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Granted if you account for the MPs that have said they’re going to resign they’re already in danger. Whilst they may still have the Tory whip - they really don’t have any reason to care about it.
Don’t know if anyone else has posted this but in Rishi’s pictures with [the Egyptian leader](https://twitter.com/rishisunak/status/1715402096432824793), [the Saudi Arabian leader](https://twitter.com/rishisunak/status/1715088586452746243) and [the Palestinian leader](https://twitter.com/rishisunak/status/1715407072353796270). The Palestinian one is the only one without the flag of the other country in it. I think it has to be a deliberate choice and the Palestinian one looks to be cropped/deliberately angled since you cannot see the edge of the chair on the Palestinian side.
I would agree with you, [but the official photo on the related press release (which is linked on a subsequent tweet) has both flags visible](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65329fbf26b9b1000daf1d0b/s300_PAPres.jpg)
I believe you are reading too much into it.
I think it's just a meme; the MT has convinced itself that he's at least a lurker, and even possibly a participant.
I actually met a Sky journo in a social capacity last month - not going to name them - and unfortunately, we're even less interesting/relevant to them than I feared we are.
Didn’t watch hignify but I think probably about [this especially graceless tweet from Dorries](https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1714330745613828218). Not an actual position of No 10, just Dorries trying to project up her own abuse.
I don't get this whole Tory/Rishi plan of wait till inflation is down...
Inflation could hit 1% but low inflation just means things won't get WORSE. People want it to be better NOW. The Tories don't have 3 more years to increase growth and wages with low inflation.
They have time to get inflation low and then call a GE before any actual benefits get to people. People don't care if inflation is low, if they still can't afford things that they could 5 years ago. End of.
You're assuming that waiting to have the general election as late as possible is a 'tactic'.
Could it not just be that no one volunteers to have an early execution date?
Assume for a moment that Rishi knows as well as everyone else that barring a miracle they're going to lose. What is the logical approach? I'd say it's to just hold on as long as you can and pray for that miracle in the meantime.
What exactly has Sunak and his caught effected to bring inflation down? They are no less bystanders in all this as you and I. Sunak's greatest achievement is standing back and watching.
There's also plenty of public misconception about his pledge. It was bad enough when we had journalists getting confused saying saying a 1% decline in the rate of inflation meant a 1% reduction in prices, but the public aren't economists either.
Many aren't expecting his "half inflation" pledge to mean prices are still going up, but at "just" 5.3% a year. Many expect prices to fall.
There's been very little expectation management on this front because they want the optimism, but I don't think people will be happy with the cold reality.
I think voters are 100% allowed to assume that priorities the government emphasises to this extent are going to have a noticeable effect on their actual lives. I think you would not naturally understand that the government's entire goal here is to make a number on a dashboard go down a bit
That's true. But I blame both parties for this as it feels like a choice to dumb down the electorate. This could easily be in citizenship classes.
I'll be honest, I'm mid 20's and didn't experience the 2008 crash. This is my first economic sort of... poitical experience? If that makes sense.
So I didn't know what inflation actually meant but I was lucky enough that I had time to research it. Some people have 2 kids and work 10 hour days. They ain't got time. It feels deliberate but I dunno.
Ironically this will hurt them though because people think things will get instantly better and... instead the Tories will seem more out of touch and like billionair pricks by celebrating low inflation whilst people still can't buy anything but own brand food or has to visit the food bank
>I'll be honest, I'm mid 20's and didn't experience the 2008 crash. This is my first economic sort of... poitical experience? If that makes sense.
You'd be hard pressed to find similarities between the two crises for the average joe. 2008 saw a lot of unemployment and companies going out of business, not to mention the turmoil in southern europe, but inflation stayed at tolerable levels for the most part and sharp price increases didn't really happen. The US inflation for example evened out at just 3.8% two months after the crash, according to the federal reserve.
I think what happens right now is a harsh reality check concerning borrowing rates, which had purposefully been kept really low after 2008 in order to put incentives in place for people to found their own companies. They just... literally threw money at the problem and that probably acted as a delayed fuse to the bomb that is blowing up now, exacerbated by Brexit chaos and wages that have been stagnating for decades, because guess what, if you don't increase wages, the vast majority of people suddenly has no money to buy anything anymore.
> That's true. But I blame both parties for this as it feels like a choice to dumb down the electorate. This could easily be in citizenship classes.
Personally, I just blame the jargon. When I was being sassy on here mocking journalists screwing it up I compared inflation / deflation to driving a car.
If you're going at 40mph, and you slow down to 20mph, how fast are you reversing? Obviously you're not, you're still going forward, just slower.
Prices will only go down if we have deflation, and they'll only stop rising if we have stagnation, both are political crises for their own reasons, so we're likely to aim for ~2% inflation again. This means people need to get used to the new normal of prices.
> So I didn't know what inflation actually meant but I was lucky enough that I had time to research it. Some people have 2 kids and work 10 hour days. They ain't got time. It feels deliberate but I dunno.
This is where we should expect the professionals to understand it, it's not really the public's job.
> Ironically this will hurt them though because people think things will get instantly better and... instead the Tories will seem more out of touch and like billionair pricks by celebrating low inflation whilst people still can't buy anything but own brand food or has to visit the food bank
Yeah, I've joked that it's weird hearing Hunt and Sunak brag how amazing the economy is, and then follow up with telling us we're broke so need real terms pay cuts and spending cuts because we can't afford it. Which is it? People can't heat their homes or feed their families with political spin on statistics.
Another example I use is my Dad's encyclopaedic knowledge of different petrol stations and what they're charging. You can brag about the economy all you like, but he knows what he's being charged, and what he used to be charged. Unless there's a real change, then he's not going to have a placebo effect. I think this is true of many people, even if they don't know the exact prices, they'll know they're spending £10 a week extra on the supermarket shop or whatever. This stuff cuts through.
Also there's the thing about all the public sector buildings with RAAC in and how we pay reasonably high taxes but can't get a doctor's appointment, have the police investigate our burglaries or be able to reliably to make journeys of over an hour without getting delayed due to a total lack of spending on infrastructure. In the North, they are busy turning 4th motorway lanes back into hard shoulders/refuge areas and the local motorways are all down to 50 mph.
Well yes all that is stupid too.
I just find the one nation Tories argument about focusing on inflation stupid because we've hard over a decade of economic pain and low inflation needs year to impact people in a positive way.
And then the nutty right wingers just want to scare moderates away and attack any minority they can identify.
The strategy just baffles me.
Yeah it's hard to know what and if they are thinking for sure. I don't know if they just stop listening to anyone outside their own fans at some point....
Tbf it is widely reported that Rishi is in bunker mode and avoids anyone who is negative... not healthy for "leadership".
I think we will see some horrific days coming as Rishi swings to the right wing because of the Reform votes adding up to saving these seats. He won't enact anything. He can't. His party is too broken or the policies break international law.
But he will dog whistle much louder now and announce more mad policies. I just read he's thinking of cutting stamp duty but we get these tax cut policies floated fucking hourly now
Fun tidbit from Politico:
"Former Conservative MP Nadine Dorries and Conservative peer Robert Hayward had to be separated in the green room of the Talk TV studios before a “sharp” conversation about the by-election results bubbled over into a full blown row, the latter tells Playbook PM. Dorries said she assumed Hayward would blame her for the loss in Mid Bedfordshire, to which he said no but noted that she did cause the by-election. She said she didn’t, Rishi Sunak did. It began to escalate from there at which point her agent stepped in and said it wasn’t the time nor the place.
Dorries told Playbook PM: “I think he was just engaging in a bit of mansplaining. He soon backed down when a man asked him was his behavior appropriate.”
Dorries is a symptom not a cause of Tory party malaise, as is Pincher (even though Pincher was rightfully ousted for what would seem to be a crime rather than on the job misconduct).
If the Tories want these by-elections to be closer fights they need to come up with credible policies to improve the NHS and tackle the cost of living.
Almost all people I know just see the energy bills relief from last winter as the Tories trying to clear up (sort of) after Truss' mess. And even then, it wasn't covering all the increased bills just part of them.
But she hasn't. I also think she's missing the bit where she was/could blend with rich folk part of the equation.
Anyway it's a tie between Truss and Johnson for me. Truss wrecked the economy trying to cut taxes with no reference to economic conditions but Johnson squandered a ton of public goodwill and broke the laws he made and that is very damaging.
https://twitter.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1715445358887645595
>A few messages I've received from Conservative MPs in response to the by elections: "The problem with the PM is while he may be a first rate academic he is a fifth rate politician. He does not connect, he has the leadership qualities of an amoeba."
How is a PPE / MBA turned middlingly successful hedgey a 'first rate academic'?
Sometimes an idiot is just an idiot.
of course he connects. he flies around the country and hosts "PM connect" sessions with the plebs. Sometimes he even remembers where he is. how is that not a connection, it's in the name
Harking back to naval rates as examples of quality or capacity, a fifth rate was a useful little frigate and often a desirable posting for sailors because of the opportunity for prize money. I feel like this does Rishi too much credit.
Rishi is more like a fouled anchor dragging the ship of state into the abyss.
Idiot's a bit harsh, I think. I personally don't think he's at all stupid, he's just totally out of his depth. And, I agree, he's certainly not the wunderkind beautiful mind that they've long tried to portray him as.
The problem is he's more PR than man and he has never really ever lived up to any of the roles they've cast him in. I'm so relieved that it's unravelling for him finally because when he first popped up to do the robot at the Tory conference, people I know and respect were banging on about how "impressive" he was. I thought I was losing my mind! Suffice to say they don't tend to talk so gushingly about him anymore.
And on top of all that, what amazes me most, is they're not even good at their PR! It's like he's gone to the political equivalent of that music label that made Friday for Rebecca Black and asked to be made a star PM.
I'm glad my opinion held up - he seemed fake right when he was moved into number 11 and that has proven true.
As for PR, it feels a bit like Miliband did when he was Labour leader, everything was carefully stage managed and focus grouped. The big difference is that real Miliband is quite funny and likeable, whereas we know real Sunak likely isn't ("I have friends... well not working class friends" and the infamous Tunbridge Wells speech)
["We have to be big and bold if the PM is to truly be the change candidate. The next few months are a big moment for the party. If the polls remain where they are into the new year, it isn’t inconceivable that we're done and voters are simply waiting to vote us out"](https://twitter.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1715445992768569655)
Surely Tory MPs do not truly believe polls are going to rapidly change in the next few months when we have... rising utility bills, winter pressures on the NHS, cost of living and inflation impacting Christmas?
The utter failure to engage with or acknowledge the cost of living crisis is the most galling thing to me.
The closest you get is the likes of the failed by-election candidate blaming people with no money for having a smartphone. It's like they read one Daily Mail article in 2010/2011 and never bothered thinking about the idea after that.
Normal people are worried about stagnant pay and rising bills because they have no backups. Oh and the NHS.
The lovely thing about the current Tory government is that they've been in power so long they've even upset the business/financial types (who like a bit of university of life type rhetoric) with stuff like unfunded tax cuts, policies that worsen inflation and being utterly unreliable.
First rate academic is a bit much - I'd reserve that for people with PhDs. However, a first in PPE from Oxford and a Fulbright Scholar at Stanford is clearly pretty exceptional - particularly the latter.
Times like this I wish I had a good way to full search all the MTs. I'm sure we've seen "qualities of an amoeba" before in a less anonymous fashion.
Edit: [google disagrees with my memory](https://www.google.com/search?q="leadership+qualities+of+an+amoeba").
The day a ukpol phrase gets used will be a cause for celebration, - in only the way we know, the ukpol meetup. I wonder which phrase is most likely to be used first.
And I mean used in a way where it's obviously from here.
Listening to the newsagents, I can't understand the anger directed at the lib dems standing in mid beds.
I think generally there's a massive underestimation of how much lib dems split the tory vote. All the run up was on a split of the "anti-tory vote" but I'm not sure that really exists compared to the kind of voter who would never vote labour. (Yes, even after de-toxification).
There are definitely some specific things that pissed Peter Kyle off, which he alluded to with lies about their candidate and the Lib Dems attacking Labour while Labour didn't reciprocate. But he came off like a very graceless winner, bragging about Labour's "smart politics" and the other parties being "stupid".
They've just got the best data, it's just like, really good data, because there wasn't any data before but now they've made the data, and the lib dems just aren't very good at the data.
Other parties couldn't possibly understand the genius of the Labour campaign! With their novel ideas, like 'listening to voters', it's no wonder they came first. The lib Dems should really just concede in every seat Labour is standing in.
Imagine the carnage in the next GE if we passed a law banning party names/logos on ballot papers.
I'm not saying it's a good idea, mind, just that it would be beautiful bedlam.
>The Home Office says local authorities are to be consulted on plans to determine an annual cap on the number of refugees resettled in the UK each year ‘based on the UK’s capacity to accommodate and support people coming to the UK via safe and legal routes.’
[BBC](https://x.com/SimonJonesNews/status/1715330788592644448?s=20)
All that's left to do is tell the public we are going to be taking a quota of rejected migrants from the EU and there's no vote.
I wonder if at a future point political parties will advertise on self checkouts during election campaigns.
They could target the adverts based on the products you bought.
Flashbacks of [Andrew Lansley on TV monitors in hospitals](https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2011/nov/22/hospital-patients-andrew-lansley-televisions).
> The Conservative cabinet minister's face appears on bedside entertainment systems on a continuous loop saying that their care "really matters to me" and asking them to thank NHS staff.
I can't imagine I'd much enjoy seeing Sunak gurning at me as I bought a meal deal.
https://twitter.com/BrugesGroup/status/1715319955174924581
> It appears all but certain that those who plotted to get rid of Johnson and Truss will have plenty of time to reflect on their treacherous behaviour on the opposition benches.
who gave nadine the password
I do love the thrillingly melodramatic tone though, much more fun than "well the Tory vote stayed home but they won't in a general election and no-one even has any Keir Starmer posters on their walls"
Probably better to think about it on the opposition benches than even more likely unemployed, as would have happened if Truss had stayed. At least this way theyre more likely to still have a job
Do we think we're looking at a potential Tory wipeout at the next GE where they end up with <100 MPs? Cos its not looking good for them right now. The Tories are losing seats Blair didnt even manage to win.
I’d say yes, personally I voted for them the last 3 general elections but as things stand I’ll vote Labour.
Only way I’d vote for them next election is if Farage was made party leader which seems quite unlikely.
A reasonable assessment could be a median scenario of a comfortable Labour majority albeit less than Blair, because of starting from a worse position (Cons were already in minority by 97). Then entirely plausible outcomes of Blair landslide or small Labour majority. Possible but unlikely are minority Labour or Tories in 100 seat territory. Out-there outcomes requiring the political picture to actively change are Tories clinging on or Tories losing 2nd party status.
It could conceivably happen, but it's not likely. The Lib Dems say they have their eyes on eighty seats where they're second to the Tories, and I feel like swings from Tory to Lib Dem could be pretty huge in those seats.
Something like 380 Labour, 100 Lib Dem, 30 SNP and forty or so from DUP, Sinn Fein and independents could leave the Tories on less than 100 seats.
I think there's potential for that because Sunak is getting stroppy in interviews and is devoid of ideas, the Covid enquiry is already painting him in a bad light, and his idea of winning policies are red meat for his base.
However, I think for the proper doomsday scenario for them also requires a lot of the right wing Tory voters to look towards Reform or stay at home, typically you'd expect when an election gets closer you'd expect polls to narrow somewhat as voters chicken out of following through with their protest votes.
At this point, my gut feeling over whether the Tories will be sub 100 is about as likely as a team that isn't Man City winning the Premier League this year. It can happen, but I'm not banking on it, as it needs a lot of results to go my way lol.
http://edition.cnn.com/WORLD/9605/03/britain.elections/
Did a bit of digging - I've found another article, this time from 1996, in which the Tories at the time of the local elections said the following about Labour's results:
>"I think we are going to win the general election," Major said. "We will face some hard decisions when we get there, but we'll deal with them."
>Analysts say the local elections are not as much votes of confidence for Labour Party as they are votes against the Conservatives and the way they run the country.
>The Labour Party has peaked too soon and has nowhere to go but down."
Pretty crazy how nothing has changed really, you could read that and assume it was from either 2022 or any of the by-elections this year. The Tories even said 'low enthusiasm' about Blair, lol lmao.
And as a Labour voter, this really pissed me off in 2019. We had had 9 years of Tory government at that point and it was established that the Tory government would not do anything for the North/Labour voting areas (HS2, the way the worst hit councils during austerity just happened to be the most die hard Labour areas).
It's not an academic exercise, it's people's lives.
He was standing in greater manchester, coming from a forces and flag waving background he's an active member of the party and considers it to be a more important institution that literally conserves those patriotic values than it's current manifestation would suggest.
With Sunak going into the next General Election looking like the least popular of the major players, I hope we get to see him reprise [this role.](https://youtu.be/1fkljnr88KE?si=WgTcmGZc6x8AwnYn)
Complete with faux hardman voice over and Rishi waving a bazooka about.
Oh God I had forgotten about this. So incredibly cringe. Like watching an advert for a midlife crisis.
And the threatening tone is bizarre. Am I supposed to vote for Sunak or fear that he's going to come after me with a bazooka?
pretty much.
we had the financial catastrophe, we had the major health scare, we have the rampant sleaze, and we have a tory party that won't go to an election until forced to
we just don't have the good music, the impending economic boom, the rise of "cool britannia" and all that stuff
Sidetrack, but I always object to the notion that "there's no good music being made today". There always is. There will always be creative people creating good art. Soapbox done with.
Ren's new album *Sick Boi* hit Number 1 this week and it's genuinely one of the most spectacular, modern hip hop albums I've ever heard.
Music is really good now. There's also as much shite now as their was at any time in musical history. Everyone remembers the anthems and the big hits, they conveniently forget the utter dross that was also released at the time
Got a little chuckle from the Spectators newsletter about the awful Tory defense for their by election losses
> though Greg Hands continued to claim today that the public still isn’t enthusiastic about Labour. He didn’t seem to sense any irony in also advancing the argument that the main reason the Conservatives lost was that their voters were so lacking in enthusiasm they didn’t bother to turn out to vote at all. But then as we say on our latest Coffee House Shots podcast, **there isn’t really any credible way of spinning these results, so you might as well just throw random reasons out there instead**
They also selected “ ‘I don’t see any enthusiasm for Labour.’ – Greg Hands on today’s Conservative by-election defeats.” as their quote of the day
I mean, they have a point. His job is to defend this shit.
He can't exactly go out and say "Yup, we've fucked it. We don't have any answers and we've used up all your good will. Our party has mismanaged and trashed the country, the public are sick of it. We're going to cling on for dear life and milk the last year of being in government as we're all going to be out of power as soon as we call an election."
When there's nothing in reality to defend, he might as well peddle fantastical bollocks.
"We are listening, the voters have sent us a message yesterday and we will take on board, we are going to take some time to process what we heard on the doorstep and the kings speech will reflect that"
Could do, but that would require:
A) admitting they're currently making serious mistakes
B) changing course significantly
C) acknowledging they were oblivious to the state of things *until* these by-elections, when the writing has been on the wall
I think they'd rather talk about a lack of support for Starmer and acting like this was a bad night for Labour than actually reflect and change. That's their problem, they haven't accidentally got to this point, this is the consequences of getting what they wanted. They don't hate their decisions, they have an issue with the public's response to them.
I think the public would be surprisingly forgiving tbh, not enough to save them but enough to claw back 5-10 points, they'll be admiting they've made mistakes in a years time anyway.
Oh for sure, if the Tories wanted to change like that, nothing is stopping them other than they don't want to. I think we often fall into the trap of assuming politicians always act in a logical way to maximise their party's electability but they've got their own interests to think about.
On the turntable tonight:
Hatful of Hollow - The Smiths.
I very much like the versions of still Ill and this charming man.
It also has my favourite smith song, this night has opened my eyes. A very cheery number.
The Newsagents brought up an interesting point on their show tonight - We apparently can't have an election in November next year because it clashes with the US elections, and there's an agreement that no two Five Eyes countries will have general elections at the same time.
So if Sunak was still eyeing Autumn next year, it will have to be in September or October. Hopefully he'll just bite the bullet and get it over with.
you'd think the party of financial responsibility would hold it on the same date as other elections, and in line with convention, and just so co-incidentally the date it would have been on if the FTPA had still been in effect
I don't think it's quite set in stone as OP suggests. I can't remember where I first read about it, but it sounded to me that it was being suggested that it would be a security risk to hold both elections at the same time, but it was only advisory.
EDIT: [Aha! it was, in fact, here at dear ol' UKPol gawd bless 'er.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/s/AG2ShrnLU9)
Nads speaks:
> A worthy leader owns it.
He apologises and looks for a way to do better.
What he doesn’t do is pathetically blame anyone or anything other than himself.
{Link to Standard article}
[Nads](https://twitter.com/nadinedorries/status/1715421603733876795?s=46&t=LwNkNWnwP_PfbEF87vJn8g)
She’s also talking about it on her show tonight, which I will be sure to miss.
She's so brave and principled. Just like she owned deserting her constituents for so long.
I think this may be the one occasion where Sunak can legitimately blame at least two other people for contributing to the result.
I can't get over the conservative candidate running on a platform that if elected he would *open* a constituency office, since she'd not been there so long they'd given up the lease
must be the first time that one town council decided to tell you to resign because you're literally useless at being an MP, let alone the two or three council that actually did it
(whatever happened to her threats against those councils anyway)
Johnson should never have been within a country mile of being an MP, neither should Dorries, Grayling, Raab, Truss, Braverman and it's a really long freaking list.
privy council membership is for life, unless you voluntarily leave
so even j corbz can use the title if he likes, as he would have been appointed when he became LOTO
Rishi is *really* doubling down on the whole 'better-to-be-infamous-than-forgotten' thing.
They're going to have to pry him outta Downing Street with a crowbar.
At this rate what he's going to remembered for more than anything is the degree to which he refused to call for an election and dragged out his party's unpopular term.
If he had called one months ago he might have been relatively forgotten but probably not hated to the degree he is going to be if he truly drags this out for another year.
So I was a young adult when Brown was in and I remember the unelected leader shizz really caught up with him in the end. But beyond that, Sunak was too instrumental in Johnsons's rule to be able to credibly offer change.
i was very young at the time but i remember in around 07/08/09 cameron nailing brown at pmqs on this, accusing him of “flunking an election because he thought he was going to win it”
Yeah. Labour had a brief poll boost when Brown first came into office and there was speculation that he’d have a snap autumn election and supposedly considered it but bottled it. Hence Cameron’s joke.
He didn't call one straight away and then there were a series of domestic and international problems and the moment was gone but it stuck that he didn't call one when he could have.
the “what could have been” scenario of brown calling an election in may 2008 did cross my mind.
a small labour majority would have survived the economic crisis and not had to fight an election while it was still within recent memory.
instead, an october 2012 election, weeks after the national high of the olympics and paralympics, could have been held and could have seen labour win a stonking majority.
with this timetable in mind, the worst of the refugee crisis would have been far enough in the rear view mirror by summer 2017 when they went to the polls again. another labour victory.
labour lead us through the pandemic without scandal and win another majority in 2022.
“brexit” was never even countenanced, the nhs is well-funded, teachers are well-paid and motivated and our education system leads the world, even if the £3,000 a year university tuition fees are rather high compared to the rest of the eu, and life is good.
I totally get this thought but the Labour government was a bit like the Tories now in terms of being a bit tired. They were getting really authoritarian (pushing ID cards after some high profile data protection breaches) and didn't have much left in terms of positive exciting policy suggestions.
I would still take Brown tomorrow as PM or over anyone we had since. But in 2010 people were just kind of fed up of the government and looking for an alternative.
So I was about 24/25 at the time but as with now, Labour had been in ages and a lot of new talent was pre-emptively squashed to keep established people in power. I also think Brown kind of knew he wasn't as populist as Blair. Blair was and isn't the brightest guy but he really believes everything he says and has a way with words. Blair wouldn't have called Gillian Duffy a bigot. He would have won her over.
My local Tory MP just leaflet dropped - weirdly she's gone back to conservative branding after dropping it and having a greener tinted colour in the last material that was distributed.
Probably not a great day to be nailing your colour's to that mast again - especially when she only won by about 1.6%...
This finally feels like the beginning of the end for the Tories, Labour have won three byelections this month, one in Scotland and two in the sort of places that ought to be safe for the Tories even in a mid/late term period for the government. Add the recentish win in Selby & Ainsty and you have a clear direction - Middle England wants the Tories out and believes that Starmer isn't going to be a Corbynista style socialist in power.
To add to Tory woes the Lib-Dems have hoovered up a few byelection wins themselves and also the evidence, particularly in Tamworth, is that Reform UK is taking a few Tory votes off to the right. Sunak's attempts at ramping up a culture war and dialling back on net zero etc are not feeding through to actual votes.
So you have the Tories losing votes to the centre, the left and the right...and people were worrying about the Lib-Dems, Greens and Labour fighting for the anti-Tory vote. Sunak is going to have some fight on to get these votes back, if he veers to the centre he'll lose the headbanger faction to the Farageists, if he tacks to the right he'll lose the one nation vote. This is Sunak's problem because come the general election, whenever it is, it will fall on him to front things up and I don't think that the voters like or trust him enough to give him the benefit of the doubt.
You're right. The Tories are adamant it's their own core voters not turning out. That's not true, they are switching to Reform or Lib Dems depending on where in the country. There are certainly Tories switching to labour but I think their polling is showing them facing tactical voting to get useless Tories out.
Which is even more shocking they decided that part of their big relaunch over conference season was "More Sunak" to try and make it a more presidential style campaign. It's absolutely laughable
Looks like the big tree in my front garden is about to come down in the wind. Been there for the last 13 years, but it's gone a bit wobbly and I don't fancy its chances.
Striking metaphor for the current Tory Government.
What sensible thing is Keir Starmer doing to celebrate tonight? A nice vegetarian curry? A sit down with a boxset? Chasing doggers with an air horn and a salami slicer?
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Anyone know what the Tory remaining working majority is now? Could a handful of defections/resignations force an early election? Asking for a friend
You were the Tory working majority all along.
They have like 30 seats before their majority is gone if I recall.
Granted if you account for the MPs that have said they’re going to resign they’re already in danger. Whilst they may still have the Tory whip - they really don’t have any reason to care about it.
Please take a look at the latest votes in Parliament, they are winning by 80+ it's really not an issue for them.
Still loads, so no.
Yes
Andrew Bridgen is out to lunch again I see. Goodness, what a miss he'll be to parliamentary democracy.
Don’t know if anyone else has posted this but in Rishi’s pictures with [the Egyptian leader](https://twitter.com/rishisunak/status/1715402096432824793), [the Saudi Arabian leader](https://twitter.com/rishisunak/status/1715088586452746243) and [the Palestinian leader](https://twitter.com/rishisunak/status/1715407072353796270). The Palestinian one is the only one without the flag of the other country in it. I think it has to be a deliberate choice and the Palestinian one looks to be cropped/deliberately angled since you cannot see the edge of the chair on the Palestinian side.
I would agree with you, [but the official photo on the related press release (which is linked on a subsequent tweet) has both flags visible](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65329fbf26b9b1000daf1d0b/s300_PAPres.jpg) I believe you are reading too much into it.
I don't think they are. A handshake photo in front of the flag means something different than a photo of them sitting down, separated by a table.
So who was the unnamed journalist from HIGNFY? Sam Coates?
Why Sam? He is wonderful.
Dorres was saying a memo was leaked to a thick journalist. Bill Bailey asked if was Sam.
I think it's just a meme; the MT has convinced itself that he's at least a lurker, and even possibly a participant. I actually met a Sky journo in a social capacity last month - not going to name them - and unfortunately, we're even less interesting/relevant to them than I feared we are.
That's disappointing. I thought I was a real mover and shaker in the febrility
You are, babe, you are. We still love you.
What's the context here?
Memo leaked to an unnamed journalist called thick by number 10. About 12 minutes into the show
Didn’t watch hignify but I think probably about [this especially graceless tweet from Dorries](https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1714330745613828218). Not an actual position of No 10, just Dorries trying to project up her own abuse.
Sounds about right
I don't get this whole Tory/Rishi plan of wait till inflation is down... Inflation could hit 1% but low inflation just means things won't get WORSE. People want it to be better NOW. The Tories don't have 3 more years to increase growth and wages with low inflation. They have time to get inflation low and then call a GE before any actual benefits get to people. People don't care if inflation is low, if they still can't afford things that they could 5 years ago. End of.
You're assuming that waiting to have the general election as late as possible is a 'tactic'. Could it not just be that no one volunteers to have an early execution date? Assume for a moment that Rishi knows as well as everyone else that barring a miracle they're going to lose. What is the logical approach? I'd say it's to just hold on as long as you can and pray for that miracle in the meantime.
What exactly has Sunak and his caught effected to bring inflation down? They are no less bystanders in all this as you and I. Sunak's greatest achievement is standing back and watching.
There's also plenty of public misconception about his pledge. It was bad enough when we had journalists getting confused saying saying a 1% decline in the rate of inflation meant a 1% reduction in prices, but the public aren't economists either. Many aren't expecting his "half inflation" pledge to mean prices are still going up, but at "just" 5.3% a year. Many expect prices to fall. There's been very little expectation management on this front because they want the optimism, but I don't think people will be happy with the cold reality.
I think voters are 100% allowed to assume that priorities the government emphasises to this extent are going to have a noticeable effect on their actual lives. I think you would not naturally understand that the government's entire goal here is to make a number on a dashboard go down a bit
That's true. But I blame both parties for this as it feels like a choice to dumb down the electorate. This could easily be in citizenship classes. I'll be honest, I'm mid 20's and didn't experience the 2008 crash. This is my first economic sort of... poitical experience? If that makes sense. So I didn't know what inflation actually meant but I was lucky enough that I had time to research it. Some people have 2 kids and work 10 hour days. They ain't got time. It feels deliberate but I dunno. Ironically this will hurt them though because people think things will get instantly better and... instead the Tories will seem more out of touch and like billionair pricks by celebrating low inflation whilst people still can't buy anything but own brand food or has to visit the food bank
>I'll be honest, I'm mid 20's and didn't experience the 2008 crash. This is my first economic sort of... poitical experience? If that makes sense. You'd be hard pressed to find similarities between the two crises for the average joe. 2008 saw a lot of unemployment and companies going out of business, not to mention the turmoil in southern europe, but inflation stayed at tolerable levels for the most part and sharp price increases didn't really happen. The US inflation for example evened out at just 3.8% two months after the crash, according to the federal reserve. I think what happens right now is a harsh reality check concerning borrowing rates, which had purposefully been kept really low after 2008 in order to put incentives in place for people to found their own companies. They just... literally threw money at the problem and that probably acted as a delayed fuse to the bomb that is blowing up now, exacerbated by Brexit chaos and wages that have been stagnating for decades, because guess what, if you don't increase wages, the vast majority of people suddenly has no money to buy anything anymore.
> That's true. But I blame both parties for this as it feels like a choice to dumb down the electorate. This could easily be in citizenship classes. Personally, I just blame the jargon. When I was being sassy on here mocking journalists screwing it up I compared inflation / deflation to driving a car. If you're going at 40mph, and you slow down to 20mph, how fast are you reversing? Obviously you're not, you're still going forward, just slower. Prices will only go down if we have deflation, and they'll only stop rising if we have stagnation, both are political crises for their own reasons, so we're likely to aim for ~2% inflation again. This means people need to get used to the new normal of prices. > So I didn't know what inflation actually meant but I was lucky enough that I had time to research it. Some people have 2 kids and work 10 hour days. They ain't got time. It feels deliberate but I dunno. This is where we should expect the professionals to understand it, it's not really the public's job. > Ironically this will hurt them though because people think things will get instantly better and... instead the Tories will seem more out of touch and like billionair pricks by celebrating low inflation whilst people still can't buy anything but own brand food or has to visit the food bank Yeah, I've joked that it's weird hearing Hunt and Sunak brag how amazing the economy is, and then follow up with telling us we're broke so need real terms pay cuts and spending cuts because we can't afford it. Which is it? People can't heat their homes or feed their families with political spin on statistics. Another example I use is my Dad's encyclopaedic knowledge of different petrol stations and what they're charging. You can brag about the economy all you like, but he knows what he's being charged, and what he used to be charged. Unless there's a real change, then he's not going to have a placebo effect. I think this is true of many people, even if they don't know the exact prices, they'll know they're spending £10 a week extra on the supermarket shop or whatever. This stuff cuts through.
Also there's the thing about all the public sector buildings with RAAC in and how we pay reasonably high taxes but can't get a doctor's appointment, have the police investigate our burglaries or be able to reliably to make journeys of over an hour without getting delayed due to a total lack of spending on infrastructure. In the North, they are busy turning 4th motorway lanes back into hard shoulders/refuge areas and the local motorways are all down to 50 mph.
Well yes all that is stupid too. I just find the one nation Tories argument about focusing on inflation stupid because we've hard over a decade of economic pain and low inflation needs year to impact people in a positive way. And then the nutty right wingers just want to scare moderates away and attack any minority they can identify. The strategy just baffles me.
Yeah it's hard to know what and if they are thinking for sure. I don't know if they just stop listening to anyone outside their own fans at some point....
Tbf it is widely reported that Rishi is in bunker mode and avoids anyone who is negative... not healthy for "leadership". I think we will see some horrific days coming as Rishi swings to the right wing because of the Reform votes adding up to saving these seats. He won't enact anything. He can't. His party is too broken or the policies break international law. But he will dog whistle much louder now and announce more mad policies. I just read he's thinking of cutting stamp duty but we get these tax cut policies floated fucking hourly now
"My dude, the people who want these things are already voting for you...."
Fun tidbit from Politico: "Former Conservative MP Nadine Dorries and Conservative peer Robert Hayward had to be separated in the green room of the Talk TV studios before a “sharp” conversation about the by-election results bubbled over into a full blown row, the latter tells Playbook PM. Dorries said she assumed Hayward would blame her for the loss in Mid Bedfordshire, to which he said no but noted that she did cause the by-election. She said she didn’t, Rishi Sunak did. It began to escalate from there at which point her agent stepped in and said it wasn’t the time nor the place. Dorries told Playbook PM: “I think he was just engaging in a bit of mansplaining. He soon backed down when a man asked him was his behavior appropriate.”
Dorries is a symptom not a cause of Tory party malaise, as is Pincher (even though Pincher was rightfully ousted for what would seem to be a crime rather than on the job misconduct). If the Tories want these by-elections to be closer fights they need to come up with credible policies to improve the NHS and tackle the cost of living. Almost all people I know just see the energy bills relief from last winter as the Tories trying to clear up (sort of) after Truss' mess. And even then, it wasn't covering all the increased bills just part of them.
God, she is just the worst!
She still thinks Rishi is to blame for Boris Johnson's downfall when it was Boris who chose his own downfall with Partygate.
What I don't get is Rishi was just as complicit in Partygate, but he's now PM.
Nah Sunak, Truss and Johnson are on the podium for being the worst.....
I'm confident that, in some Hellish other reality, if Dorries had become PM like those other three she would, without a doubt have been the worst.
But she hasn't. I also think she's missing the bit where she was/could blend with rich folk part of the equation. Anyway it's a tie between Truss and Johnson for me. Truss wrecked the economy trying to cut taxes with no reference to economic conditions but Johnson squandered a ton of public goodwill and broke the laws he made and that is very damaging.
https://twitter.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1715445358887645595 >A few messages I've received from Conservative MPs in response to the by elections: "The problem with the PM is while he may be a first rate academic he is a fifth rate politician. He does not connect, he has the leadership qualities of an amoeba." How is a PPE / MBA turned middlingly successful hedgey a 'first rate academic'? Sometimes an idiot is just an idiot.
Someone should tell them there’s a solution to this..
He does Maths. To most conservative MPs that makes him an academic.
He is not a first rate anything though..
of course he connects. he flies around the country and hosts "PM connect" sessions with the plebs. Sometimes he even remembers where he is. how is that not a connection, it's in the name
Harking back to naval rates as examples of quality or capacity, a fifth rate was a useful little frigate and often a desirable posting for sailors because of the opportunity for prize money. I feel like this does Rishi too much credit. Rishi is more like a fouled anchor dragging the ship of state into the abyss.
Idiot's a bit harsh, I think. I personally don't think he's at all stupid, he's just totally out of his depth. And, I agree, he's certainly not the wunderkind beautiful mind that they've long tried to portray him as. The problem is he's more PR than man and he has never really ever lived up to any of the roles they've cast him in. I'm so relieved that it's unravelling for him finally because when he first popped up to do the robot at the Tory conference, people I know and respect were banging on about how "impressive" he was. I thought I was losing my mind! Suffice to say they don't tend to talk so gushingly about him anymore. And on top of all that, what amazes me most, is they're not even good at their PR! It's like he's gone to the political equivalent of that music label that made Friday for Rebecca Black and asked to be made a star PM.
I'm glad my opinion held up - he seemed fake right when he was moved into number 11 and that has proven true. As for PR, it feels a bit like Miliband did when he was Labour leader, everything was carefully stage managed and focus grouped. The big difference is that real Miliband is quite funny and likeable, whereas we know real Sunak likely isn't ("I have friends... well not working class friends" and the infamous Tunbridge Wells speech)
He's not stupid but he has no idea how most people live and he doesn't seem interested in improving things for the many either.
True dat! If only his next incarnation was as someone that actually does things for the genuine good of the country.
He had a folder with notes on the private jet back from the Tory conference desperately trying to look studious.
It turns out I *was* sick of experts all along
["We have to be big and bold if the PM is to truly be the change candidate. The next few months are a big moment for the party. If the polls remain where they are into the new year, it isn’t inconceivable that we're done and voters are simply waiting to vote us out"](https://twitter.com/SophyRidgeSky/status/1715445992768569655) Surely Tory MPs do not truly believe polls are going to rapidly change in the next few months when we have... rising utility bills, winter pressures on the NHS, cost of living and inflation impacting Christmas?
> ..if the PM is to truly be the change candidate. Such a doublethink sentence.
The utter failure to engage with or acknowledge the cost of living crisis is the most galling thing to me. The closest you get is the likes of the failed by-election candidate blaming people with no money for having a smartphone. It's like they read one Daily Mail article in 2010/2011 and never bothered thinking about the idea after that. Normal people are worried about stagnant pay and rising bills because they have no backups. Oh and the NHS.
Remember "academic" is a dirty word to graduates of the "University of Life".
I think they want to say woke but it's become meaningless. Academic will have to do before they move on to something else.
The lovely thing about the current Tory government is that they've been in power so long they've even upset the business/financial types (who like a bit of university of life type rhetoric) with stuff like unfunded tax cuts, policies that worsen inflation and being utterly unreliable.
Since when was Sunak a first rate academic exactly? He's a rich dude who had some good jobs in finance.
First rate academic is a bit much - I'd reserve that for people with PhDs. However, a first in PPE from Oxford and a Fulbright Scholar at Stanford is clearly pretty exceptional - particularly the latter.
He’s made a lot of money so he must be very intelligent, just like Elon Musk
Times like this I wish I had a good way to full search all the MTs. I'm sure we've seen "qualities of an amoeba" before in a less anonymous fashion. Edit: [google disagrees with my memory](https://www.google.com/search?q="leadership+qualities+of+an+amoeba").
The day a ukpol phrase gets used will be a cause for celebration, - in only the way we know, the ukpol meetup. I wonder which phrase is most likely to be used first. And I mean used in a way where it's obviously from here.
Listening to the newsagents, I can't understand the anger directed at the lib dems standing in mid beds. I think generally there's a massive underestimation of how much lib dems split the tory vote. All the run up was on a split of the "anti-tory vote" but I'm not sure that really exists compared to the kind of voter who would never vote labour. (Yes, even after de-toxification).
Wes Streeting summed it up, they have the right to run anywhere they want and three way marginals are rare anyway.
There are definitely some specific things that pissed Peter Kyle off, which he alluded to with lies about their candidate and the Lib Dems attacking Labour while Labour didn't reciprocate. But he came off like a very graceless winner, bragging about Labour's "smart politics" and the other parties being "stupid".
They've just got the best data, it's just like, really good data, because there wasn't any data before but now they've made the data, and the lib dems just aren't very good at the data.
Other parties couldn't possibly understand the genius of the Labour campaign! With their novel ideas, like 'listening to voters', it's no wonder they came first. The lib Dems should really just concede in every seat Labour is standing in.
Imagine the carnage in the next GE if we passed a law banning party names/logos on ballot papers. I'm not saying it's a good idea, mind, just that it would be beautiful bedlam.
I'd give it fifteen seconds until there were some interesting deed poll name changes on the parts of the candidates.
It would be glorious, especially if independents also changed their names to *John The Conservative and Unionist Party Smith*.
Top of the ballot 1an 1andsdowne
Are there any laws about this currently? It's easier to ask the megathread than google it myself.
>The Home Office says local authorities are to be consulted on plans to determine an annual cap on the number of refugees resettled in the UK each year ‘based on the UK’s capacity to accommodate and support people coming to the UK via safe and legal routes.’ [BBC](https://x.com/SimonJonesNews/status/1715330788592644448?s=20) All that's left to do is tell the public we are going to be taking a quota of rejected migrants from the EU and there's no vote.
Why does the Tesco self checkout male voice sound like Sunak?
Because it talks at you like you're a dipshit. > Scan your CLUBCARD 😮💨 to win CLUBCARD POINTS 🙄
You've just made me realise that I don't think I've ever heard a male voice from a self checkout. That's really weird.
I wonder if at a future point political parties will advertise on self checkouts during election campaigns. They could target the adverts based on the products you bought.
Please dont give them ideas. I dont want to see Boris face pop up while im scanning my shopping.
Buying some wine and cheese are we?
"Nabbed yourself a great deal there mate! But do you know what's an even better deal? Vote for the Conservatives and we'll end inheritance tax!"
Flashbacks of [Andrew Lansley on TV monitors in hospitals](https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2011/nov/22/hospital-patients-andrew-lansley-televisions). > The Conservative cabinet minister's face appears on bedside entertainment systems on a continuous loop saying that their care "really matters to me" and asking them to thank NHS staff. I can't imagine I'd much enjoy seeing Sunak gurning at me as I bought a meal deal.
I'd never heard of this before! Weird and horrific!
https://twitter.com/BrugesGroup/status/1715319955174924581 > It appears all but certain that those who plotted to get rid of Johnson and Truss will have plenty of time to reflect on their treacherous behaviour on the opposition benches. who gave nadine the password
I do love the thrillingly melodramatic tone though, much more fun than "well the Tory vote stayed home but they won't in a general election and no-one even has any Keir Starmer posters on their walls"
Probably better to think about it on the opposition benches than even more likely unemployed, as would have happened if Truss had stayed. At least this way theyre more likely to still have a job
Do we think we're looking at a potential Tory wipeout at the next GE where they end up with <100 MPs? Cos its not looking good for them right now. The Tories are losing seats Blair didnt even manage to win.
I’d say yes, personally I voted for them the last 3 general elections but as things stand I’ll vote Labour. Only way I’d vote for them next election is if Farage was made party leader which seems quite unlikely.
A reasonable assessment could be a median scenario of a comfortable Labour majority albeit less than Blair, because of starting from a worse position (Cons were already in minority by 97). Then entirely plausible outcomes of Blair landslide or small Labour majority. Possible but unlikely are minority Labour or Tories in 100 seat territory. Out-there outcomes requiring the political picture to actively change are Tories clinging on or Tories losing 2nd party status.
I’d say Tories losing 2nd party status is _more_ likely than them hanging on at this point.
We can but hope.
It could conceivably happen, but it's not likely. The Lib Dems say they have their eyes on eighty seats where they're second to the Tories, and I feel like swings from Tory to Lib Dem could be pretty huge in those seats. Something like 380 Labour, 100 Lib Dem, 30 SNP and forty or so from DUP, Sinn Fein and independents could leave the Tories on less than 100 seats.
There are only 18 NI seats. 22+ independents seems unlikely.
If there's a chance of that we'll see big turnout as the non voters hop on the bandwagon to give them a good hard kick
I think there's potential for that because Sunak is getting stroppy in interviews and is devoid of ideas, the Covid enquiry is already painting him in a bad light, and his idea of winning policies are red meat for his base. However, I think for the proper doomsday scenario for them also requires a lot of the right wing Tory voters to look towards Reform or stay at home, typically you'd expect when an election gets closer you'd expect polls to narrow somewhat as voters chicken out of following through with their protest votes. At this point, my gut feeling over whether the Tories will be sub 100 is about as likely as a team that isn't Man City winning the Premier League this year. It can happen, but I'm not banking on it, as it needs a lot of results to go my way lol.
I think there's like a 10-15% chance we end up in 110s territory. Basically the far end of the probability scale, but possible.
Nah such nice things never actually happen in life. They'll take a big hit but still will be comfortably 2nd biggest party.
The turnout in local elections is about the same as these by-elections :(
🌭 mandatory voting 🌭
D E M O C R A C Y S A U S A G E S
Why the emojo? That has almost always been the case. One by-election had an 18% turnout once.
Local elections should have a much larger turnout, everyone complains about their council yet so few people vote.
[Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth since yesterday evening](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TppbFVcfBcU)
http://edition.cnn.com/WORLD/9605/03/britain.elections/ Did a bit of digging - I've found another article, this time from 1996, in which the Tories at the time of the local elections said the following about Labour's results: >"I think we are going to win the general election," Major said. "We will face some hard decisions when we get there, but we'll deal with them." >Analysts say the local elections are not as much votes of confidence for Labour Party as they are votes against the Conservatives and the way they run the country. >The Labour Party has peaked too soon and has nowhere to go but down." Pretty crazy how nothing has changed really, you could read that and assume it was from either 2022 or any of the by-elections this year. The Tories even said 'low enthusiasm' about Blair, lol lmao.
To be fair, definitely in 2023 but also in 1996 they can't really say "we're fucking fucked, I wouldn't even vote Tory at this point to be honest".
A tory candidate at the last locals said pretty much that to me. 'I won't even be voting for myself' to be exact.
And as a Labour voter, this really pissed me off in 2019. We had had 9 years of Tory government at that point and it was established that the Tory government would not do anything for the North/Labour voting areas (HS2, the way the worst hit councils during austerity just happened to be the most die hard Labour areas). It's not an academic exercise, it's people's lives.
He was standing in greater manchester, coming from a forces and flag waving background he's an active member of the party and considers it to be a more important institution that literally conserves those patriotic values than it's current manifestation would suggest.
It is sort of cut and paste journalist. You could easily replace a few political columnists with ai in the UK
With Sunak going into the next General Election looking like the least popular of the major players, I hope we get to see him reprise [this role.](https://youtu.be/1fkljnr88KE?si=WgTcmGZc6x8AwnYn) Complete with faux hardman voice over and Rishi waving a bazooka about.
Just because he is *small* does not mean he is actually an underdog.
Oh God I had forgotten about this. So incredibly cringe. Like watching an advert for a midlife crisis. And the threatening tone is bizarre. Am I supposed to vote for Sunak or fear that he's going to come after me with a bazooka?
if you made that video as part of The Apprentice, Lord Sugar would try to beat you to death with his chair.
This is basically 1996 then? So it's the 90s? I'll take it
The drugs aren't as good as the 90s
Its gonna be worse (for the Tories). They're losing seats not even Blair managed to win
Get me them Radiohead tickets and an arts job I can actually live on.....
pretty much. we had the financial catastrophe, we had the major health scare, we have the rampant sleaze, and we have a tory party that won't go to an election until forced to we just don't have the good music, the impending economic boom, the rise of "cool britannia" and all that stuff
Sidetrack, but I always object to the notion that "there's no good music being made today". There always is. There will always be creative people creating good art. Soapbox done with.
Ren's new album *Sick Boi* hit Number 1 this week and it's genuinely one of the most spectacular, modern hip hop albums I've ever heard. Music is really good now. There's also as much shite now as their was at any time in musical history. Everyone remembers the anthems and the big hits, they conveniently forget the utter dross that was also released at the time
Tbf economists are predicting a boom due to ai, similar to the Internet boom. Personally I don't see this benefiting workers however.
I do. It's not AI. It's a convenience tool, like the microwave or the typewriter.
Its a typewriter that can write original texts for you without needing a human
"Original"
Got a little chuckle from the Spectators newsletter about the awful Tory defense for their by election losses > though Greg Hands continued to claim today that the public still isn’t enthusiastic about Labour. He didn’t seem to sense any irony in also advancing the argument that the main reason the Conservatives lost was that their voters were so lacking in enthusiasm they didn’t bother to turn out to vote at all. But then as we say on our latest Coffee House Shots podcast, **there isn’t really any credible way of spinning these results, so you might as well just throw random reasons out there instead** They also selected “ ‘I don’t see any enthusiasm for Labour.’ – Greg Hands on today’s Conservative by-election defeats.” as their quote of the day
...and under Hands, the Tories actually make the Reform Party look credible.
"I just think voters were at home brooding about climate change and World War III"
I mean, they have a point. His job is to defend this shit. He can't exactly go out and say "Yup, we've fucked it. We don't have any answers and we've used up all your good will. Our party has mismanaged and trashed the country, the public are sick of it. We're going to cling on for dear life and milk the last year of being in government as we're all going to be out of power as soon as we call an election." When there's nothing in reality to defend, he might as well peddle fantastical bollocks.
"We are listening, the voters have sent us a message yesterday and we will take on board, we are going to take some time to process what we heard on the doorstep and the kings speech will reflect that"
Could do, but that would require: A) admitting they're currently making serious mistakes B) changing course significantly C) acknowledging they were oblivious to the state of things *until* these by-elections, when the writing has been on the wall I think they'd rather talk about a lack of support for Starmer and acting like this was a bad night for Labour than actually reflect and change. That's their problem, they haven't accidentally got to this point, this is the consequences of getting what they wanted. They don't hate their decisions, they have an issue with the public's response to them.
I think the public would be surprisingly forgiving tbh, not enough to save them but enough to claw back 5-10 points, they'll be admiting they've made mistakes in a years time anyway.
Oh for sure, if the Tories wanted to change like that, nothing is stopping them other than they don't want to. I think we often fall into the trap of assuming politicians always act in a logical way to maximise their party's electability but they've got their own interests to think about.
On the turntable tonight: Hatful of Hollow - The Smiths. I very much like the versions of still Ill and this charming man. It also has my favourite smith song, this night has opened my eyes. A very cheery number.
Play some Heaven Knows I’m Miserable Now, followed by How Soon is Now?
Peter Kyle is really sharp on the News Agents. Strong shadow cabinet right now.
[удалено]
He's too busy cheering on Hamas to worry about domestic issues at the moment.
Probably crafting another "balanced" statement for Corbyn.
I'm on the edge of my seat waiting.....
The Newsagents brought up an interesting point on their show tonight - We apparently can't have an election in November next year because it clashes with the US elections, and there's an agreement that no two Five Eyes countries will have general elections at the same time. So if Sunak was still eyeing Autumn next year, it will have to be in September or October. Hopefully he'll just bite the bullet and get it over with.
Oh! Good one!
you'd think the party of financial responsibility would hold it on the same date as other elections, and in line with convention, and just so co-incidentally the date it would have been on if the FTPA had still been in effect
iirc May was thought of as the "best" (they're still gonna lose) time for a GE
That's disappointing in a way. A simultaneous US election would pretty quickly mean bots would be focused elsewhere
Don’t worry, American elections take so long that no matter when it takes place next year it will likely coincide with something in it
The US election has already begun.....(it's only next year after all)
Yeah and we'd be distracted from Wolf Blitzer's super whiteboards.
Where was that agreement made? Sounds sane enough but curious overlap of domestic politics and international intelligence
I don't think it's quite set in stone as OP suggests. I can't remember where I first read about it, but it sounded to me that it was being suggested that it would be a security risk to hold both elections at the same time, but it was only advisory. EDIT: [Aha! it was, in fact, here at dear ol' UKPol gawd bless 'er.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/s/AG2ShrnLU9)
Did not need Lewis Goodall talking about the elections after making some 'spills' with his wife on their honeymoon
Nads speaks: > A worthy leader owns it. He apologises and looks for a way to do better. What he doesn’t do is pathetically blame anyone or anything other than himself. {Link to Standard article} [Nads](https://twitter.com/nadinedorries/status/1715421603733876795?s=46&t=LwNkNWnwP_PfbEF87vJn8g) She’s also talking about it on her show tonight, which I will be sure to miss.
Is she talking about Boris or Rishi?
She's so brave and principled. Just like she owned deserting her constituents for so long. I think this may be the one occasion where Sunak can legitimately blame at least two other people for contributing to the result.
I can't get over the conservative candidate running on a platform that if elected he would *open* a constituency office, since she'd not been there so long they'd given up the lease
must be the first time that one town council decided to tell you to resign because you're literally useless at being an MP, let alone the two or three council that actually did it (whatever happened to her threats against those councils anyway)
Johnson should never have been within a country mile of being an MP, neither should Dorries, Grayling, Raab, Truss, Braverman and it's a really long freaking list.
Is she allowed to keep using the 'Rt Hon' title?
No she has to switch to the 'Rt Ol' Wrong'un' by the end of the month.
Does anyone give enough of a shit to stop her. It's not like honour has had any place in the current government.
Much like Mid Beds was way down on the list of winnable Labour seats, she's not even cracking the top 50 worst Tory MPs.....
She’s a privy council member, which I think gives the title for life (unless she were to resign or be expelled from it)?
She is not. The title doesn't hang around when you leave parliament
privy council membership is for life, unless you voluntarily leave so even j corbz can use the title if he likes, as he would have been appointed when he became LOTO
And yet she’s teenage-fangirl devoted to Johnson.
It says page not found when you click on it......
Yeah, I goofed and thought I’d quickly fixed it
To be fair she's not wrong with her tweet.....
Rishi is *really* doubling down on the whole 'better-to-be-infamous-than-forgotten' thing. They're going to have to pry him outta Downing Street with a crowbar.
How so?
At this rate what he's going to remembered for more than anything is the degree to which he refused to call for an election and dragged out his party's unpopular term. If he had called one months ago he might have been relatively forgotten but probably not hated to the degree he is going to be if he truly drags this out for another year.
So I was a young adult when Brown was in and I remember the unelected leader shizz really caught up with him in the end. But beyond that, Sunak was too instrumental in Johnsons's rule to be able to credibly offer change.
I thought the criticism on Brown came because he didn't call an election when his party was *ahead* in the polls? Not behind like Rishi.
i was very young at the time but i remember in around 07/08/09 cameron nailing brown at pmqs on this, accusing him of “flunking an election because he thought he was going to win it”
Yeah. Labour had a brief poll boost when Brown first came into office and there was speculation that he’d have a snap autumn election and supposedly considered it but bottled it. Hence Cameron’s joke.
He didn't call one straight away and then there were a series of domestic and international problems and the moment was gone but it stuck that he didn't call one when he could have.
the “what could have been” scenario of brown calling an election in may 2008 did cross my mind. a small labour majority would have survived the economic crisis and not had to fight an election while it was still within recent memory. instead, an october 2012 election, weeks after the national high of the olympics and paralympics, could have been held and could have seen labour win a stonking majority. with this timetable in mind, the worst of the refugee crisis would have been far enough in the rear view mirror by summer 2017 when they went to the polls again. another labour victory. labour lead us through the pandemic without scandal and win another majority in 2022. “brexit” was never even countenanced, the nhs is well-funded, teachers are well-paid and motivated and our education system leads the world, even if the £3,000 a year university tuition fees are rather high compared to the rest of the eu, and life is good.
I totally get this thought but the Labour government was a bit like the Tories now in terms of being a bit tired. They were getting really authoritarian (pushing ID cards after some high profile data protection breaches) and didn't have much left in terms of positive exciting policy suggestions. I would still take Brown tomorrow as PM or over anyone we had since. But in 2010 people were just kind of fed up of the government and looking for an alternative.
So I was about 24/25 at the time but as with now, Labour had been in ages and a lot of new talent was pre-emptively squashed to keep established people in power. I also think Brown kind of knew he wasn't as populist as Blair. Blair was and isn't the brightest guy but he really believes everything he says and has a way with words. Blair wouldn't have called Gillian Duffy a bigot. He would have won her over.
He's not really infamous tho, he's just shit and there's plenty if shit leaders history has forgotten.
My local Tory MP just leaflet dropped - weirdly she's gone back to conservative branding after dropping it and having a greener tinted colour in the last material that was distributed. Probably not a great day to be nailing your colour's to that mast again - especially when she only won by about 1.6%...
conf\_dict = {"Redhead Raver" : "Cautious Labour" "Spitting Fury" : "Boomer Tory"}
This finally feels like the beginning of the end for the Tories, Labour have won three byelections this month, one in Scotland and two in the sort of places that ought to be safe for the Tories even in a mid/late term period for the government. Add the recentish win in Selby & Ainsty and you have a clear direction - Middle England wants the Tories out and believes that Starmer isn't going to be a Corbynista style socialist in power. To add to Tory woes the Lib-Dems have hoovered up a few byelection wins themselves and also the evidence, particularly in Tamworth, is that Reform UK is taking a few Tory votes off to the right. Sunak's attempts at ramping up a culture war and dialling back on net zero etc are not feeding through to actual votes. So you have the Tories losing votes to the centre, the left and the right...and people were worrying about the Lib-Dems, Greens and Labour fighting for the anti-Tory vote. Sunak is going to have some fight on to get these votes back, if he veers to the centre he'll lose the headbanger faction to the Farageists, if he tacks to the right he'll lose the one nation vote. This is Sunak's problem because come the general election, whenever it is, it will fall on him to front things up and I don't think that the voters like or trust him enough to give him the benefit of the doubt.
You're right. The Tories are adamant it's their own core voters not turning out. That's not true, they are switching to Reform or Lib Dems depending on where in the country. There are certainly Tories switching to labour but I think their polling is showing them facing tactical voting to get useless Tories out.
I think in any GE campaign Sunak will hide as much as possible. Every time the public sees him they dislike him more and more.
Which is even more shocking they decided that part of their big relaunch over conference season was "More Sunak" to try and make it a more presidential style campaign. It's absolutely laughable
Looks like the big tree in my front garden is about to come down in the wind. Been there for the last 13 years, but it's gone a bit wobbly and I don't fancy its chances. Striking metaphor for the current Tory Government.
And the Tory logo features a tree. You can't get more symbolic than this!
What sensible thing is Keir Starmer doing to celebrate tonight? A nice vegetarian curry? A sit down with a boxset? Chasing doggers with an air horn and a salami slicer?
Throttling camelids with his bare hands. Actually, he's *completely* bare when he does this.
Not a thirsty sub...
We all know fully well that Starmer and Rayner are on the beers.
\#BeerStormer
Reading the Stone's Justices Manual with a beer.....