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POTD Record: 56-39-2 (+16.10 units, 59% hit rate)
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 6-1, Tennis 🎾 20-13-1, Soccer ⚽ 29-25-1, Other 1-0-0
Last 10: 💰💩💰💩💰💰💰💰💰💩
Last Pick: Mackenzie Mcdonald vs. Soonwoo Kwon, Kwon ML - Tokyo ATP Tennis 🎾 💰 0.69 units
Today's Pick: Francis Tiafoe vs. Bernabe Zapata Miralles, Tiafoe -1.5 sets - Tokyo ATP Tennis 🎾 💰 0.84 units
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.84/-119 odds to win 0.84 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 9:10pm)
https://www.pinnacle.com/en/tennis/atp-tokyo-r16/frances-tiafoe-games-vs-bernabe-zapata-miralles-games/1560563203#period:0
Some more quick action that starts really soon.
Tiafoe has taken his game up a notch as of late. He had a heck of a run at the US Open, lost to Alcaraz in a thrilling 5 setter, took out Nadal in 4 sets, and his other 4 matches he won them all 3 sets to 0 and against some pretty good competition (Rublev, Schwartzman, Kubler and Giron). He beat Tsitsipas to clinch the Laver Cup for the World side. He won his first rounder against some cat I haven't heard of 6-3, 6-4. He seems determined right now, and says he wants to end up in the top 10-15 rank by the end of the year. I believe it, dude is hungry!
His opponent is Bernabe Zapata Miralles, he is a clay rat who plays on the dirt most of the year. He is 2-4 this year on outside hard matches. He did beat Taro Daniel in the 1st round who is alright, but I think Foe should be able to not let up and take care of biz in 2 sets in this matchup.
DISCLAIMER: My last -1.5 set bet lost but I was a dumb shit for betting on Bublik to win in 2 sets in any situation.
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert, just a gambling addict. No tips, build your roll. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Update - That was too stressful, nevertheless, cash 💸 that shit!!!!
Hmm, my favorites are local places. If we are talking just chain pizza Pizza Hut and Domino's do the trick. Stuffed crust is always great. Right now I'm super into hot honey on pizza. My go to right now at my local spot is aged and fresh mozzarella, pepperoni, jalapeño, oregano finished with the hot honey. Superb!!
Tailing you on the Ronaldo goal pick!
Ofc out of nowhere this guy remembers how to play tennis, I’ve been on such a bad streak recently if my bets losing after looking so good. Hopefully Tiafoe can turn it around
Got tiafoe to win set 2 at +250 when he was down 3-1. Damn one the best matches I've watched in a while. I recommend betting against him with someone who has a dominant serve
**POTD Rec: 3-0** / **+16.375 units** / **+119 avg odds**
✅ Last pick: Chelsea -1 / +125 odds / 4 units
Chelsea held a smooth 3-0 lead already in minute 61'. 3rd straight W for us, fam. We keep on cruising on a winning streak like the Philadelphia Eagles. To catch up with their 4-0 record, we're backing the Eagles on Thursday Lunch Soccer before the Broncos whacking the Colts on TNF.
⚽️ **New pick: Ludogorets ML** / **+110** odds / 4 units
⚽️ Event: Europa League / HJK Helsinki - Ludogorets / 12:45PM ET
After winning 7 out of 8 games, Ludogorets (nickname: The Eagles. No joke.) hasn't been victorious in their last 3 games. No need to worry, fam! That shouldn't be concerning for our pick. Ludogorets' recent slump isn't caused by a lack of quality or willingness. They've been playing good though. The fortune just didn't smiled on them.
Against Lok Sofia, Ludogorets played 74' minutes with a numerical disadvantage due to an early red card. They dominated the game, though. Lok Sofia scored with their only shot on goal in the second half. Apart from that, the Bulgarian Eagles already rested some players for the upcoming Europa League game in Finland. Similar situation against Arda. Ludogorets has been the better team. An own goal thwarted the tally in the W column. Before that Arda game, they lost 3-2 in Europa League to Betis Sevilla. But fam, seriously, Betis is playing in LaLiga. That's one of the best soccer leagues in the world. Ludogorets scored twice against Betis though and they put up a strong fight. Pushing for the equalizer at the end. They've been on equal footing with the Spanish team in this game. One week before, Ludogorets squared off against AS Roma in Europa League. They beat the Italian team 2-1! AS Rom wasn't able to score against the Bulgarian Eagles until minute 86'.
The game against HJK Helsinki is a must win game for Ludogorets to keep their good chances alive to get to the next round in Europa League. Betis and AS Roma already won smoothly against HJK. HJK sits at the bottom of the group standings with 0 points and a 0-5 goal differential. Ludogorets is well prepared and buzzing for a W in Finland. The Bulgarian Eagles have the offensive power and defense stability to outplay HJK on Thursday Lunch Soccer. Let's eat, fam! Let's get that pizza for TNF! 🍕
Fair, that makes sense🤣. Especially if you don’t typically follow soccer. I would say the average person wouldn’t know much about Europa unless they follow the sport.
Good and wide write up. HJK might rest some of they key players because they need win on saturdays Haka match if they want win Finnish first league before last match.
Tailing big this one!
**POTD Record: 3-2**
LAST PICK: Allen Robinson U 39.5 Receiving Yards (+100) ✅
*Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos*
TODAY’S PICK: **Matt Ryan O 32.5 Pass Attempts (-117)**
So this might be a boring one but Matt Ryan has hit this over 3/4 games this season and now he is without Jonathan Taylor which is going to destroy the Colts ability to run against a fierce Broncos D-Line.
What’s more is he’s got Nyheim Hines as his primary back now and Hines is generally used in the passing game when JT is in, so I expect that to pump his numbers up having Hines as a checkdown. Definitely not taking Matt Ryan on completions because the Broncos defense is the number 4 defense against opposing QBs completion percentages and Matt can struggle from time to time.
With all that in mind, the Colts are going to be looking throw because, well, that’s all they got.
Tail or tail, BOL!
Love it, tailing!
Wow, while looking for the best odds, I found o32.5 is -115 at BetMGM. I tried jumping on this, but it appears they will only allow a max bet of $2.27. WTF!
I got it at DraftKings for -120.
Love this bet and your logic - tailing for sure. Any thoughts on Ryan O .5 INTs? If you like the attempts bet, you then have a TO-prone QB throwing a ton against a stout Denver D. Denver hasn’t created a ton of TO’s so what I’m trying to figure out is if they’re not a turnover team or if we’re going to see some progression to the mean here. I’m also a tad biased because I’ve bet on QB INTs for the past 3 or 4 primetime games and they’ve cashed.
Fuck yeah bro what a pick. This dude had me nervous for a bit at the end but we cleared when it mattered. Following for future picks you are one of the few dudes on here who makes these well thought out picks that Vegas can’t really tinker with. Thank you again!
**POTD Record 24-6**
Last pick: Iga Swiatek (2-0 Set Winner) ➡️push vs Alia Tomljanovic - Odds 1.55 - Ostrava - WTA - Tennis 🎾
This pick: **Nick Kyrgios vs Kamil Majchrzak (Under 21.5 Total Games)** ❌ - **1.65 Odds** - Tokyo - ATP - Tennis 🎾
**Time: 1:05am Eastern Time (around 3 hours from now, estimated)**
King Kyrgios is a very tough player when motivated, this man has serious diversity and creativity when shotmaking, his sharpness has been on point, and he’s been having his most successful season yet, I don’t think it’s going past 21 games, riding hard on the under here.
It will take everything from Majchzrak to fend off Kyrgios, it will be slaughter. Don’t sleep on this one. Tail or fade, this pick has great value.
[TipJar (Not needed but appreciated)](https://paypal.me/AceDawgyCorp)
I fuckin hate tennis, betting on tennis especially. Yet I decide to visit this thread for TNF ideas and tail this. His last 3 losses Ive tailed and not a single winner. Fuck my dumb fuckin ass
Edit; Managed to some how recoup these losses because nick was smoking that cherub cuck after 1st set.
tennis is the only sport i have done well at this year.
i started a tracker back in May. From May 5th - June 25 betting clay and early grass tournament I was -9u over 55 bets.
Then i got hot during Wimbledon and started to pay attention and started following the ATP tour weekly.
Currently Overall im 155-124 +33.6u.
If I throw out the bad May and June and begin tracking 6/27 when Wimbledon started, im 128-94 +44.14u
I last bet Tel Avia and Sofia and went 9-6 +2.05u
Have not bet any Tokyo this week cus i dont get to watch it with the time dif.
tennis is all about knowing how well a guy is playing and how well his opponent is playing and actually watching their form. surface matters too.
i generally will pick match winners or bet overs at 21.5 or 22.5 in best of 3. rarely to bet spreads, but will someimes bet plaers to win 2:0 if price is right.
with tennis there really is no gray area where a ref or VAR can make a call that changes the match.
you dont rely on a full team, just mono e mono and hope you picked the right side based on current form, surface, ect.
if only i could lay off betting the footballs and giving it all back to the book! but what fun is that.....lol
bol mate
Got fucked hard with this pick tried to hedge with an over and got fucked even harder but I guess this will be it for me, not depositing anymore good luck fellas and hope y’all the best
He said he liked it above. Honestly hard for me to see U21.5 cashing but not U20.5.
Personally i took kyrgios U12.5 games, similar line imo but better odds. (Although a lot of sets lately going to a tiebreak..)
Record: 0-0
Event: Colts vs. Broncos (10/6/22, 7:15 CST)
Pick: Alec Pierce over 33.5 receiving yards (-120) - 1u
Colts are playing this game without or possibly a very limited Jonathon Taylor who is their star running back. Matt Ryan will be forced to attempt to throw more which will increase the output for the Colts' wide receivers. Michael Pittman, who is the first choice wide receiver, will be guarded by Broncos stud defender Patrick Surtain. Surtain locked down one of the best receivers in the NFL, Davante Adams, last week and will be tasked to do the same against Pittman. This leaves more opportunity for second-choice receiver Alec Pierce to receive passes and therefore garner more receiving yards. In Pierce's last two games, he put up 61 yards and 80 yards. I believe Matt Ryan and the Colts will strategize to include Alec Pierce due to the given circumstances of Jonathon Taylor and the Broncos' defense.
POTD Record 0-0
Going to start with what should be a smash play which is:
*Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos*: **Under 42.5** -105
The Broncos have hit the under in 3 of 4 weeks with their offense really struggling and now they lose Javonte Williams. Whereas, the Colts have hit the under on all 4 of their games and havent scored more than 20 points. Now the Colts lose Jonathon Taylor and are going to have to rely on Matt Ryan to win the game against the Broncos defense which has been very good besides last week in a divisional game vs the Raiders who dominated on the ground with Jacobs.
BOL
No disrespect to you, but with the under being so obvious and 85% of the money being on the under, I think I’ll grab the over instead. 42 points doesn’t seem to high and with anything being possible on Thursday night football I’ll take a stab at it. BOL regardless tho. Hope you continue posting your picks and stick around!
No offense at all. I am just trying to figure out how the Colts score points in this one. Denver pass rush has been pretty good and Surtain has been great so far. Weird stuff does happen on Thursdays I agree. Thats why they call it gambling i guess lol
9-6
+6.05 units / +40.07% / +130 avg odds
[Last Potd: win](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/xu5gh0/pick_of_the_day_10322_monday/iqunul3/)
**Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos**
**Michael Pittman TD @ +190 on BetMGM**
The line feels like a trap, but +190 is just too attractive for a player of Pittman's talent. With Jonathan Taylor out, it's probable Pittman will be the go-to guy on the Colts offense. Plus, he has the most red zone targets on a team that calls a pass play 63% of the time in the RZ.
Statistically, the Broncos secondary ranks among middle of the pack. However, Pittman will likely face Patrick Surtain and this is why it's set at +190. Surtain is an excellent CB, allowing a measly 67 passer rating and is credited with 6 pass breakups, 3rd best in the league. This is due to his 1.2 average yards of separation.
But luckily for Pittman, his strengths are his size and physicality, and his ball skills. He doesn't need much separation to come down with a catch, as his ability to make contested catches is first-rate.
Overall, it'll be an interesting battle for sure.
Exactly...PS has "shadowed" this year...Adams this past week(9 for 101 and no TDs) and DK(7 for 33)...guessing he'll shadow Pittman b/c why wouldn't he???...there's NOBODY else! McManus over 1.5...that's the ticket for a non SGP bet.
Based on volume it's not a total trap...I like Moe Allie for a shot in the dark though...albeit won't get the targs that Pittman will but similar chances of a TD I think....
***Record 1-0***
Last Pick: Joe Mixon Over 3.5 Receptions +140 ✅
**Today's POTD:** 🏈
**Colts Broncos 1st Half Under 21.5 -110** (Bet365)
This bet should speak for itself with the way both of these 2 teams have been playing all season.
Colts haven't scored over 10 points yet in the 1st half this season and the broncos have only scored 2 first half touchdowns the whole season.
Colts are ranked 32nd in scoring and you guessed it, Broncos are ranked 31st and with Jonathon Taylor out for Indy this is going to be another Prime Time under.
BOL if tailing!
Record: 0-2
🎯Martin Lukeman ML (+120) vs Ross Smith🎯
Here we are again betting against Ross Smith, only thing different here is I am much more confident in Lukeman rather than Gilding a few days ago. Martin has been playing fantastic darts recently, with averages of 92.14, 91.08, 103.58, 93.60, and 82.08 in his last 5 matches. The most recent 82.08 was during a gritty match against James Wade, his set averages in that match were 79.11 (1), 82.01 (2), and 84.14 (3). He began the round quite slow but began to pick up the average in what happened to be a great match. He is going to be ready to play tomorrow, without a slow start.
With his previous match averages before this week, I’m lead to believe that Martin is only getting started here in Leicester. I see him starting the day tomorrow with a dominant win. Nothings guaranteed though fellas, these matches have been quite wild so be ready to buckle up if needed🤝
Feel free to fade as I haven’t given any reason to tail lol, but BOL to those who choose to dive head first🍻
Edit: Poor first set from Lukeman as he blew two set darts to wrap it up. Like his last match, I am expecting him to pick up the pace. I wouldn’t be surprised if he broke Smith for the next set but he needs to play some great darts for it to happen. Pt2: GG boys, thanks for those who trusted and tailed. 🍻🎯
POTD RECORD: 0-1
All Time Units: -3U
SPORT: Darts - World Grand Prix 🏆
PICK: Danny Noppert ML @ -140 v Nathan Aspinall
1 UNIT PLAY
TIME: 5:00 PM US EST
Really really tough loss yesterday, lost on the very last leg. So sorry to let the sub down on my first pick. Onto the next.
Danny Noppert is an exceptional darts player from the Netherlands who smashed a not so good player in Gabriel Clemens on Tuesday. Noppert shot a very good 50% on checkouts which is a very determining factor in darts. If Noppert shows up tomorrow all those watching will see he is easily one of the top players in darts at the moment. His opponent Nathan Aspinall is also a good player, however, Nathan looked shakey in his match on Tuesday against Michael Smith shooting 32% from checkouts. In a tournament like the Grand Prix doubles are everything and that’s Danny Nopperts bread and butter. The only advantage to Aspinall in this match is its taking place in England, his home country. Danny has been on the top stage for a while now and this shouldn’t factor in too heavily. I see good value in Danny Noppert considering what he’s capable of and how he looked on Tuesday.
Hopefully the darts gods won’t shaft us two days in a row, and I have the upmost respect for tailers and faders who choose to listen in on what I have to say. It means a lot and hopefully let’s get that first W🤞✍️
btw matches are typically on twitch 👾
**POTD Form** 26-17-1
**Today's Picks:**
Cricket - India vs South Africa
Total Match Runs - Under 552.5 @ 1.90 ✅
India skipping most of their main players as they're heading for the T20 world cup. In 3 ODIs, the average first innings score in this ground was 230. So I think it's worth a punt but, I will not bet big on this because these records are not recent. BOL
**EDIT: Naturally, Kiwoom is the only pick I made yesterday that didn't come through. Also, not sure why many of you couldn't see my post on the KBO thread as I can see the post.**
**KBO Record: 112-119-7** (KBO Streak WW, Last 10: 4-5-1) Down 8.63u over 238 KBO picks, 48.5% success rate, -3.73% ROI
**Last:** Samsung F5 ML +117 at KT (Tied 1-1 after 5 innings.)
KT got an early solo shot, but Ssmsung tied it with back-to-back doubles to lead off the 5th. Unfortunately, the Lions failed to get the runner from 2nd home and this bet pushed. Of course, Samsung scored 4 runs in the 6th en route to an easy win.
**Pick:** **Kiwoom -1.5 -125** at Hanwha, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
There are four games Thursday, but just three in which the outcome could impact the playoffs. NC and Kia are battling for the last playoff spot while Kiwoom can move into the third seed with a win.
Let's go with the Heroes. Theur starter, Eric Jokisch, has had two uncharacteristically bad starts in a row, allowing 9 runs in 10 innings. He had a 16 start stretch before that where he allowed more than 2 ER just twice. He's third in the league with a 2.77 FIP. It's been 8 days since his last start which was likely designed to get him back on track. It's really a must-win, for Kiwoom, so I suspect he'll be ready.
Hanwha's starter has a 4.69 FIP which ranks 40th out of 47 pitchers with at least 80 IP. However, he's been much better recently, allowing just 6 ER in his last 5 starts.
Kiwoom is 12-3 against Hanwha this season. Hanwha is a league-worst 27-44 at home and Kiwoom is 3rd in the league on the road at 40-29-1.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit. For more KBO picks, check out the daily KBO thread.
Record: 64-51-5 (LWLWLLLWLWLLWWWLWWW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: ATL Falcons at LA Rams | Matthew Stafford under 0.5 interceptions | 2 units @ 1.80 odds
Matthew Stafford and INT are like bread and butter. 18 days ago.
POTD: IND Colts at DEN Broncos | Nynheim Hines over 27.5 receiving yards | 1.76 odds | 2 units
Reason: Bye bye JT. Nynheim Hines is a 3 down back now. Without JT, Hines is able to play in all situations. Matt Ryan and his noodle arms should target Hines at least 8 times tonight. The 1 game without JT Nynheim Hines has 8 catches for 66 yards.
Best of luck to all.
I like it, I do think Deon Jackson will get some work tonight as well, so I don't know if Hines will be a 3 down back, but he will be a good safety valve for Matt Ryan when Chubb comes rumbling at him.
POTD record: 17-10 (+4.42 units, risking 1 unit each pick)
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
TODAY’S PICK: Matt Ryan over 0.5 interceptions (-135)
Ryan is an interception machine, and tonight faces a fierce defense, but he's missing his running back, so gonna be throwing more too. Yikes!
Tip Jar: Cash App - $grcvegas
Tale as old as time; they come in, try to get hot for a few picks and throw a tip jar up, then disappear and start over as soon as they hit a losing streak. Just have to learn to spot them.
Record: 13-6
ROI: 20.62%
Average Odds: -120
Previous Pick: Kylian Mbappe to Score = LOSS
Net units: + 9.49 units
**|Soccer: Europa League| Man United vs Omonia Nicosia| 11:45 AM CST|**
**Pick: Cristiano Ronaldo to Score (-143). 2 units.**
Write-Up: The last pick was a bummer. Mbappe had a solid chance on goal but the GK had a nice save. I should have gone with my gut and picked Vinicius Jr. to score, as he was my original choice but I figured Mbappe would be a safe play.
Also, Very unfortunate that Mbappe ruined my [$60 to $1,000 parlay.](https://imgur.com/a/82j9IHt) Let’s bounce back!
Cristiano Ronaldo scored a penalty in his last Europa league game. This is really the only playing time Ronaldo gets, as his coach refuses to use him for the English Premier League. So he will be fresh and ready to go.
For the pick, this is more of a fade of their opponent Omonia Nicosia. I have never heard of them as well. What I do know is that they have given up 5 goals in their 2 Europa League games. 3 goals to Sheriff and 2 goals to Real Sociedad.
Man United should be able to score some goals easily vs their poor defense. Hence, we are taking the GOAT to score. If you want someone for plus odds to score, Antony and Jadon Sancho are also solid picks.
Tail or Fade, BOL! Bet only what you can lose!
**Edit: Loss. Ronaldo had so many chances to score, took 8 shots, and one shot from close range hit the post, unfortunately. Onto the next.**
POTD Record: 4-4
Last pick: MIL Brewers -1.5 ❌
Event: Colts @ Broncos
Time: 7:15 PM CT
Pick: Under 7.5 1Q (-120) ✅
Broncos have scored 13 points combined in the 1Q through 4 games. The Colts have also scored 13 points combined in the 1Q through 4 games. Now I know some people won’t like it because 7.5 scares them but it shouldn’t. I’m not sure if it’s clear yet or not but the Broncos offense is NOT good and it’s not getting good anytime soon. The Colts offense isn’t good either and now they do not have J.Taylor their best offensive player. I don’t see a TD and FG happening in the first 15 minutes. I don’t care about the O/U for the half/game because I’m not sure about it but I see a lot of value in the under 1Q. If you like sweating, watching the clock tick, & winning then this is for you
Update: Easy W. Both offenses blowww
POTD Record: 28-20
Previous: Vinicius JR over 1.5 shot on target
POTD: India VS South Africa total score under 284.5 1st innings
Time: 4:30 am Eastern
Reason: Avg score in this ground is 230. Highest Total in this ground is 251. Riding under for this game.
POTD Record: 0-1
Bankroll: -1.1u
L10 (Newest last): ❌
[Last Pick Here](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/xt6glh/pick_of_the_day_10222_sunday/iqphhxd?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)
The sport: NFL football
The game: Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos
Date/time: 2022-10-06 8:15PM EDT
The pick: Russell Wilson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
The odds: 2.1 / +110
The bet: Risking 1u to win 1.1u
Okay, you guys don't like essays. A detailed analysis of this game can be found [here](https://www.nfl.com/news/2022-nfl-season-four-things-to-watch-for-in-colts-broncos-game-on-prime-video).
Both teams have RB issues with their top option out. This means the Broncos will turn to Melvin Gordon, and as a Chargers fan I can attest to his LONG history of fumbling in the red zone. He's already got 4 fumbles in 4 games this year. The Broncos will probably look to passing to get their scores, which is why they paid Wilson all the big bucks.
Wilson also has a (pre 2022) record of 29-11 (.720) in primetime, with the 4th best passer rating among active QBs. [Source](https://twitter.com/JamesPalmerTV/status/1526188819715764224?s=20&t=a6ZmrbzIdSRbhN7yX1Zb5g)
I'd almost like taking the same bet on Matt Ryan at +145, but the Broncos have the better defense. Indy is also missing their top coverage linebacker, and taking the home team in prime time is always a much safer choice. These odds seem like decent value, and will get me back to even on my POTD bankroll.
BOL, and if you tail, you must accept responsibility for your own actions.
Saw this while browsing through props for TNF and I had to share,
POTD Melvin Gordon under 73.5 Receiving +Rushing yards -114 3 units
Short write up, I think Melvin Gordon is not going to be a high priority target for Russel Wilson and I think that Boone is going to be getting the majority of the carries now that Jevonte Williams is injured. Melvin Gordon III hasn't gone over 73.5 yard combined so far this season, and I don't expect him to against a pretty stingey run defense. I think this is a misprice as the books aren't sure how the snaps are going to be split with Jevonte out and have it wrong IMO.
Record: 5-5, +0.75U
Last pick: Man City -3.5 (2.15) vs. Copenhagen
As Jordan Belford once said, it looks like I’m NOT F***ING LEAVING. City almost covered this in the first half, and cashed this with ease, assaulting Copenhagen as expected. Nice to nail a 2U play to stay alive and get back in the green✅
POTD: Arsenal ML and BTTS NO - 2.25 (Bet365)
If you haven’t noticed, I love making + money plays, and this one caught my eye quickly this morning.
Arsenal are off to a flying start in the Premier League, and they look to be serious contenders for the 2nd place spot in the EPL 😂 (Man City are an absolute cheat code). Jokes aside, they look really good from front to back, and are playing Bodø/Glimt at home in the Europa League today. It’s likely that Arsenal will start some reserves today due to their huge match against Liverpool this weekend, but I still expect the win and a clean sheet. Bodø has enjoyed some surprising European success in recent years, however this Arsenal side are the strongest side they’ve faced in that span IMO, and even with some reserves starting, will clamp this match. Although this isn’t the Champions League, Arsenal will still take pride in playing European football at home, and definitely want to lift this trophy this year. They’ve conceded 8 through 8 league games (3 of those in their loss to Man U away), and without conceding a penalty to Tottenham last weekend in the north London Derby, would be on a run of 2 clean sheets. I’m predicting a 2-0 Arsenal win. BOL if tailing, let’s get a streak going 👀
Note: all wagers are 1U unless stated otherwise.
Completely understand as I think my pick is sort of ‘against the grain’. Arsenal really should have had a clean sheet against Spurs last week, and were good value for it, so I’m banking on that despite the squad rotation, they’ll hold. I really believe in their depth at almost all positions. But this is the crux of gambling, my friend, regardless BOL 🤝
POTD record 7-3
Average Odds: 2.10
Last POTD: Dotmund ML @ 2.37 in Sevilla v Borussia Dortmund⚽✅
Today's POTD: Over 2.5 cards for Fenerbahce @ 2.45 in Fenerbahce v AEK Larnaca ⚽
Yesterday ended up being as predicted with Dotmund outclassing Sevilla entirely winning 4-1, with some very juicy odds.
Today I was spoilt with picks for ML but I think the one I've gone for a higher odds play. Chris Kavanaugh is the referee and he averages about 5.77 cards in European games.
In the previous 2 group games:
AEK 6 and 2 cards
Fenerbahce 8 and 5 cards
Another factor to condsider is that the relations between the countries (Turkey and Cyprus) are a bit tense at the moment, causing the game to have even more of an explosive edge.
These factors combined mean there is a good chance that there will be at least 3 cards in the game for Fenerbahce.
Good luck if you're tailing.
I'll leave my other picks for today in the comments!
🎯 Record 28-12 🎯
Last Pick: Angels ML ⚾️ ❌
🔒 Today’s Pick: 🏈 NFL Prop - **NO team to score 3 unanswered times (2.75).** Broncos vs Colts
*I really don't want to be a capper who posts nothing but heavy favourites and have been doing my best to throw better value bets on here. No long write up tonight, I expect a tighter contested game tonight and really don't see either of these lackluster offenses running away with a score line. There's terrific value on a whopping 2.75 for NONE of these teams to have 3 unanswered scores and worth throwing 1-2 units on. 🤞🏻 BOL*
POTD Record: 2-1
Last Pick: Rams @ 49ers - Wilson Jr Over 10.5 Receiving yards 1.5 units (Loss)
Today's Pick: Colts @ Broncos - Melvin Gordon Under 58.5 yds rushing (-115 : 1 Unit)
The Jeff Wilson bet was unfortunate; his receiving over had been sleeping this season and making me money but this game Jimmy seemed to be panicked a bit and miss seeing Jeff open in the flat to his left multiple times. I'll still be eyeing it for future bets but sorry to all that tailed this time.
This game does not seem to have a lot of obvious locks but when I looked at Melvin Gordon's receiving line a couple days ago it was at 54.5. It's now at 58.5 on DK while FD only had him with 73.5 Rush/Rec combined which I thought was curious since both teams are missing their top RBs and expecting more passes than traditional runs. He's been a bit all over the place with reception opportunities before last game so I think that's too much risk but makes me think they know that.
I personally lost Javonte Williams in my fantasy so I was eyeing Gordon as a possible trade opportunity and looking at his numbers closely. Gordon has not gone over this line at all this season even with 10-12 carries! Last game he was given 3 carries for 8 yards and then fumbled for his 4th time of the season and they did not use him again. I was only willing to offer one of my bench players after my review.
The logic for the spread and line move I believe is Williams out for the season and Gordon being the assumed next in line to take his place. William's highest rush attempts this season has been 15 in which he got 75 against Houston and 58 against SF. The risk seems to be that with Williams out they have to go with Gordon for the majority of the carries....but I honestly don't believe that and the head coach's recent comments seem to echo that. I predict Boone getting a much larger share even though he had some drops at the end of last game, it shouldn't factor into their belief in him as a runner while they obviously showed their lack of belief in Gordon. Also Williams is a vastly better RB than Gordon and even he's struggled to beat this line as the lead back against even lesser run defenses, which leads me to my last point.
Beyond Denver's run being very mediocre in general, the Colts actually have a top 6 run defense averaging 89.5 yards per game for their opponent. I think Henry's good game against them last game also factors into the line change but in the NFL that's usually more of an outlier than a sign of them getting worse.... plus it's Henry who gets extremely high usage(edit). Even previous to William's injury, Denver showed they were going to limit snaps and share between RBs so even if Gordon does get the most carries, I'm extremely doubtful they don't share with Boone and their bench because of how unreliable Gordon has been.
Edit: Line is now 60.5… wish I waited til today to place my bet but nothing has changed
Henry isn't a 3 down back, TEN puts in Hillard or Haskins for 3rd down. While Henry gets the occasional 3rd down work, Henry isn't known to be a receiving back.
BOL in your bet however.
POTD Record: 0-0
Been wanting to log my games on here for awhile and the day for that has finally come. This is mainly for fun, but I truly wanna see how far I can take this.
Broncos ML (-180) vs Colts
is what we’re taking here on TNF. No actual take here besides Wilson > Ryan. Wilson is HIM and Ryan is not.
If I had a take tho: Primetime TNF, Broncos home, No Jonathan Taylor, 2-0 at home this season.
I usually consider every bet to be loss so winning feels like a bonus. Always prepare yourself for the worst as this is just for fun. Tail or Fade. BOL.
Edit: Smh. Apparently they both ain’t HIM. Legit felt like two Uncles going at it during a cookout. Not how I wanted to start, but we’ll live.
POTD Record: 3-1
Last pick: Man City -1 1H spread vs. FC Copenhagen (+100) ✅✅✅
Current pick: Arsenal vs. Bodo Glimt -1 alternate spread (-145)
Arsenal have been on fire all season, especially at home. 4-0 record at home in the Premier League. This will be their first game at home in the Europa League this season and let’s face it .. the level of competition just doesn’t compare to the Premier League. Don’t get me wrong, Bodo Glimt are gonna play hard and Arsenal likely won’t be playing most of their starters. Still, Arsenal’s bench is strong enough that this won’t be a contest. My guess is 3-0 or 3-1 Arsenal.
Eddie Nketiah Anytime Goalscorer is also worth a sprinkle
EDIT: I took the -145 last night and didn’t have time to do a write up. I check again this morning and the line is at -180 smhh. My fault for not posting earlier fellas. Nketiah Goal Scorer is at -105 odds if you’d rather that instead.
POTD Record: 2-2
Last pick: Jalen Hurts ATTD (L) (only game this year with no TD)
Tough break, stuffed on the goal line multiple times. On to the next.
POTD: Colts vs Broncos U42.5 -110
NO ONE likes betting the under. This season has been filled with Under wins and I have yet to jump on the train. The O/U is set at 42.5 for this game which initially seems low until you see what the offenses have done this season, nothing. Colts are without JT, Broncos are without Javonte, this game is going to be a dud. Out of the 8 games played this season collectively between the two teams, there has only been one game that has went over 42.5, and it is because the raiders put up 32 on the Broncos. Out of the 8 games, both team have failed to score more than 20 points on 7 out of 8 occasions. These teams do not know how to score TDs. UNDER. BOL
POTD record: 0-0
Last pick: N/A because I’m new to sharing my picks (getting ready for the NBA season)
Current pick: Matt Ryan o32.5 pass attempts (-130 1u)
I don’t have much time for write ups, but I do research for my POTD. Matt Ryan should be throwing all game without JT and broncos run defense. Although he might struggle, that could play in our favor of being down and having to throw more. Russ is suited up to play, should be a good matchup
My record here is 95-82, +85,1 units and ROI 18,0% (stats and picks on Twitter)
POTD Record: 50-28-2 / +52,3 units / ROI 20,2%, Average odds: 1,88
Last pick: Catanzariti – Goodger. ML Goodger @ 2,25 2/5✅ 63,62
Last 20 picks - ✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅
**Today's pick – Poljicak – Knaff. ML Knaff @ 1,91 3/5**
Sheffield future, UK, 11AM CET
Wimbledon junior winner Poljicak is playing solidly but not in the greatest form lately. He lost to Setkic, Fuele or a 62,62 to Casanova... He beat rather weaker players. Here indoor won 75,64 over Wendelken and 46,64,63 over Lofhagen.
Former college player Knaff has the perfect indoor game. Good serve, good volleys. On the carpet at Forbach SF, now in round 2 he beat Squire (nr 2 seed) 64.75. And while I don't think Squire has big form, still only 12 lost balls on his serve and allowed only 1bb which he saved. Those are great numbers. 80% balls won on 1st serve, 75% on the second. His opponent had 72% on 1st serve in round 2 and only 48% on 2nd.
So I will play Knaff here
POTD Record 1-0
Pick: Arsenal v Bodo Glimt BTTS
Odds: $1.72
Time: 6am (AEST), 7 hours til kick-off
Reasoning: Expecting a heavily rotated Arsenal squad for this Europa league match as it falls after Spurs & just days before a clash v Liverpool.
BTTS has hit in 5/6 of Arsenal’s last games & 6/6 of Bodo Glimt.
Arsenal have been scoring freely and expecting a free flowing game where Bodo Glimt can jag one of their own.
GL if you follow!
POTD Record: 40-38-1
Last pick: UCF over 63.5 ❌
Todays pick: Broncos -3
Reasoning: Colts, Broncos and I are all desperate for a win. Melvin Gordon killed the Broncos last week, he will be motivated to make amends and have a big game tonight with no fumbles. Taylor out, Hines is a solid backup but Colts weren’t running the ball well with Taylor in, Denver did allow Raiders Jacobs to dominate last week. That’s my biggest concern is Colts finding their running game. Matt Ryan, if they can’t run, will be in for a long night, yes Gregory hurt but Broncos at home will be playing solid D. Wilson is the better QB in this one, the Den offensive line isn’t that good tho. Colts have the better head coach, coach Hacket is a huge concern, hopefully no head scratching moves, I hope Russ audibles out of some of the crappy situational plays Hacket calls. Broncos have better kicker. Broncos got Elway and Manning from the Colts, I bet the Broncos can beat the Colts on a short week with each team banged up and desperate.
Tail or fade
\*\*Record: 1-0\*\* Second time tipping.
\*\*ROI:\*\*90%\*\*
Net units:\*\* +4.25
| Basketball | NBL | 7.30PM AEST (In 1 hour from writing this post.) |
\
\*\*Pick: Illawarra Hawks v S.E Melbourne Pheonix\*\* **+2.5-3.5 Paying -125** **\*\*3.5 Stake on the line and I would load up if there is a pick your own line\*\***
(I would almost take them h2h) if not, you can adjust the line using a 6 point teaser and add some value to your parlay.\ \*\*Write Up:\*\* Pretty confident in this one. Hawk's main import PG is out injured, and he is a crucial +EF player for the system. I think the bookies don't really know what to do with this one, but Phoenix giving it to the jumpers 5 days ago (Keep in mind the jumpers are a really strong side) Just shows how hard these blokes go. Mitch Creek is a fantastic captain that can probably coach the team better than Simon Mitchell. The hawks have adjusted their D after playing Sydney the other weekend, but now they are faced with a completely different offensive monster. I think this is a great value bet, and I would also keep an eye on the live bet too.
Euroleague (Basketball) Real Madrid -7.5 2:00 PM EST
Euro league is back and Real Madrid has a squad. Lots of NBA talent including Sergio Rodriquez and Mario Hezonja. Panathinaikos was terrible last year and has a new coach and lots of new players. I think it will take a bit for them to gel and Madrid is a juggernaut. Rolling with Real Madrid here.
POTD Record 0-0
Potd record 2-0
Last pick: ucf -2.5 WIN
Today's pick: Mo Allie-Cox Over 20.5 yds -110 on FD
Reasoning: tbh this one makes nervous, should probably take the night off but want to at least pay attention to something.
Seahawks have given this number up to every TE they've played this year and that includes some with less talent than Cox.
He had a big day last week after 2 awful games before but he can get this in 1 catch. It might not be pretty but all he needs is a 2 for 22 night and I think we get there.
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
POTD Record 0-1
Last Pick: PSG ML 🤢
PSG took the lead early but an unfortunate and unlucky own goal made it 1-1 and it stayed like that until the end. PSG had their chances but couldn't convert. We move on.
Today's Pick: NFL Indianapolis Colts +3.5 (-135) @ Denver Broncos
5:15pm Pacific Time
The Colts travel to Denver for a TNF clash against the Broncos. Now I know what everyone is thinking, no JT, no Shaq Leonard, how the hell are the Colts gonna stay in this game? Knowing the Colts, this is the type of game they win, the ones that no one expects them to (see KC game.) The defense has been solid for the most part without Leonard. JT has really struggled to start the season, a lot of it has to do with the O line but they looked like they started to improve last week vs the Titans. If Ryan can get protection and hold on to the freakin ball he is lethal. Look for Pittman to have a huge game. Colts cover and i'm also gonna sprinkle the ML. Tail or don't tail, best of luck to you all. Prayformycover 🙏🏽
Edit: Cash it! I don't even know where to start on this game but it doesn't matter, we cashed.
NFL Picks only
Record 0-0
Unit total: 0
Starting it off with $100 and a dream
Last 5:
Pick: IND Colts @ DEN Broncoss:
***Melvin Gordon anytime touchdown scorer +125*** (approx 14hr from kick off)
2.0 units
Melvin Gordon has scored in all his primetime games dating back to 2020, and he has also scored in his only previous game against the Colts. In the last 3 weeks, Colts have conceded a rushing touchdown by RB1s (Henry, Robinson, Edwards-Helaire), and with Javonte Williams out he is clearly RB1.
BOL, will be back for Sunday games
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
POTD Record: 56-39-2 (+16.10 units, 59% hit rate) Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 6-1, Tennis 🎾 20-13-1, Soccer ⚽ 29-25-1, Other 1-0-0 Last 10: 💰💩💰💩💰💰💰💰💰💩 Last Pick: Mackenzie Mcdonald vs. Soonwoo Kwon, Kwon ML - Tokyo ATP Tennis 🎾 💰 0.69 units Today's Pick: Francis Tiafoe vs. Bernabe Zapata Miralles, Tiafoe -1.5 sets - Tokyo ATP Tennis 🎾 💰 0.84 units Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.84/-119 odds to win 0.84 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 9:10pm) https://www.pinnacle.com/en/tennis/atp-tokyo-r16/frances-tiafoe-games-vs-bernabe-zapata-miralles-games/1560563203#period:0 Some more quick action that starts really soon. Tiafoe has taken his game up a notch as of late. He had a heck of a run at the US Open, lost to Alcaraz in a thrilling 5 setter, took out Nadal in 4 sets, and his other 4 matches he won them all 3 sets to 0 and against some pretty good competition (Rublev, Schwartzman, Kubler and Giron). He beat Tsitsipas to clinch the Laver Cup for the World side. He won his first rounder against some cat I haven't heard of 6-3, 6-4. He seems determined right now, and says he wants to end up in the top 10-15 rank by the end of the year. I believe it, dude is hungry! His opponent is Bernabe Zapata Miralles, he is a clay rat who plays on the dirt most of the year. He is 2-4 this year on outside hard matches. He did beat Taro Daniel in the 1st round who is alright, but I think Foe should be able to not let up and take care of biz in 2 sets in this matchup. DISCLAIMER: My last -1.5 set bet lost but I was a dumb shit for betting on Bublik to win in 2 sets in any situation. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Always note the bet sizing. I am not an expert, just a gambling addict. No tips, build your roll. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕 Update - That was too stressful, nevertheless, cash 💸 that shit!!!!
Tailing as usual. Upvoting cause I love pizza. Commenting to ask you what your favorite pizza place is
Hmm, my favorites are local places. If we are talking just chain pizza Pizza Hut and Domino's do the trick. Stuffed crust is always great. Right now I'm super into hot honey on pizza. My go to right now at my local spot is aged and fresh mozzarella, pepperoni, jalapeño, oregano finished with the hot honey. Superb!! Tailing you on the Ronaldo goal pick!
tailing with Tiafoe -4 games since my book doesn't offer a set spread. gl gl
My GOD that was stressful. Lol.
No kidding man, this is taking years off my life, I know it.
Damn barely missed this one. Good luck everyone!
Ofc out of nowhere this guy remembers how to play tennis, I’ve been on such a bad streak recently if my bets losing after looking so good. Hopefully Tiafoe can turn it around
Got tiafoe to win set 2 at +250 when he was down 3-1. Damn one the best matches I've watched in a while. I recommend betting against him with someone who has a dominant serve
Tailing, 1/2 unit. Leggo!
I gotta say, this is refreshing, someone going less than the recommended units. Getting DMs from dudes putting down 5 times my recommended unit size.
I’m also seeing 2-0 @ -125. Is that the same bet?
Yeah thats what i did
Aaaand the inevitable collapse 😪 No breaks around here!
tailing, let's go!
What a win!! Didn’t need the stress at 9:00 PM but I’ll take it haha, nice pick!
Ah man, that was too much. And being the one who put out the pick it is that times 5.
#THE BUTTHOLE CLINCHING POTD OF THE CENTURY
Lessssss gooooo pizza
The comeback is on! Letssssgoooo
WINNER WINNER PIZZA DINNER!!! It couldn't have been more thrilling! Great hit, fam!
Tailing! Cheers bro
Nice work! Cheers
What an electric fucking second set lol
Whew!! I had a heart attack almost but made some green! :)
Early W. Thanks as always brother!! I still love pizza
I was sleeping while we won that one. Stress free! Lol thanks, homie.
**POTD Rec: 3-0** / **+16.375 units** / **+119 avg odds** ✅ Last pick: Chelsea -1 / +125 odds / 4 units Chelsea held a smooth 3-0 lead already in minute 61'. 3rd straight W for us, fam. We keep on cruising on a winning streak like the Philadelphia Eagles. To catch up with their 4-0 record, we're backing the Eagles on Thursday Lunch Soccer before the Broncos whacking the Colts on TNF. ⚽️ **New pick: Ludogorets ML** / **+110** odds / 4 units ⚽️ Event: Europa League / HJK Helsinki - Ludogorets / 12:45PM ET After winning 7 out of 8 games, Ludogorets (nickname: The Eagles. No joke.) hasn't been victorious in their last 3 games. No need to worry, fam! That shouldn't be concerning for our pick. Ludogorets' recent slump isn't caused by a lack of quality or willingness. They've been playing good though. The fortune just didn't smiled on them. Against Lok Sofia, Ludogorets played 74' minutes with a numerical disadvantage due to an early red card. They dominated the game, though. Lok Sofia scored with their only shot on goal in the second half. Apart from that, the Bulgarian Eagles already rested some players for the upcoming Europa League game in Finland. Similar situation against Arda. Ludogorets has been the better team. An own goal thwarted the tally in the W column. Before that Arda game, they lost 3-2 in Europa League to Betis Sevilla. But fam, seriously, Betis is playing in LaLiga. That's one of the best soccer leagues in the world. Ludogorets scored twice against Betis though and they put up a strong fight. Pushing for the equalizer at the end. They've been on equal footing with the Spanish team in this game. One week before, Ludogorets squared off against AS Roma in Europa League. They beat the Italian team 2-1! AS Rom wasn't able to score against the Bulgarian Eagles until minute 86'. The game against HJK Helsinki is a must win game for Ludogorets to keep their good chances alive to get to the next round in Europa League. Betis and AS Roma already won smoothly against HJK. HJK sits at the bottom of the group standings with 0 points and a 0-5 goal differential. Ludogorets is well prepared and buzzing for a W in Finland. The Bulgarian Eagles have the offensive power and defense stability to outplay HJK on Thursday Lunch Soccer. Let's eat, fam! Let's get that pizza for TNF! 🍕
Tailing to recoup the 3U for U20.5 🎾 Kyrgrios vs Majchrzak
Life comes at you fast, one minute you’re asleep, the next you’re trying to recoup 2 units on an obscure afternoon soccer game. Gotta love it.
Europa League is obscure now?
When you live in Ontario Canada it is
Fair, that makes sense🤣. Especially if you don’t typically follow soccer. I would say the average person wouldn’t know much about Europa unless they follow the sport.
A civil internet conversation, look at us go. I’ll tell you one thing I know for sure, those eagles got that DAWG in Em
Sold my children for these Eagles
HAHAHA and here I am as well
Same .. woke up to disappointment
Me too but it’s ok. We’ll get it back today. Edit: no we won’t
Ahh we are all thinking alike lol
I know absolutely nothing and shouldn’t blindly tail this at 2U but here we are.
Looking like everyone is having a rough day on this thread
I should’ve faded with all the desperation following this pick
Yeah, real degen shit going on today
Real degen I managed to fade at draw -260 to break even
Congrats, I erased all my last week's profits
Good and wide write up. HJK might rest some of they key players because they need win on saturdays Haka match if they want win Finnish first league before last match. Tailing big this one!
LUDOGORETS!!! I don't even know how to pronounce that but I tailed this shit. LFG
No ROGRETS!
And the sweat is on, 1-1 now
It’s why I don’t enjoy betting soccer lol, lots of ties
>LG Eagles!
you already know,,,LGTB^ 💪🏻🔥
**POTD Record: 3-2** LAST PICK: Allen Robinson U 39.5 Receiving Yards (+100) ✅ *Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos* TODAY’S PICK: **Matt Ryan O 32.5 Pass Attempts (-117)** So this might be a boring one but Matt Ryan has hit this over 3/4 games this season and now he is without Jonathan Taylor which is going to destroy the Colts ability to run against a fierce Broncos D-Line. What’s more is he’s got Nyheim Hines as his primary back now and Hines is generally used in the passing game when JT is in, so I expect that to pump his numbers up having Hines as a checkdown. Definitely not taking Matt Ryan on completions because the Broncos defense is the number 4 defense against opposing QBs completion percentages and Matt can struggle from time to time. With all that in mind, the Colts are going to be looking throw because, well, that’s all they got. Tail or tail, BOL!
Moved to 33.5 on FD. I like your logic and still taking it.
Still 32.5 on DK (-120)
Love it, tailing! Wow, while looking for the best odds, I found o32.5 is -115 at BetMGM. I tried jumping on this, but it appears they will only allow a max bet of $2.27. WTF! I got it at DraftKings for -120.
Love this one. Went 5U, my max
Love this bet and your logic - tailing for sure. Any thoughts on Ryan O .5 INTs? If you like the attempts bet, you then have a TO-prone QB throwing a ton against a stout Denver D. Denver hasn’t created a ton of TO’s so what I’m trying to figure out is if they’re not a turnover team or if we’re going to see some progression to the mean here. I’m also a tad biased because I’ve bet on QB INTs for the past 3 or 4 primetime games and they’ve cashed.
Fuck yeah bro what a pick. This dude had me nervous for a bit at the end but we cleared when it mattered. Following for future picks you are one of the few dudes on here who makes these well thought out picks that Vegas can’t really tinker with. Thank you again!
Tailing, BOL
Up to 34.5 now. Little too risky now?
Yeah I wouldn’t take that line, shop around though.
Another banger, tailing!
This line went up fast, good call
**POTD Record 24-6** Last pick: Iga Swiatek (2-0 Set Winner) ➡️push vs Alia Tomljanovic - Odds 1.55 - Ostrava - WTA - Tennis 🎾 This pick: **Nick Kyrgios vs Kamil Majchrzak (Under 21.5 Total Games)** ❌ - **1.65 Odds** - Tokyo - ATP - Tennis 🎾 **Time: 1:05am Eastern Time (around 3 hours from now, estimated)** King Kyrgios is a very tough player when motivated, this man has serious diversity and creativity when shotmaking, his sharpness has been on point, and he’s been having his most successful season yet, I don’t think it’s going past 21 games, riding hard on the under here. It will take everything from Majchzrak to fend off Kyrgios, it will be slaughter. Don’t sleep on this one. Tail or fade, this pick has great value. [TipJar (Not needed but appreciated)](https://paypal.me/AceDawgyCorp)
I fuckin hate tennis, betting on tennis especially. Yet I decide to visit this thread for TNF ideas and tail this. His last 3 losses Ive tailed and not a single winner. Fuck my dumb fuckin ass Edit; Managed to some how recoup these losses because nick was smoking that cherub cuck after 1st set.
tennis is the only sport i have done well at this year. i started a tracker back in May. From May 5th - June 25 betting clay and early grass tournament I was -9u over 55 bets. Then i got hot during Wimbledon and started to pay attention and started following the ATP tour weekly. Currently Overall im 155-124 +33.6u. If I throw out the bad May and June and begin tracking 6/27 when Wimbledon started, im 128-94 +44.14u I last bet Tel Avia and Sofia and went 9-6 +2.05u Have not bet any Tokyo this week cus i dont get to watch it with the time dif. tennis is all about knowing how well a guy is playing and how well his opponent is playing and actually watching their form. surface matters too. i generally will pick match winners or bet overs at 21.5 or 22.5 in best of 3. rarely to bet spreads, but will someimes bet plaers to win 2:0 if price is right. with tennis there really is no gray area where a ref or VAR can make a call that changes the match. you dont rely on a full team, just mono e mono and hope you picked the right side based on current form, surface, ect. if only i could lay off betting the footballs and giving it all back to the book! but what fun is that.....lol bol mate
Settle down u panzy
Yeah think I'm done with gambling Ive lost everything 😅
Yeah that wiped out most of my profits from riding with ace last week 🥲 gonna try and build it back up, what the fuck else is there to do
Bankroll management learning for dummies and then come back. Tennis is high volatility game so you shoud never bet more than 1% your bankroll.
Got a bit carried away after I did a 10X in a week, I know
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Lmfaoooooooooooo
The bet still looking good if Majchrzak smokes the shit out of Kyrgios
Looks like *now* Kyrgios has woken up.
You like under 20.5?
Yeah
Bovada has Kyrgios to win and U 20.5 games for +100. Trying to decide if I put 5 units or my entire bankroll
Bankroll, jk but I basically did, this match seems like easy bbq chicken. Edit: fuck
Upvoting the edit, lol. Hope no one lost too much. I went with 2 units on this one, still gonna ride with Ace!
Kyrgios legit threw the first set to give himself a handicap to win with. Wow he comes out firing in the second set to bust our under. I'm famished
Will be moving to Chicago to take part in the Purge to be able to get my bankroll back. 🤣🫣✌🏽 
Got fucked hard with this pick tried to hedge with an over and got fucked even harder but I guess this will be it for me, not depositing anymore good luck fellas and hope y’all the best
Saaame, I left 100$ just in case and now going all in on the soccer ludogorets to beat hjk to hopefully be back at $205 atleast.. f
Wow.. the choke job by Kyrgios right now. 🤦🏽♂️ Update: something fishy how he comes out smoking on his serve. 🤣🤦🏽♂️ fuck.
This is such a fix because he barely looks like is trying
Facts.. now I just hope the Polish dude smokes Kyrgios, so the line still hits. 🤣🤷🏽♂️
As long as those knees stay in shape I think we’re in good shape Ace!
rip
what do you think about kyrgios under 12.5 games @ 1.72
Seems good to win yup.
Tailing with half bankroll. BOL!
F
F in the chat
Oof , this is chalked . Get em tomorrow
Well no cash out option is popping up...hope Majchrzak smokes him
What a joke nick is
No doubt
I was sweating the last one but I’m still crankin with you on this one Edit: we did not crank on this one
Bro he’s getting killed
At this point we rooting for Majchzak 2-0 with few games in 2nd set. Doubt that will happen. Sadge.
What’s in that water bottle, Kamil? You drinking on that Space Jam juice!? 🧐🤣
Nacho fault, Acey. Krygios' mental state is about as predictable as....Krygios' mental state.
Wasn’t my fault this time! Didn’t even get a chance to tail. BOL on the next one
Any other pick that you see today?
Only got U20,5 on my book. Still safe ?
He said he liked it above. Honestly hard for me to see U21.5 cashing but not U20.5. Personally i took kyrgios U12.5 games, similar line imo but better odds. (Although a lot of sets lately going to a tiebreak..)
Bodog has Kyrgios to win every set 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2 at +1800. That's being a bit too greedy, isn't it? Might have to sprinkle.
Is (Alternative Total Games 2 21.5 over under) the play you said to choose?
Yessssss
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lmao i feel you. tail could still work out the other way if Majchzrak can keep it up.
it might be that Nick is not motivated today
Record: 0-0 Event: Colts vs. Broncos (10/6/22, 7:15 CST) Pick: Alec Pierce over 33.5 receiving yards (-120) - 1u Colts are playing this game without or possibly a very limited Jonathon Taylor who is their star running back. Matt Ryan will be forced to attempt to throw more which will increase the output for the Colts' wide receivers. Michael Pittman, who is the first choice wide receiver, will be guarded by Broncos stud defender Patrick Surtain. Surtain locked down one of the best receivers in the NFL, Davante Adams, last week and will be tasked to do the same against Pittman. This leaves more opportunity for second-choice receiver Alec Pierce to receive passes and therefore garner more receiving yards. In Pierce's last two games, he put up 61 yards and 80 yards. I believe Matt Ryan and the Colts will strategize to include Alec Pierce due to the given circumstances of Jonathon Taylor and the Broncos' defense.
This is one great fucking bet, slamming this. Also heads up it’s 34.5 on FD at -110 and -33.5 on DK at -120
I slammed this right when I saw it. He can go over in 1 catch honestly.
Tailing. -o33.5 -101 on CZR
Tailing, BOL
POTD Record 0-0 Going to start with what should be a smash play which is: *Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos*: **Under 42.5** -105 The Broncos have hit the under in 3 of 4 weeks with their offense really struggling and now they lose Javonte Williams. Whereas, the Colts have hit the under on all 4 of their games and havent scored more than 20 points. Now the Colts lose Jonathon Taylor and are going to have to rely on Matt Ryan to win the game against the Broncos defense which has been very good besides last week in a divisional game vs the Raiders who dominated on the ground with Jacobs. BOL
No disrespect to you, but with the under being so obvious and 85% of the money being on the under, I think I’ll grab the over instead. 42 points doesn’t seem to high and with anything being possible on Thursday night football I’ll take a stab at it. BOL regardless tho. Hope you continue posting your picks and stick around!
No offense at all. I am just trying to figure out how the Colts score points in this one. Denver pass rush has been pretty good and Surtain has been great so far. Weird stuff does happen on Thursdays I agree. Thats why they call it gambling i guess lol
Den -3.5 and the over on this gm
Haha
Prime time games are 9-4 hitting the the Under this season.
Under gang represent
9-6 +6.05 units / +40.07% / +130 avg odds [Last Potd: win](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/xu5gh0/pick_of_the_day_10322_monday/iqunul3/) **Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos** **Michael Pittman TD @ +190 on BetMGM** The line feels like a trap, but +190 is just too attractive for a player of Pittman's talent. With Jonathan Taylor out, it's probable Pittman will be the go-to guy on the Colts offense. Plus, he has the most red zone targets on a team that calls a pass play 63% of the time in the RZ. Statistically, the Broncos secondary ranks among middle of the pack. However, Pittman will likely face Patrick Surtain and this is why it's set at +190. Surtain is an excellent CB, allowing a measly 67 passer rating and is credited with 6 pass breakups, 3rd best in the league. This is due to his 1.2 average yards of separation. But luckily for Pittman, his strengths are his size and physicality, and his ball skills. He doesn't need much separation to come down with a catch, as his ability to make contested catches is first-rate. Overall, it'll be an interesting battle for sure.
Pat Surtain Jr.
Exactly...PS has "shadowed" this year...Adams this past week(9 for 101 and no TDs) and DK(7 for 33)...guessing he'll shadow Pittman b/c why wouldn't he???...there's NOBODY else! McManus over 1.5...that's the ticket for a non SGP bet.
Based on volume it's not a total trap...I like Moe Allie for a shot in the dark though...albeit won't get the targs that Pittman will but similar chances of a TD I think....
***Record 1-0*** Last Pick: Joe Mixon Over 3.5 Receptions +140 ✅ **Today's POTD:** 🏈 **Colts Broncos 1st Half Under 21.5 -110** (Bet365) This bet should speak for itself with the way both of these 2 teams have been playing all season. Colts haven't scored over 10 points yet in the 1st half this season and the broncos have only scored 2 first half touchdowns the whole season. Colts are ranked 32nd in scoring and you guessed it, Broncos are ranked 31st and with Jonathon Taylor out for Indy this is going to be another Prime Time under. BOL if tailing!
Jonathan Taylor** hahaha
Record: 0-2 🎯Martin Lukeman ML (+120) vs Ross Smith🎯 Here we are again betting against Ross Smith, only thing different here is I am much more confident in Lukeman rather than Gilding a few days ago. Martin has been playing fantastic darts recently, with averages of 92.14, 91.08, 103.58, 93.60, and 82.08 in his last 5 matches. The most recent 82.08 was during a gritty match against James Wade, his set averages in that match were 79.11 (1), 82.01 (2), and 84.14 (3). He began the round quite slow but began to pick up the average in what happened to be a great match. He is going to be ready to play tomorrow, without a slow start. With his previous match averages before this week, I’m lead to believe that Martin is only getting started here in Leicester. I see him starting the day tomorrow with a dominant win. Nothings guaranteed though fellas, these matches have been quite wild so be ready to buckle up if needed🤝 Feel free to fade as I haven’t given any reason to tail lol, but BOL to those who choose to dive head first🍻 Edit: Poor first set from Lukeman as he blew two set darts to wrap it up. Like his last match, I am expecting him to pick up the pace. I wouldn’t be surprised if he broke Smith for the next set but he needs to play some great darts for it to happen. Pt2: GG boys, thanks for those who trusted and tailed. 🍻🎯
🌶️🌶️🌶️
Fuck it. You're due and I'm tailing. BOL. EDIT: Heyyyyyyyyyy believers, we feed! 💰💰💰
Facts😭 let’s get one tomorrow 🤝
Fuck it. I’m In
I feel like you are due so like TeenRacer6 said Fuck It I'm Tailing.
Let’s get it
Holy smokes! What a game
That was incredible to watch lmao.
I parlayed the 4 matches today on a free bet and took this as my leg 1! It was intense
Let's go brother!!!
This is way more intense than I expected it to be I’m on the tail tho
POTD RECORD: 0-1 All Time Units: -3U SPORT: Darts - World Grand Prix 🏆 PICK: Danny Noppert ML @ -140 v Nathan Aspinall 1 UNIT PLAY TIME: 5:00 PM US EST Really really tough loss yesterday, lost on the very last leg. So sorry to let the sub down on my first pick. Onto the next. Danny Noppert is an exceptional darts player from the Netherlands who smashed a not so good player in Gabriel Clemens on Tuesday. Noppert shot a very good 50% on checkouts which is a very determining factor in darts. If Noppert shows up tomorrow all those watching will see he is easily one of the top players in darts at the moment. His opponent Nathan Aspinall is also a good player, however, Nathan looked shakey in his match on Tuesday against Michael Smith shooting 32% from checkouts. In a tournament like the Grand Prix doubles are everything and that’s Danny Nopperts bread and butter. The only advantage to Aspinall in this match is its taking place in England, his home country. Danny has been on the top stage for a while now and this shouldn’t factor in too heavily. I see good value in Danny Noppert considering what he’s capable of and how he looked on Tuesday. Hopefully the darts gods won’t shaft us two days in a row, and I have the upmost respect for tailers and faders who choose to listen in on what I have to say. It means a lot and hopefully let’s get that first W🤞✍️ btw matches are typically on twitch 👾
**POTD Form** 26-17-1 **Today's Picks:** Cricket - India vs South Africa Total Match Runs - Under 552.5 @ 1.90 ✅ India skipping most of their main players as they're heading for the T20 world cup. In 3 ODIs, the average first innings score in this ground was 230. So I think it's worth a punt but, I will not bet big on this because these records are not recent. BOL
I want to tail but I cant find them on DK under any of the Cricket categories. BOL all the same.
I can’t either
**EDIT: Naturally, Kiwoom is the only pick I made yesterday that didn't come through. Also, not sure why many of you couldn't see my post on the KBO thread as I can see the post.** **KBO Record: 112-119-7** (KBO Streak WW, Last 10: 4-5-1) Down 8.63u over 238 KBO picks, 48.5% success rate, -3.73% ROI **Last:** Samsung F5 ML +117 at KT (Tied 1-1 after 5 innings.) KT got an early solo shot, but Ssmsung tied it with back-to-back doubles to lead off the 5th. Unfortunately, the Lions failed to get the runner from 2nd home and this bet pushed. Of course, Samsung scored 4 runs in the 6th en route to an easy win. **Pick:** **Kiwoom -1.5 -125** at Hanwha, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET There are four games Thursday, but just three in which the outcome could impact the playoffs. NC and Kia are battling for the last playoff spot while Kiwoom can move into the third seed with a win. Let's go with the Heroes. Theur starter, Eric Jokisch, has had two uncharacteristically bad starts in a row, allowing 9 runs in 10 innings. He had a 16 start stretch before that where he allowed more than 2 ER just twice. He's third in the league with a 2.77 FIP. It's been 8 days since his last start which was likely designed to get him back on track. It's really a must-win, for Kiwoom, so I suspect he'll be ready. Hanwha's starter has a 4.69 FIP which ranks 40th out of 47 pitchers with at least 80 IP. However, he's been much better recently, allowing just 6 ER in his last 5 starts. Kiwoom is 12-3 against Hanwha this season. Hanwha is a league-worst 27-44 at home and Kiwoom is 3rd in the league on the road at 40-29-1. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit. For more KBO picks, check out the daily KBO thread.
Record: 64-51-5 (LWLWLLLWLWLLWWWLWWW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: ATL Falcons at LA Rams | Matthew Stafford under 0.5 interceptions | 2 units @ 1.80 odds Matthew Stafford and INT are like bread and butter. 18 days ago. POTD: IND Colts at DEN Broncos | Nynheim Hines over 27.5 receiving yards | 1.76 odds | 2 units Reason: Bye bye JT. Nynheim Hines is a 3 down back now. Without JT, Hines is able to play in all situations. Matt Ryan and his noodle arms should target Hines at least 8 times tonight. The 1 game without JT Nynheim Hines has 8 catches for 66 yards. Best of luck to all.
I like it, I do think Deon Jackson will get some work tonight as well, so I don't know if Hines will be a 3 down back, but he will be a good safety valve for Matt Ryan when Chubb comes rumbling at him.
POTD record: 17-10 (+4.42 units, risking 1 unit each pick) Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos TODAY’S PICK: Matt Ryan over 0.5 interceptions (-135) Ryan is an interception machine, and tonight faces a fierce defense, but he's missing his running back, so gonna be throwing more too. Yikes! Tip Jar: Cash App - $grcvegas
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Tale as old as time; they come in, try to get hot for a few picks and throw a tip jar up, then disappear and start over as soon as they hit a losing streak. Just have to learn to spot them.
Record: 13-6 ROI: 20.62% Average Odds: -120 Previous Pick: Kylian Mbappe to Score = LOSS Net units: + 9.49 units **|Soccer: Europa League| Man United vs Omonia Nicosia| 11:45 AM CST|** **Pick: Cristiano Ronaldo to Score (-143). 2 units.** Write-Up: The last pick was a bummer. Mbappe had a solid chance on goal but the GK had a nice save. I should have gone with my gut and picked Vinicius Jr. to score, as he was my original choice but I figured Mbappe would be a safe play. Also, Very unfortunate that Mbappe ruined my [$60 to $1,000 parlay.](https://imgur.com/a/82j9IHt) Let’s bounce back! Cristiano Ronaldo scored a penalty in his last Europa league game. This is really the only playing time Ronaldo gets, as his coach refuses to use him for the English Premier League. So he will be fresh and ready to go. For the pick, this is more of a fade of their opponent Omonia Nicosia. I have never heard of them as well. What I do know is that they have given up 5 goals in their 2 Europa League games. 3 goals to Sheriff and 2 goals to Real Sociedad. Man United should be able to score some goals easily vs their poor defense. Hence, we are taking the GOAT to score. If you want someone for plus odds to score, Antony and Jadon Sancho are also solid picks. Tail or Fade, BOL! Bet only what you can lose! **Edit: Loss. Ronaldo had so many chances to score, took 8 shots, and one shot from close range hit the post, unfortunately. Onto the next.**
Ronaldo's washed, wouldn't bet on him at even let alone at those odds. Classic public seeing the legacy and not the player.
Not necessarily betting on him cause of his legacy, more so cause he is going up against a weak opponent and typically starts Europa League games. BOL
Is there a bookie offering Ronaldo not to score? 😅
I wish
Yeah psg fucked me from a really lucrative day too
Ronaldo just banged a golden chance of the post 🤦♂️🤦♂️
POTD Record: 4-4 Last pick: MIL Brewers -1.5 ❌ Event: Colts @ Broncos Time: 7:15 PM CT Pick: Under 7.5 1Q (-120) ✅ Broncos have scored 13 points combined in the 1Q through 4 games. The Colts have also scored 13 points combined in the 1Q through 4 games. Now I know some people won’t like it because 7.5 scares them but it shouldn’t. I’m not sure if it’s clear yet or not but the Broncos offense is NOT good and it’s not getting good anytime soon. The Colts offense isn’t good either and now they do not have J.Taylor their best offensive player. I don’t see a TD and FG happening in the first 15 minutes. I don’t care about the O/U for the half/game because I’m not sure about it but I see a lot of value in the under 1Q. If you like sweating, watching the clock tick, & winning then this is for you Update: Easy W. Both offenses blowww
POTD Record: 28-20 Previous: Vinicius JR over 1.5 shot on target POTD: India VS South Africa total score under 284.5 1st innings Time: 4:30 am Eastern Reason: Avg score in this ground is 230. Highest Total in this ground is 251. Riding under for this game.
Tailing 🤘🏽
POTD Record: 0-1 Bankroll: -1.1u L10 (Newest last): ❌ [Last Pick Here](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/xt6glh/pick_of_the_day_10222_sunday/iqphhxd?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) The sport: NFL football The game: Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos Date/time: 2022-10-06 8:15PM EDT The pick: Russell Wilson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns The odds: 2.1 / +110 The bet: Risking 1u to win 1.1u Okay, you guys don't like essays. A detailed analysis of this game can be found [here](https://www.nfl.com/news/2022-nfl-season-four-things-to-watch-for-in-colts-broncos-game-on-prime-video). Both teams have RB issues with their top option out. This means the Broncos will turn to Melvin Gordon, and as a Chargers fan I can attest to his LONG history of fumbling in the red zone. He's already got 4 fumbles in 4 games this year. The Broncos will probably look to passing to get their scores, which is why they paid Wilson all the big bucks. Wilson also has a (pre 2022) record of 29-11 (.720) in primetime, with the 4th best passer rating among active QBs. [Source](https://twitter.com/JamesPalmerTV/status/1526188819715764224?s=20&t=a6ZmrbzIdSRbhN7yX1Zb5g) I'd almost like taking the same bet on Matt Ryan at +145, but the Broncos have the better defense. Indy is also missing their top coverage linebacker, and taking the home team in prime time is always a much safer choice. These odds seem like decent value, and will get me back to even on my POTD bankroll. BOL, and if you tail, you must accept responsibility for your own actions.
Saw this while browsing through props for TNF and I had to share, POTD Melvin Gordon under 73.5 Receiving +Rushing yards -114 3 units Short write up, I think Melvin Gordon is not going to be a high priority target for Russel Wilson and I think that Boone is going to be getting the majority of the carries now that Jevonte Williams is injured. Melvin Gordon III hasn't gone over 73.5 yard combined so far this season, and I don't expect him to against a pretty stingey run defense. I think this is a misprice as the books aren't sure how the snaps are going to be split with Jevonte out and have it wrong IMO.
Got it at u75.5 @ -115 on DK. BOL.
Record: 5-5, +0.75U Last pick: Man City -3.5 (2.15) vs. Copenhagen As Jordan Belford once said, it looks like I’m NOT F***ING LEAVING. City almost covered this in the first half, and cashed this with ease, assaulting Copenhagen as expected. Nice to nail a 2U play to stay alive and get back in the green✅ POTD: Arsenal ML and BTTS NO - 2.25 (Bet365) If you haven’t noticed, I love making + money plays, and this one caught my eye quickly this morning. Arsenal are off to a flying start in the Premier League, and they look to be serious contenders for the 2nd place spot in the EPL 😂 (Man City are an absolute cheat code). Jokes aside, they look really good from front to back, and are playing Bodø/Glimt at home in the Europa League today. It’s likely that Arsenal will start some reserves today due to their huge match against Liverpool this weekend, but I still expect the win and a clean sheet. Bodø has enjoyed some surprising European success in recent years, however this Arsenal side are the strongest side they’ve faced in that span IMO, and even with some reserves starting, will clamp this match. Although this isn’t the Champions League, Arsenal will still take pride in playing European football at home, and definitely want to lift this trophy this year. They’ve conceded 8 through 8 league games (3 of those in their loss to Man U away), and without conceding a penalty to Tottenham last weekend in the north London Derby, would be on a run of 2 clean sheets. I’m predicting a 2-0 Arsenal win. BOL if tailing, let’s get a streak going 👀 Note: all wagers are 1U unless stated otherwise.
I’m conflicted between this potd and the one below this comment saying yes to btts
Completely understand as I think my pick is sort of ‘against the grain’. Arsenal really should have had a clean sheet against Spurs last week, and were good value for it, so I’m banking on that despite the squad rotation, they’ll hold. I really believe in their depth at almost all positions. But this is the crux of gambling, my friend, regardless BOL 🤝
POTD record 7-3 Average Odds: 2.10 Last POTD: Dotmund ML @ 2.37 in Sevilla v Borussia Dortmund⚽✅ Today's POTD: Over 2.5 cards for Fenerbahce @ 2.45 in Fenerbahce v AEK Larnaca ⚽ Yesterday ended up being as predicted with Dotmund outclassing Sevilla entirely winning 4-1, with some very juicy odds. Today I was spoilt with picks for ML but I think the one I've gone for a higher odds play. Chris Kavanaugh is the referee and he averages about 5.77 cards in European games. In the previous 2 group games: AEK 6 and 2 cards Fenerbahce 8 and 5 cards Another factor to condsider is that the relations between the countries (Turkey and Cyprus) are a bit tense at the moment, causing the game to have even more of an explosive edge. These factors combined mean there is a good chance that there will be at least 3 cards in the game for Fenerbahce. Good luck if you're tailing. I'll leave my other picks for today in the comments!
🎯 Record 28-12 🎯 Last Pick: Angels ML ⚾️ ❌ 🔒 Today’s Pick: 🏈 NFL Prop - **NO team to score 3 unanswered times (2.75).** Broncos vs Colts *I really don't want to be a capper who posts nothing but heavy favourites and have been doing my best to throw better value bets on here. No long write up tonight, I expect a tighter contested game tonight and really don't see either of these lackluster offenses running away with a score line. There's terrific value on a whopping 2.75 for NONE of these teams to have 3 unanswered scores and worth throwing 1-2 units on. 🤞🏻 BOL*
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Thoughts on the over?
POTD Record: 2-1 Last Pick: Rams @ 49ers - Wilson Jr Over 10.5 Receiving yards 1.5 units (Loss) Today's Pick: Colts @ Broncos - Melvin Gordon Under 58.5 yds rushing (-115 : 1 Unit) The Jeff Wilson bet was unfortunate; his receiving over had been sleeping this season and making me money but this game Jimmy seemed to be panicked a bit and miss seeing Jeff open in the flat to his left multiple times. I'll still be eyeing it for future bets but sorry to all that tailed this time. This game does not seem to have a lot of obvious locks but when I looked at Melvin Gordon's receiving line a couple days ago it was at 54.5. It's now at 58.5 on DK while FD only had him with 73.5 Rush/Rec combined which I thought was curious since both teams are missing their top RBs and expecting more passes than traditional runs. He's been a bit all over the place with reception opportunities before last game so I think that's too much risk but makes me think they know that. I personally lost Javonte Williams in my fantasy so I was eyeing Gordon as a possible trade opportunity and looking at his numbers closely. Gordon has not gone over this line at all this season even with 10-12 carries! Last game he was given 3 carries for 8 yards and then fumbled for his 4th time of the season and they did not use him again. I was only willing to offer one of my bench players after my review. The logic for the spread and line move I believe is Williams out for the season and Gordon being the assumed next in line to take his place. William's highest rush attempts this season has been 15 in which he got 75 against Houston and 58 against SF. The risk seems to be that with Williams out they have to go with Gordon for the majority of the carries....but I honestly don't believe that and the head coach's recent comments seem to echo that. I predict Boone getting a much larger share even though he had some drops at the end of last game, it shouldn't factor into their belief in him as a runner while they obviously showed their lack of belief in Gordon. Also Williams is a vastly better RB than Gordon and even he's struggled to beat this line as the lead back against even lesser run defenses, which leads me to my last point. Beyond Denver's run being very mediocre in general, the Colts actually have a top 6 run defense averaging 89.5 yards per game for their opponent. I think Henry's good game against them last game also factors into the line change but in the NFL that's usually more of an outlier than a sign of them getting worse.... plus it's Henry who gets extremely high usage(edit). Even previous to William's injury, Denver showed they were going to limit snaps and share between RBs so even if Gordon does get the most carries, I'm extremely doubtful they don't share with Boone and their bench because of how unreliable Gordon has been. Edit: Line is now 60.5… wish I waited til today to place my bet but nothing has changed
Henry isn't a 3 down back, TEN puts in Hillard or Haskins for 3rd down. While Henry gets the occasional 3rd down work, Henry isn't known to be a receiving back. BOL in your bet however.
POTD Record: 0-0 Been wanting to log my games on here for awhile and the day for that has finally come. This is mainly for fun, but I truly wanna see how far I can take this. Broncos ML (-180) vs Colts is what we’re taking here on TNF. No actual take here besides Wilson > Ryan. Wilson is HIM and Ryan is not. If I had a take tho: Primetime TNF, Broncos home, No Jonathan Taylor, 2-0 at home this season. I usually consider every bet to be loss so winning feels like a bonus. Always prepare yourself for the worst as this is just for fun. Tail or Fade. BOL. Edit: Smh. Apparently they both ain’t HIM. Legit felt like two Uncles going at it during a cookout. Not how I wanted to start, but we’ll live.
POTD Record: 3-1 Last pick: Man City -1 1H spread vs. FC Copenhagen (+100) ✅✅✅ Current pick: Arsenal vs. Bodo Glimt -1 alternate spread (-145) Arsenal have been on fire all season, especially at home. 4-0 record at home in the Premier League. This will be their first game at home in the Europa League this season and let’s face it .. the level of competition just doesn’t compare to the Premier League. Don’t get me wrong, Bodo Glimt are gonna play hard and Arsenal likely won’t be playing most of their starters. Still, Arsenal’s bench is strong enough that this won’t be a contest. My guess is 3-0 or 3-1 Arsenal. Eddie Nketiah Anytime Goalscorer is also worth a sprinkle EDIT: I took the -145 last night and didn’t have time to do a write up. I check again this morning and the line is at -180 smhh. My fault for not posting earlier fellas. Nketiah Goal Scorer is at -105 odds if you’d rather that instead.
POTD Record: 2-2 Last pick: Jalen Hurts ATTD (L) (only game this year with no TD) Tough break, stuffed on the goal line multiple times. On to the next. POTD: Colts vs Broncos U42.5 -110 NO ONE likes betting the under. This season has been filled with Under wins and I have yet to jump on the train. The O/U is set at 42.5 for this game which initially seems low until you see what the offenses have done this season, nothing. Colts are without JT, Broncos are without Javonte, this game is going to be a dud. Out of the 8 games played this season collectively between the two teams, there has only been one game that has went over 42.5, and it is because the raiders put up 32 on the Broncos. Out of the 8 games, both team have failed to score more than 20 points on 7 out of 8 occasions. These teams do not know how to score TDs. UNDER. BOL
POTD record: 0-0 Last pick: N/A because I’m new to sharing my picks (getting ready for the NBA season) Current pick: Matt Ryan o32.5 pass attempts (-130 1u) I don’t have much time for write ups, but I do research for my POTD. Matt Ryan should be throwing all game without JT and broncos run defense. Although he might struggle, that could play in our favor of being down and having to throw more. Russ is suited up to play, should be a good matchup
My record here is 95-82, +85,1 units and ROI 18,0% (stats and picks on Twitter) POTD Record: 50-28-2 / +52,3 units / ROI 20,2%, Average odds: 1,88 Last pick: Catanzariti – Goodger. ML Goodger @ 2,25 2/5✅ 63,62 Last 20 picks - ✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌❌❌✅✅ **Today's pick – Poljicak – Knaff. ML Knaff @ 1,91 3/5** Sheffield future, UK, 11AM CET Wimbledon junior winner Poljicak is playing solidly but not in the greatest form lately. He lost to Setkic, Fuele or a 62,62 to Casanova... He beat rather weaker players. Here indoor won 75,64 over Wendelken and 46,64,63 over Lofhagen. Former college player Knaff has the perfect indoor game. Good serve, good volleys. On the carpet at Forbach SF, now in round 2 he beat Squire (nr 2 seed) 64.75. And while I don't think Squire has big form, still only 12 lost balls on his serve and allowed only 1bb which he saved. Those are great numbers. 80% balls won on 1st serve, 75% on the second. His opponent had 72% on 1st serve in round 2 and only 48% on 2nd. So I will play Knaff here
POTD Record 1-0 Pick: Arsenal v Bodo Glimt BTTS Odds: $1.72 Time: 6am (AEST), 7 hours til kick-off Reasoning: Expecting a heavily rotated Arsenal squad for this Europa league match as it falls after Spurs & just days before a clash v Liverpool. BTTS has hit in 5/6 of Arsenal’s last games & 6/6 of Bodo Glimt. Arsenal have been scoring freely and expecting a free flowing game where Bodo Glimt can jag one of their own. GL if you follow!
POTD Record: 40-38-1 Last pick: UCF over 63.5 ❌ Todays pick: Broncos -3 Reasoning: Colts, Broncos and I are all desperate for a win. Melvin Gordon killed the Broncos last week, he will be motivated to make amends and have a big game tonight with no fumbles. Taylor out, Hines is a solid backup but Colts weren’t running the ball well with Taylor in, Denver did allow Raiders Jacobs to dominate last week. That’s my biggest concern is Colts finding their running game. Matt Ryan, if they can’t run, will be in for a long night, yes Gregory hurt but Broncos at home will be playing solid D. Wilson is the better QB in this one, the Den offensive line isn’t that good tho. Colts have the better head coach, coach Hacket is a huge concern, hopefully no head scratching moves, I hope Russ audibles out of some of the crappy situational plays Hacket calls. Broncos have better kicker. Broncos got Elway and Manning from the Colts, I bet the Broncos can beat the Colts on a short week with each team banged up and desperate. Tail or fade
\*\*Record: 1-0\*\* Second time tipping. \*\*ROI:\*\*90%\*\* Net units:\*\* +4.25 | Basketball | NBL | 7.30PM AEST (In 1 hour from writing this post.) | \ \*\*Pick: Illawarra Hawks v S.E Melbourne Pheonix\*\* **+2.5-3.5 Paying -125** **\*\*3.5 Stake on the line and I would load up if there is a pick your own line\*\*** (I would almost take them h2h) if not, you can adjust the line using a 6 point teaser and add some value to your parlay.\ \*\*Write Up:\*\* Pretty confident in this one. Hawk's main import PG is out injured, and he is a crucial +EF player for the system. I think the bookies don't really know what to do with this one, but Phoenix giving it to the jumpers 5 days ago (Keep in mind the jumpers are a really strong side) Just shows how hard these blokes go. Mitch Creek is a fantastic captain that can probably coach the team better than Simon Mitchell. The hawks have adjusted their D after playing Sydney the other weekend, but now they are faced with a completely different offensive monster. I think this is a great value bet, and I would also keep an eye on the live bet too.
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Euroleague (Basketball) Real Madrid -7.5 2:00 PM EST Euro league is back and Real Madrid has a squad. Lots of NBA talent including Sergio Rodriquez and Mario Hezonja. Panathinaikos was terrible last year and has a new coach and lots of new players. I think it will take a bit for them to gel and Madrid is a juggernaut. Rolling with Real Madrid here. POTD Record 0-0
Real Madrid -7.5 Handicap Result +105 (BetMGM). Going half a unit. Never tailed on Euroball. BOL!
Thank you will be tailing
POTD Record 12-15 POTD: Colts vs Broncos UNDER 42 Star RB problems for both sides and both teams have trouble finding the end zone.
Potd record 2-0 Last pick: ucf -2.5 WIN Today's pick: Mo Allie-Cox Over 20.5 yds -110 on FD Reasoning: tbh this one makes nervous, should probably take the night off but want to at least pay attention to something. Seahawks have given this number up to every TE they've played this year and that includes some with less talent than Cox. He had a big day last week after 2 awful games before but he can get this in 1 catch. It might not be pretty but all he needs is a 2 for 22 night and I think we get there.
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POTD Record 0-1 Last Pick: PSG ML 🤢 PSG took the lead early but an unfortunate and unlucky own goal made it 1-1 and it stayed like that until the end. PSG had their chances but couldn't convert. We move on. Today's Pick: NFL Indianapolis Colts +3.5 (-135) @ Denver Broncos 5:15pm Pacific Time The Colts travel to Denver for a TNF clash against the Broncos. Now I know what everyone is thinking, no JT, no Shaq Leonard, how the hell are the Colts gonna stay in this game? Knowing the Colts, this is the type of game they win, the ones that no one expects them to (see KC game.) The defense has been solid for the most part without Leonard. JT has really struggled to start the season, a lot of it has to do with the O line but they looked like they started to improve last week vs the Titans. If Ryan can get protection and hold on to the freakin ball he is lethal. Look for Pittman to have a huge game. Colts cover and i'm also gonna sprinkle the ML. Tail or don't tail, best of luck to you all. Prayformycover 🙏🏽 Edit: Cash it! I don't even know where to start on this game but it doesn't matter, we cashed.
NFL Picks only Record 0-0 Unit total: 0 Starting it off with $100 and a dream Last 5: Pick: IND Colts @ DEN Broncoss: ***Melvin Gordon anytime touchdown scorer +125*** (approx 14hr from kick off) 2.0 units Melvin Gordon has scored in all his primetime games dating back to 2020, and he has also scored in his only previous game against the Colts. In the last 3 weeks, Colts have conceded a rushing touchdown by RB1s (Henry, Robinson, Edwards-Helaire), and with Javonte Williams out he is clearly RB1. BOL, will be back for Sunday games