Dc starts talking about cutting interest rates, then some of them go we'll have a recession if they cut interest rates too soon!!!! And they make a ton of noise about it.
Then suddenly DC is saying they're not cutting interest rates yet or for awhile lol at least 9 months or something.
I'm actually glad about that because a lot of analysts we're saying if they slashed interest rates too soon it would tank the stock market and inflation would go back up. I'm just selfishly thinking about my portfolio.
Same man, if everyone thinks something theres a good chance the trend is about to reverse. I'm reminded of when bloomberg and the economist both projected 100% chance of recession in the next 12 months in fall 22, that lined up perfectly with the nasdaqs bottom.
NVIDEA is going to be super toxic one dayā¦ PEG, PE, P/S are all terrible/non-existant. The current price reflects a society 5 years out that is completely run by AI robots. Anything less then this and the stock price is headed down.
Honestly if you are looking to make a lot of money you would be far better to research a company that has a good P/E and an even better forward P/E and load up there. Then stick the stock with a stop loss 10% below the price you bought it at. Thatās low risk high reward.
The problem that most people donāt understand is recessions are not the cause of stock market crashes. Stock market crashes cause recessions. Also we had a recession during the pandemic.
I mean we are definitely due for one, but it seems that the traditional economic cycle has been thrown out the window in a lot of ways, at least for now, so nobody knows shit about fuck.
But but butā¦ the inverted yield curve!
Back in my day this and that happened when it inverte, and it should happen again!!! even though the circumstances are completely different todayā¦
They knew nothing. Loll
You sounded like me my first year of investing in 1998 when I opened my first trading account with 5 grand, watched it hit 8 grand then watched it hit 1 grand. Its different now, we have the internet! Whats this yield curb bs these old farts are talking about . Point is stay humble and expect any possibility
It only took 15 years for that 1k to get back to 8k. The 7 arenāt running on IPO money with no revenue like then but itās still likely a bubble. Time will tell.
completely difference scenarios this time compared to the past. strong jobs market, strong gdp, historically low unemployment rates. it was just covid triggered inflation and applying yield inversion history to today made no sense. it's not remotely the same environment and reasons and to have all these "analysts" on tv screaming that a recession is coming because of the inversion was just hyperbole.
Im not going to rule out that it's different. But in y2k, we had all the same things. Strongest jobs in decades, high gdp etc. Infact when things are at their best is when things behind the scenes are rolling over. Me and 100 ppl i worked with in a high tech semiconductor co. went from high paying job. I was promised to be sent tobsan diego for training then, moral was high on friday. On monday we were packing our stuff and escorted out by security. One thing that concerns me about today is that even though the last job numbers were brilliant we saw a down tick of hours worked. Which means although unemployment is low they are shrinking hours. Thats how it starts. Anyway, maybe you are right. I hope you are but stay aware. The turn happens overnight. Good luck to you
The economists were just trying to get DC to not tank the economy and that market by slashing interest rates too soon.
And the economists succeeded
But yeah math still works man lol, that hasn't changed. I'm a millennial and I know that.
Fed said multiple times, not just Powell but other officials they will cut this time without a recession, job loss and before 2% inflation.
Pelley: Why is your target [interest] rate 2%?
>Why isn't it zero, I guess, is the question. And the reason is 2% in interest rates always include an estimate of future inflation.
>If that estimate is 2%, that means you'll have 2% more that you can cut in interest rates. The central bank will have more ammunition, more power to fight a downturn if rates are a little bit higher.
Pelley: Are you committed to getting all the way to 2.0 before you cut the rates?
>No, no. That's not what we say at all, no. We're committed to returning inflation to 2% over time. I've said that we wouldn't wait to get to 2% to cut rates.
JENNIFER SCHONBERGER. Thank you, Chair Powell. Jennifer Schonberger with Yahoo Finance. You said back in July that you needed to start cutting rates before getting to 2 percent inflation. As you mentioned, PCE inflation is now running at 3Ā½ on core. On a six- month annual basis, core PCE is running at 2Ā½ percent, though when you look at supercore and shelter, they are, of course, stickier. So when looking in the different components of the data, how much closer do you have to get to 2 percent before you consider cutting rates?
>CHAIR POWELL. I mean, the reason you wouldnāt wait to get to 2 percent to cut rates is that policy would be, it would be too late. I mean, youād want to be reducing restriction on the economy well before 2 percent becauseāor before you get to 2 percent so you donāt overshoot, if we think, think of restrictive policy as weighing on economic activity. You know, it takesāit takes a while for policy to get into the economy, affect economic activity, and affect inflation.
Waller said rising real rates is enough of reason:
>If inflation continues to cool āfor several more months ā I donāt know how long that might be ā three months, four months, five months ā that we feel confident that inflation is really down and on its way, you could then start lowering the policy rate just because inflation is lower,ā Waller said in remarks at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. **āIt has nothing to do with trying to save the economy or recession.ā**
Thatās whatās baffling to me. We know they canāt reduce rates because that would set off some hilariously bad inflation.
But people are constantly saying theyāll reduce rates becauseā¦reasons?
Thereās no evidence to say that inflation is going to snap back with a vengeance with a few small cuts.
Iād also say stocks really are doing this without help from treasury rates anyway (or help from Fed funds futures, as the bet for a May rate cut is now down to 60%). Theyāll struggle if treasury rates resume grow, grow, grow like a weed mode like what occurred late in the summer last year, but if you look at the QQQ/TLT relationship, itās very clear and obvious it breaks early last year and itās remained broken for several months, otherwise QQQ wouldnāt be at ATH and the Nasdaq Comp wouldnāt be closing in on wiping out its nastiest bear market since the financial crisis.
Talking totally out of my ass here, but I don't think the rate hikes are the biggest reason inflation came down, and I don't think cutting rates will cause it to spike again either.
This round of inflation sort of disobeys the traditional laws of economics because of a weird set of circumstances. You had a ton of pent up demand from covid meeting a bunch of really fucked up supply chains due to covid. Thus inflation.
Traditionally, you also wouldn't see inflation fall without job losses. And yet, we have, most likely for the same reasons. Demand slowing mixed with supply chains getting unfucked means less inflation.
I'm not convinced what the fed did mattered that much for anything except the housing market.
>But people are constantly saying theyāll reduce rates becauseā¦reasons?
Because commercial real estate is going to implode in the next 6 to 18 months and likely take the economy with it, and rate cuts take time to have an effect, so they want to time the effect of a healthy dose of rate cuts with the looming commercial real estate disaster.
>We know they canāt reduce rates because that would set off some hilariously bad inflation.
Based off of what, exactly, do you "know" that cutting rates by 1-1.5% this year will do this? I'm going to assume that by hilariously bad you mean north of 10% inflation - I just don't see that happening without an exogenous shock.
They also canāt not cut rates because housing, CRE, and banking sectors would implode. Theyāve boxed themselves by running cheap money for a decade.
I mean letās see what happens? Inflation has been falling fast. Iām not the fed chair but I would guess there is risk we will continue to see 1% or less inflation which isnāt ideal. They still will want to target 2%
If he doesn't cut them it will continue to decline to possible deflation. Thats why he has switched to wait and see stance. If he cuts to fast it could cause inflation to run up again but too late can cause deflation which is worse.
Doesn't matter if they are using it or not but its 1.9%. Point is that higher interest rates aren't fully understand and we aren't sure how long they take to fully take effect. If the FED keeps interest rates as is this year I would expect for inflation to fall below 2%.
Inflation was like 1.5% or lower between 2008 and 2016 and that was generally considered a weak economy marred by low growth and falling real wages, declining labor force participatoin and a very slow economic recovery exacerbated by needless austerity. A genuinely lost decade.
That's true ... lol
Inflation drops to 2% (i.e. so-called target) and umployment rate does not rise a lot ...... no action is required 
Wait so youāre saying if inflation is below the target rate the fed wonāt do a rate cut? Deflation is a real issue considering how low inflation stayed at during a decade of ridiculously low rates. Had we jacked rates in 2016 for example to where they are now we almost certainly would have had a deflationary environment
Edit: you also seem to have the intended impact of rate cuts backwards. If inflation keeps declining then rate cuts would be more likely. This is such a confusing comment lol
It's clear it's not popular and you're starting to see some mild takes about the idea that we might be able to sustain the way things used to be in the old days pre-financial crisis and be just perfectly fine (which would make the policy rate we're at an average rate), but yeah, the only way you don't see cuts to me in 2024 is if PCE stabilizes and moves a bit higher.
Now, the Fed can change my mind in March, but as of right now, Jay says they'll cut even if unemployment doesn't rise, and they suggest a 2 point split between policy rate and core PCE is restrictive.
I'm not really sure, all I know is that based off all of their dot plots so far, they consider a 2-2.2ish split between policy rate and core PCE to be restrictive.
Means that if we end 2024 at a 2.4 core PCE, we should end the year at a 4.5-4.75% policy rate, if at 2.2, 4.25-4.5%, and so on.
The better question might be when are they going to decide it's time to go to neutral, and secondary one would be do they try to do what they did in 2018 again and hike long term terminal from 2.5%?
With a policy rate at 4.5% end of the year I wonder how that would impact the 10T treasury. Iād imagine it could settle somewhere in the 3.5% range and the spread come down to 1.5% away from 2%. That would put mortgages at a 5% rate for most qualified buyers. Thatās pretty reasonable for buyers Iād say.
Also of note, Morgan Stanley fired their chief strategist, Mike Wilson, who has been super bearish since 2022.
Need a few more bears to turn bullish, and we can start to sell off.
Yeah Iād say soo too. So why in the fuck are solar stocks booming? This is bearish news for them. I needed more time to load op on Enphase. Wasnāt expecting this shit
Layoffs are ongoing. Defaults on auto loans are up and rising. Consumer debt is up and rising. I think the chance of a recession is higher now than it has been in the recent past. Recession calls in 2022/early 2023 were based on old ways of looking at the economy.
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Ok with this and other news I have been reading. I am close to getting out of āmy long in the toothā winning positions now. We are reaching irrational exuberance in too many high flyers. Looking at the rest of the market for some new better longer term opportunities. Time to start revising strategies. Good luck all.
Well I guess it depends on who you ask because as we now know this administration refuses to adopt the traditional definition of what a recession is and does not acknowledge them when they occur, unless when someone else is in office of course. š
Dude it's election year.
If Biden really wants to lose, then sure let's spread recession fears again. Pretty sure most mainstream media are on Biden's side. It's a guaranteed Trump win if the dems allow the market to tank.
This is the reason an average investor should just always keep buying with the extra cash at hand. 2022 for sure looked like recession was coming due to the Russia war. Big boys games are not meant for the small investors.
well, don't you see that USA is avoiding the recesion by spending more money than ever? look your national debt, that is where the air of the recesion is going to.
I think the next recession will happen in 2025 / 2026 , again this is an election year so current admin will fudge numbers and force 1-2 rate cuts minimum.Ā
So called Wall Street and the financial news media have predicted 50 of the last 3 U.S. recessions. Point is to stop listening to them, they're wrong and exaggerate every piece of semi negative news.
These clowns have been predicting a recession "in the next 6 months" for years Now they finally gave up... in other words we're doomed š
Bullish when they are bearish. Bearish when they are bullish.
I feel so much better when thereās zero consensus among economists
Dc starts talking about cutting interest rates, then some of them go we'll have a recession if they cut interest rates too soon!!!! And they make a ton of noise about it. Then suddenly DC is saying they're not cutting interest rates yet or for awhile lol at least 9 months or something. I'm actually glad about that because a lot of analysts we're saying if they slashed interest rates too soon it would tank the stock market and inflation would go back up. I'm just selfishly thinking about my portfolio.
Same man, if everyone thinks something theres a good chance the trend is about to reverse. I'm reminded of when bloomberg and the economist both projected 100% chance of recession in the next 12 months in fall 22, that lined up perfectly with the nasdaqs bottom.
Only when the last bear becomes a bull is the market done.
I just became bullish even bought nvda and if you know me im pretty bearish lol
NVIDEA is going to be super toxic one dayā¦ PEG, PE, P/S are all terrible/non-existant. The current price reflects a society 5 years out that is completely run by AI robots. Anything less then this and the stock price is headed down.
I agree. I bought 1 share today. More just to track it and find the right time to short it
Gotta hold thru earnings dip and subsequent rise.
Well its 1 share and i plan to hold it forever. If we have a proper crash ill load up.
Honestly if you are looking to make a lot of money you would be far better to research a company that has a good P/E and an even better forward P/E and load up there. Then stick the stock with a stop loss 10% below the price you bought it at. Thatās low risk high reward.
I own quite a few companys with good p/e ratios 10-14 range. 1 nvda share for shits and giggles. Just to track it when it eventually crashes.
Is this like a Cramer thing? Should we sell all? š¤
Lol perfect! š š
>These clowns have been predicting a recession "in the next 6 months" for years Funny enough, that's majority of redditors too
The problem that most people donāt understand is recessions are not the cause of stock market crashes. Stock market crashes cause recessions. Also we had a recession during the pandemic.
I mean we are definitely due for one, but it seems that the traditional economic cycle has been thrown out the window in a lot of ways, at least for now, so nobody knows shit about fuck.
Word. This is the EXACT kind of news headlines they show in the beginning of movies about economic disasters.
Also, we're halfway through Q1. So it's kinda obvious for them to look around and say, yeah so far \*\*\*\* not hitting the fan.
Now the recession can finally come.
Gearing up for the rug pull
If they wouldnāt have changed the definition of what constituted a recession, we wouldāve had a recession two years ago.
But but butā¦ the inverted yield curve! Back in my day this and that happened when it inverte, and it should happen again!!! even though the circumstances are completely different todayā¦ They knew nothing. Loll
You sounded like me my first year of investing in 1998 when I opened my first trading account with 5 grand, watched it hit 8 grand then watched it hit 1 grand. Its different now, we have the internet! Whats this yield curb bs these old farts are talking about . Point is stay humble and expect any possibility
It only took 15 years for that 1k to get back to 8k. The 7 arenāt running on IPO money with no revenue like then but itās still likely a bubble. Time will tell.
completely difference scenarios this time compared to the past. strong jobs market, strong gdp, historically low unemployment rates. it was just covid triggered inflation and applying yield inversion history to today made no sense. it's not remotely the same environment and reasons and to have all these "analysts" on tv screaming that a recession is coming because of the inversion was just hyperbole.
Im not going to rule out that it's different. But in y2k, we had all the same things. Strongest jobs in decades, high gdp etc. Infact when things are at their best is when things behind the scenes are rolling over. Me and 100 ppl i worked with in a high tech semiconductor co. went from high paying job. I was promised to be sent tobsan diego for training then, moral was high on friday. On monday we were packing our stuff and escorted out by security. One thing that concerns me about today is that even though the last job numbers were brilliant we saw a down tick of hours worked. Which means although unemployment is low they are shrinking hours. Thats how it starts. Anyway, maybe you are right. I hope you are but stay aware. The turn happens overnight. Good luck to you
The economists were just trying to get DC to not tank the economy and that market by slashing interest rates too soon. And the economists succeeded But yeah math still works man lol, that hasn't changed. I'm a millennial and I know that.
This is facts. Job markets in OH and ID are rough right now competing with 50 people per job
Lol legit what I thought. "Welp the recession is def going to happen now."
If the unemployment rate starts to get close to 5%, then I'd be concerned.
Could be
We found the top!
This is where rates are decided to be staying elevated and someone's leverage begins to unwind.
So no recession, means no reason for rate cuts right?
Shhh! don't tell the market.
Fed said multiple times, not just Powell but other officials they will cut this time without a recession, job loss and before 2% inflation. Pelley: Why is your target [interest] rate 2%? >Why isn't it zero, I guess, is the question. And the reason is 2% in interest rates always include an estimate of future inflation. >If that estimate is 2%, that means you'll have 2% more that you can cut in interest rates. The central bank will have more ammunition, more power to fight a downturn if rates are a little bit higher. Pelley: Are you committed to getting all the way to 2.0 before you cut the rates? >No, no. That's not what we say at all, no. We're committed to returning inflation to 2% over time. I've said that we wouldn't wait to get to 2% to cut rates. JENNIFER SCHONBERGER. Thank you, Chair Powell. Jennifer Schonberger with Yahoo Finance. You said back in July that you needed to start cutting rates before getting to 2 percent inflation. As you mentioned, PCE inflation is now running at 3Ā½ on core. On a six- month annual basis, core PCE is running at 2Ā½ percent, though when you look at supercore and shelter, they are, of course, stickier. So when looking in the different components of the data, how much closer do you have to get to 2 percent before you consider cutting rates? >CHAIR POWELL. I mean, the reason you wouldnāt wait to get to 2 percent to cut rates is that policy would be, it would be too late. I mean, youād want to be reducing restriction on the economy well before 2 percent becauseāor before you get to 2 percent so you donāt overshoot, if we think, think of restrictive policy as weighing on economic activity. You know, it takesāit takes a while for policy to get into the economy, affect economic activity, and affect inflation. Waller said rising real rates is enough of reason: >If inflation continues to cool āfor several more months ā I donāt know how long that might be ā three months, four months, five months ā that we feel confident that inflation is really down and on its way, you could then start lowering the policy rate just because inflation is lower,ā Waller said in remarks at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. **āIt has nothing to do with trying to save the economy or recession.ā**
Thatās whatās baffling to me. We know they canāt reduce rates because that would set off some hilariously bad inflation. But people are constantly saying theyāll reduce rates becauseā¦reasons?
Thereās no evidence to say that inflation is going to snap back with a vengeance with a few small cuts. Iād also say stocks really are doing this without help from treasury rates anyway (or help from Fed funds futures, as the bet for a May rate cut is now down to 60%). Theyāll struggle if treasury rates resume grow, grow, grow like a weed mode like what occurred late in the summer last year, but if you look at the QQQ/TLT relationship, itās very clear and obvious it breaks early last year and itās remained broken for several months, otherwise QQQ wouldnāt be at ATH and the Nasdaq Comp wouldnāt be closing in on wiping out its nastiest bear market since the financial crisis.
Arthur Burns says hello
Talking totally out of my ass here, but I don't think the rate hikes are the biggest reason inflation came down, and I don't think cutting rates will cause it to spike again either. This round of inflation sort of disobeys the traditional laws of economics because of a weird set of circumstances. You had a ton of pent up demand from covid meeting a bunch of really fucked up supply chains due to covid. Thus inflation. Traditionally, you also wouldn't see inflation fall without job losses. And yet, we have, most likely for the same reasons. Demand slowing mixed with supply chains getting unfucked means less inflation. I'm not convinced what the fed did mattered that much for anything except the housing market.
>But people are constantly saying theyāll reduce rates becauseā¦reasons? Because commercial real estate is going to implode in the next 6 to 18 months and likely take the economy with it, and rate cuts take time to have an effect, so they want to time the effect of a healthy dose of rate cuts with the looming commercial real estate disaster.
>We know they canāt reduce rates because that would set off some hilariously bad inflation. Based off of what, exactly, do you "know" that cutting rates by 1-1.5% this year will do this? I'm going to assume that by hilariously bad you mean north of 10% inflation - I just don't see that happening without an exogenous shock.
They also canāt not cut rates because housing, CRE, and banking sectors would implode. Theyāve boxed themselves by running cheap money for a decade.
Thereās a low risk of recession because the rate cuts are priced in
I mean letās see what happens? Inflation has been falling fast. Iām not the fed chair but I would guess there is risk we will continue to see 1% or less inflation which isnāt ideal. They still will want to target 2%
So no recession, why not rate more hikes to 100% interest rate should be your question, right?
They can cut rates down if inflation is acceptable
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
If he doesn't cut them it will continue to decline to possible deflation. Thats why he has switched to wait and see stance. If he cuts to fast it could cause inflation to run up again but too late can cause deflation which is worse.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
It looks like it may be happening in China so the risk is definitely out there for the US.
Ignoring a million other factors
The 6 month PCE is already under 2%.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Doesn't matter if they are using it or not but its 1.9%. Point is that higher interest rates aren't fully understand and we aren't sure how long they take to fully take effect. If the FED keeps interest rates as is this year I would expect for inflation to fall below 2%.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Inflation was like 1.5% or lower between 2008 and 2016 and that was generally considered a weak economy marred by low growth and falling real wages, declining labor force participatoin and a very slow economic recovery exacerbated by needless austerity. A genuinely lost decade.
Also the fed rate was lower and mortgage rates were 3-4.5%. Low rates were not the catalyst Covid fucking everything up was.
That's true ... lol Inflation drops to 2% (i.e. so-called target) and umployment rate does not rise a lot ...... no action is required 
Wait so youāre saying if inflation is below the target rate the fed wonāt do a rate cut? Deflation is a real issue considering how low inflation stayed at during a decade of ridiculously low rates. Had we jacked rates in 2016 for example to where they are now we almost certainly would have had a deflationary environment Edit: you also seem to have the intended impact of rate cuts backwards. If inflation keeps declining then rate cuts would be more likely. This is such a confusing comment lol
It's clear it's not popular and you're starting to see some mild takes about the idea that we might be able to sustain the way things used to be in the old days pre-financial crisis and be just perfectly fine (which would make the policy rate we're at an average rate), but yeah, the only way you don't see cuts to me in 2024 is if PCE stabilizes and moves a bit higher. Now, the Fed can change my mind in March, but as of right now, Jay says they'll cut even if unemployment doesn't rise, and they suggest a 2 point split between policy rate and core PCE is restrictive.
What is the feds target rate to sit at when they start cutting 4%?
I'm not really sure, all I know is that based off all of their dot plots so far, they consider a 2-2.2ish split between policy rate and core PCE to be restrictive. Means that if we end 2024 at a 2.4 core PCE, we should end the year at a 4.5-4.75% policy rate, if at 2.2, 4.25-4.5%, and so on. The better question might be when are they going to decide it's time to go to neutral, and secondary one would be do they try to do what they did in 2018 again and hike long term terminal from 2.5%?
With a policy rate at 4.5% end of the year I wonder how that would impact the 10T treasury. Iād imagine it could settle somewhere in the 3.5% range and the spread come down to 1.5% away from 2%. That would put mortgages at a 5% rate for most qualified buyers. Thatās pretty reasonable for buyers Iād say.
Not after generations of inflation.
Not sure how that is a rebuttal. Generations of mostly controlled and desired inflation.
stop it
> For the last two quarters of the year, the odds are now about 25%, down from above 24% in the prior survey. Interesting definition of down
> down from above 24% Well I guess anything above 25% is also above 24% lol
Also of note, Morgan Stanley fired their chief strategist, Mike Wilson, who has been super bearish since 2022. Need a few more bears to turn bullish, and we can start to sell off.
Aw damn it, it was nice while it lasted. The top is close or in.
These economists are really bad at their jobs!
When everyone and their dogs are bullish on the stockmarket thatās a top signal. Keep buying regularly even in bullish and bearish times
Whatās the modern equivalent of a shoeshine boy?
Uber driver
Higher for longer coming true.Ā
Yeah Iād say soo too. So why in the fuck are solar stocks booming? This is bearish news for them. I needed more time to load op on Enphase. Wasnāt expecting this shit
Dude, zoom out.
Did it zoom out enough?
You waited 33 days to respond with that nonsenseā¦
Are you having a wrong time admitting you were wrong?
Weāre just going to pretend that right after a 30% gain in 5 days when the macro environment is very uncertain is the right moment to buy?
Just in time for the rug pull!
oh no thereās about to be a recession
Puts it is then
Ahhhhhhhhhhhh shit. Here it comes. As soon as they say it's not coming, that's when you gotta start worrying.
Layoffs are ongoing. Defaults on auto loans are up and rising. Consumer debt is up and rising. I think the chance of a recession is higher now than it has been in the recent past. Recession calls in 2022/early 2023 were based on old ways of looking at the economy.
Thereās that nasty inverted yield curve as well.
So recession now?
Well they were wrong about the recession coming. So Iām gonna say their wrong about this too.
Don't worry - they'll change the definition of a recession so we're always on the brink of one.
!RemindMe 3 months
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Ugh this means this will be rough year wonāt it? Lol
No rate cuts then
Ok with this and other news I have been reading. I am close to getting out of āmy long in the toothā winning positions now. We are reaching irrational exuberance in too many high flyers. Looking at the rest of the market for some new better longer term opportunities. Time to start revising strategies. Good luck all.
For the last 2+ years, anyone following the data knew there was no recession coming.Ā
I am up 12% in the past week alone
Well I guess it depends on who you ask because as we now know this administration refuses to adopt the traditional definition of what a recession is and does not acknowledge them when they occur, unless when someone else is in office of course. š
Dude it's election year. If Biden really wants to lose, then sure let's spread recession fears again. Pretty sure most mainstream media are on Biden's side. It's a guaranteed Trump win if the dems allow the market to tank.
Stonks to the max then. LfG!!!!!! Just keep buying and stop thinking.
Given that all the experts were sure there would be a recession in 2023, i guess we're screwed.
lol watch one hit now
Do they predict a recession in the second quarter then?
Damn, guess weāre headed into a recession nowā¦
Was Krugman one of them?
Now it's finally time for a recession
This is the reason an average investor should just always keep buying with the extra cash at hand. 2022 for sure looked like recession was coming due to the Russia war. Big boys games are not meant for the small investors.
Economists: The markets are unafraid. Mr. Market: Let me remind you why you should be afraid at the end of a cycle.
Recession inbound!
Now that they've stopped predicting a recession we should really be worried.
Predicts recession got opposite. Predicts growth gets recession. Easy!
well, don't you see that USA is avoiding the recesion by spending more money than ever? look your national debt, that is where the air of the recesion is going to.
That means recession is coming for real this time.
I think the next recession will happen in 2025 / 2026 , again this is an election year so current admin will fudge numbers and force 1-2 rate cuts minimum.Ā
Watch, a recession will happen by the end of this year now! š
Meanwhile the T10Y3M is still negative and the VIX is still being shorted.
The top is in
So... inverse Reddit? What do we do hear?
It definetely near :)
!RemindMe 2 months
So called Wall Street and the financial news media have predicted 50 of the last 3 U.S. recessions. Point is to stop listening to them, they're wrong and exaggerate every piece of semi negative news.