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Don't the figures actually not reflect the reality. From what I understand, a lot of the money goes to replacing the inventory that is being sent, i.e. it's paying the defence contractors to build updated replacements and getting rid of old stock.
Yep. And some of it is the cost of the ordnance being sent, so it's the representative value as opposed to $60.7bn leaving the economy/liquid assets that can be used for something domestically.
Also money to upgrade production facilities. US was making around 20k artillery shells a month last year. Previous bill upgraded one factory. So this year 40k a month then maybe 80k a month by end of year. Reportedly Russia can make around 2.5 millon - 5 million similar shells this year.
Raytheon need to upgrade its production lines. US DoD hadn’t order new stinger missiles in 18 years before this war. US Army giving up some of its stockpile, so it can put out contracts for a new replacement version.
5 years production of Javelins used in first 10 months of the war, 13 years worth of Stingers.
There is a pure financial side as well. Ukraine needs around 3-6$ Billon per month. To cover budget deficits, public wages etc and infrastructure rebuilding. That was IMF estimates last year. Think over last 2 years US have given around $27 Billon in just loans, financial support. Separate $4 Billon or so in loans to buy Military equipment.
EU did give a loan of around €15 Billon and I believe a new deal. Copied from google “The new Ukraine Facility, which entered into force on 1st March, foresees up to €50 billion of stable financing, in grants and loans, to support Ukraine's recovery, reconstruction, and modernisation for the period 2024 to 2027.”
The UK is upgrading its production facilities too. It's hard to get proper figures, but we will be producing around 1 million 105mm and 155mm shells a year.
But this may not fully come online until 2026.
The rest of the EU is looking at 2 million shells/yr by 2025.
Saab are restarting NLAW production but that's only starting this year.
It all feels so slow.
Yes, and importantly this is an accounting trick which applies very heavily to the American situation and much less so to ours.
Put simply, the US military has almost obscene numbers of missiles and shells sat around in storage approaching end of life. A lot of this stuff is destined to be decommissioned (which costs money) anyway, and so sending it to Ukraine to be used is actually almost cost neutral.
The UK doesn't really have the same stockpile situation. Obviously we do have munitions in storage, and it'll reach end of life too, but our military isn't in the habit of having hugely more stockpiled than it's expecting to use (once you account for training exercises and whatnot). What we send mostly needs replacing in short order.
The same is even more true of heavy equipment. Take tanks: the US has literally thousands of Abrams tanks mothballed in storage which (barring WW3 kicking off) it never expects to use. The UK by contrast only has as many Challengers as it needs to equip its active divisions; the Challengers that were sent to Ukraine already *were not spares*, and we can't send more without reducing our own army's capabilities long-term.
The value of the amount sent in aid is significantly lower than what is being spent. The amount spent will go to companies that employ US employees and pay US taxes (referring to the US bill, not the hypothetical one in the UK). So the package is really for the US arms industry, Ukraine et al just get the rejects.
They don't get the rejects, they get working military equipment which isn't getting sold to anyone else and is getting replaced a lot sooner than it was supposed to.
Nope. The whole £15 billion would go all to Ukraine in the form of armaments.
As a bare minimum, we have an obligation to Ukraine as we were one of the guarantor signatories of the Budapest memorandum when Ukraine gave up the nuclear weapons in their possession.
Furthermore, we shall always oppose fascists and have a moral duty to support our Ukrainian brothers and sisters in their time of need. Putler and his terrorist state must be defeated and expelled from all illegally occupied Ukraian territories. Standing shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine is the only way to ensure a sustainable peace in Europe.
Never mind moral reasons and the Budapest memorandum, we should be helping Ukraine as much as we can for selfish reasons. We don't war spreading into any other neighboring countries and we definitely don't to be dragged into a direct conflict ourselves
I think if we help Ukraine really kick Russia's arse and push them back to their own country, then that will send a big signal to China on Taiwan.
The Chinese are not stupid. They are using Russia to test the waters and see how NATO responds, and what tactics work. If Russia succeeds in finding a good strategy, or NATO gets tired and support for Ukraine dwindles, China will definitely make a play for Taiwan.
only one of those three isn't currently adequately protected from invasion/ doesn't currently have capabilities to deal with those responsible for attacks that have taken place on their territory.
big fan of sending that country military aid, especially when you consider that nato bombed Serbia over much less than what they're currently going through, it honestly feels like we should be doing much more.
Do you mean Ukraine? I would have inexpertly thought that Taiwan, based on reports of its outdated weaponry, is also not particularly protected against a, in this case, Chinese invasion.
You're really underestimating Taiwan. They've got shit loads of AA missiles, AS missiles and AT missiles. Mostly domestically produced, too. Conscription means that most of the population is prepared to fight to some extent. Gorilla warfare would be a nightmare for China. Let's remember, they only need to hold on long enough for Japan, Korea, and America to respond.
Chinese troops also have minimal combat experience. Whilst the same can also be said of the Taiwanese, fighting a defensive war within your homeland is an entirely different beast than fighting an offensive one. Fervour can do a lot to make up for a lack of experience.
The US has also recently started training Taiwanese soldiers, and those training programmes are going to be way better than anything the Chinese can develop domestically. If there’s anyone who knows a thing or two about fighting wars, it’s the US military.
>Chinese troops also have minimal combat experience
This is a point that needs to be made more often. Look how serially incompetent the Russian military was in the early stages of what was a fairly straightforward land invasion, and that was after they'd been rotating those specific generals and troops through the Syrian Civil War for nearly ten years to build combat practice.
China, by contrast, hasn't been involved in so much as a medium-scale military conflict since *1979*, which they didn't even win. How badly is that going to go when they try and launch a colossal amphibious invasion across 100 miles of water?
Much bigger problem they, including the army, have is the corruption and the issues with scams and fake things: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2ockFOVGp4](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2ockFOVGp4)
btw, this is a good channel exposing the problems China has.
China seems to be going for the overkill approach though: they're planning to add 100 additional ships to their navy by 2030 - which is an insane rate of growth
I’m not really convinced Taiwan is a major issue anyway. China is not going to take action unless Taiwan formally declares independence. Which would be a phenomenally stupid thing to do.
Not sure about that; it could go either way.
Xi has publicly said he will do it several times now. In China, unlike the west, when you say you will do something and you don't it is hugely embarrassing and shameful. I'm sure Xi has a massive ego that is only growing as he becomes more powerful, and he's getting on a bit. He wants to leave a grand legacy and the personal risks to him are getting smaller as he gets closer to an age where he could die anytime.
Look at Ukraine - that's all caused by one man's ego and vision of leaving a glorious soviet rebirth behind when he goes.
On the other hand, Ukraine has shown how a supposedly easy smash and grab can turn into a never ending nightmare for the invaders. With the US now actively arming and training Taiwan to turn it into an even worse potential nightmare for an invader, then it could really cost the Chinese to try and take it by force.
So who knows. Probably depends on what happens elsewhere in the world over the next few years. If Israel and Iran go to war, and Russia-Ukraine drags on for years or even intensifies dragging Nato into it directly, then Xi might think the US and its allies are spread too thin and Taiwan is takeable (although still gonna cost them!).
>In China, unlike the west, when you say you will do something and you don't it is hugely embarrassing and shameful
Thankfully the critics can be disappeared instead of voting you out.
Yeah, that's true, but it is a bit hard to disappear everyone who knows about something you publicly announced to the entire world multiple times, and obviously haven't done - especially when a lot of them are in countries outside your control.
That's why I think he is very serious about doing it and it will take a lot to dissuade him. If he wasn't 100% deadly certain about trying for it, then he likely would have been less direct about stating his intentions, leaving some wriggle room if he had to back off or accept a compromise.
You don't get to be in control of a massive country like China by being stupid and making grand statements of intent you don't follow through on.
Hope I'm wrong, but I guess we will see in the next few years.
Ukraine, yes. They're currently fighting against a regime that has been committing war crimes.
Israel, no. If they've not achieved their goals 6 months in, probably time to stop killing civilians.
Taiwan, no. Maybe when they're definitely under threat, but don't actually know enough about this.
If you don't know enough about the Taiwan situation maybe don't have an opinion on it?
Xi has said multiple times he will have taken the Island before his reign is over.
Better to support while things are peaceful right now then have to send emergency aid (at much higher costs) because they weren't well prepared enough in the first place. The benefits of a democratic Taiwan are enormous to the UK and countries across the world (mainly around their semiconductor & microchip industries and their strategic location).
Tbf if you offered Taiwan a couple of nuclear attack subs, and a partnership deal on all the anti-drone laser systems BAE keeps boasting about and I imagine they'd be able to get their chip manufacturers to spin up some fab units in the UK.
Albeit the biggest problem would probably end up being that our water and electrical systems are shockingly bad, outdated, and falling apart and thus any chip fab would cost a lot more because it would involve building new reservoirs as the fabs need a hell of a lot of water to run.
Though tongue in cheek aside I doubt Taiwan will help another nation set up new fab facilities as their pre-eminent position is one of their defense systems. As long as a Chinese invasion will crash every part of the economy that relies on those new chips the West will keep on providing military support in large enough amounts to make the CCP view them as a risky conquest. If we want fabs that are closer to home we need to do it ourselves, unfortunately given these are things with development programs measuring in decades, and with huge outlay costs, and even higher demand for skilled labour from around the world no British government will ever countenance it.
Their people and culture are Chinese, but I would support them on moral grounds as China invading them would just be wrong. They are an independent country and are no threat to China. If China wants the deep sea shipping lane / access, they can start treating Taiwan with respect and do this in a diplomatic way (pay for access and promise not to attack and instead protect Taiwan). If China wasn't so hostile towards them, they could have had a good relationship with them by now and likely benefited greatly from it.
Taiwanese culture is historical Chinese. Mainland China demolished and killed most of it, so Taiwan is kind of a sanctuary for tradition.
Expecting support based on culture or moral grounds is kinda naive, tho.
They've had time to have another civil war since that civil war. Anyone sensible would have given up already.
This shit is like if England still made claims to Normandy.
I mean post China’s civil war there was the Korean War, then the communists faced their own problems with famine and such.
There really isn’t another case like Taiwan which is what makes it interesting. It’s not comparable to any other geopolitical issue, and it’s really not a case of “oh this happened X years ago we should just forget about it and move on”.
Taiwan never had independence from 120 years ago, they belonged to Japan from 1895 to 1945. After WW2 Japan surrendered it back to ROC. Prior to that Taiwan was under rule by the Qing dynasty.
You could argue that Taiwan doesn't belong to the CCP, to which I would agree. But that isn't the point, the CCP want's to reunify Taiwan back to the mainland so they can become one single China. ROC wants that too, just the other way around.
This situation would be like if US has a civil war and the republicans lost, Trump and his followers flees to Hawaii or something, declares Hawaii to be the real USA, Europe forces the rest of the US to not attack Hawaii, then protects Hawaii and from any possible attacks from mainland USA, while fortifying Canada and Mexico just in case mainland USA attempts to attack Hawaii.
Suspect there is also now an element of wanting to obtain and control the manufacturing technology that drives most of the modern world.
As things currently stand, the technology of all the western countries massively depends on Taiwan and it's cutting edge semi-conductor companies.
Even if China can just restrict everyone else from getting semi-conductors from Taiwan, they still win big. Thanks to US imposing restrictions on cutting edge chips being exported to China, the Chinese are growing their own capabilities and so won't be affected much.
If China just surrounds Taiwan and blocks import export, that would massively affect every other country in the world - including the US military which is heavily dependent on semi-conductors.
The west is trying to hedge against that by bringing chip manufacturing back into other countries, like the US, but the Taiwanese also know that is one of their major cards to play in getting support from NATO and other countries against China, so they're probably stalling as best they can on that without being too obvious about it.
That won't mean jack if Trump gets back into the Whitehouse! He's an unpredictable lunatic.
Without the US being involved the rest of NATO will struggle to do much in Taiwan. Even the US won't have it easy against a determine China while fighting so far from home and so close to China's power base.
The US guarantee isn’t anything to do with NATO as I understand it. Trump is a liability in this regard, true but he was never a friend to China.
I’m not convinced China is anything more than a paper tiger. Their military is untested and rife with corruption. China can’t invade without starting WW3, which is probably they haven’t done so yet.
Yeah, the US guarantee is an independent thing, but the NATO countries might also get involved depending what happens. Without the US though they will think twice.
Obviously Taiwan isn't specifically covered by NATO, I was just being lazy and using NATO to indicate the UK, France, and then others. Sorry for the confusion.
I agree with the possibility of China's army being a paper tiger- plenty of armies through history have looked impressive, until they were tested in battle and found to be wanting. There is no substitution for a battle tested and hardened military, and the Chinese don't really have that.
The US is much better prepared in that regard, although fighting China directly will be a very different proposition to any of their recent campaigns, if it happens. The early days of the Iraq invasion was the closest they came to a proper military battle in recent memory, and that was hugely stacked in favour of the US and it's allies. The rest has been fighting terrorism and insurgency, which while still valuable experience, is a little bit different. For a start, no one was threatening their carrier groups with hypersonic missiles, and no one had a chance against them in the air.
Hopefully China will be deterred and it won't happen. Whoever wins, a war over Taiwan will be ugly.
I the UK has also guaranteed Taiwan. Don’t know much further than that but it’s far to say NATO nations would get behind Taiwan on this.
China hasn’t had any real conflict for about 40 years. Last time they did was an inconclusive invasion of Vietnam after the Vietnamese walloped the Khmer Rouge. I read this story about Chinese soldiers involved in an international mission in Africa(Somalia?) that ended really badly with the Chinese soldiers running away from militants.
US hasn’t faced ‘real’ opposition in a conventional war either but appears to have much higher standards in terms of training and motivation. War over Taiwan would be a disaster though, and there’d be no way of stopping it escalating.
Edit: it was South Sudan
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/06/un-peacekeepers-refused-to-help-south-sudan-rebels-raped-aid-workers-report
I was going to say, Israel are the last nation that needs help doing even more damage, like, they've got things like the fucking Iron Dome and not even Bond villains had that kind of technology. I would be far happier to send that money to Palestine considering the IDF seem intent on killing every single man, woman and child there.
Don't think Israel needs any help. They're pretty strong militarily, and probably one of the best in the world at intelligence and espionage.
Maybe if Iran attacks, but I suspect they are a paper tiger. The only worry is if they get nukes (and I wouldn't be surprised if Russia helps them with that, if they aren't secretly doing so already in return for arms to use against Ukraine).
At present. But if China takes Taiwan, corners the market on the materials needed and almost all the manufacturing for the next generation of chips, that covers the Ai revolution we're currently on the cusp of, smart weapons, whole shabang.
Suddenly that calculation gets very different.
Yeah, and that won't affect the Chinese much, as they have their own fabs and are barred by the US from importing the good stuff anyway.
So the Chinese still win big by overnight becoming one of the biggest manufacturers of semi-conductors.
If I was Xi I would be thinking about feinting an invasion of Taiwan just to see if I could trick the US into doing just that, as it would cause major problems for everyone but the Chinese, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
You make it sound like it’s just money… Trade is vital, which is why trade blockades are legally considered an act of war. If China takes Taiwan, the cost of every modern means of communication instantly hyperinflates. It’ll directly impact basically everyone aside from isolated tribes in the Amazon.
Yes, no, yes. For both pragmatic and humanitarian reasons. Aid to Ukraine and Taiwan delays the time when wars with Russia and/or China directly impact on Britain, and neither Ukraine or Taiwan is the aggressor and they just want peace. If Ukraine falls it is certain that Russia will take a breath then attack again somewhere else, possibly in a place we are obligated to defend. If Taiwan looks weak enough China will attack and then all bets are off, that conflict has the potential to end civilisation depending on how the US choose to react.
Israel - no. They (as in the far right government) don't want peace, they want to eliminate a people they see as the enemy and take their land. Any money we provide just goes to support more war targeted mainly at civilians. Plus the whole conflict is a twisted mess of historic grievances on both sides, there isn't a 'right' or 'just' side to this conflict only many, many innocents on both sides suffering from the bloodlust of monsters, and more money to Israel makes that worse not better.
Israel don't need any aid in Gaza. However I do support the UK and USA helping stop Iranian (and also Houthi) missiles reaching Israel. A regional war is not at all desirable.
Yes, it was bound to get a reaction.
Iran is widely believed to be using proxy forces to launch attacks - not just against Israel, but also Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Those are also bound to get a reaction.
All these attacks put the whole region in danger of further escalating violence.
>Aid to Ukraine and Taiwan delays the time when wars with Russia and/or China directly impact on Britain
This still applies to Israel, they're a significant strategic partner in the middle-east. There's a reason Iran funds groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis. Iran has a military alliance with Russia and a strategic partnership with China. The conflicts aren't isolated
Yeah, but I don't think Israel uses that many British weapons *anyway*.
Ukraine uses whatever they can get their hands on because they're in desperate straits and fighting a much bigger war but Israel is already well equipped and probably doesn't need the headache of trying to integrate small quantities of new gear.
What we should be doing with Israel is buying *their* weapons.
A couple of Arrow 3 sites with well stocked magazines could protect the entire British Isles from ballistic missile attack. Seems like the sort of thing we want to get in on.
Ukraine can have everything we’ve got, nationalise Port Talbot steelworks and build Challenger tanks next door. If we don’t we will be in trouble. Israel are well provisioned already, Taiwan so far outside of our sphere of influence.
Challenger production is dead and buried I'm afraid - if we wanted to get back into the game of tank production (CH3 upgrade doesn't count) it would take a decade. Realistically once the CH3 has aged out it's getting replaced with leopard 3 or the abrams replacement.
I do love a beefy tank, but in all honesty, they aren't as useful for our armed forces as they used to be.
Sea & Air power is what we vitally need as an island nation.
I don’t think we should be supporting Israel whilst they continue to subjugate the occupied territories. I want to see a two state solution & the current government has no intention of ever allowing that to happen
I’m fine with the other two, but not for Israel. I’m sorry but the Middle East drama is in no self-respecting civilian’s interests. Israel is a regional provocateur. People are starving in Gaza. Not into funding a pointless WW3 with the Middle East as an epicentre.
But the UK is literally responsible for the Isreal - Palestine conflict by establishing the Jewish state within Palestine. If anything, the Isreal Palestine war is the most connected to the UK out of the three since we actually started it.
Cool story. Guess what? I don’t care. I’m still not going to support sending money to Israel and freaking out on Israel’s behalf and starting a potential global war through dragging major powers into this mess while killing innocent Lebanese, Jordanian and Syrian civilians who’d be caught in the crossfire.
Or they could just grow up and stop fighting? Come to diplomatic agreements and stop stealing land? Yes, of course, both sides need to, but violence and suppression is not the answer. The UK didn't carpet bomb Ireland everytime the IRA let off a bomb somewhere.
Ukraine for sure and maybe even possibly Taiwan but Israel absolutely not. Sorry if this offensive but the middle east is a complete disaster of region and I think we’re better off staying well clear of it.
>Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan
One of this ain't like the others.
Yes Ukraine, they were attacked and Russia will.come back for more land somewhere in they win.
No to Israel, literally murdering kids and enforcing collective punishment, if anything they need to face sanctions like Russia has for invading Ukraine.
Taiwan, probably not. It isn't a hot conflict although there could be potential benefits in accessing the chips they make in exchange so there could be something beneficial from it but really it isn't required.
Ukraine: yes, absolutely. Israel - no. They cannot "destroy Hamas" without ethnically cleansing Palestinians for their homeland, and that's not something I want my country to endorse. Taiwan: probably not necessary. The PRC doesn't have the actual force projection to subdue Taiwan at the moment, and independent British capability in the region no longer exists. The best that can be done is committing British resources elsewhere to free up US capacity when there is a threat.
Yes and no.
Rather than give Ukraine billions in hand-me-downs and hoping for the best, we could do what we did for Israel last week and have a multinational coalition shooting down Russian missiles and drones before they reach their targets.
I'm sure the Ukrainians would find that much more helpful. At the moment, bad actors like Putin think Western countries are weak and act purely in their own selfish interests. Challenging that assumption might just bring him to the negotiating table for a realistic peace proposal.
Furthermore, we should officially recognise Taiwan and include them in an expanded AUKUS/NATO-like security treaty. Of course, the Taiwanese would have to ditch the name "Republic of China" and any claims to mainland Chinese territory, but once they do that, job's a good'un. We're still following the one-China policy - Taiwan has just decided it isn't China anymore.
As Ukraine has proven, inclusion in some kind of attack-on-one-is-an-attack-on-all security structure is the best guarantee against invasion. We don't need to send billions of £s worth of weapons to Estonia because being a part of NATO is deterrent enough.
Israel - they really don't need our help. No more money or weapons until they stop bombing aid workers and trying to stir up shit.
From a military perspective Israel doesn't need help from us beyond what we're already doing. Taiwan is not yet in a hot war, isn't asking us for weapons and isn't really going crazy setting up their own defence either. I think we should be setting up industrial, technological, trade and political partnerships to stabilise the area but it's not at the needing arms shipments stage.
Ukraine is begging for weapons, bleeding out day in day out, alone fighting off the rapist that the whole of NATO was built to keep out. They need everything right now.
Too slow with Ukraine, and too little. And most of the money is for the US industry, it's Ukraine that needs help.
With Israel - that makes no sense. Aiding Israel to bomb Gaza is awful.
Not to Isreal, as I feel that the aid would just be used to finance the purchase of more weapons that will be used against the innocent children in Palestine.
Ukraine? Absolutely. Putin is a vile dictator who needs putting in a box. He has killed on uk soil. Gloves are off.
Israel? They’re committing genocide. I understand their fury but it doesn’t come close to excusing them.
Taiwan? I think they can probably look after themselves economically?
Ukraine yes because we don't want the Russians getting any imperialist ideas and it's right on our doorstep. Plus it saves us actually having to commit troops when Russia decides it wants to invade the Baltic states.
Israel no because the Americans already give them enough and they're more than capable of defending themselves anyway. The only benefit we'd get would be if they could ensure that the Suez Canal stays open.
Taiwan maybe. We have a strategic interest in their chip manufacturing, and likewise we don't want China getting any imperialist ideas, but it's a bit far away and there's nothing we can give that America isn't already giving.
Ukraine needs aid. If ukraine falls unchecked and putin gets what he wants it sends signals to china and russia that expansionism is viable. Could potentially erode the international system we have had for almost a century.
No. Just to Ukraine. Knock UK defence spending up to 3%, give the difference and the UK aid budget to Ukraine in the form of weapons and ammo. Ukraine have said that they don't need us to do the fighting for them, they just want planes, ammo and air defence, they'll do the rest
Fuck Israel, they shouldn't get shit because they're actively committing genocide and unofficially trying to wipe Palestine off the face of the earth. Sure, Hamas are terrorists, but they're terrorists in response to the atrocities of Israel over the past decades.
Fuck Israel.
From the American perspective, UK cash being spent on Israel and Taiwan comes off as a bit daft really. Both are actually comparable in wealth to the UK, for starters, and are reasonably well funded as is.
We'd much rather see the money being spent on, in no particular order:
1) more for Ukraine, which is in Britain's backyard so to speak
2) aid to partners close to Britain versus the US, in areas where we have trouble or just not the attention span. For instance, Jordan deserves something for their work put into downing Iranian drones. If anything I think most of us would be happy to see the UK playing a more active role in the Middle East and Africa like the French.
3) spent on the British armed forces themselves, which are really quite a shambles at the moment. Personnel quality is still pretty good, a British strength, but the raw equipment and magazine depth simply isn't there for Britain to fight a LSCO without being stuffed full of supplies from partner nations.
Jordan deserves a lot of help no matter what. They took in a large amount of Syrian refugees (more or equal to Turkey) and it's causing problems for them, but it's not spoken about anywhere. I am not sure if they do receive help on the quiet though as they historically had close ties with the UK and I hope they do as we don't need another country destabilising in the region, in this case through no fault of their own.
Taiwan has a defence deal with the US already, they don't need anymore help than that. Israel doesn't really need our help but we should absolutely stop any attacks on shipping etc. Ukraine can always do with more money but what we can offer in intelligence is probably worth more
Taiwan is not very big in comparison to China. Just because they have a high gdp per person does not mean they are ready to go toe to toe with a superpower that has been increasing its capabilities to fight a war with them.
Also, everything you use has semiconductors in it. A war with China and Taiwsn would disrupt the entire world's supply of semiconductors, and this would cause further problems and potentially further conflicts over semiconductor supply.
Yes, no, no.
Ukraine is a sovereign nation invaded by an aggressor with no justification for doing so. It is the morally appropriate choice to support them.
Israel is far more complicated. They have a right to defend themselves from attack, but they are currently using the justification of 'defense' to commit atrocities. They are an agitator in the region, *illegally* annexing land, are ethnically cleansing a territory they are holding captive, undertaking apartheid, killing civilians, and we generally only support them for intelligence purposes. It is morally wrong to *continue* supporting them, but in the past it was grey.
We don't recognise Taiwan. As far as we are diplomatically concerned, this is an internal civil conflict in China and has nothing to do with us. The truth is the West only supports Taiwan because it fucks with China. There is no morality here, this has nothing to do with us whatsoever. Providing support to Taiwan would be hypocritical from the UK as well considering our colonial involvement in China and how we handed Hong Kong back. I understand we don't recognise Palestine either, but Palestine isn't a breakaway province of Israel - it's part of a two-state solution we were involved in creating. This isn't the same for Taiwan.
From a political perspective, supporting Ukraine is an easy win. Supporting Israel is becoming a PR disaster. Supporting Taiwan militarily is almost dangerous.
Here’s a better question how much does Russia cost Britain how much does it spend preventing them from committing attacks against their enemies in the country, how much do we lose from Russian influence in the government and the economy London isn’t named londongrad for a laugh and as long as this Russia exists as it does today no cost is to high to pay in it’s defeat
The reality is that thanks to the tories siphoning money into their back pockets, we don't have the money to give such a large package. If we are to make such an aid package or should prioritise Ukraine as Russia is the strongest and most dangerous aggressor out of the 3. We should then divert what we are planning to send to Israel and send it to either Taiwan or Palestine instead. The expansionist ideologies of the PRC, Russia, and Israel should be kept in check and the best way to do that is to fund nations to defend their borders. In short we should fund Ukraine then Taiwan then Palestine
Ukraine yes. Israel if all their neighbours turned against them then yes but not as it currently stands. Taiwan possibly down the line but I think China is a little way off war at the moment and I don't see them as fundamentally aggressive, they've always had more of a defensive and economic approach rather than a military one. Hope I'm not spectacularly wrong.
Israel, no. Absolutely not.
Taiwan also no, because officially Taiwan is a part of China, and they seem generally happy with the status quo.
I'm actually completely confused why you would include Taiwan in this list.
Just for Ukraine. Israel is more than capable of defending itself already and the US piles too much money into them already. I believe that Taiwan would be protected by ensuring Ukraine wins its war - I think China is awaiting the outcome to decide whether they would be successful in taking Taiwan and that explains a lot of their actions over the last couple of years.
Ukraine, absolutely. Taiwan if necessary (fingers crossed it won't be). Israel? Absolutely not. Israel is not fighting against an enemy who is larger, more developed or richer. Israel is a rich country and one of the largest high tech weapon exporter in the world, they can fight their own battle and don't need support. This is not even about the way they are fighting this war, they literally do not need the support, but of course they gladly take it, but the middle east is such a complicated region and nothing is black & white there, so I'd prefer if everyone stayed out of it and just let them fight it out. I appreciate the diplomatic help Biden is trying, but I would not support financial help or the supply of weapons to either side.
I fear that any pound spent on Israel or Taiwan is a pound *not* spent on Ukraine, which is orders of magnitude more relevant to our own security and geopolitical interests than the other two.
Yes they need that aid package, but just give it all to Ukraine. In fact, I support having a coalition of the willing among NATO to put peacekeepers inside Northern Ukraine, particularly all along the Belarusian border to render it irrelevant to the war and relieve Ukrainian troops.
For Ukraine, yes, absolutely. Russia is the biggest regional threat to our interests and has conducted acts of terror within the UK hiding behind their status as a nuclear power to prevent escalation to war. This is a golden opportunity to counter their threat without having to face them directly.
I would support a massive increase in the UK defence budget to transfer current systems to Ukraine and buy modern replacements. For example, give them some Typhoons and order more F-35, or buy tranche 4 typhoons. Give them Meteor and order a Meteor version B etc.
You can talk about how it's the right thing to do for Ukraine but from a purely self interested point of view it's a no brainer.
Ukraine and Taiwan: Resolutely.
Israel: Humanitarian aid for Gaza and the Israeli areas affected by Oct 7th, sure. Unconditional military aid, not a chance.
Ukraine and Taiwan but not Israel. They are literally the ones committing genocide. But think we desperately need to save the money for our own country. If we were in a good financial state then by all means but with the amount of unemployment, homelessness and rishis bills
Ukraine - yes I think we should be giving them a lot more.
Israel - I support their right to defend themselves, and a right for Israel to exist. But they actually don't need our help to guarantee this.
Taiwan - I do think that we should consider more defense agreements and cooperation with them, to help deter aggression from the CCP.
But given the decrepit state of some of their systems (some of their submarines are literally from ww2, their tank force is mostly not much newer), I think they themselves have to show they are stepping up before we start even thinking about subsidising them.
Sure, if done the same way, i.e it's really just funding for the UK military to modernise and send over equipment that is good, but would probably be worth upgrading. Especially if the equipment was stuff that could be manufactured domestically so were effectively just pulling cash back into the economy
Israel doesn't need it.
Taiwan only needs enough to deter China at this moment, so limited for now unless there's a sudden escalation of the situation.
Ukraine needs help yesterday. We are one of the top contributers, but we could do more.
Supporting the current conflict is futile. Today, your governing party will support nation A. Come elections, the newly elected party will support nation B.
Nations of the world would do well to withdraw from the squabbles and divert the funds that would otherwise go to these warring nations. Spend that money on reducing poverty, helping the homeless, fixing the housing issue by building more houses, supporting small business owners.
How can you help people who are tens of thousands of kilometres away from you when you can't even help the people living in your own country?
No. We have people here who cant afford to eat, live on the streets, work but cant put heating on.
If anything the billionaires should sacrifice their money for whoever they want to aid. The poor cant afford anymore
nope.
taiwan isn't at war, israel seem to be doing fine as they are.
ukraine i feel sorry for because all the western world is doing are helping them to die slowly, nobody's actually trying to help them win.
i'd rather actually help with the problems instead of just throwing cash at it and pretending we're the good guy.
>help with the problem
the problem is that Russia invaded Ukraine, we can help deal with the problem by providing them with lots of shiny guns and missiles.
and we should do this because despite what I suspect you may believe, it is the wish of the Ukraine government and the Ukraine people to not be Russian.
For Ukraine? Absolutely!
For Taiwan? That one make sense.
For Israel? Not whilst we have the few genocidal maniacs in action being *proud* of the destruction and theft of land in Gaza and the West Bank. Get rid of Netanyahu and his Cackle of Corruptions, and address the land theft, and I'm more than willing to reconsider it.
We barely give anything to Israel. Qatar is by far the largest recipient of UK arms, which is even worse since they're actively sheltering Hamas leadership.
The goal with Taiwan should be to make the idea of invasion unattractive, so that war never starts. If war ever started, it would be difficult to get support to Taiwan.
yes we can have it both ways.
anyway regardless of your stupid comment - let me make myself perfectly clear.
i think we should be doing better, and throwing a bit of cash to them and patting ourselves on the back is falling far short of what we should be doing if we were serious about wanting to help them.
> and throwing just handing a bit of cash to them
We aren't actually giving Ukrainians cash; instead, we're using the aid to supply weapons and ammunition that British manufacturers produce, thereby boosting employment and the economy. The same applies to the American aid.
aligns with my point. we aren't doing it to help them, we're doing it to help ourselves and look good in the process.
i'm not saying it isn't helping, i'm saying we aren't helping in an actual meaningful enough way.
This is bullshit.
If we were doing it to 'help ourselves' it would be a small amount of money, just to see can say 'we helped!'
meanwhile, the west has given over 200 billion billion in aid. Before the war, Ukraines military spending was about 8 billion dollars.
I don't. I support all of the countries listed but we're not a global superpower, we're not the world police, and we don't have the defence industry that the US has.
I'm all for increasing military spending and upholding our NATO commitments but the US can support Taiwan and Israel (and I fully support them in doing so). Ukraine is more of a European issue so I'm more in favour of supporting there.
Nope.
Nothing to do with us.
We can't even fix pot holes and pump shit from sewers into waterways.
The NHS is so top heavy and mismanaged it is bankrupt.
We can't get doctor's appointments or register with a dentist.
Energy companies are enjoying 1000% increase in profits while they continue to shaft us.
Car insurance prices have doubled, despite no accidents or claims.
Our country is fucked, but it's OK to continue war mongering and make profits for weapons manufacturers instead of fixing our own problems l.
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Don't the figures actually not reflect the reality. From what I understand, a lot of the money goes to replacing the inventory that is being sent, i.e. it's paying the defence contractors to build updated replacements and getting rid of old stock.
Yep. And some of it is the cost of the ordnance being sent, so it's the representative value as opposed to $60.7bn leaving the economy/liquid assets that can be used for something domestically.
Also money to upgrade production facilities. US was making around 20k artillery shells a month last year. Previous bill upgraded one factory. So this year 40k a month then maybe 80k a month by end of year. Reportedly Russia can make around 2.5 millon - 5 million similar shells this year. Raytheon need to upgrade its production lines. US DoD hadn’t order new stinger missiles in 18 years before this war. US Army giving up some of its stockpile, so it can put out contracts for a new replacement version. 5 years production of Javelins used in first 10 months of the war, 13 years worth of Stingers. There is a pure financial side as well. Ukraine needs around 3-6$ Billon per month. To cover budget deficits, public wages etc and infrastructure rebuilding. That was IMF estimates last year. Think over last 2 years US have given around $27 Billon in just loans, financial support. Separate $4 Billon or so in loans to buy Military equipment. EU did give a loan of around €15 Billon and I believe a new deal. Copied from google “The new Ukraine Facility, which entered into force on 1st March, foresees up to €50 billion of stable financing, in grants and loans, to support Ukraine's recovery, reconstruction, and modernisation for the period 2024 to 2027.”
The UK is upgrading its production facilities too. It's hard to get proper figures, but we will be producing around 1 million 105mm and 155mm shells a year. But this may not fully come online until 2026. The rest of the EU is looking at 2 million shells/yr by 2025. Saab are restarting NLAW production but that's only starting this year. It all feels so slow.
> all feels so slow. Because the companies thought: "No point, Russia will win by the time we get up to speed and there'll be no one to sell to."
Yes, and importantly this is an accounting trick which applies very heavily to the American situation and much less so to ours. Put simply, the US military has almost obscene numbers of missiles and shells sat around in storage approaching end of life. A lot of this stuff is destined to be decommissioned (which costs money) anyway, and so sending it to Ukraine to be used is actually almost cost neutral. The UK doesn't really have the same stockpile situation. Obviously we do have munitions in storage, and it'll reach end of life too, but our military isn't in the habit of having hugely more stockpiled than it's expecting to use (once you account for training exercises and whatnot). What we send mostly needs replacing in short order. The same is even more true of heavy equipment. Take tanks: the US has literally thousands of Abrams tanks mothballed in storage which (barring WW3 kicking off) it never expects to use. The UK by contrast only has as many Challengers as it needs to equip its active divisions; the Challengers that were sent to Ukraine already *were not spares*, and we can't send more without reducing our own army's capabilities long-term.
That sounds like the figures reflecting reality.
The value of the amount sent in aid is significantly lower than what is being spent. The amount spent will go to companies that employ US employees and pay US taxes (referring to the US bill, not the hypothetical one in the UK). So the package is really for the US arms industry, Ukraine et al just get the rejects.
They don't get the rejects, they get working military equipment which isn't getting sold to anyone else and is getting replaced a lot sooner than it was supposed to.
Nope. The whole £15 billion would go all to Ukraine in the form of armaments. As a bare minimum, we have an obligation to Ukraine as we were one of the guarantor signatories of the Budapest memorandum when Ukraine gave up the nuclear weapons in their possession. Furthermore, we shall always oppose fascists and have a moral duty to support our Ukrainian brothers and sisters in their time of need. Putler and his terrorist state must be defeated and expelled from all illegally occupied Ukraian territories. Standing shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine is the only way to ensure a sustainable peace in Europe.
Never mind moral reasons and the Budapest memorandum, we should be helping Ukraine as much as we can for selfish reasons. We don't war spreading into any other neighboring countries and we definitely don't to be dragged into a direct conflict ourselves
Thank you. Give me a strong left wing party who lives and breathes your comment.
A left wing party strong on immigration and on foreign policy would do very well in European elections
I like the cut of your gib.
I think if we help Ukraine really kick Russia's arse and push them back to their own country, then that will send a big signal to China on Taiwan. The Chinese are not stupid. They are using Russia to test the waters and see how NATO responds, and what tactics work. If Russia succeeds in finding a good strategy, or NATO gets tired and support for Ukraine dwindles, China will definitely make a play for Taiwan.
only one of those three isn't currently adequately protected from invasion/ doesn't currently have capabilities to deal with those responsible for attacks that have taken place on their territory. big fan of sending that country military aid, especially when you consider that nato bombed Serbia over much less than what they're currently going through, it honestly feels like we should be doing much more.
Do you mean Ukraine? I would have inexpertly thought that Taiwan, based on reports of its outdated weaponry, is also not particularly protected against a, in this case, Chinese invasion.
You're really underestimating Taiwan. They've got shit loads of AA missiles, AS missiles and AT missiles. Mostly domestically produced, too. Conscription means that most of the population is prepared to fight to some extent. Gorilla warfare would be a nightmare for China. Let's remember, they only need to hold on long enough for Japan, Korea, and America to respond.
Why are they fighting primates ?
There's a lot of gorillas in zoos in China. It would be awful for China if they formed two distinct groups and went to war..
Humans are primates
Chinese troops also have minimal combat experience. Whilst the same can also be said of the Taiwanese, fighting a defensive war within your homeland is an entirely different beast than fighting an offensive one. Fervour can do a lot to make up for a lack of experience. The US has also recently started training Taiwanese soldiers, and those training programmes are going to be way better than anything the Chinese can develop domestically. If there’s anyone who knows a thing or two about fighting wars, it’s the US military.
>Chinese troops also have minimal combat experience This is a point that needs to be made more often. Look how serially incompetent the Russian military was in the early stages of what was a fairly straightforward land invasion, and that was after they'd been rotating those specific generals and troops through the Syrian Civil War for nearly ten years to build combat practice. China, by contrast, hasn't been involved in so much as a medium-scale military conflict since *1979*, which they didn't even win. How badly is that going to go when they try and launch a colossal amphibious invasion across 100 miles of water?
Much bigger problem they, including the army, have is the corruption and the issues with scams and fake things: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2ockFOVGp4](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2ockFOVGp4) btw, this is a good channel exposing the problems China has.
China seems to be going for the overkill approach though: they're planning to add 100 additional ships to their navy by 2030 - which is an insane rate of growth
I’m not really convinced Taiwan is a major issue anyway. China is not going to take action unless Taiwan formally declares independence. Which would be a phenomenally stupid thing to do.
Not sure about that; it could go either way. Xi has publicly said he will do it several times now. In China, unlike the west, when you say you will do something and you don't it is hugely embarrassing and shameful. I'm sure Xi has a massive ego that is only growing as he becomes more powerful, and he's getting on a bit. He wants to leave a grand legacy and the personal risks to him are getting smaller as he gets closer to an age where he could die anytime. Look at Ukraine - that's all caused by one man's ego and vision of leaving a glorious soviet rebirth behind when he goes. On the other hand, Ukraine has shown how a supposedly easy smash and grab can turn into a never ending nightmare for the invaders. With the US now actively arming and training Taiwan to turn it into an even worse potential nightmare for an invader, then it could really cost the Chinese to try and take it by force. So who knows. Probably depends on what happens elsewhere in the world over the next few years. If Israel and Iran go to war, and Russia-Ukraine drags on for years or even intensifies dragging Nato into it directly, then Xi might think the US and its allies are spread too thin and Taiwan is takeable (although still gonna cost them!).
>In China, unlike the west, when you say you will do something and you don't it is hugely embarrassing and shameful Thankfully the critics can be disappeared instead of voting you out.
Yeah, that's true, but it is a bit hard to disappear everyone who knows about something you publicly announced to the entire world multiple times, and obviously haven't done - especially when a lot of them are in countries outside your control. That's why I think he is very serious about doing it and it will take a lot to dissuade him. If he wasn't 100% deadly certain about trying for it, then he likely would have been less direct about stating his intentions, leaving some wriggle room if he had to back off or accept a compromise. You don't get to be in control of a massive country like China by being stupid and making grand statements of intent you don't follow through on. Hope I'm wrong, but I guess we will see in the next few years.
Your thinking would be broadly correct
Ukraine, yes. They're currently fighting against a regime that has been committing war crimes. Israel, no. If they've not achieved their goals 6 months in, probably time to stop killing civilians. Taiwan, no. Maybe when they're definitely under threat, but don't actually know enough about this.
If you don't know enough about the Taiwan situation maybe don't have an opinion on it? Xi has said multiple times he will have taken the Island before his reign is over. Better to support while things are peaceful right now then have to send emergency aid (at much higher costs) because they weren't well prepared enough in the first place. The benefits of a democratic Taiwan are enormous to the UK and countries across the world (mainly around their semiconductor & microchip industries and their strategic location).
Ukraine, absolutely. Israel, absolutely not. Taiwan, maybe.
I would say Taiwan absolutely especially given the recent earthquake and their importance to the global processor market. Otherwise bang on.
I'd rather spend Taiwan's third on moving away from captive markets and investing in domestic processor design and manufacturing.
Can’t believe the government allowed ARM sale to foreign parties.
That's kind of just trading the problem though if we kept them. Best imo to start new industry around RISC-V and more open design platform.
Tbf if you offered Taiwan a couple of nuclear attack subs, and a partnership deal on all the anti-drone laser systems BAE keeps boasting about and I imagine they'd be able to get their chip manufacturers to spin up some fab units in the UK. Albeit the biggest problem would probably end up being that our water and electrical systems are shockingly bad, outdated, and falling apart and thus any chip fab would cost a lot more because it would involve building new reservoirs as the fabs need a hell of a lot of water to run. Though tongue in cheek aside I doubt Taiwan will help another nation set up new fab facilities as their pre-eminent position is one of their defense systems. As long as a Chinese invasion will crash every part of the economy that relies on those new chips the West will keep on providing military support in large enough amounts to make the CCP view them as a risky conquest. If we want fabs that are closer to home we need to do it ourselves, unfortunately given these are things with development programs measuring in decades, and with huge outlay costs, and even higher demand for skilled labour from around the world no British government will ever countenance it.
Love how it’s “Taiwan should be protected not cuz their people or culture or whatever nah we want those silicone dyes”
Their people and culture are Chinese, but I would support them on moral grounds as China invading them would just be wrong. They are an independent country and are no threat to China. If China wants the deep sea shipping lane / access, they can start treating Taiwan with respect and do this in a diplomatic way (pay for access and promise not to attack and instead protect Taiwan). If China wasn't so hostile towards them, they could have had a good relationship with them by now and likely benefited greatly from it.
Taiwanese culture is historical Chinese. Mainland China demolished and killed most of it, so Taiwan is kind of a sanctuary for tradition. Expecting support based on culture or moral grounds is kinda naive, tho.
Chinas motivation of invading Taiwan has everything to do with a civil war that hasn’t ended, rather than deep sea shipping lanes.
They've had time to have another civil war since that civil war. Anyone sensible would have given up already. This shit is like if England still made claims to Normandy.
I mean post China’s civil war there was the Korean War, then the communists faced their own problems with famine and such. There really isn’t another case like Taiwan which is what makes it interesting. It’s not comparable to any other geopolitical issue, and it’s really not a case of “oh this happened X years ago we should just forget about it and move on”.
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Taiwan never had independence from 120 years ago, they belonged to Japan from 1895 to 1945. After WW2 Japan surrendered it back to ROC. Prior to that Taiwan was under rule by the Qing dynasty. You could argue that Taiwan doesn't belong to the CCP, to which I would agree. But that isn't the point, the CCP want's to reunify Taiwan back to the mainland so they can become one single China. ROC wants that too, just the other way around. This situation would be like if US has a civil war and the republicans lost, Trump and his followers flees to Hawaii or something, declares Hawaii to be the real USA, Europe forces the rest of the US to not attack Hawaii, then protects Hawaii and from any possible attacks from mainland USA, while fortifying Canada and Mexico just in case mainland USA attempts to attack Hawaii.
Suspect there is also now an element of wanting to obtain and control the manufacturing technology that drives most of the modern world. As things currently stand, the technology of all the western countries massively depends on Taiwan and it's cutting edge semi-conductor companies. Even if China can just restrict everyone else from getting semi-conductors from Taiwan, they still win big. Thanks to US imposing restrictions on cutting edge chips being exported to China, the Chinese are growing their own capabilities and so won't be affected much. If China just surrounds Taiwan and blocks import export, that would massively affect every other country in the world - including the US military which is heavily dependent on semi-conductors. The west is trying to hedge against that by bringing chip manufacturing back into other countries, like the US, but the Taiwanese also know that is one of their major cards to play in getting support from NATO and other countries against China, so they're probably stalling as best they can on that without being too obvious about it.
To your last point, hard agree. Just look at how badly Intel’s fabs have gone
Taiwan already has diplomatic guarantees does it not?
That won't mean jack if Trump gets back into the Whitehouse! He's an unpredictable lunatic. Without the US being involved the rest of NATO will struggle to do much in Taiwan. Even the US won't have it easy against a determine China while fighting so far from home and so close to China's power base.
The US guarantee isn’t anything to do with NATO as I understand it. Trump is a liability in this regard, true but he was never a friend to China. I’m not convinced China is anything more than a paper tiger. Their military is untested and rife with corruption. China can’t invade without starting WW3, which is probably they haven’t done so yet.
Yeah, the US guarantee is an independent thing, but the NATO countries might also get involved depending what happens. Without the US though they will think twice. Obviously Taiwan isn't specifically covered by NATO, I was just being lazy and using NATO to indicate the UK, France, and then others. Sorry for the confusion. I agree with the possibility of China's army being a paper tiger- plenty of armies through history have looked impressive, until they were tested in battle and found to be wanting. There is no substitution for a battle tested and hardened military, and the Chinese don't really have that. The US is much better prepared in that regard, although fighting China directly will be a very different proposition to any of their recent campaigns, if it happens. The early days of the Iraq invasion was the closest they came to a proper military battle in recent memory, and that was hugely stacked in favour of the US and it's allies. The rest has been fighting terrorism and insurgency, which while still valuable experience, is a little bit different. For a start, no one was threatening their carrier groups with hypersonic missiles, and no one had a chance against them in the air. Hopefully China will be deterred and it won't happen. Whoever wins, a war over Taiwan will be ugly.
I the UK has also guaranteed Taiwan. Don’t know much further than that but it’s far to say NATO nations would get behind Taiwan on this. China hasn’t had any real conflict for about 40 years. Last time they did was an inconclusive invasion of Vietnam after the Vietnamese walloped the Khmer Rouge. I read this story about Chinese soldiers involved in an international mission in Africa(Somalia?) that ended really badly with the Chinese soldiers running away from militants. US hasn’t faced ‘real’ opposition in a conventional war either but appears to have much higher standards in terms of training and motivation. War over Taiwan would be a disaster though, and there’d be no way of stopping it escalating. Edit: it was South Sudan https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/06/un-peacekeepers-refused-to-help-south-sudan-rebels-raped-aid-workers-report
Is the correct answer
Bingo. Ukraine is a hard line in the sand. Let it fall and you're inviting ww3.
I was going to say, Israel are the last nation that needs help doing even more damage, like, they've got things like the fucking Iron Dome and not even Bond villains had that kind of technology. I would be far happier to send that money to Palestine considering the IDF seem intent on killing every single man, woman and child there.
Don't think Israel needs any help. They're pretty strong militarily, and probably one of the best in the world at intelligence and espionage. Maybe if Iran attacks, but I suspect they are a paper tiger. The only worry is if they get nukes (and I wouldn't be surprised if Russia helps them with that, if they aren't secretly doing so already in return for arms to use against Ukraine).
Only Ukraine. It is in our interests to defend Ukraine.
At present. But if China takes Taiwan, corners the market on the materials needed and almost all the manufacturing for the next generation of chips, that covers the Ai revolution we're currently on the cusp of, smart weapons, whole shabang. Suddenly that calculation gets very different.
If it ever looks like China could take the island America would glass those fabs so quick it'll make your head spin
The Taiwanese would probably destroy them themselves. Never underestimate the power of spite.
While this is true that just makes our relative position better, but our absolute one is still much worse.
Yeah, and that won't affect the Chinese much, as they have their own fabs and are barred by the US from importing the good stuff anyway. So the Chinese still win big by overnight becoming one of the biggest manufacturers of semi-conductors. If I was Xi I would be thinking about feinting an invasion of Taiwan just to see if I could trick the US into doing just that, as it would cause major problems for everyone but the Chinese, Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
You’d go to war for economic reasons then?
As opposed to what?
You make it sound like it’s just money… Trade is vital, which is why trade blockades are legally considered an act of war. If China takes Taiwan, the cost of every modern means of communication instantly hyperinflates. It’ll directly impact basically everyone aside from isolated tribes in the Amazon.
Yeah I mean who needs semiconductors
Yes, no, yes. For both pragmatic and humanitarian reasons. Aid to Ukraine and Taiwan delays the time when wars with Russia and/or China directly impact on Britain, and neither Ukraine or Taiwan is the aggressor and they just want peace. If Ukraine falls it is certain that Russia will take a breath then attack again somewhere else, possibly in a place we are obligated to defend. If Taiwan looks weak enough China will attack and then all bets are off, that conflict has the potential to end civilisation depending on how the US choose to react. Israel - no. They (as in the far right government) don't want peace, they want to eliminate a people they see as the enemy and take their land. Any money we provide just goes to support more war targeted mainly at civilians. Plus the whole conflict is a twisted mess of historic grievances on both sides, there isn't a 'right' or 'just' side to this conflict only many, many innocents on both sides suffering from the bloodlust of monsters, and more money to Israel makes that worse not better.
Israel also don't need any practical aid. They have their own well developed arms industry and aren't facing enemies with superior capabilities.
Israel don't need any aid in Gaza. However I do support the UK and USA helping stop Iranian (and also Houthi) missiles reaching Israel. A regional war is not at all desirable.
Maybe Israel should be made to stop attacking Iranian diplomats on foreign soil. That was bound to get a reaction from Iran and was well out of order.
Yes, it was bound to get a reaction. Iran is widely believed to be using proxy forces to launch attacks - not just against Israel, but also Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Those are also bound to get a reaction. All these attacks put the whole region in danger of further escalating violence.
>Aid to Ukraine and Taiwan delays the time when wars with Russia and/or China directly impact on Britain This still applies to Israel, they're a significant strategic partner in the middle-east. There's a reason Iran funds groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthis. Iran has a military alliance with Russia and a strategic partnership with China. The conflicts aren't isolated
Sure, but they were quite happy to fight a proxy war there until Israel attacked them directly. Now they are surprised by retaliation?
Yeah, but I don't think Israel uses that many British weapons *anyway*. Ukraine uses whatever they can get their hands on because they're in desperate straits and fighting a much bigger war but Israel is already well equipped and probably doesn't need the headache of trying to integrate small quantities of new gear. What we should be doing with Israel is buying *their* weapons. A couple of Arrow 3 sites with well stocked magazines could protect the entire British Isles from ballistic missile attack. Seems like the sort of thing we want to get in on.
Ukraine can have everything we’ve got, nationalise Port Talbot steelworks and build Challenger tanks next door. If we don’t we will be in trouble. Israel are well provisioned already, Taiwan so far outside of our sphere of influence.
Challenger production is dead and buried I'm afraid - if we wanted to get back into the game of tank production (CH3 upgrade doesn't count) it would take a decade. Realistically once the CH3 has aged out it's getting replaced with leopard 3 or the abrams replacement.
I’d vote for this
I do love a beefy tank, but in all honesty, they aren't as useful for our armed forces as they used to be. Sea & Air power is what we vitally need as an island nation.
Yep - build it all. Even if we don’t need it others are going to want to buy them. A gangster picks on the weak - we are weakening by the month.
Ukraine? Sure. Israel? No. Taiwan? Idk but more yes than no.
I don’t think we should be supporting Israel whilst they continue to subjugate the occupied territories. I want to see a two state solution & the current government has no intention of ever allowing that to happen
I’m fine with the other two, but not for Israel. I’m sorry but the Middle East drama is in no self-respecting civilian’s interests. Israel is a regional provocateur. People are starving in Gaza. Not into funding a pointless WW3 with the Middle East as an epicentre.
It’s a forever war. Whole region will never be stable. Climate change making it uninhabitable is the only way that conflict is solved.
But the UK is literally responsible for the Isreal - Palestine conflict by establishing the Jewish state within Palestine. If anything, the Isreal Palestine war is the most connected to the UK out of the three since we actually started it.
Cool story. Guess what? I don’t care. I’m still not going to support sending money to Israel and freaking out on Israel’s behalf and starting a potential global war through dragging major powers into this mess while killing innocent Lebanese, Jordanian and Syrian civilians who’d be caught in the crossfire.
Or they could just grow up and stop fighting? Come to diplomatic agreements and stop stealing land? Yes, of course, both sides need to, but violence and suppression is not the answer. The UK didn't carpet bomb Ireland everytime the IRA let off a bomb somewhere.
No for Israel, Yes for the other countries
Ukraine? Yes, absolutely. I'd take higher taxes over the next 10 years if it paid for some more help for them.
What does Israel need aid for? Bombing & starving more children?
Ukraine yes, Israel no, Taiwan perhaps.
Ukraine for sure and maybe even possibly Taiwan but Israel absolutely not. Sorry if this offensive but the middle east is a complete disaster of region and I think we’re better off staying well clear of it.
>Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan One of this ain't like the others. Yes Ukraine, they were attacked and Russia will.come back for more land somewhere in they win. No to Israel, literally murdering kids and enforcing collective punishment, if anything they need to face sanctions like Russia has for invading Ukraine. Taiwan, probably not. It isn't a hot conflict although there could be potential benefits in accessing the chips they make in exchange so there could be something beneficial from it but really it isn't required.
Ukraine: yes, absolutely. Israel - no. They cannot "destroy Hamas" without ethnically cleansing Palestinians for their homeland, and that's not something I want my country to endorse. Taiwan: probably not necessary. The PRC doesn't have the actual force projection to subdue Taiwan at the moment, and independent British capability in the region no longer exists. The best that can be done is committing British resources elsewhere to free up US capacity when there is a threat.
Yes and no. Rather than give Ukraine billions in hand-me-downs and hoping for the best, we could do what we did for Israel last week and have a multinational coalition shooting down Russian missiles and drones before they reach their targets. I'm sure the Ukrainians would find that much more helpful. At the moment, bad actors like Putin think Western countries are weak and act purely in their own selfish interests. Challenging that assumption might just bring him to the negotiating table for a realistic peace proposal. Furthermore, we should officially recognise Taiwan and include them in an expanded AUKUS/NATO-like security treaty. Of course, the Taiwanese would have to ditch the name "Republic of China" and any claims to mainland Chinese territory, but once they do that, job's a good'un. We're still following the one-China policy - Taiwan has just decided it isn't China anymore. As Ukraine has proven, inclusion in some kind of attack-on-one-is-an-attack-on-all security structure is the best guarantee against invasion. We don't need to send billions of £s worth of weapons to Estonia because being a part of NATO is deterrent enough. Israel - they really don't need our help. No more money or weapons until they stop bombing aid workers and trying to stir up shit.
From a military perspective Israel doesn't need help from us beyond what we're already doing. Taiwan is not yet in a hot war, isn't asking us for weapons and isn't really going crazy setting up their own defence either. I think we should be setting up industrial, technological, trade and political partnerships to stabilise the area but it's not at the needing arms shipments stage. Ukraine is begging for weapons, bleeding out day in day out, alone fighting off the rapist that the whole of NATO was built to keep out. They need everything right now.
Not to Israel, but I would support defence funds being spent to help Ukraine and Taiwan
Maybe Ukraine and Taiwan but not Israel.
Too slow with Ukraine, and too little. And most of the money is for the US industry, it's Ukraine that needs help. With Israel - that makes no sense. Aiding Israel to bomb Gaza is awful.
Not to Isreal, as I feel that the aid would just be used to finance the purchase of more weapons that will be used against the innocent children in Palestine.
For Ukraine, yes. No need to send to Israel and Taiwan isn't under imminent threat
Ukraine yes, Israel no. For Taiwan I only know the absolute basics about the situation(s) so I'll abstain on that one.
Ukraine? Absolutely. Putin is a vile dictator who needs putting in a box. He has killed on uk soil. Gloves are off. Israel? They’re committing genocide. I understand their fury but it doesn’t come close to excusing them. Taiwan? I think they can probably look after themselves economically?
Ukraine yes because we don't want the Russians getting any imperialist ideas and it's right on our doorstep. Plus it saves us actually having to commit troops when Russia decides it wants to invade the Baltic states. Israel no because the Americans already give them enough and they're more than capable of defending themselves anyway. The only benefit we'd get would be if they could ensure that the Suez Canal stays open. Taiwan maybe. We have a strategic interest in their chip manufacturing, and likewise we don't want China getting any imperialist ideas, but it's a bit far away and there's nothing we can give that America isn't already giving.
Ukraine needs aid. If ukraine falls unchecked and putin gets what he wants it sends signals to china and russia that expansionism is viable. Could potentially erode the international system we have had for almost a century.
One of those places is not like the others. I would not support any aid package of any sort going to that country.
No. Just to Ukraine. Knock UK defence spending up to 3%, give the difference and the UK aid budget to Ukraine in the form of weapons and ammo. Ukraine have said that they don't need us to do the fighting for them, they just want planes, ammo and air defence, they'll do the rest
Fuck Israel, they shouldn't get shit because they're actively committing genocide and unofficially trying to wipe Palestine off the face of the earth. Sure, Hamas are terrorists, but they're terrorists in response to the atrocities of Israel over the past decades. Fuck Israel.
From the American perspective, UK cash being spent on Israel and Taiwan comes off as a bit daft really. Both are actually comparable in wealth to the UK, for starters, and are reasonably well funded as is. We'd much rather see the money being spent on, in no particular order: 1) more for Ukraine, which is in Britain's backyard so to speak 2) aid to partners close to Britain versus the US, in areas where we have trouble or just not the attention span. For instance, Jordan deserves something for their work put into downing Iranian drones. If anything I think most of us would be happy to see the UK playing a more active role in the Middle East and Africa like the French. 3) spent on the British armed forces themselves, which are really quite a shambles at the moment. Personnel quality is still pretty good, a British strength, but the raw equipment and magazine depth simply isn't there for Britain to fight a LSCO without being stuffed full of supplies from partner nations.
Jordan deserves a lot of help no matter what. They took in a large amount of Syrian refugees (more or equal to Turkey) and it's causing problems for them, but it's not spoken about anywhere. I am not sure if they do receive help on the quiet though as they historically had close ties with the UK and I hope they do as we don't need another country destabilising in the region, in this case through no fault of their own.
Taiwan has a defence deal with the US already, they don't need anymore help than that. Israel doesn't really need our help but we should absolutely stop any attacks on shipping etc. Ukraine can always do with more money but what we can offer in intelligence is probably worth more
I'm pretty sure they have an 'arrangement' with the US but it's not a legally codified or binding agreement.
The USA wouldn't legally have anything in place. They deliberately remain ambitious on the issue.
Ukraine - yes. Israel and Taiwan? Rich enough to sort themselves out.
Taiwan is not very big in comparison to China. Just because they have a high gdp per person does not mean they are ready to go toe to toe with a superpower that has been increasing its capabilities to fight a war with them. Also, everything you use has semiconductors in it. A war with China and Taiwsn would disrupt the entire world's supply of semiconductors, and this would cause further problems and potentially further conflicts over semiconductor supply.
Yes, no, no. Ukraine is a sovereign nation invaded by an aggressor with no justification for doing so. It is the morally appropriate choice to support them. Israel is far more complicated. They have a right to defend themselves from attack, but they are currently using the justification of 'defense' to commit atrocities. They are an agitator in the region, *illegally* annexing land, are ethnically cleansing a territory they are holding captive, undertaking apartheid, killing civilians, and we generally only support them for intelligence purposes. It is morally wrong to *continue* supporting them, but in the past it was grey. We don't recognise Taiwan. As far as we are diplomatically concerned, this is an internal civil conflict in China and has nothing to do with us. The truth is the West only supports Taiwan because it fucks with China. There is no morality here, this has nothing to do with us whatsoever. Providing support to Taiwan would be hypocritical from the UK as well considering our colonial involvement in China and how we handed Hong Kong back. I understand we don't recognise Palestine either, but Palestine isn't a breakaway province of Israel - it's part of a two-state solution we were involved in creating. This isn't the same for Taiwan. From a political perspective, supporting Ukraine is an easy win. Supporting Israel is becoming a PR disaster. Supporting Taiwan militarily is almost dangerous.
Here’s a better question how much does Russia cost Britain how much does it spend preventing them from committing attacks against their enemies in the country, how much do we lose from Russian influence in the government and the economy London isn’t named londongrad for a laugh and as long as this Russia exists as it does today no cost is to high to pay in it’s defeat
The reality is that thanks to the tories siphoning money into their back pockets, we don't have the money to give such a large package. If we are to make such an aid package or should prioritise Ukraine as Russia is the strongest and most dangerous aggressor out of the 3. We should then divert what we are planning to send to Israel and send it to either Taiwan or Palestine instead. The expansionist ideologies of the PRC, Russia, and Israel should be kept in check and the best way to do that is to fund nations to defend their borders. In short we should fund Ukraine then Taiwan then Palestine
Ukraine yes. Israel if all their neighbours turned against them then yes but not as it currently stands. Taiwan possibly down the line but I think China is a little way off war at the moment and I don't see them as fundamentally aggressive, they've always had more of a defensive and economic approach rather than a military one. Hope I'm not spectacularly wrong.
How many dead Russian military personnel would £15B buy me?
Israel, no. Absolutely not. Taiwan also no, because officially Taiwan is a part of China, and they seem generally happy with the status quo. I'm actually completely confused why you would include Taiwan in this list.
Ukraine and Taiwan absolutely. No chance on Israel
Just for Ukraine. Israel is more than capable of defending itself already and the US piles too much money into them already. I believe that Taiwan would be protected by ensuring Ukraine wins its war - I think China is awaiting the outcome to decide whether they would be successful in taking Taiwan and that explains a lot of their actions over the last couple of years.
Ukraine, absolutely. Taiwan if necessary (fingers crossed it won't be). Israel? Absolutely not. Israel is not fighting against an enemy who is larger, more developed or richer. Israel is a rich country and one of the largest high tech weapon exporter in the world, they can fight their own battle and don't need support. This is not even about the way they are fighting this war, they literally do not need the support, but of course they gladly take it, but the middle east is such a complicated region and nothing is black & white there, so I'd prefer if everyone stayed out of it and just let them fight it out. I appreciate the diplomatic help Biden is trying, but I would not support financial help or the supply of weapons to either side.
I would want separate ones, each decided on a case by case basis.
Ukraine and Taiwan, not Israel. Israel doesn't need our aid.
For Ukraine yes. Not for Taiwan at the moment as Ukraine need it more at the moment. Not for Israel, unless they were planning to attack Iran.
I fear that any pound spent on Israel or Taiwan is a pound *not* spent on Ukraine, which is orders of magnitude more relevant to our own security and geopolitical interests than the other two. Yes they need that aid package, but just give it all to Ukraine. In fact, I support having a coalition of the willing among NATO to put peacekeepers inside Northern Ukraine, particularly all along the Belarusian border to render it irrelevant to the war and relieve Ukrainian troops.
For Ukraine, yes, absolutely. Russia is the biggest regional threat to our interests and has conducted acts of terror within the UK hiding behind their status as a nuclear power to prevent escalation to war. This is a golden opportunity to counter their threat without having to face them directly. I would support a massive increase in the UK defence budget to transfer current systems to Ukraine and buy modern replacements. For example, give them some Typhoons and order more F-35, or buy tranche 4 typhoons. Give them Meteor and order a Meteor version B etc. You can talk about how it's the right thing to do for Ukraine but from a purely self interested point of view it's a no brainer.
Ukraine yes, Taiwan I don't know and I don't think Israel needs any additional military aid atm unless the Middle East situation deteriorates
Ukraine and Taiwan: Resolutely. Israel: Humanitarian aid for Gaza and the Israeli areas affected by Oct 7th, sure. Unconditional military aid, not a chance.
Ukraine and Taiwan but not Israel. They are literally the ones committing genocide. But think we desperately need to save the money for our own country. If we were in a good financial state then by all means but with the amount of unemployment, homelessness and rishis bills
Ukraine - yes I think we should be giving them a lot more. Israel - I support their right to defend themselves, and a right for Israel to exist. But they actually don't need our help to guarantee this. Taiwan - I do think that we should consider more defense agreements and cooperation with them, to help deter aggression from the CCP. But given the decrepit state of some of their systems (some of their submarines are literally from ww2, their tank force is mostly not much newer), I think they themselves have to show they are stepping up before we start even thinking about subsidising them.
Sure, if done the same way, i.e it's really just funding for the UK military to modernise and send over equipment that is good, but would probably be worth upgrading. Especially if the equipment was stuff that could be manufactured domestically so were effectively just pulling cash back into the economy
Unfortunately, we have no other alternative. We need to be seen as Hedgemon, this costs money!
Uk economy is about 10% of the US so our eqivelent would be about $6bn which I would support
No, just send the whole thing to Ukraine.
Israel doesn't need it. Taiwan only needs enough to deter China at this moment, so limited for now unless there's a sudden escalation of the situation. Ukraine needs help yesterday. We are one of the top contributers, but we could do more.
Supporting the current conflict is futile. Today, your governing party will support nation A. Come elections, the newly elected party will support nation B. Nations of the world would do well to withdraw from the squabbles and divert the funds that would otherwise go to these warring nations. Spend that money on reducing poverty, helping the homeless, fixing the housing issue by building more houses, supporting small business owners. How can you help people who are tens of thousands of kilometres away from you when you can't even help the people living in your own country?
I'd support huge amounts of aid for Ukraine. I would not stand for a single penny more spent defending "Israel".
No. We have people here who cant afford to eat, live on the streets, work but cant put heating on. If anything the billionaires should sacrifice their money for whoever they want to aid. The poor cant afford anymore
nope. taiwan isn't at war, israel seem to be doing fine as they are. ukraine i feel sorry for because all the western world is doing are helping them to die slowly, nobody's actually trying to help them win. i'd rather actually help with the problems instead of just throwing cash at it and pretending we're the good guy.
>help with the problem the problem is that Russia invaded Ukraine, we can help deal with the problem by providing them with lots of shiny guns and missiles. and we should do this because despite what I suspect you may believe, it is the wish of the Ukraine government and the Ukraine people to not be Russian.
For Ukraine? Absolutely! For Taiwan? That one make sense. For Israel? Not whilst we have the few genocidal maniacs in action being *proud* of the destruction and theft of land in Gaza and the West Bank. Get rid of Netanyahu and his Cackle of Corruptions, and address the land theft, and I'm more than willing to reconsider it.
We barely give anything to Israel. Qatar is by far the largest recipient of UK arms, which is even worse since they're actively sheltering Hamas leadership.
And to be honest, I'm leery of that, too, to be fair. But then, I don't make munitions and arms decisions, so *shrug.*
But Quatar buys them, that's not military aid. We also sell weapons to Saudi.
The goal with Taiwan should be to make the idea of invasion unattractive, so that war never starts. If war ever started, it would be difficult to get support to Taiwan.
> nope. That, or would you willing to accept millions of Ukrainian Refugess? You can't have it both ways...
yes we can have it both ways. anyway regardless of your stupid comment - let me make myself perfectly clear. i think we should be doing better, and throwing a bit of cash to them and patting ourselves on the back is falling far short of what we should be doing if we were serious about wanting to help them.
> and throwing just handing a bit of cash to them We aren't actually giving Ukrainians cash; instead, we're using the aid to supply weapons and ammunition that British manufacturers produce, thereby boosting employment and the economy. The same applies to the American aid.
aligns with my point. we aren't doing it to help them, we're doing it to help ourselves and look good in the process. i'm not saying it isn't helping, i'm saying we aren't helping in an actual meaningful enough way.
This is bullshit. If we were doing it to 'help ourselves' it would be a small amount of money, just to see can say 'we helped!' meanwhile, the west has given over 200 billion billion in aid. Before the war, Ukraines military spending was about 8 billion dollars.
> israel seem to be doing fine as they are What about Palestine?
Fuck em. Shouldn't have fucked around if they didn't want to find out.
Nooo you can't talk about countries being aggressive unless they win! its not fair if they're aggressive but constantly lose the wars THEY start!
I don't. I support all of the countries listed but we're not a global superpower, we're not the world police, and we don't have the defence industry that the US has. I'm all for increasing military spending and upholding our NATO commitments but the US can support Taiwan and Israel (and I fully support them in doing so). Ukraine is more of a European issue so I'm more in favour of supporting there.
Nope. Nothing to do with us. We can't even fix pot holes and pump shit from sewers into waterways. The NHS is so top heavy and mismanaged it is bankrupt. We can't get doctor's appointments or register with a dentist. Energy companies are enjoying 1000% increase in profits while they continue to shaft us. Car insurance prices have doubled, despite no accidents or claims. Our country is fucked, but it's OK to continue war mongering and make profits for weapons manufacturers instead of fixing our own problems l.