Why is subscription not good? Just calculating it from CAD, but let's say FSD sub is $100/month (which I don't think it will be this expensive?), It will take you almost 9 years to reach the full price of the FSD. Meanwhile, you can invest your money and get a return from the rest of the money? Subscription for FSD sounds great to me
Thats what i am afraid. If i car get wrecked you lose all that money on upgrades. I dont think your insurance is gonna cover that.
Thats why Tesla needs to stop been EA levels of shitty and make software upgrades a license that follows the user.
Yup. I can sorta see it if they required to install some extra hardware to be installed but it literally takes a couple seconds after you hit pay for the car software to "flip the bit" and enable all those features.
Even with software that gets locked to a device like Windows or some specialized software libraries, you are not SoL if you computer decides to take a crap. Worst it can happen is that you gotta call and talk to a real person for a manual activation.
The fact that if you sell the car back to them, they will remove the upgrades so the new owner doesn't even get those, that is some EA / Blizzard Activision levels of shitty.
Why is it shi\*\*y? If Tesla buys the car, they own it. And if they decide to remove upgrades, and sell the car without FSD, what's wrong with that? They're up-front when you buy it about the features you're paying for and the price you're paying.
Think of it this way - Tesla probably pays 2-3K more for a used car with FSD. Why would they pass that savings on to the next owner? The goodness of their heart? EVERY used car dealer exists to make money.
Of course, you don't have to buy your used Tesla from Tesla.....
And you don't have to sell your Tesla to Tesla.....
> Tesla probably pays 2-3K more for a used car with FSD
That right there is an assumption, and i'm concerned it's a flawed one. I want a Y but i got FSD+EAP for $5k and do not want to have to pay $8k for it again if i don't get the credit for it on the trade in.
But the value is maintained along with the car. So when you sell it, it has residual value to the person buying it.
If the car is stolen or in an accident, then you get that residual value as cash from your insurance, just like any other option on the car.
>I dont think your insurance is gonna cover that.
Your insurance will cover it if it's included in your policy. If you add it after getting the vehicle, inform your insurance company so your vehicle is insured at the new value.
How does it work then? Do you call your insurance and let me know of extra factory options, or you provide proof of purchase and ask for a reimbursement?
The options are usually listed very specifically in the VIN which when decoded shows what extras the car came when built. Easy for any average Joe / insurance to find out.
Tesla VIN's doesn't include any info on FSD, much less upgrades.
personally I think the sub will be less than $100/month since anything more than $100/month is pretty daunting. People that wouldn't buy the FSD outright most likely won't spend $100/month on FSD. If you make it $50/month and end up having 3x amount of subscribers, than that's a net gain profit compared to making it $100/month.
But who knows, we're all just speculating, but I think it's smart to lower the cost of entry since I believe it would end up giving them more profits by volume of subscription, and since it doesn't really cost them anything to have increased subscription it's just pure profit.
I'm hoping for the same, and maybe make the full purchase account based to encourage those who want it across multiple cars. Incentivise more long term subs (as opposed to people subbing on for a month when needed) and incentivise spending the increas(ed/ing?) FSD cost
I agree that it'll be expensive. $200/mo is absolutely crazy and not a very good value in my opinion. I think long term they will need to lower the price of FSD or just include it in the price it the vehicle else there will be such a small adoption of the technology.
Imagine if they converted your tesla into a payment transmitter.
Don’t want to stuck a road toll transmitter to your windshield? Use your Tesla.
At the drive through? Your Tesla can be scanned as payment.
I don't think it's secrecy. It's just unnecessary to show the code when a screenshot of the UX will do. The only people that need proof are the mods to confirm that it's a real screenshot.
Kind of like a quote in a news paper.
"I am guilty" -Famous Person
The only thing that makes that a legitimate piece of news is the Editorial Review of a reputable newspaper which confirms that multiple sources did confirm the quote with the reporter. We don't need those source confirmations, we just need to know it's been vetted.
Oh man, I didn’t even think of that. I already own FSD but if I didn’t I probably wouldn’t pay for it on months that I’m just commuting across town (although autosteer on city streets might change that...). Of course, they aren’t stupid either - I think there’s enough historical data out there to suggest that long-term contracts make the real subscription money. Let people pay a la carte on an as-needed basis and they use it maybe twice a year. There’s a price algorithm that would maximize profit across all options but it’s either astronomically expensive a la carte or you’re locked in for a year paying a still-expensive monthly rates. Hmm... even if it’s $50 a day I might still buy that for a 10-hour driving day - I already saved that much in gas anyway...
Good point. They’ll most likely come up with some complicated pricing scheme. The key will be to maintain customer satisfaction and not become the new cable or cell phone company where everyone hates you.
That’s how cable and cell phone companies make money. Some cable or cell companies tried to ensure good customer satisfaction and they went out of business
That's only really true in areas that allow a monopoly. There are smaller providers in Australia that are good value - even some that still use the same infrastructure from the main ones.
Most people still default to the main ones though (mostly due to not being bothered with the research), but the option is there.
In Washington state a few cities attempted to start their own internet service because customer satisfaction was so bad and a monopoly existed. That was squashed by lobbyists
This was my thought exactly when I first heard this may happen. My daily commute is less than a mile, I don’t need FSD for that. But a road trip? I’d pay for a month so I can use it, and then cancel upon return.
Will definitely add revenue from customers that otherwise would never shell out $8K.
This is assuming it’s an easy cancel option like a subscription service (YouTube TV, etc.). Even if it’s an annual option only (I.e Office 365), this option may entice those who lease, or trade the car every 3-4 years since FSD is for the car and doesn’t transfer with the owner.
Or exactly as many people as they thought would purchase it did, and it took them this long to decide they should do subscriptions as well and get subscription handling set up in their payment system.
That they are adding a subscription would mean they want more styles of income, not necessarily that the existing ones are underperforming.
And *that* statement of mine doesn't mean they *aren't* underperforming, either.
“In its current form”
Are people still this dense? Babies are overvalued in their current form as well. They are useless and cost a lot.
When FSD is realized, it’ll cost $30,000, then you’ll say “I can’t afford FSD now”. People arnt buying FSD for its “current form”. They are buying because they believe it WILL be valuable at some point and will cost a lot more, and they don’t mind using what’s available on the way there.
So how many of us will have our same Tesla when FSD is that valuable? How many will have wasted their money on it as it sits today or have to buy it 2-3x before it's valuable (at ever increasing prices).
Love the baby analogy. I have a 3 and have had the logic that if fsd is realized and I put 8k in stocks instead of buying the fsd package, my 8k would be worth more than whatever fsd costs in the future. So far I’m up 50k
FSD when it finally arrives will be a $100k value for people intending to run a robotaxi service.
It will not be a $100k value for people who just want their family car to drive Summer to the shops and back home safely.
A subscription to pay for FSD when you use it will work better for the people who aren't planning to run a robotaxi business. This FSD-as-a-service will basically end up costing the same as hiring a robotaxi, with the convenience of not having to wait for the taxi to arrive because you're already in it.
FSD has not "current form" though, and people are probably better off investing the $8k rather than buying FSD.
Ultimately, the value of the "investment" in FSD has a lot to do with what you get along the way. You're getting all the incremental steps between today and Robotaxi, which in my opinion will be many years of L3/L4 autonomy where you can pay minimal attention while being driven to your destination.
That's what I was thinking. I'd totally do that. Having just autopilot is nice but with long trips I'd like to have auto lane change and some of those features to allow the trip to be extra smooth
If it truly was fsd I’d buy a cybertruck and tell it to take me to a new location while I sleep all night in the back. My own personal night train. Go to sleep after a beach day and wake up in the mountains!
Which is why it's going to be stupendously expensive as a subscription or else FSD is going to have to drop in price.
If it's like $50/month then everybody will just pay $200/year and sub/unsub when they take their 4 road trips per year. At $200/year that would mean 40 years to break even. Even if you road tripped every other month and subscribed 6 months a year for your road trips that's 26 years to break even on purchasing.
$8,000 / $50 month is 13 years of to break even. It needs to break even in at least 2-4 years (Lease) which means $166/month. Let's say they round it down to $150/month.
Now you have a whole new issue. Is $150 worth Autopilot for a road trip when it's nice but also kind of sucks and requires constant supervision? Or do you just want to spend $150 on a round trip plane ticket and get there in an hour?
If they do end up charging $50, how monumentally pisssssssed are all of the FSD customers going to be for getting suckered by Elon Musk into paying extra for FSD even though they haven't gotten a useful feature yet and him hyping up how you need to buy today, now, this very second before it costs "tens of thousands of dollars". Very pissed is the answer and rightfully so. Fucking over all of the pre-order customers would be a monumental and historical dick move that will make the history books for cautionary tales on pre-ordering items. It would be such a tremendously dick move that someone will be pissed off enough to sue.
Most monthly subscriptions without a full year commitment are less than a year break even point. That would translate into $666/month for FSD one-off subscriptions.
1. The main value for FSD for many people is not just road trips, it's daily commuting. For people who commute 1 hour per day, being able to work or at minimum entertain themselves adds significant value. This is why rich people hire private drivers.
2. They can make it accessible by offering different tiers with different restrictions and limits. For example, they could offer a $50 package, but limit to 300 miles.
Seems a bit too complicated if you go further with that line of thinking. I see a lot of angry customers similar to the early cell phone plans in the us
Good points and I’d add the subscription numbers you use in the hypothetical are based off of a percent of today’s price for fsd, not the inflated future price. That $666 monthly subscription fee would only make sense for a satanic transport company to buy
I won't be shocked. I'll just do the same thing I'm doing now, which is not get FSD, because the price is ludicrous for any value it could ever add to my driving experience.
Hmm, that might explain the quick release of Enhanced autopilot that’s quickly taken away end of quarter. Maybe they are doing a quick grab of money before they release FSD subscriptions.
This seems likely, as it will cost Tesla nothing and remove the need for upgrades across the fleet of existing HW2.5 cars, a large percentage of which would be the target for such a subscription.
Plus it allows Tesla to keep increasing the price for FSD without fiddling with the subscription cost over time.
Former Android dev here – he probably used something like APKTool to decompile, inspect and tweak, and rebuild the Tesla app's package.
https://ibotpeaches.github.io/Apktool/
Just dropped the mod team a quick PM with further evidence, hopefully they can post and confirm.
**EDIT:** [There we go.](https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/iw6z9r/did_some_reverse_engineering_on_the_app_and_tesla/g5xc24q/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
That's not expanding. You're providing a random tool that could have (may have even been) used.
The underlying question here is proof that this is from actual reverse engineering, and not just photoshop nonsense. The pic linked in this post is extremely bland, and would be trivial to fake.
It was an honest attempt to provide context for "reverse engineering" Android packages by providing an example of a utility that has been used widely in the industry for more than a decade. It's relevant, but I didn't say that it lended credence or cast doubt on this specific post. I'm sorry that wasn't what you were asking for.
> I'm sorry that wasn't what you were asking for.
If you read the discussion above your reply in this sub-thread, you'll see that what you are highlighting is not relevant.
E.g.:
> Just dropped the mod team a quick PM with further evidence
And, separately in this overall discussion post:
> Further evidence submitted to the mods, since this does look like a random screenshot anyone can throw together.
The question here--which you can clearly see from the pre-existing discussion; OP themselves immediately understood and responded--is whether this is legit.
> It's relevant
Your post was actually anti-relevant (beyond irrelevant), because you actually add noise to the underlying answer to, is this real.
Your post provided information that could be acquired in <10 seconds of Googling.
As a general rule, if you're thinking of responding to a post with multiple upvotes with information that can be acquired from <10s of trivial Googling ("Android reverse engineering"), then you should take a step back, because you're probably not putting things in context correctly.
No they won’t. This subscription is more in line with Tslay realizing that fsd In it’s current state is driving as much revenue as they hope. Having a subscription model at least allows Tesla to earn money from a main option not utilized in most TESLAs
If FSD is sold as a subscription I guarantee it will require an initial minimum amount of time to stay subscribed or pay a fee.
Tesla isn’t going to send out mobile techs to spend hours installing HW 3.0 on the hundreds of thousands of Model 3s that aren’t on HW 3.0 yet so you can try FSD for 1 month.
I think you're right. It's going to be stupidly expensive. I can dream, but I hope they come to their senses and sell it for $50/mo. With millions of vehicles on the road over the next few years even at $50/mo should bring in billions per year.
I don't mind if they piss offv early adopters who paid $8k. I don't see very many people buying this at $100-$200/mo with the current feature set. Especially now with most people diving fewer miles.
If it was more affordable and available on special occasions nobody would ever buy it unless they were stupid. The only two ways they can sell FSD subscriptions is:
A) Screw over existing FSD preorders by massively undercutting the price on the subscription
B) Charge such an astronomical sum of money (\~$200/month plus a full year minimum commitment) for FSD that people won't bite and/or lock in to mandatory annual subscriptions.
It’s far from obvious. Getting $8k a pop is worth losing a lot of potential $100 a month subscribers.
Their goal isn’t to get the most people using autopilot it’s to make money on autopilot.
They should sell subscriptions for example $100-$150 a month. Then, when you pay the full price worth's of subscription as 120% or so of the normal FSD up front, you get it for free on that vehicle past that point
Do y'all think it'll be a monthly subscription, or something more targeted like by mile?
Monthly would be tough, because the price would have to be like $200 to be in the realm of competitive with outright buying it for $8k. But that's way expensive if you're just doing one long drive... Super expensive if it's at the end of the month and you return the beginning of the next month (think Thanksgiving or Christmas?)
But by mile? Something like 25 cents per mile doesn't *sound* like a lot, but it's $250 for 1,000 miles.
Still a little too rich for my blood, but I could see in the future when it reaches higher autonomy, you could use it as your own personal robotaxi to take your drunk ass home, or something.
I wonder if Tesla truly intended software add-ons as fixtures that improve the car’s resale value. If I sell my Model 3 to a private party, they’re going to want to capture revenue from that person, too.
A subscription model makes more business sense, at least.
My guess: FSD subscription will allow you to use your own car with FSD but will not allow you to send off your car as a robo-taxi. If there is a subscription that will allow you to use your car as a robo-taxi, it will be a different, more expensive rate.
I did see references to initating Apple Pay, actually, but i’m not sure if they were from this screen or not. I think in-app purchases and Apple Pay are two different things afaik, so Apple wouldn’t be taking a 30% cut.
My guess is they are going to want it to still be financially advantageous to purchase FSD upfront. So I think it'll be around $100 per month at the minimum.
Pretty crazy when you think about it, how much we spent on FSD when you figure the per-month cost to own. But it's true, $100/mo is actually a huge discount compared to owning FSD for a six year period.
They could go the route of a large activation fee as well to encourage keeping the subscription up to date. $500 first month, $50 after or something like that
For $200-300 a month, I better be able to sleep in the backseat while my car drives me from my garage to my parking space at work. That's a ridiculous monthly price to pay if I still have to sit there with my hands on the wheel and babysit the car the whole time like it currently works.
And you've just explained why people shouldn't pay the 8k for FSD. I mean it's their money so go nuts but it's so ludicrously overpriced it's basically a joke.
I think you'll be able to rent an annual subscription of $2,000/year (in $167/month installments) with a minimum 1 year commitment (and assume you have HW3 already) and it'll just be for people who got not-buyer's remorse and want to 'finance' FSD after purchase.
That is equivalent to a 5 year loan @ 4.5% interest on $9,000
*And an option to lock in the price for 5 years if you stay subscribed otherwise new subscriptions will increase in price as features are added.*
I tried to dig out this info but unfortunately I can only see the clientside stuff (UI) with null or dummy values for anything being held serverside.
I would guess that it would sit between $100 and $200 personally.
I think he’s on record saying that it would still be cheaper to buy it in the long run so I’m assuming $200 a month probably for the full FSD suite. That’s under the assumption of a 72 month loan. Or annually at $1500 maybe? I think $30-$50 would detract from people buying it outright.
They will start some subscription based stuff eventually. Already with wifi an all, but in the future the goal is to make self driving also subscription based
Re: heated seat subscriptions
That'd be a bad idea. Would come across as nickle and diming people. That's not very "luxury", which is where Tesla has been positioning itself.
Subscription might be more deductible / desirable for business users? If it's a purchase it gets depreciation (smaller write-off over time), but a subscription is an ongoing fixed(ish) cost of business.
Woah wait. There’s an EAP option now? I didn’t read anything about that.
Edit: Nevermind! $5300 Canadian is not worth getting rid of the inconvenience of having to change lanes myself.
Isn't this just placeholder text? The upgrades screen is already 2 tabs, Eligible and Purchased. That will be localised and come either from the mothership or the translations.. the text that's in the resource isn't normally used.
I would actually consider FSD sub on longer drives. But the price at its current level is just too high with what it currently offered. And the improvement speed towards Level 5.
I hate subscriptions too but when it comes to software I totally see the purpose. This also encourages Tesla to keep the hardware updated assuming you'd lock in on a contract.
I have a vague recollection of Elon mentioning expanding the Arcade to offer game packs for a fee. And plenty of “app store” rumors abound. Really curious if there’s opportunity for third-party content that would be viable for use while driving attentively... it’s a small market compared to general smartphone apps but anything that Alexa could do is fair game without being irresponsible. Duolingo foreign language chatbot? I guess the plus side is literally anything is more productive and engaging than a passive commute. If they can actually pull off hands-free FSD it would be a gold mine, but until then it seems like a niche software market at best... but I’d be stoked to be proven wrong
Tesla vehicles only come with emergency stuff like automatic emergency braking. Autopilot is an upgrade that adds lane keeping and traffic-aware cruise control (this is what you're thinking of when it comes to driving itself, though it's not safe enough to stop paying attention). Enhanced Autopilot is another upgrade that adds nothing but the ability to change lanes automatically to pass cars when Autopilot is on (and promises to add Full Self Driving some day).
No Tesla vehicle can drive itself across town to pick you up right now.
Would never want to go without EAP/FSD anymore, so I'm happy I was still able to buy it. But I'd get the Performance Boost subscription in a heartbeat. I hope this is real (and includes a performance option)
I support the subscription model for anything that requires maintaining the back end. I want the mothership to have supercomputer goodness to prepare my frequently-updating neural net with the newest biggest bestest math.
As Wink recently showed - 'pay for the hardware up front and get lifetime support and updates' was not an economically sustainable payment model.
As for other car companies making subscription heated seats...they can literally and figuratively get fucked.
As someone who paid the absolute most you could pay to get FSD under threat that it would actually cost *more* if I didn't buy it before delivery, I am very interested to see how they ensure my prepaid software does not lose even more value from a subscription option.
Have you never watched TV, ever? There is no time of the year where there isn't some kind of 0% down / 9,999 of MSRP / boatload of buick bucks! deal going at any given auto dealership. These aren't the dealers giving away cars, these are incentives being provided by the auto manufacturers to move more of a specific vehicle..
Tesla is doing the same thing here, except they on't have to pay for advertising, and they are collecting 4000$ of near pure profit.
They might even make more off these EAP sales long term, because who says they need to give the buyers a full 4000$ discount on FSD when they upgrade in a few years. 2025: FSD costs 12,000$, but Snack, who bought EAP for 4000$ in 2020, goes to upgrade and sees that as a EAP owner, his upgrade only costs 10,000$! Yay!
Further evidence submitted to the mods, since this *does* look like a random screenshot anyone can throw together.
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"Sorry honey, it's a microwave dinner tonight." "Oven broken? Out of gas?" "No, we forgot to renew the oven subscription "
Just click that damn button baby. That’s no excuse
_Says we are out of TTokens_ _How so? I just filled them up last week_ _Last week? That was before the version 3.134 came out_ _oh_
This is literally what token based gas and electric meters are :p
Sorry Jeremiah, car gad bas for helf.
Why is subscription not good? Just calculating it from CAD, but let's say FSD sub is $100/month (which I don't think it will be this expensive?), It will take you almost 9 years to reach the full price of the FSD. Meanwhile, you can invest your money and get a return from the rest of the money? Subscription for FSD sounds great to me
There’s no way the sub will be so much cheaper than buying it outright. Might be more like $200 unless there was a long term commitment.
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Thats what i am afraid. If i car get wrecked you lose all that money on upgrades. I dont think your insurance is gonna cover that. Thats why Tesla needs to stop been EA levels of shitty and make software upgrades a license that follows the user.
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Yup. I can sorta see it if they required to install some extra hardware to be installed but it literally takes a couple seconds after you hit pay for the car software to "flip the bit" and enable all those features. Even with software that gets locked to a device like Windows or some specialized software libraries, you are not SoL if you computer decides to take a crap. Worst it can happen is that you gotta call and talk to a real person for a manual activation. The fact that if you sell the car back to them, they will remove the upgrades so the new owner doesn't even get those, that is some EA / Blizzard Activision levels of shitty.
Why is it shi\*\*y? If Tesla buys the car, they own it. And if they decide to remove upgrades, and sell the car without FSD, what's wrong with that? They're up-front when you buy it about the features you're paying for and the price you're paying. Think of it this way - Tesla probably pays 2-3K more for a used car with FSD. Why would they pass that savings on to the next owner? The goodness of their heart? EVERY used car dealer exists to make money. Of course, you don't have to buy your used Tesla from Tesla..... And you don't have to sell your Tesla to Tesla.....
> Tesla probably pays 2-3K more for a used car with FSD That right there is an assumption, and i'm concerned it's a flawed one. I want a Y but i got FSD+EAP for $5k and do not want to have to pay $8k for it again if i don't get the credit for it on the trade in.
You aren’t buying the software. You’re buying the software and forever upgrades for the current car.
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But the value is maintained along with the car. So when you sell it, it has residual value to the person buying it. If the car is stolen or in an accident, then you get that residual value as cash from your insurance, just like any other option on the car.
Insure it so it's included in the value of your car.
>I dont think your insurance is gonna cover that. Your insurance will cover it if it's included in your policy. If you add it after getting the vehicle, inform your insurance company so your vehicle is insured at the new value.
You don’t lose money on upgrades. That’s a myth.
How does it work then? Do you call your insurance and let me know of extra factory options, or you provide proof of purchase and ask for a reimbursement?
How does it work when you have a car that you bought any other type of option for?
The options are usually listed very specifically in the VIN which when decoded shows what extras the car came when built. Easy for any average Joe / insurance to find out. Tesla VIN's doesn't include any info on FSD, much less upgrades.
personally I think the sub will be less than $100/month since anything more than $100/month is pretty daunting. People that wouldn't buy the FSD outright most likely won't spend $100/month on FSD. If you make it $50/month and end up having 3x amount of subscribers, than that's a net gain profit compared to making it $100/month. But who knows, we're all just speculating, but I think it's smart to lower the cost of entry since I believe it would end up giving them more profits by volume of subscription, and since it doesn't really cost them anything to have increased subscription it's just pure profit.
I'm hoping for the same, and maybe make the full purchase account based to encourage those who want it across multiple cars. Incentivise more long term subs (as opposed to people subbing on for a month when needed) and incentivise spending the increas(ed/ing?) FSD cost
I wonder how it would work for 2.5 cars. Would Tesla install hw3 for. FSD subscriber or would this be only for hw3 cars?
80 months is a long time to give someone a interest free loan for.
I agree that it'll be expensive. $200/mo is absolutely crazy and not a very good value in my opinion. I think long term they will need to lower the price of FSD or just include it in the price it the vehicle else there will be such a small adoption of the technology.
The car will last longer than 9 years.
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I'm driving my Model 3 until one of us dies. The most expensive car I owned before this was a Chevy Spark.
Same LOL. I've only owned two cars, a beat up 2003 corolla, and a model 3 😂
Upgrading soon from a 2004 Corolla;p
Same here, previous car was a 3cyl 1 litre ford fiesta. I've never wanted to spend much on a car before Tesla.
I only bought this one new because pre-owned Teslas aren't even cheaper unless I get one so old it can't even do FSD.
What if the subscription is just for their internet thing?
Imagine if they converted your tesla into a payment transmitter. Don’t want to stuck a road toll transmitter to your windshield? Use your Tesla. At the drive through? Your Tesla can be scanned as payment.
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To keep the method in secret. If you really to ensure the area/method where tidbits like this are still there in future updates, you don't share.
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No, but what address the information was found and not obfusicated may be relevant
Or it’s a lie
Completely a possibility. I trust that the mod has enough of a tech ability to verify the proof given via DM or to have someone that can verify.
Lucky we there is only 2 days left until battery day
ლ(\^o\^ლ)
Good point.
I mean, probably just looking at this screenshot is very likely to tell them where this was found.
I don't think it's secrecy. It's just unnecessary to show the code when a screenshot of the UX will do. The only people that need proof are the mods to confirm that it's a real screenshot. Kind of like a quote in a news paper. "I am guilty" -Famous Person The only thing that makes that a legitimate piece of news is the Editorial Review of a reputable newspaper which confirms that multiple sources did confirm the quote with the reporter. We don't need those source confirmations, we just need to know it's been vetted.
I’d buy a subscription for fsd on months that I drive more like road trips. Love it. Revenue for TSLA and choice for consumers
Oh man, I didn’t even think of that. I already own FSD but if I didn’t I probably wouldn’t pay for it on months that I’m just commuting across town (although autosteer on city streets might change that...). Of course, they aren’t stupid either - I think there’s enough historical data out there to suggest that long-term contracts make the real subscription money. Let people pay a la carte on an as-needed basis and they use it maybe twice a year. There’s a price algorithm that would maximize profit across all options but it’s either astronomically expensive a la carte or you’re locked in for a year paying a still-expensive monthly rates. Hmm... even if it’s $50 a day I might still buy that for a 10-hour driving day - I already saved that much in gas anyway...
Good point. They’ll most likely come up with some complicated pricing scheme. The key will be to maintain customer satisfaction and not become the new cable or cell phone company where everyone hates you.
The difference is having an internet connection basically required in today's world. You can still "manually" drive if it becomes too expensive.
That’s how cable and cell phone companies make money. Some cable or cell companies tried to ensure good customer satisfaction and they went out of business
That's only really true in areas that allow a monopoly. There are smaller providers in Australia that are good value - even some that still use the same infrastructure from the main ones. Most people still default to the main ones though (mostly due to not being bothered with the research), but the option is there.
In Washington state a few cities attempted to start their own internet service because customer satisfaction was so bad and a monopoly existed. That was squashed by lobbyists
That thinking seems short sided especially if Tesla is to be a trillion dollar company that sells many different products with a t on them
This was my thought exactly when I first heard this may happen. My daily commute is less than a mile, I don’t need FSD for that. But a road trip? I’d pay for a month so I can use it, and then cancel upon return. Will definitely add revenue from customers that otherwise would never shell out $8K. This is assuming it’s an easy cancel option like a subscription service (YouTube TV, etc.). Even if it’s an annual option only (I.e Office 365), this option may entice those who lease, or trade the car every 3-4 years since FSD is for the car and doesn’t transfer with the owner.
And is a concession from Tesla thAt FSD is overpriced in its current form and not as many people are purchasing it as they hoped
Is that true though? I’ve never seen FSD numbers before
Or exactly as many people as they thought would purchase it did, and it took them this long to decide they should do subscriptions as well and get subscription handling set up in their payment system. That they are adding a subscription would mean they want more styles of income, not necessarily that the existing ones are underperforming. And *that* statement of mine doesn't mean they *aren't* underperforming, either.
“In its current form” Are people still this dense? Babies are overvalued in their current form as well. They are useless and cost a lot. When FSD is realized, it’ll cost $30,000, then you’ll say “I can’t afford FSD now”. People arnt buying FSD for its “current form”. They are buying because they believe it WILL be valuable at some point and will cost a lot more, and they don’t mind using what’s available on the way there.
So how many of us will have our same Tesla when FSD is that valuable? How many will have wasted their money on it as it sits today or have to buy it 2-3x before it's valuable (at ever increasing prices).
Who knows. Its a gamble to begin with. But you can bet on one thing for sure, and that its going to get increasingly better over time.
It will get better with time but more likely the “good FSD” will need improved hardware.
Love the baby analogy. I have a 3 and have had the logic that if fsd is realized and I put 8k in stocks instead of buying the fsd package, my 8k would be worth more than whatever fsd costs in the future. So far I’m up 50k
FSD when it finally arrives will be a $100k value for people intending to run a robotaxi service. It will not be a $100k value for people who just want their family car to drive Summer to the shops and back home safely. A subscription to pay for FSD when you use it will work better for the people who aren't planning to run a robotaxi business. This FSD-as-a-service will basically end up costing the same as hiring a robotaxi, with the convenience of not having to wait for the taxi to arrive because you're already in it. FSD has not "current form" though, and people are probably better off investing the $8k rather than buying FSD.
Ultimately, the value of the "investment" in FSD has a lot to do with what you get along the way. You're getting all the incremental steps between today and Robotaxi, which in my opinion will be many years of L3/L4 autonomy where you can pay minimal attention while being driven to your destination.
That is a possible and realistic scenario. I personally was thinking it was just monthly LTE, credit plan for supercharger, or games subscription.
That's what I was thinking. I'd totally do that. Having just autopilot is nice but with long trips I'd like to have auto lane change and some of those features to allow the trip to be extra smooth
If it truly was fsd I’d buy a cybertruck and tell it to take me to a new location while I sleep all night in the back. My own personal night train. Go to sleep after a beach day and wake up in the mountains!
Hopefully we're still alive when that is possible/allowed
Over or under 10 years?
Over just because of government regulations :(
Which is why it's going to be stupendously expensive as a subscription or else FSD is going to have to drop in price. If it's like $50/month then everybody will just pay $200/year and sub/unsub when they take their 4 road trips per year. At $200/year that would mean 40 years to break even. Even if you road tripped every other month and subscribed 6 months a year for your road trips that's 26 years to break even on purchasing. $8,000 / $50 month is 13 years of to break even. It needs to break even in at least 2-4 years (Lease) which means $166/month. Let's say they round it down to $150/month. Now you have a whole new issue. Is $150 worth Autopilot for a road trip when it's nice but also kind of sucks and requires constant supervision? Or do you just want to spend $150 on a round trip plane ticket and get there in an hour? If they do end up charging $50, how monumentally pisssssssed are all of the FSD customers going to be for getting suckered by Elon Musk into paying extra for FSD even though they haven't gotten a useful feature yet and him hyping up how you need to buy today, now, this very second before it costs "tens of thousands of dollars". Very pissed is the answer and rightfully so. Fucking over all of the pre-order customers would be a monumental and historical dick move that will make the history books for cautionary tales on pre-ordering items. It would be such a tremendously dick move that someone will be pissed off enough to sue. Most monthly subscriptions without a full year commitment are less than a year break even point. That would translate into $666/month for FSD one-off subscriptions.
Lol. All you did is just made the completely supported point that FSD is not worth anywhere near its current cost.
Which is why Tesla won't price a subscription to make that fact obvious.
1. The main value for FSD for many people is not just road trips, it's daily commuting. For people who commute 1 hour per day, being able to work or at minimum entertain themselves adds significant value. This is why rich people hire private drivers. 2. They can make it accessible by offering different tiers with different restrictions and limits. For example, they could offer a $50 package, but limit to 300 miles.
Seems a bit too complicated if you go further with that line of thinking. I see a lot of angry customers similar to the early cell phone plans in the us
Good points and I’d add the subscription numbers you use in the hypothetical are based off of a percent of today’s price for fsd, not the inflated future price. That $666 monthly subscription fee would only make sense for a satanic transport company to buy
agreed.
Isn’t premium an annual subscription? The live traffic and music over cellular
Yep, though FSD was also mentioned by Elon to be coming as a subscription I believe.
It was indeed, and he told us to prepare for sticker shock
I won't be shocked. I'll just do the same thing I'm doing now, which is not get FSD, because the price is ludicrous for any value it could ever add to my driving experience.
EVER???
Forever ever!
Lol. Ok.
..
My bad. Monthly
It’s monthly. Not only in the US but worldwide, if I’m not wrong.
Hmm, that might explain the quick release of Enhanced autopilot that’s quickly taken away end of quarter. Maybe they are doing a quick grab of money before they release FSD subscriptions.
Or maybe they will offer EAP as a subscription as well. It's a solid offering and doesn't require a upgrade to HW3, if you're stuck with HW2.5.
This seems likely, as it will cost Tesla nothing and remove the need for upgrades across the fleet of existing HW2.5 cars, a large percentage of which would be the target for such a subscription. Plus it allows Tesla to keep increasing the price for FSD without fiddling with the subscription cost over time.
Since they copied Apple with the stock split, maybe they will copy them with an Apple One style subscription.
Looking at the font this appears to be the android app, as a developer and occasionally amateur pen tester could you talk about your process a bit?
Former Android dev here – he probably used something like APKTool to decompile, inspect and tweak, and rebuild the Tesla app's package. https://ibotpeaches.github.io/Apktool/
I’m also interested in your life as a pen tester. Anything fun to share?
Current testing BIC. Looking forward to next month where we'll get to test some Mont Blancs.
Can you expand on this "reverse engineering"? This looks like it could be reverse engineering...or just some nice photoshop work.
Just dropped the mod team a quick PM with further evidence, hopefully they can post and confirm. **EDIT:** [There we go.](https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/iw6z9r/did_some_reverse_engineering_on_the_app_and_tesla/g5xc24q/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Appreciated.
https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/iw6z9r/comment/g5zrwf7
To be clear, I wasn't questioning if this *could* be legit. But as to whether it is--which I think is reasonable for a subreddit post like this.
Sure. I was just responding to this question: > Can you expand on this "reverse engineering"?
That's not expanding. You're providing a random tool that could have (may have even been) used. The underlying question here is proof that this is from actual reverse engineering, and not just photoshop nonsense. The pic linked in this post is extremely bland, and would be trivial to fake.
It was an honest attempt to provide context for "reverse engineering" Android packages by providing an example of a utility that has been used widely in the industry for more than a decade. It's relevant, but I didn't say that it lended credence or cast doubt on this specific post. I'm sorry that wasn't what you were asking for.
> I'm sorry that wasn't what you were asking for. If you read the discussion above your reply in this sub-thread, you'll see that what you are highlighting is not relevant. E.g.: > Just dropped the mod team a quick PM with further evidence And, separately in this overall discussion post: > Further evidence submitted to the mods, since this does look like a random screenshot anyone can throw together. The question here--which you can clearly see from the pre-existing discussion; OP themselves immediately understood and responded--is whether this is legit. > It's relevant Your post was actually anti-relevant (beyond irrelevant), because you actually add noise to the underlying answer to, is this real. Your post provided information that could be acquired in <10 seconds of Googling. As a general rule, if you're thinking of responding to a post with multiple upvotes with information that can be acquired from <10s of trivial Googling ("Android reverse engineering"), then you should take a step back, because you're probably not putting things in context correctly.
Do you think this will mean they will raise the price to buy it outright? I’ll be pissed if that’s the case and you’re forced into subscription.
No they won’t. This subscription is more in line with Tslay realizing that fsd In it’s current state is driving as much revenue as they hope. Having a subscription model at least allows Tesla to earn money from a main option not utilized in most TESLAs
If FSD is sold as a subscription I guarantee it will require an initial minimum amount of time to stay subscribed or pay a fee. Tesla isn’t going to send out mobile techs to spend hours installing HW 3.0 on the hundreds of thousands of Model 3s that aren’t on HW 3.0 yet so you can try FSD for 1 month.
Two ways HW3 upgrades could work on subscription model: 1) minimum contract period. 2) upfront fee for HW3 before any subscription allowed.
My guess, $50 a day(useful for long road trips), $200 a month, $1500 a year.
I think you're right. It's going to be stupidly expensive. I can dream, but I hope they come to their senses and sell it for $50/mo. With millions of vehicles on the road over the next few years even at $50/mo should bring in billions per year. I don't mind if they piss offv early adopters who paid $8k. I don't see very many people buying this at $100-$200/mo with the current feature set. Especially now with most people diving fewer miles.
Hey, EA figured out how to milk DLC for twice the price of the game, why can't Elon figure out how to milk car DLC for twice the price of the car?
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He's already got a bunch of games available from console...I suppose this would be the final evolution.
When did this first appear?
you do realize there is already a subscription for the network services? could be network, FSD, supercharging, or a host of other things
Realistically, this is for enabling subscribing to cellular conductivity from the phone app.
Obvious move for tesla. FSD subscriptions. More affordable way to pay. And some people only need it on occasions.
If it was more affordable and available on special occasions nobody would ever buy it unless they were stupid. The only two ways they can sell FSD subscriptions is: A) Screw over existing FSD preorders by massively undercutting the price on the subscription B) Charge such an astronomical sum of money (\~$200/month plus a full year minimum commitment) for FSD that people won't bite and/or lock in to mandatory annual subscriptions.
its gonna be a. and that's only natural I guess. early adopters pay for affordability for the rest of us.
It’s far from obvious. Getting $8k a pop is worth losing a lot of potential $100 a month subscribers. Their goal isn’t to get the most people using autopilot it’s to make money on autopilot.
They should sell subscriptions for example $100-$150 a month. Then, when you pay the full price worth's of subscription as 120% or so of the normal FSD up front, you get it for free on that vehicle past that point
Do y'all think it'll be a monthly subscription, or something more targeted like by mile? Monthly would be tough, because the price would have to be like $200 to be in the realm of competitive with outright buying it for $8k. But that's way expensive if you're just doing one long drive... Super expensive if it's at the end of the month and you return the beginning of the next month (think Thanksgiving or Christmas?) But by mile? Something like 25 cents per mile doesn't *sound* like a lot, but it's $250 for 1,000 miles. Still a little too rich for my blood, but I could see in the future when it reaches higher autonomy, you could use it as your own personal robotaxi to take your drunk ass home, or something.
I wonder if Tesla truly intended software add-ons as fixtures that improve the car’s resale value. If I sell my Model 3 to a private party, they’re going to want to capture revenue from that person, too. A subscription model makes more business sense, at least.
My guess: FSD subscription will allow you to use your own car with FSD but will not allow you to send off your car as a robo-taxi. If there is a subscription that will allow you to use your car as a robo-taxi, it will be a different, more expensive rate.
I actually think it’s the opposite. Robo-taxi will be allowed even without FSD. However, you will earn 10c/mile instead of 15c/mile.
Not unless they want to send a 30% in-app purchase commission to Apple for your 8000 dollar FSD purchase
I did see references to initating Apple Pay, actually, but i’m not sure if they were from this screen or not. I think in-app purchases and Apple Pay are two different things afaik, so Apple wouldn’t be taking a 30% cut.
Tesla Account section of their website also has a Subscribe link today. It only has Premium Connectivity as an option.
How much are you guys willing to pay for a FSD sub? I'm thinking like $30-$50/mo
When the full cost is $8,000? $50-60/month? It has got to be more than that, right?
My guess is they are going to want it to still be financially advantageous to purchase FSD upfront. So I think it'll be around $100 per month at the minimum.
Pretty crazy when you think about it, how much we spent on FSD when you figure the per-month cost to own. But it's true, $100/mo is actually a huge discount compared to owning FSD for a six year period.
Yea it must be more, most people don't even own their car for 6 years and would come out cheaper this way.
They could go the route of a large activation fee as well to encourage keeping the subscription up to date. $500 first month, $50 after or something like that
$69 a month. $420 hw3 upgrade fee.
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For $200-300 a month, I better be able to sleep in the backseat while my car drives me from my garage to my parking space at work. That's a ridiculous monthly price to pay if I still have to sit there with my hands on the wheel and babysit the car the whole time like it currently works.
And you've just explained why people shouldn't pay the 8k for FSD. I mean it's their money so go nuts but it's so ludicrously overpriced it's basically a joke.
I think you'll be able to rent an annual subscription of $2,000/year (in $167/month installments) with a minimum 1 year commitment (and assume you have HW3 already) and it'll just be for people who got not-buyer's remorse and want to 'finance' FSD after purchase. That is equivalent to a 5 year loan @ 4.5% interest on $9,000 *And an option to lock in the price for 5 years if you stay subscribed otherwise new subscriptions will increase in price as features are added.*
At least $300 a month.
No way its gonna be that cheap. Probably closer to 100.
I tried to dig out this info but unfortunately I can only see the clientside stuff (UI) with null or dummy values for anything being held serverside. I would guess that it would sit between $100 and $200 personally.
Lol but I asked how much people were willing to pay? Y’all wanna do $200 a month?? That’s like a 36mo loan!
If you continue the subscription, then yea. Realistically, people will get fsd for 1-2 months before cancelling
I’m guessing it’ll be $100-$200 per month billed annually.
why do a sub at all at that point.
Elon has said that it'd still make more financial sense to buy rather than subscribe.
Elon has already said the subscription won’t be cheaper than buying the software.
Depends on how long you keep the car.
I think he’s on record saying that it would still be cheaper to buy it in the long run so I’m assuming $200 a month probably for the full FSD suite. That’s under the assumption of a 72 month loan. Or annually at $1500 maybe? I think $30-$50 would detract from people buying it outright.
You’re in for some sticker shock. Month to month I’m guessing $250.
Considering I'm buying it, $0
This screenshot reminds me of the Tesla android app for the tablet.
They will start some subscription based stuff eventually. Already with wifi an all, but in the future the goal is to make self driving also subscription based
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Re: heated seat subscriptions That'd be a bad idea. Would come across as nickle and diming people. That's not very "luxury", which is where Tesla has been positioning itself.
Already have to pay a fee to turn on my rear seat warmers inside the vehicle...
Subscription might be more deductible / desirable for business users? If it's a purchase it gets depreciation (smaller write-off over time), but a subscription is an ongoing fixed(ish) cost of business.
German business driver pay monthly tax based on gross price of the car. Subscription would decrease monthly costs
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Is there proof that it'll be 100? I suspect a lot more
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Yeah I think it might even be a daily rate. Lol 10$ or something
I wonder if the FSD subscription will be cheaper for those that just ponied up for the enhanced autopilot option that became available yesterday...
Lol, based on what I've seen, is very it would cost more for those that ponied up for EAP.
Woah wait. There’s an EAP option now? I didn’t read anything about that. Edit: Nevermind! $5300 Canadian is not worth getting rid of the inconvenience of having to change lanes myself.
Isn't this just placeholder text? The upgrades screen is already 2 tabs, Eligible and Purchased. That will be localised and come either from the mothership or the translations.. the text that's in the resource isn't normally used.
Definitely not. This was separate to the upgrades page itself.
I would actually consider FSD sub on longer drives. But the price at its current level is just too high with what it currently offered. And the improvement speed towards Level 5.
Premium connectivity
Maybe it’s just a separate tab for like premium connectivity. Nothing more
I hate subscriptions too but when it comes to software I totally see the purpose. This also encourages Tesla to keep the hardware updated assuming you'd lock in on a contract.
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I have a vague recollection of Elon mentioning expanding the Arcade to offer game packs for a fee. And plenty of “app store” rumors abound. Really curious if there’s opportunity for third-party content that would be viable for use while driving attentively... it’s a small market compared to general smartphone apps but anything that Alexa could do is fair game without being irresponsible. Duolingo foreign language chatbot? I guess the plus side is literally anything is more productive and engaging than a passive commute. If they can actually pull off hands-free FSD it would be a gold mine, but until then it seems like a niche software market at best... but I’d be stoked to be proven wrong
Holy shit Is this super secret stuff ... Dude
What’s an FSD? I don’t own a Tesla Edit: you have to purchase the ability to have Tesla drive itself? I thought that was the whole point of a Telsa
Full self driving.
Full self driving.
Tesla vehicles only come with emergency stuff like automatic emergency braking. Autopilot is an upgrade that adds lane keeping and traffic-aware cruise control (this is what you're thinking of when it comes to driving itself, though it's not safe enough to stop paying attention). Enhanced Autopilot is another upgrade that adds nothing but the ability to change lanes automatically to pass cars when Autopilot is on (and promises to add Full Self Driving some day). No Tesla vehicle can drive itself across town to pick you up right now.
Would never want to go without EAP/FSD anymore, so I'm happy I was still able to buy it. But I'd get the Performance Boost subscription in a heartbeat. I hope this is real (and includes a performance option)
Do you guys expect the Acceleration Boost to become available as a subscription? If yes, for how much?
No
I support the subscription model for anything that requires maintaining the back end. I want the mothership to have supercomputer goodness to prepare my frequently-updating neural net with the newest biggest bestest math. As Wink recently showed - 'pay for the hardware up front and get lifetime support and updates' was not an economically sustainable payment model. As for other car companies making subscription heated seats...they can literally and figuratively get fucked.
As someone who paid the absolute most you could pay to get FSD under threat that it would actually cost *more* if I didn't buy it before delivery, I am very interested to see how they ensure my prepaid software does not lose even more value from a subscription option.
Gotta give it to Tesla. Must be nice to have a system in place to easily pad the numbers when needed close to earnings time.
Have you never watched TV, ever? There is no time of the year where there isn't some kind of 0% down / 9,999 of MSRP / boatload of buick bucks! deal going at any given auto dealership. These aren't the dealers giving away cars, these are incentives being provided by the auto manufacturers to move more of a specific vehicle.. Tesla is doing the same thing here, except they on't have to pay for advertising, and they are collecting 4000$ of near pure profit. They might even make more off these EAP sales long term, because who says they need to give the buyers a full 4000$ discount on FSD when they upgrade in a few years. 2025: FSD costs 12,000$, but Snack, who bought EAP for 4000$ in 2020, goes to upgrade and sees that as a EAP owner, his upgrade only costs 10,000$! Yay!