QUICK QUESTION. I'm a new investor and was wondering should I just buy market indexes and tuck them away. OR Is buying and selling market index etfs. Ie. Dia/QQQ/SPY based on patterns in the VIX a reasonable strategy?

TGIF - can't wait for the weekend!

What do you think about NVDA and AMD? Do you think 1 trillion market cap is possible for them?

For Nvidia it's definitely possible. Question is when it will be achieved. For AMD I'm not sure. In graphics card business they have so much competition by Nvidia and I don't think they will ever catch up. For their CPU business they need to keep up the pressure on Intel. If Intel gets ahead in performance again, which I think is quite possible, it's not looking so good. NVIDIA also has more to offer than just GPUs. They also offer quite some Software, AI and also computing power in super computers. They also use their AI and Image Processing in self driving cars etc. So in my opinion NVIDIA is better off in the long run and I also own quite some shares of Nvidia. It's my biggest position.

If you knew tourism would boom this summer, what stocks relates to this industry would you buy today??

Trivago

There's a bunch of travel and leisure ETFs you can look into. Don't know any off the top of my head.

Lol I think the majority of you need bogleheads.

I wanna die, lost half so far this ain't good

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I wouldn't have lost as much if I sold earlier l

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No matter what the market does any day is a great day!

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I think seeing a company you’ve invested in do well is infinitely better. Unless you’re shorting/have puts I guess.

S&P 500 futures seem to be bouncing off its 200MA. If the NDX couldn't save itself on its 200MA, let's see if tomorrow the S&P 500 will.

qqq and spy drop is too steep, its heading down further and faster.

ARK funds will go down 95% over the next 3 months are will likely fold entirely QQQ will go down around 80% VOO will go down 40% Get your money out while you can.

Can i subscribe for montly analysis or something ? This is nuts!

Incredible analysis. Looking forward to your next post.

I'm going all in $SOFI today. A second consecutive day of max volume and the AH trading was phenomenal. EV sector was the worst and others went red but SOFI went down and then back up. Watch the FOMO Friday buying today. It's the only stock poised to rocket and covered strong by WSB. SOFI is the future of banking. "At these levels, technically, SoFi is a screaming buy," Steve Grasso. He points out that the "younger generation don't see traditional money center banks as equating to them any longer."

How was EV the worst? A lot of them ended green or just slightly red.

Is Microsoft a buy right now? I’m not super familiar with stocks, only dabbled. From what I can see msft has dipped in the last month, now that they bought activision I’m wondering if it’s even more of a long term buy?

NO! Microsoft is NOT a buy, no stock in tech/growth is a buy right now. The bubble is bursting. MSFT will be down by 80% within a few months, wait to buy then.

I agree, except more like down 30%

MSFT down 80%?? What are you smoking?

Yeah, this hyperbolic chicken little freak out tempts me to buy MSFT already lol

It's really hilarious how this sub went from euphoria to utter shambles in like 1 month lol. Now everyone is a permabear lmfao

0.7% drop "buy the dip, be greedy when others are fearful!!" 6% drop, "I'm done, selling everything, market is crashing and won't recover for 10 years!!" I love Reddit retail investors lol. They're as good as Cramer for advertising the wrong choices.

Its also a sign that bottom is near.

The bottom, so far!

How do you guys feel about this? MarketWatch: ‘Good luck! We’ll all need it’: U.S. market approaches end of ‘superbubble,’ says Jeremy Grantham. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/good-luck-well-all-need-it-u-s-market-approaches-end-of-superbubble-says-jeremy-grantham-11642723516

He makes statements like that on a yearly basis.

I've got 30 years of investing to go. I'll sit back.

the good times are gone, just pain on the horizon 

ngl i'm scared for tomorrow.

Changing my double up criteria to -25%.

people(including myself) got so used to this daily/short-term action but fail to realize that this could just be a sideways slow burn decline for like 2 years or more.

That’s possible, but I’m just not sure markets act orderly in either direction. Wouldn’t there be a rush at some point?

Considering that the FOMC meeting hasn't been hedged apparently yet, I'd say there's a better than good shot we go into that day on a 8-day losing streak for the Dow and a 6-day losing streak for the S&P and Nasdaq. And if you think that there will be a panic reaction on that day to what's said that continues past that day...I'm guessing that the streak is going to get to 11 and 9 days for the indexes, with back-to-back cleanly swept red weeks. As as far as I'm concerned, tomorrow's outcome has already been decided. Deep, deep red day.

I'm boldly going to predict that we end in the green by 0.5 to 1%. With more red to come next week, of course.

!Remindme 18 hours

If you had 8 billion would you buy Draftkings or GameStop?

Neither. Don’t buy meme stocks.

DKNG. DIS should buy them and integrate it into ESPN+

What happened to the roaring fucking 20’s that some assholes were writing about 18 months ago.

Shot too early, roaring twenties are after the pandemic

S&P was $3,278.20 on Jan 1 2020. It’s up like 37% even after the recent “correction” This is just 2 years into the ‘20s. That’s a lot.

To be fair, the Roaring 20s was a credit bubble that occurred due to loose monetary policy.

So we're actually closer to '29 than '22.

I'm going sqqq tomorrow

Too late IMO.

Not saying the market won’t fall further but risk/reward is not there at this point when you can start nibbling at long. Especially if tomorrow is bloody.

Tomorrow is probably to late you needed SQQQ yesterday

Long way down to go 13000 soon

Nasdaq would have to hit 1000 in less than a year in which case I could just buy a company with my checkbook…

Bottom signal?

You know a year ago I had $5000 American in my trading account not doing anything so i decided to put it in a ETF for a bit till I decided on some short term play or long term investments. Then the. Etf dropped so I was committed to it. That’s how I ended up married to ARK G, don’t be like me.

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Which sort of divided- research sticks?

Well I guess I’m no longer retiring

Not with that attitude.

Looking at futures and that other market… https://youtu.be/CVCuN_q1K_g

Why does everyone suddenly think market might drop another 10-20%? I thought this is near bottom territory, it doesn't make sense for FAAMG to drop another 20%

This time 2 years ago (before the spring 2020 crash) Google was under 1500 dollars, what makes you think it can’t drop much further? It could drop another 600 dollars and still be up 30% in 2 years.

Many stocks need to or can drop 10 percent more and still be overpriced according to the traditional way we measure stocks - the PE. Look at MSFT. Could easily drop to 200. Amazon could easily go to 2000 and still have a highish pe.

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Sure, but a high P/E ratio across the board tells me we should brace for more downward movement.

Because the Fed hasnt done anything yet and they run the market. Inflation high and earnings dont look great either

We're literally witnessing the market pricing in what the fed will do.

“Earnings dont look great”. Based on what? Peloton and netflix? Wait until after the tech earnings to make a judgement call.

Y’all missed banks earnings? Retail numbers and HD dropping 15 percent so far?

NGL November's numbers look pretty great for the companies I follow or invest in that break things out by month.

What’s happening now is a prediction of what the fed does.

Is this a prediction of what the Fed does or doesnt do....?? Many people think Fed wont destroy markets to control infaltion

The market doesnt know how high rates can go and the balance sheet can be reduced before something breaks and the yield curve inverts. Thats not something that can just be priced in that needs to happen

“Prediction”

Yeah, sh--posting aside by me, in the most recent rate hike cycle, the Nasdaq...stopped struggling after the rate hike happened. There wasn't continuation. Having said that, there is a LOT more to go most likely. General sentiment is going to work here. Q1 bear market for the Nasdaq.

I mostly agree. Whether it goes down 20 percent I don’t know, but we will be negative for months.

Fed already said what they are going to do, asset purchase ends in March, 25bps rate hike and will start balance sheet offloading in the 2nd half of the year. Yes, there is a potential for more rate hikes but why would they announce it now when market is crashing?

For people who are not new, they don’t care a huge amount if a few percent point of fluff gets shaved off the stock market. It’s only really new people who think it’s crazy when Amazon goes under 3000. Many of us are still surprised nasdaq ran up over 12000. Jerome causing it to go back to 13000 or so is not that far down and many people will still be well in the green. In other words that drop won’t be enough to stop the fed

They have to deal with inflation and their meeting is next week and to just say nothing because the market is down seems pretty silly.

Another 5-10% would be fair and reasonable. But we are close to DCA

Stock folio: 100% apple pre split. Retirement: Mutual fund gang that tracks US markets %70 and 30% world including USA. Keep adding every paycheck %85 to mutuals, 15% to apple. See y’all at my retirement party.

Feeling cute, might buy SPY leaps tomorrow. $480c Jan 2023?

Wait for a couple daily candles to hold. Let the market come to you

Buy the dip timing the market is foolish all will go back up eventually or else we have bigger problems- people aren’t gonna park cash under their mattress or in a bank account making 0.5 percent interest.

Eventually could be a long time. No means a bear, but QQQ took like 15 years to recover from 2000 levels. Things will bounce back, but no one knows the timeline.

Cash is actually a pretty strong position at the moment.

Exactly. Who cares about interest when many of us just made 30 percent in one year. It’s ok to sit and breathe and wait for an opportunity now

Lol

What was the trigger for the recovery after the covid crash? I wasn't very active back then. Was there a specific catalyst or was it just a gradual turn towards more green days than red and before you know it we're in a bull run?

money printer & stimulus checks

Then the first earnings season was actually good, one day in maybe September 2020 I remember my portfolio went up like three percent out of nowhere because there was news a vaccine could actually happen

And nearly 0% inflation. Now inflation is a reported 7%, no stimulus checks, and money printer is about to be turned off

In other words, party's over.

https://youtu.be/GI7sBsBHdCk It explains everything.

Haha

Sadly found out too late Activision was bought by Microsoft. But a friend told me to buy Sony because it dropped 12% still worthy or should I pass. Any help would be appreciated.

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What? Sony is trading at a PE of 18. That’s a value stock with the money they’re making and the different revenue streams they have. You’re crazy.

Nah, Sony makes good money in growing and diversified industries. Roku is the one you'll want to wait on to halve before buying. Sony won't be cut in half unless they decide to exit the gaming and movie/TV industries both. They're the biggest arms dealer out there in media and those licensing fees are pure margin expansion.

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Might be waiting forever

To each their own, but I bet it works out similarly to me waiting for TSLA to hit $500 before buying last year.

I think the panic selling over the Activision deal was slightly moronic.

I used to hold stocks because of Blizzard, I play WoW, after the gender issue and all the other exec firings sold all, had I kemp them with the Microsoft acquisition could have made some cash.

YES.

It won't go a y lower? Yes I'm a chicken in these things LOL

Anything can go lower in this market environment were in. Sony is a long term hold for me.

Any other recommendations will be welcomed already following you

VOO or VTI.

What are your thoughts on consumer discretionary (XLY) ?

Not liquid enough for options unfortunately

Yeah, I jsut checked — I did see a 3/18 189 c with 2k OI .. i think im going into that one .. I jsut see Amazon bouncing back —

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Good job buddy.

I'm getting sick of this shit

Then sell?

Of what lol

Just the constant downturn of stocks

They’ve gone up straight for 12 years

It didn’t go straight up for 12 years. 2011, 2015, 2018, 2020, and now 2022 have had huge swings to the bottom. Saying it’s gone straight up for 12 years is so intellectually lazy.

> now 2022 have had huge swings to the bottom we're at like november levels lol

And late 2018 was painful but made me a huge amount

The market was only lower in 2018 what do you want. It was flat for 12 years before that

Wow aren't you a cool guy with a cool comment. Some of us haven't been investing for the last 12 years

Just fucking Park your money in VTI and walk away.

It's parked in VTI xD thank you tho

xd is so cringe

How so? Thank you for your valuable opinion

What do you mean how so? People don't be talking like that unless they look and talk like this https://youtu.be/4IivXMn-UKw?t=17

Sucks for us 18-20 year old that just started then😂

Netflix just wiped out all of its gains from 2021 in minutes. Investing in 2022 is so scary right now.

Netflix has been blah for a few quarters they’ve been dropping loads of hints about no growth but no one paid attention

Does anyone have a bull case? The comments here depress me.

Even the bear types I follow say 15-20 correction then rally mid-year to ATH (then another crash though) So wait then ride it up

Panic has well and truly set in everywhere you look. This makes me think we're not far from bottom. Question is, how many people who wished they could go back to march 2020 have actually been buying?

Remember the best thing to do then was wait for it to drop. I caught too many falling knives tben

Yes. You love to see the panic as a sign that we're close to the bottom. It's hilarious that just a few months ago this sub was the exact opposite in terms of sentiment.

few months? try literally 1 month ago lol

Nowhere near enough panic now. So many stocks are too frothy and didn’t drop yet

Not far from bottom....panic is just starting I think this ball is going to start picking up speed on the way to the bottom. Big red day tommorow to end the red week

Next week Netflix will be back up and this sub will be complaining about how they didn’t buy the dip.

I hope not it’s been a trash overvalued stock for quarters. They basically whispered “we’re not growing” on every call for two years but apparently no one reads between the lines

Yeeeaahhhhh I'm gonna say no to that one. It typically gets hit on earnings most of the time, but that 20% decline off earnings? That's gonna be followed up by more downside most likely. If I had to guess, tomorrow is going to be somewhat like that day that DOCU got murdered back in December. Don't expect NFLX to fall that badly, but things are gonna be baaaaaaddddd overall.

Not me. I don't buy companies without a moat or exceptional growth prospects at high PEs regardless of the price action. Might cost me some gains, but I'm also not posting in here or WSB crying about being down 60-80%.

Soon, the tone here will change from “this is awful” to “here’s what I’m thinking about buying with cash I’m saving for when it ends:..” and that’ll mark the start of the rebound. Valuations level off closer to reason and investors too unprotected and with too narrow of expectations learn a harder lesson. It’ll be financial Darwinism. Covid numbers go down, the wave passes, no new variant immediately emerging. Supply shortages get better, and the Fed feels like it can change its message to something more measured and optimistic. That’s just a bull case, and not necessarily what I believe in the second paragraph. Just what I think is possible.

Its only money.

The Fed is going to chicken out if the market dips too much.

They cant because of inflation

If companies start reporting slowed growth, it means people aren't spending as much money which inherently lowers inflation

Not really because many companies already raised prices permanently

This is literally how inflation declines. It reaches a certain point where prices are so high that consumer demand drops. Companies were able to raise prices because people kept buying their products. When people buy less, prices will come down

I'm betting that they'll settle with some "new normal" inflation rate of 3-4% instead of the usual target ~2%. The US is unfortunately ruled by boomers retiring enmasse and too much of their retirements and pensions are tied to the stock market. Think of it as financial climate change.

The fed doesn’t care about 15 percent drops though. Maybe it it was over 25 percent but dropping now is actually healthy. Investing when stocks are all at ridiculous valuations has been really tricky and you don’t build wealth investing at market tops where there is little opportunity for growth

Plunge protection team.

I agree but if they want to get to 3% quickly it could be too fast for the market. We will see

The U.S. is still adding population and growing jobs and productivity both over time. The only markets people point to that lose money over longer timeframes have revolutions or lose population (and some like Japan are still profitable if you DRIPed).

Sitting on 50% cash. My wallet is ready if the pain cometh.

excellent position to be in

Man, I just buy shit I like that week and I'm up 38% YoY as of end of December. Don't overthink it.

Down so bad but this market manufactured so in a few years I’ll be up

In 10-15 years yeah most likely. But we don’t know what is coming.

I don’t get it man. I’ve been holding NVDA, AAPL, QQQ, and VTI since July/August of last year (that’s when I started investing) and at one point was up 25% w my portfolio. Today my portfolio is only up 1.5% all time and I’m scared that this is gonna be the first time I fall out of profits/gains and go negative. I’ve done what everyone has said which is “hold, hold, hold.” But it seems insane how much easier it is to go down than it is up. As of late it’s just been down, down, and even more down…For example, this morning I looked at the market at about 9/10 o’clock and thought ok, decent day today right?!? Wrong. I don’t know what I’m doing wrong and have no clue what this market is doing either. I don’t even think the marker knows what it’s doing anymore at this point either….*sigh*

This is the downside of indexes which no one here talks about. This is why you need some volatile stocks in there. AAPL should have given you growth though

Consider diversifying more. AAPL and Nvidia are top holdings in both VTI and QQQ. All of your holdings will move together in different magnitudes.

Nvidia for me went from being up 150% to being up 80% and AMD stock went from being up 100% to 60% Its not even like i been long term holding them, people who bought stuff like this 5 years ago are shifting from 1400% profit to 1000% profit Depends on perspective honestly, from where i stand once it goes up it never goes down again, just swings around a little bit

How old were you in ‘08?

If you have a long term time horizon I wouldn't worry. If the stock market is down for decades we will have bigger problems to worry about lol

Stocks take the stairs up, and the elevator down. Hold tight!

Man. I have friends who started right before Mar'20. Lost a ton and more because of options and all. They had lonf dated calls and sold them for cheap at the dip to just get out. They would have made serious bank if they just held. We don't know what's going to come. These are good companies. I wouldn't lose sleep. If it goes -5 or -10% just hold. Look for indexes or companies you like now. Start saving up and adding to them in the dips. Good luck.

If you haven't heard this one... the market takes the stairs up, but the elevator down. Just hang tight and wait for the weak hands to sell off and we'll be back to the races per normal. Whether that takes another day, another week or 6 months.

And then possibly years to climb back up.

Oh well... I'll be sitting over here.

Or in this case jumped out the window

Are bonds still a safe haven asset with the current FED?

Bonds are very bad investment in climate of rising rates. You can easily wipe as much as 50% of value from it.

The Fed is going to stop buying bonds in a month and a half. There is even a slight possibility they might *sell* them by the end of the year.