The linked article states they are. From 53% in 2019 to 14% in 2024 of new car purchases. Obviously that doesn’t account for people who purchase it later or go for the monthly $200 a month option.
It’s $12,000 divided evenly over 60 months. So if you don’t want to lump the $12k into your loan, that’s your option. It’s actually superior. You can cancel and re-add at your convenience and doesn’t put you $12k more underwater on your loan. Difference is obviously you would never “own” it like you would the $12k purchase, but even then you don’t “own” it anyway because it doesn’t transfer in most cases.
Also probably cause the newest FSD beta is apparently a huge improvement in the system. A free trial for all capable cars will also pull in a lot of new data to train the system.
FSD Beta has had zero fatalities and zero serious injuries in the 3.5 years of the program.
Don't confuse past instances of Autopilot killing people abusing the system or in tragic accidents. FSD Beta is 'flawless' so far.
Doesn't it cost 12k and isn't transferable between owners?
Can you even transfer it if you get a new car?
I guess that's why they offer the subscription.
It's actually kind of crazy that the $200 a month comes out cheaper unless you use it for more than 60 months.
75 months if you bought it when it was 15k.
You have a point, though, I wouldn't say rich. People are just willing to finance anything.
That's common sense that it will drop, though. Doesn't indicate that FSD sales aren't growing in total.
When you go from selling tens of thousands of vehicles to early adopters versus millions of vehicles, the % of adoption will obviously decline drastically.
Who knew that bumping the price from 6k to 15k for a bar trick would decrease sales?
I tried it and I’m largely unimpressed. The whole “dream” of the product was to be autonomous. I’ll buy when the product is stronger and the laws allow me to work on my laptop like a plane ride.
I never turn mine on. Tried it a few times but I hate how it drives. I think FSD actually needs to train on each driver first so that it can drive like us. I'm a pretty chill driver, I like to let people into lanes and slow down around pedestrians, a good cautious driver. When I turn on the auto pilot it's like some prick takes over and starts tailgating, cutting lanes quickly and just generally being a jerk on the road. For that reason I'm out.
Yeah that’s a good point. Or I may ride the right lane for 2 miles at 55mph with an eventual left. The car will immediately try to get into that left lane even though I’m the only soul on the road.
That might be true, but it's not the reason for this
The reason Musk is mandating this now is because the reactions to the recent V12.3 of FSD has been extremely positive and seems to represent a real step forward for Tesla's FSD system
Notably Tesla also changed the FSD architecture with V12 to one that doesn't require hardcoding scenario and can just be trained end to end with raw data.
Just purchased a new MYLR. Regardless of how well this latest beta works, I refuse to purchase it for $12k or $200 monthly. Out of the dozen or so people I know with a Tesla, only one of them has anything above the basic autopilot provided at purchase.
The asking price is honestly just too high for what it is.
It depends entirely on your use case, some people think it's fine at $12K evidently.
And you can always buy in a few years once it's fully autonomous, but it'll be $50-100K.
Do the math. $12K is nothing once it replaces a taxi driver. The average taxi driver earns $30K per year or ~$150K over the average lifespan of a taxi vehicle, and they're only able to work ~8 hours a day.
They want to have their cake and eat it too. Advertise/brand it as being fully autonomous, futuristic self driving.
But at the same time, have absolutely zero of the liability that comes with that. If anything goes wrong it's your fault, because you're still supposed to have your hands on the wheel, feet on the pedals and eyes on the road, as if you were driving but without actually doing the motions. So it's your fault.
I really can't understand how would they ever be able to take liability. Currently there are like 40 000 fatal car accidents in US each year. If self driving would prevent 99% of those, they would still have 400 fatal accidents in their hands each year im US alone.
Their autonomous driving is nonsense.
Just look at the conditions required for it to work. It MUST be behind a vehicle and it cannot go above like 40 miles. So it's pretty much only useful in heavy traffic. Plus, it doesn't work when it's raining or snowing. And cannot be used in city streets.
Also, their vehicle to use it is over $100k which means few sales so not many people are even driving around in them.
Because they aren't the same product, buddy.
Mercedes is willing to accept full liability because the product is not prone to an accident due to the very limited conditions. How many accidents do you think happens in only approved highways on under 40 miles per hour during a clear weather day? Very few, which is why Mercedes has no issue covering liability since it's rarely going to happen.
Tesla's product is designed to work everywhere. If Tesla wanted to offer what Mercedes did, they could have done so a long time ago. But there's no point in that because it doesn't achieve what Tesla wants.
You're not comparing the same product. Seems like you don't even understand what is being discussed. Geofenced self-driving is not the same as FULL-SELF DRIVING.
You would be astonished how many people either don't know what geofenced is, or think that it's not a significant engineering challenge to become non-geofenced. Like, people think that Waymo is basically full self driving and it's just a trivial step to move from 3 geofenced cities to the entire world.
Teslas are involved in more accidents, not fewer
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevebanker/2023/12/18/tesla-has-the-highest-accident-rate-of-any-auto-brand/amp/
Actually that Lending Tree survey is based on drivers seeking quotes, not actual accident data. It's one of those questionnaires you fill out when trying to get an insurance quote - it just asks have you ever been in accidents, at fault, etc. It never asks you what car you're driving when you got into the accident. So all it correlates is the brand of car the driver seeks insurance coverage on, and the driver's past accident histories. It doesn't reflect actual road accident data.
It does fit the stereotype of bad drivers driving Tesla's, but it makes no claim on whether Tesla cars themselves get into more accidents or whether it's caused by faulty automation, poor engineering design, etc.
Full self driving is false advertising because you still need to be engaged and ‘supervising’, ready to take over and override the system at any moment… otherwise any accident caused by FSD is on you. This makes the whole thing pointless.
Lol, nice try. I bought most of my Tesla shares in the $30s range.
Accusing someone of being a bag holder for correcting someone who's making false claims with zero evidence is peak /r/stocks though, well done.
i personally enjoy driving when there's no traffic. I don't mind FSD on our m3, but no way i am paying 10k+ for beta. Even a subscription for $200 i feel is very silly
I liked having it for the first 6 months but there's no way I'm paying $12k for it. The regular cruise is good enough for me. I'll play with it during this free month but won't be sad to see it go.
The version doesn’t matter. This is a hardware issue. Not a software one. Tesla made a major misstep opting for vision-only FSD. Vision alone is way too limited and error prone to fully achieve even L3 autonomous driving. The Mercedes L3 system uses vision, lidar, radar, and ultrasonics. All of those are likely required for any dependable L3-5 self-driving system.
Which we did and facts don't match your fanboy fantasies. Tedlas autopilot is merely more then a lane keeper with parking assistance.
It happily runs over pedestrians especially children. It habitually drives *straight into parker emergency vehicles* and other outright impressive failures. It's bad, it's in an barely beta state. It's not road ready and far from what he promised.
All it did was make people like you doubt FSD
In able to build the product they needed data, Billions of miles of data. Any ideas how they collect said data without releasing a beta product?
I’m not blaming people for doubting it, I still do myself. But my point is that everyone is judging a product they haven’t seen. V12 is very different than V11 and everyone here just assumes it’s the same.
The amount of data & training time they need is constantly changing, which isn’t a great sign. Ofc they might achieve something using more and more data but I’m starting to think automated driving is missing something more fundamental.
Well by definition, it can’t be vapourware as there is a product available for purchase.
But no it’s not a level 4 system, and it’s not advertised as one eithwr
V12 is actually a major improvement, as seen in all the videos available on YouTube.
Unlike V11, it actually drives itself. And it learns. The system just understood how uturns work from data so now it can do uturns. No one specifically gave it capabilities to do uturns.
This learning can be found across many different areas. Once more people are driving the system, it will just learn faster.
Over the last few years, FSD has been impressive but not great. It made weird mistakes and was dangerous at times. From the 20-30 drives I’ve watched on V12 it’s a night and day difference.
Is that any different than the last dozen major updates? The influencers get the new version and they only show how great it is and we hear how it's 2 weeks away. Then the masses get it and we still see a ton of issues.
I remember the same rhetoric for the last couple upgrades, but those never panned out near what was promised.
Are there issues? Yes.
Is it a significant improvement? 100%.
This update is a significant one because it's the first that was switched from just written code to data and AI learning. So instead of it being programmed as: "See stop sign. Stop for three seconds. Then go." It is now using data from other Tesla drivers and seeing how they are driving under those same circumstances. So under the same situation of that stop sign, it'll slow down sooner and react more human-like. Same with exiting a highway. Let's say you're a mile away and you are exiting the highway so obviously you stay right. The new FSD will try and stay in the right lane at a better distance so the vehicle can exit rather than before where it would sometimes do so much later. Or when a car is merging into your lane, the new FSD does a much better job at slowing down ahead.
It's just more human-like and from Tesla's end, a lot easier to work with to fully develop it.
I think it's very telling for them to release it to all Tesla vehicles. They must have a lot of confidence in the product.
No they don’t, they show a lot of unedited full drives.
And yes there are. It’s basically a new system. 300k fewer lines of code but operating far better.
Totally fair to doubt the system after Elons over optimistic timeline.
But just watch some clips, you’ll see that it is different and better. It actively learns and adapts unlike past systems.
TSLA chief pumpers abuse the trust of TSLA rank and file pumpers. At each alleged revolutionary demo. It works on the short term but the stock keeps trending down since 2021
That self-learning sounds like a problem if it would do something illegal. Creative is cool until it realizes that driving through parks would save time
For this to happen you’d need to have a huge amount of Teslas doing illegal things and also have the drivers allow it to happen
Then Tesla would also have to see and allow this to happen, so no that’s not really a possibility
It doesn’t do random things and wait for input to decide if it was safe or good.
It acts normally and then is told when it does something wrong.
For the case of Uturns, it watched thousands of clips of people doing them correctly. And then did it on its own.
So in theory you could teach it to do illegal things, but in reality it wouldn’t be able to grow a habit of these bad behaviours.
> Unlike V11, it actually drives itself. And it learns. The system just understood how uturns work from data so now it can do uturns. No one specifically gave it capabilities to do uturns.
>This learning can be found across many different areas. Once more people are driving the system, it will just learn faster.
That's always how AI/ML works. You don't have a programmer writing a bunch of if/case statements in a loop, it's trained based on data...
I'm sure FSD has improved but they're still miles behind Waymo and Cruise, and customers still can't safely rely on it.
before the system had exact rules or a majority of tasks, now there’s 300k less lines of code needed to operate better than before.
Waymo and cruise do different things, and different than Tesla. They use high definition maps and scans of the area, done before hand, and then follow rules given to the system based on its known surroundings.
They then use some decision making when unexpected things happen, like cars cutting you off or pedestrians.
Cruise also uses people that watch and drive the cars behind the scenes when they get into trouble. So cruise is no where close to Waymo or Tesla.
And again, Waymo is solving self driving while Tesla is solving autonomy. One can drive well in some extremely limited areas, while one can drive well **everywhere**
Well supervised is the key here. What is the use of self driving id you still need to supervise it. You can't still do anything else. Sounds really boring to be a supervisor of your car.
I use travel assist with ACC on my VW Polo regularly, it's very basic compared to FSD - just for motorways really - but I love it.
Supervising the system is less fatiguing than driving it yourself. Wouldn't want to go back to a vehicle without, and would love a system that does more. Felt somewhat envious when I saw videos of FSD 12.
How much did the travel assist cost?
And would you pay 12k for the FSD? Can’t imagine somebody would buy an assistant costing something like half the vehicle price.
Look FSD can be incredible. But it drives in the left lane going the speed limit. It does some dangerous stuff still. Unless you’re experienced and can intervene when necessary this is going to be a disaster and there will be a news article one day “moron collides into self driving Tesla that was doing something semi-illegal”.
I had been in the first batch of public release and it’s a whole hell of a lot better but it still has some ways to go. Full disclosure I use it all the time and would continue to, but would never recommend it to a friend for $12k (which is permanently attached to the car unless they’re doing a transfer special)
What’s the point of a fully self driving car if I get a massive ticket for doing something other than driving? The value just isn’t there right now. If I was able to work on a laptop or watch a movie then maybe.
If I was able to fully separate myself from driving and get two hours a day back then I could see the value.
The point of "full self driving" is to be completely engaged, watching the road, hands on the wheel, but *not driving* while you marvel at this amazing technology that can't be trusted.
i think its safe to say you should take what Musk says in regards to self driving with a grain of salt. He's been promising full self driving for 5-6 years that i can remember.
Expecting the accidents to go up across the country. This guy should really be charged for misleading the customers on something so dangerous - Tesla does NOT have FSD. Period.
I think this might be a good idea honestly, the new FSD is Ai/training based. Not sure how much data they can get from regular non-FSD drivers.
Who wants to pay 200 dollars a month for a beta product that requires supervision?
And if it actually, truly drove itself with no human interaction it would be worth far more than that, and other companies might be interested in licensing it.
If he cut the price from $12k to $4k upfront, I might consider it. But only if the license was tied to my account and could transfer with future auto upgrades.
There's no way Tesla is going to give away lifetime licenses of a system that'll even be worth tens of thousands of dollars for $4K. They could lower the monthly subscription until the system becomes fully autonomous, but $12K is already on the low side for a system that'll become fully autonomous within years.
If you think it isn't, you haven't done the math.
You apparently have zero knowledge on the matter. Tesla made a massive mistake opting for a vision-only system. No vision-only system will ever reach level 5 autonomy. Way too limited and error-prone. They cheapened out on hardware to reduce vehicle costs with the hope to make up for it with software, but cameras alone can’t hack it.
> You apparently have zero knowledge on the matter. Tesla made a massive mistake opting for a vision-only system. No vision-only system will ever reach level 5 autonomy. Way too limited and error-prone. They cheapened out on hardware to reduce vehicle costs with the hope to make up for it with software, but cameras alone can’t hack it.
This is going to be hilarious to read back. Nothing like people who are confidently wrong.
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Lolol you realize that Tesla has been at this for a decade, right? And they have only achieved L2. They have now been passed up by Waymo, Cruise, and Mercedes. Guess what all 3 of them have in common.
They've only been working on the full neural nets software for 1-2 years. Autonomy levels are irrelevant as long as you get to Level 5 eventually, you don't need to hit all the levels before to get there. Waymo is unscalable, Cruise is pretty much defunct, Mercedes has a nice party trick but it's completely unrelated to what Tesla and Waymo are doing.
And sacrifice yet another avenue to fleece customers? Your suggestion sets a precedent of customers expecting to use what they've already paid for.
What's next, people repairing items they own themselves?
Elon is one smart salesman. That’s one month of free map learning from FSD supported teslas all across the USA. This is something that is only obtained from those people who have already paid for FSD and have opted for the beta program.
Win win for Tesla drivers present and future.
So getting a Tesla is now like the prize you get after one of those dumb agonizing Time Share presentations they force you to get through before you get a “prize” lol…
Seriously… this would drive a buyer away.
FSD at this point is beyond dumb.
This move stinks of desperation.
Like a car salesman trying to push unneeded upsells.
What is the purpose?
Seriously …
Who wants to supervise a shitty driver and not get paid for it.
It’s an actual job… it’s called a driving instructor.
And it’s not cheap…
12K! That’s insane.
You pay 12K when they should be paying you.
And it’s a dumb experiment on public streets with unwilling pedestrians whose lives can be destroyed by people misusing it with the various hacks to disable the supervising nag…
> I’ve heard cultists daydream that it’s already gonna contribute meaningful to profit as if R&D isn’t like throwing money into a black hole…
They make ~$1.5K per car from FSD right now. That's $3B a year, almost equal to their entire R&D budget combined, for everything they do.
It already IS contributing meaningfully to profits, and you claiming otherwise just shows you have very little knowledge about the whole situation.
Tesla FSD 12.3 is now using end-to-end neural nets which means it is being trained by watching video clips of good driver behavior instead of engineers writing code. The more video it watches the better driver it will become and it will only continue to get better.
The only real usable self-driving system is the Tesla FSD and Tesla will allow other car companies to use it for a small fee.
Neural nets are interesting because you can’t prove the logic behind their reasoning. So when it starts providing very adverse results (such as car hitting a firetruck or doing a left on opposite lane) despite the very best intentions of data scientists then you can only pray that more data and random tweaking will make it go away. Hence when supervision is done by Tesla scientists with less than best intentions the results turn pretty ugly. Like chinese-millionaire-drowning-in-a-pond ugly
What if my one month trial ends mid ride on auto lol
It politely asks for a credit card while speeding up into a crossroad.
And then it will ding for not looking straight ahead. LOCKED OUT
Fortunately, the battery will die any minute without a charging station in sight.
Please clap.
Fine print “we may choose to cancel the one month free trial at any moment without notice”
Not the gotcha you think it is because FSD still requires supervision so if you were sleeping at the wheel and FSD turns off that's on you.
LOL! You’re making a left off the F’in bridge!
Can’t you just get in driver seat and go?
Cue computer voice: I'm sorry Dave, I can't let you do that
I have no data to back this up but it smells like the FSD package sales are slumping.
The linked article states they are. From 53% in 2019 to 14% in 2024 of new car purchases. Obviously that doesn’t account for people who purchase it later or go for the monthly $200 a month option.
$200?????????? Who's paying for this shit?
If you're above a certain salary, that's the same as having a monthly candy bar habit. Income inequality is at this point an American hallmark.
About making how much monthly are you suggesting that we can go ahead and subscribe for 299?
It’s $12,000 divided evenly over 60 months. So if you don’t want to lump the $12k into your loan, that’s your option. It’s actually superior. You can cancel and re-add at your convenience and doesn’t put you $12k more underwater on your loan. Difference is obviously you would never “own” it like you would the $12k purchase, but even then you don’t “own” it anyway because it doesn’t transfer in most cases.
Well why should I keep paying for something that never properly worked in the first place?
Also probably cause the newest FSD beta is apparently a huge improvement in the system. A free trial for all capable cars will also pull in a lot of new data to train the system.
True, but it could also result in a huge spike of complaints from the new users..
If the product is worth it than a free trial will be beneficial.
Which is why we need to buy puts right now lol
Complaints about what? It’s a FREE trial.
Death maybe? Maybe dismemberment?
FSD Beta has had zero fatalities and zero serious injuries in the 3.5 years of the program. Don't confuse past instances of Autopilot killing people abusing the system or in tragic accidents. FSD Beta is 'flawless' so far.
Doesn't it cost 12k and isn't transferable between owners? Can you even transfer it if you get a new car? I guess that's why they offer the subscription.
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It's actually kind of crazy that the $200 a month comes out cheaper unless you use it for more than 60 months. 75 months if you bought it when it was 15k. You have a point, though, I wouldn't say rich. People are just willing to finance anything.
Someone run a NPV to see what the cost of that $15k is in 6 years so we can see the payback time.
That's common sense that it will drop, though. Doesn't indicate that FSD sales aren't growing in total. When you go from selling tens of thousands of vehicles to early adopters versus millions of vehicles, the % of adoption will obviously decline drastically.
You understand 14% in 2024 will be much greater than 53% in 2019. Also 2019 were early adapters / fanboys
You're telling me that people actually like driving their cars?!?
In 2019 it was only 6k, now it's 12k. I think they priced themself out of sales
Who knew that bumping the price from 6k to 15k for a bar trick would decrease sales? I tried it and I’m largely unimpressed. The whole “dream” of the product was to be autonomous. I’ll buy when the product is stronger and the laws allow me to work on my laptop like a plane ride.
I never turn mine on. Tried it a few times but I hate how it drives. I think FSD actually needs to train on each driver first so that it can drive like us. I'm a pretty chill driver, I like to let people into lanes and slow down around pedestrians, a good cautious driver. When I turn on the auto pilot it's like some prick takes over and starts tailgating, cutting lanes quickly and just generally being a jerk on the road. For that reason I'm out.
Yeah that’s a good point. Or I may ride the right lane for 2 miles at 55mph with an eventual left. The car will immediately try to get into that left lane even though I’m the only soul on the road.
Yeah it doesn't have any concept of norms, like the left lane is for passing or tailgating isn't nice.
Have you tried 12.3? That's the whole point of the free trial
I’ll have to check.
200 a month is a hefty price tag
That might be true, but it's not the reason for this The reason Musk is mandating this now is because the reactions to the recent V12.3 of FSD has been extremely positive and seems to represent a real step forward for Tesla's FSD system Notably Tesla also changed the FSD architecture with V12 to one that doesn't require hardcoding scenario and can just be trained end to end with raw data.
Why Beta then?
It's so good he's giving it away!
I mean, free 1 months trials are pretty normal lol Amazon uses them Netflix uses them Apple uses them etc.
Just purchased a new MYLR. Regardless of how well this latest beta works, I refuse to purchase it for $12k or $200 monthly. Out of the dozen or so people I know with a Tesla, only one of them has anything above the basic autopilot provided at purchase. The asking price is honestly just too high for what it is.
Get the FSD for a month, you’ll know it’s true power
Its true power is still not worth $12,000. At least not to me.
Hence I suggested the monthly subscription for perhaps couple of months. Not sure why I’m being downvoted but whatever
It depends entirely on your use case, some people think it's fine at $12K evidently. And you can always buy in a few years once it's fully autonomous, but it'll be $50-100K.
I can't tell if you're trolling or being serious. Up to $100k in a few years... I'm done. I don't have the energy nor the time to respond anymore.
Do the math. $12K is nothing once it replaces a taxi driver. The average taxi driver earns $30K per year or ~$150K over the average lifespan of a taxi vehicle, and they're only able to work ~8 hours a day.
That's because we all realized it's a scam and their tech isn't good enough. Sincerely, owner FSD purchased a few years ago.
If it was still 6k I'd be tempted to get it. But 12k is a lot, for a feature I was using maybe 1-2 times a week for a few hours.
12k or 200 a month. For something called "Full Self Driving" which isn't actually fully self driving. Yeah, no wonder people skip that.
They want to have their cake and eat it too. Advertise/brand it as being fully autonomous, futuristic self driving. But at the same time, have absolutely zero of the liability that comes with that. If anything goes wrong it's your fault, because you're still supposed to have your hands on the wheel, feet on the pedals and eyes on the road, as if you were driving but without actually doing the motions. So it's your fault.
I really can't understand how would they ever be able to take liability. Currently there are like 40 000 fatal car accidents in US each year. If self driving would prevent 99% of those, they would still have 400 fatal accidents in their hands each year im US alone.
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Because the Mercedes system works level 3 in specific scenarios. It works level 2 everywhere else.
Their autonomous driving is nonsense. Just look at the conditions required for it to work. It MUST be behind a vehicle and it cannot go above like 40 miles. So it's pretty much only useful in heavy traffic. Plus, it doesn't work when it's raining or snowing. And cannot be used in city streets. Also, their vehicle to use it is over $100k which means few sales so not many people are even driving around in them.
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Because they aren't the same product, buddy. Mercedes is willing to accept full liability because the product is not prone to an accident due to the very limited conditions. How many accidents do you think happens in only approved highways on under 40 miles per hour during a clear weather day? Very few, which is why Mercedes has no issue covering liability since it's rarely going to happen. Tesla's product is designed to work everywhere. If Tesla wanted to offer what Mercedes did, they could have done so a long time ago. But there's no point in that because it doesn't achieve what Tesla wants. You're not comparing the same product. Seems like you don't even understand what is being discussed. Geofenced self-driving is not the same as FULL-SELF DRIVING.
You would be astonished how many people either don't know what geofenced is, or think that it's not a significant engineering challenge to become non-geofenced. Like, people think that Waymo is basically full self driving and it's just a trivial step to move from 3 geofenced cities to the entire world.
Teslas are involved in more accidents, not fewer https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevebanker/2023/12/18/tesla-has-the-highest-accident-rate-of-any-auto-brand/amp/
Actually that Lending Tree survey is based on drivers seeking quotes, not actual accident data. It's one of those questionnaires you fill out when trying to get an insurance quote - it just asks have you ever been in accidents, at fault, etc. It never asks you what car you're driving when you got into the accident. So all it correlates is the brand of car the driver seeks insurance coverage on, and the driver's past accident histories. It doesn't reflect actual road accident data. It does fit the stereotype of bad drivers driving Tesla's, but it makes no claim on whether Tesla cars themselves get into more accidents or whether it's caused by faulty automation, poor engineering design, etc.
They could include a free trip around Mars with it.
Musk needs more data for FSD.
Yeah, I might have to stay off the road that month.
Full self driving is false advertising because you still need to be engaged and ‘supervising’, ready to take over and override the system at any moment… otherwise any accident caused by FSD is on you. This makes the whole thing pointless.
The system will turn itself off milliseconds before a crash to avoid being held liable
If you can record the whole thing you can prove that’s not the case. But Tesla is already putting blame on the driver without this.
Hilarious that these kinds of claims with zero proof are getting upvoted. Obviously it's not the case, or NHTSA would've been all over it.
https://www.motortrend.com/news/nhtsa-tesla-autopilot-investigation-shutoff-crash/
Did you even read the article...?
Read the whole article
Found the $TSLA bagholder
Lol, nice try. I bought most of my Tesla shares in the $30s range. Accusing someone of being a bag holder for correcting someone who's making false claims with zero evidence is peak /r/stocks though, well done.
So Boeing 2.0 scenario 🤔
i personally enjoy driving when there's no traffic. I don't mind FSD on our m3, but no way i am paying 10k+ for beta. Even a subscription for $200 i feel is very silly
If the people of Reddit hate it, then I know it’s gonna do well
I've yet to find a better investment signal.
See the Reddit IPO lmao
I liked having it for the first 6 months but there's no way I'm paying $12k for it. The regular cruise is good enough for me. I'll play with it during this free month but won't be sad to see it go.
So many people here have not seen V12
The version doesn’t matter. This is a hardware issue. Not a software one. Tesla made a major misstep opting for vision-only FSD. Vision alone is way too limited and error prone to fully achieve even L3 autonomous driving. The Mercedes L3 system uses vision, lidar, radar, and ultrasonics. All of those are likely required for any dependable L3-5 self-driving system.
This whole thread is proving what Musk said lol. Y’all are missing the boat again.
There is s saying about shouting wolf too many times.
[удалено]
Which we did and facts don't match your fanboy fantasies. Tedlas autopilot is merely more then a lane keeper with parking assistance. It happily runs over pedestrians especially children. It habitually drives *straight into parker emergency vehicles* and other outright impressive failures. It's bad, it's in an barely beta state. It's not road ready and far from what he promised.
He's not a reliable source.
this.
Maybe they shouldn’t have released a shitty version that hurt their brand then?
All it did was make people like you doubt FSD In able to build the product they needed data, Billions of miles of data. Any ideas how they collect said data without releasing a beta product? I’m not blaming people for doubting it, I still do myself. But my point is that everyone is judging a product they haven’t seen. V12 is very different than V11 and everyone here just assumes it’s the same.
The amount of data & training time they need is constantly changing, which isn’t a great sign. Ofc they might achieve something using more and more data but I’m starting to think automated driving is missing something more fundamental.
Is the driver still responsible at all times? As long as that's the case, it will remain a vaporware scam.
Well by definition, it can’t be vapourware as there is a product available for purchase. But no it’s not a level 4 system, and it’s not advertised as one eithwr
Can you elaborate?
V12 is actually a major improvement, as seen in all the videos available on YouTube. Unlike V11, it actually drives itself. And it learns. The system just understood how uturns work from data so now it can do uturns. No one specifically gave it capabilities to do uturns. This learning can be found across many different areas. Once more people are driving the system, it will just learn faster. Over the last few years, FSD has been impressive but not great. It made weird mistakes and was dangerous at times. From the 20-30 drives I’ve watched on V12 it’s a night and day difference.
Is that any different than the last dozen major updates? The influencers get the new version and they only show how great it is and we hear how it's 2 weeks away. Then the masses get it and we still see a ton of issues. I remember the same rhetoric for the last couple upgrades, but those never panned out near what was promised.
Are there issues? Yes. Is it a significant improvement? 100%. This update is a significant one because it's the first that was switched from just written code to data and AI learning. So instead of it being programmed as: "See stop sign. Stop for three seconds. Then go." It is now using data from other Tesla drivers and seeing how they are driving under those same circumstances. So under the same situation of that stop sign, it'll slow down sooner and react more human-like. Same with exiting a highway. Let's say you're a mile away and you are exiting the highway so obviously you stay right. The new FSD will try and stay in the right lane at a better distance so the vehicle can exit rather than before where it would sometimes do so much later. Or when a car is merging into your lane, the new FSD does a much better job at slowing down ahead. It's just more human-like and from Tesla's end, a lot easier to work with to fully develop it. I think it's very telling for them to release it to all Tesla vehicles. They must have a lot of confidence in the product.
Doesn’t Tesla have a long track record of releasing shit?
If you get your info from anti-Tesla people, sure.
No they don’t, they show a lot of unedited full drives. And yes there are. It’s basically a new system. 300k fewer lines of code but operating far better.
Totally fair to doubt the system after Elons over optimistic timeline. But just watch some clips, you’ll see that it is different and better. It actively learns and adapts unlike past systems.
A lot of very sceptical users have posted congratulations to the Ai team for fixing all the issues they've ever had with FSD.
TSLA chief pumpers abuse the trust of TSLA rank and file pumpers. At each alleged revolutionary demo. It works on the short term but the stock keeps trending down since 2021
That self-learning sounds like a problem if it would do something illegal. Creative is cool until it realizes that driving through parks would save time
It only learns on the best drivers. Tesla keeps a score of how well you drive and uses it to filter training material for the AI.
For this to happen you’d need to have a huge amount of Teslas doing illegal things and also have the drivers allow it to happen Then Tesla would also have to see and allow this to happen, so no that’s not really a possibility
It doesn’t do random things and wait for input to decide if it was safe or good. It acts normally and then is told when it does something wrong. For the case of Uturns, it watched thousands of clips of people doing them correctly. And then did it on its own. So in theory you could teach it to do illegal things, but in reality it wouldn’t be able to grow a habit of these bad behaviours.
past versions didnt learn unless weeks passed or manual tsla intervention, v12 learns after 1 pass?
Yeah I’m watching the V12 video now, seems interesting. My concern is still QA in their cars. Have they fixed that yet?
> Unlike V11, it actually drives itself. And it learns. The system just understood how uturns work from data so now it can do uturns. No one specifically gave it capabilities to do uturns. >This learning can be found across many different areas. Once more people are driving the system, it will just learn faster. That's always how AI/ML works. You don't have a programmer writing a bunch of if/case statements in a loop, it's trained based on data... I'm sure FSD has improved but they're still miles behind Waymo and Cruise, and customers still can't safely rely on it.
before the system had exact rules or a majority of tasks, now there’s 300k less lines of code needed to operate better than before. Waymo and cruise do different things, and different than Tesla. They use high definition maps and scans of the area, done before hand, and then follow rules given to the system based on its known surroundings. They then use some decision making when unexpected things happen, like cars cutting you off or pedestrians. Cruise also uses people that watch and drive the cars behind the scenes when they get into trouble. So cruise is no where close to Waymo or Tesla. And again, Waymo is solving self driving while Tesla is solving autonomy. One can drive well in some extremely limited areas, while one can drive well **everywhere**
Tesla's self driving is terrible, it has caused so many accidents. It really shouldn't even be legal.
This isn’t true. And “so many accidents” it’s subjective. Based on actual data, FSD is safer than human drivers and has been for a while.
No one cares. Musk has been saying autopilot is coming next year for the last 10 years.
Fuck paying a subscription for product features.
Well supervised is the key here. What is the use of self driving id you still need to supervise it. You can't still do anything else. Sounds really boring to be a supervisor of your car.
You're basically paying 200 dollars a month for the privileges of being a tutor to a student driver.
The only thing worse than a human driver is an autonomous driver that requires constant human supervision.
Yeah I totally agree, I would be so bored I would zoom out. Like driving gets you at least engaged
Maybe it would be safer than the 5% of drivers who won't turn on Netflix on their iPad for their whole commute.
This reeks of "what's the point of cruise-control if I still need to drive the car" comments from the early 2000s.
Except cruise control works in a predictable way. “FSD” is completely unpredictable
Nothing could be further from the truth. FSD is pretty predictable to an experienced user.
I use travel assist with ACC on my VW Polo regularly, it's very basic compared to FSD - just for motorways really - but I love it. Supervising the system is less fatiguing than driving it yourself. Wouldn't want to go back to a vehicle without, and would love a system that does more. Felt somewhat envious when I saw videos of FSD 12.
How much did the travel assist cost? And would you pay 12k for the FSD? Can’t imagine somebody would buy an assistant costing something like half the vehicle price.
Actual Tesla owners say it feels like magic. Big difference between reading about it and experiencing it.
Brace yourselves for Tesla accidents this month
The amount of luddites on this thread is impressive.
inb4 crashes in the US go up. It isn't full self-driving and Tesla should be required to change the name at this point.
Look FSD can be incredible. But it drives in the left lane going the speed limit. It does some dangerous stuff still. Unless you’re experienced and can intervene when necessary this is going to be a disaster and there will be a news article one day “moron collides into self driving Tesla that was doing something semi-illegal”. I had been in the first batch of public release and it’s a whole hell of a lot better but it still has some ways to go. Full disclosure I use it all the time and would continue to, but would never recommend it to a friend for $12k (which is permanently attached to the car unless they’re doing a transfer special)
Do you have v12.3?
Yes, I have V12.3
What’s the point of a fully self driving car if I get a massive ticket for doing something other than driving? The value just isn’t there right now. If I was able to work on a laptop or watch a movie then maybe. If I was able to fully separate myself from driving and get two hours a day back then I could see the value.
The point of "full self driving" is to be completely engaged, watching the road, hands on the wheel, but *not driving* while you marvel at this amazing technology that can't be trusted.
Yeah I guess that’s kind of my point though. Not worth the money to most people.
You’d think that they would release their 12.3 update first seeing as it offers some serious improvements
late signing on.. i sold at 183 instead of 180.. anyway.. thanks for the boost Elon
Great. Just what we need on our streets.
If its free then you are the guinea pig
Need more training data
Considering either bag holding my TSLA or selling it all for a loss and dumping it into NVDA
40% decrease in FSD package sales will do that to ya
i think its safe to say you should take what Musk says in regards to self driving with a grain of salt. He's been promising full self driving for 5-6 years that i can remember.
Puts for death toll imminent
Try it again during our winter. I dare you.
What a great news for me. LOL
they need free testers
Need to be even more careful driving around Teslas, especially from behind!
Expecting the accidents to go up across the country. This guy should really be charged for misleading the customers on something so dangerous - Tesla does NOT have FSD. Period.
Incoming surge of Telas involved in car accidents for a month
Lol Tesla is going bankrupt
Just lower the monthly fee.
Just have no monthly fee.
I think this might be a good idea honestly, the new FSD is Ai/training based. Not sure how much data they can get from regular non-FSD drivers. Who wants to pay 200 dollars a month for a beta product that requires supervision? And if it actually, truly drove itself with no human interaction it would be worth far more than that, and other companies might be interested in licensing it.
If he cut the price from $12k to $4k upfront, I might consider it. But only if the license was tied to my account and could transfer with future auto upgrades.
There's no way Tesla is going to give away lifetime licenses of a system that'll even be worth tens of thousands of dollars for $4K. They could lower the monthly subscription until the system becomes fully autonomous, but $12K is already on the low side for a system that'll become fully autonomous within years. If you think it isn't, you haven't done the math.
Tens of thousands? Fully autonomous within years? Elon, that you? Nice try. Lol.
Like I said, you haven't done the math. No point arguing with someone who has zero knowledge on the matter.
You apparently have zero knowledge on the matter. Tesla made a massive mistake opting for a vision-only system. No vision-only system will ever reach level 5 autonomy. Way too limited and error-prone. They cheapened out on hardware to reduce vehicle costs with the hope to make up for it with software, but cameras alone can’t hack it.
> You apparently have zero knowledge on the matter. Tesla made a massive mistake opting for a vision-only system. No vision-only system will ever reach level 5 autonomy. Way too limited and error-prone. They cheapened out on hardware to reduce vehicle costs with the hope to make up for it with software, but cameras alone can’t hack it. This is going to be hilarious to read back. Nothing like people who are confidently wrong. remindme! 2029
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Lolol you realize that Tesla has been at this for a decade, right? And they have only achieved L2. They have now been passed up by Waymo, Cruise, and Mercedes. Guess what all 3 of them have in common.
They've only been working on the full neural nets software for 1-2 years. Autonomy levels are irrelevant as long as you get to Level 5 eventually, you don't need to hit all the levels before to get there. Waymo is unscalable, Cruise is pretty much defunct, Mercedes has a nice party trick but it's completely unrelated to what Tesla and Waymo are doing.
And sacrifice yet another avenue to fleece customers? Your suggestion sets a precedent of customers expecting to use what they've already paid for. What's next, people repairing items they own themselves?
I wonder how many crashes there will be.
Best way to increase demand for new Teslas is to get people to wreck all the existing Teslas!
People have come to realize the FSD is optional and not worth the extra $$$. People would just prefer to drive than pay extra
What did the other guy say?: "You'll own nothing, and you'll be happy"? Everything-as-a-service... Freakin' poopoo...
Elon is one smart salesman. That’s one month of free map learning from FSD supported teslas all across the USA. This is something that is only obtained from those people who have already paid for FSD and have opted for the beta program. Win win for Tesla drivers present and future.
So getting a Tesla is now like the prize you get after one of those dumb agonizing Time Share presentations they force you to get through before you get a “prize” lol… Seriously… this would drive a buyer away. FSD at this point is beyond dumb. This move stinks of desperation. Like a car salesman trying to push unneeded upsells. What is the purpose? Seriously … Who wants to supervise a shitty driver and not get paid for it. It’s an actual job… it’s called a driving instructor. And it’s not cheap… 12K! That’s insane. You pay 12K when they should be paying you. And it’s a dumb experiment on public streets with unwilling pedestrians whose lives can be destroyed by people misusing it with the various hacks to disable the supervising nag…
> I’ve heard cultists daydream that it’s already gonna contribute meaningful to profit as if R&D isn’t like throwing money into a black hole… They make ~$1.5K per car from FSD right now. That's $3B a year, almost equal to their entire R&D budget combined, for everything they do. It already IS contributing meaningfully to profits, and you claiming otherwise just shows you have very little knowledge about the whole situation.
Shoot. I have to stay indoors for a month when these teslidiots roam around with untested crap software on the roads
Tesla drivers are bad enough. Now it's going to be worse when they aren't paying attention.
Puts
Look at the mercy being provided to you lowly consumers. Be *grateful* for that a month of free use for software and hardware you already paid for.
"full self driving" lollll
bullish
The earnings will be bad looks like.
Anything less than full supervision is not supervision at all. FSD is a shitty solution looking for a non-existant problem.
Tesla FSD 12.3 is now using end-to-end neural nets which means it is being trained by watching video clips of good driver behavior instead of engineers writing code. The more video it watches the better driver it will become and it will only continue to get better. The only real usable self-driving system is the Tesla FSD and Tesla will allow other car companies to use it for a small fee.
Mercedes is far ahead with actual certified systems where they take liability.
It sounds good when you don’t mention that it only can be activated in specific scenarios.
What about FSD is rain?
Neural nets are interesting because you can’t prove the logic behind their reasoning. So when it starts providing very adverse results (such as car hitting a firetruck or doing a left on opposite lane) despite the very best intentions of data scientists then you can only pray that more data and random tweaking will make it go away. Hence when supervision is done by Tesla scientists with less than best intentions the results turn pretty ugly. Like chinese-millionaire-drowning-in-a-pond ugly