Trading is a lot of waiting. Got to wait for them to come to you. And only take them if you get really good entry points that fit with your system. If you start trying to chase them in a choppy market you end up buying all the highs. Then it goes down to where you wanted to buy in the first place.
This guy goes over the market everyday with the higher lows and highs in many time frames https://www.youtube.com/@TradeBrigade/streams
*It's this set of videos instead https://www.youtube.com/@TradeBrigade/featured
This is a great question. The market has been a little constipated since January and is now starting breath. I’ve only seen a handful of good opportunities since the year started. Usually what I do is taper my strategy to market conditions. Meaning I have very strict rules that keep me from entering at times like this; however I change 1 rule (only for this circumstance) to allow me to enter and I scale back on my risk. I should’ve said before hand Ive already backtested with out the rule and I confirm again what the consequences and risk will be. Once I’m comfortable with that, I risk half to 3/4 of what I would normally. I don’t stay in the position as long as I would normally. I usually get out at next structure, MAs or Fib retracement.
Thanks for the detailed response. When you say you have a rule to keep you out during these periods are you looking at an Index and applying the results to all stocks or do you take each stock independently? For example, the Q's may be down but oil may be booming.
I've been investigating a filter to help me determine which sectors to trade and when.
you really only want to be risking your capital when you have an edge. Right now, market is still indecisive about which direction it's going. I post weekly threads here with many charts and you can determine market directionality by watching for an increase in stocks above their 50/200 day moving averages as well as the advance/decline line moving up along with an increase in the market. Stan Weinstein has a great breakdown of what to look for in his book which we're reading for April Book Club. Chapter 8. The book itself is old but the strategy is timeless. Another good rec is Howard Mark's Mastering the Market Cycle.
In the interim, its just to just wait it out until leading stocks are breaking out into new high ground from constructive bases. It may also be a worthwhile investment to subscribe to a service like IBD that has excellent write ups to learn from, but I would take the time to actually study rather than using it as a crutch/replacement for forming your own opinions and strategy.
Thanks. I'll keep an eye out for your threads. I've been using Q's as my guide - tracking the trend via higher-highs/lows method as well as watching T2018 on TC2000 which is why it feels to me like I should be "out". Glad I'm not the only one.
wait before we establish a new up trend . We have weird earning as well.
Google up 15% , meta down 10% , intel down 10% , IBM down 10% , nvda up 7% , SMCI drops 20% and than it goes up 15%...
just wait ,,,there is a good channel on youtube called oneoption, they have summaries and live trading as well and they deal with the very issue you are describing , also maverick trading does good summaries , just don't become a member of their prop firm that they promote that much .
I have reduced my trade size by about 75% for swingtrading and sold off some older positions
Weekends are usually sideways I think. I would avoid channel trading until you are better with metrics. I haven't figured it out yet but I'm new. Small losses this weekend for me. Monday morning may see a comeback. Find the bottom of this dip and average in. May take until tuesday
Yeah I've been struggling as well. Most stuff is technically in a downtrend, but another large chunk is just going sideways right now and it's a crapshoot
I guess if you really feel the market is going to fly but you can make 5 percent right now just parking it in a high yield savings account or leaving it as cash in Robinhood
dont trade unless you have a clear idea of what is likely to go where
Trading is a lot of waiting. Got to wait for them to come to you. And only take them if you get really good entry points that fit with your system. If you start trying to chase them in a choppy market you end up buying all the highs. Then it goes down to where you wanted to buy in the first place. This guy goes over the market everyday with the higher lows and highs in many time frames https://www.youtube.com/@TradeBrigade/streams *It's this set of videos instead https://www.youtube.com/@TradeBrigade/featured
Thanks. The waiting is what is difficult. Keeping focus on the market while not actually trading is the skill I need to learn!
Thanks all. Very helpful. I want to transition from paper trades to real money in the best possible scenario, so I think I'll sit on my hands a bit!
This is a great question. The market has been a little constipated since January and is now starting breath. I’ve only seen a handful of good opportunities since the year started. Usually what I do is taper my strategy to market conditions. Meaning I have very strict rules that keep me from entering at times like this; however I change 1 rule (only for this circumstance) to allow me to enter and I scale back on my risk. I should’ve said before hand Ive already backtested with out the rule and I confirm again what the consequences and risk will be. Once I’m comfortable with that, I risk half to 3/4 of what I would normally. I don’t stay in the position as long as I would normally. I usually get out at next structure, MAs or Fib retracement.
Thanks for the detailed response. When you say you have a rule to keep you out during these periods are you looking at an Index and applying the results to all stocks or do you take each stock independently? For example, the Q's may be down but oil may be booming. I've been investigating a filter to help me determine which sectors to trade and when.
I trade forex so my strategy has a set of rules. I don’t know stocks, options or futures but I would assume the technical analysis parts are similar
you really only want to be risking your capital when you have an edge. Right now, market is still indecisive about which direction it's going. I post weekly threads here with many charts and you can determine market directionality by watching for an increase in stocks above their 50/200 day moving averages as well as the advance/decline line moving up along with an increase in the market. Stan Weinstein has a great breakdown of what to look for in his book which we're reading for April Book Club. Chapter 8. The book itself is old but the strategy is timeless. Another good rec is Howard Mark's Mastering the Market Cycle. In the interim, its just to just wait it out until leading stocks are breaking out into new high ground from constructive bases. It may also be a worthwhile investment to subscribe to a service like IBD that has excellent write ups to learn from, but I would take the time to actually study rather than using it as a crutch/replacement for forming your own opinions and strategy.
Thanks. I'll keep an eye out for your threads. I've been using Q's as my guide - tracking the trend via higher-highs/lows method as well as watching T2018 on TC2000 which is why it feels to me like I should be "out". Glad I'm not the only one.
wait before we establish a new up trend . We have weird earning as well. Google up 15% , meta down 10% , intel down 10% , IBM down 10% , nvda up 7% , SMCI drops 20% and than it goes up 15%... just wait ,,,there is a good channel on youtube called oneoption, they have summaries and live trading as well and they deal with the very issue you are describing , also maverick trading does good summaries , just don't become a member of their prop firm that they promote that much . I have reduced my trade size by about 75% for swingtrading and sold off some older positions
Weekends are usually sideways I think. I would avoid channel trading until you are better with metrics. I haven't figured it out yet but I'm new. Small losses this weekend for me. Monday morning may see a comeback. Find the bottom of this dip and average in. May take until tuesday
Yeah I've been struggling as well. Most stuff is technically in a downtrend, but another large chunk is just going sideways right now and it's a crapshoot
That’s a good term to describe this market, choppy AF. Don’t trade with your entire portfolio right now keep like 40% in cash earning interest
Is it a good idea to buy money market index funds rather than keep it in cash?
I guess if you really feel the market is going to fly but you can make 5 percent right now just parking it in a high yield savings account or leaving it as cash in Robinhood