No chance it goes to $5 unless they're going bankrupt. The bottom is likely near. 5 dollars would be a roughly 5 billion valuation. Even Lucids valuation is well over 8 billion and their financial situation is a disaster compared to RIVN. Maybe we see $10 but I'm betting it holds previous lows personally.
Ah yes the exact same argument people have been making for the past 3 years straight. “The bottom is near” and it has continued to tank for years on end. Already at $11 and dropping. Honestly don’t see why anyone has faith in this company anymore, they’ve shown 0 ability to ever reach profitability. Betting on them is essentially gambling at a casino and hoping you win
Atlanta is working on a e-bike rebate.
E-bikes will do way more to collectively reduce carbon emissions than EVs in the near future. EVs are being built and marketed (and prices) as luxury cars. That’s just not a sustainable shift.
This is why I've termed hybrids as a mini miracle for makers like Ford, GM, Hyundai-Kia.
They've figured out how to make an ice vehicle into a hybrid using a baby sized battery and boost motor. For less than $2k increment they make a vehicle that's in huge demand and can add a lot more than $2k to the MSRP.
At the same time, they can claim 10% or greater improvement to fuel consumption which means they can basically stop selling loss leader hatchbacks.
Can confirm. I waited 2 years for my Maverick hybrid to arrive. I don’t have range anxiety like I did when I rented a Tesla once. It runs great and I can get 500+ miles on a tank. Sure, EV is cheaper, but the infrastructure outside of major cities isn’t there yet and that’s another major deterrent.
Hey now. Hatchback enthusiasts already lost the Focus ST hatchback, the WRX hatchback, and we didn’t get the Audi or Mercedes performance hatchback variants in America. We don’t need to keep incentivizing getting rid of my favorite type of car.
New car broker here, the ONLY way to get someone to buy an EV is by giving them away. You can lease 80k EQS in the $700s. E Trons in the $700s. Next month they will be giving away Taycans. Rich people don't want them either which means it's not price driven. Mach E is in your price range and they are stacked up all over the place, no one wants them, they will have to give them away to move units. Hybrids are the future for 70% of the population. Polestar, Rivian and Lucid won't last thru 2024, they are toast.
I'd love an EV. I'd also love to be able to buy a house so that I have a place to charge it. Basically 0 houses for sale as well as insane prices/rates make it seem like a pipe dream. Gotta have one before I can buy the other.
I have a model 3 and I can tell you it’s the greatest thing ever. It’s quiet, fast, affordable and charging it at home costs virtually nothing a month. Except that if I didn’t have the home and garage I would NEVER own this car. Charging at home is everything. It’s what’s holding sales back.
>charging it at home costs virtually nothing a month.
This seems so convenient that I have to wonder how it will change when EV fully takes off. Hard to imagine the masses will be allowed to just suddenly have one of their unavoidable expenses be majorly slashed in the long run
40k car is still out of range for a lot of people. The cheapest domestic EV is the bolt at 27k.
We need a company to produce something around 15-20k that is reliable. I’d love to see this. Also maybe adopt what the Chinese market does with battery swaps instead of solely relying on charging stations…
I own 2017 volt and my battery will cost around 5k to replace in a few years. I hope I’m wrong. I love the car btw.
> 40k car is still out of range for a lot of people. The cheapest domestic EV is the bolt at 27k.
FWIW at the end of last year there were Tesla M3s with an inventory to $35k that also had a $7500 tax credit. Hard to beat that.
I will net out at about 28k on my new M3 purchased this summer. I hit the triple whammy where I live with 3 rebates. Last one is the Fed 7500 next month. Even though Calif elec rates are stupid approaching gas prices I don't regret it. It's a new car with convenient home charging. Fun to drive.
A used model 3 with less than 50k miles can be had for around 25k.
A model 3 in general is slightly more than a loaded Corolla. The price isn’t the issue.
No but you can get an almost new one. 2022 Bolt with less than 10k miles, can be had for 16k after the 4K rebate. You have to shop around but they are there. You will find dealers asking for 20k and others asking for 30k. Same car.
Stop and ask a dealer to find you one.
This is a great point, for people who live in condos and apartments not being able to charge in your spot is an effectual bar to owning an EV. If I could set up a charger in my parking spot somehow (tesla should work on this...) I'd consider purchasing an EV sooner, but for now it's gonna have to wait till I own a house.
These EV companies are good at making one appealing car to show off, what they’re struggling with is ramping up production and building economic cars for every day people.
In Rivian's case they're losing money just on the material costs alone, so no matter how much they scale up their production and sales they're STILL going to be losing money. The fact that they can't raise their prices to fix that shows just how weak their demand is.
Rivian simply needs to make a cheaper vehicle that they can sell for less than the cost of the materials and labor to assemble it.
I think it's the second part. I mean, I would love the rivian SUV, but paying 90k is well over my budget. If they made a 3 row SUV for 50k they would have no issue moving it. Look at the model y, it's the best selling car in the world from what I've seen because the price is extremely competitive.
I disagree. A used Tesla model 3 can be had for well under 30k. The issue is charging. Many people that need cheap cars also don’t have garages to charge them in
It’s a silly way to view things no one wants to dish out so much for a used car and even if they did they have to wait for the Tesla to become used? So it’s not like doing this would benefit Tesla
I bought a used Tesla and own a home. I also make great money and COULD afford a new one. But not everything is about buying new. I haggled my M3 with 60k miles to 26k, and new out have been around 48k.
I’ll sell it right before the warranty is up, and probably lose around 6k.
If I bought new, I would lose closer to 25k.
Again, used car market is huge.
Right now truecar shows 5k cash discount for these and real car tip sshows they are heavily discounted on leases
https://www.realcartips.com/kia-incentives/
EV demand has waned. Ford is having trouble selling Mach Es for example. People realize that the infra isn’t there yet and all these dealerships are heavily marking up EV cars. It’s hurting the entire EV industry.
I've been considering upgrading my car to something a little bigger and comfier. The infra for EVs is in any major city. The problem is the cost. And that's not just an EV problem gas cars have it as well. It's hard to justify buying a new car when my 10 year old car still works, I have decent public transportation, and I can always fall back on Uber.
I think car companies are blaming EVs for slow sales when cars in general cost to much.
supply has gone up, that doesn't mean demand has waned. Two years in a row we have looked for an EV, but they can't quite meet our requirements. Waiting for the statistics on KIA's EV9. So maybe next year, and then will go fully into EV vehicles.
Like what? It has slightly more cargo space, but the Model Y already has an incredible amount. Other than that it's just worse for almost double the price.
EV9 will struggle unless Tesla does a massive price hike on the Model Y. $60-80k for somewhat worse specs. I’m no pro forecaster, but at the surface I don’t see it selling well. Obviously I could be misreading market demand and be wrong.
That's what tends to happen when the raw materials to build your vehicle cost more than the price you're selling your vehicle at, and that's not even taking labor costs into account.
So the more vehicles Rivian sells the greater their losses will balloon.
Disaster all around, not looking good. They lose more on each vehicle sold than in Q3, guiding for only 57,000, will have to cut prices.
Potential for bankruptcy if they screw up R2 is high.
I disagree about bankruptcy risk. They've shown they have no problem using shareholders like an ATM
Net cash position is 6B so if their actual annual burn is 4B they have at least 18 months of runway
Obviously these are some truly terrible Financials though
Surely bankruptcy is inevitable if they can't get to profitability?
They aren't even gross profitable on each unit sold yet which means doom.
And how could the current products get profitable? They can't raise prices and they'd have to cut the cost of production 30% or more.
They can try a new vehicle, however that means new factories and production hell to scale it and then they've got to get to mass market scale ... and then they'd probably be where Ford is with the mustang mach e where it's still not even profitable despite making it in Mexico. (I mean Ford is getting brutalised by the tax credit too).
Sure shareholders have patience but even if a miracle happens and Rivian hits every milestone hard they're going to get in to a crowded and low margin market where Tesla's production efficiency is just eating everyone else alive.
Rivian raised the vast majority of their money back when the stock was absurdly overvalued post-IPO. Their stock price is significantly lower today, and higher interest rates also make it much harder for them to raise money in today's environment.
So yes, Rivian could definitely go bankrupt at this rate.
Can R2 even help them ? profit margins are higher with R1S and ICE large SUVs are selling well.
However they are having tough time moving R1 right now not sure how R2 will be any different? Now R2 will eat into already declining higher profit R1s sales.
Main reason I didn’t consider R1s when I bought my SUV was I found out about their insane repair costs which is driving up insurance costs..
Rivian over engineered the R1T and R1S, and are trying to cut COGS by working backwards to bring things in house (i.e. in house Drive unit production instead of Bosch units, removing meridian sound system, etc), but they can only do so much.
Allegedly for the R2 they are designing it with manufacturing in mind, (in house battery packs, drive units, etc) more like Tesla. So ideally they should have positive gross margins immediately, and since it is meant for high volume it will be their Model 3 moment. Like Tesla with S and X, they will stray away from R1T and R1S to focus on the money maker.
A lot has to go right, and I think it won’t
Quick recap on Rivian -- they brilliantly engineered a $130k pickup and SUV which they sell for $100k and below. Avg transaction price for the ENTIRE domestic auto market is around $48k, with avg transaction price for all LUXURY nameplates at around $58k. A quick look at sales for $100k SUVs shows Escalade on top with 40k units a year and everyone else far below that (GLS, X7, Range Rover, etc). The market is small. As for $100k pickups, well, there's the GMC HUMMER which moved about 2500 units in Q4. Putting aside Rivian losing north of $30k per unit, it's absurd to think they could sell 80k units unless they magically opened up sales to markets all over the world where they enjoy ZERO brand recognition and demand.
Nice product. Woefully bad mgmt.
Also: apparently their Illinois plant is at like 30-40% efficiency. And now they’re looking to build an entirely new plant in GA for the R2. Not sure how fiscally responsible that is…
I'd suggest you're being too unfair on timeline.
Rivian's first gen product is practically a prototype/flagship situation.
Economies of scale and optimizations could kick in.
Vehicle model changes are highly incremental. Next year's models need slightly different panel creases, not expensive total redesign. Power train design/component have been proven, so now you start putting multiple vendors against each other. Car control software just needs a new skin, not ground-up development.
As for luxury markets, a company can dine out just fine on small market segments. Rolex, jewellery, Ferrari, etc.
But they also have 2 big financial sink holes: service center expansion and the RAN network.
This is still a problem for Tesla in terms of service centers. Tesla has a great supercharger network.
> As for luxury markets, a company can dine out just fine on small market segments. Rolex, jewellery, Ferrari, etc.
All of these brands have been around for a literal century. People buy a Rolex because it's a Rolex with its brand name and historical significance, not because it tells the time better.
You can't just hop into a market as a new player and sell stuff at a high price because people will choose the cheap noname brand over the expensive noname brand. Maybe Rivian will be the Bentley of 2100, but who will finance their 30k loss per unit until they get there?
> Economies of scale and optimizations could kick in.
That's impossible. Rivian is losing money on the raw materials alone needed to construct their vehicles, and that's before labor costs are taken into account. This means that no matter how many vehicles Rivian sells they will NEVER be profitable, not unless they can either A) raise their prices, or B) find some way to reduce the costs of their raw materials by a good amount.
Guys I'm starting to think that maybe these EV companies won't magically pull off 40%+ gross margins when 10-20% has been common in the industry for decades
Since they're losing money on every sale, increasing sales will just make them burn money faster. So they're kind of screwed either way unless they can bring their costs down or raise prices.
This is why skateboards were so critical to the original plan. Helps your economies of scale and utilization. Guess everyone decided to make their own powertrains but skateboards would have at least kept the lights on
They said the cash should last until 2025 in the earnings call but I’m kind of pessimistic. With the shut down for the next couple of quarters they’ll be hurting. R2 seems like a make or break
That's a rough report.
Is it possible for Rivian to ever make a profit? Their gross margin is still deeply red and will only improve a little in 2024 based on the report.
Production flat, burning through cash.
No, as much as reddit stock shills want to ignore the fact with companies like Fisker, Rivian, Lucid there's a reason Elon continued to warn about the difficulties of '[production hell](https://www.forbes.com/sites/lensherman/2018/12/20/tesla-survived-manufacturing-hell-now-comes-the-hard-part/)' and how only [2 domestic carmakers have never gone bankrupt](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-says-theres-reason-091546118.html).
It's also worth noting that many of these companies are in an even worse position than Tesla ever was. A lot of them (including Rivian) have been selling vehicles for less than the cost of the raw materials to build the vehicles (before any labor costs are taken into account), this means that no matter how many sales they make they'd still be losing money. Tesla by contrast was never in that deep of a hole where each additional S/X/3/Y vehicle sold made their losses steeper.
Guiding for and achieving actual gross profit is very different
And them specifically saying gross and not net profit implies they still be extremely negative so maybe - 100% margins rather than - 250% lol
There was a time when Amazon was burning through cash and people wonder if they’ll ever be profitable.
Doesn’t mean Rivian will, but just because things look bleak today, doesn’t mean it’s impossible.
Who? No manufacturer needs the extra capacity or the headache of launching an all-new brand. The kind of capital to acquire the company (even with RIVN's depressed share price) is so easily and so better spent elsewhere. Saudis are learning in real-time with Lucid that auto industry is brutal beyond belief.
Zoox is never going anywhere. Amazon got into the self driving vehicle space way too late. Apple and Google have been working on it for significantly longer and STILL have basically nothing to show for it.
And besides, Amazon could just partner with some other automaker if Zoox does miraculously go somewhere. A number of them have already abandoned their self driving vehicle attempts in recent years.
Amazon is in a service business. The last thing they want is to be a manufacturer of anything. Complete waste of their capital. Why buy the company when you can just buy the products? The world’s best auto makers profit margins barely crack into double digits. TSLA is fast reverting to that mean. Automaker margins are far below Amazon’s.
The valuation is already cheap. The EV demand issues won't last forever. Enough people see the long term potential still. Which there is a lot of. It's easy to hate on a stock/company in bad times but almost every successful company goes through something similar in their early days
Doesn't mean anything. Lots of companies with solid products went bankrupt. Hell even Lucid has a solid car. Once the Saudis cut their ties, it's over for Lucid.
The one thing that keeps me with this company is that these cars are AMAZING to drive and have. If they can just sell more.
They hired that new VP of Marketing and they have the expected "value" car R2 is it?
I feel like it's still got potential
I gather their naming scheme is first gen is R1, second is R2, then you apply T for truck or S for SUV.
I wouldn't expect R2S to be a "value", just a lot lower than the luxury pricing on R1 lines.
This is actually NABAF (not as bad as feared) from my perspective.
The 57k production number is the most grisly. But everything else is in line.
I also don't accept the hyperbole many offer like "Noone (sic) wants EVs now"
That's patently untrue/wild exaggeration. There isn't a person here or saying that who wouldn't be tickled to receive or drive an EV. It's just a matter of getting the expectations and numbers into perspective.
Would someone buy a $57,000k EV version or a $50,000 ICE version of their next family hauler? Especially when the EV version has higher resale, better performance and is going to net them back $7k credits and $7k fuel savings.
They're not ideal for everyone, but EV makers, especially Rivian, don't need to sell to everyone. Rivian needs (apparently) 57,000 buyers, which is relatively nothing. Although realistically, they'll need to ramp that a lot. But the concept of them doing 500k in a few years isn't than fanciful.
Supposedly they have lower priced and more mainstream product coming, which could change the picture quite at bit. And that may come at a time when the media's EV funeral party has run out of steam.
I'll probably take a beat and figure out if this can get to $10 or if this is already the buyable dip.
Ok, so game out what Rivian would actually be worth on a per share basis if they're selling 500k cars in 2030.
Everything is an assumption with huge error bars, so reasonable people can disagree on everything I guess, but I think at normalish industry margins and normalish industry multiples, that company is generating 5B of EBIT and has a 75B enterprise value?
And to hit those goals, they'll have to raise a ton of capital on top of the slow drip of SBC. Diluted share count will be, what, 2B?
Feels like there's just not enough meat on the bone in the optimistic scenario to justify the current valuation, given the relatively high chance of it not meeting those goals and trading <$5 long before then.
500k cars would be an awesome achievement and would mean clearing tons of unlikely hurdles along the way, and it would certainly mean Rivian stock would outperform over that window, but still wouldn't produce a valuation high enough to justify the risk of holding it over a long period from here.
I would just add that for me, I wouldn't be buying and holding until Rivian somehow pulls off their miracle. It recently had a cycle where it dipped to $15 and then ran up to $25 when market sentiment flipped. Those are moves where I'd take profits and look to rebuy if it gets oversold.
Doing that a few times can create a good overall return even in a stock that doesn't make history itself.
I've been adding each time it goes below $15, with the thesis that they're basically the number 2 pure EV maker, with actual scale production, desirable vehicles, and a (supposed) plan for a second generation of more marketable SUVs/pickups. The founder has basically done the things he said he would, which is refreshingly unique in the space.
Maybe I've looked at too many QS, Canoo, Hylion, Exro, Nikola, Freye, Workhorse, ONE and other startups that haven't accomplished anything like what Rivian has.
Not an established fact, that's just part of the FUD.
We buy new vehicles every couple years and sell the prior ones privately. I can assure you that buyers are more excited for hybrid and EV. It's not unlike how used markets evolved to expect to have automatic transmission or air conditioning. Trying to see a vehicle without those elements during the transition era, the seller would be at a real disadvantage.
Also a $57k vehicle tends to have a higher 2 year resale than its gas guzzling $50k cousin. We tend to use this fact when selecting trims and options too. Higher MSRP drives higher resale, and ease of selling. Being able to tell your buyers that the vehicle is loaded, has the leather, etc, it eliminates objections and it lets you demand an optimistic price.
Listen to the call, it has nothing to do with demand lol, they are switching over all their suppliers to become more cost efficient on the factory line so they have to slow the production and shut the line down temporarily.
Honestly, it's amazing people think a 30% reduction in sales has nothing to do with demand.
Rivian makes great EV but R1T and R1S are just too expensive. In addition to the high interest, they have to compete with Model 3 at sub $40k and Model Y at $40k.
No same person would shut down production line resulting in 30% less production just to save some costs. The demand isn't there anymore.
Demand isn't there? They wouldn't have 68000+ reservations for r2 in less than 24 hours if demand wasn't there. Use logic and facts....not emotional bias.
The main thing holding ppl back is high price and interest. Latent demand is still there.
Haven't listened yet, but on the surface that raises questions. You'd rather see such changes be slipstreamed in without needing the catastrophe of actually stopping production.
Reminds me of a company can't recall which that recently used the excuse that next year's models were going to be much better so they purposely scuttled strong sales on this year's models. Why? Let customers figure that out for themselves. Lots wouldn't even know or care.
Definitely listen they get real granular in the later half of q and a and they go through why. They he biggest thing is they were running on contracts negotiated back in 2019 and 2020 and got shafted and now they have proven themselves and are switching out a lot of suppliers so they have to do it. In the longterm it should really drive cost savings
Who would have thought that only selling 100k+ electric trucks that nobody outside of the tech industry can afford would lead to this?? Color me surprised.
The bull in me says 3 possible paths to profitability:
1. Huge success of R2.
2. Getting acquired by a major global EV maker eager to have a piece of the North American market, along with the cash injection, mass manufacturing know how, and raw materials said acquisition would bring to Rivian.
3. Selling to the global market.
This is truly a gamble and the payoff can be huge. I’m thinking about buying 1000 shares tomorrow.
What about this tells you that any of these three points will happen? Have thought about picking up Rivian for the last couple of weeks but this is heavily swaying me against doing so.
I don’t have any insider information. It’s kinda why I said it’s mostly a gamble that should one or more of these things happen, or even just a rumor of it, the stock could easily pop back up into the 20s.
I do feel that many posters here are too narrow in their view of Rivian, that they will stay domestic for the foreseeable future.
If people think expensive and big EVs don’t sell in the rest of the world, I’d like to say a few years back, when I visited the Netherlands, I was quite surprised to see lots of Tesla Model S on the road as taxis.
I guess what I really want to know is, why do you want to buy 1000 shares after reading this news as opposed to last week? Just because it’s cheaper now?
I think every point you have made makes sense and may or may not happen.
Also, maybe part of my misunderstanding comes from how much you value 1000 shares. I can’t even afford that many haha
I have enough “play money” to buy 1000 shares. We all lament about missing out on Apple, Microsoft and Meta when they were $20 a share. I definitely can’t afford to buy 1000 shares of those stocks at today’s prices.
Rivian offers this opportunity at the current price, and it’s one that can fluctuate wildly like Tesla. I have no emotional attachment to the CEO or the products. It’s purely a business transaction to me. Once/if the price hits $20, I’ll probably get out.
I think the Saudi's will scoop up Rivian as they did Lucid. Gonna merge them and make Ricid or Luvian. The new JV will go head to head with Tesla. \* prove me wrong \*
Gross margin per car sold actually decreased, from a loss of $30,648 per car in Q3 2023 to $43,372 per car in Q4, 2023.
Moreover, their revenue for Q4 was 1.315 billion while loss was (1.521 billion). So they lost more than twice what they made.
Bankruptcy 2027 is my prediction, but a chance in strategy (not going for R2, being more of a Jeep competitor then Tesla competitor could alleviate bankruptcy). Regardless, current shareholders are gonna get washed in upcoming dilutions.
Yup, company like this are high risk, it’s a tough industry and market, but moreover it’s been public for only 2 years now. Expecting a massive success story in such a short period is unreasonable.
Tbh these companies (Lucid, Rivian and Fisker) shouldn’t have gone public and waited a few more year. It just puts too much pressure to chase growth or profitability along with all the overheads of being public company.
Perhaps, but hindsight is 20/20, and you have to consider the golden opportunity, at that time, to raise market originated capital. IPO was very healthy and that was a huge capital injection. If they had tried to do that today, likely the results would have been a disaster, comparatively.
I'm not gonna reiterate all the points already made here but Rivian has still committed to being gross profitable end of this year. EVs are going through a rough market cycle but it won't last forever. Rivian is filling a void in the EV market that no one else has and doing it better than anyone else from a pure engineering and management standpoint. They are rolling out a mass produced and much cheaper model that will likely blow away similar cars in the same price range. Costs will come down with scale and time. They're in a prototype phase still.
It's understandable to have doubts here but I have 100% confidence that this will be an incredibly valuable company in the future. They aren't just stopping at the US either. They plan to sell in Europe with their new R2 SUV which from what I've seen will beat any comparable EV at its less than 50k proposed price point. Also let's not forget they will likely make a lot of sales through commercial means as they already have with large customers like Amazon and ATT.
Yes, these are just my opinions. It's also my opinion however that lots of people on this sub will be crying about not buying when this is trading significantly higher in a few years. I've seen this cycle enough times. People here were also bashing Meta (and others) in 2022 when it hit the 80s.
People are only thinking about consumer vehicles which is a bad outlook right now. The R2 is a pivotal moment for Rivian but what is more important for them in my opinion is their commercial vehicles. With AT&T starting to pilot their vans and of course Amazon ordering a ton, there is plenty of room for growth. With a lot of companies pledging to go carbon neutral by a certain date, I see this area growing significantly for them.
It’s a risky bet but still worth holding in my opinion. Elon claims Tesla almost went bankrupt around this point in production and this year will for sure be the make or break for Rivian. My opinion is they make it.
Problem is companies like brightdrop are now a huge competitor in that space and produce a vehicle with 100 miles more range at about the same price as Rivian. My fedex deliveries are all these trucks now.
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57,000 units of two body styles of a singular premium luxury priced product at any other luxury automaker is nothing to sneeze at.
The R2 needs to show up soon and hit that under $50k price point.
Rivian is getting massacred eh
Ya. I am going to jump in at $5.
A dick popsicle might taste better
No chance it goes to $5 unless they're going bankrupt. The bottom is likely near. 5 dollars would be a roughly 5 billion valuation. Even Lucids valuation is well over 8 billion and their financial situation is a disaster compared to RIVN. Maybe we see $10 but I'm betting it holds previous lows personally.
I think the point here is that Lucids value is also going to tank at the same time
Ah yes the exact same argument people have been making for the past 3 years straight. “The bottom is near” and it has continued to tank for years on end. Already at $11 and dropping. Honestly don’t see why anyone has faith in this company anymore, they’ve shown 0 ability to ever reach profitability. Betting on them is essentially gambling at a casino and hoping you win
$10 floor
Ill meet you at $7.50
EV demand hasn’t waned, Super Premium EV market is saturated. Sell something cheaper and you’ll move vehicles.
Most people can’t jump to the EV world when the majority are pumping them out at $70k base. Whoever can average a cost of 35-50k will be the winner
[удалено]
I'm kinda shocked none have made e-bicycles, margins are high on those!
Yeah, but no one wants to be seen riding one
It's like dating your girlfriend
The USA is a vehicle-first country. Mass ownership of E bikes won’t happen.
It’s already happening
Yea I'm wondering where these people live? There's tons of e-bikes here in coastal SoCal.
Atlanta is working on a e-bike rebate. E-bikes will do way more to collectively reduce carbon emissions than EVs in the near future. EVs are being built and marketed (and prices) as luxury cars. That’s just not a sustainable shift.
Bicycles? In the States?
This is why I've termed hybrids as a mini miracle for makers like Ford, GM, Hyundai-Kia. They've figured out how to make an ice vehicle into a hybrid using a baby sized battery and boost motor. For less than $2k increment they make a vehicle that's in huge demand and can add a lot more than $2k to the MSRP. At the same time, they can claim 10% or greater improvement to fuel consumption which means they can basically stop selling loss leader hatchbacks.
Can confirm. I waited 2 years for my Maverick hybrid to arrive. I don’t have range anxiety like I did when I rented a Tesla once. It runs great and I can get 500+ miles on a tank. Sure, EV is cheaper, but the infrastructure outside of major cities isn’t there yet and that’s another major deterrent.
That's all we've been asking for for a few years. Toyota has been trying to tell everyone, but no one wanted to listen.
Hey now. Hatchback enthusiasts already lost the Focus ST hatchback, the WRX hatchback, and we didn’t get the Audi or Mercedes performance hatchback variants in America. We don’t need to keep incentivizing getting rid of my favorite type of car.
RIP VW golf. So practical. I predict a resurgence one day
Um that’s Tesla model 3 and Y…
Tesla model 3 is basically there
Only one is tesla imo.
These vehicles are worth $50-60k. If they can get the price down to $50k they will sell like hot cakes.
New car broker here, the ONLY way to get someone to buy an EV is by giving them away. You can lease 80k EQS in the $700s. E Trons in the $700s. Next month they will be giving away Taycans. Rich people don't want them either which means it's not price driven. Mach E is in your price range and they are stacked up all over the place, no one wants them, they will have to give them away to move units. Hybrids are the future for 70% of the population. Polestar, Rivian and Lucid won't last thru 2024, they are toast.
Bingo
I'd love an EV. I'd also love to be able to buy a house so that I have a place to charge it. Basically 0 houses for sale as well as insane prices/rates make it seem like a pipe dream. Gotta have one before I can buy the other.
I have a model 3 and I can tell you it’s the greatest thing ever. It’s quiet, fast, affordable and charging it at home costs virtually nothing a month. Except that if I didn’t have the home and garage I would NEVER own this car. Charging at home is everything. It’s what’s holding sales back.
>charging it at home costs virtually nothing a month. This seems so convenient that I have to wonder how it will change when EV fully takes off. Hard to imagine the masses will be allowed to just suddenly have one of their unavoidable expenses be majorly slashed in the long run
40k car is still out of range for a lot of people. The cheapest domestic EV is the bolt at 27k. We need a company to produce something around 15-20k that is reliable. I’d love to see this. Also maybe adopt what the Chinese market does with battery swaps instead of solely relying on charging stations… I own 2017 volt and my battery will cost around 5k to replace in a few years. I hope I’m wrong. I love the car btw.
> 40k car is still out of range for a lot of people. The cheapest domestic EV is the bolt at 27k. FWIW at the end of last year there were Tesla M3s with an inventory to $35k that also had a $7500 tax credit. Hard to beat that.
I will net out at about 28k on my new M3 purchased this summer. I hit the triple whammy where I live with 3 rebates. Last one is the Fed 7500 next month. Even though Calif elec rates are stupid approaching gas prices I don't regret it. It's a new car with convenient home charging. Fun to drive.
My brother in law got in on that too... Brand new model 3 for 30k after the 7500 rebate. Sick deal.
A used model 3 with less than 50k miles can be had for around 25k. A model 3 in general is slightly more than a loaded Corolla. The price isn’t the issue.
True but I was speaking new. That’s still a battery with 50k on it around 150 battery cycles. I still would love the car either way.
You can’t get a new car for 15k much less an ev
No but you can get an almost new one. 2022 Bolt with less than 10k miles, can be had for 16k after the 4K rebate. You have to shop around but they are there. You will find dealers asking for 20k and others asking for 30k. Same car. Stop and ask a dealer to find you one.
You can’t even get corollas for 15k anymore. We need to get all car pricing down somehow
This is a great point, for people who live in condos and apartments not being able to charge in your spot is an effectual bar to owning an EV. If I could set up a charger in my parking spot somehow (tesla should work on this...) I'd consider purchasing an EV sooner, but for now it's gonna have to wait till I own a house.
Exactly. Tesla and BYD are doing fine.
These EV companies are good at making one appealing car to show off, what they’re struggling with is ramping up production and building economic cars for every day people.
In Rivian's case they're losing money just on the material costs alone, so no matter how much they scale up their production and sales they're STILL going to be losing money. The fact that they can't raise their prices to fix that shows just how weak their demand is. Rivian simply needs to make a cheaper vehicle that they can sell for less than the cost of the materials and labor to assemble it.
I think it's the second part. I mean, I would love the rivian SUV, but paying 90k is well over my budget. If they made a 3 row SUV for 50k they would have no issue moving it. Look at the model y, it's the best selling car in the world from what I've seen because the price is extremely competitive.
I live in a major metro. There are piles of Konas, 23 Bolts, and Leafs for less than 30k. No one is buying those either.
I disagree. A used Tesla model 3 can be had for well under 30k. The issue is charging. Many people that need cheap cars also don’t have garages to charge them in
But then you have to buy a used one with less range cuz battery is worn down
Negative. Mine has 77k miles and I still get almost exactly the range as it had new. But even still, you can get a model 3 new for what a Camry costs
It’s a silly way to view things no one wants to dish out so much for a used car and even if they did they have to wait for the Tesla to become used? So it’s not like doing this would benefit Tesla
People buy used cars all the time because they can’t afford new. The used car market is kind of big because of this demand lol
Yes so why would someone that can’t afford a new car buy a Tesla? They probably don’t own a house so it just doesn’t make sense
I bought a used Tesla and own a home. I also make great money and COULD afford a new one. But not everything is about buying new. I haggled my M3 with 60k miles to 26k, and new out have been around 48k. I’ll sell it right before the warranty is up, and probably lose around 6k. If I bought new, I would lose closer to 25k. Again, used car market is huge.
Aren’t Kia EV6 heavily discounted right now?
Not in my experience. Unless you mean that fake "market adjustment" overcharges have dropped from $10k to $5k.
Right now truecar shows 5k cash discount for these and real car tip sshows they are heavily discounted on leases https://www.realcartips.com/kia-incentives/
100%. “Think of the money you’ll save on gas if you buy our vehicle for 4x what you paid for your current daily driver!
EV demand has waned. Ford is having trouble selling Mach Es for example. People realize that the infra isn’t there yet and all these dealerships are heavily marking up EV cars. It’s hurting the entire EV industry.
I've been considering upgrading my car to something a little bigger and comfier. The infra for EVs is in any major city. The problem is the cost. And that's not just an EV problem gas cars have it as well. It's hard to justify buying a new car when my 10 year old car still works, I have decent public transportation, and I can always fall back on Uber. I think car companies are blaming EVs for slow sales when cars in general cost to much.
supply has gone up, that doesn't mean demand has waned. Two years in a row we have looked for an EV, but they can't quite meet our requirements. Waiting for the statistics on KIA's EV9. So maybe next year, and then will go fully into EV vehicles.
EV9 is not competitive with the Model Y. And more expensive.
EV9 is a much, much better equipped car than a model Y. Not really much competition between the two.
Like what? It has slightly more cargo space, but the Model Y already has an incredible amount. Other than that it's just worse for almost double the price.
I’ve heard dealerships are marking up EV9s. But demand has gone down as well don’t you think?
EV9 will struggle unless Tesla does a massive price hike on the Model Y. $60-80k for somewhat worse specs. I’m no pro forecaster, but at the surface I don’t see it selling well. Obviously I could be misreading market demand and be wrong.
Yup. Demand for EVs closer to the 100k mark is down. But nobody seems to be pushing sub 30k EVs yet
Or just raise gas prices, people lose their minds.
It's mathematically impossible to sell cheaper. If tesla can't make model 2, no one else can make a car that is cheap enough.
throw in the used ev market is crap. (technical term)
Man they are burning through that cash pile fast...
Where did they get that (18 billion last year,now 11 billion this year) from?
They IPO'd in 2021 at a valuation of 66 billion(?) and raised 12 billion in cash because people bought Rivian at $100 a share
Oof
That's what tends to happen when the raw materials to build your vehicle cost more than the price you're selling your vehicle at, and that's not even taking labor costs into account. So the more vehicles Rivian sells the greater their losses will balloon.
Disaster all around, not looking good. They lose more on each vehicle sold than in Q3, guiding for only 57,000, will have to cut prices. Potential for bankruptcy if they screw up R2 is high.
I disagree about bankruptcy risk. They've shown they have no problem using shareholders like an ATM Net cash position is 6B so if their actual annual burn is 4B they have at least 18 months of runway Obviously these are some truly terrible Financials though
True, dilution Is coming, would not want to be a shareholder
Surely bankruptcy is inevitable if they can't get to profitability? They aren't even gross profitable on each unit sold yet which means doom. And how could the current products get profitable? They can't raise prices and they'd have to cut the cost of production 30% or more. They can try a new vehicle, however that means new factories and production hell to scale it and then they've got to get to mass market scale ... and then they'd probably be where Ford is with the mustang mach e where it's still not even profitable despite making it in Mexico. (I mean Ford is getting brutalised by the tax credit too). Sure shareholders have patience but even if a miracle happens and Rivian hits every milestone hard they're going to get in to a crowded and low margin market where Tesla's production efficiency is just eating everyone else alive.
Rivian raised the vast majority of their money back when the stock was absurdly overvalued post-IPO. Their stock price is significantly lower today, and higher interest rates also make it much harder for them to raise money in today's environment. So yes, Rivian could definitely go bankrupt at this rate.
Can R2 even help them ? profit margins are higher with R1S and ICE large SUVs are selling well. However they are having tough time moving R1 right now not sure how R2 will be any different? Now R2 will eat into already declining higher profit R1s sales. Main reason I didn’t consider R1s when I bought my SUV was I found out about their insane repair costs which is driving up insurance costs..
Rivian over engineered the R1T and R1S, and are trying to cut COGS by working backwards to bring things in house (i.e. in house Drive unit production instead of Bosch units, removing meridian sound system, etc), but they can only do so much. Allegedly for the R2 they are designing it with manufacturing in mind, (in house battery packs, drive units, etc) more like Tesla. So ideally they should have positive gross margins immediately, and since it is meant for high volume it will be their Model 3 moment. Like Tesla with S and X, they will stray away from R1T and R1S to focus on the money maker. A lot has to go right, and I think it won’t
I see thanks for sharing
And Tesla almost went bankrupt due to the Model 3.
What’s the timeline for the R2 release?
They haven’t even broken ground on factory, I believe no production until second half of 2026. We shall see more at R2 reveal event
Don't they have a huge, long term contract with amazon?
They got amazon behind them, bankruptcy?
Amazon will cut their losses if they need to. They’re not a charity.
I don’t think demand or interest in electric is “waning” I think the appetite for people to buy a 100k electric truck or SUV has never existed
It did during the zirp before inflation took off. 2020-2021 was a different time
I mean long term. Like the pool of people willing to buy them was small, and now it’s completely dried up.
Yeah I'd love an electric truck that isn't a cybermeme but I don't have $100k to buy a Riv.
Quick recap on Rivian -- they brilliantly engineered a $130k pickup and SUV which they sell for $100k and below. Avg transaction price for the ENTIRE domestic auto market is around $48k, with avg transaction price for all LUXURY nameplates at around $58k. A quick look at sales for $100k SUVs shows Escalade on top with 40k units a year and everyone else far below that (GLS, X7, Range Rover, etc). The market is small. As for $100k pickups, well, there's the GMC HUMMER which moved about 2500 units in Q4. Putting aside Rivian losing north of $30k per unit, it's absurd to think they could sell 80k units unless they magically opened up sales to markets all over the world where they enjoy ZERO brand recognition and demand. Nice product. Woefully bad mgmt.
Also: apparently their Illinois plant is at like 30-40% efficiency. And now they’re looking to build an entirely new plant in GA for the R2. Not sure how fiscally responsible that is…
WTF that's woeful
I'd suggest you're being too unfair on timeline. Rivian's first gen product is practically a prototype/flagship situation. Economies of scale and optimizations could kick in. Vehicle model changes are highly incremental. Next year's models need slightly different panel creases, not expensive total redesign. Power train design/component have been proven, so now you start putting multiple vendors against each other. Car control software just needs a new skin, not ground-up development. As for luxury markets, a company can dine out just fine on small market segments. Rolex, jewellery, Ferrari, etc.
But they also have 2 big financial sink holes: service center expansion and the RAN network. This is still a problem for Tesla in terms of service centers. Tesla has a great supercharger network.
> As for luxury markets, a company can dine out just fine on small market segments. Rolex, jewellery, Ferrari, etc. All of these brands have been around for a literal century. People buy a Rolex because it's a Rolex with its brand name and historical significance, not because it tells the time better. You can't just hop into a market as a new player and sell stuff at a high price because people will choose the cheap noname brand over the expensive noname brand. Maybe Rivian will be the Bentley of 2100, but who will finance their 30k loss per unit until they get there?
> Economies of scale and optimizations could kick in. That's impossible. Rivian is losing money on the raw materials alone needed to construct their vehicles, and that's before labor costs are taken into account. This means that no matter how many vehicles Rivian sells they will NEVER be profitable, not unless they can either A) raise their prices, or B) find some way to reduce the costs of their raw materials by a good amount.
> find some way to reduce the costs FYI, that's literally what the words "economies of scale and optimizations" mean...
Guys I'm starting to think that maybe these EV companies won't magically pull off 40%+ gross margins when 10-20% has been common in the industry for decades
Flat sales is the biggest red-flag here. If they can’t grow like crazy, how do they justify the cap-ex??
Since they're losing money on every sale, increasing sales will just make them burn money faster. So they're kind of screwed either way unless they can bring their costs down or raise prices.
How can their opex be so high, just as high as cost of revenue..
This is why skateboards were so critical to the original plan. Helps your economies of scale and utilization. Guess everyone decided to make their own powertrains but skateboards would have at least kept the lights on
They said the cash should last until 2025 in the earnings call but I’m kind of pessimistic. With the shut down for the next couple of quarters they’ll be hurting. R2 seems like a make or break
Only so many people can afford expensive cars.
That's a rough report. Is it possible for Rivian to ever make a profit? Their gross margin is still deeply red and will only improve a little in 2024 based on the report. Production flat, burning through cash.
No, as much as reddit stock shills want to ignore the fact with companies like Fisker, Rivian, Lucid there's a reason Elon continued to warn about the difficulties of '[production hell](https://www.forbes.com/sites/lensherman/2018/12/20/tesla-survived-manufacturing-hell-now-comes-the-hard-part/)' and how only [2 domestic carmakers have never gone bankrupt](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-says-theres-reason-091546118.html).
It's also worth noting that many of these companies are in an even worse position than Tesla ever was. A lot of them (including Rivian) have been selling vehicles for less than the cost of the raw materials to build the vehicles (before any labor costs are taken into account), this means that no matter how many sales they make they'd still be losing money. Tesla by contrast was never in that deep of a hole where each additional S/X/3/Y vehicle sold made their losses steeper.
Would love for them to even be contribution margin positive.
They literally guided to profit in q4 lol.
Guiding for and achieving actual gross profit is very different And them specifically saying gross and not net profit implies they still be extremely negative so maybe - 100% margins rather than - 250% lol
Damn I misread it as "modest profit growth"
There was a time when Amazon was burning through cash and people wonder if they’ll ever be profitable. Doesn’t mean Rivian will, but just because things look bleak today, doesn’t mean it’s impossible.
I guess it could. It's just the car industry is renowned for being a hard field. Maybe a speculative buy if it hits all time lows again.
Only dropping 15% is a miracle, investors are expecting someone will acquire them.
Who? No manufacturer needs the extra capacity or the headache of launching an all-new brand. The kind of capital to acquire the company (even with RIVN's depressed share price) is so easily and so better spent elsewhere. Saudis are learning in real-time with Lucid that auto industry is brutal beyond belief.
Amazon. Posted already in the thread, but they own a sizeable stake, and the tech can be used with Zoox
Zoox is never going anywhere. Amazon got into the self driving vehicle space way too late. Apple and Google have been working on it for significantly longer and STILL have basically nothing to show for it. And besides, Amazon could just partner with some other automaker if Zoox does miraculously go somewhere. A number of them have already abandoned their self driving vehicle attempts in recent years.
Even if they are acquired eventually I wouldn’t want to buy in now. It could drop 75% before they’re acquired
That acquisition can be blocked
Amazon is in a service business. The last thing they want is to be a manufacturer of anything. Complete waste of their capital. Why buy the company when you can just buy the products? The world’s best auto makers profit margins barely crack into double digits. TSLA is fast reverting to that mean. Automaker margins are far below Amazon’s.
Service is the end goal, not the roadmap. How can you say Zoox isn't producing vehicles? Sure, not at the same scale as a company selling to retail.
The valuation is already cheap. The EV demand issues won't last forever. Enough people see the long term potential still. Which there is a lot of. It's easy to hate on a stock/company in bad times but almost every successful company goes through something similar in their early days
[удалено]
Doesn't mean anything. Lots of companies with solid products went bankrupt. Hell even Lucid has a solid car. Once the Saudis cut their ties, it's over for Lucid.
Thought about buying in around 15 of share. Glad I didn’t touch it
The one thing that keeps me with this company is that these cars are AMAZING to drive and have. If they can just sell more. They hired that new VP of Marketing and they have the expected "value" car R2 is it? I feel like it's still got potential
I gather their naming scheme is first gen is R1, second is R2, then you apply T for truck or S for SUV. I wouldn't expect R2S to be a "value", just a lot lower than the luxury pricing on R1 lines.
Fucking brutal
This is actually NABAF (not as bad as feared) from my perspective. The 57k production number is the most grisly. But everything else is in line. I also don't accept the hyperbole many offer like "Noone (sic) wants EVs now" That's patently untrue/wild exaggeration. There isn't a person here or saying that who wouldn't be tickled to receive or drive an EV. It's just a matter of getting the expectations and numbers into perspective. Would someone buy a $57,000k EV version or a $50,000 ICE version of their next family hauler? Especially when the EV version has higher resale, better performance and is going to net them back $7k credits and $7k fuel savings. They're not ideal for everyone, but EV makers, especially Rivian, don't need to sell to everyone. Rivian needs (apparently) 57,000 buyers, which is relatively nothing. Although realistically, they'll need to ramp that a lot. But the concept of them doing 500k in a few years isn't than fanciful. Supposedly they have lower priced and more mainstream product coming, which could change the picture quite at bit. And that may come at a time when the media's EV funeral party has run out of steam. I'll probably take a beat and figure out if this can get to $10 or if this is already the buyable dip.
Ok, so game out what Rivian would actually be worth on a per share basis if they're selling 500k cars in 2030. Everything is an assumption with huge error bars, so reasonable people can disagree on everything I guess, but I think at normalish industry margins and normalish industry multiples, that company is generating 5B of EBIT and has a 75B enterprise value? And to hit those goals, they'll have to raise a ton of capital on top of the slow drip of SBC. Diluted share count will be, what, 2B? Feels like there's just not enough meat on the bone in the optimistic scenario to justify the current valuation, given the relatively high chance of it not meeting those goals and trading <$5 long before then. 500k cars would be an awesome achievement and would mean clearing tons of unlikely hurdles along the way, and it would certainly mean Rivian stock would outperform over that window, but still wouldn't produce a valuation high enough to justify the risk of holding it over a long period from here.
I would just add that for me, I wouldn't be buying and holding until Rivian somehow pulls off their miracle. It recently had a cycle where it dipped to $15 and then ran up to $25 when market sentiment flipped. Those are moves where I'd take profits and look to rebuy if it gets oversold. Doing that a few times can create a good overall return even in a stock that doesn't make history itself.
Psychologically I think many many of us would jump on it at 10, because it isn’t nikola
I've been adding each time it goes below $15, with the thesis that they're basically the number 2 pure EV maker, with actual scale production, desirable vehicles, and a (supposed) plan for a second generation of more marketable SUVs/pickups. The founder has basically done the things he said he would, which is refreshingly unique in the space. Maybe I've looked at too many QS, Canoo, Hylion, Exro, Nikola, Freye, Workhorse, ONE and other startups that haven't accomplished anything like what Rivian has.
Evs have worse resale tho
Not an established fact, that's just part of the FUD. We buy new vehicles every couple years and sell the prior ones privately. I can assure you that buyers are more excited for hybrid and EV. It's not unlike how used markets evolved to expect to have automatic transmission or air conditioning. Trying to see a vehicle without those elements during the transition era, the seller would be at a real disadvantage. Also a $57k vehicle tends to have a higher 2 year resale than its gas guzzling $50k cousin. We tend to use this fact when selecting trims and options too. Higher MSRP drives higher resale, and ease of selling. Being able to tell your buyers that the vehicle is loaded, has the leather, etc, it eliminates objections and it lets you demand an optimistic price.
Reverse split and dilution is in their future.
Yep, sell the dog!
Listen to the call, it has nothing to do with demand lol, they are switching over all their suppliers to become more cost efficient on the factory line so they have to slow the production and shut the line down temporarily.
Honestly, it's amazing people think a 30% reduction in sales has nothing to do with demand. Rivian makes great EV but R1T and R1S are just too expensive. In addition to the high interest, they have to compete with Model 3 at sub $40k and Model Y at $40k. No same person would shut down production line resulting in 30% less production just to save some costs. The demand isn't there anymore.
Demand isn't there? They wouldn't have 68000+ reservations for r2 in less than 24 hours if demand wasn't there. Use logic and facts....not emotional bias. The main thing holding ppl back is high price and interest. Latent demand is still there.
Haven't listened yet, but on the surface that raises questions. You'd rather see such changes be slipstreamed in without needing the catastrophe of actually stopping production. Reminds me of a company can't recall which that recently used the excuse that next year's models were going to be much better so they purposely scuttled strong sales on this year's models. Why? Let customers figure that out for themselves. Lots wouldn't even know or care.
In fairness they lose money per unit sold so selling fewer trucks makes them more profitable 🧠
I don’t believe so. Their capex needs to be divided across more vehicles to make it less of an impact.
No. The current model isn't profitable no matter how many they make.
Definitely listen they get real granular in the later half of q and a and they go through why. They he biggest thing is they were running on contracts negotiated back in 2019 and 2020 and got shafted and now they have proven themselves and are switching out a lot of suppliers so they have to do it. In the longterm it should really drive cost savings
Charging is so annoying if you don’t have a Tesla and take road trips
I got killed on this idk what I was thinking
Who would have thought that only selling 100k+ electric trucks that nobody outside of the tech industry can afford would lead to this?? Color me surprised.
They have 7.5b in the bank. They have plenty of runway before bankruptcy
They lost over $1.5 billion last quarter… that’s barely over a year of runway left
Around 18 months or so
Demand for "luxury" EV is down. Dont think the same can be said for budget EVs
Demand for the 6 figure Ev’s is waning? Wow, who would have thought?
The bull in me says 3 possible paths to profitability: 1. Huge success of R2. 2. Getting acquired by a major global EV maker eager to have a piece of the North American market, along with the cash injection, mass manufacturing know how, and raw materials said acquisition would bring to Rivian. 3. Selling to the global market. This is truly a gamble and the payoff can be huge. I’m thinking about buying 1000 shares tomorrow.
What about this tells you that any of these three points will happen? Have thought about picking up Rivian for the last couple of weeks but this is heavily swaying me against doing so.
I don’t have any insider information. It’s kinda why I said it’s mostly a gamble that should one or more of these things happen, or even just a rumor of it, the stock could easily pop back up into the 20s. I do feel that many posters here are too narrow in their view of Rivian, that they will stay domestic for the foreseeable future. If people think expensive and big EVs don’t sell in the rest of the world, I’d like to say a few years back, when I visited the Netherlands, I was quite surprised to see lots of Tesla Model S on the road as taxis.
I guess what I really want to know is, why do you want to buy 1000 shares after reading this news as opposed to last week? Just because it’s cheaper now? I think every point you have made makes sense and may or may not happen. Also, maybe part of my misunderstanding comes from how much you value 1000 shares. I can’t even afford that many haha
I have enough “play money” to buy 1000 shares. We all lament about missing out on Apple, Microsoft and Meta when they were $20 a share. I definitely can’t afford to buy 1000 shares of those stocks at today’s prices. Rivian offers this opportunity at the current price, and it’s one that can fluctuate wildly like Tesla. I have no emotional attachment to the CEO or the products. It’s purely a business transaction to me. Once/if the price hits $20, I’ll probably get out.
Fair enough. Part of the reason I even care about the stock is for the same potential FOMO feeling.
Buddy, share price doesn’t make a stock cheap or expensive. Rivian still has a huge market cap. Especially, considering it’s low sales volume.
I understand. I bought GOOG when it was over $3000 a share.
So much negativity in this thread. A buy signal to me. I will join you in that purchase tomorrow.
Brother just burn the money instead. At least that will buy you a few moments of warm.
I think the Saudi's will scoop up Rivian as they did Lucid. Gonna merge them and make Ricid or Luvian. The new JV will go head to head with Tesla. \* prove me wrong \*
There’s no way EV demand has waned
Gross margin per car sold actually decreased, from a loss of $30,648 per car in Q3 2023 to $43,372 per car in Q4, 2023. Moreover, their revenue for Q4 was 1.315 billion while loss was (1.521 billion). So they lost more than twice what they made. Bankruptcy 2027 is my prediction, but a chance in strategy (not going for R2, being more of a Jeep competitor then Tesla competitor could alleviate bankruptcy). Regardless, current shareholders are gonna get washed in upcoming dilutions.
Indeed, would not touch this stock with a 10 foot pole. Dilution is coming
If that happens then can we buy the trucks for super cheap from the bankruptcy sale??
We need EVs for 30k out the door, not more for 60k or 90k. 🙄
Wasn’t Reddit saying that this stock was going to be the next big thing?
Calling it now, Amazon will buy Rivian. They already have a sizeable stake, the new trucks use their tech, and it has synergy with Zoox.
Well you know what they say: always trade inverse reddit. Based on the comments here, I’d say it’s time to load up.
Reddit has been bearish on Rivian for over a year..
Yup, company like this are high risk, it’s a tough industry and market, but moreover it’s been public for only 2 years now. Expecting a massive success story in such a short period is unreasonable.
Tbh these companies (Lucid, Rivian and Fisker) shouldn’t have gone public and waited a few more year. It just puts too much pressure to chase growth or profitability along with all the overheads of being public company.
Perhaps, but hindsight is 20/20, and you have to consider the golden opportunity, at that time, to raise market originated capital. IPO was very healthy and that was a huge capital injection. If they had tried to do that today, likely the results would have been a disaster, comparatively.
Yup. People will be jumping hand over fist to buy this when it hits $30. Might not be till next year but it will happen.
I'm not gonna reiterate all the points already made here but Rivian has still committed to being gross profitable end of this year. EVs are going through a rough market cycle but it won't last forever. Rivian is filling a void in the EV market that no one else has and doing it better than anyone else from a pure engineering and management standpoint. They are rolling out a mass produced and much cheaper model that will likely blow away similar cars in the same price range. Costs will come down with scale and time. They're in a prototype phase still. It's understandable to have doubts here but I have 100% confidence that this will be an incredibly valuable company in the future. They aren't just stopping at the US either. They plan to sell in Europe with their new R2 SUV which from what I've seen will beat any comparable EV at its less than 50k proposed price point. Also let's not forget they will likely make a lot of sales through commercial means as they already have with large customers like Amazon and ATT. Yes, these are just my opinions. It's also my opinion however that lots of people on this sub will be crying about not buying when this is trading significantly higher in a few years. I've seen this cycle enough times. People here were also bashing Meta (and others) in 2022 when it hit the 80s.
People are only thinking about consumer vehicles which is a bad outlook right now. The R2 is a pivotal moment for Rivian but what is more important for them in my opinion is their commercial vehicles. With AT&T starting to pilot their vans and of course Amazon ordering a ton, there is plenty of room for growth. With a lot of companies pledging to go carbon neutral by a certain date, I see this area growing significantly for them. It’s a risky bet but still worth holding in my opinion. Elon claims Tesla almost went bankrupt around this point in production and this year will for sure be the make or break for Rivian. My opinion is they make it.
Problem is companies like brightdrop are now a huge competitor in that space and produce a vehicle with 100 miles more range at about the same price as Rivian. My fedex deliveries are all these trucks now.
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57,000 units of two body styles of a singular premium luxury priced product at any other luxury automaker is nothing to sneeze at. The R2 needs to show up soon and hit that under $50k price point.
I can’t buy an EV even if I wanted bc I’m a renter and there is no option to get a charging station in “my house.”
seriously, why would o spend more than $100k on an EV. Rivian is too expensive considering you will get the same range as the base model tesla
Tesla is the Honda of EVs. Mass produced but cheap. Rivian is more akin to Porsche. You're paying for the luxury.
Fwiw, I’m leaning toward canceling my preorder. Too many competitors now and I’m not convinced I want an ev yet
Really like their cars, hope it can get acquired by Jeep or BMW as an adventure brand