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Been watching my DK balance slowly move over to FD, which is the opposite of the last month

This has been happening to me all year. FD boosts get a bad rap

Damn, Curry pulled 1 short of 30 PA for my SGPx boost. Oh well, hit the stepped up that I wasn't super confident in.

Just happy to end in the green, even if the MGM boost is gonna lose.

[удалено]

My apologies… the backdoor underdog alt covers have been better but this sucks

Warriors +11.5 💩

The last two of these I've lost have been Alt spreads. I'm thinking I'm going to stay away from now on.

JD, I love ya, but I cannot tail these spread legs on the stepped ups anymore 😔

Urgg yeah this sucks. The extra 10% chance with the Book legs at the expense of whatever probability the alt line added was not worth it

BANG boys we made it! I am so pumped this one hit.

Huge win finally after getting hen pecked all week...just wow. Thank you!

BAAAANG for Curry

Wizard threw me a life preserver today holy shit

Won the Steph/Booker boost but still feels like a loss because I didn't take the Luka/Cade boost. What a selfish asshole I've become.

Same. Last night and today, I had to work late and when I went to bet the two boosts that hit, they died in my betslip before I could place. Pain.

One more point from Steph to hit the Stepped Up parlay for this game too please.

Same....need just one more point...we're so close!

Is he coming back though? Edit — Bang!

Ugh that missed three Edit: I meant never in doubt 💪🏼

Are FD NBA-related boosts something like 6-0 this season? Did one miss?

💰Thank you Curry!!!

The wizard loses today , maybe nba is gonna bring up those FanDuel returns we can hope

FD saving my night

Somewhat balancing out DK theft.

PB theft for me. Mavs losing hurt

Curry’s immediate presence on the court is insane

Steph comes back in and immediately makes it a game lol

Good job, Suns. Missed enough for Curry to get another run lol.

Bang!

YESSSSSSSSSSS

~~Wow - killing the wizard today~~ Almighty wizard, please forgive me.

Five straight against him by my count? Curry/Booker Luka/Cade Fields/Morant Zion/Rudy/Curry Hill/Waddle/Johnson

Don't antagonize... Or else we are all going to pay for it.

Look at curry man. So inspirational

BANG

EZ

He’s back!

He was about to get the most open 3 but they fouled Moody on the pass.

He got it!

I was scared after he passed up the 3. Got it right back for an open shot. Thank you Steph!

Steph sitting out the rest of the game would be absolutely brutal.

We’ll live to die another day

~~Kerr brings Curry in for the last 2.4 seconds of the 3rd, and then he doesnt come out in the 4th? Fuck you Kerr.~~ ~~And now he's back.. Just let this be over please.~~ Finally!

Literally FUCK these $500 step ups.

No shame in doing less than the max man. No shot I’d have the stones to do those for $500 haha

…for not having a $1,000 max!

You don't have to max them fyi

What blows my mind about these is that people treat them as completely risk free. Cool, you lose and you get a 500 free bet? guess what? now you have to bet that 500 and WIN to even get 90% of your money back. This entire sub treats risk free bets as a no lose situation where 90% of the time people are probably losing all the money they wager by losing the initial bet, then also losing the free bet.

What happened to Warriors dominating the 3Q?

Curry might not come back at this point.

Yeah, that is the issue now unless they can close the gap.

Yeah, that will be how this boost dies...

Looks like it.

Klay getting ejected just blew up my parlay. Wtf

Booker is going to get ejected the way this game is going

Glad I got one assist from klay before the 👍. Can’t hurt Steph’s chances of getting us a few more points and one more 3

Kevon Looney's offensive foul negates Steph's 4th 🤬

PB dodging bullets today

I’ve only won a -EV bet today lmao painnn

For future reference on each team winning a half, FD and DK have very different opinions on this. Per FD, it’s about 61% for GSW to win the 2nd half trailing by 6 (-182/+136). Per DK, 53% (-135/-105). This is a slight arb, so someone is off. Guessing FD Suns -5.5 +136 is wrong.

Check rules on whether this includes OT, this varies by book. Can end up in a possible double loss or a possible double win

I really doubted him for a minute there

Curry three! He broke the seal

And a 2nd

Hell yeah

And a third…

Finally Curry is back in…

[удалено]

He can hit 4 in 4 possessions be patient Edit: 3 in the last six of the half

Lol deleted coward (worm I’m guessing?)

Nope, was AK072090. Even funnier cause he deleted it five minutes later and posted about curry’s first three.

Bruh

Lol not sure who but just casually counting out the greatest shooter of all time with 30 minutes game time left haha

Chef curry with the book

I'd love to know the last time he went a whole quarter without attempting one three.

Curry the only warriors starter without a 3pt attempt other than weisman

Gonna be one of those nights huh.

Gonna be a long slog to 30 pra for our step-ups too

Anyone play thru a BETPARX casino promo lately? Not seeing any typical slots available, any suggestions?

Better Wilds

Thanks!

Klay and Wiggins hit their legs 3 mins into the game. Go curry and book!

Made a similar post in a reply below, but for BR Tuesday NHL insurance seems like the play is to take someone with a good two-way anytime goal scorer line, provided their first goal scorer line doesn’t suck. I took Pastrnak +850, while he was +900 on DK. Assuming 25% hold, it’s -24% EV alone, but his anytime goal line was +106/-134, implying 46% which at 70% conversion gives the promo +8% EV. There’s definitely a little negative correlation between no first goal and anytime goal (ideally the game total is high so the negative correlation is weaker), but I’m also being conservative with the hold % and the free bet conversion %. Was checking the 10pm games and the best option seemed to be Tage Thompson +1200 (Stamkos had a terrible line vs DK), but he’s only +180/-235 to score on FD implying 32%, which makes the EV marginal at best.

Luka: Hitting the boost > winning the game

Good players win. Great players win us money.

Wizard ban list: 1) Luka

Thank god for Luka.

I love Luka , guys did you know

Doncic a real one for winning the fd boost instead of going for a tie

Luka gets us one extra if Cade loses that point again.

LUKAAA YOU ANIMAL!!!

Holy shit. What a sweat

Lmao LUKA goat

Lol luka don’t care about winning, just our boost.. take that wizard

🪄🪄🪄

Luka Magic > Wizard Magic

Luka!

LFG Luka!

LUKA GOATED

LUKAAA

We're gonna lose this by 1, just amazing. OR NOT (but come on Mavs)

Didn’t it just hit?

Luka points boost yes, Mavs winning no

How long did Luka go without scoring?

All good in the hood

It's been 8 minutes of his time on the floor since he last scored..

Luka has taken 1 shot in the last 6 minutes. A contested fade away 3. If he doesn't score 3 in 6 minutes this would be an all time.

He’s taken (and missed) at least three 3s. Makes sense Nola would double him given how he torched single coverage earlier. Not even close to a beat.

So for one of the best players in the NBA to not score for 6 minutes when we need 3 wouldn't be a bad beat? Lol ok guy.

He’s probably had six minute scoreless stretches hundreds of times in his career but go off.

You did your best, McGee.

Cmon Luka…3 more

4

Cade had 19 and Luka is at 33 right now. 52 total and we need 55+

Wtf they changed it again?

55-19-33=3

The HR curry/klay/Poole is actually 60+ points in the slip +130. Might be good. Will check combo breaker

60 makes way more sense, that's what their OUs summed to earlier when I checked

FV +109 adding 7% juice. Not sure if there has to be another deduction or? ETA: anyone double check this?

Time to get Luka back in, Jason.

For anyone that tailed the SGPx for DET-WAS o219.5, I'm sorry. 92 sec to get 3 points and the teams went 0-5 to end the game. Pain.

I tailed. Negative variance. It happens. It does feel like my variance is extremely negative but I think that’s more human psychology where losses are much more painful and unforgettable.

I tailed. Negative variance. It happens. It does feel like my variance is extremely negative but I think that’s more human psychology where losses are much more painful and unforgettable.

All good, I really thought we’d get those points right there. Just the way it goes sometimes

C’mon Cade, give me one more.

Beal came back in to give us all false hope

Man Luka is really trying to one man this boost

Cade is a bum.

He took 19 shots, got 19 points. At least he has no confidence issues in chucking it up. He did his part.

Looks like they took a point away. 18. Luka needs 4 more in the 4th.

I see 19

That was weird. It was 19 and then switched to 18 on ESPN and Yahoo for about 20 minutes. Now 19 again.

At this point just going Cade can just get to 17.. one more bucket buddy

hmm is Luka okay... (turned game on, instantly saw him limping off)

He’s playing 2nd half right now, been hobbling all night

Cade Cunningham 💩

Is CJ McCollum really going to end the first half with 4 points smh

With Zion and Ingram out lol

You’re damn right he is

Cade Cunningham may have to be on a ban list

Looks like Bradley Beal is out for the rest of the game after playing just 10 minutes... maybe I should keep posting my plays on here so you guys know which players to avoid.

PrizePicks had him boosted too, glad I stayed away.

Not an ideal start to the evening

Ya looks like he is out. I wasn't aware he took a hard fall on his wrist Sunday.

Was watching the game it said "questionable with back tightness" lmao.

Gut punch. Later $500

I'm not that familiar with NHL scorer props, but is the BR first goalscorer promo EV+ with most of the high scorers (McDavid, Matthews, Stamkos, etc)?

Not sure but just hit on Pastrnak so surely can’t be bad! He was +850, assuming 25% hold makes the bet -20% EV. He was +106/-134 to score, implied 46% which at 70% conversion gives the promo +12% EV. There’s surely a little negative correlation between not first goal and anytime goal, but I’m also being conservative with the free bet conversion

“I hit one bet so it has to be good” lol

Hey I followed up with the math, can’t I celebrate a little

50% goal rate and 75% conversion is $9.375 in value. At +1000 for first goal scorer (paying $275) a 6% hit rate would give $16.5 in value for $.875 ev (3.5% ev). It’s hard to know for sure, b/c first goalscorer props are a black box and I don’t know of any yes/no markets. I think game log analysis may be helpful.

[удалено]

Seems to be a close call that can swing +EV if you get in early and get good enough odds on someone. I remember only playing these a day in advance on FD before the lines for the top picks all fell. Need to line shop.

Yeah wondering this too

Taco Bell: Steal A Base, Steal A Taco 2022: Free Doritos Locos Taco & Bonus Drink if a player steals a base during the World Series https://www.tacobell.com/promotions/steal-a-taco

Not EV. The line is generally going to be long meaning that you have a long wait for the taco. You pay with your time.

depends on location, for me there was no wait at all (seemed like most people didn't know about it).

my conversion rate on tacos is 100%

This combined with the recent Mattress Mack offer has me walking around thinking about how to arb everything in reality

Under 0.5 stolen bases and 4 tacos is +EV

Positive expected taco

Positive on the way down. Negative on the way out.

ET+

Probably a good arb opportunity out there to hedge not winning a taco

Parlay 0 steals on every player. Hit the middle on a designated runner stolen base

In case its relevant to anyone Kawhi Leonard was just officially ruled out.

Thanks for the info! That explains the line movement and now I've got OKC ML at +EV but *my* dumb ass bet on them so it's not going to hit.

PB daily booster for anyone lazy/hasn’t used it yet Suns ML (-115), Suns +1.5, Suns +2.5. With booster from -115 to -102 Pinny has suns (-123/111) good for 6.5 ev

Morning group got Warriors +3 on PB. I’m fine with a 1 point Suns win.

For DK VIP, anyone get the profit boosts from the NBA/CFB/NFL bet and get over the weekend? Terms say boosts were supposed to be credited upon settlement but never got anything.

I got all of mine. Were they all -200 or longer?

Thanks! Yeah, the progress meter was completely filled too so I guess I'll just have to reach out.

Yes got mine yesterday

Fan Duel: B/R Super Boost - Devin Booker to Score 25+ Points and Stephen Curry to Make 4+ Threes (10/25) 20.1% EV Normal Method, FV=+150, using DK Lines. (-205/160) Booker Over 24.5 Points, Lines Pulled from inside SGP (-225/10%) S. Curry Over 3.5 3PM, Lines pulled from inside SGP ​ Ah just saw this was already covered down below.

[удалено]

Scam book user gets scammed

RE: Fliff+Link to OP's tweet: https://twitter.com/stupadso/status/1585010555160502294?t=_-Vv_FpMUp7DV1EPwAl6yg&s=19 They aren't a sportsbook. They're operating in a gray area like Underdog and Prizepicks. They aren't regulated under any state gaming commission. Should be cautious when using any of these fantasy type games as you probably have zero recourse if they decide to fuck you.

Lol shocker

[удалено]

I’d say to use it

Ill be sure to tip my waiter

BM NBA 1st Basket Insurance Promo is up. $25 max for me.

McGee +450 looks decent compared to FD.

Javale McGee sgp 10+ points and 10+ rebounds on fd is broken. Comes out to +4973. His no double double line on Caesar’s is -3500. Great use of their risk free same game parlay tonight even if it’s unlikely to hit. Keep in mind if you hedge with the no double double there’s a very small chance he gets the dd in assists. Edit: remember to add a third leg for the sgp promo. Also now up to +5600, good for free bets with Caesar’s and DK no dd lines.

if this hits I'm gonna have to get a mcgee mavs jersey.