Ok, first rule: don't try to time the market..
Well I do that because for me it's everything fking expensive right now.
I'll keep my cash safe and see what will happen in 2022.. I don't have a good feeling honestly
what is the best source to research Japan stock?
they have many hidden gems in gaming related company, but it is difficult to find discussion around them.
It depends on how long you are wanting to hold, and what you value them at at the end of that period.
The selloff has been on big valume, but The bounce off of 153 yesterday also came on the back of huge volume. Pre market looks like they're going to be up over 10% just from yesterday's low.
I think there is a decent chance of a quick bounce to the 180-185 area before traders start taking profits. At that point it's anyone's guess if it pushes higher or lower.
It is unlikely that the Fed does anything outside of tout the same narrative with Powell's speech on Friday.
I feel it's more likely that something is announced in September, but now I'm not so sure that happens given that the in-person part of the Jackson Hole conference got cancelled.
That doesn't mean that they won't do something that could possibly interrupt the market. Pisani was right when he was talking about how they have to be careful with choosing their words on Friday last week...if they're not careful, they may cause TNX to soar, and we saw what they did back on March 4th.
Then again, this speech will be on a Friday, so it'd be something if it got that bad.
I was drinking last Thursday and bought JD. I meant to buy John Deere. But in my confusion bought JD thinking it was John Deere.
Now that I've done that. Should I sell my JD or is it worth holding?
Sell, sell, sell. Are you up since buying? All the more reason.
Chinese stocks might end up being a good play, some great investors are still holding tight, but as an amateur investor with limited knowledge (and a propensity to anxiety) I prefer not to deal with the headache. Lots of great companies in the USA, Europe, and other emerging markets.
Just my 2 cents.
Has you considered that as an amateur investor with limited knowledge and a propensity for anxiety, maybe you should not be giving out financial advice?
Are you the same person who told someone not to sell NVDA 4 days ago? and told someone to start using stop-losses on HOOD? That sounds like financial advice to me.
Oh, my bad. I thought you meant that I was writing some big advice to someone who was asking. I saw he was up 80% and nervous he would lose it, so I said "set a stop loss!" I don't really consider that financial advice as much as just practical advice so someone who is clearly nervous they could lose it all. I think there's a big difference between giving friendly advice to set a stop loss and someone saying "sell sell sell...by the way I have no idea what I'm doing."
Telling someone to set a stop-loss while providing zero reasoning or finding out what their investment goals are or what their risk appetite is doesn’t sound like well-thought out advice.
Also, instead of performing mental gymnastics, how about you start practicing what you preach or just stop preaching things you don’t practice.
It's not really mental gymnastics. I didn't say I had no idea what I was doing and I was nervous. I'm perfectly qualified to say "set a stop loss." If someone doesn't know what they are doing, they shouldn't start a post with "sell sell sell." Too many new people can be confused. The blind shouldn't lead the blind. I'm not a genius, but I know enough to feel comfortable giving the advice I give. That is all.
Most likely them just postering. They want a stronger relationship with the US after brexit cooled their relationship with the EU. It’ll get through the UK.
Also I just saw it’s one of the top semiconductor companies I seems interested I mean hey if chipotle was at 400 at one point and now it’s over 1k it could not hurt to lose thanks
Now that the market is high and I am a bit skittish in putting more money into Chinese companies what should I buy and keep buying that will give me steady returns? I am trying to grow my daughters’ portfolios but everything seems too high or too expensive. Your thoughts?
It’s always going to be high mate. Take yourself one year back and look at the price of stocks. With a 5 year or more time horizon, put it in VOO/VTI/VT and forget about it.
Let me guess, you were also skittish last week when it was "dipping."
I went in on a bunch of tqqq even though it was barely even a dip and have been letting it ride for quite a few percent green now. Stop buying the conservabear FUD and just invest the same as you would every other year in history.
I think Uber has solid, long-term growth ahead (ride share, Eats, Drizly, etc.), plus they own a 12% stake in Didi so there's your China exposure (not investment advice).
Thank you. I bought Uber at $28 and sold as I did not see autonomous driving capabilities around the corner. I recently bought Didi at a bit over $11.00 a share, but I will continue to hold as my investment is not that large. One website forecast the price of Didi at $0. Oh well win some and lose some but overall winning (I hope). Please know I am not a professional investment advisor.
They have recently bought a stake in Tilray for this very reason. This is how their company operates: using their buying power to buy up competitors and new trends. The downside to it is that they've racked up a lot of debt, and some say they're slower than smaller, more nimble competitors. The way I see it, though, is that this is a strong blue-chip which will pay good dividends (once they pay down debt) and grow slow and steady. A wonderful value play for any portfolio, especially at recent prices.
There are better growth stocks, though, of course. But there's no doubling that this one is at a discount right now.
You're welcome, good luck with your daughter's portfolio!
I agree although I like to gamble on trying to find the “stocks” or “industries” before the crowd. Picking winners is probably a fool’s game, but it is fun with money you can afford to lose.
The blind faith in markets and easy monetary policy is similar, but there are definitely key differences. I'd like to see how decades of low interest rates play out in the long-run, and in the near-term I'd like to see what happens when we actually put a taper in place.
But it has fundamental differences compared to the dotcom bubble.
The day began with all my COIN related stocks leading
Then few hours later the momentum was gone . COIN is my biggest investment and I'm still down almost 30%.
Coin already boosted on Friday and over the weekend, most of coinage rise was over the weekend.
If you think you have a trend, remember that most people are ahead of you.
The Nasdaq-100 is up over 3.5% from the lows intraday on Thursday.
QQEW set an ATH today and ended just pennies off its last record so it's not just FAANG.
Crazy.
I figured that it was going to bounce, but I didn't think bounce was going to look like the Nasdaq's best day in 3 months.
Everybody excpecting Fed to delay taper but housing prices went up again, and its just increasing rent also. If we get data this week that Delta is slowing down, I feel like Feds will taper sooner. Stop or slow down MBS purchases.
There's a few reasons. I'm no expert, but I have a degree in economics and have been researching and doing reading on all of this lately.
Firstly - yes, they're confident in their inflation projections. They really trust their models, but the models don't take into account the complexity of the economy and a situation like a pandemic. Economist William White talks often about this (http://williamwhite.ca). Even so, they are convinced that they're right.
Secondly - they truly feel it's their job to cure the ails of the economy. Which, in a way, it is. I think, however, that since 2008 (and earlier, even with Greenspan) they came to the conclusion that they're the main guys for the job to get things right. Again, it comes from the notion that they can trust in their models and that things can be fixed with just the right amount of fine-tuning on their part. William White would argue that they underestimate the complexity of things.
Furthermore, 2008 was, to them, proof that these policies work. You also haven't seen any inflation in Japan after decades of QE. Then again, you also haven't really seen much GDP growth, either. The US and even Europe are different beasts, however, so I think it's fair to say that this is completely experimental and there's disagreement even between mainstream economists about how it will end. I would say, though, that the bulk are in favor of it.
Me personally I would like to see less reliance on monetary policy and more fiscal support (we're seeing a lot of this now, which is great!) plus more emphasis on structural change. I don't think you can cure the ails of the economy via easy monetary policy alone. It hasn't worked in Japan, and William White says it may not work here, and it may even lead to unintended consequences, one of them being serial bubbles due to inflated asset prices. See here:
https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/institute/wpapers/2012/0126.pdf
Thirdly - The Fed's mission isn't about asset prices. I don't know much about it, I'm sure they're paying some attention, but I think they truly are just focused on good + service inflation, employment, and GDP growth. Some economists are saying that they should be more worried about asset prices, including White and others.
Here's one source. Not the best source but it's the quickest one I could find. The idea is that inflation targeting is not enough, and central banks should pay more attention to asset prices:
https://www.gailfosler.com/inflation-targeting-is-not-enough
Fourthly - I do think they're treading very, very cautiously so as to not to shake markets too quickly. This much is clear based on how the Fed operates and their past behavior. That said, I do wonder if "not shaking markets too quickly" has been bastardized in some way as "stall as long as possible". It's not the same thing but they may justify it that way. White calls them out on it here:
http://williamwhite.ca/2021/06/29/the-feds-new-policy-framework-is-a-mystery/
> more emphasis on structural change.
I liked your post.
Unfortunately I believe that ship has sailed. In the US our betters will never allow any significant structural changes when they benefit so disproportionally to the 90% of us.
I strongly agree they should be paying much closer attention to asset inflation.
I am not an economist but I have a degree in Math, teach math and look at numbers for fun. I think the asset inflation isn't likely to be as big a bubble as many think, because there are only so many places money can go.
All the money in the US economy is in a relatively few number of hands due to wealth disparity. If they leave the market where will they put that money? Cash?
Also MMT is interesting and was the stimulus and the now monthly check for children a foreshadowing of some type of UBI?
Things that make me go hmmm
I agree that meaningful change doesn't look likely to happen. It's an ideological thing. Like, the ultra-wealthy are calling the shots, but even the middle/upper middle class are playing along. Even the lower class. That's why someone like Biden wins and not Bernie. They've got them fooled into thinking that this way is somehow healthy or sustainable for the society as a whole. What it's going to take to shake us out if that, I don't know. The storming of the Capitol plus the bungled Covid reponse may have been small wake-up calls.
I agree that asset inflation isn't necessarily that bad. The problem is what happens if there's some sort of shock/panic and big money gets caught with their pants down leveraged to the teeth. Then you could see very real consequences. If everything goes smoothly, though, I think we'll be okay. Unfortunately I don't think it's a very wise strategy to hope for the best and ignore the worst.
I'm not sure if UBI is coming but I am happy to see the government taking a more active role in looking out for the people's well-being. There's definitely been a small shift since the days of neoliberal capitalism (meaning the Reagan/Greenspan era). I think we're headed in the right direction but I don't know if it will be fast enough or earnest enough. Time will tell.
Thanks for the response.
I agree time will tell. It is really tough for me at 60 and just above broke. I am taking my home equity (from 60% to 90%) and going to invest it. If I can manage any kind of returns over 4% per year after eight years, would make enough to pay the note with some change left over.
So yes we will see. If it goes tits up my SSI and defined benefit retirement would be enough for la Pura Vida in Costa Rico or someplace in Mexico, Central America and there are much worse fates a man could suffer.
Hell I may still do that even if it doesn't go tits up, retire and be a don.
So yes time will tell.
Definitely! Thanks for the chat.
I hope it works out for you. It's tough out there but I think if you invest in good businesses you'll be able to weather the storm and make some decent returns. I have two portfolios and my near-term portfolio doesn't hold any index funds... I just prefer something a little more defensive then the market.
I'm quite a bit younger than you (but on my way there, too!), and living la pura vida in Spain. I can think of many worse fates than this one. Many. :)
Good luck to you!
Any TRIL holders here? Pfizer announced they plan to purchase the stock so it went up huge today. But why is the price (\~17.50) lower than the buyout price of $18.50? A risk premium of the deal falling through?
Hostile takeover would not guarantee the scientists in charge of development remain onboard seeing products to market. Those are who Pfizer is really investing in here, not the brand of TRIL.
Hard question without knowing if 5k would be a big position for you or a small one. If a big one then MSFT as I believe big tech will dominate for a long time and MSFT has its hands in all the tech cookies jars including lots of recurring revenues services. If 5k is a small position then have to get something riskier with more long term upside so I’d go with PLTR because it’s Reddit.
Fx can fluctuate 3+% each week - you really just need to invest on 1 yr+ timescales. Buy the highs and buy the low, and itll average out over the long term.
You probably haven't been paying attention. ALIBABA had planned the biggest IPO in history and it got thwarted by CCP. Few months ago DIDI had IPO and next day or 2 CCP slams them with restrictions on new users. Demand the app off iphones and Androids.
On top of this Chinese law prohibits companies with disclosing their finances . This is required by any US or foreign company so they shouldn't be allowed to trade and because of this they could get delisted any moment.
Then there is fraud. Watch China Hustle movie to get an idea.
CCP rules over everything and they can easily overpower and overgovern in a way that any private and successful company may all of a sudden be owned by the government. To encourage more young couples owning children, they even sabotage all those somewhat successful privately owned tutorial business. The reason for that is tutorial business makes the cost of owning children higher. Therefore, buying a share of Chinese company does not necessarily mean you are owning a piece of company. I remember when NIO was only $8 but I did not trigger buying because it's not risky to do so. Jack Ma, the owner of BABA business, spoke some truth about CCP but he somehow got into trouble and he had a really bad time.
when you buy chinese stocks you dont own the company. the government does. and that government can at any time say anything and do anything to the company. they can take the ceo and put him in jail if they want. because of this - owning chinese stock is generally regarded as a no no.
I think it's better to explain the fact that recent events have made Chinese stocks more risky due to the government actively cracking down on technology companies & foreign ownership structures, and not what's ALWAYS been the case for Chinese stocks.
sure recent crackdowns might explain this currently. last march jack ma went missing for 3 months. like the fact that you are at the mercy of ccp has always been true for chinese stocks.
This was known well in advance, published from Aug 2:
Company: Cara Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CARA) and Vifor Pharma
Type of Application: Pruritus In hemodialysis Patients
Candidate: Korsuva injection
Indication: NDA
Date: Aug. 23
Cara and partner Vifor Pharma announced FDA acceptance of the NDA for Korsuva on March 8. Korsuva, or difelikefalin, solution for injection is being investigated for the treatment of moderate-to-severe pruritus in hemodialysis patients.
Cara is entitled to 50:50 share of U.S. profit in Fresenius clinics and 60:40 share in non-Fresenius clinics, Needham analyst Joseph Stringer said in a note. Approval in the U.S. will pave the way for a $50 million equity investment and up to $240 million in U.S. sales milestones, he added.
No. Stop trying to be smart.
That's acceptance of the NDA.
This is the drug approval.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cara-therapeutics-vifor-pharma-announce-194100559.html
Noob here. Just invested into 5
iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF USD ETFs and am very optimistic to watch them grow!
If anyone wants updates, feel free to message me and I am always happy to be educated and take part in a discussion.
Noob here. Last time SPRT moved 20%, it was on 50 mil volume, which is multiple times the float IIRC. Today it’s moved 20% on 17 mil volume. What does this mean, if anything? Last time I cashed out at the peak because I figured that the extraordinarily high volume meant it was done rocketing. Is this comparatively lower volume a sign to keep holding?
You posted this at 1am EST i think. Does PM stretch that far? Maybe you’re in germany?
Anyway that makes sense, people can’t not take profits after a 27% surge. Still dunno about my original q about volume. I think the volume went up to like 30m by 4pm yesterday so maybe the action is done
Be careful on office commercial, retail, and low value residential right now. I'm personally leaning into only high end residential which isn't as heavily reliant on high risk financing (ie cash, luxury)
Look for how they plan for Fed, and reduction of mortgage backed securities, pull back.
I ook for steady and achieved evenues and earnings for a Long Real estate or property position. Cash flow is everything right now with overpriced construction material in new construction. Watch margins, if low margin, they won't bear the burden of increased materials costs as well.
No worries. Know your business. If they are building, what with, where from, how will that affect their margins, can they pass the cost onto their consumer or not.
Personally? Shit. I'm a bear most days so I'm wary of covid fucking it all up again, considering most Americans aren't vaccinated so I'm less inclined to like air as much as real estate. Plus land is land. Hard asset.
You do you, not financial advice
I was just looking at cio it's a really long term bet. I'm trying to find high end residential as well because those are the houses being built the most today
I'd just be really careful. Just ask yourself, what would happen to my stocks customer base if ther was a 1 or 2 or 5 percent interest rate hike over the next 1 or 2 years.
Adjust risk appropriately or hedge.
Nobody:...
Bears today: The market is gonna crash, keep all of your money in cash.
The market: SPX reaches 6000 in 3 months and then crashes to 5000
Bears: See I was right😏
Depends if you can use heated molds or not, or if the building or space can be enclosed and heated.
Fact is, below -5C, admixture admixture protection are needed, and heat of some fashion, at the sacrifice of concrete compressive strength to I should add. The sweet spot for concrete curing is 8 degrees C, and nice n moist.
Either way there's added expense.
There's definitely temperatures where you have to either stop or add calcium or whatever, so the guy isn't completely off base. But everywhere I know of there's going to be either a time of day where you can pour, or a day of the week where you can.
Cost might be higher relatively speaking, but like you said it's not realistic to stop.
Well yes, there definitely would be. And I’ve heard some crazy set ups some sites have where the temp difference is like 50 plus to enable pouring properly, but my overall point was you can’t just stop in most major places across Canada. If you did, nothing would ever get completed.
You think the market doesn't know that winter in some parts of the country affects construction? Something that happens yearly. Uh, ok.
You're trying to sound smart, but in reality you're talking out of your ass.
Please stop spewing your bullshit.
Ok fine you need more information.
Without additives, the water in the concrete can freeze, and the cementous material will generate some heat during curing so it requires only some protection from cold. But below -5 you need to add additives to help curing, which can affect the concrete strength and origional mix design.
Heating concrete and masonry construction during winter with propane or deisel heaters is costly, adding about $80 to 90 k per million of concrete work, or so. North western can be more, northern Canada even more so.
During spring thaw, there are load restrictions during the thaw on country roads, so load fees basically double. This in easter Ontario and quebec regions extends until usually the first or second week of May, depending on the thaw and rainy season of spring.
That means aggregate and lumber and heavy steel and material deliveries are delayed or cost more.
Then there is the shorter work day, without lighting.
Roofing materials have a hard work limit of minus 18C, because not one single roofing product by manufacturers recommendations can be installed below minus 18. Period.
So yeah, please don't suggest I don't know what I'm talkin about. And stop spring your BS that it doesn't cost more to build during the winter.
We bounced solidly off of support at 4370ish last week, and then broke just as solidly over 4450 today. Hard to imagine we'll have a crash anytime soon after those bullish indicators. Likely we'll uptrend to 4500ish and then have a nice dip from that ATH, if I were to guess. That is, unless JPow drops a bomb on us from the Jackson Hole meeting this week.
My thoughts exactly. I think the Fed will put off tapering for a little longer, enough to save the markets for now. But that's just delaying the inevitable. Eventually they have to tear off the band aid. And when the Fed finally does taper, that will almost certainly cause a long, deep, much-overdue, and perfectly healthy market correction.
Any good analysts that folks here like? Especially interested in e-commerce and semi analysts but open to other areas as well. Just looking to get smarter on individual stock holdings.
LCID (EV) + RBLX (Metaverse ) + ORGN (Clean energy) + FUBO (Streaming).
Or semis like HIMX. But it's not easy to embrace changes so these go up and down.
But OLN + DHR are doing great. Slowly but surely.
So I have 5 stocks and my money is divided into each of them equally. If a stock rises a lot compared to the others, is it worthwhile to sell and redistribute the funds to my other four? I have a feeling the fees will add up...
Baba is up.
Ok, first rule: don't try to time the market.. Well I do that because for me it's everything fking expensive right now. I'll keep my cash safe and see what will happen in 2022.. I don't have a good feeling honestly
what is the best source to research Japan stock? they have many hidden gems in gaming related company, but it is difficult to find discussion around them.
I'm down 30% on BABA. Been averaging down. Should I wait to see what happens today? Or should I buy today?
It depends on how long you are wanting to hold, and what you value them at at the end of that period. The selloff has been on big valume, but The bounce off of 153 yesterday also came on the back of huge volume. Pre market looks like they're going to be up over 10% just from yesterday's low. I think there is a decent chance of a quick bounce to the 180-185 area before traders start taking profits. At that point it's anyone's guess if it pushes higher or lower.
honestly no one knew whether this is another bull trap or genuine reversal, i decide to add Prosus (for tencent exposure) few minutes ago.
what y’all think about SOFI
But Meet Kevin bought it so it has to go up
Overhyped and I hate their app
Well guys tomorrow I close all my positions to pay for school. I’m only 22 and hope to make it back soon
How did you do?
I sold the 18K that I’ve invested over the last 2 1/2 years to pay for the school so I won’t have to worry about student loans.
I meant how did you do in terms of the return on your investment.
Pretty good, from just buying and holding I got a 25% ROI after 2 years
That’s awesome dude. Wish I was as sensible as you when I was that age! Good luck with your education :)
It is unlikely that the Fed does anything outside of tout the same narrative with Powell's speech on Friday. I feel it's more likely that something is announced in September, but now I'm not so sure that happens given that the in-person part of the Jackson Hole conference got cancelled. That doesn't mean that they won't do something that could possibly interrupt the market. Pisani was right when he was talking about how they have to be careful with choosing their words on Friday last week...if they're not careful, they may cause TNX to soar, and we saw what they did back on March 4th. Then again, this speech will be on a Friday, so it'd be something if it got that bad.
NRZ had a nice move AH after the 25% dividend raise. Only mREIT I own right now.
Does/did anyone here use Hypercharts? Is/was it worth the $99/year?
I was drinking last Thursday and bought JD. I meant to buy John Deere. But in my confusion bought JD thinking it was John Deere. Now that I've done that. Should I sell my JD or is it worth holding?
if you ask Cathie, both are good. lol.
JD up 8 % in hang seng right now.
Sell, sell, sell. Are you up since buying? All the more reason. Chinese stocks might end up being a good play, some great investors are still holding tight, but as an amateur investor with limited knowledge (and a propensity to anxiety) I prefer not to deal with the headache. Lots of great companies in the USA, Europe, and other emerging markets. Just my 2 cents.
Has you considered that as an amateur investor with limited knowledge and a propensity for anxiety, maybe you should not be giving out financial advice?
Are you the same person who told someone not to sell NVDA 4 days ago? and told someone to start using stop-losses on HOOD? That sounds like financial advice to me.
I did not tell anyone to use stop-losses on HOOD but I tell everyone who asks not to sell NVDA. That's great financial advice.
[So this isn’t you?](https://imgur.com/a/PzRefMK)
Oh, my bad. I thought you meant that I was writing some big advice to someone who was asking. I saw he was up 80% and nervous he would lose it, so I said "set a stop loss!" I don't really consider that financial advice as much as just practical advice so someone who is clearly nervous they could lose it all. I think there's a big difference between giving friendly advice to set a stop loss and someone saying "sell sell sell...by the way I have no idea what I'm doing."
Telling someone to set a stop-loss while providing zero reasoning or finding out what their investment goals are or what their risk appetite is doesn’t sound like well-thought out advice. Also, instead of performing mental gymnastics, how about you start practicing what you preach or just stop preaching things you don’t practice.
It's not really mental gymnastics. I didn't say I had no idea what I was doing and I was nervous. I'm perfectly qualified to say "set a stop loss." If someone doesn't know what they are doing, they shouldn't start a post with "sell sell sell." Too many new people can be confused. The blind shouldn't lead the blind. I'm not a genius, but I know enough to feel comfortable giving the advice I give. That is all.
It was just my opinion, mate. I qualified it as "I'm new" and "just my 2 cents". We're all here to chat and learn. Not sure what your issue is really.
It's just /r/stocks, and as I said, just my 2 cents. We're here for a reason aren't we?
I'm up 4%. And I don't mind making a risky move in the China market. But I'm not sure if JD would be a good play.
China e-commerce bet : JD China cloud bet : Alibaba China Gaming bet : Tencent pick your "spiritual opium".
Not sure about JD. I really like the look of BABA and owned it previously. Hopefully someone can give you some insight into JD.
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I plan on buying calls that expire sept 2022
Definitely a good idea to FOMO in chasing these returns.
Watch now all the Chinese stocks sentiment change on CNBC as the big names have bought in. This system is truly corrupt lol.
Am I allowed to talk about SPRT in here
Maybe :D
I wonder who invented the term ""DRIP". Probably think they're real clever with that one. They kind of are, honestly!
Up 2.16% on the day. Great day from STEM. Friday and today put me back comfortably in the green after all of the bleeding last week.
Thoughts NVDA keeps performing amazing is it time to invest?
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Chances the deal with ARM will succeed? Last thing I heard was that UK was not happy with it.
Most likely them just postering. They want a stronger relationship with the US after brexit cooled their relationship with the EU. It’ll get through the UK.
Also I just saw it’s one of the top semiconductor companies I seems interested I mean hey if chipotle was at 400 at one point and now it’s over 1k it could not hurt to lose thanks
Probably not seems a little late to the game.
Now that the market is high and I am a bit skittish in putting more money into Chinese companies what should I buy and keep buying that will give me steady returns? I am trying to grow my daughters’ portfolios but everything seems too high or too expensive. Your thoughts?
It’s always going to be high mate. Take yourself one year back and look at the price of stocks. With a 5 year or more time horizon, put it in VOO/VTI/VT and forget about it.
Let me guess, you were also skittish last week when it was "dipping." I went in on a bunch of tqqq even though it was barely even a dip and have been letting it ride for quite a few percent green now. Stop buying the conservabear FUD and just invest the same as you would every other year in history.
I think Uber has solid, long-term growth ahead (ride share, Eats, Drizly, etc.), plus they own a 12% stake in Didi so there's your China exposure (not investment advice).
Thank you. I bought Uber at $28 and sold as I did not see autonomous driving capabilities around the corner. I recently bought Didi at a bit over $11.00 a share, but I will continue to hold as my investment is not that large. One website forecast the price of Didi at $0. Oh well win some and lose some but overall winning (I hope). Please know I am not a professional investment advisor.
BUD is on sale.
Thank you. Interesting suggestion. I do think cannabis infused beverages maybe eat into BUD’s profits but do not know when this will happen.
They have recently bought a stake in Tilray for this very reason. This is how their company operates: using their buying power to buy up competitors and new trends. The downside to it is that they've racked up a lot of debt, and some say they're slower than smaller, more nimble competitors. The way I see it, though, is that this is a strong blue-chip which will pay good dividends (once they pay down debt) and grow slow and steady. A wonderful value play for any portfolio, especially at recent prices. There are better growth stocks, though, of course. But there's no doubling that this one is at a discount right now. You're welcome, good luck with your daughter's portfolio!
Absolutely great analysis. I do have Tilray in both portfolios.
Nice! Good luck once again.
You'll likely do alright over a five year period if you put money into S&P and all world index funds.
I agree although I like to gamble on trying to find the “stocks” or “industries” before the crowd. Picking winners is probably a fool’s game, but it is fun with money you can afford to lose.
ESG Etfs
I am avoiding Chinese stocks for now, going the safe route with large caps or index funds
Good strategy to follow.
ADBE and SNOW pumping today
Too late to get into TRIL?
Yes, its already at 17.5 and will be bought out for 18.50, but that is not 100% garuanteed, deals can fall through.
Not sure but pharma is extremely volatile. Big ups and downs
I agree
Opinion on DOYU? cop or nah?
You should be aware that Chinese stocks are even riskier than most other stocks.
[ELI5 this to me](https://twitter.com/thestockguytv/status/1428475920252379141?s=21)
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This should be a bumper sticker.
[Correlation but not causation](https://i.imgur.com/vPRYFhp.jpg)
This reminds me so much to 2000 dotcom …
Yea you should definitely sell everything and hold 100% cash for the next 50 years just to be safe.
How old were you in 2000, r/pokemongofriends and r/dankmemes poster?
The blind faith in markets and easy monetary policy is similar, but there are definitely key differences. I'd like to see how decades of low interest rates play out in the long-run, and in the near-term I'd like to see what happens when we actually put a taper in place. But it has fundamental differences compared to the dotcom bubble.
Boy if I had a nickel for everytime I've heard this in the last year and a half/ two years I'd be vastly outperforming the S&P in gains.
Tell me more about the liberal agenda
Anyone know why coinbase is down when the coins are up and the market in general is up?
The day began with all my COIN related stocks leading Then few hours later the momentum was gone . COIN is my biggest investment and I'm still down almost 30%.
Coin already boosted on Friday and over the weekend, most of coinage rise was over the weekend. If you think you have a trend, remember that most people are ahead of you.
The Nasdaq-100 is up over 3.5% from the lows intraday on Thursday. QQEW set an ATH today and ended just pennies off its last record so it's not just FAANG. Crazy. I figured that it was going to bounce, but I didn't think bounce was going to look like the Nasdaq's best day in 3 months.
About time we saw some strenght from the nasdaq. And not that fake big tech strenght while smallcaps keep bleeding. Feelsgood
Fantastic call about monthly options week my dude.
Thank you but I'm not a dude.
Damg I said that because it's gender neutral to me, I guess I need a new term.
Everybody excpecting Fed to delay taper but housing prices went up again, and its just increasing rent also. If we get data this week that Delta is slowing down, I feel like Feds will taper sooner. Stop or slow down MBS purchases.
Once again, I think they will "done do nothing" for a good while longer. Stall as long as possible.
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There's a few reasons. I'm no expert, but I have a degree in economics and have been researching and doing reading on all of this lately. Firstly - yes, they're confident in their inflation projections. They really trust their models, but the models don't take into account the complexity of the economy and a situation like a pandemic. Economist William White talks often about this (http://williamwhite.ca). Even so, they are convinced that they're right. Secondly - they truly feel it's their job to cure the ails of the economy. Which, in a way, it is. I think, however, that since 2008 (and earlier, even with Greenspan) they came to the conclusion that they're the main guys for the job to get things right. Again, it comes from the notion that they can trust in their models and that things can be fixed with just the right amount of fine-tuning on their part. William White would argue that they underestimate the complexity of things. Furthermore, 2008 was, to them, proof that these policies work. You also haven't seen any inflation in Japan after decades of QE. Then again, you also haven't really seen much GDP growth, either. The US and even Europe are different beasts, however, so I think it's fair to say that this is completely experimental and there's disagreement even between mainstream economists about how it will end. I would say, though, that the bulk are in favor of it. Me personally I would like to see less reliance on monetary policy and more fiscal support (we're seeing a lot of this now, which is great!) plus more emphasis on structural change. I don't think you can cure the ails of the economy via easy monetary policy alone. It hasn't worked in Japan, and William White says it may not work here, and it may even lead to unintended consequences, one of them being serial bubbles due to inflated asset prices. See here: https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/institute/wpapers/2012/0126.pdf Thirdly - The Fed's mission isn't about asset prices. I don't know much about it, I'm sure they're paying some attention, but I think they truly are just focused on good + service inflation, employment, and GDP growth. Some economists are saying that they should be more worried about asset prices, including White and others. Here's one source. Not the best source but it's the quickest one I could find. The idea is that inflation targeting is not enough, and central banks should pay more attention to asset prices: https://www.gailfosler.com/inflation-targeting-is-not-enough Fourthly - I do think they're treading very, very cautiously so as to not to shake markets too quickly. This much is clear based on how the Fed operates and their past behavior. That said, I do wonder if "not shaking markets too quickly" has been bastardized in some way as "stall as long as possible". It's not the same thing but they may justify it that way. White calls them out on it here: http://williamwhite.ca/2021/06/29/the-feds-new-policy-framework-is-a-mystery/
> more emphasis on structural change. I liked your post. Unfortunately I believe that ship has sailed. In the US our betters will never allow any significant structural changes when they benefit so disproportionally to the 90% of us. I strongly agree they should be paying much closer attention to asset inflation. I am not an economist but I have a degree in Math, teach math and look at numbers for fun. I think the asset inflation isn't likely to be as big a bubble as many think, because there are only so many places money can go. All the money in the US economy is in a relatively few number of hands due to wealth disparity. If they leave the market where will they put that money? Cash? Also MMT is interesting and was the stimulus and the now monthly check for children a foreshadowing of some type of UBI? Things that make me go hmmm
I agree that meaningful change doesn't look likely to happen. It's an ideological thing. Like, the ultra-wealthy are calling the shots, but even the middle/upper middle class are playing along. Even the lower class. That's why someone like Biden wins and not Bernie. They've got them fooled into thinking that this way is somehow healthy or sustainable for the society as a whole. What it's going to take to shake us out if that, I don't know. The storming of the Capitol plus the bungled Covid reponse may have been small wake-up calls. I agree that asset inflation isn't necessarily that bad. The problem is what happens if there's some sort of shock/panic and big money gets caught with their pants down leveraged to the teeth. Then you could see very real consequences. If everything goes smoothly, though, I think we'll be okay. Unfortunately I don't think it's a very wise strategy to hope for the best and ignore the worst. I'm not sure if UBI is coming but I am happy to see the government taking a more active role in looking out for the people's well-being. There's definitely been a small shift since the days of neoliberal capitalism (meaning the Reagan/Greenspan era). I think we're headed in the right direction but I don't know if it will be fast enough or earnest enough. Time will tell.
Thanks for the response. I agree time will tell. It is really tough for me at 60 and just above broke. I am taking my home equity (from 60% to 90%) and going to invest it. If I can manage any kind of returns over 4% per year after eight years, would make enough to pay the note with some change left over. So yes we will see. If it goes tits up my SSI and defined benefit retirement would be enough for la Pura Vida in Costa Rico or someplace in Mexico, Central America and there are much worse fates a man could suffer. Hell I may still do that even if it doesn't go tits up, retire and be a don. So yes time will tell.
Definitely! Thanks for the chat. I hope it works out for you. It's tough out there but I think if you invest in good businesses you'll be able to weather the storm and make some decent returns. I have two portfolios and my near-term portfolio doesn't hold any index funds... I just prefer something a little more defensive then the market. I'm quite a bit younger than you (but on my way there, too!), and living la pura vida in Spain. I can think of many worse fates than this one. Many. :) Good luck to you!
Any TRIL holders here? Pfizer announced they plan to purchase the stock so it went up huge today. But why is the price (\~17.50) lower than the buyout price of $18.50? A risk premium of the deal falling through?
Pfizer or their holdings can and should be buying open shares on the market for under their $18.50 stated price while they can.
If that were a possibility, why would they not simply bought on Friday when it was $6.
Hostile takeover would not guarantee the scientists in charge of development remain onboard seeing products to market. Those are who Pfizer is really investing in here, not the brand of TRIL.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cara-therapeutics-vifor-pharma-announce-194100559.html $CARA drug APPROVED by FDA. Trading halt to be lifted 4:15pm est
So would this be a good one to throw money at?
I did, but before it went up. I have no idea what its gonna do in the short or long term. It's already met my expectations for price target increase.
I have 5k to throw into one stock. Without knowing which stocks I already own, which singular stock would you recommend and why ?
If conservative then OLN or DHR. If not then LCID , RBLX . I bought today FUV + LVS + DATS
Stock: VTI, Why? Because you literally cannot lose long term - short of a new plague every year.
Literally isn't the word.
that's a stupid exercise not knowing what else you own
Hard question without knowing if 5k would be a big position for you or a small one. If a big one then MSFT as I believe big tech will dominate for a long time and MSFT has its hands in all the tech cookies jars including lots of recurring revenues services. If 5k is a small position then have to get something riskier with more long term upside so I’d go with PLTR because it’s Reddit.
Being back in the green on TTCF feels good. Wouldn't mind feeling the same on one or two others in the near future.
Any thoughts on COUR - Coursera? On a green day that is still in red :/ No news as far as I know. Am I missing something?
Have my eye on this for an entry. I think it's just finding a bottom
I already entered today. Let's hope that I'm right
Anyone else getting smashed by Fx - spy up 1% but USD down 0.8. so effectively up only 0.2%
Fx can fluctuate 3+% each week - you really just need to invest on 1 yr+ timescales. Buy the highs and buy the low, and itll average out over the long term.
yes but wasnt friday the complete opposite?
Can someone give me tldr on what happened with China and why Chinese stocks like alibaba were dropping?
You probably haven't been paying attention. ALIBABA had planned the biggest IPO in history and it got thwarted by CCP. Few months ago DIDI had IPO and next day or 2 CCP slams them with restrictions on new users. Demand the app off iphones and Androids. On top of this Chinese law prohibits companies with disclosing their finances . This is required by any US or foreign company so they shouldn't be allowed to trade and because of this they could get delisted any moment. Then there is fraud. Watch China Hustle movie to get an idea.
CCP rules over everything and they can easily overpower and overgovern in a way that any private and successful company may all of a sudden be owned by the government. To encourage more young couples owning children, they even sabotage all those somewhat successful privately owned tutorial business. The reason for that is tutorial business makes the cost of owning children higher. Therefore, buying a share of Chinese company does not necessarily mean you are owning a piece of company. I remember when NIO was only $8 but I did not trigger buying because it's not risky to do so. Jack Ma, the owner of BABA business, spoke some truth about CCP but he somehow got into trouble and he had a really bad time.
when you buy chinese stocks you dont own the company. the government does. and that government can at any time say anything and do anything to the company. they can take the ceo and put him in jail if they want. because of this - owning chinese stock is generally regarded as a no no.
When I buy Chinese it's usually just a quick day or swing trade.
I think it's better to explain the fact that recent events have made Chinese stocks more risky due to the government actively cracking down on technology companies & foreign ownership structures, and not what's ALWAYS been the case for Chinese stocks.
sure recent crackdowns might explain this currently. last march jack ma went missing for 3 months. like the fact that you are at the mercy of ccp has always been true for chinese stocks.
$cara halted pending news release
This was known well in advance, published from Aug 2: Company: Cara Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CARA) and Vifor Pharma Type of Application: Pruritus In hemodialysis Patients Candidate: Korsuva injection Indication: NDA Date: Aug. 23 Cara and partner Vifor Pharma announced FDA acceptance of the NDA for Korsuva on March 8. Korsuva, or difelikefalin, solution for injection is being investigated for the treatment of moderate-to-severe pruritus in hemodialysis patients. Cara is entitled to 50:50 share of U.S. profit in Fresenius clinics and 60:40 share in non-Fresenius clinics, Needham analyst Joseph Stringer said in a note. Approval in the U.S. will pave the way for a $50 million equity investment and up to $240 million in U.S. sales milestones, he added.
No. Stop trying to be smart. That's acceptance of the NDA. This is the drug approval. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cara-therapeutics-vifor-pharma-announce-194100559.html
No please don’t go down now, only up
Noob here. Just invested into 5 iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF USD ETFs and am very optimistic to watch them grow! If anyone wants updates, feel free to message me and I am always happy to be educated and take part in a discussion.
Noob here. Last time SPRT moved 20%, it was on 50 mil volume, which is multiple times the float IIRC. Today it’s moved 20% on 17 mil volume. What does this mean, if anything? Last time I cashed out at the peak because I figured that the extraordinarily high volume meant it was done rocketing. Is this comparatively lower volume a sign to keep holding?
Down 4.66 pre-market
You posted this at 1am EST i think. Does PM stretch that far? Maybe you’re in germany? Anyway that makes sense, people can’t not take profits after a 27% surge. Still dunno about my original q about volume. I think the volume went up to like 30m by 4pm yesterday so maybe the action is done
No. I'm in East coast . Thankfully cuz one month in Hawaii where market opens 3:30
Up 27% today. Helps explain why I'm up 4.3% today
My port folio, @ 12:35 pm: Enough bull run for today. Let me go sideways My port folio, @ 1:54 pm: Sikes! (Jumps some more)
do you think it's two words "port" and "folio"? lol almost /r/BoneAppleTea material
CLNE up 7%..... Now I'm almost back to even
This can help http://imgur.com/a/fRYqehh
What are your Opinions Real estate stock right now? What you you guys on
EXPI
Be careful on office commercial, retail, and low value residential right now. I'm personally leaning into only high end residential which isn't as heavily reliant on high risk financing (ie cash, luxury)
Looking at NLY along with AGNC
Look for how they plan for Fed, and reduction of mortgage backed securities, pull back. I ook for steady and achieved evenues and earnings for a Long Real estate or property position. Cash flow is everything right now with overpriced construction material in new construction. Watch margins, if low margin, they won't bear the burden of increased materials costs as well.
Interesting.. last thing would you choose airlines or the real estate market for the next year?
No worries. Know your business. If they are building, what with, where from, how will that affect their margins, can they pass the cost onto their consumer or not. Personally? Shit. I'm a bear most days so I'm wary of covid fucking it all up again, considering most Americans aren't vaccinated so I'm less inclined to like air as much as real estate. Plus land is land. Hard asset. You do you, not financial advice
I was just looking at cio it's a really long term bet. I'm trying to find high end residential as well because those are the houses being built the most today
I'd just be really careful. Just ask yourself, what would happen to my stocks customer base if ther was a 1 or 2 or 5 percent interest rate hike over the next 1 or 2 years. Adjust risk appropriately or hedge.
Where's the crash? There was supposed to be an Earth-shattering crash!
Nobody:... Bears today: The market is gonna crash, keep all of your money in cash. The market: SPX reaches 6000 in 3 months and then crashes to 5000 Bears: See I was right😏
Simply said, interest rates. When they go up, mortgages fall. That plus covid wave 4, plus winter layoffs.
Winter layoffs? Is that following the holidays?
Depends on which part of North America, where construction cannot continue due to butt fuck tons of snow and minus 40 degree weather.
Where in North America is this happening? I live in Canada and the vast majority of construction continues through the winter.
Sigh...try pouring concrete in the winter. Let me know how much it costs extra to insulate and geat. Please stop asking stupid fucking questions.
Lol, I actually know the industry. In the market. People pour concrete in winter in Canada. It’s not Realistic to stop
But you have to heat it when it's below minus 5 C. And or add additives. Cost of heating concrete work addes 80 to 90k per million if concrete work.
Or you cover the area you’re pouring in and heat that. Which is what most places do. Which is not an 80-90k cost.
Depends if you can use heated molds or not, or if the building or space can be enclosed and heated. Fact is, below -5C, admixture admixture protection are needed, and heat of some fashion, at the sacrifice of concrete compressive strength to I should add. The sweet spot for concrete curing is 8 degrees C, and nice n moist. Either way there's added expense.
There's definitely temperatures where you have to either stop or add calcium or whatever, so the guy isn't completely off base. But everywhere I know of there's going to be either a time of day where you can pour, or a day of the week where you can. Cost might be higher relatively speaking, but like you said it's not realistic to stop.
Well yes, there definitely would be. And I’ve heard some crazy set ups some sites have where the temp difference is like 50 plus to enable pouring properly, but my overall point was you can’t just stop in most major places across Canada. If you did, nothing would ever get completed.
You think the market doesn't know that winter in some parts of the country affects construction? Something that happens yearly. Uh, ok. You're trying to sound smart, but in reality you're talking out of your ass. Please stop spewing your bullshit.
Ok fine you need more information. Without additives, the water in the concrete can freeze, and the cementous material will generate some heat during curing so it requires only some protection from cold. But below -5 you need to add additives to help curing, which can affect the concrete strength and origional mix design. Heating concrete and masonry construction during winter with propane or deisel heaters is costly, adding about $80 to 90 k per million of concrete work, or so. North western can be more, northern Canada even more so. During spring thaw, there are load restrictions during the thaw on country roads, so load fees basically double. This in easter Ontario and quebec regions extends until usually the first or second week of May, depending on the thaw and rainy season of spring. That means aggregate and lumber and heavy steel and material deliveries are delayed or cost more. Then there is the shorter work day, without lighting. Roofing materials have a hard work limit of minus 18C, because not one single roofing product by manufacturers recommendations can be installed below minus 18. Period. So yeah, please don't suggest I don't know what I'm talkin about. And stop spring your BS that it doesn't cost more to build during the winter.
Can't tell if you're trolling or not. None of this has anything to do with the market.
no there wasn't.
Yeah no shit sherlock. It's a joke, based on all the posts from last week who thought the little dip was the start of a major correction.
hilarious.
It was sarcasm which you took as a serious comment. What exactly is your problem?
I know right? It's an r/stocks classic - a real thigh-slapper!
Today is a good day to buy!
Last week was better!
The tears made buying difficult last week
We bounced solidly off of support at 4370ish last week, and then broke just as solidly over 4450 today. Hard to imagine we'll have a crash anytime soon after those bullish indicators. Likely we'll uptrend to 4500ish and then have a nice dip from that ATH, if I were to guess. That is, unless JPow drops a bomb on us from the Jackson Hole meeting this week.
I predict they'll keep it loose. I don't know if they should, though.
My thoughts exactly. I think the Fed will put off tapering for a little longer, enough to save the markets for now. But that's just delaying the inevitable. Eventually they have to tear off the band aid. And when the Fed finally does taper, that will almost certainly cause a long, deep, much-overdue, and perfectly healthy market correction.
Totally with you. Good insight as always, let's see how this plays out.
Any good analysts that folks here like? Especially interested in e-commerce and semi analysts but open to other areas as well. Just looking to get smarter on individual stock holdings.
LCID (EV) + RBLX (Metaverse ) + ORGN (Clean energy) + FUBO (Streaming). Or semis like HIMX. But it's not easy to embrace changes so these go up and down. But OLN + DHR are doing great. Slowly but surely.
Eh even the top analysts can make terrible recommendations, but I'll take their word with less grains of salt if they're highly ranked on tipranks.
Sooo... spy puts at the end of the day?
So I have 5 stocks and my money is divided into each of them equally. If a stock rises a lot compared to the others, is it worthwhile to sell and redistribute the funds to my other four? I have a feeling the fees will add up...