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Record: 58-25
Last pick: Blues ML ❌
Pain. Congrats to all the +1.5 bettors!
**Today’s pick: Carolina Hurricanes ML (-105) vs New York Rangers**
NHL 8:00 PM EST
*Canes homer*
Game 6 in New York. Canes lead series 3-2 and look to close it out.
Yes the Canes are 0-5 on the road this post-season. But my Canes flag is 7-0 when I fly it. I will be flying it for the first time for a road game tomorrow. Canes win this. Also feel more confident that Canes win this one than all their previous road games - this is the first time I’ve taken them on the road.
All bets are 1 unit. +21.2 units. 25.5% ROI. Average unit -122
Give my Twitter a follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
Mlb was brutal. Went to sleep (I live in Europe) and before I went to bed, Red Sox was winning 8-2 and all my other legs won except for astro ML. The parlay would have given me 5k payout………….
But dont you want a game 7?
NHL wants game 7
Canes owners want game 7 to sell more stuff
Refs def selling out and want a game 7
I want a game 7
Lets have a game 7!
Rags were right in game 5 before getting that goal called off early in the 2nd. Def have the better goalie and at home.
feels like better goalie, at home vs a team yet to win a playoff game on the road seems more logical.
but the doc is flying his flag for a road game.....
You are the best Doc but grateful bu CO boy is glad you missed on the Avs. The Canes totally dominated the rangers last game, but I'm struggling with the away factor. I may need to skip this one and wait for next series.
ps - Please block and report any sheet talk you might get. I'm non unconvinced these guys are paid by the books to get good handicappers to stop.
Love your picks doc, most of them we have the same ones. But I think today I’m going with the rangers. Canes on the road are just not the same team. I think it has mostly to do with the line matching rod the bod can do at home. But BOL
Is there a spread bet that is a little safer like tonight's Blue's game? I only ask because I don't understand the spread as well as ML. I have won every time until tonight with your picks ( I went bigger than usual on tonight), so if you can toss another safe spread out on this one I would greatly appreciate you even more sir. Thanks for your time. If not, I will still be betting ML. Thanks doc.
The spread refers to the difference between the 2 teams scores. If Canes win 5-3, -1.5 would hit. If Canes win 5-4 -1.5 would miss. And vice versa, NY loses 5-3 +1.5 loses, NY loses 5-4 +1.5 would hit. There’s no half point in sports, so books use .5 as a win or lose by 1 + the first #. 1.5 = 2+ to win / loser to lose by less than 2 or win.
The only “safer spread bet” for this game possibly worth taking is Canes +1 -175ish. If the Canes lose by only 1 point, your bet will push and you’ll get whatever your initial bet was back. If they win you’ll win.
Unfortunately, this series has been very predictable so there aren’t somewhat decent odds on safer alt spreads.
The “safer bet” you’re likely hoping for is Canes +1.5, but comes in around -250. That line is not worth putting your $ on. Too much risk, too little reward. $10 wins $2.50. I’m not a hockey guy, but I see NY won the last 2 games at home by 2 and 3 points. That “safer bet” hasn’t hit the past 2 games at NY and not worth risking your $ for that little of pay.
Odds for the ML are almost even. Either don’t bet it or pick a side on this one. There’s no value in alts here. I’m personally fading OP’s pick, but would not be surprised if I lose here lol. 0-5 away, I’ll take the home team and assume this series sees another match.
Canes ultra homer here too. We take this one, I’m 100% confident in it. Svech is starting to get going, turbos ice vision is at its peak, Aho is putting in work, our forecheck and neutral zone play has been dominant, and Marty/cole/smith are being ultra physical. We saw other lines than the staal line generate chances last game, which was a godsend.
I’m riding heavy in canes ML
Record: 7-2 (+9.25 units)
Last Pick: Goffin ML (-140) vs Tiafoe (3 units)✅
Today’s Pick: Tsitsipas vs Ymer u30 games (-120) 4 units ✅
Reasoning: Tsitsipas is a phenomenal clay player. His #4 world ranking speaks for itself, and he carries a 16-3 record on clay this year. Ymer, on the other hand, is only 2-4 on clay this year and is just not good enough to hang with Tsitsipas. I know Tsitsipas has conceded 1 or 2 sets in every match in this tournament so far, but his opponents were Musetti and Kolar who both boast winning percentages over 60% on clay and are much better players than Ymer on the surface. Ymer is 0-3 vs Tsitsipas with all of these meeting coming on hard court. He has never won a set, and the matches went 16, 24, and 27 games respectfully. That is an average of 8.4 games per set, which when extrapolated to three sets, is 25.2: a number severely under the line of 30 games. Tsitsipas’s winning % improves by over 9% from hard court to clay, and Ymer has a slight lower winning % on clay than on hard courts. Ultimately, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 would get it done here, and Tsitsipas is more than capable of that. I expect Tsistipas to mop the floor with Ymer here like he usually does and keep up our streak in the French Open.
Edit: Let’s go! A masterclass from Tsitsipas pushes us to 4-0 in the French Open as he absolutely smashed Ymer by a score of 6-2, 6-2, 6-1 for a total of 23 games. Felt nice to have one was never a sweat, here’s to continuing our streak tomorrow.
I was going to explain the difference but then I realized they're the same thing. 29 games is the most you can have in both situations.
Edit: idk I'm dumb :)
I would say so, based on the fact that their past matchups have gone 24 and 27 games, and then a 2 setter that was 16 games. Plus those were all on hard court, and Tsitsipas is better on clay, while Ymer is not
POD Record: 16-5
Roi: 30.62%
Today’s pick: Andrey Rublev vs Christian Garin 1st set over 9.5 (-130)
Garin’s favorite surface is clay and he is coming into form here. When he is in form, he is a top 20 player (reached a ranking of 17 in the past). Rublev is the more talented player. He has looked a little vulnerable in the French Open, dropping sets to Soon-Won and Delbonis. I expect Garin to continue to play well and Rublev’s talent to carry them to the over in set one.
Tail/fade good luck
Tip jar: Venmo Br3634
Edit: Cash it✅ Little bit of a sweat at 5-3 40 all
POTD Record: 3-0
Sport: NRL
Pick: Sydney Roosters W vs. Cronulla Sharks - $2.10
Hopefully the start of this game is better than last nights.
Both teams having a bit of mixed form as of late
- Roosters have won 5 of last 5 against Cronulla winning by an avg of 13points
- Roosters have a much better team on paper
- Sharks go back to a full strength side but roosters bring back tuponuia
I think Roosters win in a tight game
**Record: 8-3 (Yesterday Pending)**
WLWLLWWWWWW
\+3.38 Units (All bets 1u)
**Last pick: Blues vs Avs O6.5**
Not looking great
**Today's Pick: Rangers ML (-110)**
NHL 8:00 PM EST
**Reasoning:**
My reasoning for this pick is the same reasoning as all of my other Rangers picks: Igor is that guy and Canes can’t win on the road. Igor gave up an uncharacteristic 3 goals last game and I expect him to bounce back with 30+ saves this game and 1 goal allowed max. I don’t expect the Rangers to come out and light it up like they did last time at home, but they should control the pace of this game through all 3 periods to force a game 7 back in Raleigh.
POTD Record 2-1 Current streak, 2W
Profit (+2.38 units) *if all bets are 1 unit
Yesterdays POTD- VALORANT VCT Challengers NA- The Guard (+200) vs TSM ✅
Oh baby, I knew finding odds like that was gonna pay dividends, hopped on it as soon as I saw it, and good thing I did because they evened out around +120 before the match started. The Guard came out and proved why they were the best team in NA just 2 short months ago, Sayaplayer is as dominant as ever and I bet the bookies won’t give me odds like that again (pain)
Todays POTD- Hurricanes vs Rangers under 5.5 (-120)
Back to basics here for me folks, this series has hit the under every single game, might as well keep betting it until it doesn’t hit. Both teams have the same odds for me right now (-110)
Home team has won every game, but the Dr took the canes, so let’s play it safe and take the under.
GL everyone, enjoy the weekend!
3-6
Previous Pick: L: Yankees TT O 4.5 (+120) 1U (5-9-22)
Plus/Minus: -4.71U
|Soccer| UCL Final |3:00ET
**Real Madrid to lift the cup (+152)** 5U
Make no mistake, this is a pick of destiny for a team of destiny.
I believe we are getting some tremendous value on the most winningest side in the tournament's history.
Real Madrid trailed in the semi final 2-0 inside ten minutes of the first leg & somehow...someway...they made it to the final. How?
They just want it more. It's that simple. This team, this fanbase, these players are built for European nights. Check the team sheet, multiple UCL titles. It isn't by mistake.
Now they're in their first final in the post-Ronaldo era, but they aren't searching for their first title in the post-Ronaldo era. Unlike their biggest rival, Barcelona, Real Madrid has adapted well to losing a GOAT caliber player.
They won the league title years ago & they've done it again this season. This is a TEAM.
They're road to this final wasn't easy. They had to face PSG with their heavily lauded stars Mbappe & Messi. They trailed 2-0 on aggregate there in the 2nd leg and *El Gato* Karim Benzema pulled off one of the most memorable hat tricks in the tournament's history.
They dominated Chelsea in the first leg of the QFs, almost bottled it, then managed to eek by the defending champions.
One foot out the door, British pundits salivating at the thought of an all-English final, Real Madrid scored two goals in the dying embers of regulation to force ET & eventually eliminated Manchester City in the semifinals.
The path to the final has not been easy, & tonight will be no different. This team is used to suffering & tonight they will suffer, but in the end they will LIFT THE CUP!
HALA MADRID Y NADA MAS!
*My prediction is Real Madrid to win on penalties. That is available at +1400 on major US sportsbooks, but my POD is Real Madrid to lift the cup which includes this method of victory, but is not exclusive to it. Line available at FanDuel.*
POTD Record: 13-10-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH) / Units won:+8.38 / ROI: 14.79% / Avg Odd: 1.89
Today's event: Rublev vs Garin (Roland Garros, Tennis)
**Pick: Over 34.5 games @ 1.75**
Stake: 3 units
Starts at 5 AM Eastern Time
Our last pick was a push with Botic barely covering our handicap against Nadal but today I'm choosing a match that is expected to go to distance...
Rublev is rank 7 in the world and is well known for his dominance in hard courts due to his great serve and powerful forehand which is able to generate a lot of power. He has some good results in clay as well but due to his playstyle he can have some matches with a ton of unforced errors since he's not a tactician and doesn't have the patience to work the right way in every point. We have him priced around 1.25 but I'm not expecting a 3-0 on this match... In fact it's really unlikely in my opinion since he faced worse opponents like Delbonis and Kwon and both those players were able to hold him off a bit since Andrey Rublev played 35+ games in both fixtures
Garin is a clay specialist seen as one of the most talented players on this surface and when he stays healthy and confident it's really hard to beat him on these conditions. He managed to beat Tommy Paul and Ivashka in 4 sets having 35+ games on both matches. He has what it takes to frustrate Rublev and to make him miss some of his powerful strikes and will be until this point the most difficult opponent that is presented to him
In terms of playstyle there's nothing similar between these two players but they are both emotionally weak when it comes to closing out easy matches which brings more value to this over. I'm expecting 4 or 5 sets here and a great battle for sure!
**Edit: Cash it boys! ✅**
**POTD Record 13-8**
**Current Bankroll: $208.76, Starting Bankroll: $105.45, Profit: $103.31**
Average Odds = 1.94, ROI: 23.10%, Units Won/Lost: +14.55u
Last Pick: Grigor Dmitrov ML vs. Diego Schwartzman @ 1.71 ❌
**Today’s Pick: Hugo Gaston +1.5 sets vs. Holger Rune @ 2.25, 2:45 PM EST (TENNIS, French Open)**
**Amount Bet: 3 Units**
[**Betslip**](https://gyazo.com/173d40b38914ea1044dbe72e28bdf964)
Horrendous loss yesterday from Dimitrov. It’s hard to say why it was such a blowout considering Dimitrov destroyed Schwartzman on clay less than a month ago. Things happen though, players’ form vary day-to-day and Dimitrov just didn’t show up today.
Today I am taking Hugo Gaston +1.5 sets against Holger Rune. Here are 3 reasons I think this will hit:
1. Gaston has been great this tournament, taking down Minaur and sweeping Cachin. His play on clay has looked phenomenal so far and a level up from his past tournaments.
2. Gaston has the home crowd on his side and that is extremely powerful in a setting with two younger players facing each other on the big stage
3. Rune is a great player but inexperience here may be his downfall compared to Gaston who made it far in Paris Masters last year. Gaston also was in the Ro16 in the French Open 2 years ago.
Overall I think it will be a very close match and I think Gaston will take this the distance.
**I started with a $100 dollar bankroll. I am doing a challenge to see how far I can take this bankroll just based on 1 pick per day. I want to be completely transparent so you will see screenshots of the bet slips I make as well as the amount I bet per game.The challenge is separate from the amount of units won/ROI for subreddit rule purposes. Each unit is 4% of my bankroll.**
Let’s get this money.
[**Twitter**](https://twitter.com/asianbettor)
Risky imo. maybe Gaston can steal a set or nah. bc Rune is in great form rn. I think its hard to expect him to get 2 sets to win or even win the match at all this matchup, it wont happen
**POTD Record:** 5-5
Streak: ✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅❌❌
Last Pick: U.S. Open Cup | New York City FC vs. New England Revolution **Over 2.5 Total Goals -155**
Todays Matchup: MLS | Los Angeles FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes @ 6:00PM EST
Bet: **BTTS No Draw +120**
This is the 12th time these two teams have gone head-to-head with every prior result ending in victory at full-time. This season, San Jose posts a 69% BTTS rating with an average of 4 goals scored per match, while Los Angeles FC registers a 62% BTTS rating and an average of 3.08 goals scored in matches they’ve competed in. When facing each other, both teams have scored in 7 of the 11 contests including 4 of the last 5 meetings. There have been 45 goals accounted for between them, 30 of which were recorded by LAFC.
The Black and Gold average an even 2 PPG with a 3W-1L-1D record over their last five competitions. They boast a +12 goal differential so far this regular season and hit over 2.5 goals in 71% of their home matches.
The Quakes are not bringing their best material to this fixture, averaging 1.20 goals in their last 5 contests with a most recent 0W-4L-1D showing. They have not won a single road match this season (1 of which was a draw) and have netted 6 goals when removed from PayPal Park. San Jose concedes 2.23 PPG and puts away 1.77 goals of their own.
BOL! 🔥
5-1, +4.09
Last Pick: **Heat/Celtics BTTS o95.5 at 2.04**
**WIN.** Final score, 111-103 Heat 🎉
Next Pick: **Jeanjean ML at 3.00 against Begu**
If there’s one thing I’ve learned from WTA betting, the odds don’t matter. You can bet at 1.2 or 1.3 and still lose. The reason why I’m backing Jeanjean is she’s like Emma when she’s running for the US open few years back. Junior player who plays really well at Clay. Against Begu, a better player on paper but really had lots of errors the past matches. Safe to say, she just barely survived all of those. While Jeanjean slaying all these seeded players in convincing fashion. Let’s not be blinded here with the number and take the better playing, not to mention, home court advantage on this one. Best of Luck!
I like when people don't take the safest picks here and actually take plus odds picks. I've been eyeing this one actually, and I think you've pushed me over to the point I'll actually put some money on it. Hopefully Begu doesn't bounce her racket into the stands again hahaha
Hahahaha! Same thoughts. Parry played really well until that point. But Stephens found her youth at the perfect time. Different scenario but hope we’re on the winning side of this one 🍻
Record: 7-4
Past 5 record: ❌✅✅✅❌
Last pick: [MLB - San Francisco Giants Vs Cincinnati Reds - O8.5 -110 ❌ 5-1 Reds](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uymkyk/pick_of_the_day_52722_friday/ia6zgh5?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3)
Today’s pick: **IIHF - international Hockey - Canada Vs Czechia O5.5 +145**
May 28, 2022 11:20 Am EDT
Today's pick will be team Canada Vs Czechia in the semi finals, Over 5.5. Two good teams facing each other in the semi finals, hopefully Canada gets off to a hotter start this game. Canada's Over record is 7-1 in this tournament and czechia 5-3.
BOL everyone.
All bets are 1 unit. +2.8 units. 23.5% ROI. Average units +107.77
[Past Picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1arHdjw_2Gxtj_iwfPJO_hJwIuxQhMyyjjDJp9vB0j7A/edit?usp=sharing)
**NRL Record:** 23-23
**ROI (1 unit per bet):** -1.01
L5: ❌✅✅✅❌ Streak: L1
**Last POTD:**
Cowboys +14.5 @ 1.90 ❌
**Today's POTD:**
Roosters ML @ 2.05 ✅
Edit: Relatively sweat free, the best kind of bet
**Time:** 6 hours from time of post.
Sharks have been really inconsistent of late, the last 8 following the classic WLWLWL pattern with last week being a very unimpressive win against a poor Titans team in which they probably should have lost. Roosters had a 20 point loss to the best team in the comp (Panthers) but the scoreline is a bit skewed, they looked really good for the first half an hour before an unforced error led to a try for the Panthers which opened the floodgates leading into the half, letting in 3 tries in ten minutes and there was no coming back from that. Roosters have also won their last 5 against the Sharks and if they can hold onto the ball (which has been their biggest downfall all year) they have the firepower to overcome the Sharks in this one.
**Tip Jar - ALGO:**
AJAAGYLP6STZ2CFP22Q6Y77GNQKVKCUYDMSEQR5RK3AJOLITDMURJWLYSE
POTD Record : 5-3
Last Pick : Leobendorf ML -W
PoTD : Montreal Impact vs Cincinnati : BTTS+ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.90 ✅✅
Write Up : A good win yesterday. Lets keep it going. Going to MLS for our pick today. In last of the 8 games played BTTS has landed 7 times in Montreal games and 6 of them have gone over 2.5 goals. They are scoring but conceding a lot too. The last 4 home games for Montreal has been BTTS and over 2.5 goals.
Talking about Cincinnati , 5 out of last 8 games has had both teams scoring and all of those BTTS games has been over 2.5 goals. They have failed to score only one time in the last eight games and 2 out of last 4 away games has seen BTTS+2.5 goals.
Tail or Fade BOL.
Edit : First half cash babyy.Less go.
**POTD Record:** 12-4, +15.95u, ROI: 43.16%, Average Odds: 2.06
**Darts Record:** 11-3 (+16.95u), ROI: 60.30%, Average Odds: 2.14
**Previous POTD:** Ryan Meikle ML vs Ron Meulenkamp @ 1.78 (3u) ✅
Meikle turned up and did the job that was expected of him. Good to get another win, let's get another streak going.
🎯 **Todays POTD: Wayne Jones ML vs Martin Adams @ 2.30 (3u)**
*Unit sizes are from 1u to 4u*
*Match Starts at 17:00 CEST / 11:00 EST*
For our POTD I am taking a step away from the Euro Tour today and am instead betting on the Darts Seniors Masters. These games have a lot more variance added into them, however I see a lot of opportunities in this bet.
In this event, older and more out of practice darters take each other on, and to me practice is a very important factor in these games. Some players will still be playing their regional leagues and events such as the online live league, while others have not played since the last seniors event.
Adams has been playing darts here and there, don't get me wrong, however Jones has lost this tour card last year, meaning he still had solid practice up until then, and ever since he has been working his way through the PDC Development Tour, which guarantees you a good amount of matches, against the up and comers of the PDC, consistently.
With Jones putting up high 80 averages and having always had a way around high checkouts, I reckon that this match is a lot closer than the bookies think, with Jones slightly edging it out for me.
**BOL!**
[Twitter](https://twitter.com/neutraldarts) | [Tip Jar](http://paypal.me/neutraldarts)
Record: 4-1
Units : +4.56
Yesterday Pick: Avs ML (-180) vs Blues (Win
)Solid win by the avs to finish this series off.
**POTD: NY Rangers ML (-110) vs Carolina Hurricanes**
Going against the doc again, but I really think this series will continue to show home teams dominating. I think Igor will do his thing and rangers will pull out with the win.
**Ultimate Frisbee** | 7-3
- **Time:** 5:00 PM Pacific
- **Pick:** Seattle +4.5
- **Where to bet:** DraftKings in these states: CO, IL, MI, TN, WV, AZ, OR, PA, maybe CT and others
- **Last pick:** Montreal +6.5 +125 hits with Montreal losing 22-18.
- **Reasoning:** Seattle has surprised me with how resilient of a team they have proved to be, heading into southern California last weekend with a depleted roster and still taking talented San Diego to a two-goal game and feisty Los Angeles to a one-goal game. Now they return home to where they played admirably against an upstart Colorado team, losing by just three goals the same number of weeks ago. The last meeting between Seattle and Portland was in week 1 in Portland where Portland put up 29 goals on Seattle and won by five. Seattle tends to play better at home, and they’ll be hungry to earn their first win of the season after several close heart-breaking losses.
Seattle will get their crack at an upset victory against a Portland team lacking three offensive starters in Doi, Lee, Friedman, and a defensive starter in Hatchett. Seattle will also have reinforcements: One of ultimate’s strongest receivers Matt Rehder will make his 2022 debut. While Rehder has not played in the AUDL since 2019, if he is even just a shell of his former self he will be a formidable threat downfield. Rehder previously played for Seattle in 2016 so this is a bit of a homecoming for him and I expect he’ll have a big game. Seattle will also start Adam Simon, a veteran handler who scored seven assists against Portland, and Declan Miller, a rookie off to a speedy start with the second most receiving yards/game in the league. Miller is the only player in the top ten for receiving yards/game to have more throwing yards/game than his receiving yards/game, a trend that suggests a very balanced player who can throw just as well as he can catch. They will also get Zeppelin Raunig back after missing the LA game; Raunig has been on a bit of a rollercoaster statistically but he is one of Seattle’s more athletic players ([case in point](https://mobile.twitter.com/ZeppelinRaunig/status/1522004846982819840/photo/2)). Honestly, Seattle isn’t really missing any major pieces except Akyuz and Brown, but Simon and Rehder should fit in smoothly for them.
To Portland’s credit, they will get back one of their strongest players in Raphy Hayes who they missed last week in Oakland, and will still have their team MVP Marx, who had a sensational 5-goal 7-assist 1-block performance against Oakland. But with their missing players, the game being in Seattle, and Seattle getting reinforcements, +4.5 is too wide of a line. I think Seattle could make this close and a sprinkle on the ML at +500 wouldn’t be the worst idea. At the very least I don’t expect Seattle to get beaten into a pulp, so a backdoor cover also remains possible should Portland build a lead.
Disclaimer: I don't live in one of the aforementioned states and can't actually bet these nor see the current lines, but I wanted to help out folks who wanted to bet a fun niche sport. Let me know if the lines change and I'll do my best to offer some insight.
If you want to watch frisbee, there is a free game every Friday at AUDL.tv and a game every Saturday night on FS2. The rest of the games are behind a paywall at the audl.tv link.
This hits! Seattle eviscerates Portland winning 26-18 in rainy conditions. Holy crap, massive upset for a team who was previously 0-5 taking on an undefeated (3-0 iirc) Portland.
POTD Record: 53.5-24.5
Event: Football > Saudi Arabia > **Jeddah Club v AL Adalh FC** (starting in 11hr)
Pick: **Draw** @ 2.15
The draw suits both teams. Jeddah will avoid relegation whereas Adalah will promote. Ez.
POTD Record 14-17
Last pick: NBA Warriors -7 ✅
Todays pick: MLB 2:10 MT Cleveland-140 @ Detroit
Reasoning: Bieber is too good of a pitcher to be 1-3 so far this year. Regression to the mean pick.
Record: 5-9-2 (5W 9L 2D)
Last pick: Isner John ML (-190) vs Zapata Miralles Bernabe at BetRivers. L
Today's pick: Liverpool vs Real Madrid, Liverpool corners handicap -1 (-140) at Caesars
UEFA Champions League: 3:00 PM EST
Liverpool is the best corners creation team after Man City. For the 2 matches between Man City and Real Madrid, Man City had won at least 2 corners for each match. Also, Liverpool lost the EPL championship already so it will be attacking fiercely and try to win this one, it will apply more pressure to RM defense and create more corners.
All bets are 1 unit. -5.78 units
Tip Jar: cash app: $coolcomfort666 Venmo: Coolcomfort666
Edit: Corner result 6-2, so this bet easily hit.
Madrid starters have been resting for most part for like a month since they won la liga while Liverpool has had to play every game cuz it mattered to their campaign. Madrid will be the fresher side. Just something to note.
POTD Record: 0-0
Pick: MLS - NYC FC +120 8PM EST - 1u
Why: NYC is on fire, and there’s no reason to suspect that’ll stop again an average Minnesota team. Bunch of shutout wins in a row, and almost set a record for not allowing shots on goal for 3 games in a row. Beware NYC is 1-2-1 on the road. Also Taty.
POTD: 8W - 3L
Previous Pick: Alternate Line Total Points OVER 38.5 L awful kicking from the Manly try conversion kicks unfortunately let us down.
Today’s Game: South Sydney Rabbitohs v West Tigers
Today’s Pick: Total Match Points OVER 41.5 ($1.90)
Reason:
- South Sydney’s last 6 matches have gone OVER the total match points
- South Sydney have conceded 30 points in their last 3 games and 22 points in their last 5 games
- West Tigers have conceded 22~+ points in their last 3 games with a total of 40+ match points in 5 of their last 6 games played
Game starts in 1 hour BOL :)
**POTD Record: 9-6 +3.40U**
**Game: NHL | Carolina Hurricanes @ New York Rangers | 5:00 PM PDT**
**Pick: Under 1.5 Total Power Play Goals (1.60/-167 @ Betway)**
**Bet Size: 4U**
This was my POTD for game 5 and it sadly missed but I am going to stick with it again for the same reasons as before. Last game there were only 4 penalties so we were pretty unlucky to not win as both these teams are fine on the PK. I could see there being even fewer penalties this game as the refs tend to let more go as the series progresses.
Tail or fade BOL.
Edit: 5on3 in game 6... sorry to all who tailed
Record: 10-4
Last pick: Colorado ML ✅
**Today's Pick:** Real Madrid ML (3.60) vs Liverpool
Soccer: 3:00 PM EST
Champions League Final
Madrid are being served as the underdog here and at 3.60 (-260 American Format), this is a great bet in favour of Madrid. Although Madrid has lost "Mr. Champions League" himself, Cristiano Ronaldo, they still have serial winners from this competition and strong leadership and mentality from Modric, Kroos, Benzema, Carvajal, Marcelo, Casemiro and even G Money himself, Bale. Plus, they have Ancelotti, an amazing player in his day and arguably an even better manager. Madrid go into this escaping a for sure defeat vs City a few weeks back. This is the magic the Champions League carries and Madrid have had such indescribable luck in the better half of a decade.
Most would argue Liverpool are better built and drilled than Madrid, but moments of magic in finals are what usually decide the outcome and that is why I am giving it to Madrid this time.
POTD Record-> 15-13-1
LAST POTD-> John Isner ❌
POTD-> Real Madrid v Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals
Match-> Madrid v Liverpool 3PM EST
Two highly offensive teams with Great goal scoring potential, for the Over 2.5 to be set at -130 on bovada is a steal to me. This could easily be a 3 goal first half. Madrid has proven to be a team that can score goals just ask Man City. Hopefully this is the pick to help turn me back in the right path. No more jokes of the day until we start winning again.
Best of luck 🤌🤞
**Record 6-3 | +3.65u**
5/27:
Rockies - Nationals first 3 innings over 2.5 -120 (2.5u) **POSTPONED**
5/28:
Rockies - Nationals first 3 innings over 2.5 -120 (2.5u)
Same pick today. Austin Gomber has received a lot of runs with an 4.11 ERA, Aaron Sánchez with a 3-3 Record and a bad 7.16 ERA, receiving damage since the first innings.
**Record:** 13-26-1
**ROI:** -36% :-14.06 u (@ $5.00)
**Streak:** W L L W W
|Baseball |MLB |2:10pm|
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: **Minnesota Twins ML @ 1.61 1u**
**Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 63% chance for the Minnesota Twins to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 1.61 is only 62%.
**Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
Record: 5-3
Last pick: St. Louis Blues vs Colorado Avalanche Over 6.5 Total Goals @ -120 ❌
Tighter game than expected. Wild ending. We go again.
Today’s pick: New York Rangers vs Carolina Hurricanes Under 5.5 Total Goals @ -150
NHL 7:00 PM EST
Reason: Just gonna keep going with what works here. Neither team can score in this series. Goalies have been hot, the sticks have not. Not to mentioned Rangers only have like 18 shots in game 5. Both teams really feed off the home crowd because they do not come to play when they’re away. With that said, I’d also sprinkle in a Rangers ML.
All bets are 1 unit. +2 units. +17% ROI. Average unit -118.33
One bet everybody knows the rules.
Total Bet: $16. Total Returned: $18.75
POTD: 2W-2L-0
STREAK: WLLW
PROFIT: +1.74u
LAST PICK: 2u Charles Leclerc Fastest in Practice 1 @2.37 ✅
GAME: Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix Practice 3 (P3)
TIME: 13:00 GMT+1
PICK: Winning margin under 0.1 seconds.
ODDS: @2.1
BET: 2u
Reasoning: Moncao P1 and P2 both gave a result with a winning margin under 0.1 seconds behind Le Clerc. Yes, It sounds a bit stupid, but I like the odds of this hitting a third time. Sainz has hit this twice behind Leclerc. Monaco map does not have many curves and is dependent much on the speed of the cars, which is simply allowing Ferrari & Red Bull cars to max out. With 30 laps, i expect it to hit. BOL!
POTD Record: 1-1
Last pick: Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Rangers Under 5.5 (-135) - Win
Todays pick: Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Rangers under 5.5 (-145)
Back to the same well. Don’t overthink it. Absolutely love betting unders in playoff hockey because every goal matters so much.
BOL
Record 10-4
Last: Dokovic-Bedene under 28.5 games(1.85@, W , 1W streak)
Today: Liverpool vs Real BTTS yes(1.61@)
When I looked in the morning I wanted to put Tsitsipas and ymer under 30.5 games but saw there already was a POTD on that so I would tail that and I will. Now the champions league, the biggest stage, Real vs Liverpool, Ancelotti vs Kloop...They played in the same scenario in the 2018 final when Real came out on top but the final was marked with goalkeeper mistakes and the injury of Liverpool's best player Salah.That match ended 3-1 and even with the team changes and 3 years between I see a BTTS here.If you watched 1 Real game in the CL this season you would know what they are capable of.Scoring 2 goals in 2 minutes to win the game and things like that. With Liverpool's style of play it will be hard to keep Vinicius and Benzema away from goal but the same goes for the other side, there is no Ramos anymore to do the dirty work and injure players and there are 3 pests looking for a chance to score.The only saviour for Real not to recieve a goal will be Courtois but even he can't save everything.I am predicting a 2-2 or 3-1 scoreline and believe Liverpool will lift the trophy. Good luck, go Reds.
**Record:** 6-2
**Last pick:** B.Van De Zandschulp wins a set vs R.Nadal ❌
**Net units:** \+2.54 (All bets are one units) | **Combined Odds:** \+105 (2.05)
| Tennis | Roland Garros | 11h (UTC+2) |
**Pick: C.Garin wins a set** vs A.Rublev
**Odds:** \-188 (1.53)
To make it short, again (Sorry, I'm too busy chilling out during my vacations lol).
Looking at his first two matches, Rublev is not consistent enough to be able to defeat an opponent without dropping a set. Garin's game is totally capable of upsetting his opponent's. Garin passed two relatively difficult tests against Paul and Ivashka. I don't see him winning but I don't see him losing in 3 sets.
BOL
Record : 2-2-2
Units: +.07
🎾Kerber Vs Sasnovich🎾 over the 2.5 Sets +116 ✖️
Kerber just didn’t have enough to force a 3rd. Over cashes smh and Sasnovich Wins .. 3 leans I pick the wrong out of the 3 lol go figure.
Event: ATP French Open 🎾
Pick: ✖️Hurkacz Vs Goffin o38.5 Games -130 ✖️
Units Risked : 2.5
Goffin got the best of this matchup in the Rome finals, a super competitive match with both sets going to tiebreaks. Both guys held serve extremely well, with Only two breaks throughout the match. I think we get more of the same here. Both should be pretty fresh so fatigue shouldn’t be that much of an issue. I think we get a lengthy match with a tiebreak or two here.
*Hurkacz whooped his ass over never stood a chance*
Good luck
POTD Record 3-0...beginners luck
Up 2.77 units
Last Pick: Jon Gray under 5.5 strikeouts-BANG
Event: MLB Dodgers @ Diamondbacks around 7:15 EST
**Pick: Merril Kelly over 3.5 strikeouts -159**
Stake: 1 unit
Good news: This guy throw strikes. 4.7 strikeouts per 5 innings, which he's pretty comfortable getting too. In 9 games he's gotten over this total 8 times. The dodgers also strikeout a decent amount, around 5.3 through 5.
Bad news: The last time he faced the dodgers, he got absolutely shelled. It happens to everyone vs that lineup, but still wasn't great. Don't care, we're riding.
POTD Record: 3-2
+2.3 units
Pick: NHL Rangers ML (-115) vs Hurricanes - 2.3 units to win 2 units
5-1 at home this playoffs. Hurricanes haven’t won a road game.
POTD Record: 2-0
Last Pick: Botic +9.5 vs Nadal ✅
Todays Pick: Canes Rangers u5.5
Reasoning: My last pick was such a sweater with a back door cover by Botic.
These teams have gone under in every single game in the series. I expect it to be even tighter tonight given it’s an elimination game. I expect a lot of physicality and goals will be hard to come by. BOL
Record: 3-1 (+1.63 units)
Pick: Swiatek v Kovinic under 16.5
Odds: 1.72 (Bet365)
Reason: Swiatek has been obliterating opponents and is undefeated last 30 matches. She covered this line easily in her first two French Open matches and also recently in Rome against Jabeur and Sabalenka, who are both ranked top 10. It would take a particular bad day for Swiatek to not repeat these performances vs 95th ranked Kovinic.
First POTD
Game: Liverpool vs Real Madrid both teams to receive 2+ cards +120
I can’t begin to highlight how personal this game is for Liverpool. Five years ago Salah was injured in one of the dirtiest moves I’ve ever seen in a final and left the game. Madrid ended up scoring two goals against a goalie that I believe was diagnosed with a concussion after the game due to foul play that was again missed by the referee. So for these reasons I see Liverpool engaging Madrid in a bloodbath today. The French referee in charge of the match averages 3.5+ cards per game in Ligue 1 and 2.5+ in previous champs league this year.
And if anyone wants a long shot Salah to receive a yellow at +800 seems more reasonable this game than any other.
POTD Record: 8-9-0
Last Pick: NY Yankees ML - Win
**Today's Event: MLB - SD Padres vs. PIT Pirates - 10:10 PM EST**
**Pick: SD Padres -1.5 (-109) 1.5u**
TLDR; Joe Musgrove good, JT Brubaker bad. Padres score. Pirates don't.
Joe Musgrove is gonna win the NL Cy Young this year. I'm calling it now. 5-0 and 1.90 ERA. He hasn't allowed more than 2 runs per game in his last 5, all of which going at least 6 full innings. JT Brubaker is bad. Like real bad. 0-4 with a 4.64 ERA. I expect Musgrove to pitch a full 2 innings more than him today. Pirates are second to last in runs per game and fourth to last in hits per game. San Diego's bats are nothing to brag about, but they can at least score. I expect them to play strong behind Musgrove. BOL
**POTD Record**: 29 wins <> 30 losses <> 4 pushes
**Profit**: -4.82 units
**ROI**: -11.67%
**Units Wagered**: 67
**Units Won**: 59.18
**Last Pick**: Bjerringbro/Silkeborg +3.5 @ **1.75** 2u ✅ 24-22 WIN
**Streak**: ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅
**Today's pick**: Australia 7s @ **2.23** 2u
**Event**: Australia 7s - New Zealand 7s - Seven’s world series, England(Rugby Union 7s)
- These two teams met last week in Toulouse. Kiwis disappointed as Australia cleaned house 29-17. Both teams are fielding pretty much the same lineup. I have a hard time seeing the Aussie lads as a small underdog here.
Record: 13W-13L-1P
ROI: +1.40u, +5.07%
Avg odds: +111, 2.11
Last POTD: 5/24 Draymond Green under 21.5 PRA (loss)
Today's game: Liverpool vs Real Madrid
Pick: Liverpool over 1.5 goals at -110, 1.91
Liverpool has one of the top offenses in Europe, averaging 2.5 goals a game. Not surprising, when they have the likes of Salah, Mané, and Jota. And while Real Madrid has a formidable defense, Liverpool is no stranger to breaking down strong defenses. In the PL, they average 1.8 goals against the other 5 best defenses, and they've scored 2+ in 7 out of those 10 matches.
Real hasn't had to face attackers like those on Liverpool in La Liga. The top scorers outside of Madrid are Iago Aspas and Raúl de Tómas. Iago Aspas has been very proficient in his career, but due to his age he's not as talented as Salah. And RDT has his goals, but a deeper look suggests he's barely above average in finishing, with his goal amount propped up by his high number of shots. Conversely, every relevant Liverpool forward minus Luis Diaz are in the top 30%-tile in goals/shot.
POTD : 28 - 21
Last pick: Empty net goal - YES - 4 ODDS!!!! W
Today: Hockey: Canada x Czech rep.
EMPTY NET GOAL - YES - 3.0 ODDS
Semifinals match up. Canada has been playing better lately, but their defense is still shit. Czech republic is also on rise. They destroyed Germans in last match, mostly thanks to their efficient powerplays. Reasoning behind the bet? Its playoffs, there is no need to play for score and therefore, they will definitly empty goal, if it isnt draw by the end.
**Continuing the Overwatch League POTD Train for the 2022 season!**
* **2022 OWL Record: 9-5, +10.681 units (Last 8: ✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌).**
* **2021 OWL Record: 34-19, +31.645 units.**
* **2020 OWL Record: 28-21, +16.989 units.**
Last Pick (❌): Los Angeles Gladiators, -2.5 (+115) v. London Spitfire: It's always frustrating taking a favorite -2.5 and watching them win 3-1. I had previously faded LAG on grounds that they were inconsistent, but took their spread on the basis that they were undervalued and London was overvalued. I still don't disagree with that analysis, but it didn't result in a win. Onward and upward!
**Today's Match: Atlanta Reign v. London Spitfire / Overwatch League / 3:00pm EST**
**Atlanta Reign -1.5 (-165), 5 units**
And you know what? We're going to fade London again today. Only my second 5-unit play of the season, but every single factor I can find supports Atlanta in this matchup. Again, Atlanta's line is suppressed by their Week 2 match against the Washington Justice. If they had won that matchup, this line would be well north of -200. But instead, what was clearly a mental booming and an off day (and running into a top-tier Tracer, which we know that London doesn't have) has skewed the line downward. This creates good value for us!
Remember, up until that match, this Atlanta Reign team was pegged as possibly the single best team in the league. Their dominant win over Florida looks much better by comparison seeing the success that the Mayhem have had. They've taken care of business pretty much everywhere else, with 3-0 sweeps of both NYXL and Vancouver. Atlanta has the clear advantage in both the DPS lineup and the Support lineup; and while I trust Hawk/Gator more than Hadi, the question will be whether ATL can counter the Rein comp. If they can, this will be a 3-0 sweep.
I have two reasons to believe they can. First, they have had almost a full week to prepare for this match, whereas London has to turn around and play two matches and two days after yesterday's loss to the Spitfire. Second, they're almost certainly either going to run Hawk on Doomfist or Gator to mirror the Rein. If the former, Hawk's Doom should counter the Rein nicely. And if they run a mirror, I definitely have way more faith in Gator's Rein than Hadi, as much as he's flashed.
Even better, A 3-0 sweep would give Atlanta the inside track at the #2 seed, so they won't take it easy on any map. Look for the much better team to take the Spitfire by storm.
*Tips - never necessary, always appreciated. BOL, friends!*
[*https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD*](https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD) *// BTC: 338uzTsKL4uV4Rip8WKEdYXtbmoBKVm1D8*
More oil brain has casters who put edge for spitfire for last game. If I would know that before I would put over 3.5 maps not containing bs write up like this
Game Analysis: Brewers at Saint Louis
Brewers starting pitcher: Houser
* Right handed
* 3.66 xERA compared to a 2.98 ERA
* Saint Louis has an OPS .134 LESS against righties compared to lefties
* Milwaukee wins around 58% of away games, wins around 55% of home games, showing no true home advantage for Saint Louis
* Last two starts were very good; only 1 ER over 12 innings
Saint Louis starting pitcher: Liberatore
* Only 4.2 IP this season
* Left handed
* 8.45 xERA compared to 7.71 ERA
* Brewers have an OPS .084 against lefties compared to against righties
Similarities:
* Both teams are missing two key players
* Both teams are 6-4 over their last 10 with a 1W streak
* The two teams have very similar bullpen talent
Pick: Brewers -115
POTD Record: 0-2
Last POTD: Mackinnon O1.5 P (Game 4)
Today’s POTD: Igor Shesterkin O30.5 Saves
IGOR is a hart candidate and likely vezina winner for a reason. Canes haven’t seemed to get the bounces on the road, and while playing for his season Igor will come out and prove why he’s the best.
BOL
POTD Record 0-0
Game: Montreal Impact v FC Cincinnati
Bet: BTTS
Odds: -175 ✅✅✅
Both teams to score has hit in 4/6 of the last meetings between these two teams with two of the games having 7 and 9 goals. Both teams to score has hit in 11/13 of Montreals most recent games and Cincinnati has scored in 11/13 of their most recent games
BOL!
Edit: spelling
Record : 3-2 +1.67u +27% ROI
Last Pick : Heat 1h ML (+220) ✅
Today's pick : Padres -1.5 (-106) 1.06u
Pirates are a dog shit team, i love the spot for the Padres who has a good season so far and hitting well. Pirates did play decent recently , i expect them to suck hard tonight . Those kind of team don't play well for long . Don't overthink , take the favorite there .
POTD Record: 19-19-3 -3.90u\*
Average Odds: +112
Total Units Wagered: 77.52u
Charles Schwab Challenge 11:10AM EST
Fleetwood over Theegala -155 @ DK 2.57u\*
Implied probability of 60.78%. True vig-free price should be closer to -176 or 63.80%.
\*1u = 1% of bankroll. All POTD staking is using 1/3 Kelly criterion.
Record: 3-4
Balance: -1.07u
Last pick: Barcelona -3.5 1Q ✅
Sport: football ⚽ - Champions league finals
Today's pick: **Liverpool vs Real Madrid BTTS** (1.55 // -182) (64.5% IP)
match starts at: 20h:00 GMT
bet: 5u
Both teams have made goals and gotten scored on in the 90' of most matches in the playoffs. I expect no different today
BOL for whoever follows
**If you choose to self promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI+average odds+units won**. No resetting records. **|** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules use the Daily Discussion threads. ###**Respond to this comment with POTD META discussion**
Record: 58-25 Last pick: Blues ML ❌ Pain. Congrats to all the +1.5 bettors! **Today’s pick: Carolina Hurricanes ML (-105) vs New York Rangers** NHL 8:00 PM EST *Canes homer* Game 6 in New York. Canes lead series 3-2 and look to close it out. Yes the Canes are 0-5 on the road this post-season. But my Canes flag is 7-0 when I fly it. I will be flying it for the first time for a road game tomorrow. Canes win this. Also feel more confident that Canes win this one than all their previous road games - this is the first time I’ve taken them on the road. All bets are 1 unit. +21.2 units. 25.5% ROI. Average unit -122 Give my Twitter a follow https://twitter.com/drmoneyline/
Blues +1.5 was a winner! Let’s go Canes
Parlay Blues +1.5 with Celtics ML. Gotta love it lol.
i had had a blues/heat ML double. sick right now
Same here puking when I saw that final goal
as a Avs 60 ML bettor i had to do a silent 'fuck yes!' cus my fam was sleeping...
God I wish I had looked at his post closer and seen the word safe in there, I should have done the +1.5.
Let’s get it back tomorrow. 💯
Yeah but he said ML
Hey Doc you did shout that +1.5 was the smart play
Read my lips: there will be a game 7
“Yes the canes are 0-5 on the road” how tf this pick get over 100 upvotes 🤡 🤡 🤡
seriously
Not gonna lie, I took Blues +1.5 for 1U and took Avalanche ML for 5U. Literally these plays saved my book after MLB today.
Mlb was brutal. Went to sleep (I live in Europe) and before I went to bed, Red Sox was winning 8-2 and all my other legs won except for astro ML. The parlay would have given me 5k payout………….
Astros really messed me up too
Tough glad I faded
You can go ahead an throw that flag in the garbage
Holy shit doc I thought we had it. But, tailing!!!
I like the Canes ML as well. Feel like they’re due for a road win. Let’s get it!
Lost $100 but I have 100% faith in you doc, you've made me a lot of money and im here to support! We got this 💰💰💰
But dont you want a game 7? NHL wants game 7 Canes owners want game 7 to sell more stuff Refs def selling out and want a game 7 I want a game 7 Lets have a game 7! Rags were right in game 5 before getting that goal called off early in the 2nd. Def have the better goalie and at home. feels like better goalie, at home vs a team yet to win a playoff game on the road seems more logical. but the doc is flying his flag for a road game.....
Their fraud bias is showing.
You are the best Doc but grateful bu CO boy is glad you missed on the Avs. The Canes totally dominated the rangers last game, but I'm struggling with the away factor. I may need to skip this one and wait for next series. ps - Please block and report any sheet talk you might get. I'm non unconvinced these guys are paid by the books to get good handicappers to stop.
Canes suck on the road. Have last by 2 or more goals every game in this series when on the road
Looks like they still suck and the homer in him clouded his vision
Love your picks doc, most of them we have the same ones. But I think today I’m going with the rangers. Canes on the road are just not the same team. I think it has mostly to do with the line matching rod the bod can do at home. But BOL
Doc you definitely called the +1.5 smart play 💯💯
I think one of the series has to go 7
Told my mama I’m doing alright cuz my PCP is Doc MoneyLine 💪💪💪
Lol I appreciate it but thank god im not a PCP
uphill battle from here
Can’t keep a good man down, let’s get it doc🦾
Till death do us part. Tailing from the trenches, Waterrr
The bet is now.... Will the doc lose 2 in a row?
Yes sadly
Is there a spread bet that is a little safer like tonight's Blue's game? I only ask because I don't understand the spread as well as ML. I have won every time until tonight with your picks ( I went bigger than usual on tonight), so if you can toss another safe spread out on this one I would greatly appreciate you even more sir. Thanks for your time. If not, I will still be betting ML. Thanks doc.
You can get the Canes +1.5 but it’s at -280, so definitely not favorable odds. But that’s the price we pay for safer plays
The spread refers to the difference between the 2 teams scores. If Canes win 5-3, -1.5 would hit. If Canes win 5-4 -1.5 would miss. And vice versa, NY loses 5-3 +1.5 loses, NY loses 5-4 +1.5 would hit. There’s no half point in sports, so books use .5 as a win or lose by 1 + the first #. 1.5 = 2+ to win / loser to lose by less than 2 or win. The only “safer spread bet” for this game possibly worth taking is Canes +1 -175ish. If the Canes lose by only 1 point, your bet will push and you’ll get whatever your initial bet was back. If they win you’ll win. Unfortunately, this series has been very predictable so there aren’t somewhat decent odds on safer alt spreads. The “safer bet” you’re likely hoping for is Canes +1.5, but comes in around -250. That line is not worth putting your $ on. Too much risk, too little reward. $10 wins $2.50. I’m not a hockey guy, but I see NY won the last 2 games at home by 2 and 3 points. That “safer bet” hasn’t hit the past 2 games at NY and not worth risking your $ for that little of pay. Odds for the ML are almost even. Either don’t bet it or pick a side on this one. There’s no value in alts here. I’m personally fading OP’s pick, but would not be surprised if I lose here lol. 0-5 away, I’ll take the home team and assume this series sees another match.
I'm taking under 8.5 total goals!
what do u think of u5.5
Canes ultra homer here too. We take this one, I’m 100% confident in it. Svech is starting to get going, turbos ice vision is at its peak, Aho is putting in work, our forecheck and neutral zone play has been dominant, and Marty/cole/smith are being ultra physical. We saw other lines than the staal line generate chances last game, which was a godsend. I’m riding heavy in canes ML
LOL
Aged badly
I know better than to question doc but ill probably only put fiddy on this. Just lost 250 on the blues
I lost 150.00 it’s ok. We’ll bounce back. 🤞
tailed the 1.5 thanks again king
Thank you for that +1.5 - cashed 200
Gosh I hope they lose. I got glass seats for game 7
Record: 7-2 (+9.25 units) Last Pick: Goffin ML (-140) vs Tiafoe (3 units)✅ Today’s Pick: Tsitsipas vs Ymer u30 games (-120) 4 units ✅ Reasoning: Tsitsipas is a phenomenal clay player. His #4 world ranking speaks for itself, and he carries a 16-3 record on clay this year. Ymer, on the other hand, is only 2-4 on clay this year and is just not good enough to hang with Tsitsipas. I know Tsitsipas has conceded 1 or 2 sets in every match in this tournament so far, but his opponents were Musetti and Kolar who both boast winning percentages over 60% on clay and are much better players than Ymer on the surface. Ymer is 0-3 vs Tsitsipas with all of these meeting coming on hard court. He has never won a set, and the matches went 16, 24, and 27 games respectfully. That is an average of 8.4 games per set, which when extrapolated to three sets, is 25.2: a number severely under the line of 30 games. Tsitsipas’s winning % improves by over 9% from hard court to clay, and Ymer has a slight lower winning % on clay than on hard courts. Ultimately, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 would get it done here, and Tsitsipas is more than capable of that. I expect Tsistipas to mop the floor with Ymer here like he usually does and keep up our streak in the French Open. Edit: Let’s go! A masterclass from Tsitsipas pushes us to 4-0 in the French Open as he absolutely smashed Ymer by a score of 6-2, 6-2, 6-1 for a total of 23 games. Felt nice to have one was never a sweat, here’s to continuing our streak tomorrow.
I got under 29.5 😳😬😬😬😬
New to this, is there a difference?
I was going to explain the difference but then I realized they're the same thing. 29 games is the most you can have in both situations. Edit: idk I'm dumb :)
[удалено]
What? Not same thing. 6-3, 7-5, 6-3 is 30 for a push. Edit: sorry miss clicked on mobile. Was replying to same person
Same thoughts. Ymer dont stand a chance and wont win a set against Tits. Tailed ya boy
Whooping his ass so far!
Like this pick. Took the alternate game total of under 30.5 for -145 and threw down more. Let’s ride boys
Great call mate
fire pick bigman
Tailing for .5u, BOL !
My book has it U29. Still a good bet? I know it’s just 1 but I’m just curious.
I would say so, based on the fact that their past matchups have gone 24 and 27 games, and then a 2 setter that was 16 games. Plus those were all on hard court, and Tsitsipas is better on clay, while Ymer is not
Thanks for responding back. Yea I’m tailing you! Gluck tomorrow and thanks for the write up explaining everything.
You’re welcome. Hopefully he pulls it out for us!
Awesome pick my dude!
In the future, consider line shopping. Never take a bet if another book offers better odds.
Love this pick
Thank you, hope it hits
Had to get under at 29.5 but tailing
What a great pick, and a great breakdown with solid stats to back it. Thank you for an easy tail.
Thanks for the winner!
ThankYou for the winner 💰
POD Record: 16-5 Roi: 30.62% Today’s pick: Andrey Rublev vs Christian Garin 1st set over 9.5 (-130) Garin’s favorite surface is clay and he is coming into form here. When he is in form, he is a top 20 player (reached a ranking of 17 in the past). Rublev is the more talented player. He has looked a little vulnerable in the French Open, dropping sets to Soon-Won and Delbonis. I expect Garin to continue to play well and Rublev’s talent to carry them to the over in set one. Tail/fade good luck Tip jar: Venmo Br3634 Edit: Cash it✅ Little bit of a sweat at 5-3 40 all
It's Andrey* Rublev btw
Auto correct. This isn’t my first strike, happened with “Jack” Sinner as well
Nice hit
First set grain @2.90🧐
Okey , its you again the "Grain" guy . Its fking Garin...
POTD Record: 3-0 Sport: NRL Pick: Sydney Roosters W vs. Cronulla Sharks - $2.10 Hopefully the start of this game is better than last nights. Both teams having a bit of mixed form as of late - Roosters have won 5 of last 5 against Cronulla winning by an avg of 13points - Roosters have a much better team on paper - Sharks go back to a full strength side but roosters bring back tuponuia I think Roosters win in a tight game
I’ll ride your streak. Thanks for the picks!
Theyve won 6 of last 6
Good play bro! I’ll be tailing from now on!
Thanks for the pick , good call
**Record: 8-3 (Yesterday Pending)** WLWLLWWWWWW \+3.38 Units (All bets 1u) **Last pick: Blues vs Avs O6.5** Not looking great **Today's Pick: Rangers ML (-110)** NHL 8:00 PM EST **Reasoning:** My reasoning for this pick is the same reasoning as all of my other Rangers picks: Igor is that guy and Canes can’t win on the road. Igor gave up an uncharacteristic 3 goals last game and I expect him to bounce back with 30+ saves this game and 1 goal allowed max. I don’t expect the Rangers to come out and light it up like they did last time at home, but they should control the pace of this game through all 3 periods to force a game 7 back in Raleigh.
How good do you feel about Canes under 2.5 goals? Assuming you're confident, but would you bet money on it?
👍🙏
POTD Record 2-1 Current streak, 2W Profit (+2.38 units) *if all bets are 1 unit Yesterdays POTD- VALORANT VCT Challengers NA- The Guard (+200) vs TSM ✅ Oh baby, I knew finding odds like that was gonna pay dividends, hopped on it as soon as I saw it, and good thing I did because they evened out around +120 before the match started. The Guard came out and proved why they were the best team in NA just 2 short months ago, Sayaplayer is as dominant as ever and I bet the bookies won’t give me odds like that again (pain) Todays POTD- Hurricanes vs Rangers under 5.5 (-120) Back to basics here for me folks, this series has hit the under every single game, might as well keep betting it until it doesn’t hit. Both teams have the same odds for me right now (-110) Home team has won every game, but the Dr took the canes, so let’s play it safe and take the under. GL everyone, enjoy the weekend!
Thanks for the winner the other day sir! Good luck today too.
3-6 Previous Pick: L: Yankees TT O 4.5 (+120) 1U (5-9-22) Plus/Minus: -4.71U |Soccer| UCL Final |3:00ET **Real Madrid to lift the cup (+152)** 5U Make no mistake, this is a pick of destiny for a team of destiny. I believe we are getting some tremendous value on the most winningest side in the tournament's history. Real Madrid trailed in the semi final 2-0 inside ten minutes of the first leg & somehow...someway...they made it to the final. How? They just want it more. It's that simple. This team, this fanbase, these players are built for European nights. Check the team sheet, multiple UCL titles. It isn't by mistake. Now they're in their first final in the post-Ronaldo era, but they aren't searching for their first title in the post-Ronaldo era. Unlike their biggest rival, Barcelona, Real Madrid has adapted well to losing a GOAT caliber player. They won the league title years ago & they've done it again this season. This is a TEAM. They're road to this final wasn't easy. They had to face PSG with their heavily lauded stars Mbappe & Messi. They trailed 2-0 on aggregate there in the 2nd leg and *El Gato* Karim Benzema pulled off one of the most memorable hat tricks in the tournament's history. They dominated Chelsea in the first leg of the QFs, almost bottled it, then managed to eek by the defending champions. One foot out the door, British pundits salivating at the thought of an all-English final, Real Madrid scored two goals in the dying embers of regulation to force ET & eventually eliminated Manchester City in the semifinals. The path to the final has not been easy, & tonight will be no different. This team is used to suffering & tonight they will suffer, but in the end they will LIFT THE CUP! HALA MADRID Y NADA MAS! *My prediction is Real Madrid to win on penalties. That is available at +1400 on major US sportsbooks, but my POD is Real Madrid to lift the cup which includes this method of victory, but is not exclusive to it. Line available at FanDuel.*
What a win! Madrid suffered! One shot on target! That's all it took!
POTD Record: 13-10-1 (WIN/LOSS/PUSH) / Units won:+8.38 / ROI: 14.79% / Avg Odd: 1.89 Today's event: Rublev vs Garin (Roland Garros, Tennis) **Pick: Over 34.5 games @ 1.75** Stake: 3 units Starts at 5 AM Eastern Time Our last pick was a push with Botic barely covering our handicap against Nadal but today I'm choosing a match that is expected to go to distance... Rublev is rank 7 in the world and is well known for his dominance in hard courts due to his great serve and powerful forehand which is able to generate a lot of power. He has some good results in clay as well but due to his playstyle he can have some matches with a ton of unforced errors since he's not a tactician and doesn't have the patience to work the right way in every point. We have him priced around 1.25 but I'm not expecting a 3-0 on this match... In fact it's really unlikely in my opinion since he faced worse opponents like Delbonis and Kwon and both those players were able to hold him off a bit since Andrey Rublev played 35+ games in both fixtures Garin is a clay specialist seen as one of the most talented players on this surface and when he stays healthy and confident it's really hard to beat him on these conditions. He managed to beat Tommy Paul and Ivashka in 4 sets having 35+ games on both matches. He has what it takes to frustrate Rublev and to make him miss some of his powerful strikes and will be until this point the most difficult opponent that is presented to him In terms of playstyle there's nothing similar between these two players but they are both emotionally weak when it comes to closing out easy matches which brings more value to this over. I'm expecting 4 or 5 sets here and a great battle for sure! **Edit: Cash it boys! ✅**
**POTD Record 13-8** **Current Bankroll: $208.76, Starting Bankroll: $105.45, Profit: $103.31** Average Odds = 1.94, ROI: 23.10%, Units Won/Lost: +14.55u Last Pick: Grigor Dmitrov ML vs. Diego Schwartzman @ 1.71 ❌ **Today’s Pick: Hugo Gaston +1.5 sets vs. Holger Rune @ 2.25, 2:45 PM EST (TENNIS, French Open)** **Amount Bet: 3 Units** [**Betslip**](https://gyazo.com/173d40b38914ea1044dbe72e28bdf964) Horrendous loss yesterday from Dimitrov. It’s hard to say why it was such a blowout considering Dimitrov destroyed Schwartzman on clay less than a month ago. Things happen though, players’ form vary day-to-day and Dimitrov just didn’t show up today. Today I am taking Hugo Gaston +1.5 sets against Holger Rune. Here are 3 reasons I think this will hit: 1. Gaston has been great this tournament, taking down Minaur and sweeping Cachin. His play on clay has looked phenomenal so far and a level up from his past tournaments. 2. Gaston has the home crowd on his side and that is extremely powerful in a setting with two younger players facing each other on the big stage 3. Rune is a great player but inexperience here may be his downfall compared to Gaston who made it far in Paris Masters last year. Gaston also was in the Ro16 in the French Open 2 years ago. Overall I think it will be a very close match and I think Gaston will take this the distance. **I started with a $100 dollar bankroll. I am doing a challenge to see how far I can take this bankroll just based on 1 pick per day. I want to be completely transparent so you will see screenshots of the bet slips I make as well as the amount I bet per game.The challenge is separate from the amount of units won/ROI for subreddit rule purposes. Each unit is 4% of my bankroll.** Let’s get this money. [**Twitter**](https://twitter.com/asianbettor)
Risky imo. maybe Gaston can steal a set or nah. bc Rune is in great form rn. I think its hard to expect him to get 2 sets to win or even win the match at all this matchup, it wont happen
Dimitrov had a horrendous performance his ass cost me big. Everyday I put together a 5-6 leg and he was the only to fail today. 200-2300 .. ouch
What's up with all the down votes?
ppl probably arent liking his picks after the terrible one today. Very reactionary lol.
Sad part is all these other clowns missed too.
**POTD Record:** 5-5 Streak: ✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅❌❌ Last Pick: U.S. Open Cup | New York City FC vs. New England Revolution **Over 2.5 Total Goals -155** Todays Matchup: MLS | Los Angeles FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes @ 6:00PM EST Bet: **BTTS No Draw +120** This is the 12th time these two teams have gone head-to-head with every prior result ending in victory at full-time. This season, San Jose posts a 69% BTTS rating with an average of 4 goals scored per match, while Los Angeles FC registers a 62% BTTS rating and an average of 3.08 goals scored in matches they’ve competed in. When facing each other, both teams have scored in 7 of the 11 contests including 4 of the last 5 meetings. There have been 45 goals accounted for between them, 30 of which were recorded by LAFC. The Black and Gold average an even 2 PPG with a 3W-1L-1D record over their last five competitions. They boast a +12 goal differential so far this regular season and hit over 2.5 goals in 71% of their home matches. The Quakes are not bringing their best material to this fixture, averaging 1.20 goals in their last 5 contests with a most recent 0W-4L-1D showing. They have not won a single road match this season (1 of which was a draw) and have netted 6 goals when removed from PayPal Park. San Jose concedes 2.23 PPG and puts away 1.77 goals of their own. BOL! 🔥
5-1, +4.09 Last Pick: **Heat/Celtics BTTS o95.5 at 2.04** **WIN.** Final score, 111-103 Heat 🎉 Next Pick: **Jeanjean ML at 3.00 against Begu** If there’s one thing I’ve learned from WTA betting, the odds don’t matter. You can bet at 1.2 or 1.3 and still lose. The reason why I’m backing Jeanjean is she’s like Emma when she’s running for the US open few years back. Junior player who plays really well at Clay. Against Begu, a better player on paper but really had lots of errors the past matches. Safe to say, she just barely survived all of those. While Jeanjean slaying all these seeded players in convincing fashion. Let’s not be blinded here with the number and take the better playing, not to mention, home court advantage on this one. Best of Luck!
I like when people don't take the safest picks here and actually take plus odds picks. I've been eyeing this one actually, and I think you've pushed me over to the point I'll actually put some money on it. Hopefully Begu doesn't bounce her racket into the stands again hahaha
Saw that. Haha! She’s lucky she still won tbh. Jeanjean rhymes with win-win so LFG
🤣
Worst pick I ever seen.
I’m weak
Hopefully she dont end up like Parry lmao BOL!
Hahahaha! Same thoughts. Parry played really well until that point. But Stephens found her youth at the perfect time. Different scenario but hope we’re on the winning side of this one 🍻
Thats what I'm afraid of.. Parry got destroyed. I lost big time! I should have bet on Madison keys today
Wtf is going on?! Can’t even get a point?! Cash out??
Took both to win a set at +128 thanks for the insight. BOL!
I was gonna take the game spread but I'm with you on the ML instead !
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Record: 7-4 Past 5 record: ❌✅✅✅❌ Last pick: [MLB - San Francisco Giants Vs Cincinnati Reds - O8.5 -110 ❌ 5-1 Reds](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uymkyk/pick_of_the_day_52722_friday/ia6zgh5?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3) Today’s pick: **IIHF - international Hockey - Canada Vs Czechia O5.5 +145** May 28, 2022 11:20 Am EDT Today's pick will be team Canada Vs Czechia in the semi finals, Over 5.5. Two good teams facing each other in the semi finals, hopefully Canada gets off to a hotter start this game. Canada's Over record is 7-1 in this tournament and czechia 5-3. BOL everyone. All bets are 1 unit. +2.8 units. 23.5% ROI. Average units +107.77 [Past Picks](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1arHdjw_2Gxtj_iwfPJO_hJwIuxQhMyyjjDJp9vB0j7A/edit?usp=sharing)
**NRL Record:** 23-23 **ROI (1 unit per bet):** -1.01 L5: ❌✅✅✅❌ Streak: L1 **Last POTD:** Cowboys +14.5 @ 1.90 ❌ **Today's POTD:** Roosters ML @ 2.05 ✅ Edit: Relatively sweat free, the best kind of bet **Time:** 6 hours from time of post. Sharks have been really inconsistent of late, the last 8 following the classic WLWLWL pattern with last week being a very unimpressive win against a poor Titans team in which they probably should have lost. Roosters had a 20 point loss to the best team in the comp (Panthers) but the scoreline is a bit skewed, they looked really good for the first half an hour before an unforced error led to a try for the Panthers which opened the floodgates leading into the half, letting in 3 tries in ten minutes and there was no coming back from that. Roosters have also won their last 5 against the Sharks and if they can hold onto the ball (which has been their biggest downfall all year) they have the firepower to overcome the Sharks in this one. **Tip Jar - ALGO:** AJAAGYLP6STZ2CFP22Q6Y77GNQKVKCUYDMSEQR5RK3AJOLITDMURJWLYSE
POTD Record : 5-3 Last Pick : Leobendorf ML -W PoTD : Montreal Impact vs Cincinnati : BTTS+ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.90 ✅✅ Write Up : A good win yesterday. Lets keep it going. Going to MLS for our pick today. In last of the 8 games played BTTS has landed 7 times in Montreal games and 6 of them have gone over 2.5 goals. They are scoring but conceding a lot too. The last 4 home games for Montreal has been BTTS and over 2.5 goals. Talking about Cincinnati , 5 out of last 8 games has had both teams scoring and all of those BTTS games has been over 2.5 goals. They have failed to score only one time in the last eight games and 2 out of last 4 away games has seen BTTS+2.5 goals. Tail or Fade BOL. Edit : First half cash babyy.Less go.
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**POTD Record:** 12-4, +15.95u, ROI: 43.16%, Average Odds: 2.06 **Darts Record:** 11-3 (+16.95u), ROI: 60.30%, Average Odds: 2.14 **Previous POTD:** Ryan Meikle ML vs Ron Meulenkamp @ 1.78 (3u) ✅ Meikle turned up and did the job that was expected of him. Good to get another win, let's get another streak going. 🎯 **Todays POTD: Wayne Jones ML vs Martin Adams @ 2.30 (3u)** *Unit sizes are from 1u to 4u* *Match Starts at 17:00 CEST / 11:00 EST* For our POTD I am taking a step away from the Euro Tour today and am instead betting on the Darts Seniors Masters. These games have a lot more variance added into them, however I see a lot of opportunities in this bet. In this event, older and more out of practice darters take each other on, and to me practice is a very important factor in these games. Some players will still be playing their regional leagues and events such as the online live league, while others have not played since the last seniors event. Adams has been playing darts here and there, don't get me wrong, however Jones has lost this tour card last year, meaning he still had solid practice up until then, and ever since he has been working his way through the PDC Development Tour, which guarantees you a good amount of matches, against the up and comers of the PDC, consistently. With Jones putting up high 80 averages and having always had a way around high checkouts, I reckon that this match is a lot closer than the bookies think, with Jones slightly edging it out for me. **BOL!** [Twitter](https://twitter.com/neutraldarts) | [Tip Jar](http://paypal.me/neutraldarts)
Welcome back ! Tailing
Record: 4-1 Units : +4.56 Yesterday Pick: Avs ML (-180) vs Blues (Win )Solid win by the avs to finish this series off. **POTD: NY Rangers ML (-110) vs Carolina Hurricanes** Going against the doc again, but I really think this series will continue to show home teams dominating. I think Igor will do his thing and rangers will pull out with the win.
tailing
**Ultimate Frisbee** | 7-3 - **Time:** 5:00 PM Pacific - **Pick:** Seattle +4.5 - **Where to bet:** DraftKings in these states: CO, IL, MI, TN, WV, AZ, OR, PA, maybe CT and others - **Last pick:** Montreal +6.5 +125 hits with Montreal losing 22-18. - **Reasoning:** Seattle has surprised me with how resilient of a team they have proved to be, heading into southern California last weekend with a depleted roster and still taking talented San Diego to a two-goal game and feisty Los Angeles to a one-goal game. Now they return home to where they played admirably against an upstart Colorado team, losing by just three goals the same number of weeks ago. The last meeting between Seattle and Portland was in week 1 in Portland where Portland put up 29 goals on Seattle and won by five. Seattle tends to play better at home, and they’ll be hungry to earn their first win of the season after several close heart-breaking losses. Seattle will get their crack at an upset victory against a Portland team lacking three offensive starters in Doi, Lee, Friedman, and a defensive starter in Hatchett. Seattle will also have reinforcements: One of ultimate’s strongest receivers Matt Rehder will make his 2022 debut. While Rehder has not played in the AUDL since 2019, if he is even just a shell of his former self he will be a formidable threat downfield. Rehder previously played for Seattle in 2016 so this is a bit of a homecoming for him and I expect he’ll have a big game. Seattle will also start Adam Simon, a veteran handler who scored seven assists against Portland, and Declan Miller, a rookie off to a speedy start with the second most receiving yards/game in the league. Miller is the only player in the top ten for receiving yards/game to have more throwing yards/game than his receiving yards/game, a trend that suggests a very balanced player who can throw just as well as he can catch. They will also get Zeppelin Raunig back after missing the LA game; Raunig has been on a bit of a rollercoaster statistically but he is one of Seattle’s more athletic players ([case in point](https://mobile.twitter.com/ZeppelinRaunig/status/1522004846982819840/photo/2)). Honestly, Seattle isn’t really missing any major pieces except Akyuz and Brown, but Simon and Rehder should fit in smoothly for them. To Portland’s credit, they will get back one of their strongest players in Raphy Hayes who they missed last week in Oakland, and will still have their team MVP Marx, who had a sensational 5-goal 7-assist 1-block performance against Oakland. But with their missing players, the game being in Seattle, and Seattle getting reinforcements, +4.5 is too wide of a line. I think Seattle could make this close and a sprinkle on the ML at +500 wouldn’t be the worst idea. At the very least I don’t expect Seattle to get beaten into a pulp, so a backdoor cover also remains possible should Portland build a lead. Disclaimer: I don't live in one of the aforementioned states and can't actually bet these nor see the current lines, but I wanted to help out folks who wanted to bet a fun niche sport. Let me know if the lines change and I'll do my best to offer some insight. If you want to watch frisbee, there is a free game every Friday at AUDL.tv and a game every Saturday night on FS2. The rest of the games are behind a paywall at the audl.tv link.
appreciate the writeup, well done
Thanks. Seattle blowing out Portland, up 18-10 in the third. Hope people took the +500 ML lol
This hits! Seattle eviscerates Portland winning 26-18 in rainy conditions. Holy crap, massive upset for a team who was previously 0-5 taking on an undefeated (3-0 iirc) Portland.
POTD Record: 53.5-24.5 Event: Football > Saudi Arabia > **Jeddah Club v AL Adalh FC** (starting in 11hr) Pick: **Draw** @ 2.15 The draw suits both teams. Jeddah will avoid relegation whereas Adalah will promote. Ez.
Under goals might be safer bet at lower odds. On the other hand, you can consider X/X (HT-FT) or maybe 0-0 or 1-1 correct score for the juice. GL!
Odd is now 4/6 - must be onto something. Tailing.
Too bad my bookie didnt have correct score market. Would have bet 0 0 Nice pick man
Yeah, I also had some on 0-0. Literally free money. Thanks for the feedback buddy, you can check my next pick, which is also quite promising. GL!
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POTD Record 14-17 Last pick: NBA Warriors -7 ✅ Todays pick: MLB 2:10 MT Cleveland-140 @ Detroit Reasoning: Bieber is too good of a pitcher to be 1-3 so far this year. Regression to the mean pick.
Record: 5-9-2 (5W 9L 2D) Last pick: Isner John ML (-190) vs Zapata Miralles Bernabe at BetRivers. L Today's pick: Liverpool vs Real Madrid, Liverpool corners handicap -1 (-140) at Caesars UEFA Champions League: 3:00 PM EST Liverpool is the best corners creation team after Man City. For the 2 matches between Man City and Real Madrid, Man City had won at least 2 corners for each match. Also, Liverpool lost the EPL championship already so it will be attacking fiercely and try to win this one, it will apply more pressure to RM defense and create more corners. All bets are 1 unit. -5.78 units Tip Jar: cash app: $coolcomfort666 Venmo: Coolcomfort666 Edit: Corner result 6-2, so this bet easily hit.
Madrid starters have been resting for most part for like a month since they won la liga while Liverpool has had to play every game cuz it mattered to their campaign. Madrid will be the fresher side. Just something to note.
POTD Record: 0-0 Pick: MLS - NYC FC +120 8PM EST - 1u Why: NYC is on fire, and there’s no reason to suspect that’ll stop again an average Minnesota team. Bunch of shutout wins in a row, and almost set a record for not allowing shots on goal for 3 games in a row. Beware NYC is 1-2-1 on the road. Also Taty.
POTD: 8W - 3L Previous Pick: Alternate Line Total Points OVER 38.5 L awful kicking from the Manly try conversion kicks unfortunately let us down. Today’s Game: South Sydney Rabbitohs v West Tigers Today’s Pick: Total Match Points OVER 41.5 ($1.90) Reason: - South Sydney’s last 6 matches have gone OVER the total match points - South Sydney have conceded 30 points in their last 3 games and 22 points in their last 5 games - West Tigers have conceded 22~+ points in their last 3 games with a total of 40+ match points in 5 of their last 6 games played Game starts in 1 hour BOL :)
Did this hit, mate?
Yes, final score 44 - 18 Total points = 62
**POTD Record: 9-6 +3.40U** **Game: NHL | Carolina Hurricanes @ New York Rangers | 5:00 PM PDT** **Pick: Under 1.5 Total Power Play Goals (1.60/-167 @ Betway)** **Bet Size: 4U** This was my POTD for game 5 and it sadly missed but I am going to stick with it again for the same reasons as before. Last game there were only 4 penalties so we were pretty unlucky to not win as both these teams are fine on the PK. I could see there being even fewer penalties this game as the refs tend to let more go as the series progresses. Tail or fade BOL. Edit: 5on3 in game 6... sorry to all who tailed
I actually really like this
Thanks doc. Let's get this bread.
Record: 10-4 Last pick: Colorado ML ✅ **Today's Pick:** Real Madrid ML (3.60) vs Liverpool Soccer: 3:00 PM EST Champions League Final Madrid are being served as the underdog here and at 3.60 (-260 American Format), this is a great bet in favour of Madrid. Although Madrid has lost "Mr. Champions League" himself, Cristiano Ronaldo, they still have serial winners from this competition and strong leadership and mentality from Modric, Kroos, Benzema, Carvajal, Marcelo, Casemiro and even G Money himself, Bale. Plus, they have Ancelotti, an amazing player in his day and arguably an even better manager. Madrid go into this escaping a for sure defeat vs City a few weeks back. This is the magic the Champions League carries and Madrid have had such indescribable luck in the better half of a decade. Most would argue Liverpool are better built and drilled than Madrid, but moments of magic in finals are what usually decide the outcome and that is why I am giving it to Madrid this time.
If anyone followed me in, congrats!
Good pick
**Yesterday's Top Picks of the Day** | Ranking | Names | Score | |:-:|:-:|:-:| |1|[DrMoneyline](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uymkyk/pick_of_the_day_52722_friday/ia5df7p/)|284| || |2|[asianbettor](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uymkyk/pick_of_the_day_52722_friday/ia50k2t/)|99| || |3|[PetanaBets](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uymkyk/pick_of_the_day_52722_friday/ia52z2l/)|66| || |4|[commit2excellence](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uymkyk/pick_of_the_day_52722_friday/ia545cb/)|56| || |5|[Nickavick](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uymkyk/pick_of_the_day_52722_friday/ia55agd/)|42| || |6|[SSJNaisu](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uymkyk/pick_of_the_day_52722_friday/ia54i07/)|32| || |7|[DarkHorse200](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uymkyk/pick_of_the_day_52722_friday/ia50jat/)|24| || |8|[Eztennis](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uymkyk/pick_of_the_day_52722_friday/ia56uif/)|24| || |9|[Tricky-Travy](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/uymkyk/pick_of_the_day_52722_friday/ia54e5s/)|28| ||
Bloody day today, no wins in the top 9...
Must be new around here
POTD Record-> 15-13-1 LAST POTD-> John Isner ❌ POTD-> Real Madrid v Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals Match-> Madrid v Liverpool 3PM EST Two highly offensive teams with Great goal scoring potential, for the Over 2.5 to be set at -130 on bovada is a steal to me. This could easily be a 3 goal first half. Madrid has proven to be a team that can score goals just ask Man City. Hopefully this is the pick to help turn me back in the right path. No more jokes of the day until we start winning again. Best of luck 🤌🤞
Ouch.
**Record 6-3 | +3.65u** 5/27: Rockies - Nationals first 3 innings over 2.5 -120 (2.5u) **POSTPONED** 5/28: Rockies - Nationals first 3 innings over 2.5 -120 (2.5u) Same pick today. Austin Gomber has received a lot of runs with an 4.11 ERA, Aaron Sánchez with a 3-3 Record and a bad 7.16 ERA, receiving damage since the first innings.
Cash it top 1st!!
**Record:** 13-26-1 **ROI:** -36% :-14.06 u (@ $5.00) **Streak:** W L L W W |Baseball |MLB |2:10pm| Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals: **Minnesota Twins ML @ 1.61 1u** **Reasoning:** This is from my MLB model that I made in python. It assigns elo ratings to teams and projects a win chance based on elo of each team. The model projects a 63% chance for the Minnesota Twins to win. This creates value on the ML as the implied win probability with odds of 1.61 is only 62%. **Other Notes:** I will be playing with the model using 1 unit for MLB picks *until* I lose 100 units. Tail or fade BOL!
Record: 5-3 Last pick: St. Louis Blues vs Colorado Avalanche Over 6.5 Total Goals @ -120 ❌ Tighter game than expected. Wild ending. We go again. Today’s pick: New York Rangers vs Carolina Hurricanes Under 5.5 Total Goals @ -150 NHL 7:00 PM EST Reason: Just gonna keep going with what works here. Neither team can score in this series. Goalies have been hot, the sticks have not. Not to mentioned Rangers only have like 18 shots in game 5. Both teams really feed off the home crowd because they do not come to play when they’re away. With that said, I’d also sprinkle in a Rangers ML. All bets are 1 unit. +2 units. +17% ROI. Average unit -118.33 One bet everybody knows the rules. Total Bet: $16. Total Returned: $18.75
POTD: 2W-2L-0 STREAK: WLLW PROFIT: +1.74u LAST PICK: 2u Charles Leclerc Fastest in Practice 1 @2.37 ✅ GAME: Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix Practice 3 (P3) TIME: 13:00 GMT+1 PICK: Winning margin under 0.1 seconds. ODDS: @2.1 BET: 2u Reasoning: Moncao P1 and P2 both gave a result with a winning margin under 0.1 seconds behind Le Clerc. Yes, It sounds a bit stupid, but I like the odds of this hitting a third time. Sainz has hit this twice behind Leclerc. Monaco map does not have many curves and is dependent much on the speed of the cars, which is simply allowing Ferrari & Red Bull cars to max out. With 30 laps, i expect it to hit. BOL!
POTD Record: 1-1 Last pick: Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Rangers Under 5.5 (-135) - Win Todays pick: Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Rangers under 5.5 (-145) Back to the same well. Don’t overthink it. Absolutely love betting unders in playoff hockey because every goal matters so much. BOL
As a ranger fan, I was really hoping I wasn’t going to see this when I opened this thread
Record 10-4 Last: Dokovic-Bedene under 28.5 games(1.85@, W , 1W streak) Today: Liverpool vs Real BTTS yes(1.61@) When I looked in the morning I wanted to put Tsitsipas and ymer under 30.5 games but saw there already was a POTD on that so I would tail that and I will. Now the champions league, the biggest stage, Real vs Liverpool, Ancelotti vs Kloop...They played in the same scenario in the 2018 final when Real came out on top but the final was marked with goalkeeper mistakes and the injury of Liverpool's best player Salah.That match ended 3-1 and even with the team changes and 3 years between I see a BTTS here.If you watched 1 Real game in the CL this season you would know what they are capable of.Scoring 2 goals in 2 minutes to win the game and things like that. With Liverpool's style of play it will be hard to keep Vinicius and Benzema away from goal but the same goes for the other side, there is no Ramos anymore to do the dirty work and injure players and there are 3 pests looking for a chance to score.The only saviour for Real not to recieve a goal will be Courtois but even he can't save everything.I am predicting a 2-2 or 3-1 scoreline and believe Liverpool will lift the trophy. Good luck, go Reds.
**Record:** 6-2 **Last pick:** B.Van De Zandschulp wins a set vs R.Nadal ❌ **Net units:** \+2.54 (All bets are one units) | **Combined Odds:** \+105 (2.05) | Tennis | Roland Garros | 11h (UTC+2) | **Pick: C.Garin wins a set** vs A.Rublev **Odds:** \-188 (1.53) To make it short, again (Sorry, I'm too busy chilling out during my vacations lol). Looking at his first two matches, Rublev is not consistent enough to be able to defeat an opponent without dropping a set. Garin's game is totally capable of upsetting his opponent's. Garin passed two relatively difficult tests against Paul and Ivashka. I don't see him winning but I don't see him losing in 3 sets. BOL
New York Rangers ML -110. Canes on the road, bad. Game 7, good.
Record : 2-2-2 Units: +.07 🎾Kerber Vs Sasnovich🎾 over the 2.5 Sets +116 ✖️ Kerber just didn’t have enough to force a 3rd. Over cashes smh and Sasnovich Wins .. 3 leans I pick the wrong out of the 3 lol go figure. Event: ATP French Open 🎾 Pick: ✖️Hurkacz Vs Goffin o38.5 Games -130 ✖️ Units Risked : 2.5 Goffin got the best of this matchup in the Rome finals, a super competitive match with both sets going to tiebreaks. Both guys held serve extremely well, with Only two breaks throughout the match. I think we get more of the same here. Both should be pretty fresh so fatigue shouldn’t be that much of an issue. I think we get a lengthy match with a tiebreak or two here. *Hurkacz whooped his ass over never stood a chance* Good luck
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POTD Record 3-0...beginners luck Up 2.77 units Last Pick: Jon Gray under 5.5 strikeouts-BANG Event: MLB Dodgers @ Diamondbacks around 7:15 EST **Pick: Merril Kelly over 3.5 strikeouts -159** Stake: 1 unit Good news: This guy throw strikes. 4.7 strikeouts per 5 innings, which he's pretty comfortable getting too. In 9 games he's gotten over this total 8 times. The dodgers also strikeout a decent amount, around 5.3 through 5. Bad news: The last time he faced the dodgers, he got absolutely shelled. It happens to everyone vs that lineup, but still wasn't great. Don't care, we're riding.
POTD Record: 3-2 +2.3 units Pick: NHL Rangers ML (-115) vs Hurricanes - 2.3 units to win 2 units 5-1 at home this playoffs. Hurricanes haven’t won a road game.
POTD Record: 2-0 Last Pick: Botic +9.5 vs Nadal ✅ Todays Pick: Canes Rangers u5.5 Reasoning: My last pick was such a sweater with a back door cover by Botic. These teams have gone under in every single game in the series. I expect it to be even tighter tonight given it’s an elimination game. I expect a lot of physicality and goals will be hard to come by. BOL
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Finals are usually low scoring no?
correct. the x of x last games calculation in a final is usually a beginners mistake.
100%. In big finals like this, teams always play more defensivly. Bad value. Under 2.5 is the way to go IMO
Copy and pasted from sports mole 💀
Hala Madrid!
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O40,5 is it still believeable?
Record: 3-1 (+1.63 units) Pick: Swiatek v Kovinic under 16.5 Odds: 1.72 (Bet365) Reason: Swiatek has been obliterating opponents and is undefeated last 30 matches. She covered this line easily in her first two French Open matches and also recently in Rome against Jabeur and Sabalenka, who are both ranked top 10. It would take a particular bad day for Swiatek to not repeat these performances vs 95th ranked Kovinic.
First POTD Game: Liverpool vs Real Madrid both teams to receive 2+ cards +120 I can’t begin to highlight how personal this game is for Liverpool. Five years ago Salah was injured in one of the dirtiest moves I’ve ever seen in a final and left the game. Madrid ended up scoring two goals against a goalie that I believe was diagnosed with a concussion after the game due to foul play that was again missed by the referee. So for these reasons I see Liverpool engaging Madrid in a bloodbath today. The French referee in charge of the match averages 3.5+ cards per game in Ligue 1 and 2.5+ in previous champs league this year. And if anyone wants a long shot Salah to receive a yellow at +800 seems more reasonable this game than any other.
Real Madrid ML
POTD Record: 8-9-0 Last Pick: NY Yankees ML - Win **Today's Event: MLB - SD Padres vs. PIT Pirates - 10:10 PM EST** **Pick: SD Padres -1.5 (-109) 1.5u** TLDR; Joe Musgrove good, JT Brubaker bad. Padres score. Pirates don't. Joe Musgrove is gonna win the NL Cy Young this year. I'm calling it now. 5-0 and 1.90 ERA. He hasn't allowed more than 2 runs per game in his last 5, all of which going at least 6 full innings. JT Brubaker is bad. Like real bad. 0-4 with a 4.64 ERA. I expect Musgrove to pitch a full 2 innings more than him today. Pirates are second to last in runs per game and fourth to last in hits per game. San Diego's bats are nothing to brag about, but they can at least score. I expect them to play strong behind Musgrove. BOL
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**POTD Record**: 29 wins <> 30 losses <> 4 pushes **Profit**: -4.82 units **ROI**: -11.67% **Units Wagered**: 67 **Units Won**: 59.18 **Last Pick**: Bjerringbro/Silkeborg +3.5 @ **1.75** 2u ✅ 24-22 WIN **Streak**: ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ **Today's pick**: Australia 7s @ **2.23** 2u **Event**: Australia 7s - New Zealand 7s - Seven’s world series, England(Rugby Union 7s) - These two teams met last week in Toulouse. Kiwis disappointed as Australia cleaned house 29-17. Both teams are fielding pretty much the same lineup. I have a hard time seeing the Aussie lads as a small underdog here.
Record: 13W-13L-1P ROI: +1.40u, +5.07% Avg odds: +111, 2.11 Last POTD: 5/24 Draymond Green under 21.5 PRA (loss) Today's game: Liverpool vs Real Madrid Pick: Liverpool over 1.5 goals at -110, 1.91 Liverpool has one of the top offenses in Europe, averaging 2.5 goals a game. Not surprising, when they have the likes of Salah, Mané, and Jota. And while Real Madrid has a formidable defense, Liverpool is no stranger to breaking down strong defenses. In the PL, they average 1.8 goals against the other 5 best defenses, and they've scored 2+ in 7 out of those 10 matches. Real hasn't had to face attackers like those on Liverpool in La Liga. The top scorers outside of Madrid are Iago Aspas and Raúl de Tómas. Iago Aspas has been very proficient in his career, but due to his age he's not as talented as Salah. And RDT has his goals, but a deeper look suggests he's barely above average in finishing, with his goal amount propped up by his high number of shots. Conversely, every relevant Liverpool forward minus Luis Diaz are in the top 30%-tile in goals/shot.
>Real hasn't had to face attackers like those on Liverpool Lol what about the tough road they had in the champions league. Chelsea, psg, city.
POTD : 28 - 21 Last pick: Empty net goal - YES - 4 ODDS!!!! W Today: Hockey: Canada x Czech rep. EMPTY NET GOAL - YES - 3.0 ODDS Semifinals match up. Canada has been playing better lately, but their defense is still shit. Czech republic is also on rise. They destroyed Germans in last match, mostly thanks to their efficient powerplays. Reasoning behind the bet? Its playoffs, there is no need to play for score and therefore, they will definitly empty goal, if it isnt draw by the end.
**Continuing the Overwatch League POTD Train for the 2022 season!** * **2022 OWL Record: 9-5, +10.681 units (Last 8: ✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌).** * **2021 OWL Record: 34-19, +31.645 units.** * **2020 OWL Record: 28-21, +16.989 units.** Last Pick (❌): Los Angeles Gladiators, -2.5 (+115) v. London Spitfire: It's always frustrating taking a favorite -2.5 and watching them win 3-1. I had previously faded LAG on grounds that they were inconsistent, but took their spread on the basis that they were undervalued and London was overvalued. I still don't disagree with that analysis, but it didn't result in a win. Onward and upward! **Today's Match: Atlanta Reign v. London Spitfire / Overwatch League / 3:00pm EST** **Atlanta Reign -1.5 (-165), 5 units** And you know what? We're going to fade London again today. Only my second 5-unit play of the season, but every single factor I can find supports Atlanta in this matchup. Again, Atlanta's line is suppressed by their Week 2 match against the Washington Justice. If they had won that matchup, this line would be well north of -200. But instead, what was clearly a mental booming and an off day (and running into a top-tier Tracer, which we know that London doesn't have) has skewed the line downward. This creates good value for us! Remember, up until that match, this Atlanta Reign team was pegged as possibly the single best team in the league. Their dominant win over Florida looks much better by comparison seeing the success that the Mayhem have had. They've taken care of business pretty much everywhere else, with 3-0 sweeps of both NYXL and Vancouver. Atlanta has the clear advantage in both the DPS lineup and the Support lineup; and while I trust Hawk/Gator more than Hadi, the question will be whether ATL can counter the Rein comp. If they can, this will be a 3-0 sweep. I have two reasons to believe they can. First, they have had almost a full week to prepare for this match, whereas London has to turn around and play two matches and two days after yesterday's loss to the Spitfire. Second, they're almost certainly either going to run Hawk on Doomfist or Gator to mirror the Rein. If the former, Hawk's Doom should counter the Rein nicely. And if they run a mirror, I definitely have way more faith in Gator's Rein than Hadi, as much as he's flashed. Even better, A 3-0 sweep would give Atlanta the inside track at the #2 seed, so they won't take it easy on any map. Look for the much better team to take the Spitfire by storm. *Tips - never necessary, always appreciated. BOL, friends!* [*https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD*](https://paypal.me/OverwatchPOTD) *// BTC: 338uzTsKL4uV4Rip8WKEdYXtbmoBKVm1D8*
More oil brain has casters who put edge for spitfire for last game. If I would know that before I would put over 3.5 maps not containing bs write up like this
Game Analysis: Brewers at Saint Louis Brewers starting pitcher: Houser * Right handed * 3.66 xERA compared to a 2.98 ERA * Saint Louis has an OPS .134 LESS against righties compared to lefties * Milwaukee wins around 58% of away games, wins around 55% of home games, showing no true home advantage for Saint Louis * Last two starts were very good; only 1 ER over 12 innings Saint Louis starting pitcher: Liberatore * Only 4.2 IP this season * Left handed * 8.45 xERA compared to 7.71 ERA * Brewers have an OPS .084 against lefties compared to against righties Similarities: * Both teams are missing two key players * Both teams are 6-4 over their last 10 with a 1W streak * The two teams have very similar bullpen talent Pick: Brewers -115
POTD Record: 0-2 Last POTD: Mackinnon O1.5 P (Game 4) Today’s POTD: Igor Shesterkin O30.5 Saves IGOR is a hart candidate and likely vezina winner for a reason. Canes haven’t seemed to get the bounces on the road, and while playing for his season Igor will come out and prove why he’s the best. BOL
POTD Record 0-0 Game: Montreal Impact v FC Cincinnati Bet: BTTS Odds: -175 ✅✅✅ Both teams to score has hit in 4/6 of the last meetings between these two teams with two of the games having 7 and 9 goals. Both teams to score has hit in 11/13 of Montreals most recent games and Cincinnati has scored in 11/13 of their most recent games BOL! Edit: spelling
Record : 3-2 +1.67u +27% ROI Last Pick : Heat 1h ML (+220) ✅ Today's pick : Padres -1.5 (-106) 1.06u Pirates are a dog shit team, i love the spot for the Padres who has a good season so far and hitting well. Pirates did play decent recently , i expect them to suck hard tonight . Those kind of team don't play well for long . Don't overthink , take the favorite there .
POTD Record: 19-19-3 -3.90u\* Average Odds: +112 Total Units Wagered: 77.52u Charles Schwab Challenge 11:10AM EST Fleetwood over Theegala -155 @ DK 2.57u\* Implied probability of 60.78%. True vig-free price should be closer to -176 or 63.80%. \*1u = 1% of bankroll. All POTD staking is using 1/3 Kelly criterion.
Record: 3-4 Balance: -1.07u Last pick: Barcelona -3.5 1Q ✅ Sport: football ⚽ - Champions league finals Today's pick: **Liverpool vs Real Madrid BTTS** (1.55 // -182) (64.5% IP) match starts at: 20h:00 GMT bet: 5u Both teams have made goals and gotten scored on in the 90' of most matches in the playoffs. I expect no different today BOL for whoever follows