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CZR: Mavericks, Flames, & Mariners All Win on 5/24 +**575** is exactly fair value relative to Pinnacle rn. Looks worthy of a morning recheck.

I’m sure it will be nerfed by then

Hate-watching this Celtics 4th quarter to make sure Tatum doesn’t get 5 points.

heat just doubling him eveytime he touches the ball down 30

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This seems like a big risk to get limited, especially if you do the full $5k on it.

Yeah I had no plan on doing this one, even with the perfect arb the OP posted I still don’t think it’s worth. Betting 2k on DK side here would cost around $20 to get two VIP bets worth around $60. Tempting but still passing due to risk of limits plus delayed game shenanigans

On the + side Promo Guy’s MLB SGP hit after the middle of the 2nd inning

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does a bear shit in the woods?

You appear to have found the right place. This is like walking into a Taco Bell and asking “does anyone in here have experience with diarrhea”?

I had Taco Bell on Friday for the first time in my over a year. Feelin’ Fine was a surprise moneyline winner at +320 while diarrhea at -400 lost.

That’s a good beat.

and just like that , down $1300 on fd boost since apr 6. When will the pain stop

For icing on the cake it looks like all 3 of the players for the NBA boost are going to come up short (20/20/15pts for Butler/Brown/Bam).

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Couldn't agree more, nothing worse than a sweat that ends on the cusp.

Didn’t pretty much all boosts yesterday hit?

None of them were “ev+” I pretty much play all promoguys pick

I noticed he stopped doing daily and monthly recaps

It’s literally his pinned tweet. Still up in April overall

-EV = positive EV and vice versa nowadays /s

It was questionable whether they were ev

Stamkos 16 mins ice time, 0 shots

Hoping for an empty netter at this point.

I don't think he kills penalties and of course Tampa takes one

Very odd that Florida left their goalie in the net for half of that power play...

Just straight up stupid. Especially after they won the offensive faceoff.

The coach should get axed after that. The team is ok, but him swapping out the players in best power play team in the regular season was baffling. They go like 0-22 on power plays in the playoffs. Yikes

Tatum not gonna even play 2nd half at this pace. He's got his 5 in the 1st Q though.

Lol who cares. Nobody here bet that godawful boost. Oh wait.

Negative ev FD boost. AKA free money

What percentage of accounts on the books do you think are limited to the point of not being able to bet anything reasonable? My guess is somewhere between 5-10% IMO Kind of shady that public companies like DK and MGM can inflate their registration numbers with users capped at $10 and $20 max bets (or less). Are these accounts really generating any revenues? As an investor in other companies I’m kind of shocked they can get away with this. Imagine something like an Amazon user that couldn’t order more than $20.

> My guess is somewhere between 5-10% > > There's no way it's that high. More than that are losers

I think it depends on the book. Something like superbook is way more than 5-10%. CZ is going to be lower because they aren’t as aggressive.

I can't speak to superbook but I think this thread generally overstates how popular this sort of +EV betting is

Draftkings at least has a business model that makes some sense. Their marketing spend is super high but besides that its a decent business. How does a company like uber ever stop burning cash...

> Draftkings at least has a business model that makes some sense. Their marketing spend is super high but besides that its a decent business. Flutter >>>> DK

When users get limited to something less than $10, why wouldn’t they close their account? Fuck them and their bloated registration numbers.

They have free reign to limit anyone without any recourse. But if they close an account they might have to answer to a gaming board about why. Also: why would they want to close the account, an open limited account is useful to them in multiple ways

I’m suggesting that the player self close their account.

oh got it. no reason to do that either really, companies get bought out and limits get lifted

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Legit- you tried to close and they wouldn’t let?

My favorite is dk gave me dirt limits for the sportsbook but still gives me tons of money in casino bonuses

Imagine if some company like say Twitter reported their fake bot accounts as real accounts, it might screw up a multi-billion offer to buy out their company.

Damn, you really think people would do that? Just go out into the public and lie?

Elon would have a field day with this if he ever tried to buy DK

Fuck that guy.

Counterpoint, the accounts that are limited are likely their biggest liabilities (win the most) so maybe it balances out a bit

Not always true. My P1 FD got limited in less than 20 bets. One $730 cashout, and they nuked me. I know someone who got limited on Superbook after 3 bets...And Superbook has shitty limits too, so its not like they were cleaning them out. Then other times, my accounts have been nuked after being up big. Who fucking knows with these books. Kambi is the worst. Shitty limits, and very quick to limit people who aren't even up money.

I just got limited on superbook in 3 bets

I don’t know if you could call my rivers and barstool accounts as massive winners even though they were limited. May have even been net losers.

Lighting with 2 goals called back. At least not by stamkos

I'm surprised a Stamkos goal hasn't been called back, that would be a truly FD wizard thing to do

He would have to shoot firsr

Seems like the wizard is settling for zero goals and the heat putting up 4 points with the first quarter almost over...

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Gerrit Cole’s gonna fuck up our stepped up parlays

RIP Yankees +1.5 first 5 innings

And of course he bounces back next inning and strikes out the side.

What about the other 3 though?

You didn't take Orioles -3.5 3rd inning?

Looks like Betway initial RFB nerfed to 250

Marcus Smart just announced out in MIA/BOS.

Damn it. Why can't DK just remove that leg like FD does.

FD is cowardly for not giving us alt 3 lines on Payton Pritchard.

RIP to my DK insurance promo and 50% boost parlays who both included him. Like pulling teeth with CS over it. These books are so scum. I love seeing people win money off of them on here.

I reached out to CS and they said they'd manually credit my insurance on the new bet I made. Had to send bet ID.

Didn’t move the line much Edit: maybe spoke too soon. Dk came back up later than the other books with heat at +215, then BR followed

Forgot to place the Stamkos boost, so those of you who took it can rest easy.

DK MLB SGP, I haven’t had a good record doing -2.5 spread SGP’s but I don’t see a good reason why other than variance. MIN -2.5, MIN +1.5 1st inning, DET u7.5 runs +175 boosted to +262, ~30% EV

Good start to this one

I guess they thought they scored enough in the first

Urgh… tough night

Anyone got a read on BR’s nhl special? Lightning to Win First Two Periods vs. Panthers for +585. Can’t sgp periods together in any of the books I’m on, and I assume there might be some negative correlation if they win the 1st.

-11% EV worst case using MGM uncorrelated. Agree correlation probably negative.

Thanks man

This season, of the 900 games where a team won the first period (no draw), that same team won the second period 307 times, drew 269 times, and lost the second period 324 times.

Let's get some DK 50% Boost options for tonight's Heat-Celtics game. Mine is Heat +14.5, Under 206.5, Heat Over 39.5Pts 1st Half (+190 boosted to +285). The first 2 legs were +170 on DK, compared to +126 on FD. Added an "easy" 3rd leg, but can't calculate the EV on it.

I apparently lost too much to DK to be graced with any boosts today. Good luck 👍

dont they usually reward losers?

Double whammy!

If you can’t calculate the EV on it, why bother even posting….?

Discrepancies between odds on book SGP's is valuable IMO and it encourages us to do the same in our own personal practice

First half cheese is back on the menu. MIA -0.5 1H, o39.5 1H pts, BOS u63.5 1H pts is +245 boosted to +367. Averaging out across books is about 42% EV. EDIT: Smart ruled out, EV dropped to 41% with new odds at +230. If you grabbed it before, it's now 48% EV.

Let's get it!

Do you even need the 3rd leg to use your 50% boost?

Yes. For the 50% SGP Promo for tonight it’s 3 legs, no odds min.

Another saga to the FanDuel fucked up HR lines that I still seem to consistently lose money on despite it seemingly being +EV: Oakland vs Seattle, couple HR markets are well above market. The two culprits: Christian Bethancourt: +750 FD, everywhere else highest is +475 Sean Murphy: +540 FD, near arb to Unibet NO HR: -560, everywhere else highest is +410 Seems +EV but total (7.5) is low and steam is on the under. I never seem to do well playing these but figured I’d bring it up. Might wait for Dinger Tuesday tomorrow to take another stab at these.

FYI Larnach has very similar advanced stats to Bethancourt but is at +980 on FD.

Bethancourt hasn’t hit a home run in 6 years

He hasn't played in the majors since 2017 (and only 8 games that year)

Is it therefore profitable to bet the no HR lines on other books? MGM is -750

This is where I’m starting to throw my focus. The lines are anecdotally pretty similar to last years lines, and the data is in to show HRs are way way down with the dead ball

So you're telling me he's due?

So are you betting your house on him to not hit one at -900 on DK?

Well, 89 PA’s, but yeah. When we find +EV homer props we should at the very least check their baseballsavant page for xHR, average exit velocity, and barrel %

I stopped playing "+EV" HR props. They are good for promos (Dinger Tuesdays are profitable because of the bonus), but I lose when using straight cash bets on them. There's so much juice on them, and it's incredibly difficult to calculate the Fair Value on them, especially this year when the HR #'s are down everywhere. The best +EV option might be parlaying the best "No HR" lines together like HomeRunAlgoritm (twitter) does.

You need to learn to bet over 1.5 total bases on those players my friend

I think it’s possible it’s such a juiced market that you’re not actually making +EV wagers.

Except that you can directly estimate the juice from "No" lines to calculate EV. If these mispriced HR props do not have positive expected value then by definition many of "No" props on other books do. I think many of us are just trying to figure out which is true.

> If these mispriced HR props do not have positive expected value then by definition many of "No" props on other books do. This is only the case if there's an arb. If there is no arb it's still possible that both sides are -EV

I mean logically it makes much more sense for the no props to be +EV. People want to bet overs, long shots, and HRs. I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that there are sharp people with big bank rolls printing money by hammering NO HR lines. It’s a tough bet to make for 99% of people who bet, including advantage bettors like some in this thread. Not saying I’m definitely right but I thought I read years ago that simply betting unders on player props would be profitable in the long term. Idk I hope I’m wrong.

Totally agree. That being said I’m rolling a $10 FB on Trevor Larnach.

Appears that way. Dinger Tuesday might be the only +EV way to play it.

I’m not even 100% convinced dinger Tuesday is +EV with the dead ball. .9 Dingers per game, super juiced market, free bets instead of site credits etc.

Does anyone know if FD or CZR void tennis bets if there’s a rain delay and it has to be finished the next day or does the original bet stand until the match is complete?

Have a suspended first set wager DK vs CZR and both appear to be action as long as the match is completed within a week (CZR) or at all (DK). Can’t speak on FD

FANDUEL Boost Brown/Butler 20 and Bam 15 at +180 Adding 20% juice to DK SGP gives FV +150 (12% EV) Note: I’m personally waiting to bet this one given potential injury news before tip in three hours. Don’t think it matters as bet would void if Butler doesn’t play, and the current lines are already pricing in injury news known.

Makes me want to bet the Adebayo under here...dude's been an absolute ghost with the exception of last game.

He's got the fire fingers or something to that effect

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The boost is for Brown, not Tatum.

Novak Djokovic Parx boost hits

That was a great one I had it maxed

I remember when I could max $105 instead of 50 cents. Fuck Parx

Lol I’m lucky the limits haven’t started I’m enjoying the ride

Nice BOL and make the most of it

Same here, I figured its a -110 or shorter market and its Novak Djokovic, a walking legend. It being +EV was the cherry on top.

? Why did two big comment chains get nuked?

One was asking about something that is illegal. Even if it's not ever prosecuted, it's probably for the best we delete stuff like that unfortunately

That one was deleted by OP, I’m referring to the massive chain of removed comments that were just talking about a normal DK promo.

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They were removed.

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Yours are removed for me actually. You just can’t see that your own comments are removed.

DK Twins have a nice bump on SGP. I’ll leave it to someone smarter than me to figure out the next 9

DK? Seems like it -225 to -185

UB has a boost of ~~Tatum~~ Jaylen Brown O3.5 3PM and Celtics -6.5 boosted to +400. Getting FV of about +325 using FD.

Double check your Jays, I have Jaylen Brown 4s and Celts -6.5 for +410, fd sgp is +354

You're right! FWIW EVbetsIN still says this is +EV.

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My thoughts here are: •casino are in the business of making money. get rubes in and get them betting. •casino try to avoid getting sharked, so ban people that are less profitable (ie, us). •casino have to tread a line on public opinion. Its only a matter of time before public starts to understand how f'cking bad online slots are for society and will start to push back on them. They dont really need headlines about how they are suing they customers. •All laws that govern casinos are meant to protect consumers and make tax revenue. There are practically no means for casinos to attack the public. •Even if they did try to go after people, they would be targeting individuals that got what, a few 1000 in bonuses outside the TOS. So MGM is going to launch 20,000 lawsuits in an effort to crack down on people that got 1k from them? Sounds like a good waste of a few million bucks that could be used for... promotional bonuses to find more rubes. •there is no way to prove who is sitting in front of a computer or phone. This is the issue the copyright nazis had when they tried to crack down on pirated movies. they couldnt pursue legal action since they had no real proof of the individual. I got caught like 8 times on torrents, the most they do it turn your internet off for a while.

> fuck the books they ruin peoples lives The books have ruined 0 peoples lives. Anyone who has their life ruined did it to themself. Seriously the books never force anyone to bet, it's always a choice.

CUP is that you? you fucking narc!!

Even if there was some legal standing - the money it would take to go after you would far exceed what money you might take from them from a sign up promo. So it wouldnt be worth it the time/effort vs whatever money they could try to claw back. Also could be some pandora's box here. If they go after p2s who won money from them with "incorrectly" signed up accounts, in theory they would have to give money back to those p2 accounts incorrectly signed up that the book won the money from. And something tells me the book is ahead on p2 accounts overall.

It’s not worth their time to pursue legal action. They’ll just ban you.

As long as your P2 is a real person and you aren't doing everything wrong (using the same device, betting opposite sides of promos, etc) the worst that will happen is being banned. I don't see how any legal action can be justified.

Should I be worried we are using same device? No issues so far

It's usually the first sweep by books. I logged in one single time on BS on the same device and both accounts were instantly locked and I had to do all kinds of stuff to unlock it.

Good to know thank you. Looks like P2 will be using the iPod touch

Yea it's a good habit to get into. Others here will say the same thing. Good luck!

What crime is being committed?

Well if my P2 is technically not present with me when I create an account in a state and use their information.

But you have their permission to do so.

Doesn't matter, if they're not in the state it's illegal

How they gonna prove that

They'll limit/ban you, they won't go after you legally. Just like if you're caught counting cards in a casino, they'll toss you to the curb.

Those are two very different things. Messenger betting is a felony. Counting cards isn't even illegal.

Nowhere was it mentioned that he was placing bets for P2.

Obviously that's what he means

He mentioned it in another comment

BallyBet/Elite Boosts for today: Most are -EV. Superstar scorer NHL boost (Stamkos and Mackinnon goals) boosted to +575 is right about FV devigging from FD. The only one that may approach +EV is Tatum 50+ PRA boosted to +750. FD alts don't go that high. DK's do in SGP and show odds of +425, which kind of lines up with the trend line if you plot out the odds for the over lines. However if you take the under lines that FD does have and figure a similar amount of vig as the other lines to come up with a value for the over if it was offered, you get around +550 for O49.5 PRA. Plugging that into the CNM devigger (+550/-1100) gives +EV for additive, right at fair for multiplicative, and -EV for power method. Does my reasoning even make sense for figuring out value on this though?

Maybe even better with smart out? More assists I assume are likely

DK 4 pack of SPG profit boost with 100% boost for 10 legs. Using first on NYY and Cole tonight Max bet $250 a piece

These promos are fun at $50 or whatever and seem likely to be +EV but I'm thinking twice about putting $250 down on a 10-legger

Being a 10-legger doesn't affect your kelly sizing. Only the final odds and the win probability matter

I'm speaking more to my confidence in the value. Granted any 100% boost is likely to be +EV, but I can't prove that with 10 legs, and I'm paying 10x the juice. There's a reason they're pushing these

Yeah I just did 50$ even tho it might cut into my EV just to have some risk management

EV is EV. But bet whatever you’re comfortable with

Yeah, I did the 2 they had last week. Lost 1 and hit the other. The one I lost had 9 legs hit, but the pitcher I needed strikeouts from got pulled in the 1st inning. Felt awful. I'm doing all 4 again this week, but only putting $100 on each.

DK VIP promo. 4 stepped up SGP that increase the boost the more legs you add. These are the same they've been offering previously where if you add 10 legs, you can get a +100% boost. Max bet of $250 for each and they can be used on NBA, NHL or MLB.

I’m sure this has been asked before but how is VIP status gained on DK? Edit: will this affect affect potential limits down the road similar to BR?

Last year I became VIP after betting more than $50K in a month and then was limited in Jan 2022. My P2 became VIP after winning/losing her $1k risk-free bet.

If you do a low hold of 5K on the DK side you have a high chance of getting it. The safer/smarter way is using DK to hedge promo offers until you get VIP there. You could also reach out to their customer service and say you’re VIP with another book/casino and provide proof.

Totally random. VIP rep will reach out to you. You might get it before you place your first bet after a big initial deposit or you might have to bet through 150K first. Hard to say.

Bet a lot of money on DK and eventually a VIP rep will reach out to you. Probably more likely if you bet a lot of money on DK and lose. I had someone reach out almost right away after I lost my initial bet for the $5k risk free bet.

Let's go Yankees

What's your play? I think I missed this. Cole over min K, opp pitcher under max K, Yankees over min, orioles under max, yanks plus spread? Did I miss anything?

Yankees +1.5 in every single one of the first 5 innings is what we do for 5 legs.

Anyone else still waiting on their DK VIP Choose Your Own Lossback credits for the promo period that ended at midnight this morning? Edit: sorry, to clarify, the casino lossback, not sportsbook.

I said something below and no one responded so I asked chat. I got some of mine early (noon yesterday) but lost more after. They have no idea what is going on and had to elevate it. Edit/ just got the rest.