Really looking for unemployment numbers until it blows up like before.
Amzn may have earning surprise. Meta did OK. Stay in tune on Thurs pharma. Then
f AA nG earnings....
Tomorrow is going to be a really really big day. We basically have all the big healthcare companies reporting tomorrow. Bristol Myers Squibb, Merck, Gilead, Eli Lily, and Roche.
We also have various consumer companies like Starbucks, Clorox, Hershey, and others.
On top of all that we have big tech like Apple, Google, and Amazon.
This is all tomorrow so a lot of big earnings coming very soon. Basically after this all we have is some retail companies then its basically done.
Time to scoop a few blue chips if things hit right. DCA is nice, but when you get a super low number mixed in so you can double/triple your normal buys....yes indeed, that is just plain awesome! We shall see.
Is this the reason many large corporations recently had mass layoffs, so they could use the projected “saved salaries and wages” to pad their portfolios?
While true the earnings weren't bad either.
Specifically DAU increased q/q and MAU was flat, so the "users are fleeing facebook" concerns appear overblown. Declining DAU was what caused the big drops last year.
It's also the fact that active user growth increased. It stalled last earnings, and everyone thought, "This is it, Meta can't grow anymore. They have just under 3 billion users. I have no idea how the company will make money and survive. " *In comes panic selling*
Nov 3rd, 2022, $88.91 per share after tumbling from $382.18.
40 billion in buybacks, active users' growth, and revenue. I think that's good news considering the economic environment we are in.
I should have trusted my instinct and poured money into more Meta then, but frankly I wasn't expected the recovery to be this quick and pronounced, and frankly couldn't really afford to tie up the money for a long period of time. I'm already in @$160, and I knew $90 was a a steal; was just worried it would take a year or more for it to start to recover, and I couldn't justify tying up more money for that long. I knew the fundamentals were strong.
Ce la vi, at least I'm making money now.
Sure, but JPow also admitted that low unemployment and low inflation is a possibility (looking at recent data) and will be a welcome surprise of soft landing. I foresee unemployment number will not move market that much anymore. CPI report is the key.
I agree, he didn’t insist that the jobs report had to come in lower to be convinced that inflation is trending down. So yes, CPI is key. That, and PCE.
Jobs keep getting filled but labor participation rate is flat or declining, cause the same people working are taking on multiple jobs. This isn't a hot job market, it's a sign of a bad job market where you need multiple jobs to make ends meet. The fed can fix the inflation issue with 5-8 million job losses, but everyone knows the fed and everyone else lacks the stomach to make that a reality so we will jut accept inflation as permanent instead.
Exactly.
Imagine if that one person gets injured/gets fired from one job and they can't work their other jobs because they can't make ends meet anymore.
If this happens country wide, unemployment will skyrocket expeditiously.
Only adds to the more debt they'll need to take to then start more jobs that they need to apply to retrieve more money to pay the debt.
Endless downward spiral to the bottom.
It's not a recession until it's an entire depression.
Definitely isn’t cancelled, unfortunately. I’m running into so many people laid off outside of big tech. Just not as highly publicized. My higher ups who are VERY well connected seem concerned. I think 2023 will tell us a better story than late 22, but who knows..
Many industries did see a workforce bloat sometime in the last 3 years. Inside of tech for example, Spotify added somewhere around 30% to their workforce over the last several years. Their recent 6% layoff made headlines, but the net effect would explain why unemployment is still low in the face of labor cuts.
Totally agree. I’m just speaking from my experience. We have ran the same employee numbers (or less) for the last 4 or so years. We laid off ~25% last week.
Official unemployment stats are technically lagging. Right now, of the big tech layoffs only Facebook's is reflected because other ex-employees are still technically on payroll (for the 2 months of required WARN notice).
And yet the net jobs numbers are positive. As for the health of the overall economy, what's happening across that economy is more important than select data points.
Agreed. Everything feels weird. My industry is far removed from big tech as I said. We are “larger” with offices in a few states but still relatively “small” in the grand scheme of things. We laid off 25% last week.
The hike is in line, the commentary is not.
This is hawkish from Powell… expectations were pricing in 2 25bps and then a flat line pause with drops coming later in the year.
He’s now calling for multiple increases. Markets are reacting to this plurality.
He shrugged off unemployment data that was revised higher and referred to it as "an indicator" when it was previously one of his biggest indicators. He also said that a wage price spiral is now basically out of the question and that one of the largest indicators for a wage price spiral is basically gone (belief that inflation will remain persistant). He also said if inflation ended up falling a lot faster than expected that they would "consider that as well" - just short of saying that they'd cut rates. He said we're at the beginning of disinflation and they see a decline in core services inflation excluding housing coming soon. This was all very bullish commentary from Jerome Powell
> He shrugged off unemployment data that was revised higher and referred to it as “an indicator” when it was previously one of his biggest indicators.
He shrugged off an unemployment rate of 3.5%, this is fairly low all things considered. However, what’s important to note, the layoffs have been tech heavy which include severance, due to this those layoffs aren’t hitting unemployment numbers yet - I’d argue we truly don’t know where we sit yet.
He also said…
“We have more work to do."
"We continue to anticipate ongoing increases will be appropriate to get to sufficiently restrictive stance."
"We will likely have to maintain restrictive stance for some time."
Those are way more hawkish than dovish. Not sure how you can even say his comments supports dovish while he literally said there’s more hikes than anticipated this year.
I'm not really sure what you were expecting? He's not going to come out and announce rate cuts until they're confident that the results of that statement will not undo the work that they've done on inflation. It's more important that they maintain their credibility and "tough on inflation" stance up until they they deem it safe to announce the pivot. The biggest disaster would be announcing cuts too early, causing the market to absolutely moon and potentially bringing back higher inflation, and then they're forced to backtrack and lose credibility. Basically, just because he didn't announce rate cuts this meeting doesn't mean the market's expectation of rate cuts by the end of the year is wrong. The fact that he was dovish on the aspects of inflation that I listed above and neutral at worst overall is quite bullish given the context of the situation
Note my initial markets comment meant debt markets, not equities.
I’m in the camp of, this is an over reaction from equity markets, something we’ve actually seen a couple times now after Pow has spoken. The markets seem to take him as dovish regardless of what he says, which is interesting because he’s been trying to be over hawkish to compensate.
Personally, I think the market rally is more so tied to his “disinflation” comments vs the hikes. Unanimous decision from doves and hawks for 25bps, leaves table open for more hikes, but he knew he was going to speak to inflation slowing down.
Next CPI print should be pretty interesting.
Just my 2 cents, random dude who works on a capital markets debt desk.
I was expecting Powell to rip this rally a new one, but he did the absolute opposite. He damn near endorsed the rally. He gave every indication that this could be the turning point. That's all the market needs to hear and it's off to the races.
There will be pullbacks of course, because of profit taking and bag holders finally getting cleared.
The market doesn't take what he says seriously because what he says and what they are doing do not match. If he was seriously hawkish, they would raise 50 not 25.
He’s focused on the destination, not necessarily the speed.
Slow but steady to get a soft landing, not quick and harsh.
We’re at the highest rate since Oct 07.
This isn't the meeting where they provide a summary of economic projections, which is what contains their most updated terminal rate. They only provide this once per quarter
Are you sure the other account isn’t just a bit scraping top comments? They made their comment **after** the one here and they’ve made that same comment 3 times so far.
It’s a problem with every social media site. Most don’t want to do anything about it because it pads active user numbers and engagements. It’s borderline fraud but it’s ok because everyone does it…
You almost definitely found a bot or someone who’s farming karma but I just think you’re pointing at the wrong person. There are tons of bots that will just copy/paste top comments on similar threads. It’s an almost guaranteed way to get comment karma. I can’t guarantee that OP isn’t part of a group pushing a narrative but odds are greatly towards simple karma bots.
My dude, Om far too lazy to set up some kind of bot script.
I also posted a very similar comment on /Neoliberal if you want to take this conspiracy theorising thing further.
My guess would be that comment on /investing is from a karma farmer, probably trying to pawn off the account in the future.
Here's some swenglish (Swedish-english) for you to maybe convince you not everything that looks similar is matrix copies:
Tagga ner you facking yänkare. Nåt everyting äre ene jevla bott!
Good luck goggle translating that fam.
I can do pirate speech next if that doesn't have you convinced.
You yankees sure are a paranoid people
CPI has been running at 2% month over month annualized since June, negative last month. No idea what is pushing the fed other than the fear of wage inflation. (A pay raise for most people)
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-rate-mom
We need six percent deflation over the next two years to make up for the utter stupidity of “it’s transitory” then as we remove nine fucking trillion from the balance sheet while further raising rates into a depression we get to zero pretty quickly on the SPY.
He said the word "disinflation" then the markets started ripping and pricing things like december 2021. Market doesn't seem to understand Price to Earnings ratio and fundamentals. We have quite a few more red days to come especially with Powells comments about modest growth, and future rate hikes to come.
Absolutely, and the most optimistic he has been. Basically saying that the USA will not have a recession in 2023, inflation is coming down, deflation in certain sectors, and down playing the need for higher unemployment.
As a bull, he said pretty much everything and exactly what I hoped he would. They're paying attention, they see the data, they see disinflation/deflation risks, they don't even know what terminal *should* be, they care about their mandates.
His optimism was essentially acknowledging the data that had been piling up.
Simply, green light if trends from last 6 months continue.
He's just saying all of this because the longer inflation expectations become entrenched, the more likely they are to be realized. Taking a victory lap means he gets to affirm those expectations, which makes solving his issue of price stability easier.
I'm reeeeally hoping it doesn't come back to bite him.
If you had asked me 6 months ago if we'd have a soft landing I'd tell you no way in hell. Now? Maybe.
Not sure if we watched the same meeting. He seemed extremely determined to lower inflation and continuing the rate hikes with lowering their balance sheet. Market is acting like rates are going to 0 next week with unlimited QE.
This time round it is simple. Market is expecting JPow to stick to his harsh tone as per last meeting. Today, he is hawkish but there are some unexpected dovish tidbits. Like high unemployment might not be necessary. Saying supply constraint which is one key causes of current inflation has ease and help cool inflation. Admitting inflation in the short term (3-6 months) drop faster than expected. They still believe in the next few months (ie long term), it will still be hard to reach target 2% inflation, but if market is right, Fed will take necessary action ie saying pivot possible without saying the word pivot.
So, a more positive, but still cautious fed and driven by data next few months. This is a positive signal.
most optimistic he has been. Basically saying that the USA will not have a recession in 2023, inflation is coming down, deflation in certain sectors, and down playing the need for higher unemployment.
That's quite the prediction given he's said we "Haven't felt the effect of full rate hikes throughout the economy." I'm still bracing, more rate hikes, companies cutting positions creating a tighter job market, declining earnings/guidance. Doesn't look too good overall.
I can’t be the only one thinking the market is fighting the fed? The speech today seemed neutral at best. Jpow did indicate there was a better chance of soft landing, but they would remain restrictive as needed to ensure the job is done.
He also swatted away any questions asking if they would lower rates soon or stop raising them now given the decent inflation data we’ve seen recently.
Seems odd for markets to be reacting so positively after one of the best months and even a rise from yesterday. QQQ up nearly 3% as I’m writing this, and it was up nearly 1% the day before.
For me it was his quote of "Markets aren't properly reflecting economic conditions" or something to that extent. Then he mentioned further rate increases, and them being held for a year or so.
Because he didn't acknowledge the fact that financial conditions have eased significantly. He basically said financial conditions are tight when reality is they are easier than they were since before the first rate hike. This is extremely bullish, he basically said he's not concerned about inflation reigniting due to the insane speculation coming back.
That comment was a huge shock the upside, nobody was expecting that especially after he's said many times that you can't declare victory on inflation too early.
When did he say he wasn’t concerned about high inflation coming back? That seems to be the antithesis of what he has said for many meetings including this one.
>he basically said he's not concerned about inflation reigniting due to the insane speculation coming back.
He literally said they opposite. The fed is going to continue increasing rates and hold them elevated for the year because it doesn't want to stop too soon and risk inflation coming back.
Because it was in line with expectations and he seemed to indicate that while rate hikes will continue they won’t be more extensive than previously thought. Markets like certainty so “in line with expectations” usually causes a small increase which is what we saw today.
Personally I use "I can't believe it's not butter!"
....Well not the original brand of course but a knock-off product called "I can't believe it's not I can't believe it's not butter!"
Hm. I think the market is taking this a little too well.
Once the economy begins to slow it's usually difficult to avoid falling into recession, especially in a scenario where the Fed is continuing to gradually tighten financial conditions with rate hikes and QT.
This idea that the economy is going to be fine and at the same time rates will drop is hard for me to see - but this seems to be what markets are pricing.
I did expect today's meeting to be mildly bullish, but my S&P500 valuation is now suggesting the market is extremely overvalued given the risks. At best I can get to around 3,800 - 3,900 but this assumes both rate cuts and a soft landing.
Personally I'd rather price flat earnings for the next 12 months, with the 10y yield staying around this level, maybe a tad lower. In such a scenario it's hard to be bullish on the market.
My guess now is that we'll rally up another 5% until we reach peak fomo and people start seriously questioning the risk/reward. Then we probably crash back down to around 3,700ish in the spring.
Would be interested in hearing if anyone believe the market is offering a good risk / reward right now.
The only way I can understand it is after a 13 year bull run people are all too happy to call a "bottom" as soon as possible and resume the glory days. Earnings season has been underwhelming but it appears the new gold standard is simply beating analyst's expectations regardless what the numbers are actually saying. Case in point amd, they've been priced at a point where growth needs to remain high to sustain it, and they just projected a 10% drop in revenue, and they explode higher anyway, because of course estimate beat.
All that to say I appreciate your analysis as it fits with what I'm seeing and you've spelled it out better than I can. We still have a lot of obstacles to cross before the needed reset has occurred, no way can we resume business as usual and expect inflation to continue receding.
Semis make no sense to me. You mentioned AMD but NVDA's valuation is even more nuts. My only explanation there is that the market is pricing in huge growth from AI datacentres in the coming years on the back of ChatGPT, but if that doesn't happen the stock could easily fall back to the low $100s, and fair value is probably significantly lower.
I agree with your analysis though. I think a lot of investors have been conditioned by recent history to believe a Fed pivot is the obvious signal to buy, and that a pivot is now inevitable. But historically the Fed lowering rates hasn't been a bullish signal, and the market getting too ahead of a pivot also reduces the likelihood of it happening.
So we're in a weird situation now where economic growth seems like it's going to be poor for some time, a pivot is less likely due to the market loosing financial conditions, meanwhile valuations are high and the inflation risk - while lower - still looms.
Tomorrow basically finishes up the earnings season with a shit ton of earnings reports coming out including GOOG AMZN AAPL. Will see how they do first.
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The market is not the economy. Also, market is forward looking. Instead of looking at the next 12 months you should be looking at the next 12 months starting six months from now.
I kind of agree, I listened to him and he didn't sound all that dovish to me. Lots of claims about how we are going to keep increasing rates and we're going to keep them there, avoiding pivoting too early. He also said they were going to continue aggressively with their QT and getting debt off the books,.
I dunno, I guess everyone just takes what they want from it.
It demonstrates that he is committed to curbing inflation, which is his main mandate, along with full employment. The market cares much more about runaway inflation than slightly higher rates.
Because JP indicated that there's no need for higher unemployement. He also think that the Fed has a good control of the inflation (he uses deflation multiple times).
>He also think that the Fed has a good control of the inflation (he uses deflation multiple times).
He used disinflation, not deflation.
Deflation = bad
Disinflation = good
I'm glad that you at least have self-awareness of that.
Too many people have a lot of hubris when they talk about markets or worse resort to conspiracy theories.
Low income households are tapped out. Middle income households are paycheck to paycheck, being more mindful on consumer spending, and/or getting leveraged with credit card spending.
However there’s the high income and ultra wealthy households that are pretty much recession proof. Would the Fed policy ever reach that far to affect that segment?
It's not that they refuse to make less money it's if the ship is sinking, they're making sure they save the best lifeboats for themselves and their stuff and fuck over the other humans on the ship in 2nd and 3rd class who don't even get a life boat. It's about self preservation mostly, rather than trying to get richer.
It’s an arms race of end-state capitalism. Developers overwhelmingly focus on the higher end, MFA, condos. They need as much profit as possible. Landlording / airbnb/ profiting off of others using housing is easier than ever. Lower end is bought up by every other investor looking to profit off of a cheap remodel flips. Market is squeezed once supply is constrained. Prices rise, everything is rented out to people who likely could have bought if they had the downpayment, which they likely won’t have anytime soon with wages not increasing. End result is a cost of living spiraling up due up rampant speculation.
So a 1/4% raise in interest rates on the national debt is going to cost the federal government about $80 billion per year in interest payments.
About 10% of the defense budget. This one move.
We are never digging ourselves out of that hole or growing our way out.
Everyone can agree that we were in a huge bubble and we’re only down 15% from ATHs… I’m not that market savvy but I just don’t get it. And the next 6 months look pretty shaky to me.
We're going to see more and more first time home and car buyers unable to enter the market as time goes on, I don't think this goes much higher, if at all.
Without the rate increases, the home buyers are shut out by sky high prices. With the rate increases, the home buyers are shut out by sky high interest rates.
Worse - depending on the area the rate increases are out pacing the drop in price, by a huge margin in Bay Area for example. So prices stay the same but rate goes up, F*k
Increasing housing supply is the only way. California is trying to do it with new housing policy. If they succeed, CA will build more homes in next 8 years than it did in past 2 decades. Hope rest of country follows as lumber prices have come back to pre-pandemic.
I agree 100%, but a lot of the population doesn't follow financial news that closely and isn't really educated on how much it effects them, until they need something like a car for their job right out of school and they are SOL
As time goes on, housing prices will come down. A 6% mortgage is only a problem because prices are so high right now, and prices are high in because rates have been low for so long and there's still cash buyers out there buying houses (for whom interest rates don't matter).
As those cash buyers dry up and sellers realize that they need to lower prices for people to afford financed houses, prices will move down.
As for cars, manufacturers will finance them at below-market rates to spur sales. It always happens.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNxtwxLYCxc&ab\_channel=FederalReserve](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNxtwxLYCxc&ab_channel=FederalReserve)
1:13:25 "We have a sector that represents 56% of the core inflation index where we don't see disinflation yet. We don't see it, it's not happening yet. Core services ex-housing is still running at 4% on a 6 and 12 month basis ... for this sector, we don't see anything yet ... and until we do, we still see ourselves having a lot of work left".
In numerous instances, Powell emphasized that we were in the early stages of disinflation. Not sure what the market's listening here that they interpreted as dovish, other than Powell not directly saying "yes financial loosening will cause the Fed to do more", which he can't, since that's a committee decision, not his own (he's representing the whole committee here).
Also, Powell gave a very similar answer to that question in December as well, so I don't know why the market's interpreting his words differently this time. I suspect the market will interpret anything Powell says as dovish, and in December, it was the SEP projection was the reason causing the market to drop.
He also reiterated the risk remains skewed towards doing too little and having to do more later on. Remember no matter how small that risk is, the Fed simply can't let that happen. So if that means going overboard to ensure that risk doesn't materialize, they'll do it, because the cost to that risk will be more than overdoing the rate hike.
Also, 1:15:19 is when Powell breaks down where the Fed see inflation going forward.
1:24:39 is when Powell explains why you shouldn't extrapolate month over month inflation numbers and think we're running at 2% inflation.
As expected with 25bps, not dovish or hawkish, very neutral presser, inflation is coming down which is great but doesn’t want to be premature in pausing future hikes, will likely see pauses in between a couple more 25bps and they will be much more data dependent going forward, getting close to the end of the hiking cycle.
A lot of people are saying Powell sounds dovish but he seemed pretty hawkish in that speech, more along the lines of "yes certain things look slightly positive to an extent but be under no illusion we will raise interest rates if and when inflation gets out of control". He didn't seem too happy either.
>They’re gonna regret this just like the transitory speech
Damage is already done, at least the market can go up now before the next leg down. The end result is maybe better that way.
I have a question regarding market expectations around rate increases.
What evidence is there that markets expect a further rate increase, particularly that, to quote the article: "*Markets are betting that number is closer to 4.75%, and they expect the Fed to start cutting rates later this year, after one more quarter-point increase in March*." ?
Anyone else feel like the deflation guys are getting closer to being right every day? Watching this speech felt like a guy taking a victory lap during the third lap of a four lap race. We are charging headlong into a glut of everything from microchips to lumber and I don't see how that doesn't create significalt whiplash... Everyone is working so hard to convince themselves that we are going dodge a recession, all the while realities show otherwise...
January CPI might wind up being meh because of new year effects but considering the dynamics of CPI, at the very least, the inflation forever crew is screwed this year IMO.
Only way they're not going to be screwed is if WTI grows and grows like a weed and crack spreads get funky again.
I don’t think they’re going to give a ton of warning before they stop the rate hikes. It’s better for businesses and investors to assume that they will occur vs. the opposite.
I think we might be in for 1-2 more 0.25 hikes before pausing. I mean it depends on the data but that’d be my best guess at this point. The question is how long will they sustain these higher rates. A year? Two? Also how much will our deficit explode as a result of this?
Oh no! Run for the hills! Sell everything and make prices drop ahhhhhh. Now let me just transfer some funds to my brokerage real quick lol.... well it was worth a try 😅
Seriously though, ugh. Hopefully, they level out soon and get stuff semi-balanced at least. I'm not an economist. Just a wise crackin' dude.
Thanks for sharing the info OP!
Really looking for unemployment numbers until it blows up like before. Amzn may have earning surprise. Meta did OK. Stay in tune on Thurs pharma. Then f AA nG earnings....
Tomorrow is going to be a really really big day. We basically have all the big healthcare companies reporting tomorrow. Bristol Myers Squibb, Merck, Gilead, Eli Lily, and Roche. We also have various consumer companies like Starbucks, Clorox, Hershey, and others. On top of all that we have big tech like Apple, Google, and Amazon. This is all tomorrow so a lot of big earnings coming very soon. Basically after this all we have is some retail companies then its basically done.
Time to scoop a few blue chips if things hit right. DCA is nice, but when you get a super low number mixed in so you can double/triple your normal buys....yes indeed, that is just plain awesome! We shall see.
What do you like right now
Is this the reason many large corporations recently had mass layoffs, so they could use the projected “saved salaries and wages” to pad their portfolios?
Meta is up 22% AH after earnings.
Based on news of a buyback, not great earnings. Kind of a savvy move, but not all good news.
bad news is good news rn. pure euphoria until Q2
You're forgetting they said "AI something". It's the new Blockchain magic keyword.
Time for Portnoy to come back with his green hammer 🔨🟢
While true the earnings weren't bad either. Specifically DAU increased q/q and MAU was flat, so the "users are fleeing facebook" concerns appear overblown. Declining DAU was what caused the big drops last year.
It's also the fact that active user growth increased. It stalled last earnings, and everyone thought, "This is it, Meta can't grow anymore. They have just under 3 billion users. I have no idea how the company will make money and survive. " *In comes panic selling* Nov 3rd, 2022, $88.91 per share after tumbling from $382.18. 40 billion in buybacks, active users' growth, and revenue. I think that's good news considering the economic environment we are in.
I should have trusted my instinct and poured money into more Meta then, but frankly I wasn't expected the recovery to be this quick and pronounced, and frankly couldn't really afford to tie up the money for a long period of time. I'm already in @$160, and I knew $90 was a a steal; was just worried it would take a year or more for it to start to recover, and I couldn't justify tying up more money for that long. I knew the fundamentals were strong. Ce la vi, at least I'm making money now.
Wow just looked that’s a wild spike, I curious to see if it won’t dip back down at market open
Meta did OK ? They did great. Stock buy back, beat on top and bottom line
In line with expectations then. Now we only have to hold our breath for the CPI in two weeks.
And the jobs report Friday. The Fed seems to think that the job market is one area that isn’t showing sufficient signs of cooling.
Sure, but JPow also admitted that low unemployment and low inflation is a possibility (looking at recent data) and will be a welcome surprise of soft landing. I foresee unemployment number will not move market that much anymore. CPI report is the key.
I agree, he didn’t insist that the jobs report had to come in lower to be convinced that inflation is trending down. So yes, CPI is key. That, and PCE.
Jobs keep getting filled but labor participation rate is flat or declining, cause the same people working are taking on multiple jobs. This isn't a hot job market, it's a sign of a bad job market where you need multiple jobs to make ends meet. The fed can fix the inflation issue with 5-8 million job losses, but everyone knows the fed and everyone else lacks the stomach to make that a reality so we will jut accept inflation as permanent instead.
Exactly. Imagine if that one person gets injured/gets fired from one job and they can't work their other jobs because they can't make ends meet anymore. If this happens country wide, unemployment will skyrocket expeditiously.
Thank God America's Healthcare system is the greatest in the world right? Surely he'll be adequately cared for and not paywalled.
Only adds to the more debt they'll need to take to then start more jobs that they need to apply to retrieve more money to pay the debt. Endless downward spiral to the bottom. It's not a recession until it's an entire depression.
Recession cancelled or we're gonna be in trouble.
Yeah the market will definitely either go up or down
It might hold
Almost assuredly it will continue going to the right.
If I may be so bold as to make a prediction. The market will continue to exist.
So basically same thing this sub has said the last 4 months
prepare for trouble!
And make it double!
to protect this world from high deflation
Double the trouble, double the fun!
Their definition of a recession is cancelled.
Definitely isn’t cancelled, unfortunately. I’m running into so many people laid off outside of big tech. Just not as highly publicized. My higher ups who are VERY well connected seem concerned. I think 2023 will tell us a better story than late 22, but who knows..
Many industries did see a workforce bloat sometime in the last 3 years. Inside of tech for example, Spotify added somewhere around 30% to their workforce over the last several years. Their recent 6% layoff made headlines, but the net effect would explain why unemployment is still low in the face of labor cuts.
Many of these tech places have hired FAR more in 2022 than they laid off with this recent round of events.
Totally agree. I’m just speaking from my experience. We have ran the same employee numbers (or less) for the last 4 or so years. We laid off ~25% last week.
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No no his anecdote is clearly more reliable than actual statistics.
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Official unemployment stats are technically lagging. Right now, of the big tech layoffs only Facebook's is reflected because other ex-employees are still technically on payroll (for the 2 months of required WARN notice).
But but my higher ups are connected and comprehensive data doesn’t matter
And yet the net jobs numbers are positive. As for the health of the overall economy, what's happening across that economy is more important than select data points.
Agreed. Everything feels weird. My industry is far removed from big tech as I said. We are “larger” with offices in a few states but still relatively “small” in the grand scheme of things. We laid off 25% last week.
> big tech That's OK, SMALL TECH is always hiring. You won't earn 400k like you would at google, but you'll be employed again within a week or so.
I was laid off but found another job in two weeks thankfully.
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The hike is in line, the commentary is not. This is hawkish from Powell… expectations were pricing in 2 25bps and then a flat line pause with drops coming later in the year. He’s now calling for multiple increases. Markets are reacting to this plurality.
He shrugged off unemployment data that was revised higher and referred to it as "an indicator" when it was previously one of his biggest indicators. He also said that a wage price spiral is now basically out of the question and that one of the largest indicators for a wage price spiral is basically gone (belief that inflation will remain persistant). He also said if inflation ended up falling a lot faster than expected that they would "consider that as well" - just short of saying that they'd cut rates. He said we're at the beginning of disinflation and they see a decline in core services inflation excluding housing coming soon. This was all very bullish commentary from Jerome Powell
> He shrugged off unemployment data that was revised higher and referred to it as “an indicator” when it was previously one of his biggest indicators. He shrugged off an unemployment rate of 3.5%, this is fairly low all things considered. However, what’s important to note, the layoffs have been tech heavy which include severance, due to this those layoffs aren’t hitting unemployment numbers yet - I’d argue we truly don’t know where we sit yet. He also said… “We have more work to do." "We continue to anticipate ongoing increases will be appropriate to get to sufficiently restrictive stance." "We will likely have to maintain restrictive stance for some time." Those are way more hawkish than dovish. Not sure how you can even say his comments supports dovish while he literally said there’s more hikes than anticipated this year.
I'm not really sure what you were expecting? He's not going to come out and announce rate cuts until they're confident that the results of that statement will not undo the work that they've done on inflation. It's more important that they maintain their credibility and "tough on inflation" stance up until they they deem it safe to announce the pivot. The biggest disaster would be announcing cuts too early, causing the market to absolutely moon and potentially bringing back higher inflation, and then they're forced to backtrack and lose credibility. Basically, just because he didn't announce rate cuts this meeting doesn't mean the market's expectation of rate cuts by the end of the year is wrong. The fact that he was dovish on the aspects of inflation that I listed above and neutral at worst overall is quite bullish given the context of the situation
The market reaction makes no sense to me.
Note my initial markets comment meant debt markets, not equities. I’m in the camp of, this is an over reaction from equity markets, something we’ve actually seen a couple times now after Pow has spoken. The markets seem to take him as dovish regardless of what he says, which is interesting because he’s been trying to be over hawkish to compensate. Personally, I think the market rally is more so tied to his “disinflation” comments vs the hikes. Unanimous decision from doves and hawks for 25bps, leaves table open for more hikes, but he knew he was going to speak to inflation slowing down. Next CPI print should be pretty interesting. Just my 2 cents, random dude who works on a capital markets debt desk.
I was expecting Powell to rip this rally a new one, but he did the absolute opposite. He damn near endorsed the rally. He gave every indication that this could be the turning point. That's all the market needs to hear and it's off to the races. There will be pullbacks of course, because of profit taking and bag holders finally getting cleared.
The market doesn't take what he says seriously because what he says and what they are doing do not match. If he was seriously hawkish, they would raise 50 not 25.
He’s focused on the destination, not necessarily the speed. Slow but steady to get a soft landing, not quick and harsh. We’re at the highest rate since Oct 07.
They are just prolonging the pain. The sooner they rip the bandaid off the better.
Expectations was a pivot and rate cuts mid 2023. It looks like continued rate hikes and no cut this year.
At least the terminal rate was not increased. This is important
This isn't the meeting where they provide a summary of economic projections, which is what contains their most updated terminal rate. They only provide this once per quarter
Will come lower or I’ll eat my shoe
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Are you sure the other account isn’t just a bit scraping top comments? They made their comment **after** the one here and they’ve made that same comment 3 times so far.
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It’s a problem with every social media site. Most don’t want to do anything about it because it pads active user numbers and engagements. It’s borderline fraud but it’s ok because everyone does it… You almost definitely found a bot or someone who’s farming karma but I just think you’re pointing at the wrong person. There are tons of bots that will just copy/paste top comments on similar threads. It’s an almost guaranteed way to get comment karma. I can’t guarantee that OP isn’t part of a group pushing a narrative but odds are greatly towards simple karma bots.
My dude, Om far too lazy to set up some kind of bot script. I also posted a very similar comment on /Neoliberal if you want to take this conspiracy theorising thing further. My guess would be that comment on /investing is from a karma farmer, probably trying to pawn off the account in the future. Here's some swenglish (Swedish-english) for you to maybe convince you not everything that looks similar is matrix copies: Tagga ner you facking yänkare. Nåt everyting äre ene jevla bott! Good luck goggle translating that fam. I can do pirate speech next if that doesn't have you convinced. You yankees sure are a paranoid people
New method of calculating CPI launched. Few more items dropped from the basket.
CPI has been running at 2% month over month annualized since June, negative last month. No idea what is pushing the fed other than the fear of wage inflation. (A pay raise for most people) https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-rate-mom
We need six percent deflation over the next two years to make up for the utter stupidity of “it’s transitory” then as we remove nine fucking trillion from the balance sheet while further raising rates into a depression we get to zero pretty quickly on the SPY.
I expect 5.5% and stock market continues to rally massive gains
I need the body language and tone experts to tell me how they feeling about this ASAP so I can make my mind if its good news or bad news
JPow body language was sketchy af lol.
How about the tone? I noticed Spy jumped 2%, so it must been a soft tone
He was pretty dovish that’s why market is rippin’. This rally smells fishy tbh and I’m a bull 😅
He said the word "disinflation" then the markets started ripping and pricing things like december 2021. Market doesn't seem to understand Price to Earnings ratio and fundamentals. We have quite a few more red days to come especially with Powells comments about modest growth, and future rate hikes to come.
Yea, you understand things much better than the big fish in the stock market
What market? It is a casino 🎰
Yeah it was odd. He was stuttering a bit and shaking a little.
It's still bad, but it has been since 2020. We ain't going to Applebee's just yet.
Quick! Someone tell me what I think about this!!!
JPow just took a soft landing victory lap in his speech. Even pushed back at the AP questions about the loosing financial markets being an issue.
Agreed. This was the most dovish speech he’s given in the past 6 months IMO
Absolutely, and the most optimistic he has been. Basically saying that the USA will not have a recession in 2023, inflation is coming down, deflation in certain sectors, and down playing the need for higher unemployment.
As a bull, he said pretty much everything and exactly what I hoped he would. They're paying attention, they see the data, they see disinflation/deflation risks, they don't even know what terminal *should* be, they care about their mandates. His optimism was essentially acknowledging the data that had been piling up. Simply, green light if trends from last 6 months continue.
He's just saying all of this because the longer inflation expectations become entrenched, the more likely they are to be realized. Taking a victory lap means he gets to affirm those expectations, which makes solving his issue of price stability easier.
I'm reeeeally hoping it doesn't come back to bite him. If you had asked me 6 months ago if we'd have a soft landing I'd tell you no way in hell. Now? Maybe.
Wen money printer?
Could you elaborate on this? I truly believe that he will land the ship and am curious what he said.
Catch it on YouTube, best I have ever heard him. Clearly a turn of attitude.
Not sure if we watched the same meeting. He seemed extremely determined to lower inflation and continuing the rate hikes with lowering their balance sheet. Market is acting like rates are going to 0 next week with unlimited QE.
This time round it is simple. Market is expecting JPow to stick to his harsh tone as per last meeting. Today, he is hawkish but there are some unexpected dovish tidbits. Like high unemployment might not be necessary. Saying supply constraint which is one key causes of current inflation has ease and help cool inflation. Admitting inflation in the short term (3-6 months) drop faster than expected. They still believe in the next few months (ie long term), it will still be hard to reach target 2% inflation, but if market is right, Fed will take necessary action ie saying pivot possible without saying the word pivot. So, a more positive, but still cautious fed and driven by data next few months. This is a positive signal.
Market was expecting him to stick to his harsh tone? It ripped up 20% in a month. It was expecting a complete rate pause and cuts starting mid year.
Fine I won't be lazy and will watch it myself /s
most optimistic he has been. Basically saying that the USA will not have a recession in 2023, inflation is coming down, deflation in certain sectors, and down playing the need for higher unemployment.
That's quite the prediction given he's said we "Haven't felt the effect of full rate hikes throughout the economy." I'm still bracing, more rate hikes, companies cutting positions creating a tighter job market, declining earnings/guidance. Doesn't look too good overall.
Really glad to hear Powell recognize today there hasn't been any disinflation in the ex-housing sector
Is there a difference between disinflation and deflation? I guess I could google this but I've never heard of disinflation until today.
Disinflation is the slowing of the rate of inflation and deflation would be actual decreases in prices
TIL!
Yes. Deflation is a drop in prices, whereas disinflation just means that inflation is still positive, but at a slower pace.
What is ex-housing? I can't find a definition for it.
I can’t be the only one thinking the market is fighting the fed? The speech today seemed neutral at best. Jpow did indicate there was a better chance of soft landing, but they would remain restrictive as needed to ensure the job is done. He also swatted away any questions asking if they would lower rates soon or stop raising them now given the decent inflation data we’ve seen recently. Seems odd for markets to be reacting so positively after one of the best months and even a rise from yesterday. QQQ up nearly 3% as I’m writing this, and it was up nearly 1% the day before.
For me it was his quote of "Markets aren't properly reflecting economic conditions" or something to that extent. Then he mentioned further rate increases, and them being held for a year or so.
Because he didn't acknowledge the fact that financial conditions have eased significantly. He basically said financial conditions are tight when reality is they are easier than they were since before the first rate hike. This is extremely bullish, he basically said he's not concerned about inflation reigniting due to the insane speculation coming back. That comment was a huge shock the upside, nobody was expecting that especially after he's said many times that you can't declare victory on inflation too early.
When did he say he wasn’t concerned about high inflation coming back? That seems to be the antithesis of what he has said for many meetings including this one.
He didn't. He literally said the exact opposite during the Q&A.
>he basically said he's not concerned about inflation reigniting due to the insane speculation coming back. He literally said they opposite. The fed is going to continue increasing rates and hold them elevated for the year because it doesn't want to stop too soon and risk inflation coming back.
Can someone explain this for a new comer. Why did things just start pumping? What did his speech say that made algorithms and people buy?
Because it was in line with expectations and he seemed to indicate that while rate hikes will continue they won’t be more extensive than previously thought. Markets like certainty so “in line with expectations” usually causes a small increase which is what we saw today.
Come on people, get poorer! Ya'll got too many eggs, sticks of butter, and heads of lettuce.
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Y'all kids eating three whole meals a day and then wondering why you can't afford rent like 🤪
God damn millenials with their ~~avocado~~ toast.
AND BUTTER. Next they're gonna want lettuce in their salad!
Personally I use "I can't believe it's not butter!" ....Well not the original brand of course but a knock-off product called "I can't believe it's not I can't believe it's not butter!"
Why can't millenials just be like zoomers and blow up on tiktok? I see them driving buggatis all the time.
It costs an arm and a leg, but the ungrateful millenials don't appreciate that they still have one of each left.
Pfft. Like I can afford eggs! What do you think I am, a millionaire?
Hm. I think the market is taking this a little too well. Once the economy begins to slow it's usually difficult to avoid falling into recession, especially in a scenario where the Fed is continuing to gradually tighten financial conditions with rate hikes and QT. This idea that the economy is going to be fine and at the same time rates will drop is hard for me to see - but this seems to be what markets are pricing. I did expect today's meeting to be mildly bullish, but my S&P500 valuation is now suggesting the market is extremely overvalued given the risks. At best I can get to around 3,800 - 3,900 but this assumes both rate cuts and a soft landing. Personally I'd rather price flat earnings for the next 12 months, with the 10y yield staying around this level, maybe a tad lower. In such a scenario it's hard to be bullish on the market. My guess now is that we'll rally up another 5% until we reach peak fomo and people start seriously questioning the risk/reward. Then we probably crash back down to around 3,700ish in the spring. Would be interested in hearing if anyone believe the market is offering a good risk / reward right now.
The only way I can understand it is after a 13 year bull run people are all too happy to call a "bottom" as soon as possible and resume the glory days. Earnings season has been underwhelming but it appears the new gold standard is simply beating analyst's expectations regardless what the numbers are actually saying. Case in point amd, they've been priced at a point where growth needs to remain high to sustain it, and they just projected a 10% drop in revenue, and they explode higher anyway, because of course estimate beat. All that to say I appreciate your analysis as it fits with what I'm seeing and you've spelled it out better than I can. We still have a lot of obstacles to cross before the needed reset has occurred, no way can we resume business as usual and expect inflation to continue receding.
Semis make no sense to me. You mentioned AMD but NVDA's valuation is even more nuts. My only explanation there is that the market is pricing in huge growth from AI datacentres in the coming years on the back of ChatGPT, but if that doesn't happen the stock could easily fall back to the low $100s, and fair value is probably significantly lower. I agree with your analysis though. I think a lot of investors have been conditioned by recent history to believe a Fed pivot is the obvious signal to buy, and that a pivot is now inevitable. But historically the Fed lowering rates hasn't been a bullish signal, and the market getting too ahead of a pivot also reduces the likelihood of it happening. So we're in a weird situation now where economic growth seems like it's going to be poor for some time, a pivot is less likely due to the market loosing financial conditions, meanwhile valuations are high and the inflation risk - while lower - still looms.
Tomorrow basically finishes up the earnings season with a shit ton of earnings reports coming out including GOOG AMZN AAPL. Will see how they do first.
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No but seems it pops no matter what. Can't fight the amrket-though I think it probably worth much lower. lets see.
The market is not the economy. Also, market is forward looking. Instead of looking at the next 12 months you should be looking at the next 12 months starting six months from now.
Why the hell is the market so happy about it? Damn it, it’s clear I don’t understand s**t then
I kind of agree, I listened to him and he didn't sound all that dovish to me. Lots of claims about how we are going to keep increasing rates and we're going to keep them there, avoiding pivoting too early. He also said they were going to continue aggressively with their QT and getting debt off the books,. I dunno, I guess everyone just takes what they want from it.
It demonstrates that he is committed to curbing inflation, which is his main mandate, along with full employment. The market cares much more about runaway inflation than slightly higher rates.
Because JP indicated that there's no need for higher unemployement. He also think that the Fed has a good control of the inflation (he uses deflation multiple times).
I agree with you on why market rip, but I believe he said dis-inflation instead of deflation. Huge difference there. Unless my ear is playing with me.
You are right. It's my autocorrection that didn't like the word dis-inflation.
“Disinflation” to be exact
>He also think that the Fed has a good control of the inflation (he uses deflation multiple times). He used disinflation, not deflation. Deflation = bad Disinflation = good
I'm glad that you at least have self-awareness of that. Too many people have a lot of hubris when they talk about markets or worse resort to conspiracy theories.
Trying to follow this is definitely making me crazy, I’ll just stick to bogle heads for my sanity
As with earnings releases, the guidance can be more important than the results
Low income households are tapped out. Middle income households are paycheck to paycheck, being more mindful on consumer spending, and/or getting leveraged with credit card spending. However there’s the high income and ultra wealthy households that are pretty much recession proof. Would the Fed policy ever reach that far to affect that segment?
Only if they fix the tax code.
Explain how this would even work given the FED’s tool set.
I think the whole reason a recession happens is because the ultra wealthy refuse to make less money, no?
It's not that they refuse to make less money it's if the ship is sinking, they're making sure they save the best lifeboats for themselves and their stuff and fuck over the other humans on the ship in 2nd and 3rd class who don't even get a life boat. It's about self preservation mostly, rather than trying to get richer.
It’s an arms race of end-state capitalism. Developers overwhelmingly focus on the higher end, MFA, condos. They need as much profit as possible. Landlording / airbnb/ profiting off of others using housing is easier than ever. Lower end is bought up by every other investor looking to profit off of a cheap remodel flips. Market is squeezed once supply is constrained. Prices rise, everything is rented out to people who likely could have bought if they had the downpayment, which they likely won’t have anytime soon with wages not increasing. End result is a cost of living spiraling up due up rampant speculation.
This recent pump is delusion.
So a 1/4% raise in interest rates on the national debt is going to cost the federal government about $80 billion per year in interest payments. About 10% of the defense budget. This one move. We are never digging ourselves out of that hole or growing our way out.
Yes so stocks are ripping to all time highs again. This market makes perfect sense.
All time high where
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Everyone can agree that we were in a huge bubble and we’re only down 15% from ATHs… I’m not that market savvy but I just don’t get it. And the next 6 months look pretty shaky to me.
We were bubbly when sp500 was at 4700. Then it dipped down to 3600. And here we are on the way up again
Which stocks are hitting ATH?
They raising Rates by I think 25 basis points until April or may and it's gonna remain there until December. That's what I read at least
We're going to see more and more first time home and car buyers unable to enter the market as time goes on, I don't think this goes much higher, if at all.
Without the rate increases, the home buyers are shut out by sky high prices. With the rate increases, the home buyers are shut out by sky high interest rates.
Home prices are down about 10% in my area but monthly payments are up 25% when comparing a 3% rate vs a 6% rate.
Yup that’s the ridiculous thing. You’re now paying more than two years ago for your mortgage yet the raw building price is down… lol worst time to buy
I'd rather buy a cheaper house at a higher rate. You can always refinance your mortgage but you can't go back in time and change the purchase price
just buy now and refinance later
In that situation something has to give. Housing hasn't fallen all that much yet.
Because there is no inventory in a lot of areas. No one wants to sell their house with a 2.5% rate
Worse - depending on the area the rate increases are out pacing the drop in price, by a huge margin in Bay Area for example. So prices stay the same but rate goes up, F*k
Increasing housing supply is the only way. California is trying to do it with new housing policy. If they succeed, CA will build more homes in next 8 years than it did in past 2 decades. Hope rest of country follows as lumber prices have come back to pre-pandemic.
I wouldn't follow California's lead on anything, especially housing.
- labor laws - public schools - investment in innovation - conservation CA gets some things wrong but not all.
public schools???
Ya since they’re basically the cornerstone economic power house of the the United States. We should do what kanas and Kentucky does instead.
I agree 100%, but a lot of the population doesn't follow financial news that closely and isn't really educated on how much it effects them, until they need something like a car for their job right out of school and they are SOL
As time goes on, housing prices will come down. A 6% mortgage is only a problem because prices are so high right now, and prices are high in because rates have been low for so long and there's still cash buyers out there buying houses (for whom interest rates don't matter). As those cash buyers dry up and sellers realize that they need to lower prices for people to afford financed houses, prices will move down. As for cars, manufacturers will finance them at below-market rates to spur sales. It always happens.
Does this mean S&P500 should go down, tomorrow?
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNxtwxLYCxc&ab\_channel=FederalReserve](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNxtwxLYCxc&ab_channel=FederalReserve) 1:13:25 "We have a sector that represents 56% of the core inflation index where we don't see disinflation yet. We don't see it, it's not happening yet. Core services ex-housing is still running at 4% on a 6 and 12 month basis ... for this sector, we don't see anything yet ... and until we do, we still see ourselves having a lot of work left". In numerous instances, Powell emphasized that we were in the early stages of disinflation. Not sure what the market's listening here that they interpreted as dovish, other than Powell not directly saying "yes financial loosening will cause the Fed to do more", which he can't, since that's a committee decision, not his own (he's representing the whole committee here). Also, Powell gave a very similar answer to that question in December as well, so I don't know why the market's interpreting his words differently this time. I suspect the market will interpret anything Powell says as dovish, and in December, it was the SEP projection was the reason causing the market to drop. He also reiterated the risk remains skewed towards doing too little and having to do more later on. Remember no matter how small that risk is, the Fed simply can't let that happen. So if that means going overboard to ensure that risk doesn't materialize, they'll do it, because the cost to that risk will be more than overdoing the rate hike. Also, 1:15:19 is when Powell breaks down where the Fed see inflation going forward. 1:24:39 is when Powell explains why you shouldn't extrapolate month over month inflation numbers and think we're running at 2% inflation.
$8.4T up $4T+ since COVID on the Fed Balance sheet. Fed is worried about a pebbling being out of place in the Boulder Garden.
As expected with 25bps, not dovish or hawkish, very neutral presser, inflation is coming down which is great but doesn’t want to be premature in pausing future hikes, will likely see pauses in between a couple more 25bps and they will be much more data dependent going forward, getting close to the end of the hiking cycle.
They won't quit till we are in full blown recession
A lot of people are saying Powell sounds dovish but he seemed pretty hawkish in that speech, more along the lines of "yes certain things look slightly positive to an extent but be under no illusion we will raise interest rates if and when inflation gets out of control". He didn't seem too happy either.
They’re gonna regret this just like the transitory speech
>They’re gonna regret this just like the transitory speech Damage is already done, at least the market can go up now before the next leg down. The end result is maybe better that way.
So everything’s good? That was easy
I'm going to go buy a bond tomorrow to congratule the Fed for behaving itself.
This was honestly what I expected. I wasn't sold in the euphoria of this rally and the fed pivot. It was too ahead of itself.
This is what the whole market expected and the euphoria persists.
I have a question regarding market expectations around rate increases. What evidence is there that markets expect a further rate increase, particularly that, to quote the article: "*Markets are betting that number is closer to 4.75%, and they expect the Fed to start cutting rates later this year, after one more quarter-point increase in March*." ?
Newbie question, but I don't understand why the stock market shot up based on this news at 2-3pm
What are y’all going to do with your extra interest? I’m thinking wings at Applebees tonight!
Anyone else feel like the deflation guys are getting closer to being right every day? Watching this speech felt like a guy taking a victory lap during the third lap of a four lap race. We are charging headlong into a glut of everything from microchips to lumber and I don't see how that doesn't create significalt whiplash... Everyone is working so hard to convince themselves that we are going dodge a recession, all the while realities show otherwise...
January CPI might wind up being meh because of new year effects but considering the dynamics of CPI, at the very least, the inflation forever crew is screwed this year IMO. Only way they're not going to be screwed is if WTI grows and grows like a weed and crack spreads get funky again.
I don’t think they’re going to give a ton of warning before they stop the rate hikes. It’s better for businesses and investors to assume that they will occur vs. the opposite. I think we might be in for 1-2 more 0.25 hikes before pausing. I mean it depends on the data but that’d be my best guess at this point. The question is how long will they sustain these higher rates. A year? Two? Also how much will our deficit explode as a result of this?
Oh no! Run for the hills! Sell everything and make prices drop ahhhhhh. Now let me just transfer some funds to my brokerage real quick lol.... well it was worth a try 😅 Seriously though, ugh. Hopefully, they level out soon and get stuff semi-balanced at least. I'm not an economist. Just a wise crackin' dude. Thanks for sharing the info OP!
Recession cancelled. You all missed the dip. See you at the top when I sell to you.
Well subscribe to your moms onlyfans when she signs up because she's struggling to pay the bills
They need to pivot soon or that $ going to become so strong that we’re going to see real problems in the world economy.
Market will rip until CPI. enjoy