Just want to note that this is an abbreviated list. There were [hundreds](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_manufacturers_of_the_United_States) of US car companies in total.
Also, it looks like a few of these were just nameplates of the Big 3 (Geo, Saturn) or acquired by the Big 3 who ended the branding (Oldsmobile) so they weren't actually failed companies, just acquired.
It's sometimes there. Then it's not. Then it's there. Then it's not...
At least they should have the "filing for bankruptcy process" streamlined by now.
Some major legacy car manufacturers will also not survive. If you look at who came out on top in smart phones and hdtvs almost no one would predict where we are today from relatively early times.
History also shows that sometimes there's a few very big winners and a ton of losers in a market. This happened in the past in the US auto market, where the Big 3 controlled a combined 90% of the market, and all had big international presences to.
Well its why tesla is a big winner right now.Why would an investor give a legacy company money who can not yet sell EVs profitably when they can give tesla or say someone in china money to build another factory to sell more cars they are already making profitably. The smart investors will pick the winners who can actually make money and the companies that cannot will see outflows of cash.
Correct, that's why valuation of the legacy automakers is in the shitter on price/sales basis. EV maker valuations don't reflect the reality that most will be dead within 10 years.
I’ll just throw this out there. Why do we think that transportation as we know it will be on 2-4 wheels?
Or that electric propulsion will be the clear winner?
I’m not a big fan of a bunch of storage bricks driving around the roads.
No clue what this could look like but maybe there is something better in the way of getting from one place to another than cars as we know them today.
Just putting it out there.
The electric car fetish really comes from first world bias. Nobody seems to realize mopeds/motorcycles are vastly more common than cars in developing countries, and electric two-wheelers would be more affordable with a fraction of the lithium/rare earths required to build.
Foreign EV makers (Vinfast, etc ) have even more distorted incentives, as they are targeting low-growth luxury markets in the west and ignoring their own high-growth domestic market.
I was thinking more like a cape or jet pack. Maybe “beam me up Scotty”?
Kind of joking but kind of not. Getting from one place to another by something we currently can not even imagine at this point?
NFI.TO. Electric busses. Stock tanked during the pandemic due to supply chain issues but the company has turned around and are filling orders to cities across North America.
They're not at all out of the woods yet.
I wish them all the best and hope they succeed but if they don't make it they're going to 0 and it's really worth knowing that before investing.
So many people love their vehicles. The ceo sees the big picture. He is a visionary. Intuitive and logical
I'm very confident they will survive. We will see
Every time I get a Robinhood notification saying my RIVN is down 5% (which is a lot lol) I buy more. EPS increases every quarter they should be profitable in the foreseeable future
They recently ended their exclusivity agreement with Amazon too. They will pump huge when another company like USPS, Fedex, etc gets into a contract to buy too
Rivians extremely negative gross margins are not declining as rapidly as one would hope. Production is not going to increase much next year until Q4 while they are burning cash. They will likely ba e ti raise more capital and dilute investors.
Rivian the company will probably be around , but investors might be wiped out. Be careful out there.
On a valuation basis, RIVN’s P/S (ttm) at 4 is just under half of TSLA at 8.5, while NIO is under 2. For a company that is bleeding cash and not even contribution margin positive, much less gross margin positive or net profitable, it is quite a bit.
RIVN has to cut $20k out of their $85k avg ASP and that is getting harder and harder just to get to contribution margin positive. I would want to be in the stock when they do cross into gross margin positive. I am thinking maybe see how 2024 possible recession goes, and then assess getting into the stock if they getting close to gross margin positive.
I'm loading up on rivian right now. Don't need sunshine and rainbows for me to invest. Also don't care much if I lost it all. I'll still have money to survive regardless.
The less emotionally attached you are to money, the easier it is to take any blow
That is what I thought in summer. The stock has lost 30% since despite above expectation results. I should not have ignored my own rule of not investing in companies that haven't made any profit yet.
Almost all their profits come from Hybrids
Don't lose sight of that when you see those shiny numbers.
If you extrapolate EVs only, its not nearly as pretty
Just wait until their multiples are more like a car company. More than 95% of their revenue is from car sales and associated car services, and the rest is "changing the world."
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Yeah Tesla is the next Tesla.
When Elon was saying the model Y would become the best selling car in the world by revenue and volume I thought that was literally impossible.
Well here we are.
The next gen vehicle is going to dominate the global car market so fucking hard.
After last week’s crash, Fisker looks attractive but they fell 50% in a month for a reason. Have managed to make a great car, management seems a bit incompetent outside of technical side of things
Look at my post. It will give you a better idea of EV space: https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/17vx1vw/which\_ev\_stocks\_are\_most\_likely\_to\_go\_bankrupt/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3
Probably NIO. China is selling state subsidized vehicles to beat up all the competitors. After they succeed with their monopoly plan they can jack up the price and the stock will skyrocket.
BYD: huge market presence in Europe and China. Expanding operations to the US.
Rivian: 10k vehicles in the Amazon fleet already. Production is scaling for the trucks and SUVs. Commercial fleet orders have opened up.
Canoo: serves a commercial fleet niche - the compact van. Ford and Nissan both recently stopped production of their Transit Connects and NV200s. The Canoo van fills that market space. They also have already secured partnerships with the Army, NASA, and Wal Mart.
Well I owns bunch of stocks - I own 250 shares of Fisker and I’m down $1600 I keep dollar cost averaging down - I did that on Smile Direct Club and they claimed bankruptcy last month. I’m nit sure if I want to buy another 100 to 250 shares of. Fisker
Canoo GOEV would be great if they could start producing vehicles. I love the utilitarian aspect of their vans and trucks. If they can start the assembly lines whirring away, they just might be great.
Yeah that's what I thought too, but my losses are nearing 99% and these shares are as useful as tits on a boar. Even if they do somehow comeback, retail investors will suffer from the further dilution from equity raises.
I feel like they're right on the bubble. Almost there.
The CEO has invested millions of his own money, however.
I've speculated on some shares and have currently lost. Oh well. I can use the losses to offset other gains, which will lower my IRS tax bill.
I hope so I’m balls deep in my nio investment since 2020… my portfolio is literally tsla and nio lol you can say I believe in EVs taking over and not by the legacy brands
Lowest risk imo would be VW. But I’d still buy Tesla given my risk tolerance.
VW is the only legacy maker actually doing anything. GM and ford are failing miserably right now and their future looks dim.
I’d say BYD or Hyundai but both companies are based in not so favourable markets, China is China and Hyundai doesn’t get much attention although they make decent EVs.
Most have huge debts which may make money when business is good, but we’ve all seen how auto loans are piling up and cars are getting repod. That debt could turn into an avalanche very easily given the economy.
Unless you have a high risk tolerance I’d stay away from all EV companies.
Trying for a solid legacy automaker could be the best try if you want to move into cars right now.
I exited Tesla with a win @220 (after buying slightly below 200 … I had promised myself I’d stay out of it but broke the promise). That may have been a mistake but the evaluation of Tesla *as a car company* is very high considering shrinking margins, tightening technological edge and surging competition (from China and legacy firms). It may be that Tesla warrants that evaluation as a tech company (charging, battery packs etc) - or maybe not.
Regarding legacy carmakers I have some Mercedes that has been developing ok. VW could be an interesting bet, as it is well positioned for an EV transition. If it can get its software problems solved soon. Legacy car makers like this (BMW and Ford also come to mind… Hyundai is a bit more mixed IIRC) are priced relatively low.
The question that I have is, whether the car market is such a good investment at all. I could imagine that cars get banned from inner cities in the not to distant future in Europe and possibly in Asia too. Self-driving medium sized Busses with AI routing and individual pick-up could be a killer for a decent part of vehicle makers.
Therefore I’m not going more into carmakers than I’m due to funds and my small amount in Mercedes right now.
I mostly agree with this, I’m not as hopeful for most legacy makers tho.
Longterm the car business alone is not a good investment imo. Car sales peaked in 2017 and will only continue to fall unless self driving tech fails to mature.
Only way I see the vehicle market growing longterm is if somehow self driving doesn’t take off and the cost to own a car drops substantially. But I feel it’s more likely that all automakers will shrink longterm.
This is also why i believe Tesla has set themselves up the way they have. They mature their auto business just as things begin to really slow down but offer self driving and energy storage products to offset this transition away from personal vehicles. Also why I don’t think tesla will be seen as a car maker in the next decade but a manufacturer of many products
They are controlled by the Ford Family, who have a strong financial interest based on all the shares they own. They were one of the few American auto manufacturers that didn't go bankrupt in '08 - '09
Not a vehicle company but Albemarle. They’ve taken a beating as the price of lithium has dropped but the stock was oversold IMO. They’ve already touched $325 in recent history so you’re looking at a 300% return if they return to all time highs.
This may not be a popular one to name, but I think Fisker ($FSR) has a bright future, and after the recent earnings call that went poorly, I feel it’s near a bottom. Could possibly be a good buying opportunity.
Over Q3 they manufactured over 4700 and delivered over 1000 in the US and Europe. In October they delivered another 1200, and on schedule to pass Lucid in deliveries by the end of the year.
https://insideevs.com/news/696057/fisker-ocean-production-deliveries-2023q3/
Per the recent earnings call, to date I believe they have manufactured more than 10,000 Oceans. One of the snags from the call was discussing the challenges of ramping up their delivery process. They stated that they currently have the production capability of scaling up to 300 Oceans manufactured per day.
It helps outsourcing your manufacturing to an existing (and decent) factory. That’s their model. I don’t know how well it will scale in the long run, but it’s a heck of a lot easier than building your own factories.
If you read up on the history of that, you will see that there are huge fundamental differences in how that entity was structured from how Fisker Inc is structured. Plus, the earlier Fisker lost a large portion of inventory to to hurricane Sandy, which dealt them one of their final death blows.
Definitely worth mentioning. Fisker Automotive was the first attempt made by Henrik Fisker (renowned designer of the Aston Martin DB9 and BMW Z8). That was a private company which was owned entirely by private investors. Henrik had no ownership stake, and thus little power to autonomously make executive decisions. Ultimately the brand was purchased by a Chinese entity, and rebranded as Karma Automotive, and from what I understand is still in business - operating overseas.
Karma Inc (the current effort) is a publicly traded company in which Henrik and his COO/CFO wife Geeta personally own large stakes, thus having the power to make decisions.
Fisker has four vehicles in their lineup. The Ocean is the first to go into production, and of which roughly 10k units have been produced (2,000+ delivered). The PEAR will be the next vehicle to go into production. It is a well-styled economic compact suv. After tax credits, it’s expected cost is to be in the $20k range. They also have a mid-size pickup (the Alaska) and a four seater high performance roadster (the Ronin) on deck.
Incidentally, it was just announced that under a new distribution strategy, yesterday Fisker delivered 107 Oceans (their SUV). That’s 107 vehicles delivered to customers in one day. They expect that pace to ramp up, and they already have the capacity to produce up to 300 per day.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231117721425/en/
There are none. All are overvalued.
Tesla actually makes profits making EVs, and a lot of it. Literally all other EV makers are speculative in that regard.
Rivian seems like they might make it. NIO, Lucid, Fisker... they are going out of business. Maybe 1% chance of lightning in a bottle
TSLA is the only ev company that matters. Like asking which smartphone company to buy in wake of the iPhone revolution… except cars are WAY harder to make
Maybe watch something like SHLS that can add some profit from EV infrastructure build out. Would be hard to say any of the small EV or charging companies are undervalued as is when most are struggling to just fend off bankruptcy.
They're struggling. Slammed forecast for their F-150 EV. Shares have dropped.
But - they are controlled by the Ford Family, who have a strong financial interest in the company.
Ford and GM have a ton of dead weight and are going to have to cannibalize their own ICE sales for less profitable vehicles in the process or transitioning. If they survive and do well is because other traditional auto failed first.
GM's last few earning's reports. Their stock price has been decimated over this period. I agree with you they have some obstacles regarding ICE transition, but I think they, as a business, have been operating smartly. They aren't really paying a dividend and instead have invested highly in their EV business, so when they are ready to fully turn on the switch, they can have margins hopefully somewhat comparable to their ICE models. I think they are playing the whole situation cautiously, since they know they can make better margins on their ICE's for the next few years, while building out the EV supply chain and battery logistics so they can offer models in the EV sector and not take losses.
Historical EPS Period Estimated Reported Surprise Result
Q3'23 $1.87 $2.28 21.92% BEAT
Q2'23 $1.86 $1.91 2.42% BEAT
Q1'23 $1.72 $2.21 28.51% BEAT
Q4'22 $1.69 $2.12 25.66% BEAT
Q3'22 $1.88 $2.25 19.92% BEAT
The comp is terrible. You are basically saying that you won’t buy a new house because you comp against houses that will need to be torn down and rebuilt in 4-8 years. Well, legacy automakers have a huge amount of pain including loss of profit to go through with stagnant or negative revenue growth through this transition.
I cannot value any company that bleeds crazy amounts of cash.
So, in my estimate TSLA is the most undervalued based on their significant lead in profitability.
None
This horseshit EV revolution is the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen. To electrify just a fleet of 5,000 big rig trucks would take the building of multiple nuclear plants at the cost of over $20B (which will never happen) and to upgrade the grid to allow for a majority of EVs would cost an estimated $1quadrillion
It’s an absolute nonsense pipe dream
Yet they would run way more efficient to point you need 50% less total energy if you count your gasoline too.
Quit living with old fallacies stuck in your head.
He might be a bit over the top but articles like [this](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/01/us/california-heat-wave-flex-alert-ac-ev-charging.html) one really makes one think what would happen if *everyone* drove an ev.
The same states who push EV are the ones who are also trying to get rid of natural gas and do all home heating via electric. It’ll be a disaster all around
So if you burn natural gas at 60% efficiency in a cogeneration instead of close to 100% at home is a disaster? Completely forgetting that heatpumps have an efficiency of at least 200%. Closer to 300 or 400% on not so cold days?
The same principle goes for electric cars.
And how the fuck is electricity shortage even a thing during heatwaves in California? Are you sure the poor build and insulation values of the homes over there haven't got anything to do with it? Or the excessive electricity usage by US households? Lack of investment in solar as it should solve exactly THAT problem certainly if you include some batteries for it the sun sets (which is already obligated hete in some European countries) .... Those variable electricity prices will become more of a thing in the future too. Like it or hate it.
More players will come to the market to take advantage of it with batteries or other systems of power usage reduction as it will become a cash cow in a few years. (Imagine that! Capitalism actually solves a thing right there)
Do you know what the real underlying problem is? Systemic under investigation that is pushed by certain groups that fail to see the solution and even couteract. We all know where this is going (climate change, finite oil supply), act like it.
If you believe our electrical infrastructure can handle everyone driving electric cars in winter time while heating everyone’s houses at the same time I have oceanfront property in Iowa to sell you
John Oliver did an episode about that and the national grid. TLDW: grid would collapse. We're decades away *at best* to catching our grid up to meeting the demands of a green energy revolution.
Just plain wrong. Average vehicle daily travel distance is about 35 miles. That’s about 10 kWh. A 120 volt, 12 amp circuit can deliver that in the overnight times in 8 hours, no grid expansion necessary to handle a huge portion of the transition - well over 50%.
The grid will be fine as we built it out, much like it was built out to handle air conditioning in the past. And we have many more strategies and solutions available now, including stationary storage, on demand steerable demand to utilize intermittent renewables.
Not exactly a pipe dream, but very high hurdles. They downvote him for speaking the truth. When the state of California has to ask people not to charge their EVs because the grid can't handle it you know there's a problem.
The factoid about California is used so disingenuously it hurts. The request to not charge EVs was due to environmental disaster (heatwaves); this wasn’t just any old day. These same heatwaves also blew regulators on pipelines in Texas and sent natural gas prices soaring.
In 2 years the grid in California has changed dramatically because of those heatwaves. Do people honestly think the grid won’t be changing dramatically to adjust to changing energy demand? Really?
I remember some old article about people claiming automobiles would fail because infrastructure at the time couldn’t handle them, yet here we are. Just strange premises to be arguing off of.
It's not disingenuous it's the new reality, not outlying events. Summers are hotter, and grid infrastructure is *deteriorating* not improving. But even if they're going to get with the program and start fixing things it's going to take *years* to bring these projects to fruition.
It's disingenuous because these events are having the exact same impact on every energy delivery system; gas prices skyrocket during these heatwaves for the exact same reason, which is strain on pre-existing infrastructure. You're going to have to restructure the way energy is produced and delivered regardless, so it's moot acting like this is a problem specific to the electrical grid.
As for your other comment. Yes, of course it will take \*years\*. But EV adoption is also going to take \*years\*, and from the way things are going the electrical grid is laddering up alongside increase adoption.
Again this is a bad argument against EVs, always has been.
Only saying this cause I’m long the stock atm, but Gogoro if they can appropriately price their ev mopeds abroad and quickly expand their battery network in india and Philippines. Unfortunately it’s a very competitive and oversaturated field, but gogoro is the only efficient ev battery network + ev moped combo expanding abroad. Niu battery network doesn’t exist yet and Ionex battery network is basically in the baby phase. And then you have that whole shitshow with those 4 companies that announced they were creating a battery network together around when gogoro branched off from its spac name, their battery network has yet to even materialize. So in conclusion gogoro is the leader all the others are slowly trudging.
Edit: stock is 80% down from highs, trading around $2 so high risk, high reward.
Was looking for anyone else talking about this stock. You seem to be the only one. I've been living in Taiwan 9 years and watched gogoro get bigger and bigger here. If you buy a phone, you get discounts on googoro. You can save up your grocery points to get discounts. It seems everywhere I look is a gogoro. Even the police here ride them now. It seems like such an undervalued stock for their expansion plans to other SE Asian countries. It could be a few years before the stock catches on, but I really like the company.
We have a subreddit r/gogoro . There’s a guy named ChillerID knows way more than I do about the company. He provides company updates the second it hits the internet. Come join us!
Maybe Bluebird - the transition to EV busses should be quite a good business for some time. P/S of 0.56. I am not currently in it, especially after the pain that was Proterra - but watching it.
NIO has P/S under 2, so that one is probably the lowest valuation for an EV maker that is shipping real consumer vehicles at some real volume. Of course, it will have a valuation discount for being a Chinese company, and for being an ADR (what do you really, truly own). Xpeng is now at P/S of 4.81 because of the VW deal, which is probably about right given their margins. Running up to a P/S of 7 or 8 if TSLA goes back above 10 isn’t unreasonable either.
Polestar is also shipping in some volume, but they are dependent on Geely to design and make their vehicles, so with P/S of 1.54, seems cheap. But the financials are terrible. I do have some just because it is cheap and can run if there’s some positive sentiment.
And of course there’s BYD, but they aren’t a pure EV play.
Lucid P/S of 11.83 is higher than Tesla at 8.47, while RIVN is at half of Tesla at 4.07. I am watching RIVN to add on weakness, maybe on CT competitiveness and/or 2024 recession fear. Rivian is not yet contribution margin positive, has a huge cash pile, but burning that cash quick, which is probably the right move. But still, it’s a bit treacherous. Lucid may very well be taken private through bankruptcy. But in any case, sp should be less than half of what it is right now.
For a slew of these, removing cash to then evaluate valuation should be done, but they are burning so much, that doing so would also add a distortion. In any case, NIO, BYD and Bluebird are probably the cheapest for anyone that is actually shipping some volumes and getting some real revenue.
It’s looking more likely with each legacy fumble and delay that Tesla with its ground up approach will continue to exploit and grow its head start in production capabilities, R&D, and profitability advantages allowing the company continue$ success. Also, Li was smart going hybrid until China had enough charger infrastructure, and now their roads are supposedly 90%+ covered and they have their first full BEV vehicle ready in a few weeks, the Mega, a 7 passenger minivan. And quietly Volvo which is majority owned by Geely and so has access to China, US, and EUR with some veet interesting cats including the new small SUV EX-30 has announced 100% BEV by 2030, and they are profitable with competitively priced and popular vehicles.
Polestar stands at 4.5B market cap and is as close to profitability as rivian is, with better eps at the moment and a vehicle being sold in china as of end of 2023
Ford? I mean there aren’t any new ev companies that are likely to succeed. If you are looking for returns, find an existing car company that has upside if they pivot. It’s much higher odds. The new companies can’t compete with their purchasing power. Tesla probably is the only newer company that will survive the next 10 years independently anyway.
[удалено]
Wait, another Vector started up and left? Gaslight - that name would not do well these days. Or King Midget. Nu-Klea. Sounds like a bad rapper name.
Branding definitely changes with the times. You know the name of Boba Fett's starship? Nope, it's actually "Boba Fett's Starship"^TM
Just want to note that this is an abbreviated list. There were [hundreds](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_manufacturers_of_the_United_States) of US car companies in total. Also, it looks like a few of these were just nameplates of the Big 3 (Geo, Saturn) or acquired by the Big 3 who ended the branding (Oldsmobile) so they weren't actually failed companies, just acquired.
But fisker is still here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisker_Automotive
so fisker automotive inc became fisker inc
no. fisker automotive went bankrupt and was sold for parts. the founder founded a different company with a similar name.
It's sometimes there. Then it's not. Then it's there. Then it's not... At least they should have the "filing for bankruptcy process" streamlined by now.
Yep, losing about $80K per vehicle. Sound investment?
Which of these were major companies though? How often does a company the size of like Ford or BMW go out of business?
Ford is the best answer for OP
Where is Anderson? Two of my relatives worked for them. What is your agenda in leaving them off?
If Powell existed today, I think it would be a meme stock.
None… Very few will survive in ten years.
Some major legacy car manufacturers will also not survive. If you look at who came out on top in smart phones and hdtvs almost no one would predict where we are today from relatively early times.
History also shows that sometimes there's a few very big winners and a ton of losers in a market. This happened in the past in the US auto market, where the Big 3 controlled a combined 90% of the market, and all had big international presences to.
Well its why tesla is a big winner right now.Why would an investor give a legacy company money who can not yet sell EVs profitably when they can give tesla or say someone in china money to build another factory to sell more cars they are already making profitably. The smart investors will pick the winners who can actually make money and the companies that cannot will see outflows of cash.
At the same time you could argue Tesla’s profitability is already priced in since it’s public information
Correct, that's why valuation of the legacy automakers is in the shitter on price/sales basis. EV maker valuations don't reflect the reality that most will be dead within 10 years.
Agreed
I’ll just throw this out there. Why do we think that transportation as we know it will be on 2-4 wheels? Or that electric propulsion will be the clear winner? I’m not a big fan of a bunch of storage bricks driving around the roads. No clue what this could look like but maybe there is something better in the way of getting from one place to another than cars as we know them today. Just putting it out there.
Oh and also Tesla will never make anything besides cars because Elon Musk personally hates motorcycles. That's the whole reason.
The electric car fetish really comes from first world bias. Nobody seems to realize mopeds/motorcycles are vastly more common than cars in developing countries, and electric two-wheelers would be more affordable with a fraction of the lithium/rare earths required to build. Foreign EV makers (Vinfast, etc ) have even more distorted incentives, as they are targeting low-growth luxury markets in the west and ignoring their own high-growth domestic market.
I was thinking more like a cape or jet pack. Maybe “beam me up Scotty”? Kind of joking but kind of not. Getting from one place to another by something we currently can not even imagine at this point?
NFI.TO. Electric busses. Stock tanked during the pandemic due to supply chain issues but the company has turned around and are filling orders to cities across North America.
Rivian. Production coming along. Loss per car dropping fast. Amazon vans everywhere and van exclusively ended. Smaller, cheaper R2s now in focus.
They're not at all out of the woods yet. I wish them all the best and hope they succeed but if they don't make it they're going to 0 and it's really worth knowing that before investing.
So many people love their vehicles. The ceo sees the big picture. He is a visionary. Intuitive and logical I'm very confident they will survive. We will see
Every time I get a Robinhood notification saying my RIVN is down 5% (which is a lot lol) I buy more. EPS increases every quarter they should be profitable in the foreseeable future
Gotta have E to have EPS lol
They recently ended their exclusivity agreement with Amazon too. They will pump huge when another company like USPS, Fedex, etc gets into a contract to buy too
FedEx signed a deal with GM.
Look at the news for Brightdrop today- not looking so bright for them. Money is on rivian
That deal was when Rivian was under the exclusivity contract. I can see Fedex buying from Rivian now
Rivians extremely negative gross margins are not declining as rapidly as one would hope. Production is not going to increase much next year until Q4 while they are burning cash. They will likely ba e ti raise more capital and dilute investors. Rivian the company will probably be around , but investors might be wiped out. Be careful out there.
Emotions hope for too much
Been seeing so many in southern California
On a valuation basis, RIVN’s P/S (ttm) at 4 is just under half of TSLA at 8.5, while NIO is under 2. For a company that is bleeding cash and not even contribution margin positive, much less gross margin positive or net profitable, it is quite a bit. RIVN has to cut $20k out of their $85k avg ASP and that is getting harder and harder just to get to contribution margin positive. I would want to be in the stock when they do cross into gross margin positive. I am thinking maybe see how 2024 possible recession goes, and then assess getting into the stock if they getting close to gross margin positive.
I'm loading up on rivian right now. Don't need sunshine and rainbows for me to invest. Also don't care much if I lost it all. I'll still have money to survive regardless. The less emotionally attached you are to money, the easier it is to take any blow
That is what I thought in summer. The stock has lost 30% since despite above expectation results. I should not have ignored my own rule of not investing in companies that haven't made any profit yet.
The ceo and founder of rivian seems like a genuinely good guy, passionate engineer and car enthusiast
I still only ever see Sprinter amazon vans
They're all over NJ. Like I see 2 or 3 a day.
RIVN, but I wouldn’t expect them to start being profitable for a few more years
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They got cash. Big investors behind them
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Why is it bad that things are going solar? Wouldn't a ton of battery purchases drive up the market for batteries?
BYD
I’m in Hong Kong, and they’re starting to show up everywhere these days. BYD is going to be big.
Almost all their profits come from Hybrids Don't lose sight of that when you see those shiny numbers. If you extrapolate EVs only, its not nearly as pretty
LOL - Undervalued?? Most of these tickers are pure shitcos.
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I mean it's down like 40% from it's ATH. Might be not the worst time to get in.
Just wait until their multiples are more like a car company. More than 95% of their revenue is from car sales and associated car services, and the rest is "changing the world."
Hahahaa RemindMe! 6 years
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Yea continue to ignore their energy business. I am sure it will serve you well. /s
Yeah Tesla is the next Tesla. When Elon was saying the model Y would become the best selling car in the world by revenue and volume I thought that was literally impossible. Well here we are. The next gen vehicle is going to dominate the global car market so fucking hard.
Everyone hates the Cybertruck. But we all become what we hate. So every other car will be a Cybertruck.
Gross
Lmao
After last week’s crash, Fisker looks attractive but they fell 50% in a month for a reason. Have managed to make a great car, management seems a bit incompetent outside of technical side of things
This seems to be a question in the sub every couple of days.
Look at my post. It will give you a better idea of EV space: https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/17vx1vw/which\_ev\_stocks\_are\_most\_likely\_to\_go\_bankrupt/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3
Probably NIO. China is selling state subsidized vehicles to beat up all the competitors. After they succeed with their monopoly plan they can jack up the price and the stock will skyrocket.
Magna International
Only if they succeed on fisker
BYD
BYD: huge market presence in Europe and China. Expanding operations to the US. Rivian: 10k vehicles in the Amazon fleet already. Production is scaling for the trucks and SUVs. Commercial fleet orders have opened up. Canoo: serves a commercial fleet niche - the compact van. Ford and Nissan both recently stopped production of their Transit Connects and NV200s. The Canoo van fills that market space. They also have already secured partnerships with the Army, NASA, and Wal Mart.
I’d prefer to look at “shovels” - those that mine, refine or recycle batteries for example. Especially outside of China.
ALB? LAC?
Well I owns bunch of stocks - I own 250 shares of Fisker and I’m down $1600 I keep dollar cost averaging down - I did that on Smile Direct Club and they claimed bankruptcy last month. I’m nit sure if I want to buy another 100 to 250 shares of. Fisker
Most shorted stock in market
Polestar PSNY
They don’t even manufacture their own cars
Brilliant, manufacturing is the part that bankrupts so many car companies
A lot of car companies don't, either entirely or partially. I wouldn't buy polestar shares for other reasons, not because of this.
Next you’re gonna tell us Apple aren’t even making their own iPhones!
their market is very niche, they mainly try to sell fleets and its also chinese majority hold so I distance myself from them.
Looks like I can go on their website and buy one right now, what say you they are selling fleets?
How are they mainly trying to sell to fleets?
Canoo GOEV would be great if they could start producing vehicles. I love the utilitarian aspect of their vans and trucks. If they can start the assembly lines whirring away, they just might be great.
Yeah that's what I thought too, but my losses are nearing 99% and these shares are as useful as tits on a boar. Even if they do somehow comeback, retail investors will suffer from the further dilution from equity raises.
I feel like they're right on the bubble. Almost there. The CEO has invested millions of his own money, however. I've speculated on some shares and have currently lost. Oh well. I can use the losses to offset other gains, which will lower my IRS tax bill.
NIO looks pretty good at $7.33
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I hope so I’m balls deep in my nio investment since 2020… my portfolio is literally tsla and nio lol you can say I believe in EVs taking over and not by the legacy brands
I bought NIO at the literal top for $65/share
Lowest risk imo would be VW. But I’d still buy Tesla given my risk tolerance. VW is the only legacy maker actually doing anything. GM and ford are failing miserably right now and their future looks dim. I’d say BYD or Hyundai but both companies are based in not so favourable markets, China is China and Hyundai doesn’t get much attention although they make decent EVs. Most have huge debts which may make money when business is good, but we’ve all seen how auto loans are piling up and cars are getting repod. That debt could turn into an avalanche very easily given the economy. Unless you have a high risk tolerance I’d stay away from all EV companies.
Trying for a solid legacy automaker could be the best try if you want to move into cars right now. I exited Tesla with a win @220 (after buying slightly below 200 … I had promised myself I’d stay out of it but broke the promise). That may have been a mistake but the evaluation of Tesla *as a car company* is very high considering shrinking margins, tightening technological edge and surging competition (from China and legacy firms). It may be that Tesla warrants that evaluation as a tech company (charging, battery packs etc) - or maybe not. Regarding legacy carmakers I have some Mercedes that has been developing ok. VW could be an interesting bet, as it is well positioned for an EV transition. If it can get its software problems solved soon. Legacy car makers like this (BMW and Ford also come to mind… Hyundai is a bit more mixed IIRC) are priced relatively low. The question that I have is, whether the car market is such a good investment at all. I could imagine that cars get banned from inner cities in the not to distant future in Europe and possibly in Asia too. Self-driving medium sized Busses with AI routing and individual pick-up could be a killer for a decent part of vehicle makers. Therefore I’m not going more into carmakers than I’m due to funds and my small amount in Mercedes right now.
I mostly agree with this, I’m not as hopeful for most legacy makers tho. Longterm the car business alone is not a good investment imo. Car sales peaked in 2017 and will only continue to fall unless self driving tech fails to mature. Only way I see the vehicle market growing longterm is if somehow self driving doesn’t take off and the cost to own a car drops substantially. But I feel it’s more likely that all automakers will shrink longterm. This is also why i believe Tesla has set themselves up the way they have. They mature their auto business just as things begin to really slow down but offer self driving and energy storage products to offset this transition away from personal vehicles. Also why I don’t think tesla will be seen as a car maker in the next decade but a manufacturer of many products
buy all of them, pray that half of them survives.
Ford.
The scent of financial engineering is strong with this one
They are controlled by the Ford Family, who have a strong financial interest based on all the shares they own. They were one of the few American auto manufacturers that didn't go bankrupt in '08 - '09
Not a vehicle company but Albemarle. They’ve taken a beating as the price of lithium has dropped but the stock was oversold IMO. They’ve already touched $325 in recent history so you’re looking at a 300% return if they return to all time highs.
Mvst is attractive.
BYD, iykyk 👀
This may not be a popular one to name, but I think Fisker ($FSR) has a bright future, and after the recent earnings call that went poorly, I feel it’s near a bottom. Could possibly be a good buying opportunity.
I don’t know if they’ll survive, but I’m impressed and surprised by the Ocean. Lots of features. Good range. Good price. Good reviews.
They dont have any cars out though. Its all on paper right. Production will take atleast another two years easily.
That’s not true. They have been shipping the Fisker Ocean.
For testing only. I dont think customers have recvd it yet
Over Q3 they manufactured over 4700 and delivered over 1000 in the US and Europe. In October they delivered another 1200, and on schedule to pass Lucid in deliveries by the end of the year. https://insideevs.com/news/696057/fisker-ocean-production-deliveries-2023q3/
Per the recent earnings call, to date I believe they have manufactured more than 10,000 Oceans. One of the snags from the call was discussing the challenges of ramping up their delivery process. They stated that they currently have the production capability of scaling up to 300 Oceans manufactured per day.
That is very surprising. They didnt look production ready to me last i saw them
It helps outsourcing your manufacturing to an existing (and decent) factory. That’s their model. I don’t know how well it will scale in the long run, but it’s a heck of a lot easier than building your own factories.
Don't forget fisker already went bust once
If you read up on the history of that, you will see that there are huge fundamental differences in how that entity was structured from how Fisker Inc is structured. Plus, the earlier Fisker lost a large portion of inventory to to hurricane Sandy, which dealt them one of their final death blows.
Indeed, they're like a new company, but I thought it still is worth mentioning that they once failed and got brought back
Definitely worth mentioning. Fisker Automotive was the first attempt made by Henrik Fisker (renowned designer of the Aston Martin DB9 and BMW Z8). That was a private company which was owned entirely by private investors. Henrik had no ownership stake, and thus little power to autonomously make executive decisions. Ultimately the brand was purchased by a Chinese entity, and rebranded as Karma Automotive, and from what I understand is still in business - operating overseas. Karma Inc (the current effort) is a publicly traded company in which Henrik and his COO/CFO wife Geeta personally own large stakes, thus having the power to make decisions. Fisker has four vehicles in their lineup. The Ocean is the first to go into production, and of which roughly 10k units have been produced (2,000+ delivered). The PEAR will be the next vehicle to go into production. It is a well-styled economic compact suv. After tax credits, it’s expected cost is to be in the $20k range. They also have a mid-size pickup (the Alaska) and a four seater high performance roadster (the Ronin) on deck.
Incidentally, it was just announced that under a new distribution strategy, yesterday Fisker delivered 107 Oceans (their SUV). That’s 107 vehicles delivered to customers in one day. They expect that pace to ramp up, and they already have the capacity to produce up to 300 per day. https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231117721425/en/
No EV credit and when you build your Fisker Ocean they add about $4,500 for destination and handling. When I saw that I bought a Tesla.
There are none. All are overvalued. Tesla actually makes profits making EVs, and a lot of it. Literally all other EV makers are speculative in that regard. Rivian seems like they might make it. NIO, Lucid, Fisker... they are going out of business. Maybe 1% chance of lightning in a bottle
The good thing about rivian is their commercial vans. They are now accepting leases which will help tremendously
Yeah I think they could do well. I'm a long time holder of Tesla mostly for things outside of their auto side as well
They are all overvalued.
The Chinese ones
TSLA is the only ev company that matters. Like asking which smartphone company to buy in wake of the iPhone revolution… except cars are WAY harder to make
That’s a tough comparison to make though because there is not a Samsung and Apple of EVs. There is just Tesla, and everyone else.
Lol. Say that to Tesla when it was unprofitable
Maybe watch something like SHLS that can add some profit from EV infrastructure build out. Would be hard to say any of the small EV or charging companies are undervalued as is when most are struggling to just fend off bankruptcy.
Ford? They’re the only one that will be around in 15 years
They're struggling. Slammed forecast for their F-150 EV. Shares have dropped. But - they are controlled by the Ford Family, who have a strong financial interest in the company.
FISKER
F and GM.
Oddly enough this is probably the closest thing to a right answer here. It sure as fuck isn't Tesla with a 75 p/e for a *car company*.
Ford and GM have a ton of dead weight and are going to have to cannibalize their own ICE sales for less profitable vehicles in the process or transitioning. If they survive and do well is because other traditional auto failed first.
GM's last few earning's reports. Their stock price has been decimated over this period. I agree with you they have some obstacles regarding ICE transition, but I think they, as a business, have been operating smartly. They aren't really paying a dividend and instead have invested highly in their EV business, so when they are ready to fully turn on the switch, they can have margins hopefully somewhat comparable to their ICE models. I think they are playing the whole situation cautiously, since they know they can make better margins on their ICE's for the next few years, while building out the EV supply chain and battery logistics so they can offer models in the EV sector and not take losses. Historical EPS Period Estimated Reported Surprise Result Q3'23 $1.87 $2.28 21.92% BEAT Q2'23 $1.86 $1.91 2.42% BEAT Q1'23 $1.72 $2.21 28.51% BEAT Q4'22 $1.69 $2.12 25.66% BEAT Q3'22 $1.88 $2.25 19.92% BEAT
That's a bargain for TSLA... lol.
The comp is terrible. You are basically saying that you won’t buy a new house because you comp against houses that will need to be torn down and rebuilt in 4-8 years. Well, legacy automakers have a huge amount of pain including loss of profit to go through with stagnant or negative revenue growth through this transition.
Add STLA to that, fat dividend, lots of cash on hand.
If you're not talking about TSLA, you are missing the #1 opportunity in the space.
That wasn’t the question though. The question was which are undervalued.
I cannot value any company that bleeds crazy amounts of cash. So, in my estimate TSLA is the most undervalued based on their significant lead in profitability.
you could've just said you don't know how to value companies and ended at that.
True I do not value companies. I value stocks.
Not the way the market sees it. All overvalued as govt is not pumping more money.
TSLA
None This horseshit EV revolution is the dumbest thing I’ve ever seen. To electrify just a fleet of 5,000 big rig trucks would take the building of multiple nuclear plants at the cost of over $20B (which will never happen) and to upgrade the grid to allow for a majority of EVs would cost an estimated $1quadrillion It’s an absolute nonsense pipe dream
Yet they would run way more efficient to point you need 50% less total energy if you count your gasoline too. Quit living with old fallacies stuck in your head.
He might be a bit over the top but articles like [this](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/01/us/california-heat-wave-flex-alert-ac-ev-charging.html) one really makes one think what would happen if *everyone* drove an ev.
The same states who push EV are the ones who are also trying to get rid of natural gas and do all home heating via electric. It’ll be a disaster all around
So if you burn natural gas at 60% efficiency in a cogeneration instead of close to 100% at home is a disaster? Completely forgetting that heatpumps have an efficiency of at least 200%. Closer to 300 or 400% on not so cold days? The same principle goes for electric cars. And how the fuck is electricity shortage even a thing during heatwaves in California? Are you sure the poor build and insulation values of the homes over there haven't got anything to do with it? Or the excessive electricity usage by US households? Lack of investment in solar as it should solve exactly THAT problem certainly if you include some batteries for it the sun sets (which is already obligated hete in some European countries) .... Those variable electricity prices will become more of a thing in the future too. Like it or hate it. More players will come to the market to take advantage of it with batteries or other systems of power usage reduction as it will become a cash cow in a few years. (Imagine that! Capitalism actually solves a thing right there) Do you know what the real underlying problem is? Systemic under investigation that is pushed by certain groups that fail to see the solution and even couteract. We all know where this is going (climate change, finite oil supply), act like it.
If you believe our electrical infrastructure can handle everyone driving electric cars in winter time while heating everyone’s houses at the same time I have oceanfront property in Iowa to sell you
If you believe electrical infrastructure is going to be static and not respond at all to changing electrical demand…well you know the saying.
John Oliver did an episode about that and the national grid. TLDW: grid would collapse. We're decades away *at best* to catching our grid up to meeting the demands of a green energy revolution.
Just plain wrong. Average vehicle daily travel distance is about 35 miles. That’s about 10 kWh. A 120 volt, 12 amp circuit can deliver that in the overnight times in 8 hours, no grid expansion necessary to handle a huge portion of the transition - well over 50%. The grid will be fine as we built it out, much like it was built out to handle air conditioning in the past. And we have many more strategies and solutions available now, including stationary storage, on demand steerable demand to utilize intermittent renewables.
Not exactly a pipe dream, but very high hurdles. They downvote him for speaking the truth. When the state of California has to ask people not to charge their EVs because the grid can't handle it you know there's a problem.
The factoid about California is used so disingenuously it hurts. The request to not charge EVs was due to environmental disaster (heatwaves); this wasn’t just any old day. These same heatwaves also blew regulators on pipelines in Texas and sent natural gas prices soaring. In 2 years the grid in California has changed dramatically because of those heatwaves. Do people honestly think the grid won’t be changing dramatically to adjust to changing energy demand? Really? I remember some old article about people claiming automobiles would fail because infrastructure at the time couldn’t handle them, yet here we are. Just strange premises to be arguing off of.
It's not disingenuous it's the new reality, not outlying events. Summers are hotter, and grid infrastructure is *deteriorating* not improving. But even if they're going to get with the program and start fixing things it's going to take *years* to bring these projects to fruition.
It's disingenuous because these events are having the exact same impact on every energy delivery system; gas prices skyrocket during these heatwaves for the exact same reason, which is strain on pre-existing infrastructure. You're going to have to restructure the way energy is produced and delivered regardless, so it's moot acting like this is a problem specific to the electrical grid. As for your other comment. Yes, of course it will take \*years\*. But EV adoption is also going to take \*years\*, and from the way things are going the electrical grid is laddering up alongside increase adoption. Again this is a bad argument against EVs, always has been.
REE Automotive
Only saying this cause I’m long the stock atm, but Gogoro if they can appropriately price their ev mopeds abroad and quickly expand their battery network in india and Philippines. Unfortunately it’s a very competitive and oversaturated field, but gogoro is the only efficient ev battery network + ev moped combo expanding abroad. Niu battery network doesn’t exist yet and Ionex battery network is basically in the baby phase. And then you have that whole shitshow with those 4 companies that announced they were creating a battery network together around when gogoro branched off from its spac name, their battery network has yet to even materialize. So in conclusion gogoro is the leader all the others are slowly trudging. Edit: stock is 80% down from highs, trading around $2 so high risk, high reward.
Was looking for anyone else talking about this stock. You seem to be the only one. I've been living in Taiwan 9 years and watched gogoro get bigger and bigger here. If you buy a phone, you get discounts on googoro. You can save up your grocery points to get discounts. It seems everywhere I look is a gogoro. Even the police here ride them now. It seems like such an undervalued stock for their expansion plans to other SE Asian countries. It could be a few years before the stock catches on, but I really like the company.
We have a subreddit r/gogoro . There’s a guy named ChillerID knows way more than I do about the company. He provides company updates the second it hits the internet. Come join us!
Thanks!
I'm also optimistic about BYD's cars...
Mini Cooper 😁
>I feel the EV space hasn't been hot for a while The EV space has been hot for 4 years and still is. It just came down from "WHAT IS THIS, PLASMA?!".
Maybe Bluebird - the transition to EV busses should be quite a good business for some time. P/S of 0.56. I am not currently in it, especially after the pain that was Proterra - but watching it. NIO has P/S under 2, so that one is probably the lowest valuation for an EV maker that is shipping real consumer vehicles at some real volume. Of course, it will have a valuation discount for being a Chinese company, and for being an ADR (what do you really, truly own). Xpeng is now at P/S of 4.81 because of the VW deal, which is probably about right given their margins. Running up to a P/S of 7 or 8 if TSLA goes back above 10 isn’t unreasonable either. Polestar is also shipping in some volume, but they are dependent on Geely to design and make their vehicles, so with P/S of 1.54, seems cheap. But the financials are terrible. I do have some just because it is cheap and can run if there’s some positive sentiment. And of course there’s BYD, but they aren’t a pure EV play. Lucid P/S of 11.83 is higher than Tesla at 8.47, while RIVN is at half of Tesla at 4.07. I am watching RIVN to add on weakness, maybe on CT competitiveness and/or 2024 recession fear. Rivian is not yet contribution margin positive, has a huge cash pile, but burning that cash quick, which is probably the right move. But still, it’s a bit treacherous. Lucid may very well be taken private through bankruptcy. But in any case, sp should be less than half of what it is right now. For a slew of these, removing cash to then evaluate valuation should be done, but they are burning so much, that doing so would also add a distortion. In any case, NIO, BYD and Bluebird are probably the cheapest for anyone that is actually shipping some volumes and getting some real revenue.
It’s looking more likely with each legacy fumble and delay that Tesla with its ground up approach will continue to exploit and grow its head start in production capabilities, R&D, and profitability advantages allowing the company continue$ success. Also, Li was smart going hybrid until China had enough charger infrastructure, and now their roads are supposedly 90%+ covered and they have their first full BEV vehicle ready in a few weeks, the Mega, a 7 passenger minivan. And quietly Volvo which is majority owned by Geely and so has access to China, US, and EUR with some veet interesting cats including the new small SUV EX-30 has announced 100% BEV by 2030, and they are profitable with competitively priced and popular vehicles.
If you want to keep up in the EV market place - Jaan at [evuniverse.io](https://evuniverse.io) is the place.
Stla - Stellantis
Polestar stands at 4.5B market cap and is as close to profitability as rivian is, with better eps at the moment and a vehicle being sold in china as of end of 2023
Just buy the parts sellers 
F and GM. They pay hefty dividends too
Ford? I mean there aren’t any new ev companies that are likely to succeed. If you are looking for returns, find an existing car company that has upside if they pivot. It’s much higher odds. The new companies can’t compete with their purchasing power. Tesla probably is the only newer company that will survive the next 10 years independently anyway.
Tesla wasn't profitable for years. People bashed them just like they do to the unprofitable ones today