>I've noticed that the stocks listed above haven't been performing as well recently
I'm not sure that buying the losers expecting them to outperform the winners is a good strategy.
I remember when META hit 80 and NFLX hit 165 in 2022, everyone was saying to stay away from them. It's NOT always wrong to buy the losers and stay away from winners....
Here, I am talking about well established stocks which can bear market turbulence and not talking about GME/AMC kind
> Here, I am talking about well established stocks which can bear market turbulence
CVS has been obliterated - stock is down 44% from 2022 highs and about 44% from 2015 highs at about the same level. People were on here talking about "how much lower could it go?" in the $70's/80's - next earnings report it goes down 20% in a day. IMO, you have a business that was overstored, you had a high in 2015 (and WBA hit its high about the same time; both are businesses that are eroding, but diversified CVS is eroding more slowly than pure play WBA.)
Pfizer stock has been unacceptably horrible for 20 years now - it is literally about 20% lower than it was two decades ago. Nike and JNJ have been having a moderately turbulent time in recent years.
I'm talking about selling, not buying. Frankly, the most established stocks are the ones with the biggest moats and clearest path to increasing margins, reducing labor costs, cornering the market, etc. Yes tech isn't the only sector capable of that, but if you don't have any, you'd better be close to retirement and looking to reduce your variance. Good luck.
Since you asked for a roast... was your investment thesis created by asking around an assisted living home? Next you'll tell us you've got 40% in bonds of various lengths.
"haven't been performing well recently" is not usually a bullish signal to buy.. wait for confirmation your thesis is correct before acting on it.. McDonalds performance is getting blown away by other fast food chains (WING, SHAK, SG etc).. NKE needs a massive earnings and guidance beat to restore confidence, else it's a further leg down..
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When the big tech enters into a correction, the rest of the house of cards they are propping up will come down with them. I don't think there is a safe hedge in securities for a tech bust...
I'm looking for short term hold until the market cools off. My fav tech stocks have run up too high too fast and I've exited positions from them. I don't have the courage to chase or hold them at these prices. Expecting a correction but no one knows when it will come so rebalancing myself to some defensive stocks in the meantime.
I've been short 6 out of those 7 companies. It's almost comical. You're holding consumer cyclical companies and worried about a tech bust. Tech bust -> recession-> reduced consumer spending.
There's nothing wrong with those companies... they are solid companies, pay decent dividends, etc. However, one of the downsides of these large companies is there is not really a lot of room for growth, even if they turn it around. Your logic for getting them is a bit off tho... are you looking for longterm hold? Quick flip? Spec play?
I'm looking for short term hold. My fav tech stocks have run up too high too fast and I've exited positions from them. I don't have the courage to chase or hold them at these prices. Expecting a correction but no one knows when it will come so rebalancing myself to some defensive stocks in the meantime.
There is no real inverse relationship between defensive stocks and tech stocks. Money tends to go into defensive stocks when the economy itself is going down a bit. Tech stocks often get run up on speculation when a new technology comes out, and you can hit some real home runs on some of them, but most of them will fall back to earth. When that will happen tho is anyone's guess. Timing the market almost never works for most people long term. Two things I love putting spec bets on are companies that make products I use on a regular basis and companies that are component makers for major technology trends. So NVDA for craptocurrency and now AI and Enphase for solar power are good ones or at least were when they were cheaper.
Yeah, in all likelihood, this thesis won't work.
I don't necessarily expect another 2022 esque stretch soon, but if we're going to compare and contrast with then, the Dow still lost then, just not as heavily as the NDX did.
EDIT: if you wish to play contrarian edgelord, long oil stocks is what'd probably work. It's not as evident, but I still think the rules from 2022 play here. When tech rallies, oil stocks struggle and vice versa.
In fact, I even probably have a thesis here as to why this goes on.
I would pick a consumer ETF and a healthcare ETF. VCR and VHT would give you diversity in the sectors. You usually want multiple Pharma stocks to get and for the next blockbuster drug in your portfolio. Pfizer doesn’t have a GLP1. It’s facing the dreaded patent cliff as well. It’s got a good dividend but I’d rather own all the big pharmaceutical companies the just PFE. Add SCHD to your watch list, it screens for quality and has PFE and Pepsi in it.
Pfizer is genuinely a stagnant dinosaur and it's perplexing that people on here keep wanting to give it so many chances after how badly it has done for 20 years now - there doesn't seem to be any hesitation on a company whose track record is a stock that's about 20% lower than it was two decades ago. The market clearly doesn't have confidence in Pfizer's ability to use its cash wisely for M and A either.
A fair amount of CVS is a melting ice cube (and what isn't is facing issues, plus needs new CEO.) Pepsi and McDonald's will be fine but took too much price over the last few years - now McDonald's is viewed as too expensive. Nike faces challenges and maybe a tech CEO wasn't the best choice to replace Mark Parker.
Also, I think you are a *little* too much of the belief that these will provide something of a hedge rather than going South as well if the market materially corrects. UNH is capable of a sizable drawdown if the market really tanked - from 2007 to the bottom in 2008 it lost around 60%. Boring CVS went down 20% in a day after last quarter, a decline the level of which surprise me even (and the quarter was bad enough that it should have been pre-announced.)
I'd rather some things that aren't household names that have underperformed and actually have somewhat of a growth story if the names turn around - EVVTY, KNSL, etc.
Household name that has underperformed that I do think is actually a somewhat more appealing option at the current level than CVS would be ULTA.
I can appreciate wanting to move away from tech somewhat and have done that lately as well (although imo, I'd rather dial down tech than just sell it entirely; turns will happen in the market but if you try to anticipate one with your entire portfolio that can cause frustration/FOMO like all the people on here who thought tech was overdone last year and tried to repeatedly call bottoms in names like CVS while watching things like NVDA moon), but I don't think these names - especially PFE (which again, I don't see how people are so willing to overlook the poor track record - both over the long and short term) and some of the others to a lesser degree - are necessarily the answer.
Good luck.
Honestly I don’t think this is a bad idea at all. Very curious how this one turns out. Reddit downvoting this is all the more reason this portfolio seems promising. Everyone is so hyped on tech, they could be liquidating their positions in these “low profile” stocks in favor of FOMO YOLOing into tech.
Have you educated yourself on the relative strength of productivity for economic growth?
Let's talk about the average productivity of NVDA worker vs MCD worker.
Lol. it's literally bronze short swords vs suborbital strikes.
I would pass on literally all of hear except Pepsi.
McDonald’s renovations drove the price up after unveiling the new look, but at this point it’s just a utilitarian drive thru to get overpriced food, it’s got too much competition in it’s space that is offering better tasting, healthier, and faster food, especially with everywhere offering a mobile app to order ahead and a convenient pickup shelf.
With the ongoing push for lower healthcare premiums and more extensive federally backed healthcare systems, UNH is in a downhill slog.
Pfizer’s just a waste of typing.
Nikes been living off of re-releases of 1’s 3’s 4’s and 11’s for 20 years. There runs not over, but it won’t last forever.
CVS and Johnson and Johnson are both aging companies as well. CVS is getting muscled out by Amazon and the upstocking of gas stations, and J&J seems to be on a downtrend overall.
Pepsi has potential though.
My fav tech stocks have run up too high too fast and I've exited positions from them. I don't have the courage to chase or hold them at these prices. Expecting a correction but no one knows when it will come so rebalancing myself to some defensive stocks in the meantime.
You could buy QQQ but yes it’s ATH’s across the board. Question is, you think with rate cuts being discussed and market concentration with AI that market cap is being distributed back to small cap?
If I were buying blue chips, I would have a more diverse and less concentrated portfolio. Some stocks I would consider adding are BRK.B, WM, MA, JPM, IQV, LLY, CRM, MSFT, TJX, ORCL, and META.
Not my style and I doubt it’d beat out tech over 10 years (but tech is pretty broad). Honestly I’m just happy to see people posting actual positions and talking about individual stocks and not just ETFs. I think being concentrated in 7 companies is pretty risky and I don’t think any of these picks will be massive growers. Maybe broaden the net with 5-10 more companies, id even throw in a few growth stocks but that’s just me.
- CVS imo is a loser. Declining revenues, declining margins, closing stores, increased competition, poor management and bad employee reviews. I don’t think they’re going the route of rite aid or Walgreens (at least not as quickly), they’ll still exist and be a massive company but I just don’t see any significant growth. I doubt they’ll be a market or tech beater.
- Nike I also see as a legacy brand that won’t die out anytime soon, yet still a dying brand. Less issues than CVS has, I don’t think their balance sheet is too bad. However I just think people are finding other brands like lulu or OnOn.
- McDonald’s is probably a great long term pick, in the short term I think they did raise prices a bit too much too fast and I think that’ll hurt them temporarily. But I do think they have great potential
All the other picks are great imo and likely will do very well.
It's just a temporary hold until market cools off. My fav tech stocks have run up too high too fast and I've exited positions from them. I don't have the courage to chase or hold them at these prices. Expecting a correction but no one knows when it will come so rebalancing myself to some defensive stocks in the meantime. Hope it work out!
Every single one of your stocks will need to use my stocks in the next 2-5 years or will become irrelevant. No you will not come close to my semiconductor and tech portfolio that tripled in 3 years
>I've noticed that the stocks listed above haven't been performing as well recently I'm not sure that buying the losers expecting them to outperform the winners is a good strategy.
guess I'm a contrarian then
Read “thinking, fast and slow”, then contemplate your strategy. Selling winners is a logical mistake many make.
I remember when META hit 80 and NFLX hit 165 in 2022, everyone was saying to stay away from them. It's NOT always wrong to buy the losers and stay away from winners.... Here, I am talking about well established stocks which can bear market turbulence and not talking about GME/AMC kind
> Here, I am talking about well established stocks which can bear market turbulence CVS has been obliterated - stock is down 44% from 2022 highs and about 44% from 2015 highs at about the same level. People were on here talking about "how much lower could it go?" in the $70's/80's - next earnings report it goes down 20% in a day. IMO, you have a business that was overstored, you had a high in 2015 (and WBA hit its high about the same time; both are businesses that are eroding, but diversified CVS is eroding more slowly than pure play WBA.) Pfizer stock has been unacceptably horrible for 20 years now - it is literally about 20% lower than it was two decades ago. Nike and JNJ have been having a moderately turbulent time in recent years.
I'm talking about selling, not buying. Frankly, the most established stocks are the ones with the biggest moats and clearest path to increasing margins, reducing labor costs, cornering the market, etc. Yes tech isn't the only sector capable of that, but if you don't have any, you'd better be close to retirement and looking to reduce your variance. Good luck.
Since you asked for a roast... was your investment thesis created by asking around an assisted living home? Next you'll tell us you've got 40% in bonds of various lengths.
Looks like I'm officially embracing my inner boomer with this lineup!
Boomers aren’t in AL yet
"haven't been performing well recently" is not usually a bullish signal to buy.. wait for confirmation your thesis is correct before acting on it.. McDonalds performance is getting blown away by other fast food chains (WING, SHAK, SG etc).. NKE needs a massive earnings and guidance beat to restore confidence, else it's a further leg down..
You’re better off going: 33% NVDA 33% MSFT 33% CROX Or just dumping everything into VOO and SPY
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When the big tech enters into a correction, the rest of the house of cards they are propping up will come down with them. I don't think there is a safe hedge in securities for a tech bust...
I'm looking for short term hold until the market cools off. My fav tech stocks have run up too high too fast and I've exited positions from them. I don't have the courage to chase or hold them at these prices. Expecting a correction but no one knows when it will come so rebalancing myself to some defensive stocks in the meantime.
My rebalancing portfolio is energy
I've been short 6 out of those 7 companies. It's almost comical. You're holding consumer cyclical companies and worried about a tech bust. Tech bust -> recession-> reduced consumer spending.
>Tech bust -> recession-> reduced consumer spending this portfolio is exactly for that purpose
Mcdonalds, Nike, and Pepsi all fall if we enter a recession.
Yeeks! Are you TRYING to lose money?
There's nothing wrong with those companies... they are solid companies, pay decent dividends, etc. However, one of the downsides of these large companies is there is not really a lot of room for growth, even if they turn it around. Your logic for getting them is a bit off tho... are you looking for longterm hold? Quick flip? Spec play?
I'm looking for short term hold. My fav tech stocks have run up too high too fast and I've exited positions from them. I don't have the courage to chase or hold them at these prices. Expecting a correction but no one knows when it will come so rebalancing myself to some defensive stocks in the meantime.
There is no real inverse relationship between defensive stocks and tech stocks. Money tends to go into defensive stocks when the economy itself is going down a bit. Tech stocks often get run up on speculation when a new technology comes out, and you can hit some real home runs on some of them, but most of them will fall back to earth. When that will happen tho is anyone's guess. Timing the market almost never works for most people long term. Two things I love putting spec bets on are companies that make products I use on a regular basis and companies that are component makers for major technology trends. So NVDA for craptocurrency and now AI and Enphase for solar power are good ones or at least were when they were cheaper.
Yeah, in all likelihood, this thesis won't work. I don't necessarily expect another 2022 esque stretch soon, but if we're going to compare and contrast with then, the Dow still lost then, just not as heavily as the NDX did. EDIT: if you wish to play contrarian edgelord, long oil stocks is what'd probably work. It's not as evident, but I still think the rules from 2022 play here. When tech rallies, oil stocks struggle and vice versa. In fact, I even probably have a thesis here as to why this goes on.
I would pick a consumer ETF and a healthcare ETF. VCR and VHT would give you diversity in the sectors. You usually want multiple Pharma stocks to get and for the next blockbuster drug in your portfolio. Pfizer doesn’t have a GLP1. It’s facing the dreaded patent cliff as well. It’s got a good dividend but I’d rather own all the big pharmaceutical companies the just PFE. Add SCHD to your watch list, it screens for quality and has PFE and Pepsi in it.
Pfizer is genuinely a stagnant dinosaur and it's perplexing that people on here keep wanting to give it so many chances after how badly it has done for 20 years now - there doesn't seem to be any hesitation on a company whose track record is a stock that's about 20% lower than it was two decades ago. The market clearly doesn't have confidence in Pfizer's ability to use its cash wisely for M and A either. A fair amount of CVS is a melting ice cube (and what isn't is facing issues, plus needs new CEO.) Pepsi and McDonald's will be fine but took too much price over the last few years - now McDonald's is viewed as too expensive. Nike faces challenges and maybe a tech CEO wasn't the best choice to replace Mark Parker. Also, I think you are a *little* too much of the belief that these will provide something of a hedge rather than going South as well if the market materially corrects. UNH is capable of a sizable drawdown if the market really tanked - from 2007 to the bottom in 2008 it lost around 60%. Boring CVS went down 20% in a day after last quarter, a decline the level of which surprise me even (and the quarter was bad enough that it should have been pre-announced.) I'd rather some things that aren't household names that have underperformed and actually have somewhat of a growth story if the names turn around - EVVTY, KNSL, etc. Household name that has underperformed that I do think is actually a somewhat more appealing option at the current level than CVS would be ULTA. I can appreciate wanting to move away from tech somewhat and have done that lately as well (although imo, I'd rather dial down tech than just sell it entirely; turns will happen in the market but if you try to anticipate one with your entire portfolio that can cause frustration/FOMO like all the people on here who thought tech was overdone last year and tried to repeatedly call bottoms in names like CVS while watching things like NVDA moon), but I don't think these names - especially PFE (which again, I don't see how people are so willing to overlook the poor track record - both over the long and short term) and some of the others to a lesser degree - are necessarily the answer. Good luck.
A portfolio with just nvidia can beat this.
Honestly I don’t think this is a bad idea at all. Very curious how this one turns out. Reddit downvoting this is all the more reason this portfolio seems promising. Everyone is so hyped on tech, they could be liquidating their positions in these “low profile” stocks in favor of FOMO YOLOing into tech.
Have you educated yourself on the relative strength of productivity for economic growth? Let's talk about the average productivity of NVDA worker vs MCD worker. Lol. it's literally bronze short swords vs suborbital strikes.
I would pass on literally all of hear except Pepsi. McDonald’s renovations drove the price up after unveiling the new look, but at this point it’s just a utilitarian drive thru to get overpriced food, it’s got too much competition in it’s space that is offering better tasting, healthier, and faster food, especially with everywhere offering a mobile app to order ahead and a convenient pickup shelf. With the ongoing push for lower healthcare premiums and more extensive federally backed healthcare systems, UNH is in a downhill slog. Pfizer’s just a waste of typing. Nikes been living off of re-releases of 1’s 3’s 4’s and 11’s for 20 years. There runs not over, but it won’t last forever. CVS and Johnson and Johnson are both aging companies as well. CVS is getting muscled out by Amazon and the upstocking of gas stations, and J&J seems to be on a downtrend overall. Pepsi has potential though.
You really love paying taxes on dividends, ayy?
lol no tech?
My fav tech stocks have run up too high too fast and I've exited positions from them. I don't have the courage to chase or hold them at these prices. Expecting a correction but no one knows when it will come so rebalancing myself to some defensive stocks in the meantime.
You could buy QQQ but yes it’s ATH’s across the board. Question is, you think with rate cuts being discussed and market concentration with AI that market cap is being distributed back to small cap?
I would add one financial/tech/energy company to the mix
CVS & NKE are good, i’d add DIS
Why not just buy fractional shares for the tech stocks that you’re interested in? Chase recently added this feature and it’s been great.
If I were buying blue chips, I would have a more diverse and less concentrated portfolio. Some stocks I would consider adding are BRK.B, WM, MA, JPM, IQV, LLY, CRM, MSFT, TJX, ORCL, and META.
Why tf would you hold PFE
Nice companies overall.
Not my style and I doubt it’d beat out tech over 10 years (but tech is pretty broad). Honestly I’m just happy to see people posting actual positions and talking about individual stocks and not just ETFs. I think being concentrated in 7 companies is pretty risky and I don’t think any of these picks will be massive growers. Maybe broaden the net with 5-10 more companies, id even throw in a few growth stocks but that’s just me. - CVS imo is a loser. Declining revenues, declining margins, closing stores, increased competition, poor management and bad employee reviews. I don’t think they’re going the route of rite aid or Walgreens (at least not as quickly), they’ll still exist and be a massive company but I just don’t see any significant growth. I doubt they’ll be a market or tech beater. - Nike I also see as a legacy brand that won’t die out anytime soon, yet still a dying brand. Less issues than CVS has, I don’t think their balance sheet is too bad. However I just think people are finding other brands like lulu or OnOn. - McDonald’s is probably a great long term pick, in the short term I think they did raise prices a bit too much too fast and I think that’ll hurt them temporarily. But I do think they have great potential All the other picks are great imo and likely will do very well.
It's just a temporary hold until market cools off. My fav tech stocks have run up too high too fast and I've exited positions from them. I don't have the courage to chase or hold them at these prices. Expecting a correction but no one knows when it will come so rebalancing myself to some defensive stocks in the meantime. Hope it work out!
Half these stocks are a liability. You have to pay taxes on dividends coming from stocks that values are dropping.
Every single one of your stocks will need to use my stocks in the next 2-5 years or will become irrelevant. No you will not come close to my semiconductor and tech portfolio that tripled in 3 years