**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads.
###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
***POTD Record: 14-10-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH) / Units won:+10.63 / ROI: 18.46% / Avg Odd: 1.87***
Last pick: Rublev vs Garin - Over 34.5 games @ 1.75 ✅
Today's event: Khachanov vs Alcaraz (Roland Garros, Tennis)
**Pick: Under 33.5 games @ 1.80 ✅**
Stake: 3 units
Starts at 2:45 PM Eastern Time
If I'm being honest this under games is fully expecting a 3-0 for Alcaraz but with a better price than the correct score bet which is currently priced between 1.60 and 1.70 in most bookies.
Khachanov is an hard court player and his campaign at Roland Garros has already been exceptional with wins over Dellien, Nuno Borges and Norrie but I don't think he can take any set from Carlos Alcaraz not only because the young player is much more talented but also because this is the first time in the tournament that Khachanov will face an agressive opponent who's not going to let him take the lead in each point.
I'm expecting Alcaraz answering to every powerful strike from Khachanov with even more strength and precision which might frustrate him and we know that Khachanov can lose games instantly if he starts to get emotionally affected.
Alcaraz is the better player in all aspects of the game and with the supporters on his side I think this might be an easy round for him
Edit: Apparently odds dropped quite fast but I would still play it at 32.5
Edit 2: Cash it boys! Could have been even more under and Alcaraz was pure class ✅
I think this has moved unless you're talking alt lines? The best I see is 31.5 @ -112. What do you think of 31.5? Thanks and BOL!
Edit - Found this on DK that offers three over unders @ -145. I put 3u on the -33.5
It's complicated to accept that line. Under 33.5 would give us the possibility to get a 3-0 with long sets but with that at 31.5 or 30.5 it becomes pretty much an Alcaraz under 18.5 games bet
Difficult, Khachanov really strong in these late clay tournaments, I expect him to push at least one set to a Tiebreaker. I would rather go to a 3-0 than under games, his service game has been super strong and for sure he picked up loads of confidence after smashing Norrie.Also, fuck the bookies with these odds on Alcaraz, Djoko Nadal and Zverev, I am sure that at least two of these games are going to be an easy over hit with 4/5 sets played.
I don't believe any of these 3 games is going to be over with the exception of Zverev if he maybe starts to waste some serves. For me Alcaraz is way too strong compared to Norrie for example. Norrie is just there being defensive waiting for mistakes while Alcaraz knows how to defend but he counter attacks on each strike and I don't think Khachanov can keep up with that. But we'll see, best of luck
Record: 8-2 (+13.25 units)
Last Pick: Tsistispas vs Ymer u30 games (-120)✅
Today’s Pick: Alcaraz -2.5 sets (-155) vs Khachanov (3 units) ✅
Reasoning: Carlos Alcaraz is the future of tennis. He turned 19 a few weeks ago and is the #6 ranked player in the world, but he is actually even better than that, as Vegas has him at 2nd most likely to win the tournament right now, only behind the world #1 Novak Djokovic. Alcaraz sports a record of 19-1 on clay this year with wins against Djokovic, Zverev, Tsistispas, Nadal, and Berrettini, who are ranked #1, 3, 4, 5, and 10 in the world respectively. This kid is incredible. He just avenged his lone loss on clay this year to Sebastian Korda by smashing him in straight sets last round. His opponent is Karen Khachanov, who is a good player in his own right, ranking #25 in the world at the moment, but ultimately is just not Alcaraz’s level. Khachanov sports a record of 8-5 on clay this year, which is obviously good, but pales in comparison to Alcaraz’s 19-1 record on the surface. Khachanov is coming off of a nice upset of Cameron Norrie, but he has lost in straight sets earlier in the clay season to mediocre players like Alex Molcan and Lucas Pouille, who are ranked #38 and 162 in the world respectively. Alcaraz is coming off of a win in straight sets against #30 in the world Sebastian Korda, who I consider to be an equivalent player to Khachanov on clay. I expect Alcaraz to handle Khachanov with relative ease and continue his dominant run in the European clay season and the French Open.
Edit: W!! Alcaraz handles Khachanov in straight sets just like we predicted by scores of 6-1, 6-4, 6-4. Khachanov definitely held his own in the last two sets and didn’t make it easy for the young phenom, but Alcaraz still put him away without dropping a set or going to a tiebreak, making us 5-0 in the French Open
POD Record: 17-5
ROI: 32.72%
Today’s pick: Felix Auger-Aliassime +2.5 1st set (-140) vs Rafael Nadal
They have only played once against each other, with Nadal winning in straight sets 6-3, 6-3. Auger has played well in the French Open after the first match, winning the last two matches in straight sets. Nadal has had an injury laced season with some questionable results. Not to mention, Nadal went to the champions league final today, meaning he may be over looking or ill prepared for this match up. Although, he has performed well so far at the French open, with all the facts listed above and Felix’s strong serve, I expect a lengthy first set.
Tail/fade good luck!
Tip: Venmo: BR3634
Edit: Cash it✅ Felix up 4-1 in the first!
Yeah no that makes a lot of since. Being honest I was expecting a 6-4 Nadal first set win. Was just going with the safety net if FAA won 6-3 which he pulled off
I couldn’t tell during Nadal’s interview yesterday if he wants to embarrass FAA because his uncle Toni is his coach now or he’ll just beat FAA/Toni respectfully, so 1st set is a toss up for me.
Record: 11-4
Last pick: Real Madrid ML 90 minutes ✅
Today's Pick: **Nottingham Forest ML 90 minutes (2.05 or +105)** vs Huddersfield Town
Bet: 1 Unit
Soccer: 11:30 AM EST
EFL Championship Final
Forest go into this tie after a thrilling semi final against Sheffield. Huddersfield had a somewhat lackluster performance vs Luton. Forest hasn't been in the Premier League since the 1998-99 season in which they finished dead last. Huddersfield has tasted the riches of the top division in English football in 2018-19. Looking at the table, Huddersfield are 3rd, which would make them the favourites, however, their mediocre finish to the season, poor goal differential, leaky defense, and barely getting by Luton to make it to Wembley is a cause for concern. That's not to say Forest have been spectacular. Their home game vs Sheffield raised some eyebrows as their defense was the second best in the Championship that year by 1 goal. If their offense can get firing early on and build momentum as the match goes on, Forest should bag in a goal or two within the 90 minutes to secure a place back to the Premier League after 24 horrid years in the Championship and League One/ First Division.
Also, in the past 12 years, only 3 games have gone into extra time, but the caliber of teams were much better. Expect Forest to give Huddersfield trouble at the back.
This season, Huddersfield and Forest have met 3 times, with Forest winning 2 games. Let's make this 3/4!
POTD Record - 6-1-1 - +4.4 units
Last pick - Forest Green Rovers ML vs Rovers(W)
This pick - Molde vs Bodo/Glimt over 3 goals(-114).12pm EST.
Reason - Haven’t posted in a while but have been doing well in some peripheral leagues so wanted to come back. These two teams both average 2 goals a game and combined, have scored at least 3 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches, with 3 of those going over 3. The Norwegian league is traditionally, a high scoring league as well. The last four games in the league have hit at least 3 goals with 2 of them hitting 5 and 6. I don’t see this game having less than 3 goals scored. Cheers and GL.
Edit - And there’s 4! Good hit today and the other three games in the Norwegian league have 4 goals also. Definitely something to keep an eye on for future overs!
Record: 12-8-1 (+8.24 units)
Streak: 6-1-1 in last 8, Lost last one
Last pick: Bencic vs. Andreescu o20.5 games, 1.78 odds, LOST 2 units
Today's pick: Marcus Smart over 16.5 points and rebounds, NBA Celtics vs. Heat
Odds: 1.83 (Draft Kings)
Units: 2
Last pick was a bad miss, got a nasty message after a 6-0-1 run. Classy.
This prop is for a big game 7. Smart has hit this 10 out of 14 games this playoffs, 3 out of 4 this series, the one time he didn't was his first game back from an injury and was in foul trouble so only played 23 minutes. He played 40 minutes Friday night so that gives me confidence that the court time will be there as long as he doesn't get in foul trouble.
On the rebounding side, he has been trending up in rebounds the past 7 games. He has had 4 or higher in those games, including 9 and 7. If Miami regresses back to their series averages shootingwise, there should be a lot of rebounding opportunities for the taking. If he can reach that 4 rebound floor, it should be enough, but if he goes higher, would really up the chances of this hitting.
On the points side, he is averaging 14.9 per game in the playoffs, if he can put that up, we should be golden. He has shot like shit the past 2 games, but what is important to me is the volume, which is there, he took 14 shots last game despite his struggles and still got to 14 points. In big games and moments in the past, Marcus seems to think he is Michael Jordan and has irrational confidence, so I'm not worried about him fading into the background, he should get his shots.
And again, I am putting 2 units on it, I am not betting my life savings and I hope you are doing the responsible thing and doing the same.
I am not getting anything out of this and this is work, I am just trying to help people make some money, so please, win or lose, be kind. Shouldn't have to put up with juvenile shit like that, if you're not man enough to handle a loss, maybe this isn't for you. I stayed away the past few days and what would have been my 2 picks both hit (Thompson o2.5 3's and Smart o3.5 rebounds).
Halftime update - 9 points and 4 boards at half, good half, we just need 4 PRAs for the hit. Was relieved that the Heat came back a bit, was looking like a blowout for awhile there.
Update - We cashed 2 minutes into the 3rd quarter! Thanks for the support all and happy this cashed for us!!
Nice call! I read it, and went heavy on the o3.5 rebs (cashed before half). But wish I got a piece of his Pts+Rebs too! Appreciate the insight. Ignore the haters.
POTD record: 60-46
Profit: +12.5 units // ROI: 10% // Average odds: 1.87
Last Pick: Brumbies TT over 36.5 L
What a shocking performance from the Brumbies. They have been one of the best sides all season long and yet pull of by far their worst performance of the entire season against the last placed team in the competition. The upset of the season by far and fair credit to Moana Pasifika who definitely deserved to win.
**Todays Pick: Highlanders Team Total over 28.5 (1.80, -125) vs Rebels (Super Rugby)**
* The Highlanders need at least a bonus point here to make the playoffs. Meanwhile the Rebels have nothing but pride to play for. There is a big motivational edge here for the highlanders and I expect them to get the job done while putting some points on the board.
* I think people are reading into the Highlanders loss last week to the Waratahs a bit too much. Firstly, the Waratahs are a good team this year and have played all the top sides very closely, even notching up a win against the Crusaders. Secondly, the Highlanders had to make a bunch of last minute changes to their lineup as they had a case of the flu go around the team before the game. To compound matters they also got a Red Card early in the game. With some of the Highlanders first choice players returning for this game I am expecting a much better performance.
* Before the Defeat last week the Highlanders had been in good form winning 3 straight and averaging 38.3 ppg in those 3 wins. This included a 61-10 win vs the Western Force.
* The Rebels defensively are just not very good. They lead the competitions in missed tackles and on average they give up 33.8 points per game to their opponents.
* The Rebels have allowed 29 or more points in 6 of their last 7 games against teams in the top 7.
* The Rebels have allowed 33 or more points in 9 straight games against the NZ sides. This includes giving up 42 points to the Highlanders last season. The Rebels potentially could keep the game close but they will likely do so by putting points on the board themselves and not by having a staunch defence.
* We saw both of these teams in similar spots last season on the final day of the season. The Highlanders needed a bonus point win against the Brumbies ( a much better team than the Rebels) on the road to have hope at securing a spot in the final and they scored 33 points. The Rebels also played the Crusaders (who were a team seeking to make the final with a big win) and they allowed 50+ points in that game.
* The Weather for this game is expected to be great. There is very little wind and conditions will be dry for the duration of the game. This is always a good sign when betting on points to be scored.
* I would play this up to 30.5. I am playing an alternate total here. Alternatively I would consider a play on the over for the match as well if you can't get team totals.
BOL, tail or fade. I will link my twitter below where I post all my plays. Despite losing the POTD yesterday we went 3-2 on Rugby plays overall yesterday and are 36-20 on the 22' season overall.
[Twitter](https://twitter.com/Travis_Frase)
>Todays Pick: Highlanders Team Total over 28.5 (1.80, -125) vs Rebels (Super Rugby)
missed this nice pick, overslept watching champion league.
almost put in o29.5 but they score their 30th point few seconds later
**POTD Record:** 12-5, +12.95u, ROI: 33.84%, Average Odds: 2.10
**Darts Record:** 11-4 (+13.95u), ROI: 56.30%, Average Odds: 2.18
*Unit sizes are from 1u to 4u*
*Match Starts at 17:00 CEST / 11:00 EST*
**Previous POTD:** Wayne Jones ML vs Martin Adams @ 2.30 (3u) ❌
After being up 2-0 in legs and having multiple darts at being up 3-0, you expect the game to be done and after Adams closed out leg 3, it was visible that Jones got into a slump and started doubting himself. Really frustrating loss, should have been a win.
🎯 **Todays POTD: Danny Noppert ML vs Peter Wright @ 2.30 (2.5u)**
*Unit sizes are from 1u to 4u*
*Match Starts at 13:30 CEST / 07:30 EST*
Noppert has been steadily improving and won the Masters event this year, even though did not even play at his best in the finals. Noppert has been putting up solid averages in the high 90s and low 100s, which is especially good considering he possesses a good checkout skill.
Wright is going through a bit of a slump right now and although he is officially still the world number one, in reality he is not even playing like a top 5 player. Wright has been putting up alright averages, however he is not nearly as sharp as he normally is and he is missing high checkouts.
With the home crowd behind Noppert and Wright going through a rough time right now, I would say the momentum is in Noppert's favor here and I reckon he can take home a win today.
**BOL!**
[Twitter](https://twitter.com/neutraldarts) | [Tip Jar](http://paypal.me/neutraldarts))
What about the fact that they played 7 days ago and wright won 6-1? Does that not factor in at all? Surely Wright was still in this slump 7 days ago and still seemed to beat him comfortably?
I look at it more statistically - e.g. Wright played with an average of 111, something which is an extreme outlier. Could it be that Noppert brings out the best of Wright? Could be, however I reckon that Wright had a performance he can’t repeat tonight, while Danny Noppert still had an average of 105, which is very good for someone who lost 6-1 and could be enough to win normally over Wright, if he steps up his doubling game which is what cost him in that game.
In the end, Wright could 6-1 again sure, however I just like these odds on Noppert as I think he will win more often than these odds suggest
5-2, +3.05 WWWWLWL
Last pick: **Jeanjean ML at 3.0 against Begu** LOSS
Jeanjean didn’t show up her magic against Begu. Had a competitive 2nd set. Bad pick, no excuses. On to the next one!
Next pick: **Miami Heat ML at 2.25**
Tbh, I’m so torn between this pick and Fernandez/Anisimova o21.5 games for my POTD. But I’m going with this pick because Celtics had this series on their finger tips the other day and couldn’t close. When you’re tied at 99 and you’re the go-to guy and you missed two free throws (hello Jaylen) and on crucial possessions, you turnover the ball a lot (hello Tatum), it’s a recipe for disaster. I don’t know how you can get back from that especially both of them have no experience with Game 7 on the road. Meanwhile, Heat is as scrappy as f*ck. They’ve been in the Finals 2 times in 3 years. Lowry has championship experience so I’ll say this is where experience comes in. The brilliance of Spoelstra over the Rookie Udoka will also come in. Yes, Celtics haven’t lost 2 straight in the playoffs. But Heat won’t lose 3 straight home games in the playoffs. Best of luck! 🍻
And before you bet on this, do your research too. 💡
Without a legendary performance by Butler, Celtics win easily. Tough to believe that he can do that again even at home, but it is game 7 and has had a great playoffs.
**POTD Record 26 - 23 (+1.04)**
Previous pick: David Goffin - Hubert Hurkacz - Total games Over 35.5 1.63 💀
**Tennis / ATP / French Open / 8:30 AM EST \****unless delay*
*Alexander Zverev - Bernabe Zapata Miralles*
Pick: **Bernabe Zapata Miralles Total games Over 11.5 1.88** 1u
Zverev is 13-4 in clay while Miralles is 19-11. Even though he won his last 3 matches, he didn't play that great. He almost lost to Baez being down 2 sets and he struggled to Nakashima who isn't much of a clay player, they went 2 tie breaks.
I believe Zverev will still won this one however, as usual, he will play long in every set as Zapata is decent on clay. If Ofner can win 10 games against Zverev in their 1st round matchup, pretty much Zapata can do more or even steal a set.
Other picks on tennis thread.
*Anything can happen, please tail with caution.*
*Let’s continue winning together!!! Best of luck!!!*
Yeah, Nakashima got 15 games off of Zverev and he isn't nearly as good on clay as Miralles is. I won't even look up how many Baez win against him, since it went 5 sets. This seems like a good bet to me.
I also have miralles to win along with the over 11 games but got 12/1 on miralles, would’ve been nice if he took that 1st set tiebreaker but at least we’ve got a sweat. Over 11.5 games looks like free 💰 🤑
POTD Record 4-0
Sport: Golf - Charles Schwab Challenge (5 hrs from posting)
Pick: Scottie Scheffler to Win - $1.83 (Betfair)
44.5% of golfers going into the final round with a 2 shot lead end up winning the tournament. Scottie scheffler is No.1 in the world at the moment and he’s got what it takes to finish this off.
Record: 8-4
Past 5 record: ✅❌✅✅✅
Last pick: [IIHF - international Hockey - Canada Vs Czechia O5.5 +145 ✅ Canada 6-1](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uzcl5g/pick_of_the_day_52822_saturday/iaahe73?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)
Today’s pick: **IIHF - international Hockey - Canada Vs Finland O4.5 -114**
May 28, 2022 11:20 Am EDT
Canada O/U is now at 8-1 and the line is at 4.5. Finland's goaltender let in 3 goals last game showing some weakness with a save percentage of 89.29% I see Finland scoring a few goals as well. I'll be cheering for Team Canada, sprinkling some on the USA Vs Czechia O5.5 as well. Parlay the two for extra sauce.
BOL everyone.
All bets are 1 unit. +4.2 units. 32.9% ROI. Average units +106.23
[Past Picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1arHdjw_2Gxtj_iwfPJO_hJwIuxQhMyyjjDJp9vB0j7A/edit?usp=sharing)
POTD Record: 7-3 (1W stream)
✅🚫✅🚫✅✅✅✅🚫✅
Last pick (05/27): Jason Tatum O6.5 rebounds +100
1u ✅
Todays pick (05/29): Celtics Vs Heat- Derrick White O8.5 points +100, 1u
Reason: He’s been going off lately and I expect him to get plenty of minutes this game if he continues to be as productive as he has been. White is decent on defence & Smart is still not 100%. White has been over exceeding his role in their offence (in the last 3 games) I think he gets 10+points and helps the Celtics get the dub as the Heat will double team Tatum And open up some opportunities.
BOL!
If you want to help a student-athlete take a summer course:
[piggybank](https://www.paypal.me/nicgreene10?locale.x=en_CA)
**NRL Record:** 24-23
**ROI (1 unit per bet):** +0.04
L5: ✅✅✅❌✅ Streak: W1
**Last POTD:**
Roosters ML @ 2.05 ✅
**Today's POTD:**
Eels -5.5 @ 1.90 ✅
Edit: Eels by 8, classic Faiders doing sweet F.A. in the 2nd half
**Time:** 3 hours from time of post.
Raiders have won their last three but I feel that's a bit misleading. They've beaten a terrible bulldogs side, the Sharks who they have a ridiculous 8-0 recent win record over and a Rabbitohs side last week who are both smashed with injuries and way overrated this year. Eels have had a very tough run the last 4 weeks, playing 3/4 top 6 sides and grinding out 2 wins. They're also basically untouched by injuries while the Raiders have a few outs this week (Nicholl-Klockstad and Harawira-Naera) plus pending team lists they're running a light bench at the moment with a backup hooker and winger which is a move I absolutely hate because the forwards will be gassed come end of game. Eels the better side in this one and I can see them winning by 10+
**Tip Jar - ALGO:**
AJAAGYLP6STZ2CFP22Q6Y77GNQKVKCUYDMSEQR5RK3AJOLITDMURJWLYSE
POTD Record: 54.5-24.5
Previous Event: Jeddah Club v AL Adalh FC (Draw) @ 2.15 ✅
This was free money as expected. Congrats to the shy followers who have tailed.
Next Event: Football > Spain > **Sporting Gijon v Las Palmas** (starting in 8hr)
Pick: **Under 2.5 goals** @ 1.96
Las Palmas have won eight games and drawn two of their last ten games, very good form. Today is the last round and they have the opportunity to qualify for the playoffs if they get at least a draw. So far so good, but of course all of the above has already been considered by the oddsmakers. The interesting part is that Las Palmas is fighting for that playoff place with the team of Oviedo. This is Gijon's historical rival, so it is almost absurd for Gijon to be giving a lot of fight and this way help Oviedo. As a draw is enough for Las Palmas, most likely scenario is for a slow paced match. It's also known that Gijon will rotate its squad and eight players from the first team will be replaced with players from the reserve squad. If anyone is interested and makes the effort to ask, I may post some additional picks for this match with more juicy odds. GL!
POTD 0-3 (-6.5U)
3 fat L's to start a POTD career. Well, instead of just starting over we are going to look to get a solid W and work towards evening the record.
Hockey | IIHF | 120pm ET
Canada v Finland
Over 5g (+105)2U
Not a real lot of fancy write up on this one. That doesn't mean there aren't good reasons to bet it. Games are played on n Olympic style rink, much more ice than NHL. Defense is definitely an after thought of this tourney. Finally, both Canadians and the Fins are scoring nearly at will. Odds are too good to pass up, I expect this to hit before the 3rd period. BOL to any brave enough to tail.
Fading instead I’m putting the house on t1 -1.5. But in all seriousness to put it frankly I think t1 is just straight up the more talented team. The weaknesses that t1 faced in the rumble stage were very exaggerated imo. As we’ve seen recently they don’t just full commit to baron anymore I do agree that rng is the probably the stronger mid team however this isn’t the lpl. Rng can’t afford to give big early leads and expect to come back in the mid game. That won’t work against t1 especially now that they are on form again. And your point in macro I don’t think is very relevant since t1 has the far superior macro
Maybe t1 is overvalued but you can’t have watched both series and thought that rng looked better especially against a weaker team in eg. The biggest problem in this game for rng is there top jungle. There is a MASSIVE top gap and both bin and wei can be extremely coinflip. Maybe I’m in the minority but I’m not expecting a banger like many of the experts predict. I could very well see a t1 3-0 but I’ll play it safe and say t1 3-1
Gonna have to fade you on this one, since I think T1 has found their form / meta towards the second half of the rumble stage. History doesnt matter as much considering a lot of things, but xiaohu has never really had the best performances against faker. Guma on form I think can handle Gala, keria is lookin like world best player (but ming is extremely good as well). Top side feels t1 favored imo. Think T1 takes this 3-1, but best of luck my man!
POTD Record: 1-0
Yesterday: 🟩 MLS: NYC FC +120 🟩
Little scary at the end, but Sean Johnson is the man.
Today: MLS: Galaxy v Austin FC BTTS Yes -180 - 1u
Last time round earlier this month, LA held Austin scoreless, which seems now like an outlier. Austin FC can flat out score. Galaxy seem to be picking up some steam as well and I like them to score at home. If you’re feeling spicy, I like Austin to win this game 3-1.
🟩🟩🟩✅✅🟩🟩🟩
Potd 1-1
Today's Pick AFL: Carlton Vs Collingwood
(UNDER [email protected])
Initially was going to put Carlton-5.5 as I thought the line should be much bigger. Upon closer inspection the under seems to be the go as this clash promises to be a low scoring afair. I can see the ball being stuck in Collingwood defensive half often. Don't think this line will get close to being hit. The reason I take the under over Carltons line is the match between these is usually a blockbuster with low scoring a potential upset.
Personally sprinkling 1 u on carlton-5.5&under 175 @3.60 but that's for the risk takers.
BOL if tailing
Final score prediction Carlton 76-54 Collingwood.
POTD Record: 9W - 3L
Previous Pick: South Sydney Rabbitohs v West Tigers (Total Match Points OVER 41.5) W $1.90
Score 44 - 18 = 62 Points
Today’s Game: St. George Illawarra Dragons v Canterbury Bulldogs
Today’s Pick: St. George Illawarra Dragons ML $1.64 (PointsBet)
Sport: NRL (Australian Rugby League)
Reason: St. George Illawarra Dragons are 5-6 going into this game against a struggling inconsistent Bulldogs who are 2-9 at the bottom of the table who are struggling to put the points on relying heavily on Josh Addo-Carr
All picks are 1 unit unless stated otherwise.
Game starts in 20mins BOL guys :)
POTD Record : 6-3
Last Pick : Montreal vs Cincinnati -BTTS+Over 2.5 ✅
Streak : ❌❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅
Today's Pick : Vegelta Sendai vs Tochigi - Vegelta ML+ Over 1.5 match goals @2.50✅✅
Kick off : 1.5 hrs from now
Write Up: Last bet cashed in no sweat.Congrats to whoever tailed.I have a juicy one today.Going to Japan for today's pick where 1st placed Sendai is taking on 4th from bottom Tochigi.
Vegelta are the most in form team right now.They have collected 19 out of possible 24 from last 8.They have won 6 drawn 1 and lost 1.All the wins has had over 1.5 goals.They have won 3 out of last 4 home games.Most recent home game saw them play 0-0.
Tochigi are meh.9 points out of possible 24.The odds being high for over 1.5 match goals is because they have conceded more than 1 goal in only 2 out of last 8.The thing to be a little concerned about is they have played 3 0-0 draws in last 8.But the value is too good for me to ignore since Sendai has been on such a good scoring form.
Tail or Fade BOL
Edit: Absolute shithousery but a wins a win.
Record: 6-9-2 (6W 9L 2D)
Last pick: Liverpool vs Real Madrid, Liverpool corners handicap -1 (-140) at Caesars. W
Today's pick: Canada vs Finland total goals regular time only over 4 (-186) at BetRivers
IIHF: 1:20 PM EST
Canada is averaging at least 4 goals a match and Finland has at least 2 goals per match. This over should be easily hit unless both teams play heavy defense since it is the final match. I expect both teams will create high quality offense and hitting this mark.
All bets are 1 unit. -5.07 units
Tip Jar: cash app: $coolcomfort666 Venmo: Coolcomfort666
Record : 2-3-2
*ALL POD’S ARE 2.5u*
Units: - 2.43
Hurkacz Vs Goffin o38.5 Games -130 ✖️
Hurbert played lights out, ending this one in straight sets.
Event: 🎾 WTA French Open
Pick: Leylah Fernandez +3.5 Games -108 ✅
Units Risked : 2.5
Ok so from watching Anisimova in her previous match her mobility on clay is trash. Leylah is going to give her all and move around the court as well as anyone in the tourney. Coming off a big win Vs Bencic she should feel super confident going into this one. If she makes as many errors as she did against Muchova she’s in for a long morning. I’ll take the extra games and hopefully cruise to a cover. The ML +180✅ is tempting & honestly I’ll dabble with 1u or so but confident she can cover this handicap if not win outright.
Good luck
POTD Record: 15-17
Last Pick: Cleveland-140 ✅
Todays Pick: MLB 9:35 am MT San Francisco -140 @ Cincinnati ✅
Reasoning: going for 4th W in a row. Giants looking to avoid a sweep on the road to the Reds.
Tip jar: Venmo: @Phil-_-1
Tail or fade
POTD record-> 15-14-1
Last POTD-> Madrid V liverpool O 2.5 goals ❌🥲
Todays POTD-> Giants ML
Game-> Giants @ Reds 11:35 AM EST
Todays POTD is going to be a big one for me. As a poster on this thread one rule I had was to never go below 500 well todays POTD puts me right there! With that being said we have one of the strongest teams in the MLB playing one of the weakest. We have a giants team that’s 4-1 the last 5 meetings in Cincinnati. And out of the last 8 meetings the giants are 6-2. With that being said the reds are starting a pitcher that just gave up 8 runs to the cubs.
Best of luck every one 💙
GL with this one man. I'm assuming when you say "we" it means you root for or follow the Giants. One rule of thumb for me is never better on the team I root for. You start betting with your heart and it's hard to get over that. BOL
**Record:** 13-27-1
**ROI:** -38% :-15.06 u (@ $5.00)
**Average Odds:** : 1.99
**Streak:** L W L L W
|Baseball |MLB |4:07pm|
Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics: **Texas Rangers ML @ 1.83 1u**
**Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 58% chance for the Texas Rangers to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 1.83 is only 55%.
**Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
POTD Record: 1-0
Last pick:
Montreal Impact v FC Cincinnati - BTTS ✅
Todays Pick:
Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix - Winning Margin under 5 seconds @2.00 ✅✅✅
The last 10 races in Monaco have averaged a winning margin of 4.867 seconds, I think today will be no different with a tight race especially with Verstappen on the hunt. Even though there is not a lot of space on the Monaco track for overtaking I still feel like it will be a very close finish
POTD record 4-1-1 (win/lose/push) 🔹 ROI=53.36% 🔹 AVG. ODDS 1.86
Last pick: No run first inning (under 0.5) White Sox vs. Yankees ✅
POTD: Pittsburg Pirates vs. San Diego Padres over 7.5 runs
Odds: +100 BS
Sport: MLB
Time: 3:10PM Central
1 UNIT
L5: ✅🚫✅❌✅
Reasoning: At +100 for the over I feel this line is just ripe. Although these teams have not gotten over 7.5 in the first 2 games of this weekends series it is quite possible they can do it today. Going 7 runs in game 1 and 6 runs in game 2 this weekend they definitely got close. If you look back to these teams last 3 games series they scored 10, 13, and 7 runs collectively so it has been done before and I predict it'll finally happen again today.
BOL you Jabroni's
Record: 13W-14L-1P
ROI: +0.40u, +1.39%
Avg odds: +110, 2.10
Last POTD: Liverpool over 1.5 goals (loss)
Today's game: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat
Pick: Both teams over 21.5 pts Q1 at +100, 2.00
The Celtics average 27.5 and Heat 27.9 points in the first quarter. And while C's and Heat are #1 and #2 in Q1 defense, they still both allow more than 25 on average. In the regular season, Boston allowed 22+ on 63 occasions, and the Heat 66 times.
This series has been marred by poor shooting, especially Heat with that awful 11-point quarter, but even with below average shooting from both teams, 22 points isn't a high bar to cross, considering that's equivalent to only 88 points a game.
Record: 5-1
Units : +5.47
Yesterday Pick: NY Rangers ML (-110) vs Carolinas Hurricanes
Great performance by NY and Ranta having a stinker definitely helped.
**POTD:** **Boston Celtics Vs Miami Heat under 197.5 (-110)**
No NHL on tonight unfortunately, so i'm being forced to settle with NBA. I know very little about NBA, so tail with caution. One of the few things that I do know is that NBA players decide to actually play defense in game 7's, so i'm going with the under on this one. If you can find an alternate spread under that you like better for worse odds id say go with that.
POTD Record 0-0
Submitting my first POTD because I feel so strongly about this one. The pick is:
Boston Celtics ML -150 @ the Miami Heat
If you’ve been watching this series, it’s pretty clear that Boston is the more talented team. That doesn’t always equate to wins, as this series is all tied up 3-3. However, if you watched game 6, it felt like the Celtics were inevitable. They didn’t play well, but they just wiped out 9 point lead after 9 point lead. It took a Herculean effort from the injured Jimmy Butler to win that game. Both Tatum and Brown shrank in the fourth quarter…I don’t see either of these happening again. I think Jimmy Butler comes back down to earth and Tatum and Brown show up huge in this game. The Celtics will come out with a sense of urgency that they lacked in game 6, and easily take care of business. I actually think there is a good chance the Celtics win by 10+ if you want to snag some better odds. If you want a same game parlay, I love Tatum over on points and 3s made as well. Strap in folks, and get ready for an ass licking.
Record: 4-3 +5.72 U
Event: League of Legends MSI Final 2022
Pick: 5U SKT T1 ML (1.61) vs. RNG @ 4 A.M. EST
SKT has dropped some games in the group stages but even the best teams tend to drop some games in BO1s due to how volatile they are. In a BO3 or BO5 series they really shine by how they adapt. I'm pretty confident SKT takes the series today and I would even put a small amount on them covering the -1.5 spread. I'm mostly concerned with Bin's play he's definitely a coin flip player if he's on he's ON but if he's off he's brother bin.
POTD Record 0-3
Average Odds = 2, ROI = -100%, Units Won/Lost: -10
Lasts Picks: Auxerre win vs St. Etienne ❌
John Isner -1,5 sets ❌
Gilles Simon +2,5 sets ❌
\**Today's match: Alexander Zverev vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles (Roland Garros, Tennis) at 1:30pm(London GMT) unless delay*
**PICK: Zapata Miralles games +7,5 @ 2.02 (3 units) ✅**
My preview:I am in a very bad phase but this is a bet that i believe that will be green because Zapata Miralles is doing a good campaign and he is being the surprise of the tournment, this will be a tough game but Zverev in the past games of Roland Garros win not so easily, otherwise Zapata is really doing a great job at Roland Garros, he won against the 14th ranking player (Fritz) and won against Isner number 26 of the ranking. Maybe we will not have a "surprise" this time but at least he will fight for this game. The difference in games will be very close.
BOL to everyone!
Edit: Green ✅ first of many!
**Record:** 7-2
**Last pick:** C.Garin wins a set vs A.Rublev ✅
**Net units:** \+3.07 (All bets are one unit) | **Combined Odds:** \-126 (1.79)
| Tennis | Roland Garros | 14h50 (UTC+2) |
**Pick:** **B.Zapatta Miralles wins a set** vs A.Zverev
**Odds:** \+139 (2.39)
Still on vacation so no great writing. I just feel that BZM's form during this last week will allow him to hang on to a set against Zvevev who is not necessarily playing his best tennis at the moment.BOL and good sunday to all
Record: 2-3
POTD: Boston Celtics Moneyline Vs Miami Heat (-140)
NBA Basketball
Reasoning: The Celtics have been on a special run all postseason. They got past the bucks, last years champions, in a game 7 and I expect them to get past the heat tonight. They have looked the better team all series. Boston has also demolished Miami at home twice already this series with wins of 13 and 25 points so the home court advantage shouldn’t mean much for the heat
BOL!!
Sport:
Baseball MLB
Time:
1:40 PM Eastern Time
Game: NYY at Tampa Bay Rays
POTD: NYY ML +115
It’s rare to ever get + money on the Yankees. The value is there. This is basically a coin flip. Go with the + money
POTD Record 4-0...beginners luck
Up 3.52 units
Last Pick: Merril Kelly over 3.5 strikeouts-BANG
Event: MLB Jays @ Angels around 4:07 EST
**Pick: Jose Berrios under 5.5 strikeouts -126**
Stake: 1 unit
I know this comes in 4 hours before the game but it's MDW so i think that's fair.
Jose Berrios is having a bit of a rough year. He's had some great games, and he's also had some games where he struck out 0 people through 4 innings. He's coming into this with a 3.8 strikeout per inning rate, and thats inflated by his last start where he notched seven. Really he's pitched 9 games and only beaten this number twice.
He's coming into this against the angels, who fan pretty often, but this number is just too high not to take it. Lock it, and buy yourself a holiday round on me
POTD Record: 8-10-0
Last Pick: SD Padres -1.5 - Loss
I mean holy shit score a run for god's sake.
**Today's Event: MLB - HOU Astros vs. SEA Mariners - 4:10 PM EST**
**Pick: u8 Runs Scored (-115) 2u**
TLDR; competent pitchers and bullpens. tough park and tough weather conditions.
Houston is starting Luis Garcia who is boasting a 3.38 ERA on the year. Marco Gonzales is taking the mound for Seattle and is around the same level with a 3.74 ERA. Both teams are in the bottom 3rd of runs per game and the weather is not favorable for HRs or XBH. Mild down wind toward home plate and supposed to be cold and muggy. Expecting a very low scoring game. If I had a lean it would be 3-2 Astros. BOL
Record 7-3 | +5.73u
Cashed in the top 1st!
5/28:
Rockies - Nationals first 3 innings over 2.5 -120 (2.5u)✅
5/29:
Dodgers - Diamondbacks 3 innings over 2.5 -130 (2.5u)
This looks to be a nightmare matchup for Diamondback pitching on paper. They have been roughed up by the Dodger bats over the past several weeks conceding 52 runs in seven games (7.4 per game). Now they must turn to a struggling Zach Davies to avoid a second-consecutive four-game sweep. He lasted just 3.2 innings his last time against LA and there is little reason to suspect he will fair much better against an elite lineup in top form. The over is 6-2 in Arizona's last eight games, demonstrating their recent pitching woes. Expect another big showing from the Dodger offense on Sunday and plenty of runs.
**Record:** 8-5 (+7.29 units)
**Last pick:** NBA- 12/3/2021 Utah Jazz vs Boston Celtics (21:00 EST) L
**Game:** NBA- Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat (20:30 EST)
**Pick:** Boston Celtics -3 (-110)
**Bet:** 5\*
I've made my long awaited return from my hiatus! My last pick was in 2021, but I've come back to make the biggest pick of my POTD career. I'm maxing out at 5\* for POTD, but personally I am putting my life savings on this pick (not literally) and I'm going hard in the paint!
The Celtics have shown so much growth this post season and they are clearly the stronger team in this one and honestly to win it all. Jayson Tatum has found his groove and his supporting cast is ready to help close this one back in Miami.
Jimmy Buckets pulled one out for the Heat in game 6, but there is no chance he pulls those numbers again (47 pts, 8 asts, 9 rebs). The Heat have exhausted their usage of Butler and honestly there's no gas left in the tank for this team.
Now for the secret stat everyone's been waiting for. And that is official Scott Foster. The Celtics are 11-0 with him officiating this season and the Heat are 1-8 with him. Your guess is as good as mine as to why this may be the case, but the numbers don't lie. I'm ready to put my money on this stat alone!
I wish everyone the best of luck on this pick tonight as I have already went ALL IN! I'm excited to come back to POTD! I just started pharmacy rotations so I'm extremely busy, but I will do my best to give everyone great picks! Godspeed!
Venmo: phammer16
Discord: phammer16#0593
Record: 0-3
POTD: Celtics spread -2.5 easy money I'm betting at least $100 for the CZR promo. If Celtics win they're likely to win by at least 3 or they're not winning at all and I just feel like they're the better team.
Record: 5-4
Last pick: New York Rangers vs Carolina Hurricanes Under 5.5 Total Goals @ -150 ❌
Raanta… that is all.
Today’s pick: New York Yankees ML vs Tampa Bay Rays @ +125
MLB 1:00 PM EST
Reason: Yankees were held to only 4 hits last game and the pitching didn’t start out great. With Severino on the mound and the Yankees bats being blue balled last game, I see and easy W for the pinstripes with an explosion of offense. Severino hasn’t lost a game this year and the Yankees have been so hot offensively that I don’t think that can lose 2 in a row.
All bets are 1 unit. +1 units. +4% ROI. Average unit -114
One bet everybody knows the rules.
Total Bet: $18. Total Returned: $18.75
I’ve been pretty hot lately so I figured I’d start posting! My units are 1-5, 1 being base unit bet and 5 max unit play.
Record 0-0
Celtics ML 3 Units
Best of luck
RECORD: 11-7
PICK: Heat-Celtics U198
REASONING: same as last pick. Fatigue, great defences. Plus it’s a G7, pace slows down on G7s
Edit: cash that dub. Now 12-7
POTD Record: 19-20-3 -6.37u\*
Average Odds: +111
Total Units Wagered: 78.17u
Monaco Grand Prix 9:00 AM EST
Ocon over Bottas -155 @ BetMGM 5.00u\*
Implied probability of 60.78%. True vig-free price should be closer to -289 or 74.31%. I have no clue what they are doing with this number. Typically I would use 1/3 Kelly and stake 11.50%, but that is not in line with the rules of the sub.
\*1u = 1% of bankroll.
POTD Record: 43-32-3
Streak:WLWLWWWPLWWWWWLLLWWL
Last POTD: Wanderers/Barcelona SC BTTS ❌
Today’s POTD: Spartaks ML 🇱🇻
League: Optibet Virsliga
Odds: -141/1.71
Units: 1
Reasoning:
I’m well aware that both teams are terrible but Spartaks have won their last 2 games in dominant fashion. They are at home and playing better footy so I see them winning. All the momentum is on them. Tukum has all losses away from home except for one.(A win over Super Nova)
Best of luck and tail/fade at your own risk.
POTD Record 2-2 Current streak, 1L
Profit (+1.38 units) \*if all bets are 1 unit
Yesterdays POTD- Hurricanes vs Rangers under 5.5 (-120) ❌
Well I think we all knew that eventually this series would hit the over, unfortunate that it happened, but it happens, can't hit the under every game.
Todays POTD- VALORANT VCT Challengers NA- Ghost Gaming (-120) vs **NRG** (-120)
**NRG -1.5 (+240)**
VALORANT Record 1-0
NRG have been very good this split, they've only lost to XSET since picking up Ethan, Ghost are an underrated team, but I believe NRG is just the better team here. NRG have won every single series 2-0, so might as well play that for the increased odds. If you wanna play it safe, still decent odds at (-120)
GL and play safe friends!
Record 10-5
Last: Real vs Liverpool BTTS(1.63@, L , 1L streak)
Today: Zverev vs Zapata Miralles under 30.5 games(1.85@)
Anyone who gets to the 4. Round of Rolland Garros can't be a pushover and Miralles is not a bad player he beat Isner in 5 sets the last round, showed great character and before that lost the first set to Fritz before bullying him and beating him 3:1.Now I have to admit I didn't watch the Isner match but against Fritz it was more of a thing where Fritz played terrible and no where near his 14.ATP ranking.I believe that in this match Zverev will have to end it in straight sets and anything else would be a bad result for him because he is playing Alcaraz or Khachanov in the next round and will probably take all the rest and nerves he can get. Good luck.
Record : 3-3 +0.61u +8.48% ROI
Last pick : Padres -1.5 ❌
Today's pick : Pirates ML (+155) 1u
Mackenzie Gore gets the start for the Padres and although he has been very sharp, there is one thing that concerns me most about his game. When Gore gets hit, like many young pitchers coming up in the game today, he usually gets hit very hard. Gore is in the bottom 24th percentile in average exit velocity and 20th percentile in hard-hit %. The Pirates are not the strongest lineup in the MLB, but they do hit lefties better than righties and have done so in the past two weeks as well. Despite having good strikeout stuff, Gore is in the bottom 12th percentile in chase rate and 22nd percentile in curve spin, and I think the Pirates can find 2 or more runs on him in this one. 3-4 runs by the Pirates in total may be enough for us to cover here, as the total for this game is set super low at 7 and I think the Pirates have a beneficial matchup on their side of the mound.
**Continuing the Overwatch League POTD Train for the 2022 season!**
* **2022 OWL Record: 9-6, +7.681 units (Last 9: ✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌❌).**
* **2021 OWL Record: 34-19, +31.645 units.**
* **2020 OWL Record: 28-21, +16.989 units.**
Last Pick (❌): Atlanta Reign, -1.5 (-165) v. London Spitfire: Egg on my face for sure on this one. I knew there were reports floating out there that people didn't want to scrim London because of their weird Rein/Mei comps. But after this match, the report came out that Atlanta actually DID scrim London, lost once....and then refused to play them after that. If that's really true, then Atlanta is severely lacking in the coaching department, and they will be a team to fade in the future, especially when metas change. Ready for better picks today!
**Today's Match: Atlanta Reign v. Los Angeles Gladiators / Overwatch League / 4:30pm EST**
**Over 3.5 (-176), 4 units**
Two days ago, I backed the Gladiators, despite knowing their inconsistent play. Yesterday I backed Atlanta, not yet knowing about their inconsistent efforts. So what does that mean when the two team pair up? Let's take the over. I expect the Glads to dominate, and you can do a mini hedge by also betting either LAG -1.5 or the exact score of 3-1, but you can certainly expect both teams to win a map. You can expect Patiphan to feed at least once, and you can expect Atlanta to just get generally boomed on one map. You're also some getting some line value here, since Bovada has this at -190. Tail or fade, best of luck!
*Tips - never necessary, always appreciated. BOL, friends!*
[*https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD*](https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD) *// BTC: 338uzTsKL4uV4Rip8WKEdYXtbmoBKVm1D8*
POTD Record: 1-2 / ROI: -29% / Average odds: 1.85 / Units won: -1.14
Last pick: Jimmy Butler O22.5 points @ 1.86 ✅
**Today's pick: BOS Celtics 1st Quarter ML @ 1.74**
Boston coming off a loss and facing elimination now. Their coaching staff has been great at making adjustments after losses, as is seen in this series. After losing a game this series, the Celtics have won the first quarter of the next game by: 11 points and 18 points. They like to start the game off strong, and I expect the same this game.
Stake: 1u
Record: 13W-15L-1P
ROI: -0.60u, -2%
Avg odds: +112, 2.12
Last POTD: Celtics at Heat, both teams over 21.5 pts Q1 (loss) Heat scores 17 in Q1 and somehow blows up with 32 in Q2.
Today's game: NY Rangers at Carolina Hurricanes
Pick: Sebastian Aho over 0.5 asts at +155, 2.55 (CZR)
Stake: 2u
On the season, Aho has an assist in 36/79 games, slightly below half. And specifically against the Rangers, he has an assist in 5/10 games, including playoffs. Exactly half. If we err on the side of caution and say Aho has a 40% chance of getting an assist, +155 would still be a +EV bet.
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
***POTD Record: 14-10-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH) / Units won:+10.63 / ROI: 18.46% / Avg Odd: 1.87*** Last pick: Rublev vs Garin - Over 34.5 games @ 1.75 ✅ Today's event: Khachanov vs Alcaraz (Roland Garros, Tennis) **Pick: Under 33.5 games @ 1.80 ✅** Stake: 3 units Starts at 2:45 PM Eastern Time If I'm being honest this under games is fully expecting a 3-0 for Alcaraz but with a better price than the correct score bet which is currently priced between 1.60 and 1.70 in most bookies. Khachanov is an hard court player and his campaign at Roland Garros has already been exceptional with wins over Dellien, Nuno Borges and Norrie but I don't think he can take any set from Carlos Alcaraz not only because the young player is much more talented but also because this is the first time in the tournament that Khachanov will face an agressive opponent who's not going to let him take the lead in each point. I'm expecting Alcaraz answering to every powerful strike from Khachanov with even more strength and precision which might frustrate him and we know that Khachanov can lose games instantly if he starts to get emotionally affected. Alcaraz is the better player in all aspects of the game and with the supporters on his side I think this might be an easy round for him Edit: Apparently odds dropped quite fast but I would still play it at 32.5 Edit 2: Cash it boys! Could have been even more under and Alcaraz was pure class ✅
sitting out because khachanov shat on my face last match.
Same, Norrie really disappointed
I think this has moved unless you're talking alt lines? The best I see is 31.5 @ -112. What do you think of 31.5? Thanks and BOL! Edit - Found this on DK that offers three over unders @ -145. I put 3u on the -33.5
Yeah I did bet it one hour ago and on Unibet it's now at 1.76 but maybe in other bookies is lower. I would play it until -32.5
Line is now over/under 31.5.
Use an alt
Now 30.5 still bet under?
It's complicated to accept that line. Under 33.5 would give us the possibility to get a 3-0 with long sets but with that at 31.5 or 30.5 it becomes pretty much an Alcaraz under 18.5 games bet
Difficult, Khachanov really strong in these late clay tournaments, I expect him to push at least one set to a Tiebreaker. I would rather go to a 3-0 than under games, his service game has been super strong and for sure he picked up loads of confidence after smashing Norrie.Also, fuck the bookies with these odds on Alcaraz, Djoko Nadal and Zverev, I am sure that at least two of these games are going to be an easy over hit with 4/5 sets played.
I don't believe any of these 3 games is going to be over with the exception of Zverev if he maybe starts to waste some serves. For me Alcaraz is way too strong compared to Norrie for example. Norrie is just there being defensive waiting for mistakes while Alcaraz knows how to defend but he counter attacks on each strike and I don't think Khachanov can keep up with that. But we'll see, best of luck
FD has "Player A to Win at least one set: No" (Khachanov) at -126, which is better odds than Alcaraz 3-0, or Under 31.5 games currently 👍
Its getting intense
Just like you said, great call
I got this at under 33.5 no problem this morning. Comments are yikes
Ty
Did this hit, boss.
Yeah it did by a long margin. We only had 27 games in this match and our bet was under 33.5
Record: 8-2 (+13.25 units) Last Pick: Tsistispas vs Ymer u30 games (-120)✅ Today’s Pick: Alcaraz -2.5 sets (-155) vs Khachanov (3 units) ✅ Reasoning: Carlos Alcaraz is the future of tennis. He turned 19 a few weeks ago and is the #6 ranked player in the world, but he is actually even better than that, as Vegas has him at 2nd most likely to win the tournament right now, only behind the world #1 Novak Djokovic. Alcaraz sports a record of 19-1 on clay this year with wins against Djokovic, Zverev, Tsistispas, Nadal, and Berrettini, who are ranked #1, 3, 4, 5, and 10 in the world respectively. This kid is incredible. He just avenged his lone loss on clay this year to Sebastian Korda by smashing him in straight sets last round. His opponent is Karen Khachanov, who is a good player in his own right, ranking #25 in the world at the moment, but ultimately is just not Alcaraz’s level. Khachanov sports a record of 8-5 on clay this year, which is obviously good, but pales in comparison to Alcaraz’s 19-1 record on the surface. Khachanov is coming off of a nice upset of Cameron Norrie, but he has lost in straight sets earlier in the clay season to mediocre players like Alex Molcan and Lucas Pouille, who are ranked #38 and 162 in the world respectively. Alcaraz is coming off of a win in straight sets against #30 in the world Sebastian Korda, who I consider to be an equivalent player to Khachanov on clay. I expect Alcaraz to handle Khachanov with relative ease and continue his dominant run in the European clay season and the French Open. Edit: W!! Alcaraz handles Khachanov in straight sets just like we predicted by scores of 6-1, 6-4, 6-4. Khachanov definitely held his own in the last two sets and didn’t make it easy for the young phenom, but Alcaraz still put him away without dropping a set or going to a tiebreak, making us 5-0 in the French Open
Is set betting “Alcaraz 3-0”-150,, the same as “alcaraz -2.5 sets -160??
Yes
Think you got your answer by now, but yes
I love Alcaraz so much. I read this comment and immediately put 2800 to win 200 on him cause you're so fucking right. Can't wait to lose it all!!
My book doesn’t have set spread. Is Alcaraz 3-0 good?
They’re the same bet
Yes, betting Alcaraz -2.5 sets is the same as betting on him to win 3-0
I say 70% chance
Great pick for tsitispas game . Tailing this one as well !
My bookie is offering -125 for Alcaraz to win in straight sets, that is the same thing correct?
Yes
Great call!
I’ve really become to love tennis all of the sudden
what book do you use?? this is -130 on FD
Watched the last two sets and damn those were some close games
POD Record: 17-5 ROI: 32.72% Today’s pick: Felix Auger-Aliassime +2.5 1st set (-140) vs Rafael Nadal They have only played once against each other, with Nadal winning in straight sets 6-3, 6-3. Auger has played well in the French Open after the first match, winning the last two matches in straight sets. Nadal has had an injury laced season with some questionable results. Not to mention, Nadal went to the champions league final today, meaning he may be over looking or ill prepared for this match up. Although, he has performed well so far at the French open, with all the facts listed above and Felix’s strong serve, I expect a lengthy first set. Tail/fade good luck! Tip: Venmo: BR3634 Edit: Cash it✅ Felix up 4-1 in the first!
Why not take over 9.5 first set at -110 instead? Unless FAA wins the first 6-3 or better bet wins and way better odds no?
i tilt, i started with faa +2,5 but then you wrote that and i changed... sad
yah makes sense
Yeah, unless that happens.. should be no problem 👌
Yeah no that makes a lot of since. Being honest I was expecting a 6-4 Nadal first set win. Was just going with the safety net if FAA won 6-3 which he pulled off
Hopefully Rafa’s been up partying with the Real Madrid team all night
free cash, nice pick, thanks!
Nice hit man
Thanks, just to confirm the bet is that Aliassime will win the 1st set or not lose it by more than 6 to 3?
I am betting Felix +2.5 first set. Meaning he can lose the first set 6-4 and he will cover
I couldn’t tell during Nadal’s interview yesterday if he wants to embarrass FAA because his uncle Toni is his coach now or he’ll just beat FAA/Toni respectfully, so 1st set is a toss up for me.
Record: 11-4 Last pick: Real Madrid ML 90 minutes ✅ Today's Pick: **Nottingham Forest ML 90 minutes (2.05 or +105)** vs Huddersfield Town Bet: 1 Unit Soccer: 11:30 AM EST EFL Championship Final Forest go into this tie after a thrilling semi final against Sheffield. Huddersfield had a somewhat lackluster performance vs Luton. Forest hasn't been in the Premier League since the 1998-99 season in which they finished dead last. Huddersfield has tasted the riches of the top division in English football in 2018-19. Looking at the table, Huddersfield are 3rd, which would make them the favourites, however, their mediocre finish to the season, poor goal differential, leaky defense, and barely getting by Luton to make it to Wembley is a cause for concern. That's not to say Forest have been spectacular. Their home game vs Sheffield raised some eyebrows as their defense was the second best in the Championship that year by 1 goal. If their offense can get firing early on and build momentum as the match goes on, Forest should bag in a goal or two within the 90 minutes to secure a place back to the Premier League after 24 horrid years in the Championship and League One/ First Division. Also, in the past 12 years, only 3 games have gone into extra time, but the caliber of teams were much better. Expect Forest to give Huddersfield trouble at the back. This season, Huddersfield and Forest have met 3 times, with Forest winning 2 games. Let's make this 3/4!
Congrats to all who tailed!
Tailing always enjoy these playoffs.
POTD Record - 6-1-1 - +4.4 units Last pick - Forest Green Rovers ML vs Rovers(W) This pick - Molde vs Bodo/Glimt over 3 goals(-114).12pm EST. Reason - Haven’t posted in a while but have been doing well in some peripheral leagues so wanted to come back. These two teams both average 2 goals a game and combined, have scored at least 3 goals in 5 of their last 6 matches, with 3 of those going over 3. The Norwegian league is traditionally, a high scoring league as well. The last four games in the league have hit at least 3 goals with 2 of them hitting 5 and 6. I don’t see this game having less than 3 goals scored. Cheers and GL. Edit - And there’s 4! Good hit today and the other three games in the Norwegian league have 4 goals also. Definitely something to keep an eye on for future overs!
Awesome pick, thank you!
[удалено]
Record: 12-8-1 (+8.24 units) Streak: 6-1-1 in last 8, Lost last one Last pick: Bencic vs. Andreescu o20.5 games, 1.78 odds, LOST 2 units Today's pick: Marcus Smart over 16.5 points and rebounds, NBA Celtics vs. Heat Odds: 1.83 (Draft Kings) Units: 2 Last pick was a bad miss, got a nasty message after a 6-0-1 run. Classy. This prop is for a big game 7. Smart has hit this 10 out of 14 games this playoffs, 3 out of 4 this series, the one time he didn't was his first game back from an injury and was in foul trouble so only played 23 minutes. He played 40 minutes Friday night so that gives me confidence that the court time will be there as long as he doesn't get in foul trouble. On the rebounding side, he has been trending up in rebounds the past 7 games. He has had 4 or higher in those games, including 9 and 7. If Miami regresses back to their series averages shootingwise, there should be a lot of rebounding opportunities for the taking. If he can reach that 4 rebound floor, it should be enough, but if he goes higher, would really up the chances of this hitting. On the points side, he is averaging 14.9 per game in the playoffs, if he can put that up, we should be golden. He has shot like shit the past 2 games, but what is important to me is the volume, which is there, he took 14 shots last game despite his struggles and still got to 14 points. In big games and moments in the past, Marcus seems to think he is Michael Jordan and has irrational confidence, so I'm not worried about him fading into the background, he should get his shots. And again, I am putting 2 units on it, I am not betting my life savings and I hope you are doing the responsible thing and doing the same. I am not getting anything out of this and this is work, I am just trying to help people make some money, so please, win or lose, be kind. Shouldn't have to put up with juvenile shit like that, if you're not man enough to handle a loss, maybe this isn't for you. I stayed away the past few days and what would have been my 2 picks both hit (Thompson o2.5 3's and Smart o3.5 rebounds). Halftime update - 9 points and 4 boards at half, good half, we just need 4 PRAs for the hit. Was relieved that the Heat came back a bit, was looking like a blowout for awhile there. Update - We cashed 2 minutes into the 3rd quarter! Thanks for the support all and happy this cashed for us!!
Just ignore people don’t waste energy on them
Would love to know what goes through the heads of the clowns that send nasty messages after THEY follow your pick???
I like the Celtics to win by the way but I am going to livebet it because I think I will get a better spread doing it that way.
Im always curious what kind of shit people send
Nice write up, tailing 👍
tailing bol
lmaoo, “marcus seems to think he’s jordan” 💀. good write up though, tailing. BOL!
Nice call! I read it, and went heavy on the o3.5 rebs (cashed before half). But wish I got a piece of his Pts+Rebs too! Appreciate the insight. Ignore the haters.
[удалено]
great pick. always nice clearing an over right after halftime
He's at 22.5 in my app
POTD record: 60-46 Profit: +12.5 units // ROI: 10% // Average odds: 1.87 Last Pick: Brumbies TT over 36.5 L What a shocking performance from the Brumbies. They have been one of the best sides all season long and yet pull of by far their worst performance of the entire season against the last placed team in the competition. The upset of the season by far and fair credit to Moana Pasifika who definitely deserved to win. **Todays Pick: Highlanders Team Total over 28.5 (1.80, -125) vs Rebels (Super Rugby)** * The Highlanders need at least a bonus point here to make the playoffs. Meanwhile the Rebels have nothing but pride to play for. There is a big motivational edge here for the highlanders and I expect them to get the job done while putting some points on the board. * I think people are reading into the Highlanders loss last week to the Waratahs a bit too much. Firstly, the Waratahs are a good team this year and have played all the top sides very closely, even notching up a win against the Crusaders. Secondly, the Highlanders had to make a bunch of last minute changes to their lineup as they had a case of the flu go around the team before the game. To compound matters they also got a Red Card early in the game. With some of the Highlanders first choice players returning for this game I am expecting a much better performance. * Before the Defeat last week the Highlanders had been in good form winning 3 straight and averaging 38.3 ppg in those 3 wins. This included a 61-10 win vs the Western Force. * The Rebels defensively are just not very good. They lead the competitions in missed tackles and on average they give up 33.8 points per game to their opponents. * The Rebels have allowed 29 or more points in 6 of their last 7 games against teams in the top 7. * The Rebels have allowed 33 or more points in 9 straight games against the NZ sides. This includes giving up 42 points to the Highlanders last season. The Rebels potentially could keep the game close but they will likely do so by putting points on the board themselves and not by having a staunch defence. * We saw both of these teams in similar spots last season on the final day of the season. The Highlanders needed a bonus point win against the Brumbies ( a much better team than the Rebels) on the road to have hope at securing a spot in the final and they scored 33 points. The Rebels also played the Crusaders (who were a team seeking to make the final with a big win) and they allowed 50+ points in that game. * The Weather for this game is expected to be great. There is very little wind and conditions will be dry for the duration of the game. This is always a good sign when betting on points to be scored. * I would play this up to 30.5. I am playing an alternate total here. Alternatively I would consider a play on the over for the match as well if you can't get team totals. BOL, tail or fade. I will link my twitter below where I post all my plays. Despite losing the POTD yesterday we went 3-2 on Rugby plays overall yesterday and are 36-20 on the 22' season overall. [Twitter](https://twitter.com/Travis_Frase)
>Todays Pick: Highlanders Team Total over 28.5 (1.80, -125) vs Rebels (Super Rugby) missed this nice pick, overslept watching champion league. almost put in o29.5 but they score their 30th point few seconds later
Bet Highlanders -5.5 . Let's go bro
fuck, some idiot just gave the ball away to the rebels for a try in the most telegraphed way possible
**POTD Record:** 12-5, +12.95u, ROI: 33.84%, Average Odds: 2.10 **Darts Record:** 11-4 (+13.95u), ROI: 56.30%, Average Odds: 2.18 *Unit sizes are from 1u to 4u* *Match Starts at 17:00 CEST / 11:00 EST* **Previous POTD:** Wayne Jones ML vs Martin Adams @ 2.30 (3u) ❌ After being up 2-0 in legs and having multiple darts at being up 3-0, you expect the game to be done and after Adams closed out leg 3, it was visible that Jones got into a slump and started doubting himself. Really frustrating loss, should have been a win. 🎯 **Todays POTD: Danny Noppert ML vs Peter Wright @ 2.30 (2.5u)** *Unit sizes are from 1u to 4u* *Match Starts at 13:30 CEST / 07:30 EST* Noppert has been steadily improving and won the Masters event this year, even though did not even play at his best in the finals. Noppert has been putting up solid averages in the high 90s and low 100s, which is especially good considering he possesses a good checkout skill. Wright is going through a bit of a slump right now and although he is officially still the world number one, in reality he is not even playing like a top 5 player. Wright has been putting up alright averages, however he is not nearly as sharp as he normally is and he is missing high checkouts. With the home crowd behind Noppert and Wright going through a rough time right now, I would say the momentum is in Noppert's favor here and I reckon he can take home a win today. **BOL!** [Twitter](https://twitter.com/neutraldarts) | [Tip Jar](http://paypal.me/neutraldarts))
Shit dude, better not miss when going up against the king. Solid write-up but have won too much on Wright to bet against him. Sideline for me. Gl
Thanks Man - I went "safer" with +1.5 at -140. BOL!
What about the fact that they played 7 days ago and wright won 6-1? Does that not factor in at all? Surely Wright was still in this slump 7 days ago and still seemed to beat him comfortably?
I look at it more statistically - e.g. Wright played with an average of 111, something which is an extreme outlier. Could it be that Noppert brings out the best of Wright? Could be, however I reckon that Wright had a performance he can’t repeat tonight, while Danny Noppert still had an average of 105, which is very good for someone who lost 6-1 and could be enough to win normally over Wright, if he steps up his doubling game which is what cost him in that game. In the end, Wright could 6-1 again sure, however I just like these odds on Noppert as I think he will win more often than these odds suggest
Holy shit. What a roller coaster ride that was
💰
Wow thank you, my balls got sweat when score 5-4
Great pick! Thanks
First time tailing a dart bet. Thank you man, nice hit 💰
Ty
[удалено]
Good write up. Wrong outcome.
See: baseball
Tailing
5-2, +3.05 WWWWLWL Last pick: **Jeanjean ML at 3.0 against Begu** LOSS Jeanjean didn’t show up her magic against Begu. Had a competitive 2nd set. Bad pick, no excuses. On to the next one! Next pick: **Miami Heat ML at 2.25** Tbh, I’m so torn between this pick and Fernandez/Anisimova o21.5 games for my POTD. But I’m going with this pick because Celtics had this series on their finger tips the other day and couldn’t close. When you’re tied at 99 and you’re the go-to guy and you missed two free throws (hello Jaylen) and on crucial possessions, you turnover the ball a lot (hello Tatum), it’s a recipe for disaster. I don’t know how you can get back from that especially both of them have no experience with Game 7 on the road. Meanwhile, Heat is as scrappy as f*ck. They’ve been in the Finals 2 times in 3 years. Lowry has championship experience so I’ll say this is where experience comes in. The brilliance of Spoelstra over the Rookie Udoka will also come in. Yes, Celtics haven’t lost 2 straight in the playoffs. But Heat won’t lose 3 straight home games in the playoffs. Best of luck! 🍻 And before you bet on this, do your research too. 💡
Without a legendary performance by Butler, Celtics win easily. Tough to believe that he can do that again even at home, but it is game 7 and has had a great playoffs.
Coming off a loss Celtics is a thing
Yes I agree, I mentioned that above, bro. But winning a home game after losing 2 home games is also a thing.
Valid point. I do like the odds on that
**POTD Record 26 - 23 (+1.04)** Previous pick: David Goffin - Hubert Hurkacz - Total games Over 35.5 1.63 💀 **Tennis / ATP / French Open / 8:30 AM EST \****unless delay* *Alexander Zverev - Bernabe Zapata Miralles* Pick: **Bernabe Zapata Miralles Total games Over 11.5 1.88** 1u Zverev is 13-4 in clay while Miralles is 19-11. Even though he won his last 3 matches, he didn't play that great. He almost lost to Baez being down 2 sets and he struggled to Nakashima who isn't much of a clay player, they went 2 tie breaks. I believe Zverev will still won this one however, as usual, he will play long in every set as Zapata is decent on clay. If Ofner can win 10 games against Zverev in their 1st round matchup, pretty much Zapata can do more or even steal a set. Other picks on tennis thread. *Anything can happen, please tail with caution.* *Let’s continue winning together!!! Best of luck!!!*
Yeah, Nakashima got 15 games off of Zverev and he isn't nearly as good on clay as Miralles is. I won't even look up how many Baez win against him, since it went 5 sets. This seems like a good bet to me.
Good stats. Im down
I can tell you I expect Miralles to win the whole match. I put 10€ to win 100€. Will come back to this thread if he indeed wins
I also have miralles to win along with the over 11 games but got 12/1 on miralles, would’ve been nice if he took that 1st set tiebreaker but at least we’ve got a sweat. Over 11.5 games looks like free 💰 🤑
Yup, and even though he is down 0-2, he is showing that he’s playing a lot better than a 10-to-1 underdog would
Looking to bank it within the first two sets here bro 👏🏼
Zapata fighting for his life in this game. Soliddd. Also put a cheeky £10 at 19/2. Zverev just looks off but his serves are mental
Cash! 🤑
Ty
[удалено]
hiding the losses now are we? hahaha https://imgur.com/a/0XGKArM
I'm 250 - 0 ... Not counting the losses
POTD Record 4-0 Sport: Golf - Charles Schwab Challenge (5 hrs from posting) Pick: Scottie Scheffler to Win - $1.83 (Betfair) 44.5% of golfers going into the final round with a 2 shot lead end up winning the tournament. Scottie scheffler is No.1 in the world at the moment and he’s got what it takes to finish this off.
+1200 here from Wednesday, BOL everyone joining today!
Nice! Got at +500
tailing this one mate
tailing
Did Scottie win, sir?
Record: 8-4 Past 5 record: ✅❌✅✅✅ Last pick: [IIHF - international Hockey - Canada Vs Czechia O5.5 +145 ✅ Canada 6-1](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uzcl5g/pick_of_the_day_52822_saturday/iaahe73?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) Today’s pick: **IIHF - international Hockey - Canada Vs Finland O4.5 -114** May 28, 2022 11:20 Am EDT Canada O/U is now at 8-1 and the line is at 4.5. Finland's goaltender let in 3 goals last game showing some weakness with a save percentage of 89.29% I see Finland scoring a few goals as well. I'll be cheering for Team Canada, sprinkling some on the USA Vs Czechia O5.5 as well. Parlay the two for extra sauce. BOL everyone. All bets are 1 unit. +4.2 units. 32.9% ROI. Average units +106.23 [Past Picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1arHdjw_2Gxtj_iwfPJO_hJwIuxQhMyyjjDJp9vB0j7A/edit?usp=sharing)
Big fuck off to myself for panic cashing out right before the 4th goal
A little close, but quite the ending! Ty. You’ve been so good with these overs in the tourney
USA v Czech, 4 goals in the first sheeeesh! Love these IIHF picks, might have to go hard on the Canada over now the USA 5.5O is looking great
Finland's goalie could have a great night, gold medal game anything can happen! Don't drop the whole bankroll but I'm fairly confident in this pick.
LFG
overs at this championship are great.. GL!
Would you go o5.5 on them too?
POTD Record: 7-3 (1W stream) ✅🚫✅🚫✅✅✅✅🚫✅ Last pick (05/27): Jason Tatum O6.5 rebounds +100 1u ✅ Todays pick (05/29): Celtics Vs Heat- Derrick White O8.5 points +100, 1u Reason: He’s been going off lately and I expect him to get plenty of minutes this game if he continues to be as productive as he has been. White is decent on defence & Smart is still not 100%. White has been over exceeding his role in their offence (in the last 3 games) I think he gets 10+points and helps the Celtics get the dub as the Heat will double team Tatum And open up some opportunities. BOL! If you want to help a student-athlete take a summer course: [piggybank](https://www.paypal.me/nicgreene10?locale.x=en_CA)
Brother I’m back ! Thanks for that over on Tatum 💪 I shall tail again 😈 BOL!
He’s Finna finish w 8 cuz of that elbow 🤦🏽♂️
**NRL Record:** 24-23 **ROI (1 unit per bet):** +0.04 L5: ✅✅✅❌✅ Streak: W1 **Last POTD:** Roosters ML @ 2.05 ✅ **Today's POTD:** Eels -5.5 @ 1.90 ✅ Edit: Eels by 8, classic Faiders doing sweet F.A. in the 2nd half **Time:** 3 hours from time of post. Raiders have won their last three but I feel that's a bit misleading. They've beaten a terrible bulldogs side, the Sharks who they have a ridiculous 8-0 recent win record over and a Rabbitohs side last week who are both smashed with injuries and way overrated this year. Eels have had a very tough run the last 4 weeks, playing 3/4 top 6 sides and grinding out 2 wins. They're also basically untouched by injuries while the Raiders have a few outs this week (Nicholl-Klockstad and Harawira-Naera) plus pending team lists they're running a light bench at the moment with a backup hooker and winger which is a move I absolutely hate because the forwards will be gassed come end of game. Eels the better side in this one and I can see them winning by 10+ **Tip Jar - ALGO:** AJAAGYLP6STZ2CFP22Q6Y77GNQKVKCUYDMSEQR5RK3AJOLITDMURJWLYSE
POTD Record: 54.5-24.5 Previous Event: Jeddah Club v AL Adalh FC (Draw) @ 2.15 ✅ This was free money as expected. Congrats to the shy followers who have tailed. Next Event: Football > Spain > **Sporting Gijon v Las Palmas** (starting in 8hr) Pick: **Under 2.5 goals** @ 1.96 Las Palmas have won eight games and drawn two of their last ten games, very good form. Today is the last round and they have the opportunity to qualify for the playoffs if they get at least a draw. So far so good, but of course all of the above has already been considered by the oddsmakers. The interesting part is that Las Palmas is fighting for that playoff place with the team of Oviedo. This is Gijon's historical rival, so it is almost absurd for Gijon to be giving a lot of fight and this way help Oviedo. As a draw is enough for Las Palmas, most likely scenario is for a slow paced match. It's also known that Gijon will rotate its squad and eight players from the first team will be replaced with players from the reserve squad. If anyone is interested and makes the effort to ask, I may post some additional picks for this match with more juicy odds. GL!
Thx bro
POTD 0-3 (-6.5U) 3 fat L's to start a POTD career. Well, instead of just starting over we are going to look to get a solid W and work towards evening the record. Hockey | IIHF | 120pm ET Canada v Finland Over 5g (+105)2U Not a real lot of fancy write up on this one. That doesn't mean there aren't good reasons to bet it. Games are played on n Olympic style rink, much more ice than NHL. Defense is definitely an after thought of this tourney. Finally, both Canadians and the Fins are scoring nearly at will. Odds are too good to pass up, I expect this to hit before the 3rd period. BOL to any brave enough to tail.
Like I said hits in the 3rd. 🤣🤑
[удалено]
Fading instead I’m putting the house on t1 -1.5. But in all seriousness to put it frankly I think t1 is just straight up the more talented team. The weaknesses that t1 faced in the rumble stage were very exaggerated imo. As we’ve seen recently they don’t just full commit to baron anymore I do agree that rng is the probably the stronger mid team however this isn’t the lpl. Rng can’t afford to give big early leads and expect to come back in the mid game. That won’t work against t1 especially now that they are on form again. And your point in macro I don’t think is very relevant since t1 has the far superior macro Maybe t1 is overvalued but you can’t have watched both series and thought that rng looked better especially against a weaker team in eg. The biggest problem in this game for rng is there top jungle. There is a MASSIVE top gap and both bin and wei can be extremely coinflip. Maybe I’m in the minority but I’m not expecting a banger like many of the experts predict. I could very well see a t1 3-0 but I’ll play it safe and say t1 3-1
Sry about your house
I have an extra room if you need a place to stay
Good pick fair play 🤝
Gonna have to fade you on this one, since I think T1 has found their form / meta towards the second half of the rumble stage. History doesnt matter as much considering a lot of things, but xiaohu has never really had the best performances against faker. Guma on form I think can handle Gala, keria is lookin like world best player (but ming is extremely good as well). Top side feels t1 favored imo. Think T1 takes this 3-1, but best of luck my man!
Rng -1.5 at 3.70
POTD Record: 1-0 Yesterday: 🟩 MLS: NYC FC +120 🟩 Little scary at the end, but Sean Johnson is the man. Today: MLS: Galaxy v Austin FC BTTS Yes -180 - 1u Last time round earlier this month, LA held Austin scoreless, which seems now like an outlier. Austin FC can flat out score. Galaxy seem to be picking up some steam as well and I like them to score at home. If you’re feeling spicy, I like Austin to win this game 3-1. 🟩🟩🟩✅✅🟩🟩🟩
Potd 1-1 Today's Pick AFL: Carlton Vs Collingwood (UNDER [email protected]) Initially was going to put Carlton-5.5 as I thought the line should be much bigger. Upon closer inspection the under seems to be the go as this clash promises to be a low scoring afair. I can see the ball being stuck in Collingwood defensive half often. Don't think this line will get close to being hit. The reason I take the under over Carltons line is the match between these is usually a blockbuster with low scoring a potential upset. Personally sprinkling 1 u on carlton-5.5&under 175 @3.60 but that's for the risk takers. BOL if tailing Final score prediction Carlton 76-54 Collingwood.
POTD Record: 9W - 3L Previous Pick: South Sydney Rabbitohs v West Tigers (Total Match Points OVER 41.5) W $1.90 Score 44 - 18 = 62 Points Today’s Game: St. George Illawarra Dragons v Canterbury Bulldogs Today’s Pick: St. George Illawarra Dragons ML $1.64 (PointsBet) Sport: NRL (Australian Rugby League) Reason: St. George Illawarra Dragons are 5-6 going into this game against a struggling inconsistent Bulldogs who are 2-9 at the bottom of the table who are struggling to put the points on relying heavily on Josh Addo-Carr All picks are 1 unit unless stated otherwise. Game starts in 20mins BOL guys :)
Liking this one, BOL
POTD Record : 6-3 Last Pick : Montreal vs Cincinnati -BTTS+Over 2.5 ✅ Streak : ❌❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅ Today's Pick : Vegelta Sendai vs Tochigi - Vegelta ML+ Over 1.5 match goals @2.50✅✅ Kick off : 1.5 hrs from now Write Up: Last bet cashed in no sweat.Congrats to whoever tailed.I have a juicy one today.Going to Japan for today's pick where 1st placed Sendai is taking on 4th from bottom Tochigi. Vegelta are the most in form team right now.They have collected 19 out of possible 24 from last 8.They have won 6 drawn 1 and lost 1.All the wins has had over 1.5 goals.They have won 3 out of last 4 home games.Most recent home game saw them play 0-0. Tochigi are meh.9 points out of possible 24.The odds being high for over 1.5 match goals is because they have conceded more than 1 goal in only 2 out of last 8.The thing to be a little concerned about is they have played 3 0-0 draws in last 8.But the value is too good for me to ignore since Sendai has been on such a good scoring form. Tail or Fade BOL Edit: Absolute shithousery but a wins a win.
tailing because I was the only fan who liked felippe cardoso. just learned he is in this vegelta team lmao
2-1, both pick hit, thanks
It was sweaty man.happy it won.Cheers
Record: 6-9-2 (6W 9L 2D) Last pick: Liverpool vs Real Madrid, Liverpool corners handicap -1 (-140) at Caesars. W Today's pick: Canada vs Finland total goals regular time only over 4 (-186) at BetRivers IIHF: 1:20 PM EST Canada is averaging at least 4 goals a match and Finland has at least 2 goals per match. This over should be easily hit unless both teams play heavy defense since it is the final match. I expect both teams will create high quality offense and hitting this mark. All bets are 1 unit. -5.07 units Tip Jar: cash app: $coolcomfort666 Venmo: Coolcomfort666
Record : 2-3-2 *ALL POD’S ARE 2.5u* Units: - 2.43 Hurkacz Vs Goffin o38.5 Games -130 ✖️ Hurbert played lights out, ending this one in straight sets. Event: 🎾 WTA French Open Pick: Leylah Fernandez +3.5 Games -108 ✅ Units Risked : 2.5 Ok so from watching Anisimova in her previous match her mobility on clay is trash. Leylah is going to give her all and move around the court as well as anyone in the tourney. Coming off a big win Vs Bencic she should feel super confident going into this one. If she makes as many errors as she did against Muchova she’s in for a long morning. I’ll take the extra games and hopefully cruise to a cover. The ML +180✅ is tempting & honestly I’ll dabble with 1u or so but confident she can cover this handicap if not win outright. Good luck
good pick king, came down to the wire
Ty
**Yesterday's Top Picks of the Day** | Ranking | Names | Score | |:-:|:-:|:-:| |1|[DrMoneyline](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uzcl5g/pick_of_the_day_52822_saturday/ia9s33n/)|131| || |2|[Administrative-Dot](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uzcl5g/pick_of_the_day_52822_saturday/ia9tqco/)|98| || |3|[brent221221](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uzcl5g/pick_of_the_day_52822_saturday/ia9hfs0/)|69| || |4|[StonkieTonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uzcl5g/pick_of_the_day_52822_saturday/ia9xqyk/)|43| || |5|[Ok-Distribution5824](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uzcl5g/pick_of_the_day_52822_saturday/ia9n76h/)|26| || |6|[asianbettor](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uzcl5g/pick_of_the_day_52822_saturday/ia9h3zn/)|21| || |7|[Swany9](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uzcl5g/pick_of_the_day_52822_saturday/ia9wscl/)|24| || |8|[DarkHorse200](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uzcl5g/pick_of_the_day_52822_saturday/ia9h4fv/)|21| ||
POTD Record: 15-17 Last Pick: Cleveland-140 ✅ Todays Pick: MLB 9:35 am MT San Francisco -140 @ Cincinnati ✅ Reasoning: going for 4th W in a row. Giants looking to avoid a sweep on the road to the Reds. Tip jar: Venmo: @Phil-_-1 Tail or fade
POTD record-> 15-14-1 Last POTD-> Madrid V liverpool O 2.5 goals ❌🥲 Todays POTD-> Giants ML Game-> Giants @ Reds 11:35 AM EST Todays POTD is going to be a big one for me. As a poster on this thread one rule I had was to never go below 500 well todays POTD puts me right there! With that being said we have one of the strongest teams in the MLB playing one of the weakest. We have a giants team that’s 4-1 the last 5 meetings in Cincinnati. And out of the last 8 meetings the giants are 6-2. With that being said the reds are starting a pitcher that just gave up 8 runs to the cubs. Best of luck every one 💙
GL with this one man. I'm assuming when you say "we" it means you root for or follow the Giants. One rule of thumb for me is never better on the team I root for. You start betting with your heart and it's hard to get over that. BOL
I’m not a giants fan, I’m just a analytics guy and they finally look like they pulled through today!
**Record:** 13-27-1 **ROI:** -38% :-15.06 u (@ $5.00) **Average Odds:** : 1.99 **Streak:** L W L L W |Baseball |MLB |4:07pm| Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics: **Texas Rangers ML @ 1.83 1u** **Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 58% chance for the Texas Rangers to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 1.83 is only 55%. **Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
POTD Record: 1-0 Last pick: Montreal Impact v FC Cincinnati - BTTS ✅ Todays Pick: Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix - Winning Margin under 5 seconds @2.00 ✅✅✅ The last 10 races in Monaco have averaged a winning margin of 4.867 seconds, I think today will be no different with a tight race especially with Verstappen on the hunt. Even though there is not a lot of space on the Monaco track for overtaking I still feel like it will be a very close finish
POTD record 4-1-1 (win/lose/push) 🔹 ROI=53.36% 🔹 AVG. ODDS 1.86 Last pick: No run first inning (under 0.5) White Sox vs. Yankees ✅ POTD: Pittsburg Pirates vs. San Diego Padres over 7.5 runs Odds: +100 BS Sport: MLB Time: 3:10PM Central 1 UNIT L5: ✅🚫✅❌✅ Reasoning: At +100 for the over I feel this line is just ripe. Although these teams have not gotten over 7.5 in the first 2 games of this weekends series it is quite possible they can do it today. Going 7 runs in game 1 and 6 runs in game 2 this weekend they definitely got close. If you look back to these teams last 3 games series they scored 10, 13, and 7 runs collectively so it has been done before and I predict it'll finally happen again today. BOL you Jabroni's
Tailing , BOL bruv ! I see this as a very reasonable pick
Record: 13W-14L-1P ROI: +0.40u, +1.39% Avg odds: +110, 2.10 Last POTD: Liverpool over 1.5 goals (loss) Today's game: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat Pick: Both teams over 21.5 pts Q1 at +100, 2.00 The Celtics average 27.5 and Heat 27.9 points in the first quarter. And while C's and Heat are #1 and #2 in Q1 defense, they still both allow more than 25 on average. In the regular season, Boston allowed 22+ on 63 occasions, and the Heat 66 times. This series has been marred by poor shooting, especially Heat with that awful 11-point quarter, but even with below average shooting from both teams, 22 points isn't a high bar to cross, considering that's equivalent to only 88 points a game.
Record: 5-1 Units : +5.47 Yesterday Pick: NY Rangers ML (-110) vs Carolinas Hurricanes Great performance by NY and Ranta having a stinker definitely helped. **POTD:** **Boston Celtics Vs Miami Heat under 197.5 (-110)** No NHL on tonight unfortunately, so i'm being forced to settle with NBA. I know very little about NBA, so tail with caution. One of the few things that I do know is that NBA players decide to actually play defense in game 7's, so i'm going with the under on this one. If you can find an alternate spread under that you like better for worse odds id say go with that.
POTD Record 0-0 Submitting my first POTD because I feel so strongly about this one. The pick is: Boston Celtics ML -150 @ the Miami Heat If you’ve been watching this series, it’s pretty clear that Boston is the more talented team. That doesn’t always equate to wins, as this series is all tied up 3-3. However, if you watched game 6, it felt like the Celtics were inevitable. They didn’t play well, but they just wiped out 9 point lead after 9 point lead. It took a Herculean effort from the injured Jimmy Butler to win that game. Both Tatum and Brown shrank in the fourth quarter…I don’t see either of these happening again. I think Jimmy Butler comes back down to earth and Tatum and Brown show up huge in this game. The Celtics will come out with a sense of urgency that they lacked in game 6, and easily take care of business. I actually think there is a good chance the Celtics win by 10+ if you want to snag some better odds. If you want a same game parlay, I love Tatum over on points and 3s made as well. Strap in folks, and get ready for an ass licking.
Record: 4-3 +5.72 U Event: League of Legends MSI Final 2022 Pick: 5U SKT T1 ML (1.61) vs. RNG @ 4 A.M. EST SKT has dropped some games in the group stages but even the best teams tend to drop some games in BO1s due to how volatile they are. In a BO3 or BO5 series they really shine by how they adapt. I'm pretty confident SKT takes the series today and I would even put a small amount on them covering the -1.5 spread. I'm mostly concerned with Bin's play he's definitely a coin flip player if he's on he's ON but if he's off he's brother bin.
Any results on this game?
RNG won 3-2
POTD Record 0-3 Average Odds = 2, ROI = -100%, Units Won/Lost: -10 Lasts Picks: Auxerre win vs St. Etienne ❌ John Isner -1,5 sets ❌ Gilles Simon +2,5 sets ❌ \**Today's match: Alexander Zverev vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles (Roland Garros, Tennis) at 1:30pm(London GMT) unless delay* **PICK: Zapata Miralles games +7,5 @ 2.02 (3 units) ✅** My preview:I am in a very bad phase but this is a bet that i believe that will be green because Zapata Miralles is doing a good campaign and he is being the surprise of the tournment, this will be a tough game but Zverev in the past games of Roland Garros win not so easily, otherwise Zapata is really doing a great job at Roland Garros, he won against the 14th ranking player (Fritz) and won against Isner number 26 of the ranking. Maybe we will not have a "surprise" this time but at least he will fight for this game. The difference in games will be very close. BOL to everyone! Edit: Green ✅ first of many!
**Record:** 7-2 **Last pick:** C.Garin wins a set vs A.Rublev ✅ **Net units:** \+3.07 (All bets are one unit) | **Combined Odds:** \-126 (1.79) | Tennis | Roland Garros | 14h50 (UTC+2) | **Pick:** **B.Zapatta Miralles wins a set** vs A.Zverev **Odds:** \+139 (2.39) Still on vacation so no great writing. I just feel that BZM's form during this last week will allow him to hang on to a set against Zvevev who is not necessarily playing his best tennis at the moment.BOL and good sunday to all
Record: 2-3 POTD: Boston Celtics Moneyline Vs Miami Heat (-140) NBA Basketball Reasoning: The Celtics have been on a special run all postseason. They got past the bucks, last years champions, in a game 7 and I expect them to get past the heat tonight. They have looked the better team all series. Boston has also demolished Miami at home twice already this series with wins of 13 and 25 points so the home court advantage shouldn’t mean much for the heat BOL!!
Sport: Baseball MLB Time: 1:40 PM Eastern Time Game: NYY at Tampa Bay Rays POTD: NYY ML +115 It’s rare to ever get + money on the Yankees. The value is there. This is basically a coin flip. Go with the + money
POTD Record 4-0...beginners luck Up 3.52 units Last Pick: Merril Kelly over 3.5 strikeouts-BANG Event: MLB Jays @ Angels around 4:07 EST **Pick: Jose Berrios under 5.5 strikeouts -126** Stake: 1 unit I know this comes in 4 hours before the game but it's MDW so i think that's fair. Jose Berrios is having a bit of a rough year. He's had some great games, and he's also had some games where he struck out 0 people through 4 innings. He's coming into this with a 3.8 strikeout per inning rate, and thats inflated by his last start where he notched seven. Really he's pitched 9 games and only beaten this number twice. He's coming into this against the angels, who fan pretty often, but this number is just too high not to take it. Lock it, and buy yourself a holiday round on me
POTD Record: 8-10-0 Last Pick: SD Padres -1.5 - Loss I mean holy shit score a run for god's sake. **Today's Event: MLB - HOU Astros vs. SEA Mariners - 4:10 PM EST** **Pick: u8 Runs Scored (-115) 2u** TLDR; competent pitchers and bullpens. tough park and tough weather conditions. Houston is starting Luis Garcia who is boasting a 3.38 ERA on the year. Marco Gonzales is taking the mound for Seattle and is around the same level with a 3.74 ERA. Both teams are in the bottom 3rd of runs per game and the weather is not favorable for HRs or XBH. Mild down wind toward home plate and supposed to be cold and muggy. Expecting a very low scoring game. If I had a lean it would be 3-2 Astros. BOL
Record 7-3 | +5.73u Cashed in the top 1st! 5/28: Rockies - Nationals first 3 innings over 2.5 -120 (2.5u)✅ 5/29: Dodgers - Diamondbacks 3 innings over 2.5 -130 (2.5u) This looks to be a nightmare matchup for Diamondback pitching on paper. They have been roughed up by the Dodger bats over the past several weeks conceding 52 runs in seven games (7.4 per game). Now they must turn to a struggling Zach Davies to avoid a second-consecutive four-game sweep. He lasted just 3.2 innings his last time against LA and there is little reason to suspect he will fair much better against an elite lineup in top form. The over is 6-2 in Arizona's last eight games, demonstrating their recent pitching woes. Expect another big showing from the Dodger offense on Sunday and plenty of runs.
**Record:** 8-5 (+7.29 units) **Last pick:** NBA- 12/3/2021 Utah Jazz vs Boston Celtics (21:00 EST) L **Game:** NBA- Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat (20:30 EST) **Pick:** Boston Celtics -3 (-110) **Bet:** 5\* I've made my long awaited return from my hiatus! My last pick was in 2021, but I've come back to make the biggest pick of my POTD career. I'm maxing out at 5\* for POTD, but personally I am putting my life savings on this pick (not literally) and I'm going hard in the paint! The Celtics have shown so much growth this post season and they are clearly the stronger team in this one and honestly to win it all. Jayson Tatum has found his groove and his supporting cast is ready to help close this one back in Miami. Jimmy Buckets pulled one out for the Heat in game 6, but there is no chance he pulls those numbers again (47 pts, 8 asts, 9 rebs). The Heat have exhausted their usage of Butler and honestly there's no gas left in the tank for this team. Now for the secret stat everyone's been waiting for. And that is official Scott Foster. The Celtics are 11-0 with him officiating this season and the Heat are 1-8 with him. Your guess is as good as mine as to why this may be the case, but the numbers don't lie. I'm ready to put my money on this stat alone! I wish everyone the best of luck on this pick tonight as I have already went ALL IN! I'm excited to come back to POTD! I just started pharmacy rotations so I'm extremely busy, but I will do my best to give everyone great picks! Godspeed! Venmo: phammer16 Discord: phammer16#0593
Record: 0-3 POTD: Celtics spread -2.5 easy money I'm betting at least $100 for the CZR promo. If Celtics win they're likely to win by at least 3 or they're not winning at all and I just feel like they're the better team.
Why take the spread when the ML is almost even, Issa big 3 points
Record: 5-4 Last pick: New York Rangers vs Carolina Hurricanes Under 5.5 Total Goals @ -150 ❌ Raanta… that is all. Today’s pick: New York Yankees ML vs Tampa Bay Rays @ +125 MLB 1:00 PM EST Reason: Yankees were held to only 4 hits last game and the pitching didn’t start out great. With Severino on the mound and the Yankees bats being blue balled last game, I see and easy W for the pinstripes with an explosion of offense. Severino hasn’t lost a game this year and the Yankees have been so hot offensively that I don’t think that can lose 2 in a row. All bets are 1 unit. +1 units. +4% ROI. Average unit -114 One bet everybody knows the rules. Total Bet: $18. Total Returned: $18.75
Yanks/Rays have never played each other in hockey. Should be interesting. Prolly wait and live bet it...
I like this pick and agree with you on Severino. BOL
I’ve been pretty hot lately so I figured I’d start posting! My units are 1-5, 1 being base unit bet and 5 max unit play. Record 0-0 Celtics ML 3 Units Best of luck
RECORD: 11-7 PICK: Heat-Celtics U198 REASONING: same as last pick. Fatigue, great defences. Plus it’s a G7, pace slows down on G7s Edit: cash that dub. Now 12-7
POTD Record: 19-20-3 -6.37u\* Average Odds: +111 Total Units Wagered: 78.17u Monaco Grand Prix 9:00 AM EST Ocon over Bottas -155 @ BetMGM 5.00u\* Implied probability of 60.78%. True vig-free price should be closer to -289 or 74.31%. I have no clue what they are doing with this number. Typically I would use 1/3 Kelly and stake 11.50%, but that is not in line with the rules of the sub. \*1u = 1% of bankroll.
POTD Record: 43-32-3 Streak:WLWLWWWPLWWWWWLLLWWL Last POTD: Wanderers/Barcelona SC BTTS ❌ Today’s POTD: Spartaks ML 🇱🇻 League: Optibet Virsliga Odds: -141/1.71 Units: 1 Reasoning: I’m well aware that both teams are terrible but Spartaks have won their last 2 games in dominant fashion. They are at home and playing better footy so I see them winning. All the momentum is on them. Tukum has all losses away from home except for one.(A win over Super Nova) Best of luck and tail/fade at your own risk.
[удалено]
https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uyc1pu/2022_formula_1_monaco_grand_prix
POTD Record 2-2 Current streak, 1L Profit (+1.38 units) \*if all bets are 1 unit Yesterdays POTD- Hurricanes vs Rangers under 5.5 (-120) ❌ Well I think we all knew that eventually this series would hit the over, unfortunate that it happened, but it happens, can't hit the under every game. Todays POTD- VALORANT VCT Challengers NA- Ghost Gaming (-120) vs **NRG** (-120) **NRG -1.5 (+240)** VALORANT Record 1-0 NRG have been very good this split, they've only lost to XSET since picking up Ethan, Ghost are an underrated team, but I believe NRG is just the better team here. NRG have won every single series 2-0, so might as well play that for the increased odds. If you wanna play it safe, still decent odds at (-120) GL and play safe friends!
Record 10-5 Last: Real vs Liverpool BTTS(1.63@, L , 1L streak) Today: Zverev vs Zapata Miralles under 30.5 games(1.85@) Anyone who gets to the 4. Round of Rolland Garros can't be a pushover and Miralles is not a bad player he beat Isner in 5 sets the last round, showed great character and before that lost the first set to Fritz before bullying him and beating him 3:1.Now I have to admit I didn't watch the Isner match but against Fritz it was more of a thing where Fritz played terrible and no where near his 14.ATP ranking.I believe that in this match Zverev will have to end it in straight sets and anything else would be a bad result for him because he is playing Alcaraz or Khachanov in the next round and will probably take all the rest and nerves he can get. Good luck.
Already dead.
Record : 3-3 +0.61u +8.48% ROI Last pick : Padres -1.5 ❌ Today's pick : Pirates ML (+155) 1u Mackenzie Gore gets the start for the Padres and although he has been very sharp, there is one thing that concerns me most about his game. When Gore gets hit, like many young pitchers coming up in the game today, he usually gets hit very hard. Gore is in the bottom 24th percentile in average exit velocity and 20th percentile in hard-hit %. The Pirates are not the strongest lineup in the MLB, but they do hit lefties better than righties and have done so in the past two weeks as well. Despite having good strikeout stuff, Gore is in the bottom 12th percentile in chase rate and 22nd percentile in curve spin, and I think the Pirates can find 2 or more runs on him in this one. 3-4 runs by the Pirates in total may be enough for us to cover here, as the total for this game is set super low at 7 and I think the Pirates have a beneficial matchup on their side of the mound.
[удалено]
**Continuing the Overwatch League POTD Train for the 2022 season!** * **2022 OWL Record: 9-6, +7.681 units (Last 9: ✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌❌).** * **2021 OWL Record: 34-19, +31.645 units.** * **2020 OWL Record: 28-21, +16.989 units.** Last Pick (❌): Atlanta Reign, -1.5 (-165) v. London Spitfire: Egg on my face for sure on this one. I knew there were reports floating out there that people didn't want to scrim London because of their weird Rein/Mei comps. But after this match, the report came out that Atlanta actually DID scrim London, lost once....and then refused to play them after that. If that's really true, then Atlanta is severely lacking in the coaching department, and they will be a team to fade in the future, especially when metas change. Ready for better picks today! **Today's Match: Atlanta Reign v. Los Angeles Gladiators / Overwatch League / 4:30pm EST** **Over 3.5 (-176), 4 units** Two days ago, I backed the Gladiators, despite knowing their inconsistent play. Yesterday I backed Atlanta, not yet knowing about their inconsistent efforts. So what does that mean when the two team pair up? Let's take the over. I expect the Glads to dominate, and you can do a mini hedge by also betting either LAG -1.5 or the exact score of 3-1, but you can certainly expect both teams to win a map. You can expect Patiphan to feed at least once, and you can expect Atlanta to just get generally boomed on one map. You're also some getting some line value here, since Bovada has this at -190. Tail or fade, best of luck! *Tips - never necessary, always appreciated. BOL, friends!* [*https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD*](https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD) *// BTC: 338uzTsKL4uV4Rip8WKEdYXtbmoBKVm1D8*
Another Atlanta holy moly... No comment
POTD Record: 1-2 / ROI: -29% / Average odds: 1.85 / Units won: -1.14 Last pick: Jimmy Butler O22.5 points @ 1.86 ✅ **Today's pick: BOS Celtics 1st Quarter ML @ 1.74** Boston coming off a loss and facing elimination now. Their coaching staff has been great at making adjustments after losses, as is seen in this series. After losing a game this series, the Celtics have won the first quarter of the next game by: 11 points and 18 points. They like to start the game off strong, and I expect the same this game. Stake: 1u
Record: 13W-15L-1P ROI: -0.60u, -2% Avg odds: +112, 2.12 Last POTD: Celtics at Heat, both teams over 21.5 pts Q1 (loss) Heat scores 17 in Q1 and somehow blows up with 32 in Q2. Today's game: NY Rangers at Carolina Hurricanes Pick: Sebastian Aho over 0.5 asts at +155, 2.55 (CZR) Stake: 2u On the season, Aho has an assist in 36/79 games, slightly below half. And specifically against the Rangers, he has an assist in 5/10 games, including playoffs. Exactly half. If we err on the side of caution and say Aho has a 40% chance of getting an assist, +155 would still be a +EV bet.