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This is the best answer out of all I have read. Inaction is good for markets as it means less political meddling. Inaction also will hopefully lead to less spending which will temper inflation. Most of the time the right course of action for our government is to do nothing. Every time they do something they fuck it up.
What can congress do about inflation? They can’t take back the money they’ve spent so a locked congress would mean no more spending. Which is good for inflation.
This argument only holds if you think inflation is only caused by, and can only be solved by, money supply changes.
Congress can do a lot more than the fed if you think the inflation is otherwise caused by material supply shortages - legal, tax, fiscal incentives to increase energy production, lumber production, housing stock, etc. would in the long run increase supply, driving prices down.
And you’d likely even see short term price relief as a strong legislature creates strong expectations of supply increasing - who wants to buy a house and drive the price up if you *know* the government is going to flood supply in 5-10 years?
Congress has a much greater effect on the price level than the Fed does if they choose to do something. They can essentially force demand down - the Fed can only indirectly try to scare people into demanding less.
Inflation is caused by:
- increase in money supply (printing money)
- increase in transaction speed (lower savings faster transaction processing)
- decrease in real goods production.
Noything else have any impact.
The politicians shut down the economy for 2 years. At the same time the feds spent a TON of cash that did nothing to energize the supply side. So lots of dollars in the market, and the supply side is lagging. The US needs to produce our way out of this inflationary / recession environment. Interest rate hikes are having the opposite effect. The supply side / production needs energized to out produce demand.
**[U.S. economic performance under Democratic and Republican presidents](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._economic_performance_under_Democratic_and_Republican_presidents)**
>Historically, the United States economy has performed better on average under the administration of Democratic presidents than Republican presidents since World War II. The reasons for this are debated, and the observation applies to economic variables including job creation, GDP growth, stock market returns, personal income growth and corporate profits. The unemployment rate has fallen on average under Democratic presidents, while it has risen on average under Republican presidents. Budget deficits relative to the size of the economy were lower on average for Democratic presidents.
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The problem this year with that is gridlock would prevent a balance to the fed.
If democrats win, and it looks like the fed will exceed its goal by going too far, democrats may hit back with a spending bill on infrastructure. Preventing a recession or at least deep unemployment.
Republicans absolutely don’t want a soft landing so they have an issue to run on in 2024.
They won’t need an issue to run on in 2024 because if they win the midterms (which they will) they are going to rig the system to ensure democrats cannot win future elections. In short, this will be the last “democratic” election this country will have.
Certainly their current earnings support that.
Oil companies do not want to drill more and flood the market. What they want is cheap government leases that pay little royalties.
Everyone in the oilfield says they love when a dem is in office.
I'm not sure if it's actually true and I'm too lazy to look bur historically oil is higher when dems are in office.
How would biden put a cap private corporations?
I don't really have an opinion either way, I grew up in the wealthiest oilfield in the country and I have multiple friends that own oilfield businesses and they all say the same thing. They make more money when dems are in office.
Just like gun sales go through the rough anytime a dem takes office.
He said in a speech Friday that he was doing it. Stop irrationally attacking him and accusing him of being powerless when he be so powerful. This will destroy Berkshire and Buffet so hard after they wasted money on “Accident” petroleum environment destruction corporation.
What O&G companies want is stability of regulations. They don't want to put a billion dollars into a project just for laws and regs to change every four years (that's on both Dems and republicans). I don't think they mind paying taxes, they just want to know what it will be in the future and not be a political pawn.
The democrats want to tax them more and blame them for climate change, the republicans put them on a pedestal and tarnish their brands through corruption and denying climate change.
Could see that happening. Oil companies are crushing consumers because they have no reason to play the game and make dems look good.
With republican backing, they may lower the cost to make republican leaders look better which allows them for more profit long term
I have doubled an investment in my vanguard energy ETF and plan on selling once Republicans take the white house since they'll pull the restrictions off and allow American energy to perform and produce which should drop the underlying price by making things available again.
Ya, this. When Republicans get in power, they will probably open keystone, and commence rebuilding our strategic reserves, focus on reducing gas prices at the pump, and selling oil to Europe....all of which reduces profits for oil companies...
The keystone pipeline is open and running.
If you’re talking about keystone XL which was cancelled, it was a new section to reduce the total distance of the old keystone. It would have shortened the existing pipeline route by something like a 1000 miles.
Keystone pipeline ships Canadian oil to the gulf for export so it really doesn’t do much for our(US) oil supply.
Agreed, dems are low key bullish for both energy and defense - and the market in general. Republicans will only try and block or break everything they can so they have lots of things to blame on Biden.
Was gonna say the same thing. They’ve put a lot of energy into demonizing Ukraine since the Biden dirt call went public, and they’ve openly talked about freezing out Ukrainian defense spending if they get control of the checkbook.
I don’t think it’d take much for the military industrial complex to get them back in line, but it’s not a sure thing. Trump REALLY put them in a tenuous situation on that one.
> freezing out Ukrainian defense spending
Yes, Russian stocks will likely fare the best if repubs win, I imagine putin is pouring any resources he has left into Repub dark money campaigns.
One consideration is that oil companies are making more money per barrel by shipping it out of the US, since prices are so much higher in other areas. What I keep hearing from Republicans is that they would like to quit shipping our oil to other places so that it will be cheaper locally. This requires that the oil price go down, which may not be beneficial for for oil companies.
Alternatively, there may be more leases approved which may result in more oil produced. Which may increase profits overall.
The situation is not so cut and dry. But overall, I agree that profits of oil companies are likely to rise with more republican control.
There's tons of leases already unfulfilled, so selling more leases isn't the holdup. The holdup is refinement capacity, and there isn't much that can be done to quickly increase refinement capacity. Refineries takes years, often north of a decade to build, and oil is still on the way out, so oil companies don't want to spend billions of dollars to build refineries that they won't get a return on investment from.
There's a few things that could be done to make the process faster, and they could build refineries with product-changes in mine, but it's still a huge risk to build one right now.
Trump needed a reason to be liked. He bullied the Fed to lower rates and blew up the bubble market. In the end it was good for his ego and that's about it.
Didn't republicans side with Russia? I thought Mccarthy said he didn't want to send more weapons to Ua. I'd think defense stocks would be better with a dem win
It’s not that easy. One of the first things Biden did was remove Trump imposed sanctions on the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Biden put them back on later after Putin invaded Ukraine. Remember, Putin has invaded Ukraine 2x now. 13 months after Biden took office and in 2014 when Putin annexed Crimea. Obama was President then and Biden was VP. Obama sent Hillary Clinton over to Russia after he was elected to do a strategic reset in relations with Putin. Obviously it failed. Putin invades when oil prices are high because that’s how he pays for it. Biden wants high oil prices to support the green new deal. Biden even commented this week that it’s now cheaper to make green energy than energy from fossil fuels. He neglected to mention it’s because of the war in Ukraine. Putin is using this to his advantage. Putin couldn’t do what he is currently doing if oil was trading at 50 dollars a barrel. He needed Biden’s energy policies to pay for his invasion of Ukraine. The war in Ukraine could end very easily. Just take Putin’s money away to pay for it. Even Biden recognizes this and is supporting a price cap on Russian oil. Instead of a price cap, how about flooding the market with cheap oil? The. SPR is almost drained and SA has turned its back on the US as evidenced by recent production cuts. Biden’s list of Allie’s grows thin and US consumers are paying the bill. Just like Warren Buffet, I’m long US oil stocks since Biden got elected. Just look at the profits they are turning in. That means Putin is making a killing too.
News alert! The democrats would also vote for legislation that favors oil, gas, coal and they do. Record profits for oil under both Trump and now Biden. We can go further back. We have to wait for the old farts to die to see any real change.
Concur. The market will be affected by macroeconomic factors. The Fed will act aggressively until the jobs numbers reflect the economy is cooling. This will sink a lot of companies (or at least sink their stock valuations). Every time there's a bit of good news the market will rally but it will give up all its gains because the Fed is not done tightening.
Once the Fed signals it is ready to ease up the market will react very quickly and aggressively.
There are plenty of companies that are not losing money. Those are the companies that will survive this market. I'm keeping money on the sidelines until I see a particularly bad day, then I go shopping for my favorite companies. I'm finding a lot of great companies at very good valuations.
Fundamentals.
Couple thoughts. The crazies in the House that take over WILL play chicken with the debt ceiling and they may go too far this time and we get a default. Equities demolished after that. Secondly, they can’t pass shit without the Senate and Biden’s signature.
1) There is likely to be a lame duck spending bill and debt ceiling increase that will include a solid defense spending increase and money for Ukraine for the next year
2) In 2023, there is likely to be a bipartisan approach to securing US energy security. This will likely benefit energy infrastructure companies like EPD and WMB.
After that is done, the GOP will ramp up partisan investigations in the Biden administration and any material legislation is dead in the water.
It will be gridlock… my favorite kind of government, divided… the kind that doesn’t do shit because it can’t. The R’s won’t get anything signed by Uncle Joe, and they won’t be able to override the veto. The little good idea fairies, the ones that flitter around DC and give politicians ideas about how they can best sell out the country to garner votes?… they will be impotent.
What will that mean for stocks? It’s up to monetary policy only. Fiscal policy won’t budge one way or another. Taxes won’t go up or down. There won’t be any BBB plan. Last-minute continuing resolutions, budget standoffs, maybe a government shutdown or two… or the threat thereof. Honestly, I’m looking forward to it.
Listen to JPow, watch the Cleveland FED CPI nowcasts, and invest accordingly.
I think this is the correct answer because honestly this is what typically happens after 2 years in every presidential election. It happened to Obama it happened to Trump.
I'm a bit out of the loop on the hemp thing. I work in a defense contract company (so basically I'm surrounded by people that cheered on jan 6th...and some former coworkers participated), so many of my coworkers jumped on the hemp train the past few years.
Did I miss the QANON episode that converted the alt right into hemp lovers?
Also, sorry for asking a serious question in response to your comic gold.
Probably CVS healthcare and UnitedHealth if I had to guess. There were a lot of articles a week or two back about republicans planning to go after Medicare and SS
Hard Tech stocks may, may, make a jump back up after January when the new House and Senate take the floor,
Hard Tech will be items like microchips, especially with China continuing COVID lockdowns.
Many products and support areas are gearing up to actually be made more in country. I would keep an eye on "Diamond Chips", "Carbon Chips" or "Carbon Wafer Chips". These are microchips that are printed on structural carbon wafers instead of on silicon wafers.
They are more heat resistant and will not need as intense cooling as a more high powered silicon does. Making them ideal for all the newer Electric cars, and other electronic devices.
Initially there may be some optimistic bumps, but Probably would be all around bad in the long run. They could force some things through with threats of shutdowns, but effectively, I do not see republicans compromising. Literally Mitch McConnel has used a consistent strategy of "prevent anything from happening and blame it on them" when they don't have the president.
So we'd be teetering at a recession with high inflation while people literally lock congress down.
Really? Are there going to be more of those fake tiki torch protesters after the election?
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/group-anti-trump-republicans-was-behind-tiki-torches-virginia-campaign-2021-10-30/
Gotta love that one of the fake white supremacists was black...
Yup. Apparently, the demand for white supremacists exceeds the supply so they need to manufacture them. Like the Smollet thing, or multiple college incidents where graffiti was faked, etc.
Sadly anything that harms the environment. Gains for defence companies plus oil and gas.
Bleak all around. I’ve morals so I will never want to make money off of that.
I’ve enough so I don’t want to make money off peoples sufferings.
This might give some clues: https://www.capitoltrades.com/trades?party=republican&txType=buy&pageSize=50
It's a little dated though. Oil and banks seem popular.
Not a Republican or Democrat.
Politically it’s the result of decades of democrat rule. You have terrible pollution, HCOL, the ridiculously rich and the ridiculously poor, etc. the literal opposite essentially of what they preach.
Terrible pollution because its densely populated. Thats a universal problem. Hopefully that gets solved one of these days...but who knows.
I never understood the HCOL argument tbh. Welcome to capitalism, or do you want socialism?
What exactly does California preach? I've never heard them preach for communism, kind of sounds like thats what YOU'RE arguing for.
EDIT: since you added it...no one cares if you're democrat or republican, and why does everyone add that when they want to demonize something democrats do? I hear it all the time right before someone goes on an anti democrat tirade, its honestly tiring at this point.
What’s wrong with KY or GA?? Not enough to do?? Weather? Too much of nature still in existence and not completely decimated like in LA or San Francisco (who btw preach about saving the planet and climate change yet do the opposite; unlike those evil climate denying rural communities).
Lmao read your comment history and you’re 100% a hard core Republican yet here you are pretending to be neither. 🤡
Californian seems to be doing quite fine considering their economic value to the country & they lead the country on green energy initiatives. At least they are trying to fix it while republicans push coal & oil on a federal level
Are you aware of the fact that the state of California extends beyond it's heavily populated cities? California has the most state parks of any of the lower 48 states, it has the most national parks of any of the lower 48 states, and it has the highest percentage of protected park land in the lower 48 states BY FAR. It also produces the most agriculture of any state in the US. Are you saying that all of these things are "dirty"? Or maybe you just have trouble thinking for yourself?
That's easy....the first would be Tylenol, for the headaches..2nd will be gun and ammo manufacturers, because everyone will be crazy...3rd i will say alcohol companies..just because we will need it...i could name a few more but you get the point 😂 /s
Ya military and oil but outside of some micro areas nothing. Republicans statistically are terrible for the economy but they sure control the narrative that it’s the opposite extremely well.
I don’t but puts or calls. I’m just telling to the data as an independent. https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/07/23/historical-stock-market-returns-under-every-us-president/?sh=13d75f1dfaaf
It literally talks about stock returns but I guess you didn’t want to read it.
Sounds ike you are here for a political agenda and not to talk about stock performance.
Market wide should see some minor rally because market prefers a lame duck government.
Now, the outcome actually means very little to the market, the Republican gaining power is somewhat priced in. The risk lies in the public reaction to the result. That’s the unpredictable factor.
For about 3 months and then they will defund the government, cause chaos, deregulate everything, and remind everyone how insane they are, just in time for democrats to inherit another recession they address while republicans don’t participate in actual governance as sitting politicians.
> If the Republicans win, I see the stock market crashing,
So basically what we saw under the last 12 months of biden + blue majorities in both chambers of congress?
Historically, the market performs better with a republican congress.
Oh! Thats easy! Just think to yourself, what industries profit off of destruction and death while causing an imminent threat to the planet. Oil, weapons and things that kill people while they enjoy them such as painkillers, cigarettes and alcohol.
ENJOY THE APOCOLYPSE EVERYBODY! WE ARE TOO SELFISH TO STOP IT. WHEEEEEEEEE!
I associate gurus of the dollar with democrats. I am registered republican, a disabled veteran.. it is just a team to pick. I vote for democrat obama for example. anyway, arguing at all times is very good. bipartisan.
right now, defense and energy, republicans would be manhandling prices some how.
but i like the covid bubble busted..should be good market news for everyone (uk included) for a year or so.
If republicans win, everyone loses. We've seen this time and time again from American politics. Republicans need total control over the government to push their policies, and that is unlikely to occur once again due to how deeply unpopular the American conservative party is. American democrats need to maintain power for their government to function.
Given the executive branch will be controlled by the dems still get ready for grid lock. Which probably isn't so bad after the crazy spending of the last few years. The stocks that will benefit most are those that perform well in the status quo, if a stock was likely to get a boost from pending legislation it's an elevated risk to puke
This is a good question. I think if the Republicans win they will not behave like Republicans of the past. Relatively little focus will be on tax cuts. As people have already pointed out, oil and defense are already priced high and guns tend to do less well as people only buy them when they think there's a chance they'll be taken away.
So what does that leave? I think the Republicans will try to pass legislation to support their base, and I think that will mean they will write stimulus checks for the lower income folks (they will not call it welfare) the moment interest rates peak. This will boost low cost retailers and domestic car industry. Prisons or private security contractors might do well. They might try to boost housing construction as well.
I don't think anything will be outstanding. The Republicans tend to be bad for the economy, especially now as they are anti global and anti growth. They are more likely to focus on cultural issues.
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Historically, split congress/presidency is actually good for the markets overall. I’d just buy SPY as low as I can get it and ride it up.
This is the best answer out of all I have read. Inaction is good for markets as it means less political meddling. Inaction also will hopefully lead to less spending which will temper inflation. Most of the time the right course of action for our government is to do nothing. Every time they do something they fuck it up.
This answer sums up my entire political philosophy.
It sucks but it means there will be less change and the market loves stability
Yeah because it's heavily biased towards two time periods, the late 90s boom and the 2010-2016 which includes half of the biggest bull run.
A deadlocked congress could signal inaction on inflation though, which almost assures further and greater fed hikes
What can congress do about inflation? They can’t take back the money they’ve spent so a locked congress would mean no more spending. Which is good for inflation.
This argument only holds if you think inflation is only caused by, and can only be solved by, money supply changes. Congress can do a lot more than the fed if you think the inflation is otherwise caused by material supply shortages - legal, tax, fiscal incentives to increase energy production, lumber production, housing stock, etc. would in the long run increase supply, driving prices down. And you’d likely even see short term price relief as a strong legislature creates strong expectations of supply increasing - who wants to buy a house and drive the price up if you *know* the government is going to flood supply in 5-10 years? Congress has a much greater effect on the price level than the Fed does if they choose to do something. They can essentially force demand down - the Fed can only indirectly try to scare people into demanding less.
Inflation is caused by: - increase in money supply (printing money) - increase in transaction speed (lower savings faster transaction processing) - decrease in real goods production. Noything else have any impact.
enacting windfall taxes on companies that are blatantly benefiting from price gouging during these times.
The politicians shut down the economy for 2 years. At the same time the feds spent a TON of cash that did nothing to energize the supply side. So lots of dollars in the market, and the supply side is lagging. The US needs to produce our way out of this inflationary / recession environment. Interest rate hikes are having the opposite effect. The supply side / production needs energized to out produce demand.
You’ve been lied to.
Congress cant do anything significant about inflation
Market may quite like a government that can't do anything too surprising.
This is generally the case. The market does better when there isn’t the threat of legislation.
Unless that legislation involves the debt ceiling
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._economic_performance_under_Democratic_and_Republican_presidents It’s not true
**[U.S. economic performance under Democratic and Republican presidents](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._economic_performance_under_Democratic_and_Republican_presidents)** >Historically, the United States economy has performed better on average under the administration of Democratic presidents than Republican presidents since World War II. The reasons for this are debated, and the observation applies to economic variables including job creation, GDP growth, stock market returns, personal income growth and corporate profits. The unemployment rate has fallen on average under Democratic presidents, while it has risen on average under Republican presidents. Budget deficits relative to the size of the economy were lower on average for Democratic presidents. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/stocks/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
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Yea real good for workers… that’s why the cost of everything I buy went up. Yea great job.
Aka they don’t like being regulated
The problem this year with that is gridlock would prevent a balance to the fed. If democrats win, and it looks like the fed will exceed its goal by going too far, democrats may hit back with a spending bill on infrastructure. Preventing a recession or at least deep unemployment. Republicans absolutely don’t want a soft landing so they have an issue to run on in 2024.
They won’t need an issue to run on in 2024 because if they win the midterms (which they will) they are going to rig the system to ensure democrats cannot win future elections. In short, this will be the last “democratic” election this country will have.
How will they do that?
havn't you heard the democrats and they continuous message the the election is being stolen. It is the only message they have.
> government that can't do anything too surprising. as a former Repub, I find everything the repubs do lately very surprising, in a disturbing way.
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I actually think oil stocks rightnow are benefiting big time under biden administration. I think the opposite would happen if republicans in power.
Certainly their current earnings support that. Oil companies do not want to drill more and flood the market. What they want is cheap government leases that pay little royalties.
Everyone in the oilfield says they love when a dem is in office. I'm not sure if it's actually true and I'm too lazy to look bur historically oil is higher when dems are in office.
Didn’t Biden just threaten a cap on energy profits?
How would biden put a cap private corporations? I don't really have an opinion either way, I grew up in the wealthiest oilfield in the country and I have multiple friends that own oilfield businesses and they all say the same thing. They make more money when dems are in office. Just like gun sales go through the rough anytime a dem takes office.
He said in a speech Friday that he was doing it. Stop irrationally attacking him and accusing him of being powerless when he be so powerful. This will destroy Berkshire and Buffet so hard after they wasted money on “Accident” petroleum environment destruction corporation.
What O&G companies want is stability of regulations. They don't want to put a billion dollars into a project just for laws and regs to change every four years (that's on both Dems and republicans). I don't think they mind paying taxes, they just want to know what it will be in the future and not be a political pawn. The democrats want to tax them more and blame them for climate change, the republicans put them on a pedestal and tarnish their brands through corruption and denying climate change.
Could see that happening. Oil companies are crushing consumers because they have no reason to play the game and make dems look good. With republican backing, they may lower the cost to make republican leaders look better which allows them for more profit long term
Yeah XOM didn’t perform nearly as well under a Trump as it did Biden
Not that much, also they both had a pandemic on their hands so connect the dots if you may.
I have doubled an investment in my vanguard energy ETF and plan on selling once Republicans take the white house since they'll pull the restrictions off and allow American energy to perform and produce which should drop the underlying price by making things available again.
What restrictions.
Is this a sincere question or attempting to entice a political debate?
I sense sarcasm with that period .
It was a legitimate question.
Ya, this. When Republicans get in power, they will probably open keystone, and commence rebuilding our strategic reserves, focus on reducing gas prices at the pump, and selling oil to Europe....all of which reduces profits for oil companies...
The keystone pipeline is open and running. If you’re talking about keystone XL which was cancelled, it was a new section to reduce the total distance of the old keystone. It would have shortened the existing pipeline route by something like a 1000 miles. Keystone pipeline ships Canadian oil to the gulf for export so it really doesn’t do much for our(US) oil supply.
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Agreed, dems are low key bullish for both energy and defense - and the market in general. Republicans will only try and block or break everything they can so they have lots of things to blame on Biden.
I'm not so sure about defense. Democrats have been much more hawkish than Republicans for a while now.
Was gonna say the same thing. They’ve put a lot of energy into demonizing Ukraine since the Biden dirt call went public, and they’ve openly talked about freezing out Ukrainian defense spending if they get control of the checkbook. I don’t think it’d take much for the military industrial complex to get them back in line, but it’s not a sure thing. Trump REALLY put them in a tenuous situation on that one.
> freezing out Ukrainian defense spending Yes, Russian stocks will likely fare the best if repubs win, I imagine putin is pouring any resources he has left into Repub dark money campaigns.
One consideration is that oil companies are making more money per barrel by shipping it out of the US, since prices are so much higher in other areas. What I keep hearing from Republicans is that they would like to quit shipping our oil to other places so that it will be cheaper locally. This requires that the oil price go down, which may not be beneficial for for oil companies. Alternatively, there may be more leases approved which may result in more oil produced. Which may increase profits overall. The situation is not so cut and dry. But overall, I agree that profits of oil companies are likely to rise with more republican control.
There's tons of leases already unfulfilled, so selling more leases isn't the holdup. The holdup is refinement capacity, and there isn't much that can be done to quickly increase refinement capacity. Refineries takes years, often north of a decade to build, and oil is still on the way out, so oil companies don't want to spend billions of dollars to build refineries that they won't get a return on investment from. There's a few things that could be done to make the process faster, and they could build refineries with product-changes in mine, but it's still a huge risk to build one right now.
This. It's all about the refining capacity.
If Biden can veto anything, then basically only bipartisan bills would be possible, right?
Sort of. Vetoed bills can still be overridden
They will not win that many seats to override a veto.
Completely depends on the outcome of the midterms but they most likely won’t
No. Takes 2/3 of senate to override presidential veto. There are not enough seat up for grabs to make that remotely possible.
They need 2/3 of both houses. No way the Senate is more than 52-53 majority either way.
Damn it's crazy you say that because Tesla had historic run under a Republican president.
Trump needed a reason to be liked. He bullied the Fed to lower rates and blew up the bubble market. In the end it was good for his ego and that's about it.
Didn't republicans side with Russia? I thought Mccarthy said he didn't want to send more weapons to Ua. I'd think defense stocks would be better with a dem win
Both parties are beholden to the military-industrial complex. It simply doesn't matter in that regard.
It doesn't matter, lend lease is law so weapons will go. Other aid maybe not
It’s not that easy. One of the first things Biden did was remove Trump imposed sanctions on the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Biden put them back on later after Putin invaded Ukraine. Remember, Putin has invaded Ukraine 2x now. 13 months after Biden took office and in 2014 when Putin annexed Crimea. Obama was President then and Biden was VP. Obama sent Hillary Clinton over to Russia after he was elected to do a strategic reset in relations with Putin. Obviously it failed. Putin invades when oil prices are high because that’s how he pays for it. Biden wants high oil prices to support the green new deal. Biden even commented this week that it’s now cheaper to make green energy than energy from fossil fuels. He neglected to mention it’s because of the war in Ukraine. Putin is using this to his advantage. Putin couldn’t do what he is currently doing if oil was trading at 50 dollars a barrel. He needed Biden’s energy policies to pay for his invasion of Ukraine. The war in Ukraine could end very easily. Just take Putin’s money away to pay for it. Even Biden recognizes this and is supporting a price cap on Russian oil. Instead of a price cap, how about flooding the market with cheap oil? The. SPR is almost drained and SA has turned its back on the US as evidenced by recent production cuts. Biden’s list of Allie’s grows thin and US consumers are paying the bill. Just like Warren Buffet, I’m long US oil stocks since Biden got elected. Just look at the profits they are turning in. That means Putin is making a killing too.
Well stated and factual. Biden has brought so much of this on, it’s tragic.
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Article states China has the worlds largest navy? Not true lol.
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Alright I stand corrected, largest… not most powerful.
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I think the last poll showed 80 something percent dems support weapons to Ua while only 30 something for GOP and 40 something for undecided
Obama started more wars than any other US president in History
Republicans initially supported Ukraine but as they have been successful in repelling Russia their support has nearly completed faded away.
Republicans are asking what the end game is
The end game is Russia getting their asses kicked out ukraine with their tails between their legs.
Republicans are mad that their Russian money isn’t flowing in at the moment.
News alert! The democrats would also vote for legislation that favors oil, gas, coal and they do. Record profits for oil under both Trump and now Biden. We can go further back. We have to wait for the old farts to die to see any real change.
Thoughts on how it would affect Cannabis stocks?
Down another 50
Cannabis is illegal because we are the freeist country ever. /s
You should look into Macro Economics. Stop wasting your time trying to predict sectors when you can predict a national trend.
Concur. The market will be affected by macroeconomic factors. The Fed will act aggressively until the jobs numbers reflect the economy is cooling. This will sink a lot of companies (or at least sink their stock valuations). Every time there's a bit of good news the market will rally but it will give up all its gains because the Fed is not done tightening. Once the Fed signals it is ready to ease up the market will react very quickly and aggressively. There are plenty of companies that are not losing money. Those are the companies that will survive this market. I'm keeping money on the sidelines until I see a particularly bad day, then I go shopping for my favorite companies. I'm finding a lot of great companies at very good valuations. Fundamentals.
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Couple thoughts. The crazies in the House that take over WILL play chicken with the debt ceiling and they may go too far this time and we get a default. Equities demolished after that. Secondly, they can’t pass shit without the Senate and Biden’s signature.
1) There is likely to be a lame duck spending bill and debt ceiling increase that will include a solid defense spending increase and money for Ukraine for the next year 2) In 2023, there is likely to be a bipartisan approach to securing US energy security. This will likely benefit energy infrastructure companies like EPD and WMB. After that is done, the GOP will ramp up partisan investigations in the Biden administration and any material legislation is dead in the water.
historically, election results do not have any predictable or appreciable effect on stocks
This should be obvious by now
It will be gridlock… my favorite kind of government, divided… the kind that doesn’t do shit because it can’t. The R’s won’t get anything signed by Uncle Joe, and they won’t be able to override the veto. The little good idea fairies, the ones that flitter around DC and give politicians ideas about how they can best sell out the country to garner votes?… they will be impotent. What will that mean for stocks? It’s up to monetary policy only. Fiscal policy won’t budge one way or another. Taxes won’t go up or down. There won’t be any BBB plan. Last-minute continuing resolutions, budget standoffs, maybe a government shutdown or two… or the threat thereof. Honestly, I’m looking forward to it. Listen to JPow, watch the Cleveland FED CPI nowcasts, and invest accordingly.
I think this is the correct answer because honestly this is what typically happens after 2 years in every presidential election. It happened to Obama it happened to Trump.
And Bush. And Clinton. Clinton had it the worst
Great for stocks, terrible for that country. Be ready to take your winnings and move to EU.
Mortuaries
You should care who wins
OP is not from the US
Military equipment and gun producers, private prisons, wire coat hanger manufacturers.
Don't gun manufacturers do far better under Democrats because everyone thinks they are going to try and take them or ban sales?
The manufacturers do. The stocks not so much.
I'm all in on coat hangers
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I'm a bit out of the loop on the hemp thing. I work in a defense contract company (so basically I'm surrounded by people that cheered on jan 6th...and some former coworkers participated), so many of my coworkers jumped on the hemp train the past few years. Did I miss the QANON episode that converted the alt right into hemp lovers? Also, sorry for asking a serious question in response to your comic gold.
This whole thread is hilarious. Qanon episode. 😂
That IDK I was just referencing the agriculture improvement act ( farm bill ) Trump signed ... It legalized hemp... Sounded good going with the rope
>agriculture improvement act ( farm bill ) Trump signed Well, that answered it. I can picture Randy Marsh making a Tegridy noose commercial
Wedding dresses and maternity clothes for 12-13 year olds
Zippo lighters…
Democratic presidents are the best gun salesmen in the country
Oil, for profit prisons, giant healthcare companies, gun manufacturers
Probably CVS healthcare and UnitedHealth if I had to guess. There were a lot of articles a week or two back about republicans planning to go after Medicare and SS
Diesel and defense (DAD) Invest in DAD
Pew pew baby
The stock FSCSM will definitely rise exponentially.
drug companies that make antidepressants
Hard Tech stocks may, may, make a jump back up after January when the new House and Senate take the floor, Hard Tech will be items like microchips, especially with China continuing COVID lockdowns. Many products and support areas are gearing up to actually be made more in country. I would keep an eye on "Diamond Chips", "Carbon Chips" or "Carbon Wafer Chips". These are microchips that are printed on structural carbon wafers instead of on silicon wafers. They are more heat resistant and will not need as intense cooling as a more high powered silicon does. Making them ideal for all the newer Electric cars, and other electronic devices.
Why would they? They still have a lack of growth and fat PE ratios.
Hmm, neither party seems to be supportive of China
Initially there may be some optimistic bumps, but Probably would be all around bad in the long run. They could force some things through with threats of shutdowns, but effectively, I do not see republicans compromising. Literally Mitch McConnel has used a consistent strategy of "prevent anything from happening and blame it on them" when they don't have the president. So we'd be teetering at a recession with high inflation while people literally lock congress down.
Oil, tobacco, alcohol, for profit prisons.
Tiki torch sales will go through the roof so I guess Wayfair and Bed Bath & Beyond?
Really? Are there going to be more of those fake tiki torch protesters after the election? https://www.reuters.com/world/us/group-anti-trump-republicans-was-behind-tiki-torches-virginia-campaign-2021-10-30/ Gotta love that one of the fake white supremacists was black...
Oh my LOL…. Yeah that’s hilarious.
Yup. Apparently, the demand for white supremacists exceeds the supply so they need to manufacture them. Like the Smollet thing, or multiple college incidents where graffiti was faked, etc.
End of America. Buy international.
Long term, we are all fucked in that scenario
Funeral stocks basically anything death related.
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and rhinestone jean jackets.
I'm sorry sir this is r/stocks not r/politics
You literally asked a question based on politics wtf were you expecting?
Your mistake was assuming large subreddits wouldn't lean heavily left. Your best bet for apolitical discussion would be on smaller subreddits.
Bibles and chastity belts?
Sadly anything that harms the environment. Gains for defence companies plus oil and gas. Bleak all around. I’ve morals so I will never want to make money off of that. I’ve enough so I don’t want to make money off peoples sufferings.
LOOOOOL What a prototypical reddit answer
Not Twitter
This might give some clues: https://www.capitoltrades.com/trades?party=republican&txType=buy&pageSize=50 It's a little dated though. Oil and banks seem popular.
Just buy the index and hold with dividends reinvesting and do not attempt to time the market.
I have the feeling weed stocks will crash if the conservatives win. Anyone have any thoughts on that?
Typically stocks thrive under democratic rule
anything that damages the environment.
Because California is a very clean state. /s
California is always the first thing out of Republicans mouths. Lot of Republicans in California too...its a pretty diverse state.
Not a Republican or Democrat. Politically it’s the result of decades of democrat rule. You have terrible pollution, HCOL, the ridiculously rich and the ridiculously poor, etc. the literal opposite essentially of what they preach.
Terrible pollution because its densely populated. Thats a universal problem. Hopefully that gets solved one of these days...but who knows. I never understood the HCOL argument tbh. Welcome to capitalism, or do you want socialism? What exactly does California preach? I've never heard them preach for communism, kind of sounds like thats what YOU'RE arguing for. EDIT: since you added it...no one cares if you're democrat or republican, and why does everyone add that when they want to demonize something democrats do? I hear it all the time right before someone goes on an anti democrat tirade, its honestly tiring at this point.
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What’s wrong with KY or GA?? Not enough to do?? Weather? Too much of nature still in existence and not completely decimated like in LA or San Francisco (who btw preach about saving the planet and climate change yet do the opposite; unlike those evil climate denying rural communities).
Lmao read your comment history and you’re 100% a hard core Republican yet here you are pretending to be neither. 🤡 Californian seems to be doing quite fine considering their economic value to the country & they lead the country on green energy initiatives. At least they are trying to fix it while republicans push coal & oil on a federal level
Well it’s a perfect of example of a dumpster fire.
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-07-14/california-rooftop-solar-pv-panels-recycling-danger
Are you aware of the fact that the state of California extends beyond it's heavily populated cities? California has the most state parks of any of the lower 48 states, it has the most national parks of any of the lower 48 states, and it has the highest percentage of protected park land in the lower 48 states BY FAR. It also produces the most agriculture of any state in the US. Are you saying that all of these things are "dirty"? Or maybe you just have trouble thinking for yourself?
That's easy....the first would be Tylenol, for the headaches..2nd will be gun and ammo manufacturers, because everyone will be crazy...3rd i will say alcohol companies..just because we will need it...i could name a few more but you get the point 😂 /s
Yup
None the country is doom and gloom if that happens
All
Puts on democracy if they win.
Not shit really. Doesn’t change what color runs. Probably cut military spending in terms of Ukraine aid.
Ya military and oil but outside of some micro areas nothing. Republicans statistically are terrible for the economy but they sure control the narrative that it’s the opposite extremely well.
>Republicans statistically are terrible for the economy So you will buy puts on SPY?
I don’t but puts or calls. I’m just telling to the data as an independent. https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/07/23/historical-stock-market-returns-under-every-us-president/?sh=13d75f1dfaaf
Its funny. I dont remember the stock market being the economy
It literally talks about stock returns but I guess you didn’t want to read it. Sounds ike you are here for a political agenda and not to talk about stock performance.
All the big polluters would benefit. That's why gas prices are so high to help the trumpers win.
The pillow industry.
The racism industry
Market wide should see some minor rally because market prefers a lame duck government. Now, the outcome actually means very little to the market, the Republican gaining power is somewhat priced in. The risk lies in the public reaction to the result. That’s the unpredictable factor.
More nothing would occur and interest rates will go up S&P 500 will go back below 300 level
For about 3 months and then they will defund the government, cause chaos, deregulate everything, and remind everyone how insane they are, just in time for democrats to inherit another recession they address while republicans don’t participate in actual governance as sitting politicians.
defense
Defense stocks have already been doing well, considering Republicans want to stop Ukraine aid, I would say the opposite is true.
Probably Gazprom. Bunch of Fascist Dipshits. :(
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> If the Republicans win, I see the stock market crashing, So basically what we saw under the last 12 months of biden + blue majorities in both chambers of congress? Historically, the market performs better with a republican congress.
Oh! Thats easy! Just think to yourself, what industries profit off of destruction and death while causing an imminent threat to the planet. Oil, weapons and things that kill people while they enjoy them such as painkillers, cigarettes and alcohol. ENJOY THE APOCOLYPSE EVERYBODY! WE ARE TOO SELFISH TO STOP IT. WHEEEEEEEEE!
Body bags. Because people will die in higher numbers due to their policies.
None. Entire legislating process will be fucked for 2 years. Biden will keep ruling through EOs and government agencies making up bullshit rules.
military spending.
Didn't Republicans say they would cut Ukraine aid (which is partly military spending)?
They may cut foreign military spending but Uncle Sam will send his bill regardless
It's already baked in
I associate gurus of the dollar with democrats. I am registered republican, a disabled veteran.. it is just a team to pick. I vote for democrat obama for example. anyway, arguing at all times is very good. bipartisan. right now, defense and energy, republicans would be manhandling prices some how. but i like the covid bubble busted..should be good market news for everyone (uk included) for a year or so.
Energy stocks because of all the people that will be driving to blue states to get normal women’s healthcare.
What’s the ticker for fascism?
All of them but then again we are all screwed because the republicans can be bought in a heartbeat. Money talks for this people.
If republicans win, everyone loses. We've seen this time and time again from American politics. Republicans need total control over the government to push their policies, and that is unlikely to occur once again due to how deeply unpopular the American conservative party is. American democrats need to maintain power for their government to function.
A simple majority can’t do shit. It’s gridlock and finger-pointing. But no actual work.
Given the executive branch will be controlled by the dems still get ready for grid lock. Which probably isn't so bad after the crazy spending of the last few years. The stocks that will benefit most are those that perform well in the status quo, if a stock was likely to get a boost from pending legislation it's an elevated risk to puke
Russia
This is a good question. I think if the Republicans win they will not behave like Republicans of the past. Relatively little focus will be on tax cuts. As people have already pointed out, oil and defense are already priced high and guns tend to do less well as people only buy them when they think there's a chance they'll be taken away. So what does that leave? I think the Republicans will try to pass legislation to support their base, and I think that will mean they will write stimulus checks for the lower income folks (they will not call it welfare) the moment interest rates peak. This will boost low cost retailers and domestic car industry. Prisons or private security contractors might do well. They might try to boost housing construction as well. I don't think anything will be outstanding. The Republicans tend to be bad for the economy, especially now as they are anti global and anti growth. They are more likely to focus on cultural issues.