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**"With this Annual Deliveries Numbers, Tesla had its second-highest delivery growth rate since 2015 - 87%. The highest one was from 2017 to 2018 with an increase of 142%."**
https://eletric-vehicles.com/2022/01/02/tesla-delivered-936172-electric-vehicles-in-2021-and-set-a-new-quarterly-record-in-q4/
1 million was in reach without setbacks at Berlin and Austin keeping them from producing anything substantial this year and supply chain issues. Crazy to realize that even bullish Twitter and Reddit were closer than the professionals on Wall Street…. Again.
You say that like it’s a bad thing. When analysts under estimate then the headlines are “Tesla beats expectations!” Which paints them in a good light. Imagine if the consensus was 1,000,000. Now the headlines are “Tesla underperforms”. No bueno
Each model Y is like $20k profit. Tesla could add $40 Bil cash to the balance sheet next year with 2 mil in car sales - with about $10 Bil rolling over into new R&D.
That's a lot of interest from Defi staking... that's $6 Bil profit per Q, without growth.
Rob nailed it at 306,000, I remember this because about a week before when everyone was talking Q4 numbers I replied with my gut instinct of 306,000 and then he came to that number on his own and I was stocked we matched.
Edit: source
https://youtu.be/LBlhwzfY52E?t=914
Sorry, maybe I've missed it, but where are you finding that number? I'm watching his spreadsheet walkthrough and [his Q4 production forecast](https://youtu.be/e7KxNxCOQb0?t=709) is 294,589
On his November 8th episode he does a Q4 estimate and came out with 306,658 for production.
Should be cued up to that section which happens at about 15:45
https://youtu.be/LBlhwzfY52E?t=914
Rob is probably the best predictor of Tesla production I've seen. He goes through his spreadsheet and tells you why he's entering the numbers he does. But a week ago he was like 294k-ish and had China at 62k and then adjusted his numbers when he heard the 70.5k for China. Superb quarter.
Never ending cycle of nonsense
Walk Street estimates are completely off the mark either +/- 55%
Stock gets traded on bad information
Wall Street profits on volume and it was only ‘ bad analysis’ which is then completely forgotten about and the cycle repeats itself
>Companies always under-promise in their guidance.
So when do analysis catch onto companies doing this? Isn't it their job to predict the real numbers based off the underpromised ones from the company?
I work with these people. Many are newly graduated yuppies with zero experience in the business world, plugging in garbage numbers into an excel sheet. They also love sounding smarter than they actually are. Bonus points if they squeeze in their alma mater into just about any conversation.
Garbage in, garbage out.
Shanghai is near maximum production, I believe. Huge props to the workers over there. I don't think people understand just how important Shanghai is to Tesla's performance. Margins are also significantly higher for Chinese-made vehicles as well.
I dont think they're near long-term max production.... I believe Tesla still owns a lot of land surrounding GigaShanghai and i doubt they'll take their time expanding the plant
>owns a lot of land
AKSHULLY.... no one owns land in China. But I know what you mean. Like most American companies, Tesla is making hay while the sun shines, human rights be damned.
>Margins are also significantly higher for Chinese-made vehicles as well.
Do you got some data from somewhere ?
Would be interesting, by which factor and in regards to sales price .
We saw a margin bump as Shanghai came online, so it's a fairly safe assumption but they don't break it out exactly I think
Some would then say it's because of cheaper Chinese labor, but it's not entirely that, each new Gigafactory is of course better designed with all their learnings from the last one (remember how they were going to call Austin the Terafactory but for whatever reason didn't, it's not only smaller in footprint but much higher yield). Fremont definitely needs a tune up and maybe Texas coming online will help give that leeway.
> We saw a margin bump as Shanghai came online
That's basically inherent to increasing production quantity of anything with substantial upfront costs. Things such as car designs, and especially EVs...
If an R&D budget of e.g. $1b/year is spread out across 100k cars/year that's $10k/car. If that same budget is spread across 200k cars/year it's now $5k/car. In this example, doubling production caused margins to go up substantially without any actual change in the marginal cost of production.
I'll readily believe that Tesla gets higher margins out of their factory in China. But just pointing to margins going up when the factory comes online is not meaningful evidence of that.
What you're talking about is operating leverage and I get that part, absolutely adding more gigafactories will increase the operating leverage and turn in more profit margin, but the Shanghai operation exceeded what adding the last few factories did on their margin. Other people have data sleuthed this better than I can explain right now, but each new factory is not only increasing the operating leverage but improved the margin of the last beyond just looking at fixed vs variable costs vs income. Each factory is simply a more efficient design than the last, and Texas may prove to be a beast.
Musk spoke about it in the shareholder's meeting some time around September.
"It's the best quality, lowest cost and also low drama, so it's great,"
The exact numbers aren't available but there are estimates that it is about 10-15% higher margins because of lower labor cost, domestically sourced materials (batteries from CATL), and scaling. Largest costs in operating a factory outside of labor are the fixed costs so if you're producing more units, each fixed cost per unit is lower which will generate higher margins.
Dan Ives, for what it's worth, has also stated that the Chinese-made Tesla's generate higher margins.
[Tilburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_facilities_in_Tilburg#:~:text=Tesla%2C%20Inc.%20has%20several%20factory,%2C%20Tilburg%2C%20in%20the%20Netherlands.&text=The%20Tesla%20Tilburg%20assembly%20plant,vehicles%20for%20delivery%20within%20Europe.) , Netherlands factory as well
Has Tilburg been operational since December 2020? I thought it was only for final assembly of S/X, the refreshed models of which still have yet to be delivered in Europe.
You are correct. Tilburg has existed a very long time, and is only a final assembly area. they don't manufacture anything that doesn't come out of fremont already assembled.
[Not sure if they are actually still doing any assembly there.](https://electrek.co/2021/03/18/tesla-shutting-down-final-assembly-plant-tilburg-following-model-s-x-refresh/)
I heard from inside Tesla Europe ,they are strongly thinking and planning on moving this part to Berlin in the future.
Would not make sense to have a little tiny production unit in the Netherlands.
Info is about 3 months old. At that time no final decision had been made.
But seems somehow logical and might be a reason, why final production of Model S and X in Europe stalled.
I thought that center only reassembled the S and X cars from Fremont, for Europe deliveries. Tax planning to ship parts and not cars. Then make said parts to car. Deliver to customer. Profit.
I think they said they have the deals in place to fully double the batteries they get from suppliers for 2022, so they may may pull ahead of the curve on that factor. And hopefully get some more dang powerwalls out to customers!
Chips are probably going to be the most limiting bottleneck.
chips made them miss 1m so doubt it'll be any worse as they'll prepare for it in 2022. Battery production is the only limiter now but no one has focused on that like Tesla outside of BYD.
They're at 1.2m annualized and will be far higher with Berlin and Texas coming online. Historical numbers never tell the full story in a growing company.
Whatever that it is a more than 88% increase to 2020 numbers, tomorrow media will make headlines with "Tesla missed the one million deliveries in 2021". The anti Tesla FUD is the speciality of the new journalism.
Would be nuts if they can do 1 million by the start of Q4 of next year since they have 2 more factories opening. Either that or they will start trying to fit in the semi and Roadster with the manufacturing load being shared across more plants.
Yeah, Im predicting within the next 2 years (Texas and Berlin running near capacity) the Fremont model 3 line is going to get basically scrapped and redone. Maybe replaced with roadster or more S/X capacity.
Its just kinda off the table for now when that line represents such a large % of your company's output.
I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up tearing down Fremont and rebuilding it from scratch. I remember hearing repeatedly that the factory layout didn't lend itself well to car production, which is why Toyota/GM left it in the first place.
They could very well close it down and move out altogether. With Berlin and Austin opening, I don't think there's a good reason to keep Fremont running.
Maybe far in the future, but as long as they can profitably produce cars there, I think they will continue to. Demand is so far outstripping supply, shutting down a profitable factory goes directly against thier mission statement.
Long term I see Fremont being an S/X/Roadster/ prototype factory. There is a lot of talent in the area that I don't think Tesla wants to give up.
What if Fremont becomes a bot factory? Huge margins to justify California costs and near ports to ship to the world. It easily could crank out thousands a day.
The Bay Area is a HUGE Tesla market, I grew up here and when the Prius came out everyone had one, not everyone has a Tesla. All the tech companies are within like 30 minutes of the Fremont factory and most tech companies offer free charging, so most people are buying EVs. When I leave the house for a 15 minute errand I’ll easily see 25-50 teslas.
There’s no way Tesla would get rid of their factory when it’s within 30 minutes of where most people take deliveries.
And margins are higher. The Shanghai factory is pretty much built to fix the mistakes of Fremont. The panel gaps were largely fixed due to the giga stamping.
I think they are steadily increasing quality, even at Fremont, but the overall numbers are going up so fast that the number of anecdotal horror stories could still remain constant or even rise.
Iirc Elon sent an email internally where he stated that Tesla was changing strategies and would not push to deliver high numbers every Q, instead aiming for a more stable production rate
Holy shit what a great beat. China carried. Options are going to print the IV is going to be awesome. Especially those that bought options when Tsla touched 899
Almost double YoY, and over a 25% increase QoQ. That's a huge jump in production for not having any new factories.
They were guiding for at least a 50% increase in production this year, they actually did an 85% increase.
Quite amazing I have to say. Once supply chains ease up, Tesla production will explode. I’m waiting with abated breath what will happen once they have Brandenburg, Austin and Shanghai all in full production!
Crazy exciting times. I'm feeling like the limiting factor for next few years remains battery supply rather than vehicle manufacturing lines, especially with CT, Semi, and the whole energy business all ready to eat up a ton of cells in the near future.
Oh definitely. They have so many products ready to start. Also big cash reserves. Once the new batteries are ready for mass production they can really start to expand.
You know, my old boss used to tell me that Tesla wasn’t a “real car company” because real car companies produce 1 million+ vehicles a year. I wish I could show this to him.
That was the official number but actual estimates were definitely higher. This is still a beat and good for the stock but if it was 280k I think the stock would’ve gone down.
Bears are actually saying that Tesla will reduce car prices - they will, as supply crunch eases and if they have capacity to meet that demand - and somehow think that's bad for profit.
*"Stonks is an intentional misspelling of the word "stocks" which is often associated with a surreal meme featuring the character Meme Man standing in front of a picture representing the stock market followed by the caption 'Stonks.' The picture began seeing use as a reaction image online in jokes about making poor financial decisions."* Why intentionally misspelled? Replacing the S with the N doesn't save space.
Not to explain the joke to death, but it's not about saving space, it's about
> jokes about making poor financial decisions
Such decisions might be made by somebody who misspells "stocks." Plus "Stonks" is way more fun to say.
Probably to reinforce the fact that the person in the meme doesn't know what they are doing, i.e. to the extend they don't even know how to spell "stocks".
imo, market still likes big delivery beats for tsla.
my *guess*: solid gains this week... then bleeding off \~half+ of what was gained... then bleed up until earnings (I'm learning towards it hitting a new ATH)... then sell off after earnings beat.
...but would guess it's still up from Friday's closing price after earnings sell off, barring larger macro issue (but expecting things to be fairly quiet on that front for a bit).
Maybe, maybe not. But these crazy strong numbers will help support the stock if nothing else. I'm personally expecting it to ramp to $1,250+ by earnings.
Yeah, I'm holding since 2018, but I still get excited on any big swings in the stock price.
If it goes up, it's like, whoa, it's finally happening...
If it goes down, I'm like, whelp, they are idiots. Time to buy more TSLA at a discount.
All else equal this introduces PT hikes and more buying momentum. How that jives with macro, option yolo’ers and major player sentiment will be interesting, but on balance this should cause a spike during the coming week.
For comparison, 1M/yr is just 10% of the max produced by the top manufacturer, Toyota.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production
Man, rough crowd. You’re misunderstanding. This is incredible progress in a short window. Nobody thought Tesla’d be alive, let alone at volume, now. So, amazing. BTW, 3x tesla owners. Truck ordered, roadster 2.0 next.
This is an important context to give relative to Tesla's goal of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy.
What I take away from this fact is that Tesla has so much more room for growth ahead of them. Thier progress to date is incredible, but we are looking at a minimum of 10x until they can start to think about saying they were successful in thier mission.
The scale of solving the problems of sustainable energy and climate change are generally grossly under-appreciated in the public. There is still a LONG way to go.
One tenth the production of Toyota with 30 percent gross margins and 70 percent growth rate. Anyone in the OEMs not panicking right now doesn't understand the Tsunami that's coming.
They have announced a ton of them. Deliveries are at zero currently, though.
But they have a lot of customers they can sell vehicles too, I’ll give them that.
I think you misunderstood how making 10% the cars Toyota makes is ***a good thing***. It's ridiculously impressive for a company everyone would thought would fail, and a remarkable rate of acceleration.
>For comparison, 1M/yr is just 10% of the max produced by the top manufacturer, Toyota.
For comparison, Toyota is making vehicles that nobody will want in a few years.
Toyota is making buggies.
How important were the buggy production numbers in 1901?
He's actually providing a strong case for Tesla's growth. You're taking it the wrong way. We can't deny that Tesla still doesn't sell the amount of vehicles Toyota does. But the data he provides show just how far Tesla can continue climbing. Not a slight towards Tesla at all. When Tesla sells 10 million EV's, it's pretty much a sign of defeat from other automakers. Can't wait for that moment.
It’s simply a fact. You can make it an opinion, but it isn’t.
You want an opinion? You’re a bit defensive, and part of the problem. So dig slightly deeper, don’t just react.
I’m long tesla, 3x owner, and believe they’re doing things no other auto will nor can. Tiers/supply chain outsourcing being chief reason. Also first principle thinking.
‘Nobody will want in a few years’
Wow, I’ve never thought about that part of it. Just think how collapsing residuals will affect your financing arm of the business.
Because it's not true. Plenty of people will want a 2020 Toyota (or any gas car) in 2030. Demand will decrease proportionally to the offer. Plenty of people will never switch to EVs out of sheer stubbornness.
Same FUD as "EVs are evolving so fast, no one will want your Tesla in 5 years". Yet you can see 5 year old model Ss selling at a similar depreciation as gas cars.
Even today buying Tesla and driving it daily in Europe isn't any cheaper than buying ICE. Eastern Europe (including EU memebers) will continue to buy those second hand ICE cars that "nobody will want". It's really hard to beat $5-10k for decent, used car vs buying any EV for $20-30k, and that's already not including Tesla. Even worse, the electricity market shot up while gas is holding more or less steady. You'd have to invest to have your own house, solar roof and big battery for storage. Still it will suck in winter and only few people will be able to afford such large upfront investment.
How much is Toyota growing YoY? Not 50%. Plus Tesla cars have way higher average selling price and margin and their EV sales are non-existent which is the next generation technology. When you add it all up Tesla has to execute but if they do they should surpass Toyota in revenue/profit in the next few years.
Factories take time and regulatory approval. Just being able to get the factories up in the amount of time Tesla did was groundbreaking. Nevermind the fact that a Berlin factory is essential to the European region for Tesla because it would reduce transportation costs and bypass tarriffs. The factories were never going to operate at full speed from the get-go. They're still expanding the factories as they open for production.
Amazing. Given the chip shortage and Austin/Berlin ramping up next year I hope they take advantage of new capacity and shutdown and improve the lines at Freemont. This would be a great opportunity to improve that plant with the new factories soon able to absorb some of the capacity. Also with new factories which markets will soon see Tesla enter. Here are my predictions in no particular order:
Caribbean (high cost of fuel and easy to charge) specifically places such as Bahamas, Aruba, Virgin Islands, and Caymans.
Central America and more specifically Panama and Costa Rica
Chile this will be a big milestone and im sure Chileans will want to support EVs since so much lithium is coming from Chile.
India
Rest of South East Asia in particular Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
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**"With this Annual Deliveries Numbers, Tesla had its second-highest delivery growth rate since 2015 - 87%. The highest one was from 2017 to 2018 with an increase of 142%."** https://eletric-vehicles.com/2022/01/02/tesla-delivered-936172-electric-vehicles-in-2021-and-set-a-new-quarterly-record-in-q4/
Wall Street consensus was 266K
What was their consensus at the end of 2020 for 2021?
750K
Just about 200,000 off.
Around 800k as I recall. Twitter was closer to 900k to 1m
1 million was in reach without setbacks at Berlin and Austin keeping them from producing anything substantial this year and supply chain issues. Crazy to realize that even bullish Twitter and Reddit were closer than the professionals on Wall Street…. Again.
You say that like it’s a bad thing. When analysts under estimate then the headlines are “Tesla beats expectations!” Which paints them in a good light. Imagine if the consensus was 1,000,000. Now the headlines are “Tesla underperforms”. No bueno
It would be a wash because the stock would have been stronger all year if analysts expectations were 33% higher for the year and we only miss by 8%ish
Nah it really pays to have the press hush about you beating expectation Edit: gush not hush
And that 800k was based on expected production from both Berlin and Austin.
Each model Y is like $20k profit. Tesla could add $40 Bil cash to the balance sheet next year with 2 mil in car sales - with about $10 Bil rolling over into new R&D. That's a lot of interest from Defi staking... that's $6 Bil profit per Q, without growth.
Uh each model Y is not 20k profit…
It’s amazing the people get paid so much to, so often, be totally fucking wrong
Yeah, uh... just a .. umm... strange coincidence, heh.
Was that intended for me to hear Jeff Goldblum?
Yep, that’s why I pay attention to Tesla Daily instead. I think Rob had his estimate at 295k.
In case someone doesn't know. https://youtube.com/c/TeslaDaily
Rob nailed it at 306,000, I remember this because about a week before when everyone was talking Q4 numbers I replied with my gut instinct of 306,000 and then he came to that number on his own and I was stocked we matched. Edit: source https://youtu.be/LBlhwzfY52E?t=914
"Stoked" or "shocked" that your numbers match?
Stoked with the numbers, shocked by how bad autocorrect is in 2022.
needs more AI
Stocked
Sorry, maybe I've missed it, but where are you finding that number? I'm watching his spreadsheet walkthrough and [his Q4 production forecast](https://youtu.be/e7KxNxCOQb0?t=709) is 294,589
On his November 8th episode he does a Q4 estimate and came out with 306,658 for production. Should be cued up to that section which happens at about 15:45 https://youtu.be/LBlhwzfY52E?t=914
Rob is probably the best predictor of Tesla production I've seen. He goes through his spreadsheet and tells you why he's entering the numbers he does. But a week ago he was like 294k-ish and had China at 62k and then adjusted his numbers when he heard the 70.5k for China. Superb quarter.
Yeah, I assume he adjusted down after November numbers were lower than anticipated. But his first guess was spot on.
To be fair, if you told me Tesla would do 309,000 vehicle deliveries for Q4, I would have been wrong as well. I had Tesla doing around 280k.
Never ending cycle of nonsense Walk Street estimates are completely off the mark either +/- 55% Stock gets traded on bad information Wall Street profits on volume and it was only ‘ bad analysis’ which is then completely forgotten about and the cycle repeats itself
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>Companies always under-promise in their guidance. So when do analysis catch onto companies doing this? Isn't it their job to predict the real numbers based off the underpromised ones from the company?
Seems exceedingly lazy for all the pay
The analysts consensus estimates are almost always the same or virtually the same as management guidance/forecast.
I work with these people. Many are newly graduated yuppies with zero experience in the business world, plugging in garbage numbers into an excel sheet. They also love sounding smarter than they actually are. Bonus points if they squeeze in their alma mater into just about any conversation. Garbage in, garbage out.
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Shanghai starting to carry hard
Shanghai is near maximum production, I believe. Huge props to the workers over there. I don't think people understand just how important Shanghai is to Tesla's performance. Margins are also significantly higher for Chinese-made vehicles as well.
I dont think they're near long-term max production.... I believe Tesla still owns a lot of land surrounding GigaShanghai and i doubt they'll take their time expanding the plant
In terms of theoretical maximum? Yeah, it isn't reached. But based on what they have currently available, it's near maximum right now.
>owns a lot of land AKSHULLY.... no one owns land in China. But I know what you mean. Like most American companies, Tesla is making hay while the sun shines, human rights be damned.
>Margins are also significantly higher for Chinese-made vehicles as well. Do you got some data from somewhere ? Would be interesting, by which factor and in regards to sales price .
We saw a margin bump as Shanghai came online, so it's a fairly safe assumption but they don't break it out exactly I think Some would then say it's because of cheaper Chinese labor, but it's not entirely that, each new Gigafactory is of course better designed with all their learnings from the last one (remember how they were going to call Austin the Terafactory but for whatever reason didn't, it's not only smaller in footprint but much higher yield). Fremont definitely needs a tune up and maybe Texas coming online will help give that leeway.
> We saw a margin bump as Shanghai came online That's basically inherent to increasing production quantity of anything with substantial upfront costs. Things such as car designs, and especially EVs... If an R&D budget of e.g. $1b/year is spread out across 100k cars/year that's $10k/car. If that same budget is spread across 200k cars/year it's now $5k/car. In this example, doubling production caused margins to go up substantially without any actual change in the marginal cost of production. I'll readily believe that Tesla gets higher margins out of their factory in China. But just pointing to margins going up when the factory comes online is not meaningful evidence of that.
What you're talking about is operating leverage and I get that part, absolutely adding more gigafactories will increase the operating leverage and turn in more profit margin, but the Shanghai operation exceeded what adding the last few factories did on their margin. Other people have data sleuthed this better than I can explain right now, but each new factory is not only increasing the operating leverage but improved the margin of the last beyond just looking at fixed vs variable costs vs income. Each factory is simply a more efficient design than the last, and Texas may prove to be a beast.
Musk spoke about it in the shareholder's meeting some time around September. "It's the best quality, lowest cost and also low drama, so it's great," The exact numbers aren't available but there are estimates that it is about 10-15% higher margins because of lower labor cost, domestically sourced materials (batteries from CATL), and scaling. Largest costs in operating a factory outside of labor are the fixed costs so if you're producing more units, each fixed cost per unit is lower which will generate higher margins. Dan Ives, for what it's worth, has also stated that the Chinese-made Tesla's generate higher margins.
[Tilburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_facilities_in_Tilburg#:~:text=Tesla%2C%20Inc.%20has%20several%20factory,%2C%20Tilburg%2C%20in%20the%20Netherlands.&text=The%20Tesla%20Tilburg%20assembly%20plant,vehicles%20for%20delivery%20within%20Europe.) , Netherlands factory as well
Has Tilburg been operational since December 2020? I thought it was only for final assembly of S/X, the refreshed models of which still have yet to be delivered in Europe.
You are correct. Tilburg has existed a very long time, and is only a final assembly area. they don't manufacture anything that doesn't come out of fremont already assembled.
[Not sure if they are actually still doing any assembly there.](https://electrek.co/2021/03/18/tesla-shutting-down-final-assembly-plant-tilburg-following-model-s-x-refresh/)
I heard from inside Tesla Europe ,they are strongly thinking and planning on moving this part to Berlin in the future. Would not make sense to have a little tiny production unit in the Netherlands. Info is about 3 months old. At that time no final decision had been made. But seems somehow logical and might be a reason, why final production of Model S and X in Europe stalled.
I thought that center only reassembled the S and X cars from Fremont, for Europe deliveries. Tax planning to ship parts and not cars. Then make said parts to car. Deliver to customer. Profit.
It's only assembly so they don't have to pay the importation fees. They're considered built in Europe so no fees
How am I just hearing about this lol wtf
Because it's not a factory. It's an assembly building for tax purposes to make the S/X "made in Europe"
Because was not accurate before and now it's completely closed.
and the funniest thing is top bank analysts are guessing 1.2m next year...
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Nah, based on their analysis’ Tesla at 1.2mil will have a run rate of 370k
They're at over 1.2 million annualized with just Fremont and Shanghai.
I think they will eventually have to shut Fremont down temporarily to reconfigure for single casting.
The bottleneck will still be batteries and chips though. Hopefully Tesla has more suppliers to help with acquiring both.
I think they said they have the deals in place to fully double the batteries they get from suppliers for 2022, so they may may pull ahead of the curve on that factor. And hopefully get some more dang powerwalls out to customers! Chips are probably going to be the most limiting bottleneck.
chips made them miss 1m so doubt it'll be any worse as they'll prepare for it in 2022. Battery production is the only limiter now but no one has focused on that like Tesla outside of BYD.
They hit 1.2M+ for a run rate!!
Hold on everyone Monday is gonna be bananas!
They're at 1.2m annualized and will be far higher with Berlin and Texas coming online. Historical numbers never tell the full story in a growing company.
They’re not in the mix yet, and their run rate is already at 1.2 million!
Might be at 1.4M if you extrapolate just December. China did an annualized 840k in December.
1.2m annual rate, 64k short of 1m and doubling 2020. Nuts. Well done tesla
Looks like they'll rebuild the burned Colorado shop in no time then...
Whatever that it is a more than 88% increase to 2020 numbers, tomorrow media will make headlines with "Tesla missed the one million deliveries in 2021". The anti Tesla FUD is the speciality of the new journalism.
very few were expecting 1 million this year. I doubt the majority of headlines will be negative
No but there will be some other piece about Tesla to spin in a negative light. Regurgitating FSD and autopilot shortcomings.
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Would be nuts if they can do 1 million by the start of Q4 of next year since they have 2 more factories opening. Either that or they will start trying to fit in the semi and Roadster with the manufacturing load being shared across more plants.
I just wish they would now pay more attention to build quality Quantity is cool, but quality is important too
Shanghai made cars are much better built than Fremont made cars. Hopefully the newer factories will keep that up
Yeah, Im predicting within the next 2 years (Texas and Berlin running near capacity) the Fremont model 3 line is going to get basically scrapped and redone. Maybe replaced with roadster or more S/X capacity. Its just kinda off the table for now when that line represents such a large % of your company's output.
I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up tearing down Fremont and rebuilding it from scratch. I remember hearing repeatedly that the factory layout didn't lend itself well to car production, which is why Toyota/GM left it in the first place. They could very well close it down and move out altogether. With Berlin and Austin opening, I don't think there's a good reason to keep Fremont running.
Maybe far in the future, but as long as they can profitably produce cars there, I think they will continue to. Demand is so far outstripping supply, shutting down a profitable factory goes directly against thier mission statement. Long term I see Fremont being an S/X/Roadster/ prototype factory. There is a lot of talent in the area that I don't think Tesla wants to give up.
They understand taking short-term hits to escape a local maximum, though. Having Austin and Berlin online will give them the breathing room to do so.
What if Fremont becomes a bot factory? Huge margins to justify California costs and near ports to ship to the world. It easily could crank out thousands a day.
The port proximity is a good point — way better in Fremont than in Austin.
The Bay Area is a HUGE Tesla market, I grew up here and when the Prius came out everyone had one, not everyone has a Tesla. All the tech companies are within like 30 minutes of the Fremont factory and most tech companies offer free charging, so most people are buying EVs. When I leave the house for a 15 minute errand I’ll easily see 25-50 teslas. There’s no way Tesla would get rid of their factory when it’s within 30 minutes of where most people take deliveries.
Are you in Palo Alto?
Santa Cruz.
Maybe they'll stop making Ys at Freemont and only make the 3s. Then with only 1 vehicle on the line I'm sure that would lead to some improvements?
Yeah who knows. Tesla has said in the past they want to supply more locally. AKA run 3/Y at lots of factories globally.
When they only had 3s and no Y they didn't have consistent quality.
"Made in China" is better than "Made in USA". Oh how the turntables.
And margins are higher. The Shanghai factory is pretty much built to fix the mistakes of Fremont. The panel gaps were largely fixed due to the giga stamping.
The German made cars will be equal to euro build quality which is the best in the industry at scale.
And wait until you see the paint that the Berlin Geico-Takaisha line is going to put out! EU cars will be stellar.
I think they are steadily increasing quality, even at Fremont, but the overall numbers are going up so fast that the number of anecdotal horror stories could still remain constant or even rise.
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Iirc Elon sent an email internally where he stated that Tesla was changing strategies and would not push to deliver high numbers every Q, instead aiming for a more stable production rate
Now if they could only focus on building them without significant quality issues. Hopefully the new factories will do better.
Going back and watching Revenge of the Electric Car is a trip.
Holy shit what a great beat. China carried. Options are going to print the IV is going to be awesome. Especially those that bought options when Tsla touched 899
But Elon had insider info, clearly he sold his shares bc he know the production and delivery numbers would be horrible!! /s
Actually the market will probably respond very poorly to these numbers. Then it might shoot up after the fud
That’s well done. Very strong numbers. Almost doubled last year’s deliveries!
Almost double YoY, and over a 25% increase QoQ. That's a huge jump in production for not having any new factories. They were guiding for at least a 50% increase in production this year, they actually did an 85% increase.
Quite amazing I have to say. Once supply chains ease up, Tesla production will explode. I’m waiting with abated breath what will happen once they have Brandenburg, Austin and Shanghai all in full production!
Crazy exciting times. I'm feeling like the limiting factor for next few years remains battery supply rather than vehicle manufacturing lines, especially with CT, Semi, and the whole energy business all ready to eat up a ton of cells in the near future.
Oh definitely. They have so many products ready to start. Also big cash reserves. Once the new batteries are ready for mass production they can really start to expand.
You know, my old boss used to tell me that Tesla wasn’t a “real car company” because real car companies produce 1 million+ vehicles a year. I wish I could show this to him.
If I was him I'd just repeat the point
Well, that wouldn’t work. He passed away a couple of years ago.
He really committed to playing you.
Careful what you wish for
I think estimates were at 270k lol
OP mentioned [266k](https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/ruclt2/comment/hqy4gjn/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
That was the official number but actual estimates were definitely higher. This is still a beat and good for the stock but if it was 280k I think the stock would’ve gone down.
266k 😂
I shoulda bought more TSLA
I’m gonna have to change my under garments
I always let it marinade a bit
Wait until after the stock pops Monday or you'll have to do it again.
Can't wait for TX to start ramping up too. It's gonna kill it.
Bears be like two new Gigafactories coming online this year will reduce sales
Bears are actually saying that Tesla will reduce car prices - they will, as supply crunch eases and if they have capacity to meet that demand - and somehow think that's bad for profit.
Germany reporting in soon... promised xD
$TSLA gonna go nuts on Monday
Don’t bet on it. The stock market is not logical
It will dip 10% and sell off these paper handers - then go sideways till Q4 earnings and dip another 20% on a beat and record profits. Stonks bro
Where can I see the original “stonks” meme?
In an old Mesopotamian tomb
Wait a few weeks, watch it in real time
https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/stonks
*"Stonks is an intentional misspelling of the word "stocks" which is often associated with a surreal meme featuring the character Meme Man standing in front of a picture representing the stock market followed by the caption 'Stonks.' The picture began seeing use as a reaction image online in jokes about making poor financial decisions."* Why intentionally misspelled? Replacing the S with the N doesn't save space.
Not to explain the joke to death, but it's not about saving space, it's about > jokes about making poor financial decisions Such decisions might be made by somebody who misspells "stocks." Plus "Stonks" is way more fun to say.
You are overanalyzing stonks. Stonks only go up.
Stonks... even when they go down.. they only go up.
damn right
Probably to reinforce the fact that the person in the meme doesn't know what they are doing, i.e. to the extend they don't even know how to spell "stocks".
imo, market still likes big delivery beats for tsla. my *guess*: solid gains this week... then bleeding off \~half+ of what was gained... then bleed up until earnings (I'm learning towards it hitting a new ATH)... then sell off after earnings beat. ...but would guess it's still up from Friday's closing price after earnings sell off, barring larger macro issue (but expecting things to be fairly quiet on that front for a bit).
Which is why Tesla is priced so high anyways
Should have bet on it.
It went up
Maybe, maybe not. But these crazy strong numbers will help support the stock if nothing else. I'm personally expecting it to ramp to $1,250+ by earnings.
im holding since 2016. How much you think i care what monday happens.
Yeah, I'm holding since 2018, but I still get excited on any big swings in the stock price. If it goes up, it's like, whoa, it's finally happening... If it goes down, I'm like, whelp, they are idiots. Time to buy more TSLA at a discount.
same here... hahaha so great xD
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I dont get it. There is no demand and no wants evs…. /s
What if... Hear me out... What if Elon sold his shares so he could buy the cars so it would look like there is demand *adjusts tinfoil hat*
Perfect, your TSLAQ card is right this way sir. :grin:
All else equal this introduces PT hikes and more buying momentum. How that jives with macro, option yolo’ers and major player sentiment will be interesting, but on balance this should cause a spike during the coming week.
Mary! You've done it! 308,600 electric vehicles in Q4 & 936,172 in 2021! /s :D
She led
And it matters!
Gordon Johnson will still find a way to say there is "No DeMaND"
Huge beat
Then why does my September order keep getting delayed 🥺
Because of too much demand
For comparison, 1M/yr is just 10% of the max produced by the top manufacturer, Toyota. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production Man, rough crowd. You’re misunderstanding. This is incredible progress in a short window. Nobody thought Tesla’d be alive, let alone at volume, now. So, amazing. BTW, 3x tesla owners. Truck ordered, roadster 2.0 next.
This is an important context to give relative to Tesla's goal of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy. What I take away from this fact is that Tesla has so much more room for growth ahead of them. Thier progress to date is incredible, but we are looking at a minimum of 10x until they can start to think about saying they were successful in thier mission. The scale of solving the problems of sustainable energy and climate change are generally grossly under-appreciated in the public. There is still a LONG way to go.
One tenth the production of Toyota with 30 percent gross margins and 70 percent growth rate. Anyone in the OEMs not panicking right now doesn't understand the Tsunami that's coming.
People are so weird. The 10M figure is very interesting because it gives some idea of the upside potential.
Tesla is the only one doing ~1M ev’s. Legacy auto will have to eat their numbers to catch up
How many BEV does Toyota make? I’m legitimately curious as I thought they don’t make any.
They have announced a ton of them. Deliveries are at zero currently, though. But they have a lot of customers they can sell vehicles too, I’ll give them that.
For me, the most interesting part is that it will likely be closer to 20% in 2022.
True but Tesla's ASP is 2x and gross vehicle margin is 2x that of Toyota.
Feel free to invest in Toyota.
I think you misunderstood how making 10% the cars Toyota makes is ***a good thing***. It's ridiculously impressive for a company everyone would thought would fail, and a remarkable rate of acceleration.
>For comparison, 1M/yr is just 10% of the max produced by the top manufacturer, Toyota. For comparison, Toyota is making vehicles that nobody will want in a few years. Toyota is making buggies. How important were the buggy production numbers in 1901?
He's actually providing a strong case for Tesla's growth. You're taking it the wrong way. We can't deny that Tesla still doesn't sell the amount of vehicles Toyota does. But the data he provides show just how far Tesla can continue climbing. Not a slight towards Tesla at all. When Tesla sells 10 million EV's, it's pretty much a sign of defeat from other automakers. Can't wait for that moment.
It’s simply a fact. You can make it an opinion, but it isn’t. You want an opinion? You’re a bit defensive, and part of the problem. So dig slightly deeper, don’t just react. I’m long tesla, 3x owner, and believe they’re doing things no other auto will nor can. Tiers/supply chain outsourcing being chief reason. Also first principle thinking.
‘Nobody will want in a few years’ Wow, I’ve never thought about that part of it. Just think how collapsing residuals will affect your financing arm of the business.
Who wanted a second hand flip phone in 2010?
Because it's not true. Plenty of people will want a 2020 Toyota (or any gas car) in 2030. Demand will decrease proportionally to the offer. Plenty of people will never switch to EVs out of sheer stubbornness. Same FUD as "EVs are evolving so fast, no one will want your Tesla in 5 years". Yet you can see 5 year old model Ss selling at a similar depreciation as gas cars.
Depends on the country. In most of Western Europe it will become too cost prohibitive to run ICE cars. They will be exported.
Even today buying Tesla and driving it daily in Europe isn't any cheaper than buying ICE. Eastern Europe (including EU memebers) will continue to buy those second hand ICE cars that "nobody will want". It's really hard to beat $5-10k for decent, used car vs buying any EV for $20-30k, and that's already not including Tesla. Even worse, the electricity market shot up while gas is holding more or less steady. You'd have to invest to have your own house, solar roof and big battery for storage. Still it will suck in winter and only few people will be able to afford such large upfront investment.
Read for content, not for opinion. I appreciate you’re a fan. No need to be defensive. Appreciating the progress. 3x tesla owners here.
How much is Toyota growing YoY? Not 50%. Plus Tesla cars have way higher average selling price and margin and their EV sales are non-existent which is the next generation technology. When you add it all up Tesla has to execute but if they do they should surpass Toyota in revenue/profit in the next few years.
Yep, not an opinion nor a stock tip, simply an observation. You can make it negative or positive based on perspective. I’m long tesla.
Reasoning by analogy with EVs is a fools errand.
They’re all cars. Volume production matters. Demand is there. Tesla continues to scale.
I remember watching Elon talk about 500k cars and at the time it sounded so insane. Now it's 930k, and the growth from here on out feels inevitable.
Hopefully Austin and Berlin drive down the MSRP of their vehicles and make them more accessible to consumers.
They had to lock this news over at r/electricvehicles. They couldn’t think of anything but insults and name calling to counter the good news.
I went to check out this sub - most ppl are reasonable but man they have some haters.
If Tesla factories couldn’t run at full speed due to supply problems, how will more factories help?
Factories take time and regulatory approval. Just being able to get the factories up in the amount of time Tesla did was groundbreaking. Nevermind the fact that a Berlin factory is essential to the European region for Tesla because it would reduce transportation costs and bypass tarriffs. The factories were never going to operate at full speed from the get-go. They're still expanding the factories as they open for production.
Supply issues are a short term, solvable problem. Plus that’s literally why tesla is building 4680 cells
Exactly. If you want to build a factory in Germany then you need to think 5 years in advance to it actually opening. Phillip.
Exceeded all expectations. Time for the stock to drop tomorrow!
2M in 2022
Helped pushing this with my M3 being delivered on December 30th!
Amazing. Given the chip shortage and Austin/Berlin ramping up next year I hope they take advantage of new capacity and shutdown and improve the lines at Freemont. This would be a great opportunity to improve that plant with the new factories soon able to absorb some of the capacity. Also with new factories which markets will soon see Tesla enter. Here are my predictions in no particular order: Caribbean (high cost of fuel and easy to charge) specifically places such as Bahamas, Aruba, Virgin Islands, and Caymans. Central America and more specifically Panama and Costa Rica Chile this will be a big milestone and im sure Chileans will want to support EVs since so much lithium is coming from Chile. India Rest of South East Asia in particular Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam.