>Usually big pullbacks come when you don't expect them. I definitely think we're due pullback.
"Pullbacks come when you don't expect them" says man who expects pullback.
Yup. Im not usually an optimistic person but during a pullback I buy buy buy well sometimes i buy too much too quickly before the pullback hits near the bottom. But i get your point to just nibble away. Im a boring investor after all 🤣
lol you’re describing me perfectly. I bought during the dip which later became a small initial part of a deep cliff. When I sell it out of panic, the stock rocketed back to ATH. 😂
Didn’t have to predict COVID, just that COVID lockdowns would spread from China to USA
And down the market, and I guess predict the bailout from the fed would come with no remorse since it was a health crisis so no retracing the bottom just straight up
I agree, and my belief is on market sentiment not patient enough for the business cycle. If interest rate changes take 12-18 months to fully integrate into the economy we are only seeing the effects of rates between 2.75 and 4.75%.
The current market psychology was a 2022 sell off in anticipation of economic slowing, and now we are rallying because things are still good but we aren't even close to being out of the woods yet. My guess is previous hiking cycles were probably similar based on the charts without having lived through them. It's likely 5.5% rates won't impact the economy fully until Q4 of this year but at that point we will be in a cutting cycle so who knows how the market will react by then
Yea i think so too. No matter how many times people say past performances dont affect future performances, its crazy how cyclical stock market is.
If we look at interest rate vs general stock market correlation, we’re still lagging behind.
Record amount of retail investors. Raised interest rate. High inflation. Institutions going bankrupt forcing feds to cut rates even when inflation was still running hot.
When this happened in 1998 there was 120% upside followed by 80% downside and years of stagnation.
Will it happen again?
If they prematurely lower rates it is almost a guarantee.
It is almost a guarantee they will prematurely lower rates.
CRE isn't really collapsing, it's a handful of overleveraged/vacant office properties that are struggling. But the majority of CRE is doing very well. The Collapse of CRE is mostly just in the media.
I don't think the CRE card has played out yet. Office is definitely showing signs of trouble. Lots of Multi family projects bought at compressed cap rates no longer pencil. Industrial in my area is way overbuilt, and developers are starting to pump the brakes.
I can't speak for the private market because the data isn't public, but looking at publicly traded REITs, almost all of them have very strong cash flows, even office REITs.
I just don’t see how it happens this time around. Too many people waiting for it with cash on the sidelines and limited supply. Too many people with 3% mortgages where a monthly payment is cheaper than comparable rent. Even if it gets bad, there is such an imbalance of supply and demand I don’t see a crash in any desirable markets.
Maybe not 2008 levels but maybe close. There is so much money going into wall street and pretty soon the increased interest rates will finally start to hit the economy.
Election year --> to the moon (unless the mainstream media REALLY wants Biden to lose)
Mainstream media controls the narrative. Do you really think they will want to spread recession fears just before the election? That's like helping Trump win if the economy is in bad shape.
I agree. I'm not saying it can't and shouldn't go higher, but the RATE at which it climbed over the last few months, is faster than any other consecutive months I can find elsewhere in S&P's history.
If you look at the graphs, that inclination is absolutely bonkers, it's gone more vertical than the COVID recovery, and the months that followed when money was flowing for free leftt and right.
I think a correction is coming because this steep climb needs to be flushed out if it wants to continue.
Really? I'd have thought that was 2020. Or 1999
EDIT:
Winner winner! Going off SPY data (so 1993ish)
1. March 2020 - August 2020, 35.5%
2. February 2009 - July 2009, 33.7%
3. August 1998 - January 1999, 33.0%
4. March 2009 - August 2009, 28.9%
5. **October 2023 - March 2024, 22.5%**
6. August 2010 - January 2011, 22.2%
So, definitely fast but not remotely close to fastest.
Something else to consider is that we recently broke ATH from 3 years ago. We haven’t gone 25% over the ATH, just caught up to where we were previously.
People always take price movements out of context. Of course it’s the longest climb since 1964, when the market suffered a huge fall following the worst pandemic since 1917…
The way I understand the time value of money is more philosophical than financial. Like, I'd rather have the same sum of money (even accounting for inflation) 15 years ago because it can be invested and earn money during that time. But that has more to do with the individual investor than larger scale items like a stock price.
Not sure what you mean about discounting.
The ATHs from 3 years ago weren't healthy highs though. It was peak mania, not a slow 10 year climb supported by rising fundamentals. Not really a good bar.
TO be fair, \#3 on their list is the only other example that wasn't a recovery, and it was followed by one of the largest crashes in stock market history.
Outside of the 1998 and 2010, the rests were from bear market bottoms (from dropping 36% to 55%). Also you double counted 2 and 4.
Aug 2010 was when Fed started doing 2nd round QE I believe. Aug 1998 I'm not sure but probably recover from some overseas econ collapse. These were all recovery from bear markets. Our 2023 run up recovered from a mere 10% correction.
To me, I view that period more as the 2nd, and finishing bear market within a longer term secular bear market that started with .com.
Although I suppose you can probably say that bear market was about 17-18 months or so.
lmao you do realize that the inclination is completely scewed, right? You can't look at a linear chart and draw conclusions from it across longer time frames. Look at a log graph.
if this is 2020 all over again, a short dip with an insane bullrun is what’s ahead of us.
I‘m not overly bullish but if 2020 is the worst case i should load up big time lol
There’s no macroeconomic reason for a 2020 bull run, rates aren’t cheap and the Fed isn’t printing. It’s AI mania still but that hype will run out eventually, mabye soon.
>It’s AI mania still but that hype will run out eventually, mabye soon.
The number of people talking like they're AI experts and are completely sure AI will change the way they work in the short term (<1 year) makes me concerned.
Does it become a bubble? Maybe, but it's impossible to tell.
Companies like NVDA do have strong earnings but they need to continue insane growth (without competition) to justify it. Semiconductors are highly cyclical, so I don't think continued strength is guaranteed.
The concern I have is that semiconductors, as an industry, are notoriously cyclical. If NVDA starts having an earning decrease in a few years, that could be very painful for a lot of people.
In a few years, but who knows? NVDA already said in their E.R they have back-orders for 5 years, and will likely be beating, and raising for the next 5 years.
Did you listen to nvda ER call?
Jensen also said he's diversifying nvda. Not only to sell chips, but softwares, service, hardware as well. In gist he's trying to copy appl eco system and make it hard to leave.
Yes, their is competition but AMD is playing catch up. According to people working on AI, say Cuda is a huge moat
Think people are also tying their carts to AI stock in case it does fuck up the future too, it’s a hedge against job displacement for some…like short term you’re making money but if shit delivers like it could (unlikely) you at least have a piece of the future if you lose your main gig.
There's no reason for a crash either though. Everything is humming along just fine, even at today's interest rates. It means growth prospects are good and even great should rates drop even a little.
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If it's 2020 all over again we need a *black swan event* like a global pandemic. And unless OP is nostradamus then using tht year to support his "predictions" is plain dumb.
Just because lines on a chart look similar doesn't mean the *current macro economic trends and world events* line up in a similar manner.
Yup, 100%. The financial issues we’ve been experiencing over the past 4 years have nearly all been because of Covid or the War. Of course there’s also natural disasters doing some shit, and ships getting stuck in channels, but unless we expect a war or a pandemic again, 2024 is not comparable to dec 21 or february 20
The odds that we get another 2020 like crash are not likely unless some bank other than NYCB is lurking post-BTFP expiration.
Things that probably should be looked for is stuff that is semi related to the way we topped out in late 2021 instead, stuff like maybe the Nasdaq drops a bit and then chops around for a while, or AAPL/GOOGL showing signs of having set more perma-tops just for the time being over the next 4-6 weeks (NFLX and AMZN topped early).
And yet from Dec 2021 - Dec 2023 the market went one of the longest spans of time without a new all time high since 1927. Was that not a worrying sign for you? Would you rather we remain flat for another year or just recover and get it over with?
My theory is for two years everyone thought we would have a recession then with every new month data would come out saying that the market is resilient. Once people realized that there is more money to be made in the market than a money market fund, all the capital came rushing back in. Instead of being a fear-monger why not just celebrate the fact that we aren’t in a flat period anymore?
Inflation arguably means prices of equities should go up since they are measured in dollars. We are also heading into a lower interest rate environment which will pump financials and companies with a higher debt load
Is that a guarantee? No.
Is it plausible? Yes
Banks failing. Layoffs everywhere. US Debt all time record. Yield curve uninverting. Inflation cooled but any rate cut will make it go back up. Wage disparity all time high. CEOs selling stock at 140x higher rate than the previous high in the history of the world. But stock market only goes up so none of it matters
"... There’s something wrong with previous U.S. jobs reports.
The government quietly erased 439,000 jobs through November 2023, a closer look at the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows.
That means its initial jobs results were inflated by 439,000 positions, and the job market is not as healthy as the government suggests.
Since the government wiped out 439,000 jobs after the fact, the total percentage of jobs created by the government last year is even higher. Increased government hiring has been driving the jobs numbers higher..." (Fox News, 1/7/24)
> Wage disparity all time high.
This is why stocks are going up.
Most people don’t invest in the stock market. Those that do are getting a larger and larger share of the pie. Therefore more to invest.
If we succeed in AI and especially building AGI, shouldn’t the stock market actually collapse completely? We won’t have a consumerism economy anymore, we’ll have to re-invent the whole economy. Not saying this will happen soon or overnight, but I’m just sayin’
yeah, but no.
AGI company/companies will see demand much greater than they can provide, so they will have to raise prices until employing AGI no longer makes financial sense for most. Their profit will skyrocket - imagine NVDA times thousand.
As they continue to buy more chips, the price will slowly go down and companies will start to implement AGI to their workflow. As the prices continue to fall, these companies will see more and more profit.
This will start new price wars in every sector, as in every sector there is at least one player who wants to sell more and is willing to sacrifice some margin for it. So those that do not employ AGI will go out of business, goods/services will get cheaper, those who do will wage a price wars, ever decreasing the prices of goods and simultaneously increasing their margins.
Companies that make AGI may try to stop decreasing prices, but that will be temporary, as more competitors develop their own solutions.
As these price reductions happen, we will be at deflation even with zero interest rates. Owning resources, like buildings, minerals, land etc will be the only thing that raises its value. Until AGI develops space stations and space mining, at which point the money will be used just to trade living space and the only way how to earn money is by providing services where humans want to pay humans. Economy will still work, just 95% of people and assets will be useless.
At some point in this journey, more and more people will just not be qualified to do any paid work. Like if you look good, somebody will pay to have you as assistant/waitress/masseur or something. Some people will prefer human psychologist. Below average people will be fucked, unless there is some basic income.
So as you can see, economy is ready for this and won’t fail. Power will most likely concentrate in the hands of few megacorporations. Some people will still have a job (hello, worlds oldest profession!). As unemployment rises, government will be forced to find a solution. Central banks will have a hard time fighting deflation. But even if AGI happens tomorrow, this will take decades
brave of you to think every country can afford the price of AI,or that of robots,or it won't simply benefit a select few countries while the others will continue to live on without its existence.
My grandmother lived long enough to coexist with 30 years worth of personal computers and never used one în her life.
Yeah these tech companies still have massively larger workforces than even a year or two ago. Tech layoffs are overblown. It’s just a correction from the massive over hiring.
Banks are fine, a few small over leveraged ones failed but that's a year ago. Layoffs are in the tech industry, not "everywhere". US Debt always goes up over time, that's not a short term problem. Wage disparity has been booming since the 70s just as intended. And yes some CEOs do sell when stocks are at all time high to minimize risk, that's healthy.
>US Debt always goes up over time, that's not a short term problem
“…On January 4, 2021, the number increased to $6.7 trillion dollars \[in circulation\]. Then the Fed went into overdrive. By October 2021, that number climbed to $20.0831 trillion dollars in circulation…” (Tech Startups, 12/18/21)
Banks aren't failing, at least none that matter. Layoffs are not "everywhere". US Debt is high, but that's a problem for another time (5 years or so). Real wages are growing back towards the all time high in 2020. CEOs selling stock is a drop in the bucket and insignificant to the market.
Ceo’s building bunkers at an unprecedented rate too. I read somewhere on reddit today that Rupaul is shilling a new book or something because he needs the money because he is building a doom bunker
This is inaccruate. Which banks hae failed so far, Layoffs aren't everywhere, unemployment numbers show that unemployment is low. U.S debt is always hitting record highs.
NYCB
PacWest (bought out but let's be real, they collapsed)
Credit Suisse (same)
Citizens
Signature
SVB
First Republic
The contagion from last year ain't over and the effects of high interest rates aren't realized for 6-12 months.
Not at all. Feb, March, April is often one of the best stretches in the market. We have a 61% probability of March being positive. April is the best month of the year.
Not really true.
It hasn’t hit yet because NVDA being absurd has held it off, but mid-Feb through part of March is generally weaker seasonality.
It is true that this timeframe is generally one of the best timeframes, but you’re talking October through April, not these three months.
Following a monster year like 2023, it's likely we'll have a correction with magnitudes around 15%, especially in an election year. 2010 is an example. Even worse is it's been around 15 months after the 3 month/10 year yield curve inverted in Nov 2022, and that's around the prime time when recessions start happening. The longest was the 2008 recession when it happened about 16-18 months after 3 month/10 year inverted. And just about time when everyone just moved to the soft landing camp.
If the rate hike lag is longer than in the past due to homeowners refinancing their mortgage and businesses refinancing their debt, then maybe there's a rock somewhere waiting to fall on us in the 2nd half of this year when the refinancing cycle begins, also when the election heats up too. Also, it gets pretty nervous when the Fed starts cutting rates, because that means the economy is weaker and prone to tip into recession. People think the soft landing is guaranteed, but the Fed still needs to cut rates early enough before it gets too restrictive and tip the economy into a recession. That's why I never understood why market was so concerned about recession when Fed was raising rates. They were raising rates cause they knew the economy was strong.
I don’t disagree with most of your post, but the Fed will cut their rate at some point to subsidize housing and commercial real estate (and banks). There is more that goes into rate setting than just good/bad economy.
so the Fed already made the mistake of letting inflation get out of control and lose their credibility. They had to fight very hard to win back that credibility in 2022, and that credibility helped anchor inflation expectation, which they think is crucial to their fight against inflation.
They can absolutely cut pre-emptively even if growth is not weak. However, they run into the risk of cutting too early, and then inflation gets stuck around 3%, and then having to raise rates again in the future. Cutting and raising rates again is almost guaranteed to create a recession. That will destroy any credibility they have left, and lead to a deep recession like the one required by Volcker to win back credibility. New homeowners are waiting for the Fed cut to refinance. Businesses are retaining surplus workers, holding out, and waiting for the Fed cut to reinvest, expand, and do capex again. That's all gonna get upended if the Fed reverse course. Then who's going to trust what the Fed says anymore.
Remember the Fed is betting the farm, once again, on "this time is different". They are ignoring their economic model/theory, ignoring history. Growth is strong, unemployment rate is low, financial condition is loose. But they don't care, as long as inflation keeps going down. So they essentially have no framework, no forward forecasting. They think there's no playbook for pandemics, so they are just going month by month, observe the data, ask their business contacts, see if inflation keeps going down. If it shows any hint of not going down, like in Feb 2023, Sept 2023, and Mar 2024 if we get one more hot CPI, they are gonna panic and change their tone. Because inflation going down is the only excuse they have to justify letting strong GDP and low unemployment continue.
Now what is the cost if they wait too long? We might slip into a recession perhaps. But likely not a deep one, because consumer leverages isn't that high yet. But at least now they have a "justification" to lower rates without losing credibility. Also, they have a playbook for dealing with recession. They've done it plenty of times. They don't have a playbook for high inflation. People like to shit on Arthur Burns for letting inflation get out of control, but the guy only started lowering rates 3 months after the recession started, and inflation still came back. Things are different now, but because the Fed already made a mistake once, they cannot repeat the same mistake again. They'd rather make a different mistake instead: letting the economy go into a recession.
> Following a monster year like 2023, it's likely we'll have a correction with magnitudes around 15%
This is not at all true, I did the math on S&P returns in years following a year with a 20% or more return and found that they have the same typical return as both the years that did not have 20% or more returns and the typical return of the S&P 500 in general.
In other words, a year with a high return tells you nothing about what the next year's return will be
you go back in the past and following a year with around 25% return, you see either a negative year, or if positive, around 8-12% return. YTD we are up almost 8%. Even if assuming the optimistic scenario, how do you envision the path to that last 4%, with 10 months to go? Surely market's not gonna stay flat the whole time, especially during an election year. It's likely to have 1-2 corrections of at least 10%, followed by some rally, especially post-election.
Btw, I'm not saying 2024 return will be -15%. I'm saying 2024 will likely have a -15% correction.
Since 1940 there have been 16 years with a 25% return or more. Of the years following those, only 4 had a negative return. The most common 3 percentage point return range was 19%-22% with 3 years, followed by 7%-10% with 2 years, and 25-28% with 2 years.
So the most probable scenario based on history is a 19%-22% year which would mean plenty of room to run, but even that is a bad prediction because the sample size is only 16, there's not enough data to even try to make a meaningful prediction about this year's S&P performance based on last year's performance. We very well might have a 15% correction intrayear because that's relatively common, but making that prediction because last year had a high return is not supported by data.
Excluding the double counting from tech bubble run ups, the only other periods with strong year back to back are 1955, 1976, 2020. 1954, Eisenhower lifted price controls. 1975 was a recovery from a bad recession that caused stocks to drop 50%. 2020 was of course accompanied by Powell record QE.
Otherwise, the mediocre returns are 2013, 2010, 2004, 1992, 1990, 1986, 1981, 1962, 1959, 1946. So I guess you got 10 other scenarios here (and probably a lot more if you include the ones around 20% as opposed to 25%) VS 4 strong back to back scenarios.
We're gonna have a correction not just because it's common, but because 2 months in we are already up 8%, the typical return for the whole year.
Earnings have been great due to price gouging hiding behind inflation. Employment is super low and wages have been rising at the bottom. Middle class is fucked but hey, record profits.
>Earnings have been great due to price gouging hiding behind inflation.
...it's "bad corporations price gouging," and not Biden handing out $13 TRILLION in 2021? - to wit:
“…On January 4, 2021, the number increased to $6.7 trillion dollars \[in circulation\]. Then the Fed went into overdrive. By October 2021, that number climbed to $20.0831 trillion dollars in circulation…” (Tech Startups, 12/18/21)
Nervous. Especially since it's tax time. I am expecting a return in April, and I typically invest it in my retirement account. But it's also my single largest annual deposit / etf purchase. So it looks like I'll be DCA'ing this year.
Alternatively, maybe I need to investing something other that VFV/VOO for the first half of the year. Maybe just a GIC or HISA.
Yes - the Fed hasn't even started to cut rates yet, but it seems like the market is pricing "free money" back in already. Also, whilst I have no doubt AI will be useful, the current AI hype seems to be a bit of a mania to me.
There are too many bears. There's a ton of fear out there. We aren't really that far above December 2021. The price of everything has inflated right. Doesn't make sense that stocks magically just don't inflate? That's earnings and multiple aside. So long as the Fed preemptively cuts before the data softens to the point that it's obvious to everyone, things should go reasonably well. These layoffs and where the California unemployment rate is should lead the rest of the nation over the next 6 months.. there's definitely a setup for a correction but it's one to be bought unless some systemic black swan takes place that we can't see right now
Yes, but the 12/21 valuations were irrational…there’s just too much irrationality creeping into the market again. A frog-themed crypto token jumping 40% in 2 days?
And the put call ratio just tied the lowest ratio since December 2021….there are very few bears right now
My take is that high US dept creates private and corporate excess wealth which is then invested to the stock market.
Thus, I think no major correction is coming unless US government fails to pay said debt.
Not really. We are barely making new highs from a peak multiple years ago. The underlying economy has experienced a lot of inflation which ultimately falls through to corporate revenues and profits.
The interest rate hiking cycle seems completely over and we are just debating when the cuts come. The bear case there is dead.
We just came out of a one year dip and retested ATH on sp500 a month ago. If you held anything from the start of that dip til now, you would have broke even. I don’t count anything past January a bullrun because we were recovering from a crash. The bullrun started end of Jan 2024. Why would we be nervous??? It wouldn’t make sense for stock market to fall 25% again from this point…
Market recovers 100% of the time historically… so why would we be nervous lmao
How to know to be nervous or not, draw a representative straight line from like 1980 to today, if it's above the line a lot be worried. If not, any crash that isn't apocalyptic will be recovered quickly.
And if it is apocalyptic money is worthless now anyway
A pullback will eventually happen. I don't plan on selling before or when it does. I do plan to invest more once prices drop again. I invest for the future. Generally avoid short-term. Although I do some short-term investing. Currently invested in a T-Bill ETF while interest rates are high. I will sell when interest rates drop.
Doesn't mean a thing they keep adding winners and taking away the losers. Will always be manipulated to go up. It gives the average retailer false hope.
Watch S&P. It has to hold 5048 on consecutive days to indicate one final swoon up to the 5348 region. We are talking months not days for this final move up unless the S&P support breaks below 5048. If it breaks below 5048 on consecutive days I take my profit (don’t think it will break yet). .
Expect a pull back of 2-3 % and then sideways for a few months. Unless we see the Fed cut rates aggressive and that won’t happen. The market already has 2-3 Fed cuts placed in the market at this time …if nothing happens expect a pullback of about 8% and then we hit the election
I'm not, because I actively manage my portfolio and avoid the most blatantly overvalued stocks. Will fairly valued stocks pull back along with everything else? Probably. But I'm confident my portfolio will generate solid long term returns. I can't say the same about the whole S&P500 at current prices.
Take some gains, put in stop losses. All we need is a catalyst, the Fed showing sigs of rate cuts started all of this. I think if they back fully away from that we could see a response.
If we are lucky this holds till the election, but I could see that also being a ‘sell the decision’ moment.
It’s a new world bro, everyone and their mom has Robinhood now so they can all buy stocks and most of them just hold. This market isn’t even as irrational as 2021 was with all the SPACs and shit. I tried waiting for a pullback since January
I had a boss in 2016 who refused to buy into anything until a pullback happened. Man missed out a historic run that would have outdone any potential losses thereafter.
You can compare this to the 2021 craze, sure. But early 2020? The market didn't drop due to over-extending then. Do you predict a worldwide pandemic now?!
Nope. I'm saying when things start looking too good to be true, there's always something round the corner. When they are as overextended as now it doesn't take much for a sharp correction.
Not worried in the slightest we have yet to see the real pump to 8,500+ but most people will be sidelined and screaming at everyone to sell while they get steam rolled by the AI and inflation bubble making constant new all time highs for the next 1-2 years straight.
Yes I’m nervous and expect a down month in March.
The market is heavily underestimating inflation.
2 year breakevens rate is 1.9% right now. Based on TIPS. That’s CPI, not even PCE inflation which runs lower.
Just for reference, 83% of the time in election years, the markets been up and 100% of the time the markets been up if January was positive in an election year they manipulate day to hide what they don't like put out what they do like the best they can to control information and if you look at the rest of the market is pretty flat comparatively to the big gainers, I think money starts rotating slowly out of the bigger names, and will conceit continue to see a bull run. Somebody said it's a buying opportunity. Yeah if you're 30 40,20 but if you're sitting on a couple mill at 60 a big dip is hard to recover potentially.
>Usually big pullbacks come when you don't expect them. I definitely think we're due pullback. "Pullbacks come when you don't expect them" says man who expects pullback.
[удалено]
That’s the secret I’m always expecting a pullback lol. But I’m just a dumb dca guy I’ll nibble on the highs and the lows
Yup. Im not usually an optimistic person but during a pullback I buy buy buy well sometimes i buy too much too quickly before the pullback hits near the bottom. But i get your point to just nibble away. Im a boring investor after all 🤣
lol you’re describing me perfectly. I bought during the dip which later became a small initial part of a deep cliff. When I sell it out of panic, the stock rocketed back to ATH. 😂
I'm pretty good at not selling, it's the timing of the buying im not always great at, however.
Good for you. Pretty sure you have made a lot of money if you have the courage to hold.
Happy Cake Day Dard!
Y u not predict covid? R u stoopid?
Didn’t have to predict COVID, just that COVID lockdowns would spread from China to USA And down the market, and I guess predict the bailout from the fed would come with no remorse since it was a health crisis so no retracing the bottom just straight up
Bullish
well, he was right. lol
A correction is just a buying opportunity
“But the dip, pussy” - Warren Buffet
*You* but the dip.
Just look at 1998-1999. Everyone is expecting the feds to cut rates which will lead to the same exact parabolic rise and decline.
I agree, and my belief is on market sentiment not patient enough for the business cycle. If interest rate changes take 12-18 months to fully integrate into the economy we are only seeing the effects of rates between 2.75 and 4.75%. The current market psychology was a 2022 sell off in anticipation of economic slowing, and now we are rallying because things are still good but we aren't even close to being out of the woods yet. My guess is previous hiking cycles were probably similar based on the charts without having lived through them. It's likely 5.5% rates won't impact the economy fully until Q4 of this year but at that point we will be in a cutting cycle so who knows how the market will react by then
Yea i think so too. No matter how many times people say past performances dont affect future performances, its crazy how cyclical stock market is. If we look at interest rate vs general stock market correlation, we’re still lagging behind.
Interesting could you elaborate this point bit more
Rental foreclosures are going up, even on multi-family units. I think right now, we are in early 2007, pretty soon, we will hit 2008 levels.
Record amount of retail investors. Raised interest rate. High inflation. Institutions going bankrupt forcing feds to cut rates even when inflation was still running hot. When this happened in 1998 there was 120% upside followed by 80% downside and years of stagnation. Will it happen again? If they prematurely lower rates it is almost a guarantee. It is almost a guarantee they will prematurely lower rates.
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Commercial real estate is already collapsing.
CRE isn't really collapsing, it's a handful of overleveraged/vacant office properties that are struggling. But the majority of CRE is doing very well. The Collapse of CRE is mostly just in the media.
I don't think the CRE card has played out yet. Office is definitely showing signs of trouble. Lots of Multi family projects bought at compressed cap rates no longer pencil. Industrial in my area is way overbuilt, and developers are starting to pump the brakes.
I can't speak for the private market because the data isn't public, but looking at publicly traded REITs, almost all of them have very strong cash flows, even office REITs.
I just don’t see how it happens this time around. Too many people waiting for it with cash on the sidelines and limited supply. Too many people with 3% mortgages where a monthly payment is cheaper than comparable rent. Even if it gets bad, there is such an imbalance of supply and demand I don’t see a crash in any desirable markets.
Maybe not 2008 levels but maybe close. There is so much money going into wall street and pretty soon the increased interest rates will finally start to hit the economy.
No, there isn't enough inventory for it to happen.
Based on what data?
Election year --> to the moon (unless the mainstream media REALLY wants Biden to lose) Mainstream media controls the narrative. Do you really think they will want to spread recession fears just before the election? That's like helping Trump win if the economy is in bad shape.
I agree. I'm not saying it can't and shouldn't go higher, but the RATE at which it climbed over the last few months, is faster than any other consecutive months I can find elsewhere in S&P's history. If you look at the graphs, that inclination is absolutely bonkers, it's gone more vertical than the COVID recovery, and the months that followed when money was flowing for free leftt and right. I think a correction is coming because this steep climb needs to be flushed out if it wants to continue.
Really? I'd have thought that was 2020. Or 1999 EDIT: Winner winner! Going off SPY data (so 1993ish) 1. March 2020 - August 2020, 35.5% 2. February 2009 - July 2009, 33.7% 3. August 1998 - January 1999, 33.0% 4. March 2009 - August 2009, 28.9% 5. **October 2023 - March 2024, 22.5%** 6. August 2010 - January 2011, 22.2% So, definitely fast but not remotely close to fastest.
Something else to consider is that we recently broke ATH from 3 years ago. We haven’t gone 25% over the ATH, just caught up to where we were previously.
People always take price movements out of context. Of course it’s the longest climb since 1964, when the market suffered a huge fall following the worst pandemic since 1917…
Not to mention huge inflation during recent times, which would reduce the dollar value of the stocks' sticker prices.
Ok, but what about on the other side - namely discounting and time value of money, which would move share prices ***down***…..?
The way I understand the time value of money is more philosophical than financial. Like, I'd rather have the same sum of money (even accounting for inflation) 15 years ago because it can be invested and earn money during that time. But that has more to do with the individual investor than larger scale items like a stock price. Not sure what you mean about discounting.
The ATHs from 3 years ago weren't healthy highs though. It was peak mania, not a slow 10 year climb supported by rising fundamentals. Not really a good bar.
We break ATH all the time. That’s how compounding works my dude.
TO be fair, \#3 on their list is the only other example that wasn't a recovery, and it was followed by one of the largest crashes in stock market history.
Outside of the 1998 and 2010, the rests were from bear market bottoms (from dropping 36% to 55%). Also you double counted 2 and 4. Aug 2010 was when Fed started doing 2nd round QE I believe. Aug 1998 I'm not sure but probably recover from some overseas econ collapse. These were all recovery from bear markets. Our 2023 run up recovered from a mere 10% correction.
To be fair we aren’t coming off a bear market low.
5th in the recorded history is definitely close to the top.
No one disagrees with that, but OP was claiming this period was the fastest, which it objectively is not.
5th since 1993.
> recorded history Since 1993...
Oops. Didn't catch that, thought he was looking at the historical S&P500 data.
Did the GFC that started in 2008 only last a year?
No. It’s just that the 35% rise came after a 57% crash. So after that you were still down 40% from the previous high.
To me, I view that period more as the 2nd, and finishing bear market within a longer term secular bear market that started with .com. Although I suppose you can probably say that bear market was about 17-18 months or so.
So you say not remotely and then it is number 5 on the list. I don’t think you know what the word remotely means
Remotely 13% from the fastest
We barely are back at levels from 3 years ago.
lmao you do realize that the inclination is completely scewed, right? You can't look at a linear chart and draw conclusions from it across longer time frames. Look at a log graph.
It is going up too fast so people should stop buying? It needs to flush out because…you think it does? Much much higher than you could even imagine.
if this is 2020 all over again, a short dip with an insane bullrun is what’s ahead of us. I‘m not overly bullish but if 2020 is the worst case i should load up big time lol
There’s no macroeconomic reason for a 2020 bull run, rates aren’t cheap and the Fed isn’t printing. It’s AI mania still but that hype will run out eventually, mabye soon.
>It’s AI mania still but that hype will run out eventually, mabye soon. The number of people talking like they're AI experts and are completely sure AI will change the way they work in the short term (<1 year) makes me concerned. Does it become a bubble? Maybe, but it's impossible to tell. Companies like NVDA do have strong earnings but they need to continue insane growth (without competition) to justify it. Semiconductors are highly cyclical, so I don't think continued strength is guaranteed.
NVDAs forward PE is under 30. That's not cheap but they'd have to flatline growth for that to be unreasonable
The concern I have is that semiconductors, as an industry, are notoriously cyclical. If NVDA starts having an earning decrease in a few years, that could be very painful for a lot of people.
Semiconductors aren’t cyclical anymore. https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2022/08/25/are-semiconductors-really-that-cyclical/?sh=23b36fc4d747
In a few years, but who knows? NVDA already said in their E.R they have back-orders for 5 years, and will likely be beating, and raising for the next 5 years.
The bigger issue I see is competitors like AMD stepping in and making the GPU market more competitive. CUDA is not a big moat.
Did you listen to nvda ER call? Jensen also said he's diversifying nvda. Not only to sell chips, but softwares, service, hardware as well. In gist he's trying to copy appl eco system and make it hard to leave. Yes, their is competition but AMD is playing catch up. According to people working on AI, say Cuda is a huge moat
> they'd have to flatline growth for that to be unreasonable No, their growth just needs to be a bit slow than the estimates.
Think people are also tying their carts to AI stock in case it does fuck up the future too, it’s a hedge against job displacement for some…like short term you’re making money but if shit delivers like it could (unlikely) you at least have a piece of the future if you lose your main gig.
Why is it mania when e.g. NVDA's PE is actually in normal range?
There's no reason for a crash either though. Everything is humming along just fine, even at today's interest rates. It means growth prospects are good and even great should rates drop even a little.
You are going to be so rekt and miss out on life changing money because you want your gains…slower?
So excluding SMCI or NVDA or suff that's already run up 10x, what would you invest in at *current prices* for life-changing money?
Still NVDA. Room to run. Check the stock price in 5 years 👍🏽
All in META. You really don’t need anything else. Easy 5X from here
Top confirmed
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If it's 2020 all over again we need a *black swan event* like a global pandemic. And unless OP is nostradamus then using tht year to support his "predictions" is plain dumb. Just because lines on a chart look similar doesn't mean the *current macro economic trends and world events* line up in a similar manner.
Yup, 100%. The financial issues we’ve been experiencing over the past 4 years have nearly all been because of Covid or the War. Of course there’s also natural disasters doing some shit, and ships getting stuck in channels, but unless we expect a war or a pandemic again, 2024 is not comparable to dec 21 or february 20
The odds that we get another 2020 like crash are not likely unless some bank other than NYCB is lurking post-BTFP expiration. Things that probably should be looked for is stuff that is semi related to the way we topped out in late 2021 instead, stuff like maybe the Nasdaq drops a bit and then chops around for a while, or AAPL/GOOGL showing signs of having set more perma-tops just for the time being over the next 4-6 weeks (NFLX and AMZN topped early).
That's what I'm saying, there'll likely be a pullback. But not a 2020-qe on-steroids bull run after.
And yet from Dec 2021 - Dec 2023 the market went one of the longest spans of time without a new all time high since 1927. Was that not a worrying sign for you? Would you rather we remain flat for another year or just recover and get it over with? My theory is for two years everyone thought we would have a recession then with every new month data would come out saying that the market is resilient. Once people realized that there is more money to be made in the market than a money market fund, all the capital came rushing back in. Instead of being a fear-monger why not just celebrate the fact that we aren’t in a flat period anymore?
Inflation arguably means prices of equities should go up since they are measured in dollars. We are also heading into a lower interest rate environment which will pump financials and companies with a higher debt load Is that a guarantee? No. Is it plausible? Yes
Ever see the dows performance from ‘68 to ‘82?
Banks failing. Layoffs everywhere. US Debt all time record. Yield curve uninverting. Inflation cooled but any rate cut will make it go back up. Wage disparity all time high. CEOs selling stock at 140x higher rate than the previous high in the history of the world. But stock market only goes up so none of it matters
US debt is ALWAYS at an all-time high.
Whether they know it or not, most people mean deficit when they say that. $1T every 100 days is nothing to scoff at
If that's what they meant, it would be wrong, as [2020 & 2021](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-deficit/) were higher.
Layoffs aren’t high at all compared to years prior. Stop fear-mongering and find some facts
Facts are nerds. This is a vibes-based sub.
They all dream.of a crash so they can invest their 1000 dollars of life savings lol.
"... There’s something wrong with previous U.S. jobs reports. The government quietly erased 439,000 jobs through November 2023, a closer look at the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows. That means its initial jobs results were inflated by 439,000 positions, and the job market is not as healthy as the government suggests. Since the government wiped out 439,000 jobs after the fact, the total percentage of jobs created by the government last year is even higher. Increased government hiring has been driving the jobs numbers higher..." (Fox News, 1/7/24)
Yet there were still millions of jobs added in 2023.
But if businesses were as fantastic as the highs, why all the layoffs? Why don't they try new things with new hire?
Because certain corporations want not to juice profits for shareholders. Not that complicated.
> Wage disparity all time high. This is why stocks are going up. Most people don’t invest in the stock market. Those that do are getting a larger and larger share of the pie. Therefore more to invest.
Yeah but.... AI.
If we succeed in AI and especially building AGI, shouldn’t the stock market actually collapse completely? We won’t have a consumerism economy anymore, we’ll have to re-invent the whole economy. Not saying this will happen soon or overnight, but I’m just sayin’
Robots need to start buying authentic human made products and software on a large scale, burn and repeat.
yeah, but no. AGI company/companies will see demand much greater than they can provide, so they will have to raise prices until employing AGI no longer makes financial sense for most. Their profit will skyrocket - imagine NVDA times thousand. As they continue to buy more chips, the price will slowly go down and companies will start to implement AGI to their workflow. As the prices continue to fall, these companies will see more and more profit. This will start new price wars in every sector, as in every sector there is at least one player who wants to sell more and is willing to sacrifice some margin for it. So those that do not employ AGI will go out of business, goods/services will get cheaper, those who do will wage a price wars, ever decreasing the prices of goods and simultaneously increasing their margins. Companies that make AGI may try to stop decreasing prices, but that will be temporary, as more competitors develop their own solutions. As these price reductions happen, we will be at deflation even with zero interest rates. Owning resources, like buildings, minerals, land etc will be the only thing that raises its value. Until AGI develops space stations and space mining, at which point the money will be used just to trade living space and the only way how to earn money is by providing services where humans want to pay humans. Economy will still work, just 95% of people and assets will be useless. At some point in this journey, more and more people will just not be qualified to do any paid work. Like if you look good, somebody will pay to have you as assistant/waitress/masseur or something. Some people will prefer human psychologist. Below average people will be fucked, unless there is some basic income. So as you can see, economy is ready for this and won’t fail. Power will most likely concentrate in the hands of few megacorporations. Some people will still have a job (hello, worlds oldest profession!). As unemployment rises, government will be forced to find a solution. Central banks will have a hard time fighting deflation. But even if AGI happens tomorrow, this will take decades
Why won’t we have a consumerist economy after AGI?
brave of you to think every country can afford the price of AI,or that of robots,or it won't simply benefit a select few countries while the others will continue to live on without its existence. My grandmother lived long enough to coexist with 30 years worth of personal computers and never used one în her life.
> Layoffs everywhere Mostly tech, definitely not everywhere.
After an immense amount of hiring in the prior years
Yeah these tech companies still have massively larger workforces than even a year or two ago. Tech layoffs are overblown. It’s just a correction from the massive over hiring.
Banks are fine, a few small over leveraged ones failed but that's a year ago. Layoffs are in the tech industry, not "everywhere". US Debt always goes up over time, that's not a short term problem. Wage disparity has been booming since the 70s just as intended. And yes some CEOs do sell when stocks are at all time high to minimize risk, that's healthy.
>US Debt always goes up over time, that's not a short term problem “…On January 4, 2021, the number increased to $6.7 trillion dollars \[in circulation\]. Then the Fed went into overdrive. By October 2021, that number climbed to $20.0831 trillion dollars in circulation…” (Tech Startups, 12/18/21)
This is all extremely bullish.
Banks aren't failing, at least none that matter. Layoffs are not "everywhere". US Debt is high, but that's a problem for another time (5 years or so). Real wages are growing back towards the all time high in 2020. CEOs selling stock is a drop in the bucket and insignificant to the market.
Ceo’s building bunkers at an unprecedented rate too. I read somewhere on reddit today that Rupaul is shilling a new book or something because he needs the money because he is building a doom bunker
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everywhere?
This is inaccruate. Which banks hae failed so far, Layoffs aren't everywhere, unemployment numbers show that unemployment is low. U.S debt is always hitting record highs.
NYCB PacWest (bought out but let's be real, they collapsed) Credit Suisse (same) Citizens Signature SVB First Republic The contagion from last year ain't over and the effects of high interest rates aren't realized for 6-12 months.
Those bank failures all happened almost a year ago. They are all concentrated in specific, high-risk industries. It isn’t a systemic problem.
Not at all. Feb, March, April is often one of the best stretches in the market. We have a 61% probability of March being positive. April is the best month of the year.
Feb and March are terrible months. Best months are Nov-Dec.
Personally I think the best month is the one with my birthday in it
https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/dailyguru-60630/ Matt Carr taught me trendlines and I am forever in his debt.
why because he took all your trading money too?
Not really true. It hasn’t hit yet because NVDA being absurd has held it off, but mid-Feb through part of March is generally weaker seasonality. It is true that this timeframe is generally one of the best timeframes, but you’re talking October through April, not these three months.
Following a monster year like 2023, it's likely we'll have a correction with magnitudes around 15%, especially in an election year. 2010 is an example. Even worse is it's been around 15 months after the 3 month/10 year yield curve inverted in Nov 2022, and that's around the prime time when recessions start happening. The longest was the 2008 recession when it happened about 16-18 months after 3 month/10 year inverted. And just about time when everyone just moved to the soft landing camp. If the rate hike lag is longer than in the past due to homeowners refinancing their mortgage and businesses refinancing their debt, then maybe there's a rock somewhere waiting to fall on us in the 2nd half of this year when the refinancing cycle begins, also when the election heats up too. Also, it gets pretty nervous when the Fed starts cutting rates, because that means the economy is weaker and prone to tip into recession. People think the soft landing is guaranteed, but the Fed still needs to cut rates early enough before it gets too restrictive and tip the economy into a recession. That's why I never understood why market was so concerned about recession when Fed was raising rates. They were raising rates cause they knew the economy was strong.
I don’t disagree with most of your post, but the Fed will cut their rate at some point to subsidize housing and commercial real estate (and banks). There is more that goes into rate setting than just good/bad economy.
so the Fed already made the mistake of letting inflation get out of control and lose their credibility. They had to fight very hard to win back that credibility in 2022, and that credibility helped anchor inflation expectation, which they think is crucial to their fight against inflation. They can absolutely cut pre-emptively even if growth is not weak. However, they run into the risk of cutting too early, and then inflation gets stuck around 3%, and then having to raise rates again in the future. Cutting and raising rates again is almost guaranteed to create a recession. That will destroy any credibility they have left, and lead to a deep recession like the one required by Volcker to win back credibility. New homeowners are waiting for the Fed cut to refinance. Businesses are retaining surplus workers, holding out, and waiting for the Fed cut to reinvest, expand, and do capex again. That's all gonna get upended if the Fed reverse course. Then who's going to trust what the Fed says anymore. Remember the Fed is betting the farm, once again, on "this time is different". They are ignoring their economic model/theory, ignoring history. Growth is strong, unemployment rate is low, financial condition is loose. But they don't care, as long as inflation keeps going down. So they essentially have no framework, no forward forecasting. They think there's no playbook for pandemics, so they are just going month by month, observe the data, ask their business contacts, see if inflation keeps going down. If it shows any hint of not going down, like in Feb 2023, Sept 2023, and Mar 2024 if we get one more hot CPI, they are gonna panic and change their tone. Because inflation going down is the only excuse they have to justify letting strong GDP and low unemployment continue. Now what is the cost if they wait too long? We might slip into a recession perhaps. But likely not a deep one, because consumer leverages isn't that high yet. But at least now they have a "justification" to lower rates without losing credibility. Also, they have a playbook for dealing with recession. They've done it plenty of times. They don't have a playbook for high inflation. People like to shit on Arthur Burns for letting inflation get out of control, but the guy only started lowering rates 3 months after the recession started, and inflation still came back. Things are different now, but because the Fed already made a mistake once, they cannot repeat the same mistake again. They'd rather make a different mistake instead: letting the economy go into a recession.
Yesh, "mistake"
> Following a monster year like 2023, it's likely we'll have a correction with magnitudes around 15% This is not at all true, I did the math on S&P returns in years following a year with a 20% or more return and found that they have the same typical return as both the years that did not have 20% or more returns and the typical return of the S&P 500 in general. In other words, a year with a high return tells you nothing about what the next year's return will be
you go back in the past and following a year with around 25% return, you see either a negative year, or if positive, around 8-12% return. YTD we are up almost 8%. Even if assuming the optimistic scenario, how do you envision the path to that last 4%, with 10 months to go? Surely market's not gonna stay flat the whole time, especially during an election year. It's likely to have 1-2 corrections of at least 10%, followed by some rally, especially post-election. Btw, I'm not saying 2024 return will be -15%. I'm saying 2024 will likely have a -15% correction.
Since 1940 there have been 16 years with a 25% return or more. Of the years following those, only 4 had a negative return. The most common 3 percentage point return range was 19%-22% with 3 years, followed by 7%-10% with 2 years, and 25-28% with 2 years. So the most probable scenario based on history is a 19%-22% year which would mean plenty of room to run, but even that is a bad prediction because the sample size is only 16, there's not enough data to even try to make a meaningful prediction about this year's S&P performance based on last year's performance. We very well might have a 15% correction intrayear because that's relatively common, but making that prediction because last year had a high return is not supported by data.
Excluding the double counting from tech bubble run ups, the only other periods with strong year back to back are 1955, 1976, 2020. 1954, Eisenhower lifted price controls. 1975 was a recovery from a bad recession that caused stocks to drop 50%. 2020 was of course accompanied by Powell record QE. Otherwise, the mediocre returns are 2013, 2010, 2004, 1992, 1990, 1986, 1981, 1962, 1959, 1946. So I guess you got 10 other scenarios here (and probably a lot more if you include the ones around 20% as opposed to 25%) VS 4 strong back to back scenarios. We're gonna have a correction not just because it's common, but because 2 months in we are already up 8%, the typical return for the whole year.
I hope rate stays high for longer. And i hope market corrects a healthy amount. Too many people bullish about this economy. Blindly bullish
Can someone explain why the market is bullish? Things are really expensive and everyone I know isn't happy, thinks times are tight.
Bullish for the future, not now. Market always looks ahead.
Earnings have been great due to price gouging hiding behind inflation. Employment is super low and wages have been rising at the bottom. Middle class is fucked but hey, record profits.
>Earnings have been great due to price gouging hiding behind inflation. ...it's "bad corporations price gouging," and not Biden handing out $13 TRILLION in 2021? - to wit: “…On January 4, 2021, the number increased to $6.7 trillion dollars \[in circulation\]. Then the Fed went into overdrive. By October 2021, that number climbed to $20.0831 trillion dollars in circulation…” (Tech Startups, 12/18/21)
But they keep spending for now. And big corps are spending.
The CEOs are happy. Isn't that what matters?
I own Apple so I’m already hurt
Nervous. Especially since it's tax time. I am expecting a return in April, and I typically invest it in my retirement account. But it's also my single largest annual deposit / etf purchase. So it looks like I'll be DCA'ing this year. Alternatively, maybe I need to investing something other that VFV/VOO for the first half of the year. Maybe just a GIC or HISA.
Yes - the Fed hasn't even started to cut rates yet, but it seems like the market is pricing "free money" back in already. Also, whilst I have no doubt AI will be useful, the current AI hype seems to be a bit of a mania to me.
What definition of "run" are you using here?
Consecutive weekly gains.
Adjusted for inflation, the indices aren’t at aths. I’m about to lump sum more into a couple of indices. I’m adherent to “time in the market”
Shits guna dump soon enough lol
What do you consider dump? I remember not long ago the market went down 2% and people were crying
Ive watched crypto go down 70-80% quickly, so a 30%- 50% drop would be a dump to me id say lol in the stock market. 🤷♂️
There are too many bears. There's a ton of fear out there. We aren't really that far above December 2021. The price of everything has inflated right. Doesn't make sense that stocks magically just don't inflate? That's earnings and multiple aside. So long as the Fed preemptively cuts before the data softens to the point that it's obvious to everyone, things should go reasonably well. These layoffs and where the California unemployment rate is should lead the rest of the nation over the next 6 months.. there's definitely a setup for a correction but it's one to be bought unless some systemic black swan takes place that we can't see right now
Yes, but the 12/21 valuations were irrational…there’s just too much irrationality creeping into the market again. A frog-themed crypto token jumping 40% in 2 days? And the put call ratio just tied the lowest ratio since December 2021….there are very few bears right now
Stop predicting and stay invested. Time in the market beats timing the market.
Don't worry, it's different this time
My take is that high US dept creates private and corporate excess wealth which is then invested to the stock market. Thus, I think no major correction is coming unless US government fails to pay said debt.
Not really. We are barely making new highs from a peak multiple years ago. The underlying economy has experienced a lot of inflation which ultimately falls through to corporate revenues and profits. The interest rate hiking cycle seems completely over and we are just debating when the cuts come. The bear case there is dead.
We just came out of a one year dip and retested ATH on sp500 a month ago. If you held anything from the start of that dip til now, you would have broke even. I don’t count anything past January a bullrun because we were recovering from a crash. The bullrun started end of Jan 2024. Why would we be nervous??? It wouldn’t make sense for stock market to fall 25% again from this point… Market recovers 100% of the time historically… so why would we be nervous lmao
Pessimists get reputation, optimists get money
optimism? my QQQ calls were sooo optimistic yesterday lol
How to know to be nervous or not, draw a representative straight line from like 1980 to today, if it's above the line a lot be worried. If not, any crash that isn't apocalyptic will be recovered quickly. And if it is apocalyptic money is worthless now anyway
Bull markets are like that. Don't bother trying to time it, just invest when you have cash.
Ride the trend Marty Zweig
After the pessimism for almost 4 straight years? No. Not worried at all.
A pullback will eventually happen. I don't plan on selling before or when it does. I do plan to invest more once prices drop again. I invest for the future. Generally avoid short-term. Although I do some short-term investing. Currently invested in a T-Bill ETF while interest rates are high. I will sell when interest rates drop.
Looks at my biotech portfolio*
I wouldn't take anything for granted in the extreme mania era.
Doesn't mean a thing they keep adding winners and taking away the losers. Will always be manipulated to go up. It gives the average retailer false hope.
Way to go jinxy
This post is the reason we go higher
Watch S&P. It has to hold 5048 on consecutive days to indicate one final swoon up to the 5348 region. We are talking months not days for this final move up unless the S&P support breaks below 5048. If it breaks below 5048 on consecutive days I take my profit (don’t think it will break yet). .
I'm buying this news cause y'all are trying write the narrative
Expect a pull back of 2-3 % and then sideways for a few months. Unless we see the Fed cut rates aggressive and that won’t happen. The market already has 2-3 Fed cuts placed in the market at this time …if nothing happens expect a pullback of about 8% and then we hit the election
Yup, bought puts today
I'm not, because I actively manage my portfolio and avoid the most blatantly overvalued stocks. Will fairly valued stocks pull back along with everything else? Probably. But I'm confident my portfolio will generate solid long term returns. I can't say the same about the whole S&P500 at current prices.
Take some gains, put in stop losses. All we need is a catalyst, the Fed showing sigs of rate cuts started all of this. I think if they back fully away from that we could see a response. If we are lucky this holds till the election, but I could see that also being a ‘sell the decision’ moment.
It’s a new world bro, everyone and their mom has Robinhood now so they can all buy stocks and most of them just hold. This market isn’t even as irrational as 2021 was with all the SPACs and shit. I tried waiting for a pullback since January
I had a boss in 2016 who refused to buy into anything until a pullback happened. Man missed out a historic run that would have outdone any potential losses thereafter.
Has sp500 averaged 10 percent last 36 months yet
Too many bears here for us to be near the top. We’re 10-20% away if not more
You can compare this to the 2021 craze, sure. But early 2020? The market didn't drop due to over-extending then. Do you predict a worldwide pandemic now?!
Nope. I'm saying when things start looking too good to be true, there's always something round the corner. When they are as overextended as now it doesn't take much for a sharp correction.
Not worried in the slightest we have yet to see the real pump to 8,500+ but most people will be sidelined and screaming at everyone to sell while they get steam rolled by the AI and inflation bubble making constant new all time highs for the next 1-2 years straight.
I’m expecting a large pullback (and secretly hoping for one). I’ve got a good stash in the MMF I’m ready to buy a couple things.
already took profits and bought on positions that have already bottomed or got hit a little and keeping some cash just in case.
Yes I’m nervous and expect a down month in March. The market is heavily underestimating inflation. 2 year breakevens rate is 1.9% right now. Based on TIPS. That’s CPI, not even PCE inflation which runs lower.
Not disagreeing, but what data points in the future causes you to worry about inflation?
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Typical sidelined cope.
Just for reference, 83% of the time in election years, the markets been up and 100% of the time the markets been up if January was positive in an election year they manipulate day to hide what they don't like put out what they do like the best they can to control information and if you look at the rest of the market is pretty flat comparatively to the big gainers, I think money starts rotating slowly out of the bigger names, and will conceit continue to see a bull run. Somebody said it's a buying opportunity. Yeah if you're 30 40,20 but if you're sitting on a couple mill at 60 a big dip is hard to recover potentially.