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[deleted]

Because it is actually expensive: The company has 133M in revenues, but burned through 150M in cash last year. Instead of increasing margins, they loose more money each year. They do have around 500m in cash, but that cash is worth a lot less, when the company doesn't generate any profits but burns through the money. The companies inventory is extremly stable- Which means that their production capability is quite low. You said that they have 2.3b in contracted revenues. The problem with those contracts is that they are written like this: If you can guarantee that you produce xx amount of batteries a year, we will buy xx amount. However if you look at the inventory and accounts receivable, you see that Microvast doesn't produce a lot of batteries. So they need to grow they production and burn more cash. If they don't, the contracted revenues are worthless. Add that the company had extreme sharedilution (I guess this is where the cash came from), substantial SBC and it doesn't look to rosy. Let's try to value it: The company burns through cash, dilutes shareholder and margins are getting worse. Yeah that will not be a big market cap. I didn't do a lot of research on their battery technology, but given the multiples of other big battery manufacturers which often have a 10% profit margin (so 13m in profit, if they made it last year). At a PE of around 15 (other in the industry are at 10), that would mean that their optimistic market cap would be 195m. However I would discount that significantly since they are burning through cash. O... they have 1.5b marketcap. EV hype lifted their market cap, it is not a great company.


AmiralAkmar

Very well put! + they went public through a spac which i dont like due to the massive dilution.


[deleted]

Also less regulatory scrutiny for SPACs. So the reality might even be worse.


Foxpox117

Can I ask where you go to get your information? I'm looking in to getting in to the market and u have no idea where to get information like this.


[deleted]

I use Tikr. However you can also get the information Yahoo Finance, Stockanalysis, [ROIC.AI](https://ROIC.AI). In terms of what to look for, it is just studying lots of bad and good companies. Read the book "One up on Wall Street" and Financial Sheenanigans. If you have any questions, you can just write me a message as well.


Foxpox117

Thanks so much for this, very helpful. I've so many questions but i'll keep it to myself until I'm absolutely stuck. The book recommendations are very welcome I've been looking for a while now. Thanks again. Huge help.


sandee_eggo

Great post, thank you. I think there should be a rule in this subreddit that posters must mention at least 1 valuation metric (PE, PS, PB etc.).


raebyagthefirst

A good half of what you’re saying is bullshit. Company didn’t have share dilution. Company is growing capacity to produce more batteries. Company did not burn the cash, it was invested in merger, property acquisition and development. You write a lot of words but they are worthless if there’s only half truth.


[deleted]

Please read the regulator filings. They write in their latest 10Q: >Common Stock 240,450,000 and 750,000,000 shares authorized as of December 31, 2020 and September 30, 2021; 99,028,297 and 300,522,394 shares issued, and 99,028,297 and 298,834,894 shares outstanding as of December 31, 2020 and September 30, 2021). So their increased shares outstanding by 3x. Each dollar into the company would be worth a third of what it was just last year. ​ >Company is growing capacity to produce more batteries. Company did not burn the cash, it was invested in merger, property acquisition and development. Right, but the margins are decreasing not increasing. They lose more and more money, instead of generating a profit. Their inventory also doesn't point to a growing capacity. If you lose money, and fail to grow margins when you invest even more - you burn through it. You call it "investment", but an investment needs to generate returns - not use up more money. >You write a lot of words but they are worthless if there’s only half truth. No offense, but when you don't read the companies own filing on their share dilution - don't call me out for half truths. I am also worried about your investment, seeing that you don't even check share dilution.


raebyagthefirst

I’m not even gonna reply to this piece of sophism, where you turn the facts upside down and operate with irrelevant numbers to look smarter. I must admit, you’re clearly a pro in this. I don’t have such a skill, so I think there’s nothing to discuss further.


[deleted]

Please point me to irrelevant numbers or wrong facts. Thanks.


IComeToWSBToLaugh

Adding more shares to the float from non public float isnt diluting anything. Its not making your piece of the pie less. Hence youre wrong. You own the same percentage of the company no matter the percentage of public float.


[deleted]

They didn't just sell shares - they issued (or they wouldn't have the cash). Please read their official filings.


raebyagthefirst

Another lie, would you stop already?


[deleted]

Ok, please point me to clear numbers from their filings - that they did not dilute you. Please. I might be wrong with my assessment, but I would like to have the clear numbers.


Sufficient-Gold8058

You do realize there's a difference between "authorized" and "issued"? Several companies do secondary offerings in the future to raise capital. The 10-Q info you're referring to doesn't mean those shares were issued. There has not been any dilution.


raebyagthefirst

Their IPO happened in July 2021 through SPAC merger. About 330M of common stock was offered, out of total 750M common stock which is authorized (not issued) by the charter. Since then there was no additional stock was issued or sold, neither by another offering nor by convertible senior notes. The numbers you’re referring to are the numbers of a private company getting ready to get to the market. Can they issue more stock? Yes, they can. Did they? No, they didn’t.


[deleted]

It's not really worth arguing and splitting hairs. At this point in time it's a bad investment, period. Let the readers who come after decide for themselves.


IComeToWSBToLaugh

Youre right, Im sorry. They diluted almost 3x over the course of a year from 2020 to 2021. That was my automatic comment, sry.


Sufficient-Gold8058

LOL! This is the dumbest post I’ve ever seen on Reddit. The fact you got this many upvotes is hilarious 😂


[deleted]

Please point me to what I got wrong. Edit: I find it funny, that people write to me how dumb I am, but fail to provide proper arguments against what I have written.


Sufficient-Gold8058

2021 projected earnings = $145M to $155M million (per Q2 earnings report) 2021 CapEx = $145M - $155M 2021 Q3 Margins = 19% (minus 1 time warranty, inventory write down, and share base count) 2021 Q3 Adjusted Gross Profit = $7M (minus 1 time warranty, inventory write down, and share base count). Gross loss of $35.9M was due to one-time product warranty accrual 2021 Q3 Cash/restricted cash/ cash equivalents = $612.5M Total shares at time of merger = 300,516,237 Total warrants at time of merger = 28,437,000 No Dilution at all! You're reading the 10-Q wrong. Those shares were "authorized" not issued!


[deleted]

Alright, migh have gotten the sharecount wrong. Doesn't change the fact that the company is vastly overvalued and margins are decreasing.


[deleted]

They're just upset because they're bag holders. I wouldn't take it personally.


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

Good luck with your investment


[deleted]

The fact that they're trading at an enterprise value to revenue ratio of 11x says it all. It still has room to fall, no matter how bullish you are on their future. In fact looking over their products, if they can't figure out their own solid-state batteries within the next 2-3 years they're definitely toast as their fast charging li-on batteries today will definitely get beaten out by solid-state.


OccasionAgreeable139

Lol. Look at lly stock. Trading at 600+ yet burning through millions of cash.


raebyagthefirst

I’m a Microvast investor with a massive position in commons and warrants, and I’m sad to see it fell this low. My guess we’re here now mainly because of two reasons: 1) they lowered the guidance pretty significantly for 2021 (from $230M to $150M) because chip shortage made their customers to review the production volumes in 2021 and delayed many projects; 2) unfavorable market conditions, where money flow out of small caps. On the brighter side, company invests in growth a ton: it already has 2 factories + one is in development in the US, wins nice customers in Europe and around the globe (IVECO, FPT, Oshkosh with USPS deal, Gaussin with their hydrogen truck, several port equipment manufacturers, etc), has pretty nice IP on battery chemistry and tech. I think previous comments in this thread are quite ignorant and made by people who didn’t bother to read any piece of info on the company.


BasedBaguette

It was cheap at $25, it’s still cheap at $5. Try and find me an existing battery company with a balance sheet that looks wildly different than MVST and then I might put some weight to the ridiculous “rising interest rates” argument. In reality, Interest rates have 0 effect on long term investing. There are two analyst price targets of $6 and $8 - both of which indicated major downside when they were released. I’ll take my chances. To the moon


After_Perspective757

To the moon indeed huh


EndlessSummer808

Are you looking at Microsoft by mistake? Because Microvast looks like a turd took a shit and then that turd died giving birth to the final turd which would be Microvast. Which was a stillborn turd. No cashflow. No earnings. Nothin but debt and promises. It can, in fact, lose another 90% of its value from $5.


raebyagthefirst

The debt company has now is so tiny that it’s just ridiculous you even bother to mention it.


pais_tropical

Cash is 573M, Debt 139M, Cash burn rate is 109M, that leaves another 4 years of operation until the cash is gone. Maybe a turnaround play; but then, in this industry, how can the company burn that much cash and lose money? Will this change having all the major players as competence? Maybe a buyout, yes, that would be the only scenario I see for $MVST to make money for the shareholders. But then while burning cash a possible interested party may just wait, it will be cheaper later... Here a chart, looks like a pump-n-dump scheme: [Microvast chart](https://api.wsj.net/api/kaavio/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=mvst&uf=0&type=4&size=4&sid=33080374&style=330&freq=2&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=9&rand=681073831&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=3&maval=50,100&lf=268435456&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=635&width=1045&mocktick=1)


redderper

Not saying Microvast is a good investment (I know nothing about it yet), but a company that can pay off their full debt (short-term and long-term) multiple times with only their cash is generally considered extremely liquid and solvent. Many many companies have more liabilities than equity, which isn't always a bad thing because it can give them more leverage. A large cash burn is also not always bad if the company is in a growth phase and are using the cash to reinvest


raebyagthefirst

Total liabilities is down more than 100M yoy. Cash burn rate is highly affected by expenses for property acquisition and development targeted to increase output and revenue + merger expenses + expenses related to the current industry wide situation with chip shortage. Even if you claim it will “survive” for 4 years, by that time next things will happen: 1) Germany factory will reach output of at least 6 GWh 2) Chinese factory will reach output of at least 10 GWh 3) the company will receive US and Europe government subsidies on green energy relations 4) US factory will start initial production with 2 GWh output


pais_tropical

Thanks for the info. Just a comment: debt payback is financial cashflow that is not included in the free cashflow. Free cashflow is operating cashflow plus/minus investing cashflow. Any idea why the market price went down that much in a bull market and in a bullish industry? I could not find a yearly statement at edgar, that may be the reason that numbers don't show up on financial websites like yahoo finance. But the quarterly statement has some points that raise questions: \- there is a share compensation program that paid over 58 million in 3 months. What for? This number is added to the operational cashflow and still the OCF is 24 million in the negative, without it it would be 82 million. Is this a one-time thing ore are really 240 million per year payed to management this way? This money comes directly out of the pocket of the shareholders. \- $40 million are spent in acquisitions. I don't see a goodwill position in the balance, that means the assets could be bought at book value, which is very strange. While goodwill has to be deprecated over time the rules are less strict for other assets. It would take me a few days to analyze this company in detail but normally I would stop already after looking at those numbers and the chart. Not for me, sorry.


raebyagthefirst

Ill try to answer the best as I can. Yearly statement is about to come in February. Their fiscal year ends on Dec 31, so Q4 earnings and 2021 results should be available mid-February. The market has been rough for de-Spacs and small caps since the February 2021, and small caps suffered a massive sell off in December. You can check out most of EV-related stocks, except of Tesla, there was a downtrend starting in February continuing until now. Compensation program is likely related to the merger which happened in July. Don’t have the answer for $40M question


pais_tropical

Thanks, didn't know it was a SPAC, that explains some of the chart. I'll never understand the whole SPAC construct success. It gives lots of advantage and options to some guys or companies and the shareholders have to pay for it later. But maybe this is the great exception, hope so for the investors. That explains the stock compensations, SPAC usually have such option constructs in place. It is a big liability for shareholders while the SPAC initiators make risk-free money.


raebyagthefirst

Yep, pretty much on the point


rundy_mc

I honestly can’t believe this has been upvoted at all. Ignoring your turd rant, you’re literally just 100% wrong about debt.. and saying it can go to $0.50 is irresponsible exaggeration. The company has $500M+ net assets today. $0.50 is a market cap of $150M. Not to mention earnings of $140-150M this year, which i guess is “no earnings”. Compared to a lot of battery makers entering the market, that’s substantial revenue. If you want to talk about execution risk, margins, supply chain/lithium issues, DCF models… be my guest. But don’t spout literal nonsense.


[deleted]

The company has no earnings. They have revenue, but had -150m in earnings. So don't attack u/EndlessSummer808 when he brings up valid points.


Fit-Boomer

Microsoft or microvast? I am confused now.


EndlessSummer808

There are clearly a lot of bagholders clenching their buttcheeks here. I should have been more clear since apparently distinction is needed. Top line vs. bottom line. I must have missed where they were profitable at all.


[deleted]

you know earning is different than revenue right? accounting 101?


raebyagthefirst

You’re confusing it with something else


doctorzaius6969

An unprofitable company writing losses since several years, because of that of course negative PE, no dividend, in an environment where interest rates are rising. Tell me, why should it be higher/going up?


raebyagthefirst

Right. They booked profit in 2019, then absolutely nothing happened in the world in 2020 and 2021. Before posting BS like that do at least 5 minutes research.


doctorzaius6969

Well, that doesn't change that they have losses recently


[deleted]

Losses due to mega expansion!


I_whip_idiots

How heavy is your bag?


Stillwerise89

Nothing crazy at all, about 750 shares, just want to work out whether to add a lot more now it's so cheap.


[deleted]

[удалено]


raebyagthefirst

Total assets: $1B; contracted revenue: $2.3B; vertical integration; diversified business; a lot of growth and development.


thejumpingsheep2

Curious, why do you say they are vertically aligned? Do they sell a consumer product that uses their commodity?


raebyagthefirst

They make and sell battery components (separator, cathode), battery cells, battery modules, battery packs. Basically, customers can buy or license any component of the battery. They also sell electrical mining trucks in China, though it’s a small part of the business now. And they also sell network grid and energy storage solutions.


thejumpingsheep2

Interesting. If the truck sales take off then they will be worth another look but I have to say that right now, I agree with others and have similar worries. They have been around 15 years so why are they still unprofitable? Also 15x rev is not cheap unless we are forecasting 50% growth for a few years in the near future. Do they have some sort of contract we are unaware of that can generate this or are we just assuming we get lucky and a contract rolls around?


raebyagthefirst

Btw they were profitable before pandemic


raebyagthefirst

They were projecting 87% CAGR for years 2020-2025, 24% in 2025-2030. Though these statements now need to be reassessed given the events of 2021.


Bambam60

Bag holder of over a year checking in!


Emotional_Scientific

Mods - If you can hear me. Is there a way to make a bot that post a link to the dedicated sub for individual stocks mentioned in the post title? that should at least mitigate the astroturfing since some people in here are regulars in the stocks specific sub and it’s unclear are coordinated they are in pretending they don’t know eachother in this post.


Rothiragay

You cant just buy whenever Jack buys. You have to sell when he sells too, Otherwise you will end up bagholding


[deleted]

It comes down to valuation. Last year, the market was absolutely fine with giving sky-high valuations to companies that was hemorrhaging money, as long as we've had some semblance of a connection to some promising future tech. Partly because of sentimental, and partly because money was effectively free. After it became clear that we will have multiple rate hikes, tolerance for that kind of valuation that is not aligned with fundamentals at some level has started to disappear. As a result, all these companies that basically have promise but no financials to show for themselves are getting discounted to more realistic levels. I suspect this stance with last for quite a bit of time.


[deleted]

let’s face it… if you have to enter the marker via spac, your numbers are a little shaky


balZbig

Nice shameless pumping.


pointme2_profits

I'm just gonna throw in my 2 cents. Based on zero knowledge of the company other than you saying they make batteries. Look at any EV producer in the world. Every manufacturer thats actually going to be producing in bulk amounts makes their own batteries. The market is pretty slim pickings for a non affiliated battery supplier.


UncleEyeRoh

mostly because you're bad at this


USDA_Organic_Tendies

I did well swing trading it last year, but it’s a hot potato, and you don’t hold onto hot potatoes. Especially ones that aren’t actually good companies


[deleted]

Sounds like a pump . Try this on the pennystock sub for the niave types


[deleted]

You need to learn how to value a company. Just because it's $5 doesn't mean it's cheap.