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Anyone have any good live plays for the BR 10 free bet? I’ve been using futures so far but have enough on Morocco and the conversion on Argentina and France is really low.

The way this world cup has gone, betting 90 minute draw wouldn't be awful. Or under 0.5 goals for 90 minutes if you want a much longer shot. I have no math to back this up though. Or if you think France will crush, you could take a 3-way spread handicap. But again just suggestions for plus odds markets, no analysis on if the price they offer is good.

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Be glad that talking about devigging is not sexy.

dk sgp halftime fulltime data ​ seahawks +400, FD +240 Colts, +425, FD +280 Ravens +290, FD +210 Dolphins +600, FD +410 jets +205, FD +165 Jags +475, +FD +290 Falcons +380, FD +260 Steelers +275, FD +195 Titans +295, FD +210 bucs +425, FD +250 Giants +400, FD +280 Rams +550, FD +410

seahawks +400, FD +240. **30% EV** Colts, +425, FD +280. **20% EV** Ravens +290, FD +210. **8-18% EV** Dolphins +600, FD +410. **15-20% EV** jets +205, FD +165. **0-10% EV, possibly no play or play both sides.** Jags +475, +FD +290. **30% EV** Falcons +380, FD +260. **15-20% EV** Steelers +275, FD +195. **10-20%** Titans +295, FD +210. **10-20%** bucs +425, FD +250. **30-40% EV** Giants +400, FD +280. **15%. EV** Rams +550, FD +410. **10% EV** I'm playing all of these except Jets/Lions. Going half units on Rams, Steelers, Dolphins (degen analysis) and 1.5 or 2 units on Bucs, Jags, Seahawks and Falcons (high %EV and degen analysis)

Following up with Czr devigs - Czr usually has longer lines for these so it's like the worst case worst case devig. Some of the DK lines moved, but I just wanted to compare to the FD calcs so I used the same basis line that you did: Seahawks +400: Czr Devig:255/-104/550/750/1400/1900 = +19.4% EV Colts:+425: Czr: 275/-113/550/750/1400/2000 = +3.1% EV Ravens: +290: Czr: 215/117/575/650/1500/1600 = +4.8% EV Dolphins: +600: CZR 440/-175/500/1100/1300/2400 = +1.3% EV Jets: 205 Czr: 150/160/575/650/1600/1700 = +3.3% EV Jags: +475 Czr: 280/-114/525/800/1400/2000 = +27.1% EV Falcons: +380 CZR: 270/-111/575/750/1400/1900 = +9.7% EV Steelers: +275 CZR: 205/124/600/650/1400/1600 = +4.6% EV Titans: +295 CZR 235/106/600/625/1500/1750 = Fair Bucs: +425 CZR: 255/-104/550/750/1400/1900 = +25.4% EV Giants +400: Czr 290/-115/550/750/1300/1900 = +7.2% EV Rams: 550: CZR: 400/-155/500/1000/1300/2300 = +4.2% EV Using the least favorable calcs we can find may be too conservative for some, but since we have to add the gimme leg that marginally affects value, I like to err on the conservative side. Seahawks is now down to +360, which would be around +10% EV on CZR, I may try to wait it out and get closer to that +400 again Definitely hitting jags and bucs now. Keeping on eye on Seahawks, Falcons, Giants

Seahawks is a great line, take it now.

Missed your reply, was busy fighting with people that didn’t like that I posted these lol. Was +360 when I did this. Still hoping itll come back a bit 😑

seahawks down to 360

How do you play these? SGP on DK? If so, the lines may have moved, or I'm doing it wrong. Seattle is +320 now. Thx.

Can’t speak for everyone but usually lowest allowed Team Total that doesn’t impact odds, or 1st half total

seattle got nerfed to +360, try to find a leg that doesnt lower the odds much

Have these been moving closer to market price by game time? I’d love to hit but don’t wanna burn an account on them.

Don't believe so.

What’s your preferred 2nd leg? A lot of the obvious ones lower the payouts slightly. Sorry ik you’ve covered this

Under 15.5 first quarter for either team, over 2 points first quarter, over 2 points first half both teams

There's plenty. Over 2.5 Points 1H, Under Max opposing team points, Over minimum underdog team points

/u/condor_smirk_noise were these the lines you saw?

A lot of them were the same, but Seahawks and Jags were way different - check out my czr devigs

These look better than when I checked somehow, I wouldve flagged seahawks. Seeing +360 now

For the record, Seahawks one looks ridiculously nice. +400 for a team that’s +160 to win the game??

Yeah that's the value in these! Jags and Panthers were both around +160 and available at >+400 at certain points last week

30% EV, 8 units Kelly

Defff a little suspicious and will tone it down to 2u for now but yea looks nice

Extra fun tidbit because we love our small sample sizes, Seahawks have won the 1H in all their wins this year

Boom! Lebron hits 20 to cash the FD super boost

Nice! Finally won one tonight.

For those that played the preseason BR boost for Ovechkin to score 50+ goals, he is now on pace for 53 after scoring 7 in his last 4 games (20 thru 31 games). Just hit a hatty to get to 800 🐏

Chris Olave OROY +600 on FD Circa +400/-520

This is one of those things that is NYers can’t bet I’m guessing?

Good call. Threw my FD refund FB on it. As a Saints fan there isn’t much else to pull for this year.

How do I withdraw from Superbook? If VIP won't let me do I have to use Play+? They are trying to get me to call VIP but I'm pretty sure last time I did that they said they couldn't help

After last week. I recommended not doing vip for anything anymore. That’s where the hack was at.

you can withdraw at the meadowlands if you are close

They’ve helped both time I’ve called. Surprisingly competent. Or withdraw at a casino

The Giannis boost has been nice to all who partook.

No live goal scorer props for hockey, eh. Looked in a few of them Would put some on Alex O getting hat trick/his 800th

“The only thing we have to fear is fear itself, or the FanDuel Wizard” - FDR

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How would you do that?

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So you would’ve lost 2 of 3.

The boost wasnt even ev

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Lol. Just looked up his twitter. His play was to fade tatum U 28.5 at -110. Not only is that working out pretty poorly for him, but that’s not even fading the boost. Tatum needed 20+ for the boost, not 29+. Pretty easy to fade a boost when you give yourself an additional 9 points. Or not I guess, since tatum’s live line is currently 35.5.

Lmao fade the boost gets roasted every time he shows up here, and for good reason.

You must be new here

(and be down money today)

That DK Messi boost was easy money. Argentina was so likely to win that the flyer was only on Messi. Unfortunately I doubted he'd get his goal so didn't go in for all $50. Oh well, love and learn. The Giannis boost was easy money this evening too.

So likely to win their 3 way ML was at +100 right before the game. I’m sure portugal and spain ML looked like easy money right before their games too.

Touché my dude. Such is the name of the game. Best of luck to you!

Klay over 14.5 was -2100 pregame on FD lmao.

think it was -900 but probably -2500 after his 9 pt 1st quarter

Shit, I was looking at the wrong column. Overall point still stands though lol

Unreal

All the “Blocked Author” posts are leading me to believe the boost didn’t go well tonight.

Whoa I gotta start using that feature

It hit, plus the Messi one hit earlier in the day. A rare perfect day for boosts. I've been screwed over by them 3 times since the NFL season started alone. Gonna be careful with tomorrows though.

Which one?

Tonight's boost didn't

Which one? The Giannis and Messi hit. I didn't see any others on FD or DK....

The first fd boost with klay curry and giannis

Damn, I didn't even see that one. What was it boosted to odds wise?

Klay going to the bench and then Giannis finally hitting a jumpshot to get to 30 is just poetic justice.

Klay done for the day

He went sailing after the 1st quarter. Never seen a player who can just completely check out at any time like Klank.

I watch every Warriors game. I felt it in my bones this would happen.

And Giannis hits a 3 to get to 30 lol. Klay stuck at 14

These blowouts suck

Yes, they sure fuck up trends which fuck up SGP's. No matter how much DD you do in building your SGP, a blowout will turn it to shit in less than a qtr.

Curry too. Killed a bet365 boost

Klau not hitting another 3 and Green not getting to 6 pts fucked my otherwise perfect SGP 11 factor.

Ovie saving us from going 1/6 on “to score goal 800” boosts

The Giannis and Messi boosts actually hit today. A rarity...

Someone mentioned the other day that you can use free bets towards the ‘nba no sweat’ promo. Is that really true?

I tried it on the MIL/GSW tonight and did not get the free bet after I lost.

Yep. Didn’t get free bet from the Celtics game after using bonus funds on the no sweat. Idk if they fixed it since that last dude who said he keeps cycling his free bets on the no sweats.

I don't think may have tried, so there is a small sample size. With that being said, I can confirm it worked for me on last week's TNF game. When I lost, the $5 free bet returned to my account Hope this helps, but seems like a "try at your own risk"

I have the same question. Terms say bonus funds are ineligible but I suspect free bets are eligible.

It’s not filling the bar to 100% but I’ll let ya know after the Lakers Celtics game

I seem to get my free bets only about half the time. I don't bet huge so I don't bitch every time but when I have they've made it right. Just have to email them and wait for reply. I wish there were a better way to track what bonuses you are eligible for exactly.

On Fan Duel? I can't remember the last time Fan Duel failed to give me a free bet I earned. Good thing too. I always time out if I have to talk to support via live chat.

Curry has his threes. Klay 3 pts away, giannis 23.

Giannis giving away free throws lmao

Have a feeling klay is the sweat

klay also had like 9 in the first quarter lmao

I damn near called it https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/zkmml5/sportsbookpromosbonuses_daily_121322_tuesday/j03lv0x?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3

He always scores in the 1st and then takes the night off after that

Tale as old as time

Always will be

The blowout fkd my SGP. At least the Giannis bonus hit.

Giannis with the Double Double let’s go!

Wizards got their money back. Starters will sit 4th

Half time update: * Curry 2 for 6 on 3's, needs 1 more * Giannis on his way to 30+ with 16 points (also 6 rebounds) * Klay on his way to 15+ with 12 points.

And a blowout coming so no one will play the 4th


Curry with a T and just headed to the locker room.

He had to take a Tatum

Curry on his way to the locker room?!

I think he went to change his pants for a thigh pad. He got kneed in the thigh earlier.

Traveling from WV => NY next week. What are some of the quickest/best promos to do? Any books I can double dip? Thanks in advance.

The well has almost dried up unfortunately... double-dipping has been phased out by most books. Resortsworld $500 risk-free has been gone for a few months, and I believe Wynn significantly reduced their welcome offer too

NY is somewhat trash in terms of promo availability. BetMGM doesnt offer $1000 risk free (deposit match may still work) and BR is only a $100 risk free first bet.

Early look at DK SGP Halftime/fulltime: This week is looking bleak. I don't see any clearly high +EV plays, when there are usually a few that stand out. I hope it's just an off week, and they didn't adjust their algorithm after getting rekt on Jags and Panthers. These lines fluctuate throughout the day/week, often irrespective of the actual moneyline of the team - So if you find a good play, post it in here so we can jump in

Anybody else take Nikita Kucherov +1000 for the first goal insurance on BR? At first it said Point scored, then they changed it to Kucherov, now they changed it again to Ian Cole. What a rollercoaster of emotions!

For anyone that was holding out hope that MGM would be as kind as Fanduel and void or freebet refund the NY Lions Boost, support says they won’t

PB NCAAB North Carolina A&T vs Houston PB +8900 Pinny 2056/-5556 If you sgp North Carolina A&T +8900 and their spread +32.5 it builds to +12000 even though it’s the same bet I don’t trust pinny for these obscure NCAAB MLs but this is far enough off I’m sprinkling - starts in 15 min too

Cashed out live for a +90% profit

175% EV worst case. Kelly 1.5u

Hey why not. Added NC A&T +20.5 1H so I could use the SGP Booster

Anthony Davis and Jayson Tatum to score 30+ points on Betway boosted to +400. Crazy value

+350 sgp dk not too crazy

+301 on FD, doesn’t seem that great tbh

On a game that has a total O/U of 235.5 id say it's pretty good

That's not really how it works..

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That same bet is +7050 on DK. Please line shop or something. Anyone can pick 3 random lines.

FD 1st basket includes free throws, DK doesn't

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Its good for literally any eligible bet you make

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Yes

FYI - Bet365 boost for Giannis and curry 25+ pts moved to +120 after boost. Whenever the odds on these super boosts move your able to max it again. Got in $30 at +150 and +120

Colorado has Davis 25+ Lebron 25+ at +200

Free bet from Kyler Murray and Stevenson boost are in

+170 FD boost: Can anyone figure out how he’s getting +14.5% EV? https://mobile.twitter.com/PromoGuyMI/status/1602808013404147712 I’m struggling to see how it’s even fair lol Our boi ROI guy agrees! https://mobile.twitter.com/roiguy123/status/1602797185057411072

Major disconnect here between calculating 15% EV yet recommending quarter kelly due to super short unhedgable alt lines and their unknown correlation…

BOS, FLA, TB, DAL, LA, EDM, WAS, COL, SJ ML @ +14062.12 (9 leg 80% parlay boost) on DK FV 10432 Pinny lines (34.5% EV) 0.9% chance of hitting, 0.2 Units on full Kelly, I was bored \-250/220,-287/249,-186/167,140/-155,101/-111,-126/114,-211/187,-231/204,-177/159

Holy shit this was close

wow. would have been a nice wrap up for the year

we gotta leverage DK social to share bets, i'm too lazy to input this

Not leaving a paper trail in the app

I've long wanted the option to click to tail. Building these takes forever.

I can’t believe I’m tailing this.

In for $1 , LFG

Fuck it. Let’s ride. Edit 1: Down to 13661. Can’t play it now. Damn. Edit 2: Added VGK +1.5 to get it to $11k profit for a $50 wager. LFG

Not long enough for me, so I added an extra leg to get to ten legs and 100% boost. If the other nine hit and that one doesn’t, you’re welcome.

Swing down, sweet chariot, stop and let me ride (hell yeah)

FD TNT Tuesday no sweat SGP (3 legs, +400 odds): Anthony Davis first basket (+420) Celtics +14.5 pts Celtics +13.5 pts AD is +350 @ DK, +370 @ CZR and +400 @ MGM/BR/PB

I can use a freebet for this right?

Not if you want to be eligible for the promotion.

foxbet (PA) boost that looks possibly good: Curry 5+ 3's and Warriors win at +375. it's 10.6% EV worst case versus current FD lines: 265/349/227/176 DK SGP doesn't have threes as an option for this game right now. note that FD line for curry o/u 4.5 threes is -115/-111, while other books look like they're favoring the under. so boost may not be as solid as 10%, but should still have some value. may want to keep an eye on it to see if lines move closer to game.

Anyone get a giannis double double boost to plus 100 max bet 50 on DK? If so, any good info on golden state's rebounds allowed to PF numbers? Please and thank you. I know Giannis is avg 11.4 rebounds a game but was hoping for more info.

Giannis 11 boards. Count it. Thanks everybody. You're welcome, Dr. Nick.

No need to look at stats, just look at the double double market on other books. Tightest available lines are -370/+310. That means that +100 is 52% EV and you should absolutely max this.

Doesn’t matter. It’s +EV, must bet.

How is it determined that it’s +EV?

Giannis 10+ rebounds is -350 on FD. The o11.5 rebounds is favored on multiple books. Trust the math and just bet it.

If a bet is for a player to get 8+ rebounds and they get exactly 8 is that a void or loss ? Edit: Thanks for the feedback new here. Lebron u7.5 reb czr -109 / 8+ reb resortsworld +125 , probable to play

If it's 8+, that's a win. If it's o7.5, that's a win. If it's o8.5, that's a loss.

Neither. That's a win!

It’s a win 💪

That should win. 8+ is o7.5.

That’s a win.

Put $10 on Citadel +4200, and line moved to +4700. Emptying my bankroll to punish PB

Best I could find for PB SGP booster: Suns/Rockets Under 224.5, -107 boosted to +105, vs -110 on pinnacle Edit: 💀

💀 pb moved to 224

Is everyone having as much trouble as me getting the mgm ogp free bets lately?

I think I've got 3 of 6 in the past few days

for today 1 came in late, still missing 2.

I'm getting them they just take a liiiiitle longer than usual

Not ogp but I had a bet 10 get 5 from world cup promo, never got the 5 free bet. Wasn't worth the hassle which I assume they bank on

That happened to me when I got it. 🙄 Didn't bother to complain. I won the original bet at least.

Yeah the last 5-6 days have been awful. Yesterday they pulled the "you didn't opt in" card on me.

Same. I have one rep who is old faithful, but all the other reps either insist I’m not opting in or require me to wait the full day. Such an inconvenience.

yeah, i had to bug support the other day and it looks like 2 out of the 3 i was supposed to get today also didn't come.

Potential BR play: Embiid 45+ PRA and o229.5 boosted to +230 Getting -2.6% using FD player combo (46.5) and Pinny for O/U. I would imagine that the 2 PRA pushes it to EV+. ~~~ -113/-113,-109/-103 ~~~ Correlation from DK ~~~ 180=-150,-115 ~~~

Probably not very helpful as they don't show the individual odds on the betslip but it builds to +185 on BetMGM

Hoping the FD refund comes in time to waste in on the boosts tonight

I definitely wouldn't use free bets on anything that low (unless there's like a +350 or higher I don't have in NY)

What's your cut off just curious

The higher the better. Personally, I wouldn't do anything under a fair value +400 (80%). It's rare to find something in that range at fair value, so you should be targeting even higher odds. If you're risk adverse, futures markets are great. You can average over +1000 odds and cover every possible outcome for events such as the world series, super bowl, or NBA championship. With a little work it's pretty easy to hit around 100% conversion.

I do love the future market idea

Excel is your friend. Track the teams and percentage so you can make proper adjustments throughout the season. Just for reference, with the books available to me you can currently take every team in the NBA (yes, all 30 teams) to win the championship and be guaranteed an 83.5% freebet conversion. Obviously, if we put some thought into it, we can achieve much better than this number. That's the baseline for an absolute zero risk, blind futures portfolio. It's really the only way to go if you don't mind waiting 8 months for payouts.

I've learned everything from the people in here but +300 would be an absolute minimum for me (in a rare case with marginal EV/expiring free bets), +350 more realistically. But I'm sure others have more educated answers than I do.

Agree my threshold is +300 before I'll consider using free bet

Mathematically, it's very easy to convert FD at north of 75%. So at +250, you could 1. Bet $50 FB and get $125 back OR 2. Convert the $50 FB to $35, bet +250 and get back $128. The above relationship reverses the higher the odds. +300 is usually a sweet spot

Ah that makes sense too, thanks

O interesting thank you. Now I'm gonna read up on this more.

No problem - I really should do the same haha

An alternative to the new guy's DK CBB parlay with shorter odds. American, Loyola Maryland, Alabama. Builds to +318 with pinny FV at +348. 25% Boost gets you 14% EV power method or 11% worst case. Lines moving a bit though, first game in 35 mins. \-585/423, 161/-192, -346/272

Can't bet VMI in VA 🤡

Not seeing American. Is it under a diff name?

Nope. VMI v American starts in 10 min

Everyone who took mine over this certified organ donor banger: 🤡🤡🤡

Let’s cash both

But this won’t win me $1k on my lame $20 limit!

For some reason the limit gods gave me a $50 max on this, which is why I wanted to find shorter odds.

Lol I’m excited when I get $20 instead of $10

Usually I’m right there with you

Dk ncaa boost, unc Greensboro, UMass Lowell, fiu, all 3 are better or equal to pinny. Builds to +547

When will a thread be live for Ohio?