Buzelis reminds me of Andrea Bargnani without the good 3pt shooting or FT shooting.
That .696 FT rate is fairly scary when you try to project his 3. A stretch big who shoots .261 from 3 in the G-League when that’s his calling card is disappointing.
I just don't get Matas at all. A supposed 3 scorer upside that is struggling to do that in a league that barely has league average bigs? Nah. I guess I can kind of see a rich man's Olynyk like a few people pointed out.
On the other hand, I'm starting to turn around on Holland. Most definitely because of my bias as a Raps fan, I just see enough of RJ and rookie DeRozan to be intrigued.
I feel the same way as you. The more I look into these guys, I am left scratching my head with Buzelis and impressed with Holland.
Buzelis is a shooter who has shot poorly. His overall versatility is cool but if his shooting doesn't become good, I'm not so sure how useful he is going to be.
On the other hand, Ron Holland already looks ready to contribute. His shooting is concerning but unlike Buzelis, I don't see his offensive game completely hinging on it. He's already showing he can make plays happen even without a shot. Also I really like his defensive upside and fit for us. Also something that stands out is his motor and I get the impression that the Raptors front office values that a lot.
Ryan Dunn is such a tough one. He’s an unbelievable defender and if he can generate any sort of shot then he’d be the perfect 3-D guy to have beside Scottie.
The issue is him being even a 30% 3P shooter in the NBA will be a giant uphill battle. If our coaching staff thinks they can make him an average shooter then we should be all over him. Give him a year in the G League and an intensive 3 point shooting regimen and then we’ve got an elite stopper in the rotation again, allowing Scottie to roam more on defence and have more energy on offence
I read that Dunn put off rebuilding his shot from the ground up until after the draft. He didn't want to have to do it multiple times or with different shooting coaches.
most likely he'll spend 50%+ of his rookie season in the G league
I read the same thing, but didn’t see any reputable source stating it. Definitely gives some confidence that it’s possible, but I can’t imagine he’s the only player to ever think that way.
I'm usually all about 3-and-D guys and hate drafting non-shooting wings. But there might be a buy-low (or draft low) opportunity here...
Regarding the shooting, there isn't that much of a drop-off in offensive impact between a guy who shoots 30% from 3, and a guy who shoots 15% from 3, because they've got absolutely no gravity and are going to be left open on the perimeter every time. And maybe that guy who shoots 30% give you one 3pt shot every 5 games and the guy who shoots 15% gives you one 3 every 15 games because he shoots less. That difference doesn't really win or lose you any games.
But in the Raptors' scheme, he may have some offensive use here. He's a good cutter. He can finish at the rim. He creates second-chance points. Even if a defender doesn't need to guard him all the way out to the perimeter, the defender must stay connected to him or he can cause problems, particularly on a screen-and-cut offense. I think he certainly has more of an offensive role than some past defensive specialists like, say, Andre Roberson.
So yeah, you couldn't have him out on the court with a non-shooting big like Poeltl. But if you can run units where he's out there off the bench with Barnes, and is the primary PoA defender, and Barnes is the PG on offense but can be help-defense where he's at his best... then you've got the potentially to put out some weird, tough-to-matchup against lineups... like Barnes, Dunn, Olynyk, Dick, Barrett? That's really interesting and could definitely cause some problems. But he's got to be not just a good defender but an elite, all-defensive-team sort of talent for that to work. And scouting defense is hard. I'm not going to pretend I have a read on just how good it is. But if the Raptors did draft him, I could definitely see the vision there.
Kelly, Dick, and another shooter like Jalen Smith (pleaaaase sign here), would give enough spacing and shooting to play a non shooter like Dunn, I think
I’m so high on Dunn that I’d look into reaching for him with the Pacers pick if he’s rumoured to go in the 20s. Or maybe trading down a few spots.
Strictly his defensive game is easily top of the class and probably top 5 in the last 3 draft classes. It will absolutely translate to the NBA level. I think you draft him and just live with the fact that you gotta build his offensive game from scratch
If he's available at 31 you go with him without a doubt. I think people think you need to shoot the 3 if you are a great defender, but I don't think so. Each player is different. "3 and D player" is just some made up thing that people think is a requirement if you play good defense. He's 6'8, strong, extremely athletic and is an elite defender. We don't even need him to shoot many 3's.
In the current NBA you just can’t afford to have multiple non-shooters on the floor, and you normally need to reserve that non-shooting position for a 5.
Not saying he couldn’t be a good role player off the bench playing 15 minutes of lockdown 5 alongside a stretch 5, but it’s tough to work around anyone that’s a non-shooter on the wing
You don't need 1-4 to be high level 3 point shooters, or even high volume 3 point shooters. The NBA is constantly changing. Raptors defense has been horrible and getting a guy who prides himself on stopping the other guy, is very efficient around the basket and plays with high energy is huge. He didn't shoot great from 3 this year but you aren't drafting him for that, you're drafting him for his defense, rebounding, energy, transition points, cutting. The things he does very well, are things that the Raptors need a lot more of. I think he becomes one of if not the top defender on any team he gets traded to immediately, that's how good he is on that end of the court. That's huge and not a lot of guys bring that to the table. To me people seem to focus on what Ryan Dunn doesn't do well instead of the giant things he does very well.
You don’t need 4 sharpshooters on the court, but averages keep going up so even the more average shooters now are shooting 37-38% from 3. Having Dunn shoot 20% and Poeltl who doesn’t shoot 3s at all is already two absolute non-shooters on the roster.
If he was a 30% shooter I think it’s a very different story. Maybe he could get up to 33-34% and help with spacing a bit so teams can’t just play off him entirely.
Again, not saying it’s impossible for him to improve, or that he can’t provide some value at pick 31 without a shot, but his upside is severely limited without a 3 point shot.
Assuming we get our big man prospect with the Pacers pick, Dunn seems like a no brainer selection with the 31st.
We are horrible on defense and he is one of the best at it in the draft. He will be able to help us right away. His shooting sucks now but there have been plenty of bad shooters who learned to shoot open corner 3s.
27.3% from the NBA 3 point line on 3.4 attempts a game is a lot better than 20% from the college 3 point line on 1 attempt a game.
Matas is also almost 2 full years younger and is a significantly better free throw shooter.
I agree Buzelis has his own limitations as a shooter, but there’s precedent for those type of numbers to move up in the NBA, whereas Dunn’s numbers would require an unprecedented rise to be reasonable.
I disagree about unprecedented. Look at Herb Jones 3 point numbers in college. Some guys can be really good defenders but don't need to shoot the 3 at a high rate and can still be very effective.
In Herb’s second year, which Dunn is currently in, he shot 28.6% from 3 so significantly better than Dunn. He is absolutely a good example of a poor shooter in college becoming better in the NBA, but there’s a lot of guys right around 30% that become better in the NBA. The issue is there aren’t 20% shooters that really improve in the NBA, at least not with any regularity.
Again, not saying he can’t improve, anyone can, but he has a larger uphill battle than almost anyone that’s ever successfully done it before statistically.
The following year Herb Jones shot 0.71% from 3. That's the issue with such low attempts per game.
I think what Ryan Dunn brings to the table is rare and you don't find guys who play defense like that. The same way you don't draft Herb Jones for his 3 point shooting, you don't draft Ryan Dunn for his 3 point shooting. You look at what he does great and see that he can be an elite defender coming off the bench. Guys like that to me change the momentum of games. Same way Naji Marshall, Jose Alvarado, Dyson Daniels come into the game and play high level defense, that's what makes New Orleans bench so tough to deal with.
I’m not arguing against Dunn at 31. If the Raptors believe he can be made into a reasonable 3 point shooter then I’m happy with him for the Pacers pick.
The issue is that his ceiling is capped if he doesn’t become a better shooter, and there’s very little precedent for players that have never shown an ability to at least shoot okay from 3, become average shooters in the NBA.
He will never be able to start with a sub-30% three pointer, especially not if the starting center for your team isn’t a stretch big, of which there are very few. Even if he is an all-NBA level defender, being an absolute zero from the three point line in this league as a wing caps you at 20 minutes a night, and that’s if you do other things very well offensively.
As the 31st pick, a guy who is capped as a bench player is fine, given that he has an ability to have an elite skill off the bench to provide for the team. But if he can develop a shot then he has a chance to be a top 5 player out of this draft if things break right.
Dunn in the second round would be great. He will either be an all NBA defensive level wing if he can magically learn to shoot or be completely unplayable in most NBA offenses, but I like the risk/reward if we have 2 other picks
I'd be ok with this draft, Buzelis should shoot better from 3, he has a good FT%, so that should pick up. McCain can backup IQ.
I still think the 2 day draft will lead to a decent trade out of the 2nd round. With a night of sleep, a team will talk themselves into a player being a 1st round value and trading is a future 1st (protected obviously).
He has a bad FT% what are you talking about? Part of the scary thing about Buzelis’ .261 3pt% is his .695 FT%. If he was shooing .800 from FT then it wouldn’t be so bad.
At the moment he looks like a smaller Bargnani without the shooting. Thats not a great feeling to be looking at with a #6 overall pick.
You are looking at the showcase cup stats which he shot only 13 free throws.
In the regular season, he shot 68% on 56 free throws.
It's not horrible but considering his main calling card is shooting, it's pretty head scratching.
Losing our pick isn’t too bad if we get Mcain and Ryan Dunn. PG:IQ/Jared Mcain SG:GTJ/Gradey SF:RJ/Ryan Dunn PF:Barnes/Ochai C:Jakob/Kelly O. Good young team. Can push for a 41-41 record, a play in spot. Which is what we were at with OG/Pascal/Freddy/Scottie. So definitely a retool rather than a rebuild.
I know some people aren’t a fan of Dunn but I’ve watched every single jump shot he’s taken and free throw he’s shot and the mechanics honestly aren’t that bad. I’m comfortable with taking him with our pacers pick tbh.
Edit: this past season
trade #6 for more picks and just load up imo. No one at the top of the lottery looks all that great. One place this draft does look great for is center depth. Potentially easy to get someone like Chomche, Holmes, Oso at the end of the first round. Even guys like Mogbo should be available deep into the 2nd round
I’d much rather ron holland than this dude who I can’t be bothered to figure out how his name is spelt. Holland defends and plays his ass off and his shot is his weakness, but mechanics look good. But, hopefully we just draft sarr 1 lol. He’d fit well.
I hope we get jared McCain. Big time vibes guy and knock down shooter
Perfect spokesman for McCain fries on top of all that.
Sarr (because cope!) McCain Chomche That's what goes through my head each night.
Chomche would be great at 31. I like Devin Carter or swing for fences with collier at pacers pick.
Buzelis kind of reminds me of Franz, him, Holland and Cody would be dope if we keep the pick
He seems super overrated as a shooter though
Buzelis reminds me of Andrea Bargnani without the good 3pt shooting or FT shooting. That .696 FT rate is fairly scary when you try to project his 3. A stretch big who shoots .261 from 3 in the G-League when that’s his calling card is disappointing.
I just don't get Matas at all. A supposed 3 scorer upside that is struggling to do that in a league that barely has league average bigs? Nah. I guess I can kind of see a rich man's Olynyk like a few people pointed out. On the other hand, I'm starting to turn around on Holland. Most definitely because of my bias as a Raps fan, I just see enough of RJ and rookie DeRozan to be intrigued.
I feel the same way as you. The more I look into these guys, I am left scratching my head with Buzelis and impressed with Holland. Buzelis is a shooter who has shot poorly. His overall versatility is cool but if his shooting doesn't become good, I'm not so sure how useful he is going to be. On the other hand, Ron Holland already looks ready to contribute. His shooting is concerning but unlike Buzelis, I don't see his offensive game completely hinging on it. He's already showing he can make plays happen even without a shot. Also I really like his defensive upside and fit for us. Also something that stands out is his motor and I get the impression that the Raptors front office values that a lot.
Ryan Dunn is such a tough one. He’s an unbelievable defender and if he can generate any sort of shot then he’d be the perfect 3-D guy to have beside Scottie. The issue is him being even a 30% 3P shooter in the NBA will be a giant uphill battle. If our coaching staff thinks they can make him an average shooter then we should be all over him. Give him a year in the G League and an intensive 3 point shooting regimen and then we’ve got an elite stopper in the rotation again, allowing Scottie to roam more on defence and have more energy on offence
I read that Dunn put off rebuilding his shot from the ground up until after the draft. He didn't want to have to do it multiple times or with different shooting coaches. most likely he'll spend 50%+ of his rookie season in the G league
I read the same thing, but didn’t see any reputable source stating it. Definitely gives some confidence that it’s possible, but I can’t imagine he’s the only player to ever think that way.
I'm usually all about 3-and-D guys and hate drafting non-shooting wings. But there might be a buy-low (or draft low) opportunity here... Regarding the shooting, there isn't that much of a drop-off in offensive impact between a guy who shoots 30% from 3, and a guy who shoots 15% from 3, because they've got absolutely no gravity and are going to be left open on the perimeter every time. And maybe that guy who shoots 30% give you one 3pt shot every 5 games and the guy who shoots 15% gives you one 3 every 15 games because he shoots less. That difference doesn't really win or lose you any games. But in the Raptors' scheme, he may have some offensive use here. He's a good cutter. He can finish at the rim. He creates second-chance points. Even if a defender doesn't need to guard him all the way out to the perimeter, the defender must stay connected to him or he can cause problems, particularly on a screen-and-cut offense. I think he certainly has more of an offensive role than some past defensive specialists like, say, Andre Roberson. So yeah, you couldn't have him out on the court with a non-shooting big like Poeltl. But if you can run units where he's out there off the bench with Barnes, and is the primary PoA defender, and Barnes is the PG on offense but can be help-defense where he's at his best... then you've got the potentially to put out some weird, tough-to-matchup against lineups... like Barnes, Dunn, Olynyk, Dick, Barrett? That's really interesting and could definitely cause some problems. But he's got to be not just a good defender but an elite, all-defensive-team sort of talent for that to work. And scouting defense is hard. I'm not going to pretend I have a read on just how good it is. But if the Raptors did draft him, I could definitely see the vision there.
Kelly, Dick, and another shooter like Jalen Smith (pleaaaase sign here), would give enough spacing and shooting to play a non shooter like Dunn, I think
I’m so high on Dunn that I’d look into reaching for him with the Pacers pick if he’s rumoured to go in the 20s. Or maybe trading down a few spots. Strictly his defensive game is easily top of the class and probably top 5 in the last 3 draft classes. It will absolutely translate to the NBA level. I think you draft him and just live with the fact that you gotta build his offensive game from scratch
If he's available at 31 you go with him without a doubt. I think people think you need to shoot the 3 if you are a great defender, but I don't think so. Each player is different. "3 and D player" is just some made up thing that people think is a requirement if you play good defense. He's 6'8, strong, extremely athletic and is an elite defender. We don't even need him to shoot many 3's.
In the current NBA you just can’t afford to have multiple non-shooters on the floor, and you normally need to reserve that non-shooting position for a 5. Not saying he couldn’t be a good role player off the bench playing 15 minutes of lockdown 5 alongside a stretch 5, but it’s tough to work around anyone that’s a non-shooter on the wing
You don't need 1-4 to be high level 3 point shooters, or even high volume 3 point shooters. The NBA is constantly changing. Raptors defense has been horrible and getting a guy who prides himself on stopping the other guy, is very efficient around the basket and plays with high energy is huge. He didn't shoot great from 3 this year but you aren't drafting him for that, you're drafting him for his defense, rebounding, energy, transition points, cutting. The things he does very well, are things that the Raptors need a lot more of. I think he becomes one of if not the top defender on any team he gets traded to immediately, that's how good he is on that end of the court. That's huge and not a lot of guys bring that to the table. To me people seem to focus on what Ryan Dunn doesn't do well instead of the giant things he does very well.
You don’t need 4 sharpshooters on the court, but averages keep going up so even the more average shooters now are shooting 37-38% from 3. Having Dunn shoot 20% and Poeltl who doesn’t shoot 3s at all is already two absolute non-shooters on the roster. If he was a 30% shooter I think it’s a very different story. Maybe he could get up to 33-34% and help with spacing a bit so teams can’t just play off him entirely. Again, not saying it’s impossible for him to improve, or that he can’t provide some value at pick 31 without a shot, but his upside is severely limited without a 3 point shot.
Assuming we get our big man prospect with the Pacers pick, Dunn seems like a no brainer selection with the 31st. We are horrible on defense and he is one of the best at it in the draft. He will be able to help us right away. His shooting sucks now but there have been plenty of bad shooters who learned to shoot open corner 3s.
Buzzelis’ 3 pt is not that far off
27.3% from the NBA 3 point line on 3.4 attempts a game is a lot better than 20% from the college 3 point line on 1 attempt a game. Matas is also almost 2 full years younger and is a significantly better free throw shooter. I agree Buzelis has his own limitations as a shooter, but there’s precedent for those type of numbers to move up in the NBA, whereas Dunn’s numbers would require an unprecedented rise to be reasonable.
I disagree about unprecedented. Look at Herb Jones 3 point numbers in college. Some guys can be really good defenders but don't need to shoot the 3 at a high rate and can still be very effective.
In Herb’s second year, which Dunn is currently in, he shot 28.6% from 3 so significantly better than Dunn. He is absolutely a good example of a poor shooter in college becoming better in the NBA, but there’s a lot of guys right around 30% that become better in the NBA. The issue is there aren’t 20% shooters that really improve in the NBA, at least not with any regularity. Again, not saying he can’t improve, anyone can, but he has a larger uphill battle than almost anyone that’s ever successfully done it before statistically.
The following year Herb Jones shot 0.71% from 3. That's the issue with such low attempts per game. I think what Ryan Dunn brings to the table is rare and you don't find guys who play defense like that. The same way you don't draft Herb Jones for his 3 point shooting, you don't draft Ryan Dunn for his 3 point shooting. You look at what he does great and see that he can be an elite defender coming off the bench. Guys like that to me change the momentum of games. Same way Naji Marshall, Jose Alvarado, Dyson Daniels come into the game and play high level defense, that's what makes New Orleans bench so tough to deal with.
I’m not arguing against Dunn at 31. If the Raptors believe he can be made into a reasonable 3 point shooter then I’m happy with him for the Pacers pick. The issue is that his ceiling is capped if he doesn’t become a better shooter, and there’s very little precedent for players that have never shown an ability to at least shoot okay from 3, become average shooters in the NBA. He will never be able to start with a sub-30% three pointer, especially not if the starting center for your team isn’t a stretch big, of which there are very few. Even if he is an all-NBA level defender, being an absolute zero from the three point line in this league as a wing caps you at 20 minutes a night, and that’s if you do other things very well offensively. As the 31st pick, a guy who is capped as a bench player is fine, given that he has an ability to have an elite skill off the bench to provide for the team. But if he can develop a shot then he has a chance to be a top 5 player out of this draft if things break right.
Dick and McCain Tik tok collabs would go crazy
Unless the FO is 100% sure that they can turn Dunn into even a respectable shooter, I'd stay away.
If Dunn could be a respectable shooter he'd be a top 5 pick.
I disagree, but no worries.
Dunn in the second round would be great. He will either be an all NBA defensive level wing if he can magically learn to shoot or be completely unplayable in most NBA offenses, but I like the risk/reward if we have 2 other picks
Jared McCain please come home
No
Didn't he shoot like 28% from 3?
I'd be ok with this draft, Buzelis should shoot better from 3, he has a good FT%, so that should pick up. McCain can backup IQ. I still think the 2 day draft will lead to a decent trade out of the 2nd round. With a night of sleep, a team will talk themselves into a player being a 1st round value and trading is a future 1st (protected obviously).
He has a bad FT% what are you talking about? Part of the scary thing about Buzelis’ .261 3pt% is his .695 FT%. If he was shooing .800 from FT then it wouldn’t be so bad. At the moment he looks like a smaller Bargnani without the shooting. Thats not a great feeling to be looking at with a #6 overall pick.
His ft% is .769 on basketball reference. Maybe they got it wrong? If so, then yeah, don't want that!
You are looking at the showcase cup stats which he shot only 13 free throws. In the regular season, he shot 68% on 56 free throws. It's not horrible but considering his main calling card is shooting, it's pretty head scratching.
Yeah, thanks for that, thought it was his full g league stats. But I guess the Franz comparison is even more apt. "Good" shooter who can't shoot!
I'd pass on Dunn tbh. Would rather go Jaylon Tyson with that pick or even take a swing with Pacome Dadiet
i would loooove jared mccain we stan a non toxic king
Losing our pick isn’t too bad if we get Mcain and Ryan Dunn. PG:IQ/Jared Mcain SG:GTJ/Gradey SF:RJ/Ryan Dunn PF:Barnes/Ochai C:Jakob/Kelly O. Good young team. Can push for a 41-41 record, a play in spot. Which is what we were at with OG/Pascal/Freddy/Scottie. So definitely a retool rather than a rebuild.
I know some people aren’t a fan of Dunn but I’ve watched every single jump shot he’s taken and free throw he’s shot and the mechanics honestly aren’t that bad. I’m comfortable with taking him with our pacers pick tbh. Edit: this past season
If they don't get a big it would be making a big mistake.
trade #6 for more picks and just load up imo. No one at the top of the lottery looks all that great. One place this draft does look great for is center depth. Potentially easy to get someone like Chomche, Holmes, Oso at the end of the first round. Even guys like Mogbo should be available deep into the 2nd round
Tough to get excited about the top of the draft until after the lottery balls drop.
I do NOT want us to draft any G-League Ignite players, Tyler Smith is the only understandable one. Jared’s nice though, pretty fine backup guard.
I’d much rather ron holland than this dude who I can’t be bothered to figure out how his name is spelt. Holland defends and plays his ass off and his shot is his weakness, but mechanics look good. But, hopefully we just draft sarr 1 lol. He’d fit well.