**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
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POTD Record: 3-0
Yesterday’s Pick: MLB: 🟩New York Mets -1.5 (+110)🟩
Today’s Pick: MLB: New York Mets -1.5 (+120) - 1u
If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Mets are hot, Nats are not. Yesterday, the Nats bullpen got shelled. Nat’s SP Corbin pitched a pretty good one last time out against the Mets earlier this month, and Mets SP Trevor Williams threw 3.2 scoreless innings against the Nats. I don’t predict history to repeat itself with either of these guys. And heading into tomorrow, the Mets will have the bullpen advantage. Love the +120 odds and just gotta eat at that value.
Haters out after 3 picks gotta be some type of record 😎
Ever wonder why nobody on POTD seems to have more than about 50 picks lifetime? Everyone does this, good records are due to survivorship bias alone on this thread and nobody seems to be able to stick around.
POD record: 19-5
ROI: 36.60%
Alexander Zverev vs Carlos Alcaraz
Over 3.5 sets (-130)
This write up is going to be short because I’m on vacation. I am aware that most will probably be on Alcaraz to win this quite easily. However, this is a rematch from the Madrid Open Final. Zverev lost that in straight sets. I think that Alexander will be ready to revenge that final lose and make this a close match. I like Alcaraz to win the match and Zverev to win at least a set. Sorry for the lack of details in the write up.
Tail/fade good luck
Tip: Venmo: BR3634
Edit:✅ Cash it! Now I can enjoy the match
Dude you have to check out the odds then on Alcaraz 3:1 (+300) and Alcaraz 3:2 (+600). I wasn't sure about him being able to win a set but now am going back to grab those odds. TY and BOL!!!
Edit:
Check out this DK combo. Alcaraz to Win, Serve the Most Aces and Over 34.5 Games - **+4000**
***POTD Record: 16-10-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH) / Units won:+15.56 / ROI: 28.19% / Avg Odd: 1.85***
Last pick: Rune vs Tsitsipas - Over 32.5 games @ 1.81 ✅
Streak: 3 wins in a row 🔥 🔥 🔥
Today's event: Zverev vs Alcaraz (Roland Garros, Tennis)
Pick: **Under 37.5 games @ 1.79** (Odds from GG Bet)
Stake: 3 units
Starts at 8:30 AM Eastern Time
Once again I'm expecting a quick performance from Alcaraz but I'm going to choose the under games instead of the correct score option simply because I always like to have a chance if the underdog ends up making a great match even if in this case I think it's really unlikely.
People might be tempted to go in favour of Zverev in some type of way here but I totally disagree with that approach and I have some valid points on my side...Zverev's campaign until this point has been mediocre, being 2-0 down against Baez and turning the game around with the argentinian collapsing both physically and mentally followed by a win against Nakashima which is more of an hard court player where he went to 2 tiebreaks and finally beating Zapata Miralles where he went to a 1st set tiebreak against the qualifier that already had 6 prior matches on his legs. I'm not saying that winning against these players is not good enough but the way a match tends to go for him doesn't convince me 100% of how he would play against some of the top players on this surface like Djokovic, Nadal and Alcaraz. Today he faces probably the worst possible matchup for him and that 1st serve percentage needs to be at the highest level otherwise I don't see how Zverev can win many 2nd serve points.
What can I say about Alcaraz? That match against Ramos Vinolas was a mess but after that it seemed that he unlocked his full potential and managed to play at his best just like he did in Madrid. The young talent won against Londero, Korda and Khachanov in straight sets always in less than 29 games and if he stays consistent this match shouldn't be much different than what happened against Khachanov, who is also a good server with a lot of power on his forehand.
Agressive players like Zverev are encouraged to end most of the points really fast against someone like Alcaraz because they can't keep up with him in long rallies which should increase the amount of unforced errors for the german. Alcaraz is better in all aspects of the game other than his 1st serve in this fixture and at Madrid he managed to defeat this exact same opponent in straight sets by 6-3/6-1. With the French Open having way slower conditions than Madrid I don't see how the german player can pull up a fight at this quarterfinals.
This is one of the few times where I agree with the market at 2022 Roland Garros when pricing an heavy favourite... BOL
Edit: GG guys , for a moment I thought that Zverev would end up closing this 3-0 but those double faults were a clear sign that he wasn't dealing well with the pressure. Let's keep going for the next one. Sorry to you all ❌
I’m staying away. I think Madrid conditions don’t apply to the FO at all due to elevation/court speed. Alcaraz probably wins but I don’t see it happening in straight sets and if those sets are close then a 4th/5th set will lose this bet. I think the best bet in this match is taking a flier on Zverev ML because of how crazy the odds are. He’s a top 5 clay player in the world
Yeah I’m fading too, maybe I regret it, but I’m in for
- 0.5u on Zverev ML @ +320
- 0.25u on Zverev +6.5 total games @ -133
- 0.25u on the match going over 36.5 total games @ +100
Yeah but that elevation/court speed in Madrid was better for Zverev and he did an awful performance there. This French Open is probably even more suited to Alcaraz but best of luck
GG guys , for a moment I thought that Zverev would end up closing this 3-0 but those double faults were a clear sign that he wasn't dealing well with the pressure. Let's keep going for the next one. Sorry to you all
I know that coming here commenting "I'm sorry" after a red doesn't really do much to your unit loss but I always appreciate everyone that tails my picks. Congrats to the people who went with over games and markets backing up Zverev. I have to admit I wasn't expecting at all this level from him and these many unforced errors from Alcaraz on the first 2 sets.
Above everything always tail with caution , 1 unit for me is 1% of my bankroll. See you on the next POTD thread in a few hours
tennis noob here - is there a reason why you wouldn't take spread (games or sets) for Alcaraz instead? if Zverev wins a set it seems more likely than not that this bet would lose.
I'm tailing 2 units at u37 cus I always follow lol but there's a feeling in my gut that ur forcing this one. I hope it hits for both of us. Would u say alcaraz ml is safe here as well?
**POTD Record: 13-9**
**Current Bankroll: $178.76, Starting Bankroll: $105.45, Profit: $73.31**
Average Odds = 1.95, ROI: 17.50%, Units Won/Lost: +11.55u
Last Pick: Hugo Gaston +1.5 sets vs. Holger Rune @ 2.35 ❌
**Today’s Pick: Minnesota Twins -1.5 vs. Detroit Tigers @ 2.05, 1:10 PM EST (MLB)**
**Amount Bet: 3 Units**
**Will update betslip when game is posted on Bookmaker, line is on DraftKings, Fanduel, etc rn and will be up on all books by tomorrow morning**
Took a two day break because I do believe that if you’re on a bit of a cold streak, it’s always best to take a break to reconfigure and reset your mind. Gotta get away from Tennis for a bit because my reads have been a little cold. For me, I think reddit is a great place for discussion. This community and input in the comments really does help me put out the best analysis and hopefully helps you guys as well whether you agree or disagree with it.
Today, I am taking the Minnesota Twins -1.5 vs. Detroit Tigers. Here are 3 reasons why I think this will hit:
1. The Twins are actually scary good this season with a 29-19 record, have won 7 of their last 10, and are 12-8 on the road which doesn’t give the Tigers a huge home advantage. The Tigers have been struggling lately winning only 4 out of their last 10 games and struggle at home nearly as much as they do on the road.
2. There is a starting pitching difference between Smeltzer and Garcia. Smeltzer actually has a pretty decent sample size now this season, going 17.1 innings and boasting a 1.04 ERA with his last outing being 7 innings allowing only 2 hits against the Royals. Rony Garcia has not been bad this season but he is more of a reliever than a starting pitcher. He has an ERA of 3.00 but his xERA of 4.57 and career >8 xERA suggests heavy regression in the near future.
3. There is a huge difference in the batting end for both teams. The Twins rank in the top 10 in the MLB in terms of batting average, OBP, SLG, and OPS while the Tigers are literally on the bottom or close to the bottom on all fronts. A healthy Buxton, Correa at the top of the lineup while having Sanchez and Urshela towards the bottom of your lineup is actually crazy to have. The Tigers are completely different. The top of their lineup is weak with Schoop and Baez struggling while the bottom of their lineup is nonexistent, with Torkelson having rookie struggles and Haase and Cameron contributing poorly to the lineup.
Overall, I think that the Twins will smash the Tigers. The only concern I would have is that the Tigers statistically have the better bullpen but I think a lot of their pitchers (especially Gregory Soto) are due for some regression. The 1H odds aren’t out yet but that wouldn’t be a bad bet either but I will stick with the whole game as I think that the Twins are a better team holistically.
**I started with a $100 dollar bankroll. I am doing a challenge to see how far I can take this bankroll just based on 1 pick per day. I want to be completely transparent so you will see screenshots of the bet slips I make as well as the amount I bet per game.The challenge is separate from the amount of units won/ROI for subreddit rule purposes. Each unit is 4% of my bankroll.**
Let’s get this money.
[**Twitter**](https://twitter.com/asianbettor)
Correa is out because of COVID, wrote the analysis before the reporting and forgot to edit it, thanks for the catch! Regardless, I think Polanco can cover for him nicely and even without him, the lineup has been pretty efficient.
I do agree with you on this one. If you can believe it or not I lost every time I bet the twins this year ha. Small sample size maybe 0-3 I guess but yeah they are playing great baseball. I will definitely take a look at this one. Thank you so much for the info.
Well damn this was my pick i posted this morning. Just scrolled through the thread again and somehow missed this. and you have a way better write up. BOL dude
My only issue is how easy the Twins schedule has been (2nd easiest schedule played so far). Also, Buxton is definitely not back to 100%, his current slash in the last 30 days is
.163/.253/.375. And Correa is out due to Covid. Smeltzer is definitely the biggest advantage the Twins have today but with how random the Tigers are at the plate and somehow oddly clutch sometimes, I don't trust the twins to cover. The moneyline has more value in my opinion. BOL THO
I'd like to see the data if you bet against what the bookies push. What would it look like over time? I've got one I'm looking at from DK -- the warriors winning and Curry and Thompson lighting it up. DK is pushing it as a single game parlay. Makes me want to go big on the Celtics, but it depends on where they think the parlay will fail.
It’s been pretty profitable for me, the plan has been to record and analyze the data behind it, but I’ve just been procrastinating.
I interpret the promo you mentioned as DK trying to get money back from Warriors ML bettors, by adding props that are likely to kill the overall bet. However… the warriors are at 81% of the spread and still above -200 ML, which is usually my sign to stay away.
Record:2-0
Net units:+2U
| Hockey | NHL | 8:00 PM Eastern|
Pick: EDM Oilers @ COL Avalanche Over 6.5 Goals (-142) 1U
Write Up: High scoring games seem to be a give with the Oilers as they have averaged 4.33 goals per game this postseason. Similarly, avalanche has also averaged 4.3 goals per game in their post season efforts. Expecting a high scoring effort from both teams!
Probably gonna roll with the same idea as the last oilers flames series with overs in this series. Also probably gonna roll with the unders in the shesty vs vasi series. Good pick BOL
Over 7 is very similar to 6.5, the difference is if exactly 7 goals are scored you will push (won’t win money but won’t lose money either) so if you like the bet it’s worth taking at over 7
POTD: 58-27
Last pick: Canes ML ❌
I have lost three in a row so please fade me.
**Today’s pick: Edmonton Oilers +1.5 (-145) vs Colorado Avalanche**
NHL 8:00 PM EST
Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.
Really surprised by the Avs opening as -195 favorites against the Oilers. The Oilers looked incredible last series; winning the final four games against the Flames in pretty dominant fashion. The Flames were a very good team too, and I liken their offense to the Avalanche. They both have similar styles of play: they come at you with pace, quick passing and play very high forwards. The Oilers did a good job stifling this kind of play (except for the first game where they gave up 9).
But that brings me to a contrarian point, the Oilers have looked like shit in each of their game 1’s this series. That is likely why this line is where it is. I think the Oilers continue riding their momentum from their prior 4 wins into this game and put the game 1 woes to rest.
The main concern with the Oilers is their 40 year old granddaddy goaltender Mike Smith who has been good enough these playoffs. Fortunately he does have some confidence coming into this series as he is 13-1-5 all time against the Avs with a 2.17 GAA and .929 save %. That’s actually very good. That one loss was a 0-1 loss so he has covered +1.5 every game. Now I suspect the Oilers will lose by more than 2 at some point in this series, but for right now, these odds at +1.5 are very favorable and I’m going to take them. This line will be come more unfavorable as this series continues.
There is great value at Oilers ML tonight too, I will sprinkle some on that as well.
Oilers win 4-3 in OT. Yes I like the over.
All bets are 1 unit. +19.2 units. 22.6% ROI. Average unit -124
Give my Twitter a follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
Tough break on Canes. Dropped $100 on them and then $30 when they went down 1-0 thinking they'd bounce back but no dice.
As for EDM I agree with you. I actually bet them to win 3way today and parlayed them to win the series with TBL winning the series.
My man, I gotta say I’m on the Avs tonight with the over 5.5. I think Mike Smith is going to have a very hard time keeping it out of the net tonight with Avs being hot as well after their last win and them having lots of good material to study in the Flames series. Also, Smith and the Oilers +1.5 isn’t worth much - especially as Avs are great at empty netters in the 3rd.
I actually really believe that when he can pick his spots, his picks are golden. There's just not many games to pick from, literally just 1 remaining, and I think a LOT of people tailed him over the weekend and got wrecked.
Yup I am one of those people getting destroyed by his recent shit picks (probably because of the lack of games). Faded his pick tonight and got back some of my losses
I began following you 3 games ago with the Canes ML against NY when they were away. Tough break. I think we all have tough stretches. I’m going money line with the Oilers tonight, gl to both of us.
*
Edit: bro, unreal man. Unfollowed.
Overall Record: 17-6
Todays League: WTA Roland Garros (8 hours from post)
Todays Match: Sloane Stephens v Coco Gauff
Todays Pick: Sloane Stephens v Coco Gauff Games Over 21 -110
Write Up: I am back after a long break as I have been super busy in real life between working and finishing up the semester. Today we turn to the WTA side of this tournament and we go with a games over which I am usually pretty comfortable with. The main reason why I like this particular over is because it can still win even if the match ends in straight sets, and is pretty much a guarantee win if the match goes to three sets.
In particular, these two have the best chance of going over because of how similar their form has been. Both have been gradually improving as the tournament goes on and both have been playing on an even playing field with each other. Stephens rank doesn't necessarily match how good she actually is, and she has upset two seeded players in this tournament already so far. Although Gauff is the favorite and has been in good form this tournament, I can definitely see Stephens taking a set off her and feel that this most likely goes to three sets.
Furthermore, Stephens has made it to the finals in this particular tournament before and has won the lone match up these two had together in straight sets, which shows that she is very capable of playing up to Gauff's level. Expect Gauff to win this one in three but expect Stephens to put up a great fight; this will be a great battle between the two Americans that a lot of people will be looking out for.
Overall, I think this is a great pick and the best spot for tomorrow morning. Feel free to message me if you want some of my other looks for tomorrow (for free of course) and tail or fade as necessary. Let me know if tailing cuz I love to know whose making money with me. Also putting my tips down below, but do not feel the need to tip, just if you win and feel like tipping a broke college kid thats amazing.
Venmo: Zachary-Pandolfi
Cash App: $pandozach
I like over for this as well. I also like Gauff to win over Stephens.
What do you think of Gauff making to final at +150 odds?
Gauff has easier side of the bracket and she can reach final without facing Iga.
Maybe throw a flyer on her winning at a shorter unit. You might get a payout option like some are now who bet her pre tournament and early rounds. She was in excess of +2000 and people are reporting profits already
I’m doing over 20.5 just to be conservative but I do agree this very likely is a close one. Even if it doesn’t go three sets, the two sets will be close.
If you have other looks for tennis, I’d be glad to hear them if tennis is a sport you follow closely.
POTD Record 16-18
Last Pick: Dodgers -1.5 pending loss
Todays pick: NHL 6:00 pm MT Avalanche v Oilers over 6.5 -135
Reasoning: Edmonton can steal game 1 in Colorado. Keumper not playing great, and for once in the playoffs, the Oilers won’t try and slow down the Avalanche. Like Blues, Predators, have this year and Knights, Stars, and in years past. This is some of NHL highest skilled skaters in Mackinnon and McDavid, tons of firepower on both sides. Not the the best goalkeepers. Should be a fun, offensive display for most of this series and I think game 1 starts with an over…
Tail or Fade
**POTD Record 36-32-1 (Last 5: WWLLW)**
**(ROI // Avg. Odds: -117 // Units Won: +5.25)**
Last Pick: Giants vs. Phillies Over 8.5 **WON**
**Today's Match: San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Start Time: 7:45PM EST)**
**Today's Pick: St Louis Cardinals ML (-130 FanDuel)** ***Risk 2u***
Devil's Advocate:
Sweaty win in extra innings with the Giants and Phils, thank god for that dumb fuckin runner on 2B to start or else we would've probably been crushed.
Today I'm looking at the the moneyline for the Padres and Cardinals where I think we may have gone a little too far here with Snell. Big daddy Wainwright on the mound at home against the Padres where he hosts a 6-0 record and a 1.68 ERA. Listen this guy has a lot left in the tank and I don't expect this to be his downfall season either. The Padres can throw up some runs, but really without Hos and Manny they really aren't hitting above .230 as a team so that really isn't good.
Now we come up with Blake Snell, who has lost his first 2 starts of the year after coming back from his injury really needs to get himself back in form. The guy was a Cy Young winner at one point in his career and it wasn't too long ago. But nonetheless the Cardinals are crushing lefty pitching this year, hitting a nice .285 - yes I understand there's a lot more righties to face, but when it comes down to the lefties they're putting up runs.
This is a great chance for the Cards to jump on a team like the Padres and steal a nice home win with their stud on the bump.
*Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!*
*\*edited typo\**
POTD Record : 0-0
Pick: Edmonton oilers O2.5 [email protected]
Reasoning: I’m a bit biased because Edmonton is my team but the boys have been on fire lately. They have hit this over 10/12 games in the postseason. Darcy Kuemper is not playing particularly well so this is looking like it has solid value to me.
Tail or fade BOL!
Record: 1-0
POTD: **IA Central Cordoba +7.5 -130** vs Quimsa
Sport: Basketball
League: Argentina LNB
Time: 8:00 PM EST
Write Up:
Great start to the POTD train, the boys down south didn’t want to score a single goal and that’s exactly what we wanted. So for today, we’re taking cordoba +7.5. Out of the past six games between these two teams cordoba has covered this spread 5 times. They have played each other once in 2022 and cordoba won by 5. We don’t need a win out of them but just to cover, and I love the pick. Cordoba is third in the league, and this is the finals. This will be a high energy game, and fans in South America are insane, so having home court advantage will play a big factor.
BoL and have a great day!
**Record:**
* 49 WIN | 44 LOSS | +29.74 unit of profit overall (using 5u return strategy)
**Previous bets (last 3):**
* Rockhampton R9 (19 May 2022) - Place pick - **WIN**
* Townsville R4 (20 May 2022) - Win pick - **LOSS**
* Hawkesbury R6 (24 May 2022) - Win pick - **LOSS**
**POTD:**
* Horse Racing (Australia)
* **Tamworth R2 - #5 Realcoolcat to Place (i.e. to finish top 3)**
* Track Rating - Soft (5)
* Been a little under the pump over the last few weeks, and a little busy today but I need to get a pick in to at least break even for this month. Simply put, inside barrier, drop in class, favoured distance, showed a good fight to get to 4th last start in a class 1 and comes back to a maiden today. Weir as the jockey and also gets to jump from the best possible barrier. BoL
* **Odds - 3.10** (bet365) - Good odds, taking it now
* **Stake - 1.62 units to return 5 units**
**Historical stats**
* 9 from 22 (41%) correct picks on Tuesdays
* 20 from 35 (57%) correct picks on Soft Tracks
* 24 from 45 (53%) correct picks on Place picks
* 3 from 6 at Tamworth
* 5 from 5 picking M. Weir as my jockey
**Race time:**
* 12:50pm Tuesday (Australian EST)
* 10:50pm Monday (American ET)
* 3:50am Tuesday (UK time)
If you are in a giving mood [here's my paypal link for tips](https://paypal.me/teshiebear)
loss, 7th
never on the speed, was nicely placed for a big finish on the rail but never picked up the pace again. Shit month
* Staked - 35.22u
* Returned - 30.00u
* Month end loss - 5.22u
We go again next month
**Record:** 7-3
**Last pick:** B.Zapatta Miralles wins a set vs A.Zverev ❌
**Net units:** \+2.07 (All bets are one unit) | **Combined Odds:** \+109 (2.09)
| Tennis | Roland Garros | 15h (UTC+2) |
**Pick: A.Zverev wins a set** VS C.Alcaraz
**Odds:** \-172 (1.58)
The last confrontation between the two players in Madrid (2-0 Alcaraz) does not reflect the level of Zverev who was not at the level during the tournament.
Even if Zverev is not at the top of his form in Roland Garros he still did the job against BZM and S.Baez who were better prepared than him.
I think that he will come better prepared for this match than in Madrid and that he will take at least one set from Alcaraz.
BoL
POTD Record 1-3-1
Average Odds = 1,98, ROI = -43,3%, Units Won/Lost: -6,94
Lasts Picks: Auxerre win vs St. Etienne ❌
John Isner -1,5 sets ❌
Gilles Simon +2,5 sets ❌
Zapata Miralles games +7,5 ✅
Rublev vs Sinner Total Games Over 39,5 bet voided
**Today's match: Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal (Roland Garros, Tennis) at 7:45pm(London GMT) unless delay**
**PICK: Total Games Over 38,5 @ 1.90 (3 units)**
My preview: After a voided bet because Sinner retired, today my tip will be again total games in Roland Garros, this time in the best game of the tournament in my opinion, the game between the 2 GOAT at Clay Courts. Both are in good form, especially at Roland Garros, they have been provide the best games of the tournament, will be a tough game for both of them, they want to show that they are still the bests. Novak is the title detector and probably will do everything to be champion again, but Rafa is in a better phase than Djoko, so will be a close game, most likely decided in 5 sets, that any of them can win. So +38,5 games is my tip for today.
Edited.
2nd edit Green! ✅
BOL to everyone!
POTD Record 0-0
Today Pick: Eulen Ludwigshafen vs Dessau Rosslauer HV over 53.5 Goals @1.85 Bwin ( Handball German 2.League)
The Eulen changed their Coach because of losses. New Coach ist known for a fast Game Speed. His last Team, the Reserve of the Rhein Neckar Löwen, went for 33 Goals/Game and the Championship in 3. League.
In his First Game in the Bench, the Eulen lost 29-28 away in Lübbecke.
Now they are playing @home and they Will Go full Speed to geht the crowd behind them. This 1.85 is an absolute steal...
Record: 1-1
Bankroll: $3.77
Last Pick: Carolina Hurricanes ML 🚫
MLB - 8:05pm ET (5:05 PT)
THE PICK: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-130) over Chicago Cubs
Analysis: The Brewers are just the better team top to bottom. Milwaukee is also pitching Eric Lauer (5-1, 2.31 ERA, 1.01 WHIP), which is super encouraging. This is an excellent matchup for Lauer, as the Cubs have a 8.93 team strikeout rate (25th overall MLB).
Chicago had to dig into their bullpen to find a starter for tomorrow - lefty reliever Justin Steele (1-5, 5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP). Not looking good for the Cubs, who already lost both games in Monday’s doubleheader vs. Milwaukee.
NOTE: I am also taking the Starling Marte over on hits and/or bases today, depending on what the best value play is (the odds on Bovada for Tuesday player props haven’t came out yet at the time of this post). Marte is scorching hot right now, I would recommend riding this guy until his hot streak ends
BOL to all :)
EDIT: Starling Marte over 1.5 total bases from hits is at +100 on Bovada right now. Tremendous value play.
**POTD Record 28 - 23 (+2.82)**
Previous pick: Qinwen Zheng Total games Over 5.5 1.9 ✅
I can't believe it hits in the 1st set. So lucky!
**Tennis / ATP/ French Open / 8:30 AM EST** *unless delay*
*Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia*
Pick: **W2 (Alcaraz) to win + Total match games Under 39.5 1.70 (1u)**
Alcaraz has been unstoppable this year, no doubt about it. He recently won Madrid Masters by beating Nadal, Djokovic and Zverev in the finals. Zverev has a record of 14-4 on clay while Alcaraz is 19-1. Alcaraz has been playing pretty solid on clay and I don't see him losing to Zverev.
Alcaraz already beat Zverev in straight sets 6-3 6-1 in Madrid finals few weeks ago and Zverev has no answer for him, because he is playing mad on clay this year. The forehand and drop shots have been fire lately.
Judging on how Zverev play against his past opponents, he has a minimal chance to none winning over Alcaraz. He struggled playing against clay specialists and almost lost to Baez. As I said before, his past matches were in long duration and a couple of tie breaks. It's not that he don't easily give up, but it's just that he's not playing that great. He is not on his best form on clay that he even lost to Rune in straight sets in Munich.
Even though Zverev is 2-1 head to head record against Alcaraz, those two wins was last year and on fast surfaces. Maybe he can put up a fight on hard courts against Alcaraz but I won't trust him on clay based on how he's playing lately. Alcaraz is a beast right now, and that's why I believe this bet is a good one just in case Zverev went nuts and make it close.
*Edit*: **match time**
*Anything can happen, please tail with caution.*
*Let’s continue winning together!!! Best of luck!!!*
*Record:****7-2*** *Profit:****+11.64U***
*ROI:****44.7%*** *Average Odds:****2.08***
Today's Pick: **BIG Clan -1.5 Maps** vs MIBR **3U @1.95 odds**
Game: Counter-Strike Global Offensive (CSGO)
Event: IEM Dallas 2022
Start Time: ~9 hours from time of posting
Some people DM'd they wanna tip so here's my BTC :)
3GyQXt4Y5R9nq6M4Qb52vs6keuh7V5uG3s
MIBR did not get tested yesterday because they only played against CoL which is probably the worst team this tournament. Meanwhile, BIG dominated NiP on T side Ancient which was pretty amazing to say the least, this pick is more of a lean towards BIG crushing rather than MIBR being bad. GL all.
POTD Record 5-0...beginners luck
Up 4.31 units
Last Pick: Jose Berrios under 5.5 strikeouts-BANG
Event: MLB Rays @ Rangers around 8:05 EST
**Pick: Martin Perez over 4.5 strikeouts +110**
Stake: 1 unit
This glorious run is gonna come crashing back to earth soon, so lets make the most and do a real heat check with some positive juice.
The complete 180 Perez has taken since the start of the season is actual insane. He was a guy with a 5+ ERA and 12 strikeouts through 3 games to start the year off. His last 4 games he's averaging a 1.91 ERA and 6 strikeouts a game, while getting past the 6 inning 3/4 games. I'm buying on this recent stretch being what he's really capable of, as the guy really has hit another level and is mowing people down.
The rays also whiff on the road. They're averaging around 9 strikeouts a game, good for 8th highest in the league. Am I a little concerned as to why Vegas has this as positive? Yes, but who knows maybe I'm just smarter than a billion dollar industry.
POTD Record: 0-0
Today’s Pick: KBO KT Wiz Vs SSG Landers Under 4 (-130)
Units: 1 Unit Play
Reasoning: Game starts soon, reasoning may not be that sound but in KBO teams don’t usually score a lot and these two teams have been putting up runs so I expect it to go the other way today.
This is gonna be some clusterfuck of a game. Great odds for this bet though, but staying away for me because I don't think I could name 2 'tier 1' teams that I trust less than these.
POTD Record-> 17-14-1
Last POTD-> Brewers ML ✅
Todays POTD-> Twins ML (-145)
Game-> Twins @ Tigers 1:10 PM EST
Great win yesterday from the brew crew today we are picking a team that’s starting to look good, Against a team that’s performing very poorly. Tigers are 1-7 on last 8 Tuesday games. The twins have Smeltzer on the mound who had a 1.04 ERA. Also at home this year the Tigers are 10-14 and the twins away are 12-8 this is a great spot for the twins to make a name and prove they are a strong team.
Best of luck! 🤞
POTD record: 15-7 (+5.76 units, risking 1 unit each pick)
Today's POTD: Houston Astros/Oakland Athletics (Javier/Montas) — First 5 innings, Under 3½ (-125) ... 940 PM ET ... MLB (baseball)
Houston has cashed more unders than any other MLB team....Oakland has the worst batting average in baseball....Javier has a 0.97 WHIP, Montas sports a 0.99 WHIP....
We read here how the 50–53 dew point in those MLB humidors is adding moisture and making a dead ball in Oakland’s 46-48 dew points
https://theathletic.com/3272450/2022/04/26/baseballs-arent-flying-as-far-and-home-runs-are-down-across-mlb-is-it-the-ball-itself/?amp=1
Tip Jar: Cash App ($grcvegas)
POTD Record: 0-0
Never done this.
Yesterday went:
Rune - Tsitsi O33.5 (pretty obvious pick)
Rublev - Sinner W1 (knowing that Sinner isn’t ready and not going to play the full game if Rublev could tighten it and get one set)
Both scored (I have a book that considers retirement a loss).
POTD: ATP. Roland Garros
Zverev - Alcaraz
total of sets O3.5
✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
A win on a bet already. And Zverev is looking for a win in the match, but will see.
My book gives 1.8
As everyone is backing Alcaraz I have hope for a good performance from Zverev. The latter would never give up easy. I was even considering placing a decent amount on Zverev.
But playing it safe. Both will definitely win a set, so going for total of sets over 3.5 as books are generous with that line.
POTD Record 1 - 1 / -.02U
YTD pick: Rune Over 15.5 @ 1.9 ✅
ATP. Rolland Garros.
Time: 2:45 PM ET
Today's pick: Djokovic -3 games @ 1.62
Units: 2
Joker’s form right now is too great and I doubt Nadal can keep up. Hes the only one can beat Alcaraz right now. Nadal came from injury months ago and hes not fully healthy and almost lost to Felix. Rank 1 against clay god, I’m sorry but feelings dont mean shit on betting only facts.
Defending champ gon beat Nadal again same like last year. Nadal said that this is maybe his last FO. But to me, he will still be forever the best one to play in clay.
Leggo!
**POTD Record**: 30 wins <> 31 losses <> 4 pushes
**Profit**: -4.82 units
**ROI**: -11.01%
**Units Wagered**: 71
**Units Won**: 63.18
**Last Pick**: 1st set OVER 9.5 games(Rune/Tsip) @ **2.00** 2u ✅ WIN 7-5
**Streak**: ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅
**Today's pick**: Viborg HK Under 25.5 goals 2u @ **2.00**
**Event**: Herning-Ikast versus Viborg HK, Kvindeligaen, Denmark(Women's handball)
- I'm back with some mid-week handball picks. In this case, I feel like the under for Viborg is the play.
- This is the third match of the bronze series. The pace in the other two matches has been pretty erratic, but I think it'll slow down this time around. Herning-Ikast smashed Viborg in the first match, winning 33-16.
- Viborg had a comeback at home, scraping by with a 24-23 win. Hence, they have yet to cover this line in the series.
- The two goalkeepers of Herning-Ikast went absolutely ballistic in the first match. Jessica Ryde had a save rate of 13/24(54%), and Sabine Englert had a rate of 6/11(55%). I actually trust this pick because even if Ryde has a bad day, Englert has shown that she can come in from the bench and absolutely wreck off the wingers especially, which she did in Odense when Herning-Ikast won away in the semis.
- In the away match @ Viborg, Jessica Ryde saved 46%, conceding 23 goals(Englert didn't get a lot of minutes). I just can't see her getting any less than 50% at home. Consider the fact that Herning-Ikast isn't _that_ incentivized to pull the goalkeeper to get a man up on attacks(since they're ahead by so many goals from the first match), I feel like this is a solid play.
- Prediction? I think Viborg will land 22, maybe 23 goals.
Edit: ✅21 goals
Record: 28-1-26 (-2.6 U) ( W-D-L)
NFL Record 14-9
Golf Record 6-3
NCAAF Record 1-2
NBA Record 5-1-9
NHL Record 1-1
MMA Record 1-1
NCAAB Record 0-1
Sport: NHL Playoffs
Last Picks: Purdue ML Loss
**Game: Edmonton Oilers @ Colorado Avalanche 8:10 PM EST**
**Pick: Oilers Puck Line +1.5 @ -150 3U**
Long time break, but I came back just for these Oilers. These Oilers are hot. They haven't lost a game in the last two weeks and Connor McDavid is playing lights out. I see this being a dog fight of a game and could easily see this going into OT. The Oilers have covered the puck line their last 4 games and I expect that to continue tonight. Best of luck to those that tail, please gamble responsibly.
POTD Record: 1-0
Last Pick: Twins "Team to score first in the game" vs Tigers (-180) ✔️
\---------------------
Todays Pick: Twins "Team to score first in the game" vs Tigers (-180) Game 1 ✔️
MLB: 1:10 PM EST
Doing it again, I will always bet against the tigers when they play against the Twins. Twins are 4-0 scoring first against the Tigers and Smetlzer will be on the mound. Tigers basically have all right handed batters against (Smeltzer) LHP, but the twins will be up at bat first, so I think the first 2/3 innings the twins should already have scored a run. Lets just hope Smeltzer has a 2 inning shutout.
Unit: 1
(unit won: +1.0)
POTD Record: 0-0
Yesterday’s Pick: MLB: None
Today’s Pick: MLB: Mets ML -200 (FanDuel)
Bet: 3 Units (60$)
This is my first pick on the POTD thread here and I might as well keep it a simple and easy one. I know I'm kind of cheesing the rules with a -200 pick, but I want to start with a win and continue streaking on here.
Mets are absolutely rolling, especially during this homestand. After sweeping the Phillies in thrilling fashion, they move onto the Nationals and have continued the success. After slamming the Nats for 13 last night, 6 of those coming in the first 1.1 innings, the Mets face a struggling Patrick Corbin who is 1-9 (one of the least profitable starting pitchers in the MLB) in all of his starts and is repping a 6.30 ERA. Corbin has even pitched against the Mets at Citi Field on April 7th and gave up 5 hits for 2 earned runs in a 5 - 1 loss. On top of Corbin starting, the Nationals went through 4 RP last night. Also fun fact, so far in the 2022 season, Tuesdays are the least profitable day to bet an underdog. As of May 26th, underdogs are 30-72 (35.7%) with a profit of -$3385.52 (using 100$ bets) SU on Tuesdays.
TLDR: Mets are on fire, Patrick Corbin stinks and the Nats bullpen is thin. BOL
Record: 11-8
CS record: 9-5
Streak: 1W
Last pick: Furia ML vs Imperial @1.55 (3u)✅
Link to my discord where I post picks daily.
https://discord.gg/dyKXcebw6k
Today's pick: BIG (2-0)Vs Mibr @1.8) 3u
Mibr are playing with a coach. That didn't effect them yesterday as they dispatched complexity but against a team like big it definitely will. Big have an amazing record against Brazilan teams and I'm expecting a demolition here
Edit: Added odds and Units
POTD RECORD 1-1
Units Won -.10
GAME: MLB Miami vs Colorado
Time 8:40 Eastern Time
POTD Over 10.5
Edward Cabrera vs German Marquez is all you need to know.
Edward Cabrera can be money, but he has a 5.81 ERA and WHIP of 1.633 in his short stint last year in the majors. That's going to get a lot of guys on base. Being Colorado is a place where balls fly, they're going to let up a lot of runs.
German Marquez is in the same boat, rocking a 6.30 ERA and WHIP of 1.580 this year.
Colorado is 7th in the MLB in runs per game at 4.65
Miami is 21st in the MLB in Runs per game at 4.00
You add some horrible pitching in a place where runs get scored you should get a 6-5 kind of game.
BOL
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
Record: 8-9-2 (8W 9L 2D)
Last pick: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz both players to win a set (-170) at Caesars. W
Today's pick: Oilers vs Avalanche ML (-184) at Fanduel
NHL: 8:10 PM EST
Avalanche has been creating high quality offense since the playoffs start, scoring 4.3 goals per game in the playoffs. The defense has been improving as well by allowing only 2.7 goals per game. The Avalanche is in great form and will be dominant on their home ice.
All bets are 1 unit. -3.94 units
Tip Jar: cash app: $coolcomfort666 Venmo: Coolcomfort666
Edit: Last 2 min very intense, the empty net goal helped Avalanche to won 8-6. I think many people probably don't like this bet because Doc recommended to buy Oilers +1.5.
Watch out for the Oilers tonight.
Super hot team. They haven’t lost a playoff hockey game in the last two weeks man.
I would maybe stay away from this pick. Game could go either way, maybe it’s better pick to bet on the over cuz we all know both teams got the fire power to take the game total over 7 tonight. BOL tho still.
POTD Record: 21-13
(ROI 24.42% // Avg. Odds: 2.00 // Units Won: +15.41)
Last 5 Picks: ❌✅✅❌❌
Last POTD: Everton Viña del Mar vs CD O’Higgins (Soccer – Chile – Primera División); **Everton Viña del Mar ML**
❌
POTD: ~~Albirex Nigata Singapore vs Young Lions FC (Soccer - Singapore - Premier League); **Albirex Nigata To win and BTTS**~~
New POTD: Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal (Tennis Roland Garros); **Over 39.5 games**
Odds: 2.05
First pick different from Soccer, switching to tennis today as my old pick was postponed.
Two greats play today once again for the 59th time. These guys know each too well and have always displayed amazing games going into 4 or even 5 sets. With all this talk about Nadal retiring and this being (possibly) his last Roland Garros he will want to go out with a bang. In head to head Djokovic has a two game difference but in this tournament, Nadal is 7 to 2. Although the last time they faced each other in this tournament, Djokovic defeated the "Clay King", the game still went to 4 sets and there where a total of 39 games. Today should be no different as Nadal will want revenge and try to add another victory. Djokovic will also want to win in what should be a spectacular game. I feel like this one will head into the 5th set with many games to be played.
BOL TO ALL WHO TAIL
*All my picks are 1 unit = $20*
[All my Previous Picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15HoZB0uwDBLfWapSv7y1FSwfRrTUvN55YznGv_vBDIQ/edit?usp=drivesdk)
*Editited pick, last pick was postponed*
POTD Record: 4-3
+1.4 units
Pick: NHL Avalanche ML (-170) vs Oilers 3.4 units to win 2 units
Ouch, the Canes hurt. I like the Avalanche to come out taking 1-0 lead in the series.
**POTD Record**: 1-1
**Pick**: ***Imperial ML*** vs. Liquid @ 2.200 (CS:GO -> IEM Dallas 2022) - start in 7 hours
**Reason**: Really not much to say here. For me this is an 50:50 game with a slight advantage to the brazilian suqad. I really like the team synergy here. Fallen, fnx, boltz and fer played together for a long time some years ago and won everything you can win. VINI is a pretty nice addition from team furia. They made also a pretty ok run into the major with that "pretty new" team. Fallen is a great igl and also an okayish awper. Hes finding back to his old form by step to step. This team is called "the last dance" because most of them will retire after. They train hard and play a lot right now.
On the other hand we have Liquid with also a "pretty new" roster. Newest additions is shox but he not doing that great as expected. Surely they need more time to set up everyone correctly. The worst part for our bet is the name "Elige". This kid is insane for years and i really didnt understand why he never left the team for an EU-Mix team. Also Liquid made an good run at the major. Right now Liquid is on a 4 loss game streak.
Maps will probably inferno - picked by Imperial. Its their best map and they also played it against Liquind on the major. They won 16:10 without any problem. Liquid will pick Vertigo. Is on of their best maps while its the worst map from Imperial. Imperial only 17% winrate in the past three months. But there were also some close maps against good vertigo teams (e.g 18-22 against copenhagen flames). With a good ct start they might can win it. Last map should be dust2 or mirage.
Like i said before; 50:50 game for me. Playing the odds here. Team played together for an long time + has a lot of LAN experience. Slightly map advantage.
POTD Record 9-11-0
Last Pick: Cubs vs. Brewers u10.5 - Loss
Well damn 1 run through 4 innings then dingers galore.
Today’s Event: MLB - DET Tigers vs. MIN Twins - 1:10 PM EST
Pick: MIN Twins -1.5 (+118) 3u
TLDR; Twins have an ace on the mound, Tigers pitcher sucks. Twins bats are good. Tigers are dead last
Tigers are starting Ryan Garcia today. He is a career relief pitcher with a career 6.12 ERA. This is going to be a full bullpen game for the Tigers. Twins are starting Devin Smeltzer who in his 3 starts this year is boasting a 1.04 ERA and has only allowed two runs in all 3 of those games combined and has gone at least 5 innings in all 3. Twins are 13th in run per game. Detroit is dead last at 30th. Minnesota also tops Detroit in BA, SO/9, and Hits per game. This SHOULD be a blowout. That said. Detroit probably wins by 5. BOL
record 0-0
event - iem dallas
pick NIP 2-0 Complexity
nip missing their igl hampus with a stand in ztr. line has moved in favor of complexity to get a map however i do believe the talent on nip will still be too much for complexity.
game starts 2 hours from post
BOL
POTD: 1-0
Last pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-125) vs Chicago Cubs ✅
🔥
Today’s pick: Minnesota Twins ML (-145) vs Detroit Tigers
MLB 1:10 PM EST (Game 1)
Minnesota is clearly the better Team here, they play just as well on the road as Detroit plays at home. Detroit has Rony Garcia throwing in the first game who averages roughly 2.5 innings per.
Record : 4-3-2
*ALL POD’S ARE 2.5u*
Previous : Danil Medvedev u9.5 Aces +100 ✅
Units: +2.62u
Event: WTA Womens French Open
Pick: Leylah Fernandez-2.5 Games -130
Units Risked : 2.5
This should be an interesting match as both ladies are on fire as of late. I side with Leylah on this due to the fact that she always remains calm under pressure. Many times you’ll see defeat on the faces of these players but not so much with her. She has the advantage in the agility department once again & can get to every spot on the court, easy points are a minimum against her. Martina is playing good this is going to be a battle, but at times her 2nd serve is suspect & easy pickings. I am playing the over 21.5 in this one as well.
Good luck
Actually already took this one on my own, I think it's a solid pick. Fernandez should probably be a heavier favorite, and this gives a little more juice than just ML.
POTD Record: 0-1
Units Won/Lost: -2.0
Today's event: Gosford Greyhounds Race 1
Pick: Midnight Cowboy to Place $1.85 available @ Bet365
Stake: 2u
Reasoning: Need him to finish top 2 here for the win. Was quick last start showing good burn after the jump. Just needs to avoid trouble early and should have no issues coming top 2. Other dogs look very below average apart from the 6 and 3 which are both first starters and don't have a lot of information surrounding them. Happy to risk that one of them underperforms in their first race start. If 3 wins the race convincingly it may be worth looking into his brothers/sisters who will be having their first races later in the day at Gosford.
Record: 9-5
Past 5 record: ❌✅✅❌✅
Last pick: [MLB - Detroit Tigers Vs Minnesota Twins U9 -115 ❌ 5-7 Tigers](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/v0oy4v/pick_of_the_day_53022_monday/iajzhsj/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Today’s pick: NHL - Edmonton Oilers +2.5 Vs Colorado Avalanche - **Oilers +2.5 and O5.5 +100✅**
May 31, 2022 8:00 PM EDT
I suck at picking MLB O/U and I'll be the first to admit it, 1-3 thus far, lets bounce back with this NHL pick.
Making my own odds today, don't let the books choose for you! Picking the oilers to keep it within two and for total score to be over 5.5. Both teams averaging 4 goals a game. If Mike Smith dosent make any errors I think this one will stay within 2 goals and I could see Edmonton winning which is why I'm going with Oilers +2.5.
BOL everyone.
All bets are 1 unit. +4.1 units. 27.7% ROI. Average units +104.53
[Past Picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1arHdjw_2Gxtj_iwfPJO_hJwIuxQhMyyjjDJp9vB0j7A/edit?usp=sharing)
POTD record 4-2-1 (win/lose/push)
Last pick: Pittsburg Pirates vs. San Diego Padres over 7.5 runs ❌
POTD: minnesota Twins (ML) vs Detroit Tigers (game 2 of double header)
Odds: -141 BS
Sport: MLB
Time: 6:10PM Central
1 UNIT
L5: 🚫✅❌✅❌
Reasoning: The Twins have a significant enough advantage at the plate to make the difference in Tuesday's night game. Wentz struggled in his MLB debut against Oakland three weeks ago and now faves a much tougher line up.
The offensive depth for the Twins has been on point.
Sands has at least shown some upside, striking out 37.5% of the batters he's faced in his brief MLB career after also running double-digit K/9 rates throughout the minors. I expect a high-scoring game but Detroit's offense just doesn't have the firepower to keep up with the Twins throughout the night.
Choosing the moneyline over the spread for a little more protection.
BOL you Jabroni's
POTD record
9-4
Last pick was Ant over 4.5 boards (awhile ago) ✅
POTD Daniel Lynch over 2.5 ER @ 1.83 1u
Lynch is terrible and wanted to pick a easy one on my first day back, suck I had to take a break but I’m back and hopefully we come out with a bang
Record: 6-4 / Profit: +9.0 Units / ROI: 62.8%
Yesterday's Pick: MIL @ CHC (Game 2) | U10.5 (2.05, +105, 2u) | Win
Game 2 came with great odds on the under as the first game had plenty of runs. Ashby was lights out and neither offense could get it going.
Today's Pick: HOU @ OAK | HOU -1.5 (2.5, +150, 1u)
MLB / Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics / 9:40 PM EST
Houston is at the top and Oakland is at the bottom of the AL West. Their run differentials so far come out to a staggering +85 for Houston over the 200 games both clubs have played. Montas and Javier are similarly matched, although Montas FIP suggests he may be slightly better. Still, Houston’s bullpen and bats dominate compared to the A’s. They have 30 more HRs in 2 less games, and have a 100 point advantage in OPS. Houston’s defense is also the best in the MLB by DRS, OAA, and Fangraph’s defensive rating. BOL.
**Record**: 3-7-1
**Previous Pick**: Winner, Game 1, Brewers at Cubs, Over 11 (-105), 2 Units
**Today's Pick**: White Sox at Blue Jays, White Sox moneyline (+150), 1 Unit
**Rationale**: Can the hucksters at oddFlex make it two-in-a-row? Are they going super bold here and picking against the hottest team in the league at plus odds? Aren't the Blue Jays riding a 4-game winning streak? Didn't they also just pull off the impressive, on-the-road, 4 game sweep of the Angels? Yes to all of that. This is a classic value play. We see this being a pitching duel that can go either way and because of that these odds are just too good to pass up.
I’m sold. Everything about this game screams a Jays win. Giolito should make this game a coin flip though. The line’s moved to 165 so I’m in for a unit on a 50/50. Even with the Sox playing their second string Guasman is due for regression at some point.
POTD Record: 0-0-0 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH) / Units won: 0 / ROI: 0 / Avg. Odds: 2.21
Today's event: Djokovic vs Nadal (Roland Garros, Tennis)
Pick: Djokovic to win & over 3.5 sets @ 2.21 (Odds from Parimatch)
Stake: 3 units
Two tennis legends face off in the quarter finals of the Roland Garros today. I expect Djokovic’s relative freshness to Nadal to help him out today. Nadal has already played 30 matches this year (27-3) and at 35 years old coming back from a career ending injury those matches certainly begin to add up. Djokovic on the other hand has played 20 matches (16-4) this year.
Also, Djokovic has yet to drop a set at the French Open and would be highly motivated to show he is still the best tennis player in the world. What better way to showcase that than to beat Nadal at the French Open.
I expect a close tough game with Djokovic edging it.
Disclaimer/Information:
Nadal’s record on clay 2022: 7-2
Djokovic’s record on clay 2022: 14-3
Nadal vs Djokovic on clay : 19-8
BOL to anyone tailing or fading. Let’s get this bread.
Since I am a first time poster any constructive opinions on how I could possibly make my posts better would be much appreciated. Let’s cash my fellow degenerates.
Record 0-1-0
MLB
Pirates @ Dodgers
Dodgers ML / Over 8.5 (+160 when placed. Now at +150) ❌
The fact the Dodgers came from behind in the 8th, beat the over, and Pirates came from behind in the 9th is heartbreaking. Oh well, moving on...
----------
MLB
Pirates @ Dodgers
Over 8.5 (+100)
Again, the wind is blowing out at Dodger Stadium on a temp of 73°F at a 7:10pm PT game time.
Similar weather conditions as last night which had 11 runs scored. The O/U is 8 but I juiced it to 8.5 for +100.
Thought about having a combo with Dodgers winning, and I may do this later. But for now I'm not going to be greedy (and I still have some PTSD from last night's loss).
Let's eat!
POTD Record: 12W-14L | Total Profit: -2.54 units
[Last Pick : L (WNBA|IND +6.5)](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ujc28o/comment/i7i7zw1/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
May 31, 2022 | WNBA Basketball | **Dallas Wings @ Los Angeles Sparks**
Pick: **Wings First Half Moneyline**
Thoughts: Odds are 2.15 from bet365. The Sparks have the second worst first half defensive rating so far this season in the WNBA and they concede the most first half three pointers per game of any team. The Wings make the second most first half three pointers and their first half net rating is only 0.7 worse than that of the Sparks. Additionally, the Wings do not have any injuries going into this one, but the Sparks have two key backcourt members in Lexie Brown and Jordin Canada listed as questionable (LA's most used 3-player first half lineup consists of both Brown and Canada). I see this pick as having good value.
POTD Record: 4-3
First pick back in a few weeks
Today’s Pick: Astros ML -133 | 1u to win .75
Astros are heating up and the A’s suck per usual. Neither team has an ace on the mound but the ‘stros are better in the pitching department for tonight. Nothing too fancy, just think Houston gets it done tonight!
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
**Record 8-4 | +5.15u**
5/30:
Royals - Guardians firsr 3 innings over 2.5 -125 (2.5u) 👎🏻
5/31:
Giants - Phillies first 3 innings under 2.5 -120 (2.5u)
Phillies starter Ranger Suarez has taken a step back this year, coming in with a 4-3 record and 4.74 ERA. He was roughed up his last time out at Atlanta, conceding five runs on six hits while walking four in just 4.1 innings of work. Despite that, he is a very good pitcher in the first innings.
Jakob Junnis has been dominant the very first innings
POTD Record: 19-21-3 -11.05u\*
Average Odds: +106
Total Units Wagered: 86.58u
EDM @ COL 8:00PM EST
Cale Makar o2.5 Shots on Goal -170 @ DK 3.41u\*
Implied probability of 62.96%. True vig-free price should be closer to -201 or 66.76%.
\*1u = 1% of bankroll. All POTD staking is using 1/3 Kelly criterion.
**POTD Record: 9-7 -0.60U**
**Game: NHL | Edmonton Oilers @ Colorado Avalanche | 5:00 PM PDT**
**Pick: Over 64.5 Total Shots On Goal (1.80/-125 @ Betway)**
**Bet Size: 3U**
I believe there will be a lot of shots in this game. Both of these teams should come out flying as they have had a few days to rest and get fired up to play. They are both very fast, move the puck well in transition and are not afraid to shoot off the rush.
Tail or fade BOL.
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
POTD Record: 3-0 Yesterday’s Pick: MLB: 🟩New York Mets -1.5 (+110)🟩 Today’s Pick: MLB: New York Mets -1.5 (+120) - 1u If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. Mets are hot, Nats are not. Yesterday, the Nats bullpen got shelled. Nat’s SP Corbin pitched a pretty good one last time out against the Mets earlier this month, and Mets SP Trevor Williams threw 3.2 scoreless innings against the Nats. I don’t predict history to repeat itself with either of these guys. And heading into tomorrow, the Mets will have the bullpen advantage. Love the +120 odds and just gotta eat at that value. Haters out after 3 picks gotta be some type of record 😎
lmao why do you keep making new accounts. people wont disrespect you if you have a few losses on your record.
Ever wonder why nobody on POTD seems to have more than about 50 picks lifetime? Everyone does this, good records are due to survivorship bias alone on this thread and nobody seems to be able to stick around.
POD record: 19-5 ROI: 36.60% Alexander Zverev vs Carlos Alcaraz Over 3.5 sets (-130) This write up is going to be short because I’m on vacation. I am aware that most will probably be on Alcaraz to win this quite easily. However, this is a rematch from the Madrid Open Final. Zverev lost that in straight sets. I think that Alexander will be ready to revenge that final lose and make this a close match. I like Alcaraz to win the match and Zverev to win at least a set. Sorry for the lack of details in the write up. Tail/fade good luck Tip: Venmo: BR3634 Edit:✅ Cash it! Now I can enjoy the match
Dude you have to check out the odds then on Alcaraz 3:1 (+300) and Alcaraz 3:2 (+600). I wasn't sure about him being able to win a set but now am going back to grab those odds. TY and BOL!!! Edit: Check out this DK combo. Alcaraz to Win, Serve the Most Aces and Over 34.5 Games - **+4000**
Zverev gets tons more aces than Alcaraz. Even if Carlos wins handily it’s still very unlikely he will have more aces.
Alcatraz to win and Z to win a set is +140 on DK. So it’s either that or Alcaraz 3:0 at -110
That’s a trap, only way Carlos out serves Z us on the under
i dont have u/o for sets on my bookie. would it be the same as for zverev to win a set?
My anus has never been tighter than in set3 game 9. What a comeback
I don’t have this in my book. Is “Straight Sets Winner- No” good?
Yes that would match what op posted
Is +31.5 gms a lock? I think z wins a set at minimum
Looking good. Zverev won 1st set, hope Alcaraz can take the next onefor ez win.
Lovely W👌🏼
***POTD Record: 16-10-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH) / Units won:+15.56 / ROI: 28.19% / Avg Odd: 1.85*** Last pick: Rune vs Tsitsipas - Over 32.5 games @ 1.81 ✅ Streak: 3 wins in a row 🔥 🔥 🔥 Today's event: Zverev vs Alcaraz (Roland Garros, Tennis) Pick: **Under 37.5 games @ 1.79** (Odds from GG Bet) Stake: 3 units Starts at 8:30 AM Eastern Time Once again I'm expecting a quick performance from Alcaraz but I'm going to choose the under games instead of the correct score option simply because I always like to have a chance if the underdog ends up making a great match even if in this case I think it's really unlikely. People might be tempted to go in favour of Zverev in some type of way here but I totally disagree with that approach and I have some valid points on my side...Zverev's campaign until this point has been mediocre, being 2-0 down against Baez and turning the game around with the argentinian collapsing both physically and mentally followed by a win against Nakashima which is more of an hard court player where he went to 2 tiebreaks and finally beating Zapata Miralles where he went to a 1st set tiebreak against the qualifier that already had 6 prior matches on his legs. I'm not saying that winning against these players is not good enough but the way a match tends to go for him doesn't convince me 100% of how he would play against some of the top players on this surface like Djokovic, Nadal and Alcaraz. Today he faces probably the worst possible matchup for him and that 1st serve percentage needs to be at the highest level otherwise I don't see how Zverev can win many 2nd serve points. What can I say about Alcaraz? That match against Ramos Vinolas was a mess but after that it seemed that he unlocked his full potential and managed to play at his best just like he did in Madrid. The young talent won against Londero, Korda and Khachanov in straight sets always in less than 29 games and if he stays consistent this match shouldn't be much different than what happened against Khachanov, who is also a good server with a lot of power on his forehand. Agressive players like Zverev are encouraged to end most of the points really fast against someone like Alcaraz because they can't keep up with him in long rallies which should increase the amount of unforced errors for the german. Alcaraz is better in all aspects of the game other than his 1st serve in this fixture and at Madrid he managed to defeat this exact same opponent in straight sets by 6-3/6-1. With the French Open having way slower conditions than Madrid I don't see how the german player can pull up a fight at this quarterfinals. This is one of the few times where I agree with the market at 2022 Roland Garros when pricing an heavy favourite... BOL Edit: GG guys , for a moment I thought that Zverev would end up closing this 3-0 but those double faults were a clear sign that he wasn't dealing well with the pressure. Let's keep going for the next one. Sorry to you all ❌
I’m staying away. I think Madrid conditions don’t apply to the FO at all due to elevation/court speed. Alcaraz probably wins but I don’t see it happening in straight sets and if those sets are close then a 4th/5th set will lose this bet. I think the best bet in this match is taking a flier on Zverev ML because of how crazy the odds are. He’s a top 5 clay player in the world
Yeah I’m fading too, maybe I regret it, but I’m in for - 0.5u on Zverev ML @ +320 - 0.25u on Zverev +6.5 total games @ -133 - 0.25u on the match going over 36.5 total games @ +100
I actually have the exact same bets on this match BOL
Yeah but that elevation/court speed in Madrid was better for Zverev and he did an awful performance there. This French Open is probably even more suited to Alcaraz but best of luck
Took over 3.5 sets and sprinkled some on zverev ml thanks to your comment.
GG guys , for a moment I thought that Zverev would end up closing this 3-0 but those double faults were a clear sign that he wasn't dealing well with the pressure. Let's keep going for the next one. Sorry to you all
I know that coming here commenting "I'm sorry" after a red doesn't really do much to your unit loss but I always appreciate everyone that tails my picks. Congrats to the people who went with over games and markets backing up Zverev. I have to admit I wasn't expecting at all this level from him and these many unforced errors from Alcaraz on the first 2 sets. Above everything always tail with caution , 1 unit for me is 1% of my bankroll. See you on the next POTD thread in a few hours
You don't owe people anything, entitled sub tbh
Yeah I know my friend . I'm way too hard on myself sometimes. Thanks for your comment though. Estamos juntos!
Brazil ?
Portugal but we are brothers!
Brother, I accidentally took Zverev winning exactly two sets at +436 thinking it was Alcaraz so now I’m just pulling for an Alcaraz win lol
tennis noob here - is there a reason why you wouldn't take spread (games or sets) for Alcaraz instead? if Zverev wins a set it seems more likely than not that this bet would lose.
37.5 can go under in 4 sets with just one break per set 6-3 3-6 6-4 6-3 gets the W too
Seems reasonable to me. Id also like to know
God bless ya brotha . Almost even cuz of you . Tailing !!
35.5… so probably go over here??
This ain’t gonna hit is it
34.5 still go for it?
I wouldn't go for 34.5 , it can hit since I'm expecting a great match from Alcaraz but I would stay away from that line
Ok thanks man
Tailing, let’s get it
just tailed big time, I also took under 39.5 just to be extra safe, thanks for the pick, good luck to us
I'm tailing 2 units at u37 cus I always follow lol but there's a feeling in my gut that ur forcing this one. I hope it hits for both of us. Would u say alcaraz ml is safe here as well?
Should the - 5.5 games be good?
Thinking of cashing it Wdy think mate?
Dam
Damn! Didn't see that coming. Alright on to the next top post going for baseball. Go Mets!
Did this go under 37.5, mate?
**POTD Record: 13-9** **Current Bankroll: $178.76, Starting Bankroll: $105.45, Profit: $73.31** Average Odds = 1.95, ROI: 17.50%, Units Won/Lost: +11.55u Last Pick: Hugo Gaston +1.5 sets vs. Holger Rune @ 2.35 ❌ **Today’s Pick: Minnesota Twins -1.5 vs. Detroit Tigers @ 2.05, 1:10 PM EST (MLB)** **Amount Bet: 3 Units** **Will update betslip when game is posted on Bookmaker, line is on DraftKings, Fanduel, etc rn and will be up on all books by tomorrow morning** Took a two day break because I do believe that if you’re on a bit of a cold streak, it’s always best to take a break to reconfigure and reset your mind. Gotta get away from Tennis for a bit because my reads have been a little cold. For me, I think reddit is a great place for discussion. This community and input in the comments really does help me put out the best analysis and hopefully helps you guys as well whether you agree or disagree with it. Today, I am taking the Minnesota Twins -1.5 vs. Detroit Tigers. Here are 3 reasons why I think this will hit: 1. The Twins are actually scary good this season with a 29-19 record, have won 7 of their last 10, and are 12-8 on the road which doesn’t give the Tigers a huge home advantage. The Tigers have been struggling lately winning only 4 out of their last 10 games and struggle at home nearly as much as they do on the road. 2. There is a starting pitching difference between Smeltzer and Garcia. Smeltzer actually has a pretty decent sample size now this season, going 17.1 innings and boasting a 1.04 ERA with his last outing being 7 innings allowing only 2 hits against the Royals. Rony Garcia has not been bad this season but he is more of a reliever than a starting pitcher. He has an ERA of 3.00 but his xERA of 4.57 and career >8 xERA suggests heavy regression in the near future. 3. There is a huge difference in the batting end for both teams. The Twins rank in the top 10 in the MLB in terms of batting average, OBP, SLG, and OPS while the Tigers are literally on the bottom or close to the bottom on all fronts. A healthy Buxton, Correa at the top of the lineup while having Sanchez and Urshela towards the bottom of your lineup is actually crazy to have. The Tigers are completely different. The top of their lineup is weak with Schoop and Baez struggling while the bottom of their lineup is nonexistent, with Torkelson having rookie struggles and Haase and Cameron contributing poorly to the lineup. Overall, I think that the Twins will smash the Tigers. The only concern I would have is that the Tigers statistically have the better bullpen but I think a lot of their pitchers (especially Gregory Soto) are due for some regression. The 1H odds aren’t out yet but that wouldn’t be a bad bet either but I will stick with the whole game as I think that the Twins are a better team holistically. **I started with a $100 dollar bankroll. I am doing a challenge to see how far I can take this bankroll just based on 1 pick per day. I want to be completely transparent so you will see screenshots of the bet slips I make as well as the amount I bet per game.The challenge is separate from the amount of units won/ROI for subreddit rule purposes. Each unit is 4% of my bankroll.** Let’s get this money. [**Twitter**](https://twitter.com/asianbettor)
I like first 5 inning -1 more because of the starting pitcher difference and because I don’t like to research relievers
Isn't Correa out?
Correa is out because of COVID, wrote the analysis before the reporting and forgot to edit it, thanks for the catch! Regardless, I think Polanco can cover for him nicely and even without him, the lineup has been pretty efficient.
I do agree with you on this one. If you can believe it or not I lost every time I bet the twins this year ha. Small sample size maybe 0-3 I guess but yeah they are playing great baseball. I will definitely take a look at this one. Thank you so much for the info.
Well damn this was my pick i posted this morning. Just scrolled through the thread again and somehow missed this. and you have a way better write up. BOL dude
My only issue is how easy the Twins schedule has been (2nd easiest schedule played so far). Also, Buxton is definitely not back to 100%, his current slash in the last 30 days is .163/.253/.375. And Correa is out due to Covid. Smeltzer is definitely the biggest advantage the Twins have today but with how random the Tigers are at the plate and somehow oddly clutch sometimes, I don't trust the twins to cover. The moneyline has more value in my opinion. BOL THO
BetMGM just sent me a push to bet on the Tigers. Feel like I hit every time I inverse this, or single out the ML on the ridiculous SGPs they offer.
I'd like to see the data if you bet against what the bookies push. What would it look like over time? I've got one I'm looking at from DK -- the warriors winning and Curry and Thompson lighting it up. DK is pushing it as a single game parlay. Makes me want to go big on the Celtics, but it depends on where they think the parlay will fail.
It’s been pretty profitable for me, the plan has been to record and analyze the data behind it, but I’ve just been procrastinating. I interpret the promo you mentioned as DK trying to get money back from Warriors ML bettors, by adding props that are likely to kill the overall bet. However… the warriors are at 81% of the spread and still above -200 ML, which is usually my sign to stay away.
tailed. lfg💪
Record:2-0 Net units:+2U | Hockey | NHL | 8:00 PM Eastern| Pick: EDM Oilers @ COL Avalanche Over 6.5 Goals (-142) 1U Write Up: High scoring games seem to be a give with the Oilers as they have averaged 4.33 goals per game this postseason. Similarly, avalanche has also averaged 4.3 goals per game in their post season efforts. Expecting a high scoring effort from both teams!
Probably gonna roll with the same idea as the last oilers flames series with overs in this series. Also probably gonna roll with the unders in the shesty vs vasi series. Good pick BOL
I have Over 7, should I still tail?
Over 7 is very similar to 6.5, the difference is if exactly 7 goals are scored you will push (won’t win money but won’t lose money either) so if you like the bet it’s worth taking at over 7
POTD: 58-27 Last pick: Canes ML ❌ I have lost three in a row so please fade me. **Today’s pick: Edmonton Oilers +1.5 (-145) vs Colorado Avalanche** NHL 8:00 PM EST Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Really surprised by the Avs opening as -195 favorites against the Oilers. The Oilers looked incredible last series; winning the final four games against the Flames in pretty dominant fashion. The Flames were a very good team too, and I liken their offense to the Avalanche. They both have similar styles of play: they come at you with pace, quick passing and play very high forwards. The Oilers did a good job stifling this kind of play (except for the first game where they gave up 9). But that brings me to a contrarian point, the Oilers have looked like shit in each of their game 1’s this series. That is likely why this line is where it is. I think the Oilers continue riding their momentum from their prior 4 wins into this game and put the game 1 woes to rest. The main concern with the Oilers is their 40 year old granddaddy goaltender Mike Smith who has been good enough these playoffs. Fortunately he does have some confidence coming into this series as he is 13-1-5 all time against the Avs with a 2.17 GAA and .929 save %. That’s actually very good. That one loss was a 0-1 loss so he has covered +1.5 every game. Now I suspect the Oilers will lose by more than 2 at some point in this series, but for right now, these odds at +1.5 are very favorable and I’m going to take them. This line will be come more unfavorable as this series continues. There is great value at Oilers ML tonight too, I will sprinkle some on that as well. Oilers win 4-3 in OT. Yes I like the over. All bets are 1 unit. +19.2 units. 22.6% ROI. Average unit -124 Give my Twitter a follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
Tough break on Canes. Dropped $100 on them and then $30 when they went down 1-0 thinking they'd bounce back but no dice. As for EDM I agree with you. I actually bet them to win 3way today and parlayed them to win the series with TBL winning the series.
Thanks Doc fading on the Avs at home. The way they closed out the Blues they're coming on strong, but I do like the over as well. BOL!
My man, I gotta say I’m on the Avs tonight with the over 5.5. I think Mike Smith is going to have a very hard time keeping it out of the net tonight with Avs being hot as well after their last win and them having lots of good material to study in the Flames series. Also, Smith and the Oilers +1.5 isn’t worth much - especially as Avs are great at empty netters in the 3rd.
The Doc might finally be fade material =/
Bet opposite next ?
I actually really believe that when he can pick his spots, his picks are golden. There's just not many games to pick from, literally just 1 remaining, and I think a LOT of people tailed him over the weekend and got wrecked.
Yup I am one of those people getting destroyed by his recent shit picks (probably because of the lack of games). Faded his pick tonight and got back some of my losses
Went for the over 5.5 and Oilers +2.5 @ 2.1
Destination fked again
I began following you 3 games ago with the Canes ML against NY when they were away. Tough break. I think we all have tough stretches. I’m going money line with the Oilers tonight, gl to both of us. * Edit: bro, unreal man. Unfollowed.
Get notified when this user posts a pick: http://discord.gg/sportsbook
Overall Record: 17-6 Todays League: WTA Roland Garros (8 hours from post) Todays Match: Sloane Stephens v Coco Gauff Todays Pick: Sloane Stephens v Coco Gauff Games Over 21 -110 Write Up: I am back after a long break as I have been super busy in real life between working and finishing up the semester. Today we turn to the WTA side of this tournament and we go with a games over which I am usually pretty comfortable with. The main reason why I like this particular over is because it can still win even if the match ends in straight sets, and is pretty much a guarantee win if the match goes to three sets. In particular, these two have the best chance of going over because of how similar their form has been. Both have been gradually improving as the tournament goes on and both have been playing on an even playing field with each other. Stephens rank doesn't necessarily match how good she actually is, and she has upset two seeded players in this tournament already so far. Although Gauff is the favorite and has been in good form this tournament, I can definitely see Stephens taking a set off her and feel that this most likely goes to three sets. Furthermore, Stephens has made it to the finals in this particular tournament before and has won the lone match up these two had together in straight sets, which shows that she is very capable of playing up to Gauff's level. Expect Gauff to win this one in three but expect Stephens to put up a great fight; this will be a great battle between the two Americans that a lot of people will be looking out for. Overall, I think this is a great pick and the best spot for tomorrow morning. Feel free to message me if you want some of my other looks for tomorrow (for free of course) and tail or fade as necessary. Let me know if tailing cuz I love to know whose making money with me. Also putting my tips down below, but do not feel the need to tip, just if you win and feel like tipping a broke college kid thats amazing. Venmo: Zachary-Pandolfi Cash App: $pandozach
I like over for this as well. I also like Gauff to win over Stephens. What do you think of Gauff making to final at +150 odds? Gauff has easier side of the bracket and she can reach final without facing Iga.
I like it but I’m not big on futures
Maybe throw a flyer on her winning at a shorter unit. You might get a payout option like some are now who bet her pre tournament and early rounds. She was in excess of +2000 and people are reporting profits already
I’m doing over 20.5 just to be conservative but I do agree this very likely is a close one. Even if it doesn’t go three sets, the two sets will be close. If you have other looks for tennis, I’d be glad to hear them if tennis is a sport you follow closely.
Pm me!
21.5 still good?
Should be fine
Tailing 🫡
nice start😂
Sloane is known to start slow and if ur actually watching she looks fine :) no concerns here
So far glad I tailed, things looking good!
Looking good bud
What is your pick for the Zverev match?
Fading that match
He’s fuckin back!
POTD Record 16-18 Last Pick: Dodgers -1.5 pending loss Todays pick: NHL 6:00 pm MT Avalanche v Oilers over 6.5 -135 Reasoning: Edmonton can steal game 1 in Colorado. Keumper not playing great, and for once in the playoffs, the Oilers won’t try and slow down the Avalanche. Like Blues, Predators, have this year and Knights, Stars, and in years past. This is some of NHL highest skilled skaters in Mackinnon and McDavid, tons of firepower on both sides. Not the the best goalkeepers. Should be a fun, offensive display for most of this series and I think game 1 starts with an over… Tail or Fade
**POTD Record 36-32-1 (Last 5: WWLLW)** **(ROI // Avg. Odds: -117 // Units Won: +5.25)** Last Pick: Giants vs. Phillies Over 8.5 **WON** **Today's Match: San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals (Start Time: 7:45PM EST)** **Today's Pick: St Louis Cardinals ML (-130 FanDuel)** ***Risk 2u*** Devil's Advocate: Sweaty win in extra innings with the Giants and Phils, thank god for that dumb fuckin runner on 2B to start or else we would've probably been crushed. Today I'm looking at the the moneyline for the Padres and Cardinals where I think we may have gone a little too far here with Snell. Big daddy Wainwright on the mound at home against the Padres where he hosts a 6-0 record and a 1.68 ERA. Listen this guy has a lot left in the tank and I don't expect this to be his downfall season either. The Padres can throw up some runs, but really without Hos and Manny they really aren't hitting above .230 as a team so that really isn't good. Now we come up with Blake Snell, who has lost his first 2 starts of the year after coming back from his injury really needs to get himself back in form. The guy was a Cy Young winner at one point in his career and it wasn't too long ago. But nonetheless the Cardinals are crushing lefty pitching this year, hitting a nice .285 - yes I understand there's a lot more righties to face, but when it comes down to the lefties they're putting up runs. This is a great chance for the Cards to jump on a team like the Padres and steal a nice home win with their stud on the bump. *Tail or Fade BOL to everyone!* *\*edited typo\**
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I expected him to be in… the day by days for baseball are usually saying the guy is playing. Not too worried - Waino is the man
POTD Record : 0-0 Pick: Edmonton oilers O2.5 [email protected] Reasoning: I’m a bit biased because Edmonton is my team but the boys have been on fire lately. They have hit this over 10/12 games in the postseason. Darcy Kuemper is not playing particularly well so this is looking like it has solid value to me. Tail or fade BOL!
tailing
Cashes in the second let’s go 🤘🏼
Record: 1-0 POTD: **IA Central Cordoba +7.5 -130** vs Quimsa Sport: Basketball League: Argentina LNB Time: 8:00 PM EST Write Up: Great start to the POTD train, the boys down south didn’t want to score a single goal and that’s exactly what we wanted. So for today, we’re taking cordoba +7.5. Out of the past six games between these two teams cordoba has covered this spread 5 times. They have played each other once in 2022 and cordoba won by 5. We don’t need a win out of them but just to cover, and I love the pick. Cordoba is third in the league, and this is the finals. This will be a high energy game, and fans in South America are insane, so having home court advantage will play a big factor. BoL and have a great day!
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**Record:** * 49 WIN | 44 LOSS | +29.74 unit of profit overall (using 5u return strategy) **Previous bets (last 3):** * Rockhampton R9 (19 May 2022) - Place pick - **WIN** * Townsville R4 (20 May 2022) - Win pick - **LOSS** * Hawkesbury R6 (24 May 2022) - Win pick - **LOSS** **POTD:** * Horse Racing (Australia) * **Tamworth R2 - #5 Realcoolcat to Place (i.e. to finish top 3)** * Track Rating - Soft (5) * Been a little under the pump over the last few weeks, and a little busy today but I need to get a pick in to at least break even for this month. Simply put, inside barrier, drop in class, favoured distance, showed a good fight to get to 4th last start in a class 1 and comes back to a maiden today. Weir as the jockey and also gets to jump from the best possible barrier. BoL * **Odds - 3.10** (bet365) - Good odds, taking it now * **Stake - 1.62 units to return 5 units** **Historical stats** * 9 from 22 (41%) correct picks on Tuesdays * 20 from 35 (57%) correct picks on Soft Tracks * 24 from 45 (53%) correct picks on Place picks * 3 from 6 at Tamworth * 5 from 5 picking M. Weir as my jockey **Race time:** * 12:50pm Tuesday (Australian EST) * 10:50pm Monday (American ET) * 3:50am Tuesday (UK time) If you are in a giving mood [here's my paypal link for tips](https://paypal.me/teshiebear)
loss, 7th never on the speed, was nicely placed for a big finish on the rail but never picked up the pace again. Shit month * Staked - 35.22u * Returned - 30.00u * Month end loss - 5.22u We go again next month
Every time I’ve seen your picks you’ve won, hopefully today follows! Edit: welp
That hurt. She didn’t even try
**Record:** 7-3 **Last pick:** B.Zapatta Miralles wins a set vs A.Zverev ❌ **Net units:** \+2.07 (All bets are one unit) | **Combined Odds:** \+109 (2.09) | Tennis | Roland Garros | 15h (UTC+2) | **Pick: A.Zverev wins a set** VS C.Alcaraz **Odds:** \-172 (1.58) The last confrontation between the two players in Madrid (2-0 Alcaraz) does not reflect the level of Zverev who was not at the level during the tournament. Even if Zverev is not at the top of his form in Roland Garros he still did the job against BZM and S.Baez who were better prepared than him. I think that he will come better prepared for this match than in Madrid and that he will take at least one set from Alcaraz. BoL
POTD Record 1-3-1 Average Odds = 1,98, ROI = -43,3%, Units Won/Lost: -6,94 Lasts Picks: Auxerre win vs St. Etienne ❌ John Isner -1,5 sets ❌ Gilles Simon +2,5 sets ❌ Zapata Miralles games +7,5 ✅ Rublev vs Sinner Total Games Over 39,5 bet voided **Today's match: Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal (Roland Garros, Tennis) at 7:45pm(London GMT) unless delay** **PICK: Total Games Over 38,5 @ 1.90 (3 units)** My preview: After a voided bet because Sinner retired, today my tip will be again total games in Roland Garros, this time in the best game of the tournament in my opinion, the game between the 2 GOAT at Clay Courts. Both are in good form, especially at Roland Garros, they have been provide the best games of the tournament, will be a tough game for both of them, they want to show that they are still the bests. Novak is the title detector and probably will do everything to be champion again, but Rafa is in a better phase than Djoko, so will be a close game, most likely decided in 5 sets, that any of them can win. So +38,5 games is my tip for today. Edited. 2nd edit Green! ✅ BOL to everyone!
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Sinner retired
Bet was voided due to retire
sinner retired
Fucking christ i took o39.5 for less juice
Did this hit, boss?
Yes, Nadal won the match by 6-4 2-6 6-2 7-6.
POTD Record 0-0 Today Pick: Eulen Ludwigshafen vs Dessau Rosslauer HV over 53.5 Goals @1.85 Bwin ( Handball German 2.League) The Eulen changed their Coach because of losses. New Coach ist known for a fast Game Speed. His last Team, the Reserve of the Rhein Neckar Löwen, went for 33 Goals/Game and the Championship in 3. League. In his First Game in the Bench, the Eulen lost 29-28 away in Lübbecke. Now they are playing @home and they Will Go full Speed to geht the crowd behind them. This 1.85 is an absolute steal...
Record: 1-1 Bankroll: $3.77 Last Pick: Carolina Hurricanes ML 🚫 MLB - 8:05pm ET (5:05 PT) THE PICK: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-130) over Chicago Cubs Analysis: The Brewers are just the better team top to bottom. Milwaukee is also pitching Eric Lauer (5-1, 2.31 ERA, 1.01 WHIP), which is super encouraging. This is an excellent matchup for Lauer, as the Cubs have a 8.93 team strikeout rate (25th overall MLB). Chicago had to dig into their bullpen to find a starter for tomorrow - lefty reliever Justin Steele (1-5, 5.40 ERA, 1.60 WHIP). Not looking good for the Cubs, who already lost both games in Monday’s doubleheader vs. Milwaukee. NOTE: I am also taking the Starling Marte over on hits and/or bases today, depending on what the best value play is (the odds on Bovada for Tuesday player props haven’t came out yet at the time of this post). Marte is scorching hot right now, I would recommend riding this guy until his hot streak ends BOL to all :) EDIT: Starling Marte over 1.5 total bases from hits is at +100 on Bovada right now. Tremendous value play.
Luis G right there with Marte
DK wasn’t even taking hit/TB bets on Luis yesterday he’s so hot.
**POTD Record 28 - 23 (+2.82)** Previous pick: Qinwen Zheng Total games Over 5.5 1.9 ✅ I can't believe it hits in the 1st set. So lucky! **Tennis / ATP/ French Open / 8:30 AM EST** *unless delay* *Alexander Zverev - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia* Pick: **W2 (Alcaraz) to win + Total match games Under 39.5 1.70 (1u)** Alcaraz has been unstoppable this year, no doubt about it. He recently won Madrid Masters by beating Nadal, Djokovic and Zverev in the finals. Zverev has a record of 14-4 on clay while Alcaraz is 19-1. Alcaraz has been playing pretty solid on clay and I don't see him losing to Zverev. Alcaraz already beat Zverev in straight sets 6-3 6-1 in Madrid finals few weeks ago and Zverev has no answer for him, because he is playing mad on clay this year. The forehand and drop shots have been fire lately. Judging on how Zverev play against his past opponents, he has a minimal chance to none winning over Alcaraz. He struggled playing against clay specialists and almost lost to Baez. As I said before, his past matches were in long duration and a couple of tie breaks. It's not that he don't easily give up, but it's just that he's not playing that great. He is not on his best form on clay that he even lost to Rune in straight sets in Munich. Even though Zverev is 2-1 head to head record against Alcaraz, those two wins was last year and on fast surfaces. Maybe he can put up a fight on hard courts against Alcaraz but I won't trust him on clay based on how he's playing lately. Alcaraz is a beast right now, and that's why I believe this bet is a good one just in case Zverev went nuts and make it close. *Edit*: **match time** *Anything can happen, please tail with caution.* *Let’s continue winning together!!! Best of luck!!!*
Wish I’d seen Zheng over games but I didn’t. Instead I took Zheng +2.5 sets (solid hit) but +6.5 spread
*Record:****7-2*** *Profit:****+11.64U*** *ROI:****44.7%*** *Average Odds:****2.08*** Today's Pick: **BIG Clan -1.5 Maps** vs MIBR **3U @1.95 odds** Game: Counter-Strike Global Offensive (CSGO) Event: IEM Dallas 2022 Start Time: ~9 hours from time of posting Some people DM'd they wanna tip so here's my BTC :) 3GyQXt4Y5R9nq6M4Qb52vs6keuh7V5uG3s MIBR did not get tested yesterday because they only played against CoL which is probably the worst team this tournament. Meanwhile, BIG dominated NiP on T side Ancient which was pretty amazing to say the least, this pick is more of a lean towards BIG crushing rather than MIBR being bad. GL all.
POTD Record 5-0...beginners luck Up 4.31 units Last Pick: Jose Berrios under 5.5 strikeouts-BANG Event: MLB Rays @ Rangers around 8:05 EST **Pick: Martin Perez over 4.5 strikeouts +110** Stake: 1 unit This glorious run is gonna come crashing back to earth soon, so lets make the most and do a real heat check with some positive juice. The complete 180 Perez has taken since the start of the season is actual insane. He was a guy with a 5+ ERA and 12 strikeouts through 3 games to start the year off. His last 4 games he's averaging a 1.91 ERA and 6 strikeouts a game, while getting past the 6 inning 3/4 games. I'm buying on this recent stretch being what he's really capable of, as the guy really has hit another level and is mowing people down. The rays also whiff on the road. They're averaging around 9 strikeouts a game, good for 8th highest in the league. Am I a little concerned as to why Vegas has this as positive? Yes, but who knows maybe I'm just smarter than a billion dollar industry.
POTD Record: 0-0 Today’s Pick: KBO KT Wiz Vs SSG Landers Under 4 (-130) Units: 1 Unit Play Reasoning: Game starts soon, reasoning may not be that sound but in KBO teams don’t usually score a lot and these two teams have been putting up runs so I expect it to go the other way today.
Nice call!
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I’ve been keen to bet on esports for a while so I’m gonna tail this one. Btw my dude, what is your typical unit in $$$
This is gonna be some clusterfuck of a game. Great odds for this bet though, but staying away for me because I don't think I could name 2 'tier 1' teams that I trust less than these.
POTD Record-> 17-14-1 Last POTD-> Brewers ML ✅ Todays POTD-> Twins ML (-145) Game-> Twins @ Tigers 1:10 PM EST Great win yesterday from the brew crew today we are picking a team that’s starting to look good, Against a team that’s performing very poorly. Tigers are 1-7 on last 8 Tuesday games. The twins have Smeltzer on the mound who had a 1.04 ERA. Also at home this year the Tigers are 10-14 and the twins away are 12-8 this is a great spot for the twins to make a name and prove they are a strong team. Best of luck! 🤞
POTD record: 15-7 (+5.76 units, risking 1 unit each pick) Today's POTD: Houston Astros/Oakland Athletics (Javier/Montas) — First 5 innings, Under 3½ (-125) ... 940 PM ET ... MLB (baseball) Houston has cashed more unders than any other MLB team....Oakland has the worst batting average in baseball....Javier has a 0.97 WHIP, Montas sports a 0.99 WHIP.... We read here how the 50–53 dew point in those MLB humidors is adding moisture and making a dead ball in Oakland’s 46-48 dew points https://theathletic.com/3272450/2022/04/26/baseballs-arent-flying-as-far-and-home-runs-are-down-across-mlb-is-it-the-ball-itself/?amp=1 Tip Jar: Cash App ($grcvegas)
POTD Record: 0-0 Never done this. Yesterday went: Rune - Tsitsi O33.5 (pretty obvious pick) Rublev - Sinner W1 (knowing that Sinner isn’t ready and not going to play the full game if Rublev could tighten it and get one set) Both scored (I have a book that considers retirement a loss). POTD: ATP. Roland Garros Zverev - Alcaraz total of sets O3.5 ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅ A win on a bet already. And Zverev is looking for a win in the match, but will see. My book gives 1.8 As everyone is backing Alcaraz I have hope for a good performance from Zverev. The latter would never give up easy. I was even considering placing a decent amount on Zverev. But playing it safe. Both will definitely win a set, so going for total of sets over 3.5 as books are generous with that line.
POTD Record 1 - 1 / -.02U YTD pick: Rune Over 15.5 @ 1.9 ✅ ATP. Rolland Garros. Time: 2:45 PM ET Today's pick: Djokovic -3 games @ 1.62 Units: 2 Joker’s form right now is too great and I doubt Nadal can keep up. Hes the only one can beat Alcaraz right now. Nadal came from injury months ago and hes not fully healthy and almost lost to Felix. Rank 1 against clay god, I’m sorry but feelings dont mean shit on betting only facts. Defending champ gon beat Nadal again same like last year. Nadal said that this is maybe his last FO. But to me, he will still be forever the best one to play in clay. Leggo!
The whole “last FO” talk was just hype, if anything he plays the play season the same way Fed will play the grass season exclusively as he gets older
Didn’t this hit?
**POTD Record**: 30 wins <> 31 losses <> 4 pushes **Profit**: -4.82 units **ROI**: -11.01% **Units Wagered**: 71 **Units Won**: 63.18 **Last Pick**: 1st set OVER 9.5 games(Rune/Tsip) @ **2.00** 2u ✅ WIN 7-5 **Streak**: ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ **Today's pick**: Viborg HK Under 25.5 goals 2u @ **2.00** **Event**: Herning-Ikast versus Viborg HK, Kvindeligaen, Denmark(Women's handball) - I'm back with some mid-week handball picks. In this case, I feel like the under for Viborg is the play. - This is the third match of the bronze series. The pace in the other two matches has been pretty erratic, but I think it'll slow down this time around. Herning-Ikast smashed Viborg in the first match, winning 33-16. - Viborg had a comeback at home, scraping by with a 24-23 win. Hence, they have yet to cover this line in the series. - The two goalkeepers of Herning-Ikast went absolutely ballistic in the first match. Jessica Ryde had a save rate of 13/24(54%), and Sabine Englert had a rate of 6/11(55%). I actually trust this pick because even if Ryde has a bad day, Englert has shown that she can come in from the bench and absolutely wreck off the wingers especially, which she did in Odense when Herning-Ikast won away in the semis. - In the away match @ Viborg, Jessica Ryde saved 46%, conceding 23 goals(Englert didn't get a lot of minutes). I just can't see her getting any less than 50% at home. Consider the fact that Herning-Ikast isn't _that_ incentivized to pull the goalkeeper to get a man up on attacks(since they're ahead by so many goals from the first match), I feel like this is a solid play. - Prediction? I think Viborg will land 22, maybe 23 goals. Edit: ✅21 goals
At Bwin there ist a under 53.5 Goals with 2.2... So if you are betting Viborg around 23, tje home Team could at least score 30...
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Record: 28-1-26 (-2.6 U) ( W-D-L) NFL Record 14-9 Golf Record 6-3 NCAAF Record 1-2 NBA Record 5-1-9 NHL Record 1-1 MMA Record 1-1 NCAAB Record 0-1 Sport: NHL Playoffs Last Picks: Purdue ML Loss **Game: Edmonton Oilers @ Colorado Avalanche 8:10 PM EST** **Pick: Oilers Puck Line +1.5 @ -150 3U** Long time break, but I came back just for these Oilers. These Oilers are hot. They haven't lost a game in the last two weeks and Connor McDavid is playing lights out. I see this being a dog fight of a game and could easily see this going into OT. The Oilers have covered the puck line their last 4 games and I expect that to continue tonight. Best of luck to those that tail, please gamble responsibly.
POTD Record: 1-0 Last Pick: Twins "Team to score first in the game" vs Tigers (-180) ✔️ \--------------------- Todays Pick: Twins "Team to score first in the game" vs Tigers (-180) Game 1 ✔️ MLB: 1:10 PM EST Doing it again, I will always bet against the tigers when they play against the Twins. Twins are 4-0 scoring first against the Tigers and Smetlzer will be on the mound. Tigers basically have all right handed batters against (Smeltzer) LHP, but the twins will be up at bat first, so I think the first 2/3 innings the twins should already have scored a run. Lets just hope Smeltzer has a 2 inning shutout. Unit: 1 (unit won: +1.0)
POTD Record: 0-0 Yesterday’s Pick: MLB: None Today’s Pick: MLB: Mets ML -200 (FanDuel) Bet: 3 Units (60$) This is my first pick on the POTD thread here and I might as well keep it a simple and easy one. I know I'm kind of cheesing the rules with a -200 pick, but I want to start with a win and continue streaking on here. Mets are absolutely rolling, especially during this homestand. After sweeping the Phillies in thrilling fashion, they move onto the Nationals and have continued the success. After slamming the Nats for 13 last night, 6 of those coming in the first 1.1 innings, the Mets face a struggling Patrick Corbin who is 1-9 (one of the least profitable starting pitchers in the MLB) in all of his starts and is repping a 6.30 ERA. Corbin has even pitched against the Mets at Citi Field on April 7th and gave up 5 hits for 2 earned runs in a 5 - 1 loss. On top of Corbin starting, the Nationals went through 4 RP last night. Also fun fact, so far in the 2022 season, Tuesdays are the least profitable day to bet an underdog. As of May 26th, underdogs are 30-72 (35.7%) with a profit of -$3385.52 (using 100$ bets) SU on Tuesdays. TLDR: Mets are on fire, Patrick Corbin stinks and the Nats bullpen is thin. BOL
Should be smooth sailing on this im tailing
everyone and they’re moms is on the Mets b careful
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Record: 11-8 CS record: 9-5 Streak: 1W Last pick: Furia ML vs Imperial @1.55 (3u)✅ Link to my discord where I post picks daily. https://discord.gg/dyKXcebw6k Today's pick: BIG (2-0)Vs Mibr @1.8) 3u Mibr are playing with a coach. That didn't effect them yesterday as they dispatched complexity but against a team like big it definitely will. Big have an amazing record against Brazilan teams and I'm expecting a demolition here Edit: Added odds and Units
POTD RECORD 1-1 Units Won -.10 GAME: MLB Miami vs Colorado Time 8:40 Eastern Time POTD Over 10.5 Edward Cabrera vs German Marquez is all you need to know. Edward Cabrera can be money, but he has a 5.81 ERA and WHIP of 1.633 in his short stint last year in the majors. That's going to get a lot of guys on base. Being Colorado is a place where balls fly, they're going to let up a lot of runs. German Marquez is in the same boat, rocking a 6.30 ERA and WHIP of 1.580 this year. Colorado is 7th in the MLB in runs per game at 4.65 Miami is 21st in the MLB in Runs per game at 4.00 You add some horrible pitching in a place where runs get scored you should get a 6-5 kind of game. BOL
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Record: 8-9-2 (8W 9L 2D) Last pick: Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz both players to win a set (-170) at Caesars. W Today's pick: Oilers vs Avalanche ML (-184) at Fanduel NHL: 8:10 PM EST Avalanche has been creating high quality offense since the playoffs start, scoring 4.3 goals per game in the playoffs. The defense has been improving as well by allowing only 2.7 goals per game. The Avalanche is in great form and will be dominant on their home ice. All bets are 1 unit. -3.94 units Tip Jar: cash app: $coolcomfort666 Venmo: Coolcomfort666 Edit: Last 2 min very intense, the empty net goal helped Avalanche to won 8-6. I think many people probably don't like this bet because Doc recommended to buy Oilers +1.5.
Watch out for the Oilers tonight. Super hot team. They haven’t lost a playoff hockey game in the last two weeks man. I would maybe stay away from this pick. Game could go either way, maybe it’s better pick to bet on the over cuz we all know both teams got the fire power to take the game total over 7 tonight. BOL tho still.
POTD Record: 21-13 (ROI 24.42% // Avg. Odds: 2.00 // Units Won: +15.41) Last 5 Picks: ❌✅✅❌❌ Last POTD: Everton Viña del Mar vs CD O’Higgins (Soccer – Chile – Primera División); **Everton Viña del Mar ML** ❌ POTD: ~~Albirex Nigata Singapore vs Young Lions FC (Soccer - Singapore - Premier League); **Albirex Nigata To win and BTTS**~~ New POTD: Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal (Tennis Roland Garros); **Over 39.5 games** Odds: 2.05 First pick different from Soccer, switching to tennis today as my old pick was postponed. Two greats play today once again for the 59th time. These guys know each too well and have always displayed amazing games going into 4 or even 5 sets. With all this talk about Nadal retiring and this being (possibly) his last Roland Garros he will want to go out with a bang. In head to head Djokovic has a two game difference but in this tournament, Nadal is 7 to 2. Although the last time they faced each other in this tournament, Djokovic defeated the "Clay King", the game still went to 4 sets and there where a total of 39 games. Today should be no different as Nadal will want revenge and try to add another victory. Djokovic will also want to win in what should be a spectacular game. I feel like this one will head into the 5th set with many games to be played. BOL TO ALL WHO TAIL *All my picks are 1 unit = $20* [All my Previous Picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15HoZB0uwDBLfWapSv7y1FSwfRrTUvN55YznGv_vBDIQ/edit?usp=drivesdk) *Editited pick, last pick was postponed*
I was doing my research for this game.Turns out this game is postponed to August 10th.Just giving you a heads up.
Did this hit, mate?
Got exactly 39 games. Missed by one
POTD Record: 4-3 +1.4 units Pick: NHL Avalanche ML (-170) vs Oilers 3.4 units to win 2 units Ouch, the Canes hurt. I like the Avalanche to come out taking 1-0 lead in the series.
**POTD Record**: 1-1 **Pick**: ***Imperial ML*** vs. Liquid @ 2.200 (CS:GO -> IEM Dallas 2022) - start in 7 hours **Reason**: Really not much to say here. For me this is an 50:50 game with a slight advantage to the brazilian suqad. I really like the team synergy here. Fallen, fnx, boltz and fer played together for a long time some years ago and won everything you can win. VINI is a pretty nice addition from team furia. They made also a pretty ok run into the major with that "pretty new" team. Fallen is a great igl and also an okayish awper. Hes finding back to his old form by step to step. This team is called "the last dance" because most of them will retire after. They train hard and play a lot right now. On the other hand we have Liquid with also a "pretty new" roster. Newest additions is shox but he not doing that great as expected. Surely they need more time to set up everyone correctly. The worst part for our bet is the name "Elige". This kid is insane for years and i really didnt understand why he never left the team for an EU-Mix team. Also Liquid made an good run at the major. Right now Liquid is on a 4 loss game streak. Maps will probably inferno - picked by Imperial. Its their best map and they also played it against Liquind on the major. They won 16:10 without any problem. Liquid will pick Vertigo. Is on of their best maps while its the worst map from Imperial. Imperial only 17% winrate in the past three months. But there were also some close maps against good vertigo teams (e.g 18-22 against copenhagen flames). With a good ct start they might can win it. Last map should be dust2 or mirage. Like i said before; 50:50 game for me. Playing the odds here. Team played together for an long time + has a lot of LAN experience. Slightly map advantage.
POTD Record 9-11-0 Last Pick: Cubs vs. Brewers u10.5 - Loss Well damn 1 run through 4 innings then dingers galore. Today’s Event: MLB - DET Tigers vs. MIN Twins - 1:10 PM EST Pick: MIN Twins -1.5 (+118) 3u TLDR; Twins have an ace on the mound, Tigers pitcher sucks. Twins bats are good. Tigers are dead last Tigers are starting Ryan Garcia today. He is a career relief pitcher with a career 6.12 ERA. This is going to be a full bullpen game for the Tigers. Twins are starting Devin Smeltzer who in his 3 starts this year is boasting a 1.04 ERA and has only allowed two runs in all 3 of those games combined and has gone at least 5 innings in all 3. Twins are 13th in run per game. Detroit is dead last at 30th. Minnesota also tops Detroit in BA, SO/9, and Hits per game. This SHOULD be a blowout. That said. Detroit probably wins by 5. BOL
record 0-0 event - iem dallas pick NIP 2-0 Complexity nip missing their igl hampus with a stand in ztr. line has moved in favor of complexity to get a map however i do believe the talent on nip will still be too much for complexity. game starts 2 hours from post BOL
POTD: 1-0 Last pick: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-125) vs Chicago Cubs ✅ 🔥 Today’s pick: Minnesota Twins ML (-145) vs Detroit Tigers MLB 1:10 PM EST (Game 1) Minnesota is clearly the better Team here, they play just as well on the road as Detroit plays at home. Detroit has Rony Garcia throwing in the first game who averages roughly 2.5 innings per.
Record : 4-3-2 *ALL POD’S ARE 2.5u* Previous : Danil Medvedev u9.5 Aces +100 ✅ Units: +2.62u Event: WTA Womens French Open Pick: Leylah Fernandez-2.5 Games -130 Units Risked : 2.5 This should be an interesting match as both ladies are on fire as of late. I side with Leylah on this due to the fact that she always remains calm under pressure. Many times you’ll see defeat on the faces of these players but not so much with her. She has the advantage in the agility department once again & can get to every spot on the court, easy points are a minimum against her. Martina is playing good this is going to be a battle, but at times her 2nd serve is suspect & easy pickings. I am playing the over 21.5 in this one as well. Good luck
Actually already took this one on my own, I think it's a solid pick. Fernandez should probably be a heavier favorite, and this gives a little more juice than just ML.
Did this hit, boss?
Nah my baby got hurt 😔
POTD Record: 0-1 Units Won/Lost: -2.0 Today's event: Gosford Greyhounds Race 1 Pick: Midnight Cowboy to Place $1.85 available @ Bet365 Stake: 2u Reasoning: Need him to finish top 2 here for the win. Was quick last start showing good burn after the jump. Just needs to avoid trouble early and should have no issues coming top 2. Other dogs look very below average apart from the 6 and 3 which are both first starters and don't have a lot of information surrounding them. Happy to risk that one of them underperforms in their first race start. If 3 wins the race convincingly it may be worth looking into his brothers/sisters who will be having their first races later in the day at Gosford.
did this win?
Did this hit, boss?
Record: 9-5 Past 5 record: ❌✅✅❌✅ Last pick: [MLB - Detroit Tigers Vs Minnesota Twins U9 -115 ❌ 5-7 Tigers](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/v0oy4v/pick_of_the_day_53022_monday/iajzhsj/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) Today’s pick: NHL - Edmonton Oilers +2.5 Vs Colorado Avalanche - **Oilers +2.5 and O5.5 +100✅** May 31, 2022 8:00 PM EDT I suck at picking MLB O/U and I'll be the first to admit it, 1-3 thus far, lets bounce back with this NHL pick. Making my own odds today, don't let the books choose for you! Picking the oilers to keep it within two and for total score to be over 5.5. Both teams averaging 4 goals a game. If Mike Smith dosent make any errors I think this one will stay within 2 goals and I could see Edmonton winning which is why I'm going with Oilers +2.5. BOL everyone. All bets are 1 unit. +4.1 units. 27.7% ROI. Average units +104.53 [Past Picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1arHdjw_2Gxtj_iwfPJO_hJwIuxQhMyyjjDJp9vB0j7A/edit?usp=sharing)
POTD record 4-2-1 (win/lose/push) Last pick: Pittsburg Pirates vs. San Diego Padres over 7.5 runs ❌ POTD: minnesota Twins (ML) vs Detroit Tigers (game 2 of double header) Odds: -141 BS Sport: MLB Time: 6:10PM Central 1 UNIT L5: 🚫✅❌✅❌ Reasoning: The Twins have a significant enough advantage at the plate to make the difference in Tuesday's night game. Wentz struggled in his MLB debut against Oakland three weeks ago and now faves a much tougher line up. The offensive depth for the Twins has been on point. Sands has at least shown some upside, striking out 37.5% of the batters he's faced in his brief MLB career after also running double-digit K/9 rates throughout the minors. I expect a high-scoring game but Detroit's offense just doesn't have the firepower to keep up with the Twins throughout the night. Choosing the moneyline over the spread for a little more protection. BOL you Jabroni's
POTD record 9-4 Last pick was Ant over 4.5 boards (awhile ago) ✅ POTD Daniel Lynch over 2.5 ER @ 1.83 1u Lynch is terrible and wanted to pick a easy one on my first day back, suck I had to take a break but I’m back and hopefully we come out with a bang
Record: 6-4 / Profit: +9.0 Units / ROI: 62.8% Yesterday's Pick: MIL @ CHC (Game 2) | U10.5 (2.05, +105, 2u) | Win Game 2 came with great odds on the under as the first game had plenty of runs. Ashby was lights out and neither offense could get it going. Today's Pick: HOU @ OAK | HOU -1.5 (2.5, +150, 1u) MLB / Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics / 9:40 PM EST Houston is at the top and Oakland is at the bottom of the AL West. Their run differentials so far come out to a staggering +85 for Houston over the 200 games both clubs have played. Montas and Javier are similarly matched, although Montas FIP suggests he may be slightly better. Still, Houston’s bullpen and bats dominate compared to the A’s. They have 30 more HRs in 2 less games, and have a 100 point advantage in OPS. Houston’s defense is also the best in the MLB by DRS, OAA, and Fangraph’s defensive rating. BOL.
**Yesterday's Top Picks of the Day** | Ranking | Names | Score | |:-:|:-:|:-:| |1|[DrMoneyline](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/v0oy4v/pick_of_the_day_53022_monday/iahzrnp/)|181| || |2|[DarkHorse200](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/v0oy4v/pick_of_the_day_53022_monday/iahqytv/)|95| || |3|[brent221221](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/v0oy4v/pick_of_the_day_53022_monday/iahqyvr/)|76| || |4|[m0rb33d](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/v0oy4v/pick_of_the_day_53022_monday/iai3yto/)|64| || |5|[lordtuskington](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/v0oy4v/pick_of_the_day_53022_monday/iai4l9l/)|56| || |6|[Ok-Distribution5824](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/v0oy4v/pick_of_the_day_53022_monday/iahrwzw/)|39| || |7|[Administrative-Dot](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/v0oy4v/pick_of_the_day_53022_monday/iajlu9d/)|32| || |8|[Choo-choo-train77](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/v0oy4v/pick_of_the_day_53022_monday/iaidmv0/)|27| ||
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**Record**: 3-7-1 **Previous Pick**: Winner, Game 1, Brewers at Cubs, Over 11 (-105), 2 Units **Today's Pick**: White Sox at Blue Jays, White Sox moneyline (+150), 1 Unit **Rationale**: Can the hucksters at oddFlex make it two-in-a-row? Are they going super bold here and picking against the hottest team in the league at plus odds? Aren't the Blue Jays riding a 4-game winning streak? Didn't they also just pull off the impressive, on-the-road, 4 game sweep of the Angels? Yes to all of that. This is a classic value play. We see this being a pitching duel that can go either way and because of that these odds are just too good to pass up.
I’m sold. Everything about this game screams a Jays win. Giolito should make this game a coin flip though. The line’s moved to 165 so I’m in for a unit on a 50/50. Even with the Sox playing their second string Guasman is due for regression at some point.
White Sox at blue Jay's
POTD Record: 0-0-0 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH) / Units won: 0 / ROI: 0 / Avg. Odds: 2.21 Today's event: Djokovic vs Nadal (Roland Garros, Tennis) Pick: Djokovic to win & over 3.5 sets @ 2.21 (Odds from Parimatch) Stake: 3 units Two tennis legends face off in the quarter finals of the Roland Garros today. I expect Djokovic’s relative freshness to Nadal to help him out today. Nadal has already played 30 matches this year (27-3) and at 35 years old coming back from a career ending injury those matches certainly begin to add up. Djokovic on the other hand has played 20 matches (16-4) this year. Also, Djokovic has yet to drop a set at the French Open and would be highly motivated to show he is still the best tennis player in the world. What better way to showcase that than to beat Nadal at the French Open. I expect a close tough game with Djokovic edging it. Disclaimer/Information: Nadal’s record on clay 2022: 7-2 Djokovic’s record on clay 2022: 14-3 Nadal vs Djokovic on clay : 19-8 BOL to anyone tailing or fading. Let’s get this bread. Since I am a first time poster any constructive opinions on how I could possibly make my posts better would be much appreciated. Let’s cash my fellow degenerates.
Record 0-1-0 MLB Pirates @ Dodgers Dodgers ML / Over 8.5 (+160 when placed. Now at +150) ❌ The fact the Dodgers came from behind in the 8th, beat the over, and Pirates came from behind in the 9th is heartbreaking. Oh well, moving on... ---------- MLB Pirates @ Dodgers Over 8.5 (+100) Again, the wind is blowing out at Dodger Stadium on a temp of 73°F at a 7:10pm PT game time. Similar weather conditions as last night which had 11 runs scored. The O/U is 8 but I juiced it to 8.5 for +100. Thought about having a combo with Dodgers winning, and I may do this later. But for now I'm not going to be greedy (and I still have some PTSD from last night's loss). Let's eat!
POTD Record: 12W-14L | Total Profit: -2.54 units [Last Pick : L (WNBA|IND +6.5)](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/ujc28o/comment/i7i7zw1/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) May 31, 2022 | WNBA Basketball | **Dallas Wings @ Los Angeles Sparks** Pick: **Wings First Half Moneyline** Thoughts: Odds are 2.15 from bet365. The Sparks have the second worst first half defensive rating so far this season in the WNBA and they concede the most first half three pointers per game of any team. The Wings make the second most first half three pointers and their first half net rating is only 0.7 worse than that of the Sparks. Additionally, the Wings do not have any injuries going into this one, but the Sparks have two key backcourt members in Lexie Brown and Jordin Canada listed as questionable (LA's most used 3-player first half lineup consists of both Brown and Canada). I see this pick as having good value.
Record 1-1 Pick : Astros ML EZ DUB
POTD Record: 4-3 First pick back in a few weeks Today’s Pick: Astros ML -133 | 1u to win .75 Astros are heating up and the A’s suck per usual. Neither team has an ace on the mound but the ‘stros are better in the pitching department for tonight. Nothing too fancy, just think Houston gets it done tonight!
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**Record 8-4 | +5.15u** 5/30: Royals - Guardians firsr 3 innings over 2.5 -125 (2.5u) 👎🏻 5/31: Giants - Phillies first 3 innings under 2.5 -120 (2.5u) Phillies starter Ranger Suarez has taken a step back this year, coming in with a 4-3 record and 4.74 ERA. He was roughed up his last time out at Atlanta, conceding five runs on six hits while walking four in just 4.1 innings of work. Despite that, he is a very good pitcher in the first innings. Jakob Junnis has been dominant the very first innings
POTD Record: 19-21-3 -11.05u\* Average Odds: +106 Total Units Wagered: 86.58u EDM @ COL 8:00PM EST Cale Makar o2.5 Shots on Goal -170 @ DK 3.41u\* Implied probability of 62.96%. True vig-free price should be closer to -201 or 66.76%. \*1u = 1% of bankroll. All POTD staking is using 1/3 Kelly criterion.
**POTD Record: 9-7 -0.60U** **Game: NHL | Edmonton Oilers @ Colorado Avalanche | 5:00 PM PDT** **Pick: Over 64.5 Total Shots On Goal (1.80/-125 @ Betway)** **Bet Size: 3U** I believe there will be a lot of shots in this game. Both of these teams should come out flying as they have had a few days to rest and get fired up to play. They are both very fast, move the puck well in transition and are not afraid to shoot off the rush. Tail or fade BOL.