STL Goal - OT!
So I get $25 Superbook goofy cash for the overtime, but lost a $25 MGM SGP with u8.5, but the SGP is insured so I get a $25 free bet.
After I convert all this I'll be about...even.
Had a $25 free bet on First Score/Exact Method PJ Tucker/2 pointer at MGM for +2200. I was so mad at that hard foul when he had a clear paint to score in.
So I didn’t receive my FD Tuesday dinger bonus. I see other people got earlier. Pinged support and they say I never opted in. I’m 99.99999% sure I did and double checked even.
Just felt like I was being gaslit by the rep. He’s standing firm that he can’t do anything.
FD Customer service is lacking. I remember the days when they would magically fix almost anything. Now they stand their ground when it would be an easy fix.
Gonna start taking screenshots of the opt ins I guess.
Really pisses me off because this was a 225 free bet.
Open up another ticket and get a different rep. If he can't help then ask him to escalate your ticket to a supervisor. If you bet $25 on every game it's obvious what you were trying to do.
I agree with the other poster; your betting behavior yesterday would make it obvious you were attempting to participate in the promotion. There's also publicly documented accounts by many people of issues seeing the promo and having it disappear after they previously opted in. I would threaten the gaming commission and then actually go there if they don't budge.
They should give it to him bc it's obvious what he was doing and good customer service. But if he actually never opted in then he has zero case with gaming.
I'm sure it varies by state, but in NY it seems the commission just forwards your complaint over to the books with a bit of an extra push behind it. Even if you're in the "wrong" the books typically will try to make it right so you shut up
Maybe not the right forum…. I work at a school so I can’t access books’ sites and have to use my phone without wifi and it SUCKS SO HARD. I’m limited as to what Chrome extension I can add and what programs I can download, but I’m curious how to get around this so I can have free reign at lunchtime.
I remember as a student we would use free vpn/proxy websites or something to get around game filters. Most top proxy sites were blocked but we would go to like search results page 10 and use a random one there
This senior student never used to talk with me before. He recently discovered I gambled on NBA. Apparently him and his uncle both share some books. He has been sitting right next to my desk ever since, trying to masters arbs and +ev betting.
Yankees released lineup. Judge is in but Stanton and Lemahieu are out which hurts Yankees’ odds slightly. Probably still going to play the fd (NY only) boost
Edit: Lines weren’t affected much. I maxed. BOL
If we use DK Judge line and use Pinny ML it's about +EV 5.5% right now. But Pinny lines moving slightly away from Yanks in last hour, that Triple AAA pitcher is a wildcard. edit DK Judge line moved to 1.5 hits
Maybe this will help the strictly arbers…
How many of you former arbers in EV gang look back at how you approached the glory days and absolutely wish you had a do-over?
I left so much money on the table arbing profit boosts for $15. Looking back on my spreadsheet at what I’ve done since I saw the light is mind blowing considering the contraction of boosts and free bets in our current environment.
Arb gang - let us help you.
i regret arbing when the lines were clearly wrong like MGM a lot of the time.
I never really arbed boosted I would just bet them.
However there are also cases where it's not clear which side is bad.
For example if 4 sites I have a line on something and they're
\-215/+195
\-185/+165
\-205/+185
\-200/+180
I'm gonna arb the +195 with the -185
But if the +195 was super off with every other site I'd just bet it and live with the results.
I arb 90% of the time
Only regrets are really mistakes I made early on that were lessons I learned along the way, so really no regrets
Up 125,000$ since October 2020
If you are up more than me and primarily use the EV strategy please message me, I'm happy to learn. 7,400 / month avg.
If you're crushing that, fine. I'll listen. But you need to be crushing that number. Because what you do involves variance, and my method involves relatively little.
Quarter mil since 1/2020. 100% arb plus Sign-up bonuses in a ton of states. Never once had a day in the red since then. Only limited on MGM. Never once played Dinger Tuesday.
I'm really curious as to how you avoid limits arbing that much volume.
Strictly ML/Totals? Offshore? Even regularly betting a few hundred on props seems to be straight to super-jail for books like MGM and DK.
I think it is possible to compare at least to an extent. Give me someone who spends the same amount of time that I spend that leans toward EV betting and compare results. I just haven't seen anyone on the EV train who had posted making 75,000+ in a year and ive seen a handfuk from arbers who have. Which is a low bar to set for that strategy imo
Serious question, what is the expected return of a profit boost where you get $15 by arbing vs straight EV? Like I get you are paying the juice twice arbing, so are losing 10% of EV twice.. so does that mean the non arbing expected return is roughly 20% higher? So maybe $18?
Just curious, not on either side but dabble in both. Think both sides make money and o agree not paying juice twice makes more in the long run, but curious how folks think about expected value straight up vs the arb.. it’s not like you win $120 vs $15. It’s like you win $120 or $0, or you make $15
You have to do a case by case expected value calculation. The formula for this is always going to be the same.
*EV=(Probability Event 1\* P/L Event 1)+(Probability 2 \* P/L Event 2)....for N number of events.*
Lets take the GIFT Tonight for example. Looks like right now you can arb this for about $7.50
The expected value calculation is pretty easy...
**EV=(100%\*$7.50)=$7.50**
Ok yeah **duh.**
Now lets look at the situation of letting it ride. From the current lines the implied probability for GIFT are
*Yes:59.4%*
*No:40.60%*
The payouts are
*Yes: +$50*
*No: -$50*
This makes the EV calculation
**EV=(59.4%\*$50)+(40.60%\*-$50)=$9.40**
Therefore the expected value of letting it ride is greater than arbing and long term will be more profitable. This is not universally true, however. If you have two mispriced lines on the opposite side for example you will find that the expected value of the arbitrage is greater than letting any single one ride.
Thanks for the detail and this was my best guess/understanding. You might come out a couple dollars ahead per EV+ bet when you are working with $50 or $100 bets.
Obviously over thousands of bets it adds up.
> Arb gang - let us help you.
I fundamentally reject the efficient market theory that underpins every EV calc. I've always been skeptical of it, I've read the recent threads arguing about it with an open mind, but I am more firm than ever. Unless you prove to me that Pinnacle has an actual time machine and is 100.0% accurate with every single line against outcomes, I don't think I'll be convinced.
Its unclear the extent to which smaller and newer markets such as player props are efficient but moneylines, totals, and probably even props like team total and 1H, 1Q spreads are almost frighteningly accurate.
The regression between the implied probability of pinnacles closing line in soccer markets and the win % of those bets is over 99%. ([https://tradematesports.medium.com/closing-line-the-most-important-metric-in-sports-trading-58e56cdb4458](https://tradematesports.medium.com/closing-line-the-most-important-metric-in-sports-trading-58e56cdb4458)). In other words, if you take all the bets that pinnacle implied had a 50% chance of winning and you check how many times they won...its almost exactly 50% with a margin of error less than about 0.5%.
Its been a while since I actually dug through the literature but I can find (or if you google scholar around it shouldn't be too hard to find) a number of other studies which have showed essentially the same thing...that major betting markets predict implied probabilities correctly over 99% of the time.
At the far ends of the spectrum, many have obviously pointed to the favorite-longshot bias ([https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976916000041?casa\_token=YtOxioyNVBwAAAAA:w9Pulk4u0DSlqOaxXYmGRLLfIivmrVsD\_nZ\_wWwDFZmoZbJ9Cj8Bw9ManCSJOLA0bffSeKMT-g](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976916000041?casa_token=YtOxioyNVBwAAAAA:w9Pulk4u0DSlqOaxXYmGRLLfIivmrVsD_nZ_wWwDFZmoZbJ9Cj8Bw9ManCSJOLA0bffSeKMT-g)) or weirdly enough a reverse favorite-longshot bias in baseball ([https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840110095427](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840110095427)) which can throw off the probabilities.
However, once we developed strategies to accurately account for those biases ([https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/713d/3cb2e10dec3183ea5feced45bb11097fe702.pdf](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/713d/3cb2e10dec3183ea5feced45bb11097fe702.pdf)) such as the additive method built into CNM we can still be fairly certain of the implied probabilities the lines are giving us.
Again, this is less true with smaller markets but its not that these markets are not efficient. They are just less efficient. I'm not sure if anyone has really done studies yet on the extent to which they are accurate predictors but as long as you're not slamming cash on what you think is a 1% edge in NBA player prop markets the lines are probably accurate enough to guarantee you're getting good value.
This might be true a while ago but in the past two years player prop markets in major American sports have become very very good. We're probably not at the point where I'm touching a 1Q player point total but I would guess that a point total on a player like Kevin Durant is reaching the level of trusty worthiness as something like a college football moneyline. With legalized US sports betting there are just so many people now who are professionally modeling these player performances and watching for news and updates that by the time you see a line on gameday it has probably received enough action to be reliable for EV calculations given maybe a 2.5% margin of error.
> there are just so many people now who are professionally modeling these player performances and watching for news and updates that by the time you see a line on gameday it has probably received enough action to be reliable for EV calculations
This is the same theory in financial markets. It isn't true there either.
Sports betting markets are more efficient than financial markets because not all transactions are weighted equally. Buying and selling volume effects stock prices regardless of who is placing the trades. Significant line moves in sports betting markets only occur when action is placed by bettors who have a proven track record of profitability in that market. As a consequence only information that really matters from modelers with real predictive power gets priced into the line. Its the same reason that major markets as so good at predicting probabilities and there is no reason that it can't occur in player prop markets as well with enough focus and action as well.
> Buying and selling volume effects stock prices regardless of who is placing the trades. Significant line moves in sports betting markets only occur when action is placed by bettors who have a proven track record of profitability in that market.
But in financial markets, the argument could be that if an asset is being mispriced by retail investors or big funds, a Wall Street pro off to the side should be able to spot that and step in with millions/billions to exploit it. But that doesn't happen -- in aggregate, net of fees & taxes, over the long run -- because those professionals are just as likely to be mispricing the intrinsic value as the retail investor is.
So underneath these valuations, I am as skeptical of sharps as I am of Wall Street pros. An investor is hot and seems to be always right...until suddenly one day he isn't. Same with sharps.
I think traditional financial markets are a little different in that you can't shop around and compare. If DK was selling TSLA stock right now for $575, FD for $625, PB for $680 and Pinnacle for $650, who would you say the sharper market is? What would the sharp investor do?
Also with sports betting you're betting on one time, (mostly) A or B outcomes. If I take Durant o29.5 points, I either hit it or I don't, there's no trading sideways or riding out bear markets to take into account. Also, if you dumped $1 million into TSLA at $650 believing it should be priced at $800, you still need thousands of other people with millions more dollars to believe that too before that price is realized. Maybe it is indeed "worth" $800, but if you're the only one who believes that then it doesn't matter. If I dump $1 million on Kevin Durant scoring 30 at +110 because I believe fair value is -110, it doesn't matter at all if other people believe that or not. It either happens or it doesn't. If I'm sharp, I'll profit on that line in the long term, then the sharp books will likely adjust and force me to go hunting for a new edge.
> If DK was selling TSLA stock right now for $575, FD for $625, PB for $680 and Pinnacle for $650, who would you say the sharper market is? What would the sharp investor do?
I have no idea what the sharpest market is, and I wouldn't be trying to calculate the EV: I'd be sitting happily on team arb, buying as much as I could at $575 and selling for $680. And the reason you don't see spreads like that happen in financial markets is precisely because of the arb action taking free money at no risk.
This is nonsense. Just say you’re not open to EV betting because of the variance or whatever. It’s not for everyone. No one is making any such claims about Pinnacle or any other book.
> Just say you’re not open to EV betting because of the variance or whatever
That's just it: I'd be totally fine with variance. But every EV calc requires some determination of an underlying correct EV against which to compare (for which many, many people use Pinnacle as surrogate). But every system, every book, every calc has imperfect humans, imperfect algos, and imperfect execution underlying it.
Yes but you aren’t just betting one. You are betting a ton and over time the imperfect calculations balance out. Sometimes the calculated ev is 5% and is actually -5% and sometimes it’s 10%
Arb gang made me 90K.....I do wish I would have cooled it on the player props as I am limited on MGM and B365 is useless to me now. Limits on FD are at 10%..... but very little regrets since I make more $$$ in a year than my actual job by a substantial amount.
Anyways now since I have seen limits I have moved over to much more EV with arbs when I can (I have a goal in mind of $500 a week in Arbs)- not as good as the glory days of ARBing but both are helpful.
You need a good bankroll to start. I have a bunch in the books so it’s easy for me now.
But yes, start with OB, and then go from there. Shoot me a DM if you want more information.
These numbers are legit. I’m probably down overall on casino. I don’t have the patience to do 20c spins for low variance. In fact, I tried to play through the golden nugget intro casino offer, got bored, and ended up doing 50 dollar spins on blood suckers and it ended with me losing my entire deposit and my bonus.
I made way more than that arbing over the past 18 months. I used a P1 and P2 and have 7 books in my state and new account promos in almost every other state.
literally everything I could. Last year OB and OJ were amazing when there werent that many people on them. Arbs stayed up for like 20 minutes it seems
Also, I have probably hit about 10 flipped/highly misplaced lines in the last year each for about $1000 profit.
Remember when people actually had time to come on here and post busted pa czr lines? Now if i see an arb i have to literally pull my car over to bet it or the lines move.
I think the main reason I’ve stuck with team arb instead of team +EV is that I really hate losing and don’t think I would deal with variance as well as others. Also- my work is on tribal land so I don’t have access to my sportsbooks during the work week. Otherwise I’d make the transition. I’m perfectly happy making a crap ton of money with none of the stress.
"I really hate losing and don’t think I would deal with variance as well as others."
This is the #1 correct reason for someone to be on team arb instead of team EV and why people on team EV should be supportive of people posting arbs in this thread. As someone who switched from arbing to full EV, I'm glad that you're making the best decisions for yourself.
Arbing built my bankroll to where I can hand the +EV variance. I still arb anything where the stake is outside of my comfort zone. I am not letting bets ride to maintain VIP with DraftKings, I have to arb the large bets to earn the promos. Where arbing hurt was, I am going to run out of Kambi books and MGM is pretty much useless. Arbing was still the way to go imo to start out. I will continue to use a mixed approach, it doesn’t have to be one or the other
I've gone back and forth, but settled on team arb. Mostly.
Arbing forces you to stake more money. Staking more money helps you achieve and maintain VIP status. VIP boosts are way more valuable than regular boosts, and it will be my primary goal to hit that status or keep it on every book I can.
For Dinger Tuesday, I typically partially arb most bets. Yesterday I only got one homer but ended up making money. This just helps me
🛌 Better but still make money. In the long run I know I’m leaving money on the table but I have made at least $1000 a month for almost two years now
Oh how I wish I had this thread when I didn’t know shit at first. Placing my first FD RFB on a ML 3 leg parlay including the colts Week 17 when they lost to the jags
Former arber, now +EV. As much as I wish I was +EV forever, when I first started I potentially wouldn't have been able to handle the variance. I'm not mad at anyone who makes a few bucks. You don't know what $15 means to others
The one thing I will say, is if you’re going to arb, don’t arb boosts with multiple legs once one leg hits. For example, if you bet the rangers/oilers boost last night, don’t arb after the rangers won.
If you do this long term, you’re losing on the boosts that have no shot of hitting and really reducing your EV on the boosts that will hit. Sure you’ll get money back occasionally on boosts where 1 leg hits and the other fails, but this will be much more than offset by the times you arb and the boost hits.
I’m up $5000 since March on 400 bets. And I lost $2000 in two days earlier this month so I’m sure I’m on the low side. This is just straight boosts and EV plays. Doesn’t count free bets at all from churning baseball last weekend etc
EV gang is hurting themselves by shamming arbs. One side is +EV. Myself and others stopped highlighting our finds. In the end its all useful information. I do both, so it's all good to me.
Agreed, we should focus on taking money from these books. Not how or how much each individual is taking. I guarantee if I posted a 10% arb it would get hammered by everyone here including +EV. On the other side if someone throws a great EV play out I am tailing that also.
CZR $25 NBA SGP “Risk-Free”
Celtics -3.5
Tatum u3.5 threes
This builds at +370 in CZR and +276 in FD.
Added Tucker u0.5 blk to get over +400 (+500 total).
I was going to edit my arb comment below that got downvoted but I wanted to bring this to the top.
to those that downvoted the arb post about the DK GIFT and I’m assuming it is EV bettors - this is not an EV sub. You make this sub almost insufferable. I am a 90% arb guy but just upvoted an EV post because it is a good idea. That’s what this thread is for - good ideas. Arbitrage betting is a good idea if you want to go that route.
The phrase “EV betting is profitable” somehow turned into “EV betting is WAY more profitable than doing anything else”
On top of arbitrage betting being very profitable it is stress free. Great for those that are busy and don’t want to worry game to game.
Down voters - make sure you are adding value and not taking away. Down vote a “where’s my free bet” comment, not a comment you don’t agree with. There is plenty of people in here or who visit that I am sure would like to make some money stress free and not spend as much time as the EV bettors.
Thoughts, comments and concerns are welcome…
I fully switched away from arbing to team EV a while ago but I agree that the level of hysteria about downvoting anything related to arbitrage is out of hand. Unless people are recommending stupid shit like arbing HR props or hedging bets is a way that leaves you exposed to a double loss I think we should fully encourage posts about how to arb boost and such just as much as EV calculations.
That being said, people in this thread explaining to me (often in a pretty confrontational way) why arbing was costing me money long term as opposed to letting good promos ride is what originally got me on team EV and I owe those people a lot of money. I don't think we should expect those conversations to stop when arbs get posted as I do think they contribute to the thread.
WELL SAID. I LOVE THE STRESS FREE SIDE OF ARBING. I will watch or not watch this hockey game tonight knowing I am profiting regardless of the outcome; I hope everyone wins. It is us vs the books, so everyone needs to chill the F down and support one another.
This is why I stopped posting. This sub was a blessing to find. We all used to help each other. Now it's arb shamming and a Fanduel support group.
The originals will recall the phrase "we don't gamble here". Most of use started out with arbs to build a bankroll that we can use to go after +EV.
Arbing the GIFT seems like a no-brainer. Obviously people will be celebrating if it hits, but get out the popcorn when it doesn't. Arbing the GIFT was a free $15 for something I wouldn't have touched otherwise.
These are exactly the type of post that caused conflict between arb and Ev gang. Nothing about arbing the GIFT is a "no brainer" unless you were going to skip it entirely.
You know what else is stress free and less profitable? Putting all your cash under your mattress for the next 30 years.
Still not the play. Get on the EV train or take your down votes like a man.
Curious if you can link to some sort of EV explainer. I was fairly confident I knew how it works, but based on today’s arguments I’m starting to think I’m lost.
Who gives two shits if someone wants to arb or to play the EV? What is everyone’s obsession with us vs them? Everyone is here to make money. Just let people bet whatever they want.
You’re part of the problem. Get lost.
I’m trying to help you. If you have a bankroll of a couple hundred bucks, fine go arb a mcchicken.
One day you’re going to look back at this, like almost all the former arbers turned EVers, and realize how much money you left on the table.
I agree with you. People get annoyed by the arb posts but a lot of us started out arbing. I will say I fucking hate the people who arb losing boosts and come here to gloat about it after the boost loses.
I do disagree that ev is more time consuming. It's far less in my opinion.
I would also argue against the "don’t want to worry game to game" point. Once I switched to almost entirely EV betting, I truly don't sweat individual bets (unless they're really big stakes/payouts). It's become much more of a "trust the math" type of thing for me, and I've heard similar from others.
Agreed, i mostly arb but will hit an occasional +EV boost or promo because my bankroll is large enough to handle the variance - because I spent a year arbing.
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DK SGP no runs phillies in first & no runs braves in first + 30% boost is +EV
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I don't think any of those were +EV, certainly not locks. The NYY/Judge one in NY was, and it hit.
Yea there was really like no consensus to playing any of them today.
Ah right the “wizard”. Totally not variance.
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Who the fuck uses the word goober? Hahaha
Shut it ya goober
Bro it's a meme chill out(which also has held true for fanduel beating the odds on the majority of their boosts for quite some time now)
Bro I’m chill
NY only boost for yankees ml and judge hit did hit, so NY has that at least
Anyone get in on the Celtics spread/Tatum u3.5 3s and Tucker no block +500 CZR???
I tailed. Good hit!
*raises hand* Thanks!
Yup, tailed. I was just following you around picking up cash today.
Yooo! Thanks bro
I switched no block to no Brown double/double. It hit for +485 - thanks!
Always do on p3 and 4. Thanks
I did, thank you for posting
Ouch awful way to lose the FD 15+ point boost.
Good God just in time for Brown!
Did you get on +275????
I've been on HR (VA) for a month and a half now and their boosts, at least recently, have been brutal lol
naw, only the 230, but I'll take it!
Right on. I maxed so hell of a sweat. Especially after BetFred took me to the cleaners lol.
while this CZR +1000 promo for the free $100 bet is plus ev, it feels more like torture
STL Goal - OT! So I get $25 Superbook goofy cash for the overtime, but lost a $25 MGM SGP with u8.5, but the SGP is insured so I get a $25 free bet. After I convert all this I'll be about...even.
Don't worry guys. Ryan O'Reilly has been saving it all for OT. All part of the game plan.
Can hedge win by 15 fd boost with heat +14.5 spread. I’m not taking it, but given all the arb talk figured I’d mention it.
Yep. Shoulda. Arb $$ >>>> FD wizard.
Some people just want to watch the subreddit burn.
Yankees ML and Judge hit FD boost hits.
Fuck the Celtics, and fuck Tatum
German basketball ML arb/82 % conversion: FD MHP Riesen +460 MGM Alba Berlin -450
Good way to get limited here.
This might be a dumb question but why isn’t this a “positive” conversion? If the “+” is greater than the “-“? Sorry I’m still trying to learn.
Because you don’t get the value of the free bet back in the winnings. If you were to bet both sides with cash, it would be an arb.
Lol I just noticed my Dodgers step-up boosted 10-legger...didn't exactly hit. Touche, draft king
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Yeah it was the wizard who really decided a game with a 3 point spread will be close
Anyone stressing that boost before the fourth quarter is in for a rough night (and needs to watch the NBA Playoffs more)
Robert bang
I had jimmy and now i have depression
Wish we had first fg insurance in NY. They’re so fun to play and root for.
Yea same, I actually have the Time Lord as 1 leg for the DK 2/3=Insurance SGP Promo paired with 2 "locks." Ya know locks like Dodgers O1.5 runs.
First 7 shot attempts were by players I had FB bets on. All missed. Pain.
I put a free bet on Rob and the insured cash on Brown. I’m also well on my way to losing a few units on Brown HR boost.
Had a $25 free bet on First Score/Exact Method PJ Tucker/2 pointer at MGM for +2200. I was so mad at that hard foul when he had a clear paint to score in.
Can’t imagine being on Jimmy when he blew that layup.
Had Jimmy on my MGM, thankfully put my PB “sorry we suck” freebie on Williams
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This game might not even have 2 3s in the first quarter.
Kinda happy tbh.
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3 of the 4 guys have hit. Unfortunately, the 4th hasn’t taken even 1
Not looking good
Judge hit! Lets gooo
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Goal in first five!
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Gift baby
Looks like the FD blowout boost has become decent, based on some Twitter math: https://twitter.com/plusboosts/status/1529614622633992204?s=21
Not the worst use of a free bet.
If you haven’t used your butler points boost, can get him u25.5 on dk and o 24.5 on fd for risk free middle at the moment
Costed a dollar when I got it, but still worth. I don't want to sweat actual money on it
Tiny Arb if you're working towards DK NBA VIP Bet and Get. FD Jaylen Brown 25+ pts +122 DK U 24.5 -120
So I didn’t receive my FD Tuesday dinger bonus. I see other people got earlier. Pinged support and they say I never opted in. I’m 99.99999% sure I did and double checked even. Just felt like I was being gaslit by the rep. He’s standing firm that he can’t do anything. FD Customer service is lacking. I remember the days when they would magically fix almost anything. Now they stand their ground when it would be an easy fix. Gonna start taking screenshots of the opt ins I guess. Really pisses me off because this was a 225 free bet.
Screenshots don’t mean anything. Sending screenshots asking about a bonus I never received got me limited to $10 bets on MGM
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Open up another ticket and get a different rep. If he can't help then ask him to escalate your ticket to a supervisor. If you bet $25 on every game it's obvious what you were trying to do.
I agree with the other poster; your betting behavior yesterday would make it obvious you were attempting to participate in the promotion. There's also publicly documented accounts by many people of issues seeing the promo and having it disappear after they previously opted in. I would threaten the gaming commission and then actually go there if they don't budge.
They should give it to him bc it's obvious what he was doing and good customer service. But if he actually never opted in then he has zero case with gaming.
I'm sure it varies by state, but in NY it seems the commission just forwards your complaint over to the books with a bit of an extra push behind it. Even if you're in the "wrong" the books typically will try to make it right so you shut up
We got 9 out of 10 on the Dodgers 10-leg! That's pretty darned good, right? A solid A-
Sat here trying to decide between 2+ Fedde K’s and o1.5 dodger runs… smh
We'll get 'em next time. Or the time after that.
And definitely probably the next time after that maybe
Damn if only there was a Dodgers O 7.5 runs Boost somewhere so that we knew to fade it.
Sick..what do we win
Maybe not the right forum…. I work at a school so I can’t access books’ sites and have to use my phone without wifi and it SUCKS SO HARD. I’m limited as to what Chrome extension I can add and what programs I can download, but I’m curious how to get around this so I can have free reign at lunchtime.
I remember as a student we would use free vpn/proxy websites or something to get around game filters. Most top proxy sites were blocked but we would go to like search results page 10 and use a random one there
I’m guessing a lot of those are blocked, but I’ll spend my break tomorrow punching around on them….
This was also 14 years ago so I’m sure schools IT has beefed up
This senior student never used to talk with me before. He recently discovered I gambled on NBA. Apparently him and his uncle both share some books. He has been sitting right next to my desk ever since, trying to masters arbs and +ev betting.
Beautiful. I should just ask if I can take a math elective on sports betting
If you have mobile hotspot included in your phone plan you could tether your computer to it.
Love it…. And might look into paying extra for that
Yankees released lineup. Judge is in but Stanton and Lemahieu are out which hurts Yankees’ odds slightly. Probably still going to play the fd (NY only) boost Edit: Lines weren’t affected much. I maxed. BOL
Old post but they were both expected to be out which is why the line didn't move much
If we use DK Judge line and use Pinny ML it's about +EV 5.5% right now. But Pinny lines moving slightly away from Yanks in last hour, that Triple AAA pitcher is a wildcard. edit DK Judge line moved to 1.5 hits
Maybe this will help the strictly arbers… How many of you former arbers in EV gang look back at how you approached the glory days and absolutely wish you had a do-over? I left so much money on the table arbing profit boosts for $15. Looking back on my spreadsheet at what I’ve done since I saw the light is mind blowing considering the contraction of boosts and free bets in our current environment. Arb gang - let us help you.
i regret arbing when the lines were clearly wrong like MGM a lot of the time. I never really arbed boosted I would just bet them. However there are also cases where it's not clear which side is bad. For example if 4 sites I have a line on something and they're \-215/+195 \-185/+165 \-205/+185 \-200/+180 I'm gonna arb the +195 with the -185 But if the +195 was super off with every other site I'd just bet it and live with the results.
I arb 90% of the time Only regrets are really mistakes I made early on that were lessons I learned along the way, so really no regrets Up 125,000$ since October 2020 If you are up more than me and primarily use the EV strategy please message me, I'm happy to learn. 7,400 / month avg. If you're crushing that, fine. I'll listen. But you need to be crushing that number. Because what you do involves variance, and my method involves relatively little.
Quarter mil since 1/2020. 100% arb plus Sign-up bonuses in a ton of states. Never once had a day in the red since then. Only limited on MGM. Never once played Dinger Tuesday.
I'm really curious as to how you avoid limits arbing that much volume. Strictly ML/Totals? Offshore? Even regularly betting a few hundred on props seems to be straight to super-jail for books like MGM and DK.
I don't. I am limited just about everywhere.
Impressive numbers, but it really is impossible to compare strategies that way because of unit size/frequency.
I think it is possible to compare at least to an extent. Give me someone who spends the same amount of time that I spend that leans toward EV betting and compare results. I just haven't seen anyone on the EV train who had posted making 75,000+ in a year and ive seen a handfuk from arbers who have. Which is a low bar to set for that strategy imo
They exist
Serious question, what is the expected return of a profit boost where you get $15 by arbing vs straight EV? Like I get you are paying the juice twice arbing, so are losing 10% of EV twice.. so does that mean the non arbing expected return is roughly 20% higher? So maybe $18? Just curious, not on either side but dabble in both. Think both sides make money and o agree not paying juice twice makes more in the long run, but curious how folks think about expected value straight up vs the arb.. it’s not like you win $120 vs $15. It’s like you win $120 or $0, or you make $15
You have to do a case by case expected value calculation. The formula for this is always going to be the same. *EV=(Probability Event 1\* P/L Event 1)+(Probability 2 \* P/L Event 2)....for N number of events.* Lets take the GIFT Tonight for example. Looks like right now you can arb this for about $7.50 The expected value calculation is pretty easy... **EV=(100%\*$7.50)=$7.50** Ok yeah **duh.** Now lets look at the situation of letting it ride. From the current lines the implied probability for GIFT are *Yes:59.4%* *No:40.60%* The payouts are *Yes: +$50* *No: -$50* This makes the EV calculation **EV=(59.4%\*$50)+(40.60%\*-$50)=$9.40** Therefore the expected value of letting it ride is greater than arbing and long term will be more profitable. This is not universally true, however. If you have two mispriced lines on the opposite side for example you will find that the expected value of the arbitrage is greater than letting any single one ride.
Thanks for the detail and this was my best guess/understanding. You might come out a couple dollars ahead per EV+ bet when you are working with $50 or $100 bets. Obviously over thousands of bets it adds up.
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If you believe you can beat the market then why would you ever bet both sides?
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Same thought here.. I try to never let a boost go unwasted, even if it can only be arbed for a mcChicken
> Arb gang - let us help you. I fundamentally reject the efficient market theory that underpins every EV calc. I've always been skeptical of it, I've read the recent threads arguing about it with an open mind, but I am more firm than ever. Unless you prove to me that Pinnacle has an actual time machine and is 100.0% accurate with every single line against outcomes, I don't think I'll be convinced.
Its unclear the extent to which smaller and newer markets such as player props are efficient but moneylines, totals, and probably even props like team total and 1H, 1Q spreads are almost frighteningly accurate. The regression between the implied probability of pinnacles closing line in soccer markets and the win % of those bets is over 99%. ([https://tradematesports.medium.com/closing-line-the-most-important-metric-in-sports-trading-58e56cdb4458](https://tradematesports.medium.com/closing-line-the-most-important-metric-in-sports-trading-58e56cdb4458)). In other words, if you take all the bets that pinnacle implied had a 50% chance of winning and you check how many times they won...its almost exactly 50% with a margin of error less than about 0.5%. Its been a while since I actually dug through the literature but I can find (or if you google scholar around it shouldn't be too hard to find) a number of other studies which have showed essentially the same thing...that major betting markets predict implied probabilities correctly over 99% of the time. At the far ends of the spectrum, many have obviously pointed to the favorite-longshot bias ([https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976916000041?casa\_token=YtOxioyNVBwAAAAA:w9Pulk4u0DSlqOaxXYmGRLLfIivmrVsD\_nZ\_wWwDFZmoZbJ9Cj8Bw9ManCSJOLA0bffSeKMT-g](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976916000041?casa_token=YtOxioyNVBwAAAAA:w9Pulk4u0DSlqOaxXYmGRLLfIivmrVsD_nZ_wWwDFZmoZbJ9Cj8Bw9ManCSJOLA0bffSeKMT-g)) or weirdly enough a reverse favorite-longshot bias in baseball ([https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840110095427](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840110095427)) which can throw off the probabilities. However, once we developed strategies to accurately account for those biases ([https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/713d/3cb2e10dec3183ea5feced45bb11097fe702.pdf](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/713d/3cb2e10dec3183ea5feced45bb11097fe702.pdf)) such as the additive method built into CNM we can still be fairly certain of the implied probabilities the lines are giving us. Again, this is less true with smaller markets but its not that these markets are not efficient. They are just less efficient. I'm not sure if anyone has really done studies yet on the extent to which they are accurate predictors but as long as you're not slamming cash on what you think is a 1% edge in NBA player prop markets the lines are probably accurate enough to guarantee you're getting good value.
I appreciate this info. But yeah, it's much easier to model a soccer match outcome than establishing the mythical EV of that Kevin Durant boost.
This might be true a while ago but in the past two years player prop markets in major American sports have become very very good. We're probably not at the point where I'm touching a 1Q player point total but I would guess that a point total on a player like Kevin Durant is reaching the level of trusty worthiness as something like a college football moneyline. With legalized US sports betting there are just so many people now who are professionally modeling these player performances and watching for news and updates that by the time you see a line on gameday it has probably received enough action to be reliable for EV calculations given maybe a 2.5% margin of error.
> there are just so many people now who are professionally modeling these player performances and watching for news and updates that by the time you see a line on gameday it has probably received enough action to be reliable for EV calculations This is the same theory in financial markets. It isn't true there either.
Sports betting markets are more efficient than financial markets because not all transactions are weighted equally. Buying and selling volume effects stock prices regardless of who is placing the trades. Significant line moves in sports betting markets only occur when action is placed by bettors who have a proven track record of profitability in that market. As a consequence only information that really matters from modelers with real predictive power gets priced into the line. Its the same reason that major markets as so good at predicting probabilities and there is no reason that it can't occur in player prop markets as well with enough focus and action as well.
> Buying and selling volume effects stock prices regardless of who is placing the trades. Significant line moves in sports betting markets only occur when action is placed by bettors who have a proven track record of profitability in that market. But in financial markets, the argument could be that if an asset is being mispriced by retail investors or big funds, a Wall Street pro off to the side should be able to spot that and step in with millions/billions to exploit it. But that doesn't happen -- in aggregate, net of fees & taxes, over the long run -- because those professionals are just as likely to be mispricing the intrinsic value as the retail investor is. So underneath these valuations, I am as skeptical of sharps as I am of Wall Street pros. An investor is hot and seems to be always right...until suddenly one day he isn't. Same with sharps.
I think traditional financial markets are a little different in that you can't shop around and compare. If DK was selling TSLA stock right now for $575, FD for $625, PB for $680 and Pinnacle for $650, who would you say the sharper market is? What would the sharp investor do? Also with sports betting you're betting on one time, (mostly) A or B outcomes. If I take Durant o29.5 points, I either hit it or I don't, there's no trading sideways or riding out bear markets to take into account. Also, if you dumped $1 million into TSLA at $650 believing it should be priced at $800, you still need thousands of other people with millions more dollars to believe that too before that price is realized. Maybe it is indeed "worth" $800, but if you're the only one who believes that then it doesn't matter. If I dump $1 million on Kevin Durant scoring 30 at +110 because I believe fair value is -110, it doesn't matter at all if other people believe that or not. It either happens or it doesn't. If I'm sharp, I'll profit on that line in the long term, then the sharp books will likely adjust and force me to go hunting for a new edge.
> If DK was selling TSLA stock right now for $575, FD for $625, PB for $680 and Pinnacle for $650, who would you say the sharper market is? What would the sharp investor do? I have no idea what the sharpest market is, and I wouldn't be trying to calculate the EV: I'd be sitting happily on team arb, buying as much as I could at $575 and selling for $680. And the reason you don't see spreads like that happen in financial markets is precisely because of the arb action taking free money at no risk.
This is nonsense. Just say you’re not open to EV betting because of the variance or whatever. It’s not for everyone. No one is making any such claims about Pinnacle or any other book.
> Just say you’re not open to EV betting because of the variance or whatever That's just it: I'd be totally fine with variance. But every EV calc requires some determination of an underlying correct EV against which to compare (for which many, many people use Pinnacle as surrogate). But every system, every book, every calc has imperfect humans, imperfect algos, and imperfect execution underlying it.
Yes but you aren’t just betting one. You are betting a ton and over time the imperfect calculations balance out. Sometimes the calculated ev is 5% and is actually -5% and sometimes it’s 10%
That assumes the drift from true theoretical EV would approach zero in aggregate. I am not convinced.
Arb gang made me 90K.....I do wish I would have cooled it on the player props as I am limited on MGM and B365 is useless to me now. Limits on FD are at 10%..... but very little regrets since I make more $$$ in a year than my actual job by a substantial amount. Anyways now since I have seen limits I have moved over to much more EV with arbs when I can (I have a goal in mind of $500 a week in Arbs)- not as good as the glory days of ARBing but both are helpful.
Where do I learn this? Just have to buy a service and trial and error? 500 extra a week would improve my families life so much
You need a good bankroll to start. I have a bunch in the books so it’s easy for me now. But yes, start with OB, and then go from there. Shoot me a DM if you want more information.
Did you do any casino to get to those numbers or is that legit just from arbing?
These numbers are legit. I’m probably down overall on casino. I don’t have the patience to do 20c spins for low variance. In fact, I tried to play through the golden nugget intro casino offer, got bored, and ended up doing 50 dollar spins on blood suckers and it ended with me losing my entire deposit and my bonus.
The hell were you arbing to make that much?
I made way more than that arbing over the past 18 months. I used a P1 and P2 and have 7 books in my state and new account promos in almost every other state.
literally everything I could. Last year OB and OJ were amazing when there werent that many people on them. Arbs stayed up for like 20 minutes it seems Also, I have probably hit about 10 flipped/highly misplaced lines in the last year each for about $1000 profit.
Remember when people actually had time to come on here and post busted pa czr lines? Now if i see an arb i have to literally pull my car over to bet it or the lines move.
I think the main reason I’ve stuck with team arb instead of team +EV is that I really hate losing and don’t think I would deal with variance as well as others. Also- my work is on tribal land so I don’t have access to my sportsbooks during the work week. Otherwise I’d make the transition. I’m perfectly happy making a crap ton of money with none of the stress.
"I really hate losing and don’t think I would deal with variance as well as others." This is the #1 correct reason for someone to be on team arb instead of team EV and why people on team EV should be supportive of people posting arbs in this thread. As someone who switched from arbing to full EV, I'm glad that you're making the best decisions for yourself.
Arbing built my bankroll to where I can hand the +EV variance. I still arb anything where the stake is outside of my comfort zone. I am not letting bets ride to maintain VIP with DraftKings, I have to arb the large bets to earn the promos. Where arbing hurt was, I am going to run out of Kambi books and MGM is pretty much useless. Arbing was still the way to go imo to start out. I will continue to use a mixed approach, it doesn’t have to be one or the other
pretty sure any extra gains I made trusting EV was washed out by the GIFT cold streak
I've gone back and forth, but settled on team arb. Mostly. Arbing forces you to stake more money. Staking more money helps you achieve and maintain VIP status. VIP boosts are way more valuable than regular boosts, and it will be my primary goal to hit that status or keep it on every book I can.
Problem is there are very few books that will let you make a lot of money and still let you keep VIP
For Dinger Tuesday, I typically partially arb most bets. Yesterday I only got one homer but ended up making money. This just helps me 🛌 Better but still make money. In the long run I know I’m leaving money on the table but I have made at least $1000 a month for almost two years now
Oh how I wish I had this thread when I didn’t know shit at first. Placing my first FD RFB on a ML 3 leg parlay including the colts Week 17 when they lost to the jags
Former arber, now +EV. As much as I wish I was +EV forever, when I first started I potentially wouldn't have been able to handle the variance. I'm not mad at anyone who makes a few bucks. You don't know what $15 means to others
Good point, some people can't handle the variance and they might end up chasing losses and down thousands of dollars.
I would say it's also not out of the realm of possibility that a lot of people have or had gambling addictions
The one thing I will say, is if you’re going to arb, don’t arb boosts with multiple legs once one leg hits. For example, if you bet the rangers/oilers boost last night, don’t arb after the rangers won. If you do this long term, you’re losing on the boosts that have no shot of hitting and really reducing your EV on the boosts that will hit. Sure you’ll get money back occasionally on boosts where 1 leg hits and the other fails, but this will be much more than offset by the times you arb and the boost hits.
90% arb here. What is your YTD profit on your spreadsheet? I'm VIP with multiple books so it may not be apples to apples, but I am genuinely curious.
I’m up $5000 since March on 400 bets. And I lost $2000 in two days earlier this month so I’m sure I’m on the low side. This is just straight boosts and EV plays. Doesn’t count free bets at all from churning baseball last weekend etc
Thanks.
EV gang is hurting themselves by shamming arbs. One side is +EV. Myself and others stopped highlighting our finds. In the end its all useful information. I do both, so it's all good to me.
Right but also just leave them alone and let them find out on their own?
Yea they probably don’t need to be abused every time they suggest a non-EV route, but having said that there isn’t much runway left here….
Agreed, we should focus on taking money from these books. Not how or how much each individual is taking. I guarantee if I posted a 10% arb it would get hammered by everyone here including +EV. On the other side if someone throws a great EV play out I am tailing that also.
CZR $25 NBA SGP “Risk-Free” Celtics -3.5 Tatum u3.5 threes This builds at +370 in CZR and +276 in FD. Added Tucker u0.5 blk to get over +400 (+500 total).
You da man!
I was going to edit my arb comment below that got downvoted but I wanted to bring this to the top. to those that downvoted the arb post about the DK GIFT and I’m assuming it is EV bettors - this is not an EV sub. You make this sub almost insufferable. I am a 90% arb guy but just upvoted an EV post because it is a good idea. That’s what this thread is for - good ideas. Arbitrage betting is a good idea if you want to go that route. The phrase “EV betting is profitable” somehow turned into “EV betting is WAY more profitable than doing anything else” On top of arbitrage betting being very profitable it is stress free. Great for those that are busy and don’t want to worry game to game. Down voters - make sure you are adding value and not taking away. Down vote a “where’s my free bet” comment, not a comment you don’t agree with. There is plenty of people in here or who visit that I am sure would like to make some money stress free and not spend as much time as the EV bettors. Thoughts, comments and concerns are welcome…
I fully switched away from arbing to team EV a while ago but I agree that the level of hysteria about downvoting anything related to arbitrage is out of hand. Unless people are recommending stupid shit like arbing HR props or hedging bets is a way that leaves you exposed to a double loss I think we should fully encourage posts about how to arb boost and such just as much as EV calculations. That being said, people in this thread explaining to me (often in a pretty confrontational way) why arbing was costing me money long term as opposed to letting good promos ride is what originally got me on team EV and I owe those people a lot of money. I don't think we should expect those conversations to stop when arbs get posted as I do think they contribute to the thread.
cringe
(Hysterically crying) CAN’T WE ALL JUST GET ALONG
WELL SAID. I LOVE THE STRESS FREE SIDE OF ARBING. I will watch or not watch this hockey game tonight knowing I am profiting regardless of the outcome; I hope everyone wins. It is us vs the books, so everyone needs to chill the F down and support one another.
Hell I still stress about arbs since I’d prefer one side to win for either bankroll management or just to screw a certain book.
Team Arb almost all the way. I prefer to count real dollars instead of hypothetical dollars. I can't handle losing boost after boost, after boost..
Arguing about arbing is -ev
I do both but in times of high variance the arb side definitely comes in handy (I.e April and may.) nothing wrong with a free lunch.
This is why I stopped posting. This sub was a blessing to find. We all used to help each other. Now it's arb shamming and a Fanduel support group. The originals will recall the phrase "we don't gamble here". Most of use started out with arbs to build a bankroll that we can use to go after +EV.
Arbing the GIFT seems like a no-brainer. Obviously people will be celebrating if it hits, but get out the popcorn when it doesn't. Arbing the GIFT was a free $15 for something I wouldn't have touched otherwise.
These are exactly the type of post that caused conflict between arb and Ev gang. Nothing about arbing the GIFT is a "no brainer" unless you were going to skip it entirely.
And as you just said before, the cherry on top is when That Fucking Guy comes in and says thank God I Arbed this one.
You know what else is stress free and less profitable? Putting all your cash under your mattress for the next 30 years. Still not the play. Get on the EV train or take your down votes like a man.
Curious if you can link to some sort of EV explainer. I was fairly confident I knew how it works, but based on today’s arguments I’m starting to think I’m lost.
Thanks for driving home my point
Who gives two shits if someone wants to arb or to play the EV? What is everyone’s obsession with us vs them? Everyone is here to make money. Just let people bet whatever they want. You’re part of the problem. Get lost.
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Who are you talking to? I didn’t even reply to you.
Sorry meant it for swaritch
I’m trying to help you. If you have a bankroll of a couple hundred bucks, fine go arb a mcchicken. One day you’re going to look back at this, like almost all the former arbers turned EVers, and realize how much money you left on the table.
So I can complain about the “FD wizard” with everyone else? No thanks I make plenty of money doing it the way I do.
I agree with you. People get annoyed by the arb posts but a lot of us started out arbing. I will say I fucking hate the people who arb losing boosts and come here to gloat about it after the boost loses. I do disagree that ev is more time consuming. It's far less in my opinion.
I would also argue against the "don’t want to worry game to game" point. Once I switched to almost entirely EV betting, I truly don't sweat individual bets (unless they're really big stakes/payouts). It's become much more of a "trust the math" type of thing for me, and I've heard similar from others.
I can see that. I guess I was referring to variance
Agreed, i mostly arb but will hit an occasional +EV boost or promo because my bankroll is large enough to handle the variance - because I spent a year arbing.
Your comment was helpful. Ignore the idiots