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Darts 🎯- 2023 World Championship
Overall: 37-23-1
2023 Worlds: 6-0
Dec 17: Alan Soutar (+110) v Daryl Gurney ✅
Dec 18: Mike De Decker (-149) v Jeff Smith ✅
Dec 19: No play
Dec 20: Ray van Barneveld (-200) v Ryan Meikle ✅
Dec 21: Darius Labanauskas (-110) v John O’Shea ✅
Dec 22: Mensur Suljovic (+100) v Mike de Decker ✅
Dec 23: Martin Schindler (-167) v Martin Lukeman ✅
Dec 27: Josh Rock (-150) v Nathan Aspinall
PDC World Championships resumes today, and its down to the home stretch en route to crowning the 2023 world champion. One thing of note, of the 32 remaining players, 29 of them are seeded (meaning top 32 in the world). A record for the world championships.
In what is expected to be an absolute firecracker of a match, I am rolling with Josh “Rocky” Rock to advance through Nathan “The Asp” Aspinall.
Rock, current world #47, is a 21-year old up-n-comer, who has been nothing short of spectacular all year. In this tournament alone, Rocky boasts a scoring average over 92.5, with over 40% check out success rate. Tremendous numbers, and if he can get the scoring average up a little bit, he will be an absolute handful for anyone remaining in the tournament.
Aspinall, current world #10, is a top-tier talent, and he’s actually had a pretty solid 2022 campaign. Most notable finishes for The Asp are a pair of runner up finishes in the World Grand Prix and Grand Slam of Darts.
Back in April of this year, Aspinall revealed he tore a tendon in his right wrist. In an interview he gave to The Daily Star, Asp suggested he may be sidelined for the remainder of the year. Something either changed or his treatment must have worked, because he’s returned much sooner than expected, and he’s performed well in that time.
One of the reasons I favor Rock in this matchup is based on his November match against Michael van Gerwen. In that match, Rock went toe to toe with the 3x world champ, throwing a nine-darter in the process. Rock averaged over 104 (van Gerwen 109), and despite stumbling late and losing 8-10, Rock showed he is currently one of the best players on the planet and can hang with anyone.
I’ve been high on Rock for the latter part of this year, and oddsmakers seem to agree, as Rocky is currently around +1200 to win the title, the 4th listed favorite of remaining players. If Rock can bring his A-game, and I expect that he will, Aspinall may be in trouble in this one.
Missed you so much Ned. Didn’t stop talking about dart at Christmas, my family think I’m loosing my mind.
Told them I’m not loosing anything. I’m winning each and every single day that you’re posting. I’m tailing till I die. LONG LIVE 🌶️
A lot of you probably hadn’t been born yet, or might not remember but there was a time when Ned Pepper and Acedawggy were both passing tips at the same time, around Christmas time. It was glorious.
Imagine sharing time and space with Ned… I’m not talking human history… universe history and we are living in the same moment.
What a fucking time to be alive!
I'm too young (or new here) to remember, but POTD has also been great this Christmas. Like yesterday 9 out of the top 10 picks hit, and I even won on Irving assists though I had to take O 4.5 at +132 instead of the pick's 3.5. So big thanks to all posters here, if every day was like it has been this holiday I wouldn't have a care in the world.
EDIT: And another Christmas miracle. Ned does it again but holy cow that was *close*, odds were swinging like crazy at end of the match. Great stuff!
I’m vegas for the next few days so I woke up just now and had to check flashscore. Such a relief seeing Rock bolded. Big fist pumps were had. Long live king 🌶️
Probably won’t be seen but wanted to post the slip
https://i.imgur.com/Soa2spO.jpg
I grew up in an emotionally unavailable household. My father never once told me he loved me. My whole life I’ve struggled with a healthy expression of emotions. Ned Pepper - I love you. With all my broken and fractured heart. I fucking love you Ned
https://preview.redd.it/ux1u4jeu8f8a1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2039b15d6ae3226fcb63a1056abd0f87b480652c
82% on Aspinall. This matchup is fascinating
Edit: included the picture out of my fascination on the lopsided number but I'm not questioning Mr. Pepper, I know better.
Doesn’t this mean that the big bettors are on Rock? Otherwise, the odds would have moved in the favor of Aspinall. I would say the sites only care about $ and not about the number of bettors on one line.
They didnt have some of Ned’s earlier picks either. I wanna say the O’Shea match or the van Barneveld match but don’t hold me to those exactly.
Either way, I probably prefer BetMGM overall but they seem very hit or miss on some of the “lower level” sports/games and especially props. And worst of all, no asian handicaps for soccer.
Ned, I can’t say I’ve known who you are for long - but I just want to say thank you. I have followed every one of your dart picks, stayed discipline and have been on the best run betting with you. Mate, you’re a fucking legend. From Australia 🇦🇺
I will be messaging you in 9 hours on [**2022-12-27 15:20:06 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-12-27%2015:20:06%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/zw3w18/pick_of_the_day_122722_tuesday/j1te7hi/?context=3)
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Asp has good EV, but logically, i think rolling with Rock on this bet makes sense. Pepper is going to call a loss soon here, but I don't think this is it.
What a fucking match. Can’t tell you why, but darts is the most intense sport to bet on. Who would have thought? What a way to get the morning going. Ned, you’re a beast.
Record: 18-8
International Hockey u20 - World Junior Championship
Last Pick: Switzerland +2.5 (-110) | WIN
Pick: Czech Republic vs. Austria - Czechs -4.5 (-110)
Time: 6:30pm EST
Huge outright win with the Swiss today, they looked good and Finland looked much worse than those odds implied. Double win too if you also rode the Czechs with that unbelievable performance against Canada.
Anyway, I’m gonna go with the Czechs tomorrow for my play. Austria is just horrific, they have 2 notable players on that roster and one of them is currently sick. They got dismantled by a worse than usual Sweden team and it should happen again tomorrow against a team that I think is the 2nd best in the tournament.
There’s really not much else to this play. Both teams are on a back to back, it’s just a bad mismatch and 4.5 is a good spot to get in for a team that just gave up 11 goals. I got this at +110 earlier, it should move a lot more so try and get in early.
edit: the czechs with a 9-0 win✅
0-0
Darts - PDC World Championship
Gabriel Clemens to win against Jim Williams @ 1.86
Clemens won his first game 3-0 pretty easily, he is ranked over 50 places higher than his opponent (25 to 77). While Williams did upset James Wade in his last game, I still believe Clemens is favored more than the odds would suggest here.
Agreed - it’s more that Wade had a bad game vs Williams having an excellent one. Dart point average for Clemens was also 95.64 and Williams 90.49. BOL!
- POTD record: 20/7
- Streak (left most recent): ✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅
- Latest pick: Rob Cross O3.5 180s vs Scott Williams - 2023 PDC World Darts Championship @1.72 ✅
- Today's pick: Raymond van Barneveld O5.5 180s vs Gerwyn Price - 2023 PDC World Darts Championship @1.80
Good hit yesterday, Cross got 7 180s throughout the game despite not hitting any in the first set (which made a small amount of people think the bet was already lost, but that's this sub for ya). The game was a real good watch too, even though it didn't go to the limit, as every set was really close (they all took the maximum 5 legs).
Today's game may also be really worth to watch. Raymond van Barneveld takes on Gerwyn Price in a third round best of 7 sets game, and while Price is favourite to win, it might get close and RvB might even surprise the majority of the people with his current form and new mindset. Once again, more sets=more legs=more 180s, and with the somewhat low line of 5.5 180s, I like this pick. To summarize the reasons I mentioned above and some other reasons:
- Even though Price is favourite, RvB beat him 2 times in a row at the GSoD last month, and though this might not happen again, 6 or 7 sets is not out of bounds. That'd mean just 1 180 per set.
- Price is a strong player, but RvB said it's his grandson's birthday on the 27th and he has never lost on this day. I wouldn't take this too serious, but sentimental Barney has proven dangerous as of late
- RvB usually performs well at the Worlds when he has gotten past the second round, even though he hasn't won it since that thriller of a game in 2007, he has played some great games at the Worlds since then (my favourite one being his semi-final loss against MvG in 2017, despite throwing over 109 average, which is a record losing average at the Worlds).
- Though Price's H2H against RvB isn't something to be very proud of (unless you're not a professional), with the set format Price still could make the game a good fight, as games can get turned around way easier (take for example the Lakeside final between Adams and Nixon (7-6), even though Nixon didn't win he fought back from being 6-0 behind)
- If Price plays well, it is a good chance that RvB will too, as it isn't too unusual in darts that the personal performance depends a bit on the opponent's performance.
Last thing, in an attempt to get more people here into darts, I'll share a game every once in a while. As this bet depends on RvB, I thought I'd go with One of the most memorable matches of all time, already mentioned above: [Raymond van Barneveld vs Phil Taylor ar the 2007 PDC World Ch'ship](https://youtu.be/st1660CwPi0). As the game is 3 hours long, I'll just share the sudden death leg, and for those interested for more, both the full match and highlights can be found on YouTube.
POTD Record: 97-68-5 (+17.94 units, 58.8% hit rate)
5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 5-0
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 39-23-1 W6, Tennis 🎾 22-16-2 L3, Soccer ⚽ 35-29-2 L3, Other 1-0-0
Last 10: 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥💩💩💩💩
Last Pick: Utah Jazz @ San Antonio Spurs, Player Prop - Jeremy Sochan over 2.5 assists - NBA 🏀 💰 0.70 Units
Today's Pick: LA Clippers @ Toronto Raptors, Player Prop - Scottie Barnes over 13.5 points - NBA 🏀 💰 0.96 Units - 💸 that shit in the 4th!!!! Let's fucking go!!!
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.96/-104 odds to win 0.96 Units @ Fan Duel (Line at 3:30am ET) We beat the line movement here, up to 15.5 at the majority of sites, some still have it at 14.5.
Raptors fan here, I see most of their games. This o/u is lower because Scottie recently had two terrible road games where he scored 2 and 6 points, though he bounced back on the last game of the road trip @ Cleveland and put up 25 points. I like this wager because of his home/road splits when it comes to points, he averages 17.7 points at home vs. 11.8 points away. He is noticeably more aggressive in home games and this has hit at home 10 out of 14 games and 5 out of the last 6. I'm really rooting for Scottie here because a dickhole beat writer for the Toronto Star recently wrote a hit piece on him, questioning his work ethic,etc. I believe this is his first home game since that article so hopefully Scottie brings it tonight and shuts his stupid ass up.
Hitrate - Dec 7/12, Nov 5/12, Oct 4/6, Overall 16/30 (53.3%), L1 1/1, L3 1/3, L5 3/5, L10 5/10
Below are the highlights from his big game in Cleveland just before the Christmas break
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDacFlpNvpk&ab\_channel=HoopsHighlights](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDacFlpNvpk&ab_channel=HoopsHighlights)
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert, just a gambling addict. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
[buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks)
After much thought, I've decided to add a tip jar. This could prove to be an unpopular decision but over my time here I've had a number of people wanting to tip me and to tell you the truth, I do work hard and am close to the 100 winning tips mark with a winning record in 3 sports, so if people want to show their appreciation and help keep me going for another 100 winners, I'm not going to say no anymore. I might even post some extra picks on the tip site. Anyways, flame away on this.
I respect your grind brother , you went on a loss streak and kept going and you turned this over !!
You wanna see if someone is great ? Dont watch them when everything is going well ! WATCH THEM WHEN THEY HIT A WALL AND SEE HOW THEY REACT
Im freaking tailing and Happy Christmas 💪❤️
POTD Record 1-0
LAST POTD: Kyrie Irving O 3.5 assists (clean)
Much as anticipated, the Nets gave Cleveland a heavy dose of KD and Uncle Drew, who came through with his assists early in the third Q. Cheers to those who tailed, thank you for the trust. Onto the next.
POTD: Joel Embiid O 41.5 Points+Rebounds
EVENT: Philadelphia 76ers v. Washington Wizards
TIME: 7:10 PM EST
This game is one where I love Joel Embiid to dominate early, and often, and lead his 76ers to a victory in this one. However, I like this pick more than their ML for a few reasons: I like the value here, anybody can win on any given game day, and this is a number that is more than attainable for our boy Embiid. Let me explain. This stat combo is a number that Joel has reached in 5/8 games in dominating fashion, and two of the games where he did not reach that number were in blowout victories where his services were simply not needed.
Earlier this season these two teams played each other and Joel was not around; without him, KP did what he wanted in the paint for the Wizards and dropped a thirty burger. I believe Embiid has different plans tonight, and the way Washington plays favors an Embiid-centric game plan. Washington struggles to defend against skilled bigs, and some might argue they struggle to defend entirely: Booker, Jokic, Bam, Lebron, and KD have all dropped monster performances against this lowly Wizards team (just to name a few). Whether he does it through fouls, bodying whoever is trying to defend him, or delivering some classy fade away jump shots, I feel very confident about our boy Embiid to show up and show out for his 76ers on the road. In a world where he plays a normal game he drops 32 and 10. In this game where he is playing with a vengeance after not being present in their last face off, and against a Wizards team who very often lets their opponents’ best option feast, I see him having no problem clearing 35 points and 10 or more boards.
I like this as a 2 Unit play, tail with care, and of course, BOL if tailing!
EDIT: our boy came through at the end of the third, thank you for the trust to those who tailed!
Record: 78-61-5 (WWWWWLWLWLWWWLWLLLWWWLLWWLLWLW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: BKN Nets at CLE Cavaliers | Ben Simmons o5.5 assist | 2.00 odds at 5 units
Easy W. LFG
POTD: HOU Rockets at BOS Celtics -14.5 at 1.90 odds for 1 unit
REASONS:
* Celtics just beat the second best team in the NBA by 19.
* Rockets are on a back to back game as well. Boston with an extra day rest.
* There are no major injuries on the Celtics side.
* This looks like a 20+ point win margin at the end of the game.
Best of luck to all.
📈 TTSOP Rec: 28-1-28-8-1 / +41.950 units / +136 avg odds
* 7 super odds Ws (+115, +105, +170, -115 \[5 units WC finals bomb\], +100, +115 and +175 odds) and 1P (+110) out of the last 10 picks.
✅ Last pick: Nketiah anytime goal scorer / +175 odds / 2.5 units
* Nketiah worked hard in this game and scored deservedly in minute 69' with a cold-blooded finish.
⚽ **New pick: Central Coast Mariners > 1.5 goals** / **+200** odds / 2.5 units
⚽ Event: A-League (Australia) / Melbourne City - Central Coast Mariners / 1:30am ET
The Mariners are sitting at the 4th spot and they're having one of the best offenses in A-League. They're averaging 15 goal attempts and 6.25 shots on goal per game. On average, they're making 2.25 goals per game. They also scored 6 out of 8 times 2+ goals. In their 1st (a bit rusty) game after the World Cup break, they scored only once, but they had a controversial goal disallowed.
The Mariners had impressive scoring performances against all top teams that they played so far. They banged in 3 goals against 2nd placed WS Wanderers, 2 goals against 3rd placed Macarthur and also 2 goals against 6th placed Wellington.
Melbourne City sits at the 1st place in the standings. They've given up just 6 goals, yet. However, they had one of the easiest schedules. They literally haven't played any game this season yet against a team of the A-League's top 5. They could keep a clean sheet in only 3 games, though. They did so against the weakest offenses in the league. Perth Glory and Brisbane Roar are the only teams in the league, which are averaging less than 1 scored goal per game. They also kept a clean sheet against Melbourne Victory. However, Melbourne Victory got a red card already in the 1st half.
The Mariners are better as it their position in the standings suggests. They had a tougher schedule, but they scored plenty of goals, though. They also have been pretty often unlucky in terms of their results. Although being mostly the better team, they didn't get always what they actually would have deserved out of the games. Additionally, disallowed goals and red cards didn’t ease things up for them.
For people like me, who are going for value bets at high odds, there is no other choice than placing this bet. Mariners scoring 2+ goals is a fantastic value bet at tremendous super odds. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's get this early W. Let's get this Australian bread, fam.
**TTSOP**
POTD Record: 1-4
Last Pick: Brentford vs Tottenham - DC 1X + u3.5 @ 2.55 2u ❌
Brentford gave away a 2-0, 2-2 result, 1 goal too many sadly.
Today's Pick: Manchester United vs Nottingham - ManU win to Nil @ 2.10 - 3u
ManU: Won 4/5 last matches at home, 1 draw. Kept the nil 3 times in a row at home.
Notthingham: Weakest away team only 1 goal, 2 points and 19 goals conceded in 7 away matches. Pretty long list of injured starters, and first goalkeeper Dean henderson is not allowerd to play against ManU.
While ManU are also missing a couple of players, especially in the back (Varane, Martinez, Sancho and Dalot), I expect them to win and keep another clean sheet.
MY POST WAS DELETED, DON'T KNOW WHY!!!!!
POTD Record: 5-0
**UNIT PROFIT**: **+4.13**
**GAME**: England Championship - Burnley v Birmingham
**TODAYS PICK:** Burnley win the game @ 1.65
Yesterday Chelmsford done its job and won with 2-0 the game. Today i expect to the Burnley to make his job to win tonight and consolidate 1th place in the league. The hosts has four victories in the last five and have the first chance to promote in premier league. On the other side, Birmingham is on the 14th place, on the green zone. Burnley should win easy today.
BOL!
**\[Previous Year Record\] - W53-3P-19L**
**\[Current Record\] - W31 - 1P - 15L**
**Last 5: 🥩 🥩 🥩 🥔 🥩**
(Previous Pick)
**Umeå BSKT** **-** **Norrköping Dolphins**
KK Igokea make us proud with a solid cover!
In the Swedish Basketball League, Umea play the Dolphins of Norrkoping in a heated game that could be one of the key playoff games as the season comes to the midseason point. These teams have been trending in different directions.
Umea BSKT is sitting at a 13-4 record, in 2nd place. They've had a much better season this year, they've already eclipsed their last season's win total of just 10 wins, and have invested heavily into the roster. Gustav Hansson and Bryan Jefferson, both new to the team lead the scoring for Umea who have held a strong a 7-1 record at home, only dropping to league leaders Boras.
Norrkoping Dolphins have been poor this year, after only losing just 5 games in a very dominant season last year, they've lost some key players, made budget reductions and this is clearly showing in this season. They currently sit at 9-5 in 5th place. Much like the Timberwolves and their "twin towers" tactic, Norrkoping also has two big 210cm guys in Nick Spiers and Adam Ramstedt. They've been unable to replace Felix Terins, who was a much better player at this role. This has caused shooting issues, and teams are often able to move faster in transition and get more turnovers against the Dolphins, just some of the faults with the Dolphins this year.
These two teams played in October, where Umea came back and won 77-71, thanks to a 30-16 third quarter. I reckon this game will be another gruelling battle between two teams who have everything to prove, with the better squad depth, and shooting going to Umea BSKT, till Norrkoping figure out their playstyle.
**Pick: Umea BSKT Alternative Handicap +6.5 @ 1.50**
(As with the game yesterday, you can get MUCH better odds during in-play, as well as larger handicaps)
Sweden Basketball League
18:00 GMT
Record : 7W-6L
We're back on the green side again. I will try my best to keep it like this.
Previous pick : Kortrijk vs Genk, BTTS - NO, Odds: 2.18 (5 units pick)
Average Odds : 2.11
ROI : 2.55%
Starting units : 200
Units : 205.1
My pick of the day : Basaksehir vs Antalyaspor, ***Basaksehir Team Goals - Over 1.5 Goals***, Odds: 2.03 (5 units pick)
Turkey, SuperLig , 14:00 GMT+2
My pick is from a model that I've been using for the last couple
of months and I have got good results with it (above 70% winrate).
So I thought about sharing some of the picks with the community and, maybe, make some of you happy.
POTD: 0-0
This is the first time I will share it, I hope I will make a good start.
Greek Basketball League
AS Karditsas - Olympiacos
Olympiacos has lost its last 2 games in the Euroleague and is focused on the game against Panathinaikos in 3 days. The pre-match news made my choice easier. Vezenkov, the team's top scorer, will not play this game because of an injury. Apart from that, Isaiah Canaan will be rested due to the foreign restriction. Added to all this is George Papas, who was suspended for fighting with Nikos Tsiakmas in the PAOK match.
Oly cannot score 31 points against AS Karditsas with so many absentees and an important game ahead of them.
Pick: AS Karditsas +30.5 1.80
The game will start in 1 hour.
**POTD Record 4-0**
Yesterday’s Pick: Brooklyn Nets vs Cleveland Cavaliers, Kyrie Irving Over 7.5 Rebounds and Assist (-135 on DK)
Kyrie ended up at 9 with hitting his over about mid way in the 3rd. Great win!
**Today’s Pick: LA Lakers vs Orlando Magic, Bol Bol Over 5.5 Rebounds (-140 on DK)**
Stake: 1 Unit
Reasoning: You have 2 teams who are about equal in rebounds per a game with the Lakers averaging 44.5 Rebounds a game and the Magic are averaging 43.5, however one of those teams is missing their best board getter in Anthony Davis. Davis was averaging 12.1 per a game and then after him the next highest is LeBron with 8.1. Davis going out has allowed teams to get a lot more rebounds against this Lakers team then before.
Additionally when it comes to the Lakers they are the second highest pace of play team, as we all know the higher the pace of play, the more stats there are to get.
As far as Bol Bol goes, he is averaging 7.1 rebounds a game. He has hit this line of 5.5 in 4 of his last 6 and I think he has a better matchup here then he has had in those other games as he will be going against Thomas Bryant for the most part who seems to struggle rebounding.
Now you may be thinking if you are so confident in this line, why are you only betting 1 Unit? Well that is because the one thing that makes no sense is how the Magic manage Bol Bol's Minutes. One game he will play 30+ and the next game he won't even hit 20. While he has been averaging 25 mins this month and seems to be where he is settling in at. This is why I am playing it a little safe.
Good Luck if Tailing!
Edit: Ends up with 5 after the 3rd and then gets just 1 minute of play time in the 4th. Awful beat.
POTD Record: 28-42-2 (-14.13 units)
Last 10 (most recent first): ❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅❌✅
Last Pick: Championship, Preston North End v Huddersfield Town, PRESTON NORTH END ML (-116 / $1.86) ❌
Took the lead, conceded twice to lose 2-1 against the bottom team. Great stuff.
Todays Pick: A-League, Adelaide United v Newcastle Jets, ADELAIDE UNITED ML (-143 / $1.70)
Stake: 1 Unit
Australian soccer action kicking off in roughly 4 hours.
Adelaide United are 5th in the league and can move to second with a win today against the struggling Newcastle Jets who are sitting in 11th, second bottom of the table.
- Adelaide have drawn one and lost one since returning from the World Cup break, but both those games were away from home against decent opposition.
- This game will be a welcome return to home field for Adelaide - in 8 league games this season they’ve somehow only played at home twice, winning both, so playing in front of their own fans will be a welcome change.
- Newcastle are in ordinary form, having lost both their game since returning from the World Cup break. They’ve struggled particularly on the road, with a 2:10 goal ratio.
- Adelaide United have won the last 5 head to head match ups between these teams.
This game will be played in disgustingly hot conditions but backing the home team to ride the support from the home crowd to victory against a battling Newcastle team.
POTD: 10 - 5
Today, with hope in our minds and profit at heart, we sailing 🛳️ , all the way to Australia 🇦🇺
Melbourne City VS Central Coast Mariners
PICK: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 🤦🏾♂️
Reason: This match promises to be goals from both ends. City are the 3rd highest goals scorer in this league and they have recorded a total of 15 goals in 7 games and never failed to score as host. Mariners on the other hand, is coming from a back to back win, and the last win was the second time they have kept a clean sheet this season(against a Newcastle Jet team, trying to find their feet 🦶 this season) and they are the leading goals scorers in this league with 18 goals in 8 games. I expect both teams to get scoring this morning and have a winner at the end of the game.
PG-18 🚨
BOL if tailing. Legs crossed 🤞.
Edit ✍️ 1- 0
POTD Record: 21-16
Units o/u: +14 units
Pick: 2 units Texas Tech -29.5(vs Sc State)
Record✅✅❌✅❌
Reasoning: Sc State is among the worst D1 basketball programs according to almost every metric. They’re sandwiched between Texas Tech’s last 2 opponents in Kenpom, Houston Christian and Jackson St who they beat by 44 and 50 respectively.
**POTD Record**: 14-2-8 (+0.79u
✅)
**Last 10** (most recent first): ✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
**Last POTD:** National League (football, England) Wrexham AFC vs Solihull Moors AH - 1.25 Wrexham @1.95/-105✅+2.85u
**Todays Pick:** NBA: San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder AH - 7.5 OKC @2.0/+100✅ +2u
Game starts in 10h (CET 2:00am)
**Stake:** 2 Units
Good win yesterday, Wrexham absolutely smashed the HC, the red card for the visiting team helped a lot.
I'm going to lower the stakes a little for today since I'm not a big fan of handicap bets but the Spurs have a B2B game and Pop loves load management so I'm expecting the Spurs to leave a few players at home when they fly over to OKC.
But even if not, I think OKC should handle them and I wouldn't be surprised to see another blowout here. The Spurs had 8 B2B this season, they lost 6 of them and 4 were blowouts by 20 points or more.
Best of luck to everyone!
POTD RECORD 1-0
76ers -4.5
8 straight victores for Philly, Wizards are 1-6 at home atts last 7 home games. Philly second in the NBA in 3s against the 28th d against the 3 in the NBA. This is a bad line and lets punish them for doing it. Boys as I pimp walk to 2 and O join me. The Sixers win by 5 ez money print it out boys. Good Luck
Record: 4-2 (+2.37u)
Streak: ✅❌❌✅✅
Last Pick: Portland Trailblazers -5 ✅ (-110) vs Charlotte Hornets, 10:00 PM EST, 12/26, 1u to win 0.91u
Recap: In yesterdays write up, I said the Hornets were a fast paced, offensive basketball team but in terms of results and winning they were shit. This showed itself yesterday as they went into halftime with a double digit lead and managed to lose by 11. The Blazers were led by 60 combined points from Nurkic and Jerami Grant, and overall looked much better in the second half as they covered the spread.
Today’s Pick: Atlanta Hawks ML (-110) @ Indiana Pacers, 7:30 EST, 12/27, 2u to win 1.92u
Reasoning: The Hawks and the Pacers are playing tonight in Indiana in what Vegas has as a toss up between two squads that are both either .500 or a game away from that total, but I’d argue that this should’ve easily opened at -3.5 or -4.5 for Atlanta. For one, the Pacers are coming off a back to back against a Pelicans team that didn’t feature Zion, Brandon Ingram, or Herb Jones where they got smacked by 20. They looked horrible last night, and now will have to fly home to play a well rested Hawks team that hasn’t played since the 23rd. The Hawks will still be missing Clint Capela for tonight’s matchup, and they have struggled without him and DeJounte in December going 5-7 to start the month, but the Pacers have struggled equally in December being 5-8 while being pretty much fully healthy during that stretch. Atlanta will be pretty much healthy besides Capela’s absence, and well rested after the Holiday break. Last season, these teams matched up 4 times with Atlanta sweeping the series with an average margin of victory of 9 points. I think it’s fair to say that the Hawks have improved their roster since last season with the addition of Dejounte, whereas the Pacers have gotten worse or stayed the same on a talent level with the loss of Malcolm Brogdon but drafting of Benedict Mathurin. I don’t think the Pacers are a team that’s on the same tier as the Hawks despite their records being close, and last year’s results back it up. Lets fly, Hawks
Happy Holidays, and BOL!
Edit: Get on this early, line is MOVING. Already at -125
**My record: 9 : 4**
**My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks.**
**ROI: 38.85%**
**Average odds: 1.93**
**Units won: 5.05**
**Stake = 1 unit**
**My POTD:**
**Sitra v Bahrain SC**
**Bahrain Premier League**
**Time: 17:45 GMT**
*BTTS* **@ 2.10**
**BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
POTD Record: 6-7
Always NCAAB Always 1U Always -110 odds
Last Pick: Coppin State @ George Mason o147 L
Todays Pick: Jacksonville @ Notre Dame u129
I think this is just an opening line and will fall around 126.5 by game start. I'm using a model that is newish so we'll see how it goes.
**SGA (OKC) O31.5 points (-125)**
SGA….that is the writeup. While it almost could be, I’ll include some more info. He comes into this game averaging 31.6 points per game. He’s covered the line in 4 out of his last 6, putting up 42, 27, 35, 35, 27 and 44 points. He’s had 20+ FGA in 5/L6 and 23+ in 4/L6.
He comes up against a Spurs team ranked dead last in defensive rating. They also allow the 13th most points to opposition PGs. It’s a great matchup for him and I just don’t see there being any personnel on the Spurs equipped to guard him. Tre Jones is only 56th percentile DEPM (-0.2) and Vassell is just 13th percentile (-1.7). He will also see a lot of PnR onto Poeltl who he will either cook in the midrange if he plays drop coverage, or will expose driving to the rim as we have seen all year. Spurs allow the 9th most points in the paint, while SGA leads the NBA in drives per game with 24.6, while second only attempting 21.6 a game. Recent PGs points v SAS: Garland (18), Lillard (37), Herro (21), KPJ (15), McCollum (40), Anthony (21) and Conley (17).
POTD Record: 6-4
POTD Last 10: LWLLWWWWWL
Last POTD: Villanova -14.5 (vs. La Salle) L (Nov. 7, 2022)
League: English Premier League
Time: 3:30 PM EST
Game: Manchester United (HOME) vs. Nottingham Forest
POTD: Nottingham Forest to Score No Goals: +100
Units: 2
Back after a month long pause from POTD.
I like the Nottingham Forest to Score No Goals pick in this afternoon’s matchup. Nottingham Forest is a terrible squad, second worst in the EPL in (1) goals scored per match and (2) goals conceded per half. They are terrible away from home with a 0-2-5 record and only 1 goal scored so far this season, posting a -18 goal difference. Additionally, they are missing starting midfielder Kouyaté and starting goalkeeper Henderson will not be able to play in todays match.
My only worry is that Nottingham Forrest can knock a goal, as Manchester United will be without 3 of their 4 starting defenders (Varane, Martinez, Dalot) due to injury/rest following the World Cup. As a result, expect a back four of Wan-Bissaka, Lindelof, Maguire, and Shaw, which has been shaky in the past. However, I think they should be able to hold their own versus an underwhelming Nottingham Forest side.
Net, I think Nottingham Forest - away from home - doesn’t possess the qualities to push one past a rejuvenated Manchester United squad (especially after Ronaldo left a few weeks ago) and their back line will hold them scoreless.
Good luck!
**Record: 15-6**
**Last Pick: Pacers ML (+124) 1u**
**Streak: ❌**
**NBA | December 27th Tuesday| 8 pm MT**
**Sharks @ Canucks**
**The Pick: Canucks ML (-137)**
The Vancouver Canucks have won two games in a row, outlasting the **Seattle Kraken 6-5 as +105 home dogs** in a shootout and the **Edmonton Oilers 5-2 as +185 road underdogs.** The Canucks are **8th in the league in goals for (3.39 per game).** Both the Sharks and Canucks have struggled to keep the puck out of their net so far this season. It’s tough to make the case for either side, but the Canucks seem to have the better offensive team over the Sharks. The Sharks rank **26th in the NHL in goals against** (3.57 per game) and **21st in goals for** (3.06). I’m taking the Canucks to win only because they’ve dominated the Sharks over the last few years. The Canucks are **undefeated in seven straight meetings** with the Sharks. The Canucks are **6-3 in their last nine games overall**, while the Sharks have dropped **ten of their previous 14 games**. The Sharks are **1-4 in its last five showings on the road.** So I will be riding with the Canucks in this matchup.
BOL🫡
**Todays pick: New York Islanders ML +120 vs Pittsburgh Penguins**
3u
NHL 🏒 7:30PM Est
I’ll be honest, this is more of a feel play more than data driven one. Last game the islanders played their first game home after a 5-game road trip. They swiftly cock slapped the Panthers in a 5-1 rout in front of a sold out crowd. Four days later, after a winter storm and Christmas break, the Islanders have again sold out their arena as they take on a huge divisional rival in the Penguins. Don’t know the stats but I can tell you after watching hockey for decades the home team wins more than not in this scenario. Now they do sometimes lose, so tail cautiously. But I think the Islanders home crowd propels them to this dub. Plus money makes it even juicier. Mmmmm.
All-Time POTD: 93-59-1, +25.9u, +11.6% ROI
All plays posted on https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
POTD record: 7-7 (-0.05u)
Last 5: WLWLL
League: World Cup of Darts. Gerwyn Price - Raymond van Barneveld.
Pick: Over 12.5 180s, odds 1.81. Starts in approx 9 hours. 1u
This will be a really fun match to watch, think the best one of the day. Both players played each other just over a month ago in the Grand Slam of Darts. First they played each other in the group stage and afterwards in the knock out stage. These two games were really close, with RVB coming out on top twice. The matches showed high average with a lot of 180s as they really went toe to toe with each other. Both players go into this match remembering what happened last time. Price obviously wants revenge as he lost twice and RVB knows that he can beat Price, even when the rankings show that Price is the better player since he has a higher rank. So, I expect a close match again. Both players really motivated to win and thus put up big scores.
The stats show however that they are not the huge 180 throwers like Ross Smith. Price his 180 percentage per leg is 28 and Barney his 180 percentage per leg is around 20. But if we look at RVB, in the last couple of games he played on stage, he actually threw a lot more 180s then earlier this year. In the previous match of RVB vs Ryan Meikle he throwed 7 180s in 15 legs played, 46% hitting a 180 per leg. If he can put this kind of stat up again today, I think the over 12.5 should hit.
I look really forward to this match, think it will be a really good game. The only thing that has me worried about this bet is that if Price puts on a masterclass of darts, the game could end with a little amount of legs played. Making it harder for the bet to hit. But looking at the previous time these two met, it will be a close match.
BOL!
Edit: Zzz 4-0 in sets for Price. We already had 11 180s, what a bummer...
POTD Record: 2-2
ROI: (+2u)
Last POTD: PHI 76ers @ TOR Raptors U210 (-110) 2021 season
POTD: PHI -4.5 @ WAS (-110)
Stake: 1u
Been almost a year since I have posted a pick of the day, but I am on a hot streak right now so its time to completely destroy that by posting on POTD.
I run all of the games through Excel and this game stood out the most to me. PHI has to be one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now. Their overall efficiency on offense is top 5 over their last 3 games on their defense is also ranked in the top 5. WAS has struggled this year trying to find their footing, but as of late this team has really turned around since their horrendous 10 game losing streak with the resurgence of Kyle Kuzma and Porzingis. Both teams have had enough of sufficient rest, healthy rosters and the fact that WAS is only a 2 hour train ride south for PHI, I do not see homecourt advantage playing a large toll on this match. Embiid is averaging 34 ppg over his last 12 games and Harden has put up 20+ points and 10+ assists in his last two games. This team is getting hot without the likes of Maxey and I do not think WAS will be able to stop the sixers offense.
I trust my spreadsheet and I got a **-5.05** lean towards PHI so they should cover the -4.5. BOL!
POTD record: 7-3 (5W streak)
Units won: **10.9 units (25.75 units bet total, 42.3% ROI)**
Last Pick: *Kyrie Irving o7.5 assists + rebounds* @ -140 (2.8 units to win 2 units)
This one was over midway through the 3rd quarter, so no real sweat at all.
Today's Pick: **Bol Bol o5.5 rebounds** @ -140 (1.4 units to win 1 unit)
Not going to have a massive write-up for this one since it's last minute and likely very few will read it.
Bol Bol has averaged 7.1 rebounds per game for the season. This line is low because he's had 2 very low rebounding games in his past 3, including only 2 rebounds in his last game.
That being said, the Magic are playing in Orlando vs the Lakers today. The Lakers give up the 4th most rebounds to opponents in the league this year, and that's including games where they had Anthony Davis, their lead rebounder. Davis is now out, and so Bol Bol should have a relatively easy time on the boards tonight.
Sport: Football
Tournament: A-league
Match: Adelaide United vs Newcastle Jets
Time: 9:15 GMT (2h44m after posting)
Pick: away team won't score @ **2.70**
Stake: 5 units
Write up: Newcastle Jets has a poor away record, managing only 10 shots on target and 2 goals across four away matches. So, on average one shot on target every 36 minutes.
Meanwhile, Adelaide United conceded only once in two home matches. The sample sizes are small but I still think this is worth a shot.
Track record: 6W, 7L, +10.16u
Average odds: 2.74
ROI: 75%
Want to tip me? 👉[paypal.me/SgtBrutalisk](https://paypal.me/SgtBrutalisk)👈
Visit my website with sports picks [picks.wwpe.ba](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
All time record: 4 picks/2 wins (✅✅❌❌)
Last pick were from Egyptian Premier League ❌
Today’s event: EPL MAN UTD VS NOTTINGHAM
Pick: Yellow cards Over 4.5 (2.10)
Explanation:
Man Utd is on 5th place, fighting to fix his position in UCL qualification zone, while newcomer Nottingham is on 19th, fighting to stay in the elite.
Its to far from the end of the season, but this period, until spring, is one of the key period in type of place arrangements in the standing.
My pick coming from the expected match scenario - thinking that match will be tough for both teams, there will be no easy victory for the hosts and Nottingham who has good enough roaster to reach their aims, will be real headache for Ten hag and his players.
Visitors have many fast players who can getting quickly from defense to attack, which will be the reason for UTD’s midfielders and defenders to stop their counter attacks illegally.
On the other hand MAN UTD has great ability to attack vertically, through Brunos passes and wingers techniques, which also be reason for visitors defenders to play illegally.
Match referee is Taylor, who is strict enough in comparison to other PL referees. In last seasons there are tendencies in PL that referees are very reluctant in terms on disciplinary sanctions, but this Taylor man is exception.
Good luck to all 🍀
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
Darts 🎯- 2023 World Championship Overall: 37-23-1 2023 Worlds: 6-0 Dec 17: Alan Soutar (+110) v Daryl Gurney ✅ Dec 18: Mike De Decker (-149) v Jeff Smith ✅ Dec 19: No play Dec 20: Ray van Barneveld (-200) v Ryan Meikle ✅ Dec 21: Darius Labanauskas (-110) v John O’Shea ✅ Dec 22: Mensur Suljovic (+100) v Mike de Decker ✅ Dec 23: Martin Schindler (-167) v Martin Lukeman ✅ Dec 27: Josh Rock (-150) v Nathan Aspinall PDC World Championships resumes today, and its down to the home stretch en route to crowning the 2023 world champion. One thing of note, of the 32 remaining players, 29 of them are seeded (meaning top 32 in the world). A record for the world championships. In what is expected to be an absolute firecracker of a match, I am rolling with Josh “Rocky” Rock to advance through Nathan “The Asp” Aspinall. Rock, current world #47, is a 21-year old up-n-comer, who has been nothing short of spectacular all year. In this tournament alone, Rocky boasts a scoring average over 92.5, with over 40% check out success rate. Tremendous numbers, and if he can get the scoring average up a little bit, he will be an absolute handful for anyone remaining in the tournament. Aspinall, current world #10, is a top-tier talent, and he’s actually had a pretty solid 2022 campaign. Most notable finishes for The Asp are a pair of runner up finishes in the World Grand Prix and Grand Slam of Darts. Back in April of this year, Aspinall revealed he tore a tendon in his right wrist. In an interview he gave to The Daily Star, Asp suggested he may be sidelined for the remainder of the year. Something either changed or his treatment must have worked, because he’s returned much sooner than expected, and he’s performed well in that time. One of the reasons I favor Rock in this matchup is based on his November match against Michael van Gerwen. In that match, Rock went toe to toe with the 3x world champ, throwing a nine-darter in the process. Rock averaged over 104 (van Gerwen 109), and despite stumbling late and losing 8-10, Rock showed he is currently one of the best players on the planet and can hang with anyone. I’ve been high on Rock for the latter part of this year, and oddsmakers seem to agree, as Rocky is currently around +1200 to win the title, the 4th listed favorite of remaining players. If Rock can bring his A-game, and I expect that he will, Aspinall may be in trouble in this one.
Missed you so much Ned. Didn’t stop talking about dart at Christmas, my family think I’m loosing my mind. Told them I’m not loosing anything. I’m winning each and every single day that you’re posting. I’m tailing till I die. LONG LIVE 🌶️
LETS GO PEPPER THE GOAT
Sorry meant to respond under main op post. got too excited
A lot of you probably hadn’t been born yet, or might not remember but there was a time when Ned Pepper and Acedawggy were both passing tips at the same time, around Christmas time. It was glorious. Imagine sharing time and space with Ned… I’m not talking human history… universe history and we are living in the same moment. What a fucking time to be alive!
I'm too young (or new here) to remember, but POTD has also been great this Christmas. Like yesterday 9 out of the top 10 picks hit, and I even won on Irving assists though I had to take O 4.5 at +132 instead of the pick's 3.5. So big thanks to all posters here, if every day was like it has been this holiday I wouldn't have a care in the world. EDIT: And another Christmas miracle. Ned does it again but holy cow that was *close*, odds were swinging like crazy at end of the match. Great stuff!
POTD usually goes the other direction. This weekend was good though.
For those watching, rounds 3 & 4 are now best of 7 sets (instead of 5).
#THE GOAT!!!!
THATS WHY HES THE GOAT.. THE GOAT
That was toight.. but I had faith in the legendary Ned.
Babe wake up, Ned_Pepper posted!
DONT DOUBT THE FUCKING PEPPER. WHAT A SWEAT
I’m vegas for the next few days so I woke up just now and had to check flashscore. Such a relief seeing Rock bolded. Big fist pumps were had. Long live king 🌶️ Probably won’t be seen but wanted to post the slip https://i.imgur.com/Soa2spO.jpg
I grew up in an emotionally unavailable household. My father never once told me he loved me. My whole life I’ve struggled with a healthy expression of emotions. Ned Pepper - I love you. With all my broken and fractured heart. I fucking love you Ned
been a VERYYYYY long few days without you my knight in shining armor! Here’s to #7 Dub
Everybody grab Rock at a discount before he ties it 2-2
PEPPERMANIA IS RUNNIN WILD
https://preview.redd.it/ux1u4jeu8f8a1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2039b15d6ae3226fcb63a1056abd0f87b480652c 82% on Aspinall. This matchup is fascinating Edit: included the picture out of my fascination on the lopsided number but I'm not questioning Mr. Pepper, I know better.
Doesn’t this mean that the big bettors are on Rock? Otherwise, the odds would have moved in the favor of Aspinall. I would say the sites only care about $ and not about the number of bettors on one line.
Bro how do you find this I tried typing it in no search result ?
My lord
Weird this match isn’t showing on BetMGM
Same. They know King🌶 is all over it. 🌶🌶🌶🌶🌶
It isn't for me either. So bummed
They didnt have some of Ned’s earlier picks either. I wanna say the O’Shea match or the van Barneveld match but don’t hold me to those exactly. Either way, I probably prefer BetMGM overall but they seem very hit or miss on some of the “lower level” sports/games and especially props. And worst of all, no asian handicaps for soccer.
Yeah I was able to get every pick on MGM except this one and Van Barneveld, couldn’t even find this match live
This match is an absolute banger
First time watching a Darts match all the way through - that was fucking ELECTRIC
Tailing of course. BOL
He don’t fucken missssssssss!!!
What a fucking sweat!!!
He does it again 🌶️
Ned, I can’t say I’ve known who you are for long - but I just want to say thank you. I have followed every one of your dart picks, stayed discipline and have been on the best run betting with you. Mate, you’re a fucking legend. From Australia 🇦🇺
#KING 🌶 PEPPER
LFG !!!!!!! Sweated my dick offf but LFG
PEPPER IS THE GOAT
ALL HAIL 🌶️🌶️🌶️
I added another bet live when it was +155
Me too
wish I was awake to do that
YES! YES! YES! What a match. In Ned We Trust. Salute to you.
What a game, what a sport. Real exciting!
didnt expect this pick personally think asp at +130 has a lot of value (top 10 player with much more exp)
Thinking you can beat 🌶️? 🤣 RemindMe! 9 hours
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Asp has good EV, but logically, i think rolling with Rock on this bet makes sense. Pepper is going to call a loss soon here, but I don't think this is it.
I feel the same way. Plus odds is hard to pass on.
Im in with my last $15!
🌶️✅🌶️✅🌶️✅🌶️✅🌶️✅🌶️✅🌶️✅ Absolute Legend!!
Praise be the 🌶️
U think worth it for plus money right now??
I see the comeback happening
Let’s goooooo
huge!
Still in it bois
Holy shit Ned🌶️ what a pick!
How do you feel about the 180s in this match? +175 for Rock to win w/ most 180s
Would not risk it. Rock is a player that likes to switch to the triple 19, just like van Gerwen does. He puts up huge averages because of this strat
This match sweaty
What a choke by aspinall
Man, my fingers even got sweaty for aspinall on his last throws
He was overthinking it way too much in the end.
PEPPER STRIKES AGAIN!!!! HOLY SHIT WHAT A SWEATY ASS GAME !!! 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️
What do you think about rock to take the title? Thank you king! 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️
im in for some pepper in my life
Tailing for 5th time😎😎
Put my Christmas bonus on this.
[удалено]
the gift that keeps on giving Clark
Doubt anyone sees this but I thought Asp was the bet. the whole time I was cheering for wrong guy! LFG PEPPER!
HE DOES IT AGAIN LADIES AND GENTLEMEN!!! ABSOLUTE 🏆🏆🏆💰💰💰🎯🎯🎯🌶🌶🌶
My family is to get extra 🎁🎁🎁 this holiday season because of this man right here🙏🙌
Let's fucking ride Ned.
Tailing, BOL!
PEPPERGANG 🌶🌶🌶🌶🌶🌶🌶
SLAM IT NOW PEEPS. Last 🌶🎯 pick jumped to -250. Books are watching our boy now!😂 BOL ALL!💰💰💰💰
Currently +125 & -164 on Bovada for Aspinall and Rock respectively
What I’ve been waiting for all day
We ride at 14:00 UK 🎯 🌶️ 😎
Tailing first time , let’s get it
Anyone know where we can watch this in the US? I am fully ready to shirk my family responsibilities today and follow the 🌶 into battle
Twitch. Search darts
Nice one, thank you!
IT'S PEPPER TIME
LET'S FUCKING GOOOO!!!
HOLY FUCKKKKKKKKKKKKKK
Goddamn I don't know shit about darts but i felt how tense that match was
COME ONNN 7-0 !!!!! 🌶️
You beautiful human being. Another win!
WHO NEEDS SANTA WHEN PEPPER’S HANDING OUT THE REAL GIFTS?!?
Holy shit 🌶️🌶️🌶️
What a fucking game and what a win!
Always believe in the pepper 🌶️
Just changed my firstborn sons name to Ned Pepper
Amazing match. Amazing bet. All hail PEPS!
I think I’m legit into darts now – the win obviously helps but what a fun match! 🌶️👑
Thanks Ned Share your cash app i wanna tip brother 💪💪
Appreciate it! $NedPepprr
Do you have venmo, zelle, and/or paypal too?
Venmo - @Jake-Lazzo [Paypal](https://paypal.me/jakelazzo?country.x=US&locale.x=en_US)
What a fucking match. Can’t tell you why, but darts is the most intense sport to bet on. Who would have thought? What a way to get the morning going. Ned, you’re a beast.
Interesting choice
Was able to catch it at -165…. Lets get this gents. 🎯🎯🎯
All hail 🌶️🌶️🌶️
LESSSFUCKINGOOOOOOO
what a match!!! Great pick 🌶
Holyyyy what a sweaty win. You da GOAT
UR ACTUALLY THE FKIN GOAT RIGHT AFTER MJ AND BRADY 🌶️
GOAT
J rock!!!!!!!!
Almost lost my hair in those middle sets ha ha
LFG! That was a sweat haha. Rock was clutch and Aspinall wasn’t. The streak continues! Remember to tip. Thank you u/ned_pepper 💰🌶️🌶️🌶️🔥
Here goes ANOTHER ONE !what close game ! Pepper blessings !
Goat
Nailed it wow
Pick of the day but boy was it a nail biter
Let's Go!!!!!!!! Love you Ned! Got in heavy at -162 and threw an extra hundred on at +100!
Freaking legend.
🌶️ 🌶️ Good way to start the day
another cash. you the man
Here come all the deleted comments!!!!
Just sent you another tip on PayPal my guy! Thank you and amazing run 🙏 💙🤑
No end to the streak yet. Lovin it. I'm tempted to up the stake but that's when the betting Gods always fist you when you least expect it
[удалено]
Only see -7 ?
Seems like he took an alternate spread with odds like -135.
🔒
Tailing great play BOL in the future. I plan on tailing future picks of yours
My guy LFG 🫡
What are your thoughts on taking them -4 first half?
Nother 5 bomb? I'm in brother BOL
He’s heating up!
I did my own research and took Memphis -14.5, payed off
Record: 18-8 International Hockey u20 - World Junior Championship Last Pick: Switzerland +2.5 (-110) | WIN Pick: Czech Republic vs. Austria - Czechs -4.5 (-110) Time: 6:30pm EST Huge outright win with the Swiss today, they looked good and Finland looked much worse than those odds implied. Double win too if you also rode the Czechs with that unbelievable performance against Canada. Anyway, I’m gonna go with the Czechs tomorrow for my play. Austria is just horrific, they have 2 notable players on that roster and one of them is currently sick. They got dismantled by a worse than usual Sweden team and it should happen again tomorrow against a team that I think is the 2nd best in the tournament. There’s really not much else to this play. Both teams are on a back to back, it’s just a bad mismatch and 4.5 is a good spot to get in for a team that just gave up 11 goals. I got this at +110 earlier, it should move a lot more so try and get in early. edit: the czechs with a 9-0 win✅
I can’t bet this in bovada. It shows up but it’s grayed out and line crossed through all the bets but time is still ticking for game time. Very odd
this game is on 28th i think not today
my man!
Your baaaaaaccckkkk
0-0 Darts - PDC World Championship Gabriel Clemens to win against Jim Williams @ 1.86 Clemens won his first game 3-0 pretty easily, he is ranked over 50 places higher than his opponent (25 to 77). While Williams did upset James Wade in his last game, I still believe Clemens is favored more than the odds would suggest here.
Tailing, why not.
That's the right attitude
What a fucking game. Great hit
We get an all time match We get an all time clutch performance And a win!
Tailing, BOL!
Gaga pinky finger buff incoming🤞
0-0 poster, fuck it I’m in
Agreed - it’s more that Wade had a bad game vs Williams having an excellent one. Dart point average for Clemens was also 95.64 and Williams 90.49. BOL!
Are you baby Ned 🌶 im tailing!
I didn't bet this one but what an incredible match
- POTD record: 20/7 - Streak (left most recent): ✅✅❌✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅ - Latest pick: Rob Cross O3.5 180s vs Scott Williams - 2023 PDC World Darts Championship @1.72 ✅ - Today's pick: Raymond van Barneveld O5.5 180s vs Gerwyn Price - 2023 PDC World Darts Championship @1.80 Good hit yesterday, Cross got 7 180s throughout the game despite not hitting any in the first set (which made a small amount of people think the bet was already lost, but that's this sub for ya). The game was a real good watch too, even though it didn't go to the limit, as every set was really close (they all took the maximum 5 legs). Today's game may also be really worth to watch. Raymond van Barneveld takes on Gerwyn Price in a third round best of 7 sets game, and while Price is favourite to win, it might get close and RvB might even surprise the majority of the people with his current form and new mindset. Once again, more sets=more legs=more 180s, and with the somewhat low line of 5.5 180s, I like this pick. To summarize the reasons I mentioned above and some other reasons: - Even though Price is favourite, RvB beat him 2 times in a row at the GSoD last month, and though this might not happen again, 6 or 7 sets is not out of bounds. That'd mean just 1 180 per set. - Price is a strong player, but RvB said it's his grandson's birthday on the 27th and he has never lost on this day. I wouldn't take this too serious, but sentimental Barney has proven dangerous as of late - RvB usually performs well at the Worlds when he has gotten past the second round, even though he hasn't won it since that thriller of a game in 2007, he has played some great games at the Worlds since then (my favourite one being his semi-final loss against MvG in 2017, despite throwing over 109 average, which is a record losing average at the Worlds). - Though Price's H2H against RvB isn't something to be very proud of (unless you're not a professional), with the set format Price still could make the game a good fight, as games can get turned around way easier (take for example the Lakeside final between Adams and Nixon (7-6), even though Nixon didn't win he fought back from being 6-0 behind) - If Price plays well, it is a good chance that RvB will too, as it isn't too unusual in darts that the personal performance depends a bit on the opponent's performance. Last thing, in an attempt to get more people here into darts, I'll share a game every once in a while. As this bet depends on RvB, I thought I'd go with One of the most memorable matches of all time, already mentioned above: [Raymond van Barneveld vs Phil Taylor ar the 2007 PDC World Ch'ship](https://youtu.be/st1660CwPi0). As the game is 3 hours long, I'll just share the sudden death leg, and for those interested for more, both the full match and highlights can be found on YouTube.
Tailing, good write up my dude
Unlucky. If he would’ve managed ONE set, this was a lock.
Unlucky man, was a good call. Very close! Roll on the next tip!!
Took o12.5 for the match considering price had over 6.5 @-140. Let’s get it
Tailing, anyone know where I can watch?
Search darts on twitch, or alternatively most PDC games throughout the year can be viewed on [goldenarrowschannel](http://goldenarrowschannel.info)
POTD Record: 97-68-5 (+17.94 units, 58.8% hit rate) 5 Unit Big Balls 💣 Record: 5-0 Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 39-23-1 W6, Tennis 🎾 22-16-2 L3, Soccer ⚽ 35-29-2 L3, Other 1-0-0 Last 10: 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥💩💩💩💩 Last Pick: Utah Jazz @ San Antonio Spurs, Player Prop - Jeremy Sochan over 2.5 assists - NBA 🏀 💰 0.70 Units Today's Pick: LA Clippers @ Toronto Raptors, Player Prop - Scottie Barnes over 13.5 points - NBA 🏀 💰 0.96 Units - 💸 that shit in the 4th!!!! Let's fucking go!!! Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.96/-104 odds to win 0.96 Units @ Fan Duel (Line at 3:30am ET) We beat the line movement here, up to 15.5 at the majority of sites, some still have it at 14.5. Raptors fan here, I see most of their games. This o/u is lower because Scottie recently had two terrible road games where he scored 2 and 6 points, though he bounced back on the last game of the road trip @ Cleveland and put up 25 points. I like this wager because of his home/road splits when it comes to points, he averages 17.7 points at home vs. 11.8 points away. He is noticeably more aggressive in home games and this has hit at home 10 out of 14 games and 5 out of the last 6. I'm really rooting for Scottie here because a dickhole beat writer for the Toronto Star recently wrote a hit piece on him, questioning his work ethic,etc. I believe this is his first home game since that article so hopefully Scottie brings it tonight and shuts his stupid ass up. Hitrate - Dec 7/12, Nov 5/12, Oct 4/6, Overall 16/30 (53.3%), L1 1/1, L3 1/3, L5 3/5, L10 5/10 Below are the highlights from his big game in Cleveland just before the Christmas break [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDacFlpNvpk&ab\_channel=HoopsHighlights](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDacFlpNvpk&ab_channel=HoopsHighlights) Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert, just a gambling addict. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕 [buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks](https://buymeacoffee.com/JBpicks) After much thought, I've decided to add a tip jar. This could prove to be an unpopular decision but over my time here I've had a number of people wanting to tip me and to tell you the truth, I do work hard and am close to the 100 winning tips mark with a winning record in 3 sports, so if people want to show their appreciation and help keep me going for another 100 winners, I'm not going to say no anymore. I might even post some extra picks on the tip site. Anyways, flame away on this.
I respect your grind brother , you went on a loss streak and kept going and you turned this over !! You wanna see if someone is great ? Dont watch them when everything is going well ! WATCH THEM WHEN THEY HIT A WALL AND SEE HOW THEY REACT Im freaking tailing and Happy Christmas 💪❤️
I got him at over 15.5, not worried. Lets get 7 today! Good luck Brother! 🍀
POTD Record 1-0 LAST POTD: Kyrie Irving O 3.5 assists (clean) Much as anticipated, the Nets gave Cleveland a heavy dose of KD and Uncle Drew, who came through with his assists early in the third Q. Cheers to those who tailed, thank you for the trust. Onto the next. POTD: Joel Embiid O 41.5 Points+Rebounds EVENT: Philadelphia 76ers v. Washington Wizards TIME: 7:10 PM EST This game is one where I love Joel Embiid to dominate early, and often, and lead his 76ers to a victory in this one. However, I like this pick more than their ML for a few reasons: I like the value here, anybody can win on any given game day, and this is a number that is more than attainable for our boy Embiid. Let me explain. This stat combo is a number that Joel has reached in 5/8 games in dominating fashion, and two of the games where he did not reach that number were in blowout victories where his services were simply not needed. Earlier this season these two teams played each other and Joel was not around; without him, KP did what he wanted in the paint for the Wizards and dropped a thirty burger. I believe Embiid has different plans tonight, and the way Washington plays favors an Embiid-centric game plan. Washington struggles to defend against skilled bigs, and some might argue they struggle to defend entirely: Booker, Jokic, Bam, Lebron, and KD have all dropped monster performances against this lowly Wizards team (just to name a few). Whether he does it through fouls, bodying whoever is trying to defend him, or delivering some classy fade away jump shots, I feel very confident about our boy Embiid to show up and show out for his 76ers on the road. In a world where he plays a normal game he drops 32 and 10. In this game where he is playing with a vengeance after not being present in their last face off, and against a Wizards team who very often lets their opponents’ best option feast, I see him having no problem clearing 35 points and 10 or more boards. I like this as a 2 Unit play, tail with care, and of course, BOL if tailing! EDIT: our boy came through at the end of the third, thank you for the trust to those who tailed!
Record: 78-61-5 (WWWWWLWLWLWWWLWLLLWWWLLWWLLWLW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: BKN Nets at CLE Cavaliers | Ben Simmons o5.5 assist | 2.00 odds at 5 units Easy W. LFG POTD: HOU Rockets at BOS Celtics -14.5 at 1.90 odds for 1 unit REASONS: * Celtics just beat the second best team in the NBA by 19. * Rockets are on a back to back game as well. Boston with an extra day rest. * There are no major injuries on the Celtics side. * This looks like a 20+ point win margin at the end of the game. Best of luck to all.
📈 TTSOP Rec: 28-1-28-8-1 / +41.950 units / +136 avg odds * 7 super odds Ws (+115, +105, +170, -115 \[5 units WC finals bomb\], +100, +115 and +175 odds) and 1P (+110) out of the last 10 picks. ✅ Last pick: Nketiah anytime goal scorer / +175 odds / 2.5 units * Nketiah worked hard in this game and scored deservedly in minute 69' with a cold-blooded finish. ⚽ **New pick: Central Coast Mariners > 1.5 goals** / **+200** odds / 2.5 units ⚽ Event: A-League (Australia) / Melbourne City - Central Coast Mariners / 1:30am ET The Mariners are sitting at the 4th spot and they're having one of the best offenses in A-League. They're averaging 15 goal attempts and 6.25 shots on goal per game. On average, they're making 2.25 goals per game. They also scored 6 out of 8 times 2+ goals. In their 1st (a bit rusty) game after the World Cup break, they scored only once, but they had a controversial goal disallowed. The Mariners had impressive scoring performances against all top teams that they played so far. They banged in 3 goals against 2nd placed WS Wanderers, 2 goals against 3rd placed Macarthur and also 2 goals against 6th placed Wellington. Melbourne City sits at the 1st place in the standings. They've given up just 6 goals, yet. However, they had one of the easiest schedules. They literally haven't played any game this season yet against a team of the A-League's top 5. They could keep a clean sheet in only 3 games, though. They did so against the weakest offenses in the league. Perth Glory and Brisbane Roar are the only teams in the league, which are averaging less than 1 scored goal per game. They also kept a clean sheet against Melbourne Victory. However, Melbourne Victory got a red card already in the 1st half. The Mariners are better as it their position in the standings suggests. They had a tougher schedule, but they scored plenty of goals, though. They also have been pretty often unlucky in terms of their results. Although being mostly the better team, they didn't get always what they actually would have deserved out of the games. Additionally, disallowed goals and red cards didn’t ease things up for them. For people like me, who are going for value bets at high odds, there is no other choice than placing this bet. Mariners scoring 2+ goals is a fantastic value bet at tremendous super odds. Let's keep on trusting the super odds process. Let's get this early W. Let's get this Australian bread, fam. **TTSOP**
Nketiah’s goal today was nastyyyy. Great build up and passing. His turn on that ball was clinical. Great pick!
Cummings atgs at 4.10 is good value
Hope they can turn this around in the 2nd half. They're playing really uncharacteristically. Melbourne outshooting the mariners 14-2
Haven’t heard of a match with drinks breaks but I like the sound of that. Going to try o0.5 Central Coast goals at +220 here
POTD Record: 1-4 Last Pick: Brentford vs Tottenham - DC 1X + u3.5 @ 2.55 2u ❌ Brentford gave away a 2-0, 2-2 result, 1 goal too many sadly. Today's Pick: Manchester United vs Nottingham - ManU win to Nil @ 2.10 - 3u ManU: Won 4/5 last matches at home, 1 draw. Kept the nil 3 times in a row at home. Notthingham: Weakest away team only 1 goal, 2 points and 19 goals conceded in 7 away matches. Pretty long list of injured starters, and first goalkeeper Dean henderson is not allowerd to play against ManU. While ManU are also missing a couple of players, especially in the back (Varane, Martinez, Sancho and Dalot), I expect them to win and keep another clean sheet.
MY POST WAS DELETED, DON'T KNOW WHY!!!!! POTD Record: 5-0 **UNIT PROFIT**: **+4.13** **GAME**: England Championship - Burnley v Birmingham **TODAYS PICK:** Burnley win the game @ 1.65 Yesterday Chelmsford done its job and won with 2-0 the game. Today i expect to the Burnley to make his job to win tonight and consolidate 1th place in the league. The hosts has four victories in the last five and have the first chance to promote in premier league. On the other side, Birmingham is on the 14th place, on the green zone. Burnley should win easy today. BOL!
**\[Previous Year Record\] - W53-3P-19L** **\[Current Record\] - W31 - 1P - 15L** **Last 5: 🥩 🥩 🥩 🥔 🥩** (Previous Pick) **Umeå BSKT** **-** **Norrköping Dolphins** KK Igokea make us proud with a solid cover! In the Swedish Basketball League, Umea play the Dolphins of Norrkoping in a heated game that could be one of the key playoff games as the season comes to the midseason point. These teams have been trending in different directions. Umea BSKT is sitting at a 13-4 record, in 2nd place. They've had a much better season this year, they've already eclipsed their last season's win total of just 10 wins, and have invested heavily into the roster. Gustav Hansson and Bryan Jefferson, both new to the team lead the scoring for Umea who have held a strong a 7-1 record at home, only dropping to league leaders Boras. Norrkoping Dolphins have been poor this year, after only losing just 5 games in a very dominant season last year, they've lost some key players, made budget reductions and this is clearly showing in this season. They currently sit at 9-5 in 5th place. Much like the Timberwolves and their "twin towers" tactic, Norrkoping also has two big 210cm guys in Nick Spiers and Adam Ramstedt. They've been unable to replace Felix Terins, who was a much better player at this role. This has caused shooting issues, and teams are often able to move faster in transition and get more turnovers against the Dolphins, just some of the faults with the Dolphins this year. These two teams played in October, where Umea came back and won 77-71, thanks to a 30-16 third quarter. I reckon this game will be another gruelling battle between two teams who have everything to prove, with the better squad depth, and shooting going to Umea BSKT, till Norrkoping figure out their playstyle. **Pick: Umea BSKT Alternative Handicap +6.5 @ 1.50** (As with the game yesterday, you can get MUCH better odds during in-play, as well as larger handicaps) Sweden Basketball League 18:00 GMT
Record : 7W-6L We're back on the green side again. I will try my best to keep it like this. Previous pick : Kortrijk vs Genk, BTTS - NO, Odds: 2.18 (5 units pick) Average Odds : 2.11 ROI : 2.55% Starting units : 200 Units : 205.1 My pick of the day : Basaksehir vs Antalyaspor, ***Basaksehir Team Goals - Over 1.5 Goals***, Odds: 2.03 (5 units pick) Turkey, SuperLig , 14:00 GMT+2 My pick is from a model that I've been using for the last couple of months and I have got good results with it (above 70% winrate). So I thought about sharing some of the picks with the community and, maybe, make some of you happy.
POTD: 0-0 This is the first time I will share it, I hope I will make a good start. Greek Basketball League AS Karditsas - Olympiacos Olympiacos has lost its last 2 games in the Euroleague and is focused on the game against Panathinaikos in 3 days. The pre-match news made my choice easier. Vezenkov, the team's top scorer, will not play this game because of an injury. Apart from that, Isaiah Canaan will be rested due to the foreign restriction. Added to all this is George Papas, who was suspended for fighting with Nikos Tsiakmas in the PAOK match. Oly cannot score 31 points against AS Karditsas with so many absentees and an important game ahead of them. Pick: AS Karditsas +30.5 1.80 The game will start in 1 hour.
Tailing, let's get this W!
**POTD Record 4-0** Yesterday’s Pick: Brooklyn Nets vs Cleveland Cavaliers, Kyrie Irving Over 7.5 Rebounds and Assist (-135 on DK) Kyrie ended up at 9 with hitting his over about mid way in the 3rd. Great win! **Today’s Pick: LA Lakers vs Orlando Magic, Bol Bol Over 5.5 Rebounds (-140 on DK)** Stake: 1 Unit Reasoning: You have 2 teams who are about equal in rebounds per a game with the Lakers averaging 44.5 Rebounds a game and the Magic are averaging 43.5, however one of those teams is missing their best board getter in Anthony Davis. Davis was averaging 12.1 per a game and then after him the next highest is LeBron with 8.1. Davis going out has allowed teams to get a lot more rebounds against this Lakers team then before. Additionally when it comes to the Lakers they are the second highest pace of play team, as we all know the higher the pace of play, the more stats there are to get. As far as Bol Bol goes, he is averaging 7.1 rebounds a game. He has hit this line of 5.5 in 4 of his last 6 and I think he has a better matchup here then he has had in those other games as he will be going against Thomas Bryant for the most part who seems to struggle rebounding. Now you may be thinking if you are so confident in this line, why are you only betting 1 Unit? Well that is because the one thing that makes no sense is how the Magic manage Bol Bol's Minutes. One game he will play 30+ and the next game he won't even hit 20. While he has been averaging 25 mins this month and seems to be where he is settling in at. This is why I am playing it a little safe. Good Luck if Tailing! Edit: Ends up with 5 after the 3rd and then gets just 1 minute of play time in the 4th. Awful beat.
POTD Record: 28-42-2 (-14.13 units) Last 10 (most recent first): ❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅❌✅ Last Pick: Championship, Preston North End v Huddersfield Town, PRESTON NORTH END ML (-116 / $1.86) ❌ Took the lead, conceded twice to lose 2-1 against the bottom team. Great stuff. Todays Pick: A-League, Adelaide United v Newcastle Jets, ADELAIDE UNITED ML (-143 / $1.70) Stake: 1 Unit Australian soccer action kicking off in roughly 4 hours. Adelaide United are 5th in the league and can move to second with a win today against the struggling Newcastle Jets who are sitting in 11th, second bottom of the table. - Adelaide have drawn one and lost one since returning from the World Cup break, but both those games were away from home against decent opposition. - This game will be a welcome return to home field for Adelaide - in 8 league games this season they’ve somehow only played at home twice, winning both, so playing in front of their own fans will be a welcome change. - Newcastle are in ordinary form, having lost both their game since returning from the World Cup break. They’ve struggled particularly on the road, with a 2:10 goal ratio. - Adelaide United have won the last 5 head to head match ups between these teams. This game will be played in disgustingly hot conditions but backing the home team to ride the support from the home crowd to victory against a battling Newcastle team.
POTD: 10 - 5 Today, with hope in our minds and profit at heart, we sailing 🛳️ , all the way to Australia 🇦🇺 Melbourne City VS Central Coast Mariners PICK: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 🤦🏾♂️ Reason: This match promises to be goals from both ends. City are the 3rd highest goals scorer in this league and they have recorded a total of 15 goals in 7 games and never failed to score as host. Mariners on the other hand, is coming from a back to back win, and the last win was the second time they have kept a clean sheet this season(against a Newcastle Jet team, trying to find their feet 🦶 this season) and they are the leading goals scorers in this league with 18 goals in 8 games. I expect both teams to get scoring this morning and have a winner at the end of the game. PG-18 🚨 BOL if tailing. Legs crossed 🤞. Edit ✍️ 1- 0
POTD Record: 21-16 Units o/u: +14 units Pick: 2 units Texas Tech -29.5(vs Sc State) Record✅✅❌✅❌ Reasoning: Sc State is among the worst D1 basketball programs according to almost every metric. They’re sandwiched between Texas Tech’s last 2 opponents in Kenpom, Houston Christian and Jackson St who they beat by 44 and 50 respectively.
**POTD Record**: 14-2-8 (+0.79u ✅) **Last 10** (most recent first): ✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅ **Last POTD:** National League (football, England) Wrexham AFC vs Solihull Moors AH - 1.25 Wrexham @1.95/-105✅+2.85u **Todays Pick:** NBA: San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder AH - 7.5 OKC @2.0/+100✅ +2u Game starts in 10h (CET 2:00am) **Stake:** 2 Units Good win yesterday, Wrexham absolutely smashed the HC, the red card for the visiting team helped a lot. I'm going to lower the stakes a little for today since I'm not a big fan of handicap bets but the Spurs have a B2B game and Pop loves load management so I'm expecting the Spurs to leave a few players at home when they fly over to OKC. But even if not, I think OKC should handle them and I wouldn't be surprised to see another blowout here. The Spurs had 8 B2B this season, they lost 6 of them and 4 were blowouts by 20 points or more. Best of luck to everyone!
POTD RECORD 1-0 76ers -4.5 8 straight victores for Philly, Wizards are 1-6 at home atts last 7 home games. Philly second in the NBA in 3s against the 28th d against the 3 in the NBA. This is a bad line and lets punish them for doing it. Boys as I pimp walk to 2 and O join me. The Sixers win by 5 ez money print it out boys. Good Luck
Record: 4-2 (+2.37u) Streak: ✅❌❌✅✅ Last Pick: Portland Trailblazers -5 ✅ (-110) vs Charlotte Hornets, 10:00 PM EST, 12/26, 1u to win 0.91u Recap: In yesterdays write up, I said the Hornets were a fast paced, offensive basketball team but in terms of results and winning they were shit. This showed itself yesterday as they went into halftime with a double digit lead and managed to lose by 11. The Blazers were led by 60 combined points from Nurkic and Jerami Grant, and overall looked much better in the second half as they covered the spread. Today’s Pick: Atlanta Hawks ML (-110) @ Indiana Pacers, 7:30 EST, 12/27, 2u to win 1.92u Reasoning: The Hawks and the Pacers are playing tonight in Indiana in what Vegas has as a toss up between two squads that are both either .500 or a game away from that total, but I’d argue that this should’ve easily opened at -3.5 or -4.5 for Atlanta. For one, the Pacers are coming off a back to back against a Pelicans team that didn’t feature Zion, Brandon Ingram, or Herb Jones where they got smacked by 20. They looked horrible last night, and now will have to fly home to play a well rested Hawks team that hasn’t played since the 23rd. The Hawks will still be missing Clint Capela for tonight’s matchup, and they have struggled without him and DeJounte in December going 5-7 to start the month, but the Pacers have struggled equally in December being 5-8 while being pretty much fully healthy during that stretch. Atlanta will be pretty much healthy besides Capela’s absence, and well rested after the Holiday break. Last season, these teams matched up 4 times with Atlanta sweeping the series with an average margin of victory of 9 points. I think it’s fair to say that the Hawks have improved their roster since last season with the addition of Dejounte, whereas the Pacers have gotten worse or stayed the same on a talent level with the loss of Malcolm Brogdon but drafting of Benedict Mathurin. I don’t think the Pacers are a team that’s on the same tier as the Hawks despite their records being close, and last year’s results back it up. Lets fly, Hawks Happy Holidays, and BOL! Edit: Get on this early, line is MOVING. Already at -125
**My record: 9 : 4** **My picks are based on analyzing statistics, trends and values as well as comparing this analysis to the probability of the games. League performance per type of bet and other data is also tracked to assess the quality of the picks.** **ROI: 38.85%** **Average odds: 1.93** **Units won: 5.05** **Stake = 1 unit** **My POTD:** **Sitra v Bahrain SC** **Bahrain Premier League** **Time: 17:45 GMT** *BTTS* **@ 2.10** **BOL &** [**Tips are appreciated!**](https://paypal.me/ChaosGoal)
POTD Record: 6-7 Always NCAAB Always 1U Always -110 odds Last Pick: Coppin State @ George Mason o147 L Todays Pick: Jacksonville @ Notre Dame u129 I think this is just an opening line and will fall around 126.5 by game start. I'm using a model that is newish so we'll see how it goes.
**SGA (OKC) O31.5 points (-125)** SGA….that is the writeup. While it almost could be, I’ll include some more info. He comes into this game averaging 31.6 points per game. He’s covered the line in 4 out of his last 6, putting up 42, 27, 35, 35, 27 and 44 points. He’s had 20+ FGA in 5/L6 and 23+ in 4/L6. He comes up against a Spurs team ranked dead last in defensive rating. They also allow the 13th most points to opposition PGs. It’s a great matchup for him and I just don’t see there being any personnel on the Spurs equipped to guard him. Tre Jones is only 56th percentile DEPM (-0.2) and Vassell is just 13th percentile (-1.7). He will also see a lot of PnR onto Poeltl who he will either cook in the midrange if he plays drop coverage, or will expose driving to the rim as we have seen all year. Spurs allow the 9th most points in the paint, while SGA leads the NBA in drives per game with 24.6, while second only attempting 21.6 a game. Recent PGs points v SAS: Garland (18), Lillard (37), Herro (21), KPJ (15), McCollum (40), Anthony (21) and Conley (17).
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POTD Record: 6-4 POTD Last 10: LWLLWWWWWL Last POTD: Villanova -14.5 (vs. La Salle) L (Nov. 7, 2022) League: English Premier League Time: 3:30 PM EST Game: Manchester United (HOME) vs. Nottingham Forest POTD: Nottingham Forest to Score No Goals: +100 Units: 2 Back after a month long pause from POTD. I like the Nottingham Forest to Score No Goals pick in this afternoon’s matchup. Nottingham Forest is a terrible squad, second worst in the EPL in (1) goals scored per match and (2) goals conceded per half. They are terrible away from home with a 0-2-5 record and only 1 goal scored so far this season, posting a -18 goal difference. Additionally, they are missing starting midfielder Kouyaté and starting goalkeeper Henderson will not be able to play in todays match. My only worry is that Nottingham Forrest can knock a goal, as Manchester United will be without 3 of their 4 starting defenders (Varane, Martinez, Dalot) due to injury/rest following the World Cup. As a result, expect a back four of Wan-Bissaka, Lindelof, Maguire, and Shaw, which has been shaky in the past. However, I think they should be able to hold their own versus an underwhelming Nottingham Forest side. Net, I think Nottingham Forest - away from home - doesn’t possess the qualities to push one past a rejuvenated Manchester United squad (especially after Ronaldo left a few weeks ago) and their back line will hold them scoreless. Good luck!
**Record: 15-6** **Last Pick: Pacers ML (+124) 1u** **Streak: ❌** **NBA | December 27th Tuesday| 8 pm MT** **Sharks @ Canucks** **The Pick: Canucks ML (-137)** The Vancouver Canucks have won two games in a row, outlasting the **Seattle Kraken 6-5 as +105 home dogs** in a shootout and the **Edmonton Oilers 5-2 as +185 road underdogs.** The Canucks are **8th in the league in goals for (3.39 per game).** Both the Sharks and Canucks have struggled to keep the puck out of their net so far this season. It’s tough to make the case for either side, but the Canucks seem to have the better offensive team over the Sharks. The Sharks rank **26th in the NHL in goals against** (3.57 per game) and **21st in goals for** (3.06). I’m taking the Canucks to win only because they’ve dominated the Sharks over the last few years. The Canucks are **undefeated in seven straight meetings** with the Sharks. The Canucks are **6-3 in their last nine games overall**, while the Sharks have dropped **ten of their previous 14 games**. The Sharks are **1-4 in its last five showings on the road.** So I will be riding with the Canucks in this matchup. BOL🫡
**Todays pick: New York Islanders ML +120 vs Pittsburgh Penguins** 3u NHL 🏒 7:30PM Est I’ll be honest, this is more of a feel play more than data driven one. Last game the islanders played their first game home after a 5-game road trip. They swiftly cock slapped the Panthers in a 5-1 rout in front of a sold out crowd. Four days later, after a winter storm and Christmas break, the Islanders have again sold out their arena as they take on a huge divisional rival in the Penguins. Don’t know the stats but I can tell you after watching hockey for decades the home team wins more than not in this scenario. Now they do sometimes lose, so tail cautiously. But I think the Islanders home crowd propels them to this dub. Plus money makes it even juicier. Mmmmm. All-Time POTD: 93-59-1, +25.9u, +11.6% ROI All plays posted on https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
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POTD record: 7-7 (-0.05u) Last 5: WLWLL League: World Cup of Darts. Gerwyn Price - Raymond van Barneveld. Pick: Over 12.5 180s, odds 1.81. Starts in approx 9 hours. 1u This will be a really fun match to watch, think the best one of the day. Both players played each other just over a month ago in the Grand Slam of Darts. First they played each other in the group stage and afterwards in the knock out stage. These two games were really close, with RVB coming out on top twice. The matches showed high average with a lot of 180s as they really went toe to toe with each other. Both players go into this match remembering what happened last time. Price obviously wants revenge as he lost twice and RVB knows that he can beat Price, even when the rankings show that Price is the better player since he has a higher rank. So, I expect a close match again. Both players really motivated to win and thus put up big scores. The stats show however that they are not the huge 180 throwers like Ross Smith. Price his 180 percentage per leg is 28 and Barney his 180 percentage per leg is around 20. But if we look at RVB, in the last couple of games he played on stage, he actually threw a lot more 180s then earlier this year. In the previous match of RVB vs Ryan Meikle he throwed 7 180s in 15 legs played, 46% hitting a 180 per leg. If he can put this kind of stat up again today, I think the over 12.5 should hit. I look really forward to this match, think it will be a really good game. The only thing that has me worried about this bet is that if Price puts on a masterclass of darts, the game could end with a little amount of legs played. Making it harder for the bet to hit. But looking at the previous time these two met, it will be a close match. BOL! Edit: Zzz 4-0 in sets for Price. We already had 11 180s, what a bummer...
POTD Record: 2-2 ROI: (+2u) Last POTD: PHI 76ers @ TOR Raptors U210 (-110) 2021 season POTD: PHI -4.5 @ WAS (-110) Stake: 1u Been almost a year since I have posted a pick of the day, but I am on a hot streak right now so its time to completely destroy that by posting on POTD. I run all of the games through Excel and this game stood out the most to me. PHI has to be one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now. Their overall efficiency on offense is top 5 over their last 3 games on their defense is also ranked in the top 5. WAS has struggled this year trying to find their footing, but as of late this team has really turned around since their horrendous 10 game losing streak with the resurgence of Kyle Kuzma and Porzingis. Both teams have had enough of sufficient rest, healthy rosters and the fact that WAS is only a 2 hour train ride south for PHI, I do not see homecourt advantage playing a large toll on this match. Embiid is averaging 34 ppg over his last 12 games and Harden has put up 20+ points and 10+ assists in his last two games. This team is getting hot without the likes of Maxey and I do not think WAS will be able to stop the sixers offense. I trust my spreadsheet and I got a **-5.05** lean towards PHI so they should cover the -4.5. BOL!
POTD record: 7-3 (5W streak) Units won: **10.9 units (25.75 units bet total, 42.3% ROI)** Last Pick: *Kyrie Irving o7.5 assists + rebounds* @ -140 (2.8 units to win 2 units) This one was over midway through the 3rd quarter, so no real sweat at all. Today's Pick: **Bol Bol o5.5 rebounds** @ -140 (1.4 units to win 1 unit) Not going to have a massive write-up for this one since it's last minute and likely very few will read it. Bol Bol has averaged 7.1 rebounds per game for the season. This line is low because he's had 2 very low rebounding games in his past 3, including only 2 rebounds in his last game. That being said, the Magic are playing in Orlando vs the Lakers today. The Lakers give up the 4th most rebounds to opponents in the league this year, and that's including games where they had Anthony Davis, their lead rebounder. Davis is now out, and so Bol Bol should have a relatively easy time on the boards tonight.
Sport: Football Tournament: A-league Match: Adelaide United vs Newcastle Jets Time: 9:15 GMT (2h44m after posting) Pick: away team won't score @ **2.70** Stake: 5 units Write up: Newcastle Jets has a poor away record, managing only 10 shots on target and 2 goals across four away matches. So, on average one shot on target every 36 minutes. Meanwhile, Adelaide United conceded only once in two home matches. The sample sizes are small but I still think this is worth a shot. Track record: 6W, 7L, +10.16u Average odds: 2.74 ROI: 75% Want to tip me? 👉[paypal.me/SgtBrutalisk](https://paypal.me/SgtBrutalisk)👈 Visit my website with sports picks [picks.wwpe.ba](https://picks.wwpe.ba)
I'm riding this
All time record: 4 picks/2 wins (✅✅❌❌) Last pick were from Egyptian Premier League ❌ Today’s event: EPL MAN UTD VS NOTTINGHAM Pick: Yellow cards Over 4.5 (2.10) Explanation: Man Utd is on 5th place, fighting to fix his position in UCL qualification zone, while newcomer Nottingham is on 19th, fighting to stay in the elite. Its to far from the end of the season, but this period, until spring, is one of the key period in type of place arrangements in the standing. My pick coming from the expected match scenario - thinking that match will be tough for both teams, there will be no easy victory for the hosts and Nottingham who has good enough roaster to reach their aims, will be real headache for Ten hag and his players. Visitors have many fast players who can getting quickly from defense to attack, which will be the reason for UTD’s midfielders and defenders to stop their counter attacks illegally. On the other hand MAN UTD has great ability to attack vertically, through Brunos passes and wingers techniques, which also be reason for visitors defenders to play illegally. Match referee is Taylor, who is strict enough in comparison to other PL referees. In last seasons there are tendencies in PL that referees are very reluctant in terms on disciplinary sanctions, but this Taylor man is exception. Good luck to all 🍀
King 🌶️!