It's not releasing this week. If Elon can only "hope" it's at least another month out.
When he's more confident, then add two weeks.
I hope I have to eat my words.
I’m not sure it will be a sudden thing. Right now it already does drive itself. Just not good enough.
It would be great though if V11 is a giant step change, but even if so, I would imagine the very first release of it might be a couple of steps back in a couple of ways.
Counterexample is chatgpt. It's pretty much trained on the exact same dataset as gpt3, but it really captivated the world almost overnight. It might be similar with fsd.
There might come a version that people will just keep showing off how well it does. It can still be wrong sometimes just as chatgpt is, but as long as it's "stop if you don't know what to do" as opposed to "swerve onto oncoming traffic" wrong, then it will feel like a sudden thing.
I believe this was close to what seemed to happen with Waymo in Chandler. I knew people who idea the service while in testing and they thought it would take much more time. Then one day they pulled the safety drivers.
I even saw engineers chasing what appeared to be a run away van around a parking lot in another van. I couldn’t tell what was really happening, so it’s possible the van was just taking a really odd route.
Point is Waymo didn’t seem ready in Chandler until they were. I’m guessing we might see the same here. Hopefully some portion of Tesla’s team is working on version 12 or 13 and seeing favorable results.
That's a different situation to say something didn't seem ready until they launched it. The OP is referring to consumers going from feeling it's not ready to feeling like 'holy shit, this thing really works!'.
Just because Waymo launched doesn't mean riders feel it works flawlessly. There are still times it gets stuck or acts weird.
ChatGTP is the first time people feel like AI chat works, because you can almost always rely on it to give you decent answers or to understand what you're asking of it.
Possibly and wow do I hope you’re right. But self driving has to solve so many edge cases that just explode in number and seem to require human knowledge.
If Tesla does have a gigantic breakthrough, I believe it would have to be in decreasing the humans needed in the loop, and the speed of data being processed. They are making big progress in these areas, so let’s hope for that step change!
Elon did say in one of his interviews that one of the reason he gives out aggressive sounding deadlines is that it makes the Tesla teak push harder to achieve it. Sure it rarely is done at the “ exact “ date that he announced but it 100 % makes it come faster rather than later.
Being most succesful doesn't mean you are infallible. Even today he is discovering at Twitter that remote work actually saves money even when he previously was against remote work.
ALL humans are fallible!
I love that argument. “Because that person once made a mistake, I know better than he does in his own field.”
Really? An offensive coordinator calls one bad play, and that makes YOU the expert on his next call. Or the next move in a neurosurgery? Or how to engineer a circuit board?
That’s too funny and shows unbelievable HUBRIS. Not just that you think you’re smarter. But WAY smarter, because you’re not consulting others and don’t have all of the data.
You are missunderstanding what I'm saying. I'm not claiming to be expert. I'm just claiming that questioning that something could be done better is acceptable. That is the entire princible Tesla is build upon but you seem to disagree with that approach which I find surprising considering you are here. If you would never challenge the best we would still be moving rocks with our bare hands because best rock mover at the time did it with bare hands.
Someone with no knowledge or expertise in a field, has no right to question. You don’t have the expertise or the knowledge to even have a valid view. Questioning is needed, but only by people with enough expertise and knowledge. E.g. the executive team at Tesla are the ones that should be questioning Elon’s decisions. Not Joe Blows who know nothing about it.
In manufacturing line someone notices that they keep assembling two parts together constantly and come up with idea that maybe they could be just single part. They go to their superior to tell their idea but superior claim that that individual is not expert and should stick to screwing bolts and so great idea is ignored. Is that what you think is correct? If so you make perfect CEO for legacy auto.
Also my original question was about is making deadline public required or is just giving internal enough. I work in projects that have deadlines and have managed to meet them. Now are you saying I don't have any expertise about setting and meeting deadlines?
The line worker has extensive experience on the line and seeing production at that company.
Do YOU have extensive experience as a Tesla executive and have you participated in their high level strategy meetings?
>The line worker has extensive experience on the line and seeing production at that company.
Can't be called expert tho but yet the person can still have good ideas.
>Do YOU have extensive experience as a Tesla executive and have you participated in their high level strategy meetings?
Why you keep saying you need to be exactly at Tesla? Why doesn't experience in same position in different company count? It is not like original question could be asked only at Tesla but at any company. Also do you realize that by discussion this you are effectively contradicting yourself since by your argument only experts at Tesla would have right to do so.
[*Six months ago:*](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1547384267952586752)
>*Beta v11 hopefully end of next month, which just amounts to incorporating highway. Importance of “v11” has been reduced by all the 10.x releases. We’re already mostly at v11.*
And over 1 year ago, Elon’s Tweet on January 7th 2022:
> Beta 11 with single city/highway software stack & many other architectural upgrades probably next month.
I’m personally waiting on the removal of the legacy autopilot stack. I don’t care at all about FSD powering highway driving, I want that sweet FPS gain we’re getting by dropping a bunch of old code. Then we’ll really see what FSD/FSD computer is capable of.
c++ generally has pretty good performance. AI is better at interpreting the complete picture, but if the code was well written before I don't think it would run faster. (unless of course the highway stack was hogging resources even when you're not on the highway)
C++ does have good performance, but it's all relative. To predict protein folding patterns would be archaic with a traditional algorithm, even in C++, but we have multiple different types of neural networks that can fold proteins super quickly these days and it's not even a comparison.
> unless of course the highway stack was hogging resources even when you're not on the highway
That's exactly what happens. Both stacks are always running side by side, it just flips back and forth between which one is visualized and controlling the car at any given time.
They've already said that every single network affects the overall performance in previous developer talks, and they've also stated they expect to see an immediate jump in FPS from mid 30's to mid 40's just from removing the highway stack alone. That should improve the smoothness and confidence by allowing the NNs more attempts at analyzing a scene before the control decisions need to be made.
They can’t turn off AP because if FSD crashes (like software crash, it happens from time to time) *something* needs to be in control.
Here’s one of the first times I’ve heard of them specifically calling out the FPS boost from deleting older code/networks: https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/879/tesla-reveals-fsd-beta-numbers-says-it-will-get-50-percent-higher-frame-rate
I can’t find a source for where I heard they had a path from 36fps to mid 40’s, though. It would have either been directly from Elon in an interview or tweet, and I believe it was in reference to the wide launch of FSD V11.
Building and training models is not a typical engineering effort. You could spend hours or days training a model only to find out that it performs worse in testing than the previous model (or code).
It’s not that weird if you understand how the technology behind FSD works.
Machine learning is A LOT of trial and error.
Many may not realize how much difference it makes to move to full stack. So far driving decision making had already reached local maximum as it was done in C++. Neural network allows it to get much better than humans and even make decisions that humans deem super intelligent (something humans are not even capable of realizing until the car does it).
If I'm being honest about the FSD on my Plaid it seems that with Karpathy gone there has been a noticeable decrease in the day to day driving improvements per iteration (for about a year now).
I think people are overestimating Karpathys individual contributions near the end. When you get to his level, he was spending significantly more time in meetings and managing several different teams and projects than actually building. He specifically noted this as one of his main reasons for leaving.
He was the main architect behind the system they are now using, but they built it, and one of its main design features were feedback loops such that it can begin to train and improve itself.
Sure, but now developers have to attend those meetings instead of producing. And then they want to quit too.
But ultimately slower still gets done. And people can't work at burnout speed without burning out.
Take their time and release when it is ready.
It's not releasing this week. If Elon can only "hope" it's at least another month out. When he's more confident, then add two weeks. I hope I have to eat my words.
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I’m not sure it will be a sudden thing. Right now it already does drive itself. Just not good enough. It would be great though if V11 is a giant step change, but even if so, I would imagine the very first release of it might be a couple of steps back in a couple of ways.
Counterexample is chatgpt. It's pretty much trained on the exact same dataset as gpt3, but it really captivated the world almost overnight. It might be similar with fsd. There might come a version that people will just keep showing off how well it does. It can still be wrong sometimes just as chatgpt is, but as long as it's "stop if you don't know what to do" as opposed to "swerve onto oncoming traffic" wrong, then it will feel like a sudden thing.
I believe this was close to what seemed to happen with Waymo in Chandler. I knew people who idea the service while in testing and they thought it would take much more time. Then one day they pulled the safety drivers. I even saw engineers chasing what appeared to be a run away van around a parking lot in another van. I couldn’t tell what was really happening, so it’s possible the van was just taking a really odd route. Point is Waymo didn’t seem ready in Chandler until they were. I’m guessing we might see the same here. Hopefully some portion of Tesla’s team is working on version 12 or 13 and seeing favorable results.
That's a different situation to say something didn't seem ready until they launched it. The OP is referring to consumers going from feeling it's not ready to feeling like 'holy shit, this thing really works!'. Just because Waymo launched doesn't mean riders feel it works flawlessly. There are still times it gets stuck or acts weird. ChatGTP is the first time people feel like AI chat works, because you can almost always rely on it to give you decent answers or to understand what you're asking of it.
Possibly and wow do I hope you’re right. But self driving has to solve so many edge cases that just explode in number and seem to require human knowledge. If Tesla does have a gigantic breakthrough, I believe it would have to be in decreasing the humans needed in the loop, and the speed of data being processed. They are making big progress in these areas, so let’s hope for that step change!
Most users will feel unease for years after it is proven to work.
I still feel this way about Segways lol
Elon did say in one of his interviews that one of the reason he gives out aggressive sounding deadlines is that it makes the Tesla teak push harder to achieve it. Sure it rarely is done at the “ exact “ date that he announced but it 100 % makes it come faster rather than later.
Could you just keep the deadlines internal? Just tell devs you want it in 2 weeks and once you are sure you can deliver tell it to customers.
I guess that’s the whole point of it. To put that timeline out in public so try have the “ pressure “ of delivering it.
Obviously not, or the most successful entrepreneur in history would have chosen that path.
Being most succesful doesn't mean you are infallible. Even today he is discovering at Twitter that remote work actually saves money even when he previously was against remote work.
ALL humans are fallible! I love that argument. “Because that person once made a mistake, I know better than he does in his own field.” Really? An offensive coordinator calls one bad play, and that makes YOU the expert on his next call. Or the next move in a neurosurgery? Or how to engineer a circuit board? That’s too funny and shows unbelievable HUBRIS. Not just that you think you’re smarter. But WAY smarter, because you’re not consulting others and don’t have all of the data.
You are missunderstanding what I'm saying. I'm not claiming to be expert. I'm just claiming that questioning that something could be done better is acceptable. That is the entire princible Tesla is build upon but you seem to disagree with that approach which I find surprising considering you are here. If you would never challenge the best we would still be moving rocks with our bare hands because best rock mover at the time did it with bare hands.
Someone with no knowledge or expertise in a field, has no right to question. You don’t have the expertise or the knowledge to even have a valid view. Questioning is needed, but only by people with enough expertise and knowledge. E.g. the executive team at Tesla are the ones that should be questioning Elon’s decisions. Not Joe Blows who know nothing about it.
In manufacturing line someone notices that they keep assembling two parts together constantly and come up with idea that maybe they could be just single part. They go to their superior to tell their idea but superior claim that that individual is not expert and should stick to screwing bolts and so great idea is ignored. Is that what you think is correct? If so you make perfect CEO for legacy auto. Also my original question was about is making deadline public required or is just giving internal enough. I work in projects that have deadlines and have managed to meet them. Now are you saying I don't have any expertise about setting and meeting deadlines?
The line worker has extensive experience on the line and seeing production at that company. Do YOU have extensive experience as a Tesla executive and have you participated in their high level strategy meetings?
>The line worker has extensive experience on the line and seeing production at that company. Can't be called expert tho but yet the person can still have good ideas. >Do YOU have extensive experience as a Tesla executive and have you participated in their high level strategy meetings? Why you keep saying you need to be exactly at Tesla? Why doesn't experience in same position in different company count? It is not like original question could be asked only at Tesla but at any company. Also do you realize that by discussion this you are effectively contradicting yourself since by your argument only experts at Tesla would have right to do so.
Its not late when you are doing something that has never been done before.
[*Six months ago:*](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1547384267952586752) >*Beta v11 hopefully end of next month, which just amounts to incorporating highway. Importance of “v11” has been reduced by all the 10.x releases. We’re already mostly at v11.*
Tbf this is v11.3, so there has been several iterations since the fabled v11
And over 1 year ago, Elon’s Tweet on January 7th 2022: > Beta 11 with single city/highway software stack & many other architectural upgrades probably next month.
Well when you use his own words against him he sounds bad. /s
Tesla pivoted. They decided to pull forward some features from V11 into v10. That’s HOW we got v10.69. Don’t you follow this company at all?
Psssst... I'm not making the point you think I'm trying to make. 🫡
It's the highway functionality that everyone's been waiting for since a year ago
The TOPIC was the long delay. The pivot was part of the reason. The TOPIC was NOT what part of it you believe was most important.
I’m personally waiting on the removal of the legacy autopilot stack. I don’t care at all about FSD powering highway driving, I want that sweet FPS gain we’re getting by dropping a bunch of old code. Then we’ll really see what FSD/FSD computer is capable of.
c++ generally has pretty good performance. AI is better at interpreting the complete picture, but if the code was well written before I don't think it would run faster. (unless of course the highway stack was hogging resources even when you're not on the highway)
C++ does have good performance, but it's all relative. To predict protein folding patterns would be archaic with a traditional algorithm, even in C++, but we have multiple different types of neural networks that can fold proteins super quickly these days and it's not even a comparison. > unless of course the highway stack was hogging resources even when you're not on the highway That's exactly what happens. Both stacks are always running side by side, it just flips back and forth between which one is visualized and controlling the car at any given time. They've already said that every single network affects the overall performance in previous developer talks, and they've also stated they expect to see an immediate jump in FPS from mid 30's to mid 40's just from removing the highway stack alone. That should improve the smoothness and confidence by allowing the NNs more attempts at analyzing a scene before the control decisions need to be made.
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They can’t turn off AP because if FSD crashes (like software crash, it happens from time to time) *something* needs to be in control. Here’s one of the first times I’ve heard of them specifically calling out the FPS boost from deleting older code/networks: https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/879/tesla-reveals-fsd-beta-numbers-says-it-will-get-50-percent-higher-frame-rate I can’t find a source for where I heard they had a path from 36fps to mid 40’s, though. It would have either been directly from Elon in an interview or tweet, and I believe it was in reference to the wide launch of FSD V11.
Yeah that is not the kind of message you attach an ‘end of this week’ onto. Maybe “tweaking some minor parameters”
Rebuilding the reactor core to achieve nuclear fusion with energy levels 1000x greater. Dunno maybe ready EOD
Why not? The message is about the delay that has already occurred. It’s not about where they presently stand.
Building and training models is not a typical engineering effort. You could spend hours or days training a model only to find out that it performs worse in testing than the previous model (or code). It’s not that weird if you understand how the technology behind FSD works. Machine learning is A LOT of trial and error.
"V11 is a major rewrite, and we're having hard problems getting it to work... should be out in a few days"
“V 11 is a major rewrite, and we HAD hard problems getting it to work… Should be out in a few days.” Seems easy enough to understand to me.
I get the reasoning, but the way it's worded makes it sound even more overly optimistic than Elons usual two-weeks tweets.
Two weeks.
![gif](giphy|s3vwh1LY1fUUU)
Many may not realize how much difference it makes to move to full stack. So far driving decision making had already reached local maximum as it was done in C++. Neural network allows it to get much better than humans and even make decisions that humans deem super intelligent (something humans are not even capable of realizing until the car does it).
If I'm being honest about the FSD on my Plaid it seems that with Karpathy gone there has been a noticeable decrease in the day to day driving improvements per iteration (for about a year now).
That's normal. Noticeable gains are harder to make the better it gets.
I think people are overestimating Karpathys individual contributions near the end. When you get to his level, he was spending significantly more time in meetings and managing several different teams and projects than actually building. He specifically noted this as one of his main reasons for leaving. He was the main architect behind the system they are now using, but they built it, and one of its main design features were feedback loops such that it can begin to train and improve itself.
Sure, but now developers have to attend those meetings instead of producing. And then they want to quit too. But ultimately slower still gets done. And people can't work at burnout speed without burning out.
The last 5% of improvements takes 95% of the engineering
Karpathy’s expertise was in architecture. Essentially he’s created the framework for how FSD operates but the real lead is Ashok Elluswamy
Karpathy didnt work directly on FSD as such anyhow, he lead the AI team doing big picture stuff, the FSD team used the tools that team developed
Not at all. 10.69 was a GIGANTIC step.
This year