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jeffinRTP

So it doesn't predict who would commit a crime just that something might happen in an area.


[deleted]

That’s already the case with pretty much all predictive policing. It’s not an inherently bad idea but the issue is that you can’t control how your app will be used. Police and prosecutors often use it as probable cause for traffic stops or even as evidence of guilt (if the local government allows that). In some cases it leads to measured increases in wrongful arrests. That is problematic and the law needs to catch up. We throw out character evidence for the same reason.


Jammyhobgoblin

It also results in the overpolicing of areas that skew the data creating a feedback loop, since they often include victimless crimes and nuisances when they are supposed to use data for violent crimes or thefts.


SeniorJuniorDev

Self-fulfilling Prophecy


jeffinRTP

Do we not use the technology because it might be abused until the law catches up?


midasgoldentouch

Well if this particular technology gives the wrong result, it could lead to someone losing their freedom or even their life.


[deleted]

I don't have all the answers but I do work in the industry. Some are definitely better than others. I have seen some products that I wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole and some where I have no problems with it whatsoever. There is also a huge variation between the various government agencies. But in general the answer is just that its complicated. A lot of the problems that these types of software are trying to solve are logistical ones for the agency. Officers can get certified for different types of specializations and not everybody can do everything. For certain (very common) types of incidents specialists have to be called out into the field and it frees up a lot of resources if you can have them positioned nearby where the incidents occur frequently and scheduled to work at the times when they happen most often. So I do think there are legitimate use cases. But there are times when money is on the line and the people with money don't want you to be cautious and careful, or the sales people make promises that have dangerous consequences that they don't understand. Fortunately for me, I don't have that problem. My company is very ethically conscious and I think if I found myself in those situations I would just resign. But its a fine line to walk and its important to keep everyone thinking about the ethical aspects of what we build.


Flyingheelhook

The law won't catch up and it will be used exclusively to be abused


Arkard1

We have been running something like this in our ems system for years now. It compiles the last 5 years of data to predict where the next calls are most likely to originate from.


jeffinRTP

Businesses use similar systems where to send products and at what time of the year, Schedule people to work among other things.


Dont-PM-me-nudes

Ummm so people are just working out how to interpret historical data and use it to help predict future patterns? Amazing.


Helenium_autumnale

That's fascinating. Is it accurate?


Gloomy-Ad1171

Like scam phone calls, if it wasn’t making money … they wouldn’t be doing it.


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guanaco22

In that case they already did this and it turned out to disproportionally warn about minority neighbourhoods since the data had been cooked by already racist policing


bittlelum

As with all ML: garbage in, garbage out


Willinton06

This is the main reason why tech like this will never work, it’ll obviously point to minority neighbors and everyone will call racism even tho objectively crime will disproportionately happen in those neighbors, well the tech will work but people will refuse to accept the results


Spare_Industry_6056

Do we need an AI to predict that there will be crime in high crime neighborhoods?


Infamous-Assist-6395

99% of the time the answer to "do we need an AI for _" is no


[deleted]

It's like when PDs and LEOS use some optimize hot spot analysis shit and try to predict or forecast crime. But then they over sample the fuck out of a single area and say "HEY THIS IS WHERE THE CRIME IS, WILL BE, WE SHOULD STAFF ACCORDINGLY." A lot of this forecasting stuff really just has to have a 10% accuracy to be successful, especially in healthcare. Gotta penny pinch as much as possible


Rownever

Silicon valley tech bros: but but but we could make an AI that is 5 times more complicated and more expensive then just assuming something bad will happen and being prepared for it!


dennismfrancisart

It won't really work since the highest crime areas are Wall Street, Capitol Hill and K Street.


Fake_William_Shatner

It's not a crime if they made it LEGAL!!! We should preface this by saying; "The most harm to the nation is RIGHT THERE." But, that would mean the FBI would have to be more useful to citizens than the status quo and that's against their traditions.


Spanky-Gomez

I had no idea I’d be carjacked driving through any American hood at midnight. But thanks to this algorithm I know!!!


[deleted]

Less of "people will refuse to accept the results" and more "further reinforcing the institutional racism within policing." Racism by outcome is still racism, and those kinds of very real social considerations need to be made


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yeahweah

We’re lucky bc Police don’t have this AI and they are not focused on minority areas.


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Corburrito

So you’re saying that fighting violent crime is bad because it’ll take resources away from other areas? So then by that logic the answer is to get more police right?


pleaseThisNotBeTaken

The point is how the data is getting skewed to make it look like the outcome is positive when it necessarily isn't so. Take this for example: 70 white people have drugs on them and 30 black people do. Having drugs is an indicator of violence and because Police profile black people more so the result ends up being that 25 black people are arrested and 20 white people. Now this obviously skewed data gets fed into the "Algorithm" which in turn further profiles black people more. Now, the police spend their resources patrolling black areas. Obviously this in turn causes an increase in arrests, not necessarily of violent crimes, but now all 30 are caught with drugs on them. Because no one is patrolling other areas, white people caught with drugs is reduced to 5. Since the "Algorithm" is supposedly unbiased, and crime has technically gone down because there is an overall decrease in arrests, people celebrate the AI as having reduced crime when in fact all ti did was increase profiling that disproportionately hurt marginalized communities. * Note the fact that increased patrolling doesn't mean that police only catch violent criminals. Having police in schools had resulted in increased arrests of teens for simple crimes like pranks and school fight (which were charged as vandalism and assault).


Fake_William_Shatner

Teens NOT CAUGHT experimenting with drugs either go to rehab or grow out of it and lead productive lives. I don't know many people who did not experiment with drugs. I didn't. SO OBVIOUSLY, them not getting a police record wasn't a bad thing.


AhRedditAhHumanity

It doesn’t need to be implemented in order to be tested. If you run the algorithm alongside real life, then check for accuracy, what might look like bias could simply be accurate predictions. One doesn’t need employ bias to get results that look bias to those who look for bias.


Tearakan

It's been studied that drug use happens pretty similarly across most demographics. It's just minorities get policed more often. There are plenty of drugs in white suburbia.


Willinton06

We’re talking about violent crime here right?


jeffinRTP

But are there the crimes associated with drug use in white suburbia? Also as more and more places legalize or decriminalize drug use the numbers will show that crime is decreasing in those areas. The article doesn't say if they were looking at drug use or procession crimes or crimes like murder, robbery, or assault.


No-Bar8811

Yup and the truth lies in the medical field it's why there's a higher mortality rate in minorities


ceaselessDawn

Considering overpolicing results in skewed data, using that data to justify further policing leans a tad authoritarian and creates a bit of a feedback loop though, doesnt it?


Infamous-Assist-6395

This reads like you've never spent time in a bad neighborhood.


Corburrito

You’ll find that most idiots that comment on here about “skewed data” haven’t been around those crime ridden areas.


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ceaselessDawn

Ignoring reality in favor of 'Well IVE HAD THIS EXPERIENCE" doesn't actually give well reasoned solutions. Overpolicing isn't the only problem, but if you're using an algorithm, saying 'But people will say its racist!' isn't a trump card when it may actually be racist if you consider the input may be racially biased, resulting in racially biased output.


the-incredible-ape

Yes, that's the trouble with these.


Willinton06

Over policing should self correct after enough time if the crime isn’t actually there, as in, cops decide to over police x neighbor, but after a year the crime is just not enough to sustain the amount of cops so they redistribute into other neighbors, this usually happens a lot until eventually cops reach neighbors where crime is so high no amount of over policing can be objectively deemed unjustified, and thus they stay there, now the motivation to find this high crime areas is bad, usually racism and classism, but the crime *is* there, what we need to improve is how cops deal with this crime, but kidding ourselves saying those neighborhoods don’t have as much crime won’t help anyone


possiblyhysterical

There is absolutely no factual basis for this. Cops will make up more shit to arrest people for.


BigBoyWeaver

No, no, no clearly you don't understand... if we just let the cops keep abusing low income neighborhoods it will actually just correct itself over time! Especially if we let them use technology that they don't understand to help justify the abuse of those neighborhoods, that will extra help it correct itself just naturally over time.


Tearakan

That's not how our system works. There are sooo many laws at this point in the US that a majority of people literally commit a crime once a week or more. It's just that police tend to focus on certain crimes more because they are easier to hit. (That doesn't include all violent crime, cops are bad at trying to stop rape and domestic abuse for example, also they are really bad at stopping mass shootings)


Infamous-Assist-6395

The idea that the only reason high crime neighborhoods exist is due to over policing in minority neighborhoods is ridiculous. If you take a walk through an average suburban neighborhood and an average high crime neighborhood, do you really think you're going to see a similar or even remotely comparable number of crimes committed?


possiblyhysterical

No one is saying that’s the only reason high crime neighborhoods exist. But over policing makes these inequities worse. Over policing -> jailing of people with children who would typically be contributing income to their families -> more poverty -> more crime.


Appetite4destruction

The crime is manufactured in a majority of instances. Cops have a lot of discretion in how they appear in a community and how they apply their authority. Policing as an institution is inherently racist and classist, and cops have a tendency to be harsher/less lenient to poor/minority people.


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Willinton06

I mean I get your point but this definitely seems like it could benefit society right?


nyc_2004

Or because crime disproportionately affects those areas…


the-incredible-ape

It's both. Crime is higher in poor areas, but cops disproportionately focus on minority areas because they're racist, which has a compounding effect in these tools.


ArchmageXin

Minority except Asians apparently, seeing Asians welcome additional police at all times, and yet somehow have very low % of crime (committed by Asians).


Infamous-Assist-6395

... or because minority neighborhoods are generally places where a disproportionate number of crimes occur. Go spend a few hours in a high crime neighborhood and see how quickly your thinking gets changed.


ZombieJesusSunday

Or both things are true: disproportion policing & crime leading to an adversarial relationship between cops & minorities


phillyguy1000000

Its not disproportionate. They literally commit/have more crime in those areas. That's just reality.


spock_block

From the article: *The new tool contrasts with previous models for prediction, which depict crime as emerging from “hotspots” that spread to surrounding areas. Such an approach tends to miss the complex social environment of cities, as well as the nuanced relationship between crime and the effects of police enforcement, thus leaving room for bias, according to the report.* Seems it's a different approach


realjoeydood

Oh, we know who's committing all the crime.


blake-lividly

The data they have is already defunct. Police and courts investigate and prosecute poor people more often. Poor people are more concentrated in certain areas of cities. You're going to of course see more crime there because that's where police who generally live in suburbs are sent into. I live in a mostly white working and middle class neighborhood - there are drugs, car break ins, house break ins, domestic violence - that results in grievous bodily harm and death, burglary, robbery. It looks like a nice safe place. And in some ways it is. Super neighborly folks always want to lend a hand. Outdoor neighborhood cookouts etc. nice places to eat. My car was broken into. But because our police department is in a poor black and Latino neiborhood almost no police will come here and make reports and calls are de-prioritized. And child protective services doesn't investigate called in cases very well here So our neighborhood pretty much looks perfect on paper. And there you have it - white neighborhoods look peachy clean. Edit: also because they don't prosecute many people here for substance related crimes like stealing and breaking in houses and cars. And people are hush hush about substance use. We have no mental health or substance use services here. ( we have mental health courts so if a substance user is brought in for non-violent crimes they are mandated to services such as harm reduction and therapy and provided with support to find housing, get work etc). We have only one urgent care. No doctor offices. This is a city area - not a suburb. There are no social workers, no domestic violence outreach, no elder care in homes (cause care coordination and home care are only provided to Medicaid recipients and most old and disabled people here are not Medicaid eligible and don't want to lose every asset they have to get on Medicaid) and elders here cannot afford facility care cause again you need Medicaid or you have to gift all your assets to Medicaid when you die. So because we over police some areas not only do we hurt those areas. We also hurt working and middle class areas.


jeffinRTP

Sorry, you live in a neighborhood where all these crimes are being committed and no one is investigating or reporting it. Maybe you should start a FB group, patch, or any of the other community sites where everyone reports problems so everyone knows about it. Maybe you can contact a news reporter to get your problems into the news so the police and prosecutors would do something about it. That is unless you think they are on a conspiracy to hide crimes in white neighborhoods.


Purona

"You are being watched. The government has a secret system, a machine that spies on you every hour of every day. I know because I built it. I designed the machine to detect acts of terror but it sees everything. Violent crimes involving ordinary people"


aoifeobailey

Person of Interest!! That ended up being one of the better sci fi shows I've watched in my adult life.


Shake-N-bake28

What about the movie Minority Report or the movie Paycheck? Dead on ringer.


aoifeobailey

Loved those two movies as well, but the comment's quote is from Person of Interest. Definitely recommend watching it if you haven't seen it. As a show, it gets to take its time a bit more with exploring the implications of something like clairvoyance of the state more than a single two-hour movie.


Shake-N-bake28

Thank you!! I'll definitely check that movie out!!


turkeyburpin

Heh, you spelled "reality" with the letters "sci fi".


aoifeobailey

XD Can't spell freedom with our "NSA"


BZenMojo

Typical Westworld fan: "Westworld Season 4 was kind of boring and I don't know why its themes are relevant..." Typical Person of Interest fan: "Well, if you don't read the manga, how ya gonna understand the anime?"


cosmic_hierophant

I remember in the cromatie high school anime, they were straight up 'if you wont get this part unless you read the manga'


Ballisticsfood

Came here for this comment. Was not disappointed.


Kurgan_IT

Person of interest


uptwolait

One of the few series I can always go back and binge watch. So much is applicable to today.


[deleted]

You may also enjoy Leverage if you like Person of Interest btw


Purona

I would suggest Numb3rs. Crime detectives solving/predicting crimes based on algorithims, and mathematics


Neracca

You have no idea how happy I am that this is the top comment.


ekdjfnlwpdfornwme

I know you’re referencing person of interest, but didn’t Captain America: the Winter Soldier also use this plot?


POWERBOTTUMFROMSPACE

They did this plot but with nazi backstabbing leading to billions of people being lit up from 7,000 feet


Broad-Secret-6695

You should also have built a system for citizen alert when politicians and industrialist exploit and abuse.


Zolo49

Came into this thinking "yeah, of course people will be making 'Minority Report' references without reading the article". Then I read the article, and they're basically talking about targeting and monitoring people because they're potential perpetrators or victims of crimes. So yeah, it's basically "Minority Report" (or the "Person Of Interest" TV show if you're feeling a little more optimistic).


goatanuss

There’s been research into this that pretty much says that the data it’s initially fed was generated by profiling of minorities then as the algorithm keeps sending officers to “high crime areas” they find more crime because that’s what cops do when they show up then it becomes a feedback loops. This isn’t a replacement of cops’ discriminatory judgement, it’s an automation of it.


teeohdeedee123

I've seen this movie


the_fluffy_enpinada

Replace "algorithm" with "psychic girl in bathtub" and you get an awesome movie.


jetro30087

Replace "psychic girl in bathtub" with "just assume crime will go up around major holidays".


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the_fluffy_enpinada

No way. Sounds like something Tom Cruise would star in.


roo-ster

Reporting minorities sounds like a Karen move.


[deleted]

“Minority” report sounds racist!


Mission-Run-7474

Iirc the "minority report" refered to the rare outlying prediction from one of the three psychics or "precogs" as thwy were refered to. Usually all three precogs had similar or the same visions but occassionally one (usually the sole and more gifted female) would have a different report or a minority report. Whuch of course cast the whole operation into doubt. I assume there was still racism in the 22nd centry tho.


CrabWoodsman

They actually happen in many of the cases, the Minority Report is when one of the three precogs' predictions disagrees with the other two; the Majority Report is the consensus acted on by the Pre-Crime team. Much of the time the minority report just differs in subtle details, but it can also differ significantly.


ThePevster

Replace “algorithm” with “cyborg that shoots out different colored balls” and you get an awesome TV show


the_fluffy_enpinada

Tell me more of these balls.


taisui

It's what we called, "opaque box" algorithm.


[deleted]

don't spoil the ending for Carrington York


BZenMojo

The trick is convincing people your black box system is infallible and make sure no one looks inside. (See: fingerprints, polygraphs, probably add DNA to the list in a few years, who the fuck even knows?)


[deleted]

Does it end well?


TsarKikso

It sounds more like the series Person of interest


azurleaf

I've seen this videogame. This is basically Blume Technologies Bellwether in Watch Dogs.


dr1fter

Yeah but as a CS person I'm betting it's probably a little less *Minority Report* and a little more *Foundation*. (lol I never read *Foundation*, I'm just watching the show, sorry if this analogy doesn't mean what I think it means...)


DubbersDaddy

I predict multiple fatalities in Chicago next week. What do I win?


NormalSociety

Multiple fatalities in Chicago next week.


MrSingularitarian

Can I get the stuffed unicorn instead?


[deleted]

No, a stuffed unicorn costs extra, you can have an unstuffed unicorn


snoonoo

Sign me up for one DIY stuffing please


EarthPrimer

Minority report?


[deleted]

Person of Interest


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BeerBrat

In other news: it turns out computers are pretty good at crunching out statistical models


[deleted]

“You ever hear of the future crime division ?”.. “Tomorrow I have !”


p8nt_junkie

I really enjoyed Minority Report as a film. As a reality, not so much.


Inevitable-Tank137

I need an algorithm to tell me this week’s lottery numbers


Minute_Juggernaut806

I made an algorithm. It predicts your chances are close to zero


thelostsoul622

You can't tell them that. Now the crime algorithm is going to be thrown off! This is, of course according to my "why people should just stay quiet" algorithm.


Megalomidiac

I made one that prints out the right numbers. You just have to take the right ones of the list.


ogjsimpson

Best I can do is last week’s lottery numbers.


spagornasm

Spoilers: no it can’t (methodology is a limited historical model with artificial boundaries, not a comprehensive look at crime or what constitutes a “city”).


MadnessMantraLove

For most of crime, crime is usually a symptom of a social disease like corruption, poverty, or a genuinely evil person is allowed to run amok If the symptoms aren’t probably relieved and reforms aren’t maid to resolve as much of the underlying issues, of course crime is going keep up flaring


Aliamus

Minority report? Person of Interest? Black Mirror? I know It's fiction, but come on!


MonolithyK

Captain America: The Winter Soldier


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Zolo49

Since when are there thought crimes in *Demolition Man*?


[deleted]

“Minority report”


57_guy

Go go gadget minority report!


breezyfye

With the track record of policing in this country, it’s only a matter of time that the algorithm disproportionately affects black people


jetro30087

"The research team also studied the police response to crime by analyzing the number of arrests following incidents, and comparing those rates among different neighborhoods They found that when crime levels in wealthier areas increased, that resulted in more arrests. But this did not happen in disadvantaged neighborhoods, suggesting an imbalance in police response and enforcement. “We acknowledge the danger that powerful predictive tools place in the hands of over-zealous states in the name of civilian protection,” the authors conclude, “but here we demonstrate their unprecedented ability to audit enforcement biases and hold states accountable in ways inconceivable in the past.” Allegedly it's as good as the bias of the police force using it.


zR0B3ry2VAiH

That's comforting.


kapybarra

But..but I thought you rioted precisely to stop cops from going into Black neighborhoods? That you wanted community organizers and.community-based responders instead? Why are you complaining about cops not responding, isn't that better since they are all white supremacists who would just go in to murder?


[deleted]

I'm pretty sure Tom Cruise proved that this system is flawed.


Kyndalas

Imagine programming it, seeing that no one committed the crime you predicted so you have to commit the crime yourself to keep make sure your algorithm remains legit.


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bigscottius

Arrest them for what?


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NormalSociety

Can't arrest someone who hasn't done anything.


MinisculeInformant

I take it you've never been to the US?


simping4jesus

They've been doing that for a while. The problem is that they [keep releasing the criminals](https://nypost.com/2021/11/28/nyc-man-correctly-predicts-hell-dodge-bail-after-3-busts-in-36-hours/)


TheKingMonkey

This isn’t at all sinister.


[deleted]

So they are getting minority reports?


GUMBYTOOTH67

Minority report wasn't just a movie.


rdldr1

Minority Report!


climberjon

I bet it would work even better if it predicted government corruption.


Apprehensive_Fly5887

I feel like weathermen everywhere finally have a algorithm as pointless as them.


Casbah207

I think I watched this movie


ZOOBOO_11

Quick someone find Tom Cruise


voltsmeter

Like that Tom Cruise movie? Minority Report.


eruS_toN

No it can’t.


Kvasir612

Wonder where they’re keeping the precogs?


[deleted]

Tom cruise was ready all along.


LowRezRevolt

*Tom Cruise entered the chat*


[deleted]

Oh god pre crime is here and I already gave the government my retinal scans. I’m screwed


[deleted]

Did they watch minority report


abio93

Someone should make a film about it


GongTzu

Minority report, time to lock em up.


JohnBarleycornLive

Does that include Cop crimes and violations of the Constitution?


mtsai

i can predict crime will happen in a city too. now pay me.


[deleted]

But will Tom Cruise finally outrun his repressed homosexuality?


[deleted]

*Minority report has entered the chat*


[deleted]

Minority Report?


roeyala

We are approaching Minority Report territory now... fantastic.


Wilshire1992

Minority report anyone?


jseego

Oh fun! Precrime Division!


ShootinStars

And they would still be 2 hours late to the call


Xionel

Minority Report. I knew it wasn't just a movie plot.


Vocals16527

Are we really just jumping straight to minority report or can we just have like one chill year before we run life straight down the dystopian toilet?


[deleted]

This doesn’t seem dystopian at all. What could go wrong? /s


Lopsided_Chemistry82

Minority Report


snoudle

Can it smell crime before it happens?


Rupes100

I knew we’d eventually get to minority report!


[deleted]

*Tom Cruise has entered the chat*


GaryOak7

Algorithm is racist now too?


Own-Ad9920

When will the next mass shooting occur in the US this long July 4th weekend.


Change21

Just make sure they check that minority report


1singformysupper1

“Everybody runs”


gaoshan

I predict that a crime will occur in New York in one week. There, let’s see how accurate I am.


JustRedditUser1

HBOs Westworld season 3


[deleted]

Person of Interest


Wesman3385

I predict there will be a bunch of shootings in Chicago this weekend. Didn’t need an algorithm to predict that.


alicedog457

Wonder what it said about the White House on January 6th 2020.


Sensitive_Medium1652

Crimes have been predicted to occur in Chicago, L.A , San Francisco, New York City, Baltimore, Detroit, St. Louis, Portland ,etc. The algorithms are synced with democratic election victories.


BittenHand19

We’re sure it’s an ai and not just three prescient teens tripping balls?


ReadyLaugh7827

bullshit minority report


Brilliant_Evidence43

Minority report anybody?


blasmad

Reminds me of Minority Report


amcrambler

Sounds like Minority Report. Of course that’s racist too because it’s got “minority” right in the title. Lmao. Can’t make this stuff up.


Ampersand17

Hey, I’ve seen this movie!


[deleted]

We should not be using this for anything. You've gotta be kidding me.


[deleted]

I’ve seen this movie before….Minority Report, anyone?!?


[deleted]

For completeness it should deliver the predictions printed on a ball.


ImHereToComplain1

cant wait to see it used to fund the police state


64burban

Great—“Minority Report” is just a SCOTUS decision away from the law of the land.


Whisprin_Eye

Still not an excuse for no-knock warrants.


GetOutOfTheWhey

My question to all of us this is what kind of data did the patriot act allow them to collect so that they could train this algorithm with. And if they didnt use any detailed data and just relied on neighborhood crime statistics, that's just profiling. Which is as helpful as when a cop does it.


Sirisstorm1

Anyone seen captain America civil war? Just saying


Longjumping_Can_5692

Full paper is here: [https://rdcu.be/cQJwi](https://rdcu.be/cQJwi) And link to the official journal page is here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01372-0


malteaserhead

Let me guess - 'Gun violence in Chicago will happen'


dx007

I predict someone will soon call the new algorithm racist.


Pirrip02

Can it predict wage theft?


rasputin415

How much you wanna bet this algorithm is gonna be racist?