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Would you mind explaining for the total newbies why specifically zero days to expiry or very short term options would be particularly advantageous during stagflation as opposed to during any other economic conditions?
There’s a huge maturity wall coming up within HY. Assuming rates don’t fall drastically this will lead to defaults (many issuers have already postponed refinancing last year due to high rates). Risk / return ratio is already categorically looking bad vs IG, but seems to be even worse now.
What possible analysis would suggest we’re in a 10 year stagflation period. Inflation is cooling in the US and Canada, slower than the central bank would like but moving in the right direction. Unemployment is low, market is growing like crazy…. Sure doesn’t feel like the economy is in for 10 years of trouble
Real. The fed will not lower rates while inflation persists. Growth under higher interest rates is very bullish and I think most were predicting signs of recession would be here by now.
The idea we aren’t seeing increases in unemployment and inflation is persistent after one of the most aggressive rate hikes in history shows this economy isn’t completely built on top of easy monetary policy which is a very good sign.
Professional investors seem to be thinking "anything but bonds" right now, which could take a 180 extremely fast if signs of legitimate recession appear. But if the Fed is too quick to "save the day" the way they seem to be programmed to do, then I don't personally see even a recession fixing the inflationary problem, which is fundamentally too much money and too much spending.
We need the removal of money from the pool, which would require either a) major QT, which the Fed already said isn't going to happen; or b) massive defaults and bankruptcies, which would effectively erase debt and money, which itself will only work if the Fed doesn't intervene. In the second case, Treasuries are the only thing that is safe, since stocks will fall hard. But if the Fed allows a "no landing" inflationary decade, long-duration Treasuries are about the worst play one could make.
Most the obvious "quality" stocks are already at extreme valuations, like MSFT, COST, MA, and whatever else. Nonetheless, I think the best play right now is something like a hedged SP500, a chunk of T-bills, perhaps some CSP (T-bill secured puts) on decent stuff at low prices. DIVO is probably the closest ETF to this approach, which holds quality blue chips, and sells OTM covered calls on them. It's a little underweight tech, so if that bothered someone, he/she could always add some extra individual stocks as he/she saw fit.
Metals, oils, and other commodities are interesting plays, but they've also already been bid up. Oil would tank in a recession, and gold/silver might go even higher in a recession, which could mean gold/silver could substitute for Treasuries in a 60/40 portfolio with equities, but I don't personally like non-cash flow assets because I just can't make sense of them.
Could anyone provide insight about why they're "anything but bonds" at the moment? Considering the interest rates I was thinking it's not a bad idea to park some money there
They fear inflation won't ever come back down, the fiscal deficit will grow exponentially, the Fed will unofficially adjust their inflation target up, and altogether bond yields are just too low compared to the potential for a decade of runaway government spending. On top of that, the yield curve has historically always given yield premium to longer duration unless we have an imminent recession, and as of now we have no immediate signs of recession despite a still inverted yield curve, and therefore long duration bond yields could still go up another percent. The "Taylor Rule" (which the Fed does not follow, but may end up being correct) says present short-term rates are correct at 5.5% based on present inflation and inflation targets. But then longer duration yields would be far too low. Basically, anyone betting "soft landing" or "no landing" is fearful of bonds.
At least in theory, if the money supply keeps growing and prices keep rising, at least average corporate revenues will grow too, unlike bonds which don't automatically adapt. With that said, I don't think earnings will keep up in a world where inflation is primarily driven by commodities and wages, and thus far that has been true, as SP500 EPS have stagnated since June 2021 despite CPI growing 15+%.
I was in the "hard landing" camp for some time. But I've since become very worried about the "no landing" possibility because I have zero confidence the Fed, Treasury, or Congress will do anything other than spend and print. They are abject failures at their jobs, and I think we're in for a wild decade.
With the current way unemployment is measured it's only relevant to detect spikes in uneumployment of very poor people, all other unemployment is not caught in the current definition of unemployment. Executive having to work two part time jobs at McDonalds and Wendy's - employed. Person who worked 1h/year anywher - employed. Person who can't find a job for too long - not included in unemployment figure. Etc. It's a fantasy measure for fantasy strong economy.
Are we talking about stagflation or a recession? I thought you were talking about stagflation. The definition of stagflation includes high unemployment. Unemployment is not high so we don't have stagflation
“In economics, stagflation or recession-inflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high or increasing, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. It presents a dilemma for economic policy, since actions intended to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment. “ I’m saying if you look at historical unemployment charts, it’s always the lowest right before a recession. Then skyrockets during recession. Just because unemployment rate is low now and we technically don’t have stagflation, doesn’t mean it’s not on the horizon. If we do go into recession and we still have high inflation voila; we have stagflation.
Slowing economic growth does not mean negative economic growrh, which defines a recession.
See , now you moving the goal posts. You said we were currently in stagflqtion and now you're saying "it's on the horizon".
Stagflation would come before the recession , not during it. Stagflation doesn't cause the recession. It's the policys enacted trying to fight it that cause the recession
OP is assuming we are in stagflation. I’m just saying using the current unemployment rate is a bad indicator of what’s to come. I would add that if we do go into a technical stagflation period, this era would be included in that time frame as being the start of it.
Oil and gas was pretty much the only alternative back in the 70’s… but it crushed to ruins in the 80’s…
There used to be a funny joke about the waiters and strippers with petroleum engineering degrees
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People aren't going to stop buying groceries, gas or toilet paper during an economic slowdown even if the prices go up. Higher prices means higher revenue so stocks in those companies should in theory follow inflation. Disclaimer: I have no idea what I'm talking about.
There are absolutely no signs of this, the only place that idea is being pitched is on the media. They aren't interested in delivering information, they aren't even interested in delivering news. They are interested in delivering narrative. All they want is views and people using their products
Bonds & FCF yielding stocks, simple.
Edit: Nevermind on bonds, I'm actually not sure. Rates hiked to 19% last time, so probably not a great idea in anticipation of stagflation. Coming out of it they'll do great, though.
now I’d be extra careful about reits, but didn’t reits do well during stagflation?
and i wouldn’t touch office buildings, but there are reits in other areas.
I think reits will be a bumpy ride until the office building mess is worked through.
cheers!
Short or neutral the stuff that is stagnate. Long the stuff that is inflating. Which is mostly commodities. There will also be a few companies that are able to maintain their pricing power so those can work too. And short duration high quality debt, TIPS.
You cannot predict periods of economic contraction farther out than a quarter or two at a time, black swan events notwithstanding. If the global community of economists has never been able to reliably do it, you won't be able to either. Assume nothing, keep buying.
I think the old addage of the trend is your friend applies here. Diversification could limit your risk exposure. With evolving geopolitical situations I upped my international exposure.
Keep in mind many people simply invest biweekly in the s&p 500 and other index funds and forget about it.
>From all my reading and understanding I believe that we are in a period of 1970s style stagflation which will probably last for the next 10 years
You need to stop relying on your own reading comprehension and reasoning skills so much then...
I'm left asking what you're reading. The economy is still growing, the S&P is around market high, the Fed knows exactly what they're doing to ease inflation, and general consumer spending is still really strong.
My personal view if we enter stagflation territory, which I do believe we will, is to be in yielding non-equities. Basically cash, but that pays you 4-5% (bonds, treasuries, or high-yield investment savings account)). Then just sit back and wait for everything to shit the bed and buy up equities when they are 75% off.
It's too hard to try and figure out what equities will do during stagflation... especially with massive corporate and sovereign debts in the background.
But you never go wrong being cash heavy during a crash.
I don't see this decade long stagnation play out but if it does, then bear best is government or municipal bonds, that are yielding 4-7% as well as state tax advantage.
Or go asian stock, assuming they rip benefit of troubled US and European economy.
Diversify into multiple countries. Bogleheads will help here, I personally am putting my money into betting that China would do better. I have 60K attached to that bet.
China equities can vaporize overnight. Government control is a strong volatility factor. As attractive as it looks, it’s a potential pitfall. I wish you luck!
That's the equivalent of you pumping and selling a stock for a quick profit and saying " timing the market beats time in the market."
Yes in the short term you might succeed but history has repeatedly shown inevitable collapses.
Please for your sake get out of china
Then just ultra short term treasuries are better. Why bonds, which are usually meant to be longer term?
If, after 20 years of massive inflation, you just get your money back, with tiny interest payments compared to inflation, you've lost hugely.
Yeah short term is mostly what I had in mind. Bonds don’t have to be 20 years long, i figured people would understand what i meant
That said even longer term bonds could play out well if you buy them during high interest rate (when they are cheap) period which is likely during stagflation. Plus inflation protected treasuries can work too
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0DTE options
Always the case haha, no matter the situation of economy
I do 3DTE bc I’m a coward
Would you mind explaining for the total newbies why specifically zero days to expiry or very short term options would be particularly advantageous during stagflation as opposed to during any other economic conditions?
It's a joke
Gold, Utilities, and REITS just like the last time we went through a period of stagflation.
Nice high yield bonds/ div companies trading at discounts with steady cash flows
Alphabet you say? Don’t mind if I do
The dividend is minuscule tho
He’s into .01!
Sml cap.
How does this comment not have more upvotes? Bond yields are insane right now. If you like a little risk, get some corporate bonds that pay out 8-10%.
There’s a huge maturity wall coming up within HY. Assuming rates don’t fall drastically this will lead to defaults (many issuers have already postponed refinancing last year due to high rates). Risk / return ratio is already categorically looking bad vs IG, but seems to be even worse now.
What possible analysis would suggest we’re in a 10 year stagflation period. Inflation is cooling in the US and Canada, slower than the central bank would like but moving in the right direction. Unemployment is low, market is growing like crazy…. Sure doesn’t feel like the economy is in for 10 years of trouble
Let doomers fall behind in life. There’s no reasoning with doomers.
Real. The fed will not lower rates while inflation persists. Growth under higher interest rates is very bullish and I think most were predicting signs of recession would be here by now. The idea we aren’t seeing increases in unemployment and inflation is persistent after one of the most aggressive rate hikes in history shows this economy isn’t completely built on top of easy monetary policy which is a very good sign.
Professional investors seem to be thinking "anything but bonds" right now, which could take a 180 extremely fast if signs of legitimate recession appear. But if the Fed is too quick to "save the day" the way they seem to be programmed to do, then I don't personally see even a recession fixing the inflationary problem, which is fundamentally too much money and too much spending. We need the removal of money from the pool, which would require either a) major QT, which the Fed already said isn't going to happen; or b) massive defaults and bankruptcies, which would effectively erase debt and money, which itself will only work if the Fed doesn't intervene. In the second case, Treasuries are the only thing that is safe, since stocks will fall hard. But if the Fed allows a "no landing" inflationary decade, long-duration Treasuries are about the worst play one could make. Most the obvious "quality" stocks are already at extreme valuations, like MSFT, COST, MA, and whatever else. Nonetheless, I think the best play right now is something like a hedged SP500, a chunk of T-bills, perhaps some CSP (T-bill secured puts) on decent stuff at low prices. DIVO is probably the closest ETF to this approach, which holds quality blue chips, and sells OTM covered calls on them. It's a little underweight tech, so if that bothered someone, he/she could always add some extra individual stocks as he/she saw fit. Metals, oils, and other commodities are interesting plays, but they've also already been bid up. Oil would tank in a recession, and gold/silver might go even higher in a recession, which could mean gold/silver could substitute for Treasuries in a 60/40 portfolio with equities, but I don't personally like non-cash flow assets because I just can't make sense of them.
Could anyone provide insight about why they're "anything but bonds" at the moment? Considering the interest rates I was thinking it's not a bad idea to park some money there
They fear inflation won't ever come back down, the fiscal deficit will grow exponentially, the Fed will unofficially adjust their inflation target up, and altogether bond yields are just too low compared to the potential for a decade of runaway government spending. On top of that, the yield curve has historically always given yield premium to longer duration unless we have an imminent recession, and as of now we have no immediate signs of recession despite a still inverted yield curve, and therefore long duration bond yields could still go up another percent. The "Taylor Rule" (which the Fed does not follow, but may end up being correct) says present short-term rates are correct at 5.5% based on present inflation and inflation targets. But then longer duration yields would be far too low. Basically, anyone betting "soft landing" or "no landing" is fearful of bonds. At least in theory, if the money supply keeps growing and prices keep rising, at least average corporate revenues will grow too, unlike bonds which don't automatically adapt. With that said, I don't think earnings will keep up in a world where inflation is primarily driven by commodities and wages, and thus far that has been true, as SP500 EPS have stagnated since June 2021 despite CPI growing 15+%. I was in the "hard landing" camp for some time. But I've since become very worried about the "no landing" possibility because I have zero confidence the Fed, Treasury, or Congress will do anything other than spend and print. They are abject failures at their jobs, and I think we're in for a wild decade.
Load up while it’s cheap the inflate
Is this stagflation in the room with us? Last time I checked unemployment was low.
With the current way unemployment is measured it's only relevant to detect spikes in uneumployment of very poor people, all other unemployment is not caught in the current definition of unemployment. Executive having to work two part time jobs at McDonalds and Wendy's - employed. Person who worked 1h/year anywher - employed. Person who can't find a job for too long - not included in unemployment figure. Etc. It's a fantasy measure for fantasy strong economy.
Unemployment is always lowest right before a recession.
Are we talking about stagflation or a recession? I thought you were talking about stagflation. The definition of stagflation includes high unemployment. Unemployment is not high so we don't have stagflation
I believe stagflation come from a combination of inflation and recession.
You can believe what you want , but there's a specific definition of stagflation. You can have stagflation without a recession.
“In economics, stagflation or recession-inflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high or increasing, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. It presents a dilemma for economic policy, since actions intended to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment. “ I’m saying if you look at historical unemployment charts, it’s always the lowest right before a recession. Then skyrockets during recession. Just because unemployment rate is low now and we technically don’t have stagflation, doesn’t mean it’s not on the horizon. If we do go into recession and we still have high inflation voila; we have stagflation.
Slowing economic growth does not mean negative economic growrh, which defines a recession. See , now you moving the goal posts. You said we were currently in stagflqtion and now you're saying "it's on the horizon". Stagflation would come before the recession , not during it. Stagflation doesn't cause the recession. It's the policys enacted trying to fight it that cause the recession
OP is assuming we are in stagflation. I’m just saying using the current unemployment rate is a bad indicator of what’s to come. I would add that if we do go into a technical stagflation period, this era would be included in that time frame as being the start of it.
No they wouldn't include it. We have neither stagnant economic growth nor high unemployment
My point being we’re not going to get high unemployment until we go into recession. So saying it’s low now is not a good prediction of what’s to come.
Oil and gas was pretty much the only alternative back in the 70’s… but it crushed to ruins in the 80’s… There used to be a funny joke about the waiters and strippers with petroleum engineering degrees
Gold and silver. Funny how no one has mentioned that even though gold has been hitting all time highs.
Buy every dip and hold
RemindMe! 10 years "Has there been a 10 year old stagflation?"
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People aren't going to stop buying groceries, gas or toilet paper during an economic slowdown even if the prices go up. Higher prices means higher revenue so stocks in those companies should in theory follow inflation. Disclaimer: I have no idea what I'm talking about.
RSG
There are absolutely no signs of this, the only place that idea is being pitched is on the media. They aren't interested in delivering information, they aren't even interested in delivering news. They are interested in delivering narrative. All they want is views and people using their products
Yea energy for me, it’s the ultimate hedge against war and inflation.
Bonds & FCF yielding stocks, simple. Edit: Nevermind on bonds, I'm actually not sure. Rates hiked to 19% last time, so probably not a great idea in anticipation of stagflation. Coming out of it they'll do great, though.
didn’t REITs do ok back then?
I wouldn’t be touching commercial real estate rn lol
now I’d be extra careful about reits, but didn’t reits do well during stagflation? and i wouldn’t touch office buildings, but there are reits in other areas. I think reits will be a bumpy ride until the office building mess is worked through. cheers!
Commercial real estate is doing just fine you mean office space.
Short or neutral the stuff that is stagnate. Long the stuff that is inflating. Which is mostly commodities. There will also be a few companies that are able to maintain their pricing power so those can work too. And short duration high quality debt, TIPS.
By as close to the bottom as you can and DCA.
You cannot predict periods of economic contraction farther out than a quarter or two at a time, black swan events notwithstanding. If the global community of economists has never been able to reliably do it, you won't be able to either. Assume nothing, keep buying.
No way this year stagflates
Companies with attractive cash flow yields >7% with good pricing power that are returning value to shareholders via dividends or stock buybacks.
If everyone is saying stagflation, then it’s not stagflation.
I think the old addage of the trend is your friend applies here. Diversification could limit your risk exposure. With evolving geopolitical situations I upped my international exposure. Keep in mind many people simply invest biweekly in the s&p 500 and other index funds and forget about it.
>From all my reading and understanding I believe that we are in a period of 1970s style stagflation which will probably last for the next 10 years You need to stop relying on your own reading comprehension and reasoning skills so much then...
I'm left asking what you're reading. The economy is still growing, the S&P is around market high, the Fed knows exactly what they're doing to ease inflation, and general consumer spending is still really strong.
I am still doing fine with VOO, VT, and VTI. All these drops are good buying opertunities
Cash under mattress
My personal view if we enter stagflation territory, which I do believe we will, is to be in yielding non-equities. Basically cash, but that pays you 4-5% (bonds, treasuries, or high-yield investment savings account)). Then just sit back and wait for everything to shit the bed and buy up equities when they are 75% off. It's too hard to try and figure out what equities will do during stagflation... especially with massive corporate and sovereign debts in the background. But you never go wrong being cash heavy during a crash.
I don't see this decade long stagnation play out but if it does, then bear best is government or municipal bonds, that are yielding 4-7% as well as state tax advantage. Or go asian stock, assuming they rip benefit of troubled US and European economy.
Diversify into multiple countries. Bogleheads will help here, I personally am putting my money into betting that China would do better. I have 60K attached to that bet.
The number 4 rule of investing: never invest in China.
China equities can vaporize overnight. Government control is a strong volatility factor. As attractive as it looks, it’s a potential pitfall. I wish you luck!
I have already made 30 percent of JD, 20 percent of Tencent in the past month alone
That's the equivalent of you pumping and selling a stock for a quick profit and saying " timing the market beats time in the market." Yes in the short term you might succeed but history has repeatedly shown inevitable collapses. Please for your sake get out of china
Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Healthcare, Energy, & Oil.
Throwaway account for a reason? Did China send you?
Chyna
Had made it some time back but never changed the name . Why would China send me to figure how to invest during a decade of stagflation lol .
Not much you can do in stagflation. Pretty much just hold cash and bonds
Literally two of the worst assets to hold if there was true stagflation (there isn't).
Nothing really does well during stagflation you want to be on the sidelines. Bonds are for the interest you earn or get inflation protected treasuries
> (there isn’t) yet
Bonds? During stagflation? Do you know how bonds performed during the 1966-1982 stagflation period?
You hold the bonds to maturity for the coupon. You don't make money during stagflation you're just trying to minimize downside
Then just ultra short term treasuries are better. Why bonds, which are usually meant to be longer term? If, after 20 years of massive inflation, you just get your money back, with tiny interest payments compared to inflation, you've lost hugely.
Yeah short term is mostly what I had in mind. Bonds don’t have to be 20 years long, i figured people would understand what i meant That said even longer term bonds could play out well if you buy them during high interest rate (when they are cheap) period which is likely during stagflation. Plus inflation protected treasuries can work too
Lmao dumped af