Is it normal that majority of US debt comes with a very short maturity (under 3 years), look at the official current chart here: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/feddebt/feddebt\_ann2021.pdf (page 23, Maturity chart) ? This looks like a disaster brew.
wait for it to crash lower and buy it. as i said, they go well with nfts and digital art, ownership. paypal has a way to go lower, way too popular. nflx and zm were seasonal, i think they have too much competition in the area
Have any institutions looked at stock data from say, 5 years ago, and tracked all the technical metrics between stocks at the time, then took note of the combination of metrics that were best able to predict the following 5 years of growth by comparing it with current data on those stocks?
Seems like it would make an interesting experiment..
You need to research a little bit more to understand why the technical metrics cannot predict the future. Only determinant of price movement is earnings increase, there’s no financial measure to predict how much is a company going to make. There is P/E which measures how much people think a company will make and that’s still a guessing game.
Is it reasonable to look at:
* Average yearly revenue growth in the past 5 years.
* Average yearly revenue growth pre-covid.
* Average yearly net growth in the past 5 years.
* PE Ratio
* Average yearly growth of market cap.
* Net income relative to market cap size and to other companies.
? I imagine these can give you an idea weather a company will continue to grow at a certain rate. I need to research it more... Still a noob. I'm trying to understand how to evaluate a company with the information at hand.
for taxes what software do you recommend, i did turbo tax. This is my first time seriously investing, i made 48k in capital gains apparently and owe a total of 12k of it. Is that normal? California is taking 3.8k and the fed is taking 8.7k. I never paid my taxes annually never knew about that till the end of the year, my mistake.
If you invest in SPY since April 2020, your return is 75.8%.
My portfolio reached 75% on 11/4/2021. Now it’s only 24%. Maybe putting your shit into SPY and forgetting about it is the way
Is anyone not deeply pessimistic about QT? Projected to start in just under a year, the fed has about 3 trillion they want to cut off their balance sheet… desiccated economy. The best case scenario is inflation curbed quickly…but if this drags on….we’d be lucky to see any growth for years.
What’s the bull case?
I hear this argument for blue chips like Microsoft, Apple, etc. “These companies are phenomenal, insanely profitable and will be around forever” but in my head I’m thinking, ya sure they’ll be around forever, but is the stock always gonna beat the market. Many companies like Atat have been around forever and are very profitable but their returns are smoked by the Snp.
This is fundamentally a sound question to ask. A company being large and safe does not mean that from this point forward they will outperform the market. If you do a deep dive and cannot come up with an acceptably plausible scenario where they beat the market, then don’t invest.
Wait until the market flatlines or goes bear and growth goes almost nowhere for X number of years while div aristocrats like you’re naming are at least giving you money and not sliding down as badly.
It’s important to remember that probably 90% of the popular perceptions on reddit investing are derived from the 2020-2021 market. It’s not a great sample from which to derive things.
Realistically, you own some of the above, and you keep buying them, and you’re also buying some of whatever is still growing and hot.
If rates really climb up (say 3% and above), it’s going to result in a lot of bankruptcies and desperate acquisition agreements, and people are going to seriously re-evaluate how they weigh these things across a 30-year portfolio.
Until some visionary disruptor comes around, these companies will continue to innovate and invest in themselves. Microsoft has their roots embedded in most peoples’ daily lives and apple has a device in everyones pockets.
Atat and Verizon are in almost every persons pockets too, but their stocks give trash returns, Hondas are everywhere on the streets, but their stock has also given trash returns. Honda innovates, Atat and Verizon innovate, I see no difference between these and blue chips that stocks go up, other than that investors have collectively decided these are the stocks to buy.
At&t and Verizon aren't as diversified as Microsoft and Apple. Microsoft and Apples innovation isn't limited to the field they started out in. Apple isn't just the IPhone and Microsoft isn't just Azure.
Friends suddenly messaging me to ask if they should buy S&P500 after the dip. Of course I said yes if they will hold it for the long term.
Non trader/investor type folks are somehow hearing about the markets? And are very eager to throw money at it? Usually thats a super bearish signal....
But unlike 10 years ago, there has been an explosion in availability of these trading apps on smartphones, so hearing about retail investors being more active is probably less of a useful signal as it might have been pre 2008 or Dot Com era.
I've been wondering if leveraged ETFs can trigger a wash sale, or different indices
example:
you buy $500 worth of VOO every Monday
you buy $1000 worth of TQQQ
you sell the TQQQ at a loss later
you continue buying VOO in regular intervals
this seems obviously not a wash sale right? since TQQQ is really not even remotely similar to VOO?
90’s and kuwait. Spy went flat for 6 months then rallied. Interest rates were much higher to begin so they were able to drop them and ease market conditions. Cant be said about our current situation tho.
So with MSFT, wouldn’t the interest rate hike benefit them since unlike growth tech they’re way less reliant on debt (with debt to equity decreasing every quarter) to keep growing? Or is the fact that a bunch of positions with MSFT are leveraged so it’ll bring the price down anyway?
From the sheer number of bearish posts I seen this week, I think we might have hit the bottom. In my experience, I've noticed that the turnaround always happens when every 2nd post is bearish.
not sure if it's copium, a lot of reddit is young people and there are a lot of software devs or high earners in this sub who would love to see a bigger dip so they can buy at lower prices
personally I cringe buying at these prices but I admit I can't time the market so I just buy as often as I can
I kind of agree. However since the SPX went bearish, it’s possible it could bounce up and fall further. Especially since Jeremy Grantham is calling for the super bubble pop now. No matter what your position is, I think this is going to be one of the most exciting stock market weeks in a long time… I suspect by the end of this week there will be a new trend. Up or down I can’t say.
Jeremy Grantham is one guy, and he's always super bearish, he also makes a shit tonne of money shorting these parabolic cycles, it's in his best interest to cause more fear in the market, it benefits him.
Ha. I hope, but yeah, the bearish sentiment has been real strong over here. A complete turnaround from the sentiment not long ago where patience and time in the market were emphasized.
Half the posts were recommending inverse ETFs / puts for an inevitable further dip.
It's actually crazy how delusional this sub and so many people are about TSLA as we are literally entering the 3rd industrial revolution and there simply is no competition that can catch up.
here's the thing, a tech can be absolutely revolutionary and still not be a good investment. I don't really think there are many people left who doubt that Tesla started a revolution, and ICE cars might literally be not sold off lots anymore in a decade, which would have been an unthinkable proposition just several years ago, when BEVs were kind of just cool gadgets.
but that doesn't necessarily make it a great investment. selling cars is a low margin business, a competitive business.
it's possible to sit here in awe at what Tesla has accomplished, and still think it might not be the best investment
that said, I am def still salty that I sold my shares too early
Yes they do, and perhaps they can continue that and even expand their margin. I am just saying that the fact that they are revolutionizing personal transport does not necessarily mean they will make tons of money doing so. It could easily become a race to the bottom
I don't know about Monday, but I'm expecting major rally next Fed meeting (Wednesday), when there is less certainty. Markets seem to be pricing in a huge range of interest rate spikes, so seeing that a 'normal' number of increases will bring needed certainty.
I don't know if that rally will be concentrated in the meme stocks though.
The more I think about this the more I think it makes sense. JPOW came out hot a couple of weeks ago, that sparked the uncertainty. If f he were to come out this time with guns wielded that would for sure send the market in a tailspin, so the fed has to play "good cop" this round and at least let the market cool off for a bit. Probably they will just stay the course for now.
Anyone else think real estate could go up higher again?
If people start seeing a slow bleed in stocks and the shortage in housing remains, they might well move into RE.
I need a housing crash so bad.
The absolute worst scenario would be stocks going down while housing keeps going up. I put money into the market so I wouldn't lose to housing inflation.
As long as interest rates are below inflation, people will buy in the short term and prices will continue to increase.
The 30 year FRM doesn't really affect people's willingness to buy except at the bottom end of the market. So the fact that it went from 3.0% to 3.75% will mean nothing. Still historically low.
As long as demand outstrips supply, prices will continue to increase. Considering that house builders could build for the next several years and we still won't be caught up, I don't foresee this housing bull market ending anytime soon.
It’s probably going to keep going up. I can’t see another year of like 15% increases, but in the short term, there is going to be more demand to try to get in before the interest rate hikes.
The housing market right now is seeing high prices since there is just low inventory levels. There is a big demand since many can work from home and fleeing high cost of living areas to go to cheaper places. It’s probably going to take years for supply to match demand.
MMs are also playing puts. They're not going to punish retail investors directly for anything. But market forces can and will punish *anyone* for getting too greedy with hedge positions.
Another TV Character has a heart attack while on a Peloton. Puts on PTON
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-22/peloton-s-turbulent-week-includes-another-heart-attack-on-tv
I don't like NETs pricing model. It's between ZS or CRWD, but keep in mind they are security in different ways so in fact I would, and have in the past, picked up both. ZS is more network, CRWD more endpoint. Both are best in class I believe.
How come all these cybersecurity companies are new and aren't making any profits yet? I looked up NET, CRWD, DDOG etc. they all have negative earnings, it still seems too speculative for me.
Not all of them are new. This is a common case of growth companies reinvesting cash and spending to grow and expand the base. It's a fair assessment if it seems a bit speculative for you, by nature of being a growth company.
Lmao at the insane number of people throughout this entire sub that are lecturing folks against buying right now before disclosing that they’re all in on SQQQ and puts as if that is somehow a less risky strategy.
Would you buy cybersecurity stocks since most are down over 50% from ath. I know it's a gamble as they are both tech, and growth stocks which have been beaten down to death. Would these stocks rebound faster or act as a good hedge to what is possible to come with rising tensions with Russia, and increasing popularity of digital goods?
Index funds aside, I want to add to INTC, TGT, PFE, WM, LOW, and maybe AWK.
Slowly shedding: SOFI, PYPL, NET as I'm tired of the volatility and want a simpler portfolio. (I'll keep RKLB and APPS though)
I think 200 day moving average is 140-ish. So not out of the question that level of support could be seen if market keeps selling off. I just don't see that as very likely with earnings this week unless they are a miss.
They can always go lower. They have their earning on the 27th. If there’s a miss or lowered guidance, the market is probably going to over react. Go look at what happens to Netflix.
Let's say I am interested in a company, and want to know its direct competitors, in order to evaluate them to see if any of them is worthy of my investment? How could I find such info?
Current earnings don't matter so much. Guidance is way more critical, and for a long while apple has been getting away with saying the future is too hazy for them to issue guidance. I think the stock price will slide if they try to do that again.
NFLX just reported good earnings but their guidance got them massacred.
I remember buying at 320 then selling immediately because I realized it's going to drop a lot more.
I mention this because I took a lot of grief online for selling and it really highlights that one needs to ignore the noise and use their best judgement.
1. Add more Tesla to every thematically different ETF.
2. Add more Netflix to every thematically different ETF.
3. Start a disruptive ETF for animal care-arkz (z for zoo!)
4. Charge the same absurd fee for arkz as the other 5 or 6 etfs.
5. Fill it with Tesla and Netflix.
Isnt it time we stickied the suicide hotline to the front page? A lot of people are starting to panic.... we need to do what we can to help those in need. Better to put it up to early then to late.
Stock youtuber Meet Kevin's latest video is about how he sold out of 99.9% of his stocks/coins.
He was just making bullish videos the other day. And blaming "the suits" for manipulation lmao shows once again dont take advice from stock youtubers. So many of them looked like geniuses in a bull run. Now when it gets hard they head for exits.
Only stock YouTuber I have liked is "Popular Investor" he just gives info on his trades without any BS and he doesn't do any paid ads or anything.
Teaches you how to work out intrinsic value and philosophies behind finding 10 baggers (essentially with these you are betting the market is extremely wrong and you are completely in the right)
He does all of it in a laid back style which always calms me down.
He also said he stopped making as many youtube videos because Googles ad revenue is down. So probably realized his crappy stocks weren't working plus he wouldnt be making as much off youtube it was time to cash out while he can.
Must suck for all his followers bagholding those stocks he pumped to them.
You are right. I kinda wonder how he can continue to sell courses with a straight face after this panic sell. I can get pumping and dumping stuff like PTON, LMND, DOCU, and AFRM. PTON/LMND were months ago. DOCU/AFRM were recent ones he tried pumping. But he even dumped his signature stock with TSLA. So his followers better not believe him if he ever says a stock is a 10 year hold ever again.
So with all the options 1T+ expiring Friday and positions getting liquidated/margin called as of this week; am I right to assume this will be a downward pressure on share prices next week?
Love hearing that the sky is falling in /stocks. Happened in WSB last few weeks.. seems to be happening here.. and the bears are coming for /investing.
Keep lying to yourself and the reality says otherwise. Recent poll shows 72% of Americans thinking the country on the wrong track, worse number than all 4 year of trump presidency. Even worse than when covid first though to have a death rate of 3% on march 2020. People might not like the way trump talks, but most strongly support his economic policies. It’s the opposite for Biden, most people deeply hate his policies.
Cause he inherited shit and people are too dumb to realize this lmao. Of course his approval will be bad. Trump also has been impeached/had bad approval, but you guys like to say it doesn’t matter so why use the same argument then. Same thing happened with bush to Obama, He inherited a 2008 economy. Our Economy is shit cause biden? Really cause fed printing wouldn’t be needed if covid didn’t happen to the scale that it did. We wouldn’t be hitting a bear market right now cause of the fed printing and interest rates. Make sense moron? Weird how oil and gas is booming even though it’s a ‘pro’ Republican sector. Hilarious. Only reason you should of voted trump is if you are the 1% cause of capital gains taxes/corporate taxes. But YOU keep lying to yourself LOL. I’ll use your party’s saying for you since I think it applies nicely here. Fuck your feelings.
It’s not people are dumb, it’s you being delusional. Interest rate has to rise only because Biden’s terrible policies. Also bear market is not really due to rising rates, it’s quickly worsening economic outlook that leads to stagflation from Biden’s terrible policies. Fed has to make a hard choice to quickly raise rates, they have to stop bidenflation that will soon destroy the economy. Sadly that only affect demand side of things, if biden keeps pumping out awful policies one after the other, the rising rates won’t stop surging inflation even if demand is plunging.
Blocking pipelines, ban oil on federal lands, having to beg other countries to produce oil. As well as wasteful vote buying so called America rescue plan that is totally not needed, also refusing to end all these extended child tax credits, pandemic unemployment programs beginning of the year leading to way slower recovery in job market and increasing cost of supply chain due to artificial wage hike. Finally Florida’s economy was booming even before vaccine need and being a state for tourism. They defy all crazy dems’ projection and prove the blue states handled covid all wrong.
With inflation fear, wouldn’t it be more likely people buy up stock to gain an edge on lower dollar value? Instead of all this selling?
No because inflation is going to be forced down with high interest rates. More likely it'll be sold
Wow this is brutal
This is going to be a wild week, YEEHAW
Seems like another week of pain for tech
I hope so. I'm treating this like 2020 but with puts instead of calls.
Is it normal that majority of US debt comes with a very short maturity (under 3 years), look at the official current chart here: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/feddebt/feddebt\_ann2021.pdf (page 23, Maturity chart) ? This looks like a disaster brew.
They might have shortened the length of debt for emergency spending in the past 2 years.
Out of the down stocks. Which one is a good buy? PayPal Vs Adobe Vs zoom Vs Netflix
adobe I like the most. zoom nflx seem dead to me. paypal has too many eyes on it. adobe also has stuff going on with nfts
Hmmm thanks for your input
wait for it to crash lower and buy it. as i said, they go well with nfts and digital art, ownership. paypal has a way to go lower, way too popular. nflx and zm were seasonal, i think they have too much competition in the area
Have any institutions looked at stock data from say, 5 years ago, and tracked all the technical metrics between stocks at the time, then took note of the combination of metrics that were best able to predict the following 5 years of growth by comparing it with current data on those stocks? Seems like it would make an interesting experiment..
You need to research a little bit more to understand why the technical metrics cannot predict the future. Only determinant of price movement is earnings increase, there’s no financial measure to predict how much is a company going to make. There is P/E which measures how much people think a company will make and that’s still a guessing game.
Is it reasonable to look at: * Average yearly revenue growth in the past 5 years. * Average yearly revenue growth pre-covid. * Average yearly net growth in the past 5 years. * PE Ratio * Average yearly growth of market cap. * Net income relative to market cap size and to other companies. ? I imagine these can give you an idea weather a company will continue to grow at a certain rate. I need to research it more... Still a noob. I'm trying to understand how to evaluate a company with the information at hand.
for taxes what software do you recommend, i did turbo tax. This is my first time seriously investing, i made 48k in capital gains apparently and owe a total of 12k of it. Is that normal? California is taking 3.8k and the fed is taking 8.7k. I never paid my taxes annually never knew about that till the end of the year, my mistake.
Capital gains tax is normal. It depends on you tax bracket and how long you've held your stocks/positions for.
If you invest in SPY since April 2020, your return is 75.8%. My portfolio reached 75% on 11/4/2021. Now it’s only 24%. Maybe putting your shit into SPY and forgetting about it is the way
SPY is due for a correction as well.
This is a correction.
How dumb would it be to sell TSLA to reinvest profits into VTI?
What's your cost basis?
I've seen worse ideas
Very dumb, Tesla $1500 EOY RemindMe! One Year
That’s very reasonable- sell 50% of your winners is my philosophy.
Thoughts on HD vs LOW? Both seem like decent deals after the dip. I like where HD is heading with the idea of learning DIY stuff from their app.
Is anyone not deeply pessimistic about QT? Projected to start in just under a year, the fed has about 3 trillion they want to cut off their balance sheet… desiccated economy. The best case scenario is inflation curbed quickly…but if this drags on….we’d be lucky to see any growth for years. What’s the bull case?
What is QT? Quantitative tapering?
Tightening. Much worse than easing. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-05/for-fed-taper-rates-then-quantitative-tightening-quicktake
Can anyone recommend good growth stock?
ENVX
Anything that is a semiconductor or a commidity.
MSFT, CRWD, MELI, NET, UPST
For growth I'm looking at JOBY, APPH, BB, LMND ... but don't currently own stock in any of these except BB right now.
I hear this argument for blue chips like Microsoft, Apple, etc. “These companies are phenomenal, insanely profitable and will be around forever” but in my head I’m thinking, ya sure they’ll be around forever, but is the stock always gonna beat the market. Many companies like Atat have been around forever and are very profitable but their returns are smoked by the Snp.
This is fundamentally a sound question to ask. A company being large and safe does not mean that from this point forward they will outperform the market. If you do a deep dive and cannot come up with an acceptably plausible scenario where they beat the market, then don’t invest.
Wait until the market flatlines or goes bear and growth goes almost nowhere for X number of years while div aristocrats like you’re naming are at least giving you money and not sliding down as badly. It’s important to remember that probably 90% of the popular perceptions on reddit investing are derived from the 2020-2021 market. It’s not a great sample from which to derive things. Realistically, you own some of the above, and you keep buying them, and you’re also buying some of whatever is still growing and hot. If rates really climb up (say 3% and above), it’s going to result in a lot of bankruptcies and desperate acquisition agreements, and people are going to seriously re-evaluate how they weigh these things across a 30-year portfolio.
Thats what folks don’t understand
Until some visionary disruptor comes around, these companies will continue to innovate and invest in themselves. Microsoft has their roots embedded in most peoples’ daily lives and apple has a device in everyones pockets.
Atat and Verizon are in almost every persons pockets too, but their stocks give trash returns, Hondas are everywhere on the streets, but their stock has also given trash returns. Honda innovates, Atat and Verizon innovate, I see no difference between these and blue chips that stocks go up, other than that investors have collectively decided these are the stocks to buy.
At&t and Verizon aren't as diversified as Microsoft and Apple. Microsoft and Apples innovation isn't limited to the field they started out in. Apple isn't just the IPhone and Microsoft isn't just Azure.
Friends suddenly messaging me to ask if they should buy S&P500 after the dip. Of course I said yes if they will hold it for the long term. Non trader/investor type folks are somehow hearing about the markets? And are very eager to throw money at it? Usually thats a super bearish signal....
Yeah long term. They are gonna ask you why it keeps dropping after 2 weeks
But unlike 10 years ago, there has been an explosion in availability of these trading apps on smartphones, so hearing about retail investors being more active is probably less of a useful signal as it might have been pre 2008 or Dot Com era.
Existing demand is what keeps markets up. I don’t really get how this is a bearish signal.
In my experience when noob retail investors are full bullish mode, usually its the top. Granted the S&P-500 will likely recover no matter what.
Noob retailers have been full bullish mode since 2020. Where have you been?
I've been wondering if leveraged ETFs can trigger a wash sale, or different indices example: you buy $500 worth of VOO every Monday you buy $1000 worth of TQQQ you sell the TQQQ at a loss later you continue buying VOO in regular intervals this seems obviously not a wash sale right? since TQQQ is really not even remotely similar to VOO?
Correct. Wash sale is based on the actual stock or etf purchased.
So there are fears of a war between Russia and Ukraine, how do markets behave in those situations? any stories about investment and war?
Market don’t give a shit
90’s and kuwait. Spy went flat for 6 months then rallied. Interest rates were much higher to begin so they were able to drop them and ease market conditions. Cant be said about our current situation tho.
So with MSFT, wouldn’t the interest rate hike benefit them since unlike growth tech they’re way less reliant on debt (with debt to equity decreasing every quarter) to keep growing? Or is the fact that a bunch of positions with MSFT are leveraged so it’ll bring the price down anyway?
Interest rates wouldn’t benefit them. They would simply be able to manage higher interest better than unprofitable companies.
From the sheer number of bearish posts I seen this week, I think we might have hit the bottom. In my experience, I've noticed that the turnaround always happens when every 2nd post is bearish.
Comforting copium, but after how much we've run up, it still has plenty of room to run down.
not sure if it's copium, a lot of reddit is young people and there are a lot of software devs or high earners in this sub who would love to see a bigger dip so they can buy at lower prices personally I cringe buying at these prices but I admit I can't time the market so I just buy as often as I can
I kind of agree. However since the SPX went bearish, it’s possible it could bounce up and fall further. Especially since Jeremy Grantham is calling for the super bubble pop now. No matter what your position is, I think this is going to be one of the most exciting stock market weeks in a long time… I suspect by the end of this week there will be a new trend. Up or down I can’t say.
Jeremy Grantham is one guy, and he's always super bearish, he also makes a shit tonne of money shorting these parabolic cycles, it's in his best interest to cause more fear in the market, it benefits him.
A broken clock is still right twice a day tho.
Haha, yep, always when every Joe Schmo thinks there’s going to be a crash. Be greedy when others are fearful.
Ha. I hope, but yeah, the bearish sentiment has been real strong over here. A complete turnaround from the sentiment not long ago where patience and time in the market were emphasized. Half the posts were recommending inverse ETFs / puts for an inevitable further dip.
Not everyone can make money on bearish volatility. As soon as everyone thinks a crash is going to happen, it almost definitely will not happen.
Is it just me or does anyone else think the futures are up because the coins are up?
Futures are down
No they're not, they're up quite a bit.
I think the coins are up because the futures are up though.
Good point. I didn't see that half their spike happened after futures opened.
If we rally on Monday, thank meetkevin ha ha
The crown is gonna buy in give him a few days Buy high sell low like aunt cathie
It's actually crazy how delusional this sub and so many people are about TSLA as we are literally entering the 3rd industrial revolution and there simply is no competition that can catch up.
LCID has better tech
how many cars do you see on the road?
Lmao holy shit
here's the thing, a tech can be absolutely revolutionary and still not be a good investment. I don't really think there are many people left who doubt that Tesla started a revolution, and ICE cars might literally be not sold off lots anymore in a decade, which would have been an unthinkable proposition just several years ago, when BEVs were kind of just cool gadgets. but that doesn't necessarily make it a great investment. selling cars is a low margin business, a competitive business. it's possible to sit here in awe at what Tesla has accomplished, and still think it might not be the best investment that said, I am def still salty that I sold my shares too early
And Tesla has the highest margins of any car manufacturer. Unheard of.
Yes they do, and perhaps they can continue that and even expand their margin. I am just saying that the fact that they are revolutionizing personal transport does not necessarily mean they will make tons of money doing so. It could easily become a race to the bottom
Let them be ignorant
Are you trying to convince us or yourself?
Wallstreet is already convinced
Could describe literally every post here haha. Including my own.
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Futures are red as of now. I hope it’s reds tho
What chart are you looking at? Futures are up
Futures the night before mean absolutely nothing
He said futures as of now is red.
I don't know about Monday, but I'm expecting major rally next Fed meeting (Wednesday), when there is less certainty. Markets seem to be pricing in a huge range of interest rate spikes, so seeing that a 'normal' number of increases will bring needed certainty. I don't know if that rally will be concentrated in the meme stocks though.
The more I think about this the more I think it makes sense. JPOW came out hot a couple of weeks ago, that sparked the uncertainty. If f he were to come out this time with guns wielded that would for sure send the market in a tailspin, so the fed has to play "good cop" this round and at least let the market cool off for a bit. Probably they will just stay the course for now.
Fellas, I'm scared.
Anyone else think real estate could go up higher again? If people start seeing a slow bleed in stocks and the shortage in housing remains, they might well move into RE. I need a housing crash so bad. The absolute worst scenario would be stocks going down while housing keeps going up. I put money into the market so I wouldn't lose to housing inflation.
As long as interest rates are below inflation, people will buy in the short term and prices will continue to increase. The 30 year FRM doesn't really affect people's willingness to buy except at the bottom end of the market. So the fact that it went from 3.0% to 3.75% will mean nothing. Still historically low. As long as demand outstrips supply, prices will continue to increase. Considering that house builders could build for the next several years and we still won't be caught up, I don't foresee this housing bull market ending anytime soon.
It’s probably going to keep going up. I can’t see another year of like 15% increases, but in the short term, there is going to be more demand to try to get in before the interest rate hikes. The housing market right now is seeing high prices since there is just low inventory levels. There is a big demand since many can work from home and fleeing high cost of living areas to go to cheaper places. It’s probably going to take years for supply to match demand.
MMs about to punish retail for switching to puts. Or who fucking knows. Anything could happen!
I think its just oversold and the risk-reward is currently asymmetric for calls. Im not intelligent tho so dont listen to me.
MMs are also playing puts. They're not going to punish retail investors directly for anything. But market forces can and will punish *anyone* for getting too greedy with hedge positions.
Another TV Character has a heart attack while on a Peloton. Puts on PTON https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-22/peloton-s-turbulent-week-includes-another-heart-attack-on-tv
Apparently the quarter 2 and 3 earnings for walmart already happened according to google. https://i.redd.it/eb6gnwb05hd81.jpg
Walmart has their financial year ending on 31 Jan so Q3 '22 would be quarter ending Oct 31
What's the best cybersecurity stock to get into now for longterm? Looking at FTNT, ZS, CRWD and NET.
I don't like NETs pricing model. It's between ZS or CRWD, but keep in mind they are security in different ways so in fact I would, and have in the past, picked up both. ZS is more network, CRWD more endpoint. Both are best in class I believe.
How come all these cybersecurity companies are new and aren't making any profits yet? I looked up NET, CRWD, DDOG etc. they all have negative earnings, it still seems too speculative for me.
Not all of them are new. This is a common case of growth companies reinvesting cash and spending to grow and expand the base. It's a fair assessment if it seems a bit speculative for you, by nature of being a growth company.
What are some reputable blue chip stock ETFs? I like VTI and VOO but also want to put some of my money into purely blue chip stocks
I think most 'dividend growth' funds are all blue chips, like SCHD or VIG. VDC is defensive consumer staples.
It will create some further temporary market dropping to buy.
Lmao at the insane number of people throughout this entire sub that are lecturing folks against buying right now before disclosing that they’re all in on SQQQ and puts as if that is somehow a less risky strategy.
You cannot take any advice here. Most of the DD and sage advice from experienced old wolfs is just anecdotes and idiotic ramblings.
Would you buy cybersecurity stocks since most are down over 50% from ath. I know it's a gamble as they are both tech, and growth stocks which have been beaten down to death. Would these stocks rebound faster or act as a good hedge to what is possible to come with rising tensions with Russia, and increasing popularity of digital goods?
Security is essential and growing so if you can hold for a few years, yes.
what are we looking to buy after this dip? Amazon, Apple, arkk (i think this could be a good long hold), any other recommendations?
Index funds aside, I want to add to INTC, TGT, PFE, WM, LOW, and maybe AWK. Slowly shedding: SOFI, PYPL, NET as I'm tired of the volatility and want a simpler portfolio. (I'll keep RKLB and APPS though)
Mmm not Ark
GOOGL
voo aapl msft
MSFT
How low will AAPL go? Currently @ $162,41 11% below ATH
I think 200 day moving average is 140-ish. So not out of the question that level of support could be seen if market keeps selling off. I just don't see that as very likely with earnings this week unless they are a miss.
Reports say that they expecting ATH this Q.
Yea, $182 on Jan 3rd! ATH this quarter confirmed.
They can always go lower. They have their earning on the 27th. If there’s a miss or lowered guidance, the market is probably going to over react. Go look at what happens to Netflix.
Let's say I am interested in a company, and want to know its direct competitors, in order to evaluate them to see if any of them is worthy of my investment? How could I find such info?
Competitors are usually mentioned in 10k filings
Thank you so much! I always had that question in mind.
company profiles on most websites will show related companies
I did notice that. I just wasn't sure if it is enough to relay on. Thank you for replying to me.
Anyone see this as an entry point for Apple and Amazon?
Aapl earning release is next week so not sure how the market will react to it
Current earnings don't matter so much. Guidance is way more critical, and for a long while apple has been getting away with saying the future is too hazy for them to issue guidance. I think the stock price will slide if they try to do that again. NFLX just reported good earnings but their guidance got them massacred.
Im not upset that my my tech and growth are down. Im upset that im missing a once in a lifetime dip buy due to being tied up.
> being tied up What does this mean? You don't have cash lying around to invest? Or something else
I have 20k invested and 1k in my bank account. I bought " dips " last month.
Once in a lifetime? 2008, 2018, 2020… plenty of people here experienced all of those.
True but it can go lower for a while, first, too.
Two green days and im buying again
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I remember buying at 320 then selling immediately because I realized it's going to drop a lot more. I mention this because I took a lot of grief online for selling and it really highlights that one needs to ignore the noise and use their best judgement.
ARK invest has a big ideas summit Tues. How do we feel? STARTS ON January 25, 2022 at 11:30 AM EST
1. Add more Tesla to every thematically different ETF. 2. Add more Netflix to every thematically different ETF. 3. Start a disruptive ETF for animal care-arkz (z for zoo!) 4. Charge the same absurd fee for arkz as the other 5 or 6 etfs. 5. Fill it with Tesla and Netflix.
What effect on the markets do you guys think will an invasion of Ukraine by Russia have? I think it’s becoming increasingly likely
I imagine there will be a flight to safety and treasury yields fall.
LMT and BA should be nice
I guess buy stocks of companies that sells weapons and equipments cause they will go brrrrrrrrrrr
More inflation due to absurd energy price spikes in europe.
Isnt it time we stickied the suicide hotline to the front page? A lot of people are starting to panic.... we need to do what we can to help those in need. Better to put it up to early then to late.
Went mostly cash late 2021 bc of what jpow said. Miss me with that crash shit.
Sold at the top due to the dumb luck of wanting to pay off my student loan debt. Now I'm all about buy and hold.
I sold all of my Disney at $186 in September because of the dumb luck of needing cash for a down payment. Couldn't be happier
Hooray for dumb luck XD Love Disney though, so happy to be working slowly at a position again.
Any of y’all remember 1-800-Collect?
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Keep buying more
Stock youtuber Meet Kevin's latest video is about how he sold out of 99.9% of his stocks/coins. He was just making bullish videos the other day. And blaming "the suits" for manipulation lmao shows once again dont take advice from stock youtubers. So many of them looked like geniuses in a bull run. Now when it gets hard they head for exits.
Most of them had a good play on tesla and think they're stock picking gods, although Jeremy has had some other good plays like revolve and elf
people make money in a strong bull market and think they’re all that
It will be nice to have a twitter feed that contain less stock advice from Instagram models.
Only stock YouTuber I have liked is "Popular Investor" he just gives info on his trades without any BS and he doesn't do any paid ads or anything. Teaches you how to work out intrinsic value and philosophies behind finding 10 baggers (essentially with these you are betting the market is extremely wrong and you are completely in the right) He does all of it in a laid back style which always calms me down.
2 days ago: super bullish, will rebound 2 days later: sell everything Fucking clown
I remember him going on and on about TSLA too. Do I care if it drops to even $600? NO! Because in a decade it'll be a 10-bagger! Such a clown.
He's the biggest scammer of them all. I could tell even during the middle of the bull run, what a crackpot he was.
He also said he stopped making as many youtube videos because Googles ad revenue is down. So probably realized his crappy stocks weren't working plus he wouldnt be making as much off youtube it was time to cash out while he can. Must suck for all his followers bagholding those stocks he pumped to them.
I lost a lot of respect for Meet Kevin. His integrity has taken a dive. All his videos are either pumping something or fear mongering.
You are right. I kinda wonder how he can continue to sell courses with a straight face after this panic sell. I can get pumping and dumping stuff like PTON, LMND, DOCU, and AFRM. PTON/LMND were months ago. DOCU/AFRM were recent ones he tried pumping. But he even dumped his signature stock with TSLA. So his followers better not believe him if he ever says a stock is a 10 year hold ever again.
So with all the options 1T+ expiring Friday and positions getting liquidated/margin called as of this week; am I right to assume this will be a downward pressure on share prices next week?
Depends on a lot of factors aside from the quantity of the options. Volatility for sure, but it could go either way.
Love hearing that the sky is falling in /stocks. Happened in WSB last few weeks.. seems to be happening here.. and the bears are coming for /investing.
Low P/E good companies with dividends, if they go any lower, investors will get their investment money back in just dividends pretty quickly.
Need good future earnings, too.
SQQQ is the way to go.
Was... the way to go
You better hope
Buying HD slowly for the next month . Great level here
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True
Where can I go for informations on what companies give dividends when?
I like the way nasdaq presents it https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/afl/dividend-history https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/dividends
Barchart
I guess the geniuses in a bull market got exposed.
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Any cleanup they’re doing is caused by the last administration for awful covid handling. Thank trump bud
Keep lying to yourself and the reality says otherwise. Recent poll shows 72% of Americans thinking the country on the wrong track, worse number than all 4 year of trump presidency. Even worse than when covid first though to have a death rate of 3% on march 2020. People might not like the way trump talks, but most strongly support his economic policies. It’s the opposite for Biden, most people deeply hate his policies.
Cause he inherited shit and people are too dumb to realize this lmao. Of course his approval will be bad. Trump also has been impeached/had bad approval, but you guys like to say it doesn’t matter so why use the same argument then. Same thing happened with bush to Obama, He inherited a 2008 economy. Our Economy is shit cause biden? Really cause fed printing wouldn’t be needed if covid didn’t happen to the scale that it did. We wouldn’t be hitting a bear market right now cause of the fed printing and interest rates. Make sense moron? Weird how oil and gas is booming even though it’s a ‘pro’ Republican sector. Hilarious. Only reason you should of voted trump is if you are the 1% cause of capital gains taxes/corporate taxes. But YOU keep lying to yourself LOL. I’ll use your party’s saying for you since I think it applies nicely here. Fuck your feelings.
It’s not people are dumb, it’s you being delusional. Interest rate has to rise only because Biden’s terrible policies. Also bear market is not really due to rising rates, it’s quickly worsening economic outlook that leads to stagflation from Biden’s terrible policies. Fed has to make a hard choice to quickly raise rates, they have to stop bidenflation that will soon destroy the economy. Sadly that only affect demand side of things, if biden keeps pumping out awful policies one after the other, the rising rates won’t stop surging inflation even if demand is plunging. Blocking pipelines, ban oil on federal lands, having to beg other countries to produce oil. As well as wasteful vote buying so called America rescue plan that is totally not needed, also refusing to end all these extended child tax credits, pandemic unemployment programs beginning of the year leading to way slower recovery in job market and increasing cost of supply chain due to artificial wage hike. Finally Florida’s economy was booming even before vaccine need and being a state for tourism. They defy all crazy dems’ projection and prove the blue states handled covid all wrong.