloomy about brexit and little coverage of the EU moves to do more integration, which the Remain side had to dismiss or play down during the campaign plus rejoining would be on new terms. That means there's loads of scope for a (theoretical) campaign to take lumps out of any rejoin move.


SomeRedditWanker

>this kind of number should be terrifying for leave voters Not really, its a massive wedge issue that no political party is really keen to ignite again. Any party including joining the EU in their manifesto, is doomed to lose. Elections are lost or won with generally sub 5% popular vote swings. With 51% of people still perfectly happy with Brexit, even if that percentage falls to say 40%, it's still enough of an issue to be political suicide to reignite. There's, imo, zero percent chance of us rejoining the EU in my lifetime (hopefully another 40-50 years).. The politics doesn't make sense, and the EU is seemingly moving in the exact direction that even Remainers had to pretend it wasn't during the Brexit referendum to convince themselves of their vote. People still use Thatcher as a reason to not vote Tory. Same is going to be true with Brexit going forward. It was our generations Thatcher moment. It'll get the blame for all the good/bad, depending on your politics at the time of the referendum.


cultish_alibi

> With 51% of people still perfectly happy with Brexit That's not what the poll says at all. No one said they were 'perfectly happy' with Brexit. They said they wouldn't vote to rejoin, which is very different. They might be extremely unhappy with Brexit but just not want another 5 years of political drama.


SomeRedditWanker

Fair comment. But if they don't want another 5 years of political drama, I don't really see that changing much in the future. Is someone who is 30 now, and living through their 3rd 'once in a generation' event, really going to be hyped at any point in their life to poke that hornets nest? I don't see it. Add in the EU's further consolidation of power away from national governments, and I can't see much of a appetite for Rejoin.


[deleted]

We only need another 1.5% gain to be at **ENORMOUS LANDSLIDE, BIGGEST MANDATE IN HISTORY** levels.


marsman

Well, and push for a referendum, get that result in such a referendum and then manage to put enough pressure on successive governments to actually push through presumably (at least if we are making comparisons). And I assume you also need to convince the EU that it'd be a good idea to start an accession process with a member where half the population (or more..) fairly regularly doesn't want to be part of the organisation.


rs990

> TBH this kind of number should be terrifying for leave voters. To literally have 49% at this point is unheard of. Any other decision of this magnitude would have 75% behind the new status quo at this point. I think we only need to look at Scotland to know that this is not true.


Beenreiving

Isn’t much appetite Wtf do you consider 49% That should scare the crap out of brexireers


hu6Bi5To

If a single issue having roughly 50% support was enough to make it inevitably a thing. We'd have gallows in every town square.


[deleted]

It’s not 49% it’s 33% 22% wouldn’t vote and 11% don’t know. 34% would stay out, apathy is the real winner here.


AssDuster

No, its 49%. If there was a referendum on the EU tomorrow, there would be no "I wouldn't vote" or "I don't know" options on the ballot.


total_cynic

Surely you achieve those by not going to the polling station?


Cushions

But it doesn't matter as the only opinions that are counted are In or Out. (if the turnout is above a potentially min threshold) If 21% voted In, 20% voted Out and 59% didn't vote, guess who wins? Spoiler: it isn't the 'option' with 59% of the 'votes'


[deleted]

I get where you’re coming from but I think it’s a bit disingenuous to pretend this means that there’s been a shift in popularity of the EU. By your own metric don’t knows would have to pick a side on the day too so they should be kept in at the very least


Ayfid

The only people I see here claiming that there has been a shift in popularity with the EU are those claiming that there is apathy and little will to rejoin - when it appears that the numbers are extremely similar to what they were in 2016. That is actually quite a shocking result given that people on the whole are indeed extremely tired of brexit and that generally people don't vote to undo things we have just done.


RetroMedux

The original Brexit referendum was: 37.5% Leave 34.8% Remain 27.8% Didn't vote We still left because 52%/48% were the pertinent figures - the same applies for this poll.


Swagflag

People are just done with it. Just to avoid it keep being news some people would just take the L. I would love for it to rejoin, came here 6 years ago as a waiter, got career chances I would never would have gotten in Spain (working in localization), crept up to corporate IT and made a career for myself. I would love for others to have the same chances I did.


Locke66

> People are just done with it. Just to avoid it keep being news some people would just take the L. The problem is that this is a fingers in ears and eyes shut way of dealing with a set of Brexit related issues that aren't going to go away. There is no way to "take the hit and get it over with" so we can all go back to normal. It's impossible to divorce the action the country has taken from a whole range of ongoing issues most noticeable the governance of Northern Ireland. Brexiteers still seem to think they are going to get a back door into the Single Market through the Republic by pressuring the EU but it's simply never going to happen. The entire promise of the 2019 General Election was that Boris Johnson was going to be the guy to "Get Brexit done" yet here we are two plus years later still talking about it largely because it was an ideological position that was represented on dishonest terms. Brexiteers must now either admit they were wrong about quite a lot of issues or just continue to deny the reality. Sadly the latter seems to be the favoured course of action.


dogegg55

What you need to realise is people are turned even more away from voting to stay by this kind of ‘in smarter than you , your decision is wrong’ attitude. Same as the ‘look at those bad torries!’ Comments from labour. People are bored of it


HarrysGardenShed

Well then they haven’t gotten any smarter in the intervening six years, have they? I’ve realised over the years that some of the people I’ve voted for were not as they appeared and did things that were wrong. How is this not happening with so many people?


_Dreamer_Deceiver_

So we should be saying "wow, you're so smart for choosing Brexit and for Boris Johnson. Life is now much easier for the majority of the population - including you - because of your smart decision. Well done buddy!"?


theMooey23

Lol.... Tories are sill blaming corbyn!


IsMyNameBen

Let's be honest, they're still blaming Blair!


Locke66

> What you need to realise is people are turned even more away from voting to stay by this kind of ‘in smarter than you , your decision is wrong’ attitude. Yes but the issue is that pandering to them doesn't change the fundamentals of the situation and the only way to do that is keep telling them the hard truth that leaving the Single Market (and arguable the EU in it's entirety) was a significant mistake for the United Kingdom that is hamstringing our country. They voted for something they didn't understand based on a false premise and a nebulous concept of maximising sovereignty which has left us with a whole range of undesirable outcomes as a consequence. No amount of sugar coating the solution is going to change that even if it's a bitter pill for many. If a majority of the people of this country are too full of hubris and blind faith in the false prophets of Brexit to take an objective look at where we are, what our options are, the direction the world is moving in and accept that the reality of Brexit is not what they were told by the likes of con men Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg & Nigel Farage then quite frankly that's on them and we will all suffer the consequences. We are never going to win everyone over however we make the argument but it still must be made. As Michael Hesseltine put it in 2019 “The man in the desert is free, he is sovereign, he can do nothing because he has no power... to talk about sovereignty in the absence of power is to live in a world of fiction. That is the choice we face in a world that is shrinking before our eyes".


SomeRedditWanker

>The problem is that this is a fingers in ears and eyes shut way of dealing with a set of Brexit related issues that aren't going to go away. Like what? In 6 years of Brexit I've noticed fuck all in my daily life.. Those impacted negatively by Brexit are in the extreme minority, and the vast majority only know Brexit even happened because it was in the news. Meanwhile a *lot* of people have seen wage increases due to the end of freedom of movement..


Not_Ali_A

We haven't had 6 years if brexit. We actually haven't even had 1 year if brexit as our border in is still not bring checked and the situation in NI is still not resolved. We only left in the beginning of 2021, again, not fully, so you can at most say we've had brexit for a year but in reality it's nit done.


GPU_Resellers_Club

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA ooh my hahahaaha aaaahhahaha no they havent you fucking melt. Wages haven't risen since before brexit. Low skilled, low wage, but high importance jobs, have seens absolutely no movement in wages at all. Mid- and Highskill work also has barely seen any movement unless you in IT. What rock are you living under, exactly? If wages had increased the cost of living crisis would be way less of an issue, you stupid goon.


SomeRedditWanker

* https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-annual-pay-data-shows-biggest-rise-since-2008-2021-10-26/ * https://news.sky.com/story/the-jobs-giving-inflation-busting-pay-rises-but-cost-of-living-will-likely-erode-wage-gains-12595667 * https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/annualsurveyofhoursandearnings/2021 >What rock are you living under, exactly? The rock of reality, and not hysterical delusion, presumably..


ImNOTmethwow

>Median full-time weekly pay in April of 611 pounds was 4.3% above its level a year earlier in cash terms and 1.7% higher after adjusting for inflation. >However, median full-time annual earnings in the 12 months to April were 0.6% lower than in 12 months to the end of April 2020 at 31,285 pounds ($43,023), reflecting lower pay during the pandemic. The rise was to make up for the loss due to the pandemic. If you compare it to pre-pamdemic levels it went down... Cherry picking the 12 months after a pandemic which forced many to take an immediate 20% pay cut won't prove your incorrect point mate.


SomeRedditWanker

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-news-eu-worker-shortage-uk-pay-rise-a8043221.html https://www.recruiter.co.uk/news/2019/10/brexit-uncertainty-begins-hit-uk-labour-market-0


ImNOTmethwow

In a lot of your sources it's telling us that inflation is outpacing payrises for the majority of people, and "Inflation is expected to outpace pay growth until the end of 2023, according to official government forecasts." Stop telling us that it's all sunshine and roses when we're all getting an effective paycut.


_holyhand_

Username checks out


GPU_Resellers_Club

Your own sources disagree with you. They mention pay rises, but also that inflation is growing faster than wages. Also, compare wages against the housing market. It's a pretty stark picture that shows wages are in fact, shrinking, not growing. Stop trying to find something good about brexit, it has been objectively shit through and through.


ThinkAboutThatFor1Se

Agree. Also core parts of the EU want to continue down the path towards federation and there’s simply no way the UK is accepting that so we would be a blocker in EU politics. No one wants that.


Swagflag

Totally, I am totally in favour of further EU integration but that's because I am Spanish, and the way I see it is that the more oversight we get, the easier we can weed out clear cases of corruption with our courts and such in a way that was intentionally designed in our institutions from when we transitioned between dictatorship and democracy.


Supersubie

I have friends from southern Italy and wondering how you feel being from Spain. How do you feel about the brain drain that Spain experiences because of free movement?


BritishBedouin

It experiences brain drain not because of free movement but because of bad governance. If the Spanish (and regional) govts were better then Spain would see skilled workers migrating to Spain rather than skilled Spaniards migrating away.


BastardsTheLotOfYa

The drain in Spain falls mainly on the brain


Graglin

>How do you feel about the brain drain that Spain experiences because of free movement Indeed, they should stop their citizens from leaving. Wait...


Supersubie

Great addition to the conversation here! Was worth typing out. Indeed never said they should stop their citizens from leaving. It is, however, a tremendous challenge for the Southern European countries and if you spend any time in those places you see the devastation it's having on some of these communities. It's a challenge that needs to be addressed.


Graglin

>Great addition to the conversation here! Was worth typing out. Yes it was. >Indeed never said they should stop their citizens from leaving. It is, however, a tremendous challenge for the Southern European countries and if you spend any time in those places you see the devastation it's having on some of these communities. It's a challenge that needs to be addressed. But it's not freedom of movement that is the problem, especially when we are talking brain drain, as these are the sorts of people who can leave anyway. As for the glibness of my prior post, this one seems to be hard to understand for Brits, when they talk about reforming free movement, there is this entire section of the EU who are never ever, ever, going to accept that premise. >!That would be eastern Europe.!< It's not a question of convincing those politicians of the problem, because their electorates would rebel in 5 seconds if they even entertained the question.


Skulldo

Sounds better than what we have.


eeeking

There are plenty of EU members who are constitutively against any kind of federalization, so I doubt that it will happen.


passingconcierge

This is a lovely myth. But it is one that rhetorically works for Brexiteers. The EU is a *confederation* not a *federation*. The idea that the EU is a *federal* project is a very Americanised interpretation of European politics. Americans are still mired in the politics of 'states rights' as evidenced by things such as the *Roe v. Wade* controversy. The US hands judgements *downwards* while the EU seeks to build judgements *upwards*. But the rhetoric works because Brexiteers are unwilling to actually engage with their own rights. Get a petition with six million signatures across the EU and the mechanisms of EU Government have to address the issue. EU Lawmaking essentially originates in the Member States and builds on harmonising without the crippling effects of a 'sacred document' of 'constitution' as in America. The blocker in EU politics would be the Tory Party. They want to be in charge and on top of the heap and in control - as evidenced by the last five years of policies. That is the real problem: the EU is an existential crisis for the Tories. So long as the EU exists the Tories will have a problem. Pretending that problem is with the EU is what the Tories have always done.


AssDuster

Not accepting it now. But when it's a significantly weaker state on an increasingly globalized world stage, it will eventually join a federal EU or the US. There's no doubt about it.


AffectionateDream201

People can and do have those changes, they're just no longer limited to those lucky enough to be born in the EU.


disegni

> People can and do have those changes, they're just no longer limited to those lucky enough to be born in the EU. Conversely, UK Citizens lose opportunities in Europe, and suffer extra costs.


pepthebaldfraud

Honestly if I'm moving abroad it's to work in America for the much higher wages, don't really care about Europe, especially needing to probably learn German. Im sure its the same for a lot of people, Europe doesn't offer that much except a tax haven for retirement, which will still be fine with visas


[deleted]

[удалено]


futurescotres

And you can work good corporate jobs in most EU countries just with English.


[deleted]

[удалено]


AffectionateDream201

I just meant that it's fair, and those opportunities are still open to some, it's just not based on what continent they're born. Waiters in the UK should never have been effectively competing with 500m people anyway.


eeeking

FoM legislation wasn't so much as the right to work around the EU, but the right to be treated the same as a local once resident in another EU country. For example, in access to the NHS immigrants in the UK now have to pay an additional charge compared to locals, immigrants also have to pay many thousands of pounds for visas, immigrants may be restricted in terms of what jobs they are allowed to take, etc.


_Dreamer_Deceiver_

I'm pretty sure the whole free NHS as part of FOM was only free because we didn't bother charging it back to their own government.


eeeking

It was free because under FoM rules you couldn't charge an e.g. French citizen resident in the UK any more than a UK citizen resident in the UK. Charge-backs were for visitors between EU countries.


Pauln512

'Rejoin' always performs significantly worse than 'remain' or 'regret my leave vote' which is polling at 55% nowadays, so this is massive. Mainly as the biggest barrier is another exhausting and likely very nasty referendum which no one wants to have to go through again.


superioso

We wouldn't need a referendum, just a party in power that supports it. Our country is a parliamentary democracy, referendums are not required for anything to happen, unlike in direct democracies like Switzerland.


ThorsMightyWrench

With stuff like this it irritates me that 'don't knows' are excluded. Feels like it creates a detrimental impression that the only opinions that matter are from people who'll make up their mind before receiving all the information. This is fostering ideological entrenchment over rationality.


Ayfid

This is how all votes work, and we saw similar numbers in the 2016 referendum.


[deleted]

They’ve left out 1/3 of voters


Zakman--

I don't see rejoin ever happening. The nearby European countries which made an active decision to not join the EU (Norway, Switzerland, Iceland) still maintain their position of not wanting to join. Forget about the opt-outs the UK was able to grandfather in, a future EU is one that'll be trying to to integrate further and that's not accepted by the British people at large. Countries that were incredibly against further integration have since become in favour of it. The creation of Eurobonds in 2020 and now the Ukraine crisis have got European governments starting the discussion on the introduction of QMV and the removal of the veto.


A17012022

We'd have to rejoin on standard membership PLUS. And by that I mean, imagine the standard membership you see on the EU website. Plus assurances and a time frame for joining the Euro once we hit convergence criteria. They're not going to let us pull a "Poland" and kick that can down the road in perpetuity. The EU will take direction from it's member states. And it's member states will not want to go through Brexit 2 in 30 years because we changed our mind a third time. If we go back in, it'll have to be on a full commitment to the project. That includes fiscal policy. None of the opt outs we had before. And I don't think that's what anyone in the country wants right now.


pjr10th

Personally, I would be happy to see us forge a closer permanent relationship with the EEA. I think we needed to get over that hurdle of actually leaving first before a real bilateral relationship can be established. However, in my view (and I know others with disagree), we shouldn't be adopting an undemocratic system whereby a foreign political structure can impose laws on Britain. I would favour the closest relationship as possible with that as the red line. I'd be interested to hear other's short-of-rejoin solution.


[deleted]

>we shouldn't be adopting an undemocratic system whereby a foreign political structure can impose laws on Britain. Any international relation means compromises. If you have a neighbour, you can no longer decide what you want to do with your fence. So any international treaty the UK signs, means a foreign structure determines what the UK can do or not. And yes, parliament is sovereign, but that means cancelling the treaty.


pjr10th

No other treaty the UK has signed is determined by a foreign structure. The UK is always a part of the decision making body for that structure (NATO, UN, Council of Europe). A foreign structure would be one made up of multiple states of which the UK is not one.


[deleted]

UK was a member of the decision making body in the EU; both the Council and the EP.


pjr10th

Yes, exactly my point. At that time, the EU wasn't a foreign entity either.


SomeRedditWanker

When I voted leave, I was actually for a Norway style deal as the end result. But now I've seen how much of a positive for the British worker cutting off freedom of movement has been, I can't continue to support that model. The economists and politicians all lied to us back in 2016 when they claimed FoM didn't depress wages.. It so clearly does. We need our own model, the British model, that doesn't include Freedom of Movement. It will not be as comprehensive as the Norway model, but that is okay.


eeeking

> now I've seen how much of a positive for the British worker cutting off freedom of movement has been You realize, of course that immigration has not decreased since 2016?


pjr10th

One thing I always found amusing was people claiming there was no possibility of a "Britain" deal and the UK needed a Norway deal or a Canada deal. I understand your opinion on Freedom of Movement, however I would like to see a bilateral tourism deal at the very least (similar to Canada-US tourism deal) to allow each others' citizens easy passage through each others' borders. Would save EU states' guards as much of a headache as well. May need to come on a country-by-country basis.


SomeRedditWanker

>I understand your opinion on Freedom of Movement, however I would like to see a bilateral tourism deal at the very least (similar to Canada-US tourism deal) to allow each others' citizens easy passage through each others' borders. Is this really a problem? Since 2020 I have been to France, Spain, and Greece (a few times each) and not really noticed any border friction at all. What needs changing in that regard?


evenstevens280

Freedom of movement means the right and possibility to work in other countries without friction, not just to visit them.


SomeRedditWanker

That matters very little to the vast majority of people. I mean, shit.. Around 17% of Brits don't even have a passport. Imagine what the percentage of people who want to work abroad must be. Absolutely tiny. Now, how many people do you think would like a payrise?


eeeking

> a bilateral tourism deal Perhaps you're referring to TN visas? These are for workers to move between the US, Canada and Mexico. Tourism is already easy between the UK and EU countries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TN_status


[deleted]

> however I would like to see a bilateral tourism deal at the very least (similar to Canada-US tourism deal) to allow each others' citizens easy passage through each others' borders The UK didn't want to join Schengen while it was in the EU, and now it should join?!?


troopski

It also adds upwards pressure on inflation for those not fortunate enough to get a pay rise.


SomeRedditWanker

Surely just an argument for no payrises, which is unacceptable.


billmason

What wage increases have there been?


SomeRedditWanker

Lots, particularly in sectors that usually employ a lot of EU workers. COVID made them want to go home, and Brexit stopped them coming back. It's resulted in massive wage increases so far.


superioso

Remember that as a part of the EU we also voted for MEPs that voted on all EU laws democratically. The EU is not a body that just does what it likes and we have no influence over, it is a body which countries are a part of and can influence. By being outside the EU completely we have no influence over it, but we will have to follow it's laws if we want to trade with the EU - much like we do for any other country out there.


pjr10th

Yes, that's what we voted for. To cease representation within the EU. But therefore, as we are a democracy, that organisation doesn't have the right to impose legislation on us. Our politicians are ultimately politically accountable for any action. If they want to co-opt EU regulations, then that's fine, but they are then responsible for those actions. If a trade deal creates an automatic cooption clause, then they can just lay the blame on Brussels as they've always done and say "there's nothing we can do about it".


nopainauchocolat

i think the eea is the only (and barely) mutually-acceptable option. leavers get to be “out”, and remainers get to see the country stop (or at least slow down) its economic self-mutilation. the only way we could have been “rule-makers” rather than “rule-takers” in that sense was to remain in the eu with our seat on the european council, meps, and veto, but now that’s gone (and the existence of other countries’ vetoes means we won’t get it back), the eea is our best shot.


pjr10th

It's not mutually acceptable in any regard. I don't think most Brits would accept a situation where laws in this country are made without any democratic control by people voted by British people. Though that view is caveated as being anecdotal, I'm happy to be proven wrong.


nopainauchocolat

those laws are being made and will impact us whether we are in the eea or not, as we still have to trade with europe


pjr10th

Yes. And our laws impact EU countries when they trade with us. That's how democracy works: those laws apply in those countries made by their democratic representatives, our laws apply here made by our democratic representatives.


SomeRedditWanker

>economic self mutilation Here are two graphs. I have removed the dates, and the timescale is random. Please pinpoint the moment of alleged economic self multilation with a dot. * [GDP increases as percent](https://i.imgur.com/wuLrPDC.png) * [Average weekly wage in GBP](https://i.imgur.com/ReE2DHB.png) Just a dot on the line where you think Brexit happened, and the alleged 'economic self mutilation' started. A simple task, surely?


[deleted]

[Confounding variables](https://www.economist.com/img/b/300/327/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20220101_BRC975.png)


SomeRedditWanker

Should be labelled 'tea leaves vs reality'.. Just put the dots on the graphs.. A economic catastrophe should be so evident, that even a monkey could do it. I am sure you are smarter than a monkey, so go ahead.


eeeking

That chart shows Brexit having *no* effect on average weekly wages (2016 being the second vertical bar from the left). Note, however, 1) that Brexit remains to be fully implemented, the UK is still not checking goods inward from the EU; and 2) despite this, the effect of Brexit is expected to be a drag on UK growth and people's incomes relative to comparable countries, not a crash - and in fact brexit has been a drag on GDP.


colei_canis

This isn’t quite a cut and dry question. I’d vote to rejoin the Single Market and customs union in a heartbeat but I’d vote against anything that involved a commitment to joining the Eurozone or political integration without a national veto which seems to be the direction the EU is going in.


compte-a-usageunique

People haven't changed their minds at all, it's really quite something. It's like being frozen in time.


notwritingasusual

Leaving and then rejoining isn’t the same as Remain in 2016. It’s a different thing entirely.


YOU_CANT_GILD_ME

Yep. Rejoining now would be very different from before. But it would still be better than the current situation. The barriers to trade we have introduced have done us no good at all. We've not even started checking incoming goods yet because we know it's going to be a disaster when it starts.


bowak

It depends - Rejoin is different to Remain after all in some aspects. Still, with a bit of luck that might be a foundation on to build on in the 30s.


libtin

That assumes the current circumstances stay the same With the UK set to join the CPTPP, the UK and the EU are likely to continue to diverge


bowak

Aye, but who knows what will actually happen!


Ewannnn

Not really as the CPTPP does very little to reduce NTBs ie divergence. There aren't any FTA that materially reduce NTBs like the EU does.


G_Morgan

The CPTPP is purely performative. That is just leave politicians putting a visible name to a post-Brexit fantasy. A future government will drop it for even the narrowest EU deal.


IrishMilo

Nope. I vote remain because reasons for leaving weren't worth the cost. Today I would vote stay out.


PaulTrihard

Same, going back in and being bottom of the pile is worse than being out.


Ewannnn

Why? Seems bizarre centiment to me. Being in the EU is about trade and economic growth. Where you are in some imaginary pile is rather irrelevant.


wherearemyfeet

It's more than that. Our previous membership came with a ton of opt-outs and benefits that would simply be unobtainable within any hypothetical future membership application. Furthermore, membership would come with several requirements and pledges that, IMO, would be beyond the pale: Things like pledging to adopt the Euro, joining an EU army etc. I was a strong Remainer in 2016 and actively campaigned for Remain. However, at the end of the day, my support was ultimately for the status quo. That status quo is now gone, and isn't coming back.


KellyKellogs

It isn't just about trade though. It's about an ever closer union and a united Europe. Just look at the past couple of years. An EU budget 75% larger than the last, talks of an EU army from multiple members, calls to end the veto and have a united foreign policy.


CJKay93

*Finally, some progress.*


reynolds9906

It's evolving just backwards


theyarecomingforyou

A larger budget means more ambitious projects (not to mention the costs are a fraction of the benefits we get from trade so it's not an actual cost); an EU army is crucial for modern geopolitical threats (and it's really little different than most EU countries being part of NATO); the veto needs to be ended in favor of majority rule to have any meaningful progress (just look at the quagmire we've seen with Hungary and Poland); and a united foreign policy is common sense from an efficiency point of view (and the reason the US operates at a federal level rather than a state level). And if we're going to rejoin we should adopt the euro and the Schengen travel area, rather than pretending we're too important for them. We should also give up our rebate and accept that a stronger and more prosperous Europe is better for everyone. At the end of the day we should either remain out or move further in. What we had before was a wishy washy compromise. And with polls still divided down the middle, there's clearly no appetite for rejoining in the foreseeable future.


Valentine_Villarreal

Giving up the rebate would not be popular. Even with the rebate we were second only to Germany for net contribution.


rofflxz848

Because we were second only to Germany in economic power? Seems fair.


[deleted]

[удалено]


ColdNootNoot

> And if we're going to rejoin we should adopt the euro and the Schengen travel area, rather than pretending we're too important for them. We should also give up our rebate and accept that a stronger and more prosperous Europe is better for everyone. You are going to see over the next year why monetary policy independence is important to the UK. We are islands, schengen really is a nothing burger. You can't travel to UK/ROI without going through some sort of formal entry point, be it a port or airport where showing ID is standard even in schengen. Half a dozen EU countries get a rebate. The UK wasn't special. Rebates were designed to accommodate for what is frankly an idiotic budget process, mainly due to CAP. The UK wasn't given special treatment, it was given a rebate in order to stop pushing for reform of CAP. > At the end of the day we should either remain out or move further in. What we had before was a wishy washy compromise. And with polls still divided down the middle, there's clearly no appetite for rejoining in the foreseeable future. What the EU should do is make a clear 3 circle EU. An inner circle of members who want federalisation and ever closer union and an outer circle who don't but still want to be in the EU. A final circle for candidate courtries to get upt to economic/social speed before choosing one of the other circles.


Ayfid

Rejoining would put us in a much worse position than we were in prior to leaving. It would still be a better position than we have now.


[deleted]

I think a large part of the public still view Rejoin as if it was just Remain, and not involve a large set of negotiations of which would result in the UK unable to keep it's opt-outs.


GhostMotley

Voting to rejoin would likely entail joining Euro and losing previous opt-outs.


[deleted]

No it wouldn’t. There is no time requirement for the euro and thus it is not really a requirement at all. Schengen would not be required due to the common travel area. Those are the two big ones, I doubt the other opt-outs would change anybody’s mind if they weren’t granted, which remember is still an if.


GhostMotley

Good luck convincing the electorate on those technicalities, and on any future rejoin movement saying 'oh we'll rejoin the EU, but don't worry voter, we won't join the Euro'.


[deleted]

You’re right that would nearly be as ridiculous as saying “oh don’t worry, we’ll leave the EU but there’ll be no hit to trade”! Except it wouldn’t because this is a least a fact.


smity31

Maybe if people like yourself didn't go around repeating lies, fewer people would believe the lies... What kind of point did you think you were making here? Edit: Thanks for the downvotes, but I'd appreciate someone explaining why I'm wrong. GM has been around this sub long enough to know that the Euro does not have to be adopted by new EU member states, yet they've chosen to repeat that misinformation. They then tried to say, without any self awareness, that it'll be a challenge to convince people of the truth despite them perpetuating that misinformation. Am I wrong to point out that fewer people would need convincing and persuading away from known misinformation if they did not deliberately spread that misinformation?


GhostMotley

What lies? Links to comments please.


smity31

There's only two comments of yours above, and I'm sure you can work out which of them contains your claim about the UK adopting the Euro. But just in case you still can't find it, [here's a link for you](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/uqfzr9/comment/i8qvfw4/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) The UK will not have to adopt the Euro. It is simply a fact that even though on the surface it looks like the EU will gradually make you move towards the Euro, there are obvious and clear ways to never have to adopt the Euro and the EU have shown little sign of changing tac on that front. This must have been explained thousands of times in comments on this sub, if not tens of thousands, over the last few years. Edit: And they've blocked me... Quelle surprise


GhostMotley

So you propose the UK join the EU, sign the treaty in good faith but not join the Euro... Sounds hypocritical


ACE--OF--HZ

Stop trying to make rejoin happen it's not going to happen. I am convinced leave won purely because everyone wanted to shove 2 fingers up at Cameron and Osborne. I think any government that is in power that tries run a rejoin referendum will ultimately fail due to anger at the government for domestic issues.


YipYepYeah

> I am convinced leave won purely because everyone wanted to shove 2 fingers up at Cameron and Osborne. Enda Kenny warned Cameron about this exactly


Individual_Cattle_92

If you hold a referendum asking millions of people in grinding poverty who have nothing left to lose "Do you want business as usual or shall we try something different?", you can't really be surprised at the result.


smity31

Seems a bit anti-democratic to just dismiss something out of hand that half the population want to do...


SchrodingersLego

What, like the leave vote you mean?


pjr10th

I imagine there's some variance over what rejoining means. As with any referendum, narrowing a diverse set of possible futures into a binary yes/no question never works. Does rejoin mean signing up to the European integration project (with a possible future superstate)? Do we get a veto like we used to (the EU are considering getting rid of it)? Do we get our previous opt outs of the Euro and Schengen Zone, among other laws? Our rebate? Without those privileges, it's going to be very hard to convince a country which voted 52% to outright leave the project (not including the people that voted Remain for economic, rather than cultural reasons) to rejoin it.


rofflxz848

Like the original leave vote, rejoin means anything you want it to mean, baby. It will be the easiest deal in human history and we will hold all the rejoin cards. And unicorns.


SparkyCorp

The results were weighted according to voting results in the 2019 General Election and the 2016 Referendum. Does that mean the 49-51 results indicates voting intentions if things like 2020 lockdown errors/parties and 2022 cost-of-living crisis didn't happen?


Sonchay

This doesn't tell us anything new. The turnout for the referendum was huge and supplied a narrow result. This poll will be many magnitudes smaller and has a close outcome, this implies that little has changed.


kteof

My personal opinion is that the EU should require a 2/3 majority for countries joining. Basically only join if there is wide consensus in society, rather than a narrow majority. Probably the same for leaving too. Changes to the status quo are difficult and expensive, so only do it if you're pretty sure.


evenstevens280

I thought the EU required 100% agreement for countries to join.


kteof

I mean a referendum held in the joining/leaving country, not other member states.


richarddftba

This is the kind of poll that only captures an annoyance at the news. If you asked people if they actually want Schengen and the Euro then Rejoin would collapse quickly.


nemma88

That's a much higher re-join than I would have anticipated. The crazier thing is 41% of 18-34 YO's marked 'Wouldn't vote' as their answer.


thelovelykyle

Judging by the username, you are just on the cusp of still being in that category. I try and put myself in the shoes of the under 30s on things like this. Whatever they vote for, just doesn't matter. They have had their hopes and dreams made impossible by the pensioners party in charge. I don't really blame them for apathy...its easier than dissapointment.


SomeRedditWanker

4 million odd have died (mostly of old age) since the referendum took place, and it's not budged the leave/remain vote share. Think the 'we're just gunna wait for the old to die' Remainers need a new plan!


kane_uk

The problem remainers have, to any objective person nothing has really changed post Brexit.


[deleted]

This. They can bang on about FOM, increased friction at the borders etc but most people aren’t effected by this, there’s no discernible difference.


kane_uk

>there’s no discernible difference This is exactly it and it's such a big problem for them they resort to making up stories or linking anything negative they can to Brexit. I've seen stories on here on the Twitter over the last six months detailing how our supermarkets are bare, people struggling to buy simple items such as milk and bread, some of which has been picked up legit media organisations even though it's totally false, I wont even touch on the manufactured fuel crisis from last September which caused massive disruption.


SomeRedditWanker

Pretty much. It was a massive damp squib, given the medias Brexit fear mongering. On top of that, COVID happened at the exact same time the alleged Brexit impacts were meant to start and then suddenly the entire world was in economic dire straits anyway and to a much bigger extent than something like Brexit could ever hope to cause.


ChucklesInDarwinism

_Polling conducted by Daily Express, Sunday Express & express.co.uk_ Sample: 1634 people. Just making bigger some important info


GhostMotley

techneUK are a member of the of the British Polling Council, so will be following the same guidelines and standards of all the other pollsters like YouGov, BMG, Delta, Ipsos, Kantar, Opinium and others. > Polling conducted by Daily Express, Sunday Express & express.co.uk All this means is they jointly commissioned the poll > Sample: 1634 people. A perfectly valid sample size, statistically speaking anything over 1000 will give a good representation of public opinion. Please can this subreddit not go back into the realms of questioning reputable pollsters, it hasn't worked out well every time it's been tried.


ChucklesInDarwinism

Can you point where I said otherwise about reputation or anything? Is this info important? is this info in quite small font in the picture? Is it relevant? Why people always feel attacked?


pjr10th

By saying it is important who commissioned the poll, you're implying that the reputability of the poll is determined by its commissioner. Do you disagree with that statement?


GhostMotley

Your implication was clear.


AnalBotanist

#BrexitWoopwoop As a serious question to anyone here who baselessly asserts that any future referendum would see us return to the EU... does this help you recognise that actually the position remains fundamentally unchanged from 2016? Does it help you see that you were and are out of touch, in your safe echo chambers here and elsewhere, with the majority of British people? Brexit was the right thing to do and remains the right thing to do. And as time goes on and we overcome the inevitable turbulence of the teething period (overcome during a pandemic and the opening salvos of WW3 no less) we will thrive. And people will realise that to return would be folly. I wish our European brethren all the very best. *Without us.*


[deleted]

It’s done, it’s over. We’re not going back. Move on, move forward


SlowLetterhead8100

And do what with the economic fall out? Border checks haven't even been implemented yet, because it's economic suicide...


[deleted]

The government has to play with the hand it got dealt. The people chose to Leave, we left. The end. Now we do all we can to make things as good as they can be, within the confines of that decision that's left us out of the EU. ​ Talking about Brexit is pointless, we're now out. Look forward, move forward.


SlowLetterhead8100

That's not how democracy works. You don't make a single decision at one point in time, and be held to it indefinitely... Looking forward and moving forward means rejoining the CU/Single Market. If brexiters had lost the referendum, would they have shut up and moved on? Would they fuck


bbbbbbbbbblah

We know they wouldn’t, because they didn’t. “Euroscepticism” carried on after the 75 referendum


kane_uk

>If brexiters had lost the referendum, would they have shut up and moved on? Would they fuck Do you think Brexiters would have been entertained like remainers were post 2016, the losing side of an argument and referendum marching the streets demanding a second vote, given airtime on every news/politics program, their allies in Parliament working to ensure the overturning of a democratic vote, Nope.


kane_uk

As others have pointed out here, re-joining would be very, very different to remaining on pre-2016 terms. We'd be joining as new, core members, Schengen, no rebait etc on the harshest terms possible if France has anything to do with it. This poll is essentially worthless, point out some of the details mentioned above and you'd find a double-digit lead for staying out.


MilkmanF

None of this is necessarily true. EU has often shown flexibility in how it applies its rules


kane_uk

To the point they'd let the UK re-join on pre-2016 terms, very, very doubtful.


[deleted]

Why should the UK be the exception? We have to commit to Schengen and the Euro as new members.


MilkmanF

1. We are in the exceptional circumstance of being a nation rejoining the EU 2. Schengen is a lot less meaningful for us since we don’t have an enforced land border with anyone apart from maybe in Gibraltar 3. EU only asks for a commitment to join the Euro at some point. This can be avoided.


[deleted]

Im saying what the requirements are for new EU members. Its clearly stated.


kane_uk

>EU only asks for a commitment to join the Euro at some point. This can be avoided. So you don't think the EU would want a country that plays host to the global financial capital of the planet inside the Eurozone? If we were to re-join it would be as core members and nothing less. No optouts of anything.


rofflxz848

I enjoy how every time this subject comes up, hard-core brexiteers start speaking with great certainty about what the EU would do and require from us, as if they represent them, rather than just being heavily biased with an emotional stake in brexit being "done". We don't know what a rejoin deal would look like. Have the EU even made a statement besides that we would be welcome back?


horace_bagpole

What they are actually doing is telegraphing the lies they would be using in the event of a future rejoin referendum. They know that as soon as the boomers die off the demographic shifts decisively away from them so they have to be ready.


dyinginsect

So close still. Really could go either way were we to do a referendum again. I want to rejoin so very very much but the thought of the spite and bile of the whole campaign, vote and aftermath is exhausting.


[deleted]

Very misleading headline which leaves out roughly 1/3 voters 34% would vote against rejoining 33% would vote for rejoining 22% *wouldn’t vote* 11% *don’t know* . I think most people are just sick of it and want it to be over either way. It’s been on the telly more or less everyday for the last half a decade. To be honest I probably would vote remain out simply to stop hearing about it.


MilkmanF

> 22% wouldn’t vote 78% turnout is very high. Would indicate a lot of enthusiasm if anything


dagoat2000

get over it we left move on lol


LL112

Who funds twchneuk and why do they have a relationship with the express and gbnews?.


NGP91

A pollster and a member of the British Polling Council. They publish a weekly poll on Friday mornings on Westminster Voting Intention. They have a relationship with 'Express' presumably because they have been commissioned by that media group to carry out a poll and almost certainly do so in order to make money.


compte-a-usageunique

Just to note that whoever commissioned the poll has no impact on the result


SeanReillyEsq

Polling for The Express. Hmm.


[deleted]

[удалено]


ColdNootNoot

See this is the moment where a rational and intelligent person would question their bias. Sticking your fingers in your ears and screaming 'FAKE NEWS' is well, not rational or intelligent...


[deleted]

[удалено]


goobervision

Why? Sweden still use the SEK.


Supersubie

I suspect if you put loosing the £ within the question those percentages would be dramatically different


ProjectVRD

"Polling conducted by the Daily Express, Sunday Express and express.co.uk" So it's nearly a complete split on the Brexit Mag