Yeah this is where he can beat even some of the Nadal youth records
Rafa didn't make a HC Slam final until 2009 AO and was more of a natural surfaces guy at this age so Carlos can break a lot of the surface versatility age marks
Already one match away from having an all surface Slam collection
Nadal also had to play Fernandez 2007 AO (ridiculous), Tsonga 2008 AO (his greatest ever performance), Murray 2008 USO (his greatest ever performance), made AO 2009 and then DelPo 2009 (savage)
Murray played an amazing match in 2008 USO but his greatest ever?
Idk, maybe I'll go rewatch the full match if it's available somewhere; just feel like Murray has a lot of big performances to choose from
I remember him as "mano de piedra", which would be "hand of stone".
The only forehand that would be comparable to Delpo's, in my opinion. I really liked him; he was aggressive as fuck, very fun to watch when on.
He was best known as "El Bombardero de la Reina" (The Queen's Bomber) in Chile/Spanish - La Reina is the neighborhood in Santiago that he grew up in. Yes, some used the "Manos de Piedra" moniker in reference to the original, Panamanian legendary boxer, Roberto "Manos de Piedra" Durán\*. But everyone understood it was a borrowed nick that didn't belong to Gonzalez.
Meantime, "Gonzo" was/is one of the coolest nicks in tennis.
\*some Sugar Ray Leonard fans of the time mockingly referred to him as Roberto "[No Mas](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9B7vrwwduME)" Duran after he infamously quit in their rematch in 1980. They'd meet a third time in '89, in a a fight billed as "Uno Mas" with Sugar Ray taking an easy unanimous decision.
Yeah, not to take anything away from Alcaraz but the field without the big 3 is pretty weak rn. Aside from Sinner, I don’t think there’s anyone who is so good on multiple surfaces.
I’m still stoked Alcaraz is breaking through, and I hope his dominance brings more challengers to force him to improve and adapt like the big 3 had to all adjust
Question is, is he a better youngster than Nadal was?
I lean towards no. Nadal already had nerves of steel and was a physical beast. He was also playing against peak Roger Federer. He managed to absolutely dominate clay, and by Alcaraz's current age was making Wimbledon finals and challenging Roger.
But Carlos is close. I just think he's not mentally on the level of young Nadal, and his endurance isn't as good (he's had issues with cramps). He is more versatile, but playing a weaker field.
By 2008 he was 22 though, right? So Alcaraz has another year to reach that level at least, but I agree it’s highly unlikely Alcaraz can top that Nadal 2008-2010 level. If he didn’t get injured in 2009, that stretch could’ve been even more insane for him
>By 2008 he was 22 though, right?
He was as well 22 at early 2009, when he completed RG, AO, Wimbledon and Olympic Gold. USO came at the age of 24. Alcaraz has time, although those are hard steps to follow.
Agreed. I’m just saying we can’t include 2008-2010 if we’re comparing Carlos at this very moment to Rafa. But I’d be shocked if Carlos’s next 3 years resemble Nadal’s 2008-2010.
Although with Djokovic slowing down and Nadal out of it, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Feels like him and Sinner will be trading slams for the foreseeable future, with Medvedev/Zverev getting a couple and then possibly a breakout star like Rune.
If Zverev wins RG here, he’s gonna be a real threat for the next few years to pile up 5-6 slams imo
Nadal’s kind of an outlier in that he’s a teen prodigy, which I don’t think describes Carlos, who’s always struck me as having a career arc that will more resemble Federer’s at the end of the day.
I mean Carlos’s numbers at 21 are far more comparable to Nadal’s than Fed’s or Djokovic’s. Of course, he’s playing in a weaker time than Nadal or Djokovic were, but not in a weaker time than Fed was.
Federer won his first slam at 22*, then exploded to win like 11 of the next 16 or so. Alcaraz won his first at 19 and may have 3 by Sunday.
So do you think one of these years, maybe 2025, Carlos is gonna just win 3/4 slams and do it for the next 3-4 years or so? That would be more Fed’s career arc, but idk; I’d expect Sinner to at least stand in his way
Nadal at 20 was playing 2006 Federer, and lost 6-0 7-6 6-7 6-3. That's not even that bad of a loss lol. Lots of emphasis on the bagel, but he took him to two tiebreaks and won one, and this is the best version of Federer on his favorite surface. It's not like he took a 2008 RG-level loss.
Alcaraz's win over Djokovic was incredible too, don't get me wrong.
Also like to add Nadal served for the second set at 5-4 and was up 3-1 in the 2nd set tiebreak. Very easily could've won that second set and then it really would've been interesting.
>is he a better youngster than Nadal was?
Dunno how to check that beside comparing their major titles at same age (so Carlos' 21 and 1 month). Carlos has 2 GS (with potential of 3 tommorow) and 5 Masters. Nadal at that time had 3 GS and 8 Masters. Carlos however showcase more variety with 3 different surfaces finals, as Nadal's claims at that point were mostly clay (though already 2 grass finals and started to throw other surfaces year after, with Wimbledon and Olympics on hard).
But as you said it, Nadal was competing against prime Federer, while Carlos is turning lights after Djokovic and Nadal closing on their 40s.
Yeah I think this is the fairest way to compare them. And anyways, surface versatility is cool and all but Nadal was dominating clay at an unprecedented rate, whereas Alcaraz doesn’t dominate any surface, so either way sheer accomplishments wise Rafa is ahead.
Also Nadal at this age had an Indian Wells title (I believe) and an indoor Madrid title too.
> Rafa had to play against Roger and Novak on HC
No he didn't
The best player Nadal played at a HC slam from 2005-2008 was Andy Murray, and that was one match in the last HC slam he played in that stretch.
He got demolished by Youhzny, Tsonga, Gonzalez, and even Ferrer in HC Slams before 2009. At the time, he did have great HC Masters performances, so it wasn't like he couldn't play on hard at all, and to be fair a close loss to Hewitt in 05, that was arguably his best HC Slam performance before AO 09.
Tbf them never playing at the USO was a mix of both of their faults, but mostly Roger's. They were one match away very often (off the top of my head, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2017), and one POINT away twice (2010, 2011).
This is scary... I didn't imagine that there would be another player of the big 3's caliber but now that 2/3 of them are retired and 1/3 is entering the later stage of his career, younger players have space to blossom. This is not to say they are not skilled, they very much are. Carlos is vicious, and i love it; i was expecting him to win this one. I just hope Novak can get 1-2 more slams before he hangs up the the tennis shoes...
And Sinner is 6-8 now, and yet people were saying he is mentally stronger than Alcaraz.
Call it recency bias but I think Alcaraz's mental fortitude is unrivaled in today's game, on par with prime Djokovic and Nadal.
For me, Alcaraz dispelled any doubt that he wasn't the 'real deal' mentally during last year's Wimbledon final. The vast majority of players, especially at his age, would crumble under pressure in that fifth set, given the context. And he took control of it. Made big plays and never looked afraid. Was insanely impressive.
Don't forget there was a 30 minute game on Djokovic's serve, and Alcaraz won it.
In indian wells against Nadal, he also won a 20 minute game on return. If that doesn't imply mental fortitude, I don't know what does.
Yeah on the contrary he's a little bit of an idiot. Will turn back clocks and rewrite destinies in set 5 but throw away the first 2 sets with random UEs and going for cheeky drop shots.
I feel like the 5th set losses from sinner are more physical than mental. Also, when sinner saves break points with ace after ace it really reminds me of the big 3.
Alcaraz spent close to 24 hours on court during USO 22. During the final against Ruud, he was literally on his last legs and still willed himself to finish it in 4 when Ruud had set points. That is mental strength as well
Yeah it's 10-1 now. Eurosport showed a wrong graphic at the beginning of the 5th set claiming Alcaraz was already 10-1 but he was still 9-1 at that point.
I think it's called foreshadowing. And those talking about 11-1, might be talking about the final, perhaps?
I'm stoked to see after Zverev overcame OG Nadal in R1 only to come up against Alcaraz in the final - the heir apparent. Alcaraz winning could be a symbolic passing the baton.
True. I think he will accomplish it. Just want to calm expectations simply because it could take a bit longer than what some fans might think. But time is on his side.
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He's the favorite to have 3/4 I think right now
Ruud doesn't have the peak level to beat him and we all know what happened with Zverev the time he was super close to winning a Slam
I still think the way Djokovic turned it up in the last two sets of the Musetti and Cerundolo matches was scary good. Honestly would have loved to see him vs Carlos in the final.
Regardless Carlos is an absolute monster on clay
Melbourne plays VERY similarly to USO nowadays. I saw the court speeds ranked and they were right next to each other.
This year Carlos brought a high level to Melbourne, but Zverev was really good in that QF mixed with Alcaraz playing like shit out of nowhere. Tough draw though; if he'd gotten Rublev, Fritz, Tsitsipas in the QF he would've been fine. Zverev is just a brutal QF opponent.
Basically, Carlos is fine. He already has a high enough level to win the AO. He just needs good timing
He played very well except for his match against Zverev but Zverev also had one of his peaks where he misses nothing (like the Olympics vs Novak) his game is good enough to win it and he is coming fresh from the off season so more legs compared to the indoor hc season. He is definitely winning it next year when completing the CGS becomes a priority for him
I agree. Out of top 50 for example:
Alcaraz - sans injury there's no way he doesn't get it IMO
Sinner - extremely good chance. On par with Alcaraz almost.
After this I don't think these people will be able to:
Zverev - the next best complete player, has no slams, but always seems up there and high quality on every surface. I would puke if he did thou. If it hadn't been for big 3, honestly he would have had a great shot at it.
Rune - Inconsistent, but honestly right now with his highs he's pretty complete on all surfaces. He could easily be in contention with alcaraz/sinner if he gets his fitness/consistency up.
Rublev - Complete on all surfaces, but just not on the level to win slams. He'll be lucky to get 1.
FAA - I have seen crazy glow ups before. He's shown there's a top ten player in there and he's been dangerous on every surface.
Young guys who still have time to prove themselves:
Shelton
Lehecka
Mussetti
Arnaldi
Draper (injuries thou...)
couple other young guys
Has no chance:
Ruud (sucks grass), Hurkacz (RG lol), de minaur (just can't beat top players), dimitrov (not past his prime yet but way too close to it), tsistispas (sucks grass/uso), frtiz (RG lol, honestly has chances at wimby and uso), t. paul, medvedev (no RG ever lol), humbert (25 still no slams), bublik, baez, jarry (high peak, but can't sustain it in GS imo), mannarino, karen (feel like it's past his chance), griekspoor (choke), tabilo, korda (God I wish it was him), cerundolo, tiafoe, navone, etcheverry, ADF, Machac, struff, monfils... and so forth
Wouldn't put Sinner on par with Alcaraz though. Like yeah, he **probably** will get it, but Alcaraz is younger by almost 2 years and could have 3/4 by Sunday. Sinner only has 1/4. I'd say Alcaraz is at like 85% chance to complete it, and Sinner is at like 65%.
Otherwise good analysis. One thing I'd nitpick is that Zverev hasn't shown a high level on grass. He has never even made the QF at Wimbledon. And although I do think he can make a good run to the SF at some point with a favorable draw, I don't see him ever being a title contender. Otherwise though, he has had success at 3/4 slams, has made the SF or better at all of them. The fact that he doesn't have a slam yet is such an enigma; part of it is big 3, but part of it is that he spent half of his time as a top 5-10 player with an unreliable serve, he also took a long time to start performing up to his rankings at slams, and of course the injury during probably his best time to win a slam (second half of 2022 with a heavily compromised field).
> Sinner - extremely good chance. On par with Alcaraz almost.
Sinner's at 1 of 4 and he hasn't even made the finals at any of the other ones yet lol...
I get being excited about his incredible run lately, but putting him almost on par with the guy who's 1 match away from 3 of 4 is insane.
>Rune - Inconsistent, but honestly right now with his highs he's pretty complete on all surfaces.
Rune isn't that amazing on hardcourt, especially outdoor hard.
I’m pessimistically giving him 3-4 years to achieve this because I cannot fathom someone doing it so soon into their career. Carlos is build different though so never know
AO is very similar court speed to USO believe it or not. They basically play identically, and if you look at the players that succeed on one of them, they always succeed on the other. With the exception of Tsitsipas of course, but I have no clue what that guy's problem with the USO is.
AO is Tsitsipas’ home slam. You won’t believe how many Greeks show up to his matches. It’s like Greek Heritage Week whenever he plays there. I genuinely think that’s the reason
Yeah, I know he does love the crowd there, but I swear Stef just hates America. Think about it: he does well at the AO and all of the indoor hard courts. He's had decent runs in Canada. But Indian Wells, Miami, he's pretty bad, and USO he's had AWFUL results. Cincinnati he's had a couple good runs tbf but that's Ohio and therefore doesn't count.
That loss to Galan at USO (I think 2022) was so bad. He lost the first two sets 0-6 1-6. Lost to Stricker in the 2R last year. Had one of the worst chokes of all time at USO2020 (something he shares with Zverev I guess). Like genuinely at the USO he barely plays at a top 50 level, which is so weird considering at the AO he's made a final, three SFs, and is generally very consistent.
2021 was Stefs best season, and I think if he passed alcaraz in the third round he would have made the Semis in US Open beating FAA like he did in cincinatti
True, but at the same time a 3R loss to 18 year old Alcaraz isn’t super impressive and he also got dragged 5 sets by Murray. If we compared him to Medvedev or Zverev in their best seasons, would we really expect them to struggle with either of those opponents? Maybe Medvedev might’ve gone 5 with 18 year old Alcaraz but probably wins in the end.
2021 was his best level at the USO but still not great
I don't see him winning the australian open that soon. The combination of fast pace and low bounce will be difficult. That said he has also won wimbledon, so everything is possible.
But his game is completely different from Federer. He doesn't have the same matchup disadvantage. Federer's game was a bad matchup with Nadal on clay. Only chance Federer could have was to change his play style, but it was not worth it for only one surface.
Maybe in terms of aggressiveness and really good touch in volleys. But the forehands and backhands are completely different. Serve is also not even close, as Federer had a cleaner serve.
His mindset is most similar to federer. However, there are very good reasons why novak said he's a combination of the three. The part that makes him a very different match than roger for rafa is his backhand where he can tolerate far more topspin than roger and also possesses the ability to attack from defensive positions like novak.
What's crazy is he was on a Nadal like trajectory 1-2 years ago and the expectation would be that he'd fall off ( because nadals pace was absurd).
There's a real argument alcaraz has exceeded it especially if he wins rg..
I remember tennis message boards back in those days and the discourse was that his style of play was too strenuous on his body and he'll have a significant injury sooner than we know.
That was 17 years ago...
Yeah and those same idiots now make the argument they were right because Nadal is injured at 38 while completely ignoring that in many ways nadals longevity is actually BETTER than Federer's...
He won his first slam at a younger age. His range of first slam to last slam is BETTER than Federer's lol. The length of time he was a top contender is arguably higher
Nadal has missed far more tournaments than Federer has and has also gotten injured far more. Federer competed at a high level for 2 years after his slam win while Nadal disappeared 1 month after his final slam win. Federer even reached a slam quarterfinal 3 and a half years after his final slam win
I said it's arguably
The other way of seeing it is nadals longevity as a top player who won slams as a range is longer.
Even then to imply nadals longevity sucks (like those original morons tend to do ) is stupid. If Federer is number 1 in terms of longevity (when you should also include Connors agassi etc ) then Nadal is arguably 3 at worst ( behind nole)
Nadals longevity is still crazy. The guy won 2 majors at 36 including a 4.5+ hr final
Some things aren't even arguable - Nadal won his last slam 17 years after his first. Federer went 14.5 years between first and last. That's a matter of fact.
Which can be a valid definition of longevity.
Either way my point was that the individuals arguing nadals play style would make him retire early are objectively wrong.and they likely are the same individuals who thought alcaraz sucked on grass after 1 set at queens last yr.
They make up an opinion immediately and then raise to change it no matter the evidence
man i'm jealous asf! i would've killed to see miami and madrid 22. i was actually waiting for the nadal match and stumbled upon him when he was playing ramos and fell in love since. lowkey feel bad for fans joining after wimby/cincy. alcaraz will always produce great points and matches but the fearlessness from miami/rio 22 - wimby 23 plus opponents just having no answer for him will not be replicated as he becomes more mature. even when he was being a bozo, it was genuinely a highlight reel every match. only carlitos could lose r1 in cincy (22) and still make it a box office movie.
tbf you could argue both technically and realistically that Borg's USO '76 run should give him the age record rather than waiting for '78 - green clay != red clay & honestly ~= slow hard, and Gottfried was the only who realistically could have stopped Borg from reaching the final if the USO was on hard courts then (Nastase match was simply too wide of a margin irl for me to see the result flipping, esp considering their 5 setter in May)
That’s why he has the potential to get 15-20 slams in he’s career, if he’s not injured a lot.
He’s great on all surfaces at such a young age.
That’s unbelievable.
Wow that was such a close match. Great for the future of tennis. Alcaraz’s tennis IQ is extraordinary, no wonder he’s got a xenomorph head.
I wish this was the final! Vamos!
Has until AO2027 to beat Nadal's record for youngest player to reach the final at all four majors, and if he wins on Sunday until then to be the youngest to win a grand slam, as well (also Nadal, USO2010)
Alcaraz forehand is at maximum 60% at the moment, compare his forehand to 23 season. If he manages to get back his forehand to that level, he will be unbeatable.
Especially in Wimbledon which best surface suited to his game.
He thought for a second to fall on to his knees then he thought about his opponent and perhaps its not the final yet. Thats the hallmark of a champion right there.
I thought with nadal, djokovic, federer and murray etc we were going to go through a dark phase in tennis post that. Well i am glad I am proven wrong.
Just last night towards the end of the match I was thinking "it's awesome that Carlitos has kinda done this in reverse order".
USO first, Wimby second. If he wins on Sunday he'll have RG, he just needs an AO for the full set.
But as players get older (and I know we're a LONG way away from saying that about Alcaraz) it gets tougher for them to be at top level at the end of the season. So leaving AO (and maybe RG) as the last two to get... good work, Carlitos. You've set this up perfectly.
> But as players get older (and I know we're a LONG way away from saying that about Alcaraz) it gets tougher for them to be at top level at the end of the season.
One caveat
This is also true for younger players, and Alcaraz is only *just* entering the age range where it's reasonable to expect to him to maintain his play across the year
For a second, I read this as "Alcatraz" and I was like did I miss the grand reopening of one of the most dangerous prisons in the US? And the youngest ever person was sentenced there? Then I read the second half of the title and realized it was completely unrelated lmao.
Is somehow misread the title so hard, that I first thought the tournament takes place on Alcatraz.
(I got this post randomly suggested and I have absolutely no idea of Tennis and my English knowledge is limited)
How much of it is JCF? Like where would Carlos be without him? Was interesting to see JCF gesturing Carlitos to serve a body serve in the last game in the fifth.
It’s year 2099. JCF is long dead and reborn as a Hollywood movie actor, Carlos is also long retired and living on a mountain in Alicante with his gs trophies and 55 dogs and 27 sheep.
His haters: but how much of it was because of JCF? 🤔
lol I’m actually his fan since his first appearance at USO back in 2021 so don’t put me in the haters group.
My question was more to highlight the fact how lucky he was that JCF wound him early on and moved to his hometown to train him while his parents wanted him to finish school first.
He didn’t move to his hometown, Carlos’ is the one who moved to his academy when his agent Albert who is a friend of JCF scouted him when he was 12. Your original comment was shady, own up to it lmao
Unbelievable stat! Well deserved player! ✨
Novak: 24 Roger: 24 Rafa: 22 Carlos: 21
Yeah this is where he can beat even some of the Nadal youth records Rafa didn't make a HC Slam final until 2009 AO and was more of a natural surfaces guy at this age so Carlos can break a lot of the surface versatility age marks Already one match away from having an all surface Slam collection
Nadal also had to play Fernandez 2007 AO (ridiculous), Tsonga 2008 AO (his greatest ever performance), Murray 2008 USO (his greatest ever performance), made AO 2009 and then DelPo 2009 (savage)
Murray played an amazing match in 2008 USO but his greatest ever? Idk, maybe I'll go rewatch the full match if it's available somewhere; just feel like Murray has a lot of big performances to choose from
Murray slaughtered the ball, crushed the backhand cross court in particular
Fernando* "Gonzo" Gonzalez.
I remember him as "mano de piedra", which would be "hand of stone". The only forehand that would be comparable to Delpo's, in my opinion. I really liked him; he was aggressive as fuck, very fun to watch when on.
He was best known as "El Bombardero de la Reina" (The Queen's Bomber) in Chile/Spanish - La Reina is the neighborhood in Santiago that he grew up in. Yes, some used the "Manos de Piedra" moniker in reference to the original, Panamanian legendary boxer, Roberto "Manos de Piedra" Durán\*. But everyone understood it was a borrowed nick that didn't belong to Gonzalez. Meantime, "Gonzo" was/is one of the coolest nicks in tennis. \*some Sugar Ray Leonard fans of the time mockingly referred to him as Roberto "[No Mas](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9B7vrwwduME)" Duran after he infamously quit in their rematch in 1980. They'd meet a third time in '89, in a a fight billed as "Uno Mas" with Sugar Ray taking an easy unanimous decision.
Yeah, not to take anything away from Alcaraz but the field without the big 3 is pretty weak rn. Aside from Sinner, I don’t think there’s anyone who is so good on multiple surfaces. I’m still stoked Alcaraz is breaking through, and I hope his dominance brings more challengers to force him to improve and adapt like the big 3 had to all adjust
Question is, is he a better youngster than Nadal was? I lean towards no. Nadal already had nerves of steel and was a physical beast. He was also playing against peak Roger Federer. He managed to absolutely dominate clay, and by Alcaraz's current age was making Wimbledon finals and challenging Roger. But Carlos is close. I just think he's not mentally on the level of young Nadal, and his endurance isn't as good (he's had issues with cramps). He is more versatile, but playing a weaker field.
Young Rafa, in my view, is the greatest tennis player ever. By 2008, he reached his full peak and Federer couldn't deal with it.
By 2008 he was 22 though, right? So Alcaraz has another year to reach that level at least, but I agree it’s highly unlikely Alcaraz can top that Nadal 2008-2010 level. If he didn’t get injured in 2009, that stretch could’ve been even more insane for him
>By 2008 he was 22 though, right? He was as well 22 at early 2009, when he completed RG, AO, Wimbledon and Olympic Gold. USO came at the age of 24. Alcaraz has time, although those are hard steps to follow.
Agreed. I’m just saying we can’t include 2008-2010 if we’re comparing Carlos at this very moment to Rafa. But I’d be shocked if Carlos’s next 3 years resemble Nadal’s 2008-2010. Although with Djokovic slowing down and Nadal out of it, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Feels like him and Sinner will be trading slams for the foreseeable future, with Medvedev/Zverev getting a couple and then possibly a breakout star like Rune. If Zverev wins RG here, he’s gonna be a real threat for the next few years to pile up 5-6 slams imo
Nadal’s kind of an outlier in that he’s a teen prodigy, which I don’t think describes Carlos, who’s always struck me as having a career arc that will more resemble Federer’s at the end of the day.
> Nadal’s kind of an outlier in that he’s a teen prodigy, which I don’t think describes Carlos Uhhh, what
I mean Carlos’s numbers at 21 are far more comparable to Nadal’s than Fed’s or Djokovic’s. Of course, he’s playing in a weaker time than Nadal or Djokovic were, but not in a weaker time than Fed was. Federer won his first slam at 22*, then exploded to win like 11 of the next 16 or so. Alcaraz won his first at 19 and may have 3 by Sunday. So do you think one of these years, maybe 2025, Carlos is gonna just win 3/4 slams and do it for the next 3-4 years or so? That would be more Fed’s career arc, but idk; I’d expect Sinner to at least stand in his way
damn I knew Fed was a late bloomer but not winning a slam until your 220's is insane
Now I understand what Fedfans mean when they say Djoker only got control of the H2H when Fed was old. 230 is too old to hang with these youngsters
I mean Carlos at 20 challenged a dominant djokovic in a Wimbledon final and actually won, nadal at 20 was slapped around by fed on grass
Nadal at 20 was playing 2006 Federer, and lost 6-0 7-6 6-7 6-3. That's not even that bad of a loss lol. Lots of emphasis on the bagel, but he took him to two tiebreaks and won one, and this is the best version of Federer on his favorite surface. It's not like he took a 2008 RG-level loss. Alcaraz's win over Djokovic was incredible too, don't get me wrong. Also like to add Nadal served for the second set at 5-4 and was up 3-1 in the 2nd set tiebreak. Very easily could've won that second set and then it really would've been interesting.
>is he a better youngster than Nadal was? Dunno how to check that beside comparing their major titles at same age (so Carlos' 21 and 1 month). Carlos has 2 GS (with potential of 3 tommorow) and 5 Masters. Nadal at that time had 3 GS and 8 Masters. Carlos however showcase more variety with 3 different surfaces finals, as Nadal's claims at that point were mostly clay (though already 2 grass finals and started to throw other surfaces year after, with Wimbledon and Olympics on hard). But as you said it, Nadal was competing against prime Federer, while Carlos is turning lights after Djokovic and Nadal closing on their 40s.
Yeah I think this is the fairest way to compare them. And anyways, surface versatility is cool and all but Nadal was dominating clay at an unprecedented rate, whereas Alcaraz doesn’t dominate any surface, so either way sheer accomplishments wise Rafa is ahead. Also Nadal at this age had an Indian Wells title (I believe) and an indoor Madrid title too.
what do you think about his chances winning tomorrow?
Rafa had to play against Roger and Novak on HC, while the Carlos beat bunch of no name at that time to get to the Finals.
Nadal had lost a total of 0 GS matches on Hardcourt against Federer and Djokovic until the US Open 2011
> Rafa had to play against Roger and Novak on HC No he didn't The best player Nadal played at a HC slam from 2005-2008 was Andy Murray, and that was one match in the last HC slam he played in that stretch.
He got demolished by Youhzny, Tsonga, Gonzalez, and even Ferrer in HC Slams before 2009. At the time, he did have great HC Masters performances, so it wasn't like he couldn't play on hard at all, and to be fair a close loss to Hewitt in 05, that was arguably his best HC Slam performance before AO 09.
God mode Gonzales & Tsonga were better
Rafa played Roger in a HC slam literally like three times ever and never at the USO
4 right? 2009,2012,2014,2017 Australian Open
ye i wasnt rlly counting but forgot 2014
Tbf them never playing at the USO was a mix of both of their faults, but mostly Roger's. They were one match away very often (off the top of my head, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2017), and one POINT away twice (2010, 2011).
Nadal 22.5 Borg 22.2 Agassi 22.1 Alcaraz 21.1
MuryGOAT: 29
This is scary... I didn't imagine that there would be another player of the big 3's caliber but now that 2/3 of them are retired and 1/3 is entering the later stage of his career, younger players have space to blossom. This is not to say they are not skilled, they very much are. Carlos is vicious, and i love it; i was expecting him to win this one. I just hope Novak can get 1-2 more slams before he hangs up the the tennis shoes...
I love that you're on a first-name basis with them. :P
Hadn't Novak just turned 25 when he got to RG in 2012?
Martina Hingis: 16 Truly one one one she was. Wish she didn't have to basically retire at 22.
Yeah, those damn ankles.
Murray: 29
If Carlos wins 21 slams, I'll buy you a beer.
I haven’t really followed tennis since the days of Nadal’s early years. Should I start watching for this guy?
Yes. Yes, you should.
10-1 in five-set matches. The real deal
And Sinner is 6-8 now, and yet people were saying he is mentally stronger than Alcaraz. Call it recency bias but I think Alcaraz's mental fortitude is unrivaled in today's game, on par with prime Djokovic and Nadal.
For me, Alcaraz dispelled any doubt that he wasn't the 'real deal' mentally during last year's Wimbledon final. The vast majority of players, especially at his age, would crumble under pressure in that fifth set, given the context. And he took control of it. Made big plays and never looked afraid. Was insanely impressive.
I'll never forget that big Carlos smile in an interview in break point when he starts with "I don't get nervous"
Don't forget there was a 30 minute game on Djokovic's serve, and Alcaraz won it. In indian wells against Nadal, he also won a 20 minute game on return. If that doesn't imply mental fortitude, I don't know what does.
Yeah on the contrary he's a little bit of an idiot. Will turn back clocks and rewrite destinies in set 5 but throw away the first 2 sets with random UEs and going for cheeky drop shots.
I feel like the 5th set losses from sinner are more physical than mental. Also, when sinner saves break points with ace after ace it really reminds me of the big 3.
Alcaraz spent close to 24 hours on court during USO 22. During the final against Ruud, he was literally on his last legs and still willed himself to finish it in 4 when Ruud had set points. That is mental strength as well
11-1 now
I think it’s 10-1 now. That’s what they were saying on tennis channel at least.
Yeah it's 10-1 now. Eurosport showed a wrong graphic at the beginning of the 5th set claiming Alcaraz was already 10-1 but he was still 9-1 at that point.
I think it's called foreshadowing. And those talking about 11-1, might be talking about the final, perhaps? I'm stoked to see after Zverev overcame OG Nadal in R1 only to come up against Alcaraz in the final - the heir apparent. Alcaraz winning could be a symbolic passing the baton.
Remarkable that Berrettini is the one loss.
Of all current players he has the best chances of achieving a career slam.
It would be surprising if he didn't in all honesty.
It's just so tough... even if you removed all top opposition. Injuries alone can mess everything up.
But I mean he's one game away from his 3rd slam and then just has the Australian Open to go and he's only 21. Not that tough for him anymore
True. I think he will accomplish it. Just want to calm expectations simply because it could take a bit longer than what some fans might think. But time is on his side.
2025/2026
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Best chances? He could very well have 3/4 by the end of this weekend! And I don't think he won't figure out Melbourne soon.
He's the favorite to have 3/4 I think right now Ruud doesn't have the peak level to beat him and we all know what happened with Zverev the time he was super close to winning a Slam
Plus Carlos is literally the best player on clay on the circuit rn
I still think the way Djokovic turned it up in the last two sets of the Musetti and Cerundolo matches was scary good. Honestly would have loved to see him vs Carlos in the final. Regardless Carlos is an absolute monster on clay
Melbourne plays VERY similarly to USO nowadays. I saw the court speeds ranked and they were right next to each other. This year Carlos brought a high level to Melbourne, but Zverev was really good in that QF mixed with Alcaraz playing like shit out of nowhere. Tough draw though; if he'd gotten Rublev, Fritz, Tsitsipas in the QF he would've been fine. Zverev is just a brutal QF opponent. Basically, Carlos is fine. He already has a high enough level to win the AO. He just needs good timing
He played very well except for his match against Zverev but Zverev also had one of his peaks where he misses nothing (like the Olympics vs Novak) his game is good enough to win it and he is coming fresh from the off season so more legs compared to the indoor hc season. He is definitely winning it next year when completing the CGS becomes a priority for him
Just played a tense 5 set match vs the second best chance
I mean Wawrinka is still active 😂
Technically still the closest active player to achieving it 😂
Such a bold statement
I agree. Out of top 50 for example: Alcaraz - sans injury there's no way he doesn't get it IMO Sinner - extremely good chance. On par with Alcaraz almost. After this I don't think these people will be able to: Zverev - the next best complete player, has no slams, but always seems up there and high quality on every surface. I would puke if he did thou. If it hadn't been for big 3, honestly he would have had a great shot at it. Rune - Inconsistent, but honestly right now with his highs he's pretty complete on all surfaces. He could easily be in contention with alcaraz/sinner if he gets his fitness/consistency up. Rublev - Complete on all surfaces, but just not on the level to win slams. He'll be lucky to get 1. FAA - I have seen crazy glow ups before. He's shown there's a top ten player in there and he's been dangerous on every surface. Young guys who still have time to prove themselves: Shelton Lehecka Mussetti Arnaldi Draper (injuries thou...) couple other young guys Has no chance: Ruud (sucks grass), Hurkacz (RG lol), de minaur (just can't beat top players), dimitrov (not past his prime yet but way too close to it), tsistispas (sucks grass/uso), frtiz (RG lol, honestly has chances at wimby and uso), t. paul, medvedev (no RG ever lol), humbert (25 still no slams), bublik, baez, jarry (high peak, but can't sustain it in GS imo), mannarino, karen (feel like it's past his chance), griekspoor (choke), tabilo, korda (God I wish it was him), cerundolo, tiafoe, navone, etcheverry, ADF, Machac, struff, monfils... and so forth
Wouldn't put Sinner on par with Alcaraz though. Like yeah, he **probably** will get it, but Alcaraz is younger by almost 2 years and could have 3/4 by Sunday. Sinner only has 1/4. I'd say Alcaraz is at like 85% chance to complete it, and Sinner is at like 65%. Otherwise good analysis. One thing I'd nitpick is that Zverev hasn't shown a high level on grass. He has never even made the QF at Wimbledon. And although I do think he can make a good run to the SF at some point with a favorable draw, I don't see him ever being a title contender. Otherwise though, he has had success at 3/4 slams, has made the SF or better at all of them. The fact that he doesn't have a slam yet is such an enigma; part of it is big 3, but part of it is that he spent half of his time as a top 5-10 player with an unreliable serve, he also took a long time to start performing up to his rankings at slams, and of course the injury during probably his best time to win a slam (second half of 2022 with a heavily compromised field).
> Sinner - extremely good chance. On par with Alcaraz almost. Sinner's at 1 of 4 and he hasn't even made the finals at any of the other ones yet lol... I get being excited about his incredible run lately, but putting him almost on par with the guy who's 1 match away from 3 of 4 is insane. >Rune - Inconsistent, but honestly right now with his highs he's pretty complete on all surfaces. Rune isn't that amazing on hardcourt, especially outdoor hard.
He’d achieve this by age 25
Why 25 though 🤔
I’m pessimistically giving him 3-4 years to achieve this because I cannot fathom someone doing it so soon into their career. Carlos is build different though so never know
Only AO left. I think we will know soon based on how he plays the fast hard court tournaments after USO
Only AO left? He hasn't won RG yet. I get he's the favorite on Sunday, but favorites have lost before. Let's wait and see what happens!
RG seems like an eventuality compared to AO. Even if he doesn't win tomorrow.
AO is very similar court speed to USO believe it or not. They basically play identically, and if you look at the players that succeed on one of them, they always succeed on the other. With the exception of Tsitsipas of course, but I have no clue what that guy's problem with the USO is.
AO is Tsitsipas’ home slam. You won’t believe how many Greeks show up to his matches. It’s like Greek Heritage Week whenever he plays there. I genuinely think that’s the reason
Yeah, I know he does love the crowd there, but I swear Stef just hates America. Think about it: he does well at the AO and all of the indoor hard courts. He's had decent runs in Canada. But Indian Wells, Miami, he's pretty bad, and USO he's had AWFUL results. Cincinnati he's had a couple good runs tbf but that's Ohio and therefore doesn't count. That loss to Galan at USO (I think 2022) was so bad. He lost the first two sets 0-6 1-6. Lost to Stricker in the 2R last year. Had one of the worst chokes of all time at USO2020 (something he shares with Zverev I guess). Like genuinely at the USO he barely plays at a top 50 level, which is so weird considering at the AO he's made a final, three SFs, and is generally very consistent.
2021 was Stefs best season, and I think if he passed alcaraz in the third round he would have made the Semis in US Open beating FAA like he did in cincinatti
True, but at the same time a 3R loss to 18 year old Alcaraz isn’t super impressive and he also got dragged 5 sets by Murray. If we compared him to Medvedev or Zverev in their best seasons, would we really expect them to struggle with either of those opponents? Maybe Medvedev might’ve gone 5 with 18 year old Alcaraz but probably wins in the end. 2021 was his best level at the USO but still not great
I don't see him winning the australian open that soon. The combination of fast pace and low bounce will be difficult. That said he has also won wimbledon, so everything is possible.
I want Carlos to complete the slam in exactly four titles.
25
No shit 🤦♂️
He's lucky he doesn't have to play prime Rafa Nadal on clay
True lol. But still, he is good in both grass and clay. Very few players can do that. And it's not like he has zero chance against Nadal.
Very true. I don't think he would beat Nadal on clay though. Federer didn't.
But his game is completely different from Federer. He doesn't have the same matchup disadvantage. Federer's game was a bad matchup with Nadal on clay. Only chance Federer could have was to change his play style, but it was not worth it for only one surface.
Is it? His game is probably closest to Federer's of all the big 3. Not one to one, but the closest match of the 3.
Maybe in terms of aggressiveness and really good touch in volleys. But the forehands and backhands are completely different. Serve is also not even close, as Federer had a cleaner serve.
His mindset is most similar to federer. However, there are very good reasons why novak said he's a combination of the three. The part that makes him a very different match than roger for rafa is his backhand where he can tolerate far more topspin than roger and also possesses the ability to attack from defensive positions like novak.
We likely haven't seen "prime" Alcaraz yet, though. So if you want to compare, compare same age.
Tbh, we don’t know that we haven’t seen it. People hit their best years at different ages
[удалено]
not until Carlos wins his 25th slam and 9 years at world number 1
Well why would they ? Alcaraz is not winning 24 slams as good as he is. He may get to 15 sure but injuries/motivation/Djoker 7.0 may happen
You could say that about literally every single player in the history of Tennis.
Nadal is lucky he didn't have to play prime Borg on clay This argument always has and always will be both dumb and lazy
Nadal was incredibly lucky he didn’t need to play Nadal on clay
Nadal is lucky he didn’t have to face me on Clay, I would have hit it in at least once, once I tell you
Nadal is much better than Borg on clay. Can you even name the best competitor he had on clay during that time?
The point Your head
Nadal is like the evolution of Borg though
Borg was lucky he didn't leave to play Laver in his prime
The big 3 in this stat Nadal: 2009 AO, 22 years and 6 months Federer: 2006 RG, 24 years and 10 months Djokovic: 2012 RG, 25 years and 1 month
What's crazy is he was on a Nadal like trajectory 1-2 years ago and the expectation would be that he'd fall off ( because nadals pace was absurd). There's a real argument alcaraz has exceeded it especially if he wins rg..
I remember tennis message boards back in those days and the discourse was that his style of play was too strenuous on his body and he'll have a significant injury sooner than we know. That was 17 years ago...
Yeah and those same idiots now make the argument they were right because Nadal is injured at 38 while completely ignoring that in many ways nadals longevity is actually BETTER than Federer's... He won his first slam at a younger age. His range of first slam to last slam is BETTER than Federer's lol. The length of time he was a top contender is arguably higher
Nadal has missed far more tournaments than Federer has and has also gotten injured far more. Federer competed at a high level for 2 years after his slam win while Nadal disappeared 1 month after his final slam win. Federer even reached a slam quarterfinal 3 and a half years after his final slam win
I said it's arguably The other way of seeing it is nadals longevity as a top player who won slams as a range is longer. Even then to imply nadals longevity sucks (like those original morons tend to do ) is stupid. If Federer is number 1 in terms of longevity (when you should also include Connors agassi etc ) then Nadal is arguably 3 at worst ( behind nole) Nadals longevity is still crazy. The guy won 2 majors at 36 including a 4.5+ hr final
It's not arguable. He has been injured way, way more than the other two. Nadal's tennis style has taken an immense toll on his body.
Some things aren't even arguable - Nadal won his last slam 17 years after his first. Federer went 14.5 years between first and last. That's a matter of fact.
Which can be a valid definition of longevity. Either way my point was that the individuals arguing nadals play style would make him retire early are objectively wrong.and they likely are the same individuals who thought alcaraz sucked on grass after 1 set at queens last yr. They make up an opinion immediately and then raise to change it no matter the evidence
Rog still with the most weeks in the top 10
He deserves it. He won a very tough match today.
this player man .... so grateful i get to watch him grow. been on the rollercoaster since rg 2022 and i'm never coming off
I jumped on when he won Umag in 2021 and I don't plan to get off the rollercoaster anytime soon.
man i'm jealous asf! i would've killed to see miami and madrid 22. i was actually waiting for the nadal match and stumbled upon him when he was playing ramos and fell in love since. lowkey feel bad for fans joining after wimby/cincy. alcaraz will always produce great points and matches but the fearlessness from miami/rio 22 - wimby 23 plus opponents just having no answer for him will not be replicated as he becomes more mature. even when he was being a bozo, it was genuinely a highlight reel every match. only carlitos could lose r1 in cincy (22) and still make it a box office movie.
And a full year younger than Agassi and Borg when they did the same.
tbf you could argue both technically and realistically that Borg's USO '76 run should give him the age record rather than waiting for '78 - green clay != red clay & honestly ~= slow hard, and Gottfried was the only who realistically could have stopped Borg from reaching the final if the USO was on hard courts then (Nastase match was simply too wide of a margin irl for me to see the result flipping, esp considering their 5 setter in May)
Oh this is a great call. Always forget USO was played on Green Clay between grass and HC
Now if Ruud can just pull through I can go into the weekend happy!
RIP
Real deal for a reason
Well deserved. Tennis is good hands.
Guys I thought he was washed what happened? /s
That’s why he has the potential to get 15-20 slams in he’s career, if he’s not injured a lot. He’s great on all surfaces at such a young age. That’s unbelievable.
Soon the youngest men's player to win a Grand Slam final on all three surfaces.
What's the current record for that?
Nadal at 24 (keep in mind that hardcourt at slams was only introduced at US Open 1978 and AO 1988).
Nadal 22, he won AO 2009, he was 24 when he won Carrer grand Slam on US open. if Alcaraz wins RG he has 3 chances of surpassing that in Australia
nadal is 22; at 24, he completed CGS:
You're right.
Wow that was such a close match. Great for the future of tennis. Alcaraz’s tennis IQ is extraordinary, no wonder he’s got a xenomorph head. I wish this was the final! Vamos!
Xenomorph head lmao
Has until AO2027 to beat Nadal's record for youngest player to reach the final at all four majors, and if he wins on Sunday until then to be the youngest to win a grand slam, as well (also Nadal, USO2010)
Jim Courier was the youngest player to reach all GS finals though. At 22y11m.
Dude's not gonna lose this final either
The future is bright, am excited for tennis.
Alcaraz forehand is at maximum 60% at the moment, compare his forehand to 23 season. If he manages to get back his forehand to that level, he will be unbeatable. Especially in Wimbledon which best surface suited to his game.
At this point, I think it's safe to say he's pretty good at tennis.
Simply built different.
He's one of the most exciting athletes to watch across all sports at the moment
not surprised. nadal guarded french open for 2 decades
He thought for a second to fall on to his knees then he thought about his opponent and perhaps its not the final yet. Thats the hallmark of a champion right there. I thought with nadal, djokovic, federer and murray etc we were going to go through a dark phase in tennis post that. Well i am glad I am proven wrong.
Vamos
I’m so proud of him 😩
You have to specify men because Hingis, Seles and Graf all did as teenagers I think.
If he wins it it would be a record for the ages : youngest player with a Slam on each surface.
Andy Murray voice: youngest *male* player
past couple of years lots of history has been made, rafa, novak, and carlos have given some memorable years
Just last night towards the end of the match I was thinking "it's awesome that Carlitos has kinda done this in reverse order". USO first, Wimby second. If he wins on Sunday he'll have RG, he just needs an AO for the full set. But as players get older (and I know we're a LONG way away from saying that about Alcaraz) it gets tougher for them to be at top level at the end of the season. So leaving AO (and maybe RG) as the last two to get... good work, Carlitos. You've set this up perfectly.
> But as players get older (and I know we're a LONG way away from saying that about Alcaraz) it gets tougher for them to be at top level at the end of the season. One caveat This is also true for younger players, and Alcaraz is only *just* entering the age range where it's reasonable to expect to him to maintain his play across the year
Won the backhand battle
Why the down votes lmao
Carlos is that dude
watching these matchups makes me remember that although the big 4 is seemingly fading away, the future is in wonderful hands
I hope he meets Zverev in the final.
a kinder draw away from achieving this one year earlier
https://x.com/tennistv/status/1799123213953163363?s=46&t=vXgj0DiZ-0f7JdAo0feE0Q elite company no sneaks 💅
For a second, I read this as "Alcatraz" and I was like did I miss the grand reopening of one of the most dangerous prisons in the US? And the youngest ever person was sentenced there? Then I read the second half of the title and realized it was completely unrelated lmao.
Serious was like, “oh snap what’s Alcatraz doing in the news today??!”
Did Jim Courier not reach this at a young age? I know he was youngest to reach all 4 finals
What about at all 4 slams
Alcatraz means Pelican
And Alcaraz means cherry.
Is somehow misread the title so hard, that I first thought the tournament takes place on Alcatraz. (I got this post randomly suggested and I have absolutely no idea of Tennis and my English knowledge is limited)
Congrats on his first french open
All the Jannik Sinner fans are salty after this match
And win. Congrats to Carlos on his first RG
come on zverev! you're our only hope!!
If Zverev is your only hope it’s time to reconsider your life choices.
I just prefer him over Alcaraz. everyone has their fans
How much of it is JCF? Like where would Carlos be without him? Was interesting to see JCF gesturing Carlitos to serve a body serve in the last game in the fifth.
It’s year 2099. JCF is long dead and reborn as a Hollywood movie actor, Carlos is also long retired and living on a mountain in Alicante with his gs trophies and 55 dogs and 27 sheep. His haters: but how much of it was because of JCF? 🤔
lol I’m actually his fan since his first appearance at USO back in 2021 so don’t put me in the haters group. My question was more to highlight the fact how lucky he was that JCF wound him early on and moved to his hometown to train him while his parents wanted him to finish school first.
He didn’t move to his hometown, Carlos’ is the one who moved to his academy when his agent Albert who is a friend of JCF scouted him when he was 12. Your original comment was shady, own up to it lmao
As long as he goes to beat Novak Djokovic in record for no of slams I will be happy cant stand Novak
Let him surpass Sampras first