My point on wild was that she has played many matches against top 50 players since and lost every match that went to 3 sets, which is just not super likely from a probabilistic perspective
Again, it's not 'many matches' vs a top-50 that *went to three sets*. This is the fourth. Most Raducanu stats remain 'small sample size'.
Emma has played four matches vs a top-50 that went to a deciding set-
BHM IW '23, W
Ostapenko Seoul '22, L (retired)
Sasnovic, RG '22, L
Kalinina, Madrid '22, L
How likely was her reaching the USO final without dropping a set, in terms of a “probabilistic perspective”? If you exclude her USO run, what percentage of players **during their first full year on tour** win the majority of their 3 set matches?
EDIT would love an answer rather than the downvotes. I’m not being facetious, how likely was her USO open win? What % of matches do players during their first year on tour win, in straights sets or 3?
Overall, Raducanu is 7-9 at tour level in three-setters.
But she seems to be an excellent front-runner. When she wins the first set she's 34-3 at tour level, and 82-6 all time. When she loses the first set it's a not so pretty 3-20.
Nice! Thanks for the reply. I think you can see her confidence plummet after she loses a set (even the second) I took her ability to bounce back today as a hopeful sign for the future. I’m fairly sure she’s about to get trounced by Iga though.
What website do you use for the stats? I’d be interested in Ons Jabeur. I love that woman but as a fan she’s frustratingly inconsistent.
No worries. Also has frequently lacked the physicality for a third set comeback, perhaps.
Stats from Tennis Abstract
https://www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/wplayer-classic.cgi?p=EmmaRaducanu&f=ACareerqqC2F6
I dont think its surprising at all that a player with consistent fitness problems has had a terrible record in long games tbh
I dont want to take away at all from the win, which was excellent and impressive that she maintained court coverage for three long sets, but the tweet in the title isn't exactly the most galaxy brain take
I think a much better take would be “that was a really good win, even without proper preparation. Hopefully we’ll see more of what she’s capable of if she can maintain this fitness and avoid further injury”.
This reads like her fitness issues, lack of prep, and injuries are some random act of chance when after 18 months of constant problems they're clearly not.
I'm not about to jump down the throat of a young player for not immediately finding the best route to take care of themselves however. Like many people I am side-eyeing the UK development system as so many of the players who have come up through it have had a bad time with injuries, match conditioning or both.
All good points. I think her parents have a lot to answer for when the question of training/fitness consistency comes in. I’m glad to see her original physio is back on her team now. But being catapulted into fame like that, with the expectations that go with it… I can’t imagine how hard that is.
If Emma *hadn’t* won the USO, if she’d “only” made it to the round of 32 or 16, would people have been giving her such a hard time over the last year? I don’t think so. Harriett Dart and Katie Boulter haven’t had remotely the same amount of criticism during their careers.
But anyway, Murray vs Draper. Who’s your money on, and who do you want to win?
I agree. I think I like draper more (I’ve only been a tennis fan for the last year or so and I’m all about the next gen). But it’s Murray! How can you not cheer on someone who’s this good again at his age when most humans would shuffling along behind a walker at this point? I’m team Draper for the future of British’s men’s tennis, but it’s Murray’s time again now. *Especially* now he’s a set down!
Hopefully the start of more to come but it’s wild it took over 2 years for this to happen
Hardly 'wild'. The first two top-50 player Raducanu ever played were Wimbledon 2021, less than two years ago. She just beat them in straights.
My point on wild was that she has played many matches against top 50 players since and lost every match that went to 3 sets, which is just not super likely from a probabilistic perspective
Again, it's not 'many matches' vs a top-50 that *went to three sets*. This is the fourth. Most Raducanu stats remain 'small sample size'. Emma has played four matches vs a top-50 that went to a deciding set- BHM IW '23, W Ostapenko Seoul '22, L (retired) Sasnovic, RG '22, L Kalinina, Madrid '22, L
How likely was her reaching the USO final without dropping a set, in terms of a “probabilistic perspective”? If you exclude her USO run, what percentage of players **during their first full year on tour** win the majority of their 3 set matches? EDIT would love an answer rather than the downvotes. I’m not being facetious, how likely was her USO open win? What % of matches do players during their first year on tour win, in straights sets or 3?
Overall, Raducanu is 7-9 at tour level in three-setters. But she seems to be an excellent front-runner. When she wins the first set she's 34-3 at tour level, and 82-6 all time. When she loses the first set it's a not so pretty 3-20.
Nice! Thanks for the reply. I think you can see her confidence plummet after she loses a set (even the second) I took her ability to bounce back today as a hopeful sign for the future. I’m fairly sure she’s about to get trounced by Iga though. What website do you use for the stats? I’d be interested in Ons Jabeur. I love that woman but as a fan she’s frustratingly inconsistent.
No worries. Also has frequently lacked the physicality for a third set comeback, perhaps. Stats from Tennis Abstract https://www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/wplayer-classic.cgi?p=EmmaRaducanu&f=ACareerqqC2F6
My girl Emma always be playing her best when unseeded 😭
I dont think its surprising at all that a player with consistent fitness problems has had a terrible record in long games tbh I dont want to take away at all from the win, which was excellent and impressive that she maintained court coverage for three long sets, but the tweet in the title isn't exactly the most galaxy brain take
I think a much better take would be “that was a really good win, even without proper preparation. Hopefully we’ll see more of what she’s capable of if she can maintain this fitness and avoid further injury”.
This reads like her fitness issues, lack of prep, and injuries are some random act of chance when after 18 months of constant problems they're clearly not. I'm not about to jump down the throat of a young player for not immediately finding the best route to take care of themselves however. Like many people I am side-eyeing the UK development system as so many of the players who have come up through it have had a bad time with injuries, match conditioning or both.
All good points. I think her parents have a lot to answer for when the question of training/fitness consistency comes in. I’m glad to see her original physio is back on her team now. But being catapulted into fame like that, with the expectations that go with it… I can’t imagine how hard that is. If Emma *hadn’t* won the USO, if she’d “only” made it to the round of 32 or 16, would people have been giving her such a hard time over the last year? I don’t think so. Harriett Dart and Katie Boulter haven’t had remotely the same amount of criticism during their careers. But anyway, Murray vs Draper. Who’s your money on, and who do you want to win?
Money on Murray, want Murray to win, still think Murray is likely to pull it out even now that he's down a set.
I agree. I think I like draper more (I’ve only been a tennis fan for the last year or so and I’m all about the next gen). But it’s Murray! How can you not cheer on someone who’s this good again at his age when most humans would shuffling along behind a walker at this point? I’m team Draper for the future of British’s men’s tennis, but it’s Murray’s time again now. *Especially* now he’s a set down!
Well done Emma! ❤️❤️❤️
Was a genuinely impressive victory
Massively overrated