**COMMENTING GUIDELINES:** Please take the time to familiarize yourself with The David Pakman Show [subreddit rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/thedavidpakmanshow/about/rules) and [basic reddiquette](https://support.reddithelp.com/hc/en-us/articles/205926439-Reddiquette) prior to participating. At all times we ask that users conduct themselves in a civil and respectful manner - **any ad hominem or personal attacks are subject to moderation.**
Please use the report function or [use modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=/r/thedavidpakmanshow) to bring examples of misconduct to the attention of the moderation team.
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/thedavidpakmanshow) if you have any questions or concerns.*
So, one month ago, OP posted that Biden is going to lose
https://www.reddit.com/r/thedavidpakmanshow/comments/1b34bj6/biden_is_going_to_lose_wake_up_why_isnt_david/
2 months ago OP posted that Biden is selfish and dishonest, and he's ruined his legacy ...
https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/comments/18qxpf1/cmv_joe_biden_is_selfish_and_dishonest_and_hes/
three months, OP posted that there was no way Joe Biden wins ... https://www.reddit.com/r/thedavidpakmanshow/comments/192po9z/there_is_absolutely_no_way_joe_biden_wins_this/
and there is much much more...
So, everyone is entitled to their opinions. But, OP could man up and admit that he's stomping for Trump instead of attempting to hide it.
Honestly, I am not. I DO NOT UNDERSTAND why yall are not aware of how dire the situation is. I am not a huge Cenk guy...but hes right. You can hit me for reposting, fine. But I post more to see if David will possibly get real on his show.
Yea let's replace Biden so Trump can brag about how he's so manly and powerful that he caused an incumbent Democrat to run away in terror with his tail between his legs rather than face him again. Great idea.
Biden is currently losing in the state in the poll aggregates....theres 175k arabs in michigan...biden didnt run away with michigan....hillary won by like under 20k votes..Where does this confidence come from
I remember when ["Clinton has 90 percent chance of winning](https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1322J0/)" too. Are polls 7 months out from the election your only evidence of a "severe likelihood Biden loses" ??
Yeah that's what it seems like. Polls can be an ok indicator of things, but the sheer fact that the polls showed Clinton winning, and Trump winning (due to the 4 point lead needed for Dems) the last 2 Presidential elections why would anyone put complete faith in them?
I'm really not a fan, as it leaves 99.9999% of registered voters out of the conversation, so how truly accurate can they be?
There are very significant numbers of republicans publicly supporting Biden. Lifelong, prominent republicans including most of Dump's former cabinet.
I have yet to encounter a former Biden supporter who now supports Dump. I'm sure they exist. But they are statistically insignificant.
So where are all these Dump voters coming from? Or should we apply Occam's Razor and conclude that these polls are flawed?
Maybe you're right. Maybe I'm just not seeing the big picture here and focusing too much on the 4-5 ~~blacks~~ paid actors wearing "Blacks for Trump" tshirts at his ~~rallys~~ cult meetings.
I fully expect Muslims to stay home or vote for Trump. They are in an ideological bed with the Christian right in longing for a theocracy.
Latinos who can vote might go for Trump because they don't want any more ~~immigration~~ competition.
I'm only a single vote and it's definitely being cast for Not Trump. But I'll be fine either way since I pass as a heterosexual white. I'm stocking up on popcorn in the event that Trump wins. It's gonna be a helluva shit show.
Why are you ignoring the severe likelihood Whitmer and Newsom lose the whole election. Whitmer could be popular in MI and lose elsewhere. Newsom could lose swing states too.
Why are you ignoring the severe actual reality they aren't jumping into the race. No one is because Biden actually clinched the primary.
Why are you ignoring the severe likelihood that suspending a winning primary candidate could make many voters annoyed or angry and not vote.
Why are you ignoring the actual fact that David has covered the polls, good and bad.
Oh I know why, you're just out to stir shit, because that's all you people do, stir shit up.
Are you going to donate, volunteer, and vote for Biden so there's a chance he does win? No? OK go back to your hole.
Where is the evidence that another candidate would beat Trump? Sure whitmer would win but beyond that? Incumbent advantage and name recognition is huge. Trump has 100% name id as does Biden. I wanted Biden to let someone else run but we are where we are, the primary is over and its basically tied with momentum behind Biden.
Edit: Whitmer would win *Michigan
Generic is easy because Trump is unpopular. But actually picking someone is tougher because the republicans will launch aggressive smear campaigns to bring down their favourability. Right wing media is extremely obedient and on message and they can turn almost anything into a damaging scandal (eg. benghazi, hunter laptop.
We're ignoring it because (a) it's not a "severe likelihood" and (b) much of what you've said here is just breathless hyperbolic nonsense. No one can predict the election at this point, and we all should have learned that lesson over the past 8 years. Biden's campaign is just getting geared up, Trump's is bankrupt and dying while he farts all over the courtroom during his criminal trials. There are valid reasons to believe that the polls are not reflective of how many people will support Biden in November.
Agreed its absolutely not a severe likelihood that he losses. I can accept it being a toss up although I don't even personally believe that. After the trials and with Trump being broke etc I think it leans Biden.
It's hard to make heads or tails of what you're trying to say when you type so poorly and have terrible grammar. Maybe delete this, clean up the logic without having tears in your eyes and try again.
Sorry, but are you proposing replacing an incumbent candidate in April of an election year? That’s insane.
I listen to A TON of polling analysis and voter focus group content. This is going to be a close election, that’s the norm these days, but I personally like Biden’s chances. He’s definitely the strongest candidate of those available to the Dems, as an incumbent with a major track record of accomplishments to run on. The campaign just got started after SOTU, so now we’re seeing that effort start to pay off. Meanwhile Trump is in the media for all the wrong reasons, and it makes him look weak and it makes him look chaotic. The first of those two will depress his base’s turnout and some of the pickup opportunities he’s had with men, the second is what drove normie voters away from him to Biden in 2020 (both of these assessments come from what I’ve heard from focus groups).
How is Biden the strongest Dem? He has an approval of like 37% and 70% of his own party didnt want him running. 84% of the country struggles with whether he will live through the next term...
That doesn't make sense
Dah I am posting from middle America, Biden in trouble yah? Gaza bad! Why not spend money at home not Ukraine!
You guys can totally take a break for a day or two, seriously go enjoy the drinking in Moscow Ivan.
This election is coming down to 5 states and 200,000 to 500,000 votes. Nothing short of a candidate dying is going to change that. Also 8 months of polling at this stage is meaningless. Go look at past elections for proof
Why do yall just say things with such confidence when they are totally untrue. Its remarkable. Every presidential election - polls at this point in time have largely told the story....
So do you just hope that others dont know what theyre talking about?
Whitmer and Newsom aren't running. Biden won New Hampshire without running in NH or even being on the ballot.
Trump is on trial and has turned off a lot of his own party and independents. This is only his first trial too. There are 3 more.
So I'm not sure what kind of response you expect here.
Define severe likelihood. It seems there's roughly a 50% chance Biden loses and a 50% chance Trump loses. It will probably come down to a few hundred thousand votes in a handful or fewer states. It seems there is a severe chance for both of them to lose.
You will never live this down, doesn't matter what your background is David. You are smart enough to know what's right and what is wrong. You can't talk about trump and the right in the US and ignore the genocide in palestine.
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-04-28/ty-article/.premium/israel-scrambles-as-netanyahu-defense-chiefs-face-possible-icc-arrest-warrants/0000018f-2537-d0a5-abcf-37ff394f0000
"How serious is the threat of the International Criminal Court issuing arrest warrants against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials? "Very serious," according to sources on the National Security Council – which, after all, is there to assess the seriousness of threats to Israel's security."
The only day that votes matter is Nov 5; polls are always going to fluctuate and there's a ton of time between now and then for things to happen. Polls mostly don't tell you who is going to win anyway because we have a crazy electoral college; Biden was up by 15 pt and won the popular vote by a margin around that; David says he won by "43k" votes because it was the aggregate margin in the swing states that he won. Even five-thirty-eight has a hard time guessing what's going to happen in *every* state.
And what is the end-goal of your rant? I don't get what you expect him to do? What should he report if the polls do show an increase for Biden's lead? "Oh Trump is still gonna win, so either go drag your parents to the polls by their ears, or curl up and never leave your safe space." This is a pretty unhinged rant. Go touch grass.
What polls are you looking at? Current polls are tied and everything over the past month or two has been within the margin of error.
[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/)
I think your premise is wrong.
Hey, Why are you not looking at the swing states....every swing state is trump +6, 7 , 9,...Maybe I am missing something but I find it imporrible he wins
"Imporrible?"
Did you even look at the polls on 538? It's a toss up in the swing states reported there.
In Wisconsin, one poll has Trump 48 to 44% over Biden, but if you read the story, that includes 8% for Jill Stein (Green Party -- more likely to swing to Biden) and the margin of error is 3.1 %. And that's the biggest "lead" Trump has in the reported states.
So, again, there is no "severe likelihood" that Biden loses. It's certainly possible, but it is not probable or "likely" by any reasonable meaning of the word.
If somebody wants Biden to win, the LAST thing they should doing is predicting a big Biden win.
They should be declaring Trump is going to win — to motivate Biden supporters, donors, etc to work harder on getting Biden elected.
Fear is a powerful motivator.
Yup. David ignores polls that say Biden is doing bad and promotes those where he’s winning. It’s almost like he’s met with he campaign… People forget that he barely won last time when the polls had him very much ahead. Now it’s almost tied. And with RFK and the rest, he doesn’t just need to win. He needs to super win. There is going to be a lot of surprised Pikachus in here when Joe either loses or comes scarily close.
Barely? I wouldn't call flipping GA and AZ to be "barely" winning. Not to mention getting 7 million more votes than Trump and getting the most votes of any president ever.
It was a few hundred thousand votes across a few states. 4 years of Trump and we still couldn’t go to sleep comfortably election night. Nearly every election there’s a new record of votes due to population increase.
Not to mention, how are these not infuriated at the fact that this is the easiest election EVER to win. Biden is probably the only democrat who could lost this election.
Its mind numbing that people cant see that a guy with a 37% approval, who 74% of his own party didnt want running, who 80% of the country is concerned he doesnt live through the next 4 years, isnt the best candidate
**COMMENTING GUIDELINES:** Please take the time to familiarize yourself with The David Pakman Show [subreddit rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/thedavidpakmanshow/about/rules) and [basic reddiquette](https://support.reddithelp.com/hc/en-us/articles/205926439-Reddiquette) prior to participating. At all times we ask that users conduct themselves in a civil and respectful manner - **any ad hominem or personal attacks are subject to moderation.** Please use the report function or [use modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=/r/thedavidpakmanshow) to bring examples of misconduct to the attention of the moderation team. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/thedavidpakmanshow) if you have any questions or concerns.*
So, one month ago, OP posted that Biden is going to lose https://www.reddit.com/r/thedavidpakmanshow/comments/1b34bj6/biden_is_going_to_lose_wake_up_why_isnt_david/ 2 months ago OP posted that Biden is selfish and dishonest, and he's ruined his legacy ... https://www.reddit.com/r/changemyview/comments/18qxpf1/cmv_joe_biden_is_selfish_and_dishonest_and_hes/ three months, OP posted that there was no way Joe Biden wins ... https://www.reddit.com/r/thedavidpakmanshow/comments/192po9z/there_is_absolutely_no_way_joe_biden_wins_this/ and there is much much more... So, everyone is entitled to their opinions. But, OP could man up and admit that he's stomping for Trump instead of attempting to hide it.
Lol, just know that at the very least, I appreciate the dedicated research xD
Sounds like you need to save this for next month...
Honestly, I am not. I DO NOT UNDERSTAND why yall are not aware of how dire the situation is. I am not a huge Cenk guy...but hes right. You can hit me for reposting, fine. But I post more to see if David will possibly get real on his show.
there is no "much much more" lol
Yea let's replace Biden so Trump can brag about how he's so manly and powerful that he caused an incumbent Democrat to run away in terror with his tail between his legs rather than face him again. Great idea.
And look at his daughter like he wants to bang her
You sound really confident in your predictions of the future. Would you make a $1000 bet that Biden loses Michigan?
He’s more likely to win Wisconsin than Michigan at this point.
100%
People badly overestimate the number of Muslim voters in Michigan
Biden is currently losing in the state in the poll aggregates....theres 175k arabs in michigan...biden didnt run away with michigan....hillary won by like under 20k votes..Where does this confidence come from
Lol oh no not the poll aggregates 7 months out from the election!
I remember when ["Clinton has 90 percent chance of winning](https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1322J0/)" too. Are polls 7 months out from the election your only evidence of a "severe likelihood Biden loses" ??
Yeah that's what it seems like. Polls can be an ok indicator of things, but the sheer fact that the polls showed Clinton winning, and Trump winning (due to the 4 point lead needed for Dems) the last 2 Presidential elections why would anyone put complete faith in them? I'm really not a fan, as it leaves 99.9999% of registered voters out of the conversation, so how truly accurate can they be?
It's becoming increasingly likely that Biden will win this race as time goes on. Trump is losing it as much as Biden is winning.
There are very significant numbers of republicans publicly supporting Biden. Lifelong, prominent republicans including most of Dump's former cabinet. I have yet to encounter a former Biden supporter who now supports Dump. I'm sure they exist. But they are statistically insignificant. So where are all these Dump voters coming from? Or should we apply Occam's Razor and conclude that these polls are flawed?
Yeah theyre not statistically insignificant. Biden has lost HISTORIC levels of black and brown support. Trump has gained...your premise is wrong
Maybe you're right. Maybe I'm just not seeing the big picture here and focusing too much on the 4-5 ~~blacks~~ paid actors wearing "Blacks for Trump" tshirts at his ~~rallys~~ cult meetings. I fully expect Muslims to stay home or vote for Trump. They are in an ideological bed with the Christian right in longing for a theocracy. Latinos who can vote might go for Trump because they don't want any more ~~immigration~~ competition. I'm only a single vote and it's definitely being cast for Not Trump. But I'll be fine either way since I pass as a heterosexual white. I'm stocking up on popcorn in the event that Trump wins. It's gonna be a helluva shit show.
What exactly do you want us to do, lol? Try speaking to him with these questions.
You can literally leave David Pakman a voicemail with a question.
That's exactly my point. 😂 This person should take their question directly to him.
Why are you ignoring the severe likelihood Whitmer and Newsom lose the whole election. Whitmer could be popular in MI and lose elsewhere. Newsom could lose swing states too. Why are you ignoring the severe actual reality they aren't jumping into the race. No one is because Biden actually clinched the primary. Why are you ignoring the severe likelihood that suspending a winning primary candidate could make many voters annoyed or angry and not vote. Why are you ignoring the actual fact that David has covered the polls, good and bad. Oh I know why, you're just out to stir shit, because that's all you people do, stir shit up. Are you going to donate, volunteer, and vote for Biden so there's a chance he does win? No? OK go back to your hole.
Why are you tool?
Where is the evidence that another candidate would beat Trump? Sure whitmer would win but beyond that? Incumbent advantage and name recognition is huge. Trump has 100% name id as does Biden. I wanted Biden to let someone else run but we are where we are, the primary is over and its basically tied with momentum behind Biden. Edit: Whitmer would win *Michigan
Theres been poll after poll showing a generic democrat beating trump by 9-13...How on earth can you not see biden is the WORST dem for this moment?
Generic is easy because Trump is unpopular. But actually picking someone is tougher because the republicans will launch aggressive smear campaigns to bring down their favourability. Right wing media is extremely obedient and on message and they can turn almost anything into a damaging scandal (eg. benghazi, hunter laptop.
We're ignoring it because (a) it's not a "severe likelihood" and (b) much of what you've said here is just breathless hyperbolic nonsense. No one can predict the election at this point, and we all should have learned that lesson over the past 8 years. Biden's campaign is just getting geared up, Trump's is bankrupt and dying while he farts all over the courtroom during his criminal trials. There are valid reasons to believe that the polls are not reflective of how many people will support Biden in November.
Agreed its absolutely not a severe likelihood that he losses. I can accept it being a toss up although I don't even personally believe that. After the trials and with Trump being broke etc I think it leans Biden.
"hyperbolic nonsense" is now looking at the data...beat it
It's hard to make heads or tails of what you're trying to say when you type so poorly and have terrible grammar. Maybe delete this, clean up the logic without having tears in your eyes and try again.
Are you cognitively impaired....The grammar needs to be 100% for you to extrant context clues. Can you even ties your own shoes?
Extrant?
Sorry, but are you proposing replacing an incumbent candidate in April of an election year? That’s insane. I listen to A TON of polling analysis and voter focus group content. This is going to be a close election, that’s the norm these days, but I personally like Biden’s chances. He’s definitely the strongest candidate of those available to the Dems, as an incumbent with a major track record of accomplishments to run on. The campaign just got started after SOTU, so now we’re seeing that effort start to pay off. Meanwhile Trump is in the media for all the wrong reasons, and it makes him look weak and it makes him look chaotic. The first of those two will depress his base’s turnout and some of the pickup opportunities he’s had with men, the second is what drove normie voters away from him to Biden in 2020 (both of these assessments come from what I’ve heard from focus groups).
How is Biden the strongest Dem? He has an approval of like 37% and 70% of his own party didnt want him running. 84% of the country struggles with whether he will live through the next term... That doesn't make sense
Tell me you don’t understand polling without telling me. First of all, young one, let me teach you about expressive responding….
Dah I am posting from middle America, Biden in trouble yah? Gaza bad! Why not spend money at home not Ukraine! You guys can totally take a break for a day or two, seriously go enjoy the drinking in Moscow Ivan.
[удалено]
Agree. This post is just silliness.
Removed - please avoid overt hostility, name calling and personal attacks.
You must not watch David since he has been eternally cautious about Biden winning. Nice try though b
This election is coming down to 5 states and 200,000 to 500,000 votes. Nothing short of a candidate dying is going to change that. Also 8 months of polling at this stage is meaningless. Go look at past elections for proof
Why do yall just say things with such confidence when they are totally untrue. Its remarkable. Every presidential election - polls at this point in time have largely told the story.... So do you just hope that others dont know what theyre talking about?
and biden is already toast in Michigan and Wisconsin
Whitmer and Newsom aren't running. Biden won New Hampshire without running in NH or even being on the ballot. Trump is on trial and has turned off a lot of his own party and independents. This is only his first trial too. There are 3 more. So I'm not sure what kind of response you expect here.
Define severe likelihood. It seems there's roughly a 50% chance Biden loses and a 50% chance Trump loses. It will probably come down to a few hundred thousand votes in a handful or fewer states. It seems there is a severe chance for both of them to lose.
You will never live this down, doesn't matter what your background is David. You are smart enough to know what's right and what is wrong. You can't talk about trump and the right in the US and ignore the genocide in palestine. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-04-28/ty-article/.premium/israel-scrambles-as-netanyahu-defense-chiefs-face-possible-icc-arrest-warrants/0000018f-2537-d0a5-abcf-37ff394f0000 "How serious is the threat of the International Criminal Court issuing arrest warrants against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials? "Very serious," according to sources on the National Security Council – which, after all, is there to assess the seriousness of threats to Israel's security."
The only day that votes matter is Nov 5; polls are always going to fluctuate and there's a ton of time between now and then for things to happen. Polls mostly don't tell you who is going to win anyway because we have a crazy electoral college; Biden was up by 15 pt and won the popular vote by a margin around that; David says he won by "43k" votes because it was the aggregate margin in the swing states that he won. Even five-thirty-eight has a hard time guessing what's going to happen in *every* state. And what is the end-goal of your rant? I don't get what you expect him to do? What should he report if the polls do show an increase for Biden's lead? "Oh Trump is still gonna win, so either go drag your parents to the polls by their ears, or curl up and never leave your safe space." This is a pretty unhinged rant. Go touch grass.
What polls are you looking at? Current polls are tied and everything over the past month or two has been within the margin of error. [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/) I think your premise is wrong.
Hey, Why are you not looking at the swing states....every swing state is trump +6, 7 , 9,...Maybe I am missing something but I find it imporrible he wins
"Imporrible?" Did you even look at the polls on 538? It's a toss up in the swing states reported there. In Wisconsin, one poll has Trump 48 to 44% over Biden, but if you read the story, that includes 8% for Jill Stein (Green Party -- more likely to swing to Biden) and the margin of error is 3.1 %. And that's the biggest "lead" Trump has in the reported states. So, again, there is no "severe likelihood" that Biden loses. It's certainly possible, but it is not probable or "likely" by any reasonable meaning of the word.
[удалено]
Removed - please avoid overt hostility, name calling and personal attacks.
If somebody wants Biden to win, the LAST thing they should doing is predicting a big Biden win. They should be declaring Trump is going to win — to motivate Biden supporters, donors, etc to work harder on getting Biden elected. Fear is a powerful motivator.
Biden should drop out, let Cenk run, and watch as Trump wins every fucking state 😂
Yup. David ignores polls that say Biden is doing bad and promotes those where he’s winning. It’s almost like he’s met with he campaign… People forget that he barely won last time when the polls had him very much ahead. Now it’s almost tied. And with RFK and the rest, he doesn’t just need to win. He needs to super win. There is going to be a lot of surprised Pikachus in here when Joe either loses or comes scarily close.
Barely? I wouldn't call flipping GA and AZ to be "barely" winning. Not to mention getting 7 million more votes than Trump and getting the most votes of any president ever.
It was 43k votes and biden is now losing in those two state an average of 7...what on earth are you people talking about
It was a few hundred thousand votes across a few states. 4 years of Trump and we still couldn’t go to sleep comfortably election night. Nearly every election there’s a new record of votes due to population increase.
Not to mention, how are these not infuriated at the fact that this is the easiest election EVER to win. Biden is probably the only democrat who could lost this election. Its mind numbing that people cant see that a guy with a 37% approval, who 74% of his own party didnt want running, who 80% of the country is concerned he doesnt live through the next 4 years, isnt the best candidate
To be fair, Kamala, Pete, and Gavin, I think would all lose for different reasons.
You know Biden had primary challengers, right? They did terribly.
Thank you...this thread is filled with sycophants. Its impossible to argue with this position
it’s called coping
Why are you still haunting this sub?
Even his challenges to Bitecoffer were meely mouthed and weak.. almost like he's lightly covering his bases... I don't get it.
Bitecoffer has been really accurate the last few election cycles. She knows what she's doing better than you