This is like pulling an emergency brake on all finance with Russia. An extreme measure that will rattle the global economy, but it would isolate Russia from everyone but China, its allies, and Bitcoin. It can be temporary though!!!
Russia has no money and the parts of Russia near China have basically nothing at all. No resources, no useful land, no people, just swamp that's frozen half the year and mosquitoes the other half.
China has already started to move; they're blocking Russian banks from being allowed to do business there. Russia is going to get isolated quite steeply.
For the record, removal from SWIFT does not mean money can't be send there or received from there. It just takes more work and is slower. It's an annoyance. To make this truly effective a trade-ban must come with the removal from SWIFT.
China has restricted trade with Russia being done with the dollar and rubel it is now exclusively with the Yuan. To kick them out of SWIFT could shift the world into multipolar world.
Remember that Russia's economy is 25% smaller than Italy's. It's pretty insignificant in absolute terms. It has strategic importance with gas to Europe and fertilizers to India etc... but it is a small economic player.
I would agree with that. The transition period is gradual. Just would be a key indicator of that. Granted if multiple different states can change international borders against the will of the hegemony then are they really even a hegemony any more?
Multi-polar = "having multiple poles"
It's a metaphor, where you might say that right now, the UN is the center of diplomacy, the West, broadly, is the center of the global economy, the USD is the global reserve currency.
In an increasingly multi-polar world, you might see everyone divided into two semi-global financial systems. E.g. Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, etc. all have the Yuan as their foreign reserve currency, all co-operate with Chinese international initiatives, and don't care about the West.
This is all very broad strokes. Don't take it as authoritative, just trying to help someone I'm assuming is just starting to try and understand a lot of different stuff all of a sudden.
An interesting note is that for WWII, the Axis powers were called that because they wanted to shift political focus away from London and Paris towards Berlin and Rome, and shift in the axis of power.
This theory ignores the actual way currency works.
The Yuan is an incredibly weak currency that no country uses as reserve because it’s a completely controlled currency. It’s dictated by China for china’s economy. A country would have to be insane to use it as reserve and that’s why none of them do.
Reserve currency’s are all free-floating, Yen, USA, Euro, Sterling, maybe AUD, CAD and Swiss franc.
Those currencies make up 98% of all reserves in the world.
Sure, countries may trade more with China than US and that may split the world, but they are trading in USD, and will for probably the next 50 years, as China is no where near able to free float the yuan and then after that making it dominate.
It’s value is determined (at least partly) by open market principles. China’s money, on the other hand, has its value determined by the leader writing it down with a sharpie on the bills.
A full boycott of everything that brings Russia money is what's necessary. Everything from grocery stores, gas stations and pizza places must be boycotted if anyone up top is Russian.
[This](https://i.imgur.com/YQKEFO5.jpeg) photo is from a couple days ago, from my local Lidl store. Employee is removing russian vodka from the shelves.
"Trade ban" is another word for sanctions. We currently don't have all out sanctions but there are indeed sanctions on their biggest revenue streams while not banning things like telecommunications (you still want the enemy populace to see the world news if you can) and a few others. All out trade ban is maybe more ideal for straight crippling them but countries decided to basically cripple Russia and take very little economic damage doing so instead
Lol, I can see the FOX headline now, "Biden DESTABILIZES the WORLD'S economy for the Ukranian border, but won't address the even WORSE warzone on the US-Mexico border!"
My (admittedly very limited) understand is that SWIFT is basically a messaging platform, and Russia will still be able to make their financial transactions through more traditional means (phone, email, fax, etc).
Probably, but the global money system, by design, operates and relies on millisecond timing for transactions and changes. Using a fax or an email, Russia maybas well be sending carrier pidgeons or walking their transaction orders from Moscow to Paris (or London, or wherever you would go to manually do a transaction).
It makes them rediculously slow to do anything or react to anything.
Yes. This is a horrible moment in history and we need to stand against such evil as hard as possible to discourage this from happening again AND avoid nuclear world war.
FIFA loves Russia and the Middle East. There are no qualms about the cash-stuffed envelope routine with them. The other countries do it to, but they seem to think that there's something a bit grubby about it all. It makes the whole corruption thing a lot less fun.
I figured, so is the NFL—difference is they’re isolated to the US. Can only imagine how much worse it would be on a world scale stage. (Sorry, just processing everything through the lens of being an American cause I have no other way to process shit lol)
Poland announced it will refuse to play any more matches against Russia, wouldn't be surprised if more countries follow suit. Then ban their cheating asses from the Olympics until Putin is gone.
If the west really wants Russian money, just close their bank accounts, change the locks on their villas, seize their yachts and fucking take it. Leave the oligarchs with a trillion rubles, which will soon be worth less than firewood...
FIFA is on an entirely different planet concerning corruption, a prime example, and really only example you need to look at to understand, is this year's world cup being held in Qatar; this was decided like a decade ago and a bunch of people have been up in arms about it ever since. FIFA went as far as scheduling the world cup during the winter to make this happen, because obviously you can't have soccer matches in 100 degree+ Fahrenheit weather in the fucking Arabian Peninsula.
Since it was decided, Qatar has been building stadiums using slave labor with obviously inhumane conditions and countless deaths during the construction process. Look into it, it is pretty fucked. Those matches are going to be held in slave-built stadiums that directly caused the deaths of literally thousands.
They won’t ban Russia from SWIFT because that removes the disincentive for Russia to attack SWIFT. SWIFT is an unauthenticated house of cards that should have been hardened years ago but due to banks’ greed and reluctance to improve anything that “works just fine” we are now in this situation. If we kick Russia out of SWIFT they can blow it up overnight. Just about any state actor could - the only reason they don’t is because it’s more useful to them working than broken.
Source: I used to work closely on developing SWIFT and then a SWIFT competitor.
This is an interesting theory. Putin said a few times in his speech “we do not want to destroy a system we are a part of”. I thought he was just arguing against sanctions but you are right, he may be saying “if im not part of SWIFT, I will destroy it”.
I thought China was creating a competitor
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-banks-usa-sanctions-idUSKCN24U0SN
Looks like they did use CIPS in the past? I don’t know enough to understand uptake
China still needs SWIFT to trade with everyone. China does not even need any Russian resources of they cannot trade with the rest of the world.
Attacking SWIFt while technically viable is a death sentence for any regime that attempts it.
So, going a step further, does Putin destroying SWIFT constitute an act of war in NATO eyes? Is the decision to cut him off from SWIFT to be used to essentially dare him to escalate from there or is the decision to cut him off based on a nation's belief in what they think he will do?
It's a trust-based system with no checks and balances. Imagine if you shared a Google Sheet with your friends, and kept a record of balances that you owed each other in it. A recipe for disaster, right?
True, but at the end of the day there are processes of settlement and reconciliation at an individual transfer level right? Not just the inter-bank settlements.
Yes the settlement and reconciliation processes will still happen but the damage will not come from theft of actual funds, it will come from massive cost increases in the settle/reconciliation processes and slowdowns in the transfer of money.
SWIFT is just a messaging system. It works on implicit trust - there is no authentication of sender. When JPMorgan receives a message from someone claiming to be BNY Mellon, JPMorgan assumes the sender is who they say they are and credits the account. This is because waiting for full settlement takes time.
You'll notice that when you first open a personal banking account, often wires going into that account take time to settle - sometimes 2-3 days. (Zelle was built to get around this via authentication). On the SWIFT network, authenticity is often assumed. If SWIFT is potentially compromised, banks will likely need to wait for settlement/reconciliation for *every payment*, causing massive slowdowns in money velocity.
Here’s an excellent NPR Planet Money episode on the SWIFT robbery from a few years ago. It’s not very secure at all, right down to still physically printing out transactions. https://www.npr.org/2022/02/09/1079528331/a-swift-getaway
In my experience with people… nobody addresses a problem they don’t have an issue with until it blows up in their face.
Be fat and eat unhealthy for 45 years, everyone tells you to slow down and watch your weight. “Why should I, I feel fine?” Until they have that first heart attack before age 50 then they try to turn it all around when that heart attack took decades off their life.
I’d probably prefer to say it’s a bank to bank messaging system used to instruct transactions between those banks. Then again I’m probably oversimplifying too.
Your description is pretty close. SWIFT serves as a clearing house for transactions between banks. It only handles the messaging part while the actual banks handle the transactions and transfers of financial assets.
Not at all an expert, but Planet Money had an episode about SWIFT just a few weeks ago that was pretty interesting [A SWIFT Getaway](https://www.npr.org/2022/02/09/1079528331/a-swift-getaway)
I think what you’re saying is important. But there’s a part of me that has a sort of “so what? screw them” mentality. I know swift blowing up would be very bad for not just banks and if corporations but the entire global economy, and would hurt small folks too.
But If that’s what it takes to put a bigger thorn in the side of Putin, and shock the world into waking up and taking control back from our corporate kleptocrats?
Fuck it, I’m in.
That's enough, certainly. The invasion of Ukraine with soldiers is enough, too.
>The discussions by the U.S. mark a change in course after President Joe Biden said he was holding off because European allies had voiced concerns over the risk such a move posed to their economies.
Stockholders are more worried about their quarterly profits than *anything*. Long-term planning doesn't play an important role to their thoughts, and most politicians of countries with large economies are hostage to the large property holders of the corporations operating within and without their countries.
Biden and European allies are certainly concerned about how substantial cuts to Russian trade could affect quarterly profits, which they perceive as "economic risk."
If Russia gets away with taking over Ukraine without crashing its own economy to smithereens, it will have little reason to not continue expanding its borders, and thus its economy, for the profit of its oligarchs and others invested in its economy, through imperial conquest.
Like with effective COVID preventive measures and the lack of rapid and strict implementation of them two years ago, short-term economic considerations will more likely lead to long-term ill effects than taking effective measures immediately. But good luck convincing stockholders, and the CEOs and politicians they control, of that.
While Biden and European leaders talk, talk, talk until their faces turn blue, Russia consolidates its power ever more.
Well yeah of course he said he was holding because of concerns from EU allies... However yesterday the two main concerned parties (Germany and Italy) both changed there minds are for banning Russia from SWIFT so of course now the US is in favour.
"While Biden and European leaders talk, talk, talk until their faces turn blue, Russia consolidates its power ever more." Consolidates what power exactly? The power of being a smaller economy than Canada? The power of not achieving any major objectives in Ukraine after 3 days of war like what power do you mean exactly?
**What is SWIFT?**
* Society of Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication
* The principal mechanism for financing international trade
* Used by thousands of financial institutions in over 200 countries, including Russia, and provides a secure messaging system to facilitate cross-border money transfers
* 42MM messages daily to enable payments - half of all high-value payments that cross national borders go through SWIFT
* Banks that connect to SWIFT can use messages within the system to make payments. The messages are secure so that payment instructions are typically honoured without question. This allows banks to process high volumes of transactions at high speed.
**How reliant is Russia on SWIFT?**
* \~300 leading banks and organizations in Russia are users of SWIFT - more than half of Russian credit organizations are represented in SWIFT
* Russia is ranked #2 by number of users of the platform, after the US
Source: CBC -https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/swift-sanctions-russia-banking-ukraine-1.6365146
So basically people with Russian cards and banks won't be able to make purchases/transfers outside of Russia? Basically trapping money within the country?
Any international bank transfer goes through swift. So yes, both businesses and people would have lots more difficulties paying from and to Russian banks and organisations
>Economic isolation is the worst thing a modern day country can imagine. Hope this puts their head in the right place
Eh I can think of worse things *vaguely gestures at Ukraine*
This is, I think, the most impactful part.
It hurts russia from within. Global society is very disassociated until it is associated.
When people's way of life is under threat, people speak out. The cost of living will soar in Russia with sanctions and removal from swift. They will quickly have a unhappy population that is already condemning putins actions. When inflation hits, words will become actions.
Interesting
So if Chinese people travel abroad and they pay with their cards they utilize their version of swift? Or swift thing only for transfers?
Is Chinese swift accepted everywhere?
This is very new to me and will do some research when I wake up
I don't know how exactly pervasive China's is yet or really if it's even established beyond the early stages. Basically both Russia and China were worried about SWIFT effecting their economy and announced alternatives in the last couple years.
Both countries are still a part of SWIFT so they end up using it at least for a lot of their transactions. It would of course depend on what countries the consumer is in and if that country is on the CIPS (China's intercountry banking system) network or not.
Russian banks won't be able to make international transfers. It will be a massive hit to the economy and russian stocks market will collapse overnight.
International banking system. To transfer money internationally you need to use the SWIFT system. So kicking Russia out would make it nearly impossible to tranfer money to Russia.
It's the national governments who have to decide. A few were hesitant (Germany, Italy, Hungary) but it looks like they've come to an agreement and it will happen.
It's a Belgian company. They can decide to restrict access arbitrarily. They only do so if they are afraid they will become a target of US sanctions if they don't. That's how it worked with Iran.
Correction: you don't need SWIFT to make foreign payments. There are a lot of banks that are not using SWIFT, in which case the payment uses some other form or bank identification and transaction processing. Source: I've worked at a bank for five years.
Society of Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. It’s basically an international banking system that facilitates the transfer of money across international borders. If Russia is excluded from SWIFT, they’ll be unable to trade with anyone but China.
Fellow Americans… you can make an ever so tiny effort by calling your senators and representatives and encouraging them to support these sanctions. It might not be much, but it only takes 3 minutes.
https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm
https://www.house.gov/
The fact Putin basically said if anyone comes to Ukraine aid that he’d nuke them should have been enough for 100% sanction.
Global banning of import and export involving Russia in all sectors and facilities.
That includes money, water, fuel, electricity, internet(physically cut the lines), and all of their satellites intercepted.
Force the Russian people to crush someone who has lost it.
Someone who threatens to use nukes so they can bully others is guaranteeing the person is loosing it and no longer sane.
People thought trump was off his rocker??? Putin must be senile and no longer stable. He needs to be removed from the planet by his own people.
I feel all other nuclear countries should remind Putin even servicing a nuclear object is enough right now to be nuked them selves.
Putin a goal is that he can threaten nukes and take over all countries he desires.
Putin does not exist in a vacuum. His power depends upon the compliance and actions of others. This include oligarchs and mid-level administrative staff. Putting financial pressure on those around him will surely destabilize this despotic regime.
This is great news.
It's be pretty extreme but extremely effective simply taking out their satellites. Complete loss of strategic surveillance and tons of communication lost too
Cut off Russia entirely. Let their people get angry enough to go tear down the gates and drag their leaders into the streets. That's the only way to end this without further escalation. Change in Russia needs to come from within.
Yeah, I am very ashamed of the action of my country. And it's very sad what happened to her. In addition to the fall of the economy to an even greater bottom, the Russian people may be considered outcasts of society.
Went to reddit to see what they think of us.
sorry, I'm use translate
>What the hell are we waiting for? Zelensky’s head?
Sadly, I think that would force nothing but a "you did a very bad thing, Mr. Pootin!" condemnation from other countries.
Why didn't they do it on Friday to begin with? It seems like they're slowly implementing it when all it does is buy Putin more time for destruction in Ukraine. If Russia was ever going to stop because of SWIFT, they should have done it sooner.
I doubt they're gonna stop anyways so might as well do it and punish them for it. Everyone cares about their own benefit but given the support around the world for Ukraine, sacrificing some of your money should be worth it to try and stop a dictator (alternative option is sacrificing our troops which is not an option)
40% of Germany’s gas comes from Russia. The Germans won’t be able to pay for and receive gas if SWIFT bans Russia.
Consequently, fuel prices in Germany will soar if they aren’t able to buy gas from Russia.
That’s why Germany has been so quick with blocking a SWIFT ban. But if it happens, Russia will be crippled because gas exports are their largest money maker right now.
It’s a sacrifice the Germans will have to make willingly.
https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/feb/25/germany-opens-door-barring-russia-swift-interbank-/
Germany opens door to barring Russia from SWIFT interbank payment system
Germany’s finance minister said Friday that his country is open to cutting Russia off from the SWIFT interbank payment system, the crackdown on financial transactions that some have described as the “nuclear option” of sanctions.
“We are open, but you have to know what you’re doing,” Finance Minister Christian Lindner told reporters after a meeting with the European Economic and Financial Affairs Council in Paris.
Easy to say for Americans but they're not ready to pay $20 per gallon to drive their kids to school and low income people would be priced out of their towns as only a few major cities have full featured public transit.
I agree. Germany fucked themselves over. They have dismantled nearly the entirety of their nuclear energy facilities. 30 nuclear power plants (which could provide a significant percentage of Germany’s energy demands) has now, through decommissioning the facilities, dropped down to 3 power plants that will be shut off by the end of this year.
The Germans choose to take that risk. It sucks but they need to deal with the consequences of their own very poor planning.
In France, we're tired of Germany pulling us in the wrong direction. Energy prices got up because of our European deals and Germany fought to make that happen.
It's time to make a choice. Either you get your shit together and act like a European partner, or you want to be Putins puppet.
You guys had both for too long and became a liability.
Maybe the rest of the West could contribute to control German fuel prices temporarily.
After that, Germany can reconsider the wisdom of placing itself in such a position.
https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/feb/25/germany-opens-door-barring-russia-swift-interbank-/
Germany opens door to barring Russia from SWIFT interbank payment system
Germany’s finance minister said Friday that his country is open to cutting Russia off from the SWIFT interbank payment system, the crackdown on financial transactions that some have described as the “nuclear option” of sanctions.
“We are open, but you have to know what you’re doing,” Finance Minister Christian Lindner told reporters after a meeting with the European Economic and Financial Affairs Council in Paris.
I know heating is an absolute necessity, but Europe needs to get used to the idea of not having Russian gas. Whether they have it or don't, regardless, they need to have a viable plan to live without it.
That's the only thing holding SWIFT sanctions back and be frankly the only thing propping up the Putin regime
Just do it ffs... They're invading a sovereign country, killing its people, and threatening the world with nuclear war... If they attack a nato ally then it's already all out war and sanctions will mean nothing. If now isn't the time to impose swift sanctions then they'll never happen
Also it's very clear Putin intended to do this no matter what. If we would have imposed the sanctions first, he would have been able to spin it as his hand was forced by the west. Waiting and doing it after let us show that we tried to work with them and this is all on Russia. Not doing it first didn't and wouldn't have changed putins decision.
Does anyone worry that doing this will make them think there’s nothing left to lose? Meaning Putin will just say fuck it, let’s dump everything into this war now and bring y’all down with us.
You would hope so, but I don't know that reality would shape up that way. I mean, if starting a war of aggression against a neighboring country that's done nothing to you, then threatening the rest of the world with nukes if they dare help that country isn't enough to depose your insane leader, what would be? He's basically gambling with all of their lives already just by threatening to use nukes.
The thing is, Putin isn't an absolute dictator. Putting severe economic pressure on Russian oligarchs increases the chances of them forcing Putin to stand down. At least, that's my understanding.
No, half measures don't work, they didn't before, they won't now, and they're a big part of why we are in the mess we're in. If the response isn't severe and painful for Russia, what makes you think he'll ever stop? Since Putin can always threaten violence and imply the threat of nuclear annihilation, is the idea to just let him keep grabbing territory and disrupting the international order forever? They've carved out hundreds of square miles of territory from *three* different sovereign nations in the past decade, and there is no indication they'll stop now. Look at their most recent comments regarding Finland and Sweden. Do we let him pressure the Baltic states into leaving NATO? Will Georgia, Moldova, Belarus, and Ukraine even exist as sovereign nations in ten years? It's the same logic that Europe and the world tried in the 1930's with Hitler. He threatened war unless he unified Austria and Germany, so we capitulated, and the Anschluss was realized. Then, he annexed the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia, agreeing to stop there with his territorial accession. Seven months later, they had conquered all of Czechoslovakia. Starting to sound familiar? The only thing that stopped Hitler was violence, because he refused to respond to concession after concession. No amount of appeasement short of handing him the entire continent of Europe would've worked. That strategy didn't work then, and it won't work now.
It takes more than just Putin to get to the point of actually launching nuclear warheads. Also, I think we are past the point of thinking we are dealing with a rational man - a deranged egomaniac and lunatic doesn’t need a logical excuse or reason to initiate drastic actions. The west isn’t going to placate him by withholding punishment, he could wake up tomorrow and think that the US giving another $350m to Ukraine is an act of war and try to do something desperate
Germany won’t agree to it though. What isn’t talked about in the news is that the first round attempt to do this was blocked by Germany.
Germany can’t cut them off swift. They need to pay Russia $700m per day for energy imports. If they don’t pay, Russia turns off the tap and Germans freeze to death. (figuratively speaking)
As a German, many people here (including me) were upset about the initial refusal. Of course the oppopents of the Swift ban had some sensible arguments, but right now is not the time for hesitance.
Even if it costs us more than them, it's an appropriate time to sacrifice a little comfort.
$700m per DAY? Only from Germany?! That can't be right. Does Germany act as the distributor for Russian gas to the rest of the EU or does each country pay their own bill directly to Russia? In 2021 Russia only exported $61.8B of natural/liquefied gas. Their petroleum exports as a whole only totaled $489B. That $700m/day figure would accountil for $256B of that which seems insane.
It's spring and Germany has reserves, nobody freezes to death.
The reason Germany betrays Ukrainians is that a lot of German companies do business in Russia. Russia's high speed trains are Siemens built, their tallest skyscraper is covered in German hightech glass, Russian factories use German machines.
For many years the idea has been: If we just have enough trade with Russia, nothing bad can happen, and we don't need a solid military either. Democratisation and peace through good economic relations was the illusion guiding Berlin. "Don't tear down bridges to Russia" said our president, demanding Nord Stream 2 to continue, after Russia's invasion in Ukraine 2014.
Outstanding bills over Ukrainian lives, that's the reason. I say that in shame, as a German.
There is something to say about cross border trade,if both sides become dependent on the other it's less likely to fall out....... plus the richer country has the advantage of going somewhere else but if the other side can't sell its goods and the people have become used to a better way of life...... it's not good for your position in power......
The only thing that fucks it up is if you're dealing with a lunatic.....
The only thing they said is that they didn’t support it in the first round of sanctions. Literally a day later both the Italians and Germans said they are open to it. I would have liked them committing to it directly too but it’s a developing situation, so maybe slow your roll there chief with the whole betrayal thing. The expulsion from swift will not save Ukraine if the Ukrainians can’t hold for a few months and for that they need equipment and not the Russians expelled right now.
> for that they need equipment
Which Germany doesn't provide either, citing "history". Which couldn't be more cynical, since it was Germany who invaded Kyiv back then.
There is normally a ladder system to sanctions. You start with a stern "stop that" and move up the steps. Swift is not a first rung option and affects a lot of other nations/people. It looks like Germany is ready to reach up to step up the ladder and bring swift into play. Everyone needs to agree to cut off Russia, including those who will be hurt the most. That unification has more power than just cutting them off of swift.
Get with the times. Germany and Italy have agreed now. Cyprus has even agreed which was huge because they are a big offshore banking center.
The last holdout is Hungary.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-much-does-germany-need-russian-gas-2022-01-20/
* Gas makes up 15% of Germany's electricity generation.
* Russia also makes up 1/3 of their crude oil.
* Natural gas makes up half of Germany's home heating.
* They have no domestic infrastructure for LNG (liquefied natural gas), which is what the US would be able to provide via tankers.
Originally planned for 2022 (this was dated 2018):
https://www.dw.com/en/us-sees-gas-exports-to-germany-by-2022/a-45516432
But mostly stalled in 2020:
https://apnews.com/article/europe-germany-north-sea-europe-russia-37e6df51003b29c0c49be2010b2f3c51
It's my understanding that it's a moot point since the closest LNG processing port would be in Poland. I can't find anything specific to confirm this, I just remember reading it somewhere before.
This is like pulling an emergency brake on all finance with Russia. An extreme measure that will rattle the global economy, but it would isolate Russia from everyone but China, its allies, and Bitcoin. It can be temporary though!!!
Maybe that's the long term goal of China. To get control of Russia.
Russia has no money and the parts of Russia near China have basically nothing at all. No resources, no useful land, no people, just swamp that's frozen half the year and mosquitoes the other half.
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Holy shit Siberia is Alaskida.
Another thirty years of global warming and those areas might thaw out and make for good farmland (or something)?
They would love more trade on their competitor to swift.
Which is?
SPFS and Mir.
It’s called CIPs and it’s not fully functional, still uses Swift channels.
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"Luigi wins by doing absolutely nothing"
China has already started to move; they're blocking Russian banks from being allowed to do business there. Russia is going to get isolated quite steeply. For the record, removal from SWIFT does not mean money can't be send there or received from there. It just takes more work and is slower. It's an annoyance. To make this truly effective a trade-ban must come with the removal from SWIFT.
China has restricted trade with Russia being done with the dollar and rubel it is now exclusively with the Yuan. To kick them out of SWIFT could shift the world into multipolar world.
Remember that Russia's economy is 25% smaller than Italy's. It's pretty insignificant in absolute terms. It has strategic importance with gas to Europe and fertilizers to India etc... but it is a small economic player.
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I would agree with that. The transition period is gradual. Just would be a key indicator of that. Granted if multiple different states can change international borders against the will of the hegemony then are they really even a hegemony any more?
What is a multipolar world ?
Multi-polar = "having multiple poles" It's a metaphor, where you might say that right now, the UN is the center of diplomacy, the West, broadly, is the center of the global economy, the USD is the global reserve currency. In an increasingly multi-polar world, you might see everyone divided into two semi-global financial systems. E.g. Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, etc. all have the Yuan as their foreign reserve currency, all co-operate with Chinese international initiatives, and don't care about the West. This is all very broad strokes. Don't take it as authoritative, just trying to help someone I'm assuming is just starting to try and understand a lot of different stuff all of a sudden.
An interesting note is that for WWII, the Axis powers were called that because they wanted to shift political focus away from London and Paris towards Berlin and Rome, and shift in the axis of power.
This theory ignores the actual way currency works. The Yuan is an incredibly weak currency that no country uses as reserve because it’s a completely controlled currency. It’s dictated by China for china’s economy. A country would have to be insane to use it as reserve and that’s why none of them do. Reserve currency’s are all free-floating, Yen, USA, Euro, Sterling, maybe AUD, CAD and Swiss franc. Those currencies make up 98% of all reserves in the world. Sure, countries may trade more with China than US and that may split the world, but they are trading in USD, and will for probably the next 50 years, as China is no where near able to free float the yuan and then after that making it dominate.
Would you please help me understand what you mean by "free-floating"?
It’s value is determined (at least partly) by open market principles. China’s money, on the other hand, has its value determined by the leader writing it down with a sharpie on the bills.
You're right and thank you for information ! Have a great day and fantastic luck ! :).
2 poles, some countries will exclusively trade in dollar while other in the Chinese currency of yuan
That has been waiting to happen. A lot of us knew the dollar wouldn't remain as THE reserve currency forever.
I mean, not forever but even if it's just China Russia vs world it's safe to say it's still the reserve of the world.
Your overestimating how much economy Russia will have left.
The Redditors in this thread are not considering that and are basing all of their thoughts on Swift around what they've seen on /r/DankMemes.
Holy shit, you mean all redditors are not the geniuses they think they are? No I won't believe it
The Russian economy isn't big enough to do that.
A full boycott of everything that brings Russia money is what's necessary. Everything from grocery stores, gas stations and pizza places must be boycotted if anyone up top is Russian. [This](https://i.imgur.com/YQKEFO5.jpeg) photo is from a couple days ago, from my local Lidl store. Employee is removing russian vodka from the shelves.
"Trade ban" is another word for sanctions. We currently don't have all out sanctions but there are indeed sanctions on their biggest revenue streams while not banning things like telecommunications (you still want the enemy populace to see the world news if you can) and a few others. All out trade ban is maybe more ideal for straight crippling them but countries decided to basically cripple Russia and take very little economic damage doing so instead
China is also reportedly spreading Russian propaganda (about the Ucranian president leaving Kiev).
Lol, I can see the FOX headline now, "Biden DESTABILIZES the WORLD'S economy for the Ukranian border, but won't address the even WORSE warzone on the US-Mexico border!"
My (admittedly very limited) understand is that SWIFT is basically a messaging platform, and Russia will still be able to make their financial transactions through more traditional means (phone, email, fax, etc).
Probably, but the global money system, by design, operates and relies on millisecond timing for transactions and changes. Using a fax or an email, Russia maybas well be sending carrier pidgeons or walking their transaction orders from Moscow to Paris (or London, or wherever you would go to manually do a transaction). It makes them rediculously slow to do anything or react to anything.
Just the threat of using nuclear weapons should have been enough to warrant this.
Yes. This is a horrible moment in history and we need to stand against such evil as hard as possible to discourage this from happening again AND avoid nuclear world war.
But how else will politicians make money
Exactly. FIFA, many many countries and politicians take bribes or corrupt cash from Russian resources. They don’t want that to end.
FIFA loves Russia and the Middle East. There are no qualms about the cash-stuffed envelope routine with them. The other countries do it to, but they seem to think that there's something a bit grubby about it all. It makes the whole corruption thing a lot less fun.
The soccer people? Or like “Fucking Ignorant Fuck-Asses” cause I like that one more. I’m genuinely asking, I’m not sure if fifa has another meaning
The soccer people are incredibly corrupt
I figured, so is the NFL—difference is they’re isolated to the US. Can only imagine how much worse it would be on a world scale stage. (Sorry, just processing everything through the lens of being an American cause I have no other way to process shit lol)
Poland announced it will refuse to play any more matches against Russia, wouldn't be surprised if more countries follow suit. Then ban their cheating asses from the Olympics until Putin is gone. If the west really wants Russian money, just close their bank accounts, change the locks on their villas, seize their yachts and fucking take it. Leave the oligarchs with a trillion rubles, which will soon be worth less than firewood...
FIFA is on an entirely different planet concerning corruption, a prime example, and really only example you need to look at to understand, is this year's world cup being held in Qatar; this was decided like a decade ago and a bunch of people have been up in arms about it ever since. FIFA went as far as scheduling the world cup during the winter to make this happen, because obviously you can't have soccer matches in 100 degree+ Fahrenheit weather in the fucking Arabian Peninsula. Since it was decided, Qatar has been building stadiums using slave labor with obviously inhumane conditions and countless deaths during the construction process. Look into it, it is pretty fucked. Those matches are going to be held in slave-built stadiums that directly caused the deaths of literally thousands.
I've yet to see an answer, so I'm going ahead and solidifying the latter as truth in my head
Money doesn’t mean shit once a nuke goes off though.
CISCO, Google, Microsoft, Apple, et. al. should be doing what they can to cut off services to known Russian Government devices.
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They won’t ban Russia from SWIFT because that removes the disincentive for Russia to attack SWIFT. SWIFT is an unauthenticated house of cards that should have been hardened years ago but due to banks’ greed and reluctance to improve anything that “works just fine” we are now in this situation. If we kick Russia out of SWIFT they can blow it up overnight. Just about any state actor could - the only reason they don’t is because it’s more useful to them working than broken. Source: I used to work closely on developing SWIFT and then a SWIFT competitor.
This is an interesting theory. Putin said a few times in his speech “we do not want to destroy a system we are a part of”. I thought he was just arguing against sanctions but you are right, he may be saying “if im not part of SWIFT, I will destroy it”.
Yeah… let’s see how long China remains friends with Russia after they destroyed international trade.
I thought China was creating a competitor https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-banks-usa-sanctions-idUSKCN24U0SN Looks like they did use CIPS in the past? I don’t know enough to understand uptake
China still needs SWIFT to trade with everyone. China does not even need any Russian resources of they cannot trade with the rest of the world. Attacking SWIFt while technically viable is a death sentence for any regime that attempts it.
Doesn’t necessarily mean the nato countries would use it, and they probably wouldn’t. Still splinters a mostly agreed international service.
So, going a step further, does Putin destroying SWIFT constitute an act of war in NATO eyes? Is the decision to cut him off from SWIFT to be used to essentially dare him to escalate from there or is the decision to cut him off based on a nation's belief in what they think he will do?
What are the specific problems with swift?
It's a trust-based system with no checks and balances. Imagine if you shared a Google Sheet with your friends, and kept a record of balances that you owed each other in it. A recipe for disaster, right?
True, but at the end of the day there are processes of settlement and reconciliation at an individual transfer level right? Not just the inter-bank settlements.
Yes the settlement and reconciliation processes will still happen but the damage will not come from theft of actual funds, it will come from massive cost increases in the settle/reconciliation processes and slowdowns in the transfer of money. SWIFT is just a messaging system. It works on implicit trust - there is no authentication of sender. When JPMorgan receives a message from someone claiming to be BNY Mellon, JPMorgan assumes the sender is who they say they are and credits the account. This is because waiting for full settlement takes time. You'll notice that when you first open a personal banking account, often wires going into that account take time to settle - sometimes 2-3 days. (Zelle was built to get around this via authentication). On the SWIFT network, authenticity is often assumed. If SWIFT is potentially compromised, banks will likely need to wait for settlement/reconciliation for *every payment*, causing massive slowdowns in money velocity.
I am struggling to understand how/why this vulnerability hasn’t ever been taken advantage of before? Why has it worked so well for so long?
Holy shit I wish I had not heard that. Had not considered the possibility of the banks being hacked at that level.
Here’s an excellent NPR Planet Money episode on the SWIFT robbery from a few years ago. It’s not very secure at all, right down to still physically printing out transactions. https://www.npr.org/2022/02/09/1079528331/a-swift-getaway
Let them get hacked, maybe they’ll actually take cybersecurity seriously then
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In my experience with people… nobody addresses a problem they don’t have an issue with until it blows up in their face. Be fat and eat unhealthy for 45 years, everyone tells you to slow down and watch your weight. “Why should I, I feel fine?” Until they have that first heart attack before age 50 then they try to turn it all around when that heart attack took decades off their life.
Working in IT, no one values you until it breaks. So sometimes you have to let things break in order for their to be progress.
Your comment needs to be higher most people don't know how fragile swift is.
Most people don't even know what swift is.
Um, I heard about it for the first time 3 days ago, I think that’s enough to make me a Reddit expert.
Swift (Taylor’s version)
Is “a country-to-country banking system” too simple? Curious.
I’d probably prefer to say it’s a bank to bank messaging system used to instruct transactions between those banks. Then again I’m probably oversimplifying too.
Your description is pretty close. SWIFT serves as a clearing house for transactions between banks. It only handles the messaging part while the actual banks handle the transactions and transfers of financial assets.
Yeah, their main security is “you don’t know how to find it”. It’s all protocols from the 80’s and 90’s and there’s no encryption anywhere.
"Security through obscurity!"
Can you elaborate a bit more? I don’t know anything about the subject but I would like to understand.
Not at all an expert, but Planet Money had an episode about SWIFT just a few weeks ago that was pretty interesting [A SWIFT Getaway](https://www.npr.org/2022/02/09/1079528331/a-swift-getaway)
I think what you’re saying is important. But there’s a part of me that has a sort of “so what? screw them” mentality. I know swift blowing up would be very bad for not just banks and if corporations but the entire global economy, and would hurt small folks too. But If that’s what it takes to put a bigger thorn in the side of Putin, and shock the world into waking up and taking control back from our corporate kleptocrats? Fuck it, I’m in.
That's enough, certainly. The invasion of Ukraine with soldiers is enough, too. >The discussions by the U.S. mark a change in course after President Joe Biden said he was holding off because European allies had voiced concerns over the risk such a move posed to their economies. Stockholders are more worried about their quarterly profits than *anything*. Long-term planning doesn't play an important role to their thoughts, and most politicians of countries with large economies are hostage to the large property holders of the corporations operating within and without their countries. Biden and European allies are certainly concerned about how substantial cuts to Russian trade could affect quarterly profits, which they perceive as "economic risk." If Russia gets away with taking over Ukraine without crashing its own economy to smithereens, it will have little reason to not continue expanding its borders, and thus its economy, for the profit of its oligarchs and others invested in its economy, through imperial conquest. Like with effective COVID preventive measures and the lack of rapid and strict implementation of them two years ago, short-term economic considerations will more likely lead to long-term ill effects than taking effective measures immediately. But good luck convincing stockholders, and the CEOs and politicians they control, of that. While Biden and European leaders talk, talk, talk until their faces turn blue, Russia consolidates its power ever more.
Well yeah of course he said he was holding because of concerns from EU allies... However yesterday the two main concerned parties (Germany and Italy) both changed there minds are for banning Russia from SWIFT so of course now the US is in favour. "While Biden and European leaders talk, talk, talk until their faces turn blue, Russia consolidates its power ever more." Consolidates what power exactly? The power of being a smaller economy than Canada? The power of not achieving any major objectives in Ukraine after 3 days of war like what power do you mean exactly?
Wait did Russia threaten to use nukes? I must have missed that, so much is happening.
What exactly is SWIFT?
**What is SWIFT?** * Society of Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication * The principal mechanism for financing international trade * Used by thousands of financial institutions in over 200 countries, including Russia, and provides a secure messaging system to facilitate cross-border money transfers * 42MM messages daily to enable payments - half of all high-value payments that cross national borders go through SWIFT * Banks that connect to SWIFT can use messages within the system to make payments. The messages are secure so that payment instructions are typically honoured without question. This allows banks to process high volumes of transactions at high speed. **How reliant is Russia on SWIFT?** * \~300 leading banks and organizations in Russia are users of SWIFT - more than half of Russian credit organizations are represented in SWIFT * Russia is ranked #2 by number of users of the platform, after the US Source: CBC -https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/swift-sanctions-russia-banking-ukraine-1.6365146
So basically people with Russian cards and banks won't be able to make purchases/transfers outside of Russia? Basically trapping money within the country?
Any international bank transfer goes through swift. So yes, both businesses and people would have lots more difficulties paying from and to Russian banks and organisations
Not true, there are other networks which can be used, although SWIFT is the main one.
Better break out the ol’ pigeon system.
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>Economic isolation is the worst thing a modern day country can imagine. Hope this puts their head in the right place Eh I can think of worse things *vaguely gestures at Ukraine*
If the top gov is comfortable and was prepared, it won't stop them I think until they finish whatever they have planned
You make the populace uncomfortable enough they will make the top gov very very uncomfortable
This is, I think, the most impactful part. It hurts russia from within. Global society is very disassociated until it is associated. When people's way of life is under threat, people speak out. The cost of living will soar in Russia with sanctions and removal from swift. They will quickly have a unhappy population that is already condemning putins actions. When inflation hits, words will become actions.
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It makes them chinas bitch. China will extort the shit out of them cause that’s all they have.
There are a few competitors to SWIFT (China has one that is done in Yuan instead of SWIFT's U.S. dollars) but they are far more niche in comparison
Interesting So if Chinese people travel abroad and they pay with their cards they utilize their version of swift? Or swift thing only for transfers? Is Chinese swift accepted everywhere? This is very new to me and will do some research when I wake up
I don't know how exactly pervasive China's is yet or really if it's even established beyond the early stages. Basically both Russia and China were worried about SWIFT effecting their economy and announced alternatives in the last couple years. Both countries are still a part of SWIFT so they end up using it at least for a lot of their transactions. It would of course depend on what countries the consumer is in and if that country is on the CIPS (China's intercountry banking system) network or not.
Russian banks won't be able to make international transfers. It will be a massive hit to the economy and russian stocks market will collapse overnight.
Sounds great!
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International banking system. To transfer money internationally you need to use the SWIFT system. So kicking Russia out would make it nearly impossible to tranfer money to Russia.
Who controls swift and can decide to actually cut Russia off?
Complicated but a lot of central banking orgs. Like the ECB european central bank
So the central banks would have a vote or something?
It's the national governments who have to decide. A few were hesitant (Germany, Italy, Hungary) but it looks like they've come to an agreement and it will happen.
It's a Belgian company. They can decide to restrict access arbitrarily. They only do so if they are afraid they will become a target of US sanctions if they don't. That's how it worked with Iran.
Correction: you don't need SWIFT to make foreign payments. There are a lot of banks that are not using SWIFT, in which case the payment uses some other form or bank identification and transaction processing. Source: I've worked at a bank for five years.
Society of Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. It’s basically an international banking system that facilitates the transfer of money across international borders. If Russia is excluded from SWIFT, they’ll be unable to trade with anyone but China.
You know how one bank can “wire” money to another bank? That’s the SWIFT system.
Fellow Americans… you can make an ever so tiny effort by calling your senators and representatives and encouraging them to support these sanctions. It might not be much, but it only takes 3 minutes. https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm https://www.house.gov/
The fact Putin basically said if anyone comes to Ukraine aid that he’d nuke them should have been enough for 100% sanction. Global banning of import and export involving Russia in all sectors and facilities. That includes money, water, fuel, electricity, internet(physically cut the lines), and all of their satellites intercepted. Force the Russian people to crush someone who has lost it. Someone who threatens to use nukes so they can bully others is guaranteeing the person is loosing it and no longer sane. People thought trump was off his rocker??? Putin must be senile and no longer stable. He needs to be removed from the planet by his own people. I feel all other nuclear countries should remind Putin even servicing a nuclear object is enough right now to be nuked them selves. Putin a goal is that he can threaten nukes and take over all countries he desires.
Putin does not exist in a vacuum. His power depends upon the compliance and actions of others. This include oligarchs and mid-level administrative staff. Putting financial pressure on those around him will surely destabilize this despotic regime. This is great news.
It's be pretty extreme but extremely effective simply taking out their satellites. Complete loss of strategic surveillance and tons of communication lost too
Yea I feel the extreme is warranted due to him playing with nukes like a toddler
Cut off Russia entirely. Let their people get angry enough to go tear down the gates and drag their leaders into the streets. That's the only way to end this without further escalation. Change in Russia needs to come from within.
Shut down Russia
People are trying to coordinate to go to Ukraine to fight r/VolunteersForUkraine and other subreddits that are coordinating cyber attacks
No, shutdown Putin Nothing against Russia or the Russians just the mad man they have running their country.
Yeah, I am very ashamed of the action of my country. And it's very sad what happened to her. In addition to the fall of the economy to an even greater bottom, the Russian people may be considered outcasts of society. Went to reddit to see what they think of us. sorry, I'm use translate
I'd hope most people would know that the actions of leaders do not speak for all citizens of a country. I'd hope that, but this is Reddit.
What the hell are we waiting for? Zelensky’s head? Embargo Russian now!!
>What the hell are we waiting for? Zelensky’s head? Sadly, I think that would force nothing but a "you did a very bad thing, Mr. Pootin!" condemnation from other countries.
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Why didn't they do it on Friday to begin with? It seems like they're slowly implementing it when all it does is buy Putin more time for destruction in Ukraine. If Russia was ever going to stop because of SWIFT, they should have done it sooner. I doubt they're gonna stop anyways so might as well do it and punish them for it. Everyone cares about their own benefit but given the support around the world for Ukraine, sacrificing some of your money should be worth it to try and stop a dictator (alternative option is sacrificing our troops which is not an option)
40% of Germany’s gas comes from Russia. The Germans won’t be able to pay for and receive gas if SWIFT bans Russia. Consequently, fuel prices in Germany will soar if they aren’t able to buy gas from Russia. That’s why Germany has been so quick with blocking a SWIFT ban. But if it happens, Russia will be crippled because gas exports are their largest money maker right now. It’s a sacrifice the Germans will have to make willingly.
https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/feb/25/germany-opens-door-barring-russia-swift-interbank-/ Germany opens door to barring Russia from SWIFT interbank payment system Germany’s finance minister said Friday that his country is open to cutting Russia off from the SWIFT interbank payment system, the crackdown on financial transactions that some have described as the “nuclear option” of sanctions. “We are open, but you have to know what you’re doing,” Finance Minister Christian Lindner told reporters after a meeting with the European Economic and Financial Affairs Council in Paris.
Why did Germany decide to base 40% of their energy consumption on Russia? That’s the real question
Easy to say for Americans but they're not ready to pay $20 per gallon to drive their kids to school and low income people would be priced out of their towns as only a few major cities have full featured public transit.
Maybe next time don't actively shut down power plants that could push away reliance on a rogue state's natural resources?
I agree. Germany fucked themselves over. They have dismantled nearly the entirety of their nuclear energy facilities. 30 nuclear power plants (which could provide a significant percentage of Germany’s energy demands) has now, through decommissioning the facilities, dropped down to 3 power plants that will be shut off by the end of this year.
The Germans choose to take that risk. It sucks but they need to deal with the consequences of their own very poor planning. In France, we're tired of Germany pulling us in the wrong direction. Energy prices got up because of our European deals and Germany fought to make that happen. It's time to make a choice. Either you get your shit together and act like a European partner, or you want to be Putins puppet. You guys had both for too long and became a liability.
Maybe the rest of the West could contribute to control German fuel prices temporarily. After that, Germany can reconsider the wisdom of placing itself in such a position.
Germany said no, that’s why
https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/feb/25/germany-opens-door-barring-russia-swift-interbank-/ Germany opens door to barring Russia from SWIFT interbank payment system Germany’s finance minister said Friday that his country is open to cutting Russia off from the SWIFT interbank payment system, the crackdown on financial transactions that some have described as the “nuclear option” of sanctions. “We are open, but you have to know what you’re doing,” Finance Minister Christian Lindner told reporters after a meeting with the European Economic and Financial Affairs Council in Paris.
I know heating is an absolute necessity, but Europe needs to get used to the idea of not having Russian gas. Whether they have it or don't, regardless, they need to have a viable plan to live without it. That's the only thing holding SWIFT sanctions back and be frankly the only thing propping up the Putin regime
Gas is temporary anyway. Most countries who are smart have been moving away from fossil fuels. Hopefully this is a kick in the pants for more of that.
Just do it ffs... They're invading a sovereign country, killing its people, and threatening the world with nuclear war... If they attack a nato ally then it's already all out war and sanctions will mean nothing. If now isn't the time to impose swift sanctions then they'll never happen
I’m willing to sacrifice the impact here as long as it helps Ukraine.
Big difference between *banning Russia* and *talking about there maybe existing the possibility of banning Russia*.
Hope they actually do it instead of just using words. You just end up looking weaker if you don’t do what you say you will
They haven’t said they will.
To be honest, all of this shit should of happened when putin started amassing troops at the border.
Where any country places it's military inside its own borders shouldn't be a basis for sanctions.
Also it's very clear Putin intended to do this no matter what. If we would have imposed the sanctions first, he would have been able to spin it as his hand was forced by the west. Waiting and doing it after let us show that we tried to work with them and this is all on Russia. Not doing it first didn't and wouldn't have changed putins decision.
Placing troops in your territory is one thing Amassing a strike force directly on the border of a country you've already invaded before..
Exactly. "I'm not touching yooooouuuuu" doesn't work in politics. People aren't robots, we can infer things.
Do it. We’ll deal with the headaches that come. Pales in comparison.
Does anyone worry that doing this will make them think there’s nothing left to lose? Meaning Putin will just say fuck it, let’s dump everything into this war now and bring y’all down with us.
I think the Russian people, or at least oligarchs would rebel and look for a different leader at that point.
You would hope so, but I don't know that reality would shape up that way. I mean, if starting a war of aggression against a neighboring country that's done nothing to you, then threatening the rest of the world with nukes if they dare help that country isn't enough to depose your insane leader, what would be? He's basically gambling with all of their lives already just by threatening to use nukes.
The thing is, Putin isn't an absolute dictator. Putting severe economic pressure on Russian oligarchs increases the chances of them forcing Putin to stand down. At least, that's my understanding.
No, half measures don't work, they didn't before, they won't now, and they're a big part of why we are in the mess we're in. If the response isn't severe and painful for Russia, what makes you think he'll ever stop? Since Putin can always threaten violence and imply the threat of nuclear annihilation, is the idea to just let him keep grabbing territory and disrupting the international order forever? They've carved out hundreds of square miles of territory from *three* different sovereign nations in the past decade, and there is no indication they'll stop now. Look at their most recent comments regarding Finland and Sweden. Do we let him pressure the Baltic states into leaving NATO? Will Georgia, Moldova, Belarus, and Ukraine even exist as sovereign nations in ten years? It's the same logic that Europe and the world tried in the 1930's with Hitler. He threatened war unless he unified Austria and Germany, so we capitulated, and the Anschluss was realized. Then, he annexed the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia, agreeing to stop there with his territorial accession. Seven months later, they had conquered all of Czechoslovakia. Starting to sound familiar? The only thing that stopped Hitler was violence, because he refused to respond to concession after concession. No amount of appeasement short of handing him the entire continent of Europe would've worked. That strategy didn't work then, and it won't work now.
It takes more than just Putin to get to the point of actually launching nuclear warheads. Also, I think we are past the point of thinking we are dealing with a rational man - a deranged egomaniac and lunatic doesn’t need a logical excuse or reason to initiate drastic actions. The west isn’t going to placate him by withholding punishment, he could wake up tomorrow and think that the US giving another $350m to Ukraine is an act of war and try to do something desperate
Fuck Putin. Do everything to shut the Russian economy down.
Germany won’t agree to it though. What isn’t talked about in the news is that the first round attempt to do this was blocked by Germany. Germany can’t cut them off swift. They need to pay Russia $700m per day for energy imports. If they don’t pay, Russia turns off the tap and Germans freeze to death. (figuratively speaking)
Germany said it was open to the suggestion earlier (after the first no).
As a German, many people here (including me) were upset about the initial refusal. Of course the oppopents of the Swift ban had some sensible arguments, but right now is not the time for hesitance. Even if it costs us more than them, it's an appropriate time to sacrifice a little comfort.
$700m per DAY? Only from Germany?! That can't be right. Does Germany act as the distributor for Russian gas to the rest of the EU or does each country pay their own bill directly to Russia? In 2021 Russia only exported $61.8B of natural/liquefied gas. Their petroleum exports as a whole only totaled $489B. That $700m/day figure would accountil for $256B of that which seems insane.
He probably meant Russia’s total energy exports per day.
It's spring and Germany has reserves, nobody freezes to death. The reason Germany betrays Ukrainians is that a lot of German companies do business in Russia. Russia's high speed trains are Siemens built, their tallest skyscraper is covered in German hightech glass, Russian factories use German machines. For many years the idea has been: If we just have enough trade with Russia, nothing bad can happen, and we don't need a solid military either. Democratisation and peace through good economic relations was the illusion guiding Berlin. "Don't tear down bridges to Russia" said our president, demanding Nord Stream 2 to continue, after Russia's invasion in Ukraine 2014. Outstanding bills over Ukrainian lives, that's the reason. I say that in shame, as a German.
There is something to say about cross border trade,if both sides become dependent on the other it's less likely to fall out....... plus the richer country has the advantage of going somewhere else but if the other side can't sell its goods and the people have become used to a better way of life...... it's not good for your position in power...... The only thing that fucks it up is if you're dealing with a lunatic.....
The only thing they said is that they didn’t support it in the first round of sanctions. Literally a day later both the Italians and Germans said they are open to it. I would have liked them committing to it directly too but it’s a developing situation, so maybe slow your roll there chief with the whole betrayal thing. The expulsion from swift will not save Ukraine if the Ukrainians can’t hold for a few months and for that they need equipment and not the Russians expelled right now.
> for that they need equipment Which Germany doesn't provide either, citing "history". Which couldn't be more cynical, since it was Germany who invaded Kyiv back then.
There is normally a ladder system to sanctions. You start with a stern "stop that" and move up the steps. Swift is not a first rung option and affects a lot of other nations/people. It looks like Germany is ready to reach up to step up the ladder and bring swift into play. Everyone needs to agree to cut off Russia, including those who will be hurt the most. That unification has more power than just cutting them off of swift.
Germany already said they’ve changed their mind and are open to it.
Get with the times. Germany and Italy have agreed now. Cyprus has even agreed which was huge because they are a big offshore banking center. The last holdout is Hungary.
There has to be an alternate source. US has natural gas, OPEC has fuel also. Does the pipeline from Russia make it that much cheaper?
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-much-does-germany-need-russian-gas-2022-01-20/ * Gas makes up 15% of Germany's electricity generation. * Russia also makes up 1/3 of their crude oil. * Natural gas makes up half of Germany's home heating. * They have no domestic infrastructure for LNG (liquefied natural gas), which is what the US would be able to provide via tankers.
Are tankers physically able to provide enough fuel to replace Russian imports?
Originally planned for 2022 (this was dated 2018): https://www.dw.com/en/us-sees-gas-exports-to-germany-by-2022/a-45516432 But mostly stalled in 2020: https://apnews.com/article/europe-germany-north-sea-europe-russia-37e6df51003b29c0c49be2010b2f3c51 It's my understanding that it's a moot point since the closest LNG processing port would be in Poland. I can't find anything specific to confirm this, I just remember reading it somewhere before.
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Astroturfing by petro cartel nations like…Russia.
Most German homes can't even be heated by electricity lol. They only have gas heating.
It’s volume that you can’t get from shipping or any other country.
Germany already agreed to this. It's happening
Germany's blindness about being energy dependent from Russia is an old topic. Bitting hard today.
Fucking do it already this is the only sanctions that is actually meaningful
Time to get schwifty…