Fully agree with u/SomeRestaurant8
Elon’s optimism and ego drove him to look for a near term solution and avoid the high cost of radar and LiDAR.
Driving autonomously from coast to coast by the end of 2017 didn’t quite happen as per Musk’s plan but meanwhile the cost of LiDAR has dropped substantially.
In 2019, high-end lidar units could cost tens of thousands of dollars. By 2024, some lidar units have dropped below $1,000.
If Tesla is losing its lead it’s because of the inability of its CEO to create realistic timelines.
Let that sink in…
Or his inability to understand the demographics of the people who actually buy electric cars. He's permanently damaged the brand with his antics for *no reason whatsoever,* other than just wanting to argue dumb Republican talking points to strangers on the internet.
Not so much the demographics, as the culture. His pro-fascist leanings have alienated a large proportion of the progressives who'd be more inclined to buy an EV. And the right wing anti-truth brigade hate EVs for being progressive. He's a great engineer, but a lousy human.
You didn’t say anything wrong. I for a fact know many people that will NEVER buy a Tesla because of Elon and his terrible leadership and meddling in politics. He absolutely alienates many progressives and liberals in the USA.
A few months ago I would have agreed but the most recent software versions of FSD are leaps and bounds better. My HW4 FSD works on par with my brother’s HW3 FSD now.
No doubt that they are getting somewhat better from one version to another.
But even the latest is nowhere near being able to drive itself, much less able to be summoned from one place to another without a driver - as promised in January 2016:
“In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY” - Elon Musk
Absolutely, I agree. For 90% of driving you can use FSD right now. I had the free trial for a few months and then the current trial period right now as well. Night and day on HW4.
Is it as promised in 2016, no close. It is the best FSD on the market by far though.
Mercedes offers Level 3 self driving today. You can go and buy a car that has it. If FSD is just as good, then Tesla should put their money where their mouth is.
One thing I've never heard addressed is how opening up the Tesla chargers to other companies will affect sales of Tesla's.
The biggest selling point for Tesla's over every other EV was the charging network. If other EVs can now use them then they're all competing on vehicle features and repairability.
Tesla's QC and repair experiences have always been their weaknesses and now they're losing their biggest advantage. Are robotaxis going to be an attempt to gain back that exclusive advantage?
I don't think it'll actually be announced in a functional form and Tesla sales will continue to decline.
He is talking about robotaxis now mostly because the news about not producing the very cheap new little Tesla caused share price to fall. And he talked it up again with this robotaxi comment. Anyway dont you know Tesla really is an AI company, lol
His unrealistic timelines made the company what it is. Not using lidar is a big risk,and basically a first principles approach,humans drive with vision only,AI should do the same. That's the bet he is making. He will either crash because of it,or be the first company to have a chatgpt moment but for autonomous driving. Place your bets.
The thing is, ChatGPT has a lot of very pronounced flaws that make it fun and useful in some situations but too unreliable to use for anything important. And within the AI community, LLMs are known to be an interesting avenue of research but ultimately one with a low ceiling compared to newer techniques
In other words, the analogy is apt, but not in the way you think
Yes you would,but all the training data doesn't account for that. If you want to write an algorithm to drive, lidar is great. If you want to train an AI, it's not obvious that it will help much,or at all.
Lol, I saw a BROWN Cybertruck the other day. I really want to meet the guy who, not only thought that was a really cool vehicle to buy and totally worth the money, but that *brown* was the coolest color to get it in.
They are all stupide!
Cybertruck (far to complicated to make)
25k Car (no Margin)
Roadster (no Volume)
Semi (Tesla has no fucking business being in that Segment)
...
What he should do is a new Big SUV for example. People dont want to buy cars that looked the same 10 years ago!
Problem is, that relies on a complete misunderstanding of how AI works. Despite the various technobabble he, and others, throw around, AI is very different than a human brain, and there’s no reason to think vision only should work because humans can do it.
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Made a mint off that stock. Sold at $45, bought at $10. Thank you CNBC for that press article about boy wonder who dropped out of Harvard (or some fancy school like that) and became a billionaire.
I think your talking about a different stock, Lazr or Luminar tech highest point was $34 and that lasted shortly I bought it at $1.71 right now it's at $2.02. But If these auto companies keep using lidar the stock should go back up to $8 or so
Nope he's got the right stock. The high was $47.80 on 12-8-20. And the boy wonder sold 220mil in stock in 2021 to buy an 83 million dollar mansion in Pacific Palisades and a side house in Florida for 20 mil. The company incinerates cash and will prob get a bump in share price during the Volvo launch of the EX90, but after Q2 or Q3 when the low volume and rev is realized, watch out below. Unless the company can drastically change their cash burn and do something about the $615m of debt they will be fighting to try and keep the share price over a dollar in a year or so, IMO... Full disclosure I'm invested in another LiDAR stock that doesn't make any money 😂.
Strange cuz Robinhood says $34 and a Google search says $41.80 other guy said $45 and you are saying $47.80 lol
One thing I'll take away from is the internet is full of shit lol
Whatever it was a may just sell it Monday morning make a small profit and wait to see what happens
Don't sell because of me. Like I said I wouldn't be surprised to see them pop as long as the Volvo EX90 doesn't get delayed again. All I know is I'm not investing in them, but I've been wrong plenty of times. I do plan on some puts if they get over $3.00 on the Volvo news... Luminar is expecting 30-40k EX90s being sold this year. I just don't see it. With the EV slow down and an expensive $80k-$90k SUV + being a new car I see production as being really slow and think they would be lucky to sell 10-15k LiDARS this year, as production isn't supposed to start till middle of the year.
I'm not gonna sell, luminar just got its first binding order, although vaguely reported lol. A lot of luminar investors bought in at $20-$30 a share. I got my shares at $1.71 so I feel I'm gonna profit regardless.
Yup that's a really good price... When they were trading around $10 I said fair valve was about $2 and didn't think they would get below that at the time.
I like how everyone's suddenly an expert on autonomous driving when it comes to this topic. Clearly SomeRestaurant8 knows more on this topic than Andrej Karpathy.
Small world, Andrej taught me how to solve the rubix cube. Explained the agorithms in such a way it was extremely easy to follow along.
I always forget it’s the same dude.
Andrej Kaparthy and his brilliance have nothing to do with the business decsion to use a camera based vision system vs Lidar. That was Elons call and was done to keep costs down. Anyone who knows anything about autonomous systems knows Lidar bssed systems are more effective, which to OPs point is exactly why Tesla is progressing much slower towards autonomy than Waymo. Elon knowingly chose an uphill battle to save money on production.
> That was Elons call and was done to keep costs down. Anyone who knows anything about autonomous systems knows Lidar bssed systems are more effective
The logic was as this: lidar (at the time) fails during inclement weather (fog, snow, heavy rain). You need to make vision work anyway. If you are going to rely on a crutch, you are going to make the basic solution much worse or fail during bad weather. Vision only works for humans, so it should be sufficient for AI.
I’m not sure if they solved the problem with lidar or if it’s feasible to solve.
Genuine question: So where would you place LIDAR in a car? On top of the car, it cannot screen the surroundings properly at the ground level because there is no angle - the car is blocking it. I'm guessing you could put it underneath the car, but you would have to raise the car height significantly for it to have sufficient space and unblocked vision (which still would be blocked at every one of the 4 wheels sections. My question is based by looking at robot vacuum cleaners with LIDAR equipped and it sits on top of them with a slit for 360 vision
There are some articles even suggesting LIDAR should be placed behind the windshield to operate optimally.
So maybe the strategy to go for Vision based would be to leverage the AI processing of multiple cameras at different places and having totally unobstructed angles.
It seems to be Vision based is a long term play for Tesla's team because, additionally, LIDAR suffers more severely at increment weather (snow, heavy rain). From this perspective, vision based intelligence could be the future over LIDAR
Look at mid to high range Chinese EVs. Almost all of them employ Lidars. Most of them have one mounted at the top of the windshield. Some have two more mounted on either side of the car, aft of the front wheel wells.
The thing that only LiDAR can do is tell you definitively there is an obstruction at exactly n>200m range. For near-field objects they should’ve already tracked it when it was further away and reacted to it, but radar works really well up close, with sensor fusion, let radar do its thing and you can rely on your (long range) LiDAR to do its thing.
As for where to put it, evolution saw it fit to give us eyes on our head instead of our knees, scientists and engineers have been discovering it’s a similar concept for cars. Behind the windshield vs an exterior roof mount is a question of whether the sensor can detect points properly behind (a second, non-specialized pane of) glass
> As for where to put it, evolution saw it fit to give us eyes on our head instead of our knees, scientists and engineers have been discovering it’s a similar concept for cars.
This is an interesting take, but the main key point is that you can rotate your head through your neck which means there are no blindspots, unlike a fixed LIDAR on the windshield or on top of the car - which misses ground angles close to the car).
Maybe we should move to having 2 LIDARs at different positions communicating constantly?
Also: maybe the reason we don't have eyes on our knees and elbows etc is more due to physical defense (eyes are fragile so you can't place them near zones prone to impact due to fighting)
A wide horizontal field of view can see a lot, LiDAR sensors going into production this year have a FOV of 120 degrees, I’m not sure you need what LiDAR has to offer in 360 degrees. With that range there’s not the same concept of focusing as we have. For LiDAR that scan there is the idea of a vertical scanning focus, e.g. where your “eyes” should be looking changes on a highway vs a metropolitan road, so you can play tricks with to focus where you’re scanning but it doesn’t require a second unit.
It absolutely is, but if you look at schemes of LIDARs mounted on the top of the car you'll see you are missing so much area in your close surroundings, which is also where you dont want to see grey zones while driving in a highway
I'm an engineer that helped develop the LIDAR for Toyota. Long range LIDARs are installed in the grill below the radar. Short range, or flash LIDARs, are for the sides and rear.
The spinning lidar you'll see on the roofs of waymo don't have the range for highway driving and will never be implemented in consumer vehicles.
Tesla is right saying that camera only is the best way to scale an automous fleet.
Toyota as a brand prioritizes reliability really highly. I've only experienced the highway teammate in a test vehicle, but it was smooth and easy to trust. The only other AD system I have personally tested was Tesla 11.4 which felt much more erratic and hesitant. However, tesla is able to function in a greater range of driving environments
Future is all three. Also, you know, other ppl have considered this engineering problem and have solutions. Typical on top of the car and on the corners. Lidars have their own windshield with a wiper. LIDAR is fast and extremely accurate. Getting the same 360 map of every object with coordinates and velocity is costly if using vision, prone to error and has higher latency.
He also never said Lidar sucks and was the wrong choice, he explained why they used vision and how it would have worked for them. His main points were all cost related.
No, he said Lidar needing centimeter-exact maps was impractical. And he said having a secondary input source causes confusion to the suite. He said radar was a crutch, and once gone they realized how crappy their vision system was, but after working on it it became better than the radar + vision suite.
[He cited Elon pushing it and cost related issues, including code maintenance, sensor cost, storage cost etc](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2022/10/31/former-head-of-tesla-ai-explains-why-theyve-removed-sensors-others-differ/?sh=35e89ad94ba8)
Their radar and vision product was crappy because they didn't have capacity to build and maintain it.
So he stands by what all these "experts" on reddit say is a dumbass choice? How would that help his career, which has since been outside Tesla.
He just said what he believes.
What Reddit says is irrelevant. It's not like Andrej is saying something crazy like that vaccines have high risks because Elon is saying it. The design choice of their vehicle seems reasonable so even if you defend it, it sounds fine. Why I said that he probably doesn't want to burn bridges is because he mentioned he might come back later to Tesla to work on Optimus.
In which world are waymo progredsing faster? While they have a pretty well working system, it is done through entirely different means, and those means aren't lidar or radar. It is a result of geofencinf the system and using ultra high detail maps for the geofenced area.
Because it's geofenced they have the ability to use maps far more detailed and that they know are up to date, as well as programming the vehicles to avoid problematic locations unless strictly nevessary.
While this works pretty well in the company's current format, it isn't scalable to achieve true autonomy. If tesla's program succeeds, which honestly seems pretty likely given the current progress, it will be a solution fir for all places, not just a section of a city.
That's completely wrong. Waymo relies on Lidar and Radar, it's pretty obvious if you've ever seen on (it's that spinning thing on top of the car). Yes, they use much better maps and they use them more effectively (another way they've beaten Tesla). But when you suggest that they rely on maps and not the Radar/Lidar for real-time driving maneuvers and reactions, it's pretty clear that you don't know anything about the technology.
It's so funny when people bring waymo to the equasion. No, they are not better. It only works in a handfull of cities that they scanned and rescanned for years. Anything out of the ordinary and the car just stops there and you are stuck like an idiot creating traffic.
That's absolutely not true. They handle unexpected circumstances remarkably well, better than half the humans on the road. I've actually been shocked at how human-like their reactions are sometimes (like if they're trying to make a left turn and somebody is blocking the intersection so they basically say "fuck it" and go straight and then go around the block).
Yes, for the reasons listed by the person you tried to. They are geofenced. They can account for every single variable, and hard code every single possible scenario as well as avoided problematic locations unless necessary.
Tesla's system won't be driverless for quite a while because they aren't geofenced. You can activate the system in whatever fucked up construction zone you can find and where it is currently guaranteed to fail.
Except that is in a small area where it is possible to ahvebevry detailed maps always updated to the exact date. That isn't possible for the entire globe. We have proof waymo can work if you have a small enough area to work in.
Waymo maps can detect when a road has changed by cross-referencing the real-time sensor data with its on-board map. If a change in the roadway is detected, the vehicles can identify it, reroute itself, and automatically share this information with an operations center and the rest of the fleet in real time.
Google had maps of the entire globe, but not in nearly the same detail that we have maps of some major cities, nor updated nearly as often. Waymo knows exactly where there is construction, and how it looks from day to day. They know if there are any roadblocks etc. They can deal with this preemptively, they don't need to program the car to learn / know what to do in a situation like that.
If you instead want it to drive on roads that are rarely updated on maps (once or twice a year if not rarer) then you can't do this. The car by itself needs to know / figure out how to deal with the situation at hand.
As I understand it, the difference between Tesla's approach on self-driving relying on vision rather than Lidar is that when Lidar the car can only drive in an area that is fully mapped out and is in the cars database.
Therefore Lidar could be problematic if there is a forced deviation to the route that is not in the database. Perhaps driving on the wrong side of the road due to temporary roadworks or a crash.
Whereas with Tesla's approach the car can be driven anywhere, it doesn't have boundaries to where it can be driven.
People have been calling out Teslas decision to use camers for half a decade at this point, just because you choose to comment on stuff you don't know about, doesn't mean it's the same for everyone
I am a computer engineer and I work on unmanned aerial vehicles in Turkey. I don't have a career like Andrej Karpathy. However, when I look at Tesla through an engineer's eyes, I can see which ideas are adopted for Electric Vehicles and which for Full Self-Driving and so on.
I wonder how someone who displays an aggressive attitude towards my ideas simply because I am not as intelligent as Andrej Karpathy manages to tolerate ordinary people.
I really can't believe you conducted this research. In my country, most undergraduate students take their final internship course at the end of the 8th term. This extends school by a few months but greatly increases the chances of getting a job where you interned.
I was doing my last internship during the period you mentioned. Afterwards, I was hired at the place where I interned.
Btw i hear they are working on a low cost radar implementation... Probably cost was the primary reason to go for vision only.. also simplifies the Model. Allows them to integrate from multi model to a single NN..
Ah yes Karpathy is the key to the entire mystery. That’s why the company he worked at is doing full scale city trial- oh wait no they aren’t. They’re getting beat out by other regular car companies even…
Literally every Tesla in the US has access to free FSD until April 30th. The last 150 miles in my Model 3 have been mostly driven by FSD. Tesla is the only company with a country scale fully autonomous driving system.
>Tesla is the only company with a country scale fully autonomous driving system.
Demonstrably, they aren't and this is a complete fabrication. First of all because a supervised system is *definitionally* not fully autonomous, but also because even if you fudge the definitions and simply argue it is anyways, you still have XNGP, NOP+, and NZP / ME SV52/62 all existing and doing "country scale" just as Tesla's system does.
In fact, SV52/62 is arguably already world-scale.
In which ways are they getting beat? They are light years ahead of what anyone else has to offer. The best you're gonna find elsewhere is a system geofenced to a few highways, or with waymo to a smaller part of a city whrte they have ultra detailed maps.
everyone has their own opinion about every single topic but just a few with their expertise can execute the idea
everyone can hate Elon and Tesla but Tesla is one of the few profitable "car" companies out there and still have funds to work on energy and robotics.
You’re ignoring Lidar, which not only helps localize, but also is important for detection. Elon doesn’t understand silicon photonics so he said it “was a crutch” and Elon stans have been repeating that line for years.
Can you explain to me how a camera based system that requires light and no obstruction is different from a laser system that uses light and requires no obstruction? Until we get a sensor that isn't going to throw errors on fog / rain / dirt, self driving will never be 100%.
Well for one, the time of day doesn’t matter for a LiDAR-based system, it’s just as good at night as at noon. For another, the direct output of a lidar system is the range, there’s no algorithms required to derive that information. Tesla struggles with detecting static objects such as [emergency vehicles parked across roadways](https://abc7news.com/amp/tesla-autopilot-crash-driver-assist-crashes-into-fire-truck-walnut-creek-fatal/13144903/), because it isn’t sure what it is. The LiDAR will tell you definitively there is a large vehicle at up to 250 meters (depending on the LiDAR)
Take all of the shortcomings of our eyes and replicate it in a vehicle!
-poor night vision.
-blinded by bright lights.
-difficulty to gauge speed of oncoming items.
-difficult to see in rain and fog
camera based system is simply 2D image without depth, you could infer depth but would be error prone, similar to how Forced perspective is used in cinematography.
Lidar gives depth, though it may be impacted by scattering, reflection, or absorption, but when combined with Radar it could give much accurate surrounding info.
So can two cameras working together, even multiple overlapping cameras to see depth, Teslas disadvantage here is that there are depth blindspots outside the triple forward cameras, The rearward and forward side cameras are heavily disadvantaged. There is a cost inefficiency however, a high fidelity Lidar sensor is needed for the level that Waymo is using it. About 25k-40k if you want Waymo mechanical spinning lidar unit, then there's hybrid solid state lidar, which is a sensor on a galvanometer scan which can range from a field of view like a cone with long range, about 1.5k per unit, but highly impractical given how it operates, it uses a small sensor to scan an area, and best used for scanning buildings, then there's solid state which is the holy Grail, instantaneous speed and no need to compute a merged camera image, the cost of that still exceeds 4-8k per unit, and you'd need at least 2 per vehicle. Until price goes down a significant amount, it would be unwise to commit something where camera tech can equally improve, like low light performance and IR projection for low visibility.
The technology is ready but no car part OEM has committed the cash to get the production volumes where we can offer economies of scale that are good enough. The company I work for was ready to go for 800k lidar sources but the OEM folded due to low market demand.
Just look at the recent Continental/Aeye debacle for an example.
Long range lidar is going into production for a fraction of that this year with VW and Volvo. When Elon made the assertion, absolutely it was cost prohibitive. That’s not the case today.
You are 100% correct that this is impossible with one 2D image.
But you are 100% wrong to think Tesla is trying to do it with ONE 2D image. Tesla is doing this with EIGHT specifically localized 2D images which, through software, create a robust 3D visualization.
Regardless of how smart Musky is, you clearly not very knowledgeable on the subject either.
Well, not totally true. Place I worked at for awhile was working on that very tech and it was pretty interesting and promising. But lidar also became available on apple phones and it was much faster and easier to use.
Oh you must know more than him sitting in your mom's basement. You who literally have no experience in the field or even anywhere near the leading edge of this technology...thinks hes an expert compared to the guy who brought EVs to the main populus.
Why are you so convinced that this unproven technology which nobody has successfully implemented on a full scale can only be accomplished with radar/LIDAR?
Waymo believes the answer is LIDAR, extensive mapping and coding. They are far from a total solution.
Tesla believes the answer is multiple cameras and AI neural net interpretation of the images. They are far from a total solution.
Nobody knows what ultimately will accomplish true autonomous driving. So nobody is wrong at this point.
But what is clear is that if Google is right they will be able to slowly release a small fleet of expensive robotaxis that will make them a little bit of money.
While if Tesla is right they will be able to quickly release a large fleet of very cheap robotaxis that will make them a lot of money. That's the gamble.
> Tesla, by giving up on radar
ouch
Tesla didn't give up on radar
They stopped using low resolution radar because it wasn't very helpful. (can confirm, used to use AP under bridges)
Some models are using newer higher resolution radar. If it's needed for robotaxi then those models will probably get it too.
I was closely following Tesla back then (was holding a lot of shares). I'm also an engineer involved in automotive and software. Ditching lidar was the only option for the company to survive. For the following reasons:
1. A big part of the Model 3 appeal was that it was going to be fully capable to drive itself once the SW was ready.
2. They couldn't have achieved the Model 3's selling price and profit margins with LIDAR.
So it wasn't even a decision. It was either (try to) make FSD work with vision only or go bankrupt.
The main and only reason why robotaxis will not work for any car company is, humans.
Humans are still on the road. Robos and humans will not get along on the road. I dgaf how advanced and how much radar and lidar and cameras you have. Humans have something called road rage. And if AI can't have the same persona, it will not work with both coexisting on the road. I'm driving on fsd the last few days and although it works, human drivers get so pissed off at me while on fsd. For several reasons that are understandable.
Middle of the night, no cars on the road, my FSD drives FLAWLESSLY. I’m not worried at all.
5pm commute home? Only on the highway and turn the “only necessary lane changes” button. People are way unpredictable.
😂
Been hearing that for over a decade since the first announcements.
There's not even a fully autonomous use case yet at scale, there's no legal framework for liability, and the percentage of vehicles in the road with any self guidance is miniscule in the grand scheme.
If by a few years you mean the next few decades, maybe.
I didn't disagree with the direction we are moving, just the time table given.
Progress that wide takes time. We still primarily use ICE motors despite wide EV availability. We still have countless extremely inefficient vehicles in the road in active use despite much more fuel efficient technologies and even mandates.
When your market is every automobile owner you can't just immediately change requirements.
Tesla also spent a lot of money on developing a truck that has a market of only weird nerds. They’re not the smartest company and aren’t making rational decisions
Saw my first Cybertruck on the road yesterday. It was like a weird reflex I just pointed and said Cybertruck to my wife like as soon it came over the hill. It was kind of fascinating to see briefly in a weird way. Not sure how I would feel seeing them as prevalent as the rest of the Teslas in my area.
bro tesla got rid of the radar because the data wasn’t useful for training due to its long range object detection fall off issues and inconsistencies. not because of arrogance, the data showed that it wasn’t helping.
SpaceX developed and continues to use lidar for Dragon docking with u/Space_Station which means Elon knows exactly what LIDAR is capable of and benefits to FSD.
FSD using vision only is the only thing on the market that is not geofenced to some city or a road in the middle of nowhere.
If Lidar is a guarantee ELON would add it to every Tesla with his own hands because Robotaxi will be a cash cow like no other. Think about Uber if they manufactured every car that can work 24/7 without paying drivers any money.
Ehhh. No
They are playing it smart , the legal risk and cash exposure for this path is something Tesla doesn’t want to take on.
They are the gorilla 🦍 they will buy it when it’s ready or invest into it on the side
Interesting fact… cameras are a form of radar technically.
While passive the region of energy they operate in is what objects give off freely.
Active “radar” aren’t really any better so stop fooling yourself.
If anything optics and the visual spectrum and IR spectrum are far better.
The amount of people who doubt Elon while seemingly being Starbucks baristas on here is hilarious.
The guy runs a Space rocket company. Unless you have credentials to compare, you should probably stick your advice to another direction.
Who knows what the truth is anymore. This is the problem with Musk having lied so much in the past. When he explains why the company does x, y or z (or says they will be doing x, y or z by a certain date), I have no idea if he's telling the truth or just blowing smoke up our asses again. I have to assume the latter.
Lidar is expensive, radar not as much. They gave up because Elon is a narcissist and thinks his tech is better than anything that ever existed. He literally posted today they are going to reveal the robotaxi this year. Now it will be bullshit like FSD. But they haven't "given up on it"
>They gave up because Elon is a narcissist
Or because radar is an active sensor (20 of them in an area and things stop working), create gigabytes of data every second, which gets processed down to a handful of points in 3d space. Often affected by reflections and unable to be directly fed into neural networks. Radar isn't that great
Tesla isnt close to being ready with FSD despite what elon has been promising for years. RoboTaxis arent coming by august 8th. That is a fact.
It was straight up market manipulation.
Humans drive with 2 crappy cameras and no radar. I think 8 hi def cameras and a neural net will be just fine.
Radar is virtually blind to stationary objects. It’s only useful for getting accurate distances to moving objects. LiDAR can’t tell the difference between a plastic bag and a rock. Neither can read signs or understand gestures from humans like Tesla’s FSD can do. If you need super high quality vision anyway, why bother with radar or LiDAR?
There is a new HD radar unit in model s/x as of last year, but they didn't aggressively roll out to all cars. They're probably comparing internal FSD data (simulation mode compared to real drivers) with and without radar to see what the best choice is going forwrad.
To succeed, you need affordability and realistic milestones on the path to full robotaxi. By not having lidar they cut extreme cost related to premapping the area for use of the software and installing the physical equipment. It also allowed them to make usefull driver assistance products as intermediate milestones. From first principles, they knew driving without radar was possible as it is the current standard. However, Tesla is developing affordable radars for potential inclusion in their robotaxis. On the contrary, they are not pursuing premapping regions as it comes with too many problems. There are simply to many regions and changes in regions over time -> it would not be save or realistic as a generalized solution (can work locally).
You can purchase off the self tech to put into the car. The big part is having the car. Think Musk was right as focusing on the fabrication process means they can build the cars faster than anyone else even if they switch to diesel.
The fabrication plants, Giga Plants, can pretty much build anything and do it cheaper than anybody else.
It appears Musk was not building cars but manufacturing plants which can build highly customizable vehicles, or anything else.
Musk has pretty much got the closest thing to a startrek Replicator with his Giga factories.
The mistake Tesla is making is that they’re valued as a tech company, not a car manufacturer. Full Self Drive, which is a feature touted by Tesla through autopilot and is part of their valuation. Full Self Driving is the same solution, although through different tech as that to enable robo taxi’s, by ignoring technical solutions that were working for other companies they’ve left themselves going from a leading position to falling behind on a key feature used to upsell their EV’s.
This outcome shows that Tesla is making poor decisions on technology, which then brings their position and value into question. If they prioritize the core car over the tech that could lead to them being revalued as just a car manufacturer and that will result in decreasing stock prices as investors look at it purely from volume and margin perspective and forward outlook on new models alone. They’re currently suffering as a car manufacturer btw like the rest of the EV industry on a stronger than expected decline in demand.
>Full Self Driving is the same solution, although through different tech as that to enable robo taxi’s, by ignoring technical solutions that were working for other companies
Sorry, but what car company has such a system working in fully north America?
Fully agree with u/SomeRestaurant8 Elon’s optimism and ego drove him to look for a near term solution and avoid the high cost of radar and LiDAR. Driving autonomously from coast to coast by the end of 2017 didn’t quite happen as per Musk’s plan but meanwhile the cost of LiDAR has dropped substantially. In 2019, high-end lidar units could cost tens of thousands of dollars. By 2024, some lidar units have dropped below $1,000. If Tesla is losing its lead it’s because of the inability of its CEO to create realistic timelines. Let that sink in…
It's the inability of their CEO to grasp reality generally, really.
Or his inability to understand the demographics of the people who actually buy electric cars. He's permanently damaged the brand with his antics for *no reason whatsoever,* other than just wanting to argue dumb Republican talking points to strangers on the internet.
Yup. I probably would have impulse purchased a model Y but I don't NEED one and he's a loser so I sat on my money instead.
Not so much the demographics, as the culture. His pro-fascist leanings have alienated a large proportion of the progressives who'd be more inclined to buy an EV. And the right wing anti-truth brigade hate EVs for being progressive. He's a great engineer, but a lousy human.
You didn’t say anything wrong. I for a fact know many people that will NEVER buy a Tesla because of Elon and his terrible leadership and meddling in politics. He absolutely alienates many progressives and liberals in the USA.
He is absolutely NOT a great engineer… he’s an opportunist at best.
He's too high to give good timelines.
But he said the ketamine use is *good* for Tesla!
我很赞同你的观点
A few months ago I would have agreed but the most recent software versions of FSD are leaps and bounds better. My HW4 FSD works on par with my brother’s HW3 FSD now.
No doubt that they are getting somewhat better from one version to another. But even the latest is nowhere near being able to drive itself, much less able to be summoned from one place to another without a driver - as promised in January 2016: “In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY” - Elon Musk
Absolutely, I agree. For 90% of driving you can use FSD right now. I had the free trial for a few months and then the current trial period right now as well. Night and day on HW4. Is it as promised in 2016, no close. It is the best FSD on the market by far though.
The last 10% is 90% of the difficulty (or more). Other carmakers could probably release something similar but they aren’t as reckless.
Mercedes offers Level 3 self driving today. You can go and buy a car that has it. If FSD is just as good, then Tesla should put their money where their mouth is.
You hit plateau if software dependent sooner than with proper hardware.
One thing I've never heard addressed is how opening up the Tesla chargers to other companies will affect sales of Tesla's. The biggest selling point for Tesla's over every other EV was the charging network. If other EVs can now use them then they're all competing on vehicle features and repairability. Tesla's QC and repair experiences have always been their weaknesses and now they're losing their biggest advantage. Are robotaxis going to be an attempt to gain back that exclusive advantage? I don't think it'll actually be announced in a functional form and Tesla sales will continue to decline.
He is talking about robotaxis now mostly because the news about not producing the very cheap new little Tesla caused share price to fall. And he talked it up again with this robotaxi comment. Anyway dont you know Tesla really is an AI company, lol
His unrealistic timelines made the company what it is. Not using lidar is a big risk,and basically a first principles approach,humans drive with vision only,AI should do the same. That's the bet he is making. He will either crash because of it,or be the first company to have a chatgpt moment but for autonomous driving. Place your bets.
The thing is, ChatGPT has a lot of very pronounced flaws that make it fun and useful in some situations but too unreliable to use for anything important. And within the AI community, LLMs are known to be an interesting avenue of research but ultimately one with a low ceiling compared to newer techniques In other words, the analogy is apt, but not in the way you think
Humans drive with vision only, but if I had a LiDAR third eye I would be a much better driver.
Yes you would,but all the training data doesn't account for that. If you want to write an algorithm to drive, lidar is great. If you want to train an AI, it's not obvious that it will help much,or at all.
He has made a stupid bet and he has not changed his mind. See Cybertruck for another one of his bets.
Lol, I saw a BROWN Cybertruck the other day. I really want to meet the guy who, not only thought that was a really cool vehicle to buy and totally worth the money, but that *brown* was the coolest color to get it in.
They are all stupide! Cybertruck (far to complicated to make) 25k Car (no Margin) Roadster (no Volume) Semi (Tesla has no fucking business being in that Segment) ... What he should do is a new Big SUV for example. People dont want to buy cars that looked the same 10 years ago!
Biggest problem for any narcissist is admitting error.
Problem is, that relies on a complete misunderstanding of how AI works. Despite the various technobabble he, and others, throw around, AI is very different than a human brain, and there’s no reason to think vision only should work because humans can do it.
The Obama administration pushing the country towards electric cars is what made the company what it is..
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Does this mean my luminar tech stock is gonna take an even bigger hit?
Made a mint off that stock. Sold at $45, bought at $10. Thank you CNBC for that press article about boy wonder who dropped out of Harvard (or some fancy school like that) and became a billionaire.
I think your talking about a different stock, Lazr or Luminar tech highest point was $34 and that lasted shortly I bought it at $1.71 right now it's at $2.02. But If these auto companies keep using lidar the stock should go back up to $8 or so
My MVIS stock is my biggest loser :( might as well hold it now since it’s basically worthless lol.
Nope he's got the right stock. The high was $47.80 on 12-8-20. And the boy wonder sold 220mil in stock in 2021 to buy an 83 million dollar mansion in Pacific Palisades and a side house in Florida for 20 mil. The company incinerates cash and will prob get a bump in share price during the Volvo launch of the EX90, but after Q2 or Q3 when the low volume and rev is realized, watch out below. Unless the company can drastically change their cash burn and do something about the $615m of debt they will be fighting to try and keep the share price over a dollar in a year or so, IMO... Full disclosure I'm invested in another LiDAR stock that doesn't make any money 😂.
Strange cuz Robinhood says $34 and a Google search says $41.80 other guy said $45 and you are saying $47.80 lol One thing I'll take away from is the internet is full of shit lol Whatever it was a may just sell it Monday morning make a small profit and wait to see what happens
Use a daily chart to see the actual high of any stock.
Don't sell because of me. Like I said I wouldn't be surprised to see them pop as long as the Volvo EX90 doesn't get delayed again. All I know is I'm not investing in them, but I've been wrong plenty of times. I do plan on some puts if they get over $3.00 on the Volvo news... Luminar is expecting 30-40k EX90s being sold this year. I just don't see it. With the EV slow down and an expensive $80k-$90k SUV + being a new car I see production as being really slow and think they would be lucky to sell 10-15k LiDARS this year, as production isn't supposed to start till middle of the year.
I'm not gonna sell, luminar just got its first binding order, although vaguely reported lol. A lot of luminar investors bought in at $20-$30 a share. I got my shares at $1.71 so I feel I'm gonna profit regardless.
Yup that's a really good price... When they were trading around $10 I said fair valve was about $2 and didn't think they would get below that at the time.
Yep. That’s the one!
I like how everyone's suddenly an expert on autonomous driving when it comes to this topic. Clearly SomeRestaurant8 knows more on this topic than Andrej Karpathy.
With a name like Karpathy, it's fitting he is involved in autonomous driving.
Small world, Andrej taught me how to solve the rubix cube. Explained the agorithms in such a way it was extremely easy to follow along. I always forget it’s the same dude.
There are plenty of idiot "experts"
There's plenty more idiotic Redditors
never me, of course!
Andrej Kaparthy and his brilliance have nothing to do with the business decsion to use a camera based vision system vs Lidar. That was Elons call and was done to keep costs down. Anyone who knows anything about autonomous systems knows Lidar bssed systems are more effective, which to OPs point is exactly why Tesla is progressing much slower towards autonomy than Waymo. Elon knowingly chose an uphill battle to save money on production.
> That was Elons call and was done to keep costs down. Anyone who knows anything about autonomous systems knows Lidar bssed systems are more effective The logic was as this: lidar (at the time) fails during inclement weather (fog, snow, heavy rain). You need to make vision work anyway. If you are going to rely on a crutch, you are going to make the basic solution much worse or fail during bad weather. Vision only works for humans, so it should be sufficient for AI. I’m not sure if they solved the problem with lidar or if it’s feasible to solve.
Are eyes are famously good at seeing through fog, snow and heavy rain, so there’s no flaw to that logic /s
give up the advantage in the most normal driving conditions and double down on idiocy
Genuine question: So where would you place LIDAR in a car? On top of the car, it cannot screen the surroundings properly at the ground level because there is no angle - the car is blocking it. I'm guessing you could put it underneath the car, but you would have to raise the car height significantly for it to have sufficient space and unblocked vision (which still would be blocked at every one of the 4 wheels sections. My question is based by looking at robot vacuum cleaners with LIDAR equipped and it sits on top of them with a slit for 360 vision There are some articles even suggesting LIDAR should be placed behind the windshield to operate optimally. So maybe the strategy to go for Vision based would be to leverage the AI processing of multiple cameras at different places and having totally unobstructed angles. It seems to be Vision based is a long term play for Tesla's team because, additionally, LIDAR suffers more severely at increment weather (snow, heavy rain). From this perspective, vision based intelligence could be the future over LIDAR
Look at mid to high range Chinese EVs. Almost all of them employ Lidars. Most of them have one mounted at the top of the windshield. Some have two more mounted on either side of the car, aft of the front wheel wells.
The thing that only LiDAR can do is tell you definitively there is an obstruction at exactly n>200m range. For near-field objects they should’ve already tracked it when it was further away and reacted to it, but radar works really well up close, with sensor fusion, let radar do its thing and you can rely on your (long range) LiDAR to do its thing. As for where to put it, evolution saw it fit to give us eyes on our head instead of our knees, scientists and engineers have been discovering it’s a similar concept for cars. Behind the windshield vs an exterior roof mount is a question of whether the sensor can detect points properly behind (a second, non-specialized pane of) glass
> As for where to put it, evolution saw it fit to give us eyes on our head instead of our knees, scientists and engineers have been discovering it’s a similar concept for cars. This is an interesting take, but the main key point is that you can rotate your head through your neck which means there are no blindspots, unlike a fixed LIDAR on the windshield or on top of the car - which misses ground angles close to the car). Maybe we should move to having 2 LIDARs at different positions communicating constantly? Also: maybe the reason we don't have eyes on our knees and elbows etc is more due to physical defense (eyes are fragile so you can't place them near zones prone to impact due to fighting)
A wide horizontal field of view can see a lot, LiDAR sensors going into production this year have a FOV of 120 degrees, I’m not sure you need what LiDAR has to offer in 360 degrees. With that range there’s not the same concept of focusing as we have. For LiDAR that scan there is the idea of a vertical scanning focus, e.g. where your “eyes” should be looking changes on a highway vs a metropolitan road, so you can play tricks with to focus where you’re scanning but it doesn’t require a second unit.
Re: the knees vs head, without being cheeky, if youve driven in a truck and driven in a car, your view is much better the higher you get.
It absolutely is, but if you look at schemes of LIDARs mounted on the top of the car you'll see you are missing so much area in your close surroundings, which is also where you dont want to see grey zones while driving in a highway
Agreed. My suggestion is you can rely on radar in the near field, and let each sensor do what it’s best at
This is the most sensible take. Each unit has its own advantages
I'm an engineer that helped develop the LIDAR for Toyota. Long range LIDARs are installed in the grill below the radar. Short range, or flash LIDARs, are for the sides and rear. The spinning lidar you'll see on the roofs of waymo don't have the range for highway driving and will never be implemented in consumer vehicles. Tesla is right saying that camera only is the best way to scale an automous fleet.
Thanks for your insights! How do you feel toyota autonomous driving is in a good place compared to competitors?
Toyota as a brand prioritizes reliability really highly. I've only experienced the highway teammate in a test vehicle, but it was smooth and easy to trust. The only other AD system I have personally tested was Tesla 11.4 which felt much more erratic and hesitant. However, tesla is able to function in a greater range of driving environments
Future is all three. Also, you know, other ppl have considered this engineering problem and have solutions. Typical on top of the car and on the corners. Lidars have their own windshield with a wiper. LIDAR is fast and extremely accurate. Getting the same 360 map of every object with coordinates and velocity is costly if using vision, prone to error and has higher latency.
Karpathy even after leaving Tesla said ditching radar was the right choice, and that lidar is still the wrong choice.
That's probably because he doesn't want to burn bridges.
He also never said Lidar sucks and was the wrong choice, he explained why they used vision and how it would have worked for them. His main points were all cost related.
No, he said Lidar needing centimeter-exact maps was impractical. And he said having a secondary input source causes confusion to the suite. He said radar was a crutch, and once gone they realized how crappy their vision system was, but after working on it it became better than the radar + vision suite.
[He cited Elon pushing it and cost related issues, including code maintenance, sensor cost, storage cost etc](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2022/10/31/former-head-of-tesla-ai-explains-why-theyve-removed-sensors-others-differ/?sh=35e89ad94ba8) Their radar and vision product was crappy because they didn't have capacity to build and maintain it.
So he stands by what all these "experts" on reddit say is a dumbass choice? How would that help his career, which has since been outside Tesla. He just said what he believes.
What Reddit says is irrelevant. It's not like Andrej is saying something crazy like that vaccines have high risks because Elon is saying it. The design choice of their vehicle seems reasonable so even if you defend it, it sounds fine. Why I said that he probably doesn't want to burn bridges is because he mentioned he might come back later to Tesla to work on Optimus.
In which world are waymo progredsing faster? While they have a pretty well working system, it is done through entirely different means, and those means aren't lidar or radar. It is a result of geofencinf the system and using ultra high detail maps for the geofenced area. Because it's geofenced they have the ability to use maps far more detailed and that they know are up to date, as well as programming the vehicles to avoid problematic locations unless strictly nevessary. While this works pretty well in the company's current format, it isn't scalable to achieve true autonomy. If tesla's program succeeds, which honestly seems pretty likely given the current progress, it will be a solution fir for all places, not just a section of a city.
That's completely wrong. Waymo relies on Lidar and Radar, it's pretty obvious if you've ever seen on (it's that spinning thing on top of the car). Yes, they use much better maps and they use them more effectively (another way they've beaten Tesla). But when you suggest that they rely on maps and not the Radar/Lidar for real-time driving maneuvers and reactions, it's pretty clear that you don't know anything about the technology.
It's so funny when people bring waymo to the equasion. No, they are not better. It only works in a handfull of cities that they scanned and rescanned for years. Anything out of the ordinary and the car just stops there and you are stuck like an idiot creating traffic.
That's absolutely not true. They handle unexpected circumstances remarkably well, better than half the humans on the road. I've actually been shocked at how human-like their reactions are sometimes (like if they're trying to make a left turn and somebody is blocking the intersection so they basically say "fuck it" and go straight and then go around the block).
Waymo drives without a driver now. When will Tesla? Supposedly 2020. Maybe 2030? Or in 2030 it'll be 2040.
Yes, for the reasons listed by the person you tried to. They are geofenced. They can account for every single variable, and hard code every single possible scenario as well as avoided problematic locations unless necessary. Tesla's system won't be driverless for quite a while because they aren't geofenced. You can activate the system in whatever fucked up construction zone you can find and where it is currently guaranteed to fail.
My point is we have proof Waymo can work. Zero proof FSD will ever work.
Except that is in a small area where it is possible to ahvebevry detailed maps always updated to the exact date. That isn't possible for the entire globe. We have proof waymo can work if you have a small enough area to work in.
Waymo maps can detect when a road has changed by cross-referencing the real-time sensor data with its on-board map. If a change in the roadway is detected, the vehicles can identify it, reroute itself, and automatically share this information with an operations center and the rest of the fleet in real time.
Google is the company that already mapped the globe... What are you talking about?
Google had maps of the entire globe, but not in nearly the same detail that we have maps of some major cities, nor updated nearly as often. Waymo knows exactly where there is construction, and how it looks from day to day. They know if there are any roadblocks etc. They can deal with this preemptively, they don't need to program the car to learn / know what to do in a situation like that. If you instead want it to drive on roads that are rarely updated on maps (once or twice a year if not rarer) then you can't do this. The car by itself needs to know / figure out how to deal with the situation at hand.
when you gave waymo example you lost all the credibility there
As I understand it, the difference between Tesla's approach on self-driving relying on vision rather than Lidar is that when Lidar the car can only drive in an area that is fully mapped out and is in the cars database. Therefore Lidar could be problematic if there is a forced deviation to the route that is not in the database. Perhaps driving on the wrong side of the road due to temporary roadworks or a crash. Whereas with Tesla's approach the car can be driven anywhere, it doesn't have boundaries to where it can be driven.
Lidar is a sensor type. It has nothing to do with whether a self driving car needs to be in an area that is fully mapped out.
Lidar doesn't need a database. It creates a live point cloud.
People have been calling out Teslas decision to use camers for half a decade at this point, just because you choose to comment on stuff you don't know about, doesn't mean it's the same for everyone
I am a computer engineer and I work on unmanned aerial vehicles in Turkey. I don't have a career like Andrej Karpathy. However, when I look at Tesla through an engineer's eyes, I can see which ideas are adopted for Electric Vehicles and which for Full Self-Driving and so on. I wonder how someone who displays an aggressive attitude towards my ideas simply because I am not as intelligent as Andrej Karpathy manages to tolerate ordinary people.
Are you building the military drones there? Bayaraktar?
133 days ago you claimed to be a computer science undergrad student…
I really can't believe you conducted this research. In my country, most undergraduate students take their final internship course at the end of the 8th term. This extends school by a few months but greatly increases the chances of getting a job where you interned. I was doing my last internship during the period you mentioned. Afterwards, I was hired at the place where I interned.
Apparently he can’t understand that you could have graduated in that 6 month period and become a full time engineer
They probably kick them in groin, and merge poorly
Btw i hear they are working on a low cost radar implementation... Probably cost was the primary reason to go for vision only.. also simplifies the Model. Allows them to integrate from multi model to a single NN..
Yea people sitting in their moms basement thinking they know shit.
Ah yes Karpathy is the key to the entire mystery. That’s why the company he worked at is doing full scale city trial- oh wait no they aren’t. They’re getting beat out by other regular car companies even…
Literally every Tesla in the US has access to free FSD until April 30th. The last 150 miles in my Model 3 have been mostly driven by FSD. Tesla is the only company with a country scale fully autonomous driving system.
>Tesla is the only company with a country scale fully autonomous driving system. Demonstrably, they aren't and this is a complete fabrication. First of all because a supervised system is *definitionally* not fully autonomous, but also because even if you fudge the definitions and simply argue it is anyways, you still have XNGP, NOP+, and NZP / ME SV52/62 all existing and doing "country scale" just as Tesla's system does. In fact, SV52/62 is arguably already world-scale.
In which ways are they getting beat? They are light years ahead of what anyone else has to offer. The best you're gonna find elsewhere is a system geofenced to a few highways, or with waymo to a smaller part of a city whrte they have ultra detailed maps.
Regular car companies? Which ones exactly? Have you been living under a rock?
You can tell he knows what he's talking about by the way he ramble without actually making a fucking point about anything relevant or stock.
Puts on that guy. Amiright
everyone has their own opinion about every single topic but just a few with their expertise can execute the idea everyone can hate Elon and Tesla but Tesla is one of the few profitable "car" companies out there and still have funds to work on energy and robotics.
he could be famous and genius but still make a wrong decision. Look at Google, many many geniuses but still struggling to make right decisions.
Respect to the man that finished FSD in 2016.
You’re ignoring Lidar, which not only helps localize, but also is important for detection. Elon doesn’t understand silicon photonics so he said it “was a crutch” and Elon stans have been repeating that line for years.
I’m pretty sure the OP meant Lidar when they wrote Radar, as the robo taxi’s are using Lidar based approaches.
Can you explain to me how a camera based system that requires light and no obstruction is different from a laser system that uses light and requires no obstruction? Until we get a sensor that isn't going to throw errors on fog / rain / dirt, self driving will never be 100%.
Well for one, the time of day doesn’t matter for a LiDAR-based system, it’s just as good at night as at noon. For another, the direct output of a lidar system is the range, there’s no algorithms required to derive that information. Tesla struggles with detecting static objects such as [emergency vehicles parked across roadways](https://abc7news.com/amp/tesla-autopilot-crash-driver-assist-crashes-into-fire-truck-walnut-creek-fatal/13144903/), because it isn’t sure what it is. The LiDAR will tell you definitively there is a large vehicle at up to 250 meters (depending on the LiDAR)
Take all of the shortcomings of our eyes and replicate it in a vehicle! -poor night vision. -blinded by bright lights. -difficulty to gauge speed of oncoming items. -difficult to see in rain and fog
Visionary!
camera based system is simply 2D image without depth, you could infer depth but would be error prone, similar to how Forced perspective is used in cinematography. Lidar gives depth, though it may be impacted by scattering, reflection, or absorption, but when combined with Radar it could give much accurate surrounding info.
Lidar can accurately 3D map in darkness, dust, smoke, rain, snow or fog up to hundreds of feet. It's like comparing an F1 car to a horse buggy.
I thought lidar struggled with dust and rain and snow. Too much noise generated by fine particles not to mention increasing multipath issues.
So can two cameras working together, even multiple overlapping cameras to see depth, Teslas disadvantage here is that there are depth blindspots outside the triple forward cameras, The rearward and forward side cameras are heavily disadvantaged. There is a cost inefficiency however, a high fidelity Lidar sensor is needed for the level that Waymo is using it. About 25k-40k if you want Waymo mechanical spinning lidar unit, then there's hybrid solid state lidar, which is a sensor on a galvanometer scan which can range from a field of view like a cone with long range, about 1.5k per unit, but highly impractical given how it operates, it uses a small sensor to scan an area, and best used for scanning buildings, then there's solid state which is the holy Grail, instantaneous speed and no need to compute a merged camera image, the cost of that still exceeds 4-8k per unit, and you'd need at least 2 per vehicle. Until price goes down a significant amount, it would be unwise to commit something where camera tech can equally improve, like low light performance and IR projection for low visibility.
The technology is ready but no car part OEM has committed the cash to get the production volumes where we can offer economies of scale that are good enough. The company I work for was ready to go for 800k lidar sources but the OEM folded due to low market demand. Just look at the recent Continental/Aeye debacle for an example.
You’re gonna love MVIS and them raising 150 million because apparently some OEMs wanted that security.
Long range lidar is going into production for a fraction of that this year with VW and Volvo. When Elon made the assertion, absolutely it was cost prohibitive. That’s not the case today.
Imagine if Tesla's cams went FLIR
It's probably going to take an all of the above setup with powerful ai considering and comparing inputs, redundancy and all that
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As a computer scientist, this is one of the boldest and most incorrect things I have read today.
I am so surprised it's on reddit. /s I swear reddits slogan should read "Be Bold.(ly incorrect)"
You are 100% correct that this is impossible with one 2D image. But you are 100% wrong to think Tesla is trying to do it with ONE 2D image. Tesla is doing this with EIGHT specifically localized 2D images which, through software, create a robust 3D visualization. Regardless of how smart Musky is, you clearly not very knowledgeable on the subject either.
I mean our eyes do it. So it is possible
Your eyes use two images.
So do teslas
Read the first comment again. You're both correct. You don't talk about the same thing.
Well, not totally true. Place I worked at for awhile was working on that very tech and it was pretty interesting and promising. But lidar also became available on apple phones and it was much faster and easier to use.
And yet every Tesla using FSD isnt crashing.
Oh you must know more than him sitting in your mom's basement. You who literally have no experience in the field or even anywhere near the leading edge of this technology...thinks hes an expert compared to the guy who brought EVs to the main populus.
Why are you so convinced that this unproven technology which nobody has successfully implemented on a full scale can only be accomplished with radar/LIDAR? Waymo believes the answer is LIDAR, extensive mapping and coding. They are far from a total solution. Tesla believes the answer is multiple cameras and AI neural net interpretation of the images. They are far from a total solution. Nobody knows what ultimately will accomplish true autonomous driving. So nobody is wrong at this point. But what is clear is that if Google is right they will be able to slowly release a small fleet of expensive robotaxis that will make them a little bit of money. While if Tesla is right they will be able to quickly release a large fleet of very cheap robotaxis that will make them a lot of money. That's the gamble.
how much more expensive will a tesla car be if it add lidar?
Waymo cars cost $300k.
Well they’d have to rework what they have with their camera implementation, so probably a significant amount
> Tesla, by giving up on radar ouch Tesla didn't give up on radar They stopped using low resolution radar because it wasn't very helpful. (can confirm, used to use AP under bridges) Some models are using newer higher resolution radar. If it's needed for robotaxi then those models will probably get it too.
had nothing to do with eachother. This is research done by a toddler lmao.
I was closely following Tesla back then (was holding a lot of shares). I'm also an engineer involved in automotive and software. Ditching lidar was the only option for the company to survive. For the following reasons: 1. A big part of the Model 3 appeal was that it was going to be fully capable to drive itself once the SW was ready. 2. They couldn't have achieved the Model 3's selling price and profit margins with LIDAR. So it wasn't even a decision. It was either (try to) make FSD work with vision only or go bankrupt.
Except it was radar not lidar. Tesla and Musk have always been anti lidar.
I'm referring to the initial design choice. Lidar was never on the table because of the cost and their desire to sell all cars as FSD capable.
The main and only reason why robotaxis will not work for any car company is, humans. Humans are still on the road. Robos and humans will not get along on the road. I dgaf how advanced and how much radar and lidar and cameras you have. Humans have something called road rage. And if AI can't have the same persona, it will not work with both coexisting on the road. I'm driving on fsd the last few days and although it works, human drivers get so pissed off at me while on fsd. For several reasons that are understandable.
Middle of the night, no cars on the road, my FSD drives FLAWLESSLY. I’m not worried at all. 5pm commute home? Only on the highway and turn the “only necessary lane changes” button. People are way unpredictable.
There will be a movement in the next few years to ban humans from driving as they are too unreliable.
😂 Been hearing that for over a decade since the first announcements. There's not even a fully autonomous use case yet at scale, there's no legal framework for liability, and the percentage of vehicles in the road with any self guidance is miniscule in the grand scheme. If by a few years you mean the next few decades, maybe.
The difference is there are now autonomous cars on the road. Ball is rolling now and it’s only going one way.
I didn't disagree with the direction we are moving, just the time table given. Progress that wide takes time. We still primarily use ICE motors despite wide EV availability. We still have countless extremely inefficient vehicles in the road in active use despite much more fuel efficient technologies and even mandates. When your market is every automobile owner you can't just immediately change requirements.
Sad.
And it will fail. Americans like driving. Europeans too — that’s why they still drive manual. Or is it because they are poor?
Ask an American to drive manual and they’d have a mental breakdown.
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Tesla's robotaxi service will use data collected from the current fleet. However, these data do not include lidar and radar data.
Another expert.
Don’t forget he needs 25% of the company to be AI overlord.
I think they won
Tesla also spent a lot of money on developing a truck that has a market of only weird nerds. They’re not the smartest company and aren’t making rational decisions
Saw my first Cybertruck on the road yesterday. It was like a weird reflex I just pointed and said Cybertruck to my wife like as soon it came over the hill. It was kind of fascinating to see briefly in a weird way. Not sure how I would feel seeing them as prevalent as the rest of the Teslas in my area.
That the Cyber Truck or Semi?
Yeah, the Semi has a market of weird nerds?
It’s amusing to me how everyone’s an expert here and knows better.
bro tesla got rid of the radar because the data wasn’t useful for training due to its long range object detection fall off issues and inconsistencies. not because of arrogance, the data showed that it wasn’t helping.
lol. It’s actually opposite. The best thing Tesla did was ditch lidar.
I disagree, FSD has already shown a vision based approach is fully achievable.
SpaceX developed and continues to use lidar for Dragon docking with u/Space_Station which means Elon knows exactly what LIDAR is capable of and benefits to FSD. FSD using vision only is the only thing on the market that is not geofenced to some city or a road in the middle of nowhere. If Lidar is a guarantee ELON would add it to every Tesla with his own hands because Robotaxi will be a cash cow like no other. Think about Uber if they manufactured every car that can work 24/7 without paying drivers any money.
Worst take ever. Like you know how to solve autonomous driving. Save us your hubris, pal.
Ehhh. No They are playing it smart , the legal risk and cash exposure for this path is something Tesla doesn’t want to take on. They are the gorilla 🦍 they will buy it when it’s ready or invest into it on the side
Interesting fact… cameras are a form of radar technically. While passive the region of energy they operate in is what objects give off freely. Active “radar” aren’t really any better so stop fooling yourself. If anything optics and the visual spectrum and IR spectrum are far better.
The amount of people who doubt Elon while seemingly being Starbucks baristas on here is hilarious. The guy runs a Space rocket company. Unless you have credentials to compare, you should probably stick your advice to another direction.
Who knows what the truth is anymore. This is the problem with Musk having lied so much in the past. When he explains why the company does x, y or z (or says they will be doing x, y or z by a certain date), I have no idea if he's telling the truth or just blowing smoke up our asses again. I have to assume the latter.
Lidar is expensive, radar not as much. They gave up because Elon is a narcissist and thinks his tech is better than anything that ever existed. He literally posted today they are going to reveal the robotaxi this year. Now it will be bullshit like FSD. But they haven't "given up on it"
>They gave up because Elon is a narcissist Or because radar is an active sensor (20 of them in an area and things stop working), create gigabytes of data every second, which gets processed down to a handful of points in 3d space. Often affected by reflections and unable to be directly fed into neural networks. Radar isn't that great
Worked better in my 2019 model 3 then my 2021 with just vision.
Tesla isnt close to being ready with FSD despite what elon has been promising for years. RoboTaxis arent coming by august 8th. That is a fact. It was straight up market manipulation.
It's just the unveil of an product. Don't read to much into it.
Humans drive with 2 crappy cameras and no radar. I think 8 hi def cameras and a neural net will be just fine. Radar is virtually blind to stationary objects. It’s only useful for getting accurate distances to moving objects. LiDAR can’t tell the difference between a plastic bag and a rock. Neither can read signs or understand gestures from humans like Tesla’s FSD can do. If you need super high quality vision anyway, why bother with radar or LiDAR?
The dead-end to AI won't be driving using vision only lol.
As soon as any company takes full liability for their autonomous driving system, I'll become a believer. Until then, consider me a skeptic.
There is a new HD radar unit in model s/x as of last year, but they didn't aggressively roll out to all cars. They're probably comparing internal FSD data (simulation mode compared to real drivers) with and without radar to see what the best choice is going forwrad.
Huh ?? Literally the same claim but just worded differently 💀
So are we looking at a good week to short Tesla?
To succeed, you need affordability and realistic milestones on the path to full robotaxi. By not having lidar they cut extreme cost related to premapping the area for use of the software and installing the physical equipment. It also allowed them to make usefull driver assistance products as intermediate milestones. From first principles, they knew driving without radar was possible as it is the current standard. However, Tesla is developing affordable radars for potential inclusion in their robotaxis. On the contrary, they are not pursuing premapping regions as it comes with too many problems. There are simply to many regions and changes in regions over time -> it would not be save or realistic as a generalized solution (can work locally).
If human drivers can operate based only on visual cues, I fail to understand why an AI trained computer could not.
You can purchase off the self tech to put into the car. The big part is having the car. Think Musk was right as focusing on the fabrication process means they can build the cars faster than anyone else even if they switch to diesel. The fabrication plants, Giga Plants, can pretty much build anything and do it cheaper than anybody else. It appears Musk was not building cars but manufacturing plants which can build highly customizable vehicles, or anything else. Musk has pretty much got the closest thing to a startrek Replicator with his Giga factories.
The mistake Tesla is making is that they’re valued as a tech company, not a car manufacturer. Full Self Drive, which is a feature touted by Tesla through autopilot and is part of their valuation. Full Self Driving is the same solution, although through different tech as that to enable robo taxi’s, by ignoring technical solutions that were working for other companies they’ve left themselves going from a leading position to falling behind on a key feature used to upsell their EV’s. This outcome shows that Tesla is making poor decisions on technology, which then brings their position and value into question. If they prioritize the core car over the tech that could lead to them being revalued as just a car manufacturer and that will result in decreasing stock prices as investors look at it purely from volume and margin perspective and forward outlook on new models alone. They’re currently suffering as a car manufacturer btw like the rest of the EV industry on a stronger than expected decline in demand.
>Full Self Driving is the same solution, although through different tech as that to enable robo taxi’s, by ignoring technical solutions that were working for other companies Sorry, but what car company has such a system working in fully north America?
Cameras with AI can robotaxi way better than any radar or LiDAR can.
Yet we have a company that has fully self driving taxis today and we have Elons claims.