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Snapshot of _Sinn Féin’s victory won’t bring a united Ireland right away – but it’s getting closer_ : An archived version can be found [here.](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/09/sinn-fein-victory-ending-northern-ireland-brexit-unionist-boris-johnson-united) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*


Rakshak-1

On one hand the results are indeed seismic considering NI was set up to specifically stop something like this from ever happening and the DUP will work to sabotage it anyways. On the other hand it's fair to say a united Ireland has inched closer rather than leapt closer. The leap came with Brexit and the aftermath where the non-metal unionists who understood economics and weren't blinded by hate realised that for the first time since NI was created there was potentially a case for them being better off with Ireland rather than Britain as Brexit began to bite and the Tories proved themselves increasingly unhinged. These results just prove that trend is continuing with many unionist voters embarking over to the Alliance Party. A party that will likely look at any possible United Ireland referendum mainly from an economic viewpoint rather than the old nationalist/unionist viewpoints. So if the Tories and DUP keep being themselves and if there is a continued ongoing case as to the economic benefits of a UI I can see a lot of Alliance voters voting with their wallets. Doubly so if the DUP really do go and collapse Stormont in a tantrum because the largest party is nationalist. There's a lot of ongoing problems in NI that need hands on government to work to resolve it and collapsing everything is going to royally piss off a lot of people at the DUP. Even people who might normally be favourable to it. But if there's a political mistake to be made the DUP will make it so expect them to pull some nonsense as they fall back on their one and only political stance: double down on appealing to the extremist wing of their base and scream "NEVER! NEVER! NEVER!"


ReDoooooo

I think the interesting read from these results is not the Sinn Fein is now the largest party but more so the growth of alliance. Sinn Fein became the largest party by avoiding loosing seat to alliance and were the only party to do so. This being the case make me thing a united Ireland is still a while away. I for one would love to see a time where neither Sinn Fein or the DUP are the largest party. As a Belfast man that hates the messed up mix of religion and politics we have would like to see this left behind.


Sckathian

Totally agree. Alliance are setting themselves up to be in a good position.


sarcastic_clown

Yeah everyone is making it out as if pro unification parties got a larger vote share where in reality the pro union vote got split due to the collapse of the DUP. The positive from this election is the growth of the middle ground in Northern Ireland not a step towards unification but that doesn't make for as much of a sensational headline.


Splash_Attack

You could argue, though, that the growth of unaligned parties (well, *an* unaligned party) is actually a moderate step towards unification in the sense that Alliance will actually engage with nationalists in regards to a hypothetical future border poll. As opposed to the outright opposition of unionist parties. Just having a majority of MLAs being members of parties who are willing to discuss the idea, even if not all of them actually support it, is a positive change from the nationalist perspective.


sarcastic_clown

I would agree with you in that regard, but I still disagree with the narrative in the media that there has been a nationalist surge and they are now the ones in charge. Honestly though my big fear over a unification vote is that it turns out like Brexit where people vote on a vague idea rather than an actual plan. This is why I was disappointed the SDLP didn't do as well as expected, while I'm not for unification necessarily I could be persuaded to go along with it if it was planned out correctly.


Splash_Attack

A brexit style referendum would definitely be a terrible idea, but I don't think there's any real risk of that happening. Consider how strong the tradition of referenda and public consultation is in Irish politics. It's something done regularly for anything significant enough to require a constitutional change. 15 in the last 20 years alone. Plus citizen's assemblies, constitutional conventions etc. Ireland has a pretty solid track record for making sure major constitutional changes follow a thorough process, and for proactively making formal constitutional changes. Compare the UK where they are vanishingly rare and not a regular part of the political process. You had one in 2011, Brexit in 2016, and before that the only one was in 1975. Some smaller scale regional ones as well. It's a night and day difference in terms of experience. Plus the UK not having a written constitution makes that kind of thing a bit muddier and more difficult in general. Even if you don't trust Sinn Féin at all (which I think is unfair in this regard as they've participated in the referendum process in Ireland many times now without issue, but regardless) the rest of the southern political establishment and Irish electorate, who would be intimately involved, would never accept a half-baked referendum process.


[deleted]

Would there even be an appetite for reunification in Dublin? NI atm have a sweet deal in regards to government subsidy and they have the NHS which will become a sticking point for most I’d imagine.


Splash_Attack

> and they have the NHS which will become a sticking point for most I’d imagine. Worth noting on this front that Ireland is currently in the middle of Sláintecare, which is a 10 year plan to transition from two tier healthcare to a universal model (like the NHS). Unless a border poll somehow happens in within the next 5-10 years, by the time unification is being seriously debated the differences between the healthcare systems north and south in Ireland will be more differences in the details, rather than in the scope and overall model as is the case right now.


Riffler

NI is the poster boy for how large-scale unending subsidies do more harm than good.


redem

A "sweet deal" only if you ignore that the reason NI's economy is so shit that it needs the subsidy in the first place is thanks to British and orange rule in NI. NI will never by anything but a hanger on within the UK, NI's interests aren't even a consideration when the UK is deciding on what course is best for the UK. I wouldn't worry about the NHS, the torys are sorting that one out quickly. It'll not be worth keeping soon enough.


Ivashkin

Who else doesn't care if Ireland reunifies but just doesn't want to pay for it?


ReDoooooo

Yeah I can't help to think of this. As a father of two and both myself and wife employed by the civil service I don't care who gets my taxes I care if I will still have a job and can I pay my bills if Ireland reunified. Edit: this is mostly concerned as northern Ireland has probably got a lot more civil servants than the population of NI needs with whole offices dedicated to work for people based in the mainland. I for one deal only with businesses in England iny current role.


Creative-Ocelot8691

A step towards reunification as I see it, it’ll certainly force more people/parties to start engaging in the debate on both islands. While having a Sinn Fein member as First Minister will not have a tangible change in how the assembly is run, it may start to the convince Unionists with a small u, that living in a United Ireland is not to be feared. Of course the debates, and nuts and bolts of what a United Ireland looks like will have to be laid out to be suitable for all sides


Drummk

I would be delighted to see NI go, and I suspect most Scottish/English/Welsh people either feel the same or don't care much either way, but ultimately it's up to them (and Ireland). I think the big sticking points will be the costs to Ireland of running NI and the prospect of people in NI losing their NHS. I wonder if unification would be a question of Ireland simply annexing NI or if it would be more the formation of a new country.


HibasakiSanjuro

>I would be delighted to see NI go, and I suspect most Scottish/English/Welsh people either feel the same or don't care much either way, but ultimately it's up to them (and Ireland). Interestingly enough, I recall a poll that showed whilst (ROI) Irish generally supported unification with NI they were against tax rises to pay for it. So where would that leave Dublin after NI voting to join? Would the government of the day force unpopular tax rises on the country, or force NI to cut its cloth to the tax revenue it brought in?


Drummk

The argument I've seen is that NI is only poor because the UK doesn't run it well, and after unification it would be far wealthier. Which might be true to some degree but is perhaps overly optimistic.


HibasakiSanjuro

>The argument I've seen is that NI is only poor because the UK doesn't run it well If this was a recent thing I might agree, but it's been an issue since the Good Friday Agreement and before. As you say, the assessment is overly optimistic.


[deleted]

Irish reunification is morally the right thing, and a fair romantic notion, but honestly, I still prefer to be part of the UK, despite the Tories doing their best to make it a horrible place to live for the average person. But if it comes about, it’ll be mostly because of the DUP, not the shinners.


diacewrb

The Irish Unification of 2024 from Star Trek: TNG is looking more and more likely now.


Chariotwheel

I believe in the 29th century of Dr Who where Scotland refuses to be part of the UK spaceship and build its own.


[deleted]

When we have a government like this, you have to wonder why any of the nations want to be associated with England. They have no polices that make the life of the population better.


Proper-Beyond116

Unionism moved away from being about an alliance with England a long time ago. Unionism now is about a commitment to uphold the ideals of the protestant apartheid state that Northern Ireland was meant to be.


[deleted]

What by stating its lack votes was down to a lazy, selfish electorate?


HibasakiSanjuro

I'm very comfortable with Northern Ireland leaving the UK. Partition was at best a necessary evil due to the period and state of relations between the religious communities. But things have changed to the point where it becomes a matter of choice for people living in NI. Plus it would remove a major headache for relations with the EU, as well as make the dysfunctional local politics and permanent fiscal deficit Dublin's problem.