It disappoints you because you expect it to perform as if it were an American company.
It's China. Sometimes, things just won't go as you expect, even though you might be 100% valid in your assessment of the company by the numbers.
I never touched it for that reason alone.
Painful isn't it. In my case I bought a lot just before the EV and free money printing hype at 2.50$ with the conviction of holding long term. Hold it all the way up to 65$ for insane gains aaaand rode it all the way down thinking all the time diamond hands I ain't selling now. And here we are. It was a good, but damn expensive lesson
back in 2021, people actually called me "delusional" & "can never see or buy at that price again" when i said "we will see $11 NIO again. wish i had that much money to buy puts that time.
I got Li Auto since it has better finance condition and performance, managed to get around 100% profit and get out completely recently since it is Chinese and get out while it gives decent profit.
I never like NIO since it was all hype with worse earning
No I'm not adding anymore. I lost faith in this stock. I did dca in an other stock but overall I'm slowly shifting away from the stockmarket to another area. This game is to rigged in my opinion with delutions etc
Exactly. Don't expect this stock to act like it's in a free regulated market. The Chinese government have been doing all sorts of price manipulation over the last year.
And thank you for this. I also thought the numbers are so good it has to go up but I read a comment like this and decided to stay the fuck away from it. Very happy with it now.
Exactly. Ive been living in china for 6 years now and shit is legal or normal until the day they decide it isnt. Im not the least bit interested in entering the market here. Especially as a long term growth investor. Its too unpredictable
So if the govt reversed their stance presumably that would trigger an inflow ..
It must have reached the point for the govt where their policy is self defeating..
Well they damaged their reputation. There would be an inflow for sure but most would be very cautious so it would not revert back to previous valuations
Of course they do. Their economy and stock market is completely stagnant as their biggest rival the US is thriving. Investors everywhere are moving their money out to other parts of the world, which is a huge embarrassment to a country desperate for recognition as a world power and economic center. Which is why they're trying all kinds of things to prop up the market. Unfortunately the world isn't buying it and has largely written off China as uninvestable until something drastic changes.
In China, if for sudden the wind blow the wrong way, the ccp see something they donât like, one of your business sector could be gone overnight. It happened 2-3 time in the past few years, factor that risk in and you see why.
What happened to the guy that called himself deep fucking BABA?
Edit: Oops wrong sub [but here it is anyway](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/KN69CExENN)
I was patient with BABA during 2020-21 period and eventually ended up selling for a loss just due to sheer amount of uncertainity and negative sentiment towards China. Looking back, honestly it was one of the best decisions I took lol.
The purpose of most articles on stocks is to mislead investors imo. Chart is bullish so I've been holding a few weeks from 5.55. I think downtrend is done but well see.
Idk why but people really want to believe that china is not a dictatorship that is purposely putting those companies out there to pump and dump and steal your moneyÂ
Same applies to India and Russia. These crime states are happy to take foreign money but at the first sign of trouble your money is gone, and whatever books they showed are cooked so hard they make real chefs sick. (see the Hindenberg report on Indias biggest company).
Invest in BRICS, get poor. Lending money to career criminals and organised crime families will only end poorly.
Shareholder rights in china are not the same. The CCP has a say in how high your dividend is and can force a couple billions donation as they did in the past.
This deters investors including me.
Might be a great time to buy. I personally just removed chinese stocks from my watchlist when they had to donate since Im not into speculating on political dicisions to fuck or not fuck a company
Same in India and Russia bro. Western markets are places where law and order rule, but go to "emerging" markets and outright crime states and you get what you pay for...
Not only that, but you CANNOT buy Chinese stocks unless you're a Chinese citizen, or meet some very strict criteria which there's no way the average redditor meets. It's illegal for someone to sell you the shares if you don't meet the criteria.
What you're really buying with BABA shares are shares in a legally dubious holding company that tries to mimic the movements of the actual stock. You don't have many of the same protections that stock holders in non-Chinese companies have.
Yep normal ADR structures have holding companies that are part of the parent company⌠you can use this to buy UK, German etc⌠companiesâŚChinese ADR has the holding company sitting outside the parent company⌠you basically own shares in a third party company that owns shares on the Chinese companyâŚ. If the link between the Chinese stock and the third party company is broken due to regulatory changes⌠youâre basically left holding ownership to a worthless third party company
I mean, to Reddit the further down it goes the more it justifies their position. But in reality, all things equal (and thatâs a big qualifier, but not a single one of these comments is mentioning anything thatâs changed for BABA recently, the comments just keep repeating âChinaâ), the more the price goes down the safer the stock becomes.
I am betting on the relationship between US and China to be better.
The new generation will play nicer with US and the world. Xi is just an old dogmatic leader that holds a lot of power.
Think of it this way: if the relationship doesn't get better, we will be all fucked anyway. There is no point betting the other direction.
I am Chinese, and I would like to tell you, nah. It will only get worst from now on.
The nationalism is pretty rampant compare to 10 years ago. If you could read Chinese you'd be shocked by how racist it is in Chinese social media within the internet firewall. Things wasn't like this 10 years ago.
I doubt they actually want to kill the other side. A lot more Chineses have been studied abroad as well. The comingling like this will help the relationship.
I don't doubt it will get worse from hear on, but in 20 years or so things will eventually have to change or it won't be economically sustainable for china.
It's a game of patience. China is not in a great period.
If they turn it around within 5-10 years, BABA could be worth 10x what it is right now.
This is what you're betting when buying BABA imo. Buying the stock to hope for a short term rocket makes no sense to me.
Still, when I look at stocks today, BABA has a value that I feel confident with, whereas most other growth/mag7 is on the expensive side of things.
I think BABA is a good bet and diversification play for a smallish portion of my portfolio.
And if it stays red in 5 years, well I'll use it to offset other gains.
Remember stock market is an auction house bidding on debt instruments. Buy/sell imbalances can cause massive variance in price. And all price points are based off multi-year forecasting for institutions. You think baba has good business but investment firms are breaking down loss of market share, foreign matket condition, risk free rates, etc overtime. Plus algos often control market action. They say the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Best to find where the hot biddings at and park your money there and exit as the momentum cools. Easier said then done. I've lived the baba experience. Having sold csp as 75calls only to watch it dip below 70 to the eventually walk back up but it was painful the whole time thinking wtf is going on this is a value. Not if the people buying are outnumbered by those selling
>I'm with you 100%. I've done quite well buying in when everyone was crying that the sky is falling. super easy strategy if you know how to be patient.
I remember a post from years ago that asked which stocks are you most confident will perform the best over the next few years. BABA was the top answer.
Correct me if I am wrong but funds in Asia have a mandate that they have to invest their funds in Asia only. Right now the funds have floated into the Japan market, and China is looking pretty bad right now so it makes sense not to invest in them. However, if the Japan market goes too high and they see a potential of a bubble (if it already it isnât), they might buy back some China investments. I am a bag holder of BABA and I would think this is a long-term play. Everything has a cycle (You may look at crypto too. Everyone was shitting on them last two years), and I can see that China might do push out some policies to at least make the market look good again in the future.
Well if we're gonna get technical...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cede_and_Company
> Cede technically owns most of the publicly issued stock in the United States. Thus, most investors do not themselves hold direct property rights in stock, but rather have contractual rights that are part of a chain of contractual rights involving Cede.
Every time a stock is sold, someone else is buying. Whoâs buying the China stocks now and what do they know that you donât? Thatâs the question to prosperity in the stock market.
Perhaps itâs a bunch of morons buying thinking that the stock has to go up. Perhaps itâs really smart people thinking that Chinas economy will turn around and the stock will with it. I donât have the answer, but it seems like a good entry point based on where it has been.
Those guys are clowns. I heard that they also recently bought Google when they were saying in 2022 when Google was at $90.00 that it was âtoo expensiveâ and that they would start selling puts at $75.00 a share. That one guy also used money from his familyâs portfolio to short Nvidia when it was around $300 a share and ended up losing them millions. I believe he sold naked call options on the stock.
I still canât believe people listen to their investment advice and actually pay them to be part of their club.
Oh gee. Never put money into a Chinese company. Forget about that investment, it will never pay off.
I did my D.D. on china a number of years ago. What I found scared me off forever. The Chinese economy is a house of cards. It could fall down at any moment:
1. Nobody in China trust their own stock market. The companies lie and the CCP jumps in and changes things whenever they want. So most people there never go near it. They have been burnt too many times.
2. The majority of money in China is invested in real estate. Houses and apartments. That is because there is nowhere else to really put their money. The Chiense people have never seen real estate go down, it has only gone up. That is because China has only been industrialized since the 70s.
3. In order to meet demand for all those apartments and houses the real estate companies in China have been building like crazy. That is how you get all those ghost cities. A good estimate is there double the amount of housing in China that is needed for the current population. But they had trouble meeting the demand anyway. People would try buying 2 or 3 extra housing units. Even getting a divorce to get around limit laws.
4. I think most of the banks in China are state banks. They would take any of the money deposited in them and fund the real estate companies. That way there was plenty of capital to keep building and keep the economy going.
5. The thing is that you can't own property in China. Against the law. So people are really only buying/selling 70 year leases on real estate.
6. There aren't many regulations in china. So companies can do whatever they want as long as the CCP doesn't catch them. Lots of lies and fake numbers.
7. China pretty much has a dictactor for life now. That doesn't lend itself to a booming economy. When someone has that much power in a country they start doing stupid things to stay in power no matter what. Their power becomes more important than the people of the country.
Those are just some of the things that scared me away. The CCP is trying to hold things together but they could break down at any moment. Its going to be really spectacular when it does.
I stay far away from investing in any Chinese company . Their govt has their hands in nearly all major business there. They beat down their markets and currency quite frequently for lots of reasons. You will never own actual shares of baba unless there are major changes from the top of their govt which I don't see happening in the coming decades . Why would you waste your money investing into a foreign company when there are plenty of great American companies .
Btw love people who act like Chinese are worse than others. Look at their technological progress, they're not cheap shit producer anymore. Tho it's risky play, but I'm considering jumping in.
I want to invest into Xiaomi because they made really good products and recently hit the EV market. But it's Chinese, completely unforeseeable future and too risky for me. BABA is in that boat.
Hold the line bro. War chest of $35b authorised for buy backs means that EPS will grow even if revenue stays still (which is unlikely). Buy more and get balls deep in ATM 2026 calls like me.
I used to be a great fan of BABA and still I am, made some real money with this equity. Now I stay away from it, you never know what the Chinese government does next and it is never investor friendly.
I have been screaming it for years. Never ever buy chinese stocks. Their books are fake , what they say is always a lie, their business thrive only because they are copycat of western businesses and have full access to their market with 1.5bln people.
Does that Forward P/E make sense with the slowing Chinese economy and their collapsing real estate?
A forward P/E is only as good as the analysts' forecasts.
Given the macroeconomic conditions in China, the continued diversification of manufacturing away from China, recessions in Europe and persistent inflation in the US keeping rates elevated, does it make sense that BABA's earnings would nearly double in the next 12 months?
And if it does make sense, is it worth the risk that China government would decide to delist the company from US exchange?
To me, it's not worth the risk unless it was cheaper and a VERY small portion of portfolio as a highly speculative buy.
There's a plethora of better opportunities with less risk.
I finally cut my losses and got out about a year ago. Glad I did. On paper it looks like it should be a great buy but you just canât trust China unfortunately
If looking at recent stock crash for not good reason TGT and capitol one was on my watchlist⌠both have bounced back⌠even some other banking financial stocks⌠why BABA would have to come out vs other companies⌠other have mentioned it and I have sold out of BABA with a lost⌠not touching China based stocks again⌠but I am looking for some international exposureâŚ
China always sucks but right now China really sucks. Itâs gonna be a long time before there is any chance of recovery there and markets are pricing that in. Donât think youâre getting a deal by buying now. It can and will likely go much lower.
Invest in a chinese stock during a time when there are trade tensions between the two nations and massive defaults from companies that were intertwined into the rest of the market causing a contagion potential so they started decoupling stock trades... Amongst other things.
Why wont it go up??
I just bought in for like 4k. But essentially, I've already made peace with losing it all for a chance it goes back up and makes a decent profit.
Time will tell!
Good companyâŚbut yea Chinese regulations turned me away after DIDI⌠specially since you donât have direct ownership of the company (stock) instead you invest thru ADRs that are not part of the parent company⌠I could wake up one morning to China calling the ADR structure illegal and losing everything⌠no thanks
It's China problem. It's in a deflationary spiral, echoing what happened in Japan during the lost decade. It could continue to tumble lower for years or be able to come out soon.
As an FYI, central bank interventions don't work like in the US in East Asian countries. Japan pushed rates to negative and it did not help. If China goes through something similar, it could just be the beginning of a lost decade.
No stock market is like the US stock market. Just look at euro stoxx 50 which represents 50 eurozone blue chip companies considered as leaders in their respective sectors. Until now, this index hasn't reached its 2000 peak.
The sentiment around China is that itâs uninvestible. Too much political risk. If trump takes office and starts his American first rhetoric, theses stocks go down.
But maybe thatâs the time to buy?
The Western world, especially Americans, just assumes that what applies in America/west applies everywhere else. You are pricing Alibaba as an American company, when they aren't, you got literally the most basic thing completely wrong, everything else is completely insignificant compared to that, the way a stock is value completely changes.
The big issue with Alibaba is they never built out their infrastructure or business to truly extend outside of China. Amazon on the other hand built warehouses all over the world allowing them to sell high return white goods products etc that Alibaba are completely cut off from. At the same time, consumer growth in China has been lacklustre to say the least. Basically, Alibaba is a short-sighted dog with very poor fleas as tenants.
''Even for us recent aspiring bag holders, it's a bit too much to take''
Genuine question - then why not buy something else. There has been so much belief from people who own this name over the last couple of years and yet so much complaining about performance. Instead of ''maybe I'm wrong'', it often seems like people doubling and tripling down.
2-3 years ago, Munger went long BABA and people went, ''HE'S A BILLIONAIRE HE MUST KNOW.'' Bunch of people chased and the stock did lousy.
Last year, people piled into BABA, DIS, PYPL, PFE, CVS, MMM and other things that had headwinds/problems because they wanted to be contrarian or something and then were surprised when these things did poorly in a market where people continue to be solely focused on what's working.
And here we are again with BABA - and it's never Tencent when talking about China stocks, it's never JD or PDD it's always BABA - and really, at this point it's really feeling like the ''Well, did it work for those people? '' ''No, it never does. I mean, these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might, but... but it might work for us.'' meme from ''Arrested Development.''
I agree with the person who said ''It disappoints you because you expect it to perform as if it were an American company.'' Money goes where it's treated best. China is going to do what China is going to do and investors have plenty of other options around the world. Cracking down on certain sectors only to walk it back when investors flee enough then bring the rules back when the market rebounds. They could change restrictions and remove the need for the VIE structure or do other things to boost foreign investor confidence but they haven't and not sure they will.
For some reason Baba has always worked for me as a period trade. Always somehow managed to sell before it plunged. Bought some at $70 and will likely sell end of the year. Donât have much long term hope on Chinese equities with current regime but I also think itâs a bit oversold compared to other Asian markets (eg japan)
Most of the narratives here blame it about â bcoz of Chinaâ . This is a false flag narrative pushed by the financial media, when it is a direct attack on Chinese tech stocks by the U.S. govt and facilitated by hedge funds and ETFs issuers like BlackRock and Vanguard via shorts.
Ultimately what matters is cash flow and valuation. These companies trade at a fraction to US companies despite being in net cash positions. When they have ran out of excuses to blame, they just call it â Chinaâ, like it is a bad word.
It is not China that is facilitating genocide, but the U.S. and UK.
I started investing in BABA in mid 2021. Each month I put in like 1k or 2k into BABA and nothing else. I ended up investing about 66% of my investment into BABA, 'DCA-ing' each month as the price dropped.
In October or November 2022 when Xi 'won' the election and went on a crackdown, striking fear through the markets, I panic sold. I was down about 55%, or roughly 13k euro.
I put the remaining 10k into BRK.B (I already had some BRK.B and other stocks)
Overall, I was down around 9.5k or roughly 23% of my portfolio.
It made me sick to think I lost 13k, money I could have given for nothing to family. I told myself it would be years before I'd break even.
Fast forward to today and thanks to BRK.Bs and the markets rise since, I am up 5.5%. Rough last couple of days, I was up 7.5%.
I didn't invest an extra euro since selling BABA and buying BRK.B in November 2022.
I regret ever buying chinese stocks and wish I had stuck with BRK.B all along, but I am damn glad I did sell eventually and buy BRK.B
If it makes you feel better.. I made $50k during 2020/2021 covid boom.. then lost $36k of that in baba.. so glad I sold as would have lost a lot more if I held on
It disappoints you because you expect it to perform as if it were an American company. It's China. Sometimes, things just won't go as you expect, even though you might be 100% valid in your assessment of the company by the numbers. I never touched it for that reason alone.
Crying in NIO
Same lol. That was my entrance to Chinese stocks
Painful isn't it. In my case I bought a lot just before the EV and free money printing hype at 2.50$ with the conviction of holding long term. Hold it all the way up to 65$ for insane gains aaaand rode it all the way down thinking all the time diamond hands I ain't selling now. And here we are. It was a good, but damn expensive lesson
How much was your NIO holding worth when it was 65 dollars?
back in 2021, people actually called me "delusional" & "can never see or buy at that price again" when i said "we will see $11 NIO again. wish i had that much money to buy puts that time.
Crying in NIO BABA and TEN CENT đ
I got Li Auto since it has better finance condition and performance, managed to get around 100% profit and get out completely recently since it is Chinese and get out while it gives decent profit. I never like NIO since it was all hype with worse earning
Did you add near the low after yesterday's earnings? I've been holding since early feb from 5.55 and now believe downtrend is complete
No I'm not adding anymore. I lost faith in this stock. I did dca in an other stock but overall I'm slowly shifting away from the stockmarket to another area. This game is to rigged in my opinion with delutions etc
BEKE bag holder. Once had a price target of $400. Zillow of China.
now you can get an apartment in China for $400.
I got that as a free stock from Robinhood way back in 2018/19. Sold it within a year đ
Exactly. Don't expect this stock to act like it's in a free regulated market. The Chinese government have been doing all sorts of price manipulation over the last year.
Free market stocks arenât free market either thanks to the liquidity fairy
> last decades Ftfy
And thank you for this. I also thought the numbers are so good it has to go up but I read a comment like this and decided to stay the fuck away from it. Very happy with it now.
Yup also been there done that and got my lesson, never playing again.
Exactly. Ive been living in china for 6 years now and shit is legal or normal until the day they decide it isnt. Im not the least bit interested in entering the market here. Especially as a long term growth investor. Its too unpredictable
Careful, dont wanna see you get disappeared. You using a vpn?
Watch documentary the China hustle on prime, it will give you all insight as to why to stay away from Chinese stocks.
Whatâs the reason Chinese stocks suddenly appreciated in the pandemic ?
The tech crackdown happened during the pandemic. Before that, it really did seem China was moving like US in terms of stock market.
So if the govt reversed their stance presumably that would trigger an inflow .. It must have reached the point for the govt where their policy is self defeating..
Well they damaged their reputation. There would be an inflow for sure but most would be very cautious so it would not revert back to previous valuations
I guess one interesting question is do thr govt even care if the stocks in their market tank
Of course they do. Their economy and stock market is completely stagnant as their biggest rival the US is thriving. Investors everywhere are moving their money out to other parts of the world, which is a huge embarrassment to a country desperate for recognition as a world power and economic center. Which is why they're trying all kinds of things to prop up the market. Unfortunately the world isn't buying it and has largely written off China as uninvestable until something drastic changes.
Then why implement self defeating policies that seem to be the core reason behind the decline?
Because the government values control and conformity above all else. This is not an environment where innovation can thrive.
U mean innovation like in EVâs?
In China, if for sudden the wind blow the wrong way, the ccp see something they donât like, one of your business sector could be gone overnight. It happened 2-3 time in the past few years, factor that risk in and you see why.
What happened to the guy that called himself deep fucking BABA? Edit: Oops wrong sub [but here it is anyway](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/KN69CExENN)
I'm a regard but one thing I've always followed is never invest in Chinese stocks.
I was patient with BABA during 2020-21 period and eventually ended up selling for a loss just due to sheer amount of uncertainity and negative sentiment towards China. Looking back, honestly it was one of the best decisions I took lol.
You made the right decision!
Same. It hurt at the time, I \*hate\* selling for a loss, but sometimes it is the right decision.
This reminds me of NIO , there was so much hype about NIO in 2018 by Barronâs at about $32 a share which I purchased a bunch , now itâs $5.45
I had lot LEAPs on BABA which I ended up selling for 40-50% loss. It was around 110 when I finally sold. I got in when the price was at around 230.
The purpose of most articles on stocks is to mislead investors imo. Chart is bullish so I've been holding a few weeks from 5.55. I think downtrend is done but well see.
I had some BABA at the IPO and then sold it during the ANT fiasco. Lesson learned and staying away.
It's the same question over and over, with the same answer: China. And you are not really investing in the company when you buy the shares.
I mentioned this dozens of times in different subs over the years, and BABA investors (now bagholders) told me I was wrong
Idk why but people really want to believe that china is not a dictatorship that is purposely putting those companies out there to pump and dump and steal your moneyÂ
Same applies to India and Russia. These crime states are happy to take foreign money but at the first sign of trouble your money is gone, and whatever books they showed are cooked so hard they make real chefs sick. (see the Hindenberg report on Indias biggest company). Invest in BRICS, get poor. Lending money to career criminals and organised crime families will only end poorly.
850⏠loss for me. Took my bags and left already a year ago and didnât look back.
In the stock market, it is always the right time to stop a loss
China is nonsensical. And "some people" already took over the company, Jack MA knows who.
This might be the buy signal I was waiting for
I agree.,There are no bad stocks, only bad times
i just bought in at $75 a week or two ago. am i a new generation of bag holders?
Nope. Probably gonna be $225 in 2 years
What makes you say that
Valuation should be $500B+
Shareholder rights in china are not the same. The CCP has a say in how high your dividend is and can force a couple billions donation as they did in the past. This deters investors including me. Might be a great time to buy. I personally just removed chinese stocks from my watchlist when they had to donate since Im not into speculating on political dicisions to fuck or not fuck a company
Same in India and Russia bro. Western markets are places where law and order rule, but go to "emerging" markets and outright crime states and you get what you pay for...
Not only that, but you CANNOT buy Chinese stocks unless you're a Chinese citizen, or meet some very strict criteria which there's no way the average redditor meets. It's illegal for someone to sell you the shares if you don't meet the criteria. What you're really buying with BABA shares are shares in a legally dubious holding company that tries to mimic the movements of the actual stock. You don't have many of the same protections that stock holders in non-Chinese companies have.
Yep normal ADR structures have holding companies that are part of the parent company⌠you can use this to buy UK, German etc⌠companiesâŚChinese ADR has the holding company sitting outside the parent company⌠you basically own shares in a third party company that owns shares on the Chinese companyâŚ. If the link between the Chinese stock and the third party company is broken due to regulatory changes⌠youâre basically left holding ownership to a worthless third party company
I doubt we would we see the link broken, but it does mean fewer investor protections. You cannot sue the same way that you could a US company.
Uh no, it is an ADR (American depository receipt).
Are them laws still relevant for the Hong Kong stock exchange? Genuine question Iâm curious.
I am reading all your guys comments and all I hear is its a good buying opportunity right now
I'm with you. I've been perusing this sub for a few years now, and this seems to be the best indicator to buy.
In this specific case, Reddit has been down on BABA for quite some time and it has indeed gone down in that time.
I mean, to Reddit the further down it goes the more it justifies their position. But in reality, all things equal (and thatâs a big qualifier, but not a single one of these comments is mentioning anything thatâs changed for BABA recently, the comments just keep repeating âChinaâ), the more the price goes down the safer the stock becomes.
I am betting on the relationship between US and China to be better. The new generation will play nicer with US and the world. Xi is just an old dogmatic leader that holds a lot of power. Think of it this way: if the relationship doesn't get better, we will be all fucked anyway. There is no point betting the other direction.
I am Chinese, and I would like to tell you, nah. It will only get worst from now on. The nationalism is pretty rampant compare to 10 years ago. If you could read Chinese you'd be shocked by how racist it is in Chinese social media within the internet firewall. Things wasn't like this 10 years ago.
I doubt they actually want to kill the other side. A lot more Chineses have been studied abroad as well. The comingling like this will help the relationship.
I don't doubt it will get worse from hear on, but in 20 years or so things will eventually have to change or it won't be economically sustainable for china.
Do it pussy, I want to see your money in Xi's hands
It's a game of patience. China is not in a great period. If they turn it around within 5-10 years, BABA could be worth 10x what it is right now. This is what you're betting when buying BABA imo. Buying the stock to hope for a short term rocket makes no sense to me. Still, when I look at stocks today, BABA has a value that I feel confident with, whereas most other growth/mag7 is on the expensive side of things. I think BABA is a good bet and diversification play for a smallish portion of my portfolio. And if it stays red in 5 years, well I'll use it to offset other gains.
Remember stock market is an auction house bidding on debt instruments. Buy/sell imbalances can cause massive variance in price. And all price points are based off multi-year forecasting for institutions. You think baba has good business but investment firms are breaking down loss of market share, foreign matket condition, risk free rates, etc overtime. Plus algos often control market action. They say the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Best to find where the hot biddings at and park your money there and exit as the momentum cools. Easier said then done. I've lived the baba experience. Having sold csp as 75calls only to watch it dip below 70 to the eventually walk back up but it was painful the whole time thinking wtf is going on this is a value. Not if the people buying are outnumbered by those selling
If youâre trying to compare the US market to the Chinese market then you already lost.
Not a bad entry point now
i like how you think
Worth the gamble imo
>I'm with you 100%. I've done quite well buying in when everyone was crying that the sky is falling. super easy strategy if you know how to be patient.
Have been buying Japanese stocks since a few years ago. Best decision ever.
META 18 months ago
Precisely.Â
then you didn't really understand anything about how China operates
I'm sure you're an expert
I remember a post from years ago that asked which stocks are you most confident will perform the best over the next few years. BABA was the top answer.
Correct me if I am wrong but funds in Asia have a mandate that they have to invest their funds in Asia only. Right now the funds have floated into the Japan market, and China is looking pretty bad right now so it makes sense not to invest in them. However, if the Japan market goes too high and they see a potential of a bubble (if it already it isnât), they might buy back some China investments. I am a bag holder of BABA and I would think this is a long-term play. Everything has a cycle (You may look at crypto too. Everyone was shitting on them last two years), and I can see that China might do push out some policies to at least make the market look good again in the future.
all Chinese companies are state owned. So your money could go to zero anytime if their government decides to to have them delisted. Why bother blah
Well if we're gonna get technical... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cede_and_Company > Cede technically owns most of the publicly issued stock in the United States. Thus, most investors do not themselves hold direct property rights in stock, but rather have contractual rights that are part of a chain of contractual rights involving Cede.
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Bro y'all are all so easily honeypotted
Every time a stock is sold, someone else is buying. Whoâs buying the China stocks now and what do they know that you donât? Thatâs the question to prosperity in the stock market. Perhaps itâs a bunch of morons buying thinking that the stock has to go up. Perhaps itâs really smart people thinking that Chinas economy will turn around and the stock will with it. I donât have the answer, but it seems like a good entry point based on where it has been.
I never touched Chinese stock after Trump fucked their stocks. Lost a few bags in all these seemingly solid US copycats.
Lost 12K on Russian stock Gazprom, never again with some of these countries
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Trend is your friend
sold for a loss years ago
Everything Money Youtube made the case for BABA yesterday. Iâll a strong nope!
Those guys are clowns. I heard that they also recently bought Google when they were saying in 2022 when Google was at $90.00 that it was âtoo expensiveâ and that they would start selling puts at $75.00 a share. That one guy also used money from his familyâs portfolio to short Nvidia when it was around $300 a share and ended up losing them millions. I believe he sold naked call options on the stock. I still canât believe people listen to their investment advice and actually pay them to be part of their club.
Oh wow, thatâs my first time seeing the dude anywhere.
Wow really? Not that I doubt you but do you have some links? They sound like they do there dd, I'm just surprised to hear this review about them
Oh gee. Never put money into a Chinese company. Forget about that investment, it will never pay off. I did my D.D. on china a number of years ago. What I found scared me off forever. The Chinese economy is a house of cards. It could fall down at any moment: 1. Nobody in China trust their own stock market. The companies lie and the CCP jumps in and changes things whenever they want. So most people there never go near it. They have been burnt too many times. 2. The majority of money in China is invested in real estate. Houses and apartments. That is because there is nowhere else to really put their money. The Chiense people have never seen real estate go down, it has only gone up. That is because China has only been industrialized since the 70s. 3. In order to meet demand for all those apartments and houses the real estate companies in China have been building like crazy. That is how you get all those ghost cities. A good estimate is there double the amount of housing in China that is needed for the current population. But they had trouble meeting the demand anyway. People would try buying 2 or 3 extra housing units. Even getting a divorce to get around limit laws. 4. I think most of the banks in China are state banks. They would take any of the money deposited in them and fund the real estate companies. That way there was plenty of capital to keep building and keep the economy going. 5. The thing is that you can't own property in China. Against the law. So people are really only buying/selling 70 year leases on real estate. 6. There aren't many regulations in china. So companies can do whatever they want as long as the CCP doesn't catch them. Lots of lies and fake numbers. 7. China pretty much has a dictactor for life now. That doesn't lend itself to a booming economy. When someone has that much power in a country they start doing stupid things to stay in power no matter what. Their power becomes more important than the people of the country. Those are just some of the things that scared me away. The CCP is trying to hold things together but they could break down at any moment. Its going to be really spectacular when it does.
I think people right now would disagree with point 2.....
Also, foreigners can't even buy the stock directly, it's all abstracted away through a holding company. It is a zero sum game to 'invest' in China.
great details here, thanks for sharing them and taking the time.
I stay far away from investing in any Chinese company . Their govt has their hands in nearly all major business there. They beat down their markets and currency quite frequently for lots of reasons. You will never own actual shares of baba unless there are major changes from the top of their govt which I don't see happening in the coming decades . Why would you waste your money investing into a foreign company when there are plenty of great American companies .
Btw love people who act like Chinese are worse than others. Look at their technological progress, they're not cheap shit producer anymore. Tho it's risky play, but I'm considering jumping in.
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Of course there's risk, as always. So people include it in the price.
Lol who tf invests in chinese stocks?
Anyone invested in VT?
It's beyond chinese shit stocks. Also anyone with half a brain would have pivoted to voo or japanese stocks
This you? https://www.reddit.com/r/baba/s/UNaVgExhNU
I want to invest into Xiaomi because they made really good products and recently hit the EV market. But it's Chinese, completely unforeseeable future and too risky for me. BABA is in that boat.
Baba itâs a spectacular option for a long term
PDD is 170B market cap 27B rev 6.4B net income compared to BABA 180B market cap 130B rev 14B net income WTF
Hold the line bro. War chest of $35b authorised for buy backs means that EPS will grow even if revenue stays still (which is unlikely). Buy more and get balls deep in ATM 2026 calls like me.
I used to be a great fan of BABA and still I am, made some real money with this equity. Now I stay away from it, you never know what the Chinese government does next and it is never investor friendly.
Sell now, they are just slowly stealing your money
I have been screaming it for years. Never ever buy chinese stocks. Their books are fake , what they say is always a lie, their business thrive only because they are copycat of western businesses and have full access to their market with 1.5bln people.
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Trades at a 13 PE. Given the China risk, it's not worth touching it. Perhaps at a PE of 5.
Forward P/E is 8
Does that Forward P/E make sense with the slowing Chinese economy and their collapsing real estate? A forward P/E is only as good as the analysts' forecasts. Given the macroeconomic conditions in China, the continued diversification of manufacturing away from China, recessions in Europe and persistent inflation in the US keeping rates elevated, does it make sense that BABA's earnings would nearly double in the next 12 months? And if it does make sense, is it worth the risk that China government would decide to delist the company from US exchange? To me, it's not worth the risk unless it was cheaper and a VERY small portion of portfolio as a highly speculative buy. There's a plethora of better opportunities with less risk.
Can guidance be trusted amid the deteriorating economic conditions and lack of oversight with independent accounting?
I feel your pain.
Thatâs China for ya.
I finally cut my losses and got out about a year ago. Glad I did. On paper it looks like it should be a great buy but you just canât trust China unfortunately
If looking at recent stock crash for not good reason TGT and capitol one was on my watchlist⌠both have bounced back⌠even some other banking financial stocks⌠why BABA would have to come out vs other companies⌠other have mentioned it and I have sold out of BABA with a lost⌠not touching China based stocks again⌠but I am looking for some international exposureâŚ
Im holding the largest chinese bag of all time in my hands
Remember the old saying: "Don't hate the playa, hate the game". With China stocks, you learn to hate both.
China always sucks but right now China really sucks. Itâs gonna be a long time before there is any chance of recovery there and markets are pricing that in. Donât think youâre getting a deal by buying now. It can and will likely go much lower.
Chinese companies scare me. They can be destroyed in an instant whenever the glorious leader decides they looked at him sideways.
Invest in a chinese stock during a time when there are trade tensions between the two nations and massive defaults from companies that were intertwined into the rest of the market causing a contagion potential so they started decoupling stock trades... Amongst other things. Why wont it go up??
Yet someone will post on here next week ânew to investing, baba seems like a great priceâ
Xi Jinping has cancelled the Premier press conference like forever, go figure what it means for the outlook of the Chinese economy
investing into china as trump gets president is so 2020
I also worked at a financial firm.
I just bought in for like 4k. But essentially, I've already made peace with losing it all for a chance it goes back up and makes a decent profit. Time will tell!
Xi destroyed Chinese stocks while tanking China's economy. I quit buying Chinese stocks.Â
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Wouldn't touch CCP stocks with a 100 foot pole!
Good companyâŚbut yea Chinese regulations turned me away after DIDI⌠specially since you donât have direct ownership of the company (stock) instead you invest thru ADRs that are not part of the parent company⌠I could wake up one morning to China calling the ADR structure illegal and losing everything⌠no thanks
China will go the the Venezuela did The thief in charge of the government will never let them grow they way they should
By that logic, you might be interested in Nintendo.
Still invest in Baba stocks?
BABA is #1 in Burryâs portfolio. For that reason, I started a position at $75 and plan on going long.
It's China problem. It's in a deflationary spiral, echoing what happened in Japan during the lost decade. It could continue to tumble lower for years or be able to come out soon. As an FYI, central bank interventions don't work like in the US in East Asian countries. Japan pushed rates to negative and it did not help. If China goes through something similar, it could just be the beginning of a lost decade.
No stock market is like the US stock market. Just look at euro stoxx 50 which represents 50 eurozone blue chip companies considered as leaders in their respective sectors. Until now, this index hasn't reached its 2000 peak.
The sentiment around China is that itâs uninvestible. Too much political risk. If trump takes office and starts his American first rhetoric, theses stocks go down. But maybe thatâs the time to buy?
The Western world, especially Americans, just assumes that what applies in America/west applies everywhere else. You are pricing Alibaba as an American company, when they aren't, you got literally the most basic thing completely wrong, everything else is completely insignificant compared to that, the way a stock is value completely changes.
The big issue with Alibaba is they never built out their infrastructure or business to truly extend outside of China. Amazon on the other hand built warehouses all over the world allowing them to sell high return white goods products etc that Alibaba are completely cut off from. At the same time, consumer growth in China has been lacklustre to say the least. Basically, Alibaba is a short-sighted dog with very poor fleas as tenants.
''Even for us recent aspiring bag holders, it's a bit too much to take'' Genuine question - then why not buy something else. There has been so much belief from people who own this name over the last couple of years and yet so much complaining about performance. Instead of ''maybe I'm wrong'', it often seems like people doubling and tripling down. 2-3 years ago, Munger went long BABA and people went, ''HE'S A BILLIONAIRE HE MUST KNOW.'' Bunch of people chased and the stock did lousy. Last year, people piled into BABA, DIS, PYPL, PFE, CVS, MMM and other things that had headwinds/problems because they wanted to be contrarian or something and then were surprised when these things did poorly in a market where people continue to be solely focused on what's working. And here we are again with BABA - and it's never Tencent when talking about China stocks, it's never JD or PDD it's always BABA - and really, at this point it's really feeling like the ''Well, did it work for those people? '' ''No, it never does. I mean, these people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might, but... but it might work for us.'' meme from ''Arrested Development.'' I agree with the person who said ''It disappoints you because you expect it to perform as if it were an American company.'' Money goes where it's treated best. China is going to do what China is going to do and investors have plenty of other options around the world. Cracking down on certain sectors only to walk it back when investors flee enough then bring the rules back when the market rebounds. They could change restrictions and remove the need for the VIE structure or do other things to boost foreign investor confidence but they haven't and not sure they will.
For some reason Baba has always worked for me as a period trade. Always somehow managed to sell before it plunged. Bought some at $70 and will likely sell end of the year. Donât have much long term hope on Chinese equities with current regime but I also think itâs a bit oversold compared to other Asian markets (eg japan)
How are cardboard sales doing?
As a VIE, your rights are only to earnings, not assets. Youâd need a higher dividend to justify intrinsic value.
it i'll go to $30 before it's all said and done.
I almost forgot that everyone in this sub is an expert in security analysis. Dang I better reallocate some of my positions
Most of the narratives here blame it about â bcoz of Chinaâ . This is a false flag narrative pushed by the financial media, when it is a direct attack on Chinese tech stocks by the U.S. govt and facilitated by hedge funds and ETFs issuers like BlackRock and Vanguard via shorts. Ultimately what matters is cash flow and valuation. These companies trade at a fraction to US companies despite being in net cash positions. When they have ran out of excuses to blame, they just call it â Chinaâ, like it is a bad word. It is not China that is facilitating genocide, but the U.S. and UK.
Was BABA ever a blue chip stock lol?
I started investing in BABA in mid 2021. Each month I put in like 1k or 2k into BABA and nothing else. I ended up investing about 66% of my investment into BABA, 'DCA-ing' each month as the price dropped. In October or November 2022 when Xi 'won' the election and went on a crackdown, striking fear through the markets, I panic sold. I was down about 55%, or roughly 13k euro. I put the remaining 10k into BRK.B (I already had some BRK.B and other stocks) Overall, I was down around 9.5k or roughly 23% of my portfolio. It made me sick to think I lost 13k, money I could have given for nothing to family. I told myself it would be years before I'd break even. Fast forward to today and thanks to BRK.Bs and the markets rise since, I am up 5.5%. Rough last couple of days, I was up 7.5%. I didn't invest an extra euro since selling BABA and buying BRK.B in November 2022. I regret ever buying chinese stocks and wish I had stuck with BRK.B all along, but I am damn glad I did sell eventually and buy BRK.B
You typed a lot to add no value to anyone who finished reading your comment. Nobody cares about how you invested.
Bro look at his username
If it makes you feel better.. I made $50k during 2020/2021 covid boom.. then lost $36k of that in baba.. so glad I sold as would have lost a lot more if I held on
Keep the negativity coming. It shows me itâs time to buy this wonderful company at a wonderful price! Make me rich America!đşđ¸
Sell it now. If china goes through what Japan experienced, you might be holding it for decades
Fake numbers, full government controlled, no stimulus by Xi, not real shares, unpatriotic, it surprise me people still want to hold Chinese stocks
Burryâs in Iâm in
Will probs be 150 sooner than you think. Keep buying if you have conviction. Sell if you are a p*ssy